<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Rapidly growing occurrences of cargo theft in the US have compelled two early-stage technology companies to use data around truckload movements to assist law enforcement.</div>

Rapidly growing occurrences of cargo theft in the US have compelled two early-stage technology companies to use data around truckload movements to assist law enforcement.

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<div class="phx-topic">Two technology providers catering to the US truckload market said Friday they are partnering to tackle cargo and equipment theft. The companies, Truck Parking Club and GenLogs, will connect Truck Parking Club’s extensive data on hundreds of thousands of commercial vehicles and their movements with GenLogs’ network of roadside sensors tracking equipment location. The goal of the partnership is to assist law enforcement investigations into freight theft. “By joining forces with GenLogs, we’re leveraging our combined capabilities to assist law enforcement and ultimately make our locations more secure,” Evan Shelley, CEO of Truck Parking Club, said in a statement. Truck Parking Club helps drivers and carriers reserve parking through a network of more than 1,000 properties, including trucking companies, repair shops, trailer leasing sites, truck stops and standalone truck parking operators. GenLogs, whose core product leverages its sensor network to give freight brokers insight into available truckload capacity, in November began <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/startup-technology-vendor-takes-aim-at-cargo-theft-with-free-tracking-service-5820781">providing a free tracking service</a> to help shippers, carriers and brokers locate stolen cargo or assets. The issue of cargo theft across the US trucking and intermodal markets has become so widespread that a bipartisan coalition of <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/congress-makes-fresh-attempt-to-target-cargo-theft-in-us-5982118">federal lawmakers introduced legislation</a> in April to combat incidents of theft from truck trailers and shipping containers that have exploded in frequency and sophistication in the last three years. The Combating Organized Retail Crime Act of 2025 (CORCA), sponsored by Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nevada) along with several House members, would establish a retail and supply chain crime coordination center within the US Department of Homeland Security. CargoNet, which tracks cargo crime, said in late March that cargo theft rose 27% year over year in 2024. Contact Eric Johnson at <a href="mailto:eric.johnson@spglobal.com">eric.johnson@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Two technology providers catering to the US truckload market said Friday they are partnering to tackle cargo and equipment theft. The companies, Truck Parking Club and GenLogs, will connect Truck Parking Club’s extensive data on hundreds of thousands of commercial vehicles and their movements with GenLogs’ network of roadside sensors tracking equipment location. The goal of the partnership is to assist law enforcement investigations into freight theft. “By joining forces with GenLogs, we’re leveraging our combined capabilities to assist law enforcement and ultimately make our locations more secure,” Evan Shelley, CEO of Truck Parking Club, said in a statement. Truck Parking Club helps drivers and carriers reserve parking through a network of more than 1,000 properties, including trucking companies, repair shops, trailer leasing sites, truck stops and standalone truck parking operators. GenLogs, whose core product leverages its sensor network to give freight brokers insight into available truckload capacity, in November began providing a free tracking service to help shippers, carriers and brokers locate stolen cargo or assets. The issue of cargo theft across the US trucking and intermodal markets has become so widespread that a bipartisan coalition of federal lawmakers introduced legislation in April to combat incidents of theft from truck trailers and shipping containers that have exploded in frequency and sophistication in the last three years. The Combating Organized Retail Crime Act of 2025 (CORCA), sponsored by Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nevada) along with several House members, would establish a retail and supply chain crime coordination center within the US Department of Homeland Security. CargoNet, which tracks cargo crime, said in late March that cargo theft rose 27% year over year in 2024. Contact Eric Johnson at eric.johnson@spglobal.com .

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Truckload technology providers partner on cargo theft initiative

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Paper and forest product exports climbed for the first time in more than five years in 2024, but various headwinds will challenge demand in 2025.</div>

Paper and forest product exports climbed for the first time in more than five years in 2024, but various headwinds will challenge demand in 2025.

<div class="phx-topic">Hopes that US paper and forest product exports will see another year of growth were fraying even before the biggest buyer, China, slapped 125% tariffs on inbound shipments. In March, the Chinese government suspended imports of US logs due to the alleged detection of forest pests such as bark beetles and longhorn beetles in shipments. That came just weeks before the back-and-forth tariff standoff between the US and China battered the industry in April. “All of our clients have had their Chinese orders either canceled going forward or everything on the water has been rerouted to Vietnam or back to the US, so it’s a bit of a bloodbath right now. It’s brutal,” said Stephen Zambo, CEO of AGL Group, a forwarder specializing in paper and forest products. While Vietnam has absorbed some of the redirected volume, Zambo said the country lacks the infrastructure and consumer demand to match China’s appetite for US forest products used in its own internal construction and homebuilding. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="9fa0ca3d-527f-46c8-b8ee-758d5cc09f3e"></dynamic-object></div>Total containerized export volumes grew 5.3% year over year in 2024, led by an 18% jump in shipments from the Port of Savannah, which handles nearly one-third of all outbound paper and forest products, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Those results came after several consecutive annual declines that left volumes 31.5% lower than in 2019. Mainland China accounted for 29.1% of US paper and forest product exports last year, followed by India (7.4%), Vietnam (6.2%) and Japan (3.9%). <h3>Tied to the US economy </h3>Forest product exports are particularly sensitive to the US housing market, according to Zambo and industry economists. Many American hardwood logs and lumber are exported to China and Vietnam for use in cabinetry, flooring and furniture, products that are then often imported back to the US. When demand weakens for the finished goods, so too does demand for the raw materials used to produce them. Recent housing data points to additional headwinds in 2025. US housing starts fell 11.4% in March from the month prior to an annualized rate of 1.32 million units, the steepest decline since April 2020 during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to federal statistics. Approximately 60% of residential construction companies surveyed by the National Association of Home Builders said suppliers have already raised prices or announced increases in material costs due to tariffs, with input prices rising 6.3% on average. “This will likely only add to existing affordability challenges, which, combined with an expected slowdown in the economy, will weigh on the homebuilding industry over the coming quarters,” TD Bank economist Andrew Foran wrote in an <a href="https://economics.td.com/us-housing-starts-and-permits">April 17 investor note</a>. The American Forest and Paper Association (AF&amp;PA) is also closely monitoring the Trump administration’s evolving trade policy toward Canada and Mexico, warning that new or increased tariffs could harm an already fragile sector. The group said that turning wood chips into a paper product requires several steps that occur in different facilities in Canada, Mexico and the US in an integrated cross-border supply chain. Paper products are duty-free for now, if they meet the rules of origin established under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) negotiated in 2020. But the AF&amp;PA remains concerned about the effects of tariffs on certain raw material inputs from Canada that are involved in the manufacturing process. Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Hopes that US paper and forest product exports will see another year of growth were fraying even before the biggest buyer, China, slapped 125% tariffs on inbound shipments. In March, the Chinese government suspended imports of US logs due to the alleged detection of forest pests such as bark beetles and longhorn beetles in shipments. That came just weeks before the back-and-forth tariff standoff between the US and China battered the industry in April. “All of our clients have had their Chinese orders either canceled going forward or everything on the water has been rerouted to Vietnam or back to the US, so it’s a bit of a bloodbath right now. It’s brutal,” said Stephen Zambo, CEO of AGL Group, a forwarder specializing in paper and forest products. While Vietnam has absorbed some of the redirected volume, Zambo said the country lacks the infrastructure and consumer demand to match China’s appetite for US forest products used in its own internal construction and homebuilding. Total containerized export volumes grew 5.3% year over year in 2024, led by an 18% jump in shipments from the Port of Savannah, which handles nearly one-third of all outbound paper and forest products, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Those results came after several consecutive annual declines that left volumes 31.5% lower than in 2019. Mainland China accounted for 29.1% of US paper and forest product exports last year, followed by India (7.4%), Vietnam (6.2%) and Japan (3.9%). Tied to the US economy Forest product exports are particularly sensitive to the US housing market, according to Zambo and industry economists. Many American hardwood logs and lumber are exported to China and Vietnam for use in cabinetry, flooring and furniture, products that are then often imported back to the US. When demand weakens for the finished goods, so too does demand for the raw materials used to produce them. Recent housing data points to additional headwinds in 2025. US housing starts fell 11.4% in March from the month prior to an annualized rate of 1.32 million units, the steepest decline since April 2020 during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to federal statistics. Approximately 60% of residential construction companies surveyed by the National Association of Home Builders said suppliers have already raised prices or announced increases in material costs due to tariffs, with input prices rising 6.3% on average. “This will likely only add to existing affordability challenges, which, combined with an expected slowdown in the economy, will weigh on the homebuilding industry over the coming quarters,” TD Bank economist Andrew Foran wrote in an April 17 investor note . The American Forest and Paper Association (AF&PA) is also closely monitoring the Trump administration’s evolving trade policy toward Canada and Mexico, warning that new or increased tariffs could harm an already fragile sector. The group said that turning wood chips into a paper product requires several steps that occur in different facilities in Canada, Mexico and the US in an integrated cross-border supply chain. Paper products are duty-free for now, if they meet the rules of origin established under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) negotiated in 2020. But the AF&PA remains concerned about the effects of tariffs on certain raw material inputs from Canada that are involved in the manufacturing process. Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

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US forest product export rebound unlikely to repeat amid tariff war

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The broader goal of NYSHEX’s new container index is to provide rate information that will support the use of hedging tools for shippers, NVOs and carriers against increased volatility. </div>

The broader goal of NYSHEX’s new container index is to provide rate information that will support the use of hedging tools for shippers, NVOs and carriers against increased volatility.

