<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">But the recommendations will not include guidance on handling empty container returns, as port stakeholders see it as a separate issue.</div>

But the recommendations will not include guidance on handling empty container returns, as port stakeholders see it as a separate issue.

Feature image

<div class="phx-topic">A stakeholder group looking at truck appointment systems at Port of New York and New Jersey marine terminals is expected to release its recommendations this month, which steer clear of how those systems address empty container returns. The management of empty returns has been critical for the port’s truckers, but something that other stakeholders said was outside of the group’s legal limits. Beth Rooney, port director for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, said at a state of the port event last week that one of her priorities in 2026 is drafting a plan for “moving forward” on 11 final recommendations from the Appointment Systems Working Group (ASWG). “We’re going to step out with draft work plans for how we as a council and hopefully many of you would be willing to help advance those initiatives,” Rooney said to event attendees. ASWG was formed in June 2024 under the auspices of the Council for Port (CPP) Performance, the Port Authority-led discussion group established in 2014 to address stakeholder concerns about cargo operations. The AWSG was formed because “appointment challenges and system outages have presented elevated traffic issues,” the CPP said in July 2024 meeting minutes. One of the main problems the working group identified was the difficulty some truckers face when making a double-move appointment for an empty container return and an import retrieval. The problem was especially bad in the wake of the pandemic due to the high number of empty containers left at the port. Rooney said that even though AWSG sought to include empty container returns in its draft recommendations, the final set will not include any references to the issue. Instead, those will be addressed in a separate set of recommendations. The commercial terms governing empty container handling by truckers became the main hangup for others in the AWSG. Marine terminal operators and ocean carriers also warned the group’s draft recommendations veered into legal and anti-trust issues by requiring marine terminals to offer empty return appointments or that ocean carriers compensate truckers for off-dock empty container returns. Sustainable Terminal Services, a consortium of NY-NJ terminal operators, said in a December letter the AWSG’s draft recommendations “raised significant legal and federal regulatory concerns” by imposing “commercial and financial terms and requirements on particular parties on a collective basis.” The Ocean Carrier Equipment Management Association (OCEMA) was also prepared to withhold support for the AWSG recommendations unless references to empty container returns were removed or a disclaimer was included to say the recommendations were not the CPP’s consensus view. “OCEMA remains committed to working with other stakeholders to find ways to create efficiencies and improve operations in the port,” OCEMA’s letter said. “If this is to be done successfully through the CPP, there needs to be clarity as to the scope of inquiry.” <h3>Off-dock empty returns </h3>The AWSG was formed in response to the growing pains stemming from the rollout of appointment systems, and especially how they impacted truckers during the pandemic. Port Liberty New Jersey rolled out a half-day appointment system in 2016, while APM Terminals started its full-day system in 2020. By November 2024, APM added the ability to make double-move appointments and reported gate processing improvements, CPP minutes show. By March 2025, APM reported truckers were using up to 80% of the available appointments for returning empty containers. APM’s ability to offer double-move appointments, though, depends on how much space it has for empty containers, which itself depends on how quickly they are removed by ocean carriers. To help manage its empty container inventories, APM also began directing some truckers to “off-dock empty storage” in February 2025, meeting minutes show. Truckers say directing empties to the site just outside the port district adds to traffic and makes it difficult to even meet single-move appointments. But Rooney said the recommendations can’t direct marine terminals on offer double-move appointments for all empties or require paying for an off-dock move. “The CPP has no authority to force anyone to do anything,” Rooney said. “That becomes a contractual issue that we can’t delve into.” Instead, the separate, sector-specific recommendations say ocean carriers should proactively and constantly manage their empty container inventory and regularly evacuate to ensure balance in the port area. Lisa Yakomin, president of the Association of Bi-State Motor Carriers, which represents the port’s drayage carriers, said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce that her group’s members look to bring the issue of empty container management before the Federal Maritime Commission and will look to have the issue addressed in standardized container handling contracts administered by the Intermodal Association of North America. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

A stakeholder group looking at truck appointment systems at Port of New York and New Jersey marine terminals is expected to release its recommendations this month, which steer clear of how those systems address empty container returns. The management of empty returns has been critical for the port’s truckers, but something that other stakeholders said was outside of the group’s legal limits. Beth Rooney, port director for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, said at a state of the port event last week that one of her priorities in 2026 is drafting a plan for “moving forward” on 11 final recommendations from the Appointment Systems Working Group (ASWG). “We’re going to step out with draft work plans for how we as a council and hopefully many of you would be willing to help advance those initiatives,” Rooney said to event attendees. ASWG was formed in June 2024 under the auspices of the Council for Port (CPP) Performance, the Port Authority-led discussion group established in 2014 to address stakeholder concerns about cargo operations. The AWSG was formed because “appointment challenges and system outages have presented elevated traffic issues,” the CPP said in July 2024 meeting minutes. One of the main problems the working group identified was the difficulty some truckers face when making a double-move appointment for an empty container return and an import retrieval. The problem was especially bad in the wake of the pandemic due to the high number of empty containers left at the port. Rooney said that even though AWSG sought to include empty container returns in its draft recommendations, the final set will not include any references to the issue. Instead, those will be addressed in a separate set of recommendations. The commercial terms governing empty container handling by truckers became the main hangup for others in the AWSG. Marine terminal operators and ocean carriers also warned the group’s draft recommendations veered into legal and anti-trust issues by requiring marine terminals to offer empty return appointments or that ocean carriers compensate truckers for off-dock empty container returns. Sustainable Terminal Services, a consortium of NY-NJ terminal operators, said in a December letter the AWSG’s draft recommendations “raised significant legal and federal regulatory concerns” by imposing “commercial and financial terms and requirements on particular parties on a collective basis.” The Ocean Carrier Equipment Management Association (OCEMA) was also prepared to withhold support for the AWSG recommendations unless references to empty container returns were removed or a disclaimer was included to say the recommendations were not the CPP’s consensus view. “OCEMA remains committed to working with other stakeholders to find ways to create efficiencies and improve operations in the port,” OCEMA’s letter said. “If this is to be done successfully through the CPP, there needs to be clarity as to the scope of inquiry.” Off-dock empty returns The AWSG was formed in response to the growing pains stemming from the rollout of appointment systems, and especially how they impacted truckers during the pandemic. Port Liberty New Jersey rolled out a half-day appointment system in 2016, while APM Terminals started its full-day system in 2020. By November 2024, APM added the ability to make double-move appointments and reported gate processing improvements, CPP minutes show. By March 2025, APM reported truckers were using up to 80% of the available appointments for returning empty containers. APM’s ability to offer double-move appointments, though, depends on how much space it has for empty containers, which itself depends on how quickly they are removed by ocean carriers. To help manage its empty container inventories, APM also began directing some truckers to “off-dock empty storage” in February 2025, meeting minutes show. Truckers say directing empties to the site just outside the port district adds to traffic and makes it difficult to even meet single-move appointments. But Rooney said the recommendations can’t direct marine terminals on offer double-move appointments for all empties or require paying for an off-dock move. “The CPP has no authority to force anyone to do anything,” Rooney said. “That becomes a contractual issue that we can’t delve into.” Instead, the separate, sector-specific recommendations say ocean carriers should proactively and constantly manage their empty container inventory and regularly evacuate to ensure balance in the port area. Lisa Yakomin, president of the Association of Bi-State Motor Carriers, which represents the port’s drayage carriers, said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce that her group’s members look to bring the issue of empty container management before the Federal Maritime Commission and will look to have the issue addressed in standardized container handling contracts administered by the Intermodal Association of North America. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Port News

Drayage

North American ports

Marine terminals

Maritime

NY-NJ port readying to guide terminals on truck appointment systems

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The carrier reported a steep drop in profitability as declining rates combined with higher costs of rerouting ships around southern Africa and startup expenses for the Gemini network.</div>

The carrier reported a steep drop in profitability as declining rates combined with higher costs of rerouting ships around southern Africa and startup expenses for the Gemini network.

<div class="phx-topic">A solid increase in Hapag-Lloyd’s Gemini Cooperation-driven volume last year and cost savings across the new network were not enough to offset a sharply correcting market in 2025, the carrier said Monday. Hapag-Lloyd reported a steep drop in profitability for the year as declining rates combined with the higher costs of rerouting ships around southern Africa and startup expenses for the Gemini network to weigh on its 2025 results. Hapag-Lloyd launched the Gemini network with partner Maersk in February 2025. “Robust growth in global trade and the new Gemini network led to an 8% increase in the transport volume to 13.5 million TEUs,” Hapag-Lloyd said in a statement on its preliminary 2025 results. The carrier provided no after-tax figures; its full annual report with a 2026 outlook will be unveiled March 26. Even as demand rose, it was mirrored by a drop in average rates that were down 8% year over year at $1,376 per TEU. That led to full-year revenue falling 1.9% to $21.1 billion and earnings before interest, taxes, amortization and depreciation (EBITDA) declining 28% to $3.6 billion. While earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) were down 60% at $1.1 billion, they was at the higher end of the profitability forecast Hapag-Lloyd gave the market following the announcement of its nine-month results last November. <h3>Gemini savings kicking in </h3>The results showed that much of the 2025 financial damage occurred in the fourth quarter, similar to <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/gemini-benefits-face-looming-challenge-from-oversupplied-market-maersk-ceo-6164887">the full-year earnings of Maersk</a> and <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/frontloading-drags-one-to-a-loss-in-its-fiscal-third-quarter-6161263">the fiscal third-quarter results of Ocean Network Express</a>. Hapag-Lloyd’s fourth-quarter volume was up 6% year over year, but revenue fell 7.4% to $5 billion, EBITDA dropped 42% to $800 million and EBIT for the quarter was down 75% at $200 million. “On the other hand, Gemini-related cost savings started kicking in during the second half of 2025 and will be fully realized in 2026,” the carrier said. Hapag-Lloyd’s savings to be generated by Gemini are expected to be between $350 million and $400 million, which is approximately 40% of a total $1 billion in savings the carrier expects to have in place by the end of this year as part of an aggressive cost-savings program across its overall network. Hapag-Lloyd did not provide financials for its Hanseatic Global Terminals division, but it is a key part of the Gemini network. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd control most of their terminal network, which gives the carriers greater berth access and handling productivity than common user facilities, especially in the congested hubs of Europe. That access saw Maersk reporting a record performance in its terminals division in 2025. Maritime consultant Drewry has upgraded its financial year 2025 profit forecast from $20 billion to $32 billion following “better than expected” third-quarter results from carriers and raised the outlook for 2026 from a $10 billion loss to a $1 billion profit. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/frontloading-drags-one-to-a-loss-in-its-fiscal-third-quarter-6161263">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

