<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The latest Global Port Tracker report warns of double-digit declines in imports for the rest of the year and no growth in early 2026. </div>

The latest Global Port Tracker report warns of double-digit declines in imports for the rest of the year and no growth in early 2026.

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<div class="phx-topic">US retailers are throttling back post-winter holiday restocking despite anticipating strong sales for the upcoming holiday season, planning to import less than 2 million TEUs monthly through March. The latest Global Port Tracker (GPT), published on Friday by Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation (NRF), projected double-digit declines in imports for the rest of the year and no growth in early 2026, with volumes expected to fall steadily to 1.79 million TEUs in March. Months of frontloading explain the harsher-than-usual import slowdown for the final months of this year, but uncertain consumer sentiment and ever-changing US tariff policy are keeping retail inventories running lean. US container volumes, which initially rose earlier in the year thanks to cargo frontloading to avoid higher tariffs — surging 3.7% year over year in the first half — will end the year down 2.3% from 2024, according to the GPT. The Trump administration’s shifting tariff policy makes “market forecasting highly uncertain,” Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said in a statement. “Our trade outlook is for a small decline in imports this year compared with 2024 and a further, larger decline in the first quarter of 2026,” he said. US imports this month and in December will plunge 14.4% and 19.9%, respectively, from a year ago, according to the GPT. The volumes compare poorly with the year-earlier period partly because cargo was frontloaded last year due to labor woes, notably a brief port strike along the US East and Gulf coasts. <h3>Strong sales, weak replenishing </h3>US retail sales this year will top $1 trillion, expanding approximately 3% to 4% from last year, according to a GPT analysis released Thursday. US consumer sentiment is weakening, however, with a preliminary November reading from the University of Michigan’s index showing weakness from October due to heightened concerns over the more than five-week government shutdown. In the face of mixed US economic signals and fluctuating tariff policy, US retailers have been playing it safe when it comes to restocking. US inventory-to-sales ratios for retailers have hovered between 1.28 and 1.32, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, suggesting that despite the frontloading of imports in the first half of the year, importers are keeping stocks lean. That strategy seems to extend into 2026, when GPT forecasts imports will fall to 1.98 million TEUs in January and 1.85 million TEUs in February.<div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="8fd4291a-fe85-42be-bbea-ccd1a61de56d"></dynamic-object></div>The US-China trade deal announced last week spurred US retailers to move quickly on imports they need in the short term, but the effect was limited. The one-year halving of the so-called “fentanyl tax” on imports from China still leaves the tariff rate at approximately 47%, which is higher than the levies on imports from other Asian source countries tapped by US retailers. The GPT covers the ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, and Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, the Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast. Contact Mark Szakonyi at <a href="mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com">mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

US retailers are throttling back post-winter holiday restocking despite anticipating strong sales for the upcoming holiday season, planning to import less than 2 million TEUs monthly through March. The latest Global Port Tracker (GPT), published on Friday by Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation (NRF), projected double-digit declines in imports for the rest of the year and no growth in early 2026, with volumes expected to fall steadily to 1.79 million TEUs in March. Months of frontloading explain the harsher-than-usual import slowdown for the final months of this year, but uncertain consumer sentiment and ever-changing US tariff policy are keeping retail inventories running lean. US container volumes, which initially rose earlier in the year thanks to cargo frontloading to avoid higher tariffs — surging 3.7% year over year in the first half — will end the year down 2.3% from 2024, according to the GPT. The Trump administration’s shifting tariff policy makes “market forecasting highly uncertain,” Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said in a statement. “Our trade outlook is for a small decline in imports this year compared with 2024 and a further, larger decline in the first quarter of 2026,” he said. US imports this month and in December will plunge 14.4% and 19.9%, respectively, from a year ago, according to the GPT. The volumes compare poorly with the year-earlier period partly because cargo was frontloaded last year due to labor woes, notably a brief port strike along the US East and Gulf coasts. Strong sales, weak replenishing US retail sales this year will top $1 trillion, expanding approximately 3% to 4% from last year, according to a GPT analysis released Thursday. US consumer sentiment is weakening, however, with a preliminary November reading from the University of Michigan’s index showing weakness from October due to heightened concerns over the more than five-week government shutdown. In the face of mixed US economic signals and fluctuating tariff policy, US retailers have been playing it safe when it comes to restocking. US inventory-to-sales ratios for retailers have hovered between 1.28 and 1.32, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, suggesting that despite the frontloading of imports in the first half of the year, importers are keeping stocks lean. That strategy seems to extend into 2026, when GPT forecasts imports will fall to 1.98 million TEUs in January and 1.85 million TEUs in February. The US-China trade deal announced last week spurred US retailers to move quickly on imports they need in the short term, but the effect was limited. The one-year halving of the so-called “fentanyl tax” on imports from China still leaves the tariff rate at approximately 47%, which is higher than the levies on imports from other Asian source countries tapped by US retailers. The GPT covers the ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, and Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, the Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast. Contact Mark Szakonyi at  mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com .

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US retailers throttle back on imports amid uncertain consumer sentiment

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Daniel Elliott III told a webinar that the proposed $85 billion merger is “leaning more toward approval” because of the White House’s support. </div>

Daniel Elliott III told a webinar that the proposed $85 billion merger is “leaning more toward approval” because of the White House’s support.

<div class="phx-topic">A former chairman of the US Surface Transportation Board (STB) said the proposed merger between Union Pacific Railroad (UP) and Norfolk Southern Railway (NS) is likely to win regulatory approval, citing President Donald Trump’s influence and the political alignment of the current board. Daniel Elliott III, who served two nonconsecutive terms as STB chairman between 2009 and 2017, told a webinar Thursday that the $85 billion transaction is “leaning more toward approval” because of the administration’s support. The webinar was hosted by Breakthrough, a supply chain optimization and transportation advisory firm that advises major shippers on freight strategy and fuel management. “If this administration shows support for the merger, it’ll be very difficult for the STB to say, ‘Oh no, I’m not going to vote that way,’” Elliott said. “Right now, it’s leaning more towards approval of the merger because of the influence the most powerful man can have on just about anything that happens in Washington, DC.” UP wants to <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/up-ceo-pushing-to-file-formal-ns-merger-application-by-dec-1-6102362">file the merger application by Dec. 1</a>, although the STB is closed during the government shutdown and its work backlog grows by the day. The timeline for a final decision hasn’t been set, but most likely would not come until 2027. Trump voiced support for the deal after meeting UP CEO Jim Vena in the Oval Office in September. Union Pacific, interestingly, is listed among the corporate donors for the construction of the new 90,000-square-foot White House ballroom, a privately-funded initiative by the Trump administration that has caused controversy because it involved the demolition of the East Wing of the White House. The proposed UP-NS mega-merger has divided the rail industry. BNSF Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City have publicly opposed the deal, while Canadian National Railway and CSX Transportation have discussed protecting the interests of their shippers during the application review process. The US’ largest rail union, SMART-TD, and major intermodal partners including Hub Group and Knight Swift, support the transaction. Elliott said the growing partnership demonstrated recently between BNSF and CSX is aimed at showing regulators that the same benefits can be achieved without consolidation. “If this thing is approved, BNSF will be pretty much forced, I think, to merge with CSX at that point to remain on the same footing,” he said. “You don’t want to give anything away by letting Union Pacific have an advantage. That would mean that there are two railroads carrying about 95% of the freight traffic in the United States — kind of like the Canadians are with CN and CPKC.” <h3>STB nominees say they’ll be objective </h3>Meanwhile, at a Senate Commerce Committee hearing Thursday, two Trump nominees to the STB — Bruce Kloster and Michelle Schultz — pledged not to prejudge the UP-NS matter before reviewing the formal merger application. Kloster would be a new member to the board, while Schultz has been renominated for a second term after initially being nominated to the STB at the end of Trump’s first term. “My commitment to you and to this committee would be to be objective, to be fair, to be impartial, to do all the research and analysis to come up with the right decision regarding this merger,” said Kloster. “Absolutely, I will treat it with independence and impartiality.” Schultz echoed those comments. “In all matters that come before the board, I review the evidentiary record, the comments that are filed on the docket and the applicable law and statutes, and I will be prepared to do so in this case as well,” she said. Both nominees said the post-2001 STB merger rules, which put in place a stricter framework for major rail combinations, would govern their review. It will be the first test of those rules because the Canadian Pacific-Kansas City Southern transaction approved by the STB in 2023 was deemed a “minor” transaction. The stricter standards for major transactions require railroads to not merely avoid harming competition, but to demonstrate how a merger would enhance competition. The railroads must also submit detailed service plans to prevent disruption during an integration. Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

A former chairman of the US Surface Transportation Board (STB) said the proposed merger between Union Pacific Railroad (UP) and Norfolk Southern Railway (NS) is likely to win regulatory approval, citing President Donald Trump’s influence and the political alignment of the current board. Daniel Elliott III, who served two nonconsecutive terms as STB chairman between 2009 and 2017, told a webinar Thursday that the $85 billion transaction is “leaning more toward approval” because of the administration’s support. The webinar was hosted by Breakthrough, a supply chain optimization and transportation advisory firm that advises major shippers on freight strategy and fuel management. “If this administration shows support for the merger, it’ll be very difficult for the STB to say, ‘Oh no, I’m not going to vote that way,’” Elliott said. “Right now, it’s leaning more towards approval of the merger because of the influence the most powerful man can have on just about anything that happens in Washington, DC.” UP wants to file the merger application by Dec. 1 , although the STB is closed during the government shutdown and its work backlog grows by the day. The timeline for a final decision hasn’t been set, but most likely would not come until 2027. Trump voiced support for the deal after meeting UP CEO Jim Vena in the Oval Office in September. Union Pacific, interestingly, is listed among the corporate donors for the construction of the new 90,000-square-foot White House ballroom, a privately-funded initiative by the Trump administration that has caused controversy because it involved the demolition of the East Wing of the White House. The proposed UP-NS mega-merger has divided the rail industry. BNSF Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City have publicly opposed the deal, while Canadian National Railway and CSX Transportation have discussed protecting the interests of their shippers during the application review process. The US’ largest rail union, SMART-TD, and major intermodal partners including Hub Group and Knight Swift, support the transaction. Elliott said the growing partnership demonstrated recently between BNSF and CSX is aimed at showing regulators that the same benefits can be achieved without consolidation. “If this thing is approved, BNSF will be pretty much forced, I think, to merge with CSX at that point to remain on the same footing,” he said. “You don’t want to give anything away by letting Union Pacific have an advantage. That would mean that there are two railroads carrying about 95% of the freight traffic in the United States — kind of like the Canadians are with CN and CPKC.” STB nominees say they’ll be objective Meanwhile, at a Senate Commerce Committee hearing Thursday, two Trump nominees to the STB — Bruce Kloster and Michelle Schultz — pledged not to prejudge the UP-NS matter before reviewing the formal merger application. Kloster would be a new member to the board, while Schultz has been renominated for a second term after initially being nominated to the STB at the end of Trump’s first term. “My commitment to you and to this committee would be to be objective, to be fair, to be impartial, to do all the research and analysis to come up with the right decision regarding this merger,” said Kloster. “Absolutely, I will treat it with independence and impartiality.” Schultz echoed those comments. “In all matters that come before the board, I review the evidentiary record, the comments that are filed on the docket and the applicable law and statutes, and I will be prepared to do so in this case as well,” she said. Both nominees said the post-2001 STB merger rules, which put in place a stricter framework for major rail combinations, would govern their review. It will be the first test of those rules because the Canadian Pacific-Kansas City Southern transaction approved by the STB in 2023 was deemed a “minor” transaction. The stricter standards for major transactions require railroads to not merely avoid harming competition, but to demonstrate how a merger would enhance competition. The railroads must also submit detailed service plans to prevent disruption during an integration. Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

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Trump support likely to get UP-NS deal approved: ex-STB chairman

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">With its unit costs falling in the aftermath of its alliance with Hapag-Lloyd, the carrier is becoming more confident in discussions with customers on charging a premium for services that in the third quarter came with schedule reliability of about 90%.</div>

With its unit costs falling in the aftermath of its alliance with Hapag-Lloyd, the carrier is becoming more confident in discussions with customers on charging a premium for services that in the third quarter came with schedule reliability of about 90%.

