<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">But a rise in demand for general cargo will not be enough to offset the sharp decline in e-commerce shipments that followed the US clampdown in May on low-value imports from China. </div>

But a rise in demand for general cargo will not be enough to offset the sharp decline in e-commerce shipments that followed the US clampdown in May on low-value imports from China.

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<div class="phx-topic">MUNICH — Trans-Pacific air cargo demand is showing signs of recovery amid restocking efforts in the US, with airlines bringing back some of the freighter capacity that had been shifted out of the trade lane to serve strengthening general cargo markets. But the volume generated by seasonal tech product launches, semiconductors, perishables and pharma — and boosted by shippers being forced into the air <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/pause-in-tariff-hikes-drives-big-gains-in-trans-pacific-spot-rates-6017111">as China-US ocean space tightens</a> — will not replace the massive demand for e-commerce that filled dozens of freighters per day, according to Airbus. “E-commerce has been driving freight demand over the past years, and the big question out there is what's going to happen to it,” Oliver von Tronchin, head of freighter marketing at the French aircraft manufacturer, told an Air Cargo Europe panel at the Transport Logistic exhibition this week. “What we are looking at is the change to the de minimis rule and the European equivalent, and if a $2.75 item is left with $100 flat fee from the US, people will not buy that item,” he added. After eliminating the duty-free exemption for low-value shipments from China valued at under $800 on May 2, the US on May 14 reduced the de minimis tariff on the low-value imports from 120% to 54%. Items sent via post from China to the US will be charged a flat fee of $100, regardless of value. The European Union is proposing a €2 handling fee for small parcels under €150 from China that would be paid by online retailers, such as Shein and Temu, but Brussels has not set an implementation date. In 2024, e-commerce shipments accounted for about 50% of China to US air freight volume, according to rate benchmarking platform Xeneta. Since the duty-free status of low-value Chinese imports was revoked in May, the volume has declined. The drop in trans-Pacific air freight is a leading factor in the International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) forecast of little to no growth in global air cargo volume for 2025, a huge climbdown from the 12% jump in year over year demand in 2024. <h3>Challenge to match supply and demand </h3>Airlines are trying to match supply with demand, but on the trans-Pacific are not being helped by the policy changes emanating from the White House. China-US tonnage in mid-May was down 25% year over year, with freighter capacity down 40%, according to Cargo Facts Consulting. As volume began to recover over the last two weeks, it encouraged carriers to bring back freighters, but with e-commerce demand muted, most of the returning lift was serving general cargo. C.H. Robinson noted in a market update this week that airlines were being cautious in adding capacity as demand recovers, with that balancing act expected to tighten available space and push rates higher throughout June, especially for non-priority shipments. The forwarder warned that end-of-quarter demand and tariff deadlines will likely create bottlenecks for last-minute bookings on China-US routes and advised shippers to explore alternate routes through Southeast Asia and book space two to three weeks in advance. The rising demand on the trans-Pacific can be seen in data from air cargo analyst Rotate, which shows an 11% increase in air cargo capacity on the Asia-North America route last week compared with the average capacity deployed over the previous four weeks. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="d1642275-60f0-447f-84f8-8fd17fcb6d8f"></dynamic-object></div>China to US spot rates are rising in tandem with the increasing demand; as of June 1, they were up 14% from the first week of May at $4.31 per kilogram, according to Xeneta. Nadeem Sultan, senior vice president of cargo planning and freighters at Emirates SkyCargo, said general air freight volume was growing on Asia-North America, but airlines remained in a holding pattern regarding the tariffs. ”We are seeing that demand rise, but right now, everybody is waiting until mid-August when the 90-day pause in (China) tariffs ends to see what the permanent rule is going to be,” he said. "Depending on what the politicians say over the coming weeks, corporate companies are going to decide how high the risk is and whether they should be frontloading or not,” Sultan added. “But it is too early for them to make that decision now and I would say by the middle of July we will have more clarity.” <h3>E-commerce is ‘a way of life’ </h3>While e-commerce volume is currently under pressure, airlines and aircraft manufacturers at Air Cargo Europe were bullish on future air cargo demand. “Overall, e-commerce is still robust and will still be a sizable driver within air freight in the years ahead,” von Tronchin said. “It has become a way of life, and we're used to that way of life, and I don't think any of us are necessarily going to change it.” Jannie Davel, CEO of MSC Air Cargo, agreed, noting that e-commerce would remain a core component of air freight, and that the market would rebalance, although not to the high demand of the past. Davel added that shippers of general cargo were also adapting to changing trade flows as the tariffs forced Asian manufacturers to adjust production strategies. “We are seeing a lot of high-tech manufacturing shifting out of China to South Asia, so even if the tariffs are maintained, the trade will still be there,” he said. “It will maybe take some time to adjust, but then it will balance out.” The bullish view on air cargo demand was shared by Boeing and Airbus. Even with the US-China trade war roiling international markets and changing demand patterns, the plane makers have left their 20-year market forecasts unchanged. John Purdoch, director of product marketing of freighters at Boeing, said all the fundamentals in the market remained in place to support long-term growth. “Over the next 20 years, almost 3,000 new freighters will enter the market in all segments, and over 800 of those in the large, wide-body space,” Purdoch said. “We believe we are on a long-term growth path of 4% growth year over year for the next 20 years.” Von Tronchin said Airbus was “in the long-term game,” adding that the current disruptions to the market were temporary. "Our global market forecast is for 20 years, and as we saw in COVID-19 and after the financial crisis, air cargo has always come back to a trend of 3% to 4% growth per year,” he said. “Air cargo will remain a growth industry, independent of the short-term effects we are seeing.” Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

MUNICH — Trans-Pacific air cargo demand is showing signs of recovery amid restocking efforts in the US, with airlines bringing back some of the freighter capacity that had been shifted out of the trade lane to serve strengthening general cargo markets. But the volume generated by seasonal tech product launches, semiconductors, perishables and pharma — and boosted by shippers being forced into the air as China-US ocean space tightens — will not replace the massive demand for e-commerce that filled dozens of freighters per day, according to Airbus. “E-commerce has been driving freight demand over the past years, and the big question out there is what's going to happen to it,” Oliver von Tronchin, head of freighter marketing at the French aircraft manufacturer, told an Air Cargo Europe panel at the Transport Logistic exhibition this week. “What we are looking at is the change to the de minimis rule and the European equivalent, and if a $2.75 item is left with $100 flat fee from the US, people will not buy that item,” he added. After eliminating the duty-free exemption for low-value shipments from China valued at under $800 on May 2, the US on May 14 reduced the de minimis tariff on the low-value imports from 120% to 54%. Items sent via post from China to the US will be charged a flat fee of $100, regardless of value. The European Union is proposing a €2 handling fee for small parcels under €150 from China that would be paid by online retailers, such as Shein and Temu, but Brussels has not set an implementation date. In 2024, e-commerce shipments accounted for about 50% of China to US air freight volume, according to rate benchmarking platform Xeneta. Since the duty-free status of low-value Chinese imports was revoked in May, the volume has declined. The drop in trans-Pacific air freight is a leading factor in the International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) forecast of little to no growth in global air cargo volume for 2025, a huge climbdown from the 12% jump in year over year demand in 2024. Challenge to match supply and demand Airlines are trying to match supply with demand, but on the trans-Pacific are not being helped by the policy changes emanating from the White House. China-US tonnage in mid-May was down 25% year over year, with freighter capacity down 40%, according to Cargo Facts Consulting. As volume began to recover over the last two weeks, it encouraged carriers to bring back freighters, but with e-commerce demand muted, most of the returning lift was serving general cargo. C.H. Robinson noted in a market update this week that airlines were being cautious in adding capacity as demand recovers, with that balancing act expected to tighten available space and push rates higher throughout June, especially for non-priority shipments. The forwarder warned that end-of-quarter demand and tariff deadlines will likely create bottlenecks for last-minute bookings on China-US routes and advised shippers to explore alternate routes through Southeast Asia and book space two to three weeks in advance. The rising demand on the trans-Pacific can be seen in data from air cargo analyst Rotate, which shows an 11% increase in air cargo capacity on the Asia-North America route last week compared with the average capacity deployed over the previous four weeks. China to US spot rates are rising in tandem with the increasing demand; as of June 1, they were up 14% from the first week of May at $4.31 per kilogram, according to Xeneta. Nadeem Sultan, senior vice president of cargo planning and freighters at Emirates SkyCargo, said general air freight volume was growing on Asia-North America, but airlines remained in a holding pattern regarding the tariffs. ”We are seeing that demand rise, but right now, everybody is waiting until mid-August when the 90-day pause in (China) tariffs ends to see what the permanent rule is going to be,” he said. "Depending on what the politicians say over the coming weeks, corporate companies are going to decide how high the risk is and whether they should be frontloading or not,” Sultan added. “But it is too early for them to make that decision now and I would say by the middle of July we will have more clarity.” E-commerce is ‘a way of life’ While e-commerce volume is currently under pressure, airlines and aircraft manufacturers at Air Cargo Europe were bullish on future air cargo demand. “Overall, e-commerce is still robust and will still be a sizable driver within air freight in the years ahead,” von Tronchin said. “It has become a way of life, and we're used to that way of life, and I don't think any of us are necessarily going to change it.” Jannie Davel, CEO of MSC Air Cargo, agreed, noting that e-commerce would remain a core component of air freight, and that the market would rebalance, although not to the high demand of the past. Davel added that shippers of general cargo were also adapting to changing trade flows as the tariffs forced Asian manufacturers to adjust production strategies. “We are seeing a lot of high-tech manufacturing shifting out of China to South Asia, so even if the tariffs are maintained, the trade will still be there,” he said. “It will maybe take some time to adjust, but then it will balance out.” The bullish view on air cargo demand was shared by Boeing and Airbus. Even with the US-China trade war roiling international markets and changing demand patterns, the plane makers have left their 20-year market forecasts unchanged. John Purdoch, director of product marketing of freighters at Boeing, said all the fundamentals in the market remained in place to support long-term growth. “Over the next 20 years, almost 3,000 new freighters will enter the market in all segments, and over 800 of those in the large, wide-body space,” Purdoch said. “We believe we are on a long-term growth path of 4% growth year over year for the next 20 years.” Von Tronchin said Airbus was “in the long-term game,” adding that the current disruptions to the market were temporary. "Our global market forecast is for 20 years, and as we saw in COVID-19 and after the financial crisis, air cargo has always come back to a trend of 3% to 4% growth per year,” he said. “Air cargo will remain a growth industry, independent of the short-term effects we are seeing.” Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Air Cargo

Signs of air cargo recovery on the trans-Pacific as freighter aircraft return

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Client relationships have not been harmed by tariffs because shippers and carriers recognize the need for additional and unexpected costs to be passed through the supply chain.</div>

Client relationships have not been harmed by tariffs because shippers and carriers recognize the need for additional and unexpected costs to be passed through the supply chain.

