<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">With two attacks on commercial vessels in recent days, including one that killed three mariners, any thought that the risk in the Red Sea was easing to the point the Suez route might be restored in the near future has vanished.</div>

With two attacks on commercial vessels in recent days, including one that killed three mariners, any thought that the risk in the Red Sea was easing to the point the Suez route might be restored in the near future has vanished.

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<div class="phx-topic">With no attacks on shipping off the Yemeni coast since December — that is, until two strikes over the past three days — a feeling was taking hold among some ocean carriers that the threat posed by Houthi militants was greatly diminished. And as the threat diminished it would become more difficult for carriers to justify the diversions around southern Africa, which for the past 18 months have absorbed an estimated 10% of global capacity, extending transit times and putting carriers in a stronger position to absorb an influx of new capacity. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6040921_0.1.jpg"></img></div>Now with two attacks in recent days, including one that killed three mariners, any thought that the risk was easing to the point the Suez route might be reopened in the near future has vanished. “The dynamic in the Red Sea has changed materially as compared to expectations roughly a month ago in which there had been a growing view that Red Sea transits would start to pick up following the US-Houthi agreement and the long period in which merchant ships had not been attacked,” Jefferies wrote on July 8. While the Houthi militia may have held fire for several months, the restraint should not be taken as a sign the group’s ability to strike is diminished. Although such a conclusion could be inferred from military setbacks experienced across the network of Iran-backed militia and states such as Syria, in reality, the Houthis remain a lethal force, as they showed this week, analysts say. “The most recent Houthi attacks … allow them to demonstrate that, unlike Iran and its other proxy groups in the region, they remain undeterred by the threat of US or Israeli military confrontation,” Jack Kennedy, head of Middle East and North Africa country risk at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, told the Journal of Commerce Wednesday. Israel and the US have upped their strikes on rebels in Yemen in recent months. But without troops on the ground to uproot the rebels, Kennedy has been saying for more than a year that it would be extremely difficult to eliminate the group as a danger to shipping through aerial military action alone. “Houthi missile attack capabilities are highly decentralized across the territory they control,” Kennedy said. “These are unlikely to be fully replenished to levels in place prior to US-led and Israeli airstrikes, but seizures of weapons shipments in the Red Sea and the Houthis’ own industrial manufacturing capacity suggest that they will have been able to partially rebuild weapons stockpiles.” Kennedy added that the original spark for Houthi attacks on shipping — Israeli operations in Gaza — remains a core rationale for their strikes. “It is highly likely that attack attempts on vessels will continue while Israeli military operations in Gaza are ongoing,” he said. The result is an extended timeline, quite possibly into 2026, for any large-scale return to Suez routings. “With the developments over the past few days there is not much chance of a reversal back to a Suez routing for the major container lines in the short to medium term,” shipping analyst and Journal of Commerce contributor Lars Jensen wrote on LinkedIn this week. Added Kennedy: “We expect that Houthi attack activity will continue through 2025 at least.” <h3>Ongoing disruption post-COVID </h3>For ocean carriers who didn’t create the crisis and yet are largely immune from criticism for continuing the longer routings around Africa to protect their crews, ships and cargo, the crisis is part of a larger narrative of ongoing post-COVID-19 disruption, alongside basic supply and demand, underpinning market dynamics. Carriers face intense profit pressures over the next few years, with Drewry last month saying it expects industry operating profit to fall to $20 billion this year, down from over $50 billion in 2024. But the pressure would be much greater without the absorption of capacity due to the Red Sea attacks and resultant diversions. Maersk in May ruled out a return to normal Suez routings this year despite US President Donald Trump on May 6 saying the Houthis “have capitulated” and agreed to stop attacks on commercial shipping in the region. But as the new attacks clearly showed, the Houthis were just lying low, meaning the status quo of limited container ship transits through the Suez remains as entrenched as ever. Contact Peter Tirschwell at <a href="mailto:peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com">peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