A solid increase in Hapag-Lloyd’s Gemini Cooperation-driven volume last year and cost savings across the new network were not enough to offset a sharply correcting market in 2025, the carrier said Monday. Hapag-Lloyd reported a steep drop in profitability for the year as declining rates combined with the higher costs of rerouting ships around southern Africa and startup expenses for the Gemini network to weigh on its 2025 results. Hapag-Lloyd launched the Gemini network with partner Maersk in February 2025. “Robust growth in global trade and the new Gemini network led to an 8% increase in the transport volume to 13.5 million TEUs,” Hapag-Lloyd said in a statement on its preliminary 2025 results. The carrier provided no after-tax figures; its full annual report with a 2026 outlook will be unveiled March 26. Even as demand rose, it was mirrored by a drop in average rates that were down 8% year over year at $1,376 per TEU. That led to full-year revenue falling 1.9% to $21.1 billion and earnings before interest, taxes, amortization and depreciation (EBITDA) declining 28% to $3.6 billion. While earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) were down 60% at $1.1 billion, they was at the higher end of the profitability forecast Hapag-Lloyd gave the market following the announcement of its nine-month results last November. Gemini savings kicking in The results showed that much of the 2025 financial damage occurred in the fourth quarter, similar to the full-year earnings of Maersk and the fiscal third-quarter results of Ocean Network Express . Hapag-Lloyd’s fourth-quarter volume was up 6% year over year, but revenue fell 7.4% to $5 billion, EBITDA dropped 42% to $800 million and EBIT for the quarter was down 75% at $200 million. “On the other hand, Gemini-related cost savings started kicking in during the second half of 2025 and will be fully realized in 2026,” the carrier said. Hapag-Lloyd’s savings to be generated by Gemini are expected to be between $350 million and $400 million, which is approximately 40% of a total $1 billion in savings the carrier expects to have in place by the end of this year as part of an aggressive cost-savings program across its overall network. Hapag-Lloyd did not provide financials for its Hanseatic Global Terminals division, but it is a key part of the Gemini network. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd control most of their terminal network, which gives the carriers greater berth access and handling productivity than common user facilities, especially in the congested hubs of Europe. That access saw Maersk reporting a record performance in its terminals division in 2025. Maritime consultant Drewry has upgraded its financial year 2025 profit forecast from $20 billion to $32 billion following “better than expected” third-quarter results from carriers and raised the outlook for 2026 from a $10 billion loss to a $1 billion profit. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Container lines

Container Shipping News

Fourth-quarter rate slump drags down Hapag-Lloyd’s 2025 financials

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The entire port workforce walked off the job almost two weeks ago to protest a government decision to lease the port’s busiest terminal to DP World.</div>

The entire port workforce walked off the job almost two weeks ago to protest a government decision to lease the port’s busiest terminal to DP World.

<div class="phx-topic">Container flows in and out of Bangladesh’s Chittagong Port resumed Monday after dockworkers and port employees suspended their nearly two-week-long strike until Feb. 15 “in the national interest,” local industry sources told the Journal of Commerce. The entire Chittagong port workforce <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/labor-strike-at-chittagong-port-cripples-bangladesh-container-flows-6164202">had walked off the job</a> to protest a government decision to lease the port’s busiest facility, the New Mooring Container Terminal (NMCT), to DP World. Workers agreed to return to work in view of the country’s upcoming general elections and the need to handle Ramadan-related festival cargo, according to the Chattogram Bandar Rokkha Sangram Parishad, the labor group spearheading the industrial action. The group said in a statement it returned to work “to ensure uninterrupted release of essential goods.” Port authorities are also believed to have assured labor representatives that the incumbent government would not push through the NMCT leasing deal. But it remained unclear whether workers would start a new strike next weekend. “All terminals within Chittagong [Chattogram] Port are expected to restart operations, and our teams are already in close coordination with port authorities, terminal operators and relevant stakeholders to support a smooth and safe ramp-up of cargo movement,” Maersk said in a customer advisory. “We will continue to monitor the situation closely.” However, local shipping sources do not expect supply chain operations at Bangladesh’s main gateway to normalize anytime soon, citing huge cargo backlogs and the risk of renewed disruption. “The dock is severely congested, and it is unlikely that many waiting vessels will be able to secure berths over the next few days,” a Chittagong-based ship agent who didn’t want to be identified told the Journal of Commerce. Contact Bency Mathew at <a href="mailto:bencyvmathew@gmail.com">bencyvmathew@gmail.com</a>. </div>

Container flows in and out of Bangladesh’s Chittagong Port resumed Monday after dockworkers and port employees suspended their nearly two-week-long strike until Feb. 15 “in the national interest,” local industry sources told the Journal of Commerce. The entire Chittagong port workforce had walked off the job to protest a government decision to lease the port’s busiest facility, the New Mooring Container Terminal (NMCT), to DP World. Workers agreed to return to work in view of the country’s upcoming general elections and the need to handle Ramadan-related festival cargo, according to the Chattogram Bandar Rokkha Sangram Parishad, the labor group spearheading the industrial action. The group said in a statement it returned to work “to ensure uninterrupted release of essential goods.” Port authorities are also believed to have assured labor representatives that the incumbent government would not push through the NMCT leasing deal. But it remained unclear whether workers would start a new strike next weekend. “All terminals within Chittagong [Chattogram] Port are expected to restart operations, and our teams are already in close coordination with port authorities, terminal operators and relevant stakeholders to support a smooth and safe ramp-up of cargo movement,” Maersk said in a customer advisory. “We will continue to monitor the situation closely.” However, local shipping sources do not expect supply chain operations at Bangladesh’s main gateway to normalize anytime soon, citing huge cargo backlogs and the risk of renewed disruption. “The dock is severely congested, and it is unlikely that many waiting vessels will be able to secure berths over the next few days,” a Chittagong-based ship agent who didn’t want to be identified told the Journal of Commerce. Contact Bency Mathew at bencyvmathew@gmail.com .

International ports

Longshore labor

Bangladesh boxes begin to move as Chittagong port workers suspend strike

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Ship operators say a return to the Red Sea hinges on broad shipper acceptance across multi-shipper voyages, according to a survey conducted by One World Shipbrokers. </div>

Ship operators say a return to the Red Sea hinges on broad shipper acceptance across multi-shipper voyages, according to a survey conducted by One World Shipbrokers.

<div class="phx-topic">Multipurpose vessel (MPV) operators remain deeply opposed to a return to Red Sea transits despite moves by container lines to resume trade corridors through the Suez Canal. Gemini Cooperation partners Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/maersk-hapag-lloyd-confirm-theyll-route-gemini-service-through-suez-6163432">announced Feb. 3</a> that vessels in their ME11/IMX service will be routed through the Suez Canal in mid-February, marking the first time in more than two years that a Gemini service has transited the Red Sea. However, in the Jan. 28 One World Shipbrokers’ Market Sentiment Index (MSI), Justin Archard, founder and senior shipbroker at the company, surveyed 26 MPV operators and asked them to rate from 1 to 10 how willing they are to transit the Red Sea and/or Suez Canal based on current conditions. A score of 1 indicated “no way” and 10 equaled “no problem.” Half of the respondents gave a score of 1, while only three scored higher than 5 and no carrier replied with a 10. The mean response was 2.8. The carriers that showed more of a tendency to consider Suez transits were semi-liner MPV operators that typically operate higher deadweight tonnage. Suez Canal transits generally trended upward in 2025 but still remain 50% lower than they were in late 2023, Archard said. A contributor to the MSI survey said that a return to Suez transits hinges on securing broad shipper acceptance across multi-shipper voyages, yet getting everyone aligned is proving to be “a challenge.” <h3>Stable market conditions prevail </h3>The 20th edition of the MSI for the MPV and breakbulk industry showed a third successive — albeit modest — rise to a level of 53.4, from 53.3. The MSI averages responses from an anonymous group of 20 to 30 MPV owners and operators to a set of breakbulk shipping-related questions. A reading of 50 is neutral, indicating a static market. Scores below 50 show pessimism or wariness, while a score above 50 indicates optimism. This tallied with the Feb. 6 Toepfer Multipurpose Index (TMI) assessment of $12,701 per day for February, up from $12,648 per day in January. Toepfer’s TMI is based on expected average rates for six- to 12-month time charters for 12,500-deadweight ton “F-Type” vessels with safe working loads (SWLs) of 240-360 metric tons, as reported to Toepfer by owners and operators. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="b18155ea-a9ea-4cd7-a428-29704663b957"></dynamic-object></div>“The sideways movement in MPV charter rates continues despite the approach of the Chinese New Year celebrations, which generally cause import and export activities in Chinese ports to cease for about a week,” said Toepfer Transport. “The TMI rate is rising slightly, and the majority of carriers are expressing positive sentiment.” Archard said the MPV sector entered 2026 in “a balanced and resilient position,” maintaining a positive outlook for the year. “Forecasts made 12 months ago for improving market conditions have proven demonstrably correct, even inside the maelstrom of uncertainty,” he said. The outlook for the next MSI, due for publication at the end of April, points to a further modest increase, although a contributor to the MSI warned that the longer-term outlook is still driven by uncertainty. “Several elections in the Americas this year, coupled with a slow political move to the right, bodes well for mining and oil and gas, but less well for renewables in the Americas,” the respondent said. Contact Carly Fields at <a href="mailto:carly.fields@spglobal.com">carly.fields@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Multipurpose vessel (MPV) operators remain deeply opposed to a return to Red Sea transits despite moves by container lines to resume trade corridors through the Suez Canal. Gemini Cooperation partners Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced Feb. 3 that vessels in their ME11/IMX service will be routed through the Suez Canal in mid-February, marking the first time in more than two years that a Gemini service has transited the Red Sea. However, in the Jan. 28 One World Shipbrokers’ Market Sentiment Index (MSI), Justin Archard, founder and senior shipbroker at the company, surveyed 26 MPV operators and asked them to rate from 1 to 10 how willing they are to transit the Red Sea and/or Suez Canal based on current conditions. A score of 1 indicated “no way” and 10 equaled “no problem.” Half of the respondents gave a score of 1, while only three scored higher than 5 and no carrier replied with a 10. The mean response was 2.8. The carriers that showed more of a tendency to consider Suez transits were semi-liner MPV operators that typically operate higher deadweight tonnage. Suez Canal transits generally trended upward in 2025 but still remain 50% lower than they were in late 2023, Archard said. A contributor to the MSI survey said that a return to Suez transits hinges on securing broad shipper acceptance across multi-shipper voyages, yet getting everyone aligned is proving to be “a challenge.” Stable market conditions prevail The 20th edition of the MSI for the MPV and breakbulk industry showed a third successive — albeit modest — rise to a level of 53.4, from 53.3. The MSI averages responses from an anonymous group of 20 to 30 MPV owners and operators to a set of breakbulk shipping-related questions. A reading of 50 is neutral, indicating a static market. Scores below 50 show pessimism or wariness, while a score above 50 indicates optimism. This tallied with the Feb. 6 Toepfer Multipurpose Index (TMI) assessment of $12,701 per day for February, up from $12,648 per day in January. Toepfer’s TMI is based on expected average rates for six- to 12-month time charters for 12,500-deadweight ton “F-Type” vessels with safe working loads (SWLs) of 240-360 metric tons, as reported to Toepfer by owners and operators. “The sideways movement in MPV charter rates continues despite the approach of the Chinese New Year celebrations, which generally cause import and export activities in Chinese ports to cease for about a week,” said Toepfer Transport. “The TMI rate is rising slightly, and the majority of carriers are expressing positive sentiment.” Archard said the MPV sector entered 2026 in “a balanced and resilient position,” maintaining a positive outlook for the year. “Forecasts made 12 months ago for improving market conditions have proven demonstrably correct, even inside the maelstrom of uncertainty,” he said. The outlook for the next MSI, due for publication at the end of April, points to a further modest increase, although a contributor to the MSI warned that the longer-term outlook is still driven by uncertainty. “Several elections in the Americas this year, coupled with a slow political move to the right, bodes well for mining and oil and gas, but less well for renewables in the Americas,” the respondent said. Contact Carly Fields at carly.fields@spglobal.com .

