<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Stakeholders say a contract with Harbor Industrial Services to manage the state’s only box terminal should herald a new era of stability and cargo growth. </div>

Stakeholders say a contract with Harbor Industrial Services to manage the state’s only box terminal should herald a new era of stability and cargo growth.

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<div class="phx-topic">The formal handover of stevedore management at Portland’s sole container terminal to a third-party operator on Wednesday ensures state agriculture exporters have access to a weekly Asian service after financial challenges threatened the Oregon port. Harbor Industrial Services on Monday took over operation of the port-managed Terminal 6 — now renamed Oregon Container Terminal (OCT) — and will oversee vessel and rail services for importers and exporters in Oregon, southwest Washington State and Idaho. “Securing a long-term operator for container service at Terminal 6 means exporters and importers across the state and region can keep moving their goods efficiently, competitively and closer to home while supporting thousands of family-wage jobs,” Port of Portland Executive Director Curtis Robinhold said during handover ceremonies Wednesday. The port did not provide specifics on the length of the contract with Harbor Industrial Services, only referring to it as a “long-term lease.” SM Line currently serves OCT with a weekly service that brings in imports from Asia such as tires, electronics, furniture and supplies used by businesses in their production processes. The vessels return to Asia with containerized exports such as grain, hay, berries and wood products, according to a statement from the port. Mediterranean Shipping Co. also had a weekly service from Asia to Portland earlier in 2025, but that service was paused due to tariffs and related federal trade policies as the carrier shifted space on the vessels to serve countries where it did not face high fees, the port said. Portland reached a “framework agreement” with Harbor Industrial Services in late 2024 to oversee operation of Terminal 6. The port had registered <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/port-of-portland-strikes-deal-with-stevedore-to-operate-container-terminal-5897345">losses of $26 million from 2023 through 2024.</a><h3>Troublesome venture with first private operator </h3>Portland for more than 30 years was an operating port, but it consistently lost money, and the port signed a lease with Philippine-based ICTSI in 2010 to manage Terminal 6. In a 2015 interview with the Journal of Commerce, Portland Executive Director Bill Wyatt said when the port first went out to bid for a private sector terminal operator, it was <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/outgoing-portland-port-president-predicts-box-service-return-5193131">losing as much as $17 million a year.</a>But the situation did not improve under a private operator. As a <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ilwu-action-disrupts-work-at-portlands-terminal-6-5232355">result of non-stop labor turmoil</a>, Portland <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/sm-line-returns-container-service-to-portland-in-wake-of-ilwu-ruling-5243887">was without a regular liner service for about three years</a> until 2018. Its three carriers pulled out of the port while labor action continued and litigation between ICTSI and the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) dragged on. A costly, decade-long case was settled in February 2024 when the <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ilwu-ictsi-oregon-end-legal-dispute-bankruptcy-case-with-205-million-settlement-5244722">ILWU agreed to pay ICTSI $20.5 million in damages.</a>Container volumes at Terminal 6 suffered during the tumultuous decade. Portland last year through November handled 60,734 laden TEUs, according to PIERS, a Journal of Commerce sister product within S&amp;P Global. That’s a far cry from 2000 to 2005, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/labor-peace-drives-portlands-container-recovery-5245968">when the port handled more than 300,000 TEUs annually</a>, according to PIERS data. “OCT is about reliability, growth and partnership,” OCT President Tim McCarthy said at Wednesday’s ceremonies. “This terminal gives shippers from Oregon and inland locations a stable, efficient and competitive gateway, backed by 210 acres of already-developed infrastructure, experienced operators and a skilled workforce with a proven record of productivity.” “This is one of the good outcomes that can be achieved when government, business and labor work together for the benefit of Oregonians,” said Stuart Strader, speaking on behalf of ILWU Local 8. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The formal handover of stevedore management at Portland’s sole container terminal to a third-party operator on Wednesday ensures state agriculture exporters have access to a weekly Asian service after financial challenges threatened the Oregon port. Harbor Industrial Services on Monday took over operation of the port-managed Terminal 6 — now renamed Oregon Container Terminal (OCT) — and will oversee vessel and rail services for importers and exporters in Oregon, southwest Washington State and Idaho. “Securing a long-term operator for container service at Terminal 6 means exporters and importers across the state and region can keep moving their goods efficiently, competitively and closer to home while supporting thousands of family-wage jobs,” Port of Portland Executive Director Curtis Robinhold said during handover ceremonies Wednesday. The port did not provide specifics on the length of the contract with Harbor Industrial Services, only referring to it as a “long-term lease.” SM Line currently serves OCT with a weekly service that brings in imports from Asia such as tires, electronics, furniture and supplies used by businesses in their production processes. The vessels return to Asia with containerized exports such as grain, hay, berries and wood products, according to a statement from the port. Mediterranean Shipping Co. also had a weekly service from Asia to Portland earlier in 2025, but that service was paused due to tariffs and related federal trade policies as the carrier shifted space on the vessels to serve countries where it did not face high fees, the port said. Portland reached a “framework agreement” with Harbor Industrial Services in late 2024 to oversee operation of Terminal 6. The port had registered losses of $26 million from 2023 through 2024. Troublesome venture with first private operator Portland for more than 30 years was an operating port, but it consistently lost money, and the port signed a lease with Philippine-based ICTSI in 2010 to manage Terminal 6. In a 2015 interview with the Journal of Commerce, Portland Executive Director Bill Wyatt said when the port first went out to bid for a private sector terminal operator, it was losing as much as $17 million a year. But the situation did not improve under a private operator. As a result of non-stop labor turmoil , Portland was without a regular liner service for about three years until 2018. Its three carriers pulled out of the port while labor action continued and litigation between ICTSI and the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) dragged on. A costly, decade-long case was settled in February 2024 when the ILWU agreed to pay ICTSI $20.5 million in damages. Container volumes at Terminal 6 suffered during the tumultuous decade. Portland last year through November handled 60,734 laden TEUs, according to PIERS, a Journal of Commerce sister product within S&P Global. That’s a far cry from 2000 to 2005, when the port handled more than 300,000 TEUs annually , according to PIERS data. “OCT is about reliability, growth and partnership,” OCT President Tim McCarthy said at Wednesday’s ceremonies. “This terminal gives shippers from Oregon and inland locations a stable, efficient and competitive gateway, backed by 210 acres of already-developed infrastructure, experienced operators and a skilled workforce with a proven record of productivity.” “This is one of the good outcomes that can be achieved when government, business and labor work together for the benefit of Oregonians,” said Stuart Strader, speaking on behalf of ILWU Local 8. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .

Port News

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Trans-Pacific

North American ports

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Container Shipping News

Maritime

Operator switch gives renewed hope to Portland’s Terminal 6

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The action is tied to WiseTech’s acquisition of E2open in 2025, which included software that Australia’s competition commission deemed gave WiseTech too much control of the market.</div>

The action is tied to WiseTech’s acquisition of E2open in 2025, which included software that Australia’s competition commission deemed gave WiseTech too much control of the market.

<div class="phx-topic">Australian regulators are forcing WiseTech Global to sell an Oceania-based customs and forwarding software unit it took over as part of its $2.1 billion <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/wisetech-notches-biggest-acquisition-with-21-billion-deal-for-e2open-6011581">acquisition of E2open</a> in mid-2025. The company, Expedient, was initially acquired by BluJay Solutions in 2020, prior to BluJay <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/e2open-acquires-blujay-solutions-for-17-billion-5249821">being acquired in 2021 by E2open.</a> Forwarders in Australia argued to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) that WiseTech’s ownership of Expedient gave it too large a share of the market that software forwarders and customs brokers use to run their businesses. WiseTech’s flagship product, CargoWise One, is the most used forwarding software globally. Expedient will be sold, subject to ACCC approval, to a purchaser that will be able to operate it as a viable competitor to WiseTech in Australia, according to a statement from the regulator this week. “The ACCC considers that WiseTech already has substantial market power in the supply of logistics software, and the acquisition has the effect of removing the competition between CargoWise and Expedient and significantly reduced the choice available to Australian customers,” ACCC Chairwoman Gina Cass-Gottlieb said in the statement. “The ACCC received significant concerns from users of logistics software during the investigation, and was concerned that the acquisition could lead to higher prices or lower quality services.” WiseTech’s rollup of core customs compliance software in various regions has been a key foundation of its ascent to become <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/cargowises-pricing-model-change-could-mark-final-milestone-in-market-ascent-6133279">the biggest forwarding software provider globally</a>. Contact Eric Johnson at <a href="mailto:eric.johnson@spglobal.com">eric.johnson@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Australian regulators are forcing WiseTech Global to sell an Oceania-based customs and forwarding software unit it took over as part of its $2.1 billion acquisition of E2open in mid-2025. The company, Expedient, was initially acquired by BluJay Solutions in 2020, prior to BluJay being acquired in 2021 by E2open. Forwarders in Australia argued to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) that WiseTech’s ownership of Expedient gave it too large a share of the market that software forwarders and customs brokers use to run their businesses. WiseTech’s flagship product, CargoWise One, is the most used forwarding software globally. Expedient will be sold, subject to ACCC approval, to a purchaser that will be able to operate it as a viable competitor to WiseTech in Australia, according to a statement from the regulator this week. “The ACCC considers that WiseTech already has substantial market power in the supply of logistics software, and the acquisition has the effect of removing the competition between CargoWise and Expedient and significantly reduced the choice available to Australian customers,” ACCC Chairwoman Gina Cass-Gottlieb said in the statement. “The ACCC received significant concerns from users of logistics software during the investigation, and was concerned that the acquisition could lead to higher prices or lower quality services.” WiseTech’s rollup of core customs compliance software in various regions has been a key foundation of its ascent to become the biggest forwarding software provider globally . Contact Eric Johnson at eric.johnson@spglobal.com .

Logistics Technology News

Supply chain

Australian regulators force WiseTech to sell software vendor

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The storm is bringing fierce winds and Arctic conditions to the region, impacting ocean, road and rail freight transport.</div>

The storm is bringing fierce winds and Arctic conditions to the region, impacting ocean, road and rail freight transport.

