<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Downward pressure on rates is set to continue with just over 1 million TEUs of capacity via ships above 10,000 TEUs scheduled to be delivered this year. </div>

Downward pressure on rates is set to continue with just over 1 million TEUs of capacity via ships above 10,000 TEUs scheduled to be delivered this year.

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<div class="phx-topic">The urgent need to increase the virtually non-existent scrapping of old container ships as new vessels flood online is a key challenge for the industry as it navigates an increasingly oversupplied market, according to carriers and analysts. Pre-tax quarterly losses have already appeared on the balance sheets of <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/gemini-benefits-face-looming-challenge-from-oversupplied-market-maersk-ceo-6164887">Maersk</a>, its first in two years; and <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/frontloading-drags-one-to-a-loss-in-its-fiscal-third-quarter-6161263">Ocean Network Express</a>, its first quarterly loss since Q2 2018; with <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/fourth-quarter-rate-slump-drags-down-hapag-lloyds-2025-financials-6166755">Hapag-Lloyd</a> and <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/hmm-profitability-falls-as-carrier-warns-of-growing-supply-demand-imbalance-6167842">HMM</a> both reporting steep declines in Q4 profitability. Downward pressure on rates is set to continue with just over 1 million TEUs of capacity via ships above 10,000 TEUs scheduled to be delivered this year. That will be followed by 2.3 million TEUs of capacity due for delivery in 2027 and 3.4 million TEUs in 2028, according to Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. There is no sign of carriers pausing ship orders, either. A record 4.8 million TEUs of new ship capacity was ordered in 2025 and that momentum has carried into 2026 with another 290,000 TEUs ordered in January, according to maritime consultancy Drewry. Even as the capacity overhang is pushed further out, scrapping remains at negligible levels. Drewry said <a href="https://www.drewry.co.uk/container-insight-weekly/weekly-feature-articles/bath-taps-wide-open-for-new-containerships">in its container insight</a> that 6,000 TEUs of capacity was scrapped in 2025, while Alphaliner puts the number slightly higher at 8,172 TEUs, calling it the lowest number in 20 years, according to their data. Shipping association Bimco estimated late last year that the share of ships 20 years old or older in the global fleet had increased from 16% at the beginning of 2020 to around 24%, putting the recycling overhang at 500 ships with a combined capacity of 1.8 million TEUs. <h3>Challenge to profitability </h3>In the financial results announced so far by ocean carriers, overcapacity was highlighted as a significant challenge to profitability. The most optimistic prediction is for global volumes to grow 4% this year, but with the steady influx of new ships and a return of some services to the Suez Canal, Maersk is expecting overcapacity in 2026 to be as high as 8%. The severe impact of overcapacity on the market and a reluctance of carriers to scrap older vessels was outlined in Maersk’s 2026 profitability forecast announced last week. Faced with a return to the Suez and new industry capacity coming online, Maersk flagged a potential $1.5 billion loss in its full-year EBIT earnings for 2026; it would be the first operating loss the carrier has booked in 10 years. The top end of the profit guidance was set at $1 billion, $2.5 billion less than last year’s result. “The pace and extent of scrapping will influence whether the company reaches the upper or lower end of its financial guidance for the year,” Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said on last week’s earnings call, noting that an increase in scrapping would likely be triggered by a wider industry return to the Suez. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="994022ec-453b-46eb-b729-fcd589a9082d"></dynamic-object></div>Alphaliner took a similar view and is anticipating a rally of recycling in the second half of 2026, but only if the Suez route is once again widely used. Should Cape of Good Hope diversions continue through the year — along with the expected healthy cargo volumes, a moderate amount of newbuilding deliveries and a persistently tight supply of chartered tonnage – trading conditions could be good enough for ship owners to mostly stay clear of the recycling scene. “The rebound in scrapping would then be deferred to 2027 and 2028 when the colossal amount of newbuilding deliveries expected to hit the water during these two years will force a streamlining of the fleet,” Alphaliner noted. <h3>Over-ordering ‘a hard-wired habit’ </h3>Drewry’s five-year forecast includes a material increase in scrapping and is based on market conditions and nearly 1.5 million TEUs of the global fleet being at least 25 years old. Still, the consultancy warned that excess capacity would remain. “Over-ordering and limited demolitions have become consistent features of the industry over the past 15 or so years,” Drewry wrote in its container insight. “Therefore, one might question if this is a hard-wired habit that carriers will not be able to shake. Consolidation and bigger alliances were supposed to bring about more control, but there is little evidence of it to date.” Ocean carriers are already aggressively managing capacity through blank sailings and slow steaming, but Drewry said if scrapping levels did not increase soon, carriers would have to consider a further reduction in speed. “Spending billions on new hardware, only to then operate them significantly below design speed seems an inefficient waste,” Drewry said. “It would be better to tackle the problem at source and start removing vintage ships at scale.” Container shipping on the major east-west trades is now firmly in a buyers’ market, but Drewry warned shippers not to get too comfortable with that position. “While carrier behavior is notoriously difficult to predict, we have to assume that lines will not sit back idly and allow the market to drift against them without a fight,” the consultant noted. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The urgent need to increase the virtually non-existent scrapping of old container ships as new vessels flood online is a key challenge for the industry as it navigates an increasingly oversupplied market, according to carriers and analysts. Pre-tax quarterly losses have already appeared on the balance sheets of Maersk , its first in two years; and Ocean Network Express , its first quarterly loss since Q2 2018; with Hapag-Lloyd and HMM both reporting steep declines in Q4 profitability. Downward pressure on rates is set to continue with just over 1 million TEUs of capacity via ships above 10,000 TEUs scheduled to be delivered this year. That will be followed by 2.3 million TEUs of capacity due for delivery in 2027 and 3.4 million TEUs in 2028, according to Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. There is no sign of carriers pausing ship orders, either. A record 4.8 million TEUs of new ship capacity was ordered in 2025 and that momentum has carried into 2026 with another 290,000 TEUs ordered in January, according to maritime consultancy Drewry. Even as the capacity overhang is pushed further out, scrapping remains at negligible levels. Drewry said in its container insight that 6,000 TEUs of capacity was scrapped in 2025, while Alphaliner puts the number slightly higher at 8,172 TEUs, calling it the lowest number in 20 years, according to their data. Shipping association Bimco estimated late last year that the share of ships 20 years old or older in the global fleet had increased from 16% at the beginning of 2020 to around 24%, putting the recycling overhang at 500 ships with a combined capacity of 1.8 million TEUs. Challenge to profitability In the financial results announced so far by ocean carriers, overcapacity was highlighted as a significant challenge to profitability. The most optimistic prediction is for global volumes to grow 4% this year, but with the steady influx of new ships and a return of some services to the Suez Canal, Maersk is expecting overcapacity in 2026 to be as high as 8%. The severe impact of overcapacity on the market and a reluctance of carriers to scrap older vessels was outlined in Maersk’s 2026 profitability forecast announced last week. Faced with a return to the Suez and new industry capacity coming online, Maersk flagged a potential $1.5 billion loss in its full-year EBIT earnings for 2026; it would be the first operating loss the carrier has booked in 10 years. The top end of the profit guidance was set at $1 billion, $2.5 billion less than last year’s result. “The pace and extent of scrapping will influence whether the company reaches the upper or lower end of its financial guidance for the year,” Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said on last week’s earnings call, noting that an increase in scrapping would likely be triggered by a wider industry return to the Suez. Alphaliner took a similar view and is anticipating a rally of recycling in the second half of 2026, but only if the Suez route is once again widely used. Should Cape of Good Hope diversions continue through the year — along with the expected healthy cargo volumes, a moderate amount of newbuilding deliveries and a persistently tight supply of chartered tonnage – trading conditions could be good enough for ship owners to mostly stay clear of the recycling scene. “The rebound in scrapping would then be deferred to 2027 and 2028 when the colossal amount of newbuilding deliveries expected to hit the water during these two years will force a streamlining of the fleet,” Alphaliner noted. Over-ordering ‘a hard-wired habit’ Drewry’s five-year forecast includes a material increase in scrapping and is based on market conditions and nearly 1.5 million TEUs of the global fleet being at least 25 years old. Still, the consultancy warned that excess capacity would remain. “Over-ordering and limited demolitions have become consistent features of the industry over the past 15 or so years,” Drewry wrote in its container insight. “Therefore, one might question if this is a hard-wired habit that carriers will not be able to shake. Consolidation and bigger alliances were supposed to bring about more control, but there is little evidence of it to date.” Ocean carriers are already aggressively managing capacity through blank sailings and slow steaming, but Drewry said if scrapping levels did not increase soon, carriers would have to consider a further reduction in speed. “Spending billions on new hardware, only to then operate them significantly below design speed seems an inefficient waste,” Drewry said. “It would be better to tackle the problem at source and start removing vintage ships at scale.” Container shipping on the major east-west trades is now firmly in a buyers’ market, but Drewry warned shippers not to get too comfortable with that position. “While carrier behavior is notoriously difficult to predict, we have to assume that lines will not sit back idly and allow the market to drift against them without a fight,” the consultant noted. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Container lines

Container Shipping News

Maritime

Scrapping strategy looms large in 2026 as carriers manage growing oversupply

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The fourth-largest US domestic intermodal provider has received additional funding and now must focus on meeting revenue and expenditure targets through the second quarter.</div>

The fourth-largest US domestic intermodal provider has received additional funding and now must focus on meeting revenue and expenditure targets through the second quarter.

<div class="phx-topic">STG Logistics has received $40 million in new funding and another reserve fund of $25 million after a deal was reached between lenders ahead of a key hearing before a New Jersey bankruptcy court. The deal agreed to on Tuesday results in a temporary truce between two lenders who sued STG Logistics in a New York court and a group of lenders who provided the rescue funds when <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/stg-files-ch-11-bankruptcy-but-intermodal-operations-remain-intact-6150641">the bankruptcy was filed on Jan. 12</a>. STG operates a thriving transloading and drayage business and is also the fourth-largest US domestic intermodal provider with 15,000 privately-owned containers. The agreement allows Axos Financial and Siemens Financial Solutions to proceed as a sub-case within the bankruptcy case in exchange for withdrawing an objection to the rescue funding. If a deal had not been struck, then the bankruptcy judge would have ruled on the objection Tuesday. The final order authorizes STG to pay drivers, warehouse workers, and railroads, among others. STG owed Union Pacific Railroad $13.4 million in back payments, significantly more than the $1.2 million owed to CSX Transportation. In exchange for receiving payment, the railroads cannot change credit terms with STG or increase rates or fees while it remains in Chapter 11 bankruptcy. <h3>Default triggers </h3>Hurdles remain in STG’s efforts to emerge from bankruptcy restructuring. The original bankruptcy filing included a 13-week budget outlining projected revenue from operations and expenses. If STG spends more than 115% of the budgeted expenses, fails to book at least 80% of the estimated revenue, or falls below $50 million in cash on hand, then it will be considered in default. A default doesn’t automatically mean operations would cease, but it gives the lenders the right to stop the cash flow entirely. STG did not fall below the 80% threshold after the recent winter storm briefly disrupted operations on UP and CSX, according to a source close to the bankruptcy hearing. Next month, there will be a window known as a “sale toggle” in which the lenders could decide to sell the company to an outside bidder, who then would decide how to manage STG’s operations. The sale toggle is a standard practice in Chapter 11 bankruptcy allowing the bankrupt company to explore other offers. Finally, the Axos-Siemens case isn’t resolved, just shifted to a sub-case. The bankruptcy judge must still rule before STG emerges from bankruptcy. If the judge rules in favor of Axos and Siemens, the group of rescue lenders could pull their financial support. Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

