<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Intermodal marketing companies have long been at a disadvantage because rail-owned containers lacked the real-time tracking and tracing capabilities that are standard among private fleets.</div>

Intermodal marketing companies have long been at a disadvantage because rail-owned containers lacked the real-time tracking and tracing capabilities that are standard among private fleets.

Feature image

<div class="phx-topic">A multiyear effort to install GPS devices on approximately 75,000 rail-owned intermodal containers shared among several North American Class I railroads has been completed, according to Union Pacific Railroad (UP), closing a visibility gap that gave private container owners a strategic advantage in negotiations with shippers. UP owns and operates the container fleet, which also runs on the networks of Canadian National Railway, CSX Transportation, Norfolk Southern Railway and Mexico’s Ferromex. “This is another meaningful step as we deliver the best customer experience possible,” Kenny Rocker, UP’s executive vice president of sales, said in a statement on Monday. “By combining GPS-enabled containers with real-time data and smarter visibility tools, we’re providing the transparency and reliability our customers depend on.” The rail-owned containers are a critical resource for non-asset intermodal marketing companies (IMC), which compete directly for shipper freight with private container owners such as Hub Group, J.B. Hunt Transport Services and Schneider National. IMCs have long been at a disadvantage because rail-owned containers lacked the real-time tracking and tracing capabilities that are standard among private fleets. By contrast, real-time visibility is now common across the US truckload sector. Closing that gap has taken on added importance as UP’s projections for truckload-to-rail conversions are a pillar of its <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/up-in-merger-filing-vows-to-convert-millions-of-loads-to-intermodal-annually-6138380">case before the US Surface Transportation Board</a> as it seeks approval of its proposed acquisition of Norfolk Southern. Real-time location tracking of the rail-owned boxes will be available through the Blume Global platform and will support e-mail notifications, geofencing and application programming interface (API) connectivity. The move also introduces potential risk, however, as much of the freight moving in rail-owned containers already relies on Blume Global software; the logistics technology provider was the target of a cyberattack in 2022. Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

A multiyear effort to install GPS devices on approximately 75,000 rail-owned intermodal containers shared among several North American Class I railroads has been completed, according to Union Pacific Railroad (UP), closing a visibility gap that gave private container owners a strategic advantage in negotiations with shippers. UP owns and operates the container fleet, which also runs on the networks of Canadian National Railway, CSX Transportation, Norfolk Southern Railway and Mexico’s Ferromex. “This is another meaningful step as we deliver the best customer experience possible,” Kenny Rocker, UP’s executive vice president of sales, said in a statement on Monday. “By combining GPS-enabled containers with real-time data and smarter visibility tools, we’re providing the transparency and reliability our customers depend on.” The rail-owned containers are a critical resource for non-asset intermodal marketing companies (IMC), which compete directly for shipper freight with private container owners such as Hub Group, J.B. Hunt Transport Services and Schneider National. IMCs have long been at a disadvantage because rail-owned containers lacked the real-time tracking and tracing capabilities that are standard among private fleets. By contrast, real-time visibility is now common across the US truckload sector. Closing that gap has taken on added importance as UP’s projections for truckload-to-rail conversions are a pillar of its case before the US Surface Transportation Board as it seeks approval of its proposed acquisition of Norfolk Southern. Real-time location tracking of the rail-owned boxes will be available through the Blume Global platform and will support e-mail notifications, geofencing and application programming interface (API) connectivity. The move also introduces potential risk, however, as much of the freight moving in rail-owned containers already relies on Blume Global software; the logistics technology provider was the target of a cyberattack in 2022. Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Rail News

North-American rail

North American rail container fleet fully outfitted with GPS devices

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">With inflation increasing, consumer confidence declining and unemployment on the rise, US imports from Asia are not expected to see the typical pre-Lunar New Year surge in January and February.</div>

With inflation increasing, consumer confidence declining and unemployment on the rise, US imports from Asia are not expected to see the typical pre-Lunar New Year surge in January and February.

<div class="phx-topic">The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook. The big picture: Container gateways on the US West Coast in 2025 were able to hold onto market share gained in 2024 as importers frontloading seasonal merchandise from Asia due to tariff uncertainties took advantage of transit times that are at least two weeks shorter than East Coast routings. West Coast gateways remained relatively free from congestion throughout the year, and those conditions are likely to continue given the weak import volumes forecast for the first quarter of 2026. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6144851_0.1.jpg"></img></div>A look back: Similar to the wider trans-Pacific market, US West Coast ports benefited from tariff-related frontloading in the first half of 2025, but that growth turned to double-digit percentage declines in the fall. Amid the roller-coaster demand movements, the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland and the Northwest Seaport Alliance of Seattle and Tacoma handled 59.2% of US imports from Asia through November, exactly the same share as in the first 11 months of 2024, according to PIERS, a Journal of Commerce sister product within S&amp;P Global. To handle the somewhat volatile swings in volumes — a record 1.2 million TEUs of laden imports crossed West Coast terminal docks in July, for example — port stakeholders continued to incorporate the lessons they learned during the COVID-19 pandemic. Improved shipment forecasts and information sharing among carriers, marine terminals, truckers, chassis providers, railroads and warehouses resulted in lower truck turn and container dwell times at the marine terminals and fluid operations at warehouses and inland rail terminals. A look ahead: Cargo volumes at West Coast ports in 2026 will likely be impacted by macroeconomic forces in the US. With inflation increasing, consumer confidence declining and unemployment on the rise, US imports from Asia are not expected to see the typical pre-Lunar New Year surge in January and February. And unless some clarity and predictability in the Trump administration’s tariff policies are forthcoming, retailers are likely to be conservative in ordering spring and summer merchandise, extending year-over-year declines in West Coast imports through the first half of 2026. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="c328e2d6-c694-4af5-b0bb-86af8cec1ba4"></dynamic-object></div>Meanwhile, cargo owners, terminal operators and truckers in Southern California will be keeping a close eye on a lengthy bridge redecking project slated to begin in January. Located at the entry to Los Angeles harbor, the 63-year-old Vincent Thomas Bridge handles 53,000 vehicles a day, including about 3,400 heavy-duty trucks, according to the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans). Traffic disruptions are anticipated throughout the redecking project, which will require one-directional bridge closures through November followed by a full shutdown from November 2026 to March 2028. Although Caltrans has implemented an alternative route for truck and vehicular traffic and an information network with real-time updates on detours and delays, stakeholders remain concerned about roadway congestion potentially backing up to the terminals. The next inflection: If container lines return to the Suez Canal, East and Gulf coast ports could regain some of the market share they lost to the West Coast in the past two years. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook. The big picture: Container gateways on the US West Coast in 2025 were able to hold onto market share gained in 2024 as importers frontloading seasonal merchandise from Asia due to tariff uncertainties took advantage of transit times that are at least two weeks shorter than East Coast routings. West Coast gateways remained relatively free from congestion throughout the year, and those conditions are likely to continue given the weak import volumes forecast for the first quarter of 2026. A look back: Similar to the wider trans-Pacific market, US West Coast ports benefited from tariff-related frontloading in the first half of 2025, but that growth turned to double-digit percentage declines in the fall. Amid the roller-coaster demand movements, the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland and the Northwest Seaport Alliance of Seattle and Tacoma handled 59.2% of US imports from Asia through November, exactly the same share as in the first 11 months of 2024, according to PIERS, a Journal of Commerce sister product within S&P Global. To handle the somewhat volatile swings in volumes — a record 1.2 million TEUs of laden imports crossed West Coast terminal docks in July, for example — port stakeholders continued to incorporate the lessons they learned during the COVID-19 pandemic. Improved shipment forecasts and information sharing among carriers, marine terminals, truckers, chassis providers, railroads and warehouses resulted in lower truck turn and container dwell times at the marine terminals and fluid operations at warehouses and inland rail terminals. A look ahead: Cargo volumes at West Coast ports in 2026 will likely be impacted by macroeconomic forces in the US. With inflation increasing, consumer confidence declining and unemployment on the rise, US imports from Asia are not expected to see the typical pre-Lunar New Year surge in January and February. And unless some clarity and predictability in the Trump administration’s tariff policies are forthcoming, retailers are likely to be conservative in ordering spring and summer merchandise, extending year-over-year declines in West Coast imports through the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, cargo owners, terminal operators and truckers in Southern California will be keeping a close eye on a lengthy bridge redecking project slated to begin in January. Located at the entry to Los Angeles harbor, the 63-year-old Vincent Thomas Bridge handles 53,000 vehicles a day, including about 3,400 heavy-duty trucks, according to the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans). Traffic disruptions are anticipated throughout the redecking project, which will require one-directional bridge closures through November followed by a full shutdown from November 2026 to March 2028. Although Caltrans has implemented an alternative route for truck and vehicular traffic and an information network with real-time updates on detours and delays, stakeholders remain concerned about roadway congestion potentially backing up to the terminals. The next inflection: If container lines return to the Suez Canal, East and Gulf coast ports could regain some of the market share they lost to the West Coast in the past two years. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .

Port News

Trans-Pacific

North American ports

Container Shipping News

Maritime

Soft volumes to keep West Coast ports congestion-free in early 2026

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Power generation cargoes gave the heavy-lift sector a welcome boost in 2025, and it’s a cargo stream that will not dry up anytime soon.</div>

Power generation cargoes gave the heavy-lift sector a welcome boost in 2025, and it’s a cargo stream that will not dry up anytime soon.