Breakbulk carriers

Breakbulk News

MPV carriers emphatic on no resumption of Suez transits under current conditions

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The new vessels are shorter and narrower than most 400-meter megaships that are mostly confined to the Asia-Europe trade, giving the carrier more deployment options across its global network. </div>

The new vessels are shorter and narrower than most 400-meter megaships that are mostly confined to the Asia-Europe trade, giving the carrier more deployment options across its global network.

<div class="phx-topic">Maersk has opted for greater flexibility around vessel deployment in a new order for eight 18,600-TEU dual-fuel ships that are part of its ongoing fleet renewal program, the carrier announced Monday. The new vessels — to be delivered in 2029 and 2030 — are shorter and narrower than most 400-meter megaships that are mostly confined to the Asia-Europe trade, giving Maersk more deployment options across its global network. “Deployment flexibility has been a key factor in our decision-making,” Anda Cristescu, head of chartering and newbuilding at Maersk, said in a statement. “Although these vessels are large, they offer greater flexibility than the largest ships currently being built in our industry. This provides us with multiple deployment options across both our current and future network.” The eight-vessel order was signed with China’s New Times Shipbuilding Co. The ships will be equipped with dual-fuel engines able to operate on conventional bunker fuel or liquified natural gas (LNG). Financial terms of the order were not disclosed. Maersk now has 33 ships on order, four of which are scheduled to be delivered this year. Following 4.3% growth in its fleet in 2025, Maersk’s total in-service capacity reached 4.6 million TEUs. The increase in capacity was attributed to an early 2025 injection to support strong demand when the Gemini Cooperation with Hapag-Lloyd was launched a year ago, with utilization of 94% in the third quarter continuing through the fourth quarter. “We seek to protect the high asset turns we have achieved with Gemini, which will allow us to carry more containers with our existing fleet so we can grow with minimal fleet expansion,” Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said during an earnings call with analysts last week. Maersk’s volume in 2025 increased 4.9% to just shy of 13 million FEUs. <h3>Fast-expanding global order book </h3>The global container shipping order book is sitting near 10.7 million TEUs, or 32% of the current in-service fleet, according to Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Just over 1 million TEUs of capacity via ships above 10,000 TEUs is scheduled to be delivered this year. But 2.3 million TEUs of capacity is due for delivery in 2027, with 3.4 million TEUs due to come online in 2028, equal to all the tonnage received in 2022 and 2023. While new ships steadily sail into service, the number of cellular container vessels scrapped in 2025 was the lowest in 20 years, according to Alphaliner, with only 12 ships recycled with a total capacity of just 8,172 TEUs.Maersk believes its capacity is at an optimal level to serve both its standalone services and Gemini’s needs, but the carrier’s CFO Patrick Jany remains <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/gemini-benefits-face-looming-challenge-from-oversupplied-market-maersk-ceo-6164887">concerned over the excess tonnage in container shipping</a> and believes scrapping levels simply must increase. “We have all the tools across the industry to get this back in whack,” Jany said on last week’s earnings call, noting that for the past six years carriers have been in an abnormal supply-and-demand cycle. “The question is how long for the industry to get back to what was normal,” he added. “If it takes long for the discipline to come, then you will see rates at a difficult level for a while. If there is good discipline and people do what needs to be done, then this could resorlve itself quite fast.” Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Maersk has opted for greater flexibility around vessel deployment in a new order for eight 18,600-TEU dual-fuel ships that are part of its ongoing fleet renewal program, the carrier announced Monday. The new vessels — to be delivered in 2029 and 2030 — are shorter and narrower than most 400-meter megaships that are mostly confined to the Asia-Europe trade, giving Maersk more deployment options across its global network. “Deployment flexibility has been a key factor in our decision-making,” Anda Cristescu, head of chartering and newbuilding at Maersk, said in a statement. “Although these vessels are large, they offer greater flexibility than the largest ships currently being built in our industry. This provides us with multiple deployment options across both our current and future network.” The eight-vessel order was signed with China’s New Times Shipbuilding Co. The ships will be equipped with dual-fuel engines able to operate on conventional bunker fuel or liquified natural gas (LNG). Financial terms of the order were not disclosed. Maersk now has 33 ships on order, four of which are scheduled to be delivered this year. Following 4.3% growth in its fleet in 2025, Maersk’s total in-service capacity reached 4.6 million TEUs. The increase in capacity was attributed to an early 2025 injection to support strong demand when the Gemini Cooperation with Hapag-Lloyd was launched a year ago, with utilization of 94% in the third quarter continuing through the fourth quarter. “We seek to protect the high asset turns we have achieved with Gemini, which will allow us to carry more containers with our existing fleet so we can grow with minimal fleet expansion,” Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said during an earnings call with analysts last week. Maersk’s volume in 2025 increased 4.9% to just shy of 13 million FEUs. Fast-expanding global order book The global container shipping order book is sitting near 10.7 million TEUs, or 32% of the current in-service fleet, according to Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Just over 1 million TEUs of capacity via ships above 10,000 TEUs is scheduled to be delivered this year. But 2.3 million TEUs of capacity is due for delivery in 2027, with 3.4 million TEUs due to come online in 2028, equal to all the tonnage received in 2022 and 2023. While new ships steadily sail into service, the number of cellular container vessels scrapped in 2025 was the lowest in 20 years, according to Alphaliner, with only 12 ships recycled with a total capacity of just 8,172 TEUs. Maersk believes its capacity is at an optimal level to serve both its standalone services and Gemini’s needs, but the carrier’s CFO Patrick Jany remains concerned over the excess tonnage in container shipping and believes scrapping levels simply must increase. “We have all the tools across the industry to get this back in whack,” Jany said on last week’s earnings call, noting that for the past six years carriers have been in an abnormal supply-and-demand cycle. “The question is how long for the industry to get back to what was normal,” he added. “If it takes long for the discipline to come, then you will see rates at a difficult level for a while. If there is good discipline and people do what needs to be done, then this could resorlve itself quite fast.” Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Asia-Europe

Maersk widens deployment options with order for ‘flexible’ new ships

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The likely sale this year of the Port of New York and New Jersey’s largest marine terminal portends possible changes to how it will be operated in the long run. </div>

The likely sale this year of the Port of New York and New Jersey’s largest marine terminal portends possible changes to how it will be operated in the long run.

<div class="phx-topic">The potential sale of Maher Terminal at the Port of New York and New Jersey will require a buyer to navigate stricter lease terms, billions in new costs, and decisions on how to grow capacity and service its customers, all portending further changes in container handling at the port. A source told the Journal of Commerce that marine terminal operators including DP World, PSA International, SSA Marine, and Terminal Investment Limited have inquired about a potential acquisition of Maher from private equity firm Macquarie Infrastructure Partners. Maher, the largest container terminal at NY-NJ, could fetch $3 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal. The sale of Maher, which could be announced later this year, comes after the Macquarie fund that owns Maher negotiated <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/macquarie-seals-deal-for-new-maher-lease-at-nynj-through-2063-6137751">a new 33-year lease with the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey that starts in 2030</a>. The potential buyers have also contacted the Port Authority, the source said, because the agency would have to sign off on any deal. The new lease means Maher’s buyer faces a variable monthly rent that is based solely on container volume, the source said, rather than the previous lease’s largely fixed-cost base rent. In addition, the new operator will have to share with the Port Authority a greater portion of its “excess revenue,” which generally comes from the demurrage it charges on containers. Outside of the direct rental costs, Maher’s buyer could face at least $3 billion in capital and maintenance costs under the new lease, the source said. <h3>Capacity upgrades</h3>A big chunk of that will be the cost of berth maintenance and repairs that the Port Authority has begun shifting over to tenants under the new leases. Maher, with four berths capable of handling super-post-Panamax ships, faces an estimated $2 billion in such repairs.The new lease also requires Maher to add “demand-induced” capacity as part of the port’s overall plan to double capacity by 2050, Port Director Beth Rooney said after the lease’s December signing. Maher, which can currently handle just over 3 million TEUs, could double its capacity through densification, she said. Densification, though, will require the buyer to rethink signature features of the terminal that have made it preferred among ocean carriers, shippers and motor carriers. The densification process could cost another $1 billion. Maher currently uses a fleet of over 200 straddle carriers to sort containers and bring them to trucks waiting at a parking spot, what the facility bills as a “concierge service,” according to shippers. Maher has won multiple awards from local motor carriers and ocean carriers for its service levels. Densifying the facility would mean gradually rolling out a smaller fleet of gantry cranes, either on rubber tires or rail mounted, for handling higher and wider container stacks. The process would require that yard space within Maher be closed on a rotating basis while the underlying concrete is reinforced and container stacks are remade for the larger machines. It’s not clear how the switch to gantry crane operations will affect service times for trucks, although it would likely mean fewer loading spaces. An equipment change at the terminal will also trigger a clause in the contract with the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) over implementing new technology, requiring negotiations with the union. Along with larger yard equipment, a new buyer for Maher will face decisions on how it optimizes space. Maher has a massive truck gate with some 30 inbound lanes and 20 outbound lanes. The large gate complex allows Maher to handle trucks without requiring appointments, a free-flow operation that allows truckers to quickly enter the facility. But the gate complex also occupies about a quarter of its land, making it a potential target for reclamation to container yard space. A smaller gate, though, might require Maher to rethink the free-flow model Maher will also have to share more of its daily operational data under the new lease terms, which require the terminal to provide data about key metrics and other measures. The data sharing will “enable the Port Authority and its terminal operators to better collaborate on port efficiency initiatives,” the agency said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce.Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto: michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The potential sale of Maher Terminal at the Port of New York and New Jersey will require a buyer to navigate stricter lease terms, billions in new costs, and decisions on how to grow capacity and service its customers, all portending further changes in container handling at the port. A source told the Journal of Commerce that marine terminal operators including DP World, PSA International, SSA Marine, and Terminal Investment Limited have inquired about a potential acquisition of Maher from private equity firm Macquarie Infrastructure Partners. Maher, the largest container terminal at NY-NJ, could fetch $3 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal. The sale of Maher, which could be announced later this year, comes after the Macquarie fund that owns Maher negotiated a new 33-year lease with the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey that starts in 2030 . The potential buyers have also contacted the Port Authority, the source said, because the agency would have to sign off on any deal. The new lease means Maher’s buyer faces a variable monthly rent that is based solely on container volume, the source said, rather than the previous lease’s largely fixed-cost base rent. In addition, the new operator will have to share with the Port Authority a greater portion of its “excess revenue,” which generally comes from the demurrage it charges on containers. Outside of the direct rental costs, Maher’s buyer could face at least $3 billion in capital and maintenance costs under the new lease, the source said. Capacity upgrades A big chunk of that will be the cost of berth maintenance and repairs that the Port Authority has begun shifting over to tenants under the new leases. Maher, with four berths capable of handling super-post-Panamax ships, faces an estimated $2 billion in such repairs. The new lease also requires Maher to add “demand-induced” capacity as part of the port’s overall plan to double capacity by 2050, Port Director Beth Rooney said after the lease’s December signing. Maher, which can currently handle just over 3 million TEUs, could double its capacity through densification, she said. Densification, though, will require the buyer to rethink signature features of the terminal that have made it preferred among ocean carriers, shippers and motor carriers. The densification process could cost another $1 billion. Maher currently uses a fleet of over 200 straddle carriers to sort containers and bring them to trucks waiting at a parking spot, what the facility bills as a “concierge service,” according to shippers. Maher has won multiple awards from local motor carriers and ocean carriers for its service levels. Densifying the facility would mean gradually rolling out a smaller fleet of gantry cranes, either on rubber tires or rail mounted, for handling higher and wider container stacks. The process would require that yard space within Maher be closed on a rotating basis while the underlying concrete is reinforced and container stacks are remade for the larger machines. It’s not clear how the switch to gantry crane operations will affect service times for trucks, although it would likely mean fewer loading spaces. An equipment change at the terminal will also trigger a clause in the contract with the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) over implementing new technology, requiring negotiations with the union. Along with larger yard equipment, a new buyer for Maher will face decisions on how it optimizes space. Maher has a massive truck gate with some 30 inbound lanes and 20 outbound lanes. The large gate complex allows Maher to handle trucks without requiring appointments, a free-flow operation that allows truckers to quickly enter the facility. But the gate complex also occupies about a quarter of its land, making it a potential target for reclamation to container yard space. A smaller gate, though, might require Maher to rethink the free-flow model Maher will also have to share more of its daily operational data under the new lease terms, which require the terminal to provide data about key metrics and other measures. The data sharing will “enable the Port Authority and its terminal operators to better collaborate on port efficiency initiatives,” the agency said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce.Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Maher’s next buyer faces billions in upgrades, decisions on capacity

