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<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Strong demand for much of the year has kept North European ports under pressure, slowing attempts to ease the bottlenecks.</div>

Strong demand for much of the year has kept North European ports under pressure, slowing attempts to ease the bottlenecks.

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<div class="phx-topic">BRUSSELS – North European ports will continue to face disruption and congestion “for many more months” with little improvement in the series of factors contributing to the ongoing bottlenecks, according to an executive with the port of Antwerp-Bruges. Luc Arnouts, vice president of international relations and networks at Europe’s busiest port, said container yards were full at the main hubs, ships were arriving outside their berthing windows, intermittent strikes at some ports were having a knock-on effect, carrier alliances reshuffling capacity, low water on the Rhine and delays in hinterland moves were all holding up traffic. “Terminal occupancy is high in all the major ports so when ships do not arrive within their berthing window and arrive a day later, that disrupts the whole operation,” he told the CHAINge Europe supply chain conference here this week. Strong demand for much of the year has kept North European ports under pressure, slowing attempts to mitigate the bottlenecks. The latest Asia-to-Europe volume data from Container Trades Statistics (CTS) is for April, when 1.64 million TEUs were transported westward, an increase of 8.6% year over year and a 6% gain from March. In the first four months of 2025, total Asia-Europe volume was up 9% year over year at 6.13 million TEUs, with the Asia-North Europe segment rising 6.6%, to 3.72 million TEUs, and Asia-Mediterranean surging 12.14%, to 2.4 million TEUs, according to CTS. Kuehne + Nagel’s SeaExplorer port visibility tool noted that port congestion in North European ports like Antwerp, Hamburg and Bremerhaven was extending transit times with delays in berthing, operational disruptions and high yard utilisation. The platform reported that container yards in Antwerp-Bruges were at 100% and carriers were reporting waiting times of up to three days, with truck slots limited and fully booked early each day. Container yards at Bremerhaven, one of the hubs for Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd's Gemini Cooperation, is currently at 85%, while some terminals in Rotterdam are reportedly at 80% utilization. Michael Aldwell, Kuehne +Nagel’s executive vice president of sea logistics, said ports in southern European were also seeing congestion due to longer transits around the Cape of Good Hope as Mediterranean importers began to stock up earlier for the winter holiday sales season. “There were lower inventories in Europe and stronger sales than importers expected,” he told the Journal of Commerce this week, with the reshuffling of alliances adding to the bottlenecks. “When you've got the redeployment of the new alliances happening, you're always going to have some initial operational challenges when things start arriving at different berthing windows, different setups,” he said. “And, of course, you have the traditional labor challenges,” he added. <h3>Dockworker strikes add to port woes </h3>Those labor challenges were coming on top of the high demand and operational challenges, with dockworker strikes continuing to impact European ports. A nationwide strike in Belgium on May 20 brought vessel traffic at the Port of Antwerp-Bruges to a halt, further stretching the system. Another national “day of action” will be held by unions in Belgium on June 25. Dockworker unions in Sweden launched strikes and blockade actions at multiple ports this week, with APM Terminals Gothenburg to be impacted on June 23 and 24. “There is not much free space in in the system, so this all has a knock-on impact,” Arnouts said. “If you are at a high level of frequency, you can imagine that adds to the disruption, on top of the uncertainty over tariffs that create shocks in cargo flows.” The latest data from Sea-Intelligence shows global schedule reliability has improved from 51.4% in January to 58.7% in April. Despite the steady improvement this year, Arnouts said it was too early to determine whether the better on-time performance was being seen in the port. He also highlighted a lack of transparency across the cargo supply chain that was a source of continuing frustration. ”When a container arrives at a container terminal, often we don’t know the next mode of transport,” he said. “Can you imagine that a container comes in, needs to go the next day on a barge to Basel or on a truck to Duisburg and often we don’t know that. “There is so much communication in the supply chain but still we need to fight to get the right ETA (estimated time of arrival) of a ship that's a part of the supply chain as well,” he added. “If you don't know when the ship arrives, you don't know what the next step will be.” Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

BRUSSELS – North European ports will continue to face disruption and congestion “for many more months” with little improvement in the series of factors contributing to the ongoing bottlenecks, according to an executive with the port of Antwerp-Bruges. Luc Arnouts, vice president of international relations and networks at Europe’s busiest port, said container yards were full at the main hubs, ships were arriving outside their berthing windows, intermittent strikes at some ports were having a knock-on effect, carrier alliances reshuffling capacity, low water on the Rhine and delays in hinterland moves were all holding up traffic. “Terminal occupancy is high in all the major ports so when ships do not arrive within their berthing window and arrive a day later, that disrupts the whole operation,” he told the CHAINge Europe supply chain conference here this week. Strong demand for much of the year has kept North European ports under pressure, slowing attempts to mitigate the bottlenecks. The latest Asia-to-Europe volume data from Container Trades Statistics (CTS) is for April, when 1.64 million TEUs were transported westward, an increase of 8.6% year over year and a 6% gain from March. In the first four months of 2025, total Asia-Europe volume was up 9% year over year at 6.13 million TEUs, with the Asia-North Europe segment rising 6.6%, to 3.72 million TEUs, and Asia-Mediterranean surging 12.14%, to 2.4 million TEUs, according to CTS. Kuehne + Nagel’s SeaExplorer port visibility tool noted that port congestion in North European ports like Antwerp, Hamburg and Bremerhaven was extending transit times with delays in berthing, operational disruptions and high yard utilisation. The platform reported that container yards in Antwerp-Bruges were at 100% and carriers were reporting waiting times of up to three days, with truck slots limited and fully booked early each day. Container yards at Bremerhaven, one of the hubs for Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd's Gemini Cooperation, is currently at 85%, while some terminals in Rotterdam are reportedly at 80% utilization. Michael Aldwell, Kuehne +Nagel’s executive vice president of sea logistics, said ports in southern European were also seeing congestion due to longer transits around the Cape of Good Hope as Mediterranean importers began to stock up earlier for the winter holiday sales season. “There were lower inventories in Europe and stronger sales than importers expected,” he told the Journal of Commerce this week, with the reshuffling of alliances adding to the bottlenecks. “When you've got the redeployment of the new alliances happening, you're always going to have some initial operational challenges when things start arriving at different berthing windows, different setups,” he said. “And, of course, you have the traditional labor challenges,” he added. Dockworker strikes add to port woes Those labor challenges were coming on top of the high demand and operational challenges, with dockworker strikes continuing to impact European ports. A nationwide strike in Belgium on May 20 brought vessel traffic at the Port of Antwerp-Bruges to a halt, further stretching the system. Another national “day of action” will be held by unions in Belgium on June 25. Dockworker unions in Sweden launched strikes and blockade actions at multiple ports this week, with APM Terminals Gothenburg to be impacted on June 23 and 24. “There is not much free space in in the system, so this all has a knock-on impact,” Arnouts said. “If you are at a high level of frequency, you can imagine that adds to the disruption, on top of the uncertainty over tariffs that create shocks in cargo flows.” The latest data from Sea-Intelligence shows global schedule reliability has improved from 51.4% in January to 58.7% in April. Despite the steady improvement this year, Arnouts said it was too early to determine whether the better on-time performance was being seen in the port. He also highlighted a lack of transparency across the cargo supply chain that was a source of continuing frustration. ”When a container arrives at a container terminal, often we don’t know the next mode of transport,” he said. “Can you imagine that a container comes in, needs to go the next day on a barge to Basel or on a truck to Duisburg and often we don’t know that. “There is so much communication in the supply chain but still we need to fight to get the right ETA (estimated time of arrival) of a ship that's a part of the supply chain as well,” he added. “If you don't know when the ship arrives, you don't know what the next step will be.” Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Months of congestion ahead for North Europe ports: Antwerp-Bruges

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">A more than 30% one-week drop in rates from Asia to the US West Coast is showing that the import rush sparked by the temporary pause in higher US tariffs will apparently be short-lived.</div>

A more than 30% one-week drop in rates from Asia to the US West Coast is showing that the import rush sparked by the temporary pause in higher US tariffs will apparently be short-lived.