<div class="phx-topic">The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook. Cargo volumes are stacking up nicely as the breakbulk and project sector sails into 2026, but are there enough ships to carry them? The short answer: It depends on the commodity. The Journal of Commerce projects fleet growth for heavy-lift (HL) capable vessels at an average annual rate of 4.1% though 2029, but that might not be enough for the projected boom in heavy-lift cargoes. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6144851_0.1.jpg"></img></div>After two decades of essentially flat energy demand, project cargo-hungry server farms are expected to boost US electricity consumption at a compound annual growth rate of more than 3% from 2025 to 2030, according to an October report from S&amp;P Global Energy. Driven by growth in renewable energy sources, particularly onshore wind and solar power, and demand from a variety of sources including data centers, electric vehicles and the industrial sector, global power generation is expected to increase by an average of 3.3% per year through 2030. Power generation cargoes gave the heavy-lift sector a welcome boost in 2025. With lead times for transformer and generator orders in some cases stretching beyond project development timescales, this is a cargo stream that will not dry up anytime soon. Two years into the generative AI revolution, the mismatch between data center power requirements and supply has reached a critical point. This has led to growing interest in thermal energy options as evolving policy reshapes the energy sector. Momentum continues for the nuclear industry, while gas turbine orders are at their highest levels in nearly 25 years, and coal unit retirement plans are being delayed. One shipper of transformers into the US told the Journal of Commerce they had never seen a market like it. All the big manufacturers are effectively full through 2030 as new power plants are being built, while older facilities — some of which are over 40 years old in the US — replace machinery. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="517f1375-3744-4198-b50b-91d9eca08b4d"></dynamic-object></div>While the shipment of larger pieces is the domain of specialized multipurpose carriers, the smaller pieces needed to manufacture a turbine or generator have more options for carriage. Equally, modules needed for new technology plants — such as chip manufacturers — are significantly lighter than modules being shipped for, say, a gas liquefaction plant. This extra breakbulk demand gives shippers the option to shop around for transport options. <h3>Metals and mining ‘on steroids’ </h3>Another project cargo-hungry sector is metals and mining, described by one shipper as currently “on steroids.” Copper is in particularly high demand due to its role in the green energy transition and for electric vehicle manufacturing. The International Energy Agency warned in December that there could be a global supply deficit of 30% by 2035 due to declining ore grades, rising capital costs and lengthy project development timelines despite increased investment in the sector. There are several copper projects in South America that are expanding and more in Southeast Asia and the US that are at the feasibility stage. If these projects are commissioned, then demand for mining equipment will rocket — a boon for roll-on/roll-off carriers best suited to carrying these cargoes. Meanwhile, simpler multipurpose vessels are projected to grow at just 0.5% per year over the same period. But these are the vessels that will compete with container carriers and bulkers, sectors in which overcapacity was already a problem as 2025 closed. When the Suez Canal route is deemed safe again, both fleets could see an effective capacity increase of up to 10%. Contact Susan Oatway at <a href="mailto:susan.oatway@spglobal.com">susan.oatway@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook. Cargo volumes are stacking up nicely as the breakbulk and project sector sails into 2026, but are there enough ships to carry them? The short answer: It depends on the commodity. The Journal of Commerce projects fleet growth for heavy-lift (HL) capable vessels at an average annual rate of 4.1% though 2029, but that might not be enough for the projected boom in heavy-lift cargoes. After two decades of essentially flat energy demand, project cargo-hungry server farms are expected to boost US electricity consumption at a compound annual growth rate of more than 3% from 2025 to 2030, according to an October report from S&P Global Energy. Driven by growth in renewable energy sources, particularly onshore wind and solar power, and demand from a variety of sources including data centers, electric vehicles and the industrial sector, global power generation is expected to increase by an average of 3.3% per year through 2030. Power generation cargoes gave the heavy-lift sector a welcome boost in 2025. With lead times for transformer and generator orders in some cases stretching beyond project development timescales, this is a cargo stream that will not dry up anytime soon. Two years into the generative AI revolution, the mismatch between data center power requirements and supply has reached a critical point. This has led to growing interest in thermal energy options as evolving policy reshapes the energy sector. Momentum continues for the nuclear industry, while gas turbine orders are at their highest levels in nearly 25 years, and coal unit retirement plans are being delayed. One shipper of transformers into the US told the Journal of Commerce they had never seen a market like it. All the big manufacturers are effectively full through 2030 as new power plants are being built, while older facilities — some of which are over 40 years old in the US — replace machinery. While the shipment of larger pieces is the domain of specialized multipurpose carriers, the smaller pieces needed to manufacture a turbine or generator have more options for carriage. Equally, modules needed for new technology plants — such as chip manufacturers — are significantly lighter than modules being shipped for, say, a gas liquefaction plant. This extra breakbulk demand gives shippers the option to shop around for transport options. Metals and mining ‘on steroids’ Another project cargo-hungry sector is metals and mining, described by one shipper as currently “on steroids.” Copper is in particularly high demand due to its role in the green energy transition and for electric vehicle manufacturing. The International Energy Agency warned in December that there could be a global supply deficit of 30% by 2035 due to declining ore grades, rising capital costs and lengthy project development timelines despite increased investment in the sector. There are several copper projects in South America that are expanding and more in Southeast Asia and the US that are at the feasibility stage. If these projects are commissioned, then demand for mining equipment will rocket — a boon for roll-on/roll-off carriers best suited to carrying these cargoes. Meanwhile, simpler multipurpose vessels are projected to grow at just 0.5% per year over the same period. But these are the vessels that will compete with container carriers and bulkers, sectors in which overcapacity was already a problem as 2025 closed. When the Suez Canal route is deemed safe again, both fleets could see an effective capacity increase of up to 10%. Contact Susan Oatway at susan.oatway@spglobal.com .

Breakbulk carriers

Ro/ro cargo

Energy projects

Heavy-haul transport

Project cargo

Breakbulk News

Energy-related transport, metals and mining to lift project cargo sector in 2026

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Few blank sailings have been announced for January, and none this week, as shippers in Asia get their cargo on the water ahead of China’s Lunar New Year factory shutdown.</div>

Few blank sailings have been announced for January, and none this week, as shippers in Asia get their cargo on the water ahead of China’s Lunar New Year factory shutdown.

<div class="phx-topic">The annual pre-Lunar New Year rush is underway on the Asia-North Europe ocean trade, with some market watchers reporting signs of frontloading on top of seasonal demand while others feel the volumes in January are within historical norms.What is clear, however, is that carriers are injecting significant capacity into the trade lane this month while blanking very few sailings as shippers race to get their cargo on the water before factories across China close for up to three weeks. The Year of the Horse begins on Feb. 17.Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, said capacity offered on Asia to North Europe was at an all-time high this week with no blank sailings. Data from Xeneta’s eeSea shows a record 1.15 million TEUs in capacity is being deployed this month on the Asia-North Europe trade lane, with blank sailings removing just 25,000 TEUs. In February, the planned capacity will drop to just over 1 million TEUs.“Demand is solid and seasonally strong ... anything of top of that could be fueled by [market] uncertainty,” Sand told the Journal of Commerce.Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis also highlighted a significant capacity increase, pointing to current weekly capacity of 421,825 TEUs being offered on Asia-North Europe, a 49% net increase compared with a 2015–19 pre-COVID-19 historical baseline.<div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="a63d21f3-de18-45d8-8acf-7aca6ea4f4c4"></dynamic-object></div>“This is a strong indication of a frontloading strategy where shippers are pushing massive volumes into the network much earlier than the historical figures suggest, likely a response to the current extended Asia-Europe transit times,” Sea-Intelligence wrote in the newsletter.“By flooding the trade lane early, shippers aim to ensure that their European inventory is buffered before the planned Lunar New Year capacity withdrawal begins,” the analyst noted.<h3>Demand following seasonal patterns</h3>A spokesman for Hapag-Lloyd said demand on the eastbound trade routes from Asia to Europe was following seasonal patterns.“We’re witnessing a normal peak season which started in December and is now ramping up towards Lunar New Year,” a spokesperson for Hapag-Lloyd told the Journal of Commerce. “We expect bookings to soften from end-January onwards as factories close.”Michael Aldwell, executive vice president of sea logistics at Kuehne + Nagel, said most of the forwarder’s customers in Europe used a “just-in-time” approach to manage supply chains and stock levels, which was affecting the duration of peak shipping periods.“[However], after two years of extended transit times, shippers are adjusting their plans accordingly, leading to a more stretched peak season,” Aldwell told the Journal of Commerce.Rising spot rates are accompanying the strong pre-Lunar New Year demand, with all indexes showing steep increases since early October. According to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, Asia-North Europe rates of $2,700 per FEU this week are more than double the Oct. 3 price. Container Trades Statistics, in its latest available data (October), shows Asia-North Europe container volume growth of almost 8% over the first 10 months of 2025 as oscillating US tariffs on Beijing saw Chinese shippers redirecting cargo to European markets. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The annual pre-Lunar New Year rush is underway on the Asia-North Europe ocean trade, with some market watchers reporting signs of frontloading on top of seasonal demand while others feel the volumes in January are within historical norms. What is clear, however, is that carriers are injecting significant capacity into the trade lane this month while blanking very few sailings as shippers race to get their cargo on the water before factories across China close for up to three weeks. The Year of the Horse begins on Feb. 17. Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, said capacity offered on Asia to North Europe was at an all-time high this week with no blank sailings. Data from Xeneta’s eeSea shows a record 1.15 million TEUs in capacity is being deployed this month on the Asia-North Europe trade lane, with blank sailings removing just 25,000 TEUs. In February, the planned capacity will drop to just over 1 million TEUs. “Demand is solid and seasonally strong ... anything of top of that could be fueled by [market] uncertainty,” Sand told the Journal of Commerce. Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis also highlighted a significant capacity increase, pointing to current weekly capacity of 421,825 TEUs being offered on Asia-North Europe, a 49% net increase compared with a 2015–19 pre-COVID-19 historical baseline. “This is a strong indication of a frontloading strategy where shippers are pushing massive volumes into the network much earlier than the historical figures suggest, likely a response to the current extended Asia-Europe transit times,” Sea-Intelligence wrote in the newsletter. “By flooding the trade lane early, shippers aim to ensure that their European inventory is buffered before the planned Lunar New Year capacity withdrawal begins,” the analyst noted. Demand following seasonal patterns A spokesman for Hapag-Lloyd said demand on the eastbound trade routes from Asia to Europe was following seasonal patterns. “We’re witnessing a normal peak season which started in December and is now ramping up towards Lunar New Year,” a spokesperson for Hapag-Lloyd told the Journal of Commerce. “We expect bookings to soften from end-January onwards as factories close.” Michael Aldwell, executive vice president of sea logistics at Kuehne + Nagel, said most of the forwarder’s customers in Europe used a “just-in-time” approach to manage supply chains and stock levels, which was affecting the duration of peak shipping periods. “[However], after two years of extended transit times, shippers are adjusting their plans accordingly, leading to a more stretched peak season,” Aldwell told the Journal of Commerce. Rising spot rates are accompanying the strong pre-Lunar New Year demand, with all indexes showing steep increases since early October. According to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, Asia-North Europe rates of $2,700 per FEU this week are more than double the Oct. 3 price. Container Trades Statistics, in its latest available data (October), shows Asia-North Europe container volume growth of almost 8% over the first 10 months of 2025 as oscillating US tariffs on Beijing saw Chinese shippers redirecting cargo to European markets. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Asia-Europe

Asia-Europe ocean carriers add capacity as trade enters peak shipping period

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The deals for nine feeder container ships and four multipurpose and heavy-lift ships total about $490 million, according to Cosco and shipbrokers.</div>

The deals for nine feeder container ships and four multipurpose and heavy-lift ships total about $490 million, according to Cosco and shipbrokers.

<div class="phx-topic">Cosco Shipping has awarded the initial tranche of shipbuilding contracts in its $7 billion fleet expansion and modernization program with China Shipbuilding Group announced in early December. The deals for nine feeder container ships and four multipurpose and heavy-lift ships total about $490 million, according to Cosco and shipbrokers. The larger package has been signed by Cosco Shipping Lines with CSSC Wuchang Shipbuilding for five 1,100-TEU feeder container ships and four 1,800-TEU vessels at a total cost of about $280 million. Seven of the ships will be delivered in 2028, with the remaining two in 2029. Shipbrokers say the 1,100-TEU ships are priced at about $30 million each, with the larger 1,800-TEU vessels costing $32 million. The ships are expected to be deployed on Cosco’s domestic network and its intra-Europe network operated by its Hamburg-headquartered affiliated carrier, Diamond Line. Meanwhile, a deal valued at $213 million was awarded by Cosco Shipping Specialized Carriers to CSSC Chengxi Shipyard for four 40,000-deadweight metric ton multipurpose and heavy-lift ships, Cosco said in a three-page statement to the Shanghai stock exchange. The first ship will be delivered in June 2028, with two more following in September and December 2028; the final ship will join Cosco’s specialized fleet in February 2029. The orders have been placed against a background of modest fleet growth in the global MPV and heavy-lift sector. The global fleet is set to expand by just 1.9% through 2029 as vessel scrapping largely keeps pace with new vessel deliveries, according to data published on the Journal of Commerce’s Gateway platform. The new vessels are expected to support Cosco’s expansion into the global wind energy sector. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="fb97885d-0b88-4d65-99f6-10558c9e7c79"></dynamic-object></div>“The trend toward larger-scale and deep-sea wind power has placed higher requirements on the scale and vessel type structure of the company’s multipurpose heavy-lift fleet,” Cosco said. Cosco has won a raft of wind energy transportation deals, especially in Europe. It completed the final shipment last month of monopiles for the Inch Cape offshore project in Scotland. Cosco said the new ships will generate an internal rate of return of 6.8% with an “investment payback period of 11.8 years, indicating good economic benefits.” Cosco has one of the world’s largest fleets of MPVs and heavy-lift ships with approximately 70 vessels and 10 semi-submersible deck carriers, which makes it the biggest operator of semi-submersible ships. Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>.</div>

