<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The likely sale this year of the Port of New York and New Jersey’s largest marine terminal portends possible changes to how it will be operated in the long run. </div>

The likely sale this year of the Port of New York and New Jersey’s largest marine terminal portends possible changes to how it will be operated in the long run.

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<div class="phx-topic">The potential sale of Maher Terminal at the Port of New York and New Jersey will require a buyer to navigate stricter lease terms, billions in new costs, and decisions on how to grow capacity and service its customers, all portending further changes in container handling at the port. A source told the Journal of Commerce that marine terminal operators including DP World, PSA International, SSA Marine, and Terminal Investment Limited have inquired about a potential acquisition of Maher from private equity firm Macquarie Infrastructure Partners. Maher, the largest container terminal at NY-NJ, could fetch $3 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal. The sale of Maher, which could be announced later this year, comes after the Macquarie fund that owns Maher negotiated <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/macquarie-seals-deal-for-new-maher-lease-at-nynj-through-2063-6137751">a new 33-year lease with the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey that starts in 2030</a>. The potential buyers have also contacted the Port Authority, the source said, because the agency would have to sign off on any deal. The new lease means Maher’s buyer faces a variable monthly rent that is based solely on container volume, the source said, rather than the previous lease’s largely fixed-cost base rent. In addition, the new operator will have to share with the Port Authority a greater portion of its “excess revenue,” which generally comes from the demurrage it charges on containers. Outside of the direct rental costs, Maher’s buyer could face at least $3 billion in capital and maintenance costs under the new lease, the source said. <h3>Capacity upgrades</h3>A big chunk of that will be the cost of berth maintenance and repairs that the Port Authority has begun shifting over to tenants under the new leases. Maher, with four berths capable of handling super-post-Panamax ships, faces an estimated $2 billion in such repairs.The new lease also requires Maher to add “demand-induced” capacity as part of the port’s overall plan to double capacity by 2050, Port Director Beth Rooney said after the lease’s December signing. Maher, which can currently handle just over 3 million TEUs, could double its capacity through densification, she said. Densification, though, will require the buyer to rethink signature features of the terminal that have made it preferred among ocean carriers, shippers and motor carriers. The densification process could cost another $1 billion. Maher currently uses a fleet of over 200 straddle carriers to sort containers and bring them to trucks waiting at a parking spot, what the facility bills as a “concierge service,” according to shippers. Maher has won multiple awards from local motor carriers and ocean carriers for its service levels. Densifying the facility would mean gradually rolling out a smaller fleet of gantry cranes, either on rubber tires or rail mounted, for handling higher and wider container stacks. The process would require that yard space within Maher be closed on a rotating basis while the underlying concrete is reinforced and container stacks are remade for the larger machines. It’s not clear how the switch to gantry crane operations will affect service times for trucks, although it would likely mean fewer loading spaces. An equipment change at the terminal will also trigger a clause in the contract with the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) over implementing new technology, requiring negotiations with the union. Along with larger yard equipment, a new buyer for Maher will face decisions on how it optimizes space. Maher has a massive truck gate with some 30 inbound lanes and 20 outbound lanes. The large gate complex allows Maher to handle trucks without requiring appointments, a free-flow operation that allows truckers to quickly enter the facility. But the gate complex also occupies about a quarter of its land, making it a potential target for reclamation to container yard space. A smaller gate, though, might require Maher to rethink the free-flow model Maher will also have to share more of its daily operational data under the new lease terms, which require the terminal to provide data about key metrics and other measures. The data sharing will “enable the Port Authority and its terminal operators to better collaborate on port efficiency initiatives,” the agency said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce.Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto: michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The potential sale of Maher Terminal at the Port of New York and New Jersey will require a buyer to navigate stricter lease terms, billions in new costs, and decisions on how to grow capacity and service its customers, all portending further changes in container handling at the port. A source told the Journal of Commerce that marine terminal operators including DP World, PSA International, SSA Marine, and Terminal Investment Limited have inquired about a potential acquisition of Maher from private equity firm Macquarie Infrastructure Partners. Maher, the largest container terminal at NY-NJ, could fetch $3 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal. The sale of Maher, which could be announced later this year, comes after the Macquarie fund that owns Maher negotiated a new 33-year lease with the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey that starts in 2030 . The potential buyers have also contacted the Port Authority, the source said, because the agency would have to sign off on any deal. The new lease means Maher’s buyer faces a variable monthly rent that is based solely on container volume, the source said, rather than the previous lease’s largely fixed-cost base rent. In addition, the new operator will have to share with the Port Authority a greater portion of its “excess revenue,” which generally comes from the demurrage it charges on containers. Outside of the direct rental costs, Maher’s buyer could face at least $3 billion in capital and maintenance costs under the new lease, the source said. Capacity upgrades A big chunk of that will be the cost of berth maintenance and repairs that the Port Authority has begun shifting over to tenants under the new leases. Maher, with four berths capable of handling super-post-Panamax ships, faces an estimated $2 billion in such repairs. The new lease also requires Maher to add “demand-induced” capacity as part of the port’s overall plan to double capacity by 2050, Port Director Beth Rooney said after the lease’s December signing. Maher, which can currently handle just over 3 million TEUs, could double its capacity through densification, she said. Densification, though, will require the buyer to rethink signature features of the terminal that have made it preferred among ocean carriers, shippers and motor carriers. The densification process could cost another $1 billion. Maher currently uses a fleet of over 200 straddle carriers to sort containers and bring them to trucks waiting at a parking spot, what the facility bills as a “concierge service,” according to shippers. Maher has won multiple awards from local motor carriers and ocean carriers for its service levels. Densifying the facility would mean gradually rolling out a smaller fleet of gantry cranes, either on rubber tires or rail mounted, for handling higher and wider container stacks. The process would require that yard space within Maher be closed on a rotating basis while the underlying concrete is reinforced and container stacks are remade for the larger machines. It’s not clear how the switch to gantry crane operations will affect service times for trucks, although it would likely mean fewer loading spaces. An equipment change at the terminal will also trigger a clause in the contract with the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) over implementing new technology, requiring negotiations with the union. Along with larger yard equipment, a new buyer for Maher will face decisions on how it optimizes space. Maher has a massive truck gate with some 30 inbound lanes and 20 outbound lanes. The large gate complex allows Maher to handle trucks without requiring appointments, a free-flow operation that allows truckers to quickly enter the facility. But the gate complex also occupies about a quarter of its land, making it a potential target for reclamation to container yard space. A smaller gate, though, might require Maher to rethink the free-flow model Maher will also have to share more of its daily operational data under the new lease terms, which require the terminal to provide data about key metrics and other measures. The data sharing will “enable the Port Authority and its terminal operators to better collaborate on port efficiency initiatives,” the agency said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce.Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

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Maher’s next buyer faces billions in upgrades, decisions on capacity

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">While linehaul performance has largely returned to normal for US Class I railroads, delays and bottlenecks triggered by the severe winter storm two weeks ago have now moved downstream to terminals in Chicago, Cincinnati and Memphis.</div>

While linehaul performance has largely returned to normal for US Class I railroads, delays and bottlenecks triggered by the severe winter storm two weeks ago have now moved downstream to terminals in Chicago, Cincinnati and Memphis.

<div class="phx-topic">Rail terminals at key inland hubs have become congested with containers two weeks after a severe winter storm slammed a large portion of the US, slowing both the handoff of import boxes to trucks and the start of export moves. While port-to-rail service and linehaul performance have largely returned to normal for US Class I railroads, the delays and bottlenecks triggered by the storm have now moved downstream to terminals in Chicago, Cincinnati and Memphis. “We’ve had drivers spending up to five hours just in line, consistently missing deliveries and having containers going into [demurrage],” said one Chicago-based trucker who asked not to be identified. “The customers refuse to pay and are getting frustrated. Drivers are getting frustrated.” Truckers say the terminal delays are eroding productivity and adding costs, particularly as railroads assess fees during extended container dwell times. For drayage providers, profitability depends on delivering cargo, making hours-long delays inside terminals costly. Frustration has been directed at BNSF Railway, Norfolk Southern Railway (NS) and Union Pacific Railroad (UP). Slowdowns are common during frigid temperatures because heavy equipment such as overhead cranes and hostler vehicles can malfunction. Outdoor terminal crews also must battle the harsh conditions. In Memphis, drivers have raised concerns after UP began stacking ocean containers inside the terminal on Feb. 4 because of a chassis shortage, according to a UP advisory circulated to drivers and shared with the Journal of Commerce. A UP spokesperson declined to confirm the advisory’s authenticity, although two independent sources provided copies to the Journal of Commerce. “Union Pacific does not own chassis and works closely with customers and their carriers to ensure availability,” the UP spokesperson said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce. “Following the unprecedented storm, Union Pacific recovered exceptionally well and maintained a fluid rail network.” Truckers object to UP’s decision, prompted by the post-storm conditions, to charge a fee to lift containers out of stacks. The so-called “flip fee” traditionally applies when transferring a container from a perfectly usable pool chassis to a trucker’s privately owned chassis. Other North American Class I railroads do not assess a fee in similar circumstances, and major US ports similarly do not charge simply to lift a container from a stack onto a truck. Cargo owners are not covering the cost, so UP’s decision is a financial hit for truckers, provoking angry e-mails from truckers that were shared with the Journal of Commerce. Data from technology provider E-Dray shows that the average time to unload an ocean container and make it available at UP’s Memphis terminal has increased from less than one (0.7) day before the storm to 2.9 days as of this week. <h3>Frustrations with BNSF, Norfolk Southern </h3>Drivers report similar frustrations at BNSF’s Memphis and Logistics Park Chicago terminals, where E-Dray data shows container availability times have doubled from approximately one day to two days in both locations. The delays are not driven by chassis shortages, but by extended waits for crane availability. “Turn times at both facilities are about 30%, or 20 minutes longer,” Jon Gabriel, BNSF’s group vice president of consumer products, told the Journal of Commerce. “We expect that turn times [will] return back to normal at both facilities next week, likely Memphis a little sooner.” In Chicago, drivers have also voiced concerns about Norfolk Southern terminals, although E-Dray data shows no material deterioration in terminal efficiency metrics there. Norfolk Southern, however, acknowledged congestion in Cincinnati. “We are taking proactive steps to improve the driver experience, reduce dwell, and maintain service reliability,” NS wrote in a Feb. 3 advisory posted online. “Our focus is on restoring smooth terminal flow and improving the driver experience as quickly as possible.” Congestion also remains elevated in Louisville, where a disruption that began more than a month ago persists. <h3>Linehaul performance rebounds </h3>Moving containers into major inland hubs is no longer an issue for the railroads. BNSF’s transit times between Floyd, Mississippi, and Plaines, Illinois, nearly doubled to 19 hours in the immediate aftermath of the storm, but had fallen back to about 10 hours as of Feb. 5, according to rail visibility provider RailState. UP’s transit times between Edwardsville, Kansas, and Mazonia, Illinois, spiked to nearly 80 hours after the storm before declining to approximately 35 hours this week, RailState data showed. NS’ transit times between Mishawaka, Indiana, and East Palestine, Ohio, jumped about 50% during the storm but have since returned to historical norms. (The RailState data used in this report was the 75th percentile of transit times, as calculated by RailState, to better capture “outlier” instances created by the storm.) Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Rail terminals at key inland hubs have become congested with containers two weeks after a severe winter storm slammed a large portion of the US, slowing both the handoff of import boxes to trucks and the start of export moves. While port-to-rail service and linehaul performance have largely returned to normal for US Class I railroads, the delays and bottlenecks triggered by the storm have now moved downstream to terminals in Chicago, Cincinnati and Memphis. “We’ve had drivers spending up to five hours just in line, consistently missing deliveries and having containers going into [demurrage],” said one Chicago-based trucker who asked not to be identified. “The customers refuse to pay and are getting frustrated. Drivers are getting frustrated.” Truckers say the terminal delays are eroding productivity and adding costs, particularly as railroads assess fees during extended container dwell times. For drayage providers, profitability depends on delivering cargo, making hours-long delays inside terminals costly. Frustration has been directed at BNSF Railway, Norfolk Southern Railway (NS) and Union Pacific Railroad (UP). Slowdowns are common during frigid temperatures because heavy equipment such as overhead cranes and hostler vehicles can malfunction. Outdoor terminal crews also must battle the harsh conditions. In Memphis, drivers have raised concerns after UP began stacking ocean containers inside the terminal on Feb. 4 because of a chassis shortage, according to a UP advisory circulated to drivers and shared with the Journal of Commerce. A UP spokesperson declined to confirm the advisory’s authenticity, although two independent sources provided copies to the Journal of Commerce. “Union Pacific does not own chassis and works closely with customers and their carriers to ensure availability,” the UP spokesperson said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce. “Following the unprecedented storm, Union Pacific recovered exceptionally well and maintained a fluid rail network.” Truckers object to UP’s decision, prompted by the post-storm conditions, to charge a fee to lift containers out of stacks. The so-called “flip fee” traditionally applies when transferring a container from a perfectly usable pool chassis to a trucker’s privately owned chassis. Other North American Class I railroads do not assess a fee in similar circumstances, and major US ports similarly do not charge simply to lift a container from a stack onto a truck. Cargo owners are not covering the cost, so UP’s decision is a financial hit for truckers, provoking angry e-mails from truckers that were shared with the Journal of Commerce. Data from technology provider E-Dray shows that the average time to unload an ocean container and make it available at UP’s Memphis terminal has increased from less than one (0.7) day before the storm to 2.9 days as of this week. Frustrations with BNSF, Norfolk Southern Drivers report similar frustrations at BNSF’s Memphis and Logistics Park Chicago terminals, where E-Dray data shows container availability times have doubled from approximately one day to two days in both locations. The delays are not driven by chassis shortages, but by extended waits for crane availability. “Turn times at both facilities are about 30%, or 20 minutes longer,” Jon Gabriel, BNSF’s group vice president of consumer products, told the Journal of Commerce. “We expect that turn times [will] return back to normal at both facilities next week, likely Memphis a little sooner.” In Chicago, drivers have also voiced concerns about Norfolk Southern terminals, although E-Dray data shows no material deterioration in terminal efficiency metrics there. Norfolk Southern, however, acknowledged congestion in Cincinnati. “We are taking proactive steps to improve the driver experience, reduce dwell, and maintain service reliability,” NS wrote in a Feb. 3 advisory posted online. “Our focus is on restoring smooth terminal flow and improving the driver experience as quickly as possible.” Congestion also remains elevated in Louisville, where a disruption that began more than a month ago persists. Linehaul performance rebounds Moving containers into major inland hubs is no longer an issue for the railroads. BNSF’s transit times between Floyd, Mississippi, and Plaines, Illinois, nearly doubled to 19 hours in the immediate aftermath of the storm, but had fallen back to about 10 hours as of Feb. 5, according to rail visibility provider RailState. UP’s transit times between Edwardsville, Kansas, and Mazonia, Illinois, spiked to nearly 80 hours after the storm before declining to approximately 35 hours this week, RailState data showed. NS’ transit times between Mishawaka, Indiana, and East Palestine, Ohio, jumped about 50% during the storm but have since returned to historical norms. (The RailState data used in this report was the 75th percentile of transit times, as calculated by RailState, to better capture “outlier” instances created by the storm.) Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