<div class="phx-topic">Maersk is edging closer to charging a premium for providing industry-leading schedule reliability as the carrier unlocks unit cost savings across its Gemini Cooperation network. Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said the carrier has “broken some efficiency frontier” as the Gemini network launched with partner Hapag-Lloyd in February was fully phased in on east-west trade lanes during the third quarter. “From a cost perspective, I think it’s a pretty significant lever that we have unlocked ... this has legs to continue into the coming quarters,” Clerc told analysts on <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/maersk-boosts-earnings-guidance-on-higher-container-volume-growth-6110653">Maersk’s third-quarter earnings</a> call Thursday. With its unit costs falling, Maersk is becoming more confident in discussions with customers about charging a premium for services that came with schedule reliability of about 90% in the third quarter. While conversations with customers around a premium are already underway, Clerc said the current on-time performance would need to be sustained before such a charge could be rolled out. “We need to be certain that we have a long enough track record that it unlocks value for them [shippers], that we can then capture some of that value for us,” he told analysts. “For instance, today every customer has buffer stock, and that reliability needs to unlock a reduction in that buffer stock,” Clerc added. “They need to trust that [Gemini] has weathered sufficient ups and downs and is steady [so] that they can take out some of that buffer stock.” <h3>Tapping into savings </h3>If shippers could pocket those savings, Clerc said Maersk would be able to tap into those savings in the form of a premium. “That process is starting. It’s a long-haul process, but certainly where we see some potential to capture value,” he noted. “Not everything [in Gemini] is fully in a place where value has been unlocked, but we are very positive with the discussions so far." Clerc said from a unit cost perspective, he would need one or two more quarters of data from Maersk and its rivals to see who was holding the upper hand. But the CEO was confident Maersk would remain in front. “What we can see with the numbers that have been released so far is that we’re making more progress on unit costs than what [competitors are] making, and we attribute this to Gemini, which is the big thing that we did to lower our unit costs,” he said. “We’re quite positive that with Gemini we’re opening a gap now that is going to be quite handy, especially in the current rate environment, and we will continue to work at making it as big as possible,” Clerc added. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Maersk is edging closer to charging a premium for providing industry-leading schedule reliability as the carrier unlocks unit cost savings across its Gemini Cooperation network. Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said the carrier has “broken some efficiency frontier” as the Gemini network launched with partner Hapag-Lloyd in February was fully phased in on east-west trade lanes during the third quarter. “From a cost perspective, I think it’s a pretty significant lever that we have unlocked ... this has legs to continue into the coming quarters,” Clerc told analysts on Maersk’s third-quarter earnings call Thursday. With its unit costs falling, Maersk is becoming more confident in discussions with customers about charging a premium for services that came with schedule reliability of about 90% in the third quarter. While conversations with customers around a premium are already underway, Clerc said the current on-time performance would need to be sustained before such a charge could be rolled out. “We need to be certain that we have a long enough track record that it unlocks value for them [shippers], that we can then capture some of that value for us,” he told analysts. “For instance, today every customer has buffer stock, and that reliability needs to unlock a reduction in that buffer stock,” Clerc added. “They need to trust that [Gemini] has weathered sufficient ups and downs and is steady [so] that they can take out some of that buffer stock.” Tapping into savings If shippers could pocket those savings, Clerc said Maersk would be able to tap into those savings in the form of a premium. “That process is starting. It’s a long-haul process, but certainly where we see some potential to capture value,” he noted. “Not everything [in Gemini] is fully in a place where value has been unlocked, but we are very positive with the discussions so far." Clerc said from a unit cost perspective, he would need one or two more quarters of data from Maersk and its rivals to see who was holding the upper hand. But the CEO was confident Maersk would remain in front. “What we can see with the numbers that have been released so far is that we’re making more progress on unit costs than what [competitors are] making, and we attribute this to Gemini, which is the big thing that we did to lower our unit costs,” he said. “We’re quite positive that with Gemini we’re opening a gap now that is going to be quite handy, especially in the current rate environment, and we will continue to work at making it as big as possible,” Clerc added. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

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Value unlocked by Gemini will clear path for premium charge: Maersk CEO

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Car carriers and ro/ro operators had been left in limbo since the deal to postpone reciprocal US and Chinese port fees was announced during the meeting of presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea on Oct. 30.</div>

Car carriers and ro/ro operators had been left in limbo since the deal to postpone reciprocal US and Chinese port fees was announced during the meeting of presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea on Oct. 30.

<div class="phx-topic">Car carriers and roll-on/roll-off (ro/ro) operators are welcoming confirmation that their foreign-built ships are included in the US Trade Representative’s (USTR’s) year-long pause in port fees that begins Monday. The inclusion of foreign-built vehicle carriers and ro/ro operators in the 12-month suspension was made official when the USTR issued a formal notice Thursday inviting public comment on the suspension of port fees, which mainly target China-built, -operated and -flagged ships. In its notice, the USTR gave respondents less than 48 hours to comment, with the deadline of 5 p.m. EST Friday before the pause takes effect Monday. “We are pleased to see the USTR proposal to postpone the port fees,” Andreas Enger, CEO of Norwegian operator Höegh Autoliners, told the Journal of Commerce Friday. Enger said the USTR’s move will help make US automakers more competitive in the global market. Enger said the export of US-built cars “makes up a substantial share” of the carrier’s business. Florida-headquartered operator Accordia Shipping said the suspension will allow it to continue its ro/ro expansion plans, “at least for one more year.” “We will proceed with the acquisition of a ‘con/ro’ ship, which carries containers and ro/ro cargo,” the company’s legal affairs liaison, Farid Escobar, told the Journal of Commerce. The carrier’s trade consists almost entirely of outbound US exports to Caribbean destinations, including Haiti and the Dominican Republic, Escobar said. Accordia had faced a port fee bill of almost $1 million in the first year, which Escobar found hard for the USTR to justify given that the company’s operation “serves as a short-sea extension of US export infrastructure, supporting domestic manufacturing, regional commerce and supply-chain resilience.” <h3>Operators had planned measures to manage fees </h3>Car carrier and ro/ro operators had been left in limbo since the deal to postpone reciprocal US and Chinese port fees <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-china-suspend-reciprocal-port-fees-as-part-of-wider-trade-deal-6105849">was announced during the meeting of presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea on Oct. 30</a>. The original USTR Section 301 action to impose port levies not only targeted Chinese-owned or -operated ships, but all foreign-built vehicle carriers and ro/ros, whether China-built or not. The Oct. 30 announcement only mentioned a pause for China-linked vessels; there was no reference to vehicle carriers, an omission that left operators unsure whether the fees still applied to their ships. Carriers and US automobile and heavy machinery manufacturers said they faced significant cost increases and a shortage of shipping capacity after port fees were introduced on Oct. 14. Lasse Kristoffersen, president and CEO of Wallenius Wilhelmsen, the world’s biggest vehicle operator with approximately 130 ships, said the company had faced a $100 million port fee bill in the current quarter, although it hoped to mitigate the impact or pass the extra costs onto customers. Responding to the confirmation of the 12-month pause in fees, Wilhelmsen said it noted the US had issued “a formal notice postponing the implementation of Section 301 measures ... [but] ... will await a formal confirmation of the docket before we draw any conclusions.” Both Wallenius Wilhelmsen and Höegh Autoliners had drawn up contingencies to offset the impact of the US port fees. Höegh’s Enger said the company’s third-quarter dividend payment would be canceled to preserve cash after it faced a $60 million to $70 million hit from the port fees. He said the payment was suspended in response to the general uncertainty in trade policy and regulations, including the port fees. “We believe this uncertainty still exists, and we do not intend to reverse our decision on timing of payouts,” Enger said. Speaking during Wilhelmsen’s third-quarter results briefing on Nov. 5, Kristoffersen said the company had prepared 15 measures to manage the US port fees, including maximizing the deployment of its fleet of 11 US-flag ships on US calls. US-flag ships were exempt from the port fees. Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>.</div>

Car carriers and roll-on/roll-off (ro/ro) operators are welcoming confirmation that their foreign-built ships are included in the US Trade Representative’s (USTR’s) year-long pause in port fees that begins Monday. The inclusion of foreign-built vehicle carriers and ro/ro operators in the 12-month suspension was made official when the USTR issued a formal notice Thursday inviting public comment on the suspension of port fees, which mainly target China-built, -operated and -flagged ships. In its notice, the USTR gave respondents less than 48 hours to comment, with the deadline of 5 p.m. EST Friday before the pause takes effect Monday. “We are pleased to see the USTR proposal to postpone the port fees,” Andreas Enger, CEO of Norwegian operator Höegh Autoliners, told the Journal of Commerce Friday. Enger said the USTR’s move will help make US automakers more competitive in the global market. Enger said the export of US-built cars “makes up a substantial share” of the carrier’s business. Florida-headquartered operator Accordia Shipping said the suspension will allow it to continue its ro/ro expansion plans, “at least for one more year.” “We will proceed with the acquisition of a ‘con/ro’ ship, which carries containers and ro/ro cargo,” the company’s legal affairs liaison, Farid Escobar, told the Journal of Commerce. The carrier’s trade consists almost entirely of outbound US exports to Caribbean destinations, including Haiti and the Dominican Republic, Escobar said. Accordia had faced a port fee bill of almost $1 million in the first year, which Escobar found hard for the USTR to justify given that the company’s operation “serves as a short-sea extension of US export infrastructure, supporting domestic manufacturing, regional commerce and supply-chain resilience.” Operators had planned measures to manage fees Car carrier and ro/ro operators had been left in limbo since the deal to postpone reciprocal US and Chinese port fees was announced during the meeting of presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea on Oct. 30 . The original USTR Section 301 action to impose port levies not only targeted Chinese-owned or -operated ships, but all foreign-built vehicle carriers and ro/ros, whether China-built or not. The Oct. 30 announcement only mentioned a pause for China-linked vessels; there was no reference to vehicle carriers, an omission that left operators unsure whether the fees still applied to their ships. Carriers and US automobile and heavy machinery manufacturers said they faced significant cost increases and a shortage of shipping capacity after port fees were introduced on Oct. 14. Lasse Kristoffersen, president and CEO of Wallenius Wilhelmsen, the world’s biggest vehicle operator with approximately 130 ships, said the company had faced a $100 million port fee bill in the current quarter, although it hoped to mitigate the impact or pass the extra costs onto customers. Responding to the confirmation of the 12-month pause in fees, Wilhelmsen said it noted the US had issued “a formal notice postponing the implementation of Section 301 measures ... [but] ... will await a formal confirmation of the docket before we draw any conclusions.” Both Wallenius Wilhelmsen and Höegh Autoliners had drawn up contingencies to offset the impact of the US port fees. Höegh’s Enger said the company’s third-quarter dividend payment would be canceled to preserve cash after it faced a $60 million to $70 million hit from the port fees. He said the payment was suspended in response to the general uncertainty in trade policy and regulations, including the port fees. “We believe this uncertainty still exists, and we do not intend to reverse our decision on timing of payouts,” Enger said. Speaking during Wilhelmsen’s third-quarter results briefing on Nov. 5, Kristoffersen said the company had prepared 15 measures to manage the US port fees, including maximizing the deployment of its fleet of 11 US-flag ships on US calls. US-flag ships were exempt from the port fees. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

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Vehicle carriers, ro/ro operators relieved to be included in pause on US port fees

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The ability to redeploy ships means that no trade operates in a bubble, but in the short term at least, each trade has its own supply and demand dynamics, notes Jeremy Masters. </div>

The ability to redeploy ships means that no trade operates in a bubble, but in the short term at least, each trade has its own supply and demand dynamics, notes Jeremy Masters.

<div class="phx-topic">There has been consternation in the container shipping industry as to why charter rates have remained reasonably firm when freight rates have been going down. It is natural to expect that rapidly declining freight rates would cause a pullback in demand for extra ships from carriers and thus put pressure on charter rates. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6111259_0.1.jpg"></img></div>But the global market is, of course, made up of multiple trades. The ability to redeploy ships means that no trade operates in a bubble, but in the short term at least, each trade has its own supply/demand balance. Similarly, the charter market has several ranges of ship size and specifications, and the health of various sub-segments can vary. If we look at the individual interactions between trades and the specific ships required for those trades, we can start to see where the correlations are and why charter rates have remained generally firm up until now. References to freight rates going down usually refer to high-volume, long-haul trades. These trades are, however, served predominantly by large ships that are either carrier-owned or on longer-term charters to carriers. If we look at Alphaliner’s regular reports on chartering activity, the biggest size segment regularly reported is 7,500 TEUs to 13,000 TEUs. There has been an ongoing scarcity of these size ships available from non-operating owners (NOOs), and if carriers have a gap in their deep-sea coverage for these sizes, they tend to fix them for longer periods. Vessels over 13,000 TEUs are so seldom in the short-term charter market that they are not reported. Of course, there are some smaller chartered ships in the long-haul trades, but many are operated by the midsize/smaller-sized carriers, and their presence can be opportunistic. In the trades requiring the biggest ships, the short-term charter market is then of limited relevance and any search for a correlation versus freight rates will be unproductive. <h3>Smaller deep-sea trades </h3>If we switch to smaller deep-sea trades, regional trades and feeder trades (the latter two overlapping sometimes) predominantly requiring tonnage in the 2,000-TEU to 8,000-TEU range, there are a wide range of trades, each with its own dynamics. In these trades, there is a much wider variety of carriers and a higher dependence from both big and small carriers to use the elasticity of the charter market to plug supply gaps in existing services and to launch new services. There is also a much wider range in the age and efficiency of ships in this segment. The secondhand market is much more active, and the pipeline of newbuildings has been a lot more modest. What has been pivotal on charter ship supply (and thus price) has been the intervention by carriers — particularly Mediterranean Shipping Co. and CMA CGM — to buy NOO tonnage in the smaller/mid-sizes to operate in smaller trades. In April, Alphaliner reported that between August 2020 and March 2025, 3.7 million TEUs of NOO capacity was sold to end-users, and the net loss after newbuildings and some small purchases from end-users was 2.3 million TEUs. Suffice it to say, the supply side of the charter market has become inelastic at the same time carriers have been constrained in their ordering of new tonnage in these ship sizes. The result has been carriers chasing a limited supply of ships on the charter market and resorting to upgrading/downgrading the ship size they would accept, thus explaining why many sub-categories of size have remained firm at the same time. No disconnect then, just a change in supply that favored a firm charter market. <h3>Catalyst for short-term charter rates </h3>What will be the catalyst for short-term charter rates in the smaller sizes taking a major dip? Newbuild orders are going up in the smaller sizes, but as immediate supply remains constrained, a major dip in the short-term charter market will not happen unless there is a drop in demand in the smaller trades. These trades are, however, not immune from what is happening in the bigger trades. One of the options for carriers in dealing with overcapacity will be to cascade ships at the lower end of the big ship capacity range to midsize trades in the next tier, and so on. This can hit the short-term charter market because more owned/long-termed chartered ships will allow the return of short-term charters. And because of the oversupply of slots, low-rate contagion will also be exported, forcing carriers to reassess participation in trades requiring expensive charters. The correlation between freight markets and short-term charter markets may become a lot clearer in the coming months then — but in a negative way. Jeremy Masters is managing director of Shipping Masters. Contact him at <a href="mailto:jeremy@shippingmastershk.com">jeremy@shippingmastershk.com</a>. </div>