<div class="phx-topic">Heavy snow, ice and freezing temperatures are disrupting port and inland operations and grounding flights across Northern Europe as a winter storm hammers the region. Hundreds of flights in France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany were canceled Wednesday because of snow, high winds and icy conditions that are also affecting container terminal handling and road and rail networks. Maersk noted in an advisory that operations at key terminals, particularly in Rotterdam and Hamburg, were being disrupted. “As a result, productivity at terminals and depots has been reduced, while snow and icy road conditions are causing traffic congestion and delays for trucks,” the carrier said. “Rail services are also being affected by frozen track switches, leading to service disruptions and cancellations,” the advisory added, with the rail woes contributing to longer waiting times for import and export cargo and increasing yard congestion at hub ports in Northern Europe. <h3>Hamburg disruptions</h3>Terminal operator Eurogate is facing disruptions from snow, ice and strong winds at its Port of Hamburg facilities, but a spokesperson said its other German locations have so far been spared from the severe weather. “This may change, as the weather forecast for the coming days predicts very low temperatures, precipitation and strong winds for the whole of northern Germany,” the Eurogate spokesperson told the Journal of Commerce. “We are preparing as well as possible for these weather conditions but in some cases, we may have to pause operations.” A spokesperson for the Port of Hamburg said heavy snowfall restricted rail traffic last weekend, and while rail operations were “gradually returning to normal,” it will take time to clear backlogs. “Operations are running at the container terminals, but weather conditions are causing delays in handling across all modes of transport,” the port spokesperson said. “Winter service teams at the terminals are currently working flat out to ensure that handling operations continue as smoothly as possible.” Maersk highlighted challenging inland operating conditions in Northern Europe, warning of slower processing of trucks at Antwerp and Rotterdam, disrupted rail services between Rotterdam and Venlo, and delays between Rotterdam and Duisburg. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Heavy snow, ice and freezing temperatures are disrupting port and inland operations and grounding flights across Northern Europe as a winter storm hammers the region. Hundreds of flights in France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany were canceled Wednesday because of snow, high winds and icy conditions that are also affecting container terminal handling and road and rail networks. Maersk noted in an advisory that operations at key terminals, particularly in Rotterdam and Hamburg, were being disrupted. “As a result, productivity at terminals and depots has been reduced, while snow and icy road conditions are causing traffic congestion and delays for trucks,” the carrier said. “Rail services are also being affected by frozen track switches, leading to service disruptions and cancellations,” the advisory added, with the rail woes contributing to longer waiting times for import and export cargo and increasing yard congestion at hub ports in Northern Europe. Hamburg disruptions Terminal operator Eurogate is facing disruptions from snow, ice and strong winds at its Port of Hamburg facilities, but a spokesperson said its other German locations have so far been spared from the severe weather. “This may change, as the weather forecast for the coming days predicts very low temperatures, precipitation and strong winds for the whole of northern Germany,” the Eurogate spokesperson told the Journal of Commerce. “We are preparing as well as possible for these weather conditions but in some cases, we may have to pause operations.” A spokesperson for the Port of Hamburg said heavy snowfall restricted rail traffic last weekend, and while rail operations were “gradually returning to normal,” it will take time to clear backlogs. “Operations are running at the container terminals, but weather conditions are causing delays in handling across all modes of transport,” the port spokesperson said. “Winter service teams at the terminals are currently working flat out to ensure that handling operations continue as smoothly as possible.” Maersk highlighted challenging inland operating conditions in Northern Europe, warning of slower processing of trucks at Antwerp and Rotterdam, disrupted rail services between Rotterdam and Venlo, and delays between Rotterdam and Duisburg. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Rail News

Surface

International ports

International rail

Severe winter storm disrupts North Europe port, inland operations

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Contract shippers have not felt the impact of the surge last month in spot market truckload rates, but that could change amid market uncertainty as 2026 begins.</div>

Contract shippers have not felt the impact of the surge last month in spot market truckload rates, but that could change amid market uncertainty as 2026 begins.

<div class="phx-topic">The newfound strength in US truckload pricing could become a turning point if it lasts until mid-February, long enough that shippers could see it in their contracts, but there are also plenty of hazards that could cause the freight recession to linger into a fourth year, analysts warn. Truckload spot rates were largely tepid between February and November, but shot up 19 cents per mile in December from November, which was also a 9.1% increase year over year, according to a Journal of Commerce analysis of truckload data from DAT Freight and Analytics and managed transportation provider Loadsmart. The average national rate paid by shippers last month was $2.46 per mile across the US, including fuel, on lanes 250 miles or greater. “I do think a lot of [the] rate increase in December was weather driven ... winter weather hitting the Midwest and Northeast,” David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, said Tuesday on the Meet Me for Coffee podcast hosted by Samantha Jones. “Rates are going to come back down. I think it’s a short-lived season volatility.” Jason Miller, professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, said the key month to watch is February. Rates tend to remain slightly elevated in January because of the reverse logistics involved in returning Christmas gifts. But if rates remain elevated through February — which Miller doesn’t believe will happen — then pricing power could shift to the carriers. “We’re entering this year, from a manufacturing standpoint, in a worse position today than we were entering last year,” Miller said on the podcast. A shipper who did not want to be identified told the Journal of Commerce that his contract truckload carriers have not broached the subject of raising contract rates based off the December spot market surge. <h3>Data picture is cloudy </h3>Economists are working through the backlog of data that accumulated during the 43-day government shutdown in October and November. “The hard part is that we’re still waiting for a lot of government data that we’d love to have,” Miller said. “New single family home permits were down 10% year over year last August, but that feels like ancient history.” The S&amp;P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was in expansion territory in December at 51.8, but the outlook was much more cautious. “Something of a Wile E. Coyote scenario has developed, whereby — just like the cartoon character continues to run despite chasing the roadrunner off a cliff — factories are continuing to produce goods despite suffering a drop in orders,” wrote Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence. The gap between production and new orders was the widest since the Great Recession of 2008–09, indicating “current factory production levels are clearly unsustainable,” Williamson wrote. That’s relevant because industrial freight powers the trucks and railroads, hauling raw materials and intermediate products used to make durable and non-durable consumer products. There are other signs that could cool the December euphoria of carriers, including the federal government this month beginning to garnish the wages of those who are delinquent on their student loans, a practice that was halted during the COVID-19 pandemic. “Holiday shopping is often on credit cards, and so when we start seeing wage garnishments to pay student loans, it’s going to create real strain on some consumers,” Aaron Terrazas, an independent economist who previously worked for companies such as Convoy, Glassdoor and Zillow, said on the Jones webcast. <h3>Things could change fast </h3>Despite the lackluster macroeconomic picture, there are unknowns that could quickly shock the market and shift pricing power back to carriers. The US Supreme Court must rule on whether President Donald Trump had the authority to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to apply reciprocal tariffs across dozens of trading partners last year. The Court will hand down a series of rulings this Friday, but it is unknown if the tariffs case will be one of them. If the Court rules against Trump, and the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates, it could create a one-two punch that could shock the markets. “There will be a window which I think shippers will just force as much they can through the pipe before the administration finds another way to get tariffs in place,” Terrazas said. “If the pipe opens, even if it’s for just two or three months, I think you’ll see just an absolute bonanza ... It’ll be absolute and total hell on all transportation managers [shippers].” If the Court rules for Trump, however, the administration has floated the idea of issuing tariff rebate checks of up to $2,000 to US citizens. If people receive that money, it could be the demand catalyst to kickstart a freight recovery, according to Terrazas and Miller. There is also the battle between the US Department of Transportation (USDOT) and several states over rescinding non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) to asylum seekers and other visa holders that were previously qualified. California announced a 60-day extension on canceling the non-domiciled CDLs, kicking the issue to March, while the USDOT has threatened to withhold federal funds over that decision. It is unclear what the impact on both truckload and port drayage would be if California canceled as many as 17,000 non-domiciled CDLs.“I think vulnerability to sustained disruption is a major issue,” Spencer said on the webcast. “Use this past little stretch in December as a good indicator of what to expect because there are going to be periods of volatility.” Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The newfound strength in US truckload pricing could become a turning point if it lasts until mid-February, long enough that shippers could see it in their contracts, but there are also plenty of hazards that could cause the freight recession to linger into a fourth year, analysts warn. Truckload spot rates were largely tepid between February and November, but shot up 19 cents per mile in December from November, which was also a 9.1% increase year over year, according to a Journal of Commerce analysis of truckload data from DAT Freight and Analytics and managed transportation provider Loadsmart. The average national rate paid by shippers last month was $2.46 per mile across the US, including fuel, on lanes 250 miles or greater. “I do think a lot of [the] rate increase in December was weather driven ... winter weather hitting the Midwest and Northeast,” David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, said Tuesday on the Meet Me for Coffee podcast hosted by Samantha Jones. “Rates are going to come back down. I think it’s a short-lived season volatility.” Jason Miller, professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, said the key month to watch is February. Rates tend to remain slightly elevated in January because of the reverse logistics involved in returning Christmas gifts. But if rates remain elevated through February — which Miller doesn’t believe will happen — then pricing power could shift to the carriers. “We’re entering this year, from a manufacturing standpoint, in a worse position today than we were entering last year,” Miller said on the podcast. A shipper who did not want to be identified told the Journal of Commerce that his contract truckload carriers have not broached the subject of raising contract rates based off the December spot market surge. Data picture is cloudy Economists are working through the backlog of data that accumulated during the 43-day government shutdown in October and November. “The hard part is that we’re still waiting for a lot of government data that we’d love to have,” Miller said. “New single family home permits were down 10% year over year last August, but that feels like ancient history.” The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was in expansion territory in December at 51.8, but the outlook was much more cautious. “Something of a Wile E. Coyote scenario has developed, whereby — just like the cartoon character continues to run despite chasing the roadrunner off a cliff — factories are continuing to produce goods despite suffering a drop in orders,” wrote Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. The gap between production and new orders was the widest since the Great Recession of 2008–09, indicating “current factory production levels are clearly unsustainable,” Williamson wrote. That’s relevant because industrial freight powers the trucks and railroads, hauling raw materials and intermediate products used to make durable and non-durable consumer products. There are other signs that could cool the December euphoria of carriers, including the federal government this month beginning to garnish the wages of those who are delinquent on their student loans, a practice that was halted during the COVID-19 pandemic. “Holiday shopping is often on credit cards, and so when we start seeing wage garnishments to pay student loans, it’s going to create real strain on some consumers,” Aaron Terrazas, an independent economist who previously worked for companies such as Convoy, Glassdoor and Zillow, said on the Jones webcast. Things could change fast Despite the lackluster macroeconomic picture, there are unknowns that could quickly shock the market and shift pricing power back to carriers. The US Supreme Court must rule on whether President Donald Trump had the authority to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to apply reciprocal tariffs across dozens of trading partners last year. The Court will hand down a series of rulings this Friday, but it is unknown if the tariffs case will be one of them. If the Court rules against Trump, and the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates, it could create a one-two punch that could shock the markets. “There will be a window which I think shippers will just force as much they can through the pipe before the administration finds another way to get tariffs in place,” Terrazas said. “If the pipe opens, even if it’s for just two or three months, I think you’ll see just an absolute bonanza ... It’ll be absolute and total hell on all transportation managers [shippers].” If the Court rules for Trump, however, the administration has floated the idea of issuing tariff rebate checks of up to $2,000 to US citizens. If people receive that money, it could be the demand catalyst to kickstart a freight recovery, according to Terrazas and Miller. There is also the battle between the US Department of Transportation (USDOT) and several states over rescinding non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) to asylum seekers and other visa holders that were previously qualified. California announced a 60-day extension on canceling the non-domiciled CDLs, kicking the issue to March, while the USDOT has threatened to withhold federal funds over that decision. It is unclear what the impact on both truckload and port drayage would be if California canceled as many as 17,000 non-domiciled CDLs. “I think vulnerability to sustained disruption is a major issue,” Spencer said on the webcast. “Use this past little stretch in December as a good indicator of what to expect because there are going to be periods of volatility.” Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Trucking News

Truckload

US truckload pricing remains unsettled despite red-hot December

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The acquisition continues a wave of supply chain consolidation seen in Australia and New Zealand in recent years as service providers search for inorganic growth in a highly competitive market. </div>

The acquisition continues a wave of supply chain consolidation seen in Australia and New Zealand in recent years as service providers search for inorganic growth in a highly competitive market.