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Key inland rail terminals battle post-storm congestion, driver complaints

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The subsidiary of Manila-headquartered International Container Terminal Services said the agreement extends the lease expiration from 2040 to 2066.</div>

The subsidiary of Manila-headquartered International Container Terminal Services said the agreement extends the lease expiration from 2040 to 2066.

<div class="phx-topic">Australia’s Victoria International Container Terminal (VICT) has signed a 26-year extension to its existing contract with the Port of Melbourne to operate and manage the port’s Webb Dock East terminal, the company said Friday. VICT, a subsidiary of Manila-headquartered operator International Container Terminal Services Inc. (ICTSI), said the agreement extends the lease expiration from 2040 to 2066. VICT is currently midway through a US$165 million expansion of its fully automated terminal that will increase capacity to 1.5 million TEUs when completed late next year. The quay length has already been extended to 2,523 feet, and work is underway to develop two container stacking areas. The lease extension comes as Melbourne is preparing to kick off the development of the Webb Dock North terminal, which VICT is hoping to integrate into its Webb Dock East facility. Talks are already taking place between VICT and the port authorities for the company to develop and operate the $343 million North terminal, which would double VICT’s capacity at the port. The Port of Melbourne is aiming for construction to start on the new terminal in 2028, with phased completion by 2036. VICT is the port’s largest container and general cargo terminal. Melbourne handled 3.1 million TEUs last year, down from 3.4 million TEUs in the prior year. Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>.</div>

Australia’s Victoria International Container Terminal (VICT) has signed a 26-year extension to its existing contract with the Port of Melbourne to operate and manage the port’s Webb Dock East terminal, the company said Friday. VICT, a subsidiary of Manila-headquartered operator International Container Terminal Services Inc. (ICTSI), said the agreement extends the lease expiration from 2040 to 2066. VICT is currently midway through a US$165 million expansion of its fully automated terminal that will increase capacity to 1.5 million TEUs when completed late next year. The quay length has already been extended to 2,523 feet, and work is underway to develop two container stacking areas. The lease extension comes as Melbourne is preparing to kick off the development of the Webb Dock North terminal, which VICT is hoping to integrate into its Webb Dock East facility. Talks are already taking place between VICT and the port authorities for the company to develop and operate the $343 million North terminal, which would double VICT’s capacity at the port. The Port of Melbourne is aiming for construction to start on the new terminal in 2028, with phased completion by 2036. VICT is the port’s largest container and general cargo terminal. Melbourne handled 3.1 million TEUs last year, down from 3.4 million TEUs in the prior year. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

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Australia’s VICT extends terminal concession at Port of Melbourne to 2066

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Inland water transport offers a lower-emission alternative routing for out-of-gauge cargoes, with cost-efficiency, lower energy consumption, and fewer accidents, among other advantages.</div>

Inland water transport offers a lower-emission alternative routing for out-of-gauge cargoes, with cost-efficiency, lower energy consumption, and fewer accidents, among other advantages.

<div class="phx-topic">As demand grows for infrastructure projects including data centers, power plants and mining facilities, inland waterways are emerging as a greener and more efficient alternative for breakbulk and project cargo shippers. Hans Vermij, port hinterland logistics professional for international consultancy Haskoning, told the Journal of Commerce that project cargo is well positioned to expand the role of inland waterways for transport, especially when it comes to moving cargo for energy, mining and construction projects. Along with production of bulk raw materials that require inland water access to ship large volumes, mining companies also transport oversized project cargo such as mining or port handling equipment. “Transport by road [faces] severe restrictions regarding the dimensions of the load,” Vermij said. Vermij cited the Rhine River as a key inland route for regularly transporting project cargo across parts of Europe. The Rhine runs from the Alps in Switzerland to the North Sea in the Netherlands and is regularly used to ship machinery, mining equipment and transport vehicles. “As equipment becomes more specialized and the motorway networks in Western Europe are more and more congested, we expect more shipments of project cargo by inland water,” Vermij said. Sustainability, cost-efficiency, lower energy consumption, and fewer accidents are among the advantages of inland water transport, Vermij said. “However, there are still many cases where these advantages are unexplored or need justification to be demonstrated to convince shippers and cargo owners,” he said. <h3>Inland transport supports mining </h3>In South America, increased mining activity necessitated a landmark heavy-lift operation and inland transport by multipurpose vessel (MPV) operator AAL Shipping in December. In its most complex engineering operation to date, AAL transported a fleet of 16 bulk-commodity transport barges on a single heavy-lift vessel from Brazil to Uruguay. According to AAL, the barges will enable South American mining shipments via inland waterways and will be deployed to transport iron and manganese ore for export over 1,500 miles along the Paraguay-Paraná Waterway from Brazil to Uruguay. “We’re seeing growing interest in inland waterways as part of mining and bulk supply chains in South America,” Eugene Nutovych, senior chartering manager for AAL Americas, told the Journal of Commerce. Considered southern South America’s equivalent of the US’ Mississippi River, the Paraguay-Paraná Waterway links Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, Argentina, and Uruguay with the Atlantic Ocean. Nutovych said the use of inland waterways delivers benefits beyond logistics. “Economically it supports industrial activity in Brazil — including the reopening of the Enseada Shipyard in Bahia — and stimulates employment and growth in mining regions and along the waterway corridor,” he said. For mining companies, inland waterway transport can provide greater carrying capacity, reduce logistics costs, and accelerate product flow to market by scaling cargo movement. “It also supports a shift away from road-heavy transportation toward more efficient waterborne solutions, aligning with the broader push for cleaner, more sustainable bulk movement,” Nutovych said. The fleet of barges is expected to increase capacity for more eco-efficient water-bound transport while elevating Brazil’s presence in the global commodities market. Nutovych said AAL anticipates more operations of this kind, particularly as inland corridors develop. According to the Rosario Board of Trade, the large-scale mining development projected in the Cuyo and Northwest Argentine regions will likely require river transport via the Paraguay-Paraná Waterway of processed lithium, copper, silver, gold, zinc, and lead — which often ship as breakbulk cargo — for export, along with the transport of equipment to support production. <h3>Global expansions take shape </h3>Investments in global inland waterways range from targeted projects in the US to massive expansions in Asia and Europe. In the US, inland waterway infrastructure has been expanding in recent months to support supply chains, critical infrastructure, and maritime workforce development. In July, the US Department of Transportation added 848 new miles of navigable waterways to the US Marine Highway Program. The network now covers 27,139 miles across 35 designated routes. On Feb. 5, the Northwest Seaport Alliance (NWSA) of Seattle and Tacoma and the inland ports of Benton, Pasco and Walla Walla in Washington signed an agreement to develop an inland logistics hub in the southeastern part of the state. Along with leveraging railroads and major highways with connections to coastal ports, the hub will rely on the region’s Columbia-Snake River system, which stretches from British Columbia, Canada, to the Pacific Ocean in Oregon, and through Washington, Idaho, and Wyoming. One objective of the hub is to ease truck congestion in the Puget Sound metro area and improve supply chain efficiency. The NWSA has been implementing a growth plan since 2020 that includes infrastructure expansion and intermodal enhancements to extend the gateway’s reach into the US interior. In Europe, work is underway on the 66-mile Seine-Nord Europe Canal, touted as Europe’s answer to the Suez Canal and France’s first new waterway to be built since the 1970s. The $6 billion canal will allow super barges weighing up to 4,400 tons — the equivalent of 400 trucks of cargo — to travel between France, Belgium and the Netherlands. David Edwards-May, consultant, publisher and former president of UK nonprofit Inland Waterways International (IWI), told the Journal of Commerce that the canal could serve as a key route for breakbulk and project cargo while helping shift oversized freight off European roadways. “That means you’ve got one-fifth of France — the whole Paris region down to Normandy — that will henceforth be linked to the Rhine [River],” May said. In southern China, construction is nearing completion on the 82-mile Pinglu Canal, one of the world’s largest canal construction projects and the country’s first river-to-sea canal to be built since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. The $10 billion canal will cross mountains and plains to connect China’s inland waterways with the South China Sea. The canal is set to open to navigation by the end of 2026. The Pinglu Canal project marks the beginning of China’s larger overall push to expand inland shipping, as the country plans to establish a 15,500-mile network of inland waterways by 2035. “The bet the Chinese are making is that the temporary upheaval involved with developing new waterways for modern inland water transport will be compensated by the long-term benefits of a lower carbon imprint,” May said. <h3>Taking weight off roads </h3>In the UK, inland waterways, particularly the Manchester Ship Channel, are playing an increasing role in reducing road congestion by moving heavy and oversized cargo to waterways. Jamie Gray, senior project director for Haskoning, cited the 2024 transport of a large hydrogen-powered furnace from India to the Port of Liverpool. UK port operator Peel Ports transferred the furnace to a barge and moved the cargo via the Manchester Ship Canal to reduce road miles and public disruption. Gray said Peel Ports is investing heavily in warehousing and logistics hubs along its waterways. “The aim is to process goods closer to the final destination, and thus lower carbon emissions,” he said. May said inland waterway barges will eventually be adapted to run on electric propulsion, making them less reliant on fossil fuels. “Inland water transport could evolve to being carbon-neutral much more quickly than road transport,” he said. Another emerging technology is AI-powered self-steering barges, which could help lower personnel costs and is already being tested in Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. “Obviously a lot of caution is required in proceeding on that basis, but it is a trend that I think clearly is on the way and will help to rationalize that mode of transport,” May said. In any case, May said inland transport is able to maintain a low profile, not only because it produces less noise pollution than trucks, but also because it means fewer oversized shipments taking up space on the road. “It is so incredibly discreet,” he said. “People are not even really aware of the service that is rendered to the economy.” Contact Autumn Cafiero Giusti at <a href="mailto:autumn@autumngiusti.com">autumn@autumngiusti.com</a>.</div>