There has been consternation in the container shipping industry as to why charter rates have remained reasonably firm when freight rates have been going down. It is natural to expect that rapidly declining freight rates would cause a pullback in demand for extra ships from carriers and thus put pressure on charter rates. But the global market is, of course, made up of multiple trades. The ability to redeploy ships means that no trade operates in a bubble, but in the short term at least, each trade has its own supply/demand balance. Similarly, the charter market has several ranges of ship size and specifications, and the health of various sub-segments can vary. If we look at the individual interactions between trades and the specific ships required for those trades, we can start to see where the correlations are and why charter rates have remained generally firm up until now. References to freight rates going down usually refer to high-volume, long-haul trades. These trades are, however, served predominantly by large ships that are either carrier-owned or on longer-term charters to carriers. If we look at Alphaliner’s regular reports on chartering activity, the biggest size segment regularly reported is 7,500 TEUs to 13,000 TEUs. There has been an ongoing scarcity of these size ships available from non-operating owners (NOOs), and if carriers have a gap in their deep-sea coverage for these sizes, they tend to fix them for longer periods. Vessels over 13,000 TEUs are so seldom in the short-term charter market that they are not reported. Of course, there are some smaller chartered ships in the long-haul trades, but many are operated by the midsize/smaller-sized carriers, and their presence can be opportunistic. In the trades requiring the biggest ships, the short-term charter market is then of limited relevance and any search for a correlation versus freight rates will be unproductive. Smaller deep-sea trades If we switch to smaller deep-sea trades, regional trades and feeder trades (the latter two overlapping sometimes) predominantly requiring tonnage in the 2,000-TEU to 8,000-TEU range, there are a wide range of trades, each with its own dynamics. In these trades, there is a much wider variety of carriers and a higher dependence from both big and small carriers to use the elasticity of the charter market to plug supply gaps in existing services and to launch new services. There is also a much wider range in the age and efficiency of ships in this segment. The secondhand market is much more active, and the pipeline of newbuildings has been a lot more modest. What has been pivotal on charter ship supply (and thus price) has been the intervention by carriers — particularly Mediterranean Shipping Co. and CMA CGM — to buy NOO tonnage in the smaller/mid-sizes to operate in smaller trades. In April, Alphaliner reported that between August 2020 and March 2025, 3.7 million TEUs of NOO capacity was sold to end-users, and the net loss after newbuildings and some small purchases from end-users was 2.3 million TEUs. Suffice it to say, the supply side of the charter market has become inelastic at the same time carriers have been constrained in their ordering of new tonnage in these ship sizes. The result has been carriers chasing a limited supply of ships on the charter market and resorting to upgrading/downgrading the ship size they would accept, thus explaining why many sub-categories of size have remained firm at the same time. No disconnect then, just a change in supply that favored a firm charter market. Catalyst for short-term charter rates What will be the catalyst for short-term charter rates in the smaller sizes taking a major dip? Newbuild orders are going up in the smaller sizes, but as immediate supply remains constrained, a major dip in the short-term charter market will not happen unless there is a drop in demand in the smaller trades. These trades are, however, not immune from what is happening in the bigger trades. One of the options for carriers in dealing with overcapacity will be to cascade ships at the lower end of the big ship capacity range to midsize trades in the next tier, and so on. This can hit the short-term charter market because more owned/long-termed chartered ships will allow the return of short-term charters. And because of the oversupply of slots, low-rate contagion will also be exported, forcing carriers to reassess participation in trades requiring expensive charters. The correlation between freight markets and short-term charter markets may become a lot clearer in the coming months then — but in a negative way. Jeremy Masters is managing director of Shipping Masters. Contact him at jeremy@shippingmastershk.com .

In search of the disconnect between freight rates and charter rates

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Renewed interest in oil and gas-related projects, as well as power generation infrastructure for data centers, will boost breakbulk cargo volumes.</div>

Renewed interest in oil and gas-related projects, as well as power generation infrastructure for data centers, will boost breakbulk cargo volumes.

<div class="phx-topic">Unprecedented acquisition activity in the oil and gas sector in the US, Central and South America, the Middle East and Asia has taken global capital investment to its highest level since 2015. In its October Global Upstream Spending Report, S&amp;P Global, parent company of the Journal of Commerce, said investment spending in this sector was up 4% year over year. Oil and gas is one of the strongest sectors for breakbulk and project cargo demand. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6111233_0.1.jpg"></img></div>S&amp;P Global projects global demand for gas turbines to grow 5% in 2025 before slipping slightly through 2029. Demand for gas compressors is forecast to grow 6% this year, again with a slight decline in growth projected to 2029. Emerging demand from the clean energy sector is expected to balance any decline from the traditional oil and gas sector, according to S&amp;P Global’s October Industry Trends report. Meanwhile, power generation, particularly for data centers, is also expected to increase demand for project cargo to 2029. While the centers themselves will house minimal heavy-lift items, their huge power demand is driving on-site power projects. These so-called “bring your own power” (BYOP) projects, needed to avoid interconnection and transmission delays, are driving heavy-lift cargo demand. Carriers speaking to the Journal of Commerce in October confirmed that shipments of battery storage units and transformers are booming for 2026. Seaborne cargo volumes for commodities associated with energy and mining, transportation equipment and parts, and metals and metal products (all typical project cargo) increased 9.3% in the second quarter from the first quarter, according to S&amp;P Global. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="9c8db29e-0c96-4d44-8a9d-bb263b7ee7d1"></dynamic-object></div>Total upstream spending is expected to grow by an average of 3.9% to 2029, according to S&amp;P Global Commodity Insights. The US accounted for 55% of worldwide upstream investment in 2024, with acquisition costs rising 264% to $238 billion through major consolidation deals. Over the reporting period, the threat of tariffs loomed large over the industry, but the main effect was logistical rather than economic. Some services were suspended in the early stages, as the industry tried to come to grips with the changes. The uncertainty around whether tariffs were off or on, and at what level they might be, was one of the main concerns for shippers talking to the Journal of Commerce in October. Fluctuations in anticipated final project costs — even while cargoes are being shipped —continue to lead to the rerouting of cargoes as shippers try to react to an ever-changing situation. Shippers say they have had to discharge cargo earlier than anticipated and pay overland costs or diversify their sourcing across Asia and Europe. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="6e8a3d68-6e23-4693-a105-8447c51c9c7d"></dynamic-object></div>But more certainty around some tariffs in the final quarter of the year could ease planning concerns, shippers say. The US has announced deals with China, the EU, Japan, South Korea and several Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) states, among others, typically including reduced tariff rates, exemptions or reduced rates for product-level duties, purchase and investment commitments and reductions in duties on imports from the US. Sector-level tariffs have been deployed for steel, aluminum, copper, and autos, among others, at rates of 25% to 100%, with investigations ongoing into electronics, machine tools, critical minerals and more. At the start of November, deals had yet to be concluded with Canada and Mexico. S&amp;P Global, in its end-October report on US tariff plans, said that tariffs are likely to remain in place for most trade partners outside of a major market or economic event. The US Supreme Court, which held a hearing this week on Trump’s authority to implement widespread tariffs, may have its say as well before too long. Until then, the relative stability has improved investor confidence, leading to more projects receiving final approval, according to engineering, procurement and construction companies speaking to the Journal of Commerce. Contact Susan Oatway at <a href="mailto:susan.oatway@spglobal.com">susan.oatway@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Unprecedented acquisition activity in the oil and gas sector in the US, Central and South America, the Middle East and Asia has taken global capital investment to its highest level since 2015. In its October Global Upstream Spending Report, S&P Global, parent company of the Journal of Commerce, said investment spending in this sector was up 4% year over year. Oil and gas is one of the strongest sectors for breakbulk and project cargo demand. S&P Global projects global demand for gas turbines to grow 5% in 2025 before slipping slightly through 2029. Demand for gas compressors is forecast to grow 6% this year, again with a slight decline in growth projected to 2029. Emerging demand from the clean energy sector is expected to balance any decline from the traditional oil and gas sector, according to S&P Global’s October Industry Trends report. Meanwhile, power generation, particularly for data centers, is also expected to increase demand for project cargo to 2029. While the centers themselves will house minimal heavy-lift items, their huge power demand is driving on-site power projects. These so-called “bring your own power” (BYOP) projects, needed to avoid interconnection and transmission delays, are driving heavy-lift cargo demand. Carriers speaking to the Journal of Commerce in October confirmed that shipments of battery storage units and transformers are booming for 2026. Seaborne cargo volumes for commodities associated with energy and mining, transportation equipment and parts, and metals and metal products (all typical project cargo) increased 9.3% in the second quarter from the first quarter, according to S&P Global. Total upstream spending is expected to grow by an average of 3.9% to 2029, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. The US accounted for 55% of worldwide upstream investment in 2024, with acquisition costs rising 264% to $238 billion through major consolidation deals. Over the reporting period, the threat of tariffs loomed large over the industry, but the main effect was logistical rather than economic. Some services were suspended in the early stages, as the industry tried to come to grips with the changes. The uncertainty around whether tariffs were off or on, and at what level they might be, was one of the main concerns for shippers talking to the Journal of Commerce in October. Fluctuations in anticipated final project costs — even while cargoes are being shipped —continue to lead to the rerouting of cargoes as shippers try to react to an ever-changing situation. Shippers say they have had to discharge cargo earlier than anticipated and pay overland costs or diversify their sourcing across Asia and Europe. But more certainty around some tariffs in the final quarter of the year could ease planning concerns, shippers say. The US has announced deals with China, the EU, Japan, South Korea and several Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) states, among others, typically including reduced tariff rates, exemptions or reduced rates for product-level duties, purchase and investment commitments and reductions in duties on imports from the US. Sector-level tariffs have been deployed for steel, aluminum, copper, and autos, among others, at rates of 25% to 100%, with investigations ongoing into electronics, machine tools, critical minerals and more. At the start of November, deals had yet to be concluded with Canada and Mexico. S&P Global, in its end-October report on US tariff plans, said that tariffs are likely to remain in place for most trade partners outside of a major market or economic event. The US Supreme Court, which held a hearing this week on Trump’s authority to implement widespread tariffs, may have its say as well before too long. Until then, the relative stability has improved investor confidence, leading to more projects receiving final approval, according to engineering, procurement and construction companies speaking to the Journal of Commerce. Contact Susan Oatway at susan.oatway@spglobal.com .

Energy projects

Project cargo

Breakbulk News

Increased capital investment to accelerate project cargo demand

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">If the proposed Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern merger proceeds, the balance of power inside a little-known cooperative that serves as the industry’s shared equipment pool could shift dramatically.</div>

If the proposed Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern merger proceeds, the balance of power inside a little-known cooperative that serves as the industry’s shared equipment pool could shift dramatically.

