<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">A request for industry comment on trucking regulations that could be modified or ended generated 896 responses in one month, with electronic logging devices and hours of service rules at the top of the list.</div>

A request for industry comment on trucking regulations that could be modified or ended generated 896 responses in one month, with electronic logging devices and hours of service rules at the top of the list.

Feature image

<div class="phx-topic">If the Trump administration wants to deregulate trucking, it will find no lack of suggestions where to start. Comments on a Department of Transportation (DOT) request for information on rules that could or should be modified or replaced drew 896 comments in one month from industry organizations, state transportation officials, businesses and individuals. The comment period closed this week, and the list of regulations the respondents want amended or eliminated is long. Many of those responding were independent truckers. In particular, they targeted proposed mandates that would require speed limiting devices on truck engines and automatic emergency brakes (AEB) in heavy trucks, truck driver hours of service (HOS) rules, the electronic logging device (ELD) mandate and more. Those proposals and rules have been controversial since their inception. The current HOS rules and the ELD mandate were issued during the first Trump administration. It may be easier for regulators to drop or postpone pending regulations, such as a proposed requirement that trucks be equipped with speed limiters, than to rewrite existing rules such as the ELD mandate and HOS regulations. Many of the requests regarding those rules echo debates with prior administrations. Proposals that would mandate speed limiters were issued in 2016 under the Obama administration and then under the Biden White House in 2022. That last proposal remains active but has not advanced to a final rulemaking. The ELD mandate, implemented in late 2017, reshaped trucking, making it much more difficult to evade HOS limits. Many comments from truck drivers simply suggested some variant of ending the use of electronic logs and going back to paper logs. The request for information and the flood of responses are part of the Trump administration’s effort to identify and cut rules it considers unconstitutional, unlawful, unauthorized and unnecessarily burdensome. But respondents also called for new regulation that would help deter cargo crime and fraud. The National Association of Small Trucking Companies (NASTC) called for a permanent freight fraud enforcement task force with the DOT Office of the Inspector General. “This task force should be solely tasked with enforcing laws against fraud in transportation by investigating incidents and developing cases to bring to the Department of Justice,” the NASTC said in its comments. The organization also wants the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration to “diligently maintain” its National Consumer Complaint Database to fight fraud cases. Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

If the Trump administration wants to deregulate trucking, it will find no lack of suggestions where to start. Comments on a Department of Transportation (DOT) request for information on rules that could or should be modified or replaced drew 896 comments in one month from industry organizations, state transportation officials, businesses and individuals. The comment period closed this week, and the list of regulations the respondents want amended or eliminated is long. Many of those responding were independent truckers. In particular, they targeted proposed mandates that would require speed limiting devices on truck engines and automatic emergency brakes (AEB) in heavy trucks, truck driver hours of service (HOS) rules, the electronic logging device (ELD) mandate and more. Those proposals and rules have been controversial since their inception. The current HOS rules and the ELD mandate were issued during the first Trump administration. It may be easier for regulators to drop or postpone pending regulations, such as a proposed requirement that trucks be equipped with speed limiters, than to rewrite existing rules such as the ELD mandate and HOS regulations. Many of the requests regarding those rules echo debates with prior administrations. Proposals that would mandate speed limiters were issued in 2016 under the Obama administration and then under the Biden White House in 2022. That last proposal remains active but has not advanced to a final rulemaking. The ELD mandate, implemented in late 2017, reshaped trucking, making it much more difficult to evade HOS limits. Many comments from truck drivers simply suggested some variant of ending the use of electronic logs and going back to paper logs. The request for information and the flood of responses are part of the Trump administration’s effort to identify and cut rules it considers unconstitutional, unlawful, unauthorized and unnecessarily burdensome. But respondents also called for new regulation that would help deter cargo crime and fraud. The National Association of Small Trucking Companies (NASTC) called for a permanent freight fraud enforcement task force with the DOT Office of the Inspector General. “This task force should be solely tasked with enforcing laws against fraud in transportation by investigating incidents and developing cases to bring to the Department of Justice,” the NASTC said in its comments. The organization also wants the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration to “diligently maintain” its National Consumer Complaint Database to fight fraud cases. Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .

Trucking News

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

Truckload

Surface

Truckers send Trump administration long list of rules to rewrite or kill

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The US’ second-largest intermodal carrier has not yet felt the effects of US tariffs on China but notes the delay in impact between the ports and the rails could take a few weeks.</div>

The US’ second-largest intermodal carrier has not yet felt the effects of US tariffs on China but notes the delay in impact between the ports and the rails could take a few weeks.

<div class="phx-topic">Hub Group, the US’ second-largest intermodal carrier, is warning that a drop in domestic intermodal volumes linked to US tariffs on China could emerge on the West Coast between mid-May and the end of June. Approximately a quarter of Hub Group’s West Coast business is tied to US imports, and about 30% of that originates in China, the company said during its first-quarter earnings call Thursday evening. The intermodal carrier laid out three potential outcomes based on how shippers respond to the evolving trade environment. “At the high end of the range is a short West Coast slowdown of China imports and strong bounce back of demand in the West Coast leading to a surge of volume in the back half of the year,” Hub Group CEO Phil Yeager said on the call. “The low end of the range would be an extended slowdown in China imports or the weakening of consumer spending.” Yeager said the more likely occurrence is a middle-ground scenario in which intermodal volumes decline modestly in the second half of the year without peak season surcharges. Last year, some shippers faced <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/up-joins-peers-in-assessing-peak-season-surcharges-for-southern-california-5709819">peak surcharges</a> when they exceeded their contractual allotments out of Southern California. A year of flat rates Hub Group’s intermodal volume rose 8% year over year in the first quarter, but revenue per load dropped 12%. One likely reason for the revenue decline is that Hub Group has taken a more aggressive pricing position than competitor Schneider National, according to several shippers the Journal of Commerce has spoken with. Another factor is the mix of freight. While Hub Group’s local East Coast volume rose 13% year over year, its transcontinental freight originating on the West Coast declined 1%. Shorter hauls on the East Coast naturally generate less revenue per load than longer intermodal routes from Southern California to inland markets such as Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, or Memphis. Hub Group said intermodal contract rates remained flat, echoing the data in the Journal of Commerce’s <a href="https://www.joc.com/resources/special-reports/intermodal-savings-index">Intermodal Savings Index</a>. Hub Group does not anticipate any changes through the end of the year. “In the initial onset of bid season, carriers were trying to push truckload rates up … what we’ve seen now in the second portion is more truckload competition [due to geopolitical trade tensions],” Yeager said. “In the second quarter, 38% of our business is getting bid out. I would say it’s been a little bit more aggressive, which is leading us to say we think flattish on pricing for the full year.” Yeager also said Hub Group does not plan to purchase additional containers in 2025; as much as 25% of the company’s containers are currently stacked and out of service. While the company does not disclose its total fleet size, independent estimates suggest Hub Group has idled about 10,000 containers nationwide. Those estimates come from Jason Hilsenbeck, the founder of drayage platform Loadmatch.com, which tracks domestic container fleet sizes across the US. Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Hub Group, the US’ second-largest intermodal carrier, is warning that a drop in domestic intermodal volumes linked to US tariffs on China could emerge on the West Coast between mid-May and the end of June. Approximately a quarter of Hub Group’s West Coast business is tied to US imports, and about 30% of that originates in China, the company said during its first-quarter earnings call Thursday evening. The intermodal carrier laid out three potential outcomes based on how shippers respond to the evolving trade environment. “At the high end of the range is a short West Coast slowdown of China imports and strong bounce back of demand in the West Coast leading to a surge of volume in the back half of the year,” Hub Group CEO Phil Yeager said on the call. “The low end of the range would be an extended slowdown in China imports or the weakening of consumer spending.” Yeager said the more likely occurrence is a middle-ground scenario in which intermodal volumes decline modestly in the second half of the year without peak season surcharges. Last year, some shippers faced peak surcharges when they exceeded their contractual allotments out of Southern California. A year of flat rates Hub Group’s intermodal volume rose 8% year over year in the first quarter, but revenue per load dropped 12%. One likely reason for the revenue decline is that Hub Group has taken a more aggressive pricing position than competitor Schneider National, according to several shippers the Journal of Commerce has spoken with. Another factor is the mix of freight. While Hub Group’s local East Coast volume rose 13% year over year, its transcontinental freight originating on the West Coast declined 1%. Shorter hauls on the East Coast naturally generate less revenue per load than longer intermodal routes from Southern California to inland markets such as Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, or Memphis. Hub Group said intermodal contract rates remained flat, echoing the data in the Journal of Commerce’s Intermodal Savings Index . Hub Group does not anticipate any changes through the end of the year. “In the initial onset of bid season, carriers were trying to push truckload rates up … what we’ve seen now in the second portion is more truckload competition [due to geopolitical trade tensions],” Yeager said. “In the second quarter, 38% of our business is getting bid out. I would say it’s been a little bit more aggressive, which is leading us to say we think flattish on pricing for the full year.” Yeager also said Hub Group does not plan to purchase additional containers in 2025; as much as 25% of the company’s containers are currently stacked and out of service. While the company does not disclose its total fleet size, independent estimates suggest Hub Group has idled about 10,000 containers nationwide. Those estimates come from Jason Hilsenbeck, the founder of drayage platform Loadmatch.com, which tracks domestic container fleet sizes across the US. Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

North-American rail

Intermodal providers

Drop in USWC domestic intermodal volumes could come soon: Hub Group

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The National Retail Federation also warned the negative growth will accelerate, with imports through the summer expected to be at least 20% lower than the corresponding month last year. </div>

The National Retail Federation also warned the negative growth will accelerate, with imports through the summer expected to be at least 20% lower than the corresponding month last year. 