As demand grows for infrastructure projects including data centers, power plants and mining facilities, inland waterways are emerging as a greener and more efficient alternative for breakbulk and project cargo shippers. Hans Vermij, port hinterland logistics professional for international consultancy Haskoning, told the Journal of Commerce that project cargo is well positioned to expand the role of inland waterways for transport, especially when it comes to moving cargo for energy, mining and construction projects. Along with production of bulk raw materials that require inland water access to ship large volumes, mining companies also transport oversized project cargo such as mining or port handling equipment. “Transport by road [faces] severe restrictions regarding the dimensions of the load,” Vermij said. Vermij cited the Rhine River as a key inland route for regularly transporting project cargo across parts of Europe. The Rhine runs from the Alps in Switzerland to the North Sea in the Netherlands and is regularly used to ship machinery, mining equipment and transport vehicles. “As equipment becomes more specialized and the motorway networks in Western Europe are more and more congested, we expect more shipments of project cargo by inland water,” Vermij said. Sustainability, cost-efficiency, lower energy consumption, and fewer accidents are among the advantages of inland water transport, Vermij said. “However, there are still many cases where these advantages are unexplored or need justification to be demonstrated to convince shippers and cargo owners,” he said. Inland transport supports mining In South America, increased mining activity necessitated a landmark heavy-lift operation and inland transport by multipurpose vessel (MPV) operator AAL Shipping in December. In its most complex engineering operation to date, AAL transported a fleet of 16 bulk-commodity transport barges on a single heavy-lift vessel from Brazil to Uruguay. According to AAL, the barges will enable South American mining shipments via inland waterways and will be deployed to transport iron and manganese ore for export over 1,500 miles along the Paraguay-Paraná Waterway from Brazil to Uruguay. “We’re seeing growing interest in inland waterways as part of mining and bulk supply chains in South America,” Eugene Nutovych, senior chartering manager for AAL Americas, told the Journal of Commerce. Considered southern South America’s equivalent of the US’ Mississippi River, the Paraguay-Paraná Waterway links Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, Argentina, and Uruguay with the Atlantic Ocean. Nutovych said the use of inland waterways delivers benefits beyond logistics. “Economically it supports industrial activity in Brazil — including the reopening of the Enseada Shipyard in Bahia — and stimulates employment and growth in mining regions and along the waterway corridor,” he said. For mining companies, inland waterway transport can provide greater carrying capacity, reduce logistics costs, and accelerate product flow to market by scaling cargo movement. “It also supports a shift away from road-heavy transportation toward more efficient waterborne solutions, aligning with the broader push for cleaner, more sustainable bulk movement,” Nutovych said. The fleet of barges is expected to increase capacity for more eco-efficient water-bound transport while elevating Brazil’s presence in the global commodities market. Nutovych said AAL anticipates more operations of this kind, particularly as inland corridors develop. According to the Rosario Board of Trade, the large-scale mining development projected in the Cuyo and Northwest Argentine regions will likely require river transport via the Paraguay-Paraná Waterway of processed lithium, copper, silver, gold, zinc, and lead — which often ship as breakbulk cargo — for export, along with the transport of equipment to support production. Global expansions take shape Investments in global inland waterways range from targeted projects in the US to massive expansions in Asia and Europe. In the US, inland waterway infrastructure has been expanding in recent months to support supply chains, critical infrastructure, and maritime workforce development. In July, the US Department of Transportation added 848 new miles of navigable waterways to the US Marine Highway Program. The network now covers 27,139 miles across 35 designated routes. On Feb. 5, the Northwest Seaport Alliance (NWSA) of Seattle and Tacoma and the inland ports of Benton, Pasco and Walla Walla in Washington signed an agreement to develop an inland logistics hub in the southeastern part of the state. Along with leveraging railroads and major highways with connections to coastal ports, the hub will rely on the region’s Columbia-Snake River system, which stretches from British Columbia, Canada, to the Pacific Ocean in Oregon, and through Washington, Idaho, and Wyoming. One objective of the hub is to ease truck congestion in the Puget Sound metro area and improve supply chain efficiency. The NWSA has been implementing a growth plan since 2020 that includes infrastructure expansion and intermodal enhancements to extend the gateway’s reach into the US interior. In Europe, work is underway on the 66-mile Seine-Nord Europe Canal, touted as Europe’s answer to the Suez Canal and France’s first new waterway to be built since the 1970s. The $6 billion canal will allow super barges weighing up to 4,400 tons — the equivalent of 400 trucks of cargo — to travel between France, Belgium and the Netherlands. David Edwards-May, consultant, publisher and former president of UK nonprofit Inland Waterways International (IWI), told the Journal of Commerce that the canal could serve as a key route for breakbulk and project cargo while helping shift oversized freight off European roadways. “That means you’ve got one-fifth of France — the whole Paris region down to Normandy — that will henceforth be linked to the Rhine [River],” May said. In southern China, construction is nearing completion on the 82-mile Pinglu Canal, one of the world’s largest canal construction projects and the country’s first river-to-sea canal to be built since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. The $10 billion canal will cross mountains and plains to connect China’s inland waterways with the South China Sea. The canal is set to open to navigation by the end of 2026. The Pinglu Canal project marks the beginning of China’s larger overall push to expand inland shipping, as the country plans to establish a 15,500-mile network of inland waterways by 2035. “The bet the Chinese are making is that the temporary upheaval involved with developing new waterways for modern inland water transport will be compensated by the long-term benefits of a lower carbon imprint,” May said. Taking weight off roads In the UK, inland waterways, particularly the Manchester Ship Channel, are playing an increasing role in reducing road congestion by moving heavy and oversized cargo to waterways. Jamie Gray, senior project director for Haskoning, cited the 2024 transport of a large hydrogen-powered furnace from India to the Port of Liverpool. UK port operator Peel Ports transferred the furnace to a barge and moved the cargo via the Manchester Ship Canal to reduce road miles and public disruption. Gray said Peel Ports is investing heavily in warehousing and logistics hubs along its waterways. “The aim is to process goods closer to the final destination, and thus lower carbon emissions,” he said. May said inland waterway barges will eventually be adapted to run on electric propulsion, making them less reliant on fossil fuels. “Inland water transport could evolve to being carbon-neutral much more quickly than road transport,” he said. Another emerging technology is AI-powered self-steering barges, which could help lower personnel costs and is already being tested in Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. “Obviously a lot of caution is required in proceeding on that basis, but it is a trend that I think clearly is on the way and will help to rationalize that mode of transport,” May said. In any case, May said inland transport is able to maintain a low profile, not only because it produces less noise pollution than trucks, but also because it means fewer oversized shipments taking up space on the road. “It is so incredibly discreet,” he said. “People are not even really aware of the service that is rendered to the economy.” Contact Autumn Cafiero Giusti at autumn@autumngiusti.com .

Breakbulk carriers

Energy projects

Heavy-haul transport

Project cargo

Breakbulk News

Shippers look inland to move swelling project cargo demand

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The digital trade body argues that online sellers outside the EU were able to scale rapidly by exploiting gaps in customs and regulatory enforcement that European businesses could not legally replicate.</div>

The digital trade body argues that online sellers outside the EU were able to scale rapidly by exploiting gaps in customs and regulatory enforcement that European businesses could not legally replicate.

<div class="phx-topic">A Polish digital trade group has warned that Chinese online platforms were distorting competition across the European Union using “unequal rules” to reshape the e-commerce market. The Chamber of Digital Economy in Poland argued in a report prepared with KPMG that non-EU sellers were scaling rapidly by exploiting gaps in customs and regulatory enforcement that European businesses could not legally replicate. “This is not a debate about protectionism,” Patrycja Sass-Staniszewska, president of the Chamber of Digital Economy, said in a statement. “Polish companies compete on price, service and innovation every day. What they cannot compete with are business models built on regulatory loopholes and the absence of effective enforcement.” The report said Chinese platforms now account for 6% to 11% of Poland’s $42 billion e-commerce market, with strong growth in the electronics and household goods sectors where sustained price dumping risks hollowing out domestic production and investment capacity. The threat to businesses extends across Europe, the Polish group warned, saying that without intervention, EU-based companies will struggle to scale, invest and compete globally. Regulatory clampdowns on e-commerce have profound implications for air freight, as evidenced by the US’ removal of the de minimis exemption from duties for low-value goods that went into force last year. Amid a growing outcry across Europe, the European Union will impose a similar regulatory clampdown from mid-2026. The European Commission has adopted measures to remove the €150 ($177) duty-free exemption for low-value goods, targeting a surge in e-commerce imports from China. In 2024, the European Commission estimated that 4.6 billion parcels with a value not exceeding €150 crossed the EU border, twice the number of parcels from the previous year. The EU de minimis exemption not only allows importers of low-value goods to avoid paying duties, but also removes the need for importers to submit a standard customs declaration. A temporary €3 ($3.50) import duty per item is expected to be applied by the European Commission from July 2026, with a full reform of measures scheduled for 2028. <h3>Hollowing out domestic production </h3>Data from rate benchmarking platform Xeneta shows the removal of the US’ de minimis exemption for Chinese imports last May led to a sharp decline in e-commerce on the trans-Pacific that has extended into 2026. China-Europe low-value exports are also slowing as regulatory scrutiny intensifies. For instance, France in November suspended access to Shein’s online platform for three months after discovering illegal items on sale, while it has intensified customs inspections of e-commerce imports. Data from Xeneta shows China-US e-commerce exports were down more than 50% for a third consecutive month in December and fell 28% for the full year. Growth in China-Europe e-commerce volume slowed to 8% in December compared with a 54% growth rate in the first 11 months of 2025, but when excluding Russia, volume to Europe fell 23% for the year. Niall van de Wouw, chief airfreight officer at Xeneta, said after three months of steadily slowing e-commerce demand from China, it appears obvious that the slowdown has now become a trend. “If it remains flat or declines further, it will certainly affect many organizations’ growth plans, including those with commitments to freighter conversions that will be relying on the high level of e-commerce demand we have seen in recent years,” Van de Wouw said in a market update Friday. Xeneta estimated that the air cargo market relies on e-commerce for up to 25% of its total annual volumes globally. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

A Polish digital trade group has warned that Chinese online platforms were distorting competition across the European Union using “unequal rules” to reshape the e-commerce market. The Chamber of Digital Economy in Poland argued in a report prepared with KPMG that non-EU sellers were scaling rapidly by exploiting gaps in customs and regulatory enforcement that European businesses could not legally replicate. “This is not a debate about protectionism,” Patrycja Sass-Staniszewska, president of the Chamber of Digital Economy, said in a statement. “Polish companies compete on price, service and innovation every day. What they cannot compete with are business models built on regulatory loopholes and the absence of effective enforcement.” The report said Chinese platforms now account for 6% to 11% of Poland’s $42 billion e-commerce market, with strong growth in the electronics and household goods sectors where sustained price dumping risks hollowing out domestic production and investment capacity. The threat to businesses extends across Europe, the Polish group warned, saying that without intervention, EU-based companies will struggle to scale, invest and compete globally. Regulatory clampdowns on e-commerce have profound implications for air freight, as evidenced by the US’ removal of the de minimis exemption from duties for low-value goods that went into force last year. Amid a growing outcry across Europe, the European Union will impose a similar regulatory clampdown from mid-2026. The European Commission has adopted measures to remove the €150 ($177) duty-free exemption for low-value goods, targeting a surge in e-commerce imports from China. In 2024, the European Commission estimated that 4.6 billion parcels with a value not exceeding €150 crossed the EU border, twice the number of parcels from the previous year. The EU de minimis exemption not only allows importers of low-value goods to avoid paying duties, but also removes the need for importers to submit a standard customs declaration. A temporary €3 ($3.50) import duty per item is expected to be applied by the European Commission from July 2026, with a full reform of measures scheduled for 2028. Hollowing out domestic production Data from rate benchmarking platform Xeneta shows the removal of the US’ de minimis exemption for Chinese imports last May led to a sharp decline in e-commerce on the trans-Pacific that has extended into 2026. China-Europe low-value exports are also slowing as regulatory scrutiny intensifies. For instance, France in November suspended access to Shein’s online platform for three months after discovering illegal items on sale, while it has intensified customs inspections of e-commerce imports. Data from Xeneta shows China-US e-commerce exports were down more than 50% for a third consecutive month in December and fell 28% for the full year. Growth in China-Europe e-commerce volume slowed to 8% in December compared with a 54% growth rate in the first 11 months of 2025, but when excluding Russia, volume to Europe fell 23% for the year. Niall van de Wouw, chief airfreight officer at Xeneta, said after three months of steadily slowing e-commerce demand from China, it appears obvious that the slowdown has now become a trend. “If it remains flat or declines further, it will certainly affect many organizations’ growth plans, including those with commitments to freighter conversions that will be relying on the high level of e-commerce demand we have seen in recent years,” Van de Wouw said in a market update Friday. Xeneta estimated that the air cargo market relies on e-commerce for up to 25% of its total annual volumes globally. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Asia-Europe

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

Polish trade group hits out at ‘unequal rules’ for Chinese e-commerce platforms

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The move to split Logistics and Services into three product segments reflects the sensitivities around a division that underpins the carrier’s integrated end-to-end strategy launched in 2017.</div>

The move to split Logistics and Services into three product segments reflects the sensitivities around a division that underpins the carrier’s integrated end-to-end strategy launched in 2017.