<div class="phx-topic">The New York Shipping Exchange (NYSHEX) has unveiled two new indexes covering inbound US container trades that are designed to underpin index-based freight contracts between shippers and their shipping line and forwarder partners. The free-to-use indexes will initially provide rate levels on the eastbound trans-Pacific and westbound trans-Atlantic lanes, with data provided by a panel of carriers and forwarders that give NYSHEX access to the price a shipper actually paid to be loaded on a vessel the week prior. That methodology, NYSHEX said this week, will be a differentiator for the index — called the NYFI — over the range of existing container freight rate indexes already in use in the market. Those indexes include the Shanghai Container Freight Index, the Drewry World Container Index, the Xeneta Shipping Index, the Freightos Baltic Index and Platts Container Index. The NYFI was developed in conjunction with the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which owns the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), with ICE <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/nyshex-says-will-launch-ocean-freight-rate-indexes-next-year-5820643">part of an investment into NYSHEX</a> last November. NYSHEX signaled it would be developing the index at that time. The launch this week is part of a beta phase for the NYFI, with a planned rollout across global lanes by the end of the year. <h3>Prior reticence eroding </h3>NYSHEX said during a launch event this week in New York that the index is specifically designed to be used in long-term, index-linked contracts that are then supported by financial derivative products, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/near-constant-disruption-giving-new-momentum-to-freight-futures-5979859">such as freight futures or options</a>. The index will be based on freight rates captured on a freight invoice or rate bill of lading over the prior week. Essentially, the idea is that an index built using transacted rates that are close to real time, facilitated by an exchange trusted by global financial markets, will give the container shipping industry more confidence to use index-linked contracts and to experiment with financial derivatives to hedge against extreme price movements. The industry has been hesitant to use such instruments in years past, but a new period of rate volatility since the pandemic, with higher rate ceilings and larger amplitude between spot and contract, might induce a <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/freight-futures-get-second-look-amid-increased-risk-trading-volumes-5970973">more serious consideration of the tools</a>. Reticence in the market has come from both the demand and supply side. Outside of fuel, logistics teams aren’t generally accustomed to using hedging tools unless they are in commodities. But several shippers have indicated to the Journal of Commerce that their finance departments are now interested in exploring ways to mitigate ocean freight rate volatility. Ocean carriers have likewise avoided the indexes that might underpin financial derivatives because they saw those tools as commoditizing their services. But several ocean carriers are NYSHEX customers and board members, so NYSHEX’s development of an index to support both index-linked contracts and derivatives is a signal they are more ready than ever to participate in those developments. NYSHEX said that shippers, non-vessel-operating common carriers (NVOs) and carriers are all part of the governance of the index. The US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) has regulatory oversight of NYSHEX, as its core product provides the digital infrastructure for binding ocean freight contracts between shippers and NVOs and carriers. Contact Eric Johnson at <a href="mailto:eric.johnson@spglobal.com">eric.johnson@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The New York Shipping Exchange (NYSHEX) has unveiled two new indexes covering inbound US container trades that are designed to underpin index-based freight contracts between shippers and their shipping line and forwarder partners. The free-to-use indexes will initially provide rate levels on the eastbound trans-Pacific and westbound trans-Atlantic lanes, with data provided by a panel of carriers and forwarders that give NYSHEX access to the price a shipper actually paid to be loaded on a vessel the week prior. That methodology, NYSHEX said this week, will be a differentiator for the index — called the NYFI — over the range of existing container freight rate indexes already in use in the market. Those indexes include the Shanghai Container Freight Index, the Drewry World Container Index, the Xeneta Shipping Index, the Freightos Baltic Index and Platts Container Index. The NYFI was developed in conjunction with the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which owns the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), with ICE part of an investment into NYSHEX last November. NYSHEX signaled it would be developing the index at that time. The launch this week is part of a beta phase for the NYFI, with a planned rollout across global lanes by the end of the year. Prior reticence eroding NYSHEX said during a launch event this week in New York that the index is specifically designed to be used in long-term, index-linked contracts that are then supported by financial derivative products, such as freight futures or options . The index will be based on freight rates captured on a freight invoice or rate bill of lading over the prior week. Essentially, the idea is that an index built using transacted rates that are close to real time, facilitated by an exchange trusted by global financial markets, will give the container shipping industry more confidence to use index-linked contracts and to experiment with financial derivatives to hedge against extreme price movements. The industry has been hesitant to use such instruments in years past, but a new period of rate volatility since the pandemic, with higher rate ceilings and larger amplitude between spot and contract, might induce a more serious consideration of the tools . Reticence in the market has come from both the demand and supply side. Outside of fuel, logistics teams aren’t generally accustomed to using hedging tools unless they are in commodities. But several shippers have indicated to the Journal of Commerce that their finance departments are now interested in exploring ways to mitigate ocean freight rate volatility. Ocean carriers have likewise avoided the indexes that might underpin financial derivatives because they saw those tools as commoditizing their services. But several ocean carriers are NYSHEX customers and board members, so NYSHEX’s development of an index to support both index-linked contracts and derivatives is a signal they are more ready than ever to participate in those developments. NYSHEX said that shippers, non-vessel-operating common carriers (NVOs) and carriers are all part of the governance of the index. The US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) has regulatory oversight of NYSHEX, as its core product provides the digital infrastructure for binding ocean freight contracts between shippers and NVOs and carriers. Contact Eric Johnson at eric.johnson@spglobal.com .

Container lines

Forwarding

NYSHEX enters container index fray targeting floating rate contract adoption

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Less-than-truckload companies are reporting low volumes and customers stressed by trade conflicts, but contract rates are climbing.</div>

Less-than-truckload companies are reporting low volumes and customers stressed by trade conflicts, but contract rates are climbing.

<div class="phx-topic">US less-than-truckload (LTL) providers have defied economic gravity through much of the three-year freight downcycle, and they appear to be doing so again, gaining rate increases from shippers in the first quarter despite a broad drop in demand. But there are signs gravity is tugging harder at LTL carriers. National LTL carrier Saia saw a change in the market’s demand “backdrop” late in the first quarter and in April. “This year, shipments in total for the company were only modestly improved from March to April, which we attribute primarily to the uncertain macroenvironment,” Saia CEO Frederick J. Holzgrefe said during a first-quarter earnings call last week. Shippers, Holzgrefe said, are taking a <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/jb-hunt-customers-waiting-for-dust-to-settle-on-tariffs-5986129">“wait-and-see” approach</a>, shipping less than normal. “We estimate the revenue impact of the sub-seasonal trends to be approximately $25 million to $40 million,” said Holzgrefe. Demand began to stall in March, the CEO said, and didn’t pick up in April. “We’re not going to predict May or June or frankly, the rest of the year,” he said. The uncertainty Saia reported is due to <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/tariff-related-disruption-spreading-as-us-shippers-pause-plans-5989017">US tariffs rising</a> as part of the Trump administration’s trade dispute with China and disputes with Canada, Mexico and other trading partners. The frontloading of imports earlier this year ahead of tariffs is giving way to canceled purchase orders, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/uneasy-west-coast-ports-watch-as-first-signs-of-trade-dispute-with-china-emerge-5995887">blanked sailings</a> and lower factory output in the middle of the second quarter. “We’re getting the first signs of some real deceleration taking place,” Keith Prather, managing partner at Armada Corporate Intelligence, said during an SMC3 webinar Tuesday on the outlook for the US economy and LTL sector. "We’re going through this period of 60 to 90 days where we’ve got such uncertainty that everything is stalling.” Even where the freight economy is not stalling, “customers are producing less,” ABF Freight System President Matthew R. Godfrey said during an earnings call last week. Shipments in the first quarter were down 0.4% from a year ago at ABF, a subsidiary of ArcBest. <h3>LTL rates still climbing </h3>Despite an overall decline in freight demand and volume, however, contractual LTL renewal rates are rising year over year, typically in the mid-single digits, climbing about 4% to 6% on average on an annualized basis in the first quarter. LTL capacity is still lower than it was in 2023, before the <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/yellows-collapse-already-pushing-ltl-rates-higher-as-capacity-tightens-5216052">collapse of Yellow</a>, then the third-largest LTL provider. And although LTL carriers are still bringing more capacity to market, including former Yellow terminals, they’re slowing expenditures to match the market. Although LTL volumes have dropped by double digits since 2022, according to carriers and analysts, rates paid by shippers are now even higher than their peak in June of that year, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index (PPI) for LTL trucking. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="397d0614-9019-449a-8ca0-64a882efbfbf"></dynamic-object></div>The long-distance LTL PPI, which includes transactional and contract LTL rates and surcharges paid by shippers, was up 6% on average in the first quarter. That validates carrier claims of mid-single-digit percentage gains in pricing. “We’re a very disciplined industry, and we’re not seeing any of our peers lose any discipline” when it comes to pricing, Mario Harik, CEO of XPO, the third-largest LTL carrier, told the Journal of Commerce Wednesday. Shippers can still find LTL savings if they have the right freight in the right lane for the right carrier, according to Mike Regan, chief relationship officer at TranzAct Technologies, a transportation technology and consulting firm. “Pricing has been bizarre,” Regan said. In negotiations with carriers, “we’re giving customers savings, but we were anticipating increases,” he said. The savings come from aligning freight and lanes with the network and needs of the LTL carrier. “We’ve seen one shipper enter into negotiations expecting a 3% to 5% increase and instead it’s going to be a 14% reduction,” Regan said. That’s a sign that “we’re not in a balanced market anymore,” he said. Carriers, both LTL and truckload, have for years called for greater alignment between shipper freight and their networks, but low freight volumes may heighten the need to more carefully match shipments and lanes, creating new opportunities for shippers. <h3>Shelter from the storm </h3>While LTL carriers aren’t immune to changes in the US and global economies, they’re a bit more sheltered than their truckload counterparts or drayage providers. That’s thanks to increases in US inventory, according to XPO’s Harik. “At forwarders or <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-drayage-providers-bracing-for-container-plunge-say-rebound-could-reset-market-5994621">drayage companies</a>, if inbound ocean containers are down, it will impact their business directly,” he said. “But at LTL companies, the product comes into the US and then it goes into inventory, and that’s a buffer for us. We see more of an indirect impact, and it’s more spread out.” The bigger impact comes when those inventories are drawn down, triggering replenishment demand. Even then, “if you have less inventory there’s a high likelihood you won’t have enough product to complete a truckload shipment,” Harik said. With some shippers sourcing more inputs and freight within the US, “it’s very hard to estimate what the impact will be on LTL volumes” as the trade war drags on, he said. Similar to ocean carriers and drayage providers, Harik warns that there will be an “uptick following the downdraft” in freight, and that may impact LTL volumes as well. Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

US less-than-truckload (LTL) providers have defied economic gravity through much of the three-year freight downcycle, and they appear to be doing so again, gaining rate increases from shippers in the first quarter despite a broad drop in demand. But there are signs gravity is tugging harder at LTL carriers. National LTL carrier Saia saw a change in the market’s demand “backdrop” late in the first quarter and in April. “This year, shipments in total for the company were only modestly improved from March to April, which we attribute primarily to the uncertain macroenvironment,” Saia CEO Frederick J. Holzgrefe said during a first-quarter earnings call last week. Shippers, Holzgrefe said, are taking a “wait-and-see” approach , shipping less than normal. “We estimate the revenue impact of the sub-seasonal trends to be approximately $25 million to $40 million,” said Holzgrefe. Demand began to stall in March, the CEO said, and didn’t pick up in April. “We’re not going to predict May or June or frankly, the rest of the year,” he said. The uncertainty Saia reported is due to US tariffs rising as part of the Trump administration’s trade dispute with China and disputes with Canada, Mexico and other trading partners. The frontloading of imports earlier this year ahead of tariffs is giving way to canceled purchase orders, blanked sailings and lower factory output in the middle of the second quarter. “We’re getting the first signs of some real deceleration taking place,” Keith Prather, managing partner at Armada Corporate Intelligence, said during an SMC3 webinar Tuesday on the outlook for the US economy and LTL sector. "We’re going through this period of 60 to 90 days where we’ve got such uncertainty that everything is stalling.” Even where the freight economy is not stalling, “customers are producing less,” ABF Freight System President Matthew R. Godfrey said during an earnings call last week. Shipments in the first quarter were down 0.4% from a year ago at ABF, a subsidiary of ArcBest. LTL rates still climbing Despite an overall decline in freight demand and volume, however, contractual LTL renewal rates are rising year over year, typically in the mid-single digits, climbing about 4% to 6% on average on an annualized basis in the first quarter. LTL capacity is still lower than it was in 2023, before the collapse of Yellow , then the third-largest LTL provider. And although LTL carriers are still bringing more capacity to market, including former Yellow terminals, they’re slowing expenditures to match the market. Although LTL volumes have dropped by double digits since 2022, according to carriers and analysts, rates paid by shippers are now even higher than their peak in June of that year, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index (PPI) for LTL trucking. The long-distance LTL PPI, which includes transactional and contract LTL rates and surcharges paid by shippers, was up 6% on average in the first quarter. That validates carrier claims of mid-single-digit percentage gains in pricing. “We’re a very disciplined industry, and we’re not seeing any of our peers lose any discipline” when it comes to pricing, Mario Harik, CEO of XPO, the third-largest LTL carrier, told the Journal of Commerce Wednesday. Shippers can still find LTL savings if they have the right freight in the right lane for the right carrier, according to Mike Regan, chief relationship officer at TranzAct Technologies, a transportation technology and consulting firm. “Pricing has been bizarre,” Regan said. In negotiations with carriers, “we’re giving customers savings, but we were anticipating increases,” he said. The savings come from aligning freight and lanes with the network and needs of the LTL carrier. “We’ve seen one shipper enter into negotiations expecting a 3% to 5% increase and instead it’s going to be a 14% reduction,” Regan said. That’s a sign that “we’re not in a balanced market anymore,” he said. Carriers, both LTL and truckload, have for years called for greater alignment between shipper freight and their networks, but low freight volumes may heighten the need to more carefully match shipments and lanes, creating new opportunities for shippers. Shelter from the storm While LTL carriers aren’t immune to changes in the US and global economies, they’re a bit more sheltered than their truckload counterparts or drayage providers. That’s thanks to increases in US inventory, according to XPO’s Harik. “At forwarders or drayage companies , if inbound ocean containers are down, it will impact their business directly,” he said. “But at LTL companies, the product comes into the US and then it goes into inventory, and that’s a buffer for us. We see more of an indirect impact, and it’s more spread out.” The bigger impact comes when those inventories are drawn down, triggering replenishment demand. Even then, “if you have less inventory there’s a high likelihood you won’t have enough product to complete a truckload shipment,” Harik said. With some shippers sourcing more inputs and freight within the US, “it’s very hard to estimate what the impact will be on LTL volumes” as the trade war drags on, he said. Similar to ocean carriers and drayage providers, Harik warns that there will be an “uptick following the downdraft” in freight, and that may impact LTL volumes as well. Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .

US LTL rates rising despite falling volumes, more cautious shippers

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">While ongoing port congestion in North Europe and longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope will help to absorb incoming vessels, it will also leave the trade lane open to volatile shifts in capacity that cannot be planned for, a Journal of Commerce webinar was told. </div>

While ongoing port congestion in North Europe and longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope will help to absorb incoming vessels, it will also leave the trade lane open to volatile shifts in capacity that cannot be planned for, a Journal of Commerce webinar was told.

<div class="phx-topic">The suspension of shipments from China to the US and the swath of blank sailings on the trans-Pacific could result in a significant shift of capacity to other trade lanes, including Asia-Europe and the trans-Atlantic, according to Kuehne + Nagel’s Alexandra Ilascu. While the ongoing port congestion in North Europe and longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope will help to absorb incoming vessels, it will also leave the trade lane open to volatile shifts in capacity that cannot be planned for, Ilascu told the Journal of Commerce’s Asia-Europe webinar this week. “There is a clear trend from the carrier side of cutting capacity on Asia-US and China-US specifically, and what will happen next is they take these ships and distribute them across various trades,” she said. “The first trade will be Latin America, then Africa and then to Asia-North Europe and Asia-Mediterranean,” added Ilascu, K + N’s global sea logistics trade manager for Asia, the Indian subcontinent, Middle East and Europe. The issue for forwarders and their customers is that sailing schedules and the Asia-Europe shipping networks will be stabilized around the incoming capacity. But when the China-US situation is resolved or tariffs are lowered and demand returns to the trans-Pacific, the vessels shifted to Asia-Europe will be quickly moved back to Asia. “The volatility and the peaks and the lows of the capacity could potentially happen during the peak season,” Ilascu warned. Bookings for China to the US <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/trans-pacific-capacity-cuts-accelerating-amid-sharp-reduction-in-chinese-cargo-5992769">dropped nearly 54% during the week of April 21–28</a> versus the comparable week in March, according to maritime visibility provider Vizion and data and analytics company Dun &amp; Bradstreet. Some of the US big box retailers have resumed shipments, but there are no signs that the 145% tariffs imposed by the US and the 125% reciprocal tariffs from China will be lifted anytime soon. <h3>China floating promotional deals to Europe retailers </h3>The slowdown in cargo shipments from China to the US has seen Chinese manufacturers extending promotional offers or more flexible rate options to European importers, said Toni Rigalos, managing partner at ShiftX, a firm that handles carrier procurement for cargo owners in Europe. So far there has been little interest in the discount options, Rigalos told the webinar. “We have several big retail customers, and they are not jumping on these promotional deals from the manufacturers,” he said. “The demand is not really picking up here in Europe, so they are also conservative in what they are doing.” <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="1aa96cfa-0835-49d5-9d5a-b7a5d7243d23"></dynamic-object></div>Europe’s major economies are struggling for growth and consumer demand remains weak across the continent, yet carriers on Asia-Europe have eased back on blank sailings in May while at the same time deploying record amounts of capacity. Data from eeSea shows that deployed capacity in May will reach 1.13 million TEUs with 73,000 TEUs being blanked, possibly an indication that carriers are expecting a surge in volume from the disrupted trans-Pacific. <h3>Blank sailings — structural or commercial? </h3>There are differing perspectives on the blank sailings. Ilascu believes they are structural and generated by the Red Sea diversions around Africa and port congestion in Europe that has resulted in each loop in the Asia-Europe network being two or three ships short. “Most of the carriers are fighting for market share in Asia-Europe and they are trying to deploy as much capacity as possible,” she said. “The rates are more or less stable for now, so these are not commercial blankings, they are structural.” Rigalos disagreed, noting that demand in May and June was not very strong and the carriers were making commercial decisions to manage their capacity and ensure a smooth roll out of the new alliance networks. “In the past two or three months, the carriers have been putting their utmost efforts into bringing ships into position so they can show good on-time performance,” he said. “Now they are seeing maybe a little too much capacity and are trying to balance that out.” Spot rates on Asia-North Europe and Asia-Mediterranean routes have flattened out in the last two weeks after dropping steeply since late December. Data from Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, shows Asia-North Europe rates at $1,800 per FEU this week, down 64% since Dec. 30. Asia-Mediterranean rates have followed a similar path and are at $2,733/FEU, a decline of 48%. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The suspension of shipments from China to the US and the swath of blank sailings on the trans-Pacific could result in a significant shift of capacity to other trade lanes, including Asia-Europe and the trans-Atlantic, according to Kuehne + Nagel’s Alexandra Ilascu. While the ongoing port congestion in North Europe and longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope will help to absorb incoming vessels, it will also leave the trade lane open to volatile shifts in capacity that cannot be planned for, Ilascu told the Journal of Commerce’s Asia-Europe webinar this week. “There is a clear trend from the carrier side of cutting capacity on Asia-US and China-US specifically, and what will happen next is they take these ships and distribute them across various trades,” she said. “The first trade will be Latin America, then Africa and then to Asia-North Europe and Asia-Mediterranean,” added Ilascu, K + N’s global sea logistics trade manager for Asia, the Indian subcontinent, Middle East and Europe. The issue for forwarders and their customers is that sailing schedules and the Asia-Europe shipping networks will be stabilized around the incoming capacity. But when the China-US situation is resolved or tariffs are lowered and demand returns to the trans-Pacific, the vessels shifted to Asia-Europe will be quickly moved back to Asia. “The volatility and the peaks and the lows of the capacity could potentially happen during the peak season,” Ilascu warned. Bookings for China to the US dropped nearly 54% during the week of April 21–28 versus the comparable week in March, according to maritime visibility provider Vizion and data and analytics company Dun & Bradstreet. Some of the US big box retailers have resumed shipments, but there are no signs that the 145% tariffs imposed by the US and the 125% reciprocal tariffs from China will be lifted anytime soon. China floating promotional deals to Europe retailers The slowdown in cargo shipments from China to the US has seen Chinese manufacturers extending promotional offers or more flexible rate options to European importers, said Toni Rigalos, managing partner at ShiftX, a firm that handles carrier procurement for cargo owners in Europe. So far there has been little interest in the discount options, Rigalos told the webinar. “We have several big retail customers, and they are not jumping on these promotional deals from the manufacturers,” he said. “The demand is not really picking up here in Europe, so they are also conservative in what they are doing.” Europe’s major economies are struggling for growth and consumer demand remains weak across the continent, yet carriers on Asia-Europe have eased back on blank sailings in May while at the same time deploying record amounts of capacity. Data from eeSea shows that deployed capacity in May will reach 1.13 million TEUs with 73,000 TEUs being blanked, possibly an indication that carriers are expecting a surge in volume from the disrupted trans-Pacific. Blank sailings — structural or commercial? There are differing perspectives on the blank sailings. Ilascu believes they are structural and generated by the Red Sea diversions around Africa and port congestion in Europe that has resulted in each loop in the Asia-Europe network being two or three ships short. “Most of the carriers are fighting for market share in Asia-Europe and they are trying to deploy as much capacity as possible,” she said. “The rates are more or less stable for now, so these are not commercial blankings, they are structural.” Rigalos disagreed, noting that demand in May and June was not very strong and the carriers were making commercial decisions to manage their capacity and ensure a smooth roll out of the new alliance networks. “In the past two or three months, the carriers have been putting their utmost efforts into bringing ships into position so they can show good on-time performance,” he said. “Now they are seeing maybe a little too much capacity and are trying to balance that out.” Spot rates on Asia-North Europe and Asia-Mediterranean routes have flattened out in the last two weeks after dropping steeply since late December. Data from Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, shows Asia-North Europe rates at $1,800 per FEU this week, down 64% since Dec. 30. Asia-Mediterranean rates have followed a similar path and are at $2,733/FEU, a decline of 48%. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Asia-Europe

Shift in ocean capacity from trans-Pacific spells trouble for Asia-Europe

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">While the second quarter is typically strong for freight demand, the logistics provider said the market is far from normal after the Trump administration’s tariffs spooked its customers. </div>

While the second quarter is typically strong for freight demand, the logistics provider said the market is far from normal after the Trump administration’s tariffs spooked its customers.

<div class="phx-topic">C.H. Robinson on Thursday reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings that benefited from firmer pricing in its truckload business and market share gains. Despite the second quarter typically being strong for freight demand, the company said US tariffs on China will likely impact results as its forwarding customers pause and cancel shipments. The largest US truck brokerage reported 2025 first-quarter earnings of $1.17 per share, which beat a consensus average estimate of $1.05 per share from Capital IQ Estimates, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. C.H. Robinson’s trucking business fueled the earnings gain. Despite revenue from its North American surface transportation business declining 4% to $2.8 billion, the segment’s operating income rose 32% to $143 million. Michael Castagnetto, C.H. Robinson’s president of surface transportation, said during the company’s earnings call that overall surface volumes were down 1% from a year ago versus a 6.3% drop in the Cass Freight Shipment index. Along with taking more market share, Castagnetto said C.H. Robinson got a better rate on each shipment, with the average gross profit on each shipment up 4% from a year earlier. “Our team of freight experts continues to respond to the challenging freight environment with pricing discipline,” he said. “All of this led to improvement in the average gross profit yield within both our transactional and our contractual truckload business and in our less-than-truckload business.” A similar dynamic played out in C.H. Robinson’s forwarding business, where revenue fell 10% to $774 million due to lower overall freight rates. However, segment operating income rose 36% to $42.9 million thanks to higher yields on each ocean and air shipment and a lower headcount in the forwarding unit. But that unit is heavily exposed to China, which accounts for 25% of C.H. Robinson’s forwarding volume. Chief Executive David Bozeman said the company will feel the effects of the Trump administration’s tariffs against China as many customers canceled or paused purchase orders, “causing ocean bookings out of China to decline in Q2.” While the second quarter is typically strong for freight demand, Bozeman said it was unclear whether that seasonal trend would take shape due to the economic uncertainty created by tariffs. “The new tariffs and fluid trade policies have created market uncertainty and a lack of clarity, making planning activities more difficult and causing many customers to adopt a wait-and-see approach until they understand the impact on consumer spending and global demand,” he said during the conference call. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

C.H. Robinson on Thursday reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings that benefited from firmer pricing in its truckload business and market share gains. Despite the second quarter typically being strong for freight demand, the company said US tariffs on China will likely impact results as its forwarding customers pause and cancel shipments. The largest US truck brokerage reported 2025 first-quarter earnings of $1.17 per share, which beat a consensus average estimate of $1.05 per share from Capital IQ Estimates, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. C.H. Robinson’s trucking business fueled the earnings gain. Despite revenue from its North American surface transportation business declining 4% to $2.8 billion, the segment’s operating income rose 32% to $143 million. Michael Castagnetto, C.H. Robinson’s president of surface transportation, said during the company’s earnings call that overall surface volumes were down 1% from a year ago versus a 6.3% drop in the Cass Freight Shipment index. Along with taking more market share, Castagnetto said C.H. Robinson got a better rate on each shipment, with the average gross profit on each shipment up 4% from a year earlier. “Our team of freight experts continues to respond to the challenging freight environment with pricing discipline,” he said. “All of this led to improvement in the average gross profit yield within both our transactional and our contractual truckload business and in our less-than-truckload business.” A similar dynamic played out in C.H. Robinson’s forwarding business, where revenue fell 10% to $774 million due to lower overall freight rates. However, segment operating income rose 36% to $42.9 million thanks to higher yields on each ocean and air shipment and a lower headcount in the forwarding unit. But that unit is heavily exposed to China, which accounts for 25% of C.H. Robinson’s forwarding volume. Chief Executive David Bozeman said the company will feel the effects of the Trump administration’s tariffs against China as many customers canceled or paused purchase orders, “causing ocean bookings out of China to decline in Q2.” While the second quarter is typically strong for freight demand, Bozeman said it was unclear whether that seasonal trend would take shape due to the economic uncertainty created by tariffs. “The new tariffs and fluid trade policies have created market uncertainty and a lack of clarity, making planning activities more difficult and causing many customers to adopt a wait-and-see approach until they understand the impact on consumer spending and global demand,” he said during the conference call. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

C.H. Robinson’s forwarding business faces muddy Q2 on China uncertainty

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The new global trade environment has significantly increased supply chain challenges, notably the arbitrary nature of the implementation of US tariffs.</div>

The new global trade environment has significantly increased supply chain challenges, notably the arbitrary nature of the implementation of US tariffs.