<div class="phx-topic">Spot rates in the eastbound trans-Pacific are in rapid retreat, a sign the import surge that came on the heels of the temporary pause in higher US tariffs won’t have the staying power many initially believed, market sources say. Rates to the West Coast were at $3,500 per FEU as of June 17, down 32% in just one week, according to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. East Coast rates of $6,500 were 11% lower on the week. Forwarders peg current rates from Asia to the West Coast in the low $3,000s per FEU, with East Coast rates in the low $6,000s per FEU. As recently as June 6, the West Coast rate was in the low $6,000s and the East Coast rate was in the low $7,000s, according to Platts. “It’s quite the turnaround,” said Robert Khachatryan, CEO of the forwarder Freight Right Global Logistics. “What’s driving this? [Declining] demand primarily.” Bookings at Asian load ports have dropped, Khachatryan said, even as carriers have injected more capacity into the eastbound trans-Pacific recently to <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/pause-on-tariffs-prompts-us-retailers-to-upgrade-summer-import-forecast-6022230">take advantage of the demand</a> that resulted from the Trump administration in mid-May pausing its proposed 145% tariffs on China for 90 days. A separate tariff pause on other trading partners ends July 9. But the demand sparked by those moves appears fleeting. “I think everybody was expecting that big boom to last a lot longer,” a forwarder told the Journal of Commerce. “It might be over.” <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="e8c13a3e-9f5a-412f-8741-adbf5e1a7779"></dynamic-object></div>Just how “over” is uncertain. While some carriers may believe there will be another surge in demand when the Trump administration finally decides the fate of the tariffs on China and other countries in July and August, forwarders don’t see that happening. “I don’t expect it to increase again,” a second forwarder said. “This is all speculation. Anything could happen, but the trend doesn’t show for that.” <h3>Has peak season begun? </h3>Also in the mix is peak shipping season, which in typical years runs from August through October. But in the year of tariffs, nothing is showing to be typical. Some market participants say the recent demand surge could be considered the start of an early peak season that still has room to run. A carrier executive told the Journal of Commerce he does not believe rates in the eastbound trans-Pacific are inevitably headed lower still in the coming weeks.“Shippers are in a ‘wait and see’ mode on tariffs and seeking clarity on Trump’s declaration of deal with China bringing tariffs to 55%, meaning there might be another [demand] surge,” the executive said.Until then, prices are undoubtedly softening. “Vessel-specific rates to the East Coast from some China ports are a lot lower [than indexes] — $5,500,” Khachatryan said. “I saw $2,700 [to the West Coast] out there,” said Jason Cook, CEO of the forwarder Ardent Global Logistics. Cook said an indicator of where rates in the trans-Pacific may be headed will come on July 1, when a number of carriers will apparently attempt to implement another general rate increase. “On July 1, they’ll try to do an increase,” he said. “They may try again in mid-month.” Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>.Contact Laura Robb at <a href="mailto:laura.robb@spglobal.com">laura.robb@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Spot rates in the eastbound trans-Pacific are in rapid retreat, a sign the import surge that came on the heels of the temporary pause in higher US tariffs won’t have the staying power many initially believed, market sources say. Rates to the West Coast were at $3,500 per FEU as of June 17, down 32% in just one week, according to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. East Coast rates of $6,500 were 11% lower on the week. Forwarders peg current rates from Asia to the West Coast in the low $3,000s per FEU, with East Coast rates in the low $6,000s per FEU. As recently as June 6, the West Coast rate was in the low $6,000s and the East Coast rate was in the low $7,000s, according to Platts. “It’s quite the turnaround,” said Robert Khachatryan, CEO of the forwarder Freight Right Global Logistics. “What’s driving this? [Declining] demand primarily.” Bookings at Asian load ports have dropped, Khachatryan said, even as carriers have injected more capacity into the eastbound trans-Pacific recently to take advantage of the demand that resulted from the Trump administration in mid-May pausing its proposed 145% tariffs on China for 90 days. A separate tariff pause on other trading partners ends July 9. But the demand sparked by those moves appears fleeting. “I think everybody was expecting that big boom to last a lot longer,” a forwarder told the Journal of Commerce. “It might be over.” Just how “over” is uncertain. While some carriers may believe there will be another surge in demand when the Trump administration finally decides the fate of the tariffs on China and other countries in July and August, forwarders don’t see that happening. “I don’t expect it to increase again,” a second forwarder said. “This is all speculation. Anything could happen, but the trend doesn’t show for that.” Has peak season begun? Also in the mix is peak shipping season, which in typical years runs from August through October. But in the year of tariffs, nothing is showing to be typical. Some market participants say the recent demand surge could be considered the start of an early peak season that still has room to run. A carrier executive told the Journal of Commerce he does not believe rates in the eastbound trans-Pacific are inevitably headed lower still in the coming weeks. “Shippers are in a ‘wait and see’ mode on tariffs and seeking clarity on Trump’s declaration of deal with China bringing tariffs to 55%, meaning there might be another [demand] surge,” the executive said. Until then, prices are undoubtedly softening. “Vessel-specific rates to the East Coast from some China ports are a lot lower [than indexes] — $5,500,” Khachatryan said. “I saw $2,700 [to the West Coast] out there,” said Jason Cook, CEO of the forwarder Ardent Global Logistics. Cook said an indicator of where rates in the trans-Pacific may be headed will come on July 1, when a number of carriers will apparently attempt to implement another general rate increase. “On July 1, they’ll try to do an increase,” he said. “They may try again in mid-month.” Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .Contact Laura Robb at laura.robb@spglobal.com .

Trans-Pacific spot rates falling as tariff-linked demand surge loses steam

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">OTR Solutions had alleged in a lawsuit that load board provider DAT violated a non-compete agreement by acquiring a rival factoring company. </div>

OTR Solutions had alleged in a lawsuit that load board provider DAT violated a non-compete agreement by acquiring a rival factoring company.

<div class="phx-topic">DAT Freight &amp; Analytics has <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/court-orders-dat-to-temporarily-halt-trucking-factoring-service-6024606">resolved a legal dispute</a> with a freight factoring company that filed a lawsuit against DAT for allegedly violating a non-compete agreement by <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/dat-adds-in-house-factoring-services-with-latest-acquisition-6005462">acquiring a competitor</a> in mid-May. Terms of the settlement reached this week were not disclosed by DAT, the largest truckload load board in North America, or its former partner, OTR Solutions. Georgia-based OTR, whose OTR Capital division provides factoring services to carriers and brokers, on Monday filed a voluntary dismissal of the lawsuit. “DAT thanks OTR for their years of partnership and their collaboration in reaching a constructive outcome,” DAT said in a statement Wednesday. The lawsuit stemmed from DAT’s acquisition of Outgo, an early-stage factoring provider that is being integrated as a product within the DAT One platform for truckload carrier customers. OTR had filed the lawsuit to stop DAT from providing factoring services through Outgo, saying the acquisition violated a non-compete agreement between DAT and OTR and violated a judge’s order to stop offering factoring services via Outgo until a hearing on the matter could be held. Freight factoring is a financial service in which carriers sell their unpaid invoices to a third party that advances them the cash they are owed, generally in exchange for a single-digit percentage of the invoice amount. DAT has offered factoring services to its carrier customers since 2007 via external partnerships, most recently with OTR. Contact Eric Johnson at <a href="mailto:eric.johnson@spglobal.com">eric.johnson@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

DAT Freight & Analytics has resolved a legal dispute with a freight factoring company that filed a lawsuit against DAT for allegedly violating a non-compete agreement by acquiring a competitor in mid-May. Terms of the settlement reached this week were not disclosed by DAT, the largest truckload load board in North America, or its former partner, OTR Solutions. Georgia-based OTR, whose OTR Capital division provides factoring services to carriers and brokers, on Monday filed a voluntary dismissal of the lawsuit. “DAT thanks OTR for their years of partnership and their collaboration in reaching a constructive outcome,” DAT said in a statement Wednesday. The lawsuit stemmed from DAT’s acquisition of Outgo, an early-stage factoring provider that is being integrated as a product within the DAT One platform for truckload carrier customers. OTR had filed the lawsuit to stop DAT from providing factoring services through Outgo, saying the acquisition violated a non-compete agreement between DAT and OTR and violated a judge’s order to stop offering factoring services via Outgo until a hearing on the matter could be held. Freight factoring is a financial service in which carriers sell their unpaid invoices to a third party that advances them the cash they are owed, generally in exchange for a single-digit percentage of the invoice amount. DAT has offered factoring services to its carrier customers since 2007 via external partnerships, most recently with OTR. Contact Eric Johnson at eric.johnson@spglobal.com .

Former partner reaches settlement with DAT over recent acquisition

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Despite ongoing efforts to clear out logjams triggered by the brief work stoppage, berth waiting times for vessels arriving at the country’s busiest port have risen to their highest this year. </div>

Despite ongoing efforts to clear out logjams triggered by the brief work stoppage, berth waiting times for vessels arriving at the country’s busiest port have risen to their highest this year.

<div class="phx-topic">One month after a four-day strike by customs workers at Mexico’s Port of Manzanillo, cargo operations at the country’s busiest container gateway have yet to show any noticeable improvement, stakeholders say. Despite ongoing efforts to clear out <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/disruption-lingers-at-mexicos-manzanillo-port-weeks-after-brief-strike-6016411">logjams triggered by the brief strike</a>, berth waiting times for arriving vessels at Manzanillo have risen to their highest this year — 1.8 days, according to data from maritime visibility provider Vizion and data and analytics company Dun &amp; Bradstreet. Terminal operators had previously said they expected the congestion to clear by early June, but extended weekend hours at the port and an increase in customs personnel have not yet had an impact on the delays. Carlos Tamayo, director of logistics in Mexico for logistics provider C.H. Robinson, told the Journal of Commerce that customers have seen delays of up to two weeks due to the congestion. “Container throughput [at Manzanillo] has decreased by approximately 50% as a result of extended wait times for entering and exiting the port,” Tamayo said. “For freight that hasn’t shipped yet, we’re advising customers to move up bookings by at least three to four weeks and consider alternate ports like Lázaro Cárdenas.” Shippers who use Manzanillo might face additional costs if they don’t meet their scheduled gate-out window due to congestion. “If [that happens], there is a high risk the container won’t complete the clearance process,” said Ernesto Hernandez Jr., a customs broker at HEMA Logistics. “The consignee would need to request a new gate-out date and attempt the process again, leading to additional storage charges and potential demurrage costs.” Manzanillo terminal operators Contecon and SSA declined to comment. Contact Laura Robb at <a href="mailto:Laura.Robb@spglobal.com">laura.robb@spglobal.com</a>.  </div>

One month after a four-day strike by customs workers at Mexico’s Port of Manzanillo, cargo operations at the country’s busiest container gateway have yet to show any noticeable improvement, stakeholders say. Despite ongoing efforts to clear out logjams triggered by the brief strike , berth waiting times for arriving vessels at Manzanillo have risen to their highest this year — 1.8 days, according to data from maritime visibility provider Vizion and data and analytics company Dun & Bradstreet. Terminal operators had previously said they expected the congestion to clear by early June, but extended weekend hours at the port and an increase in customs personnel have not yet had an impact on the delays. Carlos Tamayo, director of logistics in Mexico for logistics provider C.H. Robinson, told the Journal of Commerce that customers have seen delays of up to two weeks due to the congestion. “Container throughput [at Manzanillo] has decreased by approximately 50% as a result of extended wait times for entering and exiting the port,” Tamayo said. “For freight that hasn’t shipped yet, we’re advising customers to move up bookings by at least three to four weeks and consider alternate ports like Lázaro Cárdenas.” Shippers who use Manzanillo might face additional costs if they don’t meet their scheduled gate-out window due to congestion. “If [that happens], there is a high risk the container won’t complete the clearance process,” said Ernesto Hernandez Jr., a customs broker at HEMA Logistics. “The consignee would need to request a new gate-out date and attempt the process again, leading to additional storage charges and potential demurrage costs.” Manzanillo terminal operators Contecon and SSA declined to comment. Contact Laura Robb at laura.robb@spglobal.com . 

Cargo bottlenecks persist at Mexico’s Manzanillo port one month after strike

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The inability to predict the next move on tariffs is unsettling for cargo owners and their service providers, the CEO of the Association for Supply Chain Management tells the Journal of Commerce. </div>

The inability to predict the next move on tariffs is unsettling for cargo owners and their service providers, the CEO of the Association for Supply Chain Management tells the Journal of Commerce.