<div class="phx-topic">Trade tariffs — much maligned by shippers and carriers alike — are helping to raise awareness of the influence of external factors in pricing and operations in the project cargo industry, experts in the sector say. Alessio Bianchi, managing director for project cargo forwarder DCS Liburnus, told the Journal of Commerce that it is now easier to communicate to clients that these new costs are an industry-wide challenge, not a personal dispute. ”We are telling clients ‘This is not about me, it’s not about you, it’s something that we have to cope with,’” he said. Unforeseen expenses, especially tariffs, are increasingly being passed directly to the client. Thomas Parlow, managing director for TP Shipping, said when making budgetary calls to clients, his team now stresses that any kind of new tariffs, including those proposed to be levied on vessels calling the US, will be for the client's account. In response to the US Trade Representative’s proposed port tax on Chinese-built vessels calling at US ports — currently in its third draft — charterers are now laser-focused on the build origin of multipurpose and heavy-lift vessels. ”It’s all ‘where was it built?,’” said Mathias Audrain, commercial business development director at Companie Maritime Nantaise. As an asset owner, Audrain noted that none of the company’s roll-on/roll-off or container-ro/ro fleet was built in China. He added that it is important to distinguish between port fees for the vessel and for the cargo, acknowledging that these unexpected changes are creating "some surprise" for charterers. The political landscape, he noted, is “suddenly changing the rules of the game.” Speaking to the Journal of Commerce, the project cargo specialists shared concerns that there are no US-built vessels with heavy lift capacity, “except for the ones that are specifically built for the US military operations," Parlow said. This scarcity could drive up costs for US-bound project cargo; Kyriakos Kalis, director at project cargo forwarder Cosmatos, warned that limiting tonnage would inevitably lead to higher prices for goods reaching the US. <h3>Tax questions still circulating </h3>The ripple effects of the proposed fees and tariffs on the project cargo sector extend to broader trade dynamics. Rajesh Vaidyanathan Iyer, from the projects and logistics cluster at Khimji Ramdas, an Oman conglomerate with a project forwarding arm, highlighted the unique position of Middle Eastern countries with existing free trade agreements with the US, such as Oman and Bahrain. He added that there are ongoing inquiries to the US embassies in Middle Eastern countries regarding the potential effects on tax exemption treaties that countries in the region currently have with the US. Despite the volatility, there’s a strong desire for stability. Bianchi expressed a common hope. ”The general consensus is that at a certain point, everything will stabilize,” he said. “We don’t need high rates or low rates. It’s stable rates.” The current climate is also spurring strategic shifts in project cargo manufacturing. Iyer has observed "renewed interest from (India and China) to set up factories in the Middle East," due to the more favorable tariff regime for the region. An influx of investment, particularly in free zones in the UAE and Oman, is creating new project opportunities for the logistics sector, with several companies already committing to setting up factories, he said. Decarbonization efforts are a key driver of demand, particularly evident in the growing size of wind turbine components. Iyer pointed out that wind blades in the Middle East are often 95 meters plus, significantly larger than the 60- to 70-meter blades commonly used in parts of the US. Kalis highlighted the transport challenges posed by longer blades, which are "not so easy to transport in all countries." The nature of cargo handling is also evolving. Bianchi noted that many large container ships, primarily built in China, could face significant costs if they are tariffed for every call, impacting project cargo component prices. ”A lot of container ships are now carrying breakbulk pieces,” he said, noting that was due to increased terminal lifting capacities that made it possible to accommodate larger cargoes on those vessels. Audrain said that container lines are developing expertise to handle diverse project cargo, and are even dedicating space on ships for specific projects. Contact Carly Fields at <a href="mailto:carly.fields@spglobal.com">carly.fields@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Trade tariffs — much maligned by shippers and carriers alike — are helping to raise awareness of the influence of external factors in pricing and operations in the project cargo industry, experts in the sector say. Alessio Bianchi, managing director for project cargo forwarder DCS Liburnus, told the Journal of Commerce that it is now easier to communicate to clients that these new costs are an industry-wide challenge, not a personal dispute. ”We are telling clients ‘This is not about me, it’s not about you, it’s something that we have to cope with,’” he said. Unforeseen expenses, especially tariffs, are increasingly being passed directly to the client. Thomas Parlow, managing director for TP Shipping, said when making budgetary calls to clients, his team now stresses that any kind of new tariffs, including those proposed to be levied on vessels calling the US, will be for the client's account. In response to the US Trade Representative’s proposed port tax on Chinese-built vessels calling at US ports — currently in its third draft — charterers are now laser-focused on the build origin of multipurpose and heavy-lift vessels. ”It’s all ‘where was it built?,’” said Mathias Audrain, commercial business development director at Companie Maritime Nantaise. As an asset owner, Audrain noted that none of the company’s roll-on/roll-off or container-ro/ro fleet was built in China. He added that it is important to distinguish between port fees for the vessel and for the cargo, acknowledging that these unexpected changes are creating "some surprise" for charterers. The political landscape, he noted, is “suddenly changing the rules of the game.” Speaking to the Journal of Commerce, the project cargo specialists shared concerns that there are no US-built vessels with heavy lift capacity, “except for the ones that are specifically built for the US military operations," Parlow said. This scarcity could drive up costs for US-bound project cargo; Kyriakos Kalis, director at project cargo forwarder Cosmatos, warned that limiting tonnage would inevitably lead to higher prices for goods reaching the US. Tax questions still circulating The ripple effects of the proposed fees and tariffs on the project cargo sector extend to broader trade dynamics. Rajesh Vaidyanathan Iyer, from the projects and logistics cluster at Khimji Ramdas, an Oman conglomerate with a project forwarding arm, highlighted the unique position of Middle Eastern countries with existing free trade agreements with the US, such as Oman and Bahrain. He added that there are ongoing inquiries to the US embassies in Middle Eastern countries regarding the potential effects on tax exemption treaties that countries in the region currently have with the US. Despite the volatility, there’s a strong desire for stability. Bianchi expressed a common hope. ”The general consensus is that at a certain point, everything will stabilize,” he said. “We don’t need high rates or low rates. It’s stable rates.” The current climate is also spurring strategic shifts in project cargo manufacturing. Iyer has observed "renewed interest from (India and China) to set up factories in the Middle East," due to the more favorable tariff regime for the region. An influx of investment, particularly in free zones in the UAE and Oman, is creating new project opportunities for the logistics sector, with several companies already committing to setting up factories, he said. Decarbonization efforts are a key driver of demand, particularly evident in the growing size of wind turbine components. Iyer pointed out that wind blades in the Middle East are often 95 meters plus, significantly larger than the 60- to 70-meter blades commonly used in parts of the US. Kalis highlighted the transport challenges posed by longer blades, which are "not so easy to transport in all countries." The nature of cargo handling is also evolving. Bianchi noted that many large container ships, primarily built in China, could face significant costs if they are tariffed for every call, impacting project cargo component prices. ”A lot of container ships are now carrying breakbulk pieces,” he said, noting that was due to increased terminal lifting capacities that made it possible to accommodate larger cargoes on those vessels. Audrain said that container lines are developing expertise to handle diverse project cargo, and are even dedicating space on ships for specific projects. Contact Carly Fields at carly.fields@spglobal.com .

Maritime

Breakbulk News

Breakbulk carriers

Project cargo

Tariffs prompt honest talk on costs among project cargo players

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Maritime employers along Canada’s West Coast have a new agreement that will avert the type of labor actions seen late last year. </div>

Maritime employers along Canada’s West Coast have a new agreement that will avert the type of labor actions seen late last year.

<div class="phx-topic">Maritime employers at the Port of Vancouver have agreed on a new contract with the union representing longshore foremen that will ensure labor peace at Canada’s biggest gateway for the next two years. The deal was reached between the two sides before Canada’s labor board proceeded to binding an agreement upon employers and the union. The British Columbia Maritime Employers Association (BCMEA) said in a statement Wednesday that it and the International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 514 both ratified a new four-year collective bargaining agreement for longshore foremen. The agreement lasts through March 2027 as its retroactive April 2023 start coincides with the expiry of the previous master contract that covered about 700 members across both Vancouver and Prince Rupert. “We look forward to working together to implement the terms of the agreement,” the BCMEA said in its statement, without providing further details of the deal. The agreement comes after <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/bc-container-ports-ready-to-lock-out-longshore-foremen-after-strike-vote-5784004">Canada’s labor board forced striking foremen in British Columbia back to work</a> last November, ruling their strike was illegal because <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ilwu-canada-illegal-strike-ruling-averts-vancouver-shutdown-5192250">it targeted one terminal</a>, DP World Centerm, for its use of semi-automated rail cranes. When the Canada Industrial Relations Board sought to put the contract dispute to binding arbitration, Local 514 mounted a legal challenge to the process back in December. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Maritime employers at the Port of Vancouver have agreed on a new contract with the union representing longshore foremen that will ensure labor peace at Canada’s biggest gateway for the next two years. The deal was reached between the two sides before Canada’s labor board proceeded to binding an agreement upon employers and the union. The British Columbia Maritime Employers Association (BCMEA) said in a statement Wednesday that it and the International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 514 both ratified a new four-year collective bargaining agreement for longshore foremen. The agreement lasts through March 2027 as its retroactive April 2023 start coincides with the expiry of the previous master contract that covered about 700 members across both Vancouver and Prince Rupert. “We look forward to working together to implement the terms of the agreement,” the BCMEA said in its statement, without providing further details of the deal. The agreement comes after Canada’s labor board forced striking foremen in British Columbia back to work last November, ruling their strike was illegal because it targeted one terminal , DP World Centerm, for its use of semi-automated rail cranes. When the Canada Industrial Relations Board sought to put the contract dispute to binding arbitration, Local 514 mounted a legal challenge to the process back in December. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Longshore labor

North American ports

BC longshore foremen reach deal with port employers on new contract

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The terminal operator said it has reduced the inventory of rail-bound containers at its Elizabeth facility to about 1,600, down from about 4,000 in early May. </div>

The terminal operator said it has reduced the inventory of rail-bound containers at its Elizabeth facility to about 1,600, down from about 4,000 in early May.

<div class="phx-topic">APM Terminals is looking to move a backlog of rail containers at its New Jersey facility stemming from the first wave of tariff-driven frontloading and the startup of the Gemini Cooperation alliance. US East Coast ports anticipate more waves of frontloading ahead, but their lesser exposure to China may mean only small surges, at best. APM said in a statement Wednesday that it has reduced the inventory of rail-bound containers at its Elizabeth terminal to about 1,600, from about 4,000 in early May. The heavy inventory resulted in dwell times for intermodal imports into the port reaching almost nine days by the end of May, according to data from the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ), the highest in two years of data. Rail dwell is typically three to four days. The rail inventory had been growing through spring, with the PANYNJ reporting March and April import volumes that were the highest since September and October of 2024. The number of rail lifts for containers during April was the highest since October 2022. APM said the volumes were likely driven by <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-in-race-to-replenish-china-stocks-to-avoid-summer-shortages-maersk-ceo-6001159">shippers concerned about ever-changing US tariff policy</a>. APM also saw heavier volume with <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/apm-to-spend-500-million-to-enhance-cargo-handling-at-elizabeth-terminal-5969027">the start of vessel services offered through the Gemini Cooperation between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd</a>, further adding to the backlog. APM is owned by Maersk. Along with APM extending shifts and operating hours at its rail yard, Norfolk Southern also added another daily train from Elizabeth to handle the added volume. APM anticipates that rail dwell should be back to normal by mid-to-late June. “As of early June, we have seen significant improvement in rail flow,” it said. “Average rail dwell times are improving daily with higher utilization of rail assets.” <h3>Surge, but not severe </h3>Lowering rail dwell will be critical in the coming weeks. At a recent update meeting convened by PANYNJ, multiple port stakeholders said they anticipate <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/china-us-ocean-bookings-surge-since-weekend-trade-deal-hapag-lloyd-6004653">a volume surge starting around the middle of June</a> that could last through much of summer. However, the degree of that surge could be tempered by the port’s lower exposure to freight from China. “While we do expect a surge, we don’t expect it to be as severe as other gateways since China accounts for about 25% of our volume,” the PANYNJ said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce. Nonetheless, the PANYNJ said area marine terminals are evacuating as much cargo as possible to make room for more imports and may extend gate hours or open on Saturdays as needed. The Shipping Association of New York and New Jersey (SANYNJ) said in a statement that it is balancing vacation requests from longshore workers with demand from marine terminals. Thanks to stricter terms around absenteeism negotiated in local union contracts, the SANYNJ said there should be fewer concerns about longshore workers not showing up as scheduled. Some terminals have also agreed to higher staffing levels for longshore workers in some crafts in return for productivity gains on each shift. Anticipating a buildup of empty containers that would reduce truck fluidity, the PANYNJ is looking for additional empty depot space around the port. Port Director Bethann Rooney asked ocean carriers in a May letter to “implement aggressive plans to evacuate accumulated empty containers and prioritize balancing containers in the port to ensure fluidity.” “During the last major cargo surge in 2022, empty containers remained in the port for extended periods of time, which limited the trucker’s ability to efficiently return empties,” Rooney said in the letter. “This contributed to significant congestion, chassis shortages, inefficient land use, and increased and unnecessary costs for our shared stakeholders and customers.” Ports America Chief Executive Matthew Leech told the Journal of Commerce that he expects multiple waves of container frontloading through summer. The first wave of freight trying to beat the April implementation of President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs — since paused — has already reached US ports and will recede shortly. But the next round of frontloading could pick up in mid-to-late June as importers from Europe try to get ahead of the July 9 delayed start of Trump’s 50% tariff against the European Union. After that, shippers from China have until mid-August before Trump’s 145% tariffs go back into effect. “We’re at the tail end of the first frontloading from early April,” Leech said. “Now with the other tariff reprieves, it could start to accelerate through mid-August.” Leech said the surge may be constrained by the availability of empty containers in Asia for imports. The cancellation of freight bookings from China immediately after the announcement of Trump’s tariffs meant a lot of containers were used to store goods. Leech estimated a backlog of some 500,000 containers packed for shipment but delayed due to tariffs. Now with those goods finally moving, any additional purchase orders will have to wait on those empty containers being returned to their origin, he added. “The surge is coming, but the issue is equipment availability,” Leech said. “There’s a significant inventory of empties that need to be returned.” <h3>Railroad expects surge </h3>Norfolk Southern (NS) said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce that it expects a “surge in traffic in the coming weeks.” After a crane outage last week at its Landers intermodal yard in Chicago, NS said all four cranes at Landers are currently running. The <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ns-opening-lots-in-memphis-to-address-terminal-gridlock-5242669">additional space</a>, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/norfolk-southern-adds-to-southeast-intermodal-capacity-with-new-cranes-5217288">increased crane capacity</a> and <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/norfolk-southern-debuts-atlanta-appointment-system-for-import-loads-5222077">appointment system</a> at its intermodal yards should be able to handle the surge, it said. “NS is in a strong position to manage through the anticipated volume fluctuations,” the railroad said. “We have taken the lessons we learned during past disruptions and will leverage them in the coming months.” Other East Coast ports, though, are taking concerns about a cargo surge in stride. A spokesperson for the Port of Virginia told the Journal of Commerce the terminals there are running at about 60% to 65% capacity, so there’s room for more imports. Moreover, China only represents about 20% of the port’s inbound volumes. A spokesperson for the South Carolina Ports Authority told the Journal of Commerce that while it does expect increased volumes from China, operations at Charleston are fluid. “We feel comfortable to handle what’s coming,” the spokesperson said. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com ">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

