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Partner:

With US retailers raising import forecasts and inbound cargo volumes, pricing power is beginning to return to ocean carriers.  Imports alone, however, aren’t enough to jumpstart US freight demand and pull surface transportation providers out of a two-year slump. Despite some green shoots in manufacturing, the US freight economy outlook for the second half of 2024 is still cloudy, with any improvement likely to be gradual. That means shippers will have another year of pricing power over North American trucking and intermodal rail. On the ocean, however, the tide has shifted after a decline in volumes and crashing prices that fell from unprecedented heights early in the pandemic. It’s unclear, however, whether first-half increases will have second half staying power.  This webcast, featuring several Journal of Commerce senior editorial members, will examine the impact that economic-, geopolitical-, and supply chain-related events have had on importers and exporters, and how that has played out in terms of containerized shipping volumes, as reflected by the Journal of Commerce rankings of Top 100 Importers and Exporters for 2023. It also will include discussion about the dynamics shaping several import and export segments, from consumer goods and electronics to ag products and resins.

Moderator:

Eric Johnson, Senior Editor-Technology, Journal of Commerce by S&P Global

Speaker(s):

Michael Angell, Senior Editor-Northeast and Gulf Coast Ports, Journal of Commerce by S&P Global

Ari Ashe, Senior Editor-Intermodal and South Atlantic Ports, Journal of Commerce by S&P Global

Bill Mongelluzzo, Senior Editor-West Coast, Journal of Commerce by S&P Global

Mark Szakonyi, Executive Editor, Journal of Commerce by S&P Global

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Partner:

The Canadian economy is surprising economists, spurring S&P Global to upgrade its GDP outlook for this year to 1.7% on the back of stronger-than-expected exports and imports at the start of 2024. Rising Asian imports reflect a normalizing container shipping market, although port fluidity hinges on railcar supply and labor peace amid Montreal longshore contact negotiations. At the same time, legislation that would prevent railroads and ports to replace workers during a strike or lockout is gathering apace, the opposite of what the industry is seeking after a two-week-long strike closed British Columbia ports last year. This webcast will offer a broad Canadian economic outlook and implications for trade, followed by the highlighting of major freight developments and supply chain challenges ahead.

Moderator:

Mark Szakonyi, Executive Editor, Journal of Commerce by S&P Global

Speaker(s):

Arlene Kish, Director-Canada Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence 

Julia E. Kuzeljevich Director, Policy and Regulatory Affairs, CIFFA Corp.

Brian Martin, President and Principal Consultant, BrightChain Consulting

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The Red Sea attacks that forced ocean carriers to divert Asia-to-North Europe and Mediterranean services around the southern tip of Africa allowed container shipping to address its two main challenges heading into 2024: overcapacity and low-rate levels. Carriers will take delivery of nearly 2 million TEU of new capacity this year, a significant portion of which will be mega-ships that can only be deployed on the trades between Asia and Europe. While BIMCO estimates the Africa diversions are absorbing up to 9.5% of the excess capacity as carriers add ships to loops to maintain weekly schedules, economic growth in the Eurozone is forecast to be just 0.9% this year, only a slight improvement from 0.5% growth in 2023. Average spot rates from Asia to North Europe were less than $1,000 per TEU in late November 2023 but quickly rose when the Red Sea attacks began, peaking in mid-January at more than $5,000 per TEU before falling sharply. By early April, spot rates had lost more than a third of the gains made since December. Asia-Europe supply chains now have settled into the longer voyages with the Africa diversions expected to remain at least through the peak season. But the underlying challenges of overcapacity and downward rate pressure are reasserting themselves on the market. There is more than enough available capacity to cover the demand this year, even with the Red Sea crisis, and as soon as transits via the Suez Canal resume, rates will almost certainly collapse.

This webcast, led by Europe editor Greg Knowler will analyze these factors and more that will determine the course of the Asia-Europe trade this year.

Moderator:

Greg Knowler, Europe Editor, Journal of Commerce by S&P Global

Speaker(s):

Jochen Gutschmidt, Senior Advisor-Inland Supply Chain and Logistics, Lidl

Marc Meier, Managing Director Air & Sea Logistics EMEA, DACHSER

Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO

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Partner:

The two largest sectors of the for-hire US trucking industry took different routes in the first quarter, with less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers speeding down the high road and large truckload carriers stuck on a muddy low road. LTL providers exited the freight recession in late 2023 as they gained revenue, freight and terminal capacity from bankrupt Yellow, enabling them to raise pricing. Truckload companies are still struggling with excess capacity and face shipper demand for further rate cuts. Private shipper-owned fleets may be eating into their business as well. Where and when might a spark reignite even slower growth in demand for surface freight transportation? How should shippers think about opportunities in the current freight market? Our panelists will discuss these and other questions as we try to gauge trucking expectations for the remainder of 2024.

Moderator:

William Cassidy, Senior Editor, Trucking and Domestic Transportation, Journal of Commerce by S&P Global

Speaker(s):

Dean Croke, Principal Analyst, DAT Freight & Analytics 

Kevin Day, President of LTL, AFS Logistics

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Geopolitical confusion, supply chain snarls, and procurement challenges are complicating decision making and problem solving across the shipping spectrum, not least for project and breakbulk cargo shippers slammed with work and frustrated by seemingly endless turmoil. war risk in the red sea, congestion in the Panama Canal, the unresolved Russian invasion of Ukraine, wobbly geopolitical relationships, fractured supply chains: what should the breakbulk and project cargo logistics community expect in this chaotic environment? Laurence Allan, director of research, country risk analysis, and forecasting at S&P Global, leads the country risk regional team for Europe/cis and directs analysis and forecasting of political and violent risks, including their impacts on the business environment. in this preview of his breakbulk24 keynote, Allan will share his view of top-line risks and what can be expected in the weeks and months to come. this webcast will also introduce an innovative breakbulk academy session that will take place concurrently with the traditional conference program during breakbulk24. this interactive, two-part session, titled “managing a heavy-lift shipment from design to delivery,” is aimed at industry newcomers and early-career logistics managers. it will take audience members through the complexities of designing, planning, and transporting out-of-gauge project cargo – with a few challenges thrown in along the way. the session is being developed by John Hark, Bertling logistics regional director-north America and adjust professor, Texas A&M, and Dennis Mottola, global logistics consultant. they will be joining the webcast to discuss this exciting breakbulk session. the webcast will be led by Janet Nodar, chair of the journal of commerce breakbulk and project cargo conference and senior editor for project and breakbulk cargo with the journal of commerce by S&P Global and by Susan Oatway, dedicated senior analyst for breakbulk and project cargo with the journal of commerce by S&P Global.

Moderator:

Janet Nodar, Senior Editor, Breakbulk, Project, and Heavy-Lift Shipping, Journal of Commerce by S&P Global

Co-Moderator:

Susan Oatway, Senior Analyst-Breakbulk and Project Cargo, Journal of Commerce by S&P Global

Speaker(s):

Laurence Allan, Executive Director and Head of Europe Insights and Analysis, S&P Global

Dennis Mottola, Global Logistics Consultant

John Hark, Regional Director-North America, Bertling Logistics and Texas A&M, Adjunct Professor

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