<div class="phx-topic">Medlog Oceania, a subsidiary of Mediterranean Shipping Co. operating in Australia and New Zealand, said Wednesday it has signed an agreement to acquire the intermodal business of Melbourne-based Seaway, significantly expanding its footprint in the region. The acquisition continues a wave of supply chain consolidation in Australia and New Zealand in recent years as service providers search for inorganic growth in a highly competitive market. Financial details of the acquisition were not disclosed, but the deal is expected to be completed in the first quarter. “This acquisition reinforces our ability to deliver value-added solutions and drive sustainable growth across Oceania,” Giuseppe Prudente, chairman of Medlog, said in a statement. Medlog Oceania provides integrated logistics for Australian businesses, managing supply chains through road, rail and port connectivity. It offers container transport and warehousing, including cold storage, and connects regional exporters to global markets from locations in Western Australia, Victoria and New South Wales. While the acquisition does not include Seaway’s Sea Freight Forwarding, Air Freight and Shipping Agencies divisions, it strengthens Medlog Oceania’s presence in the state of Victoria and in the agricultural heartland on the Victoria-New South Wales border known as Sunraysia. It also supports Medlog’s global sustainability strategy, with the rail component playing a critical role in reducing carbon emissions. Seaway’s intermodal business offers integrated logistics solutions through a combination of road, rail and warehousing services, connecting regional exporters and importers across key markets. Craig McElvaney, CEO of Seaway Group, highlighted the need for scale and investment in offering intermodal services to customers in the region. “The Seaway Board believes its intermodal business has reached a point where its next phase of growth will be best supported by an organization with the scale, resources, and infrastructure to invest in, and expand the business further,” he said in the joint statement. <h3>Acquisitions drive economies of scale </h3>The last few years have seen significant mergers and acquisitions within Oceania’s supply chain and logistics sectors. Medlog itself has been expanding rapidly across Australia with full-suite services introduced in the past two years in addition to acquiring an empty container park near VICT terminal in Melbourne in 2024 and setting up its own intermodal operation and container park in Sydney last September. Other supply chain acquisitions include DP World Australia acquiring Australian logistics provider Silk Logistics in a deal valued at US$115 million in late 2024; Dachser taking over ACA International in 2023 to add Australia and New Zealand to its air and sea network; DHL Supply Chain acquiring Glen Cameron Group in 2022 and last year opening a health logistics facility in Auckland. In 2021, Mondiale Freight Services and VISA Global Logistics merged their international transport and logistics services to launch an $800 million revenue operation reaching across Australia, New Zealand, North Asia, Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent and Europe. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Medlog Oceania, a subsidiary of Mediterranean Shipping Co. operating in Australia and New Zealand, said Wednesday it has signed an agreement to acquire the intermodal business of Melbourne-based Seaway, significantly expanding its footprint in the region. The acquisition continues a wave of supply chain consolidation in Australia and New Zealand in recent years as service providers search for inorganic growth in a highly competitive market. Financial details of the acquisition were not disclosed, but the deal is expected to be completed in the first quarter. “This acquisition reinforces our ability to deliver value-added solutions and drive sustainable growth across Oceania,” Giuseppe Prudente, chairman of Medlog, said in a statement. Medlog Oceania provides integrated logistics for Australian businesses, managing supply chains through road, rail and port connectivity. It offers container transport and warehousing, including cold storage, and connects regional exporters to global markets from locations in Western Australia, Victoria and New South Wales. While the acquisition does not include Seaway’s Sea Freight Forwarding, Air Freight and Shipping Agencies divisions, it strengthens Medlog Oceania’s presence in the state of Victoria and in the agricultural heartland on the Victoria-New South Wales border known as Sunraysia. It also supports Medlog’s global sustainability strategy, with the rail component playing a critical role in reducing carbon emissions. Seaway’s intermodal business offers integrated logistics solutions through a combination of road, rail and warehousing services, connecting regional exporters and importers across key markets. Craig McElvaney, CEO of Seaway Group, highlighted the need for scale and investment in offering intermodal services to customers in the region. “The Seaway Board believes its intermodal business has reached a point where its next phase of growth will be best supported by an organization with the scale, resources, and infrastructure to invest in, and expand the business further,” he said in the joint statement. Acquisitions drive economies of scale The last few years have seen significant mergers and acquisitions within Oceania’s supply chain and logistics sectors. Medlog itself has been expanding rapidly across Australia with full-suite services introduced in the past two years in addition to acquiring an empty container park near VICT terminal in Melbourne in 2024 and setting up its own intermodal operation and container park in Sydney last September. Other supply chain acquisitions include DP World Australia acquiring Australian logistics provider Silk Logistics in a deal valued at US$115 million in late 2024; Dachser taking over ACA International in 2023 to add Australia and New Zealand to its air and sea network; DHL Supply Chain acquiring Glen Cameron Group in 2022 and last year opening a health logistics facility in Auckland. In 2021, Mondiale Freight Services and VISA Global Logistics merged their international transport and logistics services to launch an $800 million revenue operation reaching across Australia, New Zealand, North Asia, Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent and Europe. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

MSC’s Medlog Oceania inks deal for Seaway’s intermodal business

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The integration will allow small truckload brokers to automate a range of load processes within their existing transportation management system.</div>

The integration will allow small truckload brokers to automate a range of load processes within their existing transportation management system.

<div class="phx-topic">DAT Freight &amp; Analytics on Wednesday said it has made its Convoy Platform that automates load posting and booking available within AscendTMS, a widely used transportation management system (TMS) for small to midsize truckload freight brokers. The integration is part of a broader evolution away from manual posting on load boards, of which DAT operates the largest in North America, toward a purely digital process that includes posting, bidding, booking, tracking, shipment documentation and payment. That process was set in motion in July through <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/dat-acquiring-convoy-automation-platform-from-flexport-6051850">DAT’s purchase of Convoy from Flexport</a>, with DAT running the Convoy Platform in parallel to its DAT One load board for brokers that preferred to automate all the constituent parts of a load lifecycle. Loads executed through the Convoy Platform are assessed a transaction fee, with DAT saying that brokers using AscendTMS will benefit from a “pay-as-you-go model” where they pay only for loads matched and completed within their pricing specifications. There are no additional monthly costs or minimum transaction requirements, the companies said in a statement. “Brokers are operating on tighter margins while navigating increasing fraud risk,” Bill Driegert, executive vice president of the Convoy Platform at DAT, said in the statement. “This integration provides AscendTMS users with the advanced freight automation and fraud-protection technology they need without a change in workflow or upfront investment.” AscendTMS CEO Tim Higham said the integration with DAT took a year to build to “work seamlessly 100% of the time.” “This integration is one of the most comprehensive we’ve ever done with any partner,” Higham said. “We expect that in three to five years, close to 100% of all spot market loads that were once posted to DAT [and to other load boards] will be transacted 100% digitally, with zero human involvement from initial match to final payment.” Driegert told the Journal of Commerce at the time of the Convoy acquisition that the platform would give brokers “optionality,” as there were some brokers that are eager to automate while others are still gravitating toward a more digital posting, bidding and booking workflow. <h3>Cost pressures </h3>The integration comes as brokers are under increasing cost pressure to manage their buy rates from carriers and sell rates to shippers. Ken Adamo, chief of analytics at DAT, posted on X Tuesday that December broker gross margins for 933,000 loads across 446 companies in DAT’s platform were $189.47 per load, an average of 9.9% margins. “Gross margins under 10% are concerning and very rare at an industry level,” he wrote. “Generally, when we see [gross margin percentage] this low, it’s because rates are high and the [gross margin] per load is up.” For example, in December 2021, the gross margin per load was about 11%, but that translated into approximately $250 per load. “Not only are we underperforming those margin levels, but brokers are also netting nearly 25% less gross profit per load than other high-rate environments,” Adamo wrote. Contact Eric Johnson at <a href="mailto:eric.johnson@spglobal.com">eric.johnson@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

DAT Freight & Analytics on Wednesday said it has made its Convoy Platform that automates load posting and booking available within AscendTMS, a widely used transportation management system (TMS) for small to midsize truckload freight brokers. The integration is part of a broader evolution away from manual posting on load boards, of which DAT operates the largest in North America, toward a purely digital process that includes posting, bidding, booking, tracking, shipment documentation and payment. That process was set in motion in July through DAT’s purchase of Convoy from Flexport , with DAT running the Convoy Platform in parallel to its DAT One load board for brokers that preferred to automate all the constituent parts of a load lifecycle. Loads executed through the Convoy Platform are assessed a transaction fee, with DAT saying that brokers using AscendTMS will benefit from a “pay-as-you-go model” where they pay only for loads matched and completed within their pricing specifications. There are no additional monthly costs or minimum transaction requirements, the companies said in a statement. “Brokers are operating on tighter margins while navigating increasing fraud risk,” Bill Driegert, executive vice president of the Convoy Platform at DAT, said in the statement. “This integration provides AscendTMS users with the advanced freight automation and fraud-protection technology they need without a change in workflow or upfront investment.” AscendTMS CEO Tim Higham said the integration with DAT took a year to build to “work seamlessly 100% of the time.” “This integration is one of the most comprehensive we’ve ever done with any partner,” Higham said. “We expect that in three to five years, close to 100% of all spot market loads that were once posted to DAT [and to other load boards] will be transacted 100% digitally, with zero human involvement from initial match to final payment.” Driegert told the Journal of Commerce at the time of the Convoy acquisition that the platform would give brokers “optionality,” as there were some brokers that are eager to automate while others are still gravitating toward a more digital posting, bidding and booking workflow. Cost pressures The integration comes as brokers are under increasing cost pressure to manage their buy rates from carriers and sell rates to shippers. Ken Adamo, chief of analytics at DAT, posted on X Tuesday that December broker gross margins for 933,000 loads across 446 companies in DAT’s platform were $189.47 per load, an average of 9.9% margins. “Gross margins under 10% are concerning and very rare at an industry level,” he wrote. “Generally, when we see [gross margin percentage] this low, it’s because rates are high and the [gross margin] per load is up.” For example, in December 2021, the gross margin per load was about 11%, but that translated into approximately $250 per load. “Not only are we underperforming those margin levels, but brokers are also netting nearly 25% less gross profit per load than other high-rate environments,” Adamo wrote. Contact Eric Johnson at eric.johnson@spglobal.com .

DAT, AscendTMS push Convoy load automation into small broker world

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Any domestic intermodal growth in 2026 will depend largely on whether the mode can claw back share from the highway. </div>

Any domestic intermodal growth in 2026 will depend largely on whether the mode can claw back share from the highway.