<div class="phx-topic">US imports this month will see their first year-over-year decline in more than a year and a half as the “true impact” of the Trump administration’s tariffs come to fruition, a major retail group said Friday. The National Retail Federation (NRF) also warned the negative growth will accelerate, with imports from June through September expected to be at least 20% lower than the corresponding month last year.  “We are starting to see the true impact of President Trump’s tariffs on the supply chain,” Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, said in the group’s newly released Global Port Tracker (GPT) published with Hackett Associates. Gold said the US tariffs will result in “higher costs for businesses as well as reduced cargo volumes.”  “In the end, these tariffs will affect consumers in the form of higher prices and less availability on store shelves,” he said.  That less availability will begin in May, with projected imports of 1.81 million TEUs down almost 13% from May 2024 and the first year-over-year drop in imports in 19 months, according to the GPT. Imports for June through September are projected to see year-over-year declines of 20.2%, 23.4%, 21.5% and 21.2%, respectively. Expected June imports of 1.71 million TEUs would be the lowest for any month since March 2023, the GPT said. Tariff impacts Tariffs implemented by President Donald Trump in April “come at the most important time in the buying process” for retailers, said Gold, adding that many retailers are being forced to delay or cancel orders — with small retailers being especially impacted. With a pre-tariff rush of imports that appears to have largely ended in January, the ratio of US retail inventories to sales, a barometer of inventory balance, was unchanged in February, at 1.31, according to US Census Bureau data. Amid US importers increasingly canceling or suspending orders, ocean carriers are making capacity adjustments in the form of <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/msc-suspends-two-us-services-rejigs-others-as-tariffs-hit-chinese-imports-6000649">suspended services</a> and blanked sailings. “Container carriers are indeed dropping voyages and consolidating cargo and service to ensure that their vessels are as full as possible and to maintain economies of scale as demand declines,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates.  While carriers have begun to suspend services on the trans-Pacific, Hackett added that reports of a “broken” supply chain and ships “making U-turns in mid-voyage” because of the tariffs are “very far from the truth and the reality on the ground.” The GPT expects 12.13 million TEUs in US imports for the first half of 2025, up just 0.3% on the year and a significant downgrade from the 5.7% growth that was forecast before tariffs were implemented. The GPT is published monthly using import data collected from 13 ports on the US East, West and Gulf coasts. Contact Laura Robb at <a href="">Laura.Robb@spglobal.com</a>.  </div>

US imports this month will see their first year-over-year decline in more than a year and a half as the “true impact” of the Trump administration’s tariffs come to fruition, a major retail group said Friday. The National Retail Federation (NRF) also warned the negative growth will accelerate, with imports from June through September expected to be at least 20% lower than the corresponding month last year.  “We are starting to see the true impact of President Trump’s tariffs on the supply chain,” Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, said in the group’s newly released Global Port Tracker (GPT) published with Hackett Associates. Gold said the US tariffs will result in “higher costs for businesses as well as reduced cargo volumes.”  “In the end, these tariffs will affect consumers in the form of higher prices and less availability on store shelves,” he said.  That less availability will begin in May, with projected imports of 1.81 million TEUs down almost 13% from May 2024 and the first year-over-year drop in imports in 19 months, according to the GPT. Imports for June through September are projected to see year-over-year declines of 20.2%, 23.4%, 21.5% and 21.2%, respectively. Expected June imports of 1.71 million TEUs would be the lowest for any month since March 2023, the GPT said. Tariff impacts Tariffs implemented by President Donald Trump in April “come at the most important time in the buying process” for retailers, said Gold, adding that many retailers are being forced to delay or cancel orders — with small retailers being especially impacted. With a pre-tariff rush of imports that appears to have largely ended in January, the ratio of US retail inventories to sales, a barometer of inventory balance, was unchanged in February, at 1.31, according to US Census Bureau data. Amid US importers increasingly canceling or suspending orders, ocean carriers are making capacity adjustments in the form of suspended services and blanked sailings. “Container carriers are indeed dropping voyages and consolidating cargo and service to ensure that their vessels are as full as possible and to maintain economies of scale as demand declines,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates.  While carriers have begun to suspend services on the trans-Pacific, Hackett added that reports of a “broken” supply chain and ships “making U-turns in mid-voyage” because of the tariffs are “very far from the truth and the reality on the ground.” The GPT expects 12.13 million TEUs in US imports for the first half of 2025, up just 0.3% on the year and a significant downgrade from the 5.7% growth that was forecast before tariffs were implemented. The GPT is published monthly using import data collected from 13 ports on the US East, West and Gulf coasts. Contact Laura Robb at Laura.Robb@spglobal.com . 

Maritime

Container lines

Trans-Atlantic

Forwarding

Trans-Pacific

Container Shipping News

US retailers project first year-over-year import cut in 19 months as tariffs bite

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Trade disputes cast a pall over US manufacturing and trucking as exports and imports drop, PMI surveys show. </div>

Trade disputes cast a pall over US manufacturing and trucking as exports and imports drop, PMI surveys show.

<div class="phx-topic">A weakening outlook for US manufacturing combined with slowing imports is raising prospects of a further drop in already-soft truck freight demand. Two US manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) indicated either mild contraction or incremental expansion in April. The weakening in US manufacturing comes as imports and exports drop amid uncertainty over US trade policy. That has immediate implications for truck tonnage, as both truckload and less-than-truckload (LTL) are highly dependent on industrial freight. In total, 59% of for-hire truck tonnage in the US is sourced from domestic manufacturing plants, according to the US Census Bureau Commodity Flow Survey. Truck volumes have dropped year over year on a monthly basis since March 2023, according to the Cass Freight Shipments Index. In March, the shipments index — which also includes some rail and parcel data — was down 5.3% from a year earlier. The US manufacturing PMI from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) dropped 0.3 percentage points in April to 48.7, the second month of contraction for the PMI. “Demand and output weakened while input strengthened further, conditions that are not considered positive for economic growth,” Timothy R. Fiore, chair of the ISM business survey committee, said when releasing the ISM PMI report early this month. In contrast, the S&amp;P Global US manufacturing PMI was flat at 50.2, just above the breaking point between contraction and expansion. It has been above 50 for four months. “Manufacturing continued to flat-line in April amid worrying downside risks to the outlook and sharply rising costs,” Chris Williamson, chief business economist for S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement at the start of the month. S&amp;P Global is the parent company of the Journal of Commerce. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="56be088e-5b54-4d09-add3-f841e65711ec"></dynamic-object></div>A PMI reading below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing. Both the ISM and S&amp;P Global PMIs rose above 50 in the first two months of the year after a long period of contraction. The ISM PMI had been below 50 for 24 of the previous 25 months. S&amp;P Global’s read on manufacturing was slightly more positive, but volatile, over the long term. Its PMI had been above 50 during the first half of 2024 and in contraction during the second half of the year. <h3>Declining metrics </h3>As the US economy slows, with early estimates of gross domestic product growth turning negative in the first quarter, signs of the supply chain impact are becoming clearer. Despite lower demand, average lead times for manufacturing orders lengthened for a seventh consecutive month, according to S&amp;P Global. The ISM Supplier Deliveries Index showed a continued slowing of deliveries to manufacturers in April. S&amp;P Global noted a reduction in purchases by manufacturers adding to their stocks. That may reflect lower orders and additions of inputs manufactured overseas as high tariffs on China took effect in April. “Supply disruptions and cost concerns, again linked to tariffs, were widely noted,” S&amp;P Global said in its April PMI report. One of the few bright spots for US manufacturers was a gain in new sales from customers switching from imports to goods produced in US-based factories, Williamson said. However, “any such sales increase was countered by worries over tariff-related disruptions to supply chains and lost export sales,” he said. The US Federal Reserve System also found the US economy struggling to gain traction in April. “Uncertainty around international trade policy was pervasive,” the Fed said in its Beige Book economic report for the month, released in early May. Just five of the 12 Federal Reserve districts covered by the report saw slight growth in economic activity, while three districts saw little change and four reported slight to modest declines. “Manufacturing was mixed, but two-thirds of districts said activity was little changed or had declined” from the previous month, the Fed said. Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

A weakening outlook for US manufacturing combined with slowing imports is raising prospects of a further drop in already-soft truck freight demand. Two US manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) indicated either mild contraction or incremental expansion in April. The weakening in US manufacturing comes as imports and exports drop amid uncertainty over US trade policy. That has immediate implications for truck tonnage, as both truckload and less-than-truckload (LTL) are highly dependent on industrial freight. In total, 59% of for-hire truck tonnage in the US is sourced from domestic manufacturing plants, according to the US Census Bureau Commodity Flow Survey. Truck volumes have dropped year over year on a monthly basis since March 2023, according to the Cass Freight Shipments Index. In March, the shipments index — which also includes some rail and parcel data — was down 5.3% from a year earlier. The US manufacturing PMI from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) dropped 0.3 percentage points in April to 48.7, the second month of contraction for the PMI. “Demand and output weakened while input strengthened further, conditions that are not considered positive for economic growth,” Timothy R. Fiore, chair of the ISM business survey committee, said when releasing the ISM PMI report early this month. In contrast, the S&P Global US manufacturing PMI was flat at 50.2, just above the breaking point between contraction and expansion. It has been above 50 for four months. “Manufacturing continued to flat-line in April amid worrying downside risks to the outlook and sharply rising costs,” Chris Williamson, chief business economist for S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement at the start of the month. S&P Global is the parent company of the Journal of Commerce. A PMI reading below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing. Both the ISM and S&P Global PMIs rose above 50 in the first two months of the year after a long period of contraction. The ISM PMI had been below 50 for 24 of the previous 25 months. S&P Global’s read on manufacturing was slightly more positive, but volatile, over the long term. Its PMI had been above 50 during the first half of 2024 and in contraction during the second half of the year. Declining metrics As the US economy slows, with early estimates of gross domestic product growth turning negative in the first quarter, signs of the supply chain impact are becoming clearer. Despite lower demand, average lead times for manufacturing orders lengthened for a seventh consecutive month, according to S&P Global. The ISM Supplier Deliveries Index showed a continued slowing of deliveries to manufacturers in April. S&P Global noted a reduction in purchases by manufacturers adding to their stocks. That may reflect lower orders and additions of inputs manufactured overseas as high tariffs on China took effect in April. “Supply disruptions and cost concerns, again linked to tariffs, were widely noted,” S&P Global said in its April PMI report. One of the few bright spots for US manufacturers was a gain in new sales from customers switching from imports to goods produced in US-based factories, Williamson said. However, “any such sales increase was countered by worries over tariff-related disruptions to supply chains and lost export sales,” he said. The US Federal Reserve System also found the US economy struggling to gain traction in April. “Uncertainty around international trade policy was pervasive,” the Fed said in its Beige Book economic report for the month, released in early May. Just five of the 12 Federal Reserve districts covered by the report saw slight growth in economic activity, while three districts saw little change and four reported slight to modest declines. “Manufacturing was mixed, but two-thirds of districts said activity was little changed or had declined” from the previous month, the Fed said. Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .

Supply chain

Manufacturing malaise clouds outlook for US industrial freight

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">There remains no guarantee of safety for ships, crew and cargo passing through the waterway, which means it would likely be out of bounds for the rest of the year, says CEO Vincent Clerc.</div>

There remains no guarantee of safety for ships, crew and cargo passing through the waterway, which means it would likely be out of bounds for the rest of the year, says CEO Vincent Clerc.