<div class="phx-topic">BRUSSELS — The US tariff whiplash is forcing those who manage supply chains to shrink planning horizons, increase inventory carrying costs and put strategic investment on hold, according to the CEO of the Association for Supply Chain Management. While the Trump administration pursues its so-called “reciprocal trade agenda,” Abe Eshkenazi said the inability to predict the next tariff move was unsettling for cargo owners and their service providers. “A lot of the strategic investments and a lot of the capital investments have been put on hold,” Eshkenazi told the Journal of Commerce in an interview this week at the CHAINge Europe supply chain conference. “It’s hard to convince a CEO to spend $2 billion on a new plant when he doesn’t know if you’re going to manufacture for local markets or for a global marketplace,” he added. “As a [beneficial cargo owner], this is going to be the life that you lead over the next few years.” Eshkenazi said planning horizons have shrunk because of the lack of visibility in ever-changing tariff-driven demand, especially on the trans-Pacific. He emphasized that the tariff disruption to global trade was not a supply and demand issue, which supply chains were well-suited to handle, but rather a pricing issue. “That is a big problem for us because it changes constantly,” he said. “How much is the tariff? When is it going to be applied? Is it consistent? We are accustomed to disruption, but more in the form of long-term issues, as opposed to something that’s on today, off tomorrow, or 20% now, then 50% or 100%.” A pause on higher tariffs on most of the US’ trading partners is in effect until July 9, while the pause on the 145% tariff on imports from China is due to expire Aug. 14. President Donald Trump wrote last week on his social media platform that a deal with Beijing will see US tariffs set at 55% for Chinese imports, up from 30%, while China’s tariffs on US goods remain at 10%. However, there has not yet been a formal deal signed between Beijing and Washington. <h3>Importers building inventory buffers </h3>Eshkenazi warned that cargo owners in the US were being forced to carry too much inventory as a risk management strategy, and that “can only last so long.” “You can’t continue to build up inventories or your CFO is going to have a conversation and ask why you are draining capital for stock just sitting there and nobody moving it,” he noted. Trade disruption caused by the US tariffs dominated discussions at the Brussels conference, with attendees expressing their frustration at managing cargo flows in such a fluid environment. “It has taken us almost three years to go through the additional inventory built up to cope with supply chain disruptions and we are now having to bring in buffer stocks again to try to manage the risk,” the supply chain director for a global shipper said. A US importer said if the intention of the Trump tariffs was to bring manufacturing back to the US, “no one would buy our products because they would be too expensive.” Other roundtable attendees highlighted the recent trans-Pacific rate environment where carriers were rolling out general rate increases every two weeks to take advantage of what had been heavy demand after tariffs on China were paused in May and importers rushed to get shipments on the water. But spot rates on the two main Asia-US trade lanes are now falling. The Asia-US West Coast rate this week of $3,500 per FEU is down 32% from the previous week, according to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Rates from Asia to the US East Coast fell 11% week over week to $6,500/FEU. <h3>Doubt, hesitancy in investment circles </h3>The uncertainty linked to tariffs has extended beyond supply chains and into financial markets, creating doubt and hesitancy in terms of investment. “Everyone is waiting to find out what the final rules of the road are so we can apply them,” Eshkenazi said. “In the short term, there’s a lot of ’wait and see,’ and in the long term we’re already seeing a hesitancy on investment in supply chain infrastructure as well as in securing capital. “That will be an extraordinary problem down the road, because the consumer is still going to want to buy,” he added. “The question is, ‘what does your market demand look like, and where do you serve it from?’” Eshkenazi noted that companies in the US were looking at diversifying both suppliers and manufacturing facilities, but much of the investment was on pause. “Companies are not developing plants that sit idle, or having staff sit idle at home waiting to be actuated,” he said. “No investment is going to be done in parallel activities just in case.” Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

BRUSSELS — The US tariff whiplash is forcing those who manage supply chains to shrink planning horizons, increase inventory carrying costs and put strategic investment on hold, according to the CEO of the Association for Supply Chain Management. While the Trump administration pursues its so-called “reciprocal trade agenda,” Abe Eshkenazi said the inability to predict the next tariff move was unsettling for cargo owners and their service providers. “A lot of the strategic investments and a lot of the capital investments have been put on hold,” Eshkenazi told the Journal of Commerce in an interview this week at the CHAINge Europe supply chain conference. “It’s hard to convince a CEO to spend $2 billion on a new plant when he doesn’t know if you’re going to manufacture for local markets or for a global marketplace,” he added. “As a [beneficial cargo owner], this is going to be the life that you lead over the next few years.” Eshkenazi said planning horizons have shrunk because of the lack of visibility in ever-changing tariff-driven demand, especially on the trans-Pacific. He emphasized that the tariff disruption to global trade was not a supply and demand issue, which supply chains were well-suited to handle, but rather a pricing issue. “That is a big problem for us because it changes constantly,” he said. “How much is the tariff? When is it going to be applied? Is it consistent? We are accustomed to disruption, but more in the form of long-term issues, as opposed to something that’s on today, off tomorrow, or 20% now, then 50% or 100%.” A pause on higher tariffs on most of the US’ trading partners is in effect until July 9, while the pause on the 145% tariff on imports from China is due to expire Aug. 14. President Donald Trump wrote last week on his social media platform that a deal with Beijing will see US tariffs set at 55% for Chinese imports, up from 30%, while China’s tariffs on US goods remain at 10%. However, there has not yet been a formal deal signed between Beijing and Washington. Importers building inventory buffers Eshkenazi warned that cargo owners in the US were being forced to carry too much inventory as a risk management strategy, and that “can only last so long.” “You can’t continue to build up inventories or your CFO is going to have a conversation and ask why you are draining capital for stock just sitting there and nobody moving it,” he noted. Trade disruption caused by the US tariffs dominated discussions at the Brussels conference, with attendees expressing their frustration at managing cargo flows in such a fluid environment. “It has taken us almost three years to go through the additional inventory built up to cope with supply chain disruptions and we are now having to bring in buffer stocks again to try to manage the risk,” the supply chain director for a global shipper said. A US importer said if the intention of the Trump tariffs was to bring manufacturing back to the US, “no one would buy our products because they would be too expensive.” Other roundtable attendees highlighted the recent trans-Pacific rate environment where carriers were rolling out general rate increases every two weeks to take advantage of what had been heavy demand after tariffs on China were paused in May and importers rushed to get shipments on the water. But spot rates on the two main Asia-US trade lanes are now falling. The Asia-US West Coast rate this week of $3,500 per FEU is down 32% from the previous week, according to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Rates from Asia to the US East Coast fell 11% week over week to $6,500/FEU. Doubt, hesitancy in investment circles The uncertainty linked to tariffs has extended beyond supply chains and into financial markets, creating doubt and hesitancy in terms of investment. “Everyone is waiting to find out what the final rules of the road are so we can apply them,” Eshkenazi said. “In the short term, there’s a lot of ’wait and see,’ and in the long term we’re already seeing a hesitancy on investment in supply chain infrastructure as well as in securing capital. “That will be an extraordinary problem down the road, because the consumer is still going to want to buy,” he added. “The question is, ‘what does your market demand look like, and where do you serve it from?’” Eshkenazi noted that companies in the US were looking at diversifying both suppliers and manufacturing facilities, but much of the investment was on pause. “Companies are not developing plants that sit idle, or having staff sit idle at home waiting to be actuated,” he said. “No investment is going to be done in parallel activities just in case.” Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Changing US tariffs force structural shift in global supply chains: ASCM

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Outpost is broadening its business from truck parking to a national shared-terminal network that offers multiple carriers access to “full-service” facilities. </div>

Outpost is broadening its business from truck parking to a national shared-terminal network that offers multiple carriers access to “full-service” facilities.

<div class="phx-topic">The need for greater speed and flexibility in supply chains is fueling the growth of shared third-party truck terminals, a new twist on the use of multi-client logistics facilities. Outpost, a company founded in 2021 to provide secure fleet yards for truck parking, is expanding beyond that initial goal to create a network of full-service, shared-use terminals that allow carriers to quickly ramp up business in areas without building facilities. Major third-party logistics providers (3PLs) have long offered multi-client warehousing at their facilities, but multi-client truck terminals appear to be a new thing. Outpost’s latest step is the acquisition of four terminal sites near US logistics hubs. Those purchases, announced last week, are part of a $500 million expansion program by the Austin, Texas-based company. Each of the four properties — located in Dallas; Las Vegas; Savannah, Georgia; and Fontana, California — has cross-docks, maintenance facilities, warehouses, office space and acreage for trailer drop yards and parking, said Trent Cameron, Outpost’s founder and CEO. Outpost now has about 25 real estate “assets” in place across the US and plans to buy an additional 10 to 12 properties by the end of the year, Cameron said. The company has raised venture capital funding from GreenPoint Partners and Speedwagon Capital Partners, according to Crunchbase. The cost of the recent acquisitions was not disclosed. The goal of the moves is to provide flexible, scalable infrastructure for logistics, Cameron told the Journal of Commerce, accommodating expansion and countering disruption. “Freight demand shifts faster than fixed infrastructure,” he said. “Recent tariff policy changes reflect just how quickly the supply chain can move.” On-again, off-again import taxes and waves of freight arriving in the US are forcing shippers to rethink domestic transportation networks, and the impact is rippling through to motor carriers. Trucking companies need to be able to respond to changes in demand, routes, origin points and destinations as quickly as their shipper customers, and that can come down to having the right terminal at the right place and time. But finding a location, getting approval for construction and building a terminal can take years. That led less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers to jump at the opportunity to buy hundreds of terminals from bankrupt carrier Yellow following its collapse in 2023. Outpost sees itself as an alternative carriers can consider rather than buying or building facilities. “We don’t think there’s a need for companies to make long-term investments in facilities like terminals that aren’t very fluid,” Cameron said. <h3>Digital connections </h3>Outpost says it is attracting some large customers with its third-party approach to terminals, including Werner Enterprises, Prime, Landstar System and PAM Transport. However, this type of third-party, shared network can’t function without technology. “We’re not just building physical infrastructure, but a digital backbone,” Cameron said, with that backbone connecting the infrastructure, including visibility technology that tracks every vehicle entering and leaving a terminal. And although the primary customer is a truckload provider, Outpost is also working with LTL and intermodal operators. “We have a facility in Phoenix purchased from Yellow in January 2024 that has an LTL carrier using the cross dock and truckload and intermodal companies using maintenance and parking space,” Cameron said. “Everyone is cohabiting on this one outpost even though they’re in different modes of transportation.” The company also consults with the ultimate source of its business: the shipper. “We have shippers who want this type of option embedded in carrier contracts, and we have shippers with private fleets using the network,” Cameron said. “If more carriers join the network, we can make the network even denser, add more nodes, and give carriers and shippers more options.” Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The need for greater speed and flexibility in supply chains is fueling the growth of shared third-party truck terminals, a new twist on the use of multi-client logistics facilities. Outpost, a company founded in 2021 to provide secure fleet yards for truck parking, is expanding beyond that initial goal to create a network of full-service, shared-use terminals that allow carriers to quickly ramp up business in areas without building facilities. Major third-party logistics providers (3PLs) have long offered multi-client warehousing at their facilities, but multi-client truck terminals appear to be a new thing. Outpost’s latest step is the acquisition of four terminal sites near US logistics hubs. Those purchases, announced last week, are part of a $500 million expansion program by the Austin, Texas-based company. Each of the four properties — located in Dallas; Las Vegas; Savannah, Georgia; and Fontana, California — has cross-docks, maintenance facilities, warehouses, office space and acreage for trailer drop yards and parking, said Trent Cameron, Outpost’s founder and CEO. Outpost now has about 25 real estate “assets” in place across the US and plans to buy an additional 10 to 12 properties by the end of the year, Cameron said. The company has raised venture capital funding from GreenPoint Partners and Speedwagon Capital Partners, according to Crunchbase. The cost of the recent acquisitions was not disclosed. The goal of the moves is to provide flexible, scalable infrastructure for logistics, Cameron told the Journal of Commerce, accommodating expansion and countering disruption. “Freight demand shifts faster than fixed infrastructure,” he said. “Recent tariff policy changes reflect just how quickly the supply chain can move.” On-again, off-again import taxes and waves of freight arriving in the US are forcing shippers to rethink domestic transportation networks, and the impact is rippling through to motor carriers. Trucking companies need to be able to respond to changes in demand, routes, origin points and destinations as quickly as their shipper customers, and that can come down to having the right terminal at the right place and time. But finding a location, getting approval for construction and building a terminal can take years. That led less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers to jump at the opportunity to buy hundreds of terminals from bankrupt carrier Yellow following its collapse in 2023. Outpost sees itself as an alternative carriers can consider rather than buying or building facilities. “We don’t think there’s a need for companies to make long-term investments in facilities like terminals that aren’t very fluid,” Cameron said. Digital connections Outpost says it is attracting some large customers with its third-party approach to terminals, including Werner Enterprises, Prime, Landstar System and PAM Transport. However, this type of third-party, shared network can’t function without technology. “We’re not just building physical infrastructure, but a digital backbone,” Cameron said, with that backbone connecting the infrastructure, including visibility technology that tracks every vehicle entering and leaving a terminal. And although the primary customer is a truckload provider, Outpost is also working with LTL and intermodal operators. “We have a facility in Phoenix purchased from Yellow in January 2024 that has an LTL carrier using the cross dock and truckload and intermodal companies using maintenance and parking space,” Cameron said. “Everyone is cohabiting on this one outpost even though they’re in different modes of transportation.” The company also consults with the ultimate source of its business: the shipper. “We have shippers who want this type of option embedded in carrier contracts, and we have shippers with private fleets using the network,” Cameron said. “If more carriers join the network, we can make the network even denser, add more nodes, and give carriers and shippers more options.” Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .