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The current market situation is favorable for BCOs, and the temptation will be great to drive down base rates because of internal cost pressures, writes John McCauley.</div>

The current market situation is favorable for BCOs, and the temptation will be great to drive down base rates because of internal cost pressures, writes John McCauley.

<div class="phx-topic">At this time of year, many have reflected on 2025 and made resolutions for 2026. I have adjusted this to make no resolutions, but a few predictions that, in most cases, I hope will not materialize. In addition, I want to give some advice to beneficial cargo owners (BCOs), many of whom are in various stages of negotiations for 2026–27 service contracts. Starting with the predictions, let’s consider some supply, capacity, and demand issues. <h3>Capacity </h3>I expect Red Sea transits will resume, but very slowly and primarily for East Med cargo and for the India sub-continent to the East Coast of the US. Asia-Europe transits will only resume if insurance premiums disappear. The Houthis are still present and will be volatile and unreliable, so they remain the wild card for this prediction. At best, Asia-Europe, if Suez passage resumes, would take six months to stabilize. The US port fees for Chinese-built and -owned vessels will be a non-event. However, for carriers, the sword of Damocles is hanging over this one, so don’t expect any major service reshuffles. Sadly, service reliability levels will stay stable at a horrible 60%, notwithstanding the herculean efforts of Gemini to drag the industry up. Most carriers won’t care enough to do something about it. Expect significant trucking and drayage disruption in the US. Bankruptcies will rise as seasonality gets more unpredictable. Driver shortages will get worse. The consequences will be price volatility, both up and down, with significant backlogs adding to detention and demurrage bills. Berthing and landside restrictions will continue to hinder moving larger vessels to north-south trades as few terminals are deep-sea; they are river or bay, at best, and are often hemmed in by towns and cities and tidal-constrained. <h3>Demand </h3>Many BCOs are under high internal pressure to contribute to reductions in overall supply chain costs as margins become thinner through higher input costs (somewhat largely driven by tariffs), downstream price squeezing, and weaker demand. Container freight downward trends will be an obvious target. Keep an eye on US credit card debt and defaults, which will rise significantly by the third quarter at the latest, thus further softening demand. Macro level indicators will prey on demand. US inflation will remain stubbornly near at least 2.5% to 3% while unemployment will remain at about 4.5% as immigration net deficits offset layoffs. Job creation will stagnate. Depending on the GDP trend, expect a high likelihood of stagflation toward the end of the fourth quarter (subject to the reliability of US government data). China will continue manufacturing export expansion and increase its proportion of global trade. <h3>Recommendation </h3>What does this mean for upcoming service contract negotiations? With the expectation of vessel oversupply continuing through the year, BCOs will push to the limit to reduce base rates. They will face several dilemmas, including how to get rid of unmerited and unjustifiable surcharges and which carriers to choose from in alliances and vessel-sharing agreements. Overall, the market situation is favorable for BCOs. The temptation to drive down base rates will be great because of internal cost pressures and/or wanting to make up for some years of carrier supply strength. This should be tempered with a caveat that many BCOs have been burnt in the past for being too empathetic to carriers’ financial difficulties. If I were in the shoes of a medium-size BCO of 30,000 TEUs and above, I would select a mix that would aim for base rates around the Xeneta/NYSHEX forecast average index levels, even if offered lower rates than those levels. It is important to keep in with Mediterranean Shipping Co. even if you don’t use them today. I would use index-linked contracts today and continue to do so with a maximum of 50% to leave yourself some volume for fixed rates and some spot prices. Of that remaining volume, I would leave about 25% for spot as the downside risk is still relatively low. Finally, the market situation should allow for BCOs to get into their contracts the exclusion of any non-explainable (by the carrier) and justifiable (judged and accepted by the BCO) surcharges. John McCauley, formerly a vice president of transportation and logistics at Cargill, now consults for shippers. Contact him at <a href="mailto:john-mccauley1@outlook.com">john-mccauley1@outlook.com</a>.</div>

At this time of year, many have reflected on 2025 and made resolutions for 2026. I have adjusted this to make no resolutions, but a few predictions that, in most cases, I hope will not materialize. In addition, I want to give some advice to beneficial cargo owners (BCOs), many of whom are in various stages of negotiations for 2026–27 service contracts. Starting with the predictions, let’s consider some supply, capacity, and demand issues. Capacity I expect Red Sea transits will resume, but very slowly and primarily for East Med cargo and for the India sub-continent to the East Coast of the US. Asia-Europe transits will only resume if insurance premiums disappear. The Houthis are still present and will be volatile and unreliable, so they remain the wild card for this prediction. At best, Asia-Europe, if Suez passage resumes, would take six months to stabilize. The US port fees for Chinese-built and -owned vessels will be a non-event. However, for carriers, the sword of Damocles is hanging over this one, so don’t expect any major service reshuffles. Sadly, service reliability levels will stay stable at a horrible 60%, notwithstanding the herculean efforts of Gemini to drag the industry up. Most carriers won’t care enough to do something about it. Expect significant trucking and drayage disruption in the US. Bankruptcies will rise as seasonality gets more unpredictable. Driver shortages will get worse. The consequences will be price volatility, both up and down, with significant backlogs adding to detention and demurrage bills. Berthing and landside restrictions will continue to hinder moving larger vessels to north-south trades as few terminals are deep-sea; they are river or bay, at best, and are often hemmed in by towns and cities and tidal-constrained. Demand Many BCOs are under high internal pressure to contribute to reductions in overall supply chain costs as margins become thinner through higher input costs (somewhat largely driven by tariffs), downstream price squeezing, and weaker demand. Container freight downward trends will be an obvious target. Keep an eye on US credit card debt and defaults, which will rise significantly by the third quarter at the latest, thus further softening demand. Macro level indicators will prey on demand. US inflation will remain stubbornly near at least 2.5% to 3% while unemployment will remain at about 4.5% as immigration net deficits offset layoffs. Job creation will stagnate. Depending on the GDP trend, expect a high likelihood of stagflation toward the end of the fourth quarter (subject to the reliability of US government data). China will continue manufacturing export expansion and increase its proportion of global trade. Recommendation What does this mean for upcoming service contract negotiations? With the expectation of vessel oversupply continuing through the year, BCOs will push to the limit to reduce base rates. They will face several dilemmas, including how to get rid of unmerited and unjustifiable surcharges and which carriers to choose from in alliances and vessel-sharing agreements. Overall, the market situation is favorable for BCOs. The temptation to drive down base rates will be great because of internal cost pressures and/or wanting to make up for some years of carrier supply strength. This should be tempered with a caveat that many BCOs have been burnt in the past for being too empathetic to carriers’ financial difficulties. If I were in the shoes of a medium-size BCO of 30,000 TEUs and above, I would select a mix that would aim for base rates around the Xeneta/NYSHEX forecast average index levels, even if offered lower rates than those levels. It is important to keep in with Mediterranean Shipping Co. even if you don’t use them today. I would use index-linked contracts today and continue to do so with a maximum of 50% to leave yourself some volume for fixed rates and some spot prices. Of that remaining volume, I would leave about 25% for spot as the downside risk is still relatively low. Finally, the market situation should allow for BCOs to get into their contracts the exclusion of any non-explainable (by the carrier) and justifiable (judged and accepted by the BCO) surcharges. John McCauley, formerly a vice president of transportation and logistics at Cargill, now consults for shippers. Contact him at john-mccauley1@outlook.com .

Trans-Pacific

A few market predictions and some advice for BCOs as contract season heats up

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">There are a lot of theories explaining the current freight recession, but there is no disputing that decreased demand, cutthroat competition, and plummeting rates have occurred simultaneously with inflationary cost components, writes Ted Prince.</div>

There are a lot of theories explaining the current freight recession, but there is no disputing that decreased demand, cutthroat competition, and plummeting rates have occurred simultaneously with inflationary cost components, writes Ted Prince.