<div class="phx-topic">Maersk has ruled out a return to Red Sea transits this year despite an assertion from US President Donald Trump this week that Houthi militants in Yemen “have capitulated” and agreed to stop attacks on commercial shipping in the region. CEO Vincent Clerc told analysts on a first-quarter earnings call Thursday that it would not be responsible to return to the Red Sea and Suez Canal when there were no guarantees over the safety of crew, ships and cargo. That means Maersk vessels will continue to divert around southern Africa. “If the US will stop bombing (the Houthi), that's good,” Clerc said. “Whether this means there is not only safety today, but safety for the foreseeable future for us sending our colleagues, our assets and our customers’ cargo through the Red Sea again, we're pretty far from that threshold.” Trump on Tuesday said <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/apparent-houthi-ceasefire-raises-container-shipping-overcapacity-risk-5999930">the Houthi had “capitulated”</a> and that the US would suspend its aerial strikes on militant positions in Yemen. “They just don't want to fight,” Trump told reporters. “We will honor that, and we will stop the bombings. But, more importantly, we will take their word. They say they will not be blowing up ships anymore and that's what the purpose of what we were doing." Ocean carriers have been forced to divert around the Cape of Good Hope for the past 18 months to avoid missile and drone attacks launched by the Houthi from southern Yemen. The militants have said the attacks were a show of solidarity for Gaza amid the Israel-Hamas war. A Houthi official told Reuters the US and Houthis had agreed to "no longer target each other," but that attacks on Israel would continue. However, a Houthi media statement issued late Wednesday, just a day after the Trump ceasefire announcement, claimed the militants had conducted an attack against the US aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman and its support vessels. <h3>Red Sea return ‘not responsible’ </h3>Jack Kennedy, head of Middle East and North Africa country risk at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, said the US-Houthi ceasefire announcement represented “a pragmatic, limited de-escalation rather than a pathway toward comprehensive peace.” “The Houthis are likely to use any relative pause in US bombing to rearm and rebuild infrastructure that has been targeted over the course of the existing campaign that began on March 15,” Kennedy said in a customer brief this week. “Houthi targeting and identification of vessels it accuses of supporting Israel has previously, in our view, been inconsistent and based on incomplete information, maintaining severe risks for shipping in transit due to misidentification,” he added. An Israel-Hamas ceasefire and the Houthis’ pledge to not attack commercial vessels was announced in January, but did not provide enough certainty to most container lines to restart their Suez Canal sailings. Clerc said the strong link between Houthi attacks and the Gaza war, which he said was worsening, and the lack of any formal structure to this week’s US-Houthi ceasefire claim by the White House, rendered the chances of a return of shipping to the Red Sea this year "very, very low.” “Going through something as complex, costly and hard to reverse as a complete redeployment of our shipping networks back through the Red Sea based on news of a deal whose contour we don't understand, whose terms we don't understand, and which has been breached already, I think is really not responsible,” he said. The carrier’s Gemini Cooperation partner Hapag-Lloyd said its position on sailing through the Red Sea also remained unchanged following the comments by Trump. “There is not much we can say at this point other than that we will continue to closely monitor and analyze the latest developments and their impact on the security situation in the Red Sea,” Hapag-Lloyd spokesperson Tim Seifert told the Journal of Commerce. “Otherwise, the following applies unchanged: We will return to the Red Sea when it is safe to do so.” Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Maersk has ruled out a return to Red Sea transits this year despite an assertion from US President Donald Trump this week that Houthi militants in Yemen “have capitulated” and agreed to stop attacks on commercial shipping in the region. CEO Vincent Clerc told analysts on a first-quarter earnings call Thursday that it would not be responsible to return to the Red Sea and Suez Canal when there were no guarantees over the safety of crew, ships and cargo. That means Maersk vessels will continue to divert around southern Africa. “If the US will stop bombing (the Houthi), that's good,” Clerc said. “Whether this means there is not only safety today, but safety for the foreseeable future for us sending our colleagues, our assets and our customers’ cargo through the Red Sea again, we're pretty far from that threshold.” Trump on Tuesday said the Houthi had “capitulated” and that the US would suspend its aerial strikes on militant positions in Yemen. “They just don't want to fight,” Trump told reporters. “We will honor that, and we will stop the bombings. But, more importantly, we will take their word. They say they will not be blowing up ships anymore and that's what the purpose of what we were doing." Ocean carriers have been forced to divert around the Cape of Good Hope for the past 18 months to avoid missile and drone attacks launched by the Houthi from southern Yemen. The militants have said the attacks were a show of solidarity for Gaza amid the Israel-Hamas war. A Houthi official told Reuters the US and Houthis had agreed to "no longer target each other," but that attacks on Israel would continue. However, a Houthi media statement issued late Wednesday, just a day after the Trump ceasefire announcement, claimed the militants had conducted an attack against the US aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman and its support vessels. Red Sea return ‘not responsible’ Jack Kennedy, head of Middle East and North Africa country risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the US-Houthi ceasefire announcement represented “a pragmatic, limited de-escalation rather than a pathway toward comprehensive peace.” “The Houthis are likely to use any relative pause in US bombing to rearm and rebuild infrastructure that has been targeted over the course of the existing campaign that began on March 15,” Kennedy said in a customer brief this week. “Houthi targeting and identification of vessels it accuses of supporting Israel has previously, in our view, been inconsistent and based on incomplete information, maintaining severe risks for shipping in transit due to misidentification,” he added. An Israel-Hamas ceasefire and the Houthis’ pledge to not attack commercial vessels was announced in January, but did not provide enough certainty to most container lines to restart their Suez Canal sailings. Clerc said the strong link between Houthi attacks and the Gaza war, which he said was worsening, and the lack of any formal structure to this week’s US-Houthi ceasefire claim by the White House, rendered the chances of a return of shipping to the Red Sea this year "very, very low.” “Going through something as complex, costly and hard to reverse as a complete redeployment of our shipping networks back through the Red Sea based on news of a deal whose contour we don't understand, whose terms we don't understand, and which has been breached already, I think is really not responsible,” he said. The carrier’s Gemini Cooperation partner Hapag-Lloyd said its position on sailing through the Red Sea also remained unchanged following the comments by Trump. “There is not much we can say at this point other than that we will continue to closely monitor and analyze the latest developments and their impact on the security situation in the Red Sea,” Hapag-Lloyd spokesperson Tim Seifert told the Journal of Commerce. “Otherwise, the following applies unchanged: We will return to the Red Sea when it is safe to do so.” Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Asia-Europe

US-Houthi ceasefire claim not sufficient for carrier return to Red Sea: Maersk

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The tight supply of warehousing for frontloaded freight is diverting truck shipments as shippers reposition inventory.</div>

The tight supply of warehousing for frontloaded freight is diverting truck shipments as shippers reposition inventory.