<div class="phx-topic">This commentary is not specifically about tariffs, or about capacity shortages or surpluses or what to expect if your shipment happens to be transferred to a Chinese vessel or service — whatever that means today. Instead, it considers a related question: How do supply chain practitioners balance demand and supply planning in the current environment of uncertainty? To start, let’s assume you are a medium-size importer into the US from any Asian country subject to tariffs nominally above 20%. At this stage, you have called on the more recent lessons from the first term of Donald Trump and from the COVID-19 pandemic. These will include, but are not limited to, some form of cost-sharing of the increase, somewhere between you absorbing it all to the supplier wearing the whole lot. If you are buying in US dollars, then your supplier is already suffering and will have less room to maneuver. To counter this, a temporary option could be to switch to buying in your supplier’s local currency. This will have some appeal to your supplier as they are possibly overweight in the dollar and have actual costs in local currency. A lot will depend on your view of the trajectory of the dollar. However, two notes of caution: You will still have transaction costs when converting from the US dollar to the local currency, and depending on the country you source from, you may face capital controls if you need to get money back. Furthermore, changing back and forth in currencies has administrative risks with potential payment delays and errors. No doubt there will be a suggestion of suppliers providing lower-than-correct value invoices and some form of offline reconciliation. But doing the right thing in the face of malevolence has its longer-term reward. And besides, the penalties do not merit the risk. <h3>‘Roulette game’ </h3>You will have reduced your destination-side inventory to the degree of ensuring safety stocks. If you managed to get ahead of the tariff increases, you will be sitting on volume that requires warehousing. But as you have avoided tariffs to some degree, this will maintain your competitiveness — despite the increased warehousing and inventory working capital cost — assuming your competitors source from outside the US However, the new environment has significantly increased challenges. First, the rate at which tariff levels are changing makes supply planning a roulette game. This is primarily due to the arbitrary nature of their implementation, unlike previous changes that gave some degree of leeway for orders already in process and/or on the water. Equally challenging is the rollercoaster nature of the degree of tariff moves both up and down. Finally, the tactical response <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/scaled-back-ustr-port-tariff-to-hit-chinese-carriers-hardest-5987549">to avoid Chinese-built, -owned, and -operated ships</a> will be a nightmare for all logisticians. This is particularly important because carrier and vessel choice is largely transactional at an operational level based on guidance from sourcing, so the likelihood of an error costing thousands is high. Where does that leave beneficial cargo owners (BCOs) in deciding which tactics to adopt? Frankly, for the foreseeable future, you will need to choose your poison. The somewhat binary options of manufacturing and storing at origin have appeal, particularly if the <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/air-cargo-volumes-fall-on-trans-pacific-as-us-de-minimis-changes-loom-5993599">removal of de minimis</a> has a projected impact of freeing up air freight space, allowing cheaper (but not cheap) delivery for urgent orders. Alternatively, having the right stocks in place at the right time will do much for customer relations and, intuitively, result in less likelihood of discounting. The downside will be increased costs that will depend on the cost of the tariff versus your sale price. This will mean you either absorb the increase, thus reducing margins and profitability, or try to pass it on to consumers. The final kicker to this issue is consumer demand. With quite consistent indicators from many sources — Goldman Sachs, the International Monetary Fund, the University of Michigan and others— indicating at best a slowdown in all economies, the likelihood of stagflation emerging in the US, or at best/worst the return of inflation, is actually your greatest risk. Because if consumers truly defer consumption expecting lower prices through price reduction and/or discounting to stimulate demand (stagflation), or cannot afford to spend or increase credit card debt (inflation), then these two factors will cause greater headaches than your deliberations on supply planning. John McCauley, formerly a long-standing vice president of transportation and logistics at Cargill, now consults for shippers. Contact him at <a href="mailto:john-mccauley1@outlook.com">john-mccauley1@outlook.com</a>.</div>

This commentary is not specifically about tariffs, or about capacity shortages or surpluses or what to expect if your shipment happens to be transferred to a Chinese vessel or service — whatever that means today. Instead, it considers a related question: How do supply chain practitioners balance demand and supply planning in the current environment of uncertainty? To start, let’s assume you are a medium-size importer into the US from any Asian country subject to tariffs nominally above 20%. At this stage, you have called on the more recent lessons from the first term of Donald Trump and from the COVID-19 pandemic. These will include, but are not limited to, some form of cost-sharing of the increase, somewhere between you absorbing it all to the supplier wearing the whole lot. If you are buying in US dollars, then your supplier is already suffering and will have less room to maneuver. To counter this, a temporary option could be to switch to buying in your supplier’s local currency. This will have some appeal to your supplier as they are possibly overweight in the dollar and have actual costs in local currency. A lot will depend on your view of the trajectory of the dollar. However, two notes of caution: You will still have transaction costs when converting from the US dollar to the local currency, and depending on the country you source from, you may face capital controls if you need to get money back. Furthermore, changing back and forth in currencies has administrative risks with potential payment delays and errors. No doubt there will be a suggestion of suppliers providing lower-than-correct value invoices and some form of offline reconciliation. But doing the right thing in the face of malevolence has its longer-term reward. And besides, the penalties do not merit the risk. ‘Roulette game’ You will have reduced your destination-side inventory to the degree of ensuring safety stocks. If you managed to get ahead of the tariff increases, you will be sitting on volume that requires warehousing. But as you have avoided tariffs to some degree, this will maintain your competitiveness — despite the increased warehousing and inventory working capital cost — assuming your competitors source from outside the US However, the new environment has significantly increased challenges. First, the rate at which tariff levels are changing makes supply planning a roulette game. This is primarily due to the arbitrary nature of their implementation, unlike previous changes that gave some degree of leeway for orders already in process and/or on the water. Equally challenging is the rollercoaster nature of the degree of tariff moves both up and down. Finally, the tactical response to avoid Chinese-built, -owned, and -operated ships will be a nightmare for all logisticians. This is particularly important because carrier and vessel choice is largely transactional at an operational level based on guidance from sourcing, so the likelihood of an error costing thousands is high. Where does that leave beneficial cargo owners (BCOs) in deciding which tactics to adopt? Frankly, for the foreseeable future, you will need to choose your poison. The somewhat binary options of manufacturing and storing at origin have appeal, particularly if the removal of de minimis has a projected impact of freeing up air freight space, allowing cheaper (but not cheap) delivery for urgent orders. Alternatively, having the right stocks in place at the right time will do much for customer relations and, intuitively, result in less likelihood of discounting. The downside will be increased costs that will depend on the cost of the tariff versus your sale price. This will mean you either absorb the increase, thus reducing margins and profitability, or try to pass it on to consumers. The final kicker to this issue is consumer demand. With quite consistent indicators from many sources — Goldman Sachs, the International Monetary Fund, the University of Michigan and others— indicating at best a slowdown in all economies, the likelihood of stagflation emerging in the US, or at best/worst the return of inflation, is actually your greatest risk. Because if consumers truly defer consumption expecting lower prices through price reduction and/or discounting to stimulate demand (stagflation), or cannot afford to spend or increase credit card debt (inflation), then these two factors will cause greater headaches than your deliberations on supply planning. John McCauley, formerly a long-standing vice president of transportation and logistics at Cargill, now consults for shippers. Contact him at john-mccauley1@outlook.com .

Navigating the current supply chain is a matter of choosing your poison

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The continued growth of the San Pedro Bay ports — and the inter-related rail and logistics systems — are vital to a healthy US supply chain, writes the CEO of the Alameda Corridor Transportation Authority.</div>

The continued growth of the San Pedro Bay ports — and the inter-related rail and logistics systems — are vital to a healthy US supply chain, writes the CEO of the Alameda Corridor Transportation Authority.

<div class="phx-topic">The first-quarter surge of cargo flowing into West Coast ports has prompted a key realization — the rail system serving the massive number of exports and imports that come through Southern California has expanded and modernized enough to keep current supply chains functioning, at least for now. The ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles, known as the San Pedro Bay (SPB) Ports, have invested $10 billion, including $4 billion on port rail, and have expanded their infrastructure to support intermodal cargo with efficient connectivity to the US heartland. A vital component of this effort is the Alameda Corridor — a $2 billion investment by SPB Ports to mitigate the impact on local communities and improve the efficiency of rail operations. Import volumes at SPB Ports have grown 3% annually since 2000, doubling volumes over 24 years. During that same period, rail volumes increased 2.5% annually, such that in 2024, rail handled 60% of SPB imports (28% on-dock, 32% off-dock). That rail volume is greater than the total at any other US port — a significant component of the supply chain. In 2024, we saw that SPB handled record cargo and ships were processed without delay. Throughout the 2024 surge, SPB proved itself to be a reliable gateway with available capacity and minimal risk. Rail dwell times at SPB Port terminals were carefully monitored and managed, peaking for two months at a nine-day average. And the ports’ commitment is not waning. To handle forecast cargo demand, they are investing $2.5 billion more in moving cargo efficiently by rail, including the Pier B On-dock Rail Support Facility and several on-dock modernization projects. Despite a looming tariff-related downturn, now is not the time to delay investments. Past downturns, such as the 2009 global recession, seemed insurmountable at the time. But long-term and consistent investments proved prudent as evidenced by the uninterrupted flow of cargo from the recent surge in shipments. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="b2536aba-789d-42cd-9870-4ede2743577b"></dynamic-object></div>The ports’ intermodal rail improvements, totaling $3 billion, initiated on-dock rail and expanded infrastructure to support intermodal cargo with efficient connectivity inland. The Alameda Corridor was built to handle volumes forecast to double in the next 20 to 30 years. Western railroads have made comparable investments in the transcontinental railway, and they are enhancing the supply chain with a much broader network of intermodal distribution points west of the Mississippi River. These advances, when combined with enhanced logistics technology, aimed to reduce cargo dwell times and improve transcontinental shipping time. Upcoming investment in the SPB rail system includes $2.5 billion in programmed projects, which encompass the lessons learned over several decades of port rail operations and intensive performance evaluation. The SPB gateway incorporates several intermodal components: the on-dock rail yards, support rail yards and the rail network connecting those yards, which are the focus of a continuous rail enhancement program; the investments by Union Pacific and BNSF on their transcontinental railways; and the development of new multi-modal logistics centers serving as western distribution hubs, including BNSF Railway’s Barstow International Gateway and other projects in California, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Texas. The speed and efficiency of cargo movement remains the number one priority for all interested parties. The continued growth of SPB — and the inter-related rail and logistics systems — are vital to a healthy US supply chain. We cannot be lulled by disruptions that may result in a temporary reduction in flow. Continued investments in intermodal rail are vital to a healthy supply chain. Contact Michael Leue at <a href="mailto:PR@ACTA.org">PR@ACTA.org</a>.</div>

