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Container Shipping Outlook: The Trans-Pacific

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This year’s process to secure service contracts in the eastbound trans-Pacific is unfolding like no other year before it. Buffeted by longer lead times, port schedule reliability, and ships that have been idled or slowed in transit, shippers have experienced exponential increases in freight rates over the past year, and still struggled to get their goods to destination weeks after originally scheduled. To bring some stability back to the market, ocean carriers urged their steady customers to enter annual contract negotiations much earlier than usual this year, and retailers and other importers jumped at the opportunity. For carriers, the early start to 2022–23 service contract talks provides an opportunity to lock in a base of business from reliable customers with a history of delivering committed cargo volumes. For shippers who started negotiations in November, rather than in February or March, the lure is to lock in capacity at contract rates that will assuredly be lower than the spot rates in effect during the 2021 peak shipping season. Demand for vessel space in the largest US trade lane will exceed supply this year, just as it did in 2021. On the other hand, spot rates have fallen from the record-smashing levels in October, which means early contract negotiations are beginning at a time when carriers’ leverage won’t continue to rise further. For both carriers and their customers, the ultimate goal during contract negotiations this coming year is to achieve predictability and reliability.
This webcast will analyze this crucial trade lane and explore whether there is any calm on the horizon or whether the storm will only continue.
Moderator: Bill Mongelluzzo, Senior Editor, West Coast, JOC, Maritime & Trade, IHS Markit
Speaker(s):
David Arsenault, President, GSC Logistics, Inc.
Ben Hackett, Founder, and Principal, Hackett Associates
Michael Shaughnessy, Senior Vice President, Operations, Supply Chain, and Emerging Markets, Balsam Brands
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Breakbulk and Project Shipping: Trends and Expectations for the Global Onshore EPC Sector

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The traditional breakbulk market, heavily weighted toward energy projects, is showing signs of returning to life — even as cargo shippers and logistics service providers grapple with a congested, expensive shipping market driven by container cargo "spillover." However, the energy investment landscape, and thus the engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) sector that builds these projects — and generates millions of freight tons of project cargo — has changed dramatically over the past few years. While several large fossil fuel-based projects have recently been awarded or started moving after the pandemic-driven slowdown, the billion-plus mega-projects of yesteryear are fewer and farther between. How is the EPC sector adapting to the new reality: scarcer, smaller projects; the energy transition; decarbonization; and the drive for renewable energy? What can the project logistics sector expect over the next few years?
This webcast will analyze the outlook for the EPC sector, a key cargo driver for the project cargo market.
Moderator: Janet Nodar, Senior Editor, Project and Heavy-Lift Shipping, JOC, Maritime & Trade, IHS Markit
Speaker(s):
William Cunningham, Research Analyst, Oil and Gas, IHS Markit
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Logistics Technology: Figuring Out the Elusive Standardization Problem in Global Logistics (Part 3)

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Standardization of shipping documentation and data has long been an elusive pursuit in the world of global logistics. The fragmented nature of the industry, including the sheer number of parties involved in any shipment, is one reason so little is standardized but also a motivation to push toward standardization. The basic premise is simple: The more that is standardized, the less time and resources will be spent on turning oranges into apples, and the more time that can be spent on innovating and improving.
This webcast, the third in a three-part series leading up to the TPMTech Conference on Feb. 24-25 in Long Beach, California, will explore the key areas of the global logistics industry where standardization is happening, and where the potential exists to create efficiencies that benefit all parties. In so doing, we'll look at practical examples, and the associations, solutions, and platforms enabling that incremental change.
Session Chair:
Eric Johnson, Senior Editor, Technology, JOC, Maritime & Trade, IHS Markit
Speaker(s):
Thomas Bagge, Chief Executive Officer, DCSA
Akshay Dodeja, CEO, Terminal 49
Caitlin Murphy, CEO, Global Gateway Logistics
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Port Performance North America: When Will the Bottlenecks Ease?