<div class="phx-topic">Rising demand for bonded warehousing amid <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/tariff-related-disruption-spreading-as-us-shippers-pause-plans-5989017">high US tariffs</a> is disrupting the flow of freight by truck to inland US markets, drayage providers say. That and high volumes of freight frontloaded to avoid paying those tariffs are throwing some supply chains and inland distribution networks off-kilter as uncertainty deepens around US trade disputes and the potential for trade deals to lower tariffs. Frontloaded freight, first <a href="http://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/p/?LinkId=255141">from China</a> and now from other US trading partners facing reciprocal tariffs by July, is forcing US shippers to find new storage space for goods, whether bonded facilities, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-importers-turning-to-foreign-trade-zones-amid-tariff-hikes-5999587">free trade zones</a> (FTZs) or any available warehouse. They’re looking for overflow space and a tariff-safe haven for their goods, and that is shifting shipments and inventory across the country, said Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain for ITS Logistics, a Reno, Nevada-based drayage and logistics provider. “Bonded storage, especially for Chinese goods, is something we’re seeing tons of demand for right now,” Brashier told the Journal of Commerce Wednesday. Demand is high for bonded trucking as well, in which a carrier moves goods in bond from a port. But bonded warehouses <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-importers-turn-to-canadian-bonded-storage-to-delay-payment-of-tariffs-5990113">are hard to find</a>. Shippers that can’t find bonded storage in the US are looking as far away as Canada. That means freight is shifting to new lanes and perhaps new trucking companies. “Let’s say you frontloaded a ton of goods and you get them into the best port you can as quickly as possible,” he said. “They’re not destined for their normal supply chain.” The situation underscores the need for what industrial real-estate developer Prologis calls “flexible inventory positioning in the evolving landscape.” “A disconnected world will require more warehouse space, not less,” Prologis CFO Timothy D. Arndt said during a first-quarter earnings call last month. Discussions between Prologis and more than 300 customers in April found many companies accelerating shipments, Arndt said, adding: “They’re also rerouting volumes and have urgent demand for overflow space.” What those shippers need is short-term flexibility, and they’re turning to third-party logistics providers (3PLs) to find it, he said. “3PLs’ space is getting more utilized, with one prominent name describing that they’ve increased their utilization from 83% to over 90%,” Arndt said. 3PLs are looking for more space for importers, including space at ITS Logistics, which has about 5 million square feet of warehousing at three campuses, Brashier said. “I was approached recently by a 3PL looking to onboard us for additional space,” he said. “Those conversations weren’t happening six months ago, and they are now.” ITS Logistics is also seeing more demand for cross-dock services and direct long-distance trucking or drayage to customers further in the US, skipping intermediate distribution centers. “There’s a lot of stuff moving between distribution centers,” Brashier said, a sign that inventory is being repositioned. Such deviation from “normal” supply chains — especially if it proves long lasting — leads to higher costs for shippers as goods they import move to markets farther from ports. Disruption likely will decline as tariffs take effect and shipments drop. “We’ve got to let everything from the China cut-off process through the system,” Brashier said. <h3>Going with the ‘overflow’ </h3>A Prologis study released this month found that 75% of US real estate demand is tied to regional distribution and local consumer consumption, not global trade. That, in turn, could mean less space available for the overflow of international goods. “Many of our customers source domestically and are relatively unaffected, while others have the capability to adapt or even stand to benefit,” Arndt said. Some Prologis customers are already making decisions, despite uncertainty over US trade policy. “Even in the last two weeks, we signed a lot of leases, and we’ve signed build-to-suits,” Hamid R. Moghadam, Prologis’ chairman and CEO, said during the company’s call. “These customers could have just said, ‘okay, let’s punt on those until we have clarity,’” he said. <h3>Spot market volumes soar </h3>The disruption caused by the diversion of freight is igniting the truckload spot market in terms of volumes. “We’re seeing record numbers of loads moved nationally, surpassing the highest numbers we saw during the pandemic,” Dean Croke, principal analyst at DAT Freight &amp; Analytics, told the Journal of Commerce Thursday. Spot loads moved out of Los Angeles are up 17% from February through May; in the previous two years, the number of loads went down in the same period. Spot loads moved from Los Angeles to Phoenix are up 52% in the February–May period, Croke said. Last week was the busiest week ever for DAT’s spot market load boards, with volumes 6% higher than the week ending Nov. 12, 2021 — the height of the COVID-19 pandemic retail freight surge, he said. In addition, “we’re seeing new lanes pop up because shippers are finding new suppliers,” Croke said. However, even with freight diversions and inventory repositioning, there’s little sign that excess truck capacity is being absorbed by the disruption. “This hasn’t affected spot market rates, which shows there’s enough capacity in the contract and spot markets,” Croke said. Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Rising demand for bonded warehousing amid high US tariffs is disrupting the flow of freight by truck to inland US markets, drayage providers say. That and high volumes of freight frontloaded to avoid paying those tariffs are throwing some supply chains and inland distribution networks off-kilter as uncertainty deepens around US trade disputes and the potential for trade deals to lower tariffs. Frontloaded freight, first from China and now from other US trading partners facing reciprocal tariffs by July, is forcing US shippers to find new storage space for goods, whether bonded facilities, free trade zones (FTZs) or any available warehouse. They’re looking for overflow space and a tariff-safe haven for their goods, and that is shifting shipments and inventory across the country, said Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain for ITS Logistics, a Reno, Nevada-based drayage and logistics provider. “Bonded storage, especially for Chinese goods, is something we’re seeing tons of demand for right now,” Brashier told the Journal of Commerce Wednesday. Demand is high for bonded trucking as well, in which a carrier moves goods in bond from a port. But bonded warehouses are hard to find . Shippers that can’t find bonded storage in the US are looking as far away as Canada. That means freight is shifting to new lanes and perhaps new trucking companies. “Let’s say you frontloaded a ton of goods and you get them into the best port you can as quickly as possible,” he said. “They’re not destined for their normal supply chain.” The situation underscores the need for what industrial real-estate developer Prologis calls “flexible inventory positioning in the evolving landscape.” “A disconnected world will require more warehouse space, not less,” Prologis CFO Timothy D. Arndt said during a first-quarter earnings call last month. Discussions between Prologis and more than 300 customers in April found many companies accelerating shipments, Arndt said, adding: “They’re also rerouting volumes and have urgent demand for overflow space.” What those shippers need is short-term flexibility, and they’re turning to third-party logistics providers (3PLs) to find it, he said. “3PLs’ space is getting more utilized, with one prominent name describing that they’ve increased their utilization from 83% to over 90%,” Arndt said. 3PLs are looking for more space for importers, including space at ITS Logistics, which has about 5 million square feet of warehousing at three campuses, Brashier said. “I was approached recently by a 3PL looking to onboard us for additional space,” he said. “Those conversations weren’t happening six months ago, and they are now.” ITS Logistics is also seeing more demand for cross-dock services and direct long-distance trucking or drayage to customers further in the US, skipping intermediate distribution centers. “There’s a lot of stuff moving between distribution centers,” Brashier said, a sign that inventory is being repositioned. Such deviation from “normal” supply chains — especially if it proves long lasting — leads to higher costs for shippers as goods they import move to markets farther from ports. Disruption likely will decline as tariffs take effect and shipments drop. “We’ve got to let everything from the China cut-off process through the system,” Brashier said. Going with the ‘overflow’ A Prologis study released this month found that 75% of US real estate demand is tied to regional distribution and local consumer consumption, not global trade. That, in turn, could mean less space available for the overflow of international goods. “Many of our customers source domestically and are relatively unaffected, while others have the capability to adapt or even stand to benefit,” Arndt said. Some Prologis customers are already making decisions, despite uncertainty over US trade policy. “Even in the last two weeks, we signed a lot of leases, and we’ve signed build-to-suits,” Hamid R. Moghadam, Prologis’ chairman and CEO, said during the company’s call. “These customers could have just said, ‘okay, let’s punt on those until we have clarity,’” he said. Spot market volumes soar The disruption caused by the diversion of freight is igniting the truckload spot market in terms of volumes. “We’re seeing record numbers of loads moved nationally, surpassing the highest numbers we saw during the pandemic,” Dean Croke, principal analyst at DAT Freight & Analytics, told the Journal of Commerce Thursday. Spot loads moved out of Los Angeles are up 17% from February through May; in the previous two years, the number of loads went down in the same period. Spot loads moved from Los Angeles to Phoenix are up 52% in the February–May period, Croke said. Last week was the busiest week ever for DAT’s spot market load boards, with volumes 6% higher than the week ending Nov. 12, 2021 — the height of the COVID-19 pandemic retail freight surge, he said. In addition, “we’re seeing new lanes pop up because shippers are finding new suppliers,” Croke said. However, even with freight diversions and inventory repositioning, there’s little sign that excess truck capacity is being absorbed by the disruption. “This hasn’t affected spot market rates, which shows there’s enough capacity in the contract and spot markets,” Croke said. Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .

Drayage

Tariffs amplify US warehousing demand, disrupt inland truck routes

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Trump administration’s tariff policy is yet another milestone that has shaken the US economy over the past 60 years, writes Ted Prince. </div>

The Trump administration’s tariff policy is yet another milestone that has shaken the US economy over the past 60 years, writes Ted Prince.

<div class="phx-topic">Since the announcement of reciprocal tariffs on so-called “Liberation Day” last month, we have been bombarded by conflicting predictions of the possible benefits and disasters that may befall our country, our economy and our industry. What I find interesting is that the history of the past 60 years seems to have been forgotten. While there are many important dates, I will focus on four. <h3>Yanqui go home! </h3>I would start in April 1965, when President Lyndon Johnson deployed the Marines and 82nd Airborne to the Dominican Republic to quell a civil war that broke out after a military junta. While the intervention was intended to protect US nationals, mission creep led to the deployment of over 22,000 American troops. While the invasion successfully reinstalled a conservative government, it increased distrust of the US. At the same time, companies such as Hewlett Packard were rolling out a continuous pipeline of electronic innovations. Their intention was to near-shore manufacturing in Latin America; however, the prevalence of “Yanqui Go Home!” made them look elsewhere. Japan and then the “Four Tigers” (Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea) became the factory sites instead. The Vietnam War had become the first containerized war, and plentiful equipment was available to load back to the US. While electronics required factories, much of the manufacturing was cottage industries. For example, importers of blue jeans were buying from hundreds of small vendors. Ocean carrier consolidators would send pickup trucks into the New Territories to pick up loose articles of clothing (some which no doubt had been made in China) for consolidation at their facilities adjacent to the Kwai Tsing container terminals. <h3>Voluntary restraint </h3>In May 1981, with the American auto industry mired in recession, Japanese car makers agreed to “voluntary export restraint,” which limited exports of passenger cars to the US. However, at the same time, they implemented a strategy of “transplants,” whereby cars were assembled in the US. Some might consider this an example of “reshoring;” however, it is not that simple. Initially, the plants were built in Japan, then disassembled, shipped to the US, and reassembled. Most of the parts (CKD: cars knocked down) came from Japan, so actual US content — other than labor — was minimal. Over time, suppliers proliferated along Interstates 65 and 75 to support these plants. However, many of these were also Japanese transplants. Some were joint ventures with US partners, but many were just US subsidiaries of Japanese manufacturers. Barry Bluestone and Bennett Harrison described this phenomenon in their 1982 work, “The Deindustrialization of America: Plant Closings, Community Abandonment, and the Dismantling of Basic Industry.” They pointed out the irony that the Japanese were successfully investing in US industrial sectors that scarcely a decade ago were said to be declining, uncompetitive, and suffering from deindustrialization. <h3>The Plaza Accord </h3>The Plaza Accord in September 1985 effectively devalued the dollar against other major currencies. Initially, the US trade deficit worsened, as imports rose in price with a devalued dollar. However, the devaluation made US exports cheaper for its trading partners to purchase, which grew the market in goods and services — which are unaccounted for in the current administration’s calculation. <h3>China and the WTO </h3>Finally, in 2001, China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO). What followed was a massive dislocation in trade as China built world-class factories and world-class ports to ship goods throughout the world. Some of those factories have since relocated to nations with cheaper labor. However, a whole ecosystem of suppliers has grown up that supports the manufacturing and assembly of sophisticated products. China’s development took over 30 years. It was no shortcut. It was also the result of extensive industrial policy similar to what Japan and the Four Tigers had done previously. Most importantly, these policies did not deviate for decades and supported a long-term strategy whereby investment could be made with confidence. Our current politics are such that it is impossible to invest in today’s doctrine because it may no longer be applicable by the time the factory opens in three to eight years. In the past 30 years, trade has increased dramatically as a share of gross domestic product (GDP). However, while most economists believe that this has been good for the economy, the general public’s outlook is less sanguine. In large part, this is because trade’s impacts can vary widely: localized changes in jobs (both gains and losses) and reduced prices of goods and services. Freight is inextricably linked to trade. It has transformed our industry. We will no doubt have a ringside seat to the policy that is evolving. Contact Ted Prince at <a href="mailto:ted@tricitiesintermodal.com">ted@tricitiesintermodal.com</a>. </div>

Since the announcement of reciprocal tariffs on so-called “Liberation Day” last month, we have been bombarded by conflicting predictions of the possible benefits and disasters that may befall our country, our economy and our industry. What I find interesting is that the history of the past 60 years seems to have been forgotten. While there are many important dates, I will focus on four. Yanqui go home! I would start in April 1965, when President Lyndon Johnson deployed the Marines and 82nd Airborne to the Dominican Republic to quell a civil war that broke out after a military junta. While the intervention was intended to protect US nationals, mission creep led to the deployment of over 22,000 American troops. While the invasion successfully reinstalled a conservative government, it increased distrust of the US. At the same time, companies such as Hewlett Packard were rolling out a continuous pipeline of electronic innovations. Their intention was to near-shore manufacturing in Latin America; however, the prevalence of “Yanqui Go Home!” made them look elsewhere. Japan and then the “Four Tigers” (Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea) became the factory sites instead. The Vietnam War had become the first containerized war, and plentiful equipment was available to load back to the US. While electronics required factories, much of the manufacturing was cottage industries. For example, importers of blue jeans were buying from hundreds of small vendors. Ocean carrier consolidators would send pickup trucks into the New Territories to pick up loose articles of clothing (some which no doubt had been made in China) for consolidation at their facilities adjacent to the Kwai Tsing container terminals. Voluntary restraint In May 1981, with the American auto industry mired in recession, Japanese car makers agreed to “voluntary export restraint,” which limited exports of passenger cars to the US. However, at the same time, they implemented a strategy of “transplants,” whereby cars were assembled in the US. Some might consider this an example of “reshoring;” however, it is not that simple. Initially, the plants were built in Japan, then disassembled, shipped to the US, and reassembled. Most of the parts (CKD: cars knocked down) came from Japan, so actual US content — other than labor — was minimal. Over time, suppliers proliferated along Interstates 65 and 75 to support these plants. However, many of these were also Japanese transplants. Some were joint ventures with US partners, but many were just US subsidiaries of Japanese manufacturers. Barry Bluestone and Bennett Harrison described this phenomenon in their 1982 work, “The Deindustrialization of America: Plant Closings, Community Abandonment, and the Dismantling of Basic Industry.” They pointed out the irony that the Japanese were successfully investing in US industrial sectors that scarcely a decade ago were said to be declining, uncompetitive, and suffering from deindustrialization. The Plaza Accord The Plaza Accord in September 1985 effectively devalued the dollar against other major currencies. Initially, the US trade deficit worsened, as imports rose in price with a devalued dollar. However, the devaluation made US exports cheaper for its trading partners to purchase, which grew the market in goods and services — which are unaccounted for in the current administration’s calculation. China and the WTO Finally, in 2001, China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO). What followed was a massive dislocation in trade as China built world-class factories and world-class ports to ship goods throughout the world. Some of those factories have since relocated to nations with cheaper labor. However, a whole ecosystem of suppliers has grown up that supports the manufacturing and assembly of sophisticated products. China’s development took over 30 years. It was no shortcut. It was also the result of extensive industrial policy similar to what Japan and the Four Tigers had done previously. Most importantly, these policies did not deviate for decades and supported a long-term strategy whereby investment could be made with confidence. Our current politics are such that it is impossible to invest in today’s doctrine because it may no longer be applicable by the time the factory opens in three to eight years. In the past 30 years, trade has increased dramatically as a share of gross domestic product (GDP). However, while most economists believe that this has been good for the economy, the general public’s outlook is less sanguine. In large part, this is because trade’s impacts can vary widely: localized changes in jobs (both gains and losses) and reduced prices of goods and services. Freight is inextricably linked to trade. It has transformed our industry. We will no doubt have a ringside seat to the policy that is evolving. Contact Ted Prince at ted@tricitiesintermodal.com .