STG Logistics has received $40 million in new funding and another reserve fund of $25 million after a deal was reached between lenders ahead of a key hearing before a New Jersey bankruptcy court. The deal agreed to on Tuesday results in a temporary truce between two lenders who sued STG Logistics in a New York court and a group of lenders who provided the rescue funds when the bankruptcy was filed on Jan. 12 . STG operates a thriving transloading and drayage business and is also the fourth-largest US domestic intermodal provider with 15,000 privately-owned containers. The agreement allows Axos Financial and Siemens Financial Solutions to proceed as a sub-case within the bankruptcy case in exchange for withdrawing an objection to the rescue funding. If a deal had not been struck, then the bankruptcy judge would have ruled on the objection Tuesday. The final order authorizes STG to pay drivers, warehouse workers, and railroads, among others. STG owed Union Pacific Railroad $13.4 million in back payments, significantly more than the $1.2 million owed to CSX Transportation. In exchange for receiving payment, the railroads cannot change credit terms with STG or increase rates or fees while it remains in Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Default triggers Hurdles remain in STG’s efforts to emerge from bankruptcy restructuring. The original bankruptcy filing included a 13-week budget outlining projected revenue from operations and expenses. If STG spends more than 115% of the budgeted expenses, fails to book at least 80% of the estimated revenue, or falls below $50 million in cash on hand, then it will be considered in default. A default doesn’t automatically mean operations would cease, but it gives the lenders the right to stop the cash flow entirely. STG did not fall below the 80% threshold after the recent winter storm briefly disrupted operations on UP and CSX, according to a source close to the bankruptcy hearing. Next month, there will be a window known as a “sale toggle” in which the lenders could decide to sell the company to an outside bidder, who then would decide how to manage STG’s operations. The sale toggle is a standard practice in Chapter 11 bankruptcy allowing the bankrupt company to explore other offers. Finally, the Axos-Siemens case isn’t resolved, just shifted to a sub-case. The bankruptcy judge must still rule before STG emerges from bankruptcy. If the judge rules in favor of Axos and Siemens, the group of rescue lenders could pull their financial support. Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Rail News

Intermodal providers

Surface

STG Logistics survives key bankruptcy hurdle to remain in business

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">La Caisse, a major infrastructure fund and co-investor with DP World, said it wants clarity from the ports operator about Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem’s relationship with the convicted sex trafficker after messages between the two men became public this week.</div>

La Caisse, a major infrastructure fund and co-investor with DP World, said it wants clarity from the ports operator about Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem’s relationship with the convicted sex trafficker after messages between the two men became public this week.

<div class="phx-topic">A Quebec-based pension fund has put future investments with DP World on hold until the ports operator clarifies the relationship its chief executive had with deceased sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The pause could slow development of Canada’s next big container terminal. La Caisse, which has C$496 billion in assets under management, said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce Wednesday it is waiting to hear from DP World about what steps it is taking in regards to its Chairman and Chief Executive Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem after messages between him and Epstein were released by US Congressional representatives this week as part of a probe into Epstein’s ties to rich and powerful men across the globe. Some of <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/c813601e-e8cb-4eb9-b1de-6ca504bb689f">the messages between Sulayem and Epstein</a> were sexual in nature. La Caisse, which has invested in DP World port projects across the world, said that until it hears from DP World, it is “pausing additional capital deployment alongside the company.” “It is important to distinguish the company, DP World, from the individual, who is the focus of the current situation,” La Caisse said. “On that point, we have made it clear to the company that we expect it to shed light on the situation and take the necessary actions.” According to local media, La Caisse had been slated to provide over C$100 million toward the development of Quebec’s Contrecoeur terminal, which is estimated to cost about C$1.6 billion and <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/dp-world-to-build-big-ship-container-terminal-in-montreal-6077326">would be operated by DP World</a>. La Caisse said no final decision on financing Contrecoeur has been made. In 2020, DP World and La Caisse acquired the Fraser Surrey terminal at the Port of Vancouver. That was followed by La Caisse investing up to $5 billion in 2022 in DP World’s Jebel Ali port in Dubai, along with a nearby free trade zone and industrial park. Montreal Port Authority (MPA) Chief Executive Julie Gascon said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce that it’s not yet clear whether La Caisse’s pause would affect Contrecoeur’s expected 2030 opening date. The MPA, which is responsible for <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/quebec-provides-new-funding-for-proposed-montreal-terminal-citing-us-trade-tensions-5947783">the separate government-backed financing of dredging and other below-water work at the site</a>, is also waiting to hear from DP World about how it will respond to La Caisse. Gascon said, however, that development of Contrecoeur is a national priority for Prime Minister Mark Carney, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/canada-looks-for-new-container-gateways-for-decoupling-from-us-6122714">who is looking to grow Canada’s non-US international trade</a>. Contrecoeur will be needed to serve the country’s eastern half as the Port of Montreal will likely be at capacity by the next decade. “My concern is that as soon as we start signing more services, then we’re full,” Gascon said. “So, I can’t come in late with Contrecoeur. It’s 2026, and it’s going to be delivered in 2030, so we need to be on time.” <h3>DP World expanded in US </h3>Dubai-based DP World, the fourth-largest ports operator globally by volume, is Canada’s largest terminal company, operating the Fraser Surrey, Centerm and Nanaimo facilities in Vancouver; the Prince Rupert terminal, and the Port of Saint John container terminal. In the US, DP World has a limited presence in non-marine logistics. Last year, it acquired Unique Logistics International, a North Carolina-based contract logistics provider, and bought Michigan-based warehousing and logistics operator Syncreon in 2021. But DP World is also looking to expand in the US, with the company reported to be one of the potential suitors for the Maher terminal at the Port of New York and New Jersey. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>.  </div>

A Quebec-based pension fund has put future investments with DP World on hold until the ports operator clarifies the relationship its chief executive had with deceased sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The pause could slow development of Canada’s next big container terminal. La Caisse, which has C$496 billion in assets under management, said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce Wednesday it is waiting to hear from DP World about what steps it is taking in regards to its Chairman and Chief Executive Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem after messages between him and Epstein were released by US Congressional representatives this week as part of a probe into Epstein’s ties to rich and powerful men across the globe. Some of the messages between Sulayem and Epstein were sexual in nature. La Caisse, which has invested in DP World port projects across the world, said that until it hears from DP World, it is “pausing additional capital deployment alongside the company.” “It is important to distinguish the company, DP World, from the individual, who is the focus of the current situation,” La Caisse said. “On that point, we have made it clear to the company that we expect it to shed light on the situation and take the necessary actions.” According to local media, La Caisse had been slated to provide over C$100 million toward the development of Quebec’s Contrecoeur terminal, which is estimated to cost about C$1.6 billion and would be operated by DP World . La Caisse said no final decision on financing Contrecoeur has been made. In 2020, DP World and La Caisse acquired the Fraser Surrey terminal at the Port of Vancouver. That was followed by La Caisse investing up to $5 billion in 2022 in DP World’s Jebel Ali port in Dubai, along with a nearby free trade zone and industrial park. Montreal Port Authority (MPA) Chief Executive Julie Gascon said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce that it’s not yet clear whether La Caisse’s pause would affect Contrecoeur’s expected 2030 opening date. The MPA, which is responsible for the separate government-backed financing of dredging and other below-water work at the site , is also waiting to hear from DP World about how it will respond to La Caisse. Gascon said, however, that development of Contrecoeur is a national priority for Prime Minister Mark Carney, who is looking to grow Canada’s non-US international trade . Contrecoeur will be needed to serve the country’s eastern half as the Port of Montreal will likely be at capacity by the next decade. “My concern is that as soon as we start signing more services, then we’re full,” Gascon said. “So, I can’t come in late with Contrecoeur. It’s 2026, and it’s going to be delivered in 2030, so we need to be on time.” DP World expanded in US Dubai-based DP World, the fourth-largest ports operator globally by volume, is Canada’s largest terminal company, operating the Fraser Surrey, Centerm and Nanaimo facilities in Vancouver; the Prince Rupert terminal, and the Port of Saint John container terminal. In the US, DP World has a limited presence in non-marine logistics. Last year, it acquired Unique Logistics International, a North Carolina-based contract logistics provider, and bought Michigan-based warehousing and logistics operator Syncreon in 2021. But DP World is also looking to expand in the US, with the company reported to be one of the potential suitors for the Maher terminal at the Port of New York and New Jersey. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com . 

Port News

North American ports

International ports

DP World’s financial partner hits pause over CEO’s ties to Epstein

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Equipped with 12 quay cranes capable of handling ultra-large container ships, the expansion allows the East Container Terminal to handle 3 million TEUs annually at full speed. </div>

Equipped with 12 quay cranes capable of handling ultra-large container ships, the expansion allows the East Container Terminal to handle 3 million TEUs annually at full speed.

<div class="phx-topic">Sri Lanka is moving swiftly to fend off the threat of <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/carriers-revalue-colombo-transshipment-calls-amid-congestion-indian-hub-push-5192152">alternative hub development efforts by India</a> as ocean carriers increasingly seek berthing window flexibility for transshipment calls in a volatile operating environment. The Sri Lanka Ports Authority (SLPA)-operated East Container Terminal (ECT) in Colombo Port has opened a third berth to business, extending its total quay length to 1,300 meters. Equipped with 12 quay cranes capable of handling ultra-large container ships, the expansion allows ECT to handle 3 million TEUs annually at full speed. SLPA in a statement said the upgrades strengthen Colombo’s position as a primary transshipment hub for services linking the Indian subcontinent, the Bay of Bengal and major east-west trade lanes. “The addition of the third berth is expected to ease congestion, distribute vessel calls more efficiently across terminals and reinforce Colombo’s reputation for dependable, high-volume container handling,” SLPA said. The port authority projects a quick three-fold increase in container volumes through the expanded terminal, from 500,000 TEUs in 2025 to 1.5 million TEUs by the end of this year. That capacity expansion complements the recent launch of Phase I operations by the Colombo West Container Terminal (CWCT), a project led by India’s Adani Group. With multiple ongoing expansions, including Phase 2 development at CWCT that has a late-2026 completion timeline, Colombo’s combined capacity is estimated to reach 12 million TEUs over the next year. The port handled 8.3 million TEUs in 2025, up 6% year over year, industry data shows. <h3>Transshipment competition from India </h3>Transshipment trade out of the subcontinent region is no longer a given for Colombo after India opened the Vizhinjam terminal, also managed by Adani, a year ago. Thanks to cargo relay activity by Mediterranean Shipping Co., Vizhinjam's Phase 1 capacity of 1 million TEUs is already saturated, with 2025 volumes hitting 1.2 million TEUs — making it the fastest-growing port in India by capacity utilization. Stronger-than-expected demand has prompted Vizhinjam to fast-track the implementation of projects deemed necessary for longer-term market ambitions. The new hub now aims to put 5.7 million TEUs of capacity in operation by 2028–29, some 17 years ahead of the original development schedule. Contact Bency Mathew at <a href="mailto:bencyvmathew@gmail.com">bencyvmathew@gmail.com</a>. </div>