<div class="phx-topic">In 1948, Gerald Hern, sports editor of the Boston Post, composed a brief poem describing the Boston Braves’ pitching en route to the 1948 National League pennant: First we’ll use Spahn then we’ll use Sain Then an off day, followed by rain Back will come Spahn, followed by Sain And followed, we hope, by two days of rain Warren Spahn and Johnny Sain were responsible for 39 of the Braves’ 91 victories that year. However, it was common to have a one-two punch at the top of a team’s pitching rotation. Intermodal has a similar duality: international and domestic — primarily dry 40- and 53-foot containers, respectively. While intermodal has a plethora of markets and equipment, the two segments have been carrying the industry for decades to constant new heights. They are also closely correlated in that a great deal of the domestic market is import cargo that was transloaded on the West Coast for movement inland. Hern’s work comes to mind when thinking about intermodal’s performance in 2025 and its prospects for 2026. Unlike the hoped-for two days of good rain, the industry has endured four years of painful rain since the halcyon volumes of 2021, the “good old days” of the COVID-19 pandemic. There are a lot of theories explaining the current freight “recession,” but there is no disputing that decreased demand, cutthroat competition, and plummeting rates have occurred simultaneously with inflationary cost components. As a result, intermodal has frequently found itself as a surface freight alternative that is slower and more expensive than trucking. And while there were some green shoots in 2024, the industry has been hoping for a second-half recovery — that has failed to materialize — in each of the past three years. The same seems true for 2026. <h3>Supply and demand drivers </h3>As we look forward, we need to consider supply and demand drivers. “Affordability” has taken the place of prominence in our political lexicon. As the costs of food and housing rise, discretionary income for other consumer products has shriveled and reduced demand. The same goes for increasing credit card, car, and student loan debt. Regardless of mortgage rates, there are long-term limitations on housing starts. This can further reduce consumer demand because so many purchases — e.g., furniture, home, electronics, etc. — are often associated with new homes. And although seven-year car loans have become more common, I don’t believe 50-year home mortgages will have the same penetration. With demand problematic, intermodal success will probably rely on supply changes. Many contend that the demand during the early days of COVID-19 created excess capacity that the truck market is still trying to absorb. However, it is unclear whether there was really an increase in overall capacity, or just realignment as many truckers decided to go out on their own. Regardless, there were a number of carriers that acquired capacity at historically high prices and must keep operating to just make their payments. The normal culling of unprofitable capacity was precluded by this inability to exit the market, ensuring a never-ending supply of zombie truckers. This capacity is getting older and more expensive to operate. Nevertheless, there is a feeling (or hope?) that 2026 will finally see marginal carriers leave the market and rate stability restored. <h3>Enhanced regulatory oversight </h3>The environmental green benefits of intermodal are not a priority for the current administration, so economic green will be paramount. Most likely that would come from increased regulatory oversight. Enhanced enforcement on non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses is reducing driver supply. And there is still the unknown of hacked electronic logging devices allowing for illegal hours of service. What is unclear is whether these initiatives will impact truckload and drayage carriers equally, or whether one segment will suffer disproportionate opprobrium. If it is the former, intermodal will be advantaged; however, if it is the latter, maybe not. The former would be a rising tide that would raise all intermodal ships, whereas the latter could see the further ascendance of bimodal operations with integrated drayage overseen by robust safety regimens. In an attempt to increase demand, we can expect major players to assume prominent roles. Railroads and bimodals will seek to deploy equipment that has been stored for years. Ocean carriers will continue to consider their inland options. Finally, ports may become more involved as they explore inland options to attract more discretionary cargo. There are no historical comparisons for the last five years. It is unclear when the market will turn, but when it does, the recovery will follow Ernest Hemingway’s description: “Gradually, then suddenly.” We can then hope for the sun also to rise on intermodal. Ted Prince is founder and CEO of Tri-Cities Intermodal LLC. Contact him at <a href="mailto:ted@tricitiesintermodal.com">ted@tricitiesintermodal.com</a>.</div>

In 1948, Gerald Hern, sports editor of the Boston Post, composed a brief poem describing the Boston Braves’ pitching en route to the 1948 National League pennant: First we’ll use Spahn then we’ll use Sain Then an off day, followed by rain Back will come Spahn, followed by Sain And followed, we hope, by two days of rain Warren Spahn and Johnny Sain were responsible for 39 of the Braves’ 91 victories that year. However, it was common to have a one-two punch at the top of a team’s pitching rotation. Intermodal has a similar duality: international and domestic — primarily dry 40- and 53-foot containers, respectively. While intermodal has a plethora of markets and equipment, the two segments have been carrying the industry for decades to constant new heights. They are also closely correlated in that a great deal of the domestic market is import cargo that was transloaded on the West Coast for movement inland. Hern’s work comes to mind when thinking about intermodal’s performance in 2025 and its prospects for 2026. Unlike the hoped-for two days of good rain, the industry has endured four years of painful rain since the halcyon volumes of 2021, the “good old days” of the COVID-19 pandemic. There are a lot of theories explaining the current freight “recession,” but there is no disputing that decreased demand, cutthroat competition, and plummeting rates have occurred simultaneously with inflationary cost components. As a result, intermodal has frequently found itself as a surface freight alternative that is slower and more expensive than trucking. And while there were some green shoots in 2024, the industry has been hoping for a second-half recovery — that has failed to materialize — in each of the past three years. The same seems true for 2026. Supply and demand drivers As we look forward, we need to consider supply and demand drivers. “Affordability” has taken the place of prominence in our political lexicon. As the costs of food and housing rise, discretionary income for other consumer products has shriveled and reduced demand. The same goes for increasing credit card, car, and student loan debt. Regardless of mortgage rates, there are long-term limitations on housing starts. This can further reduce consumer demand because so many purchases — e.g., furniture, home, electronics, etc. — are often associated with new homes. And although seven-year car loans have become more common, I don’t believe 50-year home mortgages will have the same penetration. With demand problematic, intermodal success will probably rely on supply changes. Many contend that the demand during the early days of COVID-19 created excess capacity that the truck market is still trying to absorb. However, it is unclear whether there was really an increase in overall capacity, or just realignment as many truckers decided to go out on their own. Regardless, there were a number of carriers that acquired capacity at historically high prices and must keep operating to just make their payments. The normal culling of unprofitable capacity was precluded by this inability to exit the market, ensuring a never-ending supply of zombie truckers. This capacity is getting older and more expensive to operate. Nevertheless, there is a feeling (or hope?) that 2026 will finally see marginal carriers leave the market and rate stability restored. Enhanced regulatory oversight The environmental green benefits of intermodal are not a priority for the current administration, so economic green will be paramount. Most likely that would come from increased regulatory oversight. Enhanced enforcement on non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses is reducing driver supply. And there is still the unknown of hacked electronic logging devices allowing for illegal hours of service. What is unclear is whether these initiatives will impact truckload and drayage carriers equally, or whether one segment will suffer disproportionate opprobrium. If it is the former, intermodal will be advantaged; however, if it is the latter, maybe not. The former would be a rising tide that would raise all intermodal ships, whereas the latter could see the further ascendance of bimodal operations with integrated drayage overseen by robust safety regimens. In an attempt to increase demand, we can expect major players to assume prominent roles. Railroads and bimodals will seek to deploy equipment that has been stored for years. Ocean carriers will continue to consider their inland options. Finally, ports may become more involved as they explore inland options to attract more discretionary cargo. There are no historical comparisons for the last five years. It is unclear when the market will turn, but when it does, the recovery will follow Ernest Hemingway’s description: “Gradually, then suddenly.” We can then hope for the sun also to rise on intermodal. Ted Prince is founder and CEO of Tri-Cities Intermodal LLC. Contact him at ted@tricitiesintermodal.com .

Surface

North-American rail

Intermodal providers

Supply chain

Pace of freight market recovery a matter of ‘gradually, then suddenly’

Shanghai to Santos

{dateX.formatDate('MMM dd, yyyy')}: ${valueY} 
Y-o-Y: {percet_year_Santos.formatNumber("##.#%")}

The Shanghai Shipping Exchange’s (SSE) Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reflects spot rates and associated seaborne charges for containerized exports from Shanghai. The SCFI includes indices of freight rates in 13 individual shipping routes and a composite index, using Oct. 16, 2009, as the base period (Oct. 16, 2009 = 1,000). [SSE](https://en.sse.net.cn/indices/scfinew.jsp)

Shanghai to Santos container spot rates (SSE)

Shanghai to Santos Container Spot Rates (SCFI-Weekly) Gateway

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Charleston’s total rail lifts for 2025 were about one-quarter of the planned capacity of Navy Base Intermodal Facility, prompting the port’s CEO to reset capital spending plans. </div>

Charleston’s total rail lifts for 2025 were about one-quarter of the planned capacity of Navy Base Intermodal Facility, prompting the port’s CEO to reset capital spending plans.

<div class="phx-topic">The Port of Charleston has paused work on its near-dock rail yard pending agreements with Class I railroads to service the facility, the port’s chief executive said, adding that shipper demand for more intermodal capacity may not be needed until 2028. South Carolina Ports Authority (SC Ports) Chief Executive Micah Mallace told state legislators last week Charleston has “slowed construction” of the Navy Base Intermodal Facility until it has finalized operating agreements with CSX Transportation and Norfolk Southern Railway (NS). “We are working on delivering operating agreements with the railroads,” Mallace said. “We aspire to finish that quickly. Upon successful completion of that, we will restart our delivery of the facility.” The last major work on the facility involves 80,000 feet of southbound track that would link Navy Base directly to both CSX and Norfolk Southern trackage. Navy Base has northern access that connects to CSX trackage, but the southern access is a preferred route for both railroads. Under previous chief executive Barbara Melvin, the port expected to announce <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/charlestons-navy-base-rail-yard-project-faces-delays-big-cost-overruns-6070926">a construction award for the project last October</a>, but that award has been paused. Mallace, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/sc-ports-taps-former-commercial-executive-to-lead-6092988">who took over as CEO that month</a>, has been <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/new-charleston-ceo-seeks-to-regain-container-growth-momentum-6104583">reevaluating the port’s capital spending plans</a> in light of slower growth in cargo demand. “SC Ports continues to work with our partners at CSX and NS to deliver additional rail capacity and enhance intermodal competitiveness to support growth in the Southeast market,” the port said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce. Mallace appeared before the South Carolina legislators to ask that some $2 million in state funding previously appropriated to SC Ports for joint development of a container terminal with the Georgia Port Authority (GPA) on the South Carolina side of the Savannah River be redirected to a local economic development agency. The request stemmed from the GPA’s “wish to deliver capacity on the Georgia side of the river,” Mallace said. <h3>Navy Base start anticipated for 2028 </h3>SC Ports previously forecast a potential 2026 launch of Navy Base service with CSX and later adding NS access by 2027 once the southern access and other infrastructure was complete. While there is no specific target for Navy Base’s full completion, Mallace said “we estimate needing to bring it on in 2028.” Intermodal cargo at the port is currently trucked to the CSX and NS intermodal facilities under Charleston’s “Rapid Rail” program. Navy Base allows the port to handle containers faster via a one-mile dedicated drayage road connected to the Leatherman marine terminal. Navy Base is designed to handle 1 million container lifts per year. It connects Charleston directly to its inland ports at Dillon and Greer, which are served respectively by CSX and NS, as well as other destinations in the Southeast. Dillon handled 48,761 container lifts last year, a 33% increase from 2024 largely due to a state initiative to reroute soybean shipments to export markets after the closure of a nearby processing facility, as well as demand from Dillon’s retailer shippers, according to SC Ports. Greer, which serves some of the state’s manufacturers and other retail distributors and can handle 300,000 lifts annually, saw approximately two-thirds of that at 197,805 container lifts last year, up 2% from a year earlier. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The Port of Charleston has paused work on its near-dock rail yard pending agreements with Class I railroads to service the facility, the port’s chief executive said, adding that shipper demand for more intermodal capacity may not be needed until 2028. South Carolina Ports Authority (SC Ports) Chief Executive Micah Mallace told state legislators last week Charleston has “slowed construction” of the Navy Base Intermodal Facility until it has finalized operating agreements with CSX Transportation and Norfolk Southern Railway (NS). “We are working on delivering operating agreements with the railroads,” Mallace said. “We aspire to finish that quickly. Upon successful completion of that, we will restart our delivery of the facility.” The last major work on the facility involves 80,000 feet of southbound track that would link Navy Base directly to both CSX and Norfolk Southern trackage. Navy Base has northern access that connects to CSX trackage, but the southern access is a preferred route for both railroads. Under previous chief executive Barbara Melvin, the port expected to announce a construction award for the project last October , but that award has been paused. Mallace, who took over as CEO that month , has been reevaluating the port’s capital spending plans in light of slower growth in cargo demand. “SC Ports continues to work with our partners at CSX and NS to deliver additional rail capacity and enhance intermodal competitiveness to support growth in the Southeast market,” the port said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce. Mallace appeared before the South Carolina legislators to ask that some $2 million in state funding previously appropriated to SC Ports for joint development of a container terminal with the Georgia Port Authority (GPA) on the South Carolina side of the Savannah River be redirected to a local economic development agency. The request stemmed from the GPA’s “wish to deliver capacity on the Georgia side of the river,” Mallace said. Navy Base start anticipated for 2028 SC Ports previously forecast a potential 2026 launch of Navy Base service with CSX and later adding NS access by 2027 once the southern access and other infrastructure was complete. While there is no specific target for Navy Base’s full completion, Mallace said “we estimate needing to bring it on in 2028.” Intermodal cargo at the port is currently trucked to the CSX and NS intermodal facilities under Charleston’s “Rapid Rail” program. Navy Base allows the port to handle containers faster via a one-mile dedicated drayage road connected to the Leatherman marine terminal. Navy Base is designed to handle 1 million container lifts per year. It connects Charleston directly to its inland ports at Dillon and Greer, which are served respectively by CSX and NS, as well as other destinations in the Southeast. Dillon handled 48,761 container lifts last year, a 33% increase from 2024 largely due to a state initiative to reroute soybean shipments to export markets after the closure of a nearby processing facility, as well as demand from Dillon’s retailer shippers, according to SC Ports. Greer, which serves some of the state’s manufacturers and other retail distributors and can handle 300,000 lifts annually, saw approximately two-thirds of that at 197,805 container lifts last year, up 2% from a year earlier. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Port infrastructure