The first-quarter surge of cargo flowing into West Coast ports has prompted a key realization — the rail system serving the massive number of exports and imports that come through Southern California has expanded and modernized enough to keep current supply chains functioning, at least for now. The ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles, known as the San Pedro Bay (SPB) Ports, have invested $10 billion, including $4 billion on port rail, and have expanded their infrastructure to support intermodal cargo with efficient connectivity to the US heartland. A vital component of this effort is the Alameda Corridor — a $2 billion investment by SPB Ports to mitigate the impact on local communities and improve the efficiency of rail operations. Import volumes at SPB Ports have grown 3% annually since 2000, doubling volumes over 24 years. During that same period, rail volumes increased 2.5% annually, such that in 2024, rail handled 60% of SPB imports (28% on-dock, 32% off-dock). That rail volume is greater than the total at any other US port — a significant component of the supply chain. In 2024, we saw that SPB handled record cargo and ships were processed without delay. Throughout the 2024 surge, SPB proved itself to be a reliable gateway with available capacity and minimal risk. Rail dwell times at SPB Port terminals were carefully monitored and managed, peaking for two months at a nine-day average. And the ports’ commitment is not waning. To handle forecast cargo demand, they are investing $2.5 billion more in moving cargo efficiently by rail, including the Pier B On-dock Rail Support Facility and several on-dock modernization projects. Despite a looming tariff-related downturn, now is not the time to delay investments. Past downturns, such as the 2009 global recession, seemed insurmountable at the time. But long-term and consistent investments proved prudent as evidenced by the uninterrupted flow of cargo from the recent surge in shipments. The ports’ intermodal rail improvements, totaling $3 billion, initiated on-dock rail and expanded infrastructure to support intermodal cargo with efficient connectivity inland. The Alameda Corridor was built to handle volumes forecast to double in the next 20 to 30 years. Western railroads have made comparable investments in the transcontinental railway, and they are enhancing the supply chain with a much broader network of intermodal distribution points west of the Mississippi River. These advances, when combined with enhanced logistics technology, aimed to reduce cargo dwell times and improve transcontinental shipping time. Upcoming investment in the SPB rail system includes $2.5 billion in programmed projects, which encompass the lessons learned over several decades of port rail operations and intensive performance evaluation. The SPB gateway incorporates several intermodal components: the on-dock rail yards, support rail yards and the rail network connecting those yards, which are the focus of a continuous rail enhancement program; the investments by Union Pacific and BNSF on their transcontinental railways; and the development of new multi-modal logistics centers serving as western distribution hubs, including BNSF Railway’s Barstow International Gateway and other projects in California, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Texas. The speed and efficiency of cargo movement remains the number one priority for all interested parties. The continued growth of SPB — and the inter-related rail and logistics systems — are vital to a healthy US supply chain. We cannot be lulled by disruptions that may result in a temporary reduction in flow. Continued investments in intermodal rail are vital to a healthy supply chain. Contact Michael Leue at PR@ACTA.org .

Port infrastructure

North American ports

Continued rail investment needed to keep boosting LA-LB port growth

GEP and S&P Global produce this index from S&P Global’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) surveys. The variables are the JP Morgan Global Quantity of Purchases Index, the All Items Supply Shortages Indicator, the Transport Price Pressure Indicator and Manufacturing PMI Comments Tracker data, stockpiling levels due to supply or price concerns and backlog activity due to staff and item shortages. [GEP](https://www.gep.com/knowledge-bank/global-supply-chain-volatility-index)

GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index (GEP and S&P Global)

GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index Gateway

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Los Angeles-Long Beach complex, which handles about half of all US imports from Asia, is so far due to experience 59 blanked sailings between May 1 and June 30.</div>

The Los Angeles-Long Beach complex, which handles about half of all US imports from Asia, is so far due to experience 59 blanked sailings between May 1 and June 30.

<div class="phx-topic">Correction: A previous version of this story attributed blank sailings for the Northwest Seaport Alliance to the Port of Prince Rupert, British Columbia.Ports and marine terminals along the US West Coast are bracing for what could be a massive drop in imports moving across their docks in the coming weeks as the tangible impacts of blank sailings and half-empty container ships arriving from China become apparent. The effects of the US trade war with Beijing will be most visible in Southern California, where stakeholders at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach — the US’ busiest gateway — expect a huge cut in imports in May, with a 35% decline in Los Angeles and 38% in Long Beach compared with their normal monthly volumes. “Leading indicators forecast a significant dip in container ship arrivals in the next one to two weeks,” Kip Louttit, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California, said. The Los Angeles-Long Beach complex, which handles about half of all US imports from Asia, is so far due to experience 59 blanked, or canceled, sailings between May 1 and June 30, according to both ports. That number, which could rise, means that about 65,000 to 71,000 TEUs of imports won’t be landing in Southern California each week for the next few weeks. A spokesperson for the Port of Los Angeles said 17 blank sailings are scheduled for May and 12 for June. Long Beach is scheduled to have 13 blanked sailings in May and 17 in June, according to Noel Hacegaba, the port’s chief operating officer. The impact of the blanked sailings will vary from terminal to terminal depending on the lines that call there and the origin of the imports, said Alan McCorkle, president and CEO of Yusen Terminals in Los Angeles. “We’re all experiencing it to some degree,” he said. “We expect a couple of blanks in May.” When cargo volumes drop precipitously, terminal operators generally reduce their gate hours, McCorkle said. “We’ll close two or three gates a week to right-size our operation.” <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="1c1d9578-c129-4d4e-a136-e220473bd136"></dynamic-object></div>While dockworkers won’t face lower pay or job cuts given their contract protections, the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) nonetheless savaged the Trump administration this week for implementing the tariffs and for the trade dispute they ignited with China. “Tariffs are taxes. These and other reckless, shortsighted policies have begun to devastate American workers, harm critical sectors of the economy, and line the pockets of the ultra-wealthy at the expense of hardworking families,” the union said in a statement. “Hundreds of thousands of jobs are dependent on or connected to global trade,” the ILWU added. “Constricted trade between the world’s two largest economies could lead to devastating job losses for workers employed in the global supply chain.” <h3>Imports to drop in Oakland and NWSA </h3>Further up the West Coast, the Port of Oakland likewise anticipates a drop in vessel calls and import volumes over the next two months. “In recent weeks, vessel service reductions have increased,” a port spokesperson said. “Between April and June, 39 blank sailings have been announced across multiple shipping alliances calling Oakland. These reductions tighten available vessel capacity for both imports and exports.” A spokesperson for the Northwest Seaport Alliance (NWSA) of Seattle and Tacoma said carriers are scheduled to blank 17 sailings to the port complex in May and June, five more than in the same period last year. And although import volumes through the NWSA have soared 22.4% year over year through March, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, that appears to be changing. “We are seeing some vessels coming in with less cargo than anticipated, and we are hearing from exporters and importers directly on canceled orders, especially with China,” the spokesperson said. “These impacts are real and will likely be reflected in our data in the coming months.” China accounts for 51% of NWSA imports and 40% of the complex’s total trade, the spokesperson noted. <h3>Vancouver unaffected </h3>The Port of Vancouver does not anticipate a drop in import volumes due to the US tariffs on imports from China, said Rosanna Lau, manager of trade development at the Vancouver-Fraser Port Authority. “Our forecasts for the coming weeks indicate that container volumes at the Port of Vancouver will remain consistent with seasonal norms,” Lau said. “It is worth noting that the overwhelming majority of container traffic moving through the port is Canadian trade and not directly affected by US tariffs.”Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Correction: A previous version of this story attributed blank sailings for the Northwest Seaport Alliance to the Port of Prince Rupert, British Columbia. Ports and marine terminals along the US West Coast are bracing for what could be a massive drop in imports moving across their docks in the coming weeks as the tangible impacts of blank sailings and half-empty container ships arriving from China become apparent. The effects of the US trade war with Beijing will be most visible in Southern California, where stakeholders at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach — the US’ busiest gateway — expect a huge cut in imports in May, with a 35% decline in Los Angeles and 38% in Long Beach compared with their normal monthly volumes. “Leading indicators forecast a significant dip in container ship arrivals in the next one to two weeks,” Kip Louttit, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California, said. The Los Angeles-Long Beach complex, which handles about half of all US imports from Asia, is so far due to experience 59 blanked, or canceled, sailings between May 1 and June 30, according to both ports. That number, which could rise, means that about 65,000 to 71,000 TEUs of imports won’t be landing in Southern California each week for the next few weeks. A spokesperson for the Port of Los Angeles said 17 blank sailings are scheduled for May and 12 for June. Long Beach is scheduled to have 13 blanked sailings in May and 17 in June, according to Noel Hacegaba, the port’s chief operating officer. The impact of the blanked sailings will vary from terminal to terminal depending on the lines that call there and the origin of the imports, said Alan McCorkle, president and CEO of Yusen Terminals in Los Angeles. “We’re all experiencing it to some degree,” he said. “We expect a couple of blanks in May.” When cargo volumes drop precipitously, terminal operators generally reduce their gate hours, McCorkle said. “We’ll close two or three gates a week to right-size our operation.” While dockworkers won’t face lower pay or job cuts given their contract protections, the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) nonetheless savaged the Trump administration this week for implementing the tariffs and for the trade dispute they ignited with China. “Tariffs are taxes. These and other reckless, shortsighted policies have begun to devastate American workers, harm critical sectors of the economy, and line the pockets of the ultra-wealthy at the expense of hardworking families,” the union said in a statement. “Hundreds of thousands of jobs are dependent on or connected to global trade,” the ILWU added. “Constricted trade between the world’s two largest economies could lead to devastating job losses for workers employed in the global supply chain.” Imports to drop in Oakland and NWSA Further up the West Coast, the Port of Oakland likewise anticipates a drop in vessel calls and import volumes over the next two months. “In recent weeks, vessel service reductions have increased,” a port spokesperson said. “Between April and June, 39 blank sailings have been announced across multiple shipping alliances calling Oakland. These reductions tighten available vessel capacity for both imports and exports.” A spokesperson for the Northwest Seaport Alliance (NWSA) of Seattle and Tacoma said carriers are scheduled to blank 17 sailings to the port complex in May and June, five more than in the same period last year. And although import volumes through the NWSA have soared 22.4% year over year through March, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, that appears to be changing. “We are seeing some vessels coming in with less cargo than anticipated, and we are hearing from exporters and importers directly on canceled orders, especially with China,” the spokesperson said. “These impacts are real and will likely be reflected in our data in the coming months.” China accounts for 51% of NWSA imports and 40% of the complex’s total trade, the spokesperson noted. Vancouver unaffected The Port of Vancouver does not anticipate a drop in import volumes due to the US tariffs on imports from China, said Rosanna Lau, manager of trade development at the Vancouver-Fraser Port Authority. “Our forecasts for the coming weeks indicate that container volumes at the Port of Vancouver will remain consistent with seasonal norms,” Lau said. “It is worth noting that the overwhelming majority of container traffic moving through the port is Canadian trade and not directly affected by US tariffs.” Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .

Port News

Marine terminals

Uneasy West Coast ports watch as first signs of trade dispute with China emerge

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">A range of factors including full yards, labor unrest and carrier network changes are making it difficult for the hubs to clear container bottlenecks.</div>

A range of factors including full yards, labor unrest and carrier network changes are making it difficult for the hubs to clear container bottlenecks.