Sri Lanka is moving swiftly to fend off the threat of alternative hub development efforts by India as ocean carriers increasingly seek berthing window flexibility for transshipment calls in a volatile operating environment. The Sri Lanka Ports Authority (SLPA)-operated East Container Terminal (ECT) in Colombo Port has opened a third berth to business, extending its total quay length to 1,300 meters. Equipped with 12 quay cranes capable of handling ultra-large container ships, the expansion allows ECT to handle 3 million TEUs annually at full speed. SLPA in a statement said the upgrades strengthen Colombo’s position as a primary transshipment hub for services linking the Indian subcontinent, the Bay of Bengal and major east-west trade lanes. “The addition of the third berth is expected to ease congestion, distribute vessel calls more efficiently across terminals and reinforce Colombo’s reputation for dependable, high-volume container handling,” SLPA said. The port authority projects a quick three-fold increase in container volumes through the expanded terminal, from 500,000 TEUs in 2025 to 1.5 million TEUs by the end of this year. That capacity expansion complements the recent launch of Phase I operations by the Colombo West Container Terminal (CWCT), a project led by India’s Adani Group. With multiple ongoing expansions, including Phase 2 development at CWCT that has a late-2026 completion timeline, Colombo’s combined capacity is estimated to reach 12 million TEUs over the next year. The port handled 8.3 million TEUs in 2025, up 6% year over year, industry data shows. Transshipment competition from India Transshipment trade out of the subcontinent region is no longer a given for Colombo after India opened the Vizhinjam terminal, also managed by Adani, a year ago. Thanks to cargo relay activity by Mediterranean Shipping Co., Vizhinjam's Phase 1 capacity of 1 million TEUs is already saturated, with 2025 volumes hitting 1.2 million TEUs — making it the fastest-growing port in India by capacity utilization. Stronger-than-expected demand has prompted Vizhinjam to fast-track the implementation of projects deemed necessary for longer-term market ambitions. The new hub now aims to put 5.7 million TEUs of capacity in operation by 2028–29, some 17 years ahead of the original development schedule. Contact Bency Mathew at bencyvmathew@gmail.com .

Port infrastructure

Marine terminals

Colombo expands box capacity as regional hub competition intensifies 

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The 2025 result follows a familiar trend seen across the full-year financials reported so far by Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and Ocean Network Express as the industry moves into an overcapacity-driven downcycle. </div>

The 2025 result follows a familiar trend seen across the full-year financials reported so far by Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and Ocean Network Express as the industry moves into an overcapacity-driven downcycle.

<div class="phx-topic">The sharply correcting container shipping market pulled down HMM’s 2025 earnings as a drop in average rates across its network offset an increase in volume, the South Korean carrier said Wednesday. It is a familiar trend seen across the full-year 2025 results reported so far by <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/gemini-benefits-face-looming-challenge-from-oversupplied-market-maersk-ceo-6164887">Maersk</a>, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/fourth-quarter-rate-slump-drags-down-hapag-lloyds-2025-financials-6166755">Hapag-Lloyd</a> and <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/frontloading-drags-one-to-a-loss-in-its-fiscal-third-quarter-6161263">Ocean Network Express</a> as the carriers move into an overcapacity-driven downcycle. “A large volume of new container vessel deliveries is expected to result in oversupply, while demand growth remains weak, likely to exacerbate supply-demand imbalances,” HMM said in its results statement. The carrier’s total volume in 2025 reached 3.9 million TEUs, up 3.2% year over year. But the higher throughput was undermined by average revenue per TEU that fell 24.3% to $1,214. The declining rates saw HMM’s total revenue for the year sliding 6.9% to $7.5 billion, while operating profit dropped 58.4% to $220 million and net profit slid 50.3% to $1.3 billion. Although HMM’s fourth-quarter performance was a slight improvement on the third quarter, the weakening market saw key metrics decline significantly year over year. Fourth-quarter revenue of $1.86 billion was a drop of 14.2% year over year, operating profit fell 68.3% to $220 million and net profit of $250 million was down 59.5% compared with the fourth quarter of 2024. Excess capacity in the market will continue to exert downward pressure on rate levels. The global container shipping order book sits near 10.7 million TEUs, or 32% of the current in-service fleet, according to Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Just over 1 million TEUs of capacity via ships above 10,000 TEUs is scheduled to be delivered this year. But 2.3 million TEUs are due for delivery in 2027, with another 3.4 million TEUs due to come online in 2028, equal to all the tonnage received in 2022 and 2023. Despite the growing supply-demand imbalance, analysts expect global container shipping volume growth of 2% to 4% in 2026. Maritime consultant Drewry has even raised the collective financial outlook for carriers this year from a $10 billion loss to a $1 billion profit. <h3>Hub-and-spoke network expansion </h3>In its outlook for the year, HMM announced plans to expand its hub-and-spoke network. Last October, the carrier <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/hmm-inks-25-billion-lng-container-ship-order-6098410">said it would spend $8 billion on eco-friendly vessels</a> by 2030 to boost its operational fleet to 130 container ships totaling 1.55 million TEUs. The investment is part of a $17 billion spending plan that also includes $3 billion on its logistics business with the acquisition of new container terminals and expanding existing facilities by 2030. HMM is part of the Premier Alliance with ONE and Yang Ming that operates or calls at terminals in the hubs of Felixstowe, Rotterdam, Hamburg, Le Havre, Algeciras and Singapore on the Asia-Europe trade; Piraeus, Istanbul, Damietta and Jeddah in the Mediterranean; and Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Kaohsiung, Ningbo, Shanghai, Pusan and Yantian on the trans-Pacific. HMM also said Wednesday it plans to strengthen low-emission services in a bid to increase market share and “improve cost structures through optimized feeder operations.” An area the Premier Alliance carriers will need to significantly improve on is schedule reliability, which was at 26% last year, according to <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/gemini-schedule-reliability-shows-sum-greater-than-its-parts-xeneta-6167423">Xeneta’s “Schedule Reliability Scorecard” for 2025</a>. Partners ONE and Yang Ming both saw individual on-time performance hit close to that mark, but HMM was only at a 15% on-time rate. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The sharply correcting container shipping market pulled down HMM’s 2025 earnings as a drop in average rates across its network offset an increase in volume, the South Korean carrier said Wednesday. It is a familiar trend seen across the full-year 2025 results reported so far by Maersk , Hapag-Lloyd and Ocean Network Express as the carriers move into an overcapacity-driven downcycle. “A large volume of new container vessel deliveries is expected to result in oversupply, while demand growth remains weak, likely to exacerbate supply-demand imbalances,” HMM said in its results statement. The carrier’s total volume in 2025 reached 3.9 million TEUs, up 3.2% year over year. But the higher throughput was undermined by average revenue per TEU that fell 24.3% to $1,214. The declining rates saw HMM’s total revenue for the year sliding 6.9% to $7.5 billion, while operating profit dropped 58.4% to $220 million and net profit slid 50.3% to $1.3 billion. Although HMM’s fourth-quarter performance was a slight improvement on the third quarter, the weakening market saw key metrics decline significantly year over year. Fourth-quarter revenue of $1.86 billion was a drop of 14.2% year over year, operating profit fell 68.3% to $220 million and net profit of $250 million was down 59.5% compared with the fourth quarter of 2024. Excess capacity in the market will continue to exert downward pressure on rate levels. The global container shipping order book sits near 10.7 million TEUs, or 32% of the current in-service fleet, according to Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Just over 1 million TEUs of capacity via ships above 10,000 TEUs is scheduled to be delivered this year. But 2.3 million TEUs are due for delivery in 2027, with another 3.4 million TEUs due to come online in 2028, equal to all the tonnage received in 2022 and 2023. Despite the growing supply-demand imbalance, analysts expect global container shipping volume growth of 2% to 4% in 2026. Maritime consultant Drewry has even raised the collective financial outlook for carriers this year from a $10 billion loss to a $1 billion profit. Hub-and-spoke network expansion In its outlook for the year, HMM announced plans to expand its hub-and-spoke network. Last October, the carrier said it would spend $8 billion on eco-friendly vessels by 2030 to boost its operational fleet to 130 container ships totaling 1.55 million TEUs. The investment is part of a $17 billion spending plan that also includes $3 billion on its logistics business with the acquisition of new container terminals and expanding existing facilities by 2030. HMM is part of the Premier Alliance with ONE and Yang Ming that operates or calls at terminals in the hubs of Felixstowe, Rotterdam, Hamburg, Le Havre, Algeciras and Singapore on the Asia-Europe trade; Piraeus, Istanbul, Damietta and Jeddah in the Mediterranean; and Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Kaohsiung, Ningbo, Shanghai, Pusan and Yantian on the trans-Pacific. HMM also said Wednesday it plans to strengthen low-emission services in a bid to increase market share and “improve cost structures through optimized feeder operations.” An area the Premier Alliance carriers will need to significantly improve on is schedule reliability, which was at 26% last year, according to Xeneta’s “Schedule Reliability Scorecard” for 2025 . Partners ONE and Yang Ming both saw individual on-time performance hit close to that mark, but HMM was only at a 15% on-time rate. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

HMM profitability falls as carrier warns of growing supply-demand imbalance

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Kevin Price, president of the port’s stevedoring services company Gateway Terminals, will join GPA in July as president and then add the CEO’s role in mid-2027.</div>

Kevin Price, president of the port’s stevedoring services company Gateway Terminals, will join GPA in July as president and then add the CEO’s role in mid-2027.