A history lesson while we watch current US trade policy unfold

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The new global trade environment has significantly increased supply chain challenges, notably the arbitrary nature of the implementation of US tariffs.</div>

The new global trade environment has significantly increased supply chain challenges, notably the arbitrary nature of the implementation of US tariffs.

<div class="phx-topic">This commentary is not specifically about tariffs, or about capacity shortages or surpluses or what to expect if your shipment happens to be transferred to a Chinese vessel or service — whatever that means today. Instead, it considers a related question: How do supply chain practitioners balance demand and supply planning in the current environment of uncertainty? To start, let’s assume you are a medium-size importer into the US from any Asian country subject to tariffs nominally above 20%. At this stage, you have called on the more recent lessons from the first term of Donald Trump and from the COVID-19 pandemic. These will include, but are not limited to, some form of cost-sharing of the increase, somewhere between you absorbing it all to the supplier wearing the whole lot. If you are buying in US dollars, then your supplier is already suffering and will have less room to maneuver. To counter this, a temporary option could be to switch to buying in your supplier’s local currency. This will have some appeal to your supplier as they are possibly overweight in the dollar and have actual costs in local currency. A lot will depend on your view of the trajectory of the dollar. However, two notes of caution: You will still have transaction costs when converting from the US dollar to the local currency, and depending on the country you source from, you may face capital controls if you need to get money back. Furthermore, changing back and forth in currencies has administrative risks with potential payment delays and errors. No doubt there will be a suggestion of suppliers providing lower-than-correct value invoices and some form of offline reconciliation. But doing the right thing in the face of malevolence has its longer-term reward. And besides, the penalties do not merit the risk. <h3>‘Roulette game’ </h3>You will have reduced your destination-side inventory to the degree of ensuring safety stocks. If you managed to get ahead of the tariff increases, you will be sitting on volume that requires warehousing. But as you have avoided tariffs to some degree, this will maintain your competitiveness — despite the increased warehousing and inventory working capital cost — assuming your competitors source from outside the US However, the new environment has significantly increased challenges. First, the rate at which tariff levels are changing makes supply planning a roulette game. This is primarily due to the arbitrary nature of their implementation, unlike previous changes that gave some degree of leeway for orders already in process and/or on the water. Equally challenging is the rollercoaster nature of the degree of tariff moves both up and down. Finally, the tactical response <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/scaled-back-ustr-port-tariff-to-hit-chinese-carriers-hardest-5987549">to avoid Chinese-built, -owned, and -operated ships</a> will be a nightmare for all logisticians. This is particularly important because carrier and vessel choice is largely transactional at an operational level based on guidance from sourcing, so the likelihood of an error costing thousands is high. Where does that leave beneficial cargo owners (BCOs) in deciding which tactics to adopt? Frankly, for the foreseeable future, you will need to choose your poison. The somewhat binary options of manufacturing and storing at origin have appeal, particularly if the <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/air-cargo-volumes-fall-on-trans-pacific-as-us-de-minimis-changes-loom-5993599">removal of de minimis</a> has a projected impact of freeing up air freight space, allowing cheaper (but not cheap) delivery for urgent orders. Alternatively, having the right stocks in place at the right time will do much for customer relations and, intuitively, result in less likelihood of discounting. The downside will be increased costs that will depend on the cost of the tariff versus your sale price. This will mean you either absorb the increase, thus reducing margins and profitability, or try to pass it on to consumers. The final kicker to this issue is consumer demand. With quite consistent indicators from many sources — Goldman Sachs, the International Monetary Fund, the University of Michigan and others— indicating at best a slowdown in all economies, the likelihood of stagflation emerging in the US, or at best/worst the return of inflation, is actually your greatest risk. Because if consumers truly defer consumption expecting lower prices through price reduction and/or discounting to stimulate demand (stagflation), or cannot afford to spend or increase credit card debt (inflation), then these two factors will cause greater headaches than your deliberations on supply planning. John McCauley, formerly a long-standing vice president of transportation and logistics at Cargill, now consults for shippers. Contact him at <a href="mailto:john-mccauley1@outlook.com">john-mccauley1@outlook.com</a>.</div>

This commentary is not specifically about tariffs, or about capacity shortages or surpluses or what to expect if your shipment happens to be transferred to a Chinese vessel or service — whatever that means today. Instead, it considers a related question: How do supply chain practitioners balance demand and supply planning in the current environment of uncertainty? To start, let’s assume you are a medium-size importer into the US from any Asian country subject to tariffs nominally above 20%. At this stage, you have called on the more recent lessons from the first term of Donald Trump and from the COVID-19 pandemic. These will include, but are not limited to, some form of cost-sharing of the increase, somewhere between you absorbing it all to the supplier wearing the whole lot. If you are buying in US dollars, then your supplier is already suffering and will have less room to maneuver. To counter this, a temporary option could be to switch to buying in your supplier’s local currency. This will have some appeal to your supplier as they are possibly overweight in the dollar and have actual costs in local currency. A lot will depend on your view of the trajectory of the dollar. However, two notes of caution: You will still have transaction costs when converting from the US dollar to the local currency, and depending on the country you source from, you may face capital controls if you need to get money back. Furthermore, changing back and forth in currencies has administrative risks with potential payment delays and errors. No doubt there will be a suggestion of suppliers providing lower-than-correct value invoices and some form of offline reconciliation. But doing the right thing in the face of malevolence has its longer-term reward. And besides, the penalties do not merit the risk. ‘Roulette game’ You will have reduced your destination-side inventory to the degree of ensuring safety stocks. If you managed to get ahead of the tariff increases, you will be sitting on volume that requires warehousing. But as you have avoided tariffs to some degree, this will maintain your competitiveness — despite the increased warehousing and inventory working capital cost — assuming your competitors source from outside the US However, the new environment has significantly increased challenges. First, the rate at which tariff levels are changing makes supply planning a roulette game. This is primarily due to the arbitrary nature of their implementation, unlike previous changes that gave some degree of leeway for orders already in process and/or on the water. Equally challenging is the rollercoaster nature of the degree of tariff moves both up and down. Finally, the tactical response to avoid Chinese-built, -owned, and -operated ships will be a nightmare for all logisticians. This is particularly important because carrier and vessel choice is largely transactional at an operational level based on guidance from sourcing, so the likelihood of an error costing thousands is high. Where does that leave beneficial cargo owners (BCOs) in deciding which tactics to adopt? Frankly, for the foreseeable future, you will need to choose your poison. The somewhat binary options of manufacturing and storing at origin have appeal, particularly if the removal of de minimis has a projected impact of freeing up air freight space, allowing cheaper (but not cheap) delivery for urgent orders. Alternatively, having the right stocks in place at the right time will do much for customer relations and, intuitively, result in less likelihood of discounting. The downside will be increased costs that will depend on the cost of the tariff versus your sale price. This will mean you either absorb the increase, thus reducing margins and profitability, or try to pass it on to consumers. The final kicker to this issue is consumer demand. With quite consistent indicators from many sources — Goldman Sachs, the International Monetary Fund, the University of Michigan and others— indicating at best a slowdown in all economies, the likelihood of stagflation emerging in the US, or at best/worst the return of inflation, is actually your greatest risk. Because if consumers truly defer consumption expecting lower prices through price reduction and/or discounting to stimulate demand (stagflation), or cannot afford to spend or increase credit card debt (inflation), then these two factors will cause greater headaches than your deliberations on supply planning. John McCauley, formerly a long-standing vice president of transportation and logistics at Cargill, now consults for shippers. Contact him at john-mccauley1@outlook.com .

Navigating the current supply chain is a matter of choosing your poison

S&P Global Platts editors engaging with market participants to assess the current value of freight-all-kinds (FAK) rates on major container trades produce container spot rates. The rates include bunker adjustment factors, general rate increases and emergency rare restoration. They also include low-sulfur fuel, equipment imbalance and repositioning surcharges. The rates exclude terminal handling, port security, overweight container, delivery, and detention and demurrage charges. [Platts](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights)

Southeast Asia to US West and East Coast container spot rates (Platts)

Southeast Asia to US East and West Coasts Weekly Gateway

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Importers in the US are rewiring their supply chains and drawing extra inventory from Canada, Mexico and domestically in a “wait and see” response to the trans-Pacific trade war, according to Vincent Clerc.</div>

Importers in the US are rewiring their supply chains and drawing extra inventory from Canada, Mexico and domestically in a “wait and see” response to the trans-Pacific trade war, according to Vincent Clerc.