<div class="phx-topic">The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook. Another turbulent year for North American intermodal has drawn to a close. The year started with a new US presidential administration, followed by “Liberation Day” and ongoing tariff uncertainty. Meanwhile, the industry coped with continued soft demand for truckload services and continued downward pricing pressure. The year culminated with the announcement of a coast-to-coast rail merger that, if approved, will certainly transform the intermodal landscape. Through the first 10 months of 2025, intermodal rail volumes rose 3.1% year over year — good growth, but well short of the 8.5% gain recorded in 2024. International intermodal — the movement of 20- and 40-foot ISO containers to and from ports — provided most of the growth impetus, increasing 4.3% through October versus 1.9% for domestic — 53-foot domestic containers and trailers. But the picture is changing fast. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6148252_0.1.jpg"></img></div>International came into 2025 with a ton of momentum. Growth in 2024 had been strong at 13.9%, thanks in part to late-year frontloading of imports in response to tariff fears. But the pendulum had begun to swing, and growth began to ebb. The first quarter of 2025 notched a 6.3% year-over-year gain, but in the second quarter, growth slowed to 2.4% before rising slightly to 2.8% in the third quarter. July results were boosted by a surge in imports after the Trump administration reduced the effective tariff rate on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%. Thereafter, the air resumed coming out of the balloon, with only a fractional gain in September and a 5.7% year-over-year deficit in October. <h3>‘Cloudy’ prospects for international intermodal </h3>The prospects for international intermodal in 2026 are cloudy at best. Donald Trump’s exceedingly volatile and unpredictable tariff gyrations have settled to a certain extent, reducing the big push/pull effects that rocked 2025. The first half of 2026 will bring difficult year-over-year comparisons as “normal” volumes are compared to the robust, frontloading-boosted volumes of the prior year. Adding to the headwinds will be the ongoing return to normalcy with regard to coastal share. West Coast share benefited in early 2025 from labor uncertainty on the East and Gulf coasts, as well as the closure of the Suez Canal routing. Now, labor peace reigns in the east, and the West Coast share has dipped back towards the previous normal. With the truce in Gaza, the potential is growing for a return to the Suez, which will enhance the East Coast option. This will be a headwind for intermodal, as intermodal market share is considerably higher on the West Coast than on the East Coast. <h3>‘Challenging’ environment for domestic </h3>The domestic intermodal sector continued to slog forward in 2025. After ending 2024 on an optimistic note, with domestic intermodal share ticking up to 6.2% in the second half of the year, the momentum faded in the first half of 2025, and share slipped back below 6%. Through October, domestic intermodal volumes grew just 1.9%, down from a 3.5% gain in 2024. For 2026, the environment for domestic intermodal is projected to remain challenging. Limited growth in truckload demand is expected. Truckload capacity has slowly been exiting, but history tells us that, in the absence of either an outside influence or an increase in demand, the trucking industry is unable to “right-size” capacity. Any intermodal growth will depend largely on whether the mode can claw back share from the highway. However, a wild card is taking shape in the form of the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown. In trucking, these initiatives include documentation checks during traffic stops, and a crackdown on non-domicile commercial drivers’ licenses and English competency requirements. Taken together, these actions hold the potential for a meaningful reduction in driver supply. Whether it is large enough to move the needle will depend on how far and how quickly things evolve. On the plus side, US Surface Transportation Board service statistics indicate that, despite the ups and downs experienced in 2025, the intermodal network has been running exceptionally well. In particular, trains being held in terminals for lack of power or crews are at very low levels across the board. This implies that more-than-adequate supplies of both are available. In other good news, domestic intermodal is growing strongly in Mexican markets. Intra-Mexico domestic container moves were up 17.5% year-to-date through October, and domestic containers crossing the border, which declined 3.1% in 2024, were up 20.9%. It may have taken a while, but the flurry of new services engendered by the Canadian Pacific Kansas City merger and the reaction of the other railroads have started to gain some traction. Larry Gross is president and founder of Gross Transportation Consulting. Contact him at <a href="mailto:lawrencejgross@gmail.com">lawrencejgross@gmail.com</a>. </div>

The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook. Another turbulent year for North American intermodal has drawn to a close. The year started with a new US presidential administration, followed by “Liberation Day” and ongoing tariff uncertainty. Meanwhile, the industry coped with continued soft demand for truckload services and continued downward pricing pressure. The year culminated with the announcement of a coast-to-coast rail merger that, if approved, will certainly transform the intermodal landscape. Through the first 10 months of 2025, intermodal rail volumes rose 3.1% year over year — good growth, but well short of the 8.5% gain recorded in 2024. International intermodal — the movement of 20- and 40-foot ISO containers to and from ports — provided most of the growth impetus, increasing 4.3% through October versus 1.9% for domestic — 53-foot domestic containers and trailers. But the picture is changing fast. International came into 2025 with a ton of momentum. Growth in 2024 had been strong at 13.9%, thanks in part to late-year frontloading of imports in response to tariff fears. But the pendulum had begun to swing, and growth began to ebb. The first quarter of 2025 notched a 6.3% year-over-year gain, but in the second quarter, growth slowed to 2.4% before rising slightly to 2.8% in the third quarter. July results were boosted by a surge in imports after the Trump administration reduced the effective tariff rate on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%. Thereafter, the air resumed coming out of the balloon, with only a fractional gain in September and a 5.7% year-over-year deficit in October. ‘Cloudy’ prospects for international intermodal The prospects for international intermodal in 2026 are cloudy at best. Donald Trump’s exceedingly volatile and unpredictable tariff gyrations have settled to a certain extent, reducing the big push/pull effects that rocked 2025. The first half of 2026 will bring difficult year-over-year comparisons as “normal” volumes are compared to the robust, frontloading-boosted volumes of the prior year. Adding to the headwinds will be the ongoing return to normalcy with regard to coastal share. West Coast share benefited in early 2025 from labor uncertainty on the East and Gulf coasts, as well as the closure of the Suez Canal routing. Now, labor peace reigns in the east, and the West Coast share has dipped back towards the previous normal. With the truce in Gaza, the potential is growing for a return to the Suez, which will enhance the East Coast option. This will be a headwind for intermodal, as intermodal market share is considerably higher on the West Coast than on the East Coast. ‘Challenging’ environment for domestic The domestic intermodal sector continued to slog forward in 2025. After ending 2024 on an optimistic note, with domestic intermodal share ticking up to 6.2% in the second half of the year, the momentum faded in the first half of 2025, and share slipped back below 6%. Through October, domestic intermodal volumes grew just 1.9%, down from a 3.5% gain in 2024. For 2026, the environment for domestic intermodal is projected to remain challenging. Limited growth in truckload demand is expected. Truckload capacity has slowly been exiting, but history tells us that, in the absence of either an outside influence or an increase in demand, the trucking industry is unable to “right-size” capacity. Any intermodal growth will depend largely on whether the mode can claw back share from the highway. However, a wild card is taking shape in the form of the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown. In trucking, these initiatives include documentation checks during traffic stops, and a crackdown on non-domicile commercial drivers’ licenses and English competency requirements. Taken together, these actions hold the potential for a meaningful reduction in driver supply. Whether it is large enough to move the needle will depend on how far and how quickly things evolve. On the plus side, US Surface Transportation Board service statistics indicate that, despite the ups and downs experienced in 2025, the intermodal network has been running exceptionally well. In particular, trains being held in terminals for lack of power or crews are at very low levels across the board. This implies that more-than-adequate supplies of both are available. In other good news, domestic intermodal is growing strongly in Mexican markets. Intra-Mexico domestic container moves were up 17.5% year-to-date through October, and domestic containers crossing the border, which declined 3.1% in 2024, were up 20.9%. It may have taken a while, but the flurry of new services engendered by the Canadian Pacific Kansas City merger and the reaction of the other railroads have started to gain some traction. Larry Gross is president and founder of Gross Transportation Consulting. Contact him at lawrencejgross@gmail.com .

North-American rail

After tumultuous 2025, challenges remain for North American intermodal

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">While there is little doubt that heightened regulatory enforcement has played some role in affecting dry-van truckload capacity in the fourth quarter of 2025, efforts to attribute the sharp rise in spot prices this month to regulatory enforcement are premature, writes Jason Miller. </div>

While there is little doubt that heightened regulatory enforcement has played some role in affecting dry-van truckload capacity in the fourth quarter of 2025, efforts to attribute the sharp rise in spot prices this month to regulatory enforcement are premature, writes Jason Miller.

<div class="phx-topic">As we enter 2026, questions swirl about dry-van truckload capacity, especially following the sharp rise in dry-van truckload spot rates in December coupled with extensive discourse about heightened regulatory enforcement. By my estimate, adjusting for fuel prices, dry-van truckload spot rates were up 9% year over year this month and posted the best single-month increase in over five years. While we will need to wait until February to fully understand if this rate increase was simply a super-seasonal spike, this analysis on dry-van truckload capacity and demand dynamics in 2025 provides a sense of likely market behavior in 2026. Beginning with supply, administrative records data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages show a substantial exodus of dry-van truckload capacity since early 2023, with an estimated capacity decline of 7.5% as of June 2025 (the most recently available data). Capacity exit was particularly pronounced during 2024 and continued unabated through June 2025. My estimate places June 2025 payrolls down 2.7% from the prior year. Crucially, this is before heightened regulatory and immigration enforcement could play a significant role. As such, efforts to attribute the sharp rise in dry-van truckload spot prices this month to regulatory enforcement are premature. While there is little doubt that heightened regulatory enforcement has played some role in affecting capacity in the fourth quarter of 2025, especially among <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/21/business/sikhs-truckers-trump-crackdown.html">immigrant drivers</a>, much of the tightening we saw this month may simply be due to lower supply amid a market-driven exit. Combining this payroll data with dynamics observed for separate nonemployer data — which captures leased owner-operators and for-hire owner-operators — my sense is dry van truckload payrolls have fallen to the levels we saw in 2017. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="b62cb6b6-bbe2-4084-b568-3eb5e249d70e"></dynamic-object></div>Turning to demand, quarterly aggregates of the seasonally adjusted trucking ton-mile index show the third quarter of 2025’s year-over-year ton-mile growth was 0.8%. This represents a slow rate of demand growth compared with what we have observed in prior expansionary pricing cycles. For example, the third quarter of 2017 saw ton-miles of demand increase 2.4% from the third quarter of 2016, with the caveat that output was constrained by Hurricane Harvey’s landfall. The fourth quarter of 2017 saw ton-miles of demand increase 3.7% from fourth-quarter 2016 levels. Demand then grew at a 3% to 3.7% year-over-year basis for the first quarter of 2018 through the third quarter of 2018. Demand growth slowed in the fourth quarter of 2018 before dropping significantly in 2019, a year recognized as a freight recession. Industrial production data for the fourth quarter of 2025 suggests that year-over-year growth in ton-miles of demand was likely less than the third quarter of 2025’s 0.8% figure. Combined with ongoing weakness in manufacturing demand as captured by multiple regional manufacturing surveys from Federal Reserve Banks, ongoing weakness in <a href="https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2025/2504">oil and gas activity</a>, and continued soft activity in <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1PwqO">single-family housing</a> as well as <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Pwru">multifamily housing</a>, growth in freight demand in 2026 is likely to remain low compared with what is normally observed during expansionary pricing environments. <h3>Expectations for 2026 </h3>What does this mean for pricing and capacity in 2026? As firms do not expand capacity in response to transient <a href="https://academic.oup.com/ej/article/131/634/598/5873665">increases in demand or prices</a>, dry-van carriers will likely want to observe how spot rates evolve over the next few months. Over the past few years, fuel-adjusted dry-van truckload spot rates in January have remained at or even slightly above levels observed in the prior December. This dynamic held in December 2023 to January 2024 and December 2024 to January 2025. As such, the first thing I will look for is whether spot rates drop in January, but the more significant test is February. If dry-van truckload spot rates hold at current levels in January and February, this is likely to signal to carriers that more supply is needed. This will cause some firms to take action to add capacity, such as ordering more equipment. Historically, year-over-year changes in spot truckload rates are the best predictor of year-over-year changes in <a href="https://doi.org/10.5325/transportationj.61.2.0151">new Class 8 truck orders</a>, suggesting market participants should closely watch where first-quarter 2026 new Class 8 orders land. My sense is carriers acting in the first quarter to add capacity would put more capacity on the road by late third-quarter and early fourth-quarter 2026. Given my expectation that demand growth in 2026 will be slow, this suggests even if an expansionary pricing cycle were to occur in 2026 due primarily to a contraction in supply, these conditions will be shorter-lived and feature smaller price increases on a percentage basis than what occurred during the 2017–18 and 2020–22 expansionary cycles. Jason Miller is an associate professor of logistics at Michigan State University. Contact him at <a href="mailto:mill2831@broad.msu.edu">mill2831@broad.msu.edu</a>. </div>