<div class="phx-topic">The Georgia Ports Authority (GPA) on Tuesday unveiled an 18-month succession plan that will see long-time CEO Griff Lynch step down in mid-2027 and replaced by a marine terminals veteran who will initially come aboard as GPA’s president this summer.Kevin Price, president of the Port of Savannah’s stevedoring services company Gateway Terminals, will join GPA in July as president and then add the CEO’s role in mid-2027, GPA said in a statement. Price will lead Savannah as it plans its next growth phase with the opening of a new container terminal in the next decade.“Georgia Ports’ long-term approach with its employees, customers, business partners and infrastructure investments are competitive differentiators,” Price said in the statement. Price has served as president of Gateway Terminals since 2022. Prior to that, he spent four years at stevedore Virginia International Terminals, where he rose to chief operating officer. His prior experience includes time at the former Global Container Terminals facility in New Jersey, and with Maersk and APM Terminals in their Northeast operations. Under Lynch, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/lynch-to-succeed-foltz-as-georgia-ports-chief-5212877">who became chief executive of the port in 2016</a>, Savannah saw total container volumes handled go from 3.6 million TEUs to 5.7 million TEUs in 2025, a 4.5% annual average rate. During that time, the Port of Savannah <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/savannah-expands-with-2030-goal-of-9-million-teu-5222906">dredged its harbor to 47 feet</a> and modernized <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/savannah-project-reflects-growing-premium-for-us-berth-space-5243335">the Garden City Terminal, allowing it to handle three post-Panamax ships at once</a>. The GPA likewise built up rail capacity at Savannah with upgrades to <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-se-ports-prepping-more-growth-amid-continued-west-coast-diversions_20230306.html">the Mason Mega rail terminal that allowed it to handle 1 million container lifts annually</a>, and the <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-southeast-ports-expand-intermodal-rail-reach-5245618">completion of the Appalachian Regional Port in 2018</a> and expected completion this year of <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ns-to-eliminate-midwest-service-from-charleston-savannah-due-to-low-volumes-5200097">the Blue Ridge Connector inland port</a>. Along with finishing the Blue Ridge Connector, the GPA’s near-term plans include opening two new container berths at its Ocean Terminal by 2027. The GPA is also working with the state to increase the air clearance for ships on the Savannah River by raising the Talmadge Bridge. The GPA said in its most recent annual report that it expects container volume to increase just over 45% through 2035. That equates to a 3.7% average annual growth rate that would put Savannah’s volumes at 8.3 million TEUs over the next decade. To handle that growth, the GPA is looking to secure a permit for the construction of the Savannah Container Terminal on Hutchinson Island across the Savannah River from Ocean Terminal and upriver of the Talmadge Bridge. The terminal, which would have berths for three large vessels, is targeted for completion in 2032 at a cost of approximately $4.5 billion. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto: michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The Georgia Ports Authority (GPA) on Tuesday unveiled an 18-month succession plan that will see long-time CEO Griff Lynch step down in mid-2027 and replaced by a marine terminals veteran who will initially come aboard as GPA’s president this summer. Kevin Price, president of the Port of Savannah’s stevedoring services company Gateway Terminals, will join GPA in July as president and then add the CEO’s role in mid-2027, GPA said in a statement. Price will lead Savannah as it plans its next growth phase with the opening of a new container terminal in the next decade. “Georgia Ports’ long-term approach with its employees, customers, business partners and infrastructure investments are competitive differentiators,” Price said in the statement. Price has served as president of Gateway Terminals since 2022. Prior to that, he spent four years at stevedore Virginia International Terminals, where he rose to chief operating officer. His prior experience includes time at the former Global Container Terminals facility in New Jersey, and with Maersk and APM Terminals in their Northeast operations. Under Lynch, who became chief executive of the port in 2016 , Savannah saw total container volumes handled go from 3.6 million TEUs to 5.7 million TEUs in 2025, a 4.5% annual average rate. During that time, the Port of Savannah dredged its harbor to 47 feet and modernized the Garden City Terminal, allowing it to handle three post-Panamax ships at once . The GPA likewise built up rail capacity at Savannah with upgrades to the Mason Mega rail terminal that allowed it to handle 1 million container lifts annually , and the completion of the Appalachian Regional Port in 2018 and expected completion this year of the Blue Ridge Connector inland port . Along with finishing the Blue Ridge Connector, the GPA’s near-term plans include opening two new container berths at its Ocean Terminal by 2027. The GPA is also working with the state to increase the air clearance for ships on the Savannah River by raising the Talmadge Bridge. The GPA said in its most recent annual report that it expects container volume to increase just over 45% through 2035. That equates to a 3.7% average annual growth rate that would put Savannah’s volumes at 8.3 million TEUs over the next decade. To handle that growth, the GPA is looking to secure a permit for the construction of the Savannah Container Terminal on Hutchinson Island across the Savannah River from Ocean Terminal and upriver of the Talmadge Bridge. The terminal, which would have berths for three large vessels, is targeted for completion in 2032 at a cost of approximately $4.5 billion. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

GPA names next CEO as Savannah readies for new growth phase

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The current market situation is favorable for BCOs, and the temptation will be great to drive down base rates because of internal cost pressures, writes John McCauley.</div>

The current market situation is favorable for BCOs, and the temptation will be great to drive down base rates because of internal cost pressures, writes John McCauley.

<div class="phx-topic">At this time of year, many have reflected on 2025 and made resolutions for 2026. I have adjusted this to make no resolutions, but a few predictions that, in most cases, I hope will not materialize. In addition, I want to give some advice to beneficial cargo owners (BCOs), many of whom are in various stages of negotiations for 2026–27 service contracts. Starting with the predictions, let’s consider some supply, capacity, and demand issues. <h3>Capacity </h3>I expect Red Sea transits will resume, but very slowly and primarily for East Med cargo and for the India sub-continent to the East Coast of the US. Asia-Europe transits will only resume if insurance premiums disappear. The Houthis are still present and will be volatile and unreliable, so they remain the wild card for this prediction. At best, Asia-Europe, if Suez passage resumes, would take six months to stabilize. The US port fees for Chinese-built and -owned vessels will be a non-event. However, for carriers, the sword of Damocles is hanging over this one, so don’t expect any major service reshuffles. Sadly, service reliability levels will stay stable at a horrible 60%, notwithstanding the herculean efforts of Gemini to drag the industry up. Most carriers won’t care enough to do something about it. Expect significant trucking and drayage disruption in the US. Bankruptcies will rise as seasonality gets more unpredictable. Driver shortages will get worse. The consequences will be price volatility, both up and down, with significant backlogs adding to detention and demurrage bills. Berthing and landside restrictions will continue to hinder moving larger vessels to north-south trades as few terminals are deep-sea; they are river or bay, at best, and are often hemmed in by towns and cities and tidal-constrained. <h3>Demand </h3>Many BCOs are under high internal pressure to contribute to reductions in overall supply chain costs as margins become thinner through higher input costs (somewhat largely driven by tariffs), downstream price squeezing, and weaker demand. Container freight downward trends will be an obvious target. Keep an eye on US credit card debt and defaults, which will rise significantly by the third quarter at the latest, thus further softening demand. Macro level indicators will prey on demand. US inflation will remain stubbornly near at least 2.5% to 3% while unemployment will remain at about 4.5% as immigration net deficits offset layoffs. Job creation will stagnate. Depending on the GDP trend, expect a high likelihood of stagflation toward the end of the fourth quarter (subject to the reliability of US government data). China will continue manufacturing export expansion and increase its proportion of global trade. <h3>Recommendation </h3>What does this mean for upcoming service contract negotiations? With the expectation of vessel oversupply continuing through the year, BCOs will push to the limit to reduce base rates. They will face several dilemmas, including how to get rid of unmerited and unjustifiable surcharges and which carriers to choose from in alliances and vessel-sharing agreements. Overall, the market situation is favorable for BCOs. The temptation to drive down base rates will be great because of internal cost pressures and/or wanting to make up for some years of carrier supply strength. This should be tempered with a caveat that many BCOs have been burnt in the past for being too empathetic to carriers’ financial difficulties. If I were in the shoes of a medium-size BCO of 30,000 TEUs and above, I would select a mix that would aim for base rates around the Xeneta/NYSHEX forecast average index levels, even if offered lower rates than those levels. It is important to keep in with Mediterranean Shipping Co. even if you don’t use them today. I would use index-linked contracts today and continue to do so with a maximum of 50% to leave yourself some volume for fixed rates and some spot prices. Of that remaining volume, I would leave about 25% for spot as the downside risk is still relatively low. Finally, the market situation should allow for BCOs to get into their contracts the exclusion of any non-explainable (by the carrier) and justifiable (judged and accepted by the BCO) surcharges. John McCauley, formerly a vice president of transportation and logistics at Cargill, now consults for shippers. Contact him at <a href="mailto:john-mccauley1@outlook.com">john-mccauley1@outlook.com</a>.</div>

At this time of year, many have reflected on 2025 and made resolutions for 2026. I have adjusted this to make no resolutions, but a few predictions that, in most cases, I hope will not materialize. In addition, I want to give some advice to beneficial cargo owners (BCOs), many of whom are in various stages of negotiations for 2026–27 service contracts. Starting with the predictions, let’s consider some supply, capacity, and demand issues. Capacity I expect Red Sea transits will resume, but very slowly and primarily for East Med cargo and for the India sub-continent to the East Coast of the US. Asia-Europe transits will only resume if insurance premiums disappear. The Houthis are still present and will be volatile and unreliable, so they remain the wild card for this prediction. At best, Asia-Europe, if Suez passage resumes, would take six months to stabilize. The US port fees for Chinese-built and -owned vessels will be a non-event. However, for carriers, the sword of Damocles is hanging over this one, so don’t expect any major service reshuffles. Sadly, service reliability levels will stay stable at a horrible 60%, notwithstanding the herculean efforts of Gemini to drag the industry up. Most carriers won’t care enough to do something about it. Expect significant trucking and drayage disruption in the US. Bankruptcies will rise as seasonality gets more unpredictable. Driver shortages will get worse. The consequences will be price volatility, both up and down, with significant backlogs adding to detention and demurrage bills. Berthing and landside restrictions will continue to hinder moving larger vessels to north-south trades as few terminals are deep-sea; they are river or bay, at best, and are often hemmed in by towns and cities and tidal-constrained. Demand Many BCOs are under high internal pressure to contribute to reductions in overall supply chain costs as margins become thinner through higher input costs (somewhat largely driven by tariffs), downstream price squeezing, and weaker demand. Container freight downward trends will be an obvious target. Keep an eye on US credit card debt and defaults, which will rise significantly by the third quarter at the latest, thus further softening demand. Macro level indicators will prey on demand. US inflation will remain stubbornly near at least 2.5% to 3% while unemployment will remain at about 4.5% as immigration net deficits offset layoffs. Job creation will stagnate. Depending on the GDP trend, expect a high likelihood of stagflation toward the end of the fourth quarter (subject to the reliability of US government data). China will continue manufacturing export expansion and increase its proportion of global trade. Recommendation What does this mean for upcoming service contract negotiations? With the expectation of vessel oversupply continuing through the year, BCOs will push to the limit to reduce base rates. They will face several dilemmas, including how to get rid of unmerited and unjustifiable surcharges and which carriers to choose from in alliances and vessel-sharing agreements. Overall, the market situation is favorable for BCOs. The temptation to drive down base rates will be great because of internal cost pressures and/or wanting to make up for some years of carrier supply strength. This should be tempered with a caveat that many BCOs have been burnt in the past for being too empathetic to carriers’ financial difficulties. If I were in the shoes of a medium-size BCO of 30,000 TEUs and above, I would select a mix that would aim for base rates around the Xeneta/NYSHEX forecast average index levels, even if offered lower rates than those levels. It is important to keep in with Mediterranean Shipping Co. even if you don’t use them today. I would use index-linked contracts today and continue to do so with a maximum of 50% to leave yourself some volume for fixed rates and some spot prices. Of that remaining volume, I would leave about 25% for spot as the downside risk is still relatively low. Finally, the market situation should allow for BCOs to get into their contracts the exclusion of any non-explainable (by the carrier) and justifiable (judged and accepted by the BCO) surcharges. John McCauley, formerly a vice president of transportation and logistics at Cargill, now consults for shippers. Contact him at john-mccauley1@outlook.com .

Trans-Pacific

A few market predictions and some advice for BCOs as contract season heats up

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">There are a lot of theories explaining the current freight recession, but there is no disputing that decreased demand, cutthroat competition, and plummeting rates have occurred simultaneously with inflationary cost components, writes Ted Prince.</div>

There are a lot of theories explaining the current freight recession, but there is no disputing that decreased demand, cutthroat competition, and plummeting rates have occurred simultaneously with inflationary cost components, writes Ted Prince.