<div class="phx-topic">US retailers are in a race to find inventory from alternative sources to China, with Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc warning Thursday they may have until summer to fill stocks or risk seeing shortages “across the board.” Volume from China to the US has fallen 30% to 40% since the Trump administration’s imposition of 145% tariffs on most Chinese imports on April 9, Clerc told analysts on the carrier’s first-quarter earnings call. “Everybody is rewiring their supply chains and looking at bringing in extra inventory based on the SKUs [stock keeping units] that they’re most concerned with,” Clerc said, as shippers waited to see whether there would be any easing of tariffs on China. “Right now, the race is about trying to get your hands on as much inventory as possible,” he added. “They’re drawing on the inventories they have in Canada. They’re drawing on inventories they have in Mexico, and on distributors and other vendors inside the US to see how long they can hoard those goods.” Clerc said in the industrials and automotive sectors, and in commodities such as rare earth and semiconductors, the import decline was “going to bite soon.” “There are certain commodities where you can’t substitute imports freely, both in terms of SKUs but also in terms of quantities, because the capacity there was in China is not readily available elsewhere to support the US market,” he said. While empty shelves in big box retailers in the US were not “right around the corner,” Clerc said if inventory could not be found before the summer “it’s going to start to hurt quite a lot across the board.” Maersk is not as exposed as other carriers to the trans-Pacific disruption. The dramatic drop in US imports from China had little effect on its first-quarter result, with China-US trade comprising only 5% of the carrier’s total volume. Maersk reported a strong start to the year with revenue in the first quarter rising 7.8% year over year to $13.3 billion and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) up 70% at $2.7 billion. Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) of $1.25 billion were six times higher than the year-ago period, as was a net profit of $1.2 billion. The carrier’s volume in the first quarter grew just 0.1% year over year at 2.9 million FEUs, but it was a decline of 6.5% compared with the last quarter of 2024. Its average rates followed a similar trajectory, rising 2.5% year over year to $2,427 per FEU but down 8.7% quarter over quarter. <h3>Geopolitics drags down global volume forecast </h3>Maersk left its full-year EBIT forecast of zero to $3 billion unchanged. But the increasing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty saw the carrier leave open the possibility of negative growth in global container volumes, revising its forecast to a range between -1% and 4%. Its previous forecast was for 4% market growth in volumes. Clerc explained the reasoning behind the revised volume growth, saying the supply-side risks from new tonnage being delivered combined with a return to Red Sea transits have faded this year. Although significant amounts of capacity were still entering the market, there was little chance of carriers returning to the Red Sea this year despite <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/apparent-houthi-ceasefire-raises-container-shipping-overcapacity-risk-5999930">an apparent ceasefire with the Houthis announced earlier this week</a> by US President Donald Trump. On the demand side, Clerc pointed to the erratic nature of the US tariffs that were creating new levels of uncertainty. “For me, 145% tariffs on China were not really in the base case that we had ... and some of these other tariffs that have been set on pause for 90 days were also higher than what most people expected,” he said. The Trump administration a month ago announced a 90-day pause for countries open to negotiations, leaving a 10% across-the-board baseline tariff in place during the negotiating period. Some positive trade momentum has begun to emerge. The White House announced a trade deal between the US and the UK Thursday, although no details were provided, and representatives from the US and China are set to meet for trade talks in Switzerland this weekend. “If this resolves itself quickly with a lot of trade deals within the 90 days, and maybe a de-escalation with China, you will see the demand side bounce back to somewhere around 4% for the year,” Clerc said. But if the tariffs became entrenched, it would lead to lower global demand and increase the risk of recession in the US, he added. “Because ultimately, given the lack of alternatives to China, both in terms of scale and breadth, this will have to be passed on to consumers,” Clerc said. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

US retailers are in a race to find inventory from alternative sources to China, with Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc warning Thursday they may have until summer to fill stocks or risk seeing shortages “across the board.” Volume from China to the US has fallen 30% to 40% since the Trump administration’s imposition of 145% tariffs on most Chinese imports on April 9, Clerc told analysts on the carrier’s first-quarter earnings call. “Everybody is rewiring their supply chains and looking at bringing in extra inventory based on the SKUs [stock keeping units] that they’re most concerned with,” Clerc said, as shippers waited to see whether there would be any easing of tariffs on China. “Right now, the race is about trying to get your hands on as much inventory as possible,” he added. “They’re drawing on the inventories they have in Canada. They’re drawing on inventories they have in Mexico, and on distributors and other vendors inside the US to see how long they can hoard those goods.” Clerc said in the industrials and automotive sectors, and in commodities such as rare earth and semiconductors, the import decline was “going to bite soon.” “There are certain commodities where you can’t substitute imports freely, both in terms of SKUs but also in terms of quantities, because the capacity there was in China is not readily available elsewhere to support the US market,” he said. While empty shelves in big box retailers in the US were not “right around the corner,” Clerc said if inventory could not be found before the summer “it’s going to start to hurt quite a lot across the board.” Maersk is not as exposed as other carriers to the trans-Pacific disruption. The dramatic drop in US imports from China had little effect on its first-quarter result, with China-US trade comprising only 5% of the carrier’s total volume. Maersk reported a strong start to the year with revenue in the first quarter rising 7.8% year over year to $13.3 billion and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) up 70% at $2.7 billion. Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) of $1.25 billion were six times higher than the year-ago period, as was a net profit of $1.2 billion. The carrier’s volume in the first quarter grew just 0.1% year over year at 2.9 million FEUs, but it was a decline of 6.5% compared with the last quarter of 2024. Its average rates followed a similar trajectory, rising 2.5% year over year to $2,427 per FEU but down 8.7% quarter over quarter. Geopolitics drags down global volume forecast Maersk left its full-year EBIT forecast of zero to $3 billion unchanged. But the increasing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty saw the carrier leave open the possibility of negative growth in global container volumes, revising its forecast to a range between -1% and 4%. Its previous forecast was for 4% market growth in volumes. Clerc explained the reasoning behind the revised volume growth, saying the supply-side risks from new tonnage being delivered combined with a return to Red Sea transits have faded this year. Although significant amounts of capacity were still entering the market, there was little chance of carriers returning to the Red Sea this year despite an apparent ceasefire with the Houthis announced earlier this week by US President Donald Trump. On the demand side, Clerc pointed to the erratic nature of the US tariffs that were creating new levels of uncertainty. “For me, 145% tariffs on China were not really in the base case that we had ... and some of these other tariffs that have been set on pause for 90 days were also higher than what most people expected,” he said. The Trump administration a month ago announced a 90-day pause for countries open to negotiations, leaving a 10% across-the-board baseline tariff in place during the negotiating period. Some positive trade momentum has begun to emerge. The White House announced a trade deal between the US and the UK Thursday, although no details were provided, and representatives from the US and China are set to meet for trade talks in Switzerland this weekend. “If this resolves itself quickly with a lot of trade deals within the 90 days, and maybe a de-escalation with China, you will see the demand side bounce back to somewhere around 4% for the year,” Clerc said. But if the tariffs became entrenched, it would lead to lower global demand and increase the risk of recession in the US, he added. “Because ultimately, given the lack of alternatives to China, both in terms of scale and breadth, this will have to be passed on to consumers,” Clerc said. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

US in race to replenish China stocks to avoid summer shortages: Maersk CEO

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The world’s largest shipping company said Wednesday the service suspensions and network changes were “in response to the recent changes in demand for cargo transport from Asia to the US.”</div>

The world’s largest shipping company said Wednesday the service suspensions and network changes were “in response to the recent changes in demand for cargo transport from Asia to the US.”

<div class="phx-topic">Mediterranean Shipping Co. has halted two services from China to the US and revamped other container services to the East and Gulf coasts as the Trump administration’s tariffs against Beijing continue to weaken freight demand. The world’s largest shipping company said in an advisory Wednesday the service suspensions and network changes were “in response to the recent changes in demand for cargo transport from Asia to the US.” Following the Trump administration’s imposition of 145% tariffs on most Chinese imports, ocean carriers reported seeing container volumes drop by one-third. Hapag-Lloyd and US-based Matson both said volumes out of China dropped 30% after April 9 when the new China tariffs went into effect. The affected MSC services are all part of <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/network-realignment-shines-light-on-hub-focused-product-vs-direct-calls-5783930">the carrier’s 2025 network following the dissolution of the 2M Alliance with Maersk</a>. In place of Maersk, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/zim-msc-ink-cooperation-deal-on-services-linking-asia-europe-and-med-5223119">Zim Integrated Shipping Services has signed on to share vessel space and charter slots</a> on some of MSC’s Asia-US routes. The suspensions include the Empire service, which calls three of China’s largest ports and the East Coast ports of New York and New Jersey, Norfolk and Baltimore. The service provided 11,500 TEUs in weekly capacity, according to a report from Hong Kong-based logistics provider Honour Lane Shipping.MSC will also suspend the Pelican service from the Chinese ports of Xiamen and Yantian, along with Vietnam’s Vung Tau and South Korea’s Busan, and calling the Gulf Coast ports of Houston, Mobile and Tampa. Honour Lane said the Pelican service provides weekly capacity ranging between 6,500 and 8,500 TEUs. <h3>Boost SE Asia coverage</h3>The two service suspensions coincide with other interim changes by MSC taking effect this week on four other services that will increase port coverage of Southeast Asia and fill in coverage gaps. The America service from Asia to the US East Coast will stop calling China’s Yantian port, MSC said, while adding a westbound call at Vietnam’s Haiphong port and an eastbound call at the Port of Colombo in Sri Lanka. The service will also add East Coast calls at the ports of Savannah and Jacksonville, while dropping a call to Norfolk. The Amberjack service from China to the US Southeast will drop a call at China’s Nansha port but keep calling other major Chinese ports. Likewise, the Amberjack’s US rotation will now make its first two calls at the ports of New York-New Jersey and Baltimore and drop service to the Port of Wilmington, North Carolina. MSC’s Emerald service will add an outbound call at Taiwan’s Kaohsiung port. The service’s US leg will stop calling Jacksonville and Baltimore but add calls to Norfolk and Boston. The Lone Star service from Asia to the Gulf Coast will add a call at China’s Yantian port, along with adding calls to Singapore and Vung Tau. The service’s US rotation will drop a call at the Port of New Orleans. The MSC suspensions, among the first big ones to hit the East and Gulf coasts, follow similar steps for West Coast services that are also heavily exposed to Chinese freight. Alphaliner reported Tuesday that MSC also suspended its Orient service to Long Beach, while OOCL suspended its Pacific South China Express service to Long Beach.Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Mediterranean Shipping Co. has halted two services from China to the US and revamped other container services to the East and Gulf coasts as the Trump administration’s tariffs against Beijing continue to weaken freight demand. The world’s largest shipping company said in an advisory Wednesday the service suspensions and network changes were “in response to the recent changes in demand for cargo transport from Asia to the US.” Following the Trump administration’s imposition of 145% tariffs on most Chinese imports, ocean carriers reported seeing container volumes drop by one-third. Hapag-Lloyd and US-based Matson both said volumes out of China dropped 30% after April 9 when the new China tariffs went into effect. The affected MSC services are all part of the carrier’s 2025 network following the dissolution of the 2M Alliance with Maersk . In place of Maersk, Zim Integrated Shipping Services has signed on to share vessel space and charter slots on some of MSC’s Asia-US routes. The suspensions include the Empire service, which calls three of China’s largest ports and the East Coast ports of New York and New Jersey, Norfolk and Baltimore. The service provided 11,500 TEUs in weekly capacity, according to a report from Hong Kong-based logistics provider Honour Lane Shipping. MSC will also suspend the Pelican service from the Chinese ports of Xiamen and Yantian, along with Vietnam’s Vung Tau and South Korea’s Busan, and calling the Gulf Coast ports of Houston, Mobile and Tampa. Honour Lane said the Pelican service provides weekly capacity ranging between 6,500 and 8,500 TEUs. Boost SE Asia coverage The two service suspensions coincide with other interim changes by MSC taking effect this week on four other services that will increase port coverage of Southeast Asia and fill in coverage gaps. The America service from Asia to the US East Coast will stop calling China’s Yantian port, MSC said, while adding a westbound call at Vietnam’s Haiphong port and an eastbound call at the Port of Colombo in Sri Lanka. The service will also add East Coast calls at the ports of Savannah and Jacksonville, while dropping a call to Norfolk. The Amberjack service from China to the US Southeast will drop a call at China’s Nansha port but keep calling other major Chinese ports. Likewise, the Amberjack’s US rotation will now make its first two calls at the ports of New York-New Jersey and Baltimore and drop service to the Port of Wilmington, North Carolina. MSC’s Emerald service will add an outbound call at Taiwan’s Kaohsiung port. The service’s US leg will stop calling Jacksonville and Baltimore but add calls to Norfolk and Boston. The Lone Star service from Asia to the Gulf Coast will add a call at China’s Yantian port, along with adding calls to Singapore and Vung Tau. The service’s US rotation will drop a call at the Port of New Orleans. The MSC suspensions, among the first big ones to hit the East and Gulf coasts, follow similar steps for West Coast services that are also heavily exposed to Chinese freight. Alphaliner reported Tuesday that MSC also suspended its Orient service to Long Beach, while OOCL suspended its Pacific South China Express service to Long Beach. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