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The trans-Pacific supply chain in 2021 was overwhelmed by record US imports from Asia, COVID-19 outbreaks that shut down key China load ports for weeks at a time, the worst vessel on-time performance ever, vessel bunching and congestion at major US gateways and intermodal rail networks, and inland ramps that are still gridlocked. Because US imports now are driven in large part by e-commerce replenishment, and consumers show no signs of cutting back on spending, will these same conditions persist in 2022? What can North American ports and terminal operators do to improve cargo velocity, such as creating surge yards for the temporary storage of containers to relieve pressures at marine terminals, and forming peel piles to reduce trucker turn times? Can shippers look for relief next year at inland rail hubs such as Chicago and Memphis, or will the rail ramps stay congested or possibly get worse?
This webcast will feature the latest trends, outlook, data, and analytics, along with insights from key industry experts and stakeholders as cargo interests wrestle with the worst congestion in recent memory.
Session Chair/Presenter:
Bill Mongelluzzo, Senior Editor, Trans-Pacific, JOC, Maritime & Trade, IHS Markit
AGENDA:
1:00 - 1:05 PM Welcome Remarks
1:05 - 1:35 PM The 2022 Container Shipping Outlook
Will container lines step up to provide sufficient capacity if the record 15 consecutive months of record and near-record import volumes continue well into the new year — or beyond? What are the key forces driving the huge North American import volumes, and will those forces continue to be at work in 2022? Has the eastbound trans-Pacific transitioned from a seasonal trade lane in which peaks and valleys are based upon back-to-school, holiday and spring shopping, and post-holiday and Lunar New Year lows, to a continuous flow of merchandise-based on online shopping? What are the implications of constant replenishment for port congestion and port-related supply chains in Asia and North America? Does “build the church for Easter Sunday” now mean every week is Easter Sunday in the eastbound trans-Pacific?
Keynote Speaker:
Alan Murphy, CEO, and President, Sea-Intelligence Consulting
1:35 - 2:05 PM Asia Load Ports in 2022: Taking Stock
Which ports — and manufacturing centers — in China, Southeast Asia, and the Indian subcontinent are most likely to continue expanding, and which regions will most likely experience gridlock? Do manufacturers in Asia anticipate exports to North America will cool down from the torrid pace in 2021? What did ports and terminal operators in Asia learn this past year about handling record and near-record volumes month after month? Have they implemented new, improved, and safer operating procedures? What about manufacturers in those countries? What are they doing to maintain resiliency in the COVID era? Have other countries learned from China that it takes a village comprised of vendors, manufacturers, assemblers, and logistics providers to efficiently meet growing consumer demand in North America?
Speakers:
Jon Monroe, President, Jon Monroe Consulting
Daniel Krassenstein, Global Supply Chain Director, Procon Pacific
2:05 - 2:35 PM West and East Coast Ports: More Challenges Ahead?
North American ports have endured an unprecedented 15 consecutive months of record or near-record months of imports from Asia. Will these volumes continue into 2022, or possibly beyond? What improved processes have ports deployed to handle vessel bunching, congested marine terminals, chassis shortages, drayage capacity challenges, and warehouses filled to capacity? Will US ports follow the model rolled out by the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in October of charging fees on containers with excessive dwell times to drive cargo velocity?
Speakers:
West Coast Ports: Sal Ferrigno, Vice President, SSA Marine
New York-New Jersey: Bethann Rooney, Deputy Port Director, Port Authority of New York-New Jersey
Georgia Ports Authority: John Petrino, Director Business Development and International Marketing, Georgia Ports Authority
2:35 - 3:05 PM Container Handoffs From Marine Terminals to Warehouses and Intermodal Rail Ramps
Where have all the chassis gone? The overland supply chain this past year has contended with non-stop shortages of chassis, truck capacity, rail power and cars, and record bottlenecks at rail ramps in Chicago and other inland hubs. What plans do asset providers and railroads have to increase their chassis deployments for 2022 cargo volumes that may well exceed those in 2021? Can US chassis manufacturers step up production to meet growing demand next year? When will inland rail hubs return to normal operations?
Speakers:
Mike O’Malley, Senior Vice President, Government and Public Relations, DCLI
Jason Hilsenbeck, President LoadMatch & Drayage.com
3:05 PM Closing Remarks
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Global Shipping Outlook: What Will 2022 Hold?

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2021 may be winding down, but the containerized shipping market is far from it. US port congestion remains at crisis levels even as import growth from Asia is slowing on a year-over-year basis, and the summer-fall surge in US COVID-19 cases is slowing the recovery in consumer spending, according to data from JOC parent company IHS Markit. Even if supply chain bottlenecks ease, and assume progress in vaccinations and a reduction in COVID infections, growth in consumer spending and imports will likely resume in 2022, as will inventory building and earlier-than-usual shipping cycles for importers. No one, after all, wants to relive the pain of this year’s supply chain crisis. On the bright side for shippers, when congestion ultimately eases and circulation of ships, containers, and chassis improves, capacity will return to the system and will create downward pressure on rates. Only time will tell how and when that occurs.
This webcast will shine a light on the current state of the market, and when the tide might turn.
Moderator: Mark Szakonyi, Executive Editor, JOC.com and The Journal of Commerce, Maritime & Trade, IHS Markit
Speaker(s):
Rahul Kapoor, Vice President and Head of Commodity Analytics and Research, Maritime & Trade, IHS Markit
Michael Shaughnessy, Senior Vice President, Operations, Supply Chain, and Emerging Markets, Balsam Brands
Michael Symonanis, Director, North America Logistics, Global Container Logistics Group, Louis Dreyfus
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