Cosco Shipping has awarded the initial tranche of shipbuilding contracts in its $7 billion fleet expansion and modernization program with China Shipbuilding Group announced in early December. The deals for nine feeder container ships and four multipurpose and heavy-lift ships total about $490 million, according to Cosco and shipbrokers. The larger package has been signed by Cosco Shipping Lines with CSSC Wuchang Shipbuilding for five 1,100-TEU feeder container ships and four 1,800-TEU vessels at a total cost of about $280 million. Seven of the ships will be delivered in 2028, with the remaining two in 2029. Shipbrokers say the 1,100-TEU ships are priced at about $30 million each, with the larger 1,800-TEU vessels costing $32 million. The ships are expected to be deployed on Cosco’s domestic network and its intra-Europe network operated by its Hamburg-headquartered affiliated carrier, Diamond Line. Meanwhile, a deal valued at $213 million was awarded by Cosco Shipping Specialized Carriers to CSSC Chengxi Shipyard for four 40,000-deadweight metric ton multipurpose and heavy-lift ships, Cosco said in a three-page statement to the Shanghai stock exchange. The first ship will be delivered in June 2028, with two more following in September and December 2028; the final ship will join Cosco’s specialized fleet in February 2029. The orders have been placed against a background of modest fleet growth in the global MPV and heavy-lift sector. The global fleet is set to expand by just 1.9% through 2029 as vessel scrapping largely keeps pace with new vessel deliveries, according to data published on the Journal of Commerce’s Gateway platform. The new vessels are expected to support Cosco’s expansion into the global wind energy sector. “The trend toward larger-scale and deep-sea wind power has placed higher requirements on the scale and vessel type structure of the company’s multipurpose heavy-lift fleet,” Cosco said. Cosco has won a raft of wind energy transportation deals, especially in Europe. It completed the final shipment last month of monopiles for the Inch Cape offshore project in Scotland. Cosco said the new ships will generate an internal rate of return of 6.8% with an “investment payback period of 11.8 years, indicating good economic benefits.” Cosco has one of the world’s largest fleets of MPVs and heavy-lift ships with approximately 70 vessels and 10 semi-submersible deck carriers, which makes it the biggest operator of semi-submersible ships. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

Container lines

Cosco awards initial newbuilding deals as part of $7 billion fleet expansion

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">While the new delay — on products reliant on wood imports — provides a respite for importers of the affected goods, it prolongs for another year a period of uncertainty over how tariffs might impact the cost of what they sell.</div>

While the new delay — on products reliant on wood imports — provides a respite for importers of the affected goods, it prolongs for another year a period of uncertainty over how tariffs might impact the cost of what they sell.

<div class="phx-topic">The Trump administration’s decision to postpone a hefty, planned hike in tariffs on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/white-house-rolls-back-tariffs-on-broad-list-of-food-and-ag-imports-6116742">echoes a move in mid-November</a> by the White House to delay planned tariff increases on food and agriculture imports. The most recent tariffs, on products reliant on wood imports, were due to increase Jan. 1 from the existing 25% to between 30% and 50%, depending on the product. But those increases have been suspended for a year and now will go into effect Jan. 1, 2027 due to “productive negotiations with trade partners” in addressing trade reciprocity and national security concerns, the Trump administration announced New Year’s Eve. The tariff rollback in November came less than two weeks after Democrats were overwhelmingly successful on Election Day, winning a number of key state and local races where affordability and the rising cost of everyday products were key issues, with opponents of the Trump administration pinning the hikes on tariffs. While the latest tariff delay provides a respite for importers of affected products in the furniture and cabinetry industries, it prolongs for another year a period of uncertainty over how tariffs might impact the cost of the goods they sell, trade associations in the furniture and home building industries said. “With the nation facing a housing affordability crisis, [the National Association of Home Builders] continues to urge the president to exempt building materials as part of his tariff strategy because they raise construction costs, impede supply chains and place upward pressure on home prices,” the group said in a statement. Contact Eric Johnson at <a href="mailto:eric.johnson@spglobal.com">eric.johnson@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The Trump administration’s decision to postpone a hefty, planned hike in tariffs on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities echoes a move in mid-November by the White House to delay planned tariff increases on food and agriculture imports. The most recent tariffs, on products reliant on wood imports, were due to increase Jan. 1 from the existing 25% to between 30% and 50%, depending on the product. But those increases have been suspended for a year and now will go into effect Jan. 1, 2027 due to “productive negotiations with trade partners” in addressing trade reciprocity and national security concerns, the Trump administration announced New Year’s Eve. The tariff rollback in November came less than two weeks after Democrats were overwhelmingly successful on Election Day, winning a number of key state and local races where affordability and the rising cost of everyday products were key issues, with opponents of the Trump administration pinning the hikes on tariffs. While the latest tariff delay provides a respite for importers of affected products in the furniture and cabinetry industries, it prolongs for another year a period of uncertainty over how tariffs might impact the cost of the goods they sell, trade associations in the furniture and home building industries said. “With the nation facing a housing affordability crisis, [the National Association of Home Builders] continues to urge the president to exempt building materials as part of his tariff strategy because they raise construction costs, impede supply chains and place upward pressure on home prices,” the group said in a statement. Contact Eric Johnson at eric.johnson@spglobal.com .

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

Supply chain

Latest tariff delay by Trump echoes postponement from November

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">While there is little doubt that heightened regulatory enforcement has played some role in affecting dry-van truckload capacity in the fourth quarter of 2025, efforts to attribute the sharp rise in spot prices this month to regulatory enforcement are premature, writes Jason Miller. </div>

While there is little doubt that heightened regulatory enforcement has played some role in affecting dry-van truckload capacity in the fourth quarter of 2025, efforts to attribute the sharp rise in spot prices this month to regulatory enforcement are premature, writes Jason Miller.

<div class="phx-topic">As we enter 2026, questions swirl about dry-van truckload capacity, especially following the sharp rise in dry-van truckload spot rates in December coupled with extensive discourse about heightened regulatory enforcement. By my estimate, adjusting for fuel prices, dry-van truckload spot rates were up 9% year over year this month and posted the best single-month increase in over five years. While we will need to wait until February to fully understand if this rate increase was simply a super-seasonal spike, this analysis on dry-van truckload capacity and demand dynamics in 2025 provides a sense of likely market behavior in 2026. Beginning with supply, administrative records data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages show a substantial exodus of dry-van truckload capacity since early 2023, with an estimated capacity decline of 7.5% as of June 2025 (the most recently available data). Capacity exit was particularly pronounced during 2024 and continued unabated through June 2025. My estimate places June 2025 payrolls down 2.7% from the prior year. Crucially, this is before heightened regulatory and immigration enforcement could play a significant role. As such, efforts to attribute the sharp rise in dry-van truckload spot prices this month to regulatory enforcement are premature. While there is little doubt that heightened regulatory enforcement has played some role in affecting capacity in the fourth quarter of 2025, especially among <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/21/business/sikhs-truckers-trump-crackdown.html">immigrant drivers</a>, much of the tightening we saw this month may simply be due to lower supply amid a market-driven exit. Combining this payroll data with dynamics observed for separate nonemployer data — which captures leased owner-operators and for-hire owner-operators — my sense is dry van truckload payrolls have fallen to the levels we saw in 2017. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="b62cb6b6-bbe2-4084-b568-3eb5e249d70e"></dynamic-object></div>Turning to demand, quarterly aggregates of the seasonally adjusted trucking ton-mile index show the third quarter of 2025’s year-over-year ton-mile growth was 0.8%. This represents a slow rate of demand growth compared with what we have observed in prior expansionary pricing cycles. For example, the third quarter of 2017 saw ton-miles of demand increase 2.4% from the third quarter of 2016, with the caveat that output was constrained by Hurricane Harvey’s landfall. The fourth quarter of 2017 saw ton-miles of demand increase 3.7% from fourth-quarter 2016 levels. Demand then grew at a 3% to 3.7% year-over-year basis for the first quarter of 2018 through the third quarter of 2018. Demand growth slowed in the fourth quarter of 2018 before dropping significantly in 2019, a year recognized as a freight recession. Industrial production data for the fourth quarter of 2025 suggests that year-over-year growth in ton-miles of demand was likely less than the third quarter of 2025’s 0.8% figure. Combined with ongoing weakness in manufacturing demand as captured by multiple regional manufacturing surveys from Federal Reserve Banks, ongoing weakness in <a href="https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2025/2504">oil and gas activity</a>, and continued soft activity in <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1PwqO">single-family housing</a> as well as <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Pwru">multifamily housing</a>, growth in freight demand in 2026 is likely to remain low compared with what is normally observed during expansionary pricing environments. <h3>Expectations for 2026 </h3>What does this mean for pricing and capacity in 2026? As firms do not expand capacity in response to transient <a href="https://academic.oup.com/ej/article/131/634/598/5873665">increases in demand or prices</a>, dry-van carriers will likely want to observe how spot rates evolve over the next few months. Over the past few years, fuel-adjusted dry-van truckload spot rates in January have remained at or even slightly above levels observed in the prior December. This dynamic held in December 2023 to January 2024 and December 2024 to January 2025. As such, the first thing I will look for is whether spot rates drop in January, but the more significant test is February. If dry-van truckload spot rates hold at current levels in January and February, this is likely to signal to carriers that more supply is needed. This will cause some firms to take action to add capacity, such as ordering more equipment. Historically, year-over-year changes in spot truckload rates are the best predictor of year-over-year changes in <a href="https://doi.org/10.5325/transportationj.61.2.0151">new Class 8 truck orders</a>, suggesting market participants should closely watch where first-quarter 2026 new Class 8 orders land. My sense is carriers acting in the first quarter to add capacity would put more capacity on the road by late third-quarter and early fourth-quarter 2026. Given my expectation that demand growth in 2026 will be slow, this suggests even if an expansionary pricing cycle were to occur in 2026 due primarily to a contraction in supply, these conditions will be shorter-lived and feature smaller price increases on a percentage basis than what occurred during the 2017–18 and 2020–22 expansionary cycles. Jason Miller is an associate professor of logistics at Michigan State University. Contact him at <a href="mailto:mill2831@broad.msu.edu">mill2831@broad.msu.edu</a>. </div>