APM Terminals is looking to move a backlog of rail containers at its New Jersey facility stemming from the first wave of tariff-driven frontloading and the startup of the Gemini Cooperation alliance. US East Coast ports anticipate more waves of frontloading ahead, but their lesser exposure to China may mean only small surges, at best. APM said in a statement Wednesday that it has reduced the inventory of rail-bound containers at its Elizabeth terminal to about 1,600, from about 4,000 in early May. The heavy inventory resulted in dwell times for intermodal imports into the port reaching almost nine days by the end of May, according to data from the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ), the highest in two years of data. Rail dwell is typically three to four days. The rail inventory had been growing through spring, with the PANYNJ reporting March and April import volumes that were the highest since September and October of 2024. The number of rail lifts for containers during April was the highest since October 2022. APM said the volumes were likely driven by shippers concerned about ever-changing US tariff policy . APM also saw heavier volume with the start of vessel services offered through the Gemini Cooperation between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd , further adding to the backlog. APM is owned by Maersk. Along with APM extending shifts and operating hours at its rail yard, Norfolk Southern also added another daily train from Elizabeth to handle the added volume. APM anticipates that rail dwell should be back to normal by mid-to-late June. “As of early June, we have seen significant improvement in rail flow,” it said. “Average rail dwell times are improving daily with higher utilization of rail assets.” Surge, but not severe Lowering rail dwell will be critical in the coming weeks. At a recent update meeting convened by PANYNJ, multiple port stakeholders said they anticipate a volume surge starting around the middle of June that could last through much of summer. However, the degree of that surge could be tempered by the port’s lower exposure to freight from China. “While we do expect a surge, we don’t expect it to be as severe as other gateways since China accounts for about 25% of our volume,” the PANYNJ said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce. Nonetheless, the PANYNJ said area marine terminals are evacuating as much cargo as possible to make room for more imports and may extend gate hours or open on Saturdays as needed. The Shipping Association of New York and New Jersey (SANYNJ) said in a statement that it is balancing vacation requests from longshore workers with demand from marine terminals. Thanks to stricter terms around absenteeism negotiated in local union contracts, the SANYNJ said there should be fewer concerns about longshore workers not showing up as scheduled. Some terminals have also agreed to higher staffing levels for longshore workers in some crafts in return for productivity gains on each shift. Anticipating a buildup of empty containers that would reduce truck fluidity, the PANYNJ is looking for additional empty depot space around the port. Port Director Bethann Rooney asked ocean carriers in a May letter to “implement aggressive plans to evacuate accumulated empty containers and prioritize balancing containers in the port to ensure fluidity.” “During the last major cargo surge in 2022, empty containers remained in the port for extended periods of time, which limited the trucker’s ability to efficiently return empties,” Rooney said in the letter. “This contributed to significant congestion, chassis shortages, inefficient land use, and increased and unnecessary costs for our shared stakeholders and customers.” Ports America Chief Executive Matthew Leech told the Journal of Commerce that he expects multiple waves of container frontloading through summer. The first wave of freight trying to beat the April implementation of President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs — since paused — has already reached US ports and will recede shortly. But the next round of frontloading could pick up in mid-to-late June as importers from Europe try to get ahead of the July 9 delayed start of Trump’s 50% tariff against the European Union. After that, shippers from China have until mid-August before Trump’s 145% tariffs go back into effect. “We’re at the tail end of the first frontloading from early April,” Leech said. “Now with the other tariff reprieves, it could start to accelerate through mid-August.” Leech said the surge may be constrained by the availability of empty containers in Asia for imports. The cancellation of freight bookings from China immediately after the announcement of Trump’s tariffs meant a lot of containers were used to store goods. Leech estimated a backlog of some 500,000 containers packed for shipment but delayed due to tariffs. Now with those goods finally moving, any additional purchase orders will have to wait on those empty containers being returned to their origin, he added. “The surge is coming, but the issue is equipment availability,” Leech said. “There’s a significant inventory of empties that need to be returned.” Railroad expects surge Norfolk Southern (NS) said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce that it expects a “surge in traffic in the coming weeks.” After a crane outage last week at its Landers intermodal yard in Chicago, NS said all four cranes at Landers are currently running. The additional space , increased crane capacity and appointment system at its intermodal yards should be able to handle the surge, it said. “NS is in a strong position to manage through the anticipated volume fluctuations,” the railroad said. “We have taken the lessons we learned during past disruptions and will leverage them in the coming months.” Other East Coast ports, though, are taking concerns about a cargo surge in stride. A spokesperson for the Port of Virginia told the Journal of Commerce the terminals there are running at about 60% to 65% capacity, so there’s room for more imports. Moreover, China only represents about 20% of the port’s inbound volumes. A spokesperson for the South Carolina Ports Authority told the Journal of Commerce that while it does expect increased volumes from China, operations at Charleston are fluid. “We feel comfortable to handle what’s coming,” the spokesperson said. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Container lines

Marine terminals

Intermodal providers

APM clearing out New Jersey rail container backlog ahead of a summer surge

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The shift of some capacity to the Asia-US trade to meet surging demand there is contributing to tighter vessel space in the ECSA market, forwarders tell the Journal of Commerce. </div>

The shift of some capacity to the Asia-US trade to meet surging demand there is contributing to tighter vessel space in the ECSA market, forwarders tell the Journal of Commerce.

<div class="phx-topic">Shippers moving cargo from Asia to the East Coast of South America (ECSA) are dealing with peak season delays and a doubling of container spot rates in recent weeks amid equipment imbalances and congestion at major destination ports. The shift of some capacity to the Asia-US trade to meet surging demand there is also contributing to tighter vessel space in the ECSA market, forwarders tell the Journal of Commerce. Congestion at the Brazilian ports of Itapoa, Santos, Rio Grande and Pecem and at Buenos Aires in Argentina, has soaked up newly deployed tonnage, pushing container spot rates to $4,650 per FEU, up from $2,360 per FEU, in just the last two weeks on the eastbound leg of the trade, according to data from Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Forwarders say inbound space is booked for at least the next two weeks. Marcelo Machado, a freight forwarder at CSS Logistics in Brazil, said vessel slots for the first half of June were bought quickly as blank sailings exacerbated an already significant capacity reduction. “Blank sailings had a great deal to do with the situation,” said Machado. “Then carriers like Hyundai started directing vessels to the US. There was a lot of demand and carriers had to redirect vessels to the US.” <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="3255cb79-f66b-43bf-b624-083a7fa64a93"></dynamic-object></div>Container lines are seeking peak season surcharges (PSSs) on contract rates valid for more than 90 days. CMA CGM said on May 30 it would impose a $2,000-per-container surcharge on all cargo from Asia to ECSA from July 1 until further notice. The carrier said another $1,000-per-container surcharge would be introduced June 7, followed by a third surcharge of $2,000 per container on June 22. “Spot rates have been going up week by week,” Mauricio Fisch, director of Brazil logistics company Ocean Express, told the Journal of Commerce. <h3>Equipment, congestion difficulties </h3>As the Asia-ECSA trade is in peak season, rate increases have been further bolstered by equipment scarcity and congestion at the key Brazilian ports, which are experiencing “slightly disrupted operations,” according to Kuehne + Nagle’s SeaExplorer platform. Buenos Aires is seeing berthing delays of one to three days due to congestion, while Rio Grande, Itapoa, Santos and Pecem are seeing average vessel waiting times of about two to three days, said Kuehne + Nagle. Forwarders say congestion has been getting progressively worse since January, when an ongoing strike by Brazilian customs workers began, increasing cargo delays. “The customs [workers] are intensifying the strike and won’t [serve] any activities other than priority shipments that are time critical,” said another Brazil forwarder. Forwarders also report ECSA equipment issues, noting a lack of TEUs from Zim Integrated Shipping Services across all Brazilian ports and Cosco Shipping lacking volume at Rio de Janeiro. Cosco and Zim declined to comment. Another forwarder said carriers are prioritizing more lucrative spot market shipments over contracted cargo, “causing a lot of cargo to roll or miss equipment availability, leading to delays and forcing [later] bookings [at] higher rates.” <h3>Capacity management </h3>Forwarders say carriers are aggressively managing capacity, driven partly by volatile North American demand. HMM canceled several calls on its Far East-India-East Latin America service due to vessels being redeployed on the Asia-US trade, Fisch said. Asia-ECSA also saw more May blanks, with 12.6% of the total capacity blanked and 250,000 TEUs of active capacity, according to maritime visibility platform eeSea. In April, only 2.8% of the lane’s capacity was blanked. Projections from eeSea show capacity is due to increase on the trade this month. While most carriers increased capacity on direct services quarter over quarter, Hapag-Lloyd and Cosco were outliers, choosing to remove approximately one-third and one-fifth of capacity, respectively, in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, according to MDS Transmodal. <h3>West Coast also seeing impacts </h3>Seeing similar increases, the Platts index shows North Asia to West Coast South America (WCSA) rates rose 63% in the past two weeks to reach $3,700 per FEU amid equipment and space issues, with forwarders reporting rates as high as $5,000 per FEU. CMA CGM said it would impose two PSSs in June for cargo from Asia to WCSA, Central America and the Caribbean — $1,000 per FEU on June 7 and $2,000 per FEU on June 22. Meanwhile, Valparaiso in Chile and Buenaventura in Colombia are considered “slightly disrupted” by SeaExplorer, with vessel waiting times of about three and four days on average, respectively. Peru’s Port of Callao is “heavily disrupted” due to local street closures, which could increase port entry times by 30%, Kuehne + Nagle said. Additionally, a forwarder noted equipment scarcity for all container equipment from CMA CGM throughout WCSA. The carrier declined to comment. Contact Laura Robb at <a href="mailto:Laura.Robb@spglobal.com">laura.robb@spglobal.com</a>.  Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto: keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>. </div>

Shippers moving cargo from Asia to the East Coast of South America (ECSA) are dealing with peak season delays and a doubling of container spot rates in recent weeks amid equipment imbalances and congestion at major destination ports. The shift of some capacity to the Asia-US trade to meet surging demand there is also contributing to tighter vessel space in the ECSA market, forwarders tell the Journal of Commerce. Congestion at the Brazilian ports of Itapoa, Santos, Rio Grande and Pecem and at Buenos Aires in Argentina, has soaked up newly deployed tonnage, pushing container spot rates to $4,650 per FEU, up from $2,360 per FEU, in just the last two weeks on the eastbound leg of the trade, according to data from Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Forwarders say inbound space is booked for at least the next two weeks. Marcelo Machado, a freight forwarder at CSS Logistics in Brazil, said vessel slots for the first half of June were bought quickly as blank sailings exacerbated an already significant capacity reduction. “Blank sailings had a great deal to do with the situation,” said Machado. “Then carriers like Hyundai started directing vessels to the US. There was a lot of demand and carriers had to redirect vessels to the US.” Container lines are seeking peak season surcharges (PSSs) on contract rates valid for more than 90 days. CMA CGM said on May 30 it would impose a $2,000-per-container surcharge on all cargo from Asia to ECSA from July 1 until further notice. The carrier said another $1,000-per-container surcharge would be introduced June 7, followed by a third surcharge of $2,000 per container on June 22. “Spot rates have been going up week by week,” Mauricio Fisch, director of Brazil logistics company Ocean Express, told the Journal of Commerce. Equipment, congestion difficulties As the Asia-ECSA trade is in peak season, rate increases have been further bolstered by equipment scarcity and congestion at the key Brazilian ports, which are experiencing “slightly disrupted operations,” according to Kuehne + Nagle’s SeaExplorer platform. Buenos Aires is seeing berthing delays of one to three days due to congestion, while Rio Grande, Itapoa, Santos and Pecem are seeing average vessel waiting times of about two to three days, said Kuehne + Nagle. Forwarders say congestion has been getting progressively worse since January, when an ongoing strike by Brazilian customs workers began, increasing cargo delays. “The customs [workers] are intensifying the strike and won’t [serve] any activities other than priority shipments that are time critical,” said another Brazil forwarder. Forwarders also report ECSA equipment issues, noting a lack of TEUs from Zim Integrated Shipping Services across all Brazilian ports and Cosco Shipping lacking volume at Rio de Janeiro. Cosco and Zim declined to comment. Another forwarder said carriers are prioritizing more lucrative spot market shipments over contracted cargo, “causing a lot of cargo to roll or miss equipment availability, leading to delays and forcing [later] bookings [at] higher rates.” Capacity management Forwarders say carriers are aggressively managing capacity, driven partly by volatile North American demand. HMM canceled several calls on its Far East-India-East Latin America service due to vessels being redeployed on the Asia-US trade, Fisch said. Asia-ECSA also saw more May blanks, with 12.6% of the total capacity blanked and 250,000 TEUs of active capacity, according to maritime visibility platform eeSea. In April, only 2.8% of the lane’s capacity was blanked. Projections from eeSea show capacity is due to increase on the trade this month. While most carriers increased capacity on direct services quarter over quarter, Hapag-Lloyd and Cosco were outliers, choosing to remove approximately one-third and one-fifth of capacity, respectively, in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, according to MDS Transmodal. West Coast also seeing impacts Seeing similar increases, the Platts index shows North Asia to West Coast South America (WCSA) rates rose 63% in the past two weeks to reach $3,700 per FEU amid equipment and space issues, with forwarders reporting rates as high as $5,000 per FEU. CMA CGM said it would impose two PSSs in June for cargo from Asia to WCSA, Central America and the Caribbean — $1,000 per FEU on June 7 and $2,000 per FEU on June 22. Meanwhile, Valparaiso in Chile and Buenaventura in Colombia are considered “slightly disrupted” by SeaExplorer, with vessel waiting times of about three and four days on average, respectively. Peru’s Port of Callao is “heavily disrupted” due to local street closures, which could increase port entry times by 30%, Kuehne + Nagle said. Additionally, a forwarder noted equipment scarcity for all container equipment from CMA CGM throughout WCSA. The carrier declined to comment. Contact Laura Robb at laura.robb@spglobal.com .  Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

Container Shipping News

Port News

Forwarding

International ports

China-ECSA spot rates climb amid bullish market pressure

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The hub in northern Germany is expecting rapid volume growth for the rest of the year following a record first quarter spurred on by the launch of the carrier alliance. </div>

The hub in northern Germany is expecting rapid volume growth for the rest of the year following a record first quarter spurred on by the launch of the carrier alliance.