Charleston slows railyard development amid insufficient shipper demand

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Momentum from robust growth on some Asian export trade lanes following the Christmas holidays has now slowed, with forwarders and analysts expecting muted demand over the coming two weeks.</div>

Momentum from robust growth on some Asian export trade lanes following the Christmas holidays has now slowed, with forwarders and analysts expecting muted demand over the coming two weeks.

<div class="phx-topic">Air cargo analysts and forwarders are expecting a modest pre-Lunar New Year uptick in exports on Asian trade lanes following solid demand growth in January from China to Europe and from Southeast Asia and Taiwan to the US. With the Lunar New Year beginning relatively late on Feb. 17, industry forecasts are for a gradual increase in volume and rates over the next two weeks before factories close for Asia’s main annual holiday. Capacity trends on the Asia-Europe lane suggest “robust” volume growth in January from China’s inland air freight hubs of Chongqing, Chengdu and Zhengzhou, according to Rotate analyst Ray Zedov. While Asia to US capacity was down year over year from all Asia-Pacific regions, “a deeper dive into the US market shows that capacity from Vietnam continues to grow as Chinese imports to the US are impacted by the new tariff policy in the US,” Zedov told the Journal of Commerce. The US removed its “de minimis” duty exemption on low-value goods from all its trading partners on Aug. 29 last year following the scrapping of duty-free access for low-value Chinese imports in May. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="33a72818-4d4c-4365-97ce-ccb39dab8dd8"></dynamic-object></div>Sou Ping Chee, regional head of air freight in Asia-Pacific for Hellmann Worldwide Logistics, said volume out of Asia had weakened by early February even with the holidays just two weeks away, which suggests muted demand this year. “However, there is still a general expectation that demand will pick up next week ahead of Lunar New Year from China, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Taiwan across industries before these markets close for the biggest festive season in this part of the world,” he said. An Asia-based executive at a global forwarder said he was not seeing any major uptick in demand on China-Europe and the wider Asia Pacific-North America market. “It remains rather flat and even prior to the Lunar New Year we are not seeing anything exceptional,” the source said. He added that although overall demand out of Asia-Pacific to North America has flattened out, demand out of Taipei and Vietnam has remained solid. “Taipei-US, Bangkok-US and Hanoi-US are busy,” he said. “Rates are holding steady at a higher level and demand remains strong, largely driven by AI-related components. Bangkok-Europe and Vietnam-Europe are also busy.” <h3>Rates rising on Asian export trade lanes </h3>Netherlands-based air cargo analyst WorldACD said after two weeks of strong sequential volume growth from Asia-Pacific to US and Europe markets, overall week-over-week growth came to a halt last week with flat volumes for both trade lanes. When compared with the same week last year, volume to the US was down 1% and volume to Europe was up 7%. While spot rates on the trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe in the last week of January were down 9% year over year, there were significant week-over-week increases on both trades, particularly from China origins, WorldACD data shows. Spot rates to the US last week rose 6% compared with the previous week to $4.02 per kilogram, while rates to Europe were up 7% at $3.80/kg as the market edged into the pre-Lunar New Year peak and capacity tightened on some airport pairings. Sou noted that rates on the Asian export trade lanes have remained at healthy levels in the first weeks of 2026 after softening over the Christmas period. “As such we do not expect as sharp an increase now, but rather spot rates are likely to creep up as we enter the last 10 days to Lunar New Year and pick up momentum from next week onwards,” he said. Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), said the moderate demand will extend to the full year, with global air freight demand in 2026 expected to grow 2.4% from 2025, although that would be down from last year’s 3.4% growth over 2024. “We can expect that demand will continue to be shaped by trade and geopolitical developments,” Walsh noted in a January market update, adding that carriers will continue to relocate capacity to support shifting trade patterns. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>.   </div>

Air cargo analysts and forwarders are expecting a modest pre-Lunar New Year uptick in exports on Asian trade lanes following solid demand growth in January from China to Europe and from Southeast Asia and Taiwan to the US. With the Lunar New Year beginning relatively late on Feb. 17, industry forecasts are for a gradual increase in volume and rates over the next two weeks before factories close for Asia’s main annual holiday. Capacity trends on the Asia-Europe lane suggest “robust” volume growth in January from China’s inland air freight hubs of Chongqing, Chengdu and Zhengzhou, according to Rotate analyst Ray Zedov. While Asia to US capacity was down year over year from all Asia-Pacific regions, “a deeper dive into the US market shows that capacity from Vietnam continues to grow as Chinese imports to the US are impacted by the new tariff policy in the US,” Zedov told the Journal of Commerce. The US removed its “de minimis” duty exemption on low-value goods from all its trading partners on Aug. 29 last year following the scrapping of duty-free access for low-value Chinese imports in May. Sou Ping Chee, regional head of air freight in Asia-Pacific for Hellmann Worldwide Logistics, said volume out of Asia had weakened by early February even with the holidays just two weeks away, which suggests muted demand this year. “However, there is still a general expectation that demand will pick up next week ahead of Lunar New Year from China, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Taiwan across industries before these markets close for the biggest festive season in this part of the world,” he said. An Asia-based executive at a global forwarder said he was not seeing any major uptick in demand on China-Europe and the wider Asia Pacific-North America market. “It remains rather flat and even prior to the Lunar New Year we are not seeing anything exceptional,” the source said. He added that although overall demand out of Asia-Pacific to North America has flattened out, demand out of Taipei and Vietnam has remained solid. “Taipei-US, Bangkok-US and Hanoi-US are busy,” he said. “Rates are holding steady at a higher level and demand remains strong, largely driven by AI-related components. Bangkok-Europe and Vietnam-Europe are also busy.” Rates rising on Asian export trade lanes Netherlands-based air cargo analyst WorldACD said after two weeks of strong sequential volume growth from Asia-Pacific to US and Europe markets, overall week-over-week growth came to a halt last week with flat volumes for both trade lanes. When compared with the same week last year, volume to the US was down 1% and volume to Europe was up 7%. While spot rates on the trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe in the last week of January were down 9% year over year, there were significant week-over-week increases on both trades, particularly from China origins, WorldACD data shows. Spot rates to the US last week rose 6% compared with the previous week to $4.02 per kilogram, while rates to Europe were up 7% at $3.80/kg as the market edged into the pre-Lunar New Year peak and capacity tightened on some airport pairings. Sou noted that rates on the Asian export trade lanes have remained at healthy levels in the first weeks of 2026 after softening over the Christmas period. “As such we do not expect as sharp an increase now, but rather spot rates are likely to creep up as we enter the last 10 days to Lunar New Year and pick up momentum from next week onwards,” he said. Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), said the moderate demand will extend to the full year, with global air freight demand in 2026 expected to grow 2.4% from 2025, although that would be down from last year’s 3.4% growth over 2024. “We can expect that demand will continue to be shaped by trade and geopolitical developments,” Walsh noted in a January market update, adding that carriers will continue to relocate capacity to support shifting trade patterns. Contact Greg Knowler at  greg.knowler@spglobal.com .   

Air Cargo Forwarder News

Air Cargo

Solid January demand to largely mute Lunar New Year air freight rush

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The India/Middle East-Mediterranean service will be the first Gemini loop in two years to transit the Red Sea, with plans for other services to follow “where possible,” the alliance partners say.</div>

The India/Middle East-Mediterranean service will be the first Gemini loop in two years to transit the Red Sea, with plans for other services to follow “where possible,” the alliance partners say.

<div class="phx-topic">Gemini Cooperation partners Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd said Tuesday that the first vessels in their ME11/IMX service will be routed through the Suez Canal in mid-February, with plans by the carriers to send two other services through the waterway. The Journal of Commerce reported on Jan. 15 that the ME11/IMX service <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/gemini-india-med-service-the-next-to-plan-return-to-red-seasuez-passage-6152941">would resume the Suez route “shortly,”</a> citing a Maersk executive. It would be the first time in more than two years that a Gemini service has transited the Red Sea. “The service in scope is the ME11 service, which connects India and the Middle East with the Mediterranean,” Maersk said in a statement. “From mid-February, changes will be implemented on westbound sailings as of the vessel Albert Maersk and on eastbound sailings as of the vessel Astrid Maersk.” On the initial westbound sailing, the Albert Maersk will depart Mundra in India on Feb. 4 after arriving from Jebel Ali in the United Arab Emirates; on the eastbound sailing, the Astrid Maersk will depart Valencia in Spain on Feb. 3. A naval escort will ride shotgun during the Red Sea passages to guard against attacks by Yemen’s Houthi militants, the Gemini statement noted. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd also said that “where possible,” they will redirect Gemini’s AE12 Asia-Mediterranean and AE15 Asia-Turkey services through the Red Sea and Suez “at a later stage.” The carriers said further information for customers will follow, but no further changes to the Gemini network related to the Red Sea were foreseen at this stage. “We see this announcement as another important milestone for the industry,” J.P. Morgan said Tuesday in a note to customers. “It demonstrates the willingness of container shipping lines to improve flows and increase sailings via the Suez Canal.” But the investment bank said the market has yet to price in a sustained return to the Suez, which will add up to 7% of effective capacity to the global fleet. Earlier this year, Maersk made its first structural move back into the Red Sea by <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/maersk-set-to-resume-regular-suez-transits-on-india-usec-mecl-loop-sources-6152441">rerouting its standalone MECL service</a>, which links the Middle East and India with the US East Coast via the Suez Canal. <h3>Regional unease over volatile US-Iran relations </h3>The regional situation remains tense, with a US carrier strike group now stationed in the Gulf of Oman to back up threats by President Donald Trump to launch military strikes on Iran. Tehran has vowed to respond to any attacks, which may spill over into the southern Red Sea controlled by Iran-backed Houthi militants. Gemini said switching the services from around the Cape of Good Hope to Suez would be carried out in a way that keeps disruption for customers to a minimum. But in a nod to the volatile regional security situation, the Gemini statement added: “Contingency plans are in place should the security situation deteriorate, which may necessitate reverting individual sailings or the wider structural change of the ME11 service back to the Cape of Good Hope route.” Carriers have been forced to divert vessels around southern Africa since late 2023, when the Houthis began their attacks against commercial shipping to protest Israel’s move into Gaza. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd also warned shippers to review their bookings on the ME11 service and ensure they had sufficient insurance cover for their cargo being transported through the area. <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/shippers-shoulder-burden-of-red-sea-uncertainty-as-regional-tensions-rise-again-6160632">Cargo insurance is a significant hurdle for shippers</a> with freight transiting the Red Sea. Some shippers say their insurance brokers have refused to provide cover, while others say the high cost of premiums was prohibitive. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>.     </div>