With no attacks on shipping off the Yemeni coast since December — that is, until two strikes over the past three days — a feeling was taking hold among some ocean carriers that the threat posed by Houthi militants was greatly diminished. And as the threat diminished it would become more difficult for carriers to justify the diversions around southern Africa, which for the past 18 months have absorbed an estimated 10% of global capacity, extending transit times and putting carriers in a stronger position to absorb an influx of new capacity. Now with two attacks in recent days, including one that killed three mariners, any thought that the risk was easing to the point the Suez route might be reopened in the near future has vanished. “The dynamic in the Red Sea has changed materially as compared to expectations roughly a month ago in which there had been a growing view that Red Sea transits would start to pick up following the US-Houthi agreement and the long period in which merchant ships had not been attacked,” Jefferies wrote on July 8. While the Houthi militia may have held fire for several months, the restraint should not be taken as a sign the group’s ability to strike is diminished. Although such a conclusion could be inferred from military setbacks experienced across the network of Iran-backed militia and states such as Syria, in reality, the Houthis remain a lethal force, as they showed this week, analysts say. “The most recent Houthi attacks … allow them to demonstrate that, unlike Iran and its other proxy groups in the region, they remain undeterred by the threat of US or Israeli military confrontation,” Jack Kennedy, head of Middle East and North Africa country risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence, told the Journal of Commerce Wednesday. Israel and the US have upped their strikes on rebels in Yemen in recent months. But without troops on the ground to uproot the rebels, Kennedy has been saying for more than a year that it would be extremely difficult to eliminate the group as a danger to shipping through aerial military action alone. “Houthi missile attack capabilities are highly decentralized across the territory they control,” Kennedy said. “These are unlikely to be fully replenished to levels in place prior to US-led and Israeli airstrikes, but seizures of weapons shipments in the Red Sea and the Houthis’ own industrial manufacturing capacity suggest that they will have been able to partially rebuild weapons stockpiles.” Kennedy added that the original spark for Houthi attacks on shipping — Israeli operations in Gaza — remains a core rationale for their strikes. “It is highly likely that attack attempts on vessels will continue while Israeli military operations in Gaza are ongoing,” he said. The result is an extended timeline, quite possibly into 2026, for any large-scale return to Suez routings. “With the developments over the past few days there is not much chance of a reversal back to a Suez routing for the major container lines in the short to medium term,” shipping analyst and Journal of Commerce contributor Lars Jensen wrote on LinkedIn this week. Added Kennedy: “We expect that Houthi attack activity will continue through 2025 at least.” Ongoing disruption post-COVID For ocean carriers who didn’t create the crisis and yet are largely immune from criticism for continuing the longer routings around Africa to protect their crews, ships and cargo, the crisis is part of a larger narrative of ongoing post-COVID-19 disruption, alongside basic supply and demand, underpinning market dynamics. Carriers face intense profit pressures over the next few years, with Drewry last month saying it expects industry operating profit to fall to $20 billion this year, down from over $50 billion in 2024. But the pressure would be much greater without the absorption of capacity due to the Red Sea attacks and resultant diversions. Maersk in May ruled out a return to normal Suez routings this year despite US President Donald Trump on May 6 saying the Houthis “have capitulated” and agreed to stop attacks on commercial shipping in the region. But as the new attacks clearly showed, the Houthis were just lying low, meaning the status quo of limited container ship transits through the Suez remains as entrenched as ever. Contact Peter Tirschwell at peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com .

Container Shipping News

Container lines

Maritime

New Houthi attacks likely kill hopes of shipping returning to Red Sea this year

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Mediterranean Shipping Co. is furthering its lead in vessel tonnage so far this year as it absorbs more than double the amount of new capacity added by No. 2 carrier Maersk. </div>

Mediterranean Shipping Co. is furthering its lead in vessel tonnage so far this year as it absorbs more than double the amount of new capacity added by No. 2 carrier Maersk.