As we enter 2026, questions swirl about dry-van truckload capacity, especially following the sharp rise in dry-van truckload spot rates in December coupled with extensive discourse about heightened regulatory enforcement. By my estimate, adjusting for fuel prices, dry-van truckload spot rates were up 9% year over year this month and posted the best single-month increase in over five years. While we will need to wait until February to fully understand if this rate increase was simply a super-seasonal spike, this analysis on dry-van truckload capacity and demand dynamics in 2025 provides a sense of likely market behavior in 2026. Beginning with supply, administrative records data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages show a substantial exodus of dry-van truckload capacity since early 2023, with an estimated capacity decline of 7.5% as of June 2025 (the most recently available data). Capacity exit was particularly pronounced during 2024 and continued unabated through June 2025. My estimate places June 2025 payrolls down 2.7% from the prior year. Crucially, this is before heightened regulatory and immigration enforcement could play a significant role. As such, efforts to attribute the sharp rise in dry-van truckload spot prices this month to regulatory enforcement are premature. While there is little doubt that heightened regulatory enforcement has played some role in affecting capacity in the fourth quarter of 2025, especially among immigrant drivers , much of the tightening we saw this month may simply be due to lower supply amid a market-driven exit. Combining this payroll data with dynamics observed for separate nonemployer data — which captures leased owner-operators and for-hire owner-operators — my sense is dry van truckload payrolls have fallen to the levels we saw in 2017. Turning to demand, quarterly aggregates of the seasonally adjusted trucking ton-mile index show the third quarter of 2025’s year-over-year ton-mile growth was 0.8%. This represents a slow rate of demand growth compared with what we have observed in prior expansionary pricing cycles. For example, the third quarter of 2017 saw ton-miles of demand increase 2.4% from the third quarter of 2016, with the caveat that output was constrained by Hurricane Harvey’s landfall. The fourth quarter of 2017 saw ton-miles of demand increase 3.7% from fourth-quarter 2016 levels. Demand then grew at a 3% to 3.7% year-over-year basis for the first quarter of 2018 through the third quarter of 2018. Demand growth slowed in the fourth quarter of 2018 before dropping significantly in 2019, a year recognized as a freight recession. Industrial production data for the fourth quarter of 2025 suggests that year-over-year growth in ton-miles of demand was likely less than the third quarter of 2025’s 0.8% figure. Combined with ongoing weakness in manufacturing demand as captured by multiple regional manufacturing surveys from Federal Reserve Banks, ongoing weakness in oil and gas activity , and continued soft activity in single-family housing as well as multifamily housing , growth in freight demand in 2026 is likely to remain low compared with what is normally observed during expansionary pricing environments. Expectations for 2026 What does this mean for pricing and capacity in 2026? As firms do not expand capacity in response to transient increases in demand or prices , dry-van carriers will likely want to observe how spot rates evolve over the next few months. Over the past few years, fuel-adjusted dry-van truckload spot rates in January have remained at or even slightly above levels observed in the prior December. This dynamic held in December 2023 to January 2024 and December 2024 to January 2025. As such, the first thing I will look for is whether spot rates drop in January, but the more significant test is February. If dry-van truckload spot rates hold at current levels in January and February, this is likely to signal to carriers that more supply is needed. This will cause some firms to take action to add capacity, such as ordering more equipment. Historically, year-over-year changes in spot truckload rates are the best predictor of year-over-year changes in new Class 8 truck orders , suggesting market participants should closely watch where first-quarter 2026 new Class 8 orders land. My sense is carriers acting in the first quarter to add capacity would put more capacity on the road by late third-quarter and early fourth-quarter 2026. Given my expectation that demand growth in 2026 will be slow, this suggests even if an expansionary pricing cycle were to occur in 2026 due primarily to a contraction in supply, these conditions will be shorter-lived and feature smaller price increases on a percentage basis than what occurred during the 2017–18 and 2020–22 expansionary cycles. Jason Miller is an associate professor of logistics at Michigan State University. Contact him at mill2831@broad.msu.edu .

Truckload

Surface

Separating myth from reality in dry-van truckload capacity

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">If gaps in strategy are visible to informed observers, they will be obvious to the STB, competitors conducting discovery, and shippers evaluating claimed benefits.</div>

If gaps in strategy are visible to informed observers, they will be obvious to the STB, competitors conducting discovery, and shippers evaluating claimed benefits.

<div class="phx-topic">The Union Pacific (UP)-Norfolk Southern (NS) <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/up-in-merger-filing-vows-to-convert-millions-of-loads-to-intermodal-annually-6138380">merger filing</a> delivered a compelling strategic vision for North America’s first transcontinental railroad. Can that vision withstand the US Surface Transportation Board’s (STB’s) operational scrutiny? I support the strategic direction. Network fluidity matters more than geography. Single-line service beats interchange friction. But high-level assertions — 2 million trucks diverted, $1 billion in synergies — must give way to operational specificity during STB’s review. If gaps are visible to informed observers, they will be obvious to the STB, competitors conducting discovery, and shippers evaluating claimed benefits. <h3>Truck diversion requires pricing discipline </h3>Truck diversion sits at the center of the public interest case. The constraint isn’t visibility — it’s pricing authority. Rail organizations centralize pricing to protect margins. That works poorly for winning truck traffic, where conversion often requires pricing at truck parity initially. Lane-level freight analytics now provide intelligence on truck-dense corridors. The question is whether UP-NS will push pricing authority closer to customers or maintain centralized control that rejects opportunities even when incremental economics are positive. <h3>TTX ownership raises competitive questions </h3>Post-merger, a single entity will control approximately 40% of TTX Company, which operates North America’s largest pooled equipment fleet. TTX preserves competitive neutrality — each railroad accesses the same equipment at the same rates. When one party gains disproportionate ownership, incentives change. UP committed to reducing its stake to not greater than 50%, addressing ownership concentration but leaving governance and allocation questions unresolved. BNSF and CSX depend on TTX access. Preferential allocation will generate STB-imposed conditions. <h3>Port gateway competition will intensify </h3>Single-line transcontinental service will change port gateway economics. Routing becomes discretionary rather than fixed by interchange patterns. Ports compete on performance — dwell time, chassis availability, terminal velocity — not geographic proximity. This benefits high-performing ports on transcontinental lanes while exposing underperforming gateways. A container at Los Angeles-Long Beach bound for Ohio no longer requires a UP-to-NS interchange in Chicago. But only if the LA terminal delivers consistent turn times and equipment access. Gulf ports gain optionality. Southern California faces pressure to improve. For secondary East Coast ports, the shift toward performance-based routing represents an opportunity rather than a threat — provided they leverage their relative flexibility to deliver superior asset fluidity and tighter rail coordination. <h3>Container repositioning economics change </h3>Transcontinental service transforms empty container repositioning. Today’s import-export imbalances require costly empty moves across railroads with different commercial incentives. A unified network can optimize repositioning system-wide. Containers arriving in LA can reposition to southern export markets through single-line moves. This improves equipment utilization and reduces empty miles — but only if commercial incentives align with operational optimization. The question is whether UP-NS will price repositioning to maximize container turns or protect lane-specific margins. <h3>Regulatory framework demands enhanced competition </h3>This is the first Class I merger under the STB’s 2001 standards, which require mergers to affirmatively enhance competition — not merely avoid reducing it. UP-NS must demonstrate that the combined network creates competitive options that didn’t previously exist. The STB must also consider whether approving UP-NS makes BNSF-CSX consolidation inevitable. UP-NS requested an accelerated 345-day review. CSX objected and pushed for the full 485-day period. The timing decision signals how seriously the STB takes enhanced competition requirements. <h3>What the STB must ask </h3>If I were sitting on the STB, I would require specific answers: Identify the top 50 truck-to-rail conversion lanes with corridor-level economics, origin-destination pairs, truck versus rail rates, transit times and conversion timelines. Not aggregated projections — specific commitments. Describe the pricing authority structure. Who can price truck-competitive moves at truck parity? If pricing remains centralized for margin protection, explain how that enables rather than inhibits conversion. Provide TTX governance proposals that preserve competitive neutrality. How will equipment allocation transparency prevent self-preferencing when one entity controls 40% ownership? Identify which ports gain and lose volume under optimized transcontinental routing. What performance criteria determine gateway selection? Explain how container repositioning economics change. Will empty moves be priced to optimize system utilization or protect lane-specific margins? <h3>Execution determines outcomes </h3>UP’s filing establishes strategic direction. The STB process will force operational specificity. Discovery, testimony and cross-examination will test whether truck diversion claims rest on corridor-level economics, whether TTX governance preserves competitive neutrality and whether claimed synergies create value or redistribute it. My support for this merger depends on seeing genuine specificity emerge — not strategic ambiguity preserved through vague assurances. The direction is sound. The proof must follow. Paul Tonsager has held executive roles at Maersk, CN Rail, CN Worldwide, Coyote (RXO) and Patriot Rail. He is the founder of Integrated Multimodal Solutions LLC and author of the Substack newsletter Signals &amp; Switches. Contact him at <a href="mailto:paul.tonsager@multimodalsolutions.io">paul.tonsager@multimodalsolutions.io</a>. </div>

The Union Pacific (UP)-Norfolk Southern (NS) merger filing delivered a compelling strategic vision for North America’s first transcontinental railroad. Can that vision withstand the US Surface Transportation Board’s (STB’s) operational scrutiny? I support the strategic direction. Network fluidity matters more than geography. Single-line service beats interchange friction. But high-level assertions — 2 million trucks diverted, $1 billion in synergies — must give way to operational specificity during STB’s review. If gaps are visible to informed observers, they will be obvious to the STB, competitors conducting discovery, and shippers evaluating claimed benefits. Truck diversion requires pricing discipline Truck diversion sits at the center of the public interest case. The constraint isn’t visibility — it’s pricing authority. Rail organizations centralize pricing to protect margins. That works poorly for winning truck traffic, where conversion often requires pricing at truck parity initially. Lane-level freight analytics now provide intelligence on truck-dense corridors. The question is whether UP-NS will push pricing authority closer to customers or maintain centralized control that rejects opportunities even when incremental economics are positive. TTX ownership raises competitive questions Post-merger, a single entity will control approximately 40% of TTX Company, which operates North America’s largest pooled equipment fleet. TTX preserves competitive neutrality — each railroad accesses the same equipment at the same rates. When one party gains disproportionate ownership, incentives change. UP committed to reducing its stake to not greater than 50%, addressing ownership concentration but leaving governance and allocation questions unresolved. BNSF and CSX depend on TTX access. Preferential allocation will generate STB-imposed conditions. Port gateway competition will intensify Single-line transcontinental service will change port gateway economics. Routing becomes discretionary rather than fixed by interchange patterns. Ports compete on performance — dwell time, chassis availability, terminal velocity — not geographic proximity. This benefits high-performing ports on transcontinental lanes while exposing underperforming gateways. A container at Los Angeles-Long Beach bound for Ohio no longer requires a UP-to-NS interchange in Chicago. But only if the LA terminal delivers consistent turn times and equipment access. Gulf ports gain optionality. Southern California faces pressure to improve. For secondary East Coast ports, the shift toward performance-based routing represents an opportunity rather than a threat — provided they leverage their relative flexibility to deliver superior asset fluidity and tighter rail coordination. Container repositioning economics change Transcontinental service transforms empty container repositioning. Today’s import-export imbalances require costly empty moves across railroads with different commercial incentives. A unified network can optimize repositioning system-wide. Containers arriving in LA can reposition to southern export markets through single-line moves. This improves equipment utilization and reduces empty miles — but only if commercial incentives align with operational optimization. The question is whether UP-NS will price repositioning to maximize container turns or protect lane-specific margins. Regulatory framework demands enhanced competition This is the first Class I merger under the STB’s 2001 standards, which require mergers to affirmatively enhance competition — not merely avoid reducing it. UP-NS must demonstrate that the combined network creates competitive options that didn’t previously exist. The STB must also consider whether approving UP-NS makes BNSF-CSX consolidation inevitable. UP-NS requested an accelerated 345-day review. CSX objected and pushed for the full 485-day period. The timing decision signals how seriously the STB takes enhanced competition requirements. What the STB must ask If I were sitting on the STB, I would require specific answers: Identify the top 50 truck-to-rail conversion lanes with corridor-level economics, origin-destination pairs, truck versus rail rates, transit times and conversion timelines. Not aggregated projections — specific commitments. Describe the pricing authority structure. Who can price truck-competitive moves at truck parity? If pricing remains centralized for margin protection, explain how that enables rather than inhibits conversion. Provide TTX governance proposals that preserve competitive neutrality. How will equipment allocation transparency prevent self-preferencing when one entity controls 40% ownership? Identify which ports gain and lose volume under optimized transcontinental routing. What performance criteria determine gateway selection? Explain how container repositioning economics change. Will empty moves be priced to optimize system utilization or protect lane-specific margins? Execution determines outcomes UP’s filing establishes strategic direction. The STB process will force operational specificity. Discovery, testimony and cross-examination will test whether truck diversion claims rest on corridor-level economics, whether TTX governance preserves competitive neutrality and whether claimed synergies create value or redistribute it. My support for this merger depends on seeing genuine specificity emerge — not strategic ambiguity preserved through vague assurances. The direction is sound. The proof must follow. Paul Tonsager has held executive roles at Maersk, CN Rail, CN Worldwide, Coyote (RXO) and Patriot Rail. He is the founder of Integrated Multimodal Solutions LLC and author of the Substack newsletter Signals & Switches. Contact him at paul.tonsager@multimodalsolutions.io .