<div class="phx-topic">When your railroad says “no cars available,” the problem usually isn’t a shortage. It’s a cooperative most shippers have never heard of — one that controls nearly every intermodal container, autorack and flatcar in North America. And if the proposed Union Pacific (UP)–Norfolk Southern (NS) merger proceeds, the balance of power inside that cooperative could shift dramatically. That cooperative is TTX Company. While shippers and unions debate potential service disruptions and job losses from the $85 billion merger announced in July, a more fundamental question has gone unasked: What happens when one railroad becomes the dominant voice in the industry’s shared equipment pool? <h3>The system you didn’t know existed </h3>TTX manages approximately 177,000 well cars, flats, autoracks and boxcars, representing about $17 billion in assets. It’s a neutral pool owned collectively by the Class I railroads, operating under Surface Transportation Board (STB) oversight since 1974. The concept is simple: Competing railroads share rolling stock rather than hoarding it. When a car finishes one move, it can be loaded again immediately, regardless of whose track it’s on next. This model has saved the industry billions in duplicate investment and given shippers a measure of reliability in an otherwise fragmented system. Cars flow to demand, not ownership. Repairs are standardized. Procurement is centralized. Until now, no single railroad has had enough control to tilt the playing field. <h3>Why the merger changes everything </h3>The combined Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern network would span nearly 60% of US rail route miles across 43 states, likely making them TTX’s largest shareholder by a significant margin. On paper, neutrality is guaranteed through the STB’s pooling agreement. In practice, concentration of influence can change incentives subtly, but powerfully. Who prioritizes which lanes for car replacement? Who decides where limited heavy-duty flats or autoracks are deployed first? When I was at Maersk negotiating large-scale rail contracts, we constantly ran into a black hole of visibility. Equipment was technically available, but no one could pinpoint where it was or who controlled the next move. The pooling model made coordination possible, but it also made accountability diffuse. Now imagine that opacity combined with ownership concentration. A railroad controlling the largest stake in TTX doesn’t need to explicitly starve competitors of equipment. It just needs to optimize for its own network first. Repairs get prioritized in its lanes. New equipment gets spec’d for its corridors. Allocation algorithms favor its terminals. The result isn’t dramatic — it’s death by a thousand micro-decisions that tilt velocity in one direction. <h3>What gravity looks like </h3>Every time a major shipper changes carriers, the math inside the TTX pool shifts. Steel doesn’t teleport. Cars must physically migrate through the network, a process that can take weeks. Shortages often follow commercial wins because the new carrier gains the freight before it gains the equipment. Even in a neutral pool, gravity takes time to reset. Post-merger, that shock absorption could become selective. If car allocation subtly favors the combined UP-NS lanes, competitors lose not just freight; they lose the equipment velocity needed to compete for the next contract. <h3>What the STB should do </h3>The STB received formal notice of the merger on July 30, 2025. The railroads plan to file their full application by Jan. 29, 2026, triggering a 16-month statutory review. The STB has broad authority to preserve equilibrium through independent TTX governance, fleet-allocation audits and service-performance metrics tied to pooling access. Whether those powers are used will determine if TTX remains the stabilizer it was built to be, or becomes another lever of competitive advantage hidden inside consolidation. The 1996 Union Pacific-Southern Pacific merger produced what the head of the nation’s largest rail union called a “massive meltdown.” Service disruptions lasted months. The STB should apply those lessons to equipment pooling now, before approval — not after the damage is done. <h3>What shippers should ask now </h3>Most customers never deal directly with TTX, but they feel its influence in every service metric. Don’t wait until after the merger is approved. Start asking pointed questions now: How do you measure car velocity in my lanes? Who controls the pool cars that serve my freight? What protections ensure neutrality if ownership concentration shifts? If your railroad can’t answer clearly, you’re not buying transportation, you’re buying uncertainty. <h3>The bottom line </h3>TTX doesn’t appear in marketing campaigns, but its model — shared steel, shared access — keeps the industry balanced. The merger debate has focused on jobs, rates and service promises. But the real test will be whether a system designed for competition can survive when one player holds the dominant stake. Because when the pool tips, everyone feels it. And once gravity shifts, it doesn’t shift back. Paul Tonsager has held executive roles at Maersk, CN Rail, CN Worldwide, Coyote (RXO), and Patriot Rail. He is the founder of Integrated Multimodal Solutions LLC and author of the Substack newsletter Signals &amp; Switches. Contact him at  <a href="mailto:paul.tonsager@multimodalsolutions.io">paul.tonsager@multimodalsolutions.io</a>. </div>

When your railroad says “no cars available,” the problem usually isn’t a shortage. It’s a cooperative most shippers have never heard of — one that controls nearly every intermodal container, autorack and flatcar in North America. And if the proposed Union Pacific (UP)–Norfolk Southern (NS) merger proceeds, the balance of power inside that cooperative could shift dramatically. That cooperative is TTX Company. While shippers and unions debate potential service disruptions and job losses from the $85 billion merger announced in July, a more fundamental question has gone unasked: What happens when one railroad becomes the dominant voice in the industry’s shared equipment pool? The system you didn’t know existed TTX manages approximately 177,000 well cars, flats, autoracks and boxcars, representing about $17 billion in assets. It’s a neutral pool owned collectively by the Class I railroads, operating under Surface Transportation Board (STB) oversight since 1974. The concept is simple: Competing railroads share rolling stock rather than hoarding it. When a car finishes one move, it can be loaded again immediately, regardless of whose track it’s on next. This model has saved the industry billions in duplicate investment and given shippers a measure of reliability in an otherwise fragmented system. Cars flow to demand, not ownership. Repairs are standardized. Procurement is centralized. Until now, no single railroad has had enough control to tilt the playing field. Why the merger changes everything The combined Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern network would span nearly 60% of US rail route miles across 43 states, likely making them TTX’s largest shareholder by a significant margin. On paper, neutrality is guaranteed through the STB’s pooling agreement. In practice, concentration of influence can change incentives subtly, but powerfully. Who prioritizes which lanes for car replacement? Who decides where limited heavy-duty flats or autoracks are deployed first? When I was at Maersk negotiating large-scale rail contracts, we constantly ran into a black hole of visibility. Equipment was technically available, but no one could pinpoint where it was or who controlled the next move. The pooling model made coordination possible, but it also made accountability diffuse. Now imagine that opacity combined with ownership concentration. A railroad controlling the largest stake in TTX doesn’t need to explicitly starve competitors of equipment. It just needs to optimize for its own network first. Repairs get prioritized in its lanes. New equipment gets spec’d for its corridors. Allocation algorithms favor its terminals. The result isn’t dramatic — it’s death by a thousand micro-decisions that tilt velocity in one direction. What gravity looks like Every time a major shipper changes carriers, the math inside the TTX pool shifts. Steel doesn’t teleport. Cars must physically migrate through the network, a process that can take weeks. Shortages often follow commercial wins because the new carrier gains the freight before it gains the equipment. Even in a neutral pool, gravity takes time to reset. Post-merger, that shock absorption could become selective. If car allocation subtly favors the combined UP-NS lanes, competitors lose not just freight; they lose the equipment velocity needed to compete for the next contract. What the STB should do The STB received formal notice of the merger on July 30, 2025. The railroads plan to file their full application by Jan. 29, 2026, triggering a 16-month statutory review. The STB has broad authority to preserve equilibrium through independent TTX governance, fleet-allocation audits and service-performance metrics tied to pooling access. Whether those powers are used will determine if TTX remains the stabilizer it was built to be, or becomes another lever of competitive advantage hidden inside consolidation. The 1996 Union Pacific-Southern Pacific merger produced what the head of the nation’s largest rail union called a “massive meltdown.” Service disruptions lasted months. The STB should apply those lessons to equipment pooling now, before approval — not after the damage is done. What shippers should ask now Most customers never deal directly with TTX, but they feel its influence in every service metric. Don’t wait until after the merger is approved. Start asking pointed questions now: How do you measure car velocity in my lanes? Who controls the pool cars that serve my freight? What protections ensure neutrality if ownership concentration shifts? If your railroad can’t answer clearly, you’re not buying transportation, you’re buying uncertainty. The bottom line TTX doesn’t appear in marketing campaigns, but its model — shared steel, shared access — keeps the industry balanced. The merger debate has focused on jobs, rates and service promises. But the real test will be whether a system designed for competition can survive when one player holds the dominant stake. Because when the pool tips, everyone feels it. And once gravity shifts, it doesn’t shift back. Paul Tonsager has held executive roles at Maersk, CN Rail, CN Worldwide, Coyote (RXO), and Patriot Rail. He is the founder of Integrated Multimodal Solutions LLC and author of the Substack newsletter Signals & Switches. Contact him at   paul.tonsager@multimodalsolutions.io .

UP-NS merger could mean new dominant voice inside rail industry cooperative

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The LTL world of 2025 does not reward those who guess, but rather those who know — and knowing begins with visibility. </div>

The LTL world of 2025 does not reward those who guess, but rather those who know — and knowing begins with visibility.

<div class="phx-topic">The US less-than-truckload (LTL) sector stands at a critical crossroads. Faced with depressed demand, high operating costs, economic uncertainty and rising customer expectations, LTL carriers, brokers and shippers are under mounting pressure to do more with less. Efficiency, accuracy and transparency have never been more vital. Even as some aspects of LTL have modernized, persistent blind spots still drain time, revenue and customer satisfaction. Accessorial management and location visibility remain at the heart of operational performance and profitability in the LTL sector, and companies must solve these challenges to thrive in this freight environment. Accessorial charges are often treated as the fine print of freight, but their financial impact is anything but small. These additional fees, covering services such as liftgate usage, residential delivery, limited-access sites and inside delivery are frequently not accounted for until after a delivery is completed. At that point, shippers receive unexpected invoices, brokers scramble to reconcile charges, and carriers are left fielding disputes that strain valuable relationships and negatively impact their bottom line. Without an accurate, upfront method of identifying potential accessorials, companies lose control over cost predictability. This unpredictability does more than damage budgets. It undermines long-term rate negotiations and muddies performance metrics such as cost per shipment and gross margin. Billing disputes over accessorials can also slow down cash flow and stretch out time-to-payment cycles. As the logistics sector faces tighter margins and rising customer expectations, these seemingly minor charges can add up to major financial consequences. Location data is another underestimated factor that directly impacts LTL performance. While most transportation management systems (TMSs) offer basic shipment tracking, they often lack granular location insights. This includes data points such as whether a site is residential or commercial, whether there is dock access or a forklift onsite, or if the delivery site has limited hours or requires specialized entry. These details may seem minor, but their absence leads to service mismatches, re-delivery attempts, extended dwell times and more accessorial charges. For example, failing to flag a residential delivery that requires a liftgate can result in a surprise fee and an unhappy customer. A shipment bound for a military base or an airport without the right equipment or credentials can create costly delays and failed deliveries. Inaccurate or incomplete location information does more than increase costs — it erodes operational agility. <h3>Technology can ease challenges </h3>The good news is that technology now exists to solve these challenges at scale. New platforms that leverage AI, machine learning and geospatial data are transforming how logistics professionals manage LTL freight. These tools can identify potential accessorial charges before the freight is tendered, analyze delivery site characteristics in real time and deliver a unified accessorial view across all stakeholders. By automating accessorial identification during order entry and integrating precise location attributes such as limited access, loading dock availability, forklifts on site or gated entry, these platforms allow teams to move from reactive firefighting to proactive planning. With real-time alerts and API integrations that connect directly into a TMS, shippers, brokers and carriers can operate from a shared source of accessorial truth. The impact of smarter accessorial identification and location visibility delivers measurable results. Companies that have adopted these advanced solutions have reported a 75% reduction in unexpected accessorial fees, leading to cleaner invoices and faster dispute resolution. Customers have also seen improved on-time in-full (OTIF) performance, driving higher customer satisfaction and stronger service-level agreement (SLA) compliance. This shift is particularly timely in 2025, as the LTL industry grapples with economic volatility, rising operating costs and major classification changes. Freight volumes are inconsistent, carriers are prioritizing profitability over market share, and the new National Motor Freight Traffic Association density-based classification system is forcing shippers to re-evaluate how they package and price freight. In this environment, hidden costs such as accessorials and inefficiencies tied to poor location visibility can erode already thin margins. With shifting demand, cost inflation and operational headwinds, the ability to forecast costs, identify risks and plan accordingly has become a key competitive advantage. In the past, accessorial management and granular location visibility may have been viewed as optional enhancements. Today, they are essential for any company that relies on LTL shipping as a core part of its logistics strategy. When customer expectations are rising and disruptions are the new norm, having visibility into every shipment detail and every delivery site is table stakes. The LTL world of 2025 does not reward those who guess. It rewards those who know, and knowing begins with visibility. North Winship is president of Shiplify. Contact him at <a href="mailto:northw@shiplify.com">northw@shiplify.com</a>. Bart De Muynck is a strategic advisor for Drewry. Contact him at <a href="mailto:bart@bartdemuynck.com">bart@bartdemuynck.com</a>. </div>