<div class="phx-topic">MUNICH — The establishment of Gemini Cooperation’s hub in Wilhelmshaven has been “a game changer” for the north German port, with container volume rising rapidly since the carrier alliance was launched in February. A record 300,000 TEUs crossed the port’s wharves in the first quarter, and with the Gemini business of partners Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd being directed through Wilhelmshaven, the volume will continue to grow rapidly through the year, according to Marc-Oliver Hauswald, CEO of JadeWeserPort Wilhelmshaven. “In Germany, Gemini has two hubs, one in Wilhelmshaven and the other in Bremerhaven, so the biggest vessels in their network are now coming to these ports,” Hauswald told the Journal of Commerce at the Transport Logistic exhibition in Munich this week. “This is a game changer for us.” JadeWeserPort is responsible for the marketing and management of the industrial and logistics areas in Wilhelmshaven. “If you multiply first quarter volume by four quarters, you get to 1.2 million TEUs, and with the first Gemini vessel starting in the middle of February, we are expecting to handle over 1 million TEUs,” Hauswald said. The port handled 840,000 TEUs in 2024, and although Hauswald said it was “not very much,” he noted it was a record annual result for the gateway. Wilhelmshaven is Germany’s only deepwater container port. Hapag-Lloyd has held a 30% stake in the container terminal there and a 50% stake in its rail terminal since 2022, with the remaining shares held by Hamburg-based Eurogate, the operator of the container terminal. Another driver of volume for Wilhelmshaven is the China-Europe Express service that provides a direct service with Ningbo routed via the Suez Canal. It was launched by Kawa Shipping in January and offers a 26-day transit time. Kawa started with one 5,000-TEU vessel in January, adding a second last week; a third is scheduled to join the fleet by the end of the year. “The capacity of the vessels are not high compared to the 24,000-TEU ships on Asia-Europe, but even when the big ships call, they have container exchanges similar to 5,000 TEUs, so it is comparable,” Hauswald said. <h3>Automation plans </h3>Automation features prominently in the plans for Wilhelmshaven. The existing port was designed for a capacity of 2.7 million TEUs, but under Eurogate’s automation plans, the handling capacity will increase to 4.5 million TEUs. “In the future, maybe in five or 10 years, the major shipping lines will only go to the ports that have automated systems,” Hauswald said. “In Asia, you can see more and more ports becoming automated because it’s a guarantee of fast and efficient operations at a lower cost.” Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

MUNICH — The establishment of Gemini Cooperation’s hub in Wilhelmshaven has been “a game changer” for the north German port, with container volume rising rapidly since the carrier alliance was launched in February. A record 300,000 TEUs crossed the port’s wharves in the first quarter, and with the Gemini business of partners Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd being directed through Wilhelmshaven, the volume will continue to grow rapidly through the year, according to Marc-Oliver Hauswald, CEO of JadeWeserPort Wilhelmshaven. “In Germany, Gemini has two hubs, one in Wilhelmshaven and the other in Bremerhaven, so the biggest vessels in their network are now coming to these ports,” Hauswald told the Journal of Commerce at the Transport Logistic exhibition in Munich this week. “This is a game changer for us.” JadeWeserPort is responsible for the marketing and management of the industrial and logistics areas in Wilhelmshaven. “If you multiply first quarter volume by four quarters, you get to 1.2 million TEUs, and with the first Gemini vessel starting in the middle of February, we are expecting to handle over 1 million TEUs,” Hauswald said. The port handled 840,000 TEUs in 2024, and although Hauswald said it was “not very much,” he noted it was a record annual result for the gateway. Wilhelmshaven is Germany’s only deepwater container port. Hapag-Lloyd has held a 30% stake in the container terminal there and a 50% stake in its rail terminal since 2022, with the remaining shares held by Hamburg-based Eurogate, the operator of the container terminal. Another driver of volume for Wilhelmshaven is the China-Europe Express service that provides a direct service with Ningbo routed via the Suez Canal. It was launched by Kawa Shipping in January and offers a 26-day transit time. Kawa started with one 5,000-TEU vessel in January, adding a second last week; a third is scheduled to join the fleet by the end of the year. “The capacity of the vessels are not high compared to the 24,000-TEU ships on Asia-Europe, but even when the big ships call, they have container exchanges similar to 5,000 TEUs, so it is comparable,” Hauswald said. Automation plans Automation features prominently in the plans for Wilhelmshaven. The existing port was designed for a capacity of 2.7 million TEUs, but under Eurogate’s automation plans, the handling capacity will increase to 4.5 million TEUs. “In the future, maybe in five or 10 years, the major shipping lines will only go to the ports that have automated systems,” Hauswald said. “In Asia, you can see more and more ports becoming automated because it’s a guarantee of fast and efficient operations at a lower cost.” Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Port infrastructure

Gemini ‘game changer’ for Wilhelmshaven as volume soars

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Trump administration’s tariff policy is yet another milestone that has shaken the US economy over the past 60 years, writes Ted Prince. </div>

The Trump administration’s tariff policy is yet another milestone that has shaken the US economy over the past 60 years, writes Ted Prince.

<div class="phx-topic">Since the announcement of reciprocal tariffs on so-called “Liberation Day” last month, we have been bombarded by conflicting predictions of the possible benefits and disasters that may befall our country, our economy and our industry. What I find interesting is that the history of the past 60 years seems to have been forgotten. While there are many important dates, I will focus on four. <h3>Yanqui go home! </h3>I would start in April 1965, when President Lyndon Johnson deployed the Marines and 82nd Airborne to the Dominican Republic to quell a civil war that broke out after a military junta. While the intervention was intended to protect US nationals, mission creep led to the deployment of over 22,000 American troops. While the invasion successfully reinstalled a conservative government, it increased distrust of the US. At the same time, companies such as Hewlett Packard were rolling out a continuous pipeline of electronic innovations. Their intention was to near-shore manufacturing in Latin America; however, the prevalence of “Yanqui Go Home!” made them look elsewhere. Japan and then the “Four Tigers” (Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea) became the factory sites instead. The Vietnam War had become the first containerized war, and plentiful equipment was available to load back to the US. While electronics required factories, much of the manufacturing was cottage industries. For example, importers of blue jeans were buying from hundreds of small vendors. Ocean carrier consolidators would send pickup trucks into the New Territories to pick up loose articles of clothing (some which no doubt had been made in China) for consolidation at their facilities adjacent to the Kwai Tsing container terminals. <h3>Voluntary restraint </h3>In May 1981, with the American auto industry mired in recession, Japanese car makers agreed to “voluntary export restraint,” which limited exports of passenger cars to the US. However, at the same time, they implemented a strategy of “transplants,” whereby cars were assembled in the US. Some might consider this an example of “reshoring;” however, it is not that simple. Initially, the plants were built in Japan, then disassembled, shipped to the US, and reassembled. Most of the parts (CKD: cars knocked down) came from Japan, so actual US content — other than labor — was minimal. Over time, suppliers proliferated along Interstates 65 and 75 to support these plants. However, many of these were also Japanese transplants. Some were joint ventures with US partners, but many were just US subsidiaries of Japanese manufacturers. Barry Bluestone and Bennett Harrison described this phenomenon in their 1982 work, “The Deindustrialization of America: Plant Closings, Community Abandonment, and the Dismantling of Basic Industry.” They pointed out the irony that the Japanese were successfully investing in US industrial sectors that scarcely a decade ago were said to be declining, uncompetitive, and suffering from deindustrialization. <h3>The Plaza Accord </h3>The Plaza Accord in September 1985 effectively devalued the dollar against other major currencies. Initially, the US trade deficit worsened, as imports rose in price with a devalued dollar. However, the devaluation made US exports cheaper for its trading partners to purchase, which grew the market in goods and services — which are unaccounted for in the current administration’s calculation. <h3>China and the WTO </h3>Finally, in 2001, China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO). What followed was a massive dislocation in trade as China built world-class factories and world-class ports to ship goods throughout the world. Some of those factories have since relocated to nations with cheaper labor. However, a whole ecosystem of suppliers has grown up that supports the manufacturing and assembly of sophisticated products. China’s development took over 30 years. It was no shortcut. It was also the result of extensive industrial policy similar to what Japan and the Four Tigers had done previously. Most importantly, these policies did not deviate for decades and supported a long-term strategy whereby investment could be made with confidence. Our current politics are such that it is impossible to invest in today’s doctrine because it may no longer be applicable by the time the factory opens in three to eight years. In the past 30 years, trade has increased dramatically as a share of gross domestic product (GDP). However, while most economists believe that this has been good for the economy, the general public’s outlook is less sanguine. In large part, this is because trade’s impacts can vary widely: localized changes in jobs (both gains and losses) and reduced prices of goods and services. Freight is inextricably linked to trade. It has transformed our industry. We will no doubt have a ringside seat to the policy that is evolving. Contact Ted Prince at <a href="mailto:ted@tricitiesintermodal.com">ted@tricitiesintermodal.com</a>. </div>

Since the announcement of reciprocal tariffs on so-called “Liberation Day” last month, we have been bombarded by conflicting predictions of the possible benefits and disasters that may befall our country, our economy and our industry. What I find interesting is that the history of the past 60 years seems to have been forgotten. While there are many important dates, I will focus on four. Yanqui go home! I would start in April 1965, when President Lyndon Johnson deployed the Marines and 82nd Airborne to the Dominican Republic to quell a civil war that broke out after a military junta. While the intervention was intended to protect US nationals, mission creep led to the deployment of over 22,000 American troops. While the invasion successfully reinstalled a conservative government, it increased distrust of the US. At the same time, companies such as Hewlett Packard were rolling out a continuous pipeline of electronic innovations. Their intention was to near-shore manufacturing in Latin America; however, the prevalence of “Yanqui Go Home!” made them look elsewhere. Japan and then the “Four Tigers” (Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea) became the factory sites instead. The Vietnam War had become the first containerized war, and plentiful equipment was available to load back to the US. While electronics required factories, much of the manufacturing was cottage industries. For example, importers of blue jeans were buying from hundreds of small vendors. Ocean carrier consolidators would send pickup trucks into the New Territories to pick up loose articles of clothing (some which no doubt had been made in China) for consolidation at their facilities adjacent to the Kwai Tsing container terminals. Voluntary restraint In May 1981, with the American auto industry mired in recession, Japanese car makers agreed to “voluntary export restraint,” which limited exports of passenger cars to the US. However, at the same time, they implemented a strategy of “transplants,” whereby cars were assembled in the US. Some might consider this an example of “reshoring;” however, it is not that simple. Initially, the plants were built in Japan, then disassembled, shipped to the US, and reassembled. Most of the parts (CKD: cars knocked down) came from Japan, so actual US content — other than labor — was minimal. Over time, suppliers proliferated along Interstates 65 and 75 to support these plants. However, many of these were also Japanese transplants. Some were joint ventures with US partners, but many were just US subsidiaries of Japanese manufacturers. Barry Bluestone and Bennett Harrison described this phenomenon in their 1982 work, “The Deindustrialization of America: Plant Closings, Community Abandonment, and the Dismantling of Basic Industry.” They pointed out the irony that the Japanese were successfully investing in US industrial sectors that scarcely a decade ago were said to be declining, uncompetitive, and suffering from deindustrialization. The Plaza Accord The Plaza Accord in September 1985 effectively devalued the dollar against other major currencies. Initially, the US trade deficit worsened, as imports rose in price with a devalued dollar. However, the devaluation made US exports cheaper for its trading partners to purchase, which grew the market in goods and services — which are unaccounted for in the current administration’s calculation. China and the WTO Finally, in 2001, China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO). What followed was a massive dislocation in trade as China built world-class factories and world-class ports to ship goods throughout the world. Some of those factories have since relocated to nations with cheaper labor. However, a whole ecosystem of suppliers has grown up that supports the manufacturing and assembly of sophisticated products. China’s development took over 30 years. It was no shortcut. It was also the result of extensive industrial policy similar to what Japan and the Four Tigers had done previously. Most importantly, these policies did not deviate for decades and supported a long-term strategy whereby investment could be made with confidence. Our current politics are such that it is impossible to invest in today’s doctrine because it may no longer be applicable by the time the factory opens in three to eight years. In the past 30 years, trade has increased dramatically as a share of gross domestic product (GDP). However, while most economists believe that this has been good for the economy, the general public’s outlook is less sanguine. In large part, this is because trade’s impacts can vary widely: localized changes in jobs (both gains and losses) and reduced prices of goods and services. Freight is inextricably linked to trade. It has transformed our industry. We will no doubt have a ringside seat to the policy that is evolving. Contact Ted Prince at ted@tricitiesintermodal.com .