<div class="phx-topic">In 1948, Gerald Hern, sports editor of the Boston Post, composed a brief poem describing the Boston Braves’ pitching en route to the 1948 National League pennant: First we’ll use Spahn then we’ll use Sain Then an off day, followed by rain Back will come Spahn, followed by Sain And followed, we hope, by two days of rain Warren Spahn and Johnny Sain were responsible for 39 of the Braves’ 91 victories that year. However, it was common to have a one-two punch at the top of a team’s pitching rotation. Intermodal has a similar duality: international and domestic — primarily dry 40- and 53-foot containers, respectively. While intermodal has a plethora of markets and equipment, the two segments have been carrying the industry for decades to constant new heights. They are also closely correlated in that a great deal of the domestic market is import cargo that was transloaded on the West Coast for movement inland. Hern’s work comes to mind when thinking about intermodal’s performance in 2025 and its prospects for 2026. Unlike the hoped-for two days of good rain, the industry has endured four years of painful rain since the halcyon volumes of 2021, the “good old days” of the COVID-19 pandemic. There are a lot of theories explaining the current freight “recession,” but there is no disputing that decreased demand, cutthroat competition, and plummeting rates have occurred simultaneously with inflationary cost components. As a result, intermodal has frequently found itself as a surface freight alternative that is slower and more expensive than trucking. And while there were some green shoots in 2024, the industry has been hoping for a second-half recovery — that has failed to materialize — in each of the past three years. The same seems true for 2026. <h3>Supply and demand drivers </h3>As we look forward, we need to consider supply and demand drivers. “Affordability” has taken the place of prominence in our political lexicon. As the costs of food and housing rise, discretionary income for other consumer products has shriveled and reduced demand. The same goes for increasing credit card, car, and student loan debt. Regardless of mortgage rates, there are long-term limitations on housing starts. This can further reduce consumer demand because so many purchases — e.g., furniture, home, electronics, etc. — are often associated with new homes. And although seven-year car loans have become more common, I don’t believe 50-year home mortgages will have the same penetration. With demand problematic, intermodal success will probably rely on supply changes. Many contend that the demand during the early days of COVID-19 created excess capacity that the truck market is still trying to absorb. However, it is unclear whether there was really an increase in overall capacity, or just realignment as many truckers decided to go out on their own. Regardless, there were a number of carriers that acquired capacity at historically high prices and must keep operating to just make their payments. The normal culling of unprofitable capacity was precluded by this inability to exit the market, ensuring a never-ending supply of zombie truckers. This capacity is getting older and more expensive to operate. Nevertheless, there is a feeling (or hope?) that 2026 will finally see marginal carriers leave the market and rate stability restored. <h3>Enhanced regulatory oversight </h3>The environmental green benefits of intermodal are not a priority for the current administration, so economic green will be paramount. Most likely that would come from increased regulatory oversight. Enhanced enforcement on non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses is reducing driver supply. And there is still the unknown of hacked electronic logging devices allowing for illegal hours of service. What is unclear is whether these initiatives will impact truckload and drayage carriers equally, or whether one segment will suffer disproportionate opprobrium. If it is the former, intermodal will be advantaged; however, if it is the latter, maybe not. The former would be a rising tide that would raise all intermodal ships, whereas the latter could see the further ascendance of bimodal operations with integrated drayage overseen by robust safety regimens. In an attempt to increase demand, we can expect major players to assume prominent roles. Railroads and bimodals will seek to deploy equipment that has been stored for years. Ocean carriers will continue to consider their inland options. Finally, ports may become more involved as they explore inland options to attract more discretionary cargo. There are no historical comparisons for the last five years. It is unclear when the market will turn, but when it does, the recovery will follow Ernest Hemingway’s description: “Gradually, then suddenly.” We can then hope for the sun also to rise on intermodal. Ted Prince is founder and CEO of Tri-Cities Intermodal LLC. Contact him at <a href="mailto:ted@tricitiesintermodal.com">ted@tricitiesintermodal.com</a>.</div>

In 1948, Gerald Hern, sports editor of the Boston Post, composed a brief poem describing the Boston Braves’ pitching en route to the 1948 National League pennant: First we’ll use Spahn then we’ll use Sain Then an off day, followed by rain Back will come Spahn, followed by Sain And followed, we hope, by two days of rain Warren Spahn and Johnny Sain were responsible for 39 of the Braves’ 91 victories that year. However, it was common to have a one-two punch at the top of a team’s pitching rotation. Intermodal has a similar duality: international and domestic — primarily dry 40- and 53-foot containers, respectively. While intermodal has a plethora of markets and equipment, the two segments have been carrying the industry for decades to constant new heights. They are also closely correlated in that a great deal of the domestic market is import cargo that was transloaded on the West Coast for movement inland. Hern’s work comes to mind when thinking about intermodal’s performance in 2025 and its prospects for 2026. Unlike the hoped-for two days of good rain, the industry has endured four years of painful rain since the halcyon volumes of 2021, the “good old days” of the COVID-19 pandemic. There are a lot of theories explaining the current freight “recession,” but there is no disputing that decreased demand, cutthroat competition, and plummeting rates have occurred simultaneously with inflationary cost components. As a result, intermodal has frequently found itself as a surface freight alternative that is slower and more expensive than trucking. And while there were some green shoots in 2024, the industry has been hoping for a second-half recovery — that has failed to materialize — in each of the past three years. The same seems true for 2026. Supply and demand drivers As we look forward, we need to consider supply and demand drivers. “Affordability” has taken the place of prominence in our political lexicon. As the costs of food and housing rise, discretionary income for other consumer products has shriveled and reduced demand. The same goes for increasing credit card, car, and student loan debt. Regardless of mortgage rates, there are long-term limitations on housing starts. This can further reduce consumer demand because so many purchases — e.g., furniture, home, electronics, etc. — are often associated with new homes. And although seven-year car loans have become more common, I don’t believe 50-year home mortgages will have the same penetration. With demand problematic, intermodal success will probably rely on supply changes. Many contend that the demand during the early days of COVID-19 created excess capacity that the truck market is still trying to absorb. However, it is unclear whether there was really an increase in overall capacity, or just realignment as many truckers decided to go out on their own. Regardless, there were a number of carriers that acquired capacity at historically high prices and must keep operating to just make their payments. The normal culling of unprofitable capacity was precluded by this inability to exit the market, ensuring a never-ending supply of zombie truckers. This capacity is getting older and more expensive to operate. Nevertheless, there is a feeling (or hope?) that 2026 will finally see marginal carriers leave the market and rate stability restored. Enhanced regulatory oversight The environmental green benefits of intermodal are not a priority for the current administration, so economic green will be paramount. Most likely that would come from increased regulatory oversight. Enhanced enforcement on non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses is reducing driver supply. And there is still the unknown of hacked electronic logging devices allowing for illegal hours of service. What is unclear is whether these initiatives will impact truckload and drayage carriers equally, or whether one segment will suffer disproportionate opprobrium. If it is the former, intermodal will be advantaged; however, if it is the latter, maybe not. The former would be a rising tide that would raise all intermodal ships, whereas the latter could see the further ascendance of bimodal operations with integrated drayage overseen by robust safety regimens. In an attempt to increase demand, we can expect major players to assume prominent roles. Railroads and bimodals will seek to deploy equipment that has been stored for years. Ocean carriers will continue to consider their inland options. Finally, ports may become more involved as they explore inland options to attract more discretionary cargo. There are no historical comparisons for the last five years. It is unclear when the market will turn, but when it does, the recovery will follow Ernest Hemingway’s description: “Gradually, then suddenly.” We can then hope for the sun also to rise on intermodal. Ted Prince is founder and CEO of Tri-Cities Intermodal LLC. Contact him at ted@tricitiesintermodal.com .

North-American rail

Supply chain

Pace of freight market recovery a matter of ‘gradually, then suddenly’

Shanghai to Santos

{dateX.formatDate('MMM dd, yyyy')}: ${valueY} 
Y-o-Y: {percet_year_Santos.formatNumber("##.#%")}

The Shanghai Shipping Exchange’s (SSE) Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reflects spot rates and associated seaborne charges for containerized exports from Shanghai. The SCFI includes indices of freight rates in 13 individual shipping routes and a composite index, using Oct. 16, 2009, as the base period (Oct. 16, 2009 = 1,000). [SSE](https://en.sse.net.cn/indices/scfinew.jsp)

Shanghai to Santos container spot rates (SSE)

Shanghai to Santos Container Spot Rates (SCFI-Weekly) Gateway

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The carrier reported a steep drop in profitability as declining rates combined with higher costs of rerouting ships around southern Africa and startup expenses for the Gemini network.</div>

The carrier reported a steep drop in profitability as declining rates combined with higher costs of rerouting ships around southern Africa and startup expenses for the Gemini network.

<div class="phx-topic">A solid increase in Hapag-Lloyd’s Gemini Cooperation-driven volume last year and cost savings across the new network were not enough to offset a sharply correcting market in 2025, the carrier said Monday. Hapag-Lloyd reported a steep drop in profitability for the year as declining rates combined with the higher costs of rerouting ships around southern Africa and startup expenses for the Gemini network to weigh on its 2025 results. Hapag-Lloyd launched the Gemini network with partner Maersk in February 2025. “Robust growth in global trade and the new Gemini network led to an 8% increase in the transport volume to 13.5 million TEUs,” Hapag-Lloyd said in a statement on its preliminary 2025 results. The carrier provided no after-tax figures; its full annual report with a 2026 outlook will be unveiled March 26. Even as demand rose, it was mirrored by a drop in average rates that were down 8% year over year at $1,376 per TEU. That led to full-year revenue falling 1.9% to $21.1 billion and earnings before interest, taxes, amortization and depreciation (EBITDA) declining 28% to $3.6 billion. While earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) were down 60% at $1.1 billion, they was at the higher end of the profitability forecast Hapag-Lloyd gave the market following the announcement of its nine-month results last November. <h3>Gemini savings kicking in </h3>The results showed that much of the 2025 financial damage occurred in the fourth quarter, similar to <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/gemini-benefits-face-looming-challenge-from-oversupplied-market-maersk-ceo-6164887">the full-year earnings of Maersk</a> and <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/frontloading-drags-one-to-a-loss-in-its-fiscal-third-quarter-6161263">the fiscal third-quarter results of Ocean Network Express</a>. Hapag-Lloyd’s fourth-quarter volume was up 6% year over year, but revenue fell 7.4% to $5 billion, EBITDA dropped 42% to $800 million and EBIT for the quarter was down 75% at $200 million. “On the other hand, Gemini-related cost savings started kicking in during the second half of 2025 and will be fully realized in 2026,” the carrier said. Hapag-Lloyd’s savings to be generated by Gemini are expected to be between $350 million and $400 million, which is approximately 40% of a total $1 billion in savings the carrier expects to have in place by the end of this year as part of an aggressive cost-savings program across its overall network. Hapag-Lloyd did not provide financials for its Hanseatic Global Terminals division, but it is a key part of the Gemini network. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd control most of their terminal network, which gives the carriers greater berth access and handling productivity than common user facilities, especially in the congested hubs of Europe. That access saw Maersk reporting a record performance in its terminals division in 2025. Maritime consultant Drewry has upgraded its financial year 2025 profit forecast from $20 billion to $32 billion following “better than expected” third-quarter results from carriers and raised the outlook for 2026 from a $10 billion loss to a $1 billion profit. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/frontloading-drags-one-to-a-loss-in-its-fiscal-third-quarter-6161263">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