Intermodal providers

Strategic vision of UP-NS merger must meet operational reality

 Actual capacity

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Planned capacity

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eeSea collects and centralizes liner network data from dozens of public sources including carriers’ vessel tracking portals, long-term schedules, customer advisories, port and terminal operator schedules, and pilot schedules. These disparate datasets are continually inspected, cleaned, and carefully structured. eeSea synthesizes this refined public data with AIS positions from a third-party provider and its datasets spanning schedule reliability, transit times, trade capacity evolution, and 60-day vessel forecasts. Capacity is measured based on the last load port in Europe. [eeSea](https://www.eesea.com)

North Europe to US East and Gulf coasts container capacity (eeSea)

Northern Europe to US East and Gulf Coasts Container Capacity and Deployment (eeSea) Gateway

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The carrier is now including calls at Malta, Port Said (Egypt) and Beirut on the weekly Medex itinerary, replacing Valencia and Barcelona in Spain and For-sur-Mer in France.</div>

The carrier is now including calls at Malta, Port Said (Egypt) and Beirut on the weekly Medex itinerary, replacing Valencia and Barcelona in Spain and For-sur-Mer in France.

<div class="phx-topic">CMA CGM has reorganized the port rotation of its India-Middle East-West Mediterranean “Medex” service that it switched over <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/cma-cgm-unveils-plans-for-suez-return-on-india-mediterranean-service-6012039">to a Red Sea schedule in June</a>. The carrier is now including calls at Malta, Port Said (Egypt) and Beirut on the weekly Medex itinerary, replacing Valencia and Barcelona in Spain and For-sur-Mer in France. “As part of this enhancement, the overall rotation duration will be reduced from 70 days to 63 days..,” CMA CGM (India) said in a customer advisory. “This optimization will enable more frequent sailings and enhanced capacity through additional departures, thereby offering greater flexibility and improved connectivity.” The carrier said it will continue to serve the three dropped ports of call via transshipment. The full updated rotation is Abu Dhabi, Jebel Ali, Mundra, Nhava Sheva, Colombo, Jeddah, Port Said, Piraeus, Malta, Genoa, Beirut, Port Said, Jeddah and back to Abu Dhabi. For Indian loads, the changes are due to begin with the CMA CGM Pelleas that has an estimated time of arrival of Jan. 7 in Mundra. The revised rotation allows the carrier to run the string with nine vessels, compared with the 10 ships it needed to deploy previously. Cosco Shipping has a slot charter deal with CMA CGM on the Medex, with space allotments pegged at approximately 1,000 TEUs out of India per week. India-Mediterranean trades have been the target of a new crop of opportunistic regional carriers over the past year, especially multiple Turkish lines and some others backed by non-vessel-operating common carriers. The new entrants have caused serious market share setbacks for traditional mainline heavyweights, particularly CMA CGM. <h3>Spot rates fall on capacity boost </h3>With the Medex’s enhanced capacity, signs of a downward correction in rates are emerging. Sources have reported a sharp drop in spot rates for loads from Nhava Sheva to Port Said for late-January CMA CGM sailings — down to $2,350 per TEU and $2,300 per FEU, from $3,250 and $2,800, respectively, quoted for early-January sailings. On a broader note, the Medex rotation reset comes as CMA CGM is set to resume Suez Canal transits for its India-US East Coast “Indamex” loop from next month, although it is believed that the carrier still needs to position two more vessels in India to offer a weekly rotation under the normal itinerary. Contact Bency Mathew at <a href="mailto:bencyvmathew@gmail.com">bencyvmathew@gmail.com</a>. </div>

CMA CGM has reorganized the port rotation of its India-Middle East-West Mediterranean “Medex” service that it switched over to a Red Sea schedule in June . The carrier is now including calls at Malta, Port Said (Egypt) and Beirut on the weekly Medex itinerary, replacing Valencia and Barcelona in Spain and For-sur-Mer in France. “As part of this enhancement, the overall rotation duration will be reduced from 70 days to 63 days..,” CMA CGM (India) said in a customer advisory. “This optimization will enable more frequent sailings and enhanced capacity through additional departures, thereby offering greater flexibility and improved connectivity.” The carrier said it will continue to serve the three dropped ports of call via transshipment. The full updated rotation is Abu Dhabi, Jebel Ali, Mundra, Nhava Sheva, Colombo, Jeddah, Port Said, Piraeus, Malta, Genoa, Beirut, Port Said, Jeddah and back to Abu Dhabi. For Indian loads, the changes are due to begin with the CMA CGM Pelleas that has an estimated time of arrival of Jan. 7 in Mundra. The revised rotation allows the carrier to run the string with nine vessels, compared with the 10 ships it needed to deploy previously. Cosco Shipping has a slot charter deal with CMA CGM on the Medex, with space allotments pegged at approximately 1,000 TEUs out of India per week. India-Mediterranean trades have been the target of a new crop of opportunistic regional carriers over the past year, especially multiple Turkish lines and some others backed by non-vessel-operating common carriers. The new entrants have caused serious market share setbacks for traditional mainline heavyweights, particularly CMA CGM. Spot rates fall on capacity boost With the Medex’s enhanced capacity, signs of a downward correction in rates are emerging. Sources have reported a sharp drop in spot rates for loads from Nhava Sheva to Port Said for late-January CMA CGM sailings — down to $2,350 per TEU and $2,300 per FEU, from $3,250 and $2,800, respectively, quoted for early-January sailings. On a broader note, the Medex rotation reset comes as CMA CGM is set to resume Suez Canal transits for its India-US East Coast “Indamex” loop from next month, although it is believed that the carrier still needs to position two more vessels in India to offer a weekly rotation under the normal itinerary. Contact Bency Mathew at bencyvmathew@gmail.com .

CMA CGM reworks India-Med loop rotation to streamline Red Sea operations

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Current anti-trust protections “have enabled foreign-owned shipping lines to exert disproportionate control over pricing and service levels” in Australia’s maritime industry, the head of a leading shipper group in the country says. </div>

Current anti-trust protections “have enabled foreign-owned shipping lines to exert disproportionate control over pricing and service levels” in Australia’s maritime industry, the head of a leading shipper group in the country says.

<div class="phx-topic">Shipper groups in Australia will urge the abolition of ocean carrier anti-trust immunity and the implementation of legal controls on port and related fees in their submission to a government inquiry into productivity within the country’s maritime and logistics sectors. While groups are still drafting their filing, Paul Zalai, director of the Freight &amp; Trade Alliance (FTA), said the focus will be on the two most contentious issues facing shippers in Australia. “The FTA and the Australian Peak Shippers Association [ASPA] consider both the end of anti-trust immunity and the introduction of a mandatory port-related fees code central to improving productivity, resilience and competitiveness in Australia’s freight supply chains,” Zalai told the Journal of Commerce. Current anti-trust protections “have enabled foreign-owned shipping lines to exert disproportionate control over pricing and service levels, stifling competition, raising costs, and undermining supply chain resilience in our trade-dependent economy,” Zalai said. On the matter of landside fees, Zalai said terminal and container park operators should charge their direct shipping line customers, who can then decide whether to absorb the fees or recover the costs from importers, exporters and freight forwarders. “But under current arrangements, stevedores and container parks impose incontestable landside fees directly on road and rail transport operators, bypassing normal commercial negotiation and distorting market dynamics,” he said. The FTA and ASPA, which together represent more than 550 businesses and trade bodies, were invited to make submissions just before Christmas by a Senate select committee set up to investigate productivity in Australian industry. Filings are due by Feb. 20, with a report scheduled for release by Sept. 30. Explaining the rationale for the probe, the Senate said that “global and domestic freight disruptions continue to destabilize the supply chain, leading to congestion, delays and higher costs.” Among the issues the Senate committee will consider are whether harmonized freight and logistics regulations would better support Australia’s economy; how disrupted freight supply chains have impacted Australia’s infrastructure resilience; and how fit-for-purpose freight infrastructure can encourage productivity growth. Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>. </div>

Shipper groups in Australia will urge the abolition of ocean carrier anti-trust immunity and the implementation of legal controls on port and related fees in their submission to a government inquiry into productivity within the country’s maritime and logistics sectors. While groups are still drafting their filing, Paul Zalai, director of the Freight & Trade Alliance (FTA), said the focus will be on the two most contentious issues facing shippers in Australia. “The FTA and the Australian Peak Shippers Association [ASPA] consider both the end of anti-trust immunity and the introduction of a mandatory port-related fees code central to improving productivity, resilience and competitiveness in Australia’s freight supply chains,” Zalai told the Journal of Commerce. Current anti-trust protections “have enabled foreign-owned shipping lines to exert disproportionate control over pricing and service levels, stifling competition, raising costs, and undermining supply chain resilience in our trade-dependent economy,” Zalai said. On the matter of landside fees, Zalai said terminal and container park operators should charge their direct shipping line customers, who can then decide whether to absorb the fees or recover the costs from importers, exporters and freight forwarders. “But under current arrangements, stevedores and container parks impose incontestable landside fees directly on road and rail transport operators, bypassing normal commercial negotiation and distorting market dynamics,” he said. The FTA and ASPA, which together represent more than 550 businesses and trade bodies, were invited to make submissions just before Christmas by a Senate select committee set up to investigate productivity in Australian industry. Filings are due by Feb. 20, with a report scheduled for release by Sept. 30. Explaining the rationale for the probe, the Senate said that “global and domestic freight disruptions continue to destabilize the supply chain, leading to congestion, delays and higher costs.” Among the issues the Senate committee will consider are whether harmonized freight and logistics regulations would better support Australia’s economy; how disrupted freight supply chains have impacted Australia’s infrastructure resilience; and how fit-for-purpose freight infrastructure can encourage productivity growth. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

Australian shippers call for end to ocean carrier anti-trust immunity

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Hapag-Lloyd’s investment in the Aracruz terminal project in Brazil is part of a plan announced by CEO Rolf Habben Jansen last March to expand the carrier’s ports network to more than 30 terminals by 2030.</div>

Hapag-Lloyd’s investment in the Aracruz terminal project in Brazil is part of a plan announced by CEO Rolf Habben Jansen last March to expand the carrier’s ports network to more than 30 terminals by 2030.