North American ports

MSC suspends two US services, rejigs others as tariffs hit Chinese imports

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">A slip in a key sentiment index reveals the MPV sector’s vulnerability to general market uncertainty, but operators remain optimistic that the cargo pipeline is still robust. </div>

A slip in a key sentiment index reveals the MPV sector’s vulnerability to general market uncertainty, but operators remain optimistic that the cargo pipeline is still robust.

<div class="phx-topic">A sense of unease has settled over the project cargo sector as softening multipurpose freight rates and a climate of near-term market uncertainty prevail, stakeholders say. The benchmark indicator for the multipurpose vessel (MPV) sector, the One World Shipbrokers’ Market Sentiment Index (MSI) that was published Tuesday, reflects the headwinds facing the industry, dropping from 54.3 in the previous edition to 53.3 points. Still, the figure remains above the crucial 50-point mark, which delineates generally positive versus negative sentiment. Friday &amp; Co shipbroker Justin Archard, creator of the One World Shipbrokers’ MSI, noted that at the time of polling for the latest index, the announcement of a highly punitive US tariff regime had just been made, followed quickly by a moratorium on many of those tariffs after significant convulsions in equity and bond markets. Archard said that “nothing stops investment and growth like uncertainty and much of the business world is now sitting on its hands waiting for the situation to play out.” <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="f0797b66-fe22-4f8b-aeed-cca72e834834"></dynamic-object></div>Operators are observing that shipping committed cargo remains a priority, while shipments that can be delayed are being postponed. Michael Morland, project cargo director for the Atlantic at G2 Ocean, told the Journal of Commerce that new projects are facing difficulties in obtaining final investment decisions due to the shifting economic climate, particularly for industrial projects and commodities. Morland added that doubts about future project cargo volumes are “increasing risk and making importers hesitant.” Felix Schoeller, director at AAL Shipping, told the Journal of Commerce that “many stakeholders are adopting a wait-and-see approach to current investment decisions … any shift in trade patterns will take time to materialize — if at all.” Schoeller expects the current situation to calm in the coming months, providing a clearer picture of policies and tariffs, which will allow for a better assessment of market development. Lars Bonnesen, managing director of Germany’s United Heavy Lift (UHL), described the current market as “a bit of a rollercoaster, and it’s quite difficult to prepare for the future with any certainty.” Data from Esgian, the Norwegian shipbroker and maritime consultancy, showed UHL and G2 Ocean were among the MPV operators heavily focused on the US market. Some 68% of UHL’s ocean sailings last year were on US trade lanes, while for G2 Ocean, 51% of sailings were between the US and the East Coast of South America, according to an Esgian analysis of route data from last year published in its February market report. <h3>Underlying fundamentals still strong </h3>Despite the pervasive uncertainty, the MPV fleet remains largely fully employed, with both freight and time charter levels at healthy and sustainable levels. While the sale and purchase market for MPVs is currently experiencing difficulties due to valuation gaps between buyers and sellers, quality tonnage is achieving strong rates on the commercial charter market, offering owners a viable alternative to selling. Looking ahead, MPV operators and owners still anticipate the MSI to be higher in a year’s time, although confidence in the future market environment has waned over the last three MSI editions. Bonnesen mirrored the confidence about longer-term prospects. “I’m not overly concerned about the current situation,” he said. “All in all, I feel quite confident. On top of that, our order books are pretty full for the next three to four years.” A notable MSI development highlighted by Archard is the unprecedented convergence of regional sentiment. Sentiment in the Americas is described as being in “relative freefall,” while Asian carriers maintain a more positive longer-term outlook. The One World Shipbrokers’ Market Sentiment Index (MSI) averages the responses from an anonymous group of 20 to 30 MPV owners and operators to a set of breakbulk shipping-related questions. A reading of 50 is neutral, indicating a static market, while scores below 50 show pessimism or wariness and scores above 50 indicate optimism. Contact Carly Fields at <a href="mailto:carly.fields@spglobal.com">carly.fields@spglobal.com</a>. Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>.</div>

A sense of unease has settled over the project cargo sector as softening multipurpose freight rates and a climate of near-term market uncertainty prevail, stakeholders say. The benchmark indicator for the multipurpose vessel (MPV) sector, the One World Shipbrokers’ Market Sentiment Index (MSI) that was published Tuesday, reflects the headwinds facing the industry, dropping from 54.3 in the previous edition to 53.3 points. Still, the figure remains above the crucial 50-point mark, which delineates generally positive versus negative sentiment. Friday & Co shipbroker Justin Archard, creator of the One World Shipbrokers’ MSI, noted that at the time of polling for the latest index, the announcement of a highly punitive US tariff regime had just been made, followed quickly by a moratorium on many of those tariffs after significant convulsions in equity and bond markets. Archard said that “nothing stops investment and growth like uncertainty and much of the business world is now sitting on its hands waiting for the situation to play out.” Operators are observing that shipping committed cargo remains a priority, while shipments that can be delayed are being postponed. Michael Morland, project cargo director for the Atlantic at G2 Ocean, told the Journal of Commerce that new projects are facing difficulties in obtaining final investment decisions due to the shifting economic climate, particularly for industrial projects and commodities. Morland added that doubts about future project cargo volumes are “increasing risk and making importers hesitant.” Felix Schoeller, director at AAL Shipping, told the Journal of Commerce that “many stakeholders are adopting a wait-and-see approach to current investment decisions … any shift in trade patterns will take time to materialize — if at all.” Schoeller expects the current situation to calm in the coming months, providing a clearer picture of policies and tariffs, which will allow for a better assessment of market development. Lars Bonnesen, managing director of Germany’s United Heavy Lift (UHL), described the current market as “a bit of a rollercoaster, and it’s quite difficult to prepare for the future with any certainty.” Data from Esgian, the Norwegian shipbroker and maritime consultancy, showed UHL and G2 Ocean were among the MPV operators heavily focused on the US market. Some 68% of UHL’s ocean sailings last year were on US trade lanes, while for G2 Ocean, 51% of sailings were between the US and the East Coast of South America, according to an Esgian analysis of route data from last year published in its February market report. Underlying fundamentals still strong Despite the pervasive uncertainty, the MPV fleet remains largely fully employed, with both freight and time charter levels at healthy and sustainable levels. While the sale and purchase market for MPVs is currently experiencing difficulties due to valuation gaps between buyers and sellers, quality tonnage is achieving strong rates on the commercial charter market, offering owners a viable alternative to selling. Looking ahead, MPV operators and owners still anticipate the MSI to be higher in a year’s time, although confidence in the future market environment has waned over the last three MSI editions. Bonnesen mirrored the confidence about longer-term prospects. “I’m not overly concerned about the current situation,” he said. “All in all, I feel quite confident. On top of that, our order books are pretty full for the next three to four years.” A notable MSI development highlighted by Archard is the unprecedented convergence of regional sentiment. Sentiment in the Americas is described as being in “relative freefall,” while Asian carriers maintain a more positive longer-term outlook. The One World Shipbrokers’ Market Sentiment Index (MSI) averages the responses from an anonymous group of 20 to 30 MPV owners and operators to a set of breakbulk shipping-related questions. A reading of 50 is neutral, indicating a static market, while scores below 50 show pessimism or wariness and scores above 50 indicate optimism. Contact Carly Fields at carly.fields@spglobal.com . Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

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Market ‘unease’ catches up with MPVs amid tariffs, economic uncertainty

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The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

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Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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An in-depth analysis of transport trends in the multipurpose and heavy-lift fleet segment

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<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">With a “reintroduced” ground freight shipping option, UPS hopes to tempt LTL shippers seeking alternatives to LTL rates that are up 12% on average from mid-2023. </div>

With a “reintroduced” ground freight shipping option, UPS hopes to tempt LTL shippers seeking alternatives to LTL rates that are up 12% on average from mid-2023.