Shipper need for agility fuels growth of US shared-terminal trucking network

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">As agricultural exports enter their traditional peak season, it is prudent to be proactive now — while there is still an empty container supply extant in North America. </div>

As agricultural exports enter their traditional peak season, it is prudent to be proactive now — while there is still an empty container supply extant in North America.

<div class="phx-topic">“Where Have All the Flowers Gone?” is a folk song written by American singer-songwriter Pete Seeger. Legend has it that he wrote it while on an airplane to play at Oberlin College, one of the few locations willing to defy the McCarthy hiring blacklist imposed on him. Subsequently, the song became a mainstay of the anti-war movement during the Vietnam War and has been covered by many artists and in many languages. The song utilizes the image of flowers and the cycle of life to depict the cyclical and destructive nature of war. And while I recognize that applying this metaphor to our industry’s cyclicality may be a step too far, I believe that the plaintive refrain, “Oh when will you/we ever learn; Oh, when will you/we ever learn?” certainly applies. In today’s transportation industry, there are very few of us that can remember the days of regulation when we struggled in an economy beset by stagflation. President Jimmy Carter then liberated our sector with deregulation. Because regulation — by design — was intended to ensure excess capacity, two decades of halcyon growth followed as this capacity was redeployed to productive applications. Along with globalization and outsourcing, logistics and supply chain management became industries in their own right, and intermodal was a key driver. However, about 25 years ago, the “free” capacity unleashed by deregulation had been consumed and growth needed to be supported by investment. Coincidentally, these changes took place against the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attack. A bipartisan blue-ribbon commission was established, and three years later, they released their report. The findings were extensive. The government was not prepared and did not know how to respond. Problems with intelligence collection, analysis, sharing across agencies, and a lack of coordination among federal agencies exacerbated the challenges. In fact, the whole structure represented a maze of siloed and disaggregated responsibilities. When I read the report, I was struck by the potential for a future commission assembled to write many of the same findings about the transportation network in our country. I actually wrote a white paper in 2004 claiming that it would be unnecessary to convene an investigation of the inevitable supply chain meltdown because it was already written. All that was necessary was to take the 9/11 report and replace “national security” with “supply chain.” <h3>COVID-19 drove changes </h3>Of course, our industry did nothing to address these structural shortcomings and muddled on until COVID-19 struck. At that time, it seemed that our entire industry adopted the “4C” excuse — everything was the fault of COVID, China, Congestion and Chassis. Everyone was surprised that such a terrible fate could befall our industry. Even worse, our industry seemed to be represented by our least qualified spokespeople and most of the media had no idea of basic facts. Somehow, we all survived that mess. Many of the problems impacted the entire network. The maelstrom of detention and demurrage bills gave rise to the Ocean Shipping Reform Act of 2022 (OSRA-22). It increased the authority of the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) to promote the growth and development of US exports through an ocean transportation system that is competitive, efficient and economical. Beyond its mandate addressing complaints about detention and demurrage charges, OSRA-22 prohibits common ocean carriers, marine terminal operators or ocean transportation intermediaries from unreasonably refusing cargo space when available or resorting to other unfair or unjustly discriminatory methods. These protections were welcomed by the export community. However, we have to recognize that a complaint process after the fact may be insufficient to provide adequate protection if there is no effective remedy available. At times of high demand (and rates) for imports from Asia to North America, ocean carriers frequently evacuate all containers as soon as their import cargo is devanned. This moots the question of available space because there may be vessel space — but no empty containers.  As agricultural exports enter their traditional peak season, we believe that it is prudent to be proactive now, while there is still an empty container supply extant in North America. The Agriculture Transportation Coalition convenes June 16 for its annual meeting. I am sure Executive Director Peter Friedmann will have this high on the agenda; we do not want to be wondering where all the containers have gone. Contact Ted Prince at <a href="mailto:ted@tricitiesintermodal.com">ted@tricitiesintermodal.com</a>.</div>

“Where Have All the Flowers Gone?” is a folk song written by American singer-songwriter Pete Seeger. Legend has it that he wrote it while on an airplane to play at Oberlin College, one of the few locations willing to defy the McCarthy hiring blacklist imposed on him. Subsequently, the song became a mainstay of the anti-war movement during the Vietnam War and has been covered by many artists and in many languages. The song utilizes the image of flowers and the cycle of life to depict the cyclical and destructive nature of war. And while I recognize that applying this metaphor to our industry’s cyclicality may be a step too far, I believe that the plaintive refrain, “Oh when will you/we ever learn; Oh, when will you/we ever learn?” certainly applies. In today’s transportation industry, there are very few of us that can remember the days of regulation when we struggled in an economy beset by stagflation. President Jimmy Carter then liberated our sector with deregulation. Because regulation — by design — was intended to ensure excess capacity, two decades of halcyon growth followed as this capacity was redeployed to productive applications. Along with globalization and outsourcing, logistics and supply chain management became industries in their own right, and intermodal was a key driver. However, about 25 years ago, the “free” capacity unleashed by deregulation had been consumed and growth needed to be supported by investment. Coincidentally, these changes took place against the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attack. A bipartisan blue-ribbon commission was established, and three years later, they released their report. The findings were extensive. The government was not prepared and did not know how to respond. Problems with intelligence collection, analysis, sharing across agencies, and a lack of coordination among federal agencies exacerbated the challenges. In fact, the whole structure represented a maze of siloed and disaggregated responsibilities. When I read the report, I was struck by the potential for a future commission assembled to write many of the same findings about the transportation network in our country. I actually wrote a white paper in 2004 claiming that it would be unnecessary to convene an investigation of the inevitable supply chain meltdown because it was already written. All that was necessary was to take the 9/11 report and replace “national security” with “supply chain.” COVID-19 drove changes Of course, our industry did nothing to address these structural shortcomings and muddled on until COVID-19 struck. At that time, it seemed that our entire industry adopted the “4C” excuse — everything was the fault of COVID, China, Congestion and Chassis. Everyone was surprised that such a terrible fate could befall our industry. Even worse, our industry seemed to be represented by our least qualified spokespeople and most of the media had no idea of basic facts. Somehow, we all survived that mess. Many of the problems impacted the entire network. The maelstrom of detention and demurrage bills gave rise to the Ocean Shipping Reform Act of 2022 (OSRA-22). It increased the authority of the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) to promote the growth and development of US exports through an ocean transportation system that is competitive, efficient and economical. Beyond its mandate addressing complaints about detention and demurrage charges, OSRA-22 prohibits common ocean carriers, marine terminal operators or ocean transportation intermediaries from unreasonably refusing cargo space when available or resorting to other unfair or unjustly discriminatory methods. These protections were welcomed by the export community. However, we have to recognize that a complaint process after the fact may be insufficient to provide adequate protection if there is no effective remedy available. At times of high demand (and rates) for imports from Asia to North America, ocean carriers frequently evacuate all containers as soon as their import cargo is devanned. This moots the question of available space because there may be vessel space — but no empty containers.  As agricultural exports enter their traditional peak season, we believe that it is prudent to be proactive now, while there is still an empty container supply extant in North America. The Agriculture Transportation Coalition convenes June 16 for its annual meeting. I am sure Executive Director Peter Friedmann will have this high on the agenda; we do not want to be wondering where all the containers have gone. Contact Ted Prince at ted@tricitiesintermodal.com .

Act now before we wonder where all the containers have gone

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Trump administration’s tariff policy is yet another milestone that has shaken the US economy over the past 60 years, writes Ted Prince. </div>

The Trump administration’s tariff policy is yet another milestone that has shaken the US economy over the past 60 years, writes Ted Prince.