Gemini Cooperation partners Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd said Tuesday that the first vessels in their ME11/IMX service will be routed through the Suez Canal in mid-February, with plans by the carriers to send two other services through the waterway. The Journal of Commerce reported on Jan. 15 that the ME11/IMX service would resume the Suez route “shortly,” citing a Maersk executive. It would be the first time in more than two years that a Gemini service has transited the Red Sea. “The service in scope is the ME11 service, which connects India and the Middle East with the Mediterranean,” Maersk said in a statement. “From mid-February, changes will be implemented on westbound sailings as of the vessel Albert Maersk and on eastbound sailings as of the vessel Astrid Maersk.” On the initial westbound sailing, the Albert Maersk will depart Mundra in India on Feb. 4 after arriving from Jebel Ali in the United Arab Emirates; on the eastbound sailing, the Astrid Maersk will depart Valencia in Spain on Feb. 3. A naval escort will ride shotgun during the Red Sea passages to guard against attacks by Yemen’s Houthi militants, the Gemini statement noted. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd also said that “where possible,” they will redirect Gemini’s AE12 Asia-Mediterranean and AE15 Asia-Turkey services through the Red Sea and Suez “at a later stage.” The carriers said further information for customers will follow, but no further changes to the Gemini network related to the Red Sea were foreseen at this stage. “We see this announcement as another important milestone for the industry,” J.P. Morgan said Tuesday in a note to customers. “It demonstrates the willingness of container shipping lines to improve flows and increase sailings via the Suez Canal.” But the investment bank said the market has yet to price in a sustained return to the Suez, which will add up to 7% of effective capacity to the global fleet. Earlier this year, Maersk made its first structural move back into the Red Sea by rerouting its standalone MECL service , which links the Middle East and India with the US East Coast via the Suez Canal. Regional unease over volatile US-Iran relations The regional situation remains tense, with a US carrier strike group now stationed in the Gulf of Oman to back up threats by President Donald Trump to launch military strikes on Iran. Tehran has vowed to respond to any attacks, which may spill over into the southern Red Sea controlled by Iran-backed Houthi militants. Gemini said switching the services from around the Cape of Good Hope to Suez would be carried out in a way that keeps disruption for customers to a minimum. But in a nod to the volatile regional security situation, the Gemini statement added: “Contingency plans are in place should the security situation deteriorate, which may necessitate reverting individual sailings or the wider structural change of the ME11 service back to the Cape of Good Hope route.” Carriers have been forced to divert vessels around southern Africa since late 2023, when the Houthis began their attacks against commercial shipping to protest Israel’s move into Gaza. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd also warned shippers to review their bookings on the ME11 service and ensure they had sufficient insurance cover for their cargo being transported through the area. Cargo insurance is a significant hurdle for shippers with freight transiting the Red Sea. Some shippers say their insurance brokers have refused to provide cover, while others say the high cost of premiums was prohibitive. Contact Greg Knowler at  greg.knowler@spglobal.com .    

Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd confirm they’ll route Gemini service through Suez

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<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Sources say sustained weak market fundamentals have caused this year to be atypical in terms of demand in the immediate run-up to Lunar New Year, which begins Feb. 17.</div>

Sources say sustained weak market fundamentals have caused this year to be atypical in terms of demand in the immediate run-up to Lunar New Year, which begins Feb. 17.

<div class="phx-topic">Softer spot rates, weak volume forecasts and poor consumer sentiment spell one thing in the tariff-weary trans-Pacific container market: The traditional pre-Lunar New Year rush of cargo is not happening in 2026. Sources say sustained weak market fundamentals have caused this year to be atypical in terms of demand in the immediate run-up to Lunar New Year, which begins Feb. 17. Factories in China will close for at least a week for the holiday, which normally causes a freight surge of some magnitude before the doors shut. But not this year. “I would say demand is muted. There’s still uncertainty among retailers about tariffs,” an ocean carrier executive told the Journal of Commerce. “There has already been frontloading of spring merchandise.” To the extent there was any so-called rush at all, even in January, it is “clearly behind us,” said Peter Sand, chief analyst for the rate benchmarking platform Xeneta. “[This year] is another year where supply growth exceeds demand growth,” Sand said. Downward movement in spot rates before the Lunar New Year factory closures is largely the result of the weak demand from retailers and other importers. North Asia to US West Coast spot rates that started January at $2,075 per FEU were at $1,900 as of Tuesday, according to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Drewry had Shanghai-to-Los Angeles rates at $3,132 per FEU on Jan. 8, but those had fallen to $2,442 by month’s end. Shanghai-West Coast rates of $1,867 per FEU from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange as of Jan. 30 were down from $2,188 at the start of the month. According to all the indexes, current spot rates are about 50% lower than they were a year ago. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="7f641553-97ec-4014-8e54-fef6408538d9"></dynamic-object></div>A forwarder who spoke with the Journal of Commerce noted that the lower listed spot rates this week are only part of the story. Carriers are continuing to offer discount rates, known as bullet or voyage-specific rates, that are as much as several hundred dollars lower than the posted spot/freight-all-kinds (FAK) rates. For example, some lines are offering bullet rates of $1,750 per FEU to the West Coast and $2,500 per FEU to the East Coast, and they are readily available to shippers. “It’s the bullet rates that are moving cargo,” the source said. That pricing structure would seem to indicate that retailers and other importers will have leverage entering annual service contract negotiations that are already underway and will pick up in intensity in early March following the Journal of Commerce’s TPM26 conference in Long Beach. <h3>Blank sailings accelerating </h3>Meanwhile, blank sailings, another demand barometer, are accelerating in February. Data from eeSea shows that carriers intend thus far to blank 206,835 TEUs of capacity this month on the Asia-to-West Coast trade, up from 107,318 TEUs in January. From Asia to the East and Gulf coasts, the blanks so far in February are at 96,881 TEUs, according to eeSea, up from 77,339 TEUs in January. “Carriers are blanking extensively in the weeks commencing Feb. 23 and March 2 in classic response to the lower exports out of China as a result of the CNY festive days,” Xeneta’s Sand said. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="e5c8a2a0-9aa5-4787-bbed-bf4b7a9f9677"></dynamic-object></div>US retailers have already forecast weaker cargo volumes over the next three months. Global Port Tracker, published monthly by the National Retail Federation (NRF), forecasts that US imports in February will be down 4.6% from the same month a year earlier, with March imports down 12.6% and April down 8.1% from the year-earlier months. US import volumes are also impacted by the confidence of consumers to spend. According to the Conference Board, a think tank, the consumer confidence index fell to 84.5 in January, well below market expectations and the lowest reading since May 2014. “Confidence collapsed in January as consumer concerns about both the present situation and expectations for the future deepened,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>.Contact Mark Szakonyi at <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com">mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Softer spot rates, weak volume forecasts and poor consumer sentiment spell one thing in the tariff-weary trans-Pacific container market: The traditional pre-Lunar New Year rush of cargo is not happening in 2026. Sources say sustained weak market fundamentals have caused this year to be atypical in terms of demand in the immediate run-up to Lunar New Year, which begins Feb. 17. Factories in China will close for at least a week for the holiday, which normally causes a freight surge of some magnitude before the doors shut. But not this year. “I would say demand is muted. There’s still uncertainty among retailers about tariffs,” an ocean carrier executive told the Journal of Commerce. “There has already been frontloading of spring merchandise.” To the extent there was any so-called rush at all, even in January, it is “clearly behind us,” said Peter Sand, chief analyst for the rate benchmarking platform Xeneta. “[This year] is another year where supply growth exceeds demand growth,” Sand said. Downward movement in spot rates before the Lunar New Year factory closures is largely the result of the weak demand from retailers and other importers. North Asia to US West Coast spot rates that started January at $2,075 per FEU were at $1,900 as of Tuesday, according to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Drewry had Shanghai-to-Los Angeles rates at $3,132 per FEU on Jan. 8, but those had fallen to $2,442 by month’s end. Shanghai-West Coast rates of $1,867 per FEU from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange as of Jan. 30 were down from $2,188 at the start of the month. According to all the indexes, current spot rates are about 50% lower than they were a year ago. A forwarder who spoke with the Journal of Commerce noted that the lower listed spot rates this week are only part of the story. Carriers are continuing to offer discount rates, known as bullet or voyage-specific rates, that are as much as several hundred dollars lower than the posted spot/freight-all-kinds (FAK) rates. For example, some lines are offering bullet rates of $1,750 per FEU to the West Coast and $2,500 per FEU to the East Coast, and they are readily available to shippers. “It’s the bullet rates that are moving cargo,” the source said. That pricing structure would seem to indicate that retailers and other importers will have leverage entering annual service contract negotiations that are already underway and will pick up in intensity in early March following the Journal of Commerce’s TPM26 conference in Long Beach. Blank sailings accelerating Meanwhile, blank sailings, another demand barometer, are accelerating in February. Data from eeSea shows that carriers intend thus far to blank 206,835 TEUs of capacity this month on the Asia-to-West Coast trade, up from 107,318 TEUs in January. From Asia to the East and Gulf coasts, the blanks so far in February are at 96,881 TEUs, according to eeSea, up from 77,339 TEUs in January. “Carriers are blanking extensively in the weeks commencing Feb. 23 and March 2 in classic response to the lower exports out of China as a result of the CNY festive days,” Xeneta’s Sand said. US retailers have already forecast weaker cargo volumes over the next three months. Global Port Tracker, published monthly by the National Retail Federation (NRF), forecasts that US imports in February will be down 4.6% from the same month a year earlier, with March imports down 12.6% and April down 8.1% from the year-earlier months. US import volumes are also impacted by the confidence of consumers to spend. According to the Conference Board, a think tank, the consumer confidence index fell to 84.5 in January, well below market expectations and the lowest reading since May 2014. “Confidence collapsed in January as consumer concerns about both the present situation and expectations for the future deepened,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .Contact Mark Szakonyi at  mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com .