The US less-than-truckload (LTL) sector stands at a critical crossroads. Faced with depressed demand, high operating costs, economic uncertainty and rising customer expectations, LTL carriers, brokers and shippers are under mounting pressure to do more with less. Efficiency, accuracy and transparency have never been more vital. Even as some aspects of LTL have modernized, persistent blind spots still drain time, revenue and customer satisfaction. Accessorial management and location visibility remain at the heart of operational performance and profitability in the LTL sector, and companies must solve these challenges to thrive in this freight environment. Accessorial charges are often treated as the fine print of freight, but their financial impact is anything but small. These additional fees, covering services such as liftgate usage, residential delivery, limited-access sites and inside delivery are frequently not accounted for until after a delivery is completed. At that point, shippers receive unexpected invoices, brokers scramble to reconcile charges, and carriers are left fielding disputes that strain valuable relationships and negatively impact their bottom line. Without an accurate, upfront method of identifying potential accessorials, companies lose control over cost predictability. This unpredictability does more than damage budgets. It undermines long-term rate negotiations and muddies performance metrics such as cost per shipment and gross margin. Billing disputes over accessorials can also slow down cash flow and stretch out time-to-payment cycles. As the logistics sector faces tighter margins and rising customer expectations, these seemingly minor charges can add up to major financial consequences. Location data is another underestimated factor that directly impacts LTL performance. While most transportation management systems (TMSs) offer basic shipment tracking, they often lack granular location insights. This includes data points such as whether a site is residential or commercial, whether there is dock access or a forklift onsite, or if the delivery site has limited hours or requires specialized entry. These details may seem minor, but their absence leads to service mismatches, re-delivery attempts, extended dwell times and more accessorial charges. For example, failing to flag a residential delivery that requires a liftgate can result in a surprise fee and an unhappy customer. A shipment bound for a military base or an airport without the right equipment or credentials can create costly delays and failed deliveries. Inaccurate or incomplete location information does more than increase costs — it erodes operational agility. Technology can ease challenges The good news is that technology now exists to solve these challenges at scale. New platforms that leverage AI, machine learning and geospatial data are transforming how logistics professionals manage LTL freight. These tools can identify potential accessorial charges before the freight is tendered, analyze delivery site characteristics in real time and deliver a unified accessorial view across all stakeholders. By automating accessorial identification during order entry and integrating precise location attributes such as limited access, loading dock availability, forklifts on site or gated entry, these platforms allow teams to move from reactive firefighting to proactive planning. With real-time alerts and API integrations that connect directly into a TMS, shippers, brokers and carriers can operate from a shared source of accessorial truth. The impact of smarter accessorial identification and location visibility delivers measurable results. Companies that have adopted these advanced solutions have reported a 75% reduction in unexpected accessorial fees, leading to cleaner invoices and faster dispute resolution. Customers have also seen improved on-time in-full (OTIF) performance, driving higher customer satisfaction and stronger service-level agreement (SLA) compliance. This shift is particularly timely in 2025, as the LTL industry grapples with economic volatility, rising operating costs and major classification changes. Freight volumes are inconsistent, carriers are prioritizing profitability over market share, and the new National Motor Freight Traffic Association density-based classification system is forcing shippers to re-evaluate how they package and price freight. In this environment, hidden costs such as accessorials and inefficiencies tied to poor location visibility can erode already thin margins. With shifting demand, cost inflation and operational headwinds, the ability to forecast costs, identify risks and plan accordingly has become a key competitive advantage. In the past, accessorial management and granular location visibility may have been viewed as optional enhancements. Today, they are essential for any company that relies on LTL shipping as a core part of its logistics strategy. When customer expectations are rising and disruptions are the new norm, having visibility into every shipment detail and every delivery site is table stakes. The LTL world of 2025 does not reward those who guess. It rewards those who know, and knowing begins with visibility. North Winship is president of Shiplify. Contact him at northw@shiplify.com . Bart De Muynck is a strategic advisor for Drewry. Contact him at bart@bartdemuynck.com .

Trucking News

Visibility transforming accessorial and location insights in LTL shipping

Notes: Index base = 100; the higher the value, the greater intermodal savings compared with truckload

Spot ISI

Contract ISI

The Journal of Commerce Intermodal Savings Indices (ISIs) measure the average differential between rates for US domestic intermodal rail and truckload service — both spot and contract — across 120 lanes by sending estimates to third-party logistics providers (3PLs) and shippers to review. The estimates include margins and fuel but exclude accessorial charges such as detention, demurrage (storage fees), excessive per diem, lumper fees and other fees. ISI data partners include DAT Freight & Analytics, the International Association of North America (IANA), InTek Freight and Logistics, Loadsmart, and Sunset Transport.

US Spot and Contract Intermodal Savings Indices (JOC)

JOC Intermodal Savings Index Rolling 3-Month Average Gateway

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">LTL carriers are reining in capital spending on property, holding new terminals and doors in reserve as they await a hoped-for turnaround in freight demand in 2026. </div>

LTL carriers are reining in capital spending on property, holding new terminals and doors in reserve as they await a hoped-for turnaround in freight demand in 2026.

<div class="phx-topic">The less-than-truckload (LTL) land rush in the US is nearing its end as bankrupt Yellow runs out of terminals to sell and potential buyers run out of freight to fill them. Despite the sale of <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/yellow-terminal-auction-redrawing-us-ltl-map-as-pricing-surge-subsides-5222598">hundreds of properties</a> and the construction of many new terminals over the last two years, the LTL sector still has less capacity than it did before Yellow’s collapse in 2023. That capacity shortfall has supported higher LTL pricing. The US long-distance LTL producer price index, a measure of all-inclusive pricing, was up 10.5% year over year in August, before the US government shutdown. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="b8bff0bb-e602-4052-88a8-7955d25f97d2"></dynamic-object></div>“If you look at pre-Yellow and post-Yellow, the number of doors is down about 6%,” Mario Harik, XPO CEO, told the Journal of Commerce. “The number of terminals is down by a similar amount.” Compared with 2020, however, LTL capacity is down about 10%, Harik said. Demand for LTL freight services, however, is dropping, too, with publicly-owned LTL carriers reporting a year-over-year <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/top-ltl-carriers-maintain-profit-while-planning-paths-to-freight-recovery-6105968">decline in daily shipments</a>. A bleak freight outlook has carriers putting network expansion plans on hold, or at least slowing them down. “We haven’t opened any service centers this year,” Adam Satterfield, CFO of Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), told analysts during a third-quarter earnings call last week. That’s a unique statement coming from an LTL executive. ODFL — the second-largest US LTL provider ranked by revenue — was one of the few large LTL carriers to abstain from the rush to buy terminals from bankrupt Yellow in 2023 and 2024. “I think we’ve opened six service centers going back to the end of 2022, so we definitely have built up some capacity,” Satterfield said. In contrast, Saia has opened 39 terminals since 2022 and 17 in the past year, most of them purchased from Yellow. Estes Express Lines purchased 37 owned and leased terminals from Yellow since 2022, and XPO acquired 28 Yellow terminals. Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, R+L Carriers, ArcBest’s ABF Freight System, Central Transport, Pitt Ohio, A. Duie Pyle and <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ltl-carriers-expanding-us-networks-despite-low-freight-demand-6053685">Roadrunner</a> all joined the real estate rush. That rush has now slowed to a trickle. Yellow had four carrier subsidiaries with 308 terminals at the end of 2022. Through partnerships with Ducera and CBRE, Yellow reached out to approximately 650 potential buyers and entered nondisclosure agreements with 400 of them, according to court filings. As of October, the company had just eight facilities left, according to bankruptcy court filings, including a 426-door facility in Chicago Heights, Illinois. ArcBest purchased an 18-door Montgomery, Alabama, terminal from Yellow in October for $375,000, and three other facilities were acquired by real estate developers. <h3>Slowing down </h3>Yellow’s bankruptcy was the opportunity of a generation for competitors that had plenty of cash but were hemmed in when it came to property needed to expand. “Our nationwide footprint allows us to build deeper relationships with customers, and we’re seeing the benefit of the investments made in our network,” Saia President and CEO Frederick Holzgrefe said during an earnings call last week. Saia’s new terminals have contributed a proportionally greater share of freight than its existing properties and likely helped Saia limit its year-over-year decline in daily shipment volume to 1.9% in the third quarter. And its expansion isn’t done, CFO Matthew Batteh said during the call. “We still have opportunities and dots we need to put on the map,” he said. But Saia sees slow growth ahead, and that will temper its expectations for expansion. “We’re slowing capital investment ... and making sure we’re in a position to take advantage of the opportunities that will inevitably be there for us,” Holzgrefe said. Knight-Swift, which leaped into the LTL market in 2021 with the <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/knight-swift-combining-ltl-subsidiaries-to-form-one-carrier-under-act-brand-6102388">purchase of AAA Cooper Transportation</a> and purchased more than 25 terminals from Yellow, opened one new service center in the third quarter and replaced two smaller sites with larger facilities. “We still feel very encouraged that we’ll see growth in our existing network that we have without opening many properties here in the near term,” CEO Adam Miller said last week. ODFL is holding some planned terminals and capacity “in reserve,” said Satterfield. “We just think it’s more appropriate to hold them out versus increasing the number of service centers in operation, which increases line-haul expense, weakens your density even further and puts more pressure on the costs,” he told analysts. But Satterfield also believes there is less LTL capacity available today, even with excess capacity running as high as 30% in ODFL’s network. “I think what we know was a capacity-constrained environment in 2022 will be even more capacity constrained when we do eventually get into the upcycle,” he said. Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The less-than-truckload (LTL) land rush in the US is nearing its end as bankrupt Yellow runs out of terminals to sell and potential buyers run out of freight to fill them. Despite the sale of hundreds of properties and the construction of many new terminals over the last two years, the LTL sector still has less capacity than it did before Yellow’s collapse in 2023. That capacity shortfall has supported higher LTL pricing. The US long-distance LTL producer price index, a measure of all-inclusive pricing, was up 10.5% year over year in August, before the US government shutdown. “If you look at pre-Yellow and post-Yellow, the number of doors is down about 6%,” Mario Harik, XPO CEO, told the Journal of Commerce. “The number of terminals is down by a similar amount.” Compared with 2020, however, LTL capacity is down about 10%, Harik said. Demand for LTL freight services, however, is dropping, too, with publicly-owned LTL carriers reporting a year-over-year decline in daily shipments . A bleak freight outlook has carriers putting network expansion plans on hold, or at least slowing them down. “We haven’t opened any service centers this year,” Adam Satterfield, CFO of Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), told analysts during a third-quarter earnings call last week. That’s a unique statement coming from an LTL executive. ODFL — the second-largest US LTL provider ranked by revenue — was one of the few large LTL carriers to abstain from the rush to buy terminals from bankrupt Yellow in 2023 and 2024. “I think we’ve opened six service centers going back to the end of 2022, so we definitely have built up some capacity,” Satterfield said. In contrast, Saia has opened 39 terminals since 2022 and 17 in the past year, most of them purchased from Yellow. Estes Express Lines purchased 37 owned and leased terminals from Yellow since 2022, and XPO acquired 28 Yellow terminals. Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, R+L Carriers, ArcBest’s ABF Freight System, Central Transport, Pitt Ohio, A. Duie Pyle and Roadrunner all joined the real estate rush. That rush has now slowed to a trickle. Yellow had four carrier subsidiaries with 308 terminals at the end of 2022. Through partnerships with Ducera and CBRE, Yellow reached out to approximately 650 potential buyers and entered nondisclosure agreements with 400 of them, according to court filings. As of October, the company had just eight facilities left, according to bankruptcy court filings, including a 426-door facility in Chicago Heights, Illinois. ArcBest purchased an 18-door Montgomery, Alabama, terminal from Yellow in October for $375,000, and three other facilities were acquired by real estate developers. Slowing down Yellow’s bankruptcy was the opportunity of a generation for competitors that had plenty of cash but were hemmed in when it came to property needed to expand. “Our nationwide footprint allows us to build deeper relationships with customers, and we’re seeing the benefit of the investments made in our network,” Saia President and CEO Frederick Holzgrefe said during an earnings call last week. Saia’s new terminals have contributed a proportionally greater share of freight than its existing properties and likely helped Saia limit its year-over-year decline in daily shipment volume to 1.9% in the third quarter. And its expansion isn’t done, CFO Matthew Batteh said during the call. “We still have opportunities and dots we need to put on the map,” he said. But Saia sees slow growth ahead, and that will temper its expectations for expansion. “We’re slowing capital investment ... and making sure we’re in a position to take advantage of the opportunities that will inevitably be there for us,” Holzgrefe said. Knight-Swift, which leaped into the LTL market in 2021 with the purchase of AAA Cooper Transportation and purchased more than 25 terminals from Yellow, opened one new service center in the third quarter and replaced two smaller sites with larger facilities. “We still feel very encouraged that we’ll see growth in our existing network that we have without opening many properties here in the near term,” CEO Adam Miller said last week. ODFL is holding some planned terminals and capacity “in reserve,” said Satterfield. “We just think it’s more appropriate to hold them out versus increasing the number of service centers in operation, which increases line-haul expense, weakens your density even further and puts more pressure on the costs,” he told analysts. But Satterfield also believes there is less LTL capacity available today, even with excess capacity running as high as 30% in ODFL’s network. “I think what we know was a capacity-constrained environment in 2022 will be even more capacity constrained when we do eventually get into the upcycle,” he said. Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .

US LTL ‘land rush’ reaches its end amid long-term freight decline

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Even another round of US tariffs and ongoing geopolitical concerns would be unlikely to blunt the growth, with airlines able to rapidly adjust capacity to support shifting trade flows, delegates at a global air cargo forum were told.</div>

Even another round of US tariffs and ongoing geopolitical concerns would be unlikely to blunt the growth, with airlines able to rapidly adjust capacity to support shifting trade flows, delegates at a global air cargo forum were told.