<div class="phx-topic">North Europe’s largest port gateways are continuing to struggle with persistent congestion that has delayed vessels and hampered container operations at the hubs for months. Full container yards, labor unrest, staff shortages and changing carrier alliance networks are among the challenges being piled on top of a steady inbound volume from Asia. “This is systemic by nature and will resurface on a regular basis,” Scan Global Logistics said in a market update this week. The Denmark-based forwarder also noted that the launch of the Gemini Cooperation between Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk “complicates efforts to sustain operational efficiency while the new rotations are phased in.” Kuehne + Nagel’s SeaExplorer visibility platform warned that “heavily disrupted operations” were being experienced at Antwerp, Rotterdam, Hamburg and London Gateway. A national strike in Belgium on April 29, the fourth strike in the country within the past few months, shut down the Port of Antwerp for the day as workers from the private and public sectors protested recent budget cuts made by the federal government. There were 19 vessels waiting to depart from Antwerp on Thursday and 20 waiting to enter the port. SeaExplorer noted that already congested yards there have seen a seven-day average vessel waiting time of about 2.19 days; Scan Global put the seven-day waiting time in Antwerp as high as seven days. <h3>Low-water advisory hampers inland shipping </h3>Labor shortages at Rotterdam because of national holidays are impacting container operations at the port, according to SeaExplorer, with vessels waiting for more than a day to berth. Intermodal operator Contargo told customers in an advisory Wednesday that average waiting times for the handling of barges were 71 hours in Rotterdam and 101 hours in Antwerp. A low-water advisory is also in place on the Rhine River, limiting the volume that can be carried by barges on Europe’s largest inland waterway connecting the industrial heartland of southern Germany to Rotterdam and Antwerp. Container delivery restrictions were imposed by Hamburg’s main terminal operator HHLA in April to tackle yard congestion. Vessel waiting times at Hamburg are currently up to five days, according to Scan Global. On top of ships being delayed in Hamburg, rail shipments are taking up to 10 hours to process and disrupting all terminals in the port. Intermodal logistics operator Metrans said trains to the German ports of Bremerhaven and Wilhelmshaven were experiencing long delays due to unplanned line closures around Hannover following a landslide in the area. Detour routes were up to 200 kilometers long and battling with overcapacity that was stopping trains and blocking traffic to and from Rotterdam and the inland rail hub of Duisburg. The disrupted train circulation was also having a major impact on service to and from Hamburg. In France, the Port of Le Havre is struggling to catch up with container backlogs following several strikes held in April, while the UK ports of Felixstowe and Southampton are also experiencing lengthy vessel delays. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

North Europe’s largest port gateways are continuing to struggle with persistent congestion that has delayed vessels and hampered container operations at the hubs for months. Full container yards, labor unrest, staff shortages and changing carrier alliance networks are among the challenges being piled on top of a steady inbound volume from Asia. “This is systemic by nature and will resurface on a regular basis,” Scan Global Logistics said in a market update this week. The Denmark-based forwarder also noted that the launch of the Gemini Cooperation between Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk “complicates efforts to sustain operational efficiency while the new rotations are phased in.” Kuehne + Nagel’s SeaExplorer visibility platform warned that “heavily disrupted operations” were being experienced at Antwerp, Rotterdam, Hamburg and London Gateway. A national strike in Belgium on April 29, the fourth strike in the country within the past few months, shut down the Port of Antwerp for the day as workers from the private and public sectors protested recent budget cuts made by the federal government. There were 19 vessels waiting to depart from Antwerp on Thursday and 20 waiting to enter the port. SeaExplorer noted that already congested yards there have seen a seven-day average vessel waiting time of about 2.19 days; Scan Global put the seven-day waiting time in Antwerp as high as seven days. Low-water advisory hampers inland shipping Labor shortages at Rotterdam because of national holidays are impacting container operations at the port, according to SeaExplorer, with vessels waiting for more than a day to berth. Intermodal operator Contargo told customers in an advisory Wednesday that average waiting times for the handling of barges were 71 hours in Rotterdam and 101 hours in Antwerp. A low-water advisory is also in place on the Rhine River, limiting the volume that can be carried by barges on Europe’s largest inland waterway connecting the industrial heartland of southern Germany to Rotterdam and Antwerp. Container delivery restrictions were imposed by Hamburg’s main terminal operator HHLA in April to tackle yard congestion. Vessel waiting times at Hamburg are currently up to five days, according to Scan Global. On top of ships being delayed in Hamburg, rail shipments are taking up to 10 hours to process and disrupting all terminals in the port. Intermodal logistics operator Metrans said trains to the German ports of Bremerhaven and Wilhelmshaven were experiencing long delays due to unplanned line closures around Hannover following a landslide in the area. Detour routes were up to 200 kilometers long and battling with overcapacity that was stopping trains and blocking traffic to and from Rotterdam and the inland rail hub of Duisburg. The disrupted train circulation was also having a major impact on service to and from Hamburg. In France, the Port of Le Havre is struggling to catch up with container backlogs following several strikes held in April, while the UK ports of Felixstowe and Southampton are also experiencing lengthy vessel delays. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Trans-Atlantic

International ports

No end to the congestion choking gateway ports in North Europe

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">US ports and support infrastructure such as warehouses and rail connections aren’t better equipped to handle import surges than they were during the pandemic when record volumes drove congestion to historic highs, carrier executives said this week.</div>

US ports and support infrastructure such as warehouses and rail connections aren’t better equipped to handle import surges than they were during the pandemic when record volumes drove congestion to historic highs, carrier executives said this week.

<div class="phx-topic">Container line executives warn that the inevitable rebound in Asian imports that will come at some point after the expected plunge in volumes linked to US tariffs may overwhelm major US ports because the supporting systems aren’t significantly better prepared than they were during the pandemic. The timing and scale of the rebound isn’t yet known. But import volumes from Asia are expected to recover eventually either because tariffs are eased or cargo owners ultimately decide there is no relief coming and eat the higher costs due to a need to replenish inventories. “Regardless of whether the demand will go up two times or come back to a level of about eight weeks ago, the system is not fundamentally better than it was five years ago,” Charles van der Steene, president of Maersk North America, said at the Georgia International Trade Conference this week. “Right now ... volumes are down [30%-40%] and if that goes up, the sheer surge will test the system and disruption cannot be avoided.” Similar to during the pandemic, the sharpest limits to capacity during an import surge will be less at the marine terminals and more outside the truck gates. There, importers and consignees could face limited availability of warehousing and chassis, while a rush of international intermodal could sap rail car supply, carrier executives told the conference. “If our terminals start working at 70%, 80%, 90% capacity and beyond on a regular basis for weeks, the system will crumble,” said Fabio Santucci, president of US operations for Mediterranean Shipping Co. Santucci added that if import dwell times at marine terminals exceed 10 days, ports can’t dig out of backlogs. <h3>‘Uncertainty’ the key word </h3>Stuart Sandlin, Hapag-Lloyd’s North America president, fears a rise in abandoned containers as some US exporters walk away from Chinese contracts due to 125% retaliatory Chinese tariffs on low-value US commodities. Even more alarming would be if US importers begin to abandon higher-value cargo, something he said would signal a potential wave of bankruptcies. Some smaller US importers are already struggling with backing a larger surety bond thanks to higher US tariff costs. <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/trans-pacific-capacity-cuts-accelerating-amid-sharp-reduction-in-chinese-cargo-5992769">Estimates of the plunge in China bookings from carriers and forwarders range from 30% to up to 50%</a>. The resumption of shipping last week from China by Walmart, Target and other big box retailers after they paused US shipments earlier in the month suggests a rebound is already building, executives at two major carriers told the Journal of Commerce. “I think the key word is ‘uncertainty,’” Santucci told the conference. “Sixty to 70% of customers are reevaluating shipment out of China. They’re either pausing [or] they’ve asked for shipments to be brought back to China.” He said customers are requesting changes to import and inland delivery destinations while containers “are on the water,” adding there’s been a spike in requests to hold shipments at transshipment ports before being loaded onto US-bound vessels. Contact Mark Szakonyi at <a href="mailto:mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com">mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Container line executives warn that the inevitable rebound in Asian imports that will come at some point after the expected plunge in volumes linked to US tariffs may overwhelm major US ports because the supporting systems aren’t significantly better prepared than they were during the pandemic. The timing and scale of the rebound isn’t yet known. But import volumes from Asia are expected to recover eventually either because tariffs are eased or cargo owners ultimately decide there is no relief coming and eat the higher costs due to a need to replenish inventories. “Regardless of whether the demand will go up two times or come back to a level of about eight weeks ago, the system is not fundamentally better than it was five years ago,” Charles van der Steene, president of Maersk North America, said at the Georgia International Trade Conference this week. “Right now ... volumes are down [30%-40%] and if that goes up, the sheer surge will test the system and disruption cannot be avoided.” Similar to during the pandemic, the sharpest limits to capacity during an import surge will be less at the marine terminals and more outside the truck gates. There, importers and consignees could face limited availability of warehousing and chassis, while a rush of international intermodal could sap rail car supply, carrier executives told the conference. “If our terminals start working at 70%, 80%, 90% capacity and beyond on a regular basis for weeks, the system will crumble,” said Fabio Santucci, president of US operations for Mediterranean Shipping Co. Santucci added that if import dwell times at marine terminals exceed 10 days, ports can’t dig out of backlogs. ‘Uncertainty’ the key word Stuart Sandlin, Hapag-Lloyd’s North America president, fears a rise in abandoned containers as some US exporters walk away from Chinese contracts due to 125% retaliatory Chinese tariffs on low-value US commodities. Even more alarming would be if US importers begin to abandon higher-value cargo, something he said would signal a potential wave of bankruptcies. Some smaller US importers are already struggling with backing a larger surety bond thanks to higher US tariff costs. Estimates of the plunge in China bookings from carriers and forwarders range from 30% to up to 50% . The resumption of shipping last week from China by Walmart, Target and other big box retailers after they paused US shipments earlier in the month suggests a rebound is already building, executives at two major carriers told the Journal of Commerce. “I think the key word is ‘uncertainty,’” Santucci told the conference. “Sixty to 70% of customers are reevaluating shipment out of China. They’re either pausing [or] they’ve asked for shipments to be brought back to China.” He said customers are requesting changes to import and inland delivery destinations while containers “are on the water,” adding there’s been a spike in requests to hold shipments at transshipment ports before being loaded onto US-bound vessels. Contact Mark Szakonyi at mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com .

Container lines warn of congestion threat when Asia imports rebound

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The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

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Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Insufficient volumes, including on the lane between the Port of Virginia and Memphis, have forced the railroad to reallocate resources to areas where it believes container business will grow in the future.</div>

Insufficient volumes, including on the lane between the Port of Virginia and Memphis, have forced the railroad to reallocate resources to areas where it believes container business will grow in the future.