A solid increase in Hapag-Lloyd’s Gemini Cooperation-driven volume last year and cost savings across the new network were not enough to offset a sharply correcting market in 2025, the carrier said Monday. Hapag-Lloyd reported a steep drop in profitability for the year as declining rates combined with the higher costs of rerouting ships around southern Africa and startup expenses for the Gemini network to weigh on its 2025 results. Hapag-Lloyd launched the Gemini network with partner Maersk in February 2025. “Robust growth in global trade and the new Gemini network led to an 8% increase in the transport volume to 13.5 million TEUs,” Hapag-Lloyd said in a statement on its preliminary 2025 results. The carrier provided no after-tax figures; its full annual report with a 2026 outlook will be unveiled March 26. Even as demand rose, it was mirrored by a drop in average rates that were down 8% year over year at $1,376 per TEU. That led to full-year revenue falling 1.9% to $21.1 billion and earnings before interest, taxes, amortization and depreciation (EBITDA) declining 28% to $3.6 billion. While earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) were down 60% at $1.1 billion, they was at the higher end of the profitability forecast Hapag-Lloyd gave the market following the announcement of its nine-month results last November. Gemini savings kicking in The results showed that much of the 2025 financial damage occurred in the fourth quarter, similar to the full-year earnings of Maersk and the fiscal third-quarter results of Ocean Network Express . Hapag-Lloyd’s fourth-quarter volume was up 6% year over year, but revenue fell 7.4% to $5 billion, EBITDA dropped 42% to $800 million and EBIT for the quarter was down 75% at $200 million. “On the other hand, Gemini-related cost savings started kicking in during the second half of 2025 and will be fully realized in 2026,” the carrier said. Hapag-Lloyd’s savings to be generated by Gemini are expected to be between $350 million and $400 million, which is approximately 40% of a total $1 billion in savings the carrier expects to have in place by the end of this year as part of an aggressive cost-savings program across its overall network. Hapag-Lloyd did not provide financials for its Hanseatic Global Terminals division, but it is a key part of the Gemini network. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd control most of their terminal network, which gives the carriers greater berth access and handling productivity than common user facilities, especially in the congested hubs of Europe. That access saw Maersk reporting a record performance in its terminals division in 2025. Maritime consultant Drewry has upgraded its financial year 2025 profit forecast from $20 billion to $32 billion following “better than expected” third-quarter results from carriers and raised the outlook for 2026 from a $10 billion loss to a $1 billion profit. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Fourth-quarter rate slump drags down Hapag-Lloyd’s 2025 financials

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The likely sale this year of the Port of New York and New Jersey’s largest marine terminal portends possible changes to how it will be operated in the long run. </div>

The likely sale this year of the Port of New York and New Jersey’s largest marine terminal portends possible changes to how it will be operated in the long run.

<div class="phx-topic">The potential sale of Maher Terminal at the Port of New York and New Jersey will require a buyer to navigate stricter lease terms, billions in new costs, and decisions on how to grow capacity and service its customers, all portending further changes in container handling at the port. A source told the Journal of Commerce that marine terminal operators including DP World, PSA International, SSA Marine, and Terminal Investment Limited have inquired about a potential acquisition of Maher from private equity firm Macquarie Infrastructure Partners. Maher, the largest container terminal at NY-NJ, could fetch $3 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal. The sale of Maher, which could be announced later this year, comes after the Macquarie fund that owns Maher negotiated <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/macquarie-seals-deal-for-new-maher-lease-at-nynj-through-2063-6137751">a new 33-year lease with the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey that starts in 2030</a>. The potential buyers have also contacted the Port Authority, the source said, because the agency would have to sign off on any deal. The new lease means Maher’s buyer faces a variable monthly rent that is based solely on container volume, the source said, rather than the previous lease’s largely fixed-cost base rent. In addition, the new operator will have to share with the Port Authority a greater portion of its “excess revenue,” which generally comes from the demurrage it charges on containers. Outside of the direct rental costs, Maher’s buyer could face at least $3 billion in capital and maintenance costs under the new lease, the source said. <h3>Capacity upgrades</h3>A big chunk of that will be the cost of berth maintenance and repairs that the Port Authority has begun shifting over to tenants under the new leases. Maher, with four berths capable of handling super-post-Panamax ships, faces an estimated $2 billion in such repairs.The new lease also requires Maher to add “demand-induced” capacity as part of the port’s overall plan to double capacity by 2050, Port Director Beth Rooney said after the lease’s December signing. Maher, which can currently handle just over 3 million TEUs, could double its capacity through densification, she said. Densification, though, will require the buyer to rethink signature features of the terminal that have made it preferred among ocean carriers, shippers and motor carriers. The densification process could cost another $1 billion. Maher currently uses a fleet of over 200 straddle carriers to sort containers and bring them to trucks waiting at a parking spot, what the facility bills as a “concierge service,” according to shippers. Maher has won multiple awards from local motor carriers and ocean carriers for its service levels. Densifying the facility would mean gradually rolling out a smaller fleet of gantry cranes, either on rubber tires or rail mounted, for handling higher and wider container stacks. The process would require that yard space within Maher be closed on a rotating basis while the underlying concrete is reinforced and container stacks are remade for the larger machines. It’s not clear how the switch to gantry crane operations will affect service times for trucks, although it would likely mean fewer loading spaces. An equipment change at the terminal will also trigger a clause in the contract with the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) over implementing new technology, requiring negotiations with the union. Along with larger yard equipment, a new buyer for Maher will face decisions on how it optimizes space. Maher has a massive truck gate with some 30 inbound lanes and 20 outbound lanes. The large gate complex allows Maher to handle trucks without requiring appointments, a free-flow operation that allows truckers to quickly enter the facility. But the gate complex also occupies about a quarter of its land, making it a potential target for reclamation to container yard space. A smaller gate, though, might require Maher to rethink the free-flow model. Maher will also have to share more of its daily operational data under the new lease terms, which require the terminal to provide data about key metrics and other measures. The data sharing will “enable the Port Authority and its terminal operators to better collaborate on port efficiency initiatives,” the agency said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce.Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto: michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The potential sale of Maher Terminal at the Port of New York and New Jersey will require a buyer to navigate stricter lease terms, billions in new costs, and decisions on how to grow capacity and service its customers, all portending further changes in container handling at the port. A source told the Journal of Commerce that marine terminal operators including DP World, PSA International, SSA Marine, and Terminal Investment Limited have inquired about a potential acquisition of Maher from private equity firm Macquarie Infrastructure Partners. Maher, the largest container terminal at NY-NJ, could fetch $3 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal. The sale of Maher, which could be announced later this year, comes after the Macquarie fund that owns Maher negotiated a new 33-year lease with the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey that starts in 2030 . The potential buyers have also contacted the Port Authority, the source said, because the agency would have to sign off on any deal. The new lease means Maher’s buyer faces a variable monthly rent that is based solely on container volume, the source said, rather than the previous lease’s largely fixed-cost base rent. In addition, the new operator will have to share with the Port Authority a greater portion of its “excess revenue,” which generally comes from the demurrage it charges on containers. Outside of the direct rental costs, Maher’s buyer could face at least $3 billion in capital and maintenance costs under the new lease, the source said. Capacity upgrades A big chunk of that will be the cost of berth maintenance and repairs that the Port Authority has begun shifting over to tenants under the new leases. Maher, with four berths capable of handling super-post-Panamax ships, faces an estimated $2 billion in such repairs. The new lease also requires Maher to add “demand-induced” capacity as part of the port’s overall plan to double capacity by 2050, Port Director Beth Rooney said after the lease’s December signing. Maher, which can currently handle just over 3 million TEUs, could double its capacity through densification, she said. Densification, though, will require the buyer to rethink signature features of the terminal that have made it preferred among ocean carriers, shippers and motor carriers. The densification process could cost another $1 billion. Maher currently uses a fleet of over 200 straddle carriers to sort containers and bring them to trucks waiting at a parking spot, what the facility bills as a “concierge service,” according to shippers. Maher has won multiple awards from local motor carriers and ocean carriers for its service levels. Densifying the facility would mean gradually rolling out a smaller fleet of gantry cranes, either on rubber tires or rail mounted, for handling higher and wider container stacks. The process would require that yard space within Maher be closed on a rotating basis while the underlying concrete is reinforced and container stacks are remade for the larger machines. It’s not clear how the switch to gantry crane operations will affect service times for trucks, although it would likely mean fewer loading spaces. An equipment change at the terminal will also trigger a clause in the contract with the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) over implementing new technology, requiring negotiations with the union. Along with larger yard equipment, a new buyer for Maher will face decisions on how it optimizes space. Maher has a massive truck gate with some 30 inbound lanes and 20 outbound lanes. The large gate complex allows Maher to handle trucks without requiring appointments, a free-flow operation that allows truckers to quickly enter the facility. But the gate complex also occupies about a quarter of its land, making it a potential target for reclamation to container yard space. A smaller gate, though, might require Maher to rethink the free-flow model. Maher will also have to share more of its daily operational data under the new lease terms, which require the terminal to provide data about key metrics and other measures. The data sharing will “enable the Port Authority and its terminal operators to better collaborate on port efficiency initiatives,” the agency said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce.Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Longshore labor

Maher’s next buyer faces billions in upgrades, decisions on capacity

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">While linehaul performance has largely returned to normal for US Class I railroads, delays and bottlenecks triggered by the severe winter storm two weeks ago have now moved downstream to terminals in Chicago, Cincinnati and Memphis.</div>

While linehaul performance has largely returned to normal for US Class I railroads, delays and bottlenecks triggered by the severe winter storm two weeks ago have now moved downstream to terminals in Chicago, Cincinnati and Memphis.