Supply chain

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

A history lesson while we watch current US trade policy unfold

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The new global trade environment has significantly increased supply chain challenges, notably the arbitrary nature of the implementation of US tariffs.</div>

The new global trade environment has significantly increased supply chain challenges, notably the arbitrary nature of the implementation of US tariffs.

<div class="phx-topic">This commentary is not specifically about tariffs, or about capacity shortages or surpluses or what to expect if your shipment happens to be transferred to a Chinese vessel or service — whatever that means today. Instead, it considers a related question: How do supply chain practitioners balance demand and supply planning in the current environment of uncertainty? To start, let’s assume you are a medium-size importer into the US from any Asian country subject to tariffs nominally above 20%. At this stage, you have called on the more recent lessons from the first term of Donald Trump and from the COVID-19 pandemic. These will include, but are not limited to, some form of cost-sharing of the increase, somewhere between you absorbing it all to the supplier wearing the whole lot. If you are buying in US dollars, then your supplier is already suffering and will have less room to maneuver. To counter this, a temporary option could be to switch to buying in your supplier’s local currency. This will have some appeal to your supplier as they are possibly overweight in the dollar and have actual costs in local currency. A lot will depend on your view of the trajectory of the dollar. However, two notes of caution: You will still have transaction costs when converting from the US dollar to the local currency, and depending on the country you source from, you may face capital controls if you need to get money back. Furthermore, changing back and forth in currencies has administrative risks with potential payment delays and errors. No doubt there will be a suggestion of suppliers providing lower-than-correct value invoices and some form of offline reconciliation. But doing the right thing in the face of malevolence has its longer-term reward. And besides, the penalties do not merit the risk. <h3>‘Roulette game’ </h3>You will have reduced your destination-side inventory to the degree of ensuring safety stocks. If you managed to get ahead of the tariff increases, you will be sitting on volume that requires warehousing. But as you have avoided tariffs to some degree, this will maintain your competitiveness — despite the increased warehousing and inventory working capital cost — assuming your competitors source from outside the US However, the new environment has significantly increased challenges. First, the rate at which tariff levels are changing makes supply planning a roulette game. This is primarily due to the arbitrary nature of their implementation, unlike previous changes that gave some degree of leeway for orders already in process and/or on the water. Equally challenging is the rollercoaster nature of the degree of tariff moves both up and down. Finally, the tactical response <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/scaled-back-ustr-port-tariff-to-hit-chinese-carriers-hardest-5987549">to avoid Chinese-built, -owned, and -operated ships</a> will be a nightmare for all logisticians. This is particularly important because carrier and vessel choice is largely transactional at an operational level based on guidance from sourcing, so the likelihood of an error costing thousands is high. Where does that leave beneficial cargo owners (BCOs) in deciding which tactics to adopt? Frankly, for the foreseeable future, you will need to choose your poison. The somewhat binary options of manufacturing and storing at origin have appeal, particularly if the <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/air-cargo-volumes-fall-on-trans-pacific-as-us-de-minimis-changes-loom-5993599">removal of de minimis</a> has a projected impact of freeing up air freight space, allowing cheaper (but not cheap) delivery for urgent orders. Alternatively, having the right stocks in place at the right time will do much for customer relations and, intuitively, result in less likelihood of discounting. The downside will be increased costs that will depend on the cost of the tariff versus your sale price. This will mean you either absorb the increase, thus reducing margins and profitability, or try to pass it on to consumers. The final kicker to this issue is consumer demand. With quite consistent indicators from many sources — Goldman Sachs, the International Monetary Fund, the University of Michigan and others— indicating at best a slowdown in all economies, the likelihood of stagflation emerging in the US, or at best/worst the return of inflation, is actually your greatest risk. Because if consumers truly defer consumption expecting lower prices through price reduction and/or discounting to stimulate demand (stagflation), or cannot afford to spend or increase credit card debt (inflation), then these two factors will cause greater headaches than your deliberations on supply planning. John McCauley, formerly a long-standing vice president of transportation and logistics at Cargill, now consults for shippers. Contact him at <a href="mailto:john-mccauley1@outlook.com">john-mccauley1@outlook.com</a>.</div>

This commentary is not specifically about tariffs, or about capacity shortages or surpluses or what to expect if your shipment happens to be transferred to a Chinese vessel or service — whatever that means today. Instead, it considers a related question: How do supply chain practitioners balance demand and supply planning in the current environment of uncertainty? To start, let’s assume you are a medium-size importer into the US from any Asian country subject to tariffs nominally above 20%. At this stage, you have called on the more recent lessons from the first term of Donald Trump and from the COVID-19 pandemic. These will include, but are not limited to, some form of cost-sharing of the increase, somewhere between you absorbing it all to the supplier wearing the whole lot. If you are buying in US dollars, then your supplier is already suffering and will have less room to maneuver. To counter this, a temporary option could be to switch to buying in your supplier’s local currency. This will have some appeal to your supplier as they are possibly overweight in the dollar and have actual costs in local currency. A lot will depend on your view of the trajectory of the dollar. However, two notes of caution: You will still have transaction costs when converting from the US dollar to the local currency, and depending on the country you source from, you may face capital controls if you need to get money back. Furthermore, changing back and forth in currencies has administrative risks with potential payment delays and errors. No doubt there will be a suggestion of suppliers providing lower-than-correct value invoices and some form of offline reconciliation. But doing the right thing in the face of malevolence has its longer-term reward. And besides, the penalties do not merit the risk. ‘Roulette game’ You will have reduced your destination-side inventory to the degree of ensuring safety stocks. If you managed to get ahead of the tariff increases, you will be sitting on volume that requires warehousing. But as you have avoided tariffs to some degree, this will maintain your competitiveness — despite the increased warehousing and inventory working capital cost — assuming your competitors source from outside the US However, the new environment has significantly increased challenges. First, the rate at which tariff levels are changing makes supply planning a roulette game. This is primarily due to the arbitrary nature of their implementation, unlike previous changes that gave some degree of leeway for orders already in process and/or on the water. Equally challenging is the rollercoaster nature of the degree of tariff moves both up and down. Finally, the tactical response to avoid Chinese-built, -owned, and -operated ships will be a nightmare for all logisticians. This is particularly important because carrier and vessel choice is largely transactional at an operational level based on guidance from sourcing, so the likelihood of an error costing thousands is high. Where does that leave beneficial cargo owners (BCOs) in deciding which tactics to adopt? Frankly, for the foreseeable future, you will need to choose your poison. The somewhat binary options of manufacturing and storing at origin have appeal, particularly if the removal of de minimis has a projected impact of freeing up air freight space, allowing cheaper (but not cheap) delivery for urgent orders. Alternatively, having the right stocks in place at the right time will do much for customer relations and, intuitively, result in less likelihood of discounting. The downside will be increased costs that will depend on the cost of the tariff versus your sale price. This will mean you either absorb the increase, thus reducing margins and profitability, or try to pass it on to consumers. The final kicker to this issue is consumer demand. With quite consistent indicators from many sources — Goldman Sachs, the International Monetary Fund, the University of Michigan and others— indicating at best a slowdown in all economies, the likelihood of stagflation emerging in the US, or at best/worst the return of inflation, is actually your greatest risk. Because if consumers truly defer consumption expecting lower prices through price reduction and/or discounting to stimulate demand (stagflation), or cannot afford to spend or increase credit card debt (inflation), then these two factors will cause greater headaches than your deliberations on supply planning. John McCauley, formerly a long-standing vice president of transportation and logistics at Cargill, now consults for shippers. Contact him at john-mccauley1@outlook.com .

Navigating the current supply chain is a matter of choosing your poison

Ningbo

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Shanghai

Hong Kong

Portcast reports on port congestion by processing and analyzing rich automatic identification system (AIS) data to determine vessels’ behavior and speed on the way to a given destination port and generate a congestion index for each port. The congestion tracker includes ships that do not have estimated times of arrival or are waiting at anchorage and uses multiple human-monitored data sources to make corrections around outliers. [Portcast](https://portcast.io/solutions/port-congestion-tracker)

China ports vessels waiting to berth (Portcast)

China port congestion number of vessels waiting (Portcast) Gateway

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Ocean carrier profits this year are expected to be less than half of what they were in 2024 amid an uncertain macroeconomic outlook. </div>

Ocean carrier profits this year are expected to be less than half of what they were in 2024 amid an uncertain macroeconomic outlook.

<div class="phx-topic">The container shipping industry is on track for a profitable year, although not as strong as 2024, as higher operating expenses dampen rate momentum driven by tariff uncertainty, according to analysts. Among nine publicly traded ocean carriers, revenue for 2025 is expected to reach $138.2 billion, according to Capital IQ Estimates, down from $155.5 billion reported for 2024. Capital IQ is a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. The main driver for last year’s results were steadily strengthening freight rates spurred by resilient consumer and industrial demand, with the Platts Global Container Index rising from $2,300 per standard container to almost $5,000 by the end of 2024. And while rates remain elevated, particularly in the trans-Pacific, the outlook for earnings is dimmer. Industry-wide net income is expected to be $11.6 billion in 2025, compared with $28.6 billion in 2024, data from Capital IQ Estimates shows. After most carriers reported first-quarter earnings for 2025, analysts trimmed collective earnings forecasts for ocean carriers by $600 million since the beginning of April. Even with the recent tariff turmoil, most ocean carriers saw few, if any, market catalysts to create a repeat of 2024. Other industry watchers also see a tougher comparison for ocean carriers this year. Alphaliner noted the average first-quarter operating margin for ocean carriers fell to 18.1%, the lowest in four quarters. Maritime consultancy Drewry sees operating profit for the container shipping industry falling to $20 billion this year, down from about $50 billion in 2024. Ocean carriers are flagging higher operating expenses in 2025 as ships get delayed and the costs of container repositioning become more burdensome. Hapag-Lloyd highlighted a 9% increase in handling and haulage costs for the first quarter, primarily because of having to secure storage for empty containers and higher drayage expenses for door moves. <h3>Muted rate outlook </h3>While higher freight rates can offset those increases, carrier chief executives remain cautious on how far the current rally will go. Maersk Chief Executive Vincent Clerc offered a forecast of global container demand ranging anywhere from a decline of 1% to growth of 4% during the company’s second-quarter earnings call on May 8, down from a forecast of 4% in February. Clerc said President Donald Trump’s trade policies are forcing more Maersk customers to reconsider where they source goods. While some shippers highly dependent on China are looking to frontload goods, others are drawing inventory in North America or looking at how to exit China. “The increased macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties since we shared our guidance in February inevitably affects our outlook for the rest of the year, especially on the back of the escalation we saw of the US-China trade tensions as well as the unresolved questions around the other tariffs currently under the 90-day reprieve,” Clerc said. Even though container freight bookings out of China saw a resurgence following the 90-day tariff reprieve, Hapag-Lloyd Chief Executive Rolf Habben Jansen said during a May 14 earnings call he expects only a “little bit of a surge” over the next two or three months. He said Hapag-Lloyd is maintaining its current 2025 outlook based on the “assumption that we expect to see freight rates declining based on the trends that we have seen in the market over the last couple of months.” “I think [the] demand trend for 2025 at the moment is pretty uncertain,” Habben Jansen said. “We see new developments every day. I think the only thing we know for sure is that the first quarter was pretty good.” Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The container shipping industry is on track for a profitable year, although not as strong as 2024, as higher operating expenses dampen rate momentum driven by tariff uncertainty, according to analysts. Among nine publicly traded ocean carriers, revenue for 2025 is expected to reach $138.2 billion, according to Capital IQ Estimates, down from $155.5 billion reported for 2024. Capital IQ is a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. The main driver for last year’s results were steadily strengthening freight rates spurred by resilient consumer and industrial demand, with the Platts Global Container Index rising from $2,300 per standard container to almost $5,000 by the end of 2024. And while rates remain elevated, particularly in the trans-Pacific, the outlook for earnings is dimmer. Industry-wide net income is expected to be $11.6 billion in 2025, compared with $28.6 billion in 2024, data from Capital IQ Estimates shows. After most carriers reported first-quarter earnings for 2025, analysts trimmed collective earnings forecasts for ocean carriers by $600 million since the beginning of April. Even with the recent tariff turmoil, most ocean carriers saw few, if any, market catalysts to create a repeat of 2024. Other industry watchers also see a tougher comparison for ocean carriers this year. Alphaliner noted the average first-quarter operating margin for ocean carriers fell to 18.1%, the lowest in four quarters. Maritime consultancy Drewry sees operating profit for the container shipping industry falling to $20 billion this year, down from about $50 billion in 2024. Ocean carriers are flagging higher operating expenses in 2025 as ships get delayed and the costs of container repositioning become more burdensome. Hapag-Lloyd highlighted a 9% increase in handling and haulage costs for the first quarter, primarily because of having to secure storage for empty containers and higher drayage expenses for door moves. Muted rate outlook While higher freight rates can offset those increases, carrier chief executives remain cautious on how far the current rally will go. Maersk Chief Executive Vincent Clerc offered a forecast of global container demand ranging anywhere from a decline of 1% to growth of 4% during the company’s second-quarter earnings call on May 8, down from a forecast of 4% in February. Clerc said President Donald Trump’s trade policies are forcing more Maersk customers to reconsider where they source goods. While some shippers highly dependent on China are looking to frontload goods, others are drawing inventory in North America or looking at how to exit China. “The increased macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties since we shared our guidance in February inevitably affects our outlook for the rest of the year, especially on the back of the escalation we saw of the US-China trade tensions as well as the unresolved questions around the other tariffs currently under the 90-day reprieve,” Clerc said. Even though container freight bookings out of China saw a resurgence following the 90-day tariff reprieve, Hapag-Lloyd Chief Executive Rolf Habben Jansen said during a May 14 earnings call he expects only a “little bit of a surge” over the next two or three months. He said Hapag-Lloyd is maintaining its current 2025 outlook based on the “assumption that we expect to see freight rates declining based on the trends that we have seen in the market over the last couple of months.” “I think [the] demand trend for 2025 at the moment is pretty uncertain,” Habben Jansen said. “We see new developments every day. I think the only thing we know for sure is that the first quarter was pretty good.” Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Global uncertainty to erode ocean carrier profits in 2025

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">That the port is the largest transshipment hub makes it convenient for carriers to transship cargo as they redeploy vessels from European and other long-haul trades to US-focused services. </div>

That the port is the largest transshipment hub makes it convenient for carriers to transship cargo as they redeploy vessels from European and other long-haul trades to US-focused services.