<div class="phx-topic">Maersk will split its Logistics and Services unit into three individual product segments as the division continues to frustrate management efforts to reach the 6% operating margin target set almost five years ago. While the segment’s 4.8% earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) margin in 2025 was an improvement on the 3.6% reported the previous year, it is not far above the 4.2% margin recorded in 2021 when the target was set. “We are proud of the progress we have made but are [neither] complacent or satisfied with where we are, and improving both our results and growth rates in logistics will remain a priority in 2026,” Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said during an earnings call after <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/gemini-benefits-face-looming-challenge-from-oversupplied-market-maersk-ceo-6164887">the carrier announced its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results</a> Thursday. With the EBIT margin showing only incremental growth, Clerc outlined plans to transform the Logistics and Services segment to drive more value for customers following feedback from the market. “It will increase comparability and transparency to allow you to better benchmark our performance with peers,” Clerc told analysts on the earnings call. The transformation reflects the sensitivities around a division that underpins the carrier’s integrated end-to-end strategy launched in 2017. Maersk wants to attract a greater share of shipper-direct volume with the aim of providing end-to-end control of customers’ cargo. It is a model <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/tpm24-industry-veteran-sees-little-value-in-ocean-carriers-integrating-logistics-services-5241059">that has drawn criticism from global forwarders</a> who regard their asset-light approach as better suited to the complexities of global trade. “Our priority in 2026 is to continue to improve where we have fallen short in Logistics and Services,” Clerc insisted. <h3>Division split into three new segments </h3>In an organizational change that will take effect on April 1, the Logistics and Services business will be split into three new product segments: landside, forwarding and solutions, with each segment comprising its own set of products. Landside will comprise local and regional products linked to inland transportation: drayage in and out of terminals, ground freight in North America offering mainly expedited less-than-container-load (LCL) road transport, depots, and custom services to assist customers with declarations, tariffs and other regulatory matters. Forwarding will comprise global forwarding and ancillary products such as air freight, LCL for ocean, project logistics and insurance. Solutions will handle supply chain management, e-commerce and warehousing and distribution. While still short of the 6% EBIT margin target, the Logistics and Services segment was able to grow its business in 2025 while broadening its network footprint in strategic locations that should position the portfolio for long-term growth. Full-year revenue was up 1.3% year over year at $15.1 billion and EBIT grew 35% to $728 million. First-mile volume in the logistics segment was up almost 4% year over year at just over 7 million FEUs, while air freight volume was down 2.7% at 318,000 metric tons. “While the [logistics] business is by far not where we want it to be in terms of growth and profitability, 2025 has moved us closer,” Clerc said. “Our priority is to accelerate margin improvement and push harder on growth wherever it makes sense, which we define as the many parts of the portfolio delivering high margins and where higher volumes will increase network utilization and thus, translate also in better margins,” he noted. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Maersk will split its Logistics and Services unit into three individual product segments as the division continues to frustrate management efforts to reach the 6% operating margin target set almost five years ago. While the segment’s 4.8% earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) margin in 2025 was an improvement on the 3.6% reported the previous year, it is not far above the 4.2% margin recorded in 2021 when the target was set. “We are proud of the progress we have made but are [neither] complacent or satisfied with where we are, and improving both our results and growth rates in logistics will remain a priority in 2026,” Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said during an earnings call after the carrier announced its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results Thursday. With the EBIT margin showing only incremental growth, Clerc outlined plans to transform the Logistics and Services segment to drive more value for customers following feedback from the market. “It will increase comparability and transparency to allow you to better benchmark our performance with peers,” Clerc told analysts on the earnings call. The transformation reflects the sensitivities around a division that underpins the carrier’s integrated end-to-end strategy launched in 2017. Maersk wants to attract a greater share of shipper-direct volume with the aim of providing end-to-end control of customers’ cargo. It is a model that has drawn criticism from global forwarders who regard their asset-light approach as better suited to the complexities of global trade. “Our priority in 2026 is to continue to improve where we have fallen short in Logistics and Services,” Clerc insisted. Division split into three new segments In an organizational change that will take effect on April 1, the Logistics and Services business will be split into three new product segments: landside, forwarding and solutions, with each segment comprising its own set of products. Landside will comprise local and regional products linked to inland transportation: drayage in and out of terminals, ground freight in North America offering mainly expedited less-than-container-load (LCL) road transport, depots, and custom services to assist customers with declarations, tariffs and other regulatory matters. Forwarding will comprise global forwarding and ancillary products such as air freight, LCL for ocean, project logistics and insurance. Solutions will handle supply chain management, e-commerce and warehousing and distribution. While still short of the 6% EBIT margin target, the Logistics and Services segment was able to grow its business in 2025 while broadening its network footprint in strategic locations that should position the portfolio for long-term growth. Full-year revenue was up 1.3% year over year at $15.1 billion and EBIT grew 35% to $728 million. First-mile volume in the logistics segment was up almost 4% year over year at just over 7 million FEUs, while air freight volume was down 2.7% at 318,000 metric tons. “While the [logistics] business is by far not where we want it to be in terms of growth and profitability, 2025 has moved us closer,” Clerc said. “Our priority is to accelerate margin improvement and push harder on growth wherever it makes sense, which we define as the many parts of the portfolio delivering high margins and where higher volumes will increase network utilization and thus, translate also in better margins,” he noted. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Container lines

Forwarding

Drayage

Maersk to reorganize logistics segment as profit margins fall short again

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The current market situation is favorable for BCOs, and the temptation will be great to drive down base rates because of internal cost pressures, writes John McCauley.</div>

The current market situation is favorable for BCOs, and the temptation will be great to drive down base rates because of internal cost pressures, writes John McCauley.

<div class="phx-topic">At this time of year, many have reflected on 2025 and made resolutions for 2026. I have adjusted this to make no resolutions, but a few predictions that, in most cases, I hope will not materialize. In addition, I want to give some advice to beneficial cargo owners (BCOs), many of whom are in various stages of negotiations for 2026–27 service contracts. Starting with the predictions, let’s consider some supply, capacity, and demand issues. <h3>Capacity </h3>I expect Red Sea transits will resume, but very slowly and primarily for East Med cargo and for the India sub-continent to the East Coast of the US. Asia-Europe transits will only resume if insurance premiums disappear. The Houthis are still present and will be volatile and unreliable, so they remain the wild card for this prediction. At best, Asia-Europe, if Suez passage resumes, would take six months to stabilize. The US port fees for Chinese-built and -owned vessels will be a non-event. However, for carriers, the sword of Damocles is hanging over this one, so don’t expect any major service reshuffles. Sadly, service reliability levels will stay stable at a horrible 60%, notwithstanding the herculean efforts of Gemini to drag the industry up. Most carriers won’t care enough to do something about it. Expect significant trucking and drayage disruption in the US. Bankruptcies will rise as seasonality gets more unpredictable. Driver shortages will get worse. The consequences will be price volatility, both up and down, with significant backlogs adding to detention and demurrage bills. Berthing and landside restrictions will continue to hinder moving larger vessels to north-south trades as few terminals are deep-sea; they are river or bay, at best, and are often hemmed in by towns and cities and tidal-constrained. <h3>Demand </h3>Many BCOs are under high internal pressure to contribute to reductions in overall supply chain costs as margins become thinner through higher input costs (somewhat largely driven by tariffs), downstream price squeezing, and weaker demand. Container freight downward trends will be an obvious target. Keep an eye on US credit card debt and defaults, which will rise significantly by the third quarter at the latest, thus further softening demand. Macro level indicators will prey on demand. US inflation will remain stubbornly near at least 2.5% to 3% while unemployment will remain at about 4.5% as immigration net deficits offset layoffs. Job creation will stagnate. Depending on the GDP trend, expect a high likelihood of stagflation toward the end of the fourth quarter (subject to the reliability of US government data). China will continue manufacturing export expansion and increase its proportion of global trade. <h3>Recommendation </h3>What does this mean for upcoming service contract negotiations? With the expectation of vessel oversupply continuing through the year, BCOs will push to the limit to reduce base rates. They will face several dilemmas, including how to get rid of unmerited and unjustifiable surcharges and which carriers to choose from in alliances and vessel-sharing agreements. Overall, the market situation is favorable for BCOs. The temptation to drive down base rates will be great because of internal cost pressures and/or wanting to make up for some years of carrier supply strength. This should be tempered with a caveat that many BCOs have been burnt in the past for being too empathetic to carriers’ financial difficulties. If I were in the shoes of a medium-size BCO of 30,000 TEUs and above, I would select a mix that would aim for base rates around the Xeneta/NYSHEX forecast average index levels, even if offered lower rates than those levels. It is important to keep in with Mediterranean Shipping Co. even if you don’t use them today. I would use index-linked contracts today and continue to do so with a maximum of 50% to leave yourself some volume for fixed rates and some spot prices. Of that remaining volume, I would leave about 25% for spot as the downside risk is still relatively low. Finally, the market situation should allow for BCOs to get into their contracts the exclusion of any non-explainable (by the carrier) and justifiable (judged and accepted by the BCO) surcharges. John McCauley, formerly a vice president of transportation and logistics at Cargill, now consults for shippers. Contact him at <a href="mailto:john-mccauley1@outlook.com">john-mccauley1@outlook.com</a>.</div>

At this time of year, many have reflected on 2025 and made resolutions for 2026. I have adjusted this to make no resolutions, but a few predictions that, in most cases, I hope will not materialize. In addition, I want to give some advice to beneficial cargo owners (BCOs), many of whom are in various stages of negotiations for 2026–27 service contracts. Starting with the predictions, let’s consider some supply, capacity, and demand issues. Capacity I expect Red Sea transits will resume, but very slowly and primarily for East Med cargo and for the India sub-continent to the East Coast of the US. Asia-Europe transits will only resume if insurance premiums disappear. The Houthis are still present and will be volatile and unreliable, so they remain the wild card for this prediction. At best, Asia-Europe, if Suez passage resumes, would take six months to stabilize. The US port fees for Chinese-built and -owned vessels will be a non-event. However, for carriers, the sword of Damocles is hanging over this one, so don’t expect any major service reshuffles. Sadly, service reliability levels will stay stable at a horrible 60%, notwithstanding the herculean efforts of Gemini to drag the industry up. Most carriers won’t care enough to do something about it. Expect significant trucking and drayage disruption in the US. Bankruptcies will rise as seasonality gets more unpredictable. Driver shortages will get worse. The consequences will be price volatility, both up and down, with significant backlogs adding to detention and demurrage bills. Berthing and landside restrictions will continue to hinder moving larger vessels to north-south trades as few terminals are deep-sea; they are river or bay, at best, and are often hemmed in by towns and cities and tidal-constrained. Demand Many BCOs are under high internal pressure to contribute to reductions in overall supply chain costs as margins become thinner through higher input costs (somewhat largely driven by tariffs), downstream price squeezing, and weaker demand. Container freight downward trends will be an obvious target. Keep an eye on US credit card debt and defaults, which will rise significantly by the third quarter at the latest, thus further softening demand. Macro level indicators will prey on demand. US inflation will remain stubbornly near at least 2.5% to 3% while unemployment will remain at about 4.5% as immigration net deficits offset layoffs. Job creation will stagnate. Depending on the GDP trend, expect a high likelihood of stagflation toward the end of the fourth quarter (subject to the reliability of US government data). China will continue manufacturing export expansion and increase its proportion of global trade. Recommendation What does this mean for upcoming service contract negotiations? With the expectation of vessel oversupply continuing through the year, BCOs will push to the limit to reduce base rates. They will face several dilemmas, including how to get rid of unmerited and unjustifiable surcharges and which carriers to choose from in alliances and vessel-sharing agreements. Overall, the market situation is favorable for BCOs. The temptation to drive down base rates will be great because of internal cost pressures and/or wanting to make up for some years of carrier supply strength. This should be tempered with a caveat that many BCOs have been burnt in the past for being too empathetic to carriers’ financial difficulties. If I were in the shoes of a medium-size BCO of 30,000 TEUs and above, I would select a mix that would aim for base rates around the Xeneta/NYSHEX forecast average index levels, even if offered lower rates than those levels. It is important to keep in with Mediterranean Shipping Co. even if you don’t use them today. I would use index-linked contracts today and continue to do so with a maximum of 50% to leave yourself some volume for fixed rates and some spot prices. Of that remaining volume, I would leave about 25% for spot as the downside risk is still relatively low. Finally, the market situation should allow for BCOs to get into their contracts the exclusion of any non-explainable (by the carrier) and justifiable (judged and accepted by the BCO) surcharges. John McCauley, formerly a vice president of transportation and logistics at Cargill, now consults for shippers. Contact him at john-mccauley1@outlook.com .

Trans-Pacific

A few market predictions and some advice for BCOs as contract season heats up

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">There are a lot of theories explaining the current freight recession, but there is no disputing that decreased demand, cutthroat competition, and plummeting rates have occurred simultaneously with inflationary cost components, writes Ted Prince.</div>

There are a lot of theories explaining the current freight recession, but there is no disputing that decreased demand, cutthroat competition, and plummeting rates have occurred simultaneously with inflationary cost components, writes Ted Prince.