Forwarding

Tariffs claim another victim on the trans-Pacific: the pre-LNY cargo surge

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Marine terminals are using the new longshore contract to tackle one of the port’s recurring problems, with the union’s support, as they look to boost efficiency at the biggest port along the US East Coast. </div>

Marine terminals are using the new longshore contract to tackle one of the port’s recurring problems, with the union’s support, as they look to boost efficiency at the biggest port along the US East Coast.

<div class="phx-topic">Marine terminals at the Port of New York and New Jersey have made the first — albeit very small — cuts of chronically absent employees under terms outlined in the new local longshore contract, one of the main concessions employers won under the deal to boost productivity at the port. John Nardi, president of the Shipping Association of New York and New Jersey, which represents maritime employers at the port, said this week five local longshore workers were fired in January under the new unexcused absentee policy his group negotiated in the local contract with the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA). The cuts are miniscule in relation to the port’s 4,400 ILA workers. But Nardi said the new policy’s message has had an impact by cutting absenteeism at the port in half since the new contract, something that employers have “fought for years to improve.” “We worked very closely with the ILA to fix some longstanding challenges,” Nardi said. “We had the full support of the ILA at the highest level. We’re not fooling around on this.” The ILA did not respond to a request for comment from the Journal of Commerce. The local contract was officially ratified last year as part of the master contract between the ILA and the United States Maritime Alliance, with the union securing a 62% increase in its top wage tier through 2030. The first year of that wage increase, along with a higher entry-level wage and manning changes, have resulted in a nearly 20% increase in labor costs for marine terminals since March 2025, according to a source familiar with the deal’s economics. <h3>Monday popular for absenteeism </h3>The master contract required all East and Gulf coast ports to draw up absentee policies. But absenteeism is a particular problem for the NY-NJ port relative to other East Coast ports, where longshore workers use hiring halls or telephonic dispatch to take any daily jobs listed as available at any of a port’s various facilities. NY-NJ maritime employers rely on specific longshore workers due to the different layout and equipment at each of its six container terminals. Marine terminals put out orders the day prior for how many longshore workers they need. ILA members at those terminals can then accept the day’s work, or it gets offered to someone else. Absenteeism can be particularly acute on Mondays. An ILA member may have worked at a time-and-half wage rate on the weekend but not show up for a shift at a regular time wage rate on Monday, despite having committed to that day’s work. “You can take a couple of days off for unanticipated reasons, but if you leave yourself in the system and accept a job, you need to take that job,” Nardi said. “You can’t just not show up without repercussions.” Under the new policy, longshore workers are allowed three days of unexcused absences each month. But unexcused absences following a weekend or a holiday count as one-and-half of those days, as do consecutive days of unexcused absences. The disciplinary escalation to firing is shortened under the new contract from seven unexcused absences to four. While longshore workers had a pass until the second unexcused absence for a warning letter, the first unexcused absence now results in a warning letter. Under the old contract, longshore workers were relegated to lower-paying, dispatched jobs at the cruise and roll-on/roll-off terminals for several periods of time before a possible termination. But the new contract only offers one relegation period, followed by a two-week suspension and then firing. The new contract also has a stricter policy around longshore employees who unexpectedly leave work during their shift. <h3>Container move clause </h3>The new, local NY-NJ contract also has requirements that each longshore gang improve productivity by one container move each year, otherwise they lose seniority to another more productive gang. The number of longshore workers hired as standby relief went up under the new contract from three workers for every two jobs to two workers for every one job. However, Nardi said the additional relief has to be cost-neutral for employers and is contingent on productivity goals. Close to a year under the new contract, Nardi said the new absenteeism policy, along with the productivity measures, have resulted in a 7% increase in productivity at the port’s biggest terminals. He added that improved labor productivity aligns with the ILA’s goal of halting port automation. During contract negotiations, ILA President Harold Daggett also <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ila-usmx-remain-at-odds-over-dockworker-wage-increases-daggett-5215515">appealed to the union’s rank-and-file</a> to improve their productivity due to the potential for job loss from automation. “If [the ILA is] focused on stemming the tide of automation, then people need to show up,” Nardi said. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Marine terminals at the Port of New York and New Jersey have made the first — albeit very small — cuts of chronically absent employees under terms outlined in the new local longshore contract, one of the main concessions employers won under the deal to boost productivity at the port. John Nardi, president of the Shipping Association of New York and New Jersey, which represents maritime employers at the port, said this week five local longshore workers were fired in January under the new unexcused absentee policy his group negotiated in the local contract with the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA). The cuts are miniscule in relation to the port’s 4,400 ILA workers. But Nardi said the new policy’s message has had an impact by cutting absenteeism at the port in half since the new contract, something that employers have “fought for years to improve.” “We worked very closely with the ILA to fix some longstanding challenges,” Nardi said. “We had the full support of the ILA at the highest level. We’re not fooling around on this.” The ILA did not respond to a request for comment from the Journal of Commerce. The local contract was officially ratified last year as part of the master contract between the ILA and the United States Maritime Alliance, with the union securing a 62% increase in its top wage tier through 2030. The first year of that wage increase, along with a higher entry-level wage and manning changes, have resulted in a nearly 20% increase in labor costs for marine terminals since March 2025, according to a source familiar with the deal’s economics. Monday popular for absenteeism The master contract required all East and Gulf coast ports to draw up absentee policies. But absenteeism is a particular problem for the NY-NJ port relative to other East Coast ports, where longshore workers use hiring halls or telephonic dispatch to take any daily jobs listed as available at any of a port’s various facilities. NY-NJ maritime employers rely on specific longshore workers due to the different layout and equipment at each of its six container terminals. Marine terminals put out orders the day prior for how many longshore workers they need. ILA members at those terminals can then accept the day’s work, or it gets offered to someone else. Absenteeism can be particularly acute on Mondays. An ILA member may have worked at a time-and-half wage rate on the weekend but not show up for a shift at a regular time wage rate on Monday, despite having committed to that day’s work. “You can take a couple of days off for unanticipated reasons, but if you leave yourself in the system and accept a job, you need to take that job,” Nardi said. “You can’t just not show up without repercussions.” Under the new policy, longshore workers are allowed three days of unexcused absences each month. But unexcused absences following a weekend or a holiday count as one-and-half of those days, as do consecutive days of unexcused absences. The disciplinary escalation to firing is shortened under the new contract from seven unexcused absences to four. While longshore workers had a pass until the second unexcused absence for a warning letter, the first unexcused absence now results in a warning letter. Under the old contract, longshore workers were relegated to lower-paying, dispatched jobs at the cruise and roll-on/roll-off terminals for several periods of time before a possible termination. But the new contract only offers one relegation period, followed by a two-week suspension and then firing. The new contract also has a stricter policy around longshore employees who unexpectedly leave work during their shift. Container move clause The new, local NY-NJ contract also has requirements that each longshore gang improve productivity by one container move each year, otherwise they lose seniority to another more productive gang. The number of longshore workers hired as standby relief went up under the new contract from three workers for every two jobs to two workers for every one job. However, Nardi said the additional relief has to be cost-neutral for employers and is contingent on productivity goals. Close to a year under the new contract, Nardi said the new absenteeism policy, along with the productivity measures, have resulted in a 7% increase in productivity at the port’s biggest terminals. He added that improved labor productivity aligns with the ILA’s goal of halting port automation. During contract negotiations, ILA President Harold Daggett also appealed to the union’s rank-and-file to improve their productivity due to the potential for job loss from automation. “If [the ILA is] focused on stemming the tide of automation, then people need to show up,” Nardi said. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

NY-NJ port’s stricter absentee policy results in first longshore cuts 

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Both sides had been engaged in protracted negotiations to break the trade deadlock that had cut India’s imports to the US East Coast by more than 30% over the past six months.</div>

Both sides had been engaged in protracted negotiations to break the trade deadlock that had cut India’s imports to the US East Coast by more than 30% over the past six months.

<div class="phx-topic">The US and India on Monday said they reached a trade agreement after a months-long dispute, prompting Washington to cut tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from the 50% that went into effect last August. In a key concession, India said it would stop its purchases of Russian oil. “When two large economies and the world’s largest democracies work together, it benefits our people and unlocks immense opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation,” Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a statement. Both sides had been engaged in protracted negotiations to break the trade deadlock that had cut India’s imports to the US East Coast (USEC) by more than 30%. Further details, including the timeline for when the lower tariffs go into effect, were not immediately available. But the US said it would lower a “reciprocal” tariff on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, while also eliminating a separate 25% punitive tariff linked to India’s purchases of Russian oil. The lower tariffs make several Indian-made products, particularly textiles and apparel, more competitive than rival Asian sourcing markets, which augurs well for a potential trade boost between India and the US. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="ae1df54b-4003-46b5-a8c3-e0d35707e941"></dynamic-object></div>“This is big news for the India-US trade,” an executive at a European ocean carrier told the Journal of Commerce. “We are hoping to see a rebound in capacity demand.” Westbound volumes on the trade lane have been under tremendous pressure since the tariff uncertainty, forcing carriers to push ocean rates down to recent lows. Carriers have also been strategically adjusting capacity through blank calls to keep supply-demand dynamics as balanced as possible. Imports from India to the USEC have fallen 32% since the trade dispute broke out, from 93,160 TEUs in August to 63,590 TEUs in December, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="893ffa5c-0a69-45c7-a555-425e44318711"></dynamic-object></div>And spot rates from India to the USEC that were $2,640 per FEU on Aug. 1 have steadily fallen since to $1,212.50 as of Jan. 30, down 54%, according to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Major carriers have been unable to hold on to their intended rate hikes over the past few months with little demand support emerging. Contact Bency Mathew at <a href="mailto:bencyvmathew@gmail.com">bencyvmathew@gmail.com</a>.</div>

The US and India on Monday said they reached a trade agreement after a months-long dispute, prompting Washington to cut tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from the 50% that went into effect last August. In a key concession, India said it would stop its purchases of Russian oil. “When two large economies and the world’s largest democracies work together, it benefits our people and unlocks immense opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation,” Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a statement. Both sides had been engaged in protracted negotiations to break the trade deadlock that had cut India’s imports to the US East Coast (USEC) by more than 30%. Further details, including the timeline for when the lower tariffs go into effect, were not immediately available. But the US said it would lower a “reciprocal” tariff on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, while also eliminating a separate 25% punitive tariff linked to India’s purchases of Russian oil. The lower tariffs make several Indian-made products, particularly textiles and apparel, more competitive than rival Asian sourcing markets, which augurs well for a potential trade boost between India and the US. “This is big news for the India-US trade,” an executive at a European ocean carrier told the Journal of Commerce. “We are hoping to see a rebound in capacity demand.” Westbound volumes on the trade lane have been under tremendous pressure since the tariff uncertainty, forcing carriers to push ocean rates down to recent lows. Carriers have also been strategically adjusting capacity through blank calls to keep supply-demand dynamics as balanced as possible. Imports from India to the USEC have fallen 32% since the trade dispute broke out, from 93,160 TEUs in August to 63,590 TEUs in December, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. And spot rates from India to the USEC that were $2,640 per FEU on Aug. 1 have steadily fallen since to $1,212.50 as of Jan. 30, down 54%, according to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Major carriers have been unable to hold on to their intended rate hikes over the past few months with little demand support emerging. Contact Bency Mathew at bencyvmathew@gmail.com .

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