<div class="phx-topic">Singapore has joined Shanghai, the world’s second-busiest and busiest ports, respectively, in facing congestion driven by a rush of exports to the US during a 90-day tariff cooldown, according to forwarder and carrier sources. Operations in Singapore have been “heavily disrupted,” with transshipment cargo delayed by up to two weeks, forwarder Kuehne + Nagel said in an update Wednesday on its SeaExplorer visibility platform. According to a Monday update from container carrier Hapag-Lloyd, ships are waiting up to three days to berth at Singapore’s primary terminals due to vessel bunching and congestion. That Singapore is the world’s largest transshipment hub makes it convenient for carriers to transship cargo as they redeploy vessels from European and other long-haul trades to US-focused services. Congestion at other Asian ports is also contributing to a backlog of ships in Singapore. “PSA Singapore has seen a high concentration of container vessel arrivals in recent weeks, attributable to several factors, including some service reconfigurations by shipping lines in response to various business changes and global issues to optimize their network operations, as well as ripple effects from congestion and delays at other locations,” a PSA spokesperson told the Journal of Commerce. The spokesperson said the port’s spare capacity and resources are being utilized to mitigate the impact of the rise in vessel arrivals. <h3>Shanghai congestion worsens</h3>The situation has also deteriorated in Shanghai, with carriers reporting wait times of up to five days, compared with about three days last week, according to K+N. The largest global forwarder said shippers are diverting cargo away from Shanghai to Ningbo to avoid delays, slowing operations in Ningbo. Similarly, congestion has worsened at Port Klang, Malaysia’s gateway terminal complex, with “heavily disrupted operations” and vessel wait times of up to three days, K+N said in its SeaExplorer update. Tan Hua Joo, co-founder of shipping data platform Linerlytica, told the Journal of Commerce, “Both Singapore and Port Klang are experiencing longer berthing delays due to heavy vessel traffic and bunching of arrivals due to delays at upstream ports.” And in South Asia, the ports of Colombo, Sri Lanka; Mundra, India; and Chittagong, Bangladesh, “are also seeing increased waiting times at the moment,” Hua Joo said. Vessel schedules from Ocean Network Express (ONE) this week provide an example of how the additional pressures in Singapore and Port Klang are impacting network fluidity. ONE’s 3,000-TEU Wan Hai 331, deployed on its Japan-Straits-Malaysia service, was four days late departing Hong Kong last Friday, but berthing delays in Singapore and Port Klang have increased these delays to eight days, with the ship scheduled to arrive in Singapore on June 3. Schedules for June and July indicate ONE has lengthened the estimated time of arrival from four days to up to seven days from Hong Kong to Singapore for a raft of vessels operating on intra-Asia and Europe-Mediterranean services to account for berthing delays in Singapore. Other ports in Asia, including Tianjin, Qingdao, Shenzhen, Nansha and Hong Kong in China; Busan, South Korea; Yokohama, Japan; Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam; and Manila, Philippines, are also dealing with declining port performance, K+N said. The number of vessels waiting at key ports in Asia has been trending upward again in the last two weeks after plunging from a high at the start of May, according to Portcast’s ship tracking index. There were 62 ships waiting to berth at Shanghai on Wednesday, approximately double the number in mid-May. The vessel backlog outside Singapore hit 55 on May 14, before plunging as low as 23 on May 21, Portcast data shows. <h3>Attention turns to US West Coast</h3>During Evergreen Marine’s annual general meeting Thursday, chairman Chang Yen-yi said port congestion would spread to US West Coast ports next month as vessels from Asia, including extra capacity that carriers are deploying during the current tariff pause, start arriving at Los Angeles and Long Beach. Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, is confident that the nation’s busiest US container gateway is ready to handle what he expects to be a relatively minor surge in volumes compared with previous sudden demand increases, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic. “You won’t see a deluge of freight here at the Port of Los Angeles,” Seroka said in a May 18 briefing. “We will not be caught off guard.” Similar to during the pandemic, the sharpest limits to capacity during an import surge will be outside the truck gates, not at the marine terminals. As containers exit the ports, the influx of international intermodal shipments will test rail car supply, and importers and consignees could face less availability of warehousing and chassis. Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>. </div>

Singapore has joined Shanghai, the world’s second-busiest and busiest ports, respectively, in facing congestion driven by a rush of exports to the US during a 90-day tariff cooldown, according to forwarder and carrier sources. Operations in Singapore have been “heavily disrupted,” with transshipment cargo delayed by up to two weeks, forwarder Kuehne + Nagel said in an update Wednesday on its SeaExplorer visibility platform. According to a Monday update from container carrier Hapag-Lloyd, ships are waiting up to three days to berth at Singapore’s primary terminals due to vessel bunching and congestion. That Singapore is the world’s largest transshipment hub makes it convenient for carriers to transship cargo as they redeploy vessels from European and other long-haul trades to US-focused services. Congestion at other Asian ports is also contributing to a backlog of ships in Singapore. “PSA Singapore has seen a high concentration of container vessel arrivals in recent weeks, attributable to several factors, including some service reconfigurations by shipping lines in response to various business changes and global issues to optimize their network operations, as well as ripple effects from congestion and delays at other locations,” a PSA spokesperson told the Journal of Commerce. The spokesperson said the port’s spare capacity and resources are being utilized to mitigate the impact of the rise in vessel arrivals. Shanghai congestion worsens The situation has also deteriorated in Shanghai, with carriers reporting wait times of up to five days, compared with about three days last week, according to K+N. The largest global forwarder said shippers are diverting cargo away from Shanghai to Ningbo to avoid delays, slowing operations in Ningbo. Similarly, congestion has worsened at Port Klang, Malaysia’s gateway terminal complex, with “heavily disrupted operations” and vessel wait times of up to three days, K+N said in its SeaExplorer update. Tan Hua Joo, co-founder of shipping data platform Linerlytica, told the Journal of Commerce, “Both Singapore and Port Klang are experiencing longer berthing delays due to heavy vessel traffic and bunching of arrivals due to delays at upstream ports.” And in South Asia, the ports of Colombo, Sri Lanka; Mundra, India; and Chittagong, Bangladesh, “are also seeing increased waiting times at the moment,” Hua Joo said. Vessel schedules from Ocean Network Express (ONE) this week provide an example of how the additional pressures in Singapore and Port Klang are impacting network fluidity. ONE’s 3,000-TEU Wan Hai 331, deployed on its Japan-Straits-Malaysia service, was four days late departing Hong Kong last Friday, but berthing delays in Singapore and Port Klang have increased these delays to eight days, with the ship scheduled to arrive in Singapore on June 3. Schedules for June and July indicate ONE has lengthened the estimated time of arrival from four days to up to seven days from Hong Kong to Singapore for a raft of vessels operating on intra-Asia and Europe-Mediterranean services to account for berthing delays in Singapore. Other ports in Asia, including Tianjin, Qingdao, Shenzhen, Nansha and Hong Kong in China; Busan, South Korea; Yokohama, Japan; Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam; and Manila, Philippines, are also dealing with declining port performance, K+N said. The number of vessels waiting at key ports in Asia has been trending upward again in the last two weeks after plunging from a high at the start of May, according to Portcast’s ship tracking index. There were 62 ships waiting to berth at Shanghai on Wednesday, approximately double the number in mid-May. The vessel backlog outside Singapore hit 55 on May 14, before plunging as low as 23 on May 21, Portcast data shows. Attention turns to US West Coast During Evergreen Marine’s annual general meeting Thursday, chairman Chang Yen-yi said port congestion would spread to US West Coast ports next month as vessels from Asia, including extra capacity that carriers are deploying during the current tariff pause, start arriving at Los Angeles and Long Beach. Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, is confident that the nation’s busiest US container gateway is ready to handle what he expects to be a relatively minor surge in volumes compared with previous sudden demand increases, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic. “You won’t see a deluge of freight here at the Port of Los Angeles,” Seroka said in a May 18 briefing. “We will not be caught off guard.” Similar to during the pandemic, the sharpest limits to capacity during an import surge will be outside the truck gates, not at the marine terminals. As containers exit the ports, the influx of international intermodal shipments will test rail car supply, and importers and consignees could face less availability of warehousing and chassis. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

Trans-Pacific

Asia port disruption wave reaches Singapore

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">To achieve the promised 95% on-time performance, J.B. Hunt will require a strong collaboration with BNSF Railway and Grupo México Transportes to navigate challenges in cross-border rail.</div>

To achieve the promised 95% on-time performance, J.B. Hunt will require a strong collaboration with BNSF Railway and Grupo México Transportes to navigate challenges in cross-border rail.

<div class="phx-topic">J.B. Hunt Transport Services, BNSF Railway and Mexican rail operator Grupo Mexico Transportes (GMXT, parent company of Ferromex) are launching a cross-border intermodal service pledging at least 95% on-time performance, underscoring rising demand for truck-like dependable intermodal service from Mexico to the US. The Quantum de Mexico service was launched Friday, starting with the formal process of reaching out to current and potential shippers, gauging interest and their delivery standards. It’s a process that could take a few months to complete, the company said. The 95% on-time guarantee will be measured differently based on criteria established with each shipper, but in general, J.B. Hunt will deliver cargo within a delivery window, much like a window a homeowner might see waiting for a plumber or HVAC technician. “Each standard operating procedure for Quantum de Mexico will be tailored to the customer,” said Spencer Frazier, executive vice president of sales and marketing at J.B. Hunt. “We will design the service based on customer needs at point of delivery.” The Quantum de Mexico service — based on the US Quantum service launched by J.B. Hunt and BNSF in 2023 — will connect Guadalajara, Mexico City, and Monterrey to Chicago, Dallas, and parts of the US West Coast and East Coast which have yet to be named. Quantum de Mexico will fuel rising competition for cross-border freight, both in intermodal and trucking markets. On the rails, Quantum will compete with Union Pacific Railroad’s (UP’s) Falcon Premium and Canadian Pacific Kansas City’s (CPKC’s) Mexico Midwest Express. J.B. Hunt’s direct competitors are Hub Group and Schneider National. Hub Group has partnered with UP’s Falcon Premium and launched a <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/hub-group-boosts-cross-border-business-in-jv-with-mexican-dray-carrier-5745355">joint venture</a> with Mexican drayage provider Easo. Schneider is the primary customer of CPKC’s cross-border services. The intermodal providers all compete with long-established truckload options. Trucking handles most of the cross-border freight, with intermodal rail accounting for about 10% to 15% of dry freight business, according to the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics. The total number of trucks entering the US from Mexico increased 3.5% in 2024, rising to 7.6 million. Just eight border crossings handled 92.8% of those trucks. Those border crossings are a narrow funnel that is getting tighter as cross-border volumes rise. <h3>Where it gets complicated </h3>Shippers are looking for new solutions and ways to avoid delays and speed cross-border shipments, and time-sensitive intermodal, once a contradiction in terms, is now a real option, J.B. Hunt, BNSF and GMXT told the Journal of Commerce. “In Mexico, potential issues with over-the-road capacity and lack of infrastructure investment are driving our customer to say, ‘Hey, we need something different,” Frazier said in an interview. “It’s not just consistent capacity; it’s the high level of service.” The need for speed in replenishment and to avoid penalties for missing delivery deadlines continues to drive changes in supply chains, creating opportunities for services such as Quantum, which will be up to one day faster than regular intermodal service. In the US, Quantum service is more expensive than regular intermodal but not as expensive as expedited trains. The nature of the US-Mexico border makes delivering 95% reliability significantly tougher than hitting such a target on US domestic moves. For example, Mexican regulations allow an electronic submission of customs documents, known as pedimentos, but also require a physical copy to be delivered. That requires a runner to hand over documents for a stamp before a container can be loaded or rejected. Additionally, customs offices are open 24 hours in Monterrey, but others in less populated cities close outside of standard business hours. Quantum de Mexico will set up processes with each customer to clear customs hurdles before freight is loaded, Frazier said. “We will have specific operational spots at GMXT terminals [in Mexico] for Quantum shipments at a schedule dictated by the customer,” he said. “We will have someone from GMXT in Fort Worth, Texas, for 24/7 oversight of Quantum shipments.” J.B. Hunt’s partnership with BNSF includes a co-located office in Fort Worth, Texas, where employees of both companies monitor Quantum loads 24 hours a day. Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>. Senior Editor William B. Cassidy contributed to this report. </div>