<div class="phx-topic">In 1948, Gerald Hern, sports editor of the Boston Post, composed a brief poem describing the Boston Braves’ pitching en route to the 1948 National League pennant: First we’ll use Spahn then we’ll use Sain Then an off day, followed by rain Back will come Spahn, followed by Sain And followed, we hope, by two days of rain Warren Spahn and Johnny Sain were responsible for 39 of the Braves’ 91 victories that year. However, it was common to have a one-two punch at the top of a team’s pitching rotation. Intermodal has a similar duality: international and domestic — primarily dry 40- and 53-foot containers, respectively. While intermodal has a plethora of markets and equipment, the two segments have been carrying the industry for decades to constant new heights. They are also closely correlated in that a great deal of the domestic market is import cargo that was transloaded on the West Coast for movement inland. Hern’s work comes to mind when thinking about intermodal’s performance in 2025 and its prospects for 2026. Unlike the hoped-for two days of good rain, the industry has endured four years of painful rain since the halcyon volumes of 2021, the “good old days” of the COVID-19 pandemic. There are a lot of theories explaining the current freight “recession,” but there is no disputing that decreased demand, cutthroat competition, and plummeting rates have occurred simultaneously with inflationary cost components. As a result, intermodal has frequently found itself as a surface freight alternative that is slower and more expensive than trucking. And while there were some green shoots in 2024, the industry has been hoping for a second-half recovery — that has failed to materialize — in each of the past three years. The same seems true for 2026. <h3>Supply and demand drivers </h3>As we look forward, we need to consider supply and demand drivers. “Affordability” has taken the place of prominence in our political lexicon. As the costs of food and housing rise, discretionary income for other consumer products has shriveled and reduced demand. The same goes for increasing credit card, car, and student loan debt. Regardless of mortgage rates, there are long-term limitations on housing starts. This can further reduce consumer demand because so many purchases — e.g., furniture, home, electronics, etc. — are often associated with new homes. And although seven-year car loans have become more common, I don’t believe 50-year home mortgages will have the same penetration. With demand problematic, intermodal success will probably rely on supply changes. Many contend that the demand during the early days of COVID-19 created excess capacity that the truck market is still trying to absorb. However, it is unclear whether there was really an increase in overall capacity, or just realignment as many truckers decided to go out on their own. Regardless, there were a number of carriers that acquired capacity at historically high prices and must keep operating to just make their payments. The normal culling of unprofitable capacity was precluded by this inability to exit the market, ensuring a never-ending supply of zombie truckers. This capacity is getting older and more expensive to operate. Nevertheless, there is a feeling (or hope?) that 2026 will finally see marginal carriers leave the market and rate stability restored. <h3>Enhanced regulatory oversight </h3>The environmental green benefits of intermodal are not a priority for the current administration, so economic green will be paramount. Most likely that would come from increased regulatory oversight. Enhanced enforcement on non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses is reducing driver supply. And there is still the unknown of hacked electronic logging devices allowing for illegal hours of service. What is unclear is whether these initiatives will impact truckload and drayage carriers equally, or whether one segment will suffer disproportionate opprobrium. If it is the former, intermodal will be advantaged; however, if it is the latter, maybe not. The former would be a rising tide that would raise all intermodal ships, whereas the latter could see the further ascendance of bimodal operations with integrated drayage overseen by robust safety regimens. In an attempt to increase demand, we can expect major players to assume prominent roles. Railroads and bimodals will seek to deploy equipment that has been stored for years. Ocean carriers will continue to consider their inland options. Finally, ports may become more involved as they explore inland options to attract more discretionary cargo. There are no historical comparisons for the last five years. It is unclear when the market will turn, but when it does, the recovery will follow Ernest Hemingway’s description: “Gradually, then suddenly.” We can then hope for the sun also to rise on intermodal. Ted Prince is founder and CEO of Tri-Cities Intermodal LLC. Contact him at <a href="mailto:ted@tricitiesintermodal.com">ted@tricitiesintermodal.com</a>.</div>

In 1948, Gerald Hern, sports editor of the Boston Post, composed a brief poem describing the Boston Braves’ pitching en route to the 1948 National League pennant: First we’ll use Spahn then we’ll use Sain Then an off day, followed by rain Back will come Spahn, followed by Sain And followed, we hope, by two days of rain Warren Spahn and Johnny Sain were responsible for 39 of the Braves’ 91 victories that year. However, it was common to have a one-two punch at the top of a team’s pitching rotation. Intermodal has a similar duality: international and domestic — primarily dry 40- and 53-foot containers, respectively. While intermodal has a plethora of markets and equipment, the two segments have been carrying the industry for decades to constant new heights. They are also closely correlated in that a great deal of the domestic market is import cargo that was transloaded on the West Coast for movement inland. Hern’s work comes to mind when thinking about intermodal’s performance in 2025 and its prospects for 2026. Unlike the hoped-for two days of good rain, the industry has endured four years of painful rain since the halcyon volumes of 2021, the “good old days” of the COVID-19 pandemic. There are a lot of theories explaining the current freight “recession,” but there is no disputing that decreased demand, cutthroat competition, and plummeting rates have occurred simultaneously with inflationary cost components. As a result, intermodal has frequently found itself as a surface freight alternative that is slower and more expensive than trucking. And while there were some green shoots in 2024, the industry has been hoping for a second-half recovery — that has failed to materialize — in each of the past three years. The same seems true for 2026. Supply and demand drivers As we look forward, we need to consider supply and demand drivers. “Affordability” has taken the place of prominence in our political lexicon. As the costs of food and housing rise, discretionary income for other consumer products has shriveled and reduced demand. The same goes for increasing credit card, car, and student loan debt. Regardless of mortgage rates, there are long-term limitations on housing starts. This can further reduce consumer demand because so many purchases — e.g., furniture, home, electronics, etc. — are often associated with new homes. And although seven-year car loans have become more common, I don’t believe 50-year home mortgages will have the same penetration. With demand problematic, intermodal success will probably rely on supply changes. Many contend that the demand during the early days of COVID-19 created excess capacity that the truck market is still trying to absorb. However, it is unclear whether there was really an increase in overall capacity, or just realignment as many truckers decided to go out on their own. Regardless, there were a number of carriers that acquired capacity at historically high prices and must keep operating to just make their payments. The normal culling of unprofitable capacity was precluded by this inability to exit the market, ensuring a never-ending supply of zombie truckers. This capacity is getting older and more expensive to operate. Nevertheless, there is a feeling (or hope?) that 2026 will finally see marginal carriers leave the market and rate stability restored. Enhanced regulatory oversight The environmental green benefits of intermodal are not a priority for the current administration, so economic green will be paramount. Most likely that would come from increased regulatory oversight. Enhanced enforcement on non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses is reducing driver supply. And there is still the unknown of hacked electronic logging devices allowing for illegal hours of service. What is unclear is whether these initiatives will impact truckload and drayage carriers equally, or whether one segment will suffer disproportionate opprobrium. If it is the former, intermodal will be advantaged; however, if it is the latter, maybe not. The former would be a rising tide that would raise all intermodal ships, whereas the latter could see the further ascendance of bimodal operations with integrated drayage overseen by robust safety regimens. In an attempt to increase demand, we can expect major players to assume prominent roles. Railroads and bimodals will seek to deploy equipment that has been stored for years. Ocean carriers will continue to consider their inland options. Finally, ports may become more involved as they explore inland options to attract more discretionary cargo. There are no historical comparisons for the last five years. It is unclear when the market will turn, but when it does, the recovery will follow Ernest Hemingway’s description: “Gradually, then suddenly.” We can then hope for the sun also to rise on intermodal. Ted Prince is founder and CEO of Tri-Cities Intermodal LLC. Contact him at ted@tricitiesintermodal.com .

Intermodal providers

Supply chain

Pace of freight market recovery a matter of ‘gradually, then suddenly’

Shanghai to Santos

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Y-o-Y: {percet_year_Santos.formatNumber("##.#%")}

The Shanghai Shipping Exchange’s (SSE) Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reflects spot rates and associated seaborne charges for containerized exports from Shanghai. The SCFI includes indices of freight rates in 13 individual shipping routes and a composite index, using Oct. 16, 2009, as the base period (Oct. 16, 2009 = 1,000). [SSE](https://en.sse.net.cn/indices/scfinew.jsp)

Shanghai to Santos container spot rates (SSE)

Shanghai to Santos Container Spot Rates (SCFI-Weekly) Gateway

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Charleston’s total rail lifts for 2025 were about one-quarter of the planned capacity of Navy Base Intermodal Facility, prompting the port’s CEO to reset capital spending plans. </div>

Charleston’s total rail lifts for 2025 were about one-quarter of the planned capacity of Navy Base Intermodal Facility, prompting the port’s CEO to reset capital spending plans.

<div class="phx-topic">The Port of Charleston has paused work on its near-dock rail yard pending agreements with Class I railroads to service the facility, the port’s chief executive said, adding that shipper demand for more intermodal capacity may not be needed until 2028. South Carolina Ports Authority (SC Ports) Chief Executive Micah Mallace told state legislators last week Charleston has “slowed construction” of the Navy Base Intermodal Facility until it has finalized operating agreements with CSX Transportation and Norfolk Southern Railway (NS). “We are working on delivering operating agreements with the railroads,” Mallace said. “We aspire to finish that quickly. Upon successful completion of that, we will restart our delivery of the facility.” The last major work on the facility involves 80,000 feet of southbound track that would link Navy Base directly to both CSX and Norfolk Southern trackage. Navy Base has northern access that connects to CSX trackage, but the southern access is a preferred route for both railroads. Under previous chief executive Barbara Melvin, the port expected to announce <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/charlestons-navy-base-rail-yard-project-faces-delays-big-cost-overruns-6070926">a construction award for the project last October</a>, but that award has been paused. Mallace, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/sc-ports-taps-former-commercial-executive-to-lead-6092988">who took over as CEO that month</a>, has been <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/new-charleston-ceo-seeks-to-regain-container-growth-momentum-6104583">reevaluating the port’s capital spending plans</a> in light of slower growth in cargo demand. “SC Ports continues to work with our partners at CSX and NS to deliver additional rail capacity and enhance intermodal competitiveness to support growth in the Southeast market,” the port said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce. Mallace appeared before the South Carolina legislators to ask that some $2 million in state funding previously appropriated to SC Ports for joint development of a container terminal with the Georgia Port Authority (GPA) on the South Carolina side of the Savannah River be redirected to a local economic development agency. The request stemmed from the GPA’s “wish to deliver capacity on the Georgia side of the river,” Mallace said. <h3>Navy Base start anticipated for 2028 </h3>SC Ports previously forecast a potential 2026 launch of Navy Base service with CSX and later adding NS access by 2027 once the southern access and other infrastructure was complete. While there is no specific target for Navy Base’s full completion, Mallace said “we estimate needing to bring it on in 2028.” Intermodal cargo at the port is currently trucked to the CSX and NS intermodal facilities under Charleston’s “Rapid Rail” program. Navy Base allows the port to handle containers faster via a one-mile dedicated drayage road connected to the Leatherman marine terminal. Navy Base is designed to handle 1 million container lifts per year. It connects Charleston directly to its inland ports at Dillon and Greer, which are served respectively by CSX and NS, as well as other destinations in the Southeast. Dillon handled 48,761 container lifts last year, a 33% increase from 2024 largely due to a state initiative to reroute soybean shipments to export markets after the closure of a nearby processing facility, as well as demand from Dillon’s retailer shippers, according to SC Ports. Greer, which serves some of the state’s manufacturers and other retail distributors and can handle 300,000 lifts annually, saw approximately two-thirds of that at 197,805 container lifts last year, up 2% from a year earlier. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The Port of Charleston has paused work on its near-dock rail yard pending agreements with Class I railroads to service the facility, the port’s chief executive said, adding that shipper demand for more intermodal capacity may not be needed until 2028. South Carolina Ports Authority (SC Ports) Chief Executive Micah Mallace told state legislators last week Charleston has “slowed construction” of the Navy Base Intermodal Facility until it has finalized operating agreements with CSX Transportation and Norfolk Southern Railway (NS). “We are working on delivering operating agreements with the railroads,” Mallace said. “We aspire to finish that quickly. Upon successful completion of that, we will restart our delivery of the facility.” The last major work on the facility involves 80,000 feet of southbound track that would link Navy Base directly to both CSX and Norfolk Southern trackage. Navy Base has northern access that connects to CSX trackage, but the southern access is a preferred route for both railroads. Under previous chief executive Barbara Melvin, the port expected to announce a construction award for the project last October , but that award has been paused. Mallace, who took over as CEO that month , has been reevaluating the port’s capital spending plans in light of slower growth in cargo demand. “SC Ports continues to work with our partners at CSX and NS to deliver additional rail capacity and enhance intermodal competitiveness to support growth in the Southeast market,” the port said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce. Mallace appeared before the South Carolina legislators to ask that some $2 million in state funding previously appropriated to SC Ports for joint development of a container terminal with the Georgia Port Authority (GPA) on the South Carolina side of the Savannah River be redirected to a local economic development agency. The request stemmed from the GPA’s “wish to deliver capacity on the Georgia side of the river,” Mallace said. Navy Base start anticipated for 2028 SC Ports previously forecast a potential 2026 launch of Navy Base service with CSX and later adding NS access by 2027 once the southern access and other infrastructure was complete. While there is no specific target for Navy Base’s full completion, Mallace said “we estimate needing to bring it on in 2028.” Intermodal cargo at the port is currently trucked to the CSX and NS intermodal facilities under Charleston’s “Rapid Rail” program. Navy Base allows the port to handle containers faster via a one-mile dedicated drayage road connected to the Leatherman marine terminal. Navy Base is designed to handle 1 million container lifts per year. It connects Charleston directly to its inland ports at Dillon and Greer, which are served respectively by CSX and NS, as well as other destinations in the Southeast. Dillon handled 48,761 container lifts last year, a 33% increase from 2024 largely due to a state initiative to reroute soybean shipments to export markets after the closure of a nearby processing facility, as well as demand from Dillon’s retailer shippers, according to SC Ports. Greer, which serves some of the state’s manufacturers and other retail distributors and can handle 300,000 lifts annually, saw approximately two-thirds of that at 197,805 container lifts last year, up 2% from a year earlier. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Port infrastructure

Charleston slows railyard development amid insufficient shipper demand

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Momentum from robust growth on some Asian export trade lanes following the Christmas holidays has now slowed, with forwarders and analysts expecting muted demand over the coming two weeks.</div>

Momentum from robust growth on some Asian export trade lanes following the Christmas holidays has now slowed, with forwarders and analysts expecting muted demand over the coming two weeks.