<div class="phx-topic">Hapag-Lloyd and Ocean Network Express (ONE) are expanding their container terminal portfolios with separate deals for facilities in Brazil and China, the carriers announced Tuesday. In Brazil, Hanseatic Global Terminals, Hapag-Lloyd’s ports division, has signed a joint venture agreement with the Imetame Group to take a 50% stake in Imetame Logística Porto (ILP), which focuses on container terminal operations. Under the deal, Hanseatic and Imetame will build and operate the 1.2 million-TEU capacity Hanseatic Global Terminals Aracruz container terminal at Aracruz in Brazil’s Espírito Santo state, about 310 miles north of Rio de Janeiro. The two companies declined to disclose the cost of the project, although local sources estimated the terminal would cost $486 million to build. The facility, with 2,461 feet of quay and water depth of 56 feet, is expected to start operations in mid-2028 and handle breakbulk in addition to containerized cargo. “Latin America is a key strategic market for Hanseatic Global Terminals and Hapag-Lloyd,” Dheeraj Bhatia, Hanseatic Global Terminals CEO, said in a statement. “Our joint venture with the Imetame Group and the development of a new transshipment hub and gateway port on Brazil’s east coast strengthens our terminal portfolio while addressing capacity constraints in a growth region.” Operations at some of Brazil’s existing ports, including Santos and Navegantes, are often disrupted due to bad weather, congestion and port construction work, according to advisories published by Hapag-Lloyd and forwarder Kuehne + Nagel. The investment in the Aracruz terminal project is part of a Hapag-Lloyd plan announced by CEO Rolf Habben Jansen last March to expand its ports network to more than 30 terminals by 2030. <h3>ONE extends terminal holdings </h3>Meanwhile, ONE has bolstered its container terminals portfolio after signing a deal to take a minority stake in Dalian Container Terminal (DCT) in northern China, the Singapore-headquartered carrier said. ONE did not disclose how large its interest will be, but the Dalian deal will add to its network that includes stakes in terminals in Los Angeles, Oakland, Rotterdam and Singapore. “This acquisition of a minority stake aligns with our strategy of ensuring access at key regional ports,” Hiroki Tsujii, global chief officer of ONE’s product and network division, said in a statement. “The ownership stake allows us to collaborate with DCT and contribute to its continued infrastructure development and green terminal initiatives.” DCT is one of the biggest container terminals in the region, with 14 container berths, a total quay length of 14,400 feet, and annual handling capacity of 6.6 million TEUs. Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>.</div>

Hapag-Lloyd and Ocean Network Express (ONE) are expanding their container terminal portfolios with separate deals for facilities in Brazil and China, the carriers announced Tuesday. In Brazil, Hanseatic Global Terminals, Hapag-Lloyd’s ports division, has signed a joint venture agreement with the Imetame Group to take a 50% stake in Imetame Logística Porto (ILP), which focuses on container terminal operations. Under the deal, Hanseatic and Imetame will build and operate the 1.2 million-TEU capacity Hanseatic Global Terminals Aracruz container terminal at Aracruz in Brazil’s Espírito Santo state, about 310 miles north of Rio de Janeiro. The two companies declined to disclose the cost of the project, although local sources estimated the terminal would cost $486 million to build. The facility, with 2,461 feet of quay and water depth of 56 feet, is expected to start operations in mid-2028 and handle breakbulk in addition to containerized cargo. “Latin America is a key strategic market for Hanseatic Global Terminals and Hapag-Lloyd,” Dheeraj Bhatia, Hanseatic Global Terminals CEO, said in a statement. “Our joint venture with the Imetame Group and the development of a new transshipment hub and gateway port on Brazil’s east coast strengthens our terminal portfolio while addressing capacity constraints in a growth region.” Operations at some of Brazil’s existing ports, including Santos and Navegantes, are often disrupted due to bad weather, congestion and port construction work, according to advisories published by Hapag-Lloyd and forwarder Kuehne + Nagel. The investment in the Aracruz terminal project is part of a Hapag-Lloyd plan announced by CEO Rolf Habben Jansen last March to expand its ports network to more than 30 terminals by 2030. ONE extends terminal holdings Meanwhile, ONE has bolstered its container terminals portfolio after signing a deal to take a minority stake in Dalian Container Terminal (DCT) in northern China, the Singapore-headquartered carrier said. ONE did not disclose how large its interest will be, but the Dalian deal will add to its network that includes stakes in terminals in Los Angeles, Oakland, Rotterdam and Singapore. “This acquisition of a minority stake aligns with our strategy of ensuring access at key regional ports,” Hiroki Tsujii, global chief officer of ONE’s product and network division, said in a statement. “The ownership stake allows us to collaborate with DCT and contribute to its continued infrastructure development and green terminal initiatives.” DCT is one of the biggest container terminals in the region, with 14 container berths, a total quay length of 14,400 feet, and annual handling capacity of 6.6 million TEUs. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

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Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) has long been the backbone of global commerce, quietly facilitating trillions in transactions. Yet, despite its critical role, traditional EDI has remained notoriously complex, labor-intensive, viewed as antique, and costly. Companies have historically grappled with cumbersome mapping processes, intricate partner-specific logic, and extended onboarding timelines. Now, as industries increasingly adopt agile digital frameworks, the limitations of conventional EDI solutions have become glaringly apparent. Enter Mosaic, an innovative solution unveiled by Orderful, which promises to radically streamline and modernize EDI integration through artificial intelligence. Orderful, already recognized for simplifying supply chain data exchanges, has now introduced Mosaic as the first AI-enriched EDI integration product that completely removes traditional mapping processes. At its core, Mosaic represents a fundamental shift from legacy EDI protocols, replacing archaic, code-heavy formats such as X12 and EDIFACT with modern, easy to use JSON inputs oriented around system-of-record concepts. This alone significantly lowers the barrier to integration, allowing teams accustomed to modern SaaS API development to seamlessly adopt EDI workflows. Mosaic's AI-powered engine ingests and interprets trading partner requirements as well as millions of actual transactions to build reliable, reuseable, self-healing integration which translating data into partner-specific formats without manual intervention. Such automated adaptability is unprecedented in the EDI landscape and promises a marked reduction in implementation timelines, from what once took months or even years, down to mere weeks. Erik Kiser, founder and CEO of Orderful, understands firsthand the pain points of traditional EDI. Having built integrations himself early in his career, Kiser founded Orderful specifically to address the persistent challenges that frustrate businesses across the supply chain. "Nobody has been more frustrated by EDI than I have," Kiser notes candidly. "Those experiences are precisely why Orderful and now Mosaic exist." Mosaic further distinguishes itself by embedding real-time validation and debugging, streamlining error resolution from lengthy processes into rapid, straightforward fixes. Developers, traditionally burdened by the complexities of partner-specific requirements and intricate coding standards, now gain an intuitive, self-service environment. This reduction in complexity not only accelerates implementation but also reduces operational overhead, offering critical advantages in today’s fast-paced business environment. Brian Roberts, general partner at Andreessen Horowitz and Orderful board member, underscores Mosaic's industry impact: "Mosaic has taken one of the most entrenched bottlenecks in enterprise technology, EDI mapping, and replaced it with an AI-native product that adapts automatically. It’s exactly the type of innovation the industry has been missing." While Mosaic initially supports the complete Order-to-Cash lifecycle, covering purchase orders, acknowledgments, shipping notices, and invoices, the platform is designed for continuous growth and expansion. Orderful sees Mosaic not merely as a product but as a foundational architecture poised to support a broader range of data flows and integrations, aligning perfectly with the scalable requirements of global businesses. “The underlying unified data model not only lets us act as the universal connector, but also enables us to build product once that applies to all partners. This includes EDI functionality like order splitting and consolidation, but also unlocks powerful analytics and insights for our customers to help them grow their business,” said Will Benish, principal product manager at Orderful. Security and reliability are integral to Mosaic’s infrastructure, evidenced by SOC 2 Type II compliance and OAuth 2.0 integration. Additionally, the platform guarantees robust performance, boasting sub-second transaction speeds and immediate access to an extensive network of over 10,000 trading partners. For businesses already utilizing Orderful, Mosaic offers a seamless upgrade pathway, allowing organizations to embrace the future of EDI without disrupting their current trading partner relationships. New clients will find Mosaic’s approach refreshingly modern, providing immediate gains in speed, ease of integration, and scalability. Mosaic represents more than just an incremental improvement; it's a visionary leap forward in how enterprises manage and leverage supply chain data. As businesses grapple with increasingly complex global supply networks, Orderful’s Mosaic emerges as a timely and essential tool, providing clarity, agility, and unprecedented simplicity. Mosaic elevates EDI, providing businesses with a streamlined and efficient pathway to rapidly integrate, adapt, and scale in today's dynamic market. “Mosaic wouldn’t have been possible to build even three years ago. The work our team has put in has been extraordinary, combining cutting edge AI techniques with our deep experience with EDI and our rich library of trading partner guidelines and requirements,” said Benish. To learn more about how Mosaic can transform your EDI capabilities and streamline your integration processes or request a demonstration at <a href="https://www.orderful.com/product/mosaic" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">www.orderful.com/product/mosaic</a>.

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<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">With vessel capacity outstripping volumes on the major trade lanes, analysts expect carriers to fall into the red as early as the first quarter, culminating in a multi-billion-dollar combined loss for the full year. </div>

With vessel capacity outstripping volumes on the major trade lanes, analysts expect carriers to fall into the red as early as the first quarter, culminating in a multi-billion-dollar combined loss for the full year.