<div class="phx-topic">Since the announcement of reciprocal tariffs on so-called “Liberation Day” last month, we have been bombarded by conflicting predictions of the possible benefits and disasters that may befall our country, our economy and our industry. What I find interesting is that the history of the past 60 years seems to have been forgotten. While there are many important dates, I will focus on four. <h3>Yanqui go home! </h3>I would start in April 1965, when President Lyndon Johnson deployed the Marines and 82nd Airborne to the Dominican Republic to quell a civil war that broke out after a military junta. While the intervention was intended to protect US nationals, mission creep led to the deployment of over 22,000 American troops. While the invasion successfully reinstalled a conservative government, it increased distrust of the US. At the same time, companies such as Hewlett Packard were rolling out a continuous pipeline of electronic innovations. Their intention was to near-shore manufacturing in Latin America; however, the prevalence of “Yanqui Go Home!” made them look elsewhere. Japan and then the “Four Tigers” (Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea) became the factory sites instead. The Vietnam War had become the first containerized war, and plentiful equipment was available to load back to the US. While electronics required factories, much of the manufacturing was cottage industries. For example, importers of blue jeans were buying from hundreds of small vendors. Ocean carrier consolidators would send pickup trucks into the New Territories to pick up loose articles of clothing (some which no doubt had been made in China) for consolidation at their facilities adjacent to the Kwai Tsing container terminals. <h3>Voluntary restraint </h3>In May 1981, with the American auto industry mired in recession, Japanese car makers agreed to “voluntary export restraint,” which limited exports of passenger cars to the US. However, at the same time, they implemented a strategy of “transplants,” whereby cars were assembled in the US. Some might consider this an example of “reshoring;” however, it is not that simple. Initially, the plants were built in Japan, then disassembled, shipped to the US, and reassembled. Most of the parts (CKD: cars knocked down) came from Japan, so actual US content — other than labor — was minimal. Over time, suppliers proliferated along Interstates 65 and 75 to support these plants. However, many of these were also Japanese transplants. Some were joint ventures with US partners, but many were just US subsidiaries of Japanese manufacturers. Barry Bluestone and Bennett Harrison described this phenomenon in their 1982 work, “The Deindustrialization of America: Plant Closings, Community Abandonment, and the Dismantling of Basic Industry.” They pointed out the irony that the Japanese were successfully investing in US industrial sectors that scarcely a decade ago were said to be declining, uncompetitive, and suffering from deindustrialization. <h3>The Plaza Accord </h3>The Plaza Accord in September 1985 effectively devalued the dollar against other major currencies. Initially, the US trade deficit worsened, as imports rose in price with a devalued dollar. However, the devaluation made US exports cheaper for its trading partners to purchase, which grew the market in goods and services — which are unaccounted for in the current administration’s calculation. <h3>China and the WTO </h3>Finally, in 2001, China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO). What followed was a massive dislocation in trade as China built world-class factories and world-class ports to ship goods throughout the world. Some of those factories have since relocated to nations with cheaper labor. However, a whole ecosystem of suppliers has grown up that supports the manufacturing and assembly of sophisticated products. China’s development took over 30 years. It was no shortcut. It was also the result of extensive industrial policy similar to what Japan and the Four Tigers had done previously. Most importantly, these policies did not deviate for decades and supported a long-term strategy whereby investment could be made with confidence. Our current politics are such that it is impossible to invest in today’s doctrine because it may no longer be applicable by the time the factory opens in three to eight years. In the past 30 years, trade has increased dramatically as a share of gross domestic product (GDP). However, while most economists believe that this has been good for the economy, the general public’s outlook is less sanguine. In large part, this is because trade’s impacts can vary widely: localized changes in jobs (both gains and losses) and reduced prices of goods and services. Freight is inextricably linked to trade. It has transformed our industry. We will no doubt have a ringside seat to the policy that is evolving. Contact Ted Prince at <a href="mailto:ted@tricitiesintermodal.com">ted@tricitiesintermodal.com</a>. </div>

Since the announcement of reciprocal tariffs on so-called “Liberation Day” last month, we have been bombarded by conflicting predictions of the possible benefits and disasters that may befall our country, our economy and our industry. What I find interesting is that the history of the past 60 years seems to have been forgotten. While there are many important dates, I will focus on four. Yanqui go home! I would start in April 1965, when President Lyndon Johnson deployed the Marines and 82nd Airborne to the Dominican Republic to quell a civil war that broke out after a military junta. While the intervention was intended to protect US nationals, mission creep led to the deployment of over 22,000 American troops. While the invasion successfully reinstalled a conservative government, it increased distrust of the US. At the same time, companies such as Hewlett Packard were rolling out a continuous pipeline of electronic innovations. Their intention was to near-shore manufacturing in Latin America; however, the prevalence of “Yanqui Go Home!” made them look elsewhere. Japan and then the “Four Tigers” (Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea) became the factory sites instead. The Vietnam War had become the first containerized war, and plentiful equipment was available to load back to the US. While electronics required factories, much of the manufacturing was cottage industries. For example, importers of blue jeans were buying from hundreds of small vendors. Ocean carrier consolidators would send pickup trucks into the New Territories to pick up loose articles of clothing (some which no doubt had been made in China) for consolidation at their facilities adjacent to the Kwai Tsing container terminals. Voluntary restraint In May 1981, with the American auto industry mired in recession, Japanese car makers agreed to “voluntary export restraint,” which limited exports of passenger cars to the US. However, at the same time, they implemented a strategy of “transplants,” whereby cars were assembled in the US. Some might consider this an example of “reshoring;” however, it is not that simple. Initially, the plants were built in Japan, then disassembled, shipped to the US, and reassembled. Most of the parts (CKD: cars knocked down) came from Japan, so actual US content — other than labor — was minimal. Over time, suppliers proliferated along Interstates 65 and 75 to support these plants. However, many of these were also Japanese transplants. Some were joint ventures with US partners, but many were just US subsidiaries of Japanese manufacturers. Barry Bluestone and Bennett Harrison described this phenomenon in their 1982 work, “The Deindustrialization of America: Plant Closings, Community Abandonment, and the Dismantling of Basic Industry.” They pointed out the irony that the Japanese were successfully investing in US industrial sectors that scarcely a decade ago were said to be declining, uncompetitive, and suffering from deindustrialization. The Plaza Accord The Plaza Accord in September 1985 effectively devalued the dollar against other major currencies. Initially, the US trade deficit worsened, as imports rose in price with a devalued dollar. However, the devaluation made US exports cheaper for its trading partners to purchase, which grew the market in goods and services — which are unaccounted for in the current administration’s calculation. China and the WTO Finally, in 2001, China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO). What followed was a massive dislocation in trade as China built world-class factories and world-class ports to ship goods throughout the world. Some of those factories have since relocated to nations with cheaper labor. However, a whole ecosystem of suppliers has grown up that supports the manufacturing and assembly of sophisticated products. China’s development took over 30 years. It was no shortcut. It was also the result of extensive industrial policy similar to what Japan and the Four Tigers had done previously. Most importantly, these policies did not deviate for decades and supported a long-term strategy whereby investment could be made with confidence. Our current politics are such that it is impossible to invest in today’s doctrine because it may no longer be applicable by the time the factory opens in three to eight years. In the past 30 years, trade has increased dramatically as a share of gross domestic product (GDP). However, while most economists believe that this has been good for the economy, the general public’s outlook is less sanguine. In large part, this is because trade’s impacts can vary widely: localized changes in jobs (both gains and losses) and reduced prices of goods and services. Freight is inextricably linked to trade. It has transformed our industry. We will no doubt have a ringside seat to the policy that is evolving. Contact Ted Prince at ted@tricitiesintermodal.com .

A history lesson while we watch current US trade policy unfold

S&P Global Platts editors engaging with market participants to assess the current value of freight-all-kinds (FAK) rates on major container trades produce container spot rates. The rates include bunker adjustment factors, general rate increases and emergency rare restoration. They also include low-sulfur fuel, equipment imbalance and repositioning surcharges. The rates exclude terminal handling, port security, overweight container, delivery, and detention and demurrage charges. [Platts](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights)

North Asia to US West and East Coast container spot rates (Platts)

Platts North Asia to US East and West Coasts Weekly Gateway

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Cargo landing at the country’s ports in July will be 20% higher than the forecast made just last month by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. </div>

Cargo landing at the country’s ports in July will be 20% higher than the forecast made just last month by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

<div class="phx-topic">US retailers on Monday significantly upgraded import projections through August amid the temporary pauses in effect on the so-called reciprocal tariffs implemented by the Trump administration. Cargo landing at the country’s ports in July will be 20% higher than the <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-retailers-project-first-year-over-year-import-cut-in-19-months-as-tariffs-bite-6001817">forecast made in May</a> by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates. Their June Global Port Tracker (GPT) shows the first upgrade to US import projections since February, before the first round of tariffs were announced in April. “Tariff reductions will lead to a surge in imports in June through August as importers take advantage of the various 90-day pauses,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. A pause on higher tariffs on most of the US’ trading partners is in effect until July 9, while the pause on the 145% tariff on imports from China is due to expire Aug. 14. The GPT’s updated forecast calls for July US imports of 2.13 million TEUs — up 20.3% from last month’s GPT but still well below the 2.32 million TEUs brought in during July 2024. Retailers expect August imports to reach 1.98 million TEUs, up 8.8% from May’s forecast. “[Shippers] are now looking to get those orders and cargo moving in order <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ocean-carriers-bring-in-more-trans-pacific-container-services-amid-rate-surge-6012725">to bring as much merchandise</a> into the country as they can before the reciprocal tariff and additional China tariff pauses end in July and August,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. June import projections were also upgraded from the May GPT, with retailers expecting 17.5% higher volumes at 2.01 million TEUs. Preliminary May volumes of 1.91 million TEUs are expected to be 5.5% higher than forecast last month. <h3>A soft Q4 </h3>But the summer surge is expected to end given the uncertainty over what will happen once the temporary tariff reprieves expire. Retailers slightly downgraded import expectations for September to 1.78 million TEUs, which would also be a 21.6% drop compared with the year-ago month. And in its initial forecast for October, the GPT projects imports of 1.8 million TEUs, almost 20% lower than October 2024. “The peak for the winter holidays will come early this year, making it simultaneous with the peak for the back-to-school season,” Hackett said. “If higher tariffs are not delayed again, we can expect the final four months of the year to see declining volumes of imports.” The updated forecast brings the first-half projection for US imports to 12.54 million TEUs, up 3.4% from expectations made in May and 3.7% higher than actual first-half 2024 volumes. The GPT is published monthly using import data collected from 13 ports on the US East, West and Gulf coasts. Contact Laura Robb at <a href="mailto:Laura.Robb@spglobal.com">laura.robb@spglobal.com</a>.  </div>