J.B. Hunt Transport Services, BNSF Railway and Mexican rail operator Grupo Mexico Transportes (GMXT, parent company of Ferromex) are launching a cross-border intermodal service pledging at least 95% on-time performance, underscoring rising demand for truck-like dependable intermodal service from Mexico to the US. The Quantum de Mexico service was launched Friday, starting with the formal process of reaching out to current and potential shippers, gauging interest and their delivery standards. It’s a process that could take a few months to complete, the company said. The 95% on-time guarantee will be measured differently based on criteria established with each shipper, but in general, J.B. Hunt will deliver cargo within a delivery window, much like a window a homeowner might see waiting for a plumber or HVAC technician. “Each standard operating procedure for Quantum de Mexico will be tailored to the customer,” said Spencer Frazier, executive vice president of sales and marketing at J.B. Hunt. “We will design the service based on customer needs at point of delivery.” The Quantum de Mexico service — based on the US Quantum service launched by J.B. Hunt and BNSF in 2023 — will connect Guadalajara, Mexico City, and Monterrey to Chicago, Dallas, and parts of the US West Coast and East Coast which have yet to be named. Quantum de Mexico will fuel rising competition for cross-border freight, both in intermodal and trucking markets. On the rails, Quantum will compete with Union Pacific Railroad’s (UP’s) Falcon Premium and Canadian Pacific Kansas City’s (CPKC’s) Mexico Midwest Express. J.B. Hunt’s direct competitors are Hub Group and Schneider National. Hub Group has partnered with UP’s Falcon Premium and launched a joint venture with Mexican drayage provider Easo. Schneider is the primary customer of CPKC’s cross-border services. The intermodal providers all compete with long-established truckload options. Trucking handles most of the cross-border freight, with intermodal rail accounting for about 10% to 15% of dry freight business, according to the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics. The total number of trucks entering the US from Mexico increased 3.5% in 2024, rising to 7.6 million. Just eight border crossings handled 92.8% of those trucks. Those border crossings are a narrow funnel that is getting tighter as cross-border volumes rise. Where it gets complicated Shippers are looking for new solutions and ways to avoid delays and speed cross-border shipments, and time-sensitive intermodal, once a contradiction in terms, is now a real option, J.B. Hunt, BNSF and GMXT told the Journal of Commerce. “In Mexico, potential issues with over-the-road capacity and lack of infrastructure investment are driving our customer to say, ‘Hey, we need something different,” Frazier said in an interview. “It’s not just consistent capacity; it’s the high level of service.” The need for speed in replenishment and to avoid penalties for missing delivery deadlines continues to drive changes in supply chains, creating opportunities for services such as Quantum, which will be up to one day faster than regular intermodal service. In the US, Quantum service is more expensive than regular intermodal but not as expensive as expedited trains. The nature of the US-Mexico border makes delivering 95% reliability significantly tougher than hitting such a target on US domestic moves. For example, Mexican regulations allow an electronic submission of customs documents, known as pedimentos, but also require a physical copy to be delivered. That requires a runner to hand over documents for a stamp before a container can be loaded or rejected. Additionally, customs offices are open 24 hours in Monterrey, but others in less populated cities close outside of standard business hours. Quantum de Mexico will set up processes with each customer to clear customs hurdles before freight is loaded, Frazier said. “We will have specific operational spots at GMXT terminals [in Mexico] for Quantum shipments at a schedule dictated by the customer,” he said. “We will have someone from GMXT in Fort Worth, Texas, for 24/7 oversight of Quantum shipments.” J.B. Hunt’s partnership with BNSF includes a co-located office in Fort Worth, Texas, where employees of both companies monitor Quantum loads 24 hours a day. Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com . Senior Editor William B. Cassidy contributed to this report.

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The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

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Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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Filling the Supply Chain Education Gap with LTL Education Courses

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<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Carriers are looking to ride the higher rates as long as they can before the fresh vessel capacity that is making its way to the trans-Pacific begins to dull the momentum.</div>

Carriers are looking to ride the higher rates as long as they can before the fresh vessel capacity that is making its way to the trans-Pacific begins to dull the momentum.

<div class="phx-topic">Trans-Pacific spot rates are rising at a faster clip than the pandemic-linked boom in the spring of 2021 amid a spike in imports from Asia driven by the temporary pause in tariff hikes put in place by the Trump administration. An ocean carrier executive said liners are being “very aggressive on spot rates” to capitalize on the cargo surge, with so-called general rate increases (GRIs) implemented on June 1 and two other price hikes planned for mid-June and July 1. A half-dozen forwarders told the Journal of Commerce that spot rates this week are in the low $6,000s per FEU to the US West Coast and low $7,000s to the East Coast. Rate indexes, which take a week or two to capture the full rate gains, still showed a big jump this week. Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, listed the spot rate from Asia to the West Coast as of Monday at $5,600 per FEU, up 33% from just last week. The East Coast rate was $6,500 per FEU, up 25%. Platts data shows the West Coast spot rate has rocketed 173% higher since mid-April, with the East Coast rate doubling over that time. By comparison, as US imports from Asia began to climb in May 2021 following the COVID-related slump, spot rates to the US rose about 20% from mid-April. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="e8c13a3e-9f5a-412f-8741-adbf5e1a7779"></dynamic-object></div>Carriers are looking to ride the higher rates as long as they can before the fresh vessel capacity that is making its way to the trans-Pacific in the form of extra-loaders and new services begins to dull the momentum. “It seems like the next [rate] increase or two will be the last ones,” said Jason Cook, CEO of Ardent Global Logistics. “I’m getting the impression that this capacity is already finding its way into the trade.” The new capacity is especially significant on the trade lanes from Asia to the West Coast. Carriers in June have increased capacity by 12.8% and plan another 16.5% hike in July, Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis, said in his Sunday Spotlight newsletter. “In total, this is an injection of 397,000 TEUs of capacity in June/July compared to the situation just three weeks ago,” Murphy said. <h3>Import surge coming to Southern California </h3>The surge in imports from Asia is tied to the Trump administration’s time-limited pause in higher tariffs. The pauses are expiring over the next two months — one on July 9 on imports from most nations except for China, and another in mid-August on the huge <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/federal-court-ruling-blocking-tariffs-resets-shipping-outlook-6013402">145% tariff on imports from China that has been reduced to 30%</a>. The White House says it is busy negotiating new trade deals in the meantime. As those deadlines approach, the import spike is manifesting itself in the Los Angeles-Long Beach port complex, which handles about 50% of US imports from Asia. According to data from both ports, the Southern California complex is projecting a huge volume of imports over the next few weeks. Los Angeles, which this week will handle about 92,000 TEUs of laden imports, is forecasting more than 103,000 TEUs next week and 112,000 TEUs in the week of June 15. Long Beach, which will handle about 75,000 import TEUs next week, is projecting imports of more than 90,000 TEUs per week during the last three weeks of June. “Clearly shippers are trying to catch up on lost time out of China,” one forwarder said. Bookings out of Southeast Asia are quite strong, while bookings from China, which spiked after the May 12 “pause” announcement, are now “slightly weaker, but nothing that will throw the trade off,” said James Caradonna, executive vice president of the forwarder Spedag America. <h3>Short, but intense, peak season expected </h3>Based on the significant level of frontloading that has already taken place from Southeast Asia and China, forwarders say this year’s peak shipping season will start earlier and be noticeably shorter than typical peak seasons, which run from August through October. “The peak season has already started,” said Christian Sur, executive vice president of ocean freight contract logistics at the forwarder Unique Logistics International. “The peak of the peak will be in the second half of June.” For that reason, carriers are attempting to maintain cargo flow and bookings from their core customers so that when imports fall off, liners will maintain what business is left for the remainder of the year, the carrier executive said. Carriers right now are slow-walking peak season surcharges (PSSs), which are applied to cargo owners’ service contracts and forwarders’ named-account (NAC) rates, even while they announce additional spot rate increases, the executive said. “The lines are very cautious about PSSs...,” the source said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>. Contact Laura Robb at <a href="mailto:laura.robb@spglobal.com">laura.robb@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Trans-Pacific spot rates are rising at a faster clip than the pandemic-linked boom in the spring of 2021 amid a spike in imports from Asia driven by the temporary pause in tariff hikes put in place by the Trump administration. An ocean carrier executive said liners are being “very aggressive on spot rates” to capitalize on the cargo surge, with so-called general rate increases (GRIs) implemented on June 1 and two other price hikes planned for mid-June and July 1. A half-dozen forwarders told the Journal of Commerce that spot rates this week are in the low $6,000s per FEU to the US West Coast and low $7,000s to the East Coast. Rate indexes, which take a week or two to capture the full rate gains, still showed a big jump this week. Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, listed the spot rate from Asia to the West Coast as of Monday at $5,600 per FEU, up 33% from just last week. The East Coast rate was $6,500 per FEU, up 25%. Platts data shows the West Coast spot rate has rocketed 173% higher since mid-April, with the East Coast rate doubling over that time. By comparison, as US imports from Asia began to climb in May 2021 following the COVID-related slump, spot rates to the US rose about 20% from mid-April. Carriers are looking to ride the higher rates as long as they can before the fresh vessel capacity that is making its way to the trans-Pacific in the form of extra-loaders and new services begins to dull the momentum. “It seems like the next [rate] increase or two will be the last ones,” said Jason Cook, CEO of Ardent Global Logistics. “I’m getting the impression that this capacity is already finding its way into the trade.” The new capacity is especially significant on the trade lanes from Asia to the West Coast. Carriers in June have increased capacity by 12.8% and plan another 16.5% hike in July, Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis, said in his Sunday Spotlight newsletter. “In total, this is an injection of 397,000 TEUs of capacity in June/July compared to the situation just three weeks ago,” Murphy said. Import surge coming to Southern California The surge in imports from Asia is tied to the Trump administration’s time-limited pause in higher tariffs. The pauses are expiring over the next two months — one on July 9 on imports from most nations except for China, and another in mid-August on the huge 145% tariff on imports from China that has been reduced to 30% . The White House says it is busy negotiating new trade deals in the meantime. As those deadlines approach, the import spike is manifesting itself in the Los Angeles-Long Beach port complex, which handles about 50% of US imports from Asia. According to data from both ports, the Southern California complex is projecting a huge volume of imports over the next few weeks. Los Angeles, which this week will handle about 92,000 TEUs of laden imports, is forecasting more than 103,000 TEUs next week and 112,000 TEUs in the week of June 15. Long Beach, which will handle about 75,000 import TEUs next week, is projecting imports of more than 90,000 TEUs per week during the last three weeks of June. “Clearly shippers are trying to catch up on lost time out of China,” one forwarder said. Bookings out of Southeast Asia are quite strong, while bookings from China, which spiked after the May 12 “pause” announcement, are now “slightly weaker, but nothing that will throw the trade off,” said James Caradonna, executive vice president of the forwarder Spedag America. Short, but intense, peak season expected Based on the significant level of frontloading that has already taken place from Southeast Asia and China, forwarders say this year’s peak shipping season will start earlier and be noticeably shorter than typical peak seasons, which run from August through October. “The peak season has already started,” said Christian Sur, executive vice president of ocean freight contract logistics at the forwarder Unique Logistics International. “The peak of the peak will be in the second half of June.” For that reason, carriers are attempting to maintain cargo flow and bookings from their core customers so that when imports fall off, liners will maintain what business is left for the remainder of the year, the carrier executive said. Carriers right now are slow-walking peak season surcharges (PSSs), which are applied to cargo owners’ service contracts and forwarders’ named-account (NAC) rates, even while they announce additional spot rate increases, the executive said. “The lines are very cautious about PSSs...,” the source said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com . Contact Laura Robb at laura.robb@spglobal.com .

Pause in tariff hikes drives big gains in trans-Pacific spot rates

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Labor shortages and low water levels in Europe are intensifying persistent port bottlenecks, while the trans-Pacific demand is pulling vessels out of Asia-Europe. </div>

Labor shortages and low water levels in Europe are intensifying persistent port bottlenecks, while the trans-Pacific demand is pulling vessels out of Asia-Europe.