As we enter 2026, questions swirl about dry-van truckload capacity, especially following the sharp rise in dry-van truckload spot rates in December coupled with extensive discourse about heightened regulatory enforcement. By my estimate, adjusting for fuel prices, dry-van truckload spot rates were up 9% year over year this month and posted the best single-month increase in over five years. While we will need to wait until February to fully understand if this rate increase was simply a super-seasonal spike, this analysis on dry-van truckload capacity and demand dynamics in 2025 provides a sense of likely market behavior in 2026. Beginning with supply, administrative records data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages show a substantial exodus of dry-van truckload capacity since early 2023, with an estimated capacity decline of 7.5% as of June 2025 (the most recently available data). Capacity exit was particularly pronounced during 2024 and continued unabated through June 2025. My estimate places June 2025 payrolls down 2.7% from the prior year. Crucially, this is before heightened regulatory and immigration enforcement could play a significant role. As such, efforts to attribute the sharp rise in dry-van truckload spot prices this month to regulatory enforcement are premature. While there is little doubt that heightened regulatory enforcement has played some role in affecting capacity in the fourth quarter of 2025, especially among immigrant drivers , much of the tightening we saw this month may simply be due to lower supply amid a market-driven exit. Combining this payroll data with dynamics observed for separate nonemployer data — which captures leased owner-operators and for-hire owner-operators — my sense is dry van truckload payrolls have fallen to the levels we saw in 2017. Turning to demand, quarterly aggregates of the seasonally adjusted trucking ton-mile index show the third quarter of 2025’s year-over-year ton-mile growth was 0.8%. This represents a slow rate of demand growth compared with what we have observed in prior expansionary pricing cycles. For example, the third quarter of 2017 saw ton-miles of demand increase 2.4% from the third quarter of 2016, with the caveat that output was constrained by Hurricane Harvey’s landfall. The fourth quarter of 2017 saw ton-miles of demand increase 3.7% from fourth-quarter 2016 levels. Demand then grew at a 3% to 3.7% year-over-year basis for the first quarter of 2018 through the third quarter of 2018. Demand growth slowed in the fourth quarter of 2018 before dropping significantly in 2019, a year recognized as a freight recession. Industrial production data for the fourth quarter of 2025 suggests that year-over-year growth in ton-miles of demand was likely less than the third quarter of 2025’s 0.8% figure. Combined with ongoing weakness in manufacturing demand as captured by multiple regional manufacturing surveys from Federal Reserve Banks, ongoing weakness in oil and gas activity , and continued soft activity in single-family housing as well as multifamily housing , growth in freight demand in 2026 is likely to remain low compared with what is normally observed during expansionary pricing environments. Expectations for 2026 What does this mean for pricing and capacity in 2026? As firms do not expand capacity in response to transient increases in demand or prices , dry-van carriers will likely want to observe how spot rates evolve over the next few months. Over the past few years, fuel-adjusted dry-van truckload spot rates in January have remained at or even slightly above levels observed in the prior December. This dynamic held in December 2023 to January 2024 and December 2024 to January 2025. As such, the first thing I will look for is whether spot rates drop in January, but the more significant test is February. If dry-van truckload spot rates hold at current levels in January and February, this is likely to signal to carriers that more supply is needed. This will cause some firms to take action to add capacity, such as ordering more equipment. Historically, year-over-year changes in spot truckload rates are the best predictor of year-over-year changes in new Class 8 truck orders , suggesting market participants should closely watch where first-quarter 2026 new Class 8 orders land. My sense is carriers acting in the first quarter to add capacity would put more capacity on the road by late third-quarter and early fourth-quarter 2026. Given my expectation that demand growth in 2026 will be slow, this suggests even if an expansionary pricing cycle were to occur in 2026 due primarily to a contraction in supply, these conditions will be shorter-lived and feature smaller price increases on a percentage basis than what occurred during the 2017–18 and 2020–22 expansionary cycles. Jason Miller is an associate professor of logistics at Michigan State University. Contact him at mill2831@broad.msu.edu .

Separating myth from reality in dry-van truckload capacity

West

East

Gulf

PIERS containerized US import and export volumes is the transportation industry’s largest US waterborne trade data set, covering all US ports. Every day, the PIERS team processes an average of about 60,000 bills of lading filed with US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and integrates this transactional trade data with standardized company details. PIERS contains US trade data going back to 2003. [PIERS](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/products/piers.html)

Asia to US West, East and Gulf Coast YTD container volume market share (PIERS)

PIERS TEU market share US coastal imports from Asia (YTD) Gateway

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Few blank sailings have been announced for January, and none this week, as shippers in Asia get their cargo on the water ahead of China’s Lunar New Year factory shutdown.</div>

Few blank sailings have been announced for January, and none this week, as shippers in Asia get their cargo on the water ahead of China’s Lunar New Year factory shutdown.

<div class="phx-topic">The annual pre-Lunar New Year rush is underway on the Asia-North Europe ocean trade, with some market watchers reporting signs of frontloading on top of seasonal demand while others feel the volumes in January are within historical norms.What is clear, however, is that carriers are injecting significant capacity into the trade lane this month while blanking very few sailings as shippers race to get their cargo on the water before factories across China close for up to three weeks. The Year of the Horse begins on Feb. 17.Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, said capacity offered on Asia to North Europe was at an all-time high this week with no blank sailings. Data from Xeneta’s eeSea shows a record 1.15 million TEUs in capacity is being deployed this month on the Asia-North Europe trade lane, with blank sailings removing just 25,000 TEUs. In February, the planned capacity will drop to just over 1 million TEUs.“Demand is solid and seasonally strong ... anything of top of that could be fueled by [market] uncertainty,” Sand told the Journal of Commerce.Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis also highlighted a significant capacity increase, pointing to current weekly capacity of 421,825 TEUs being offered on Asia-North Europe, a 49% net increase compared with a 2015–19 pre-COVID-19 historical baseline.<div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="a63d21f3-de18-45d8-8acf-7aca6ea4f4c4"></dynamic-object></div>“This is a strong indication of a frontloading strategy where shippers are pushing massive volumes into the network much earlier than the historical figures suggest, likely a response to the current extended Asia-Europe transit times,” Sea-Intelligence wrote in the newsletter.“By flooding the trade lane early, shippers aim to ensure that their European inventory is buffered before the planned Lunar New Year capacity withdrawal begins,” the analyst noted.<h3>Demand following seasonal patterns</h3>A spokesman for Hapag-Lloyd said demand on the eastbound trade routes from Asia to Europe was following seasonal patterns.“We’re witnessing a normal peak season which started in December and is now ramping up towards Lunar New Year,” a spokesperson for Hapag-Lloyd told the Journal of Commerce. “We expect bookings to soften from end-January onwards as factories close.”Michael Aldwell, executive vice president of sea logistics at Kuehne + Nagel, said most of the forwarder’s customers in Europe used a “just-in-time” approach to manage supply chains and stock levels, which was affecting the duration of peak shipping periods.“[However], after two years of extended transit times, shippers are adjusting their plans accordingly, leading to a more stretched peak season,” Aldwell told the Journal of Commerce.Rising spot rates are accompanying the strong pre-Lunar New Year demand, with all indexes showing steep increases since early October. According to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, Asia-North Europe rates of $2,700 per FEU this week are more than double the Oct. 3 price. Container Trades Statistics, in its latest available data (October), shows Asia-North Europe container volume growth of almost 8% over the first 10 months of 2025 as oscillating US tariffs on Beijing saw Chinese shippers redirecting cargo to European markets. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The annual pre-Lunar New Year rush is underway on the Asia-North Europe ocean trade, with some market watchers reporting signs of frontloading on top of seasonal demand while others feel the volumes in January are within historical norms. What is clear, however, is that carriers are injecting significant capacity into the trade lane this month while blanking very few sailings as shippers race to get their cargo on the water before factories across China close for up to three weeks. The Year of the Horse begins on Feb. 17. Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, said capacity offered on Asia to North Europe was at an all-time high this week with no blank sailings. Data from Xeneta’s eeSea shows a record 1.15 million TEUs in capacity is being deployed this month on the Asia-North Europe trade lane, with blank sailings removing just 25,000 TEUs. In February, the planned capacity will drop to just over 1 million TEUs. “Demand is solid and seasonally strong ... anything of top of that could be fueled by [market] uncertainty,” Sand told the Journal of Commerce. Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis also highlighted a significant capacity increase, pointing to current weekly capacity of 421,825 TEUs being offered on Asia-North Europe, a 49% net increase compared with a 2015–19 pre-COVID-19 historical baseline. “This is a strong indication of a frontloading strategy where shippers are pushing massive volumes into the network much earlier than the historical figures suggest, likely a response to the current extended Asia-Europe transit times,” Sea-Intelligence wrote in the newsletter. “By flooding the trade lane early, shippers aim to ensure that their European inventory is buffered before the planned Lunar New Year capacity withdrawal begins,” the analyst noted. Demand following seasonal patterns A spokesman for Hapag-Lloyd said demand on the eastbound trade routes from Asia to Europe was following seasonal patterns. “We’re witnessing a normal peak season which started in December and is now ramping up towards Lunar New Year,” a spokesperson for Hapag-Lloyd told the Journal of Commerce. “We expect bookings to soften from end-January onwards as factories close.” Michael Aldwell, executive vice president of sea logistics at Kuehne + Nagel, said most of the forwarder’s customers in Europe used a “just-in-time” approach to manage supply chains and stock levels, which was affecting the duration of peak shipping periods. “[However], after two years of extended transit times, shippers are adjusting their plans accordingly, leading to a more stretched peak season,” Aldwell told the Journal of Commerce. Rising spot rates are accompanying the strong pre-Lunar New Year demand, with all indexes showing steep increases since early October. According to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, Asia-North Europe rates of $2,700 per FEU this week are more than double the Oct. 3 price. Container Trades Statistics, in its latest available data (October), shows Asia-North Europe container volume growth of almost 8% over the first 10 months of 2025 as oscillating US tariffs on Beijing saw Chinese shippers redirecting cargo to European markets. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Asia-Europe

Asia-Europe ocean carriers add capacity as trade enters peak shipping period

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The deals for nine feeder container ships and four multipurpose and heavy-lift ships total about $490 million, according to Cosco and shipbrokers.</div>

The deals for nine feeder container ships and four multipurpose and heavy-lift ships total about $490 million, according to Cosco and shipbrokers.