<div class="phx-topic">ABU DHABI — Global air cargo recorded its 26th consecutive month of growth in October, with solid demand across leading air freight verticals expected to continue into 2026, air cargo executives say. Even another round of US tariffs and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty would be unlikely to stop this growth, with airlines able to rapidly adjust capacity to support another shift in trade flows, delegates at The International Air Cargo Association’s (Tiaca’s) annual Air Cargo Forum were told Tuesday. “We have had such a long stretch when it comes to air freight growth,” said Stefan Krikken, global head of air freight at forwarder DSV. “The peak is relatively slow this year, but there’s still a lot of positive momentum in cloud computing, e-commerce, [and] aerospace, as well as the trade shifts. “The verticals in air freight are becoming more sophisticated and demanding ... the shifts into Southeast Asia markets, like Vietnam, Thailand, [and] the Indian subcontinent are really giving us opportunities to create new solutions, so it is looking very positive for 2026,” Krikken added Ryan Keyrouse, CEO of air freight analyst Rotate, warned that the 26 months of uninterrupted growth could not continue forever, but he agreed there were “quite some reasons” to be optimistic. “The US inventory-to-sales ratio has been positive for seven of the last eight months, a good sign for air cargo,” Keyrouse told the Tiaca forum. “Freighter utilization in October was also at a record 15 block hours per day on average, which is another sign of solid demand.” Global volume from January through October is up 3.9% year over year while capacity expanded 6%, Rotate data shows. But the shift in trade as China focused on other markets has left lanes out of Vietnam and Malaysia facing significant capacity pressure. Still, there are areas of concern in global air freight. On the “caution” side of the scale, Keyrouse placed steadily improving ocean schedule reliability that is pushing down rates and attracting discretionary cargo to switch from air freight. Also among trade destabilizing factors are the unpredictable US tariffs, and although Keyrouse agreed the tariffs introduced uncertainty into cargo markets, he argued that carriers were able to quickly move freighters around as demand shifted away from China-US routes after the Trump administration announced its broad global tariffs on April 2. “The US tariff uncertainty is a reason to be unsure, and who knows what could happen next on any given morning, but we’ve had tariffs this year and it’s only shifted supply chains,” Keyrouse said. “The aircraft industry has proven itself to be resilient in shifting capacity and just continuing to grow.” <h3>Good year expected for air cargo </h3>The positive expectation for 2026 was repeated often at the Tiaca conference. Martin Drew, chief strategy and transformation officer at Atlas Air Worldwide, said some of the volume that left the trans-Pacific is now returning as complex customs clearance formalities following the removal of US de minimis exemptions were being ironed out. Jeroen Giling, senior vice president of cargo for continental Europe at Swissport, said 2025 started slowly with the China-US tariffs on low-value e-commerce goods roiling the market, but activity has steadily picked up on other trades. “The e-commerce from China into the US slowed with a massive [shift] to Europe, and we have seen a huge amount of business with the expectations for 2026 more positive,” he said. Other market players have been untouched by the US tariff-driven volatility in demand. Taiwan-based Morrison Express CEO Asok Kumar noted the all-cargo carrier was headquartered in the semiconductor capital of the world. “We’re in a very privileged position and our company has not seen a decline in volume this year,” Kumar said. “We’re in a very sweet spot in terms of our position and we’re very optimistic for next year.” Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

ABU DHABI — Global air cargo recorded its 26th consecutive month of growth in October, with solid demand across leading air freight verticals expected to continue into 2026, air cargo executives say. Even another round of US tariffs and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty would be unlikely to stop this growth, with airlines able to rapidly adjust capacity to support another shift in trade flows, delegates at The International Air Cargo Association’s (Tiaca’s) annual Air Cargo Forum were told Tuesday. “We have had such a long stretch when it comes to air freight growth,” said Stefan Krikken, global head of air freight at forwarder DSV. “The peak is relatively slow this year, but there’s still a lot of positive momentum in cloud computing, e-commerce, [and] aerospace, as well as the trade shifts. “The verticals in air freight are becoming more sophisticated and demanding ... the shifts into Southeast Asia markets, like Vietnam, Thailand, [and] the Indian subcontinent are really giving us opportunities to create new solutions, so it is looking very positive for 2026,” Krikken added Ryan Keyrouse, CEO of air freight analyst Rotate, warned that the 26 months of uninterrupted growth could not continue forever, but he agreed there were “quite some reasons” to be optimistic. “The US inventory-to-sales ratio has been positive for seven of the last eight months, a good sign for air cargo,” Keyrouse told the Tiaca forum. “Freighter utilization in October was also at a record 15 block hours per day on average, which is another sign of solid demand.” Global volume from January through October is up 3.9% year over year while capacity expanded 6%, Rotate data shows. But the shift in trade as China focused on other markets has left lanes out of Vietnam and Malaysia facing significant capacity pressure. Still, there are areas of concern in global air freight. On the “caution” side of the scale, Keyrouse placed steadily improving ocean schedule reliability that is pushing down rates and attracting discretionary cargo to switch from air freight. Also among trade destabilizing factors are the unpredictable US tariffs, and although Keyrouse agreed the tariffs introduced uncertainty into cargo markets, he argued that carriers were able to quickly move freighters around as demand shifted away from China-US routes after the Trump administration announced its broad global tariffs on April 2. “The US tariff uncertainty is a reason to be unsure, and who knows what could happen next on any given morning, but we’ve had tariffs this year and it’s only shifted supply chains,” Keyrouse said. “The aircraft industry has proven itself to be resilient in shifting capacity and just continuing to grow.” Good year expected for air cargo The positive expectation for 2026 was repeated often at the Tiaca conference. Martin Drew, chief strategy and transformation officer at Atlas Air Worldwide, said some of the volume that left the trans-Pacific is now returning as complex customs clearance formalities following the removal of US de minimis exemptions were being ironed out. Jeroen Giling, senior vice president of cargo for continental Europe at Swissport, said 2025 started slowly with the China-US tariffs on low-value e-commerce goods roiling the market, but activity has steadily picked up on other trades. “The e-commerce from China into the US slowed with a massive [shift] to Europe, and we have seen a huge amount of business with the expectations for 2026 more positive,” he said. Other market players have been untouched by the US tariff-driven volatility in demand. Taiwan-based Morrison Express CEO Asok Kumar noted the all-cargo carrier was headquartered in the semiconductor capital of the world. “We’re in a very privileged position and our company has not seen a decline in volume this year,” Kumar said. “We’re in a very sweet spot in terms of our position and we’re very optimistic for next year.” Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Air Cargo Carriers News

Air Cargo

Air freight growth remains solid as verticals support nonstop momentum

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Beijing is expected to soon announce the start date of its own 12-month pause on reciprocal port fees on US ships, a deal that was agreed to last week as part of a broad trade framework hammered out by the two superpowers.</div>

Beijing is expected to soon announce the start date of its own 12-month pause on reciprocal port fees on US ships, a deal that was agreed to last week as part of a broad trade framework hammered out by the two superpowers.

<div class="phx-topic">The year-long pause on US port fees for Chinese-operated or -built ships, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-china-suspend-reciprocal-port-fees-as-part-of-wider-trade-deal-6105849">agreed to last week between US and Chinese officials</a>, will start on Nov. 10, the White House announced Saturday. The move will pave the way for China to lift its retaliatory port fees on US-owned and -controlled vessels, although there was no immediate response from Beijing whether its suspension of port charges will occur on the same day as the US action. But one Hong Kong-based analyst expected China to end its charges on Nov. 10 or shortly after, repeating what happened when China followed the US in imposing reciprocal port call charges on Oct. 14. During the 12-month pause in port fees, “the US will negotiate with China” over Beijing’s alleged dominance in the maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors, the White House statement said, without giving further details. Those talks would take place while the US continued “its historic cooperation with the Republic of Korea and Japan on revitalizing American shipbuilding,” the statement added. The Nov. 10 date was announced in a statement that also gave further details of the trade concessions agreed to by both sides during talks in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on Oct. 26 and confirmed by presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at their meeting in South Korea last Thursday. The broad agreement will see China purchase at least 12 million metric tons of US soybeans during the last two months of this year and buy at least 25 million metric tons a year in 2026, 2027 and 2028. Additionally, China will resume purchases of US sorghum and hardwood logs. China will also suspend all the retaliatory tariffs announced since March 4, including levies “on a vast swath of US agricultural products including chicken, wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables and dairy products,” the White House statement said. China will suspend or remove all retaliatory non-tariff countermeasures taken against the US since March, the statement added. “China will further extend the expiration of its market-based tariff exclusion process for imports from the United States and exclusions will remain valid until Dec. 31, 2026,” the White House said. “China will terminate its various investigations targeting US companies in the semiconductor supply chain, including its antitrust, anti-monopoly, and anti-dumping investigations." The White House did not give any timeframe for China’s implementation of the trade concessions. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="a08410a8-0b00-4c48-9ef6-78b6354f0678"></dynamic-object></div>For its part, the US will end the 10% so-called “fentanyl tariffs” on Nov. 10 and maintain its suspension of heightened reciprocal tariffs on Chinese imports until Nov. 10, 2026. The current 10% reciprocal tariff will remain in effect during the suspension period, the statement said. US imports from China have fallen sharply since mid-year amid the trade dispute. Imports hit 984,280 TEUs in July, the second-highest mark in 2025, then fell in August and September, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. <h3>Questions remain </h3>Despite the US-China deal on port fees, Brian Maloney, a partner at New York-based law firm Seward &amp; Kissel’s maritime and transportation group, said there are still many questions to be answered. “Will this apply to foreign-built vehicle carriers and ro/ro vessels or will the pause apply only to the fees for Chinese-owned, -operated or -built vessels?,” Maloney said. “When will the Chinese response pause kick in, which could matter for vessels actively trading? And will either country extend retroactive relief to Oct. 14?” Lars Jensen, CEO of consultant Vespucci Maritime and a Journal of Commerce contributor, said the lower tariffs open a window of opportunity for US shippers. “The question is whether it will prompt a boost in shipments — effectively pulling the seasonal boost from Chinese New Year forward by more than a month,” Jensen said <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7391046713332875264/">in a LinkedIn post Monday</a>. “The coming weeks will show whether this is going to happen, or whether US importers see the upside of lower tariffs more than counteracted by a risk of consumer spending slowdown in the US.” Jensen pointed out that shippers will have to go through the details of how the deal impacts them specifically. “But it is important to note here that almost all US actions are temporary in the sense that actions are merely paused until Nov. 10, 2026,” he wrote. “This means that more trade talks will have to happen prior to that date, and with this comes the risk of more changes [positive or negative]." Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>. </div>

The year-long pause on US port fees for Chinese-operated or -built ships, agreed to last week between US and Chinese officials , will start on Nov. 10, the White House announced Saturday. The move will pave the way for China to lift its retaliatory port fees on US-owned and -controlled vessels, although there was no immediate response from Beijing whether its suspension of port charges will occur on the same day as the US action. But one Hong Kong-based analyst expected China to end its charges on Nov. 10 or shortly after, repeating what happened when China followed the US in imposing reciprocal port call charges on Oct. 14. During the 12-month pause in port fees, “the US will negotiate with China” over Beijing’s alleged dominance in the maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors, the White House statement said, without giving further details. Those talks would take place while the US continued “its historic cooperation with the Republic of Korea and Japan on revitalizing American shipbuilding,” the statement added. The Nov. 10 date was announced in a statement that also gave further details of the trade concessions agreed to by both sides during talks in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on Oct. 26 and confirmed by presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at their meeting in South Korea last Thursday. The broad agreement will see China purchase at least 12 million metric tons of US soybeans during the last two months of this year and buy at least 25 million metric tons a year in 2026, 2027 and 2028. Additionally, China will resume purchases of US sorghum and hardwood logs. China will also suspend all the retaliatory tariffs announced since March 4, including levies “on a vast swath of US agricultural products including chicken, wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables and dairy products,” the White House statement said. China will suspend or remove all retaliatory non-tariff countermeasures taken against the US since March, the statement added. “China will further extend the expiration of its market-based tariff exclusion process for imports from the United States and exclusions will remain valid until Dec. 31, 2026,” the White House said. “China will terminate its various investigations targeting US companies in the semiconductor supply chain, including its antitrust, anti-monopoly, and anti-dumping investigations." The White House did not give any timeframe for China’s implementation of the trade concessions. For its part, the US will end the 10% so-called “fentanyl tariffs” on Nov. 10 and maintain its suspension of heightened reciprocal tariffs on Chinese imports until Nov. 10, 2026. The current 10% reciprocal tariff will remain in effect during the suspension period, the statement said. US imports from China have fallen sharply since mid-year amid the trade dispute. Imports hit 984,280 TEUs in July, the second-highest mark in 2025, then fell in August and September, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Questions remain Despite the US-China deal on port fees, Brian Maloney, a partner at New York-based law firm Seward & Kissel’s maritime and transportation group, said there are still many questions to be answered. “Will this apply to foreign-built vehicle carriers and ro/ro vessels or will the pause apply only to the fees for Chinese-owned, -operated or -built vessels?,” Maloney said. “When will the Chinese response pause kick in, which could matter for vessels actively trading? And will either country extend retroactive relief to Oct. 14?” Lars Jensen, CEO of consultant Vespucci Maritime and a Journal of Commerce contributor, said the lower tariffs open a window of opportunity for US shippers. “The question is whether it will prompt a boost in shipments — effectively pulling the seasonal boost from Chinese New Year forward by more than a month,” Jensen said in a LinkedIn post Monday . “The coming weeks will show whether this is going to happen, or whether US importers see the upside of lower tariffs more than counteracted by a risk of consumer spending slowdown in the US.” Jensen pointed out that shippers will have to go through the details of how the deal impacts them specifically. “But it is important to note here that almost all US actions are temporary in the sense that actions are merely paused until Nov. 10, 2026,” he wrote. “This means that more trade talks will have to happen prior to that date, and with this comes the risk of more changes [positive or negative]." Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