<div class="phx-topic">The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook. The big picture: A growing imbalance between supply and demand will bring the container shipping industry’s five-year profitability voyage to an end in 2026. With vessel capacity outstripping volumes on the major trade lanes, analysts expect carriers to fall into the red as early as the first quarter, culminating in a multi-billion-dollar combined loss for the full year. A look back: The US tariff mayhem from the Trump administration severely disrupted container shipping on the trans-Pacific, particularly between the US and China. A tit-for-tat, stop-and-go escalation of the trade war between Washington and Beijing led to significant frontloading of US imports and, in turn, a harsher-than-usual slowdown in the final months of 2025. On the Asia-Europe trade lane, a different kind of frontloading caused peak season to begin in May, rather than June. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6143172_0.1.jpg"></img></div>Shippers concerned about longer transit times around southern Africa — in place since the Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea began in late 2023 — moved their imports a month earlier than normal to make sure goods made it on the shelves in time for summer, and strong demand continued through July before beginning to slide in September. Even with a fourth-quarter volume downturn, carriers were on pace to report a combined $20 billion profit in 2025, according to Drewry Shipping Consultants. A look ahead: With that depressed demand expected to linger into 2026, Drewry is forecasting a $10 billion container shipping industry loss for the year. Typically, volumes on the east-west trades out of Asia swell in January as shippers look to restock prior to Lunar New Year celebrations, during which factories in China slow or halt production for two weeks. This year, Asia-Europe forwarders are reporting relatively solid bookings for the month, but trans-Pacific forwarders are skeptical they will see any appreciable growth. The lackluster pre-Lunar New Year demand bodes poorly for the rest of the year, and maritime analysts expect the growing supply-demand imbalance to undermine efforts to raise rates. Global fleet capacity will grow 2.2% to 33.7 million TEUs in 2026, according to Drewry, while global container volumes will rise between 2.5% and 3.5%, according to a forecast from shipowner association Bimco. But the imbalance will be far more apparent on the trans-Pacific. With US retailers keeping inventories lean amid uncertain consumer sentiment and ever-changing tariff policy, Moody’s Ratings forecasts US container volumes will be flat to down 2% compared with 2025. The next inflection: The diversion of container ships away from the Suez Canal mitigated what would have been a significant capacity overhang over the past three years. But analysts warn that if carriers return to the much-faster Suez transits — the likelihood of which increases the longer the Israel-Hamas ceasefire holds — the resulting vessel bunching at ports in Europe will likewise tie up a significant amount of capacity. Those bottlenecks could take months to clear, putting upward pressure on rates and giving carriers some relief from an otherwise bleak earnings outlook. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook. The big picture: A growing imbalance between supply and demand will bring the container shipping industry’s five-year profitability voyage to an end in 2026. With vessel capacity outstripping volumes on the major trade lanes, analysts expect carriers to fall into the red as early as the first quarter, culminating in a multi-billion-dollar combined loss for the full year. A look back: The US tariff mayhem from the Trump administration severely disrupted container shipping on the trans-Pacific, particularly between the US and China. A tit-for-tat, stop-and-go escalation of the trade war between Washington and Beijing led to significant frontloading of US imports and, in turn, a harsher-than-usual slowdown in the final months of 2025. On the Asia-Europe trade lane, a different kind of frontloading caused peak season to begin in May, rather than June. Shippers concerned about longer transit times around southern Africa — in place since the Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea began in late 2023 — moved their imports a month earlier than normal to make sure goods made it on the shelves in time for summer, and strong demand continued through July before beginning to slide in September. Even with a fourth-quarter volume downturn, carriers were on pace to report a combined $20 billion profit in 2025, according to Drewry Shipping Consultants. A look ahead: With that depressed demand expected to linger into 2026, Drewry is forecasting a $10 billion container shipping industry loss for the year. Typically, volumes on the east-west trades out of Asia swell in January as shippers look to restock prior to Lunar New Year celebrations, during which factories in China slow or halt production for two weeks. This year, Asia-Europe forwarders are reporting relatively solid bookings for the month, but trans-Pacific forwarders are skeptical they will see any appreciable growth. The lackluster pre-Lunar New Year demand bodes poorly for the rest of the year, and maritime analysts expect the growing supply-demand imbalance to undermine efforts to raise rates. Global fleet capacity will grow 2.2% to 33.7 million TEUs in 2026, according to Drewry, while global container volumes will rise between 2.5% and 3.5%, according to a forecast from shipowner association Bimco. But the imbalance will be far more apparent on the trans-Pacific. With US retailers keeping inventories lean amid uncertain consumer sentiment and ever-changing tariff policy, Moody’s Ratings forecasts US container volumes will be flat to down 2% compared with 2025. The next inflection: The diversion of container ships away from the Suez Canal mitigated what would have been a significant capacity overhang over the past three years. But analysts warn that if carriers return to the much-faster Suez transits — the likelihood of which increases the longer the Israel-Hamas ceasefire holds — the resulting vessel bunching at ports in Europe will likewise tie up a significant amount of capacity. Those bottlenecks could take months to clear, putting upward pressure on rates and giving carriers some relief from an otherwise bleak earnings outlook. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Supply-demand imbalance puts ocean carriers on course for heavy losses

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">While Union Pacific plans to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to make a combined railroad run smoothly, there are locations where service could degrade should the merger be approved by federal regulators. </div>

While Union Pacific plans to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to make a combined railroad run smoothly, there are locations where service could degrade should the merger be approved by federal regulators.

<div class="phx-topic">Union Pacific Railroad’s (UP’s) proposed $85 billion acquisition of Norfolk Southern Railway (NS) would set up some shippers for faster transits while others will find that new investments on some routes will come at their expense. UP will spend $507 million for dozens of rail infrastructure upgrades across what would be the newly combined network and $516 million to upgrade or expand a dozen terminals expected to see a surge in containers, automobiles and manifest trains should the merger happen. “To achieve the transit-time improvements on certain routes requires making trade-offs,” Union Pacific wrote in the <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/up-in-merger-filing-vows-to-convert-millions-of-loads-to-intermodal-annually-6138380">formal merger application</a> it filed Dec. 19 with federal regulators. “[This] requires changes that have the opposite impact on a route with less traffic.” Fresh investment will go into supporting a new single-line train from Southern California to New Jersey through Kansas City, bypassing Chicago. At UP’s Inland Empire intermodal terminal in Southern California, daily lifts are projected to rise by approximately 400%. To handle the increase, the railroad plans to invest $58 million there. The Norfolk Southern terminals in Cincinnati and Toledo, Ohio, are expected to see daily lifts more than double within three years of the merger, prompting a combined $52.5 million in planned investment. In Council Bluffs, Iowa, where lifts are projected to increase 163%, UP plans to spend $75.4 million to expand capacity. Track infrastructure supporting the trains also will be upgraded. The combined railroad would invest $136.6 million in infrastructure between Kansas City and Butler, Indiana, to support faster Southern California-Northeast intermodal trains. Another $172.3 million would be spent between New Orleans and Atlanta to strengthen the Laredo and Houston intermodal trains. The money will go to more than two dozen projects to improve the tracks and bridges in those areas to handle the additional post-merger volume. Achieving that vision, however, requires trade-offs that could leave other shippers disadvantaged. Rail rivals have warned about those risks in filings with the US Surface Transportation Board (STB), arguing that UP’s merger application understates the downside. Canadian National Railway said the application omits required market analyses, while CSX Transportation wrote that UP’s growth plan relies on outdated or incomplete data, overemphasizing the benefits while masking where service would degrade. In comments filed with the STB earlier this week, the two railroads asked regulators to deem UP’s application incomplete. The STB must decide whether the application is complete before Jan. 20; if the application is deemed incomplete, UP would need to fix any deficiencies and resubmit the document before regulators can resume their review. <h3>Terminals that could be logjammed </h3>While several intermodal terminals would be expanded post-merger, others will have a sharp increase in volume but receive little or no investment. In Minneapolis, container lifts are projected to increase 343%, yet no terminal upgrades are planned. UP said the intermodal terminal would be overcapacity post-merger, only a few years after <a href="https://www.up.com/news/service/twin-cities-intermodal-it-221212">hundreds of millions</a> were poured into the facility. UP said intermodal volume increased 94% in Minneapolis between 2023 and 2024, but there was “<a href="https://www.up.com/news/growth/twin-cities-intermodal-it-250317">ample capacity remaining for future expansion</a>.” Instead, UP wrote in the application that mitigation in Minneapolis would include working with customers to reduce container dwells and exploring off-site parking options. In Tacoma, Washington, container lifts are expected to rise 44%, also without terminal investment. UP said it would seek to address capacity constraints by coordinating with the terminal operator to extend operating hours. The Tacoma terminal was one location that saw <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/tacoma-marine-terminals-grappling-with-heavy-import-rail-congestion-5706377">a massive influx in international intermodal volume</a> in 2024. At NS’ Croxton terminal in Jersey City, daily lifts would rise 67% but receive only $7.3 million in capital spending. UP said it may reopen NS’ E-Rail terminal in nearby Elizabeth, if necessary. In Atlanta, container lifts at the Austell terminal would increase by 24%. The land-constrained terminal would not receive new capital investments, but UP will revive intermodal operations in Birmingham, Alabama, and NS also owns a smaller yard about 15 minutes away near downtown Atlanta. <h3>Shippers who might not benefit </h3>One group of shippers who would experience longer transits post-merger are those using trains from Southern California to Memphis and St. Louis. UP identified 191 domestic containers per day that will be removed in Greggton, Texas — between Dallas and Shreveport — and transferred to a second train to Memphis and St. Louis post-merger. On an annual basis, nearly 70,000 containers currently moving on a direct train would face at least a four-hour layover. That delay assumes the first and second trains run on time, much like two connecting flights at an airport. UP said the Memphis diversions are necessary to build new expedited intermodal trains over the Meridian Speedway to Atlanta, Charlotte, and Jacksonville, saving shippers between 70 and 96 hours of transit time. The Meridian Speedway itself, a nearly 300-mile corridor linking Shreveport, Louisiana, and Meridian, Mississippi, presents additional uncertainty. UP’s merger application calls for the new trains to average nearly 11,000 feet long, but Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC), which owns 75% of the Meridian joint venture to NS’ 25%, limits train lengths to 8,500 feet. UP acknowledged that Meridian Speedway expedited trains “might be split into a second train,” introducing additional dwell that would cut into the 70- to 96-hour savings. Union Pacific also highlighted how 185 intermodal routes, totaling more than 300,000 containers annually, would see fewer handlings or layovers under a post-merger operating plan. However, UP provided no details on 62 of the routes representing about 20,000 containers that would see additional handling. “Any change to train and blocking plans and any yard or terminal rationalization creates a risk of service degradation to the extent plans are flawed in design or execution,” Union Pacific wrote in its application. “[We] will not make any merger-related changes that cannot be reversed, if necessary.” Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Union Pacific Railroad’s (UP’s) proposed $85 billion acquisition of Norfolk Southern Railway (NS) would set up some shippers for faster transits while others will find that new investments on some routes will come at their expense. UP will spend $507 million for dozens of rail infrastructure upgrades across what would be the newly combined network and $516 million to upgrade or expand a dozen terminals expected to see a surge in containers, automobiles and manifest trains should the merger happen. “To achieve the transit-time improvements on certain routes requires making trade-offs,” Union Pacific wrote in the formal merger application it filed Dec. 19 with federal regulators. “[This] requires changes that have the opposite impact on a route with less traffic.” Fresh investment will go into supporting a new single-line train from Southern California to New Jersey through Kansas City, bypassing Chicago. At UP’s Inland Empire intermodal terminal in Southern California, daily lifts are projected to rise by approximately 400%. To handle the increase, the railroad plans to invest $58 million there. The Norfolk Southern terminals in Cincinnati and Toledo, Ohio, are expected to see daily lifts more than double within three years of the merger, prompting a combined $52.5 million in planned investment. In Council Bluffs, Iowa, where lifts are projected to increase 163%, UP plans to spend $75.4 million to expand capacity. Track infrastructure supporting the trains also will be upgraded. The combined railroad would invest $136.6 million in infrastructure between Kansas City and Butler, Indiana, to support faster Southern California-Northeast intermodal trains. Another $172.3 million would be spent between New Orleans and Atlanta to strengthen the Laredo and Houston intermodal trains. The money will go to more than two dozen projects to improve the tracks and bridges in those areas to handle the additional post-merger volume. Achieving that vision, however, requires trade-offs that could leave other shippers disadvantaged. Rail rivals have warned about those risks in filings with the US Surface Transportation Board (STB), arguing that UP’s merger application understates the downside. Canadian National Railway said the application omits required market analyses, while CSX Transportation wrote that UP’s growth plan relies on outdated or incomplete data, overemphasizing the benefits while masking where service would degrade. In comments filed with the STB earlier this week, the two railroads asked regulators to deem UP’s application incomplete. The STB must decide whether the application is complete before Jan. 20; if the application is deemed incomplete, UP would need to fix any deficiencies and resubmit the document before regulators can resume their review. Terminals that could be logjammed While several intermodal terminals would be expanded post-merger, others will have a sharp increase in volume but receive little or no investment. In Minneapolis, container lifts are projected to increase 343%, yet no terminal upgrades are planned. UP said the intermodal terminal would be overcapacity post-merger, only a few years after hundreds of millions were poured into the facility. UP said intermodal volume increased 94% in Minneapolis between 2023 and 2024, but there was “ ample capacity remaining for future expansion .” Instead, UP wrote in the application that mitigation in Minneapolis would include working with customers to reduce container dwells and exploring off-site parking options. In Tacoma, Washington, container lifts are expected to rise 44%, also without terminal investment. UP said it would seek to address capacity constraints by coordinating with the terminal operator to extend operating hours. The Tacoma terminal was one location that saw a massive influx in international intermodal volume in 2024. At NS’ Croxton terminal in Jersey City, daily lifts would rise 67% but receive only $7.3 million in capital spending. UP said it may reopen NS’ E-Rail terminal in nearby Elizabeth, if necessary. In Atlanta, container lifts at the Austell terminal would increase by 24%. The land-constrained terminal would not receive new capital investments, but UP will revive intermodal operations in Birmingham, Alabama, and NS also owns a smaller yard about 15 minutes away near downtown Atlanta. Shippers who might not benefit One group of shippers who would experience longer transits post-merger are those using trains from Southern California to Memphis and St. Louis. UP identified 191 domestic containers per day that will be removed in Greggton, Texas — between Dallas and Shreveport — and transferred to a second train to Memphis and St. Louis post-merger. On an annual basis, nearly 70,000 containers currently moving on a direct train would face at least a four-hour layover. That delay assumes the first and second trains run on time, much like two connecting flights at an airport. UP said the Memphis diversions are necessary to build new expedited intermodal trains over the Meridian Speedway to Atlanta, Charlotte, and Jacksonville, saving shippers between 70 and 96 hours of transit time. The Meridian Speedway itself, a nearly 300-mile corridor linking Shreveport, Louisiana, and Meridian, Mississippi, presents additional uncertainty. UP’s merger application calls for the new trains to average nearly 11,000 feet long, but Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC), which owns 75% of the Meridian joint venture to NS’ 25%, limits train lengths to 8,500 feet. UP acknowledged that Meridian Speedway expedited trains “might be split into a second train,” introducing additional dwell that would cut into the 70- to 96-hour savings. Union Pacific also highlighted how 185 intermodal routes, totaling more than 300,000 containers annually, would see fewer handlings or layovers under a post-merger operating plan. However, UP provided no details on 62 of the routes representing about 20,000 containers that would see additional handling. “Any change to train and blocking plans and any yard or terminal rationalization creates a risk of service degradation to the extent plans are flawed in design or execution,” Union Pacific wrote in its application. “[We] will not make any merger-related changes that cannot be reversed, if necessary.” Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