<div class="phx-topic">Air cargo analysts and forwarders are expecting a modest pre-Lunar New Year uptick in exports on Asian trade lanes following solid demand growth in January from China to Europe and from Southeast Asia and Taiwan to the US. With the Lunar New Year beginning relatively late on Feb. 17, industry forecasts are for a gradual increase in volume and rates over the next two weeks before factories close for Asia’s main annual holiday. Capacity trends on the Asia-Europe lane suggest “robust” volume growth in January from China’s inland air freight hubs of Chongqing, Chengdu and Zhengzhou, according to Rotate analyst Ray Zedov. While Asia to US capacity was down year over year from all Asia-Pacific regions, “a deeper dive into the US market shows that capacity from Vietnam continues to grow as Chinese imports to the US are impacted by the new tariff policy in the US,” Zedov told the Journal of Commerce. The US removed its “de minimis” duty exemption on low-value goods from all its trading partners on Aug. 29 last year following the scrapping of duty-free access for low-value Chinese imports in May. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="33a72818-4d4c-4365-97ce-ccb39dab8dd8"></dynamic-object></div>Sou Ping Chee, regional head of air freight in Asia-Pacific for Hellmann Worldwide Logistics, said volume out of Asia had weakened by early February even with the holidays just two weeks away, which suggests muted demand this year. “However, there is still a general expectation that demand will pick up next week ahead of Lunar New Year from China, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Taiwan across industries before these markets close for the biggest festive season in this part of the world,” he said. An Asia-based executive at a global forwarder said he was not seeing any major uptick in demand on China-Europe and the wider Asia Pacific-North America market. “It remains rather flat and even prior to the Lunar New Year we are not seeing anything exceptional,” the source said. He added that although overall demand out of Asia-Pacific to North America has flattened out, demand out of Taipei and Vietnam has remained solid. “Taipei-US, Bangkok-US and Hanoi-US are busy,” he said. “Rates are holding steady at a higher level and demand remains strong, largely driven by AI-related components. Bangkok-Europe and Vietnam-Europe are also busy.” <h3>Rates rising on Asian export trade lanes </h3>Netherlands-based air cargo analyst WorldACD said after two weeks of strong sequential volume growth from Asia-Pacific to US and Europe markets, overall week-over-week growth came to a halt last week with flat volumes for both trade lanes. When compared with the same week last year, volume to the US was down 1% and volume to Europe was up 7%. While spot rates on the trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe in the last week of January were down 9% year over year, there were significant week-over-week increases on both trades, particularly from China origins, WorldACD data shows. Spot rates to the US last week rose 6% compared with the previous week to $4.02 per kilogram, while rates to Europe were up 7% at $3.80/kg as the market edged into the pre-Lunar New Year peak and capacity tightened on some airport pairings. Sou noted that rates on the Asian export trade lanes have remained at healthy levels in the first weeks of 2026 after softening over the Christmas period. “As such we do not expect as sharp an increase now, but rather spot rates are likely to creep up as we enter the last 10 days to Lunar New Year and pick up momentum from next week onwards,” he said. Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), said the moderate demand will extend to the full year, with global air freight demand in 2026 expected to grow 2.4% from 2025, although that would be down from last year’s 3.4% growth over 2024. “We can expect that demand will continue to be shaped by trade and geopolitical developments,” Walsh noted in a January market update, adding that carriers will continue to relocate capacity to support shifting trade patterns. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>.   </div>

Air cargo analysts and forwarders are expecting a modest pre-Lunar New Year uptick in exports on Asian trade lanes following solid demand growth in January from China to Europe and from Southeast Asia and Taiwan to the US. With the Lunar New Year beginning relatively late on Feb. 17, industry forecasts are for a gradual increase in volume and rates over the next two weeks before factories close for Asia’s main annual holiday. Capacity trends on the Asia-Europe lane suggest “robust” volume growth in January from China’s inland air freight hubs of Chongqing, Chengdu and Zhengzhou, according to Rotate analyst Ray Zedov. While Asia to US capacity was down year over year from all Asia-Pacific regions, “a deeper dive into the US market shows that capacity from Vietnam continues to grow as Chinese imports to the US are impacted by the new tariff policy in the US,” Zedov told the Journal of Commerce. The US removed its “de minimis” duty exemption on low-value goods from all its trading partners on Aug. 29 last year following the scrapping of duty-free access for low-value Chinese imports in May. Sou Ping Chee, regional head of air freight in Asia-Pacific for Hellmann Worldwide Logistics, said volume out of Asia had weakened by early February even with the holidays just two weeks away, which suggests muted demand this year. “However, there is still a general expectation that demand will pick up next week ahead of Lunar New Year from China, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Taiwan across industries before these markets close for the biggest festive season in this part of the world,” he said. An Asia-based executive at a global forwarder said he was not seeing any major uptick in demand on China-Europe and the wider Asia Pacific-North America market. “It remains rather flat and even prior to the Lunar New Year we are not seeing anything exceptional,” the source said. He added that although overall demand out of Asia-Pacific to North America has flattened out, demand out of Taipei and Vietnam has remained solid. “Taipei-US, Bangkok-US and Hanoi-US are busy,” he said. “Rates are holding steady at a higher level and demand remains strong, largely driven by AI-related components. Bangkok-Europe and Vietnam-Europe are also busy.” Rates rising on Asian export trade lanes Netherlands-based air cargo analyst WorldACD said after two weeks of strong sequential volume growth from Asia-Pacific to US and Europe markets, overall week-over-week growth came to a halt last week with flat volumes for both trade lanes. When compared with the same week last year, volume to the US was down 1% and volume to Europe was up 7%. While spot rates on the trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe in the last week of January were down 9% year over year, there were significant week-over-week increases on both trades, particularly from China origins, WorldACD data shows. Spot rates to the US last week rose 6% compared with the previous week to $4.02 per kilogram, while rates to Europe were up 7% at $3.80/kg as the market edged into the pre-Lunar New Year peak and capacity tightened on some airport pairings. Sou noted that rates on the Asian export trade lanes have remained at healthy levels in the first weeks of 2026 after softening over the Christmas period. “As such we do not expect as sharp an increase now, but rather spot rates are likely to creep up as we enter the last 10 days to Lunar New Year and pick up momentum from next week onwards,” he said. Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), said the moderate demand will extend to the full year, with global air freight demand in 2026 expected to grow 2.4% from 2025, although that would be down from last year’s 3.4% growth over 2024. “We can expect that demand will continue to be shaped by trade and geopolitical developments,” Walsh noted in a January market update, adding that carriers will continue to relocate capacity to support shifting trade patterns. Contact Greg Knowler at  greg.knowler@spglobal.com .   

Air Cargo Forwarder News

Air Cargo

Solid January demand to largely mute Lunar New Year air freight rush

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The India/Middle East-Mediterranean service will be the first Gemini loop in two years to transit the Red Sea, with plans for other services to follow “where possible,” the alliance partners say.</div>

The India/Middle East-Mediterranean service will be the first Gemini loop in two years to transit the Red Sea, with plans for other services to follow “where possible,” the alliance partners say.

<div class="phx-topic">Gemini Cooperation partners Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd said Tuesday that the first vessels in their ME11/IMX service will be routed through the Suez Canal in mid-February, with plans by the carriers to send two other services through the waterway. The Journal of Commerce reported on Jan. 15 that the ME11/IMX service <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/gemini-india-med-service-the-next-to-plan-return-to-red-seasuez-passage-6152941">would resume the Suez route “shortly,”</a> citing a Maersk executive. It would be the first time in more than two years that a Gemini service has transited the Red Sea. “The service in scope is the ME11 service, which connects India and the Middle East with the Mediterranean,” Maersk said in a statement. “From mid-February, changes will be implemented on westbound sailings as of the vessel Albert Maersk and on eastbound sailings as of the vessel Astrid Maersk.” On the initial westbound sailing, the Albert Maersk will depart Mundra in India on Feb. 4 after arriving from Jebel Ali in the United Arab Emirates; on the eastbound sailing, the Astrid Maersk will depart Valencia in Spain on Feb. 3. A naval escort will ride shotgun during the Red Sea passages to guard against attacks by Yemen’s Houthi militants, the Gemini statement noted. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd also said that “where possible,” they will redirect Gemini’s AE12 Asia-Mediterranean and AE15 Asia-Turkey services through the Red Sea and Suez “at a later stage.” The carriers said further information for customers will follow, but no further changes to the Gemini network related to the Red Sea were foreseen at this stage. “We see this announcement as another important milestone for the industry,” J.P. Morgan said Tuesday in a note to customers. “It demonstrates the willingness of container shipping lines to improve flows and increase sailings via the Suez Canal.” But the investment bank said the market has yet to price in a sustained return to the Suez, which will add up to 7% of effective capacity to the global fleet. Earlier this year, Maersk made its first structural move back into the Red Sea by <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/maersk-set-to-resume-regular-suez-transits-on-india-usec-mecl-loop-sources-6152441">rerouting its standalone MECL service</a>, which links the Middle East and India with the US East Coast via the Suez Canal. <h3>Regional unease over volatile US-Iran relations </h3>The regional situation remains tense, with a US carrier strike group now stationed in the Gulf of Oman to back up threats by President Donald Trump to launch military strikes on Iran. Tehran has vowed to respond to any attacks, which may spill over into the southern Red Sea controlled by Iran-backed Houthi militants. Gemini said switching the services from around the Cape of Good Hope to Suez would be carried out in a way that keeps disruption for customers to a minimum. But in a nod to the volatile regional security situation, the Gemini statement added: “Contingency plans are in place should the security situation deteriorate, which may necessitate reverting individual sailings or the wider structural change of the ME11 service back to the Cape of Good Hope route.” Carriers have been forced to divert vessels around southern Africa since late 2023, when the Houthis began their attacks against commercial shipping to protest Israel’s move into Gaza. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd also warned shippers to review their bookings on the ME11 service and ensure they had sufficient insurance cover for their cargo being transported through the area. <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/shippers-shoulder-burden-of-red-sea-uncertainty-as-regional-tensions-rise-again-6160632">Cargo insurance is a significant hurdle for shippers</a> with freight transiting the Red Sea. Some shippers say their insurance brokers have refused to provide cover, while others say the high cost of premiums was prohibitive. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>.     </div>

Gemini Cooperation partners Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd said Tuesday that the first vessels in their ME11/IMX service will be routed through the Suez Canal in mid-February, with plans by the carriers to send two other services through the waterway. The Journal of Commerce reported on Jan. 15 that the ME11/IMX service would resume the Suez route “shortly,” citing a Maersk executive. It would be the first time in more than two years that a Gemini service has transited the Red Sea. “The service in scope is the ME11 service, which connects India and the Middle East with the Mediterranean,” Maersk said in a statement. “From mid-February, changes will be implemented on westbound sailings as of the vessel Albert Maersk and on eastbound sailings as of the vessel Astrid Maersk.” On the initial westbound sailing, the Albert Maersk will depart Mundra in India on Feb. 4 after arriving from Jebel Ali in the United Arab Emirates; on the eastbound sailing, the Astrid Maersk will depart Valencia in Spain on Feb. 3. A naval escort will ride shotgun during the Red Sea passages to guard against attacks by Yemen’s Houthi militants, the Gemini statement noted. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd also said that “where possible,” they will redirect Gemini’s AE12 Asia-Mediterranean and AE15 Asia-Turkey services through the Red Sea and Suez “at a later stage.” The carriers said further information for customers will follow, but no further changes to the Gemini network related to the Red Sea were foreseen at this stage. “We see this announcement as another important milestone for the industry,” J.P. Morgan said Tuesday in a note to customers. “It demonstrates the willingness of container shipping lines to improve flows and increase sailings via the Suez Canal.” But the investment bank said the market has yet to price in a sustained return to the Suez, which will add up to 7% of effective capacity to the global fleet. Earlier this year, Maersk made its first structural move back into the Red Sea by rerouting its standalone MECL service , which links the Middle East and India with the US East Coast via the Suez Canal. Regional unease over volatile US-Iran relations The regional situation remains tense, with a US carrier strike group now stationed in the Gulf of Oman to back up threats by President Donald Trump to launch military strikes on Iran. Tehran has vowed to respond to any attacks, which may spill over into the southern Red Sea controlled by Iran-backed Houthi militants. Gemini said switching the services from around the Cape of Good Hope to Suez would be carried out in a way that keeps disruption for customers to a minimum. But in a nod to the volatile regional security situation, the Gemini statement added: “Contingency plans are in place should the security situation deteriorate, which may necessitate reverting individual sailings or the wider structural change of the ME11 service back to the Cape of Good Hope route.” Carriers have been forced to divert vessels around southern Africa since late 2023, when the Houthis began their attacks against commercial shipping to protest Israel’s move into Gaza. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd also warned shippers to review their bookings on the ME11 service and ensure they had sufficient insurance cover for their cargo being transported through the area. Cargo insurance is a significant hurdle for shippers with freight transiting the Red Sea. Some shippers say their insurance brokers have refused to provide cover, while others say the high cost of premiums was prohibitive. Contact Greg Knowler at  greg.knowler@spglobal.com .    

Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd confirm they’ll route Gemini service through Suez

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<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Sources say sustained weak market fundamentals have caused this year to be atypical in terms of demand in the immediate run-up to Lunar New Year, which begins Feb. 17.</div>

Sources say sustained weak market fundamentals have caused this year to be atypical in terms of demand in the immediate run-up to Lunar New Year, which begins Feb. 17.

<div class="phx-topic">Softer spot rates, weak volume forecasts and poor consumer sentiment spell one thing in the tariff-weary trans-Pacific container market: The traditional pre-Lunar New Year rush of cargo is not happening in 2026. Sources say sustained weak market fundamentals have caused this year to be atypical in terms of demand in the immediate run-up to Lunar New Year, which begins Feb. 17. Factories in China will close for at least a week for the holiday, which normally causes a freight surge of some magnitude before the doors shut. But not this year. “I would say demand is muted. There’s still uncertainty among retailers about tariffs,” an ocean carrier executive told the Journal of Commerce. “There has already been frontloading of spring merchandise.” To the extent there was any so-called rush at all, even in January, it is “clearly behind us,” said Peter Sand, chief analyst for the rate benchmarking platform Xeneta. “[This year] is another year where supply growth exceeds demand growth,” Sand said. Downward movement in spot rates before the Lunar New Year factory closures is largely the result of the weak demand from retailers and other importers. North Asia to US West Coast spot rates that started January at $2,075 per FEU were at $1,900 as of Tuesday, according to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Drewry had Shanghai-to-Los Angeles rates at $3,132 per FEU on Jan. 8, but those had fallen to $2,442 by month’s end. Shanghai-West Coast rates of $1,867 per FEU from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange as of Jan. 30 were down from $2,188 at the start of the month. According to all the indexes, current spot rates are about 50% lower than they were a year ago. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="7f641553-97ec-4014-8e54-fef6408538d9"></dynamic-object></div>A forwarder who spoke with the Journal of Commerce noted that the lower listed spot rates this week are only part of the story. Carriers are continuing to offer discount rates, known as bullet or voyage-specific rates, that are as much as several hundred dollars lower than the posted spot/freight-all-kinds (FAK) rates. For example, some lines are offering bullet rates of $1,750 per FEU to the West Coast and $2,500 per FEU to the East Coast, and they are readily available to shippers. “It’s the bullet rates that are moving cargo,” the source said. That pricing structure would seem to indicate that retailers and other importers will have leverage entering annual service contract negotiations that are already underway and will pick up in intensity in early March following the Journal of Commerce’s TPM26 conference in Long Beach. <h3>Blank sailings accelerating </h3>Meanwhile, blank sailings, another demand barometer, are accelerating in February. Data from eeSea shows that carriers intend thus far to blank 206,835 TEUs of capacity this month on the Asia-to-West Coast trade, up from 107,318 TEUs in January. From Asia to the East and Gulf coasts, the blanks so far in February are at 96,881 TEUs, according to eeSea, up from 77,339 TEUs in January. “Carriers are blanking extensively in the weeks commencing Feb. 23 and March 2 in classic response to the lower exports out of China as a result of the CNY festive days,” Xeneta’s Sand said. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="e5c8a2a0-9aa5-4787-bbed-bf4b7a9f9677"></dynamic-object></div>US retailers have already forecast weaker cargo volumes over the next three months. Global Port Tracker, published monthly by the National Retail Federation (NRF), forecasts that US imports in February will be down 4.6% from the same month a year earlier, with March imports down 12.6% and April down 8.1% from the year-earlier months. US import volumes are also impacted by the confidence of consumers to spend. According to the Conference Board, a think tank, the consumer confidence index fell to 84.5 in January, well below market expectations and the lowest reading since May 2014. “Confidence collapsed in January as consumer concerns about both the present situation and expectations for the future deepened,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>.Contact Mark Szakonyi at <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com">mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Softer spot rates, weak volume forecasts and poor consumer sentiment spell one thing in the tariff-weary trans-Pacific container market: The traditional pre-Lunar New Year rush of cargo is not happening in 2026. Sources say sustained weak market fundamentals have caused this year to be atypical in terms of demand in the immediate run-up to Lunar New Year, which begins Feb. 17. Factories in China will close for at least a week for the holiday, which normally causes a freight surge of some magnitude before the doors shut. But not this year. “I would say demand is muted. There’s still uncertainty among retailers about tariffs,” an ocean carrier executive told the Journal of Commerce. “There has already been frontloading of spring merchandise.” To the extent there was any so-called rush at all, even in January, it is “clearly behind us,” said Peter Sand, chief analyst for the rate benchmarking platform Xeneta. “[This year] is another year where supply growth exceeds demand growth,” Sand said. Downward movement in spot rates before the Lunar New Year factory closures is largely the result of the weak demand from retailers and other importers. North Asia to US West Coast spot rates that started January at $2,075 per FEU were at $1,900 as of Tuesday, according to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Drewry had Shanghai-to-Los Angeles rates at $3,132 per FEU on Jan. 8, but those had fallen to $2,442 by month’s end. Shanghai-West Coast rates of $1,867 per FEU from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange as of Jan. 30 were down from $2,188 at the start of the month. According to all the indexes, current spot rates are about 50% lower than they were a year ago. A forwarder who spoke with the Journal of Commerce noted that the lower listed spot rates this week are only part of the story. Carriers are continuing to offer discount rates, known as bullet or voyage-specific rates, that are as much as several hundred dollars lower than the posted spot/freight-all-kinds (FAK) rates. For example, some lines are offering bullet rates of $1,750 per FEU to the West Coast and $2,500 per FEU to the East Coast, and they are readily available to shippers. “It’s the bullet rates that are moving cargo,” the source said. That pricing structure would seem to indicate that retailers and other importers will have leverage entering annual service contract negotiations that are already underway and will pick up in intensity in early March following the Journal of Commerce’s TPM26 conference in Long Beach. Blank sailings accelerating Meanwhile, blank sailings, another demand barometer, are accelerating in February. Data from eeSea shows that carriers intend thus far to blank 206,835 TEUs of capacity this month on the Asia-to-West Coast trade, up from 107,318 TEUs in January. From Asia to the East and Gulf coasts, the blanks so far in February are at 96,881 TEUs, according to eeSea, up from 77,339 TEUs in January. “Carriers are blanking extensively in the weeks commencing Feb. 23 and March 2 in classic response to the lower exports out of China as a result of the CNY festive days,” Xeneta’s Sand said. US retailers have already forecast weaker cargo volumes over the next three months. Global Port Tracker, published monthly by the National Retail Federation (NRF), forecasts that US imports in February will be down 4.6% from the same month a year earlier, with March imports down 12.6% and April down 8.1% from the year-earlier months. US import volumes are also impacted by the confidence of consumers to spend. According to the Conference Board, a think tank, the consumer confidence index fell to 84.5 in January, well below market expectations and the lowest reading since May 2014. “Confidence collapsed in January as consumer concerns about both the present situation and expectations for the future deepened,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .Contact Mark Szakonyi at  mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com .

Tariffs claim another victim on the trans-Pacific: the pre-LNY cargo surge

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Both sides had been engaged in protracted negotiations to break the trade deadlock that had cut India’s imports to the US East Coast by more than 30% over the past six months.</div>

Both sides had been engaged in protracted negotiations to break the trade deadlock that had cut India’s imports to the US East Coast by more than 30% over the past six months.

<div class="phx-topic">The US and India on Monday said they reached a trade agreement after a months-long dispute, prompting Washington to cut tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from the 50% that went into effect last August. In a key concession, India said it would stop its purchases of Russian oil. “When two large economies and the world’s largest democracies work together, it benefits our people and unlocks immense opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation,” Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a statement. Both sides had been engaged in protracted negotiations to break the trade deadlock that had cut India’s imports to the US East Coast (USEC) by more than 30%. Further details, including the timeline for when the lower tariffs go into effect, were not immediately available. But the US said it would lower a “reciprocal” tariff on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, while also eliminating a separate 25% punitive tariff linked to India’s purchases of Russian oil. The lower tariffs make several Indian-made products, particularly textiles and apparel, more competitive than rival Asian sourcing markets, which augurs well for a potential trade boost between India and the US. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="ae1df54b-4003-46b5-a8c3-e0d35707e941"></dynamic-object></div>“This is big news for the India-US trade,” an executive at a European ocean carrier told the Journal of Commerce. “We are hoping to see a rebound in capacity demand.” Westbound volumes on the trade lane have been under tremendous pressure since the tariff uncertainty, forcing carriers to push ocean rates down to recent lows. Carriers have also been strategically adjusting capacity through blank calls to keep supply-demand dynamics as balanced as possible. Imports from India to the USEC have fallen 32% since the trade dispute broke out, from 93,160 TEUs in August to 63,590 TEUs in December, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="893ffa5c-0a69-45c7-a555-425e44318711"></dynamic-object></div>And spot rates from India to the USEC that were $2,640 per FEU on Aug. 1 have steadily fallen since to $1,212.50 as of Jan. 30, down 54%, according to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Major carriers have been unable to hold on to their intended rate hikes over the past few months with little demand support emerging. Contact Bency Mathew at <a href="mailto:bencyvmathew@gmail.com">bencyvmathew@gmail.com</a>.</div>

The US and India on Monday said they reached a trade agreement after a months-long dispute, prompting Washington to cut tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from the 50% that went into effect last August. In a key concession, India said it would stop its purchases of Russian oil. “When two large economies and the world’s largest democracies work together, it benefits our people and unlocks immense opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation,” Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a statement. Both sides had been engaged in protracted negotiations to break the trade deadlock that had cut India’s imports to the US East Coast (USEC) by more than 30%. Further details, including the timeline for when the lower tariffs go into effect, were not immediately available. But the US said it would lower a “reciprocal” tariff on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, while also eliminating a separate 25% punitive tariff linked to India’s purchases of Russian oil. The lower tariffs make several Indian-made products, particularly textiles and apparel, more competitive than rival Asian sourcing markets, which augurs well for a potential trade boost between India and the US. “This is big news for the India-US trade,” an executive at a European ocean carrier told the Journal of Commerce. “We are hoping to see a rebound in capacity demand.” Westbound volumes on the trade lane have been under tremendous pressure since the tariff uncertainty, forcing carriers to push ocean rates down to recent lows. Carriers have also been strategically adjusting capacity through blank calls to keep supply-demand dynamics as balanced as possible. Imports from India to the USEC have fallen 32% since the trade dispute broke out, from 93,160 TEUs in August to 63,590 TEUs in December, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. And spot rates from India to the USEC that were $2,640 per FEU on Aug. 1 have steadily fallen since to $1,212.50 as of Jan. 30, down 54%, according to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Major carriers have been unable to hold on to their intended rate hikes over the past few months with little demand support emerging. Contact Bency Mathew at bencyvmathew@gmail.com .

US agrees to slash tariffs on imports from India after reaching trade deal

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Marine terminals are using the new longshore contract to tackle one of the port’s recurring problems, with the union’s support, as they look to boost efficiency at the biggest port along the US East Coast. </div>

Marine terminals are using the new longshore contract to tackle one of the port’s recurring problems, with the union’s support, as they look to boost efficiency at the biggest port along the US East Coast.