<div class="phx-topic">Norfolk Southern Railway (NS) will eliminate international intermodal service on more than 20 routes along the US East Coast, including trains between the Port of Virginia and the key inland hub of Memphis, due to insufficient container volumes. The service changes will take effect May 31, according to a notice NS sent to customers that was obtained by the Journal of Commerce. The railroad did not make a formal public announcement but confirmed the details. “By reallocating those resources, we’re reinforcing our broader network to better serve our customers and to ensure we are investing in growth where it’s most impactful,” Norfolk Southern said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce. The railroad said the services could be restored if a business case arises. Among the affected lanes are two notable routes: the Port of Virginia to Memphis and Chicago to Jacksonville. Norfolk Southern launched trains from Virginia to Memphis with <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/new-ns-norfolk-memphis-service-aims-to-grab-east-coast-cargo-shift-5202715">much fanfare in March 2023</a>, but the service never caught on among ocean carriers or shippers who had other options via the ports of Charleston and Savannah. “While we initially saw some interest from the international community for Port of Virginia-Memphis service, the volume ultimately was not strong enough to support the service sustainably over the long term,” NS said. “Our commitment to supporting international trade through the Port of Virginia remains strong, and we continue to focus on providing reliable, high-quality service for the lanes where customers need it most.” The Virginia Port Authority did not respond to requests for comment. <h3>Onward business to Puerto Rico affected </h3>NS will also discontinue service between Chicago and Jacksonville, which will impact onward business to Puerto Rico. Each year, Norfolk Southern and CSX Transportation move an estimated 16,000 to 22,000 ocean containers between Chicago and Jacksonville, according to a Journal of Commerce analysis of data from the US Surface Transportation Board. While the lane was heavily utilized southbound into Florida, northbound demand remained limited. Jacksonville serves as the launching point for Jones Act services to Puerto Rico operated by Crowley Maritime, Tote Maritime and Trailer Bridge. “Ultimately, the low density of international volumes challenged our ability to provide the consistent and reliable service product that our customers expect,” NS said in its statement on the Chicago-Jacksonville service. “We have been in close communication with our ocean carrier partners to fully understand their needs and priorities. We’ve worked to ensure they have access to alternative service options that continue to support critical trade flows, including the important Puerto Rico market.” While Norfolk Southern will discontinue international trains, CSX will remain an option for shippers moving ocean boxes between Chicago and Jacksonville. NS will still operate domestic intermodal trains between the two cities for 53-foot containers or ocean boxes with local drayage arrangements from its Jacksonville terminal. The other lanes affected by the Norfolk Southern service changes handled minimal international container traffic. For example, international trains will no longer run between Atlanta and Chicago — a high-volume domestic intermodal route that is served by ports in Baltimore, New York-New Jersey and Virginia for ocean freight. NS will also terminate international service between the Port of Charleston and Huntsville, Alabama, although service will continue from Savannah. The railroad also plans to convert the Norfolk Portlock Yard exclusively for domestic intermodal operations, shifting a small amount of remaining international cargo back to on-dock facilities within the Port of Virginia. Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Norfolk Southern Railway (NS) will eliminate international intermodal service on more than 20 routes along the US East Coast, including trains between the Port of Virginia and the key inland hub of Memphis, due to insufficient container volumes. The service changes will take effect May 31, according to a notice NS sent to customers that was obtained by the Journal of Commerce. The railroad did not make a formal public announcement but confirmed the details. “By reallocating those resources, we’re reinforcing our broader network to better serve our customers and to ensure we are investing in growth where it’s most impactful,” Norfolk Southern said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce. The railroad said the services could be restored if a business case arises. Among the affected lanes are two notable routes: the Port of Virginia to Memphis and Chicago to Jacksonville. Norfolk Southern launched trains from Virginia to Memphis with much fanfare in March 2023 , but the service never caught on among ocean carriers or shippers who had other options via the ports of Charleston and Savannah. “While we initially saw some interest from the international community for Port of Virginia-Memphis service, the volume ultimately was not strong enough to support the service sustainably over the long term,” NS said. “Our commitment to supporting international trade through the Port of Virginia remains strong, and we continue to focus on providing reliable, high-quality service for the lanes where customers need it most.” The Virginia Port Authority did not respond to requests for comment. Onward business to Puerto Rico affected NS will also discontinue service between Chicago and Jacksonville, which will impact onward business to Puerto Rico. Each year, Norfolk Southern and CSX Transportation move an estimated 16,000 to 22,000 ocean containers between Chicago and Jacksonville, according to a Journal of Commerce analysis of data from the US Surface Transportation Board. While the lane was heavily utilized southbound into Florida, northbound demand remained limited. Jacksonville serves as the launching point for Jones Act services to Puerto Rico operated by Crowley Maritime, Tote Maritime and Trailer Bridge. “Ultimately, the low density of international volumes challenged our ability to provide the consistent and reliable service product that our customers expect,” NS said in its statement on the Chicago-Jacksonville service. “We have been in close communication with our ocean carrier partners to fully understand their needs and priorities. We’ve worked to ensure they have access to alternative service options that continue to support critical trade flows, including the important Puerto Rico market.” While Norfolk Southern will discontinue international trains, CSX will remain an option for shippers moving ocean boxes between Chicago and Jacksonville. NS will still operate domestic intermodal trains between the two cities for 53-foot containers or ocean boxes with local drayage arrangements from its Jacksonville terminal. The other lanes affected by the Norfolk Southern service changes handled minimal international container traffic. For example, international trains will no longer run between Atlanta and Chicago — a high-volume domestic intermodal route that is served by ports in Baltimore, New York-New Jersey and Virginia for ocean freight. NS will also terminate international service between the Port of Charleston and Huntsville, Alabama, although service will continue from Savannah. The railroad also plans to convert the Norfolk Portlock Yard exclusively for domestic intermodal operations, shifting a small amount of remaining international cargo back to on-dock facilities within the Port of Virginia. Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Intermodal providers

Norfolk Southern to drop international intermodal service on many USEC lanes

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">With far fewer US-bound goods leaving Chinese docks, carriers have accelerated the raft of blank sailings and service suspensions that began earlier this month, sources tell the Journal of Commerce. </div>

With far fewer US-bound goods leaving Chinese docks, carriers have accelerated the raft of blank sailings and service suspensions that began earlier this month, sources tell the Journal of Commerce.

<div class="phx-topic">Ocean carriers are continuing to remove vessel capacity from the trans-Pacific at a significant clip as the trade dispute between the US and China ignited by the Trump administration’s tariffs shows no sign of ending anytime soon. With far fewer US-bound goods leaving Chinese docks, carriers have accelerated the raft of blank sailings and service suspensions that began earlier this month, sources tell the Journal of Commerce. Bookings for China to the US have dropped nearly 54% during the week of April 21–28 versus the comparable week in March, according to maritime visibility provider Vizion and data and analytics company Dun &amp; Bradstreet. Carriers Zim Integrated Shipping Services, Mediterranean Shipping Co., and Premier Alliance members HMM, Ocean Network Express (ONE) and Yang Ming have all announced capacity reductions on the trade as <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/tariff-related-disruption-spreading-as-us-shippers-pause-plans-5989017">volumes plummet</a>. “Carriers have gotten much better at managing capacity,” said Sanjay Tejwani, CEO of consulting firm 365 Logistics. “There has been a <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/fallout-from-us-china-trade-war-to-depress-trans-pacific-volumes-drewry-5990686">massive volume drop</a> [from China], but despite that, rates are at a healthy level. The carriers now know how to manage that capacity to avoid a collapse like we saw during [and before the COVID-19 pandemic.]” On the service side, the capacity cuts that were in full force in April are expected at minimum to be maintained into May, according to sources. Zim and MSC removed about 100,000 TEUs from the trans-Pacific trade lane in April, with Zim pulling out about 35,000 TEUs in capacity by suspending its ZX2 service, which connects Asia to the West Coast of North America. According to maritime intelligence provider eeSea, MSC’s Orient service was also suspended in April — effectively removing about 77,000 TEUs from the trade. Meanwhile, the PS5 service from the Premier Alliance — which had been positioned for a May launch — has been postponed indefinitely. “In my conversations with carriers, they’re very big on pulling capacity out of the China lane and into other Southeast Asian lanes,” said a US-based source with a non-vessel-operating common carrier (NVO). <h3>Southeast Asia bookings on the rise </h3>With US importers looking for a cheaper alternative to China, bookings for cargo from Southeast Asia have increased, according to Vizion. Bookings climbed more than 20% during the week of April 21 compared with two weeks earlier. Blanked sailings are also <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/trans-pacific-blank-sailings-set-to-rise-after-china-bookings-drop-sharply-5984166">gaining momentum</a>. Data from eeSea shows nearly 14% of trans-Pacific capacity was blanked during April, with 18% of the lane’s capacity poised to be blanked in May. Furthermore, port calls on the greater trans-Pacific trade have dropped significantly. Additional eeSea data shows the number of port calls made on the trade has been falling steadily since the second week of April, with more than 25% of calls eliminated during the two weeks between April 7–21. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="5538048b-e61f-4422-98ed-d121799010bb"></dynamic-object></div>Ocean carriers are also reducing service frequency to manage capacity. Ocean Alliance member Cosco Shipping will start offering its Bohai service into the Port of Long Beach bi-weekly instead of weekly at least through mid-June. Other Ocean Alliance services, such as Evergreen Marine’s HTW express service from Southeastern China, are continuing weekly calls, as the alliance also calls in Malaysia, Vietnam and Taiwan. Cosco is likewise maintaining weekly service on its Yangtse service from South China under the Ocean Alliance because it includes two calls in Vietnam. But with the capacity removals, there are concerns about long-term impacts to schedule reliability if volumes resume too quickly. “As they pull [capacity] out, if the tariffs go away, it’s going to be hard to get [services] back up and running,” said the NVO source. Contact Laura Robb at <a href="mailto:Laura.Robb@spglobal.com">laura.robb@spglobal.com</a>.  </div>

Ocean carriers are continuing to remove vessel capacity from the trans-Pacific at a significant clip as the trade dispute between the US and China ignited by the Trump administration’s tariffs shows no sign of ending anytime soon. With far fewer US-bound goods leaving Chinese docks, carriers have accelerated the raft of blank sailings and service suspensions that began earlier this month, sources tell the Journal of Commerce. Bookings for China to the US have dropped nearly 54% during the week of April 21–28 versus the comparable week in March, according to maritime visibility provider Vizion and data and analytics company Dun & Bradstreet. Carriers Zim Integrated Shipping Services, Mediterranean Shipping Co., and Premier Alliance members HMM, Ocean Network Express (ONE) and Yang Ming have all announced capacity reductions on the trade as volumes plummet . “Carriers have gotten much better at managing capacity,” said Sanjay Tejwani, CEO of consulting firm 365 Logistics. “There has been a massive volume drop [from China], but despite that, rates are at a healthy level. The carriers now know how to manage that capacity to avoid a collapse like we saw during [and before the COVID-19 pandemic.]” On the service side, the capacity cuts that were in full force in April are expected at minimum to be maintained into May, according to sources. Zim and MSC removed about 100,000 TEUs from the trans-Pacific trade lane in April, with Zim pulling out about 35,000 TEUs in capacity by suspending its ZX2 service, which connects Asia to the West Coast of North America. According to maritime intelligence provider eeSea, MSC’s Orient service was also suspended in April — effectively removing about 77,000 TEUs from the trade. Meanwhile, the PS5 service from the Premier Alliance — which had been positioned for a May launch — has been postponed indefinitely. “In my conversations with carriers, they’re very big on pulling capacity out of the China lane and into other Southeast Asian lanes,” said a US-based source with a non-vessel-operating common carrier (NVO). Southeast Asia bookings on the rise With US importers looking for a cheaper alternative to China, bookings for cargo from Southeast Asia have increased, according to Vizion. Bookings climbed more than 20% during the week of April 21 compared with two weeks earlier. Blanked sailings are also gaining momentum . Data from eeSea shows nearly 14% of trans-Pacific capacity was blanked during April, with 18% of the lane’s capacity poised to be blanked in May. Furthermore, port calls on the greater trans-Pacific trade have dropped significantly. Additional eeSea data shows the number of port calls made on the trade has been falling steadily since the second week of April, with more than 25% of calls eliminated during the two weeks between April 7–21. Ocean carriers are also reducing service frequency to manage capacity. Ocean Alliance member Cosco Shipping will start offering its Bohai service into the Port of Long Beach bi-weekly instead of weekly at least through mid-June. Other Ocean Alliance services, such as Evergreen Marine’s HTW express service from Southeastern China, are continuing weekly calls, as the alliance also calls in Malaysia, Vietnam and Taiwan. Cosco is likewise maintaining weekly service on its Yangtse service from South China under the Ocean Alliance because it includes two calls in Vietnam. But with the capacity removals, there are concerns about long-term impacts to schedule reliability if volumes resume too quickly. “As they pull [capacity] out, if the tariffs go away, it’s going to be hard to get [services] back up and running,” said the NVO source. Contact Laura Robb at laura.robb@spglobal.com . 

Trans-Pacific capacity cuts accelerating amid sharp reduction in Chinese cargo

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">National drayage providers experiencing a sharp decline in orders as US tariffs come into effect now warn that a second-half rebound could be just as disruptive. </div>

National drayage providers experiencing a sharp decline in orders as US tariffs come into effect now warn that a second-half rebound could be just as disruptive.