<div class="phx-topic">Cosco Shipping has awarded the initial tranche of shipbuilding contracts in its $7 billion fleet expansion and modernization program with China Shipbuilding Group announced in early December. The deals for nine feeder container ships and four multipurpose and heavy-lift ships total about $490 million, according to Cosco and shipbrokers. The larger package has been signed by Cosco Shipping Lines with CSSC Wuchang Shipbuilding for five 1,100-TEU feeder container ships and four 1,800-TEU vessels at a total cost of about $280 million. Seven of the ships will be delivered in 2028, with the remaining two in 2029. Shipbrokers say the 1,100-TEU ships are priced at about $30 million each, with the larger 1,800-TEU vessels costing $32 million. The ships are expected to be deployed on Cosco’s domestic network and its intra-Europe network operated by its Hamburg-headquartered affiliated carrier, Diamond Line. Meanwhile, a deal valued at $213 million was awarded by Cosco Shipping Specialized Carriers to CSSC Chengxi Shipyard for four 40,000-deadweight metric ton multipurpose and heavy-lift ships, Cosco said in a three-page statement to the Shanghai stock exchange. The first ship will be delivered in June 2028, with two more following in September and December 2028; the final ship will join Cosco’s specialized fleet in February 2029. The orders have been placed against a background of modest fleet growth in the global MPV and heavy-lift sector. The global fleet is set to expand by just 1.9% through 2029 as vessel scrapping largely keeps pace with new vessel deliveries, according to data published on the Journal of Commerce’s Gateway platform. The new vessels are expected to support Cosco’s expansion into the global wind energy sector. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="fb97885d-0b88-4d65-99f6-10558c9e7c79"></dynamic-object></div>“The trend toward larger-scale and deep-sea wind power has placed higher requirements on the scale and vessel type structure of the company’s multipurpose heavy-lift fleet,” Cosco said. Cosco has won a raft of wind energy transportation deals, especially in Europe. It completed the final shipment last month of monopiles for the Inch Cape offshore project in Scotland. Cosco said the new ships will generate an internal rate of return of 6.8% with an “investment payback period of 11.8 years, indicating good economic benefits.” Cosco has one of the world’s largest fleets of MPVs and heavy-lift ships with approximately 70 vessels and 10 semi-submersible deck carriers, which makes it the biggest operator of semi-submersible ships. Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>.</div>

Cosco Shipping has awarded the initial tranche of shipbuilding contracts in its $7 billion fleet expansion and modernization program with China Shipbuilding Group announced in early December. The deals for nine feeder container ships and four multipurpose and heavy-lift ships total about $490 million, according to Cosco and shipbrokers. The larger package has been signed by Cosco Shipping Lines with CSSC Wuchang Shipbuilding for five 1,100-TEU feeder container ships and four 1,800-TEU vessels at a total cost of about $280 million. Seven of the ships will be delivered in 2028, with the remaining two in 2029. Shipbrokers say the 1,100-TEU ships are priced at about $30 million each, with the larger 1,800-TEU vessels costing $32 million. The ships are expected to be deployed on Cosco’s domestic network and its intra-Europe network operated by its Hamburg-headquartered affiliated carrier, Diamond Line. Meanwhile, a deal valued at $213 million was awarded by Cosco Shipping Specialized Carriers to CSSC Chengxi Shipyard for four 40,000-deadweight metric ton multipurpose and heavy-lift ships, Cosco said in a three-page statement to the Shanghai stock exchange. The first ship will be delivered in June 2028, with two more following in September and December 2028; the final ship will join Cosco’s specialized fleet in February 2029. The orders have been placed against a background of modest fleet growth in the global MPV and heavy-lift sector. The global fleet is set to expand by just 1.9% through 2029 as vessel scrapping largely keeps pace with new vessel deliveries, according to data published on the Journal of Commerce’s Gateway platform. The new vessels are expected to support Cosco’s expansion into the global wind energy sector. “The trend toward larger-scale and deep-sea wind power has placed higher requirements on the scale and vessel type structure of the company’s multipurpose heavy-lift fleet,” Cosco said. Cosco has won a raft of wind energy transportation deals, especially in Europe. It completed the final shipment last month of monopiles for the Inch Cape offshore project in Scotland. Cosco said the new ships will generate an internal rate of return of 6.8% with an “investment payback period of 11.8 years, indicating good economic benefits.” Cosco has one of the world’s largest fleets of MPVs and heavy-lift ships with approximately 70 vessels and 10 semi-submersible deck carriers, which makes it the biggest operator of semi-submersible ships. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

Cosco awards initial newbuilding deals as part of $7 billion fleet expansion

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Months of frontloading explain the sharp volume slowdown in the final months of 2025, and with consumer sentiment weak and long-term trade policies still uncertain, US retailers are keeping inventories lean in early 2026. </div>

Months of frontloading explain the sharp volume slowdown in the final months of 2025, and with consumer sentiment weak and long-term trade policies still uncertain, US retailers are keeping inventories lean in early 2026.

<div class="phx-topic">The big picture: After an earlier-than-usual July peak season caused by tariff-related frontloading, the trans-Pacific trade enters 2026 in the midst of a deepening demand slowdown. Carriers are hoping a traditional pre-Lunar New Year rush will boost volumes and help buoy spot rates on the largest US trade lane, but the chances of a significant uptick are dwindling rapidly. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6143172_0.1.jpg"></img></div>A look back: Ocean container trade between Asia and the US in 2025 was marked primarily by retailers frontloading imports to reduce the pricing impact of Trump administration tariffs. The administration throughout the year issued more than 100 tariff decisions affecting imports from virtually every country in the world, with the largest increases in duty rates on goods made in China. As a result, containerized US imports from Asia grew 3.2% in the first eight months of 2025 before tumbling 8.8% year over year from September through November, according to data from PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. That volatility in volumes was also evident in the two large spikes in spot rates recorded in the first half, both of which were followed by swift declines. Average pricing from Asia to the US West Coast rose above $5,000 per FEU in early January, fell to $1,600 per FEU in March, rose to a 2025 high of $6,000 per FEU in June and then dropped to $1,700 per FEU in July, according to Platts, also part of S&amp;P Global. Starting Oct. 1, carriers launched a series of bimonthly general rate increases (GRIs) in an attempt to prevent spot rates from collapsing, but the effect of each GRI was short-lived, and by mid-December, Asia-US West Coast spot rates had fallen to $1,270 per FEU, the lowest reading since July 2023. A look ahead: Months of frontloading explain the harsh volume slowdown in the final months of 2025, and with consumer sentiment weak and long-term trade policies still uncertain, US retailers are keeping inventories lean in early 2026. Despite a one-year negotiating pause in reciprocal US-China tariffs that began in November, imports from China still face an effective duty rate of 47%. Retailers are placing orders for spring merchandise cautiously, and the typical rush of factory production and container vessel bookings in the lead up to Lunar New Year celebrations in China are expected to fall flat, leaving volumes well below the levels recorded in 2025. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="a04e27f7-b2bc-4d9d-b3cc-b14fb864d836"></dynamic-object></div>Total US imports are forecast to fall 10.3% year over year in January, 8.5% in February, 16.8% in March and 10.9% in April, according to the latest Global Port Tracker from Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation. Carriers have not dismissed the possibility of additional GRIs in the new year, but as in the latter part of 2025, their efforts will be focused more on maintaining a floor on spot rates as opposed to increasing the ceiling. The next inflection: Trans-Pacific carriers and their customers are looking ahead to two possible developments in 2026 that could further depress freight rates: a forecast 4% increase in global container ship capacity and whether carriers will return to regular transits through the Suez Canal, which could increase effective capacity from Asia to the US East Coast. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The big picture: After an earlier-than-usual July peak season caused by tariff-related frontloading, the trans-Pacific trade enters 2026 in the midst of a deepening demand slowdown. Carriers are hoping a traditional pre-Lunar New Year rush will boost volumes and help buoy spot rates on the largest US trade lane, but the chances of a significant uptick are dwindling rapidly. A look back: Ocean container trade between Asia and the US in 2025 was marked primarily by retailers frontloading imports to reduce the pricing impact of Trump administration tariffs. The administration throughout the year issued more than 100 tariff decisions affecting imports from virtually every country in the world, with the largest increases in duty rates on goods made in China. As a result, containerized US imports from Asia grew 3.2% in the first eight months of 2025 before tumbling 8.8% year over year from September through November, according to data from PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. That volatility in volumes was also evident in the two large spikes in spot rates recorded in the first half, both of which were followed by swift declines. Average pricing from Asia to the US West Coast rose above $5,000 per FEU in early January, fell to $1,600 per FEU in March, rose to a 2025 high of $6,000 per FEU in June and then dropped to $1,700 per FEU in July, according to Platts, also part of S&P Global. Starting Oct. 1, carriers launched a series of bimonthly general rate increases (GRIs) in an attempt to prevent spot rates from collapsing, but the effect of each GRI was short-lived, and by mid-December, Asia-US West Coast spot rates had fallen to $1,270 per FEU, the lowest reading since July 2023. A look ahead: Months of frontloading explain the harsh volume slowdown in the final months of 2025, and with consumer sentiment weak and long-term trade policies still uncertain, US retailers are keeping inventories lean in early 2026. Despite a one-year negotiating pause in reciprocal US-China tariffs that began in November, imports from China still face an effective duty rate of 47%. Retailers are placing orders for spring merchandise cautiously, and the typical rush of factory production and container vessel bookings in the lead up to Lunar New Year celebrations in China are expected to fall flat, leaving volumes well below the levels recorded in 2025. Total US imports are forecast to fall 10.3% year over year in January, 8.5% in February, 16.8% in March and 10.9% in April, according to the latest Global Port Tracker from Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation. Carriers have not dismissed the possibility of additional GRIs in the new year, but as in the latter part of 2025, their efforts will be focused more on maintaining a floor on spot rates as opposed to increasing the ceiling. The next inflection: Trans-Pacific carriers and their customers are looking ahead to two possible developments in 2026 that could further depress freight rates: a forecast 4% increase in global container ship capacity and whether carriers will return to regular transits through the Suez Canal, which could increase effective capacity from Asia to the US East Coast. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .

Tariffs, economic uncertainty weigh on pre-Lunar New Year trans-Pac volumes

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Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) has long been the backbone of global commerce, quietly facilitating trillions in transactions. Yet, despite its critical role, traditional EDI has remained notoriously complex, labor-intensive, viewed as antique, and costly. Companies have historically grappled with cumbersome mapping processes, intricate partner-specific logic, and extended onboarding timelines. Now, as industries increasingly adopt agile digital frameworks, the limitations of conventional EDI solutions have become glaringly apparent. Enter Mosaic, an innovative solution unveiled by Orderful, which promises to radically streamline and modernize EDI integration through artificial intelligence. Orderful, already recognized for simplifying supply chain data exchanges, has now introduced Mosaic as the first AI-enriched EDI integration product that completely removes traditional mapping processes. At its core, Mosaic represents a fundamental shift from legacy EDI protocols, replacing archaic, code-heavy formats such as X12 and EDIFACT with modern, easy to use JSON inputs oriented around system-of-record concepts. This alone significantly lowers the barrier to integration, allowing teams accustomed to modern SaaS API development to seamlessly adopt EDI workflows. Mosaic's AI-powered engine ingests and interprets trading partner requirements as well as millions of actual transactions to build reliable, reuseable, self-healing integration which translating data into partner-specific formats without manual intervention. Such automated adaptability is unprecedented in the EDI landscape and promises a marked reduction in implementation timelines, from what once took months or even years, down to mere weeks. Erik Kiser, founder and CEO of Orderful, understands firsthand the pain points of traditional EDI. Having built integrations himself early in his career, Kiser founded Orderful specifically to address the persistent challenges that frustrate businesses across the supply chain. "Nobody has been more frustrated by EDI than I have," Kiser notes candidly. "Those experiences are precisely why Orderful and now Mosaic exist." Mosaic further distinguishes itself by embedding real-time validation and debugging, streamlining error resolution from lengthy processes into rapid, straightforward fixes. Developers, traditionally burdened by the complexities of partner-specific requirements and intricate coding standards, now gain an intuitive, self-service environment. This reduction in complexity not only accelerates implementation but also reduces operational overhead, offering critical advantages in today’s fast-paced business environment. Brian Roberts, general partner at Andreessen Horowitz and Orderful board member, underscores Mosaic's industry impact: "Mosaic has taken one of the most entrenched bottlenecks in enterprise technology, EDI mapping, and replaced it with an AI-native product that adapts automatically. It’s exactly the type of innovation the industry has been missing." While Mosaic initially supports the complete Order-to-Cash lifecycle, covering purchase orders, acknowledgments, shipping notices, and invoices, the platform is designed for continuous growth and expansion. Orderful sees Mosaic not merely as a product but as a foundational architecture poised to support a broader range of data flows and integrations, aligning perfectly with the scalable requirements of global businesses. “The underlying unified data model not only lets us act as the universal connector, but also enables us to build product once that applies to all partners. This includes EDI functionality like order splitting and consolidation, but also unlocks powerful analytics and insights for our customers to help them grow their business,” said Will Benish, principal product manager at Orderful. Security and reliability are integral to Mosaic’s infrastructure, evidenced by SOC 2 Type II compliance and OAuth 2.0 integration. Additionally, the platform guarantees robust performance, boasting sub-second transaction speeds and immediate access to an extensive network of over 10,000 trading partners. For businesses already utilizing Orderful, Mosaic offers a seamless upgrade pathway, allowing organizations to embrace the future of EDI without disrupting their current trading partner relationships. New clients will find Mosaic’s approach refreshingly modern, providing immediate gains in speed, ease of integration, and scalability. Mosaic represents more than just an incremental improvement; it's a visionary leap forward in how enterprises manage and leverage supply chain data. As businesses grapple with increasingly complex global supply networks, Orderful’s Mosaic emerges as a timely and essential tool, providing clarity, agility, and unprecedented simplicity. Mosaic elevates EDI, providing businesses with a streamlined and efficient pathway to rapidly integrate, adapt, and scale in today's dynamic market. “Mosaic wouldn’t have been possible to build even three years ago. The work our team has put in has been extraordinary, combining cutting edge AI techniques with our deep experience with EDI and our rich library of trading partner guidelines and requirements,” said Benish. To learn more about how Mosaic can transform your EDI capabilities and streamline your integration processes or request a demonstration at <a href="https://www.orderful.com/product/mosaic" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">www.orderful.com/product/mosaic</a>.

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From 1940s Roots to AI-Driven Future: Reinventing EDI for Today's Supply Chains

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<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">With vessel capacity outstripping volumes on the major trade lanes, analysts expect carriers to fall into the red as early as the first quarter, culminating in a multi-billion-dollar combined loss for the full year. </div>

With vessel capacity outstripping volumes on the major trade lanes, analysts expect carriers to fall into the red as early as the first quarter, culminating in a multi-billion-dollar combined loss for the full year.

<div class="phx-topic">The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook. The big picture: A growing imbalance between supply and demand will bring the container shipping industry’s five-year profitability voyage to an end in 2026. With vessel capacity outstripping volumes on the major trade lanes, analysts expect carriers to fall into the red as early as the first quarter, culminating in a multi-billion-dollar combined loss for the full year. A look back: The US tariff mayhem from the Trump administration severely disrupted container shipping on the trans-Pacific, particularly between the US and China. A tit-for-tat, stop-and-go escalation of the trade war between Washington and Beijing led to significant frontloading of US imports and, in turn, a harsher-than-usual slowdown in the final months of 2025. On the Asia-Europe trade lane, a different kind of frontloading caused peak season to begin in May, rather than June. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6143172_0.1.jpg"></img></div>Shippers concerned about longer transit times around southern Africa — in place since the Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea began in late 2023 — moved their imports a month earlier than normal to make sure goods made it on the shelves in time for summer, and strong demand continued through July before beginning to slide in September. Even with a fourth-quarter volume downturn, carriers were on pace to report a combined $20 billion profit in 2025, according to Drewry Shipping Consultants. A look ahead: With that depressed demand expected to linger into 2026, Drewry is forecasting a $10 billion container shipping industry loss for the year. Typically, volumes on the east-west trades out of Asia swell in January as shippers look to restock prior to Lunar New Year celebrations, during which factories in China slow or halt production for two weeks. This year, Asia-Europe forwarders are reporting relatively solid bookings for the month, but trans-Pacific forwarders are skeptical they will see any appreciable growth. The lackluster pre-Lunar New Year demand bodes poorly for the rest of the year, and maritime analysts expect the growing supply-demand imbalance to undermine efforts to raise rates. Global fleet capacity will grow 2.2% to 33.7 million TEUs in 2026, according to Drewry, while global container volumes will rise between 2.5% and 3.5%, according to a forecast from shipowner association Bimco. But the imbalance will be far more apparent on the trans-Pacific. With US retailers keeping inventories lean amid uncertain consumer sentiment and ever-changing tariff policy, Moody’s Ratings forecasts US container volumes will be flat to down 2% compared with 2025. The next inflection: The diversion of container ships away from the Suez Canal mitigated what would have been a significant capacity overhang over the past three years. But analysts warn that if carriers return to the much-faster Suez transits — the likelihood of which increases the longer the Israel-Hamas ceasefire holds — the resulting vessel bunching at ports in Europe will likewise tie up a significant amount of capacity. Those bottlenecks could take months to clear, putting upward pressure on rates and giving carriers some relief from an otherwise bleak earnings outlook. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook. The big picture: A growing imbalance between supply and demand will bring the container shipping industry’s five-year profitability voyage to an end in 2026. With vessel capacity outstripping volumes on the major trade lanes, analysts expect carriers to fall into the red as early as the first quarter, culminating in a multi-billion-dollar combined loss for the full year. A look back: The US tariff mayhem from the Trump administration severely disrupted container shipping on the trans-Pacific, particularly between the US and China. A tit-for-tat, stop-and-go escalation of the trade war between Washington and Beijing led to significant frontloading of US imports and, in turn, a harsher-than-usual slowdown in the final months of 2025. On the Asia-Europe trade lane, a different kind of frontloading caused peak season to begin in May, rather than June. Shippers concerned about longer transit times around southern Africa — in place since the Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea began in late 2023 — moved their imports a month earlier than normal to make sure goods made it on the shelves in time for summer, and strong demand continued through July before beginning to slide in September. Even with a fourth-quarter volume downturn, carriers were on pace to report a combined $20 billion profit in 2025, according to Drewry Shipping Consultants. A look ahead: With that depressed demand expected to linger into 2026, Drewry is forecasting a $10 billion container shipping industry loss for the year. Typically, volumes on the east-west trades out of Asia swell in January as shippers look to restock prior to Lunar New Year celebrations, during which factories in China slow or halt production for two weeks. This year, Asia-Europe forwarders are reporting relatively solid bookings for the month, but trans-Pacific forwarders are skeptical they will see any appreciable growth. The lackluster pre-Lunar New Year demand bodes poorly for the rest of the year, and maritime analysts expect the growing supply-demand imbalance to undermine efforts to raise rates. Global fleet capacity will grow 2.2% to 33.7 million TEUs in 2026, according to Drewry, while global container volumes will rise between 2.5% and 3.5%, according to a forecast from shipowner association Bimco. But the imbalance will be far more apparent on the trans-Pacific. With US retailers keeping inventories lean amid uncertain consumer sentiment and ever-changing tariff policy, Moody’s Ratings forecasts US container volumes will be flat to down 2% compared with 2025. The next inflection: The diversion of container ships away from the Suez Canal mitigated what would have been a significant capacity overhang over the past three years. But analysts warn that if carriers return to the much-faster Suez transits — the likelihood of which increases the longer the Israel-Hamas ceasefire holds — the resulting vessel bunching at ports in Europe will likewise tie up a significant amount of capacity. Those bottlenecks could take months to clear, putting upward pressure on rates and giving carriers some relief from an otherwise bleak earnings outlook. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Supply-demand imbalance puts ocean carriers on course for heavy losses

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">While Union Pacific plans to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to make a combined railroad run smoothly, there are locations where service could degrade should the merger be approved by federal regulators. </div>

While Union Pacific plans to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to make a combined railroad run smoothly, there are locations where service could degrade should the merger be approved by federal regulators.