<div class="phx-topic">Marine terminals at the Port of New York and New Jersey have made the first — albeit very small — cuts of chronically absent employees under terms outlined in the new local longshore contract, one of the main concessions employers won under the deal to boost productivity at the port. John Nardi, president of the Shipping Association of New York and New Jersey, which represents maritime employers at the port, said this week five local longshore workers were fired in January under the new unexcused absentee policy his group negotiated in the local contract with the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA). The cuts are miniscule in relation to the port’s 4,400 ILA workers. But Nardi said the new policy’s message has had an impact by cutting absenteeism at the port in half since the new contract, something that employers have “fought for years to improve.” “We worked very closely with the ILA to fix some longstanding challenges,” Nardi said. “We had the full support of the ILA at the highest level. We’re not fooling around on this.” The ILA did not respond to a request for comment from the Journal of Commerce. The local contract was officially ratified last year as part of the master contract between the ILA and the United States Maritime Alliance, with the union securing a 62% increase in its top wage tier through 2030. The first year of that wage increase, along with a higher entry-level wage and manning changes, have resulted in a nearly 20% increase in labor costs for marine terminals since March 2025, according to a source familiar with the deal’s economics. <h3>Monday popular for absenteeism </h3>The master contract required all East and Gulf coast ports to draw up absentee policies. But absenteeism is a particular problem for the NY-NJ port relative to other East Coast ports, where longshore workers use hiring halls or telephonic dispatch to take any daily jobs listed as available at any of a port’s various facilities. NY-NJ maritime employers rely on specific longshore workers due to the different layout and equipment at each of its six container terminals. Marine terminals put out orders the day prior for how many longshore workers they need. ILA members at those terminals can then accept the day’s work, or it gets offered to someone else. Absenteeism can be particularly acute on Mondays. An ILA member may have worked at a time-and-half wage rate on the weekend but not show up for a shift at a regular time wage rate on Monday, despite having committed to that day’s work. “You can take a couple of days off for unanticipated reasons, but if you leave yourself in the system and accept a job, you need to take that job,” Nardi said. “You can’t just not show up without repercussions.” Under the new policy, longshore workers are allowed three days of unexcused absences each month. But unexcused absences following a weekend or a holiday count as one-and-half of those days, as do consecutive days of unexcused absences. The disciplinary escalation to firing is shortened under the new contract from seven unexcused absences to four. While longshore workers had a pass until the second unexcused absence for a warning letter, the first unexcused absence now results in a warning letter. Under the old contract, longshore workers were relegated to lower-paying, dispatched jobs at the cruise and roll-on/roll-off terminals for several periods of time before a possible termination. But the new contract only offers one relegation period, followed by a two-week suspension and then firing. The new contract also has a stricter policy around longshore employees who unexpectedly leave work during their shift. <h3>Container move clause </h3>The new, local NY-NJ contract also has requirements that each longshore gang improve productivity by one container move each year, otherwise they lose seniority to another more productive gang. The number of longshore workers hired as standby relief went up under the new contract from three workers for every two jobs to two workers for every one job. However, Nardi said the additional relief has to be cost-neutral for employers and is contingent on productivity goals. Close to a year under the new contract, Nardi said the new absenteeism policy, along with the productivity measures, have resulted in a 7% increase in productivity at the port’s biggest terminals. He added that improved labor productivity aligns with the ILA’s goal of halting port automation. During contract negotiations, ILA President Harold Daggett also <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ila-usmx-remain-at-odds-over-dockworker-wage-increases-daggett-5215515">appealed to the union’s rank-and-file</a> to improve their productivity due to the potential for job loss from automation. “If [the ILA is] focused on stemming the tide of automation, then people need to show up,” Nardi said. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Marine terminals at the Port of New York and New Jersey have made the first — albeit very small — cuts of chronically absent employees under terms outlined in the new local longshore contract, one of the main concessions employers won under the deal to boost productivity at the port. John Nardi, president of the Shipping Association of New York and New Jersey, which represents maritime employers at the port, said this week five local longshore workers were fired in January under the new unexcused absentee policy his group negotiated in the local contract with the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA). The cuts are miniscule in relation to the port’s 4,400 ILA workers. But Nardi said the new policy’s message has had an impact by cutting absenteeism at the port in half since the new contract, something that employers have “fought for years to improve.” “We worked very closely with the ILA to fix some longstanding challenges,” Nardi said. “We had the full support of the ILA at the highest level. We’re not fooling around on this.” The ILA did not respond to a request for comment from the Journal of Commerce. The local contract was officially ratified last year as part of the master contract between the ILA and the United States Maritime Alliance, with the union securing a 62% increase in its top wage tier through 2030. The first year of that wage increase, along with a higher entry-level wage and manning changes, have resulted in a nearly 20% increase in labor costs for marine terminals since March 2025, according to a source familiar with the deal’s economics. Monday popular for absenteeism The master contract required all East and Gulf coast ports to draw up absentee policies. But absenteeism is a particular problem for the NY-NJ port relative to other East Coast ports, where longshore workers use hiring halls or telephonic dispatch to take any daily jobs listed as available at any of a port’s various facilities. NY-NJ maritime employers rely on specific longshore workers due to the different layout and equipment at each of its six container terminals. Marine terminals put out orders the day prior for how many longshore workers they need. ILA members at those terminals can then accept the day’s work, or it gets offered to someone else. Absenteeism can be particularly acute on Mondays. An ILA member may have worked at a time-and-half wage rate on the weekend but not show up for a shift at a regular time wage rate on Monday, despite having committed to that day’s work. “You can take a couple of days off for unanticipated reasons, but if you leave yourself in the system and accept a job, you need to take that job,” Nardi said. “You can’t just not show up without repercussions.” Under the new policy, longshore workers are allowed three days of unexcused absences each month. But unexcused absences following a weekend or a holiday count as one-and-half of those days, as do consecutive days of unexcused absences. The disciplinary escalation to firing is shortened under the new contract from seven unexcused absences to four. While longshore workers had a pass until the second unexcused absence for a warning letter, the first unexcused absence now results in a warning letter. Under the old contract, longshore workers were relegated to lower-paying, dispatched jobs at the cruise and roll-on/roll-off terminals for several periods of time before a possible termination. But the new contract only offers one relegation period, followed by a two-week suspension and then firing. The new contract also has a stricter policy around longshore employees who unexpectedly leave work during their shift. Container move clause The new, local NY-NJ contract also has requirements that each longshore gang improve productivity by one container move each year, otherwise they lose seniority to another more productive gang. The number of longshore workers hired as standby relief went up under the new contract from three workers for every two jobs to two workers for every one job. However, Nardi said the additional relief has to be cost-neutral for employers and is contingent on productivity goals. Close to a year under the new contract, Nardi said the new absenteeism policy, along with the productivity measures, have resulted in a 7% increase in productivity at the port’s biggest terminals. He added that improved labor productivity aligns with the ILA’s goal of halting port automation. During contract negotiations, ILA President Harold Daggett also appealed to the union’s rank-and-file to improve their productivity due to the potential for job loss from automation. “If [the ILA is] focused on stemming the tide of automation, then people need to show up,” Nardi said. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

NY-NJ port’s stricter absentee policy results in first longshore cuts 

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">With few opportunities for large-scale consolidation and freight rates under growing pressure from slowing volumes and the largest-ever order book, liners will need to look elsewhere to save costs; it won’t be long before AI offers up ready solutions, writes Peter Tirschwell.</div>

With few opportunities for large-scale consolidation and freight rates under growing pressure from slowing volumes and the largest-ever order book, liners will need to look elsewhere to save costs; it won’t be long before AI offers up ready solutions, writes Peter Tirschwell.

<div class="phx-topic">Freight transportation companies, including ocean carriers, closely scrutinize the cost structure of their competitors. The reason is existential: In highly competitive and quasi-commodity markets, companies with lower costs can undercut the competition, walking away with customers, revenues and market share. With artificial intelligence (AI) entering the picture, offering the potential for mass-automation of human tasks, an ever-present focus on cost is set to be hyper-charged. The race is on to leverage AI to lower costs as quickly and aggressively as possible, with one forwarder telling the Journal of Commerce the urgency is more a matter of remaining competitive — and ultimately remaining in business — than improving profitability. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6162804_0.1.jpg"></img></div>“One issue that stands out is the opportunity to use AI to cut costs ... the supply chain sector is ripe for major cost savings,” Benjamin Gordon, managing partner of Cambridge Capital, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/bengordon18_bgsaconference-activity-7422998274158137344-KhAK?utm_source=share&amp;utm_medium=member_desktop&amp;rcm=ACoAAADfW-8BOfvVS8-hsN9U369b-ZDwYA85OWY">wrote in late January</a> following his annual BGSA Supply Chain Conference. Among ocean container carriers, blocks of cost were taken out over decades through a series of mergers and acquisitions that took the market share of the top 10 carriers from about 50% in the mid-1990s to nearly 85% today, according to Alphaliner. But with few further opportunities for large-scale consolidation and freight rates under growing pressure from slowing volumes and the largest-ever order book, carriers will need to look elsewhere. It won’t be long before AI offers up ready solutions. The reason, some way, is that big new pockets of cost are able to be removed by automating a range of core carrier processes including customer service, dispute resolution, scrutiny of vendor invoices, and the order-to-cash cycle. <h3>Customer service inquires primed for automation </h3>Customer service is a prime target. Customer inquiries regarding vessel ETA, last free day, extension on free time, whether a bill of lading (BoL) has been sent or if a draft BoL can be sent, all are standardized processes ripe for automation, said Siddharth Vijay, founder of New York-based Lynk Labs, which is building AI agents to automate core operational workflows at supply chain companies. Vijay estimates that 40% of ocean carrier customer service volume can be automated, with humans left to focus on exceptions. “I estimate this number can get up to 70% in the next two years,” he told the Journal of Commerce. Assuming a $30,000 fully loaded headcount cost per customer service representative, if a carrier has 2,000 staff, the savings would be about $24 million per year. If the staff count is 5,000, the savings could reach $60 million per year, Vijay estimated. Those numbers are too big to be ignored. “This only accounts for the headcount savings,” he said. “The other large value proposition is improving customer relationships with timely, rapid answers,” a key KPI for customer service teams. It is unlikely that ocean carriers, even though they tend to be conservative organizations, will not soon begin exploring such opportunities given the competitive implications. In the area of dispute resolution, to handle thousands of billing and service disputes, ocean carriers employ small armies to research history, exceptions and documentation required to resolve the dispute. Vijay said AI can make the process vastly more efficient by identifying root causes of disputes to enable carriers to proactively fix systemic issues, summarizing disputes and suggesting resolutions to improve handling time per dispute and reducing the number of disputes. <h3>AI and carrier decision-making a ‘very viable’ pairing </h3>For ocean carriers, there may be an even bigger prize from large-scale integration of AI. Could AI one day soon drive core carrier decision-making regarding when to accept or reject bookings, where to position empty containers, what ports to call, when to blank sailings, and where to deploy ships, all rolled up into running the business to maximize profit? Such a scenario is “very viable,” Vijay said. “I don’t think it is far-fetched at all,” he said. “At its core, this is what we call a constrained optimization problem. Given vessels, capacity, rates, port constraints, and customer commitments, etc., what is the profit-maximizing network?” “The hardest part isn’t the AI algorithm itself; it’s aggregating clean, operational data across the carrier and having enough representative historical examples to ‘train’ and validate the system,” Vijay added. “In other words, it’s fundamentally a data availability problem.” Contact Peter Tirschwell at <a href="mailto:peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com">peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Freight transportation companies, including ocean carriers, closely scrutinize the cost structure of their competitors. The reason is existential: In highly competitive and quasi-commodity markets, companies with lower costs can undercut the competition, walking away with customers, revenues and market share. With artificial intelligence (AI) entering the picture, offering the potential for mass-automation of human tasks, an ever-present focus on cost is set to be hyper-charged. The race is on to leverage AI to lower costs as quickly and aggressively as possible, with one forwarder telling the Journal of Commerce the urgency is more a matter of remaining competitive — and ultimately remaining in business — than improving profitability. “One issue that stands out is the opportunity to use AI to cut costs ... the supply chain sector is ripe for major cost savings,” Benjamin Gordon, managing partner of Cambridge Capital, wrote in late January following his annual BGSA Supply Chain Conference. Among ocean container carriers, blocks of cost were taken out over decades through a series of mergers and acquisitions that took the market share of the top 10 carriers from about 50% in the mid-1990s to nearly 85% today, according to Alphaliner. But with few further opportunities for large-scale consolidation and freight rates under growing pressure from slowing volumes and the largest-ever order book, carriers will need to look elsewhere. It won’t be long before AI offers up ready solutions. The reason, some way, is that big new pockets of cost are able to be removed by automating a range of core carrier processes including customer service, dispute resolution, scrutiny of vendor invoices, and the order-to-cash cycle. Customer service inquires primed for automation Customer service is a prime target. Customer inquiries regarding vessel ETA, last free day, extension on free time, whether a bill of lading (BoL) has been sent or if a draft BoL can be sent, all are standardized processes ripe for automation, said Siddharth Vijay, founder of New York-based Lynk Labs, which is building AI agents to automate core operational workflows at supply chain companies. Vijay estimates that 40% of ocean carrier customer service volume can be automated, with humans left to focus on exceptions. “I estimate this number can get up to 70% in the next two years,” he told the Journal of Commerce. Assuming a $30,000 fully loaded headcount cost per customer service representative, if a carrier has 2,000 staff, the savings would be about $24 million per year. If the staff count is 5,000, the savings could reach $60 million per year, Vijay estimated. Those numbers are too big to be ignored. “This only accounts for the headcount savings,” he said. “The other large value proposition is improving customer relationships with timely, rapid answers,” a key KPI for customer service teams. It is unlikely that ocean carriers, even though they tend to be conservative organizations, will not soon begin exploring such opportunities given the competitive implications. In the area of dispute resolution, to handle thousands of billing and service disputes, ocean carriers employ small armies to research history, exceptions and documentation required to resolve the dispute. Vijay said AI can make the process vastly more efficient by identifying root causes of disputes to enable carriers to proactively fix systemic issues, summarizing disputes and suggesting resolutions to improve handling time per dispute and reducing the number of disputes. AI and carrier decision-making a ‘very viable’ pairing For ocean carriers, there may be an even bigger prize from large-scale integration of AI. Could AI one day soon drive core carrier decision-making regarding when to accept or reject bookings, where to position empty containers, what ports to call, when to blank sailings, and where to deploy ships, all rolled up into running the business to maximize profit? Such a scenario is “very viable,” Vijay said. “I don’t think it is far-fetched at all,” he said. “At its core, this is what we call a constrained optimization problem. Given vessels, capacity, rates, port constraints, and customer commitments, etc., what is the profit-maximizing network?” “The hardest part isn’t the AI algorithm itself; it’s aggregating clean, operational data across the carrier and having enough representative historical examples to ‘train’ and validate the system,” Vijay added. “In other words, it’s fundamentally a data availability problem.” Contact Peter Tirschwell at peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com .

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