Year-long pause on US port fees targeting China vessels to start Nov. 10

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The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

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Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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Filling the Supply Chain Education Gap with LTL Education Courses

In 1995, we began operations with a clear vision: to grow alongside Mexico and connect the world through our terminals. Our priority has always been to deliver excellence in service, foster economic development, and strengthen our communities. We firmly believe that progress is not only measured in tons of cargo moved, but in the opportunities we create. _______________________________________________________________ This year marks a significant milestone: SSA Marine Mexico celebrates 30 years of presence in the country, having established itself from day one as the leading port operator nationwide. Over the past three decades, we have built a legacy of reliability, innovation, and commitment to Mexico’s growth. Our journey has been defined by continuous evolution and a steadfast dedication to our mission. SSA Marine México currently operates in six of the country’s most important ports: Cozumel, Lazaro Cardenas, Manzanillo, Progreso, Tuxpan, and Veracruz. Additionally, we have signed a concession to operate a new multipurpose terminal in Guaymas, Sonora, expanding our footprint to the north of the country. We serve a wide range of segments including containers, general cargo, automobiles, cruise ships, hydrocarbons, and asphalt. As part of this ongoing commitment, SSA Marine Mexico continues to strengthen its infrastructure and capabilities. International trade remains a key driver of global economic growth, and we are proud to support this momentum. Through our continuous improvement strategy, we invest in cutting-edge technology and equipment to deliver more efficient and competitive services, contributing to the success of Mexican businesses. •	Manzanillo, Colima- Specialized Container Terminal I: On October 13, we celebrated the arrival of two new STS (Ship To Shore) Super Post Panamax dockside cranes. This $21.2 million USD investment significantly boosts our operational capacity, streamlining cargo reception and delivery processes. In line with our modernization efforts, we will also retire four of our oldest cranes, paving the way for a more sustainable and technologically advanced fleet that meets the evolving demands of international trade. With these upgrades, SSA Marine México now operates a total of 16 cranes along our 1,350-meter dock, reaffirming our position as a national benchmark in port <span class="joc_admin__inline-image joc_admin__inline-image-aspect-ratio-4_3 joc_admin__inline-image-position-left joc_admin__inline-image-size-large" data-figure-size="large" data-figure-position="left" data-figure-aspect-ratio="4:3"><img src="/content-assets/1760982635607_Manzanillo.jpg" alt="Image provided by SSA Marine" class="joc_admin__inline-image-inherit"> •	As for the Multipurpose Terminal and Specialized Facility, also in Manzanillo, Colima, improvement and conditioning works are planned, along with the acquisition of four E-RTG (Electric Rubber-Tyred Gantry) cranes to enhance operational efficiency and sustainability. •	At our Automobile and General Cargo Terminal in the port of Veracruz, we continue to lead with specialized value-added services that support our clients’ growth. Recent investments include a new washing cabin and a general cargo warehouse, increasing indoor storage capacity by 67%. •	Lazaro Cardenas, Michoacan – Specialized Automobile Terminal: we are working on the development of an additional 4-hectare storage space within our bonded area and a 10-hectare Vehicle Distribution Center (VDC). These enhancements, along with ongoing personnel and system improvements, will reinforce our leadership in automotive handling across the Mexican Pacific coast.<span class="joc_admin__inline-image joc_admin__inline-image-aspect-ratio-4_3 joc_admin__inline-image-position-left joc_admin__inline-image-size-large" data-figure-size="large" data-figure-position="left" data-figure-aspect-ratio="4:3"><img src="/content-assets/1760982742240_Lazaro.jpg" alt="Image provided by SSA Marine" class="joc_admin__inline-image-inherit"> Through these strategic investments, SSA Marine Mexico reaffirms its commitment to the sustained growth of Mexico’s foreign trade. By expanding capacity, modernizing infrastructure, and diversifying services, we continue to strengthen the country’s competitiveness in global logistics. Today, we celebrate three decades of dedication, innovation, and leadership, with deep gratitude to our employees, clients, and partners for being part of this incredible journey. LINK: https://www.ssamarine.mx/<span class="joc_admin__inline-image joc_admin__inline-image-aspect-ratio-16_9 joc_admin__inline-image-position-left joc_admin__inline-image-size-small" data-figure-size="small" data-figure-position="left" data-figure-aspect-ratio="16:9"><img src="/content-assets/1760982787360_SSA%20Marine%20Mexico%20logo%20150pxW.png" alt="" class="joc_admin__inline-image-inherit">

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SSA Marine Mexico: 30 years growing together.

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<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Journal of Commerce Truckload Capacity Index hit an all-time low of 72.4% in the third quarter as big carriers culled trucks, expecting a “challenging” end to 2025. </div>

The Journal of Commerce Truckload Capacity Index hit an all-time low of 72.4% in the third quarter as big carriers culled trucks, expecting a “challenging” end to 2025.

<div class="phx-topic">Large US truckload carriers are cutting into their fleets again, attempting to reduce capacity to match low levels of demand and to fatten thinning profit margins. Additional freight those carriers anticipated in the fourth quarter has yet to arrive on docks. After rising in the second quarter, the Journal of Commerce Truckload Capacity Index dropped 3.6 percentage points to 72.4% in the third quarter, an all-time low for the index, which runs back to the 2008–09 Great Recession. The index dropped 4.2 points year over year. The previous all-time low for the index, which measures capacity in terms of actual truck counts at a group of large publicly-owned carriers, was 73.8% in the 2013 fourth quarter. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="1c27408c-a4a7-4bbf-84f5-4fe3e53846e0"></dynamic-object></div>Large truckload carriers believe even more capacity will leave the overall trucking market, with stricter regulatory enforcement taking out a large, although undefined number of small truckload carriers. Those large carriers continue to shift assets to dedicated business. “We anticipate the fourth quarter to remain challenging, with the continuation of the soft freight market,” James Grant, CFO of Tennessee-based truckload carrier Covenant Logistics, said during a third-quarter earnings call last month. In addition to the overall market softness, Grant cited the US government shutdown, which affects Covenant’s business with the US Department of Defense, and some customer bankruptcies. But Covenant is more bullish about 2026, 2027 and even 2028. “I’m more excited right now than I've ever been in my entire career for the next two to three years,” Covenant CEO David Parker told analysts. The exit of non-English-speaking and non-domiciled drivers is “an avalanche in the process of happening,” he said. Others are still looking for signs that <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/industry-group-calls-for-tougher-licensing-better-training-amid-trucker-crackdown-6101323">increased enforcement</a> of English-language proficiency (ELP) requirements and limits on non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) will amount to an avalanche of exiting low-priced truck capacity. “The impact on truck capacity has got to be more than zero,” Frank Lonegro, president and CEO of Landstar System, said during his company’s earnings call. But he said capacity is “going to come out over a little bit longer time than just a matter of weeks and months.” <h3>Difficulties with data </h3>Matt Muenster, Breakthrough Fuel’s chief economist, believes the impact of tighter truck driver licensing enforcement will be drawn out in a “slow-burn supply-side squeeze” that might take six months to a year to show a significant effect on available capacity. Breakthrough has tracked out-of-service (OOS) orders for ELP violations, and Muenster said the company is seeing 300 to 400 drivers put out of service a week. More than half of the OOS violations are being logged in Texas, near the US-Mexico border, he said. “Locking into data to get guidance on how this plays out is difficult,” Muenster told the Journal of Commerce. “We see a heavy impact on some fleets that have cross-border truckload movements,” especially shipments between Mexico and the US. “We’re not seeing a tremendous impact on the largest truckload fleets in the country,” Muenster said. And in terms of spot market rates, Breakthrough sees “nothing that really moves the needle nationally or regionally” in the immediate future, he said. For now, that makes control over their tractor counts one of the few levers left to those large truckload carriers. Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Large US truckload carriers are cutting into their fleets again, attempting to reduce capacity to match low levels of demand and to fatten thinning profit margins. Additional freight those carriers anticipated in the fourth quarter has yet to arrive on docks. After rising in the second quarter, the Journal of Commerce Truckload Capacity Index dropped 3.6 percentage points to 72.4% in the third quarter, an all-time low for the index, which runs back to the 2008–09 Great Recession. The index dropped 4.2 points year over year. The previous all-time low for the index, which measures capacity in terms of actual truck counts at a group of large publicly-owned carriers, was 73.8% in the 2013 fourth quarter. Large truckload carriers believe even more capacity will leave the overall trucking market, with stricter regulatory enforcement taking out a large, although undefined number of small truckload carriers. Those large carriers continue to shift assets to dedicated business. “We anticipate the fourth quarter to remain challenging, with the continuation of the soft freight market,” James Grant, CFO of Tennessee-based truckload carrier Covenant Logistics, said during a third-quarter earnings call last month. In addition to the overall market softness, Grant cited the US government shutdown, which affects Covenant’s business with the US Department of Defense, and some customer bankruptcies. But Covenant is more bullish about 2026, 2027 and even 2028. “I’m more excited right now than I've ever been in my entire career for the next two to three years,” Covenant CEO David Parker told analysts. The exit of non-English-speaking and non-domiciled drivers is “an avalanche in the process of happening,” he said. Others are still looking for signs that increased enforcement of English-language proficiency (ELP) requirements and limits on non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) will amount to an avalanche of exiting low-priced truck capacity. “The impact on truck capacity has got to be more than zero,” Frank Lonegro, president and CEO of Landstar System, said during his company’s earnings call. But he said capacity is “going to come out over a little bit longer time than just a matter of weeks and months.” Difficulties with data Matt Muenster, Breakthrough Fuel’s chief economist, believes the impact of tighter truck driver licensing enforcement will be drawn out in a “slow-burn supply-side squeeze” that might take six months to a year to show a significant effect on available capacity. Breakthrough has tracked out-of-service (OOS) orders for ELP violations, and Muenster said the company is seeing 300 to 400 drivers put out of service a week. More than half of the OOS violations are being logged in Texas, near the US-Mexico border, he said. “Locking into data to get guidance on how this plays out is difficult,” Muenster told the Journal of Commerce. “We see a heavy impact on some fleets that have cross-border truckload movements,” especially shipments between Mexico and the US. “We’re not seeing a tremendous impact on the largest truckload fleets in the country,” Muenster said. And in terms of spot market rates, Breakthrough sees “nothing that really moves the needle nationally or regionally” in the immediate future, he said. For now, that makes control over their tractor counts one of the few levers left to those large truckload carriers. Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .

Truckload

Large US truckload carriers trim tractor counts to control capacity

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The migration of European carriers away from their traditional foreign “flags of convenience” to India’s emerging market is seen as a major maritime boost for New Delhi as it vigorously seeks private investment to drive economic growth.</div>

The migration of European carriers away from their traditional foreign “flags of convenience” to India’s emerging market is seen as a major maritime boost for New Delhi as it vigorously seeks private investment to drive economic growth.