US retailers on Monday significantly upgraded import projections through August amid the temporary pauses in effect on the so-called reciprocal tariffs implemented by the Trump administration. Cargo landing at the country’s ports in July will be 20% higher than the forecast made in May by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates. Their June Global Port Tracker (GPT) shows the first upgrade to US import projections since February, before the first round of tariffs were announced in April. “Tariff reductions will lead to a surge in imports in June through August as importers take advantage of the various 90-day pauses,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. A pause on higher tariffs on most of the US’ trading partners is in effect until July 9, while the pause on the 145% tariff on imports from China is due to expire Aug. 14. The GPT’s updated forecast calls for July US imports of 2.13 million TEUs — up 20.3% from last month’s GPT but still well below the 2.32 million TEUs brought in during July 2024. Retailers expect August imports to reach 1.98 million TEUs, up 8.8% from May’s forecast. “[Shippers] are now looking to get those orders and cargo moving in order to bring as much merchandise into the country as they can before the reciprocal tariff and additional China tariff pauses end in July and August,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. June import projections were also upgraded from the May GPT, with retailers expecting 17.5% higher volumes at 2.01 million TEUs. Preliminary May volumes of 1.91 million TEUs are expected to be 5.5% higher than forecast last month. A soft Q4 But the summer surge is expected to end given the uncertainty over what will happen once the temporary tariff reprieves expire. Retailers slightly downgraded import expectations for September to 1.78 million TEUs, which would also be a 21.6% drop compared with the year-ago month. And in its initial forecast for October, the GPT projects imports of 1.8 million TEUs, almost 20% lower than October 2024. “The peak for the winter holidays will come early this year, making it simultaneous with the peak for the back-to-school season,” Hackett said. “If higher tariffs are not delayed again, we can expect the final four months of the year to see declining volumes of imports.” The updated forecast brings the first-half projection for US imports to 12.54 million TEUs, up 3.4% from expectations made in May and 3.7% higher than actual first-half 2024 volumes. The GPT is published monthly using import data collected from 13 ports on the US East, West and Gulf coasts. Contact Laura Robb at laura.robb@spglobal.com . 

Pause on tariffs prompts US retailers to upgrade summer import forecast

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">TRAC Intermodal, DCLI and FlexiVan Leasing began unstacking chassis shortly after the Trump administration last month announced a 90-day pause on the 145% tariffs on Chinese imports.</div>

TRAC Intermodal, DCLI and FlexiVan Leasing began unstacking chassis shortly after the Trump administration last month announced a 90-day pause on the 145% tariffs on Chinese imports.

<div class="phx-topic">As an expected wave of imports from China begins arriving at US ports in the coming weeks, the country’s three largest marine chassis providers say they are pulling idle equipment from storage, inspecting and repairing units, and repositioning chassis to key inland hubs to avoid a repeat of the shortages seen during the pandemic. TRAC Intermodal, DCLI and FlexiVan Leasing, the US’ top three lessors by fleet size, respectively, began unstacking chassis shortly after the Trump administration last month announced a 90-day pause on the 145% tariffs on Chinese imports. TRAC owns more than 200,000 marine chassis, while DCLI has about 140,000 units and FlexiVan about 120,000. None of the companies disclosed the number of chassis they’ve taken out of long-term storage, but each said the total is in the “tens of thousands.” “Our current utilization, our working fleet, is rather soft,” said Val Noel, chief operating officer of TRAC. “But we think this could be a little bit like a tsunami, and we want to have extra capacity to make sure we don’t have any service disruptions.” TRAC will focus on repairing and positioning chassis in Chicago, Dallas and Memphis. Noel said chassis placed into Memphis can be redeployed to Kansas City, St. Louis and Omaha, if necessary, while chassis in Chicago can be redirected to the Ohio Valley. DCLI began unstacking equipment in Southern California days after the tariff pause announcement and has since expanded the process to inland locations including Chicago, Dallas and Memphis. “We have safety stocks in place in key markets and are working with our vendors to ensure we have the repair capacity necessary to respond to this demand,” said Mike O’Malley, DCLI’s senior vice president of government and public relations. FlexiVan, which is exiting Southern California’s Pool of Pools, has focused on ensuring chassis availability for its core partner, Ocean Network Express (ONE). “[We are] working continuously to get pool chassis into a ready to use condition and fleeted into our private pool for ONE and other customers,” Flexi said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce. FlexiVan in late April opened its new private chassis pool serving the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, with FlexiVan Pool “designed to enhance our service capabilities for carriers and customers.” <h3>Getting repairs done now </h3>The chassis providers emphasized that pulling equipment out of long-term storage is not a one-day process. Units stacked for months, sometimes years, must undergo full inspections and safety checks, and in many cases, minor repairs before they are roadworthy. It can take several weeks to check lighting systems, brake lines, tires and structural components that can rust, corrode or suffer other weather-related fatigue. Technicians must also be available in sufficient numbers, and often work overtime, to meet repair deadlines. DCLI said it’s better prepared than during the pandemic because it did not significantly scale back repair operations with repair vendors when the market softened. DCLI said it learned how important it is to keep mechanics working even as volumes soften because widespread layoffs require rehiring and training later, which makes it difficult to complete repairs before a cargo surge. As a result, DCLI believes it can quickly inspect, repair and certify idle chassis without having to rebuild labor capacity from scratch. <h3>Communication is key </h3>Knowing when and where to deploy repaired units is crucial to prevent equipment shortages. Chassis providers rely on cargo forecasts from ocean carriers, railroads and shippers and data from the US Department of Transportation’s Freight Logistics Optimization Works (FLOW) initiative to position chassis ahead of surges. Under normal conditions, imports going to secondary cities such as Cincinnati, Columbus or St. Louis can be part of a block within a larger train to Chicago or Kansas City. During a surge, however, those cities may receive dedicated trains with double or triple the usual number of containers, flooding local terminals and straining chassis availability. “That’s one of the things that has beaten us in the past,” Noel acknowledged. “Normally a city might get a 3,000-foot block of containers, and during a surge it’s a 10,000-foot train. Both of our western roads (BNSF Railway and Union Pacific Railroad) have been super in partnering with us, letting us know what’s coming so we can be prepared.” The landscape has also changed in recent years in ways that may increase supply chain resiliency. More trucking companies and cargo owners now operate private chassis fleets, reducing their reliance on shared pool equipment. Railroads have also adjusted terminal operations, placing more import containers into grounded stacks, allowing cargo owners to retrieve loads using their own equipment and easing pressure on the public pools managed by DCLI, TRAC, and FlexiVan. Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

As an expected wave of imports from China begins arriving at US ports in the coming weeks, the country’s three largest marine chassis providers say they are pulling idle equipment from storage, inspecting and repairing units, and repositioning chassis to key inland hubs to avoid a repeat of the shortages seen during the pandemic. TRAC Intermodal, DCLI and FlexiVan Leasing, the US’ top three lessors by fleet size, respectively, began unstacking chassis shortly after the Trump administration last month announced a 90-day pause on the 145% tariffs on Chinese imports. TRAC owns more than 200,000 marine chassis, while DCLI has about 140,000 units and FlexiVan about 120,000. None of the companies disclosed the number of chassis they’ve taken out of long-term storage, but each said the total is in the “tens of thousands.” “Our current utilization, our working fleet, is rather soft,” said Val Noel, chief operating officer of TRAC. “But we think this could be a little bit like a tsunami, and we want to have extra capacity to make sure we don’t have any service disruptions.” TRAC will focus on repairing and positioning chassis in Chicago, Dallas and Memphis. Noel said chassis placed into Memphis can be redeployed to Kansas City, St. Louis and Omaha, if necessary, while chassis in Chicago can be redirected to the Ohio Valley. DCLI began unstacking equipment in Southern California days after the tariff pause announcement and has since expanded the process to inland locations including Chicago, Dallas and Memphis. “We have safety stocks in place in key markets and are working with our vendors to ensure we have the repair capacity necessary to respond to this demand,” said Mike O’Malley, DCLI’s senior vice president of government and public relations. FlexiVan, which is exiting Southern California’s Pool of Pools, has focused on ensuring chassis availability for its core partner, Ocean Network Express (ONE). “[We are] working continuously to get pool chassis into a ready to use condition and fleeted into our private pool for ONE and other customers,” Flexi said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce. FlexiVan in late April opened its new private chassis pool serving the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, with FlexiVan Pool “designed to enhance our service capabilities for carriers and customers.” Getting repairs done now The chassis providers emphasized that pulling equipment out of long-term storage is not a one-day process. Units stacked for months, sometimes years, must undergo full inspections and safety checks, and in many cases, minor repairs before they are roadworthy. It can take several weeks to check lighting systems, brake lines, tires and structural components that can rust, corrode or suffer other weather-related fatigue. Technicians must also be available in sufficient numbers, and often work overtime, to meet repair deadlines. DCLI said it’s better prepared than during the pandemic because it did not significantly scale back repair operations with repair vendors when the market softened. DCLI said it learned how important it is to keep mechanics working even as volumes soften because widespread layoffs require rehiring and training later, which makes it difficult to complete repairs before a cargo surge. As a result, DCLI believes it can quickly inspect, repair and certify idle chassis without having to rebuild labor capacity from scratch. Communication is key Knowing when and where to deploy repaired units is crucial to prevent equipment shortages. Chassis providers rely on cargo forecasts from ocean carriers, railroads and shippers and data from the US Department of Transportation’s Freight Logistics Optimization Works (FLOW) initiative to position chassis ahead of surges. Under normal conditions, imports going to secondary cities such as Cincinnati, Columbus or St. Louis can be part of a block within a larger train to Chicago or Kansas City. During a surge, however, those cities may receive dedicated trains with double or triple the usual number of containers, flooding local terminals and straining chassis availability. “That’s one of the things that has beaten us in the past,” Noel acknowledged. “Normally a city might get a 3,000-foot block of containers, and during a surge it’s a 10,000-foot train. Both of our western roads (BNSF Railway and Union Pacific Railroad) have been super in partnering with us, letting us know what’s coming so we can be prepared.” The landscape has also changed in recent years in ways that may increase supply chain resiliency. More trucking companies and cargo owners now operate private chassis fleets, reducing their reliance on shared pool equipment. Railroads have also adjusted terminal operations, placing more import containers into grounded stacks, allowing cargo owners to retrieve loads using their own equipment and easing pressure on the public pools managed by DCLI, TRAC, and FlexiVan. Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

US chassis providers getting equipment ready for US import surge

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">But a rise in demand for general cargo will not be enough to offset the sharp decline in e-commerce shipments that followed the US clampdown in May on low-value imports from China. </div>

But a rise in demand for general cargo will not be enough to offset the sharp decline in e-commerce shipments that followed the US clampdown in May on low-value imports from China.