<div class="phx-topic">Mediterranean Shipping Co. widened its already leading market share among ocean carriers as its fleet added the most ships in the first half of 2025, according to Alphaliner. Many of those new ships, though, are entering non-US trades as trans-Pacific demand appears to be ebbing for the remainder of the year. MSC’s fleet grew 5.5% in the first half, Alphaliner said in its weekly newsletter Wednesday. Only Ocean Network Express (ONE) saw a higher growth rate during that period at 5.9%, but MSC outstripped others for the most new capacity, adding some 365,173 TEUs to its fleet, Alphaliner said. The additional capacity, a combination of newbuild deliveries and acquisitions of second-hand ships, brings MSC’s total fleet to over 6.6 million TEUs, Alphaliner said. It added that MSC’s “relentless pursuit of capacity” has widened the gap with its former 2M partner Maersk, which added 170,371 TEUs during the first half of 2025 and brought its capacity to 4.5 million TEUs. “To put this into perspective, this gap [between MSC and Maersk] is equal to the entire fleet of ONE,” Alphaliner said, adding MSC is expected to take delivery of another 380,000 TEUs of newbuild capacity during the second half of 2025. Alphaliner said Maersk’s goal is not to enlarge its fleet as much as it aims to replace older vessels and make its network more efficient. It added that CMA CGM, which has the second-largest order book of new ships at 1.5 million TEUs, is “set to overtake Maersk in the coming years” in terms of fleet size. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="00f898cc-0bf5-4e4d-80d3-6db9454b1165"></dynamic-object></div><h3>Ships head to non-US markets </h3>During a speech last month to agriculture shippers, MSC’s US president, Fabio Santucci, said that while the fleet buildup may look excessive, it will head off even worse delays for shippers. Port congestion ties up about 10% of the global feet, he said, while the ongoing diversions around southern Africa absorb another 6%. MSC’s additional tonnage “is being fully absorbed and utilized and we are able to move cargo at 65% schedule reliability,” Santucci said. “Had we been more responsible financially, we would have had fewer ships, but the challenge is 50% schedule reliability.” While Santucci noted that MSC’s trans-Pacific reliability is hovering near 80%, much of the new tonnage is not currently serving US markets. Of 25 post-Panamax vessels delivered to MSC in the first half of 2025, only one — the 8,496-TEU MSC Benin — has called the US West Coast, according to satellite data from Sea-web, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Santucci said MSC is seeing the most cargo growth outside the US, with South America and Africa seeing respective growth of 10% and 12% during the first half of the year. Europe is also growing “well above average,” he said. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Mediterranean Shipping Co. widened its already leading market share among ocean carriers as its fleet added the most ships in the first half of 2025, according to Alphaliner. Many of those new ships, though, are entering non-US trades as trans-Pacific demand appears to be ebbing for the remainder of the year. MSC’s fleet grew 5.5% in the first half, Alphaliner said in its weekly newsletter Wednesday. Only Ocean Network Express (ONE) saw a higher growth rate during that period at 5.9%, but MSC outstripped others for the most new capacity, adding some 365,173 TEUs to its fleet, Alphaliner said. The additional capacity, a combination of newbuild deliveries and acquisitions of second-hand ships, brings MSC’s total fleet to over 6.6 million TEUs, Alphaliner said. It added that MSC’s “relentless pursuit of capacity” has widened the gap with its former 2M partner Maersk, which added 170,371 TEUs during the first half of 2025 and brought its capacity to 4.5 million TEUs. “To put this into perspective, this gap [between MSC and Maersk] is equal to the entire fleet of ONE,” Alphaliner said, adding MSC is expected to take delivery of another 380,000 TEUs of newbuild capacity during the second half of 2025. Alphaliner said Maersk’s goal is not to enlarge its fleet as much as it aims to replace older vessels and make its network more efficient. It added that CMA CGM, which has the second-largest order book of new ships at 1.5 million TEUs, is “set to overtake Maersk in the coming years” in terms of fleet size. Ships head to non-US markets During a speech last month to agriculture shippers, MSC’s US president, Fabio Santucci, said that while the fleet buildup may look excessive, it will head off even worse delays for shippers. Port congestion ties up about 10% of the global feet, he said, while the ongoing diversions around southern Africa absorb another 6%. MSC’s additional tonnage “is being fully absorbed and utilized and we are able to move cargo at 65% schedule reliability,” Santucci said. “Had we been more responsible financially, we would have had fewer ships, but the challenge is 50% schedule reliability.” While Santucci noted that MSC’s trans-Pacific reliability is hovering near 80%, much of the new tonnage is not currently serving US markets. Of 25 post-Panamax vessels delivered to MSC in the first half of 2025, only one — the 8,496-TEU MSC Benin — has called the US West Coast, according to satellite data from Sea-web, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Santucci said MSC is seeing the most cargo growth outside the US, with South America and Africa seeing respective growth of 10% and 12% during the first half of the year. Europe is also growing “well above average,” he said. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Asia-Europe

Trans-Pacific

MSC outstripping rivals on new capacity for 2025: Alphaliner

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">But the mini rush will be short-lived, with imports falling month to month between August and November, the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates said in their latest Global Port Tracker.</div>

But the mini rush will be short-lived, with imports falling month to month between August and November, the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates said in their latest Global Port Tracker.