<div class="phx-topic">Mediterranean Shipping Co. has become the latest major ocean carrier to invest beyond port-to-port shipping and inland logistics operations in India. The world’s largest liner operator has confirmed a program to reflag 12 of its container ships to the Indian registry, <a href="https://nam11.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.joc.com%2Farticle%2Fmaersk-joins-cma-cgm-in-reflagging-container-ships-in-india-amid-antitrust-pressure-6104614&amp;data=05%7C02%7Ckevin.saville2%40spglobal.com%7Ce25119e77e48409f9fd008de1afbe98d%7C8f3e36ea80394b4081a77dc0599e8645%7C1%7C0%7C638977866451687870%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&amp;sdata=ATLTeE4VZiT%2FdEk4u7KDaKfZ6tz6lsNZ648tVwEVkE4%3D&amp;reserved=0">adding to the wave of recent similar flag changes already carried out by CMA CGM and Maersk</a>. In a LinkedIn post Monday, MSC CEO Soren Toft said the planned Indian-flagged fleet operation “strengthens the company’s long-term partnership and support for India’s maritime ambitions.” “India is a key country for MSC, with continued strong development across shipping, ports and logistics,” Toft noted. Details of the vessels to be registered in India were not immediately disclosed. Efforts to seek comment from officials at MSC (India) were unsuccessful. <h3>Boost for New Delhi</h3>MSC’s reflagging move was another key industry investment commitment unfolded at <a href="https://nam11.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.joc.com%2Farticle%2Fdp-world-lines-up-5-billion-investment-program-for-india-expansion-6106499&amp;data=05%7C02%7Ckevin.saville2%40spglobal.com%7Ce25119e77e48409f9fd008de1afbe98d%7C8f3e36ea80394b4081a77dc0599e8645%7C1%7C0%7C638977866451709845%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&amp;sdata=CI4%2FOl11z7UXiroHYAMAqcQMiEMmlWAuZOMn%2FPwT%2F%2FQ%3D&amp;reserved=0">the recent maritime summit in Mumbai.</a> The migration of European carriers away from their traditional cost-saving foreign “flags of convenience” to India’s emerging market is seen as a major maritime boost for New Delhi as it vigorously seeks private investment to drive economic growth through a buildup of manufacturing and export verticals. Additionally, carrier collaborations <a href="https://nam11.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.joc.com%2Farticle%2Fcma-cgm-signs-350-million-indian-shipbuilding-order-for-six-box-ships-6097779&amp;data=05%7C02%7Ckevin.saville2%40spglobal.com%7Ce25119e77e48409f9fd008de1afbe98d%7C8f3e36ea80394b4081a77dc0599e8645%7C1%7C0%7C638977866451727877%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&amp;sdata=%2FDyTYJQw5D4RIVSbQMl9WMVuKyoBpeTzvxQI%2FT3TmeE%3D&amp;reserved=0">with Indian shipbuilding yards are gathering pace</a>, with the lead taken by Maersk and CMA CGM. MSC was reportedly weighing similar interest following Toft’s meeting with Indian government leaders earlier this year. MSC is the largest ocean carrier out of India, with growing landside investment interests that include container terminal partnerships with Adani at Mundra and Ennore (Chennai). The carrier handles large-scale regional transshipment volumes at Mundra as well as Vizhinjam Port, India’s newest container hub that is also managed by Adani. Contact Bency Mathew at <a href="mailto:bencyvmathew@gmail.com">bencyvmathew@gmail.com</a>.</div>

Mediterranean Shipping Co. has become the latest major ocean carrier to invest beyond port-to-port shipping and inland logistics operations in India. The world’s largest liner operator has confirmed a program to reflag 12 of its container ships to the Indian registry, adding to the wave of recent similar flag changes already carried out by CMA CGM and Maersk . In a LinkedIn post Monday, MSC CEO Soren Toft said the planned Indian-flagged fleet operation “strengthens the company’s long-term partnership and support for India’s maritime ambitions.” “India is a key country for MSC, with continued strong development across shipping, ports and logistics,” Toft noted. Details of the vessels to be registered in India were not immediately disclosed. Efforts to seek comment from officials at MSC (India) were unsuccessful. Boost for New Delhi MSC’s reflagging move was another key industry investment commitment unfolded at the recent maritime summit in Mumbai. The migration of European carriers away from their traditional cost-saving foreign “flags of convenience” to India’s emerging market is seen as a major maritime boost for New Delhi as it vigorously seeks private investment to drive economic growth through a buildup of manufacturing and export verticals. Additionally, carrier collaborations with Indian shipbuilding yards are gathering pace , with the lead taken by Maersk and CMA CGM. MSC was reportedly weighing similar interest following Toft’s meeting with Indian government leaders earlier this year. MSC is the largest ocean carrier out of India, with growing landside investment interests that include container terminal partnerships with Adani at Mundra and Ennore (Chennai). The carrier handles large-scale regional transshipment volumes at Mundra as well as Vizhinjam Port, India’s newest container hub that is also managed by Adani. Contact Bency Mathew at bencyvmathew@gmail.com .

Marine terminals

MSC agrees to reflag 12 container ships in India in diversification push

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">An $800 general rate increase implemented over the weekend for West Coast business was already starting to deteriorate by Tuesday after some early — and fleeting — staying power generated by the US-China trade deal.</div>

An $800 general rate increase implemented over the weekend for West Coast business was already starting to deteriorate by Tuesday after some early — and fleeting — staying power generated by the US-China trade deal.

<div class="phx-topic">A general rate increase (GRI) of approximately $800 per FEU implemented by ocean carriers this weekend on the Asia to US West Coast trade is already beginning to erode amid a fundamental lack of demand, forwarders and carriers say. “The load factor to the West Coast is really not that strong,” Chris Sur, executive director for global sales at logistics provider Glovis America, told the Journal of Commerce. The GRI, enacted on Saturday, showed some initial staying power, coming just days after the <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-china-suspend-reciprocal-port-fees-as-part-of-wider-trade-deal-6105849">US and China reached a broad trade deal</a> that partially rolled back some tariffs and set a one-year pause on reciprocal port fees. A carrier executive said that in the immediate aftermath of the agreement, some retailers wanted to begin pulling fresh cargo into the US quickly because of uncertainty over how long the truce would last. That strategy lent support to rates on the West Coast trade, and the new GRI. “There was a bit of pent-up demand, and the West Coast is the fastest route,” the carrier executive said. The GRI pushed the West Coast spot rate up to about $2,750 to $2,850 per FEU; the rate one week earlier was about $2,040 per FEU, according to Platts, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. But the bullishness was short-lived, with sources saying the market had already begun to give up the GRI gains by Tuesday. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="e8c13a3e-9f5a-412f-8741-adbf5e1a7779"></dynamic-object></div>The rate moves for Asia to East Coast business were even more dramatic. Trans-Pacific carriers over the weekend attempted to impose a $1,000 per FEU GRI on shipments from Asia to the East Coast, but that GRI “completely collapsed,” a forwarder said. By Monday, the East Coast spot rate had dropped to about $2,750 to $2,850 per FEU — about the same level as the West Coast rate, a mark of parity that is highly unusual. “I never remember that happening before,” the forwarder said. <h3>Holiday merchandise has already arrived </h3>Sur said the reality in the eastbound trans-Pacific is that retailers have already imported their holiday season merchandise for the Black Friday sales that begin on the day after Thanksgiving in the US. The remaining two months of the year will be a weak period for imports, as they usually are, he said. Meanwhile, bookings for shipments from China into the US fell about 16% in October compared with September, according to data from maritime visibility provider Vizion and data and analytics company Dun &amp; Bradstreet. Still, bookings for Chinese cargo during the second half of October rebounded somewhat, increasing by more than 15% compared with the first half of the month. The structural weakness in overall demand in the eastbound trans-Pacific will likely continue through the end of the year, but that does not preclude carriers from attempting to implement further GRIs, Sur said. “If carriers have the resolve to do it, they’ll do it,” he said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>.Contact Laura Robb at <a href="mailto:laura.robb@spglobal.com">laura.robb@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

A general rate increase (GRI) of approximately $800 per FEU implemented by ocean carriers this weekend on the Asia to US West Coast trade is already beginning to erode amid a fundamental lack of demand, forwarders and carriers say. “The load factor to the West Coast is really not that strong,” Chris Sur, executive director for global sales at logistics provider Glovis America, told the Journal of Commerce. The GRI, enacted on Saturday, showed some initial staying power, coming just days after the US and China reached a broad trade deal that partially rolled back some tariffs and set a one-year pause on reciprocal port fees. A carrier executive said that in the immediate aftermath of the agreement, some retailers wanted to begin pulling fresh cargo into the US quickly because of uncertainty over how long the truce would last. That strategy lent support to rates on the West Coast trade, and the new GRI. “There was a bit of pent-up demand, and the West Coast is the fastest route,” the carrier executive said. The GRI pushed the West Coast spot rate up to about $2,750 to $2,850 per FEU; the rate one week earlier was about $2,040 per FEU, according to Platts, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. But the bullishness was short-lived, with sources saying the market had already begun to give up the GRI gains by Tuesday. The rate moves for Asia to East Coast business were even more dramatic. Trans-Pacific carriers over the weekend attempted to impose a $1,000 per FEU GRI on shipments from Asia to the East Coast, but that GRI “completely collapsed,” a forwarder said. By Monday, the East Coast spot rate had dropped to about $2,750 to $2,850 per FEU — about the same level as the West Coast rate, a mark of parity that is highly unusual. “I never remember that happening before,” the forwarder said. Holiday merchandise has already arrived Sur said the reality in the eastbound trans-Pacific is that retailers have already imported their holiday season merchandise for the Black Friday sales that begin on the day after Thanksgiving in the US. The remaining two months of the year will be a weak period for imports, as they usually are, he said. Meanwhile, bookings for shipments from China into the US fell about 16% in October compared with September, according to data from maritime visibility provider Vizion and data and analytics company Dun & Bradstreet. Still, bookings for Chinese cargo during the second half of October rebounded somewhat, increasing by more than 15% compared with the first half of the month. The structural weakness in overall demand in the eastbound trans-Pacific will likely continue through the end of the year, but that does not preclude carriers from attempting to implement further GRIs, Sur said. “If carriers have the resolve to do it, they’ll do it,” he said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .Contact Laura Robb at laura.robb@spglobal.com .

Soft demand in eastbound trans-Pacific overwhelms carriers’ GRI attempt

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">But the revision comes as the carrier saw sharp declines in third-quarter revenues and profit amid the slump in freight rates.</div>

But the revision comes as the carrier saw sharp declines in third-quarter revenues and profit amid the slump in freight rates.

<div class="phx-topic">Maersk on Thursday raised the lower end of its full-year earnings guidance, citing resilient cargo demand despite a slump in container freight rates. But the revision came as the carrier saw sharp declines in third-quarter revenues and profit amid the softer freight rates. Maersk said global container volume growth is now forecast at 4% this year, up from a prior forecast of 2% and 4%. As a result, Maersk’s full-year earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) are now forecast at between $9 billion and $9.5 billion, up from $8 billion to $9.5 billion projected in August. And underlying earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) are projected at between $3 billion and $3.5 billion, up from $2 billion to $3.5 billion. But the revised guidance came as Maersk unveiled mixed third-quarter results, with net profit in its liner division crashing on the lower freight rates despite the increase in volumes, while its terminals and logistics divisions saw revenue gains. Maersk said loaded volumes, driven by Asian exports, climbed 7% in the third quarter to 3.4 million TEUs, up from 3.2 million TEUs in the year-earlier period. But the company was hit by a drop in average loaded freight rates, which were 31% lower across most trades as the high rates seen in July had declined by the end of the quarter. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="633d74d4-3e57-4d30-9b26-c9b52f6efb5c"></dynamic-object></div>According to the World Container Index (WCI) as assessed by Drewry, average global container spot rates had fallen from a July 1 peak of $5,806 per FEU to $1,822 as of Oct. 1. Volumes handled by APM Terminals rose 8.7% year over year to 3.7 million TEUs in the third quarter, fueled by strong growth across the Americas, Europe and Africa. The gain was driven by the bounce in cargo through its terminal network after Maersk Line launched the Gemini Cooperation alliance with Hapag-Lloyd in February. <h3>Slump in freight rates hits ocean division earnings </h3>Overall, A.P. Moller – Maersk saw net profit drop by 67% to $1 billion in the third quarter, while revenue fell 10% to $14.2 billion. The slump in freight rates led to an 18% fall in revenue at Maersk’s ocean division, to $9.2 billion, despite the higher loaded volumes. EBITDA more than halved to $1.8 billion from $4 billion. Revenue at Maersk’s terminals division surged 22% in the third quarter to $1.4 billion on the back of high volumes, while the logistics division posted a 2% increase in revenue to $4 billion. Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>.</div>

Maersk on Thursday raised the lower end of its full-year earnings guidance, citing resilient cargo demand despite a slump in container freight rates. But the revision came as the carrier saw sharp declines in third-quarter revenues and profit amid the softer freight rates. Maersk said global container volume growth is now forecast at 4% this year, up from a prior forecast of 2% and 4%. As a result, Maersk’s full-year earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) are now forecast at between $9 billion and $9.5 billion, up from $8 billion to $9.5 billion projected in August. And underlying earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) are projected at between $3 billion and $3.5 billion, up from $2 billion to $3.5 billion. But the revised guidance came as Maersk unveiled mixed third-quarter results, with net profit in its liner division crashing on the lower freight rates despite the increase in volumes, while its terminals and logistics divisions saw revenue gains. Maersk said loaded volumes, driven by Asian exports, climbed 7% in the third quarter to 3.4 million TEUs, up from 3.2 million TEUs in the year-earlier period. But the company was hit by a drop in average loaded freight rates, which were 31% lower across most trades as the high rates seen in July had declined by the end of the quarter. According to the World Container Index (WCI) as assessed by Drewry, average global container spot rates had fallen from a July 1 peak of $5,806 per FEU to $1,822 as of Oct. 1. Volumes handled by APM Terminals rose 8.7% year over year to 3.7 million TEUs in the third quarter, fueled by strong growth across the Americas, Europe and Africa. The gain was driven by the bounce in cargo through its terminal network after Maersk Line launched the Gemini Cooperation alliance with Hapag-Lloyd in February. Slump in freight rates hits ocean division earnings Overall, A.P. Moller – Maersk saw net profit drop by 67% to $1 billion in the third quarter, while revenue fell 10% to $14.2 billion. The slump in freight rates led to an 18% fall in revenue at Maersk’s ocean division, to $9.2 billion, despite the higher loaded volumes. EBITDA more than halved to $1.8 billion from $4 billion. Revenue at Maersk’s terminals division surged 22% in the third quarter to $1.4 billion on the back of high volumes, while the logistics division posted a 2% increase in revenue to $4 billion. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

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