<div class="phx-topic">Union Pacific Railroad’s (UP’s) proposed $85 billion acquisition of Norfolk Southern Railway (NS) would set up some shippers for faster transits while others will find that new investments on some routes will come at their expense. UP will spend $507 million for dozens of rail infrastructure upgrades across what would be the newly combined network and $516 million to upgrade or expand a dozen terminals expected to see a surge in containers, automobiles and manifest trains should the merger happen. “To achieve the transit-time improvements on certain routes requires making trade-offs,” Union Pacific wrote in the <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/up-in-merger-filing-vows-to-convert-millions-of-loads-to-intermodal-annually-6138380">formal merger application</a> it filed Dec. 19 with federal regulators. “[This] requires changes that have the opposite impact on a route with less traffic.” Fresh investment will go into supporting a new single-line train from Southern California to New Jersey through Kansas City, bypassing Chicago. At UP’s Inland Empire intermodal terminal in Southern California, daily lifts are projected to rise by approximately 400%. To handle the increase, the railroad plans to invest $58 million there. The Norfolk Southern terminals in Cincinnati and Toledo, Ohio, are expected to see daily lifts more than double within three years of the merger, prompting a combined $52.5 million in planned investment. In Council Bluffs, Iowa, where lifts are projected to increase 163%, UP plans to spend $75.4 million to expand capacity. Track infrastructure supporting the trains also will be upgraded. The combined railroad would invest $136.6 million in infrastructure between Kansas City and Butler, Indiana, to support faster Southern California-Northeast intermodal trains. Another $172.3 million would be spent between New Orleans and Atlanta to strengthen the Laredo and Houston intermodal trains. The money will go to more than two dozen projects to improve the tracks and bridges in those areas to handle the additional post-merger volume. Achieving that vision, however, requires trade-offs that could leave other shippers disadvantaged. Rail rivals have warned about those risks in filings with the US Surface Transportation Board (STB), arguing that UP’s merger application understates the downside. Canadian National Railway said the application omits required market analyses, while CSX Transportation wrote that UP’s growth plan relies on outdated or incomplete data, overemphasizing the benefits while masking where service would degrade. In comments filed with the STB earlier this week, the two railroads asked regulators to deem UP’s application incomplete. The STB must decide whether the application is complete before Jan. 20; if the application is deemed incomplete, UP would need to fix any deficiencies and resubmit the document before regulators can resume their review. <h3>Terminals that could be logjammed </h3>While several intermodal terminals would be expanded post-merger, others will have a sharp increase in volume but receive little or no investment. In Minneapolis, container lifts are projected to increase 343%, yet no terminal upgrades are planned. UP said the intermodal terminal would be overcapacity post-merger, only a few years after <a href="https://www.up.com/news/service/twin-cities-intermodal-it-221212">hundreds of millions</a> were poured into the facility. UP said intermodal volume increased 94% in Minneapolis between 2023 and 2024, but there was “<a href="https://www.up.com/news/growth/twin-cities-intermodal-it-250317">ample capacity remaining for future expansion</a>.” Instead, UP wrote in the application that mitigation in Minneapolis would include working with customers to reduce container dwells and exploring off-site parking options. In Tacoma, Washington, container lifts are expected to rise 44%, also without terminal investment. UP said it would seek to address capacity constraints by coordinating with the terminal operator to extend operating hours. The Tacoma terminal was one location that saw <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/tacoma-marine-terminals-grappling-with-heavy-import-rail-congestion-5706377">a massive influx in international intermodal volume</a> in 2024. At NS’ Croxton terminal in Jersey City, daily lifts would rise 67% but receive only $7.3 million in capital spending. UP said it may reopen NS’ E-Rail terminal in nearby Elizabeth, if necessary. In Atlanta, container lifts at the Austell terminal would increase by 24%. The land-constrained terminal would not receive new capital investments, but UP will revive intermodal operations in Birmingham, Alabama, and NS also owns a smaller yard about 15 minutes away near downtown Atlanta. <h3>Shippers who might not benefit </h3>One group of shippers who would experience longer transits post-merger are those using trains from Southern California to Memphis and St. Louis. UP identified 191 domestic containers per day that will be removed in Greggton, Texas — between Dallas and Shreveport — and transferred to a second train to Memphis and St. Louis post-merger. On an annual basis, nearly 70,000 containers currently moving on a direct train would face at least a four-hour layover. That delay assumes the first and second trains run on time, much like two connecting flights at an airport. UP said the Memphis diversions are necessary to build new expedited intermodal trains over the Meridian Speedway to Atlanta, Charlotte, and Jacksonville, saving shippers between 70 and 96 hours of transit time. The Meridian Speedway itself, a nearly 300-mile corridor linking Shreveport, Louisiana, and Meridian, Mississippi, presents additional uncertainty. UP’s merger application calls for the new trains to average nearly 11,000 feet long, but Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC), which owns 75% of the Meridian joint venture to NS’ 25%, limits train lengths to 8,500 feet. UP acknowledged that Meridian Speedway expedited trains “might be split into a second train,” introducing additional dwell that would cut into the 70- to 96-hour savings. Union Pacific also highlighted how 185 intermodal routes, totaling more than 300,000 containers annually, would see fewer handlings or layovers under a post-merger operating plan. However, UP provided no details on 62 of the routes representing about 20,000 containers that would see additional handling. “Any change to train and blocking plans and any yard or terminal rationalization creates a risk of service degradation to the extent plans are flawed in design or execution,” Union Pacific wrote in its application. “[We] will not make any merger-related changes that cannot be reversed, if necessary.” Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Union Pacific Railroad’s (UP’s) proposed $85 billion acquisition of Norfolk Southern Railway (NS) would set up some shippers for faster transits while others will find that new investments on some routes will come at their expense. UP will spend $507 million for dozens of rail infrastructure upgrades across what would be the newly combined network and $516 million to upgrade or expand a dozen terminals expected to see a surge in containers, automobiles and manifest trains should the merger happen. “To achieve the transit-time improvements on certain routes requires making trade-offs,” Union Pacific wrote in the formal merger application it filed Dec. 19 with federal regulators. “[This] requires changes that have the opposite impact on a route with less traffic.” Fresh investment will go into supporting a new single-line train from Southern California to New Jersey through Kansas City, bypassing Chicago. At UP’s Inland Empire intermodal terminal in Southern California, daily lifts are projected to rise by approximately 400%. To handle the increase, the railroad plans to invest $58 million there. The Norfolk Southern terminals in Cincinnati and Toledo, Ohio, are expected to see daily lifts more than double within three years of the merger, prompting a combined $52.5 million in planned investment. In Council Bluffs, Iowa, where lifts are projected to increase 163%, UP plans to spend $75.4 million to expand capacity. Track infrastructure supporting the trains also will be upgraded. The combined railroad would invest $136.6 million in infrastructure between Kansas City and Butler, Indiana, to support faster Southern California-Northeast intermodal trains. Another $172.3 million would be spent between New Orleans and Atlanta to strengthen the Laredo and Houston intermodal trains. The money will go to more than two dozen projects to improve the tracks and bridges in those areas to handle the additional post-merger volume. Achieving that vision, however, requires trade-offs that could leave other shippers disadvantaged. Rail rivals have warned about those risks in filings with the US Surface Transportation Board (STB), arguing that UP’s merger application understates the downside. Canadian National Railway said the application omits required market analyses, while CSX Transportation wrote that UP’s growth plan relies on outdated or incomplete data, overemphasizing the benefits while masking where service would degrade. In comments filed with the STB earlier this week, the two railroads asked regulators to deem UP’s application incomplete. The STB must decide whether the application is complete before Jan. 20; if the application is deemed incomplete, UP would need to fix any deficiencies and resubmit the document before regulators can resume their review. Terminals that could be logjammed While several intermodal terminals would be expanded post-merger, others will have a sharp increase in volume but receive little or no investment. In Minneapolis, container lifts are projected to increase 343%, yet no terminal upgrades are planned. UP said the intermodal terminal would be overcapacity post-merger, only a few years after hundreds of millions were poured into the facility. UP said intermodal volume increased 94% in Minneapolis between 2023 and 2024, but there was “ ample capacity remaining for future expansion .” Instead, UP wrote in the application that mitigation in Minneapolis would include working with customers to reduce container dwells and exploring off-site parking options. In Tacoma, Washington, container lifts are expected to rise 44%, also without terminal investment. UP said it would seek to address capacity constraints by coordinating with the terminal operator to extend operating hours. The Tacoma terminal was one location that saw a massive influx in international intermodal volume in 2024. At NS’ Croxton terminal in Jersey City, daily lifts would rise 67% but receive only $7.3 million in capital spending. UP said it may reopen NS’ E-Rail terminal in nearby Elizabeth, if necessary. In Atlanta, container lifts at the Austell terminal would increase by 24%. The land-constrained terminal would not receive new capital investments, but UP will revive intermodal operations in Birmingham, Alabama, and NS also owns a smaller yard about 15 minutes away near downtown Atlanta. Shippers who might not benefit One group of shippers who would experience longer transits post-merger are those using trains from Southern California to Memphis and St. Louis. UP identified 191 domestic containers per day that will be removed in Greggton, Texas — between Dallas and Shreveport — and transferred to a second train to Memphis and St. Louis post-merger. On an annual basis, nearly 70,000 containers currently moving on a direct train would face at least a four-hour layover. That delay assumes the first and second trains run on time, much like two connecting flights at an airport. UP said the Memphis diversions are necessary to build new expedited intermodal trains over the Meridian Speedway to Atlanta, Charlotte, and Jacksonville, saving shippers between 70 and 96 hours of transit time. The Meridian Speedway itself, a nearly 300-mile corridor linking Shreveport, Louisiana, and Meridian, Mississippi, presents additional uncertainty. UP’s merger application calls for the new trains to average nearly 11,000 feet long, but Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC), which owns 75% of the Meridian joint venture to NS’ 25%, limits train lengths to 8,500 feet. UP acknowledged that Meridian Speedway expedited trains “might be split into a second train,” introducing additional dwell that would cut into the 70- to 96-hour savings. Union Pacific also highlighted how 185 intermodal routes, totaling more than 300,000 containers annually, would see fewer handlings or layovers under a post-merger operating plan. However, UP provided no details on 62 of the routes representing about 20,000 containers that would see additional handling. “Any change to train and blocking plans and any yard or terminal rationalization creates a risk of service degradation to the extent plans are flawed in design or execution,” Union Pacific wrote in its application. “[We] will not make any merger-related changes that cannot be reversed, if necessary.” Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Intermodal providers

UP-NS deal could benefit some shippers, while others face longer transits

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Intermodal marketing companies have long been at a disadvantage because rail-owned containers lacked the real-time tracking and tracing capabilities that are standard among private fleets.</div>

Intermodal marketing companies have long been at a disadvantage because rail-owned containers lacked the real-time tracking and tracing capabilities that are standard among private fleets.

<div class="phx-topic">A multiyear effort to install GPS devices on approximately 75,000 rail-owned intermodal containers shared among several North American Class I railroads has been completed, according to Union Pacific Railroad (UP), closing a visibility gap that gave private container owners a strategic advantage in negotiations with shippers. UP owns and operates the container fleet, which also runs on the networks of Canadian National Railway, CSX Transportation, Norfolk Southern Railway and Mexico’s Ferromex. “This is another meaningful step as we deliver the best customer experience possible,” Kenny Rocker, UP’s executive vice president of sales, said in a statement on Monday. “By combining GPS-enabled containers with real-time data and smarter visibility tools, we’re providing the transparency and reliability our customers depend on.” The rail-owned containers are a critical resource for non-asset intermodal marketing companies (IMC), which compete directly for shipper freight with private container owners such as Hub Group, J.B. Hunt Transport Services and Schneider National. IMCs have long been at a disadvantage because rail-owned containers lacked the real-time tracking and tracing capabilities that are standard among private fleets. By contrast, real-time visibility is now common across the US truckload sector. Closing that gap has taken on added importance as UP’s projections for truckload-to-rail conversions are a pillar of its <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/up-in-merger-filing-vows-to-convert-millions-of-loads-to-intermodal-annually-6138380">case before the US Surface Transportation Board</a> as it seeks approval of its proposed acquisition of Norfolk Southern. Real-time location tracking of the rail-owned boxes will be available through the Blume Global platform and will support e-mail notifications, geofencing and application programming interface (API) connectivity. The move also introduces potential risk, however, as much of the freight moving in rail-owned containers already relies on Blume Global software; the logistics technology provider was the target of a cyberattack in 2022. Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

A multiyear effort to install GPS devices on approximately 75,000 rail-owned intermodal containers shared among several North American Class I railroads has been completed, according to Union Pacific Railroad (UP), closing a visibility gap that gave private container owners a strategic advantage in negotiations with shippers. UP owns and operates the container fleet, which also runs on the networks of Canadian National Railway, CSX Transportation, Norfolk Southern Railway and Mexico’s Ferromex. “This is another meaningful step as we deliver the best customer experience possible,” Kenny Rocker, UP’s executive vice president of sales, said in a statement on Monday. “By combining GPS-enabled containers with real-time data and smarter visibility tools, we’re providing the transparency and reliability our customers depend on.” The rail-owned containers are a critical resource for non-asset intermodal marketing companies (IMC), which compete directly for shipper freight with private container owners such as Hub Group, J.B. Hunt Transport Services and Schneider National. IMCs have long been at a disadvantage because rail-owned containers lacked the real-time tracking and tracing capabilities that are standard among private fleets. By contrast, real-time visibility is now common across the US truckload sector. Closing that gap has taken on added importance as UP’s projections for truckload-to-rail conversions are a pillar of its case before the US Surface Transportation Board as it seeks approval of its proposed acquisition of Norfolk Southern. Real-time location tracking of the rail-owned boxes will be available through the Blume Global platform and will support e-mail notifications, geofencing and application programming interface (API) connectivity. The move also introduces potential risk, however, as much of the freight moving in rail-owned containers already relies on Blume Global software; the logistics technology provider was the target of a cyberattack in 2022. Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

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