UP-NS deal could benefit some shippers, while others face longer transits

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">While container trade between the South Pacific and USEC was flat prior to 2021, it has shown growth since then, albeit from a small base. </div>

While container trade between the South Pacific and USEC was flat prior to 2021, it has shown growth since then, albeit from a small base.

<div class="phx-topic">CMA CGM is launching a new service between the South Pacific and the US East Coast through its new space charter agreement with Maersk. The new service will offer transshipment options for CMA CGM’s standalone trans-Atlantic service to and from Oceania. The carrier said in a statement Tuesday that its new KEA service will begin with the early February departure of the 3,752-TEU Spirit of Melbourne from Sydney, with a South Pacific rotation that includes Melbourne and New Zealand’s Port Chalmers and Tauranga. KEA’s Americas calls include the Panamanian transshipment ports of Balboa and Manzanillo, along with Cartagena in Colombia. KEA will also call Philadelphia and Charleston, with CMA CGM marketing KEA as a “dedicated and fast service for fresh fruits and frozen food from Oceania to the US East Coast.” CMA CGM and Maersk this month filed a space charter agreement with the Federal Maritime Commission for trade between the US East Coast and the South Pacific on <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/maersk-to-resume-panama-canal-transits-on-oc1-service-as-vessel-restrictions-ease-5225404">Maersk’s OC-1 service</a>. The agreement calls for CMA CGM to purchase 350 TEUs, or 4,900 metric tons of space, including 100 reefer plugs, on each roundtrip sailing. CMA CGM said the Maersk-operated KEA service will complement CMA CGM’s existing Panama Direct Line from the South Pacific, with full US East Coast port coverage and transshipment options to ports in Northern Europe. <h3>USEC imports from Oceania growing </h3>While container trade between the South Pacific and US East Coast was flat prior to 2021, it has shown growth since then, albeit from a small base. Between 2021 and 2024, Oceania import volumes to the US East Coast grew at an annual average rate of 5.8%, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, reaching 108,198 TEUs last year. Year to date through November 2025, Oceania imports to the US East Coast have grown 9%, PIERS data shows. Thanks to its dominance in the refrigerated produce trade, Philadelphia has captured almost two-thirds of that market. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

CMA CGM is launching a new service between the South Pacific and the US East Coast through its new space charter agreement with Maersk. The new service will offer transshipment options for CMA CGM’s standalone trans-Atlantic service to and from Oceania. The carrier said in a statement Tuesday that its new KEA service will begin with the early February departure of the 3,752-TEU Spirit of Melbourne from Sydney, with a South Pacific rotation that includes Melbourne and New Zealand’s Port Chalmers and Tauranga. KEA’s Americas calls include the Panamanian transshipment ports of Balboa and Manzanillo, along with Cartagena in Colombia. KEA will also call Philadelphia and Charleston, with CMA CGM marketing KEA as a “dedicated and fast service for fresh fruits and frozen food from Oceania to the US East Coast.” CMA CGM and Maersk this month filed a space charter agreement with the Federal Maritime Commission for trade between the US East Coast and the South Pacific on Maersk’s OC-1 service . The agreement calls for CMA CGM to purchase 350 TEUs, or 4,900 metric tons of space, including 100 reefer plugs, on each roundtrip sailing. CMA CGM said the Maersk-operated KEA service will complement CMA CGM’s existing Panama Direct Line from the South Pacific, with full US East Coast port coverage and transshipment options to ports in Northern Europe. USEC imports from Oceania growing While container trade between the South Pacific and US East Coast was flat prior to 2021, it has shown growth since then, albeit from a small base. Between 2021 and 2024, Oceania import volumes to the US East Coast grew at an annual average rate of 5.8%, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, reaching 108,198 TEUs last year. Year to date through November 2025, Oceania imports to the US East Coast have grown 9%, PIERS data shows. Thanks to its dominance in the refrigerated produce trade, Philadelphia has captured almost two-thirds of that market. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

CMA CGM’s Oceania-US East Coast service to kick off in February

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Months of frontloading explain the sharp volume slowdown in the final months of 2025, and with consumer sentiment weak and long-term trade policies still uncertain, US retailers are keeping inventories lean in early 2026. </div>

Months of frontloading explain the sharp volume slowdown in the final months of 2025, and with consumer sentiment weak and long-term trade policies still uncertain, US retailers are keeping inventories lean in early 2026.

<div class="phx-topic">The big picture: After an earlier-than-usual July peak season caused by tariff-related frontloading, the trans-Pacific trade enters 2026 in the midst of a deepening demand slowdown. Carriers are hoping a traditional pre-Lunar New Year rush will boost volumes and help buoy spot rates on the largest US trade lane, but the chances of a significant uptick are dwindling rapidly. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6143172_0.1.jpg"></img></div>A look back: Ocean container trade between Asia and the US in 2025 was marked primarily by retailers frontloading imports to reduce the pricing impact of Trump administration tariffs. The administration throughout the year issued more than 100 tariff decisions affecting imports from virtually every country in the world, with the largest increases in duty rates on goods made in China. As a result, containerized US imports from Asia grew 3.2% in the first eight months of 2025 before tumbling 8.8% year over year from September through November, according to data from PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. That volatility in volumes was also evident in the two large spikes in spot rates recorded in the first half, both of which were followed by swift declines. Average pricing from Asia to the US West Coast rose above $5,000 per FEU in early January, fell to $1,600 per FEU in March, rose to a 2025 high of $6,000 per FEU in June and then dropped to $1,700 per FEU in July, according to Platts, also part of S&amp;P Global. Starting Oct. 1, carriers launched a series of bimonthly general rate increases (GRIs) in an attempt to prevent spot rates from collapsing, but the effect of each GRI was short-lived, and by mid-December, Asia-US West Coast spot rates had fallen to $1,270 per FEU, the lowest reading since July 2023. A look ahead: Months of frontloading explain the harsh volume slowdown in the final months of 2025, and with consumer sentiment weak and long-term trade policies still uncertain, US retailers are keeping inventories lean in early 2026. Despite a one-year negotiating pause in reciprocal US-China tariffs that began in November, imports from China still face an effective duty rate of 47%. Retailers are placing orders for spring merchandise cautiously, and the typical rush of factory production and container vessel bookings in the lead up to Lunar New Year celebrations in China are expected to fall flat, leaving volumes well below the levels recorded in 2025. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="a04e27f7-b2bc-4d9d-b3cc-b14fb864d836"></dynamic-object></div>Total US imports are forecast to fall 10.3% year over year in January, 8.5% in February, 16.8% in March and 10.9% in April, according to the latest Global Port Tracker from Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation. Carriers have not dismissed the possibility of additional GRIs in the new year, but as in the latter part of 2025, their efforts will be focused more on maintaining a floor on spot rates as opposed to increasing the ceiling. The next inflection: Trans-Pacific carriers and their customers are looking ahead to two possible developments in 2026 that could further depress freight rates: a forecast 4% increase in global container ship capacity and whether carriers will return to regular transits through the Suez Canal, which could increase effective capacity from Asia to the US East Coast. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The big picture: After an earlier-than-usual July peak season caused by tariff-related frontloading, the trans-Pacific trade enters 2026 in the midst of a deepening demand slowdown. Carriers are hoping a traditional pre-Lunar New Year rush will boost volumes and help buoy spot rates on the largest US trade lane, but the chances of a significant uptick are dwindling rapidly. A look back: Ocean container trade between Asia and the US in 2025 was marked primarily by retailers frontloading imports to reduce the pricing impact of Trump administration tariffs. The administration throughout the year issued more than 100 tariff decisions affecting imports from virtually every country in the world, with the largest increases in duty rates on goods made in China. As a result, containerized US imports from Asia grew 3.2% in the first eight months of 2025 before tumbling 8.8% year over year from September through November, according to data from PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. That volatility in volumes was also evident in the two large spikes in spot rates recorded in the first half, both of which were followed by swift declines. Average pricing from Asia to the US West Coast rose above $5,000 per FEU in early January, fell to $1,600 per FEU in March, rose to a 2025 high of $6,000 per FEU in June and then dropped to $1,700 per FEU in July, according to Platts, also part of S&P Global. Starting Oct. 1, carriers launched a series of bimonthly general rate increases (GRIs) in an attempt to prevent spot rates from collapsing, but the effect of each GRI was short-lived, and by mid-December, Asia-US West Coast spot rates had fallen to $1,270 per FEU, the lowest reading since July 2023. A look ahead: Months of frontloading explain the harsh volume slowdown in the final months of 2025, and with consumer sentiment weak and long-term trade policies still uncertain, US retailers are keeping inventories lean in early 2026. Despite a one-year negotiating pause in reciprocal US-China tariffs that began in November, imports from China still face an effective duty rate of 47%. Retailers are placing orders for spring merchandise cautiously, and the typical rush of factory production and container vessel bookings in the lead up to Lunar New Year celebrations in China are expected to fall flat, leaving volumes well below the levels recorded in 2025. Total US imports are forecast to fall 10.3% year over year in January, 8.5% in February, 16.8% in March and 10.9% in April, according to the latest Global Port Tracker from Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation. Carriers have not dismissed the possibility of additional GRIs in the new year, but as in the latter part of 2025, their efforts will be focused more on maintaining a floor on spot rates as opposed to increasing the ceiling. The next inflection: Trans-Pacific carriers and their customers are looking ahead to two possible developments in 2026 that could further depress freight rates: a forecast 4% increase in global container ship capacity and whether carriers will return to regular transits through the Suez Canal, which could increase effective capacity from Asia to the US East Coast. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .

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