<div class="phx-topic">UPS no longer owns a less-than-truckload (LTL) subsidiary, but that doesn’t mean it’s lost all interest in LTL freight. The largest US package carrier has “reintroduced” UPS Ground with Freight Pricing, a service option that targets shipments weighing more than 150 pounds typically hauled by LTL carriers as part of a palletized shipment. “This positions us to be the only small package carrier that offers parcel-like pricing for less-than-truckload shipments, which is a true differentiator,” Carol B. Tomé, UPS CEO, said in a first-quarter earnings call last Tuesday. UPS’ major small package competitor, FedEx, owns its own LTL carrier, although it plans to spin off FedEx Freight in 2026. The service is being revived by UPS at a time when LTL shipping costs are rising, with the US long-distance LTL producer price index (PPI) up 5.5% year over year in March and 6% on average in the first quarter. Overall, the selling prices the PPI represents have climbed 12.1% since Yellow, once one of the largest LTL carriers, collapsed in July 2023. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="397d0614-9019-449a-8ca0-64a882efbfbf"></dynamic-object></div>As LTL prices rise, shippers show more interest in alternative modes and shipping options. “We see customers choosing other options in certain instances when we’re taking rate increases,” Matthew J. Batteh, CFO of LTL carrier Saia, said in an earnings call last week. “Customers always challenge the pricing increases that we propose.” With excess truckload capacity available and truckload rates still climbing out of the trough they entered in 2023, some shippers have tried to consolidate LTL shipments into truckloads. But parcel and package shippers have long vied for LTL freight through hundredweight programs and other options similar to ground freight pricing. “They’re bringing back LPL or less-than-pallet load, which they used to have before they bought the LTL business [UPS Freight, sold in 2021],” said Satish Jindel, president of research firm SJ Consulting Group, which covers both LTL and parcel business. “They’re looking for shipments that are higher revenue per parcel.” UPS believes it can move those shipments at a better rate for shippers than an LTL carrier. Boxes, shrink-wrapped together on a pallet, are at the core of LTL volumes, Jindel said. “Shipments under 250 pounds represent 25% of total LTL volumes, and under 500 pounds 45% of the total. Those shipments could be sitting ducks for UPS, depending on how they go after them. They don’t want the pallets, just the nice brown boxes.” UPS sold UPS Freight, now TForce Freight, to <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ups-freight-sold-to-canadas-tfi-for-800-million-5250895">TFI International for $800 million</a>. Under the 2021 sale agreement, TFI agreed to continue to utilize UPS’ domestic package network to fulfill shipments for five years. <h3>UPS, Amazon shifting freight </h3>UPS is also looking to bolster US domestic package volume, which fell 3.5% year over year in the first quarter. Ground package volume dropped 2.5% in the quarter, while volumes moving through its deferred service fell 17.3% from a year ago. That countered a 7.1% increase in international package volume, pulling UPS’ total volume down 1.9%. Some of the decline came from UPS’ reduced reliance on Amazon, which UPS calls a “glide-down” in volume. The company said it would close 73 facilities and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/ups-reports-fall-first-quarter-revenue-2025-04-29/">cut 20,000 jobs</a> as part of that reduction. UPS plans to reduce its Amazon volume by 50% by 2026, largely by dropping unprofitable shipments from Amazon fulfillment centers. “The Amazon volume we plan to keep is profitable and it is healthy volume,” Tomé said. UPS first announced the revival of the ground freight pricing offering in early April, alongside UPS Ground Saver, a business-to-consumer shipping option that offers a slower, economy version of UPS ground package service for less urgent packages. Coincidentally, the announcement came the same day Amazon launched its foray <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/amazon-ltl-offering-is-no-threat-to-standalone-carriers-odfl-5990215">into the LTL business</a>. Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>. Journal of Commerce Research Analyst Cathy Morrow Roberson contributed to this report. </div>

UPS no longer owns a less-than-truckload (LTL) subsidiary, but that doesn’t mean it’s lost all interest in LTL freight. The largest US package carrier has “reintroduced” UPS Ground with Freight Pricing, a service option that targets shipments weighing more than 150 pounds typically hauled by LTL carriers as part of a palletized shipment. “This positions us to be the only small package carrier that offers parcel-like pricing for less-than-truckload shipments, which is a true differentiator,” Carol B. Tomé, UPS CEO, said in a first-quarter earnings call last Tuesday. UPS’ major small package competitor, FedEx, owns its own LTL carrier, although it plans to spin off FedEx Freight in 2026. The service is being revived by UPS at a time when LTL shipping costs are rising, with the US long-distance LTL producer price index (PPI) up 5.5% year over year in March and 6% on average in the first quarter. Overall, the selling prices the PPI represents have climbed 12.1% since Yellow, once one of the largest LTL carriers, collapsed in July 2023. As LTL prices rise, shippers show more interest in alternative modes and shipping options. “We see customers choosing other options in certain instances when we’re taking rate increases,” Matthew J. Batteh, CFO of LTL carrier Saia, said in an earnings call last week. “Customers always challenge the pricing increases that we propose.” With excess truckload capacity available and truckload rates still climbing out of the trough they entered in 2023, some shippers have tried to consolidate LTL shipments into truckloads. But parcel and package shippers have long vied for LTL freight through hundredweight programs and other options similar to ground freight pricing. “They’re bringing back LPL or less-than-pallet load, which they used to have before they bought the LTL business [UPS Freight, sold in 2021],” said Satish Jindel, president of research firm SJ Consulting Group, which covers both LTL and parcel business. “They’re looking for shipments that are higher revenue per parcel.” UPS believes it can move those shipments at a better rate for shippers than an LTL carrier. Boxes, shrink-wrapped together on a pallet, are at the core of LTL volumes, Jindel said. “Shipments under 250 pounds represent 25% of total LTL volumes, and under 500 pounds 45% of the total. Those shipments could be sitting ducks for UPS, depending on how they go after them. They don’t want the pallets, just the nice brown boxes.” UPS sold UPS Freight, now TForce Freight, to TFI International for $800 million . Under the 2021 sale agreement, TFI agreed to continue to utilize UPS’ domestic package network to fulfill shipments for five years. UPS, Amazon shifting freight UPS is also looking to bolster US domestic package volume, which fell 3.5% year over year in the first quarter. Ground package volume dropped 2.5% in the quarter, while volumes moving through its deferred service fell 17.3% from a year ago. That countered a 7.1% increase in international package volume, pulling UPS’ total volume down 1.9%. Some of the decline came from UPS’ reduced reliance on Amazon, which UPS calls a “glide-down” in volume. The company said it would close 73 facilities and cut 20,000 jobs as part of that reduction. UPS plans to reduce its Amazon volume by 50% by 2026, largely by dropping unprofitable shipments from Amazon fulfillment centers. “The Amazon volume we plan to keep is profitable and it is healthy volume,” Tomé said. UPS first announced the revival of the ground freight pricing offering in early April, alongside UPS Ground Saver, a business-to-consumer shipping option that offers a slower, economy version of UPS ground package service for less urgent packages. Coincidentally, the announcement came the same day Amazon launched its foray into the LTL business . Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com . Journal of Commerce Research Analyst Cathy Morrow Roberson contributed to this report.

UPS seeks reentry into LTL space as LTL costs climb higher

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The freeing up of vessel capacity that has been diverted around southern Africa for the past 18 months could inject as much as 2 million TEUs of functional capacity into the global container shipping market. </div>

The freeing up of vessel capacity that has been diverted around southern Africa for the past 18 months could inject as much as 2 million TEUs of functional capacity into the global container shipping market.

<div class="phx-topic">US President Donald Trump on Tuesday said Houthi militants operating from Yemen have agreed to stop their 18-month-long series of attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. If true, the apparent ceasefire would raise the prospects of major ocean carriers returning to Suez Canal transits this year, something that would result in significant vessel overcapacity in the container shipping market.While not a formal deal, Trump said the Houthis have agreed to stop their missile and drone attacks on vessels that began in late 2023 as part of what the militants said was a show of solidarity for Gaza amid the Israel-Hamas war.The Houthis have not confirmed that a deal with the US has been made. US bombings of militant positions in Yemen have intensified in the last two months. “They don’t want to fight anymore. They just don’t want to fight. We will honor that, and we will stop the bombings,” Trump said at the White House. “They have capitulated, but more importantly we will take their word. They say they won’t be blowing up ships anymore.” Approximately 1 million to 2 million TEUs of capacity would become available if the container shipping industry returned to Suez Canal transits and no longer needed to use the lengthy diversion around southern Africa, according to Maersk estimates. An estimated 10% of global capacity has been absorbed by the longer transits, according to shipping association BIMCO. The container shipping order book is currently just over 7 million TEUs, representing 25% of the existing fleet, according to Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, with the supply-demand imbalance expected to be particularly acute over the next two years. An Israel-Hamas ceasefire and the Houthis’ pledge to not attack commercial vessels was announced in January but didn’t provide enough certainty to most container lines to restart their Suez Canal sailings. Small Asian container lines along with CMA CGM have transited the Red Sea amid Houthi threats, yet it is unclear whether the apparent de-escalation announced by Trump will change the risk calculations of carriers that include crew safety and insurance costs. The Houthis – who on Wednesday said it was the US who “backed down,” not them, according to various news reports – warned they will continue to target Israel. Zim Integrated Shipping Services, based in Israel, has been specifically targeted by Houthi militants. A return to a safe shipping environment in the region would also be a boon to Gulf-based ocean shippers, reopening a direct east-west route rather than forcing cargo owners to transship via feeder vessels or even tap overland trucking. Contact Mark Szakonyi at <a href="mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com.">mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday said Houthi militants operating from Yemen have agreed to stop their 18-month-long series of attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. If true, the apparent ceasefire would raise the prospects of major ocean carriers returning to Suez Canal transits this year, something that would result in significant vessel overcapacity in the container shipping market. While not a formal deal, Trump said the Houthis have agreed to stop their missile and drone attacks on vessels that began in late 2023 as part of what the militants said was a show of solidarity for Gaza amid the Israel-Hamas war. The Houthis have not confirmed that a deal with the US has been made. US bombings of militant positions in Yemen have intensified in the last two months. “They don’t want to fight anymore. They just don’t want to fight. We will honor that, and we will stop the bombings,” Trump said at the White House. “They have capitulated, but more importantly we will take their word. They say they won’t be blowing up ships anymore.” Approximately 1 million to 2 million TEUs of capacity would become available if the container shipping industry returned to Suez Canal transits and no longer needed to use the lengthy diversion around southern Africa, according to Maersk estimates. An estimated 10% of global capacity has been absorbed by the longer transits, according to shipping association BIMCO. The container shipping order book is currently just over 7 million TEUs, representing 25% of the existing fleet, according to Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, with the supply-demand imbalance expected to be particularly acute over the next two years. An Israel-Hamas ceasefire and the Houthis’ pledge to not attack commercial vessels was announced in January but didn’t provide enough certainty to most container lines to restart their Suez Canal sailings. Small Asian container lines along with CMA CGM have transited the Red Sea amid Houthi threats, yet it is unclear whether the apparent de-escalation announced by Trump will change the risk calculations of carriers that include crew safety and insurance costs. The Houthis – who on Wednesday said it was the US who “backed down,” not them, according to various news reports – warned they will continue to target Israel. Zim Integrated Shipping Services, based in Israel, has been specifically targeted by Houthi militants. A return to a safe shipping environment in the region would also be a boon to Gulf-based ocean shippers, reopening a direct east-west route rather than forcing cargo owners to transship via feeder vessels or even tap overland trucking. Contact Mark Szakonyi at mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com .

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