<div class="phx-topic">MUNICH — Trans-Pacific air cargo demand is showing signs of recovery amid restocking efforts in the US, with airlines bringing back some of the freighter capacity that had been shifted out of the trade lane to serve strengthening general cargo markets. But the volume generated by seasonal tech product launches, semiconductors, perishables and pharma — and boosted by shippers being forced into the air <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/pause-in-tariff-hikes-drives-big-gains-in-trans-pacific-spot-rates-6017111">as China-US ocean space tightens</a> — will not replace the massive demand for e-commerce that filled dozens of freighters per day, according to Airbus. “E-commerce has been driving freight demand over the past years, and the big question out there is what’s going to happen to it,” Oliver von Tronchin, head of freighter marketing at the French aircraft manufacturer, told an Air Cargo Europe panel at the Transport Logistic exhibition this week. “What we are looking at is the change to the de minimis rule and the European equivalent, and if a $2.75 item is left with $100 flat fee from the US, people will not buy that item,” he added. After eliminating the duty-free exemption for low-value shipments from China valued at under $800 on May 2, the US on May 14 reduced the de minimis tariff on the low-value imports from 120% to 54%. Items sent via post from China to the US will be charged a flat fee of $100, regardless of value. The European Union is proposing a €2 handling fee for small parcels under €150 from China that would be paid by online retailers, such as Shein and Temu, but Brussels has not set an implementation date. In 2024, e-commerce shipments accounted for about 50% of China-to-US air freight volume, according to rate benchmarking platform Xeneta. Since the duty-free status of low-value Chinese imports was revoked in May, the volume has declined. The drop in trans-Pacific air freight is a leading factor in the International Air Transport Association’s (IATA’s) forecast of little to no growth in global air cargo volume for 2025, a huge climb down from the 12% jump in year over year demand in 2024. <h3>Challenge to match supply and demand </h3>Airlines are trying to match supply with demand, but those on the trans-Pacific are not being helped by the policy changes emanating from the White House. China-US tonnage in mid-May was down 25% year over year, with freighter capacity down 40%, according to Cargo Facts Consulting. As volume began to recover over the last two weeks, it encouraged carriers to bring back freighters, but with e-commerce demand muted, most of the returning lift was serving general cargo. C.H. Robinson noted in a market update this week that airlines were being cautious in adding capacity as demand recovers, with that balancing act expected to tighten available space and push rates higher throughout June, especially for non-priority shipments. The forwarder warned that end-of-quarter demand and tariff deadlines will likely create bottlenecks for last-minute bookings on China-US routes and advised shippers to explore alternate routes through Southeast Asia and book space two to three weeks in advance. The rising demand on the trans-Pacific can be seen in data from air cargo analyst Rotate, which shows an 11% increase in air cargo capacity on the Asia-North America route last week compared with the average capacity deployed over the previous four weeks. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="d1642275-60f0-447f-84f8-8fd17fcb6d8f"></dynamic-object></div>China to US spot rates are rising in tandem with the increasing demand; as of June 1, they were up 14% from the first week of May at $4.31 per kilogram, according to Xeneta. Nadeem Sultan, senior vice president of cargo planning and freighters at Emirates SkyCargo, said general air freight volume was growing on Asia-North America but airlines remained in a holding pattern regarding the tariffs. “We are seeing that demand rise, but right now, everybody is waiting until mid-August when the 90-day pause in [China] tariffs ends to see what the permanent rule is going to be,” he said. “Depending on what the politicians say over the coming weeks, corporate companies are going to decide how high the risk is and whether they should be frontloading or not,” Sultan added. “But it is too early for them to make that decision now and I would say by the middle of July we will have more clarity.” <h3>E-commerce is ‘a way of life’ </h3>While e-commerce volume is currently under pressure, airlines and aircraft manufacturers at Air Cargo Europe were bullish on future air cargo demand. “Overall, e-commerce is still robust and will still be a sizable driver within air freight in the years ahead,” von Tronchin said. “It has become a way of life, and we’re used to that way of life, and I don’t think any of us are necessarily going to change it.” Jannie Davel, CEO of MSC Air Cargo, agreed, noting that e-commerce would remain a core component of air freight, and that the market would rebalance, although not to the high demand of the past. Davel added that shippers of general cargo were also adapting to changing trade flows as the tariffs forced Asian manufacturers to adjust production strategies. “We are seeing a lot of high-tech manufacturing shifting out of China to South Asia, so even if the tariffs are maintained, the trade will still be there,” he said. “It will maybe take some time to adjust, but then it will balance out.” The bullish view on air cargo demand was shared by Boeing and Airbus. Even with the US-China trade war roiling international markets and changing demand patterns, the plane makers have left their 20-year market forecasts unchanged. John Purdoch, director of product marketing of freighters at Boeing, said all the fundamentals in the market remained in place to support long-term growth. “Over the next 20 years, almost 3,000 new freighters will enter the market in all segments, and over 800 of those in the large, wide-body space,” Purdoch said. “We believe we are on a long-term growth path of 4% growth year over year for the next 20 years.” Von Tronchin said Airbus was “in the long-term game,” adding that the current disruptions to the market were temporary. “Our global market forecast is for 20 years, and as we saw in COVID-19 and after the financial crisis, air cargo has always come back to a trend of 3% to 4% growth per year,” he said. “Air cargo will remain a growth industry, independent of the short-term effects we are seeing.” Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

MUNICH — Trans-Pacific air cargo demand is showing signs of recovery amid restocking efforts in the US, with airlines bringing back some of the freighter capacity that had been shifted out of the trade lane to serve strengthening general cargo markets. But the volume generated by seasonal tech product launches, semiconductors, perishables and pharma — and boosted by shippers being forced into the air as China-US ocean space tightens — will not replace the massive demand for e-commerce that filled dozens of freighters per day, according to Airbus. “E-commerce has been driving freight demand over the past years, and the big question out there is what’s going to happen to it,” Oliver von Tronchin, head of freighter marketing at the French aircraft manufacturer, told an Air Cargo Europe panel at the Transport Logistic exhibition this week. “What we are looking at is the change to the de minimis rule and the European equivalent, and if a $2.75 item is left with $100 flat fee from the US, people will not buy that item,” he added. After eliminating the duty-free exemption for low-value shipments from China valued at under $800 on May 2, the US on May 14 reduced the de minimis tariff on the low-value imports from 120% to 54%. Items sent via post from China to the US will be charged a flat fee of $100, regardless of value. The European Union is proposing a €2 handling fee for small parcels under €150 from China that would be paid by online retailers, such as Shein and Temu, but Brussels has not set an implementation date. In 2024, e-commerce shipments accounted for about 50% of China-to-US air freight volume, according to rate benchmarking platform Xeneta. Since the duty-free status of low-value Chinese imports was revoked in May, the volume has declined. The drop in trans-Pacific air freight is a leading factor in the International Air Transport Association’s (IATA’s) forecast of little to no growth in global air cargo volume for 2025, a huge climb down from the 12% jump in year over year demand in 2024. Challenge to match supply and demand Airlines are trying to match supply with demand, but those on the trans-Pacific are not being helped by the policy changes emanating from the White House. China-US tonnage in mid-May was down 25% year over year, with freighter capacity down 40%, according to Cargo Facts Consulting. As volume began to recover over the last two weeks, it encouraged carriers to bring back freighters, but with e-commerce demand muted, most of the returning lift was serving general cargo. C.H. Robinson noted in a market update this week that airlines were being cautious in adding capacity as demand recovers, with that balancing act expected to tighten available space and push rates higher throughout June, especially for non-priority shipments. The forwarder warned that end-of-quarter demand and tariff deadlines will likely create bottlenecks for last-minute bookings on China-US routes and advised shippers to explore alternate routes through Southeast Asia and book space two to three weeks in advance. The rising demand on the trans-Pacific can be seen in data from air cargo analyst Rotate, which shows an 11% increase in air cargo capacity on the Asia-North America route last week compared with the average capacity deployed over the previous four weeks. China to US spot rates are rising in tandem with the increasing demand; as of June 1, they were up 14% from the first week of May at $4.31 per kilogram, according to Xeneta. Nadeem Sultan, senior vice president of cargo planning and freighters at Emirates SkyCargo, said general air freight volume was growing on Asia-North America but airlines remained in a holding pattern regarding the tariffs. “We are seeing that demand rise, but right now, everybody is waiting until mid-August when the 90-day pause in [China] tariffs ends to see what the permanent rule is going to be,” he said. “Depending on what the politicians say over the coming weeks, corporate companies are going to decide how high the risk is and whether they should be frontloading or not,” Sultan added. “But it is too early for them to make that decision now and I would say by the middle of July we will have more clarity.” E-commerce is ‘a way of life’ While e-commerce volume is currently under pressure, airlines and aircraft manufacturers at Air Cargo Europe were bullish on future air cargo demand. “Overall, e-commerce is still robust and will still be a sizable driver within air freight in the years ahead,” von Tronchin said. “It has become a way of life, and we’re used to that way of life, and I don’t think any of us are necessarily going to change it.” Jannie Davel, CEO of MSC Air Cargo, agreed, noting that e-commerce would remain a core component of air freight, and that the market would rebalance, although not to the high demand of the past. Davel added that shippers of general cargo were also adapting to changing trade flows as the tariffs forced Asian manufacturers to adjust production strategies. “We are seeing a lot of high-tech manufacturing shifting out of China to South Asia, so even if the tariffs are maintained, the trade will still be there,” he said. “It will maybe take some time to adjust, but then it will balance out.” The bullish view on air cargo demand was shared by Boeing and Airbus. Even with the US-China trade war roiling international markets and changing demand patterns, the plane makers have left their 20-year market forecasts unchanged. John Purdoch, director of product marketing of freighters at Boeing, said all the fundamentals in the market remained in place to support long-term growth. “Over the next 20 years, almost 3,000 new freighters will enter the market in all segments, and over 800 of those in the large, wide-body space,” Purdoch said. “We believe we are on a long-term growth path of 4% growth year over year for the next 20 years.” Von Tronchin said Airbus was “in the long-term game,” adding that the current disruptions to the market were temporary. “Our global market forecast is for 20 years, and as we saw in COVID-19 and after the financial crisis, air cargo has always come back to a trend of 3% to 4% growth per year,” he said. “Air cargo will remain a growth industry, independent of the short-term effects we are seeing.” Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Signs of air cargo recovery on the trans-Pacific as freighter aircraft return

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The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

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Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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Filling the Supply Chain Education Gap with LTL Education Courses

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Quarterly Intelligence

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">While just 2% to 3% of global container traffic transits the key chokepoint, any restrictions would further tie up global vessel capacity and cut off the ports of Jebel Ali and Abu Dhabi. </div>

While just 2% to 3% of global container traffic transits the key chokepoint, any restrictions would further tie up global vessel capacity and cut off the ports of Jebel Ali and Abu Dhabi.