<div class="phx-topic">Drayage providers who handled the early 2025 surge of US-bound cargo booked ahead of US tariffs are now bracing for a significant drop in business that will begin in May and potentially last into the third quarter. They’re also girding for a disruptive import rebound once trade disputes abate. “What happens in the third quarter is going to be the big story,” said Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain for ITS Logistics, a Reno, Nevada-based third-party logistics provider offering over-the-road truckload and drayage services. Once US trade disputes with China and other trading partners are resolved, “there will be a wave of freight that will stress the system,” Brashier said. “We’re pretty much looking at a similar event as we saw with COVID in 2020. There will be pent-up demand.” Indeed, container shipping lines are already warning that a rebound in Asian imports following the expected plunge linked to the US-China trade dispute may <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/container-lines-warn-of-congestion-threat-when-asia-imports-rebound-5993793">overwhelm major US ports</a>. The biggest danger, they say, could be a lack of capacity outside port gates to handle a rapid acceleration in freight. That concern starts at drayage. “We’re warning customers to be very strategic with their dray partners,” said Ken Kellaway, CEO of RoadOne IntermodaLogistics, a nationwide drayage provider with headquarters near Boston. “If we lose drivers over the next 30 to 45 days, it will take weeks to get them back,” Kellaway said. “Shippers will be in trouble if we can’t preserve the capacity we have in the system today.” He said a freight “whiplash” could hit US ports as early as mid-June. <h3>Potential for a ‘reset’ </h3>US drayage capacity appears to be <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/shrinking-us-drayage-capacity-to-continue-outstripping-demand-5971095">slowly shrinking from a 2022 high</a>, with some of those losses attributed to the migration of owner-operators to the security of larger carriers. Still, excess drayage capacity persists, putting pressure on already-low rates. However, the Trump administration’s efforts to reshape global trade could reset the drayage market, especially if trade negotiations drag on without a resolution or a lowering of tariff rates that would encourage beneficial cargo owners (BCOs) to boost US imports. “The market’s been soft anyway, so a lot of small drayage companies are struggling with cash flow, taking any freight to keep going,” said Joel Henry, CEO of IMC Logistics, a nationwide drayage provider with headquarters near Memphis. “Now without the volume, they’ll not even have that cash flow,” Henry said. That could push small carriers that have stayed in business despite low rates the past two years out of the market, tightening capacity immediately when a rebound hits US ports. “I think there’s going to be a shakeout in capacity in the next month,” said Brian Kempisty, co-founder of drayage broker Port X Logistics, based in Buffalo, New York. “It could be three months, but when freight comes back, it will come back with a vengeance.” <h3>Drayage on the edge </h3>With the trajectory of trade disputes with China and other countries uncertain, many shippers in April canceled or postponed purchase orders from China. That big pause will lead to a real plunge in drayage demand at US ports and inland rail ramps. The US imposed combined tariffs of 145% on China on April 2, and China in turn imposed a 125% tariff on many US goods, including agricultural products. Another tranche of reciprocal tariffs on trading partners around the globe was paused for 90 days until July 9. And importers are also dealing with a 10% tariff on goods from almost all US trading partners, as well as 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum and automotive products and 25% tariffs on <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/tariff-uncertainty-pushing-up-transportation-costs-at-us-mexico-border-5984698">other goods from Mexico and Canada</a> that took effect in March. Bookings for containers headed from China to the US <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/trans-pacific-capacity-cuts-accelerating-amid-sharp-reduction-in-chinese-cargo-5992769">dropped nearly 54%</a> during the week of April 21–28 versus the comparable week in March, according to maritime visibility provider Vizion and data and analytics company Dun &amp; Bradstreet. “One of our large customers who imports through Savannah shared with us that they canceled all their purchase orders from China for the next 30 days,” said Kent Williams, executive vice president of sales and marketing for Cookeville, Tennessee-based Averitt. The regional trucking and drayage provider, which drays about 45,000 containers a year in the Southeast, saw its drayage business jump 10% to 12% year over year in the first quarter as customers rushed goods to the US ahead of the tariffs. In the past month, as the tariffs on China took effect, Averitt’s drayage volumes have dropped 5% year over year. “There’s a real fear it could get worse,” Williams said. “All the canceled bookings and blanked sailings are about to hit the supply chain in a big way.” The effects of the trade war on drayage are just becoming apparent, said Port X’s Kempisty. “Freight that sailed April 1,” just before the US tariffs on China took effect, “is arriving in the US now,” he said. But that will be the last frontloaded freight from China. “In drayage, we’re at the front end of this,” said Kempisty. The initial impact will be on the West Coast, but it won’t be long before inland markets begin to see volumes drop. “Inland drayage markets in Chicago and Kansas City are going to see a fairly substantial decline in the next couple of weeks,” he said. IMC Logistics, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/kn-acquires-majority-stake-in-big-us-drayage-provider-5817584">purchased by global forwarder</a> Kuehne + Nagel last November, saw its drayage volume drop 14.2% in the last seven days as of Tuesday, and 8.1% in the last 30 days. “We’re seeing double-digit decreases in the orders we’re tracing,” Henry said. Added RoadOne’s Kellaway: “We haven’t seen the business fall off yet, but we know it’s coming.” Over the next few weeks, RoadOne anticipates its drayage volumes will drop 30% on the West Coast, 20% in the Midwest and 15% on the East Coast. “We could see a three- to four-week lull in volumes, so we’re moving equipment around,” he said. <h3>How long a decline? </h3>Other drayage providers offered similar forecasts of shipment decline, but no one has a clear idea of how long it will last. Guesses — it’s hard to call them estimates — have ranged from three weeks to three months or longer, in worst-case scenarios. The monthly Global Port Tracker produced by the National Retail Foundation (NRF) and Hackett Associates in April predicted US retail imports will be down 20% year over year in the second half of 2025, with a 20.2% decline in May and a 26.6% drop in June. “Even if there’s a [US-China] agreement today, there will still be this period where there will be less work coming inbound to the ports, with less drays, less transload, less truckload and less-than-truckload [LTL],” said Williams. “All this is already in motion.” The longer the “lull” or “pause” in Asian imports lasts, the bigger the long-term impact on drayage. And the bigger the rebound may be when trade disputes are settled. “If we get agreements before July, we could have an aggressive second half of the year,” Keith Prather, managing partner at Armada Capital Intelligence, said during an SMC3 webinar Tuesday on tariffs, the economy and the LTL sector. A big enough freight snap could boost not only drayage but other transportation modes out of what’s now a four-year freight downturn. “I look forward to dealing with the congestion,” said Henry. “That’s a much better challenge than this decline, because our driver base will be stable.” Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="Mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>.Associate editor Laura Robb contributed to this story. </div>

Drayage providers who handled the early 2025 surge of US-bound cargo booked ahead of US tariffs are now bracing for a significant drop in business that will begin in May and potentially last into the third quarter. They’re also girding for a disruptive import rebound once trade disputes abate. “What happens in the third quarter is going to be the big story,” said Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain for ITS Logistics, a Reno, Nevada-based third-party logistics provider offering over-the-road truckload and drayage services. Once US trade disputes with China and other trading partners are resolved, “there will be a wave of freight that will stress the system,” Brashier said. “We’re pretty much looking at a similar event as we saw with COVID in 2020. There will be pent-up demand.” Indeed, container shipping lines are already warning that a rebound in Asian imports following the expected plunge linked to the US-China trade dispute may overwhelm major US ports . The biggest danger, they say, could be a lack of capacity outside port gates to handle a rapid acceleration in freight. That concern starts at drayage. “We’re warning customers to be very strategic with their dray partners,” said Ken Kellaway, CEO of RoadOne IntermodaLogistics, a nationwide drayage provider with headquarters near Boston. “If we lose drivers over the next 30 to 45 days, it will take weeks to get them back,” Kellaway said. “Shippers will be in trouble if we can’t preserve the capacity we have in the system today.” He said a freight “whiplash” could hit US ports as early as mid-June. Potential for a ‘reset’ US drayage capacity appears to be slowly shrinking from a 2022 high , with some of those losses attributed to the migration of owner-operators to the security of larger carriers. Still, excess drayage capacity persists, putting pressure on already-low rates. However, the Trump administration’s efforts to reshape global trade could reset the drayage market, especially if trade negotiations drag on without a resolution or a lowering of tariff rates that would encourage beneficial cargo owners (BCOs) to boost US imports. “The market’s been soft anyway, so a lot of small drayage companies are struggling with cash flow, taking any freight to keep going,” said Joel Henry, CEO of IMC Logistics, a nationwide drayage provider with headquarters near Memphis. “Now without the volume, they’ll not even have that cash flow,” Henry said. That could push small carriers that have stayed in business despite low rates the past two years out of the market, tightening capacity immediately when a rebound hits US ports. “I think there’s going to be a shakeout in capacity in the next month,” said Brian Kempisty, co-founder of drayage broker Port X Logistics, based in Buffalo, New York. “It could be three months, but when freight comes back, it will come back with a vengeance.” Drayage on the edge With the trajectory of trade disputes with China and other countries uncertain, many shippers in April canceled or postponed purchase orders from China. That big pause will lead to a real plunge in drayage demand at US ports and inland rail ramps. The US imposed combined tariffs of 145% on China on April 2, and China in turn imposed a 125% tariff on many US goods, including agricultural products. Another tranche of reciprocal tariffs on trading partners around the globe was paused for 90 days until July 9. And importers are also dealing with a 10% tariff on goods from almost all US trading partners, as well as 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum and automotive products and 25% tariffs on other goods from Mexico and Canada that took effect in March. Bookings for containers headed from China to the US dropped nearly 54% during the week of April 21–28 versus the comparable week in March, according to maritime visibility provider Vizion and data and analytics company Dun & Bradstreet. “One of our large customers who imports through Savannah shared with us that they canceled all their purchase orders from China for the next 30 days,” said Kent Williams, executive vice president of sales and marketing for Cookeville, Tennessee-based Averitt. The regional trucking and drayage provider, which drays about 45,000 containers a year in the Southeast, saw its drayage business jump 10% to 12% year over year in the first quarter as customers rushed goods to the US ahead of the tariffs. In the past month, as the tariffs on China took effect, Averitt’s drayage volumes have dropped 5% year over year. “There’s a real fear it could get worse,” Williams said. “All the canceled bookings and blanked sailings are about to hit the supply chain in a big way.” The effects of the trade war on drayage are just becoming apparent, said Port X’s Kempisty. “Freight that sailed April 1,” just before the US tariffs on China took effect, “is arriving in the US now,” he said. But that will be the last frontloaded freight from China. “In drayage, we’re at the front end of this,” said Kempisty. The initial impact will be on the West Coast, but it won’t be long before inland markets begin to see volumes drop. “Inland drayage markets in Chicago and Kansas City are going to see a fairly substantial decline in the next couple of weeks,” he said. IMC Logistics, purchased by global forwarder Kuehne + Nagel last November, saw its drayage volume drop 14.2% in the last seven days as of Tuesday, and 8.1% in the last 30 days. “We’re seeing double-digit decreases in the orders we’re tracing,” Henry said. Added RoadOne’s Kellaway: “We haven’t seen the business fall off yet, but we know it’s coming.” Over the next few weeks, RoadOne anticipates its drayage volumes will drop 30% on the West Coast, 20% in the Midwest and 15% on the East Coast. “We could see a three- to four-week lull in volumes, so we’re moving equipment around,” he said. How long a decline? Other drayage providers offered similar forecasts of shipment decline, but no one has a clear idea of how long it will last. Guesses — it’s hard to call them estimates — have ranged from three weeks to three months or longer, in worst-case scenarios. The monthly Global Port Tracker produced by the National Retail Foundation (NRF) and Hackett Associates in April predicted US retail imports will be down 20% year over year in the second half of 2025, with a 20.2% decline in May and a 26.6% drop in June. “Even if there’s a [US-China] agreement today, there will still be this period where there will be less work coming inbound to the ports, with less drays, less transload, less truckload and less-than-truckload [LTL],” said Williams. “All this is already in motion.” The longer the “lull” or “pause” in Asian imports lasts, the bigger the long-term impact on drayage. And the bigger the rebound may be when trade disputes are settled. “If we get agreements before July, we could have an aggressive second half of the year,” Keith Prather, managing partner at Armada Capital Intelligence, said during an SMC3 webinar Tuesday on tariffs, the economy and the LTL sector. A big enough freight snap could boost not only drayage but other transportation modes out of what’s now a four-year freight downturn. “I look forward to dealing with the congestion,” said Henry. “That’s a much better challenge than this decline, because our driver base will be stable.” Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .Associate editor Laura Robb contributed to this story.

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