<div class="phx-topic">Ocean shipping rates from Asia to Europe shot up ahead of this week’s June 1 freight-all-kinds (FAK) increases by carriers, with the substantial price hikes supported by mounting delays at severely congested port hubs at both ends of the trade lane. While port bottlenecks absorb capacity on Asia-Europe, surging demand on the trans-Pacific is prompting carriers to shift vessels to the booming China-US trade lane, putting further upward pressure on Asia-Europe rates. “Carriers are redeploying ships from Asia-Europe and other routes to the trans-Pacific routes, with the capacity in Asia-Europe dropping 17% in the week starting June 16 vs. the end of May,” HSBC noted in its weekly transportation update. “However, we think these are insufficient to address the cargo rush [on the trans-Pacific], while capacity reallocation could cause shortages in other corridors,” according to the bank’s analysts. Drewry highlighted in a recent market update that since late March, labor shortages and low Rhine River water levels have pushed up berth waiting times by 37% in Antwerp, 49% in Hamburg and 77% in Bremerhaven. In Asia, Shanghai and Singapore, the world’s busiest and second-busiest ports, respectively, are battling congestion driven by a rush of exports to the US during a 90-day tariff cooldown. <h3>Rate hikes, surcharges </h3>As capacity tightens, carriers are rolling out significant rate increases from Asia to both North Europe and the Mediterranean, as well as implementing “peak season surcharges” on some Mediterranean routes. Data from rate benchmarking platform Xeneta shows Asia-North Europe rates rose 23% on June 1 to $2,353 per FEU, with Asia-Mediterranean rates up 24% to $3,720/FEU. Data assessed by Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, shows North Asia to North Europe rates rose $600 in the past week to $2,400/FEU, while Asia-Mediterranean rates increased $1,400 in the past week to $4,300/FEU. Several carriers are also raising their backhaul rates that have been below $200 per FEU since January. Mediterranean Shipping Co., Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM have set their Europe to Asia rate between $500/FEU and $530/FEU, with Cosco asking for $1,500/FEU. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Ocean shipping rates from Asia to Europe shot up ahead of this week’s June 1 freight-all-kinds (FAK) increases by carriers, with the substantial price hikes supported by mounting delays at severely congested port hubs at both ends of the trade lane. While port bottlenecks absorb capacity on Asia-Europe, surging demand on the trans-Pacific is prompting carriers to shift vessels to the booming China-US trade lane, putting further upward pressure on Asia-Europe rates. “Carriers are redeploying ships from Asia-Europe and other routes to the trans-Pacific routes, with the capacity in Asia-Europe dropping 17% in the week starting June 16 vs. the end of May,” HSBC noted in its weekly transportation update. “However, we think these are insufficient to address the cargo rush [on the trans-Pacific], while capacity reallocation could cause shortages in other corridors,” according to the bank’s analysts. Drewry highlighted in a recent market update that since late March, labor shortages and low Rhine River water levels have pushed up berth waiting times by 37% in Antwerp, 49% in Hamburg and 77% in Bremerhaven. In Asia, Shanghai and Singapore, the world’s busiest and second-busiest ports, respectively, are battling congestion driven by a rush of exports to the US during a 90-day tariff cooldown. Rate hikes, surcharges As capacity tightens, carriers are rolling out significant rate increases from Asia to both North Europe and the Mediterranean, as well as implementing “peak season surcharges” on some Mediterranean routes. Data from rate benchmarking platform Xeneta shows Asia-North Europe rates rose 23% on June 1 to $2,353 per FEU, with Asia-Mediterranean rates up 24% to $3,720/FEU. Data assessed by Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, shows North Asia to North Europe rates rose $600 in the past week to $2,400/FEU, while Asia-Mediterranean rates increased $1,400 in the past week to $4,300/FEU. Several carriers are also raising their backhaul rates that have been below $200 per FEU since January. Mediterranean Shipping Co., Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM have set their Europe to Asia rate between $500/FEU and $530/FEU, with Cosco asking for $1,500/FEU. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Asia-Europe

Asia-Europe ocean rates spike on congestion, capacity shift

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">While terminal operators had hoped that problems stemming from the mid-May work stoppage would be mostly over, forwarders are still reporting cargo delays.</div>

While terminal operators had hoped that problems stemming from the mid-May work stoppage would be mostly over, forwarders are still reporting cargo delays.

<div class="phx-topic">Shipments are still facing delays though Manzanillo, Mexico’s largest port, following a four-day strike in mid-May, forwarders say, although one terminal operator is telling customers to expect a return to normal cargo flow as early as this week. Following the strike by workers from the Manzanillo Port Customs Office, vessel arrivals at berth are currently delayed by one day, according to Kuehne + Nagel. However, data from maritime visibility provider Vizion and data and analytics company Dun &amp; Bradstreet show vessels calling Manzanillo taking about two weeks, on average, between arrival and gate out. While terminal operators had initially earmarked June as the projected end date for interruptions, forwarders are still reporting cargo delays. “There’s a headache there — strikes, system collapsed, customs is struggling and chaos with coordination of trucks,” said Nicolas Portenza, president of Eternity International Freight Forwarder México. Kuehne + Nagel’s SeaExplorer visibility platform classifies the port as “heavily disrupted” with an average vessel waiting time of 1.08 days. <h3>Rail delays </h3>Manzanillo marine terminals Contecon and SSA are still congested, and high export volumes have resulted in rail delays of about 72 hours for both imports and exports, according to Kuehne + Nagel. Terminal operator SSA Marine told customers last week that unscheduled requests for import appointments would be deleted to purge their system, but that scheduling would return to normal over the weekend, according to a notice shared by Eternity International Freight Forwarder México. Still, forwarders told the Journal of Commerce that congestion has not yet eased. “Some ocean carriers are submitting offices notices to their customers that there might be extreme delays or cancellations due to the delays at the port,” said Ernesto Hernandez Jr., a customs broker at HEMA Logistics. AIS data shows vessel calls decreasing at Manzanillo, with 11 ships calling Sunday compared with 19 on May 25 and 18 on May 18, the first Sunday after the strike ended. A forwarder said it will be difficult for vessels to avoid Manzanillo. “It’s hard for some services to blank Manzanillo,” the source said. “It will depend on if they can shift Mexican cargo to other services.” Impacts from the delays might be quantified in higher product costs, said Hernandez. “[Much] of the cargo being sent directly to Mexico is part of a manufacturing process that will end up in the US as a finished product,” he said. “Delays and cost increases at these ports will increase the landed costs of products coming into the US.” Manzanillo terminal operators Contecon and SSA declined to comment. Contact Laura Robb at <a href="mailto:Laura.Robb@spglobal.com">laura.robb@spglobal.com</a>.  </div>

Shipments are still facing delays though Manzanillo, Mexico’s largest port, following a four-day strike in mid-May, forwarders say, although one terminal operator is telling customers to expect a return to normal cargo flow as early as this week. Following the strike by workers from the Manzanillo Port Customs Office, vessel arrivals at berth are currently delayed by one day, according to Kuehne + Nagel. However, data from maritime visibility provider Vizion and data and analytics company Dun & Bradstreet show vessels calling Manzanillo taking about two weeks, on average, between arrival and gate out. While terminal operators had initially earmarked June as the projected end date for interruptions, forwarders are still reporting cargo delays. “There’s a headache there — strikes, system collapsed, customs is struggling and chaos with coordination of trucks,” said Nicolas Portenza, president of Eternity International Freight Forwarder México. Kuehne + Nagel’s SeaExplorer visibility platform classifies the port as “heavily disrupted” with an average vessel waiting time of 1.08 days. Rail delays Manzanillo marine terminals Contecon and SSA are still congested, and high export volumes have resulted in rail delays of about 72 hours for both imports and exports, according to Kuehne + Nagel. Terminal operator SSA Marine told customers last week that unscheduled requests for import appointments would be deleted to purge their system, but that scheduling would return to normal over the weekend, according to a notice shared by Eternity International Freight Forwarder México. Still, forwarders told the Journal of Commerce that congestion has not yet eased. “Some ocean carriers are submitting offices notices to their customers that there might be extreme delays or cancellations due to the delays at the port,” said Ernesto Hernandez Jr., a customs broker at HEMA Logistics. AIS data shows vessel calls decreasing at Manzanillo, with 11 ships calling Sunday compared with 19 on May 25 and 18 on May 18, the first Sunday after the strike ended. A forwarder said it will be difficult for vessels to avoid Manzanillo. “It’s hard for some services to blank Manzanillo,” the source said. “It will depend on if they can shift Mexican cargo to other services.” Impacts from the delays might be quantified in higher product costs, said Hernandez. “[Much] of the cargo being sent directly to Mexico is part of a manufacturing process that will end up in the US as a finished product,” he said. “Delays and cost increases at these ports will increase the landed costs of products coming into the US.” Manzanillo terminal operators Contecon and SSA declined to comment. Contact Laura Robb at laura.robb@spglobal.com . 

Disruption lingers at Mexico’s Manzanillo port weeks after brief strike

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Lower LTL volumes are likely in the coming months, but pricing remains elevated, according to producer price index data. </div>

Lower LTL volumes are likely in the coming months, but pricing remains elevated, according to producer price index data.

<div class="phx-topic">Soft demand for less-than-truckload (LTL) freight and service in the US appears poised to get even softer, as publicly owned LTL providers prepare to release mid-quarter market reports. Shippers should expect volumes to vary across carriers, but pricing is likely to stay at its current elevated levels, with the US long-distance LTL producer price index (PPI) at 259 for the past three months, a record high and about 5% higher than a year ago. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="9014abeb-369b-4328-97ae-ee1793647b6e"></dynamic-object></div>Shipments and tonnage both decreased year over year in May at Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), the <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/journal-of-commerce-rankings-us-ltl-sector-defies-soft-demand-regains-traction-6010008">second-largest US LTL trucking company</a>, ODFL said Wednesday. ODFL reported an 8.4% decrease in LTL tonnage and a 6.8% drop in LTL shipments per day Revenue fell 5.8% year over year in May, but LTL revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel surcharges, rose 5.6%. ODFL remains one of the most disciplined LTL carriers when it comes to pricing, and its operating ratio — a measure of profitability — is in the 70s. A drop in LTL revenue, or shipments, may not point to a broader market slump, but may reflect a carrier’s refusal to lower rates to get freight at the expense of profitability. Last year, the aggregate LTL shipment count among the Top 25 LTL Carriers rose 2.5%. The drop in demand ODFL saw in May comes as US manufacturers cope with high input inventories and fluctuations in orders as vendors frontload freight to avoid high US tariffs. Industrial manufacturing makes up the bulk of LTL freight in the US. The S&amp;P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 52 in May, up from 50.2 in April and the fifth straight month the PMI has been above 50, the breaking point dividing expansion from contraction. But that’s not necessarily a sign of industrial health. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="56be088e-5b54-4d09-add3-f841e65711ec"></dynamic-object></div>“The rise in the PMI during May masks worrying developments under the hood of the US manufacturing economy,” said Chris Williamson, S&amp;P Global’s chief business economist. “While growth of new orders picked up and suppliers were reportedly busier as companies built up their inventory levels at an unprecedented rate, the common theme was a temporary surge in demand as manufacturers and their customers worry about supply issues and rising prices,” Williamson said in a statement this week. That surge in demand and inventories also coincides with frontloading of goods from China and elsewhere during a pair of 90-day pauses on higher US tariffs, pauses that will expire in July and August, barring further extensions or the successful negotiation of trade deals. While the S&amp;P Global monthly US Manufacturing PMI has shown tepid expansion in 2025, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI has been in contraction for four months, dropping 0.2 percentage point in May to 48.5. The ISM inventories index dropped into contraction after three positive months as businesses completed frontloading of goods ahead of tariffs, ISM said. Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Soft demand for less-than-truckload (LTL) freight and service in the US appears poised to get even softer, as publicly owned LTL providers prepare to release mid-quarter market reports. Shippers should expect volumes to vary across carriers, but pricing is likely to stay at its current elevated levels, with the US long-distance LTL producer price index (PPI) at 259 for the past three months, a record high and about 5% higher than a year ago. Shipments and tonnage both decreased year over year in May at Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), the second-largest US LTL trucking company , ODFL said Wednesday. ODFL reported an 8.4% decrease in LTL tonnage and a 6.8% drop in LTL shipments per day Revenue fell 5.8% year over year in May, but LTL revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel surcharges, rose 5.6%. ODFL remains one of the most disciplined LTL carriers when it comes to pricing, and its operating ratio — a measure of profitability — is in the 70s. A drop in LTL revenue, or shipments, may not point to a broader market slump, but may reflect a carrier’s refusal to lower rates to get freight at the expense of profitability. Last year, the aggregate LTL shipment count among the Top 25 LTL Carriers rose 2.5%. The drop in demand ODFL saw in May comes as US manufacturers cope with high input inventories and fluctuations in orders as vendors frontload freight to avoid high US tariffs. Industrial manufacturing makes up the bulk of LTL freight in the US. The S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 52 in May, up from 50.2 in April and the fifth straight month the PMI has been above 50, the breaking point dividing expansion from contraction. But that’s not necessarily a sign of industrial health. “The rise in the PMI during May masks worrying developments under the hood of the US manufacturing economy,” said Chris Williamson, S&P Global’s chief business economist. “While growth of new orders picked up and suppliers were reportedly busier as companies built up their inventory levels at an unprecedented rate, the common theme was a temporary surge in demand as manufacturers and their customers worry about supply issues and rising prices,” Williamson said in a statement this week. That surge in demand and inventories also coincides with frontloading of goods from China and elsewhere during a pair of 90-day pauses on higher US tariffs, pauses that will expire in July and August, barring further extensions or the successful negotiation of trade deals. While the S&P Global monthly US Manufacturing PMI has shown tepid expansion in 2025, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI has been in contraction for four months, dropping 0.2 percentage point in May to 48.5. The ISM inventories index dropped into contraction after three positive months as businesses completed frontloading of goods ahead of tariffs, ISM said. Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .

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