<div class="phx-topic">US imports in July are expected to hit their highest level in at least the past 18 months and their peak for 2025, driven by the Aug. 1 extension granted by the Trump administration before the implementation of so-called reciprocal tariffs on a host of US trading partners, a major retail group said Wednesday. But the mini rush will be short-lived, with imports falling month to month between August and November, the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates said in their latest Global Port Tracker (GPT). “The tariff situation remains highly fluid and retailers are working hard to stock up for the holiday season before the various tariffs that have been announced and paused actually take effect,” Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said. “Retailers have brought in as much merchandise as possible ahead of the reciprocal tariffs taking effect...” The White House’s unexpected extension of a 90-day pause in new tariffs that were due to take effect July 9 caused the NRF and Hackett to upgrade their import projections for July through October compared with June’s GPT. And while Gold said the brief extension was “greatly appreciated” by retailers, he chided the Trump administration for the seeming whiplash nature of its tariff policy. “...Uncertainty over tariffs makes it increasingly difficult for retailers to plan, especially small businesses that have no capacity to absorb tariffs,” he said. “...It is vital for the administration to finalize negotiations with our trading partners and provide stability and certainty for US retailers.” <h3>Big bump in July forecast </h3>The GPT’s updated forecast calls for 2.36 million TEUs in US imports in July, up almost 11% from the June GPT and surpassing the 2.32 million TEUs brought in during July 2024. July is the only month in the second half of 2025 forecast to see year-over-year increases, so far. In August, retailers expect US imports to reach 2.08 million TEUs, up 5% from the forecast made in June but more than 10% under the 2.32 million TEUs imported in August 2024. September import projections were upgraded to 1.82 million TEUs — up 2.2% from the projection made last month but nearly 20% below year-ago levels. October’s import forecast increased by just half a percent to 1.81 million TEUs, 19.1% below volumes from October 2024. In its initial forecast for November, the GPT pegs imports at 1.7 million TEUs, down 16.2% year over year. Amid the forecasts for significant year-over-year import declines for the second half of 2025, Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett pointed to supply chain uncertainty exacerbated by shifting tariff policies. “The global supply chain functions best in a trade environment that is smooth and predictable,” he said. “Instead, it has been forced to contend with erratic policies and geopolitical volatility.” The latest GPT projects June’s import volumes will come in at 2.06 million TEUs, up about 2.5% from the forecast made last month. Meanwhile, May’s actual volume of 1.95 million TEUs was about 2% higher than projected in the prior GPT. As volumes in the trans-Pacific look to retract beyond July, carriers have responded with reductions to capacity, with plans to deploy 6.2% less tonnage from Asia to the US West Coast in August than in July, according to maritime intelligence provider eeSea. The GPT is published monthly using import data collected from 13 ports on the US East, West and Gulf coasts. Contact Laura Robb at <a href="mailto:Laura.Robb@spglobal.com">laura.robb@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

US imports in July are expected to hit their highest level in at least the past 18 months and their peak for 2025, driven by the Aug. 1 extension granted by the Trump administration before the implementation of so-called reciprocal tariffs on a host of US trading partners, a major retail group said Wednesday. But the mini rush will be short-lived, with imports falling month to month between August and November, the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates said in their latest Global Port Tracker (GPT). “The tariff situation remains highly fluid and retailers are working hard to stock up for the holiday season before the various tariffs that have been announced and paused actually take effect,” Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said. “Retailers have brought in as much merchandise as possible ahead of the reciprocal tariffs taking effect...” The White House’s unexpected extension of a 90-day pause in new tariffs that were due to take effect July 9 caused the NRF and Hackett to upgrade their import projections for July through October compared with June’s GPT. And while Gold said the brief extension was “greatly appreciated” by retailers, he chided the Trump administration for the seeming whiplash nature of its tariff policy. “...Uncertainty over tariffs makes it increasingly difficult for retailers to plan, especially small businesses that have no capacity to absorb tariffs,” he said. “...It is vital for the administration to finalize negotiations with our trading partners and provide stability and certainty for US retailers.” Big bump in July forecast The GPT’s updated forecast calls for 2.36 million TEUs in US imports in July, up almost 11% from the June GPT and surpassing the 2.32 million TEUs brought in during July 2024. July is the only month in the second half of 2025 forecast to see year-over-year increases, so far. In August, retailers expect US imports to reach 2.08 million TEUs, up 5% from the forecast made in June but more than 10% under the 2.32 million TEUs imported in August 2024. September import projections were upgraded to 1.82 million TEUs — up 2.2% from the projection made last month but nearly 20% below year-ago levels. October’s import forecast increased by just half a percent to 1.81 million TEUs, 19.1% below volumes from October 2024. In its initial forecast for November, the GPT pegs imports at 1.7 million TEUs, down 16.2% year over year. Amid the forecasts for significant year-over-year import declines for the second half of 2025, Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett pointed to supply chain uncertainty exacerbated by shifting tariff policies. “The global supply chain functions best in a trade environment that is smooth and predictable,” he said. “Instead, it has been forced to contend with erratic policies and geopolitical volatility.” The latest GPT projects June’s import volumes will come in at 2.06 million TEUs, up about 2.5% from the forecast made last month. Meanwhile, May’s actual volume of 1.95 million TEUs was about 2% higher than projected in the prior GPT. As volumes in the trans-Pacific look to retract beyond July, carriers have responded with reductions to capacity, with plans to deploy 6.2% less tonnage from Asia to the US West Coast in August than in July, according to maritime intelligence provider eeSea. The GPT is published monthly using import data collected from 13 ports on the US East, West and Gulf coasts. Contact Laura Robb at laura.robb@spglobal.com .