<div class="phx-topic">Rail terminals at key inland hubs have become congested with containers two weeks after a severe winter storm slammed a large portion of the US, slowing both the handoff of import boxes to trucks and the start of export moves. While port-to-rail service and linehaul performance have largely returned to normal for US Class I railroads, the delays and bottlenecks triggered by the storm have now moved downstream to terminals in Chicago, Cincinnati and Memphis. “We’ve had drivers spending up to five hours just in line, consistently missing deliveries and having containers going into [demurrage],” said one Chicago-based trucker who asked not to be identified. “The customers refuse to pay and are getting frustrated. Drivers are getting frustrated.” Truckers say the terminal delays are eroding productivity and adding costs, particularly as railroads assess fees during extended container dwell times. For drayage providers, profitability depends on delivering cargo, making hours-long delays inside terminals costly. Frustration has been directed at BNSF Railway, Norfolk Southern Railway (NS) and Union Pacific Railroad (UP). Slowdowns are common during frigid temperatures because heavy equipment such as overhead cranes and hostler vehicles can malfunction. Outdoor terminal crews also must battle the harsh conditions. In Memphis, drivers have raised concerns after UP began stacking ocean containers inside the terminal on Feb. 4 because of a chassis shortage, according to a UP advisory circulated to drivers and shared with the Journal of Commerce. A UP spokesperson declined to confirm the advisory’s authenticity, although two independent sources provided copies to the Journal of Commerce. “Union Pacific does not own chassis and works closely with customers and their carriers to ensure availability,” the UP spokesperson said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce. “Following the unprecedented storm, Union Pacific recovered exceptionally well and maintained a fluid rail network.” Truckers object to UP’s decision, prompted by the post-storm conditions, to charge a fee to lift containers out of stacks. The so-called “flip fee” traditionally applies when transferring a container from a perfectly usable pool chassis to a trucker’s privately owned chassis. Other North American Class I railroads do not assess a fee in similar circumstances, and major US ports similarly do not charge simply to lift a container from a stack onto a truck. Cargo owners are not covering the cost, so UP’s decision is a financial hit for truckers, provoking angry e-mails from truckers that were shared with the Journal of Commerce. Data from technology provider E-Dray shows that the average time to unload an ocean container and make it available at UP’s Memphis terminal has increased from less than one (0.7) day before the storm to 2.9 days as of this week. <h3>Frustrations with BNSF, Norfolk Southern </h3>Drivers report similar frustrations at BNSF’s Memphis and Logistics Park Chicago terminals, where E-Dray data shows container availability times have doubled from approximately one day to two days in both locations. The delays are not driven by chassis shortages, but by extended waits for crane availability. “Turn times at both facilities are about 30%, or 20 minutes longer,” Jon Gabriel, BNSF’s group vice president of consumer products, told the Journal of Commerce. “We expect that turn times [will] return back to normal at both facilities next week, likely Memphis a little sooner.” In Chicago, drivers have also voiced concerns about Norfolk Southern terminals, although E-Dray data shows no material deterioration in terminal efficiency metrics there. Norfolk Southern, however, acknowledged congestion in Cincinnati. “We are taking proactive steps to improve the driver experience, reduce dwell, and maintain service reliability,” NS wrote in a Feb. 3 advisory posted online. “Our focus is on restoring smooth terminal flow and improving the driver experience as quickly as possible.” Congestion also remains elevated in Louisville, where a disruption that began more than a month ago persists. <h3>Linehaul performance rebounds </h3>Moving containers into major inland hubs is no longer an issue for the railroads. BNSF’s transit times between Floyd, Mississippi, and Plaines, Illinois, nearly doubled to 19 hours in the immediate aftermath of the storm, but had fallen back to about 10 hours as of Feb. 5, according to rail visibility provider RailState. UP’s transit times between Edwardsville, Kansas, and Mazonia, Illinois, spiked to nearly 80 hours after the storm before declining to approximately 35 hours this week, RailState data showed. NS’ transit times between Mishawaka, Indiana, and East Palestine, Ohio, jumped about 50% during the storm but have since returned to historical norms. (The RailState data used in this report was the 75th percentile of transit times, as calculated by RailState, to better capture “outlier” instances created by the storm.) Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Rail terminals at key inland hubs have become congested with containers two weeks after a severe winter storm slammed a large portion of the US, slowing both the handoff of import boxes to trucks and the start of export moves. While port-to-rail service and linehaul performance have largely returned to normal for US Class I railroads, the delays and bottlenecks triggered by the storm have now moved downstream to terminals in Chicago, Cincinnati and Memphis. “We’ve had drivers spending up to five hours just in line, consistently missing deliveries and having containers going into [demurrage],” said one Chicago-based trucker who asked not to be identified. “The customers refuse to pay and are getting frustrated. Drivers are getting frustrated.” Truckers say the terminal delays are eroding productivity and adding costs, particularly as railroads assess fees during extended container dwell times. For drayage providers, profitability depends on delivering cargo, making hours-long delays inside terminals costly. Frustration has been directed at BNSF Railway, Norfolk Southern Railway (NS) and Union Pacific Railroad (UP). Slowdowns are common during frigid temperatures because heavy equipment such as overhead cranes and hostler vehicles can malfunction. Outdoor terminal crews also must battle the harsh conditions. In Memphis, drivers have raised concerns after UP began stacking ocean containers inside the terminal on Feb. 4 because of a chassis shortage, according to a UP advisory circulated to drivers and shared with the Journal of Commerce. A UP spokesperson declined to confirm the advisory’s authenticity, although two independent sources provided copies to the Journal of Commerce. “Union Pacific does not own chassis and works closely with customers and their carriers to ensure availability,” the UP spokesperson said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce. “Following the unprecedented storm, Union Pacific recovered exceptionally well and maintained a fluid rail network.” Truckers object to UP’s decision, prompted by the post-storm conditions, to charge a fee to lift containers out of stacks. The so-called “flip fee” traditionally applies when transferring a container from a perfectly usable pool chassis to a trucker’s privately owned chassis. Other North American Class I railroads do not assess a fee in similar circumstances, and major US ports similarly do not charge simply to lift a container from a stack onto a truck. Cargo owners are not covering the cost, so UP’s decision is a financial hit for truckers, provoking angry e-mails from truckers that were shared with the Journal of Commerce. Data from technology provider E-Dray shows that the average time to unload an ocean container and make it available at UP’s Memphis terminal has increased from less than one (0.7) day before the storm to 2.9 days as of this week. Frustrations with BNSF, Norfolk Southern Drivers report similar frustrations at BNSF’s Memphis and Logistics Park Chicago terminals, where E-Dray data shows container availability times have doubled from approximately one day to two days in both locations. The delays are not driven by chassis shortages, but by extended waits for crane availability. “Turn times at both facilities are about 30%, or 20 minutes longer,” Jon Gabriel, BNSF’s group vice president of consumer products, told the Journal of Commerce. “We expect that turn times [will] return back to normal at both facilities next week, likely Memphis a little sooner.” In Chicago, drivers have also voiced concerns about Norfolk Southern terminals, although E-Dray data shows no material deterioration in terminal efficiency metrics there. Norfolk Southern, however, acknowledged congestion in Cincinnati. “We are taking proactive steps to improve the driver experience, reduce dwell, and maintain service reliability,” NS wrote in a Feb. 3 advisory posted online. “Our focus is on restoring smooth terminal flow and improving the driver experience as quickly as possible.” Congestion also remains elevated in Louisville, where a disruption that began more than a month ago persists. Linehaul performance rebounds Moving containers into major inland hubs is no longer an issue for the railroads. BNSF’s transit times between Floyd, Mississippi, and Plaines, Illinois, nearly doubled to 19 hours in the immediate aftermath of the storm, but had fallen back to about 10 hours as of Feb. 5, according to rail visibility provider RailState. UP’s transit times between Edwardsville, Kansas, and Mazonia, Illinois, spiked to nearly 80 hours after the storm before declining to approximately 35 hours this week, RailState data showed. NS’ transit times between Mishawaka, Indiana, and East Palestine, Ohio, jumped about 50% during the storm but have since returned to historical norms. (The RailState data used in this report was the 75th percentile of transit times, as calculated by RailState, to better capture “outlier” instances created by the storm.) Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Key inland rail terminals battle post-storm congestion, driver complaints

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<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Marine terminals are using the new longshore contract to tackle one of the port’s recurring problems, with the union’s support, as they look to boost efficiency at the biggest port along the US East Coast. </div>

Marine terminals are using the new longshore contract to tackle one of the port’s recurring problems, with the union’s support, as they look to boost efficiency at the biggest port along the US East Coast.

<div class="phx-topic">Marine terminals at the Port of New York and New Jersey have made the first — albeit very small — cuts of chronically absent employees under terms outlined in the new local longshore contract, one of the main concessions employers won under the deal to boost productivity at the port. John Nardi, president of the Shipping Association of New York and New Jersey, which represents maritime employers at the port, said this week five local longshore workers were fired in January under the new unexcused absentee policy his group negotiated in the local contract with the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA). The cuts are miniscule in relation to the port’s 4,400 ILA workers. But Nardi said the new policy’s message has had an impact by cutting absenteeism at the port in half since the new contract, something that employers have “fought for years to improve.” “We worked very closely with the ILA to fix some longstanding challenges,” Nardi said. “We had the full support of the ILA at the highest level. We’re not fooling around on this.” The ILA did not respond to a request for comment from the Journal of Commerce. The local contract was officially ratified last year as part of the master contract between the ILA and the United States Maritime Alliance, with the union securing a 62% increase in its top wage tier through 2030. The first year of that wage increase, along with a higher entry-level wage and manning changes, have resulted in a nearly 20% increase in labor costs for marine terminals since March 2025, according to a source familiar with the deal’s economics. <h3>Monday popular for absenteeism </h3>The master contract required all East and Gulf coast ports to draw up absentee policies. But absenteeism is a particular problem for the NY-NJ port relative to other East Coast ports, where longshore workers use hiring halls or telephonic dispatch to take any daily jobs listed as available at any of a port’s various facilities. NY-NJ maritime employers rely on specific longshore workers due to the different layout and equipment at each of its six container terminals. Marine terminals put out orders the day prior for how many longshore workers they need. ILA members at those terminals can then accept the day’s work, or it gets offered to someone else. Absenteeism can be particularly acute on Mondays. An ILA member may have worked at a time-and-half wage rate on the weekend but not show up for a shift at a regular time wage rate on Monday, despite having committed to that day’s work. “You can take a couple of days off for unanticipated reasons, but if you leave yourself in the system and accept a job, you need to take that job,” Nardi said. “You can’t just not show up without repercussions.” Under the new policy, longshore workers are allowed three days of unexcused absences each month. But unexcused absences following a weekend or a holiday count as one-and-half of those days, as do consecutive days of unexcused absences. The disciplinary escalation to firing is shortened under the new contract from seven unexcused absences to four. While longshore workers had a pass until the second unexcused absence for a warning letter, the first unexcused absence now results in a warning letter. Under the old contract, longshore workers were relegated to lower-paying, dispatched jobs at the cruise and roll-on/roll-off terminals for several periods of time before a possible termination. But the new contract only offers one relegation period, followed by a two-week suspension and then firing. The new contract also has a stricter policy around longshore employees who unexpectedly leave work during their shift. <h3>Container move clause </h3>The new, local NY-NJ contract also has requirements that each longshore gang improve productivity by one container move each year, otherwise they lose seniority to another more productive gang. The number of longshore workers hired as standby relief went up under the new contract from three workers for every two jobs to two workers for every one job. However, Nardi said the additional relief has to be cost-neutral for employers and is contingent on productivity goals. Close to a year under the new contract, Nardi said the new absenteeism policy, along with the productivity measures, have resulted in a 7% increase in productivity at the port’s biggest terminals. He added that improved labor productivity aligns with the ILA’s goal of halting port automation. During contract negotiations, ILA President Harold Daggett also <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ila-usmx-remain-at-odds-over-dockworker-wage-increases-daggett-5215515">appealed to the union’s rank-and-file</a> to improve their productivity due to the potential for job loss from automation. “If [the ILA is] focused on stemming the tide of automation, then people need to show up,” Nardi said. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Marine terminals at the Port of New York and New Jersey have made the first — albeit very small — cuts of chronically absent employees under terms outlined in the new local longshore contract, one of the main concessions employers won under the deal to boost productivity at the port. John Nardi, president of the Shipping Association of New York and New Jersey, which represents maritime employers at the port, said this week five local longshore workers were fired in January under the new unexcused absentee policy his group negotiated in the local contract with the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA). The cuts are miniscule in relation to the port’s 4,400 ILA workers. But Nardi said the new policy’s message has had an impact by cutting absenteeism at the port in half since the new contract, something that employers have “fought for years to improve.” “We worked very closely with the ILA to fix some longstanding challenges,” Nardi said. “We had the full support of the ILA at the highest level. We’re not fooling around on this.” The ILA did not respond to a request for comment from the Journal of Commerce. The local contract was officially ratified last year as part of the master contract between the ILA and the United States Maritime Alliance, with the union securing a 62% increase in its top wage tier through 2030. The first year of that wage increase, along with a higher entry-level wage and manning changes, have resulted in a nearly 20% increase in labor costs for marine terminals since March 2025, according to a source familiar with the deal’s economics. Monday popular for absenteeism The master contract required all East and Gulf coast ports to draw up absentee policies. But absenteeism is a particular problem for the NY-NJ port relative to other East Coast ports, where longshore workers use hiring halls or telephonic dispatch to take any daily jobs listed as available at any of a port’s various facilities. NY-NJ maritime employers rely on specific longshore workers due to the different layout and equipment at each of its six container terminals. Marine terminals put out orders the day prior for how many longshore workers they need. ILA members at those terminals can then accept the day’s work, or it gets offered to someone else. Absenteeism can be particularly acute on Mondays. An ILA member may have worked at a time-and-half wage rate on the weekend but not show up for a shift at a regular time wage rate on Monday, despite having committed to that day’s work. “You can take a couple of days off for unanticipated reasons, but if you leave yourself in the system and accept a job, you need to take that job,” Nardi said. “You can’t just not show up without repercussions.” Under the new policy, longshore workers are allowed three days of unexcused absences each month. But unexcused absences following a weekend or a holiday count as one-and-half of those days, as do consecutive days of unexcused absences. The disciplinary escalation to firing is shortened under the new contract from seven unexcused absences to four. While longshore workers had a pass until the second unexcused absence for a warning letter, the first unexcused absence now results in a warning letter. Under the old contract, longshore workers were relegated to lower-paying, dispatched jobs at the cruise and roll-on/roll-off terminals for several periods of time before a possible termination. But the new contract only offers one relegation period, followed by a two-week suspension and then firing. The new contract also has a stricter policy around longshore employees who unexpectedly leave work during their shift. Container move clause The new, local NY-NJ contract also has requirements that each longshore gang improve productivity by one container move each year, otherwise they lose seniority to another more productive gang. The number of longshore workers hired as standby relief went up under the new contract from three workers for every two jobs to two workers for every one job. However, Nardi said the additional relief has to be cost-neutral for employers and is contingent on productivity goals. Close to a year under the new contract, Nardi said the new absenteeism policy, along with the productivity measures, have resulted in a 7% increase in productivity at the port’s biggest terminals. He added that improved labor productivity aligns with the ILA’s goal of halting port automation. During contract negotiations, ILA President Harold Daggett also appealed to the union’s rank-and-file to improve their productivity due to the potential for job loss from automation. “If [the ILA is] focused on stemming the tide of automation, then people need to show up,” Nardi said. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