<div class="phx-topic">The Iranian government’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz amid Israel’s attack on the country would tie up already stretched global container capacity, cut off Jebel Ali and Abu Dhabi ports and put upward pressure on bunker fuel costs. Just 2% to 3% of global container traffic moves through the vital chokepoint for crude oil transport, according to data from Container Trade Statistics (CTS). Nonetheless, a restriction on container traffic through the strait, making deployed tonnage ineffective, would put upward pressure on freight rates and extend transit times. Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis warned of major problems for container shipping should the strait be closed. “At the time of writing this, the two countries are exchanging continuous barrages of missiles and drones,” Sea-Intelligence CEO Alan Murphy wrote in the Sunday Spotlight newsletter. “For now, this has not led to any impact on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and we should hope this to not become the case. If that happens, it will have a significant impact on container shipping flows to the major transshipment hubs in the region.” Dubai’s Jebel Ali was the 10th largest global container port as measured by volume in 2024, according to Alphaliner, while Khalifa is Abu Dhabi’s flagship container port. The container shipping market had already been stretched due to hostilities in the region, with container lines diverting away from the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea since late 2023 because of attacks from Houthi militants operating in Yemen. Most recently, carriers have repositioned capacity back to the trans-Pacific to handle rebounding Asia import volumes amid a pause in US tariffs. The idling of the global fleet is under 1% and the charter market for container ships remains elevated, according to analyst Alphaliner, reflecting stretched container capacity from not just Red Sea diversions, but port congestion in Europe, and, to a lesser degree, in Asia. According to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, more than 17 million barrels of crude oil each day move through the Strait of Hormuz, coming not just from Iran, but from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE and Qatar. That is more than 20% of daily global crude production. “If the Strait of Hormuz was to close, in the midterm it would be disruptive to the oil and bunker industry if they’re not able to get crude product transported out of the Persian Gulf, which is going to lead to a price disruption,” said Michael Aldwell, Kuehne +Nagel’s executive vice president of sea logistics. “But stockpiles are not low, and I think overall, it would have to be closed for a longer period of time before it impacted prices in the longer term.” Crude oil prices, which jumped 7% Friday after Israel’s initial attack on Iran, were softer in early trading Monday. Benchmark Brent crude was trading at $71.37 per barrel, down about 4%, according to Bloomberg. Contact Mark Szakonyi at <a href="mailto:mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com">mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The Iranian government’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz amid Israel’s attack on the country would tie up already stretched global container capacity, cut off Jebel Ali and Abu Dhabi ports and put upward pressure on bunker fuel costs. Just 2% to 3% of global container traffic moves through the vital chokepoint for crude oil transport, according to data from Container Trade Statistics (CTS). Nonetheless, a restriction on container traffic through the strait, making deployed tonnage ineffective, would put upward pressure on freight rates and extend transit times. Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis warned of major problems for container shipping should the strait be closed. “At the time of writing this, the two countries are exchanging continuous barrages of missiles and drones,” Sea-Intelligence CEO Alan Murphy wrote in the Sunday Spotlight newsletter. “For now, this has not led to any impact on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and we should hope this to not become the case. If that happens, it will have a significant impact on container shipping flows to the major transshipment hubs in the region.” Dubai’s Jebel Ali was the 10th largest global container port as measured by volume in 2024, according to Alphaliner, while Khalifa is Abu Dhabi’s flagship container port. The container shipping market had already been stretched due to hostilities in the region, with container lines diverting away from the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea since late 2023 because of attacks from Houthi militants operating in Yemen. Most recently, carriers have repositioned capacity back to the trans-Pacific to handle rebounding Asia import volumes amid a pause in US tariffs. The idling of the global fleet is under 1% and the charter market for container ships remains elevated, according to analyst Alphaliner, reflecting stretched container capacity from not just Red Sea diversions, but port congestion in Europe, and, to a lesser degree, in Asia. According to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, more than 17 million barrels of crude oil each day move through the Strait of Hormuz, coming not just from Iran, but from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE and Qatar. That is more than 20% of daily global crude production. “If the Strait of Hormuz was to close, in the midterm it would be disruptive to the oil and bunker industry if they’re not able to get crude product transported out of the Persian Gulf, which is going to lead to a price disruption,” said Michael Aldwell, Kuehne +Nagel’s executive vice president of sea logistics. “But stockpiles are not low, and I think overall, it would have to be closed for a longer period of time before it impacted prices in the longer term.” Crude oil prices, which jumped 7% Friday after Israel’s initial attack on Iran, were softer in early trading Monday. Benchmark Brent crude was trading at $71.37 per barrel, down about 4%, according to Bloomberg. Contact Mark Szakonyi at mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com .

Closure of Strait of Hormuz would further stretch global container capacity

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Sea-Intelligence said elevated freight rates are drawing small carriers to the eastbound trade lane, but the additional capacity should dwindle by mid-August. </div>

Sea-Intelligence said elevated freight rates are drawing small carriers to the eastbound trade lane, but the additional capacity should dwindle by mid-August.

<div class="phx-topic">Niche container lines are ramping up weekly capacity in the trans-Pacific at a rate similar to the surge of 2021 and 2022, drawn by the lure of strong ocean freight rates. But that capacity is expected to quickly ebb as rates ease throughout the summer, according to consultancy Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis. Sea-Intelligence said Thursday it expects niche ocean carriers to provide 4.6% of the weekly capacity in the trans-Pacific by the end of June. That would top the 4.5% those carriers deployed at the start of September 2021. The draw for the niche carriers is the strength in spot freight rates, Sea-Intelligence said, although those rates have <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/asia-uswc-spot-rates-weakening-as-vessel-overcapacity-takes-hold-6022847">already started to soften amid the broader injection of fresh capacity</a>. The North Asia-to-US West Coast trade lane saw spot ocean freight rates at $5,633 per FEU as of June 11, down 7% on the week, according to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Spot freight rates had risen threefold since bottoming out at $1,600 in late March. “During the height of the pandemic, the [Asia-North America West Coast (NAWC)] trade lane saw a slew of new entrants — carriers which had no previous footprint on Asia-NAWC and were only there to seize an opportunity that had presented itself in the form of unnaturally high freight rates,” Sea-Intelligence Chief Executive Alan Murphy said. Murphy added that capacity “is back at the level” seen during the height of the pandemic. “This means that the current market conditions are such that these new entrants feel that there is an opportunity reminiscent of the global pandemic,” he said. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="e8c13a3e-9f5a-412f-8741-adbf5e1a7779"></dynamic-object></div>Some niche carriers have remained in the trans-Pacific since 2022, seeking to offer regularly scheduled liner service instead of ad hoc calls. SeaLead Shipping and T.S. Lines launched <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/two-niche-ocean-carriers-team-up-in-trans-pacific-as-rates-remain-high-5703158">a jointly-operated trans-Pacific service</a> into the Port of Long Beach almost one year ago when freight rates hovered near $6,000 per FEU. Hede Shipping has also regularly offered <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/chinese-niche-carrier-to-launch-shanghai-los-angeles-expedited-service-next-week-5222119">a premium express service</a> to Los Angeles since March 2024. However, Sea-Intelligence sees the current surge in niche carrier capacity ending faster than it did during 2021–22. Sea-Intelligence data shows that weekly niche carriers will account for 3.8% of capacity by the end of July, with that amount dropping to 2.6% by mid-August. The drawdown coincides with expectations that <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/pause-in-tariff-hikes-drives-big-gains-in-trans-pacific-spot-rates-6017111">imports from Asia will peak around late summer</a> as the Trump administration’s 90-day reprieve on Chinese tariffs expires. “If history is anything to go by, we will see these carriers remove capacity as quickly as it was introduced once the market conditions start to normalize,” Murphy said. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Niche container lines are ramping up weekly capacity in the trans-Pacific at a rate similar to the surge of 2021 and 2022, drawn by the lure of strong ocean freight rates. But that capacity is expected to quickly ebb as rates ease throughout the summer, according to consultancy Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis. Sea-Intelligence said Thursday it expects niche ocean carriers to provide 4.6% of the weekly capacity in the trans-Pacific by the end of June. That would top the 4.5% those carriers deployed at the start of September 2021. The draw for the niche carriers is the strength in spot freight rates, Sea-Intelligence said, although those rates have already started to soften amid the broader injection of fresh capacity . The North Asia-to-US West Coast trade lane saw spot ocean freight rates at $5,633 per FEU as of June 11, down 7% on the week, according to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Spot freight rates had risen threefold since bottoming out at $1,600 in late March. “During the height of the pandemic, the [Asia-North America West Coast (NAWC)] trade lane saw a slew of new entrants — carriers which had no previous footprint on Asia-NAWC and were only there to seize an opportunity that had presented itself in the form of unnaturally high freight rates,” Sea-Intelligence Chief Executive Alan Murphy said. Murphy added that capacity “is back at the level” seen during the height of the pandemic. “This means that the current market conditions are such that these new entrants feel that there is an opportunity reminiscent of the global pandemic,” he said. Some niche carriers have remained in the trans-Pacific since 2022, seeking to offer regularly scheduled liner service instead of ad hoc calls. SeaLead Shipping and T.S. Lines launched a jointly-operated trans-Pacific service into the Port of Long Beach almost one year ago when freight rates hovered near $6,000 per FEU. Hede Shipping has also regularly offered a premium express service to Los Angeles since March 2024. However, Sea-Intelligence sees the current surge in niche carrier capacity ending faster than it did during 2021–22. Sea-Intelligence data shows that weekly niche carriers will account for 3.8% of capacity by the end of July, with that amount dropping to 2.6% by mid-August. The drawdown coincides with expectations that imports from Asia will peak around late summer as the Trump administration’s 90-day reprieve on Chinese tariffs expires. “If history is anything to go by, we will see these carriers remove capacity as quickly as it was introduced once the market conditions start to normalize,” Murphy said. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

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