NY-NJ port’s stricter absentee policy results in first longshore cuts 

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The carrier’s solid interim earnings through 2025 ensured a positive full-year result, but red ink made its first appearance in two years on the company’s quarterly balance sheet. </div>

The carrier’s solid interim earnings through 2025 ensured a positive full-year result, but red ink made its first appearance in two years on the company’s quarterly balance sheet.

<div class="phx-topic">The positive impact of the Gemini Cooperation network with partner Hapag-Lloyd that has carried through into 2026 will run into growing overcapacity exacerbated by a return to Suez Canal transits, Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said Thursday. While Gemini’s rollout one year ago drove up Maersk’s annual volume, delivered significant cost savings across the network, and generated a record 2025 performance in its terminals division, Clerc warned the industry was heading into a downturn driven by excess capacity. “Whether it is through new ships that are coming in or through the return to Suez, we’re going to have an overcapacity of anywhere from 4% to 8% in 2026,” the CEO said during an earnings call that followed the release of Maersk’s fourth-quarter and 2025 financial results. “If we return fast and full to Suez, we will see more pressure on the freight rate because there is a bigger gap that we need to close at once,” Clerc added. “If we have an orderly, slow, gradual return, we might be able to manage it better.” While Maersk’s solid interim earnings through 2025 ensured a positive full-year result, red ink made its first appearance in two years on the carrier’s quarterly balance sheet. The company also announced it will cut 1,000 jobs this year. Maersk for the fourth quarter reported a $153 million loss in its container shipping segment as average rates fell 23% year over year to $2,046 per FEU, offsetting an 8% gain in volume to 3.4 million FEUs. Revenue in the fourth quarter of $13.3 billion was down 8.7% year over year, and earnings before interest, taxes, amortization and depreciation (EBITDA) fell 49% to $1.8 billion. Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) were down 94% at $100 million, while the carrier recorded zero net profit in the fourth quarter. For the full year, revenue dropped 2.7% year over year to $54 billion, EBITDA was down 21% at $9.5 billion, EBIT of $3.5 billion fell 46%, and net profit of $2.9 billion was down 53% compared with 2024. <h3>Potential loss flagged for 2026 </h3>The severe impact of overcapacity on the market was illustrated in Maersk’s 2026 profitability forecast. Faced with a return to the Suez and new ship deliveries adding to industry overcapacity, the carrier has flagged a potential $1.5 billion loss in its full-year EBIT earnings for 2026. It would be the first operating loss Maersk has booked in 10 years. The top end of the profit guidance was set at $1 billion, $2.5 billion less than last year’s result. With profitability falling and huge pressure on cost savings, the significant cost benefits achieved by Gemini in 2025 will be welcome. “We have generated over $300 million in benefits in the fourth quarter, and we are now targeting $820 [million] to $1.1 billion in annual benefits,” Clerc told analysts. He said network savings are generated by more efficient use of vessels by sailing at slower speeds over shorter distances between hub ports, transporting more volume with the same capacity, and having shorter dwell times at berth. The lower bunker consumption from these measures translated to a cost saving of $150 million in the fourth quarter alone. Gemini’s increased volume also had a highly positive impact on Maersk’s APM Terminals division, with fourth-quarter revenue of $1.4 billion that was up 13% year over year and volume increasing 8.4%, mainly on the Europe, North America and Latin America trade lanes. <h3>Strong global container demand </h3>The industry might be facing a growing overcapacity problem, but demand in 2026 is expected to grow between 2% and 4%; Maersk expects to grow its volume in line with the market. “As we look ahead to 2026, we see a continuation of strong global container demand translating into a volume growth that we expect to land between 2% and 4% based on various scenarios,” Clerc said. Maersk’s executives are also confident they have the tools in place to handle the imbalance in supply and demand. “We have a strong balance sheet to weather the downturn in ocean, [but] the unknown is how deep and how long will it last,” Maersk CFO Patrick Jany said on the call, highlighting the significant number of old vessels that were not economically viable at current rate levels. Jany said at some point, the unviable capacity would be scrapped, returned to charterers or idled. “I would expect this to happen this year, particularly in scenarios where the Red Sea reopens fully and fast, that will trigger every reaction,” he said. “Our view is not that we’ll have three years of pain, but more that you will have one or two years of pain, and then the capacity will be taken out.” Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The positive impact of the Gemini Cooperation network with partner Hapag-Lloyd that has carried through into 2026 will run into growing overcapacity exacerbated by a return to Suez Canal transits, Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said Thursday. While Gemini’s rollout one year ago drove up Maersk’s annual volume, delivered significant cost savings across the network, and generated a record 2025 performance in its terminals division, Clerc warned the industry was heading into a downturn driven by excess capacity. “Whether it is through new ships that are coming in or through the return to Suez, we’re going to have an overcapacity of anywhere from 4% to 8% in 2026,” the CEO said during an earnings call that followed the release of Maersk’s fourth-quarter and 2025 financial results. “If we return fast and full to Suez, we will see more pressure on the freight rate because there is a bigger gap that we need to close at once,” Clerc added. “If we have an orderly, slow, gradual return, we might be able to manage it better.” While Maersk’s solid interim earnings through 2025 ensured a positive full-year result, red ink made its first appearance in two years on the carrier’s quarterly balance sheet. The company also announced it will cut 1,000 jobs this year. Maersk for the fourth quarter reported a $153 million loss in its container shipping segment as average rates fell 23% year over year to $2,046 per FEU, offsetting an 8% gain in volume to 3.4 million FEUs. Revenue in the fourth quarter of $13.3 billion was down 8.7% year over year, and earnings before interest, taxes, amortization and depreciation (EBITDA) fell 49% to $1.8 billion. Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) were down 94% at $100 million, while the carrier recorded zero net profit in the fourth quarter. For the full year, revenue dropped 2.7% year over year to $54 billion, EBITDA was down 21% at $9.5 billion, EBIT of $3.5 billion fell 46%, and net profit of $2.9 billion was down 53% compared with 2024. Potential loss flagged for 2026 The severe impact of overcapacity on the market was illustrated in Maersk’s 2026 profitability forecast. Faced with a return to the Suez and new ship deliveries adding to industry overcapacity, the carrier has flagged a potential $1.5 billion loss in its full-year EBIT earnings for 2026. It would be the first operating loss Maersk has booked in 10 years. The top end of the profit guidance was set at $1 billion, $2.5 billion less than last year’s result. With profitability falling and huge pressure on cost savings, the significant cost benefits achieved by Gemini in 2025 will be welcome. “We have generated over $300 million in benefits in the fourth quarter, and we are now targeting $820 [million] to $1.1 billion in annual benefits,” Clerc told analysts. He said network savings are generated by more efficient use of vessels by sailing at slower speeds over shorter distances between hub ports, transporting more volume with the same capacity, and having shorter dwell times at berth. The lower bunker consumption from these measures translated to a cost saving of $150 million in the fourth quarter alone. Gemini’s increased volume also had a highly positive impact on Maersk’s APM Terminals division, with fourth-quarter revenue of $1.4 billion that was up 13% year over year and volume increasing 8.4%, mainly on the Europe, North America and Latin America trade lanes. Strong global container demand The industry might be facing a growing overcapacity problem, but demand in 2026 is expected to grow between 2% and 4%; Maersk expects to grow its volume in line with the market. “As we look ahead to 2026, we see a continuation of strong global container demand translating into a volume growth that we expect to land between 2% and 4% based on various scenarios,” Clerc said. Maersk’s executives are also confident they have the tools in place to handle the imbalance in supply and demand. “We have a strong balance sheet to weather the downturn in ocean, [but] the unknown is how deep and how long will it last,” Maersk CFO Patrick Jany said on the call, highlighting the significant number of old vessels that were not economically viable at current rate levels. Jany said at some point, the unviable capacity would be scrapped, returned to charterers or idled. “I would expect this to happen this year, particularly in scenarios where the Red Sea reopens fully and fast, that will trigger every reaction,” he said. “Our view is not that we’ll have three years of pain, but more that you will have one or two years of pain, and then the capacity will be taken out.” Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

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