Port News

North American ports

Supply chain

US retailers upgrade import forecast after tariff deadline extended to Aug. 1

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The moves by CMA CGM were made to improve westbound transit times that remain a challenge due to ongoing vessel diversions around southern Africa. </div>

The moves by CMA CGM were made to improve westbound transit times that remain a challenge due to ongoing vessel diversions around southern Africa.

<div class="phx-topic">CMA CGM has implemented a series of adjustments to its premier “Indamex” service between India and the US East Coast (USEC) to better compete with its peers on the trade lane, including dropping a long-time call at Charleston. The move was made to improve westbound transit times that remain a challenge due to ongoing vessel diversions around southern Africa. The French carrier will also phase in three additional ships into the network to offer a weekly rotation as consistently as possible as sporadic void calls continue to vex schedule reliability. The service has blanked four Indian sailings through June and July. “The Indamex lineup is being reinforced by adding three vessels to the fleet,” CMA CGM said in a customer advisory. With the enhancements, the carrier estimates the Indamex roundtrip voyage duration will improve to 84 days from the current 90-plus days. The full revised rotation will be Pakistan’s Port Qasim, Nhava Sheva, Mundra, Colombo, New York, Norfolk, Savannah, and back to Port Qasim. But CMA CGM said the call at Port Qasim remains restricted to import discharge operations amid transit cargo restrictions for Pakistani containers at Indian ports, an issue tied to recent regional trade tensions. The reorganized routing also removes a temporary call to Khalifa Port in Abu Dhabi that the carrier introduced in May to handle Pakistani transshipments, which are now expected to be relayed entirely over Colombo in Sri Lanka. For Indian loads, the changes are due to begin with the Belita that has an estimated time of arrival of July 13 in Nhava Sheva Port, berthing data shows. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="56199e2b-5df4-468f-a149-b18ae7c32e51"></dynamic-object></div>The Indamex service has been a long-time market leader on the India-USEC route. It is now a standalone operation for CMA CGM following Hapag-Lloyd’s exit from the network in February as it shifted to the Gemini Cooperation alliance with Maersk. The Cosco Shipping and OOCL subsidiary co-load on the loop via weekly slot space arrangements with CMA CGM. The service changes also appear to be an attempt by CMA CGM to regain market share lost to competitors — Maersk, in particular, after it introduced an enhanced “MECL” loop on the trade lane in February. Still, Hapag-Lloyd’s TPI service leads India-North America volumes, accounting for about 25% of the market, according to anecdotal industry data. Meanwhile, most India-USEC carriers, including Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM, have jettisoned rate hike plans they were to implement beginning July 15, in another indication of their faltering price recovery efforts. Still, spot rates on the trade lane have shown some strength so far this month, with Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, pegging rates at $2,800 per FEU as of July 8, up 6% on the week. Contact Bency Mathew at <a href="mailto:bencyvmathew@gmail.com">bencyvmathew@gmail.com</a>.</div>

CMA CGM has implemented a series of adjustments to its premier “Indamex” service between India and the US East Coast (USEC) to better compete with its peers on the trade lane, including dropping a long-time call at Charleston. The move was made to improve westbound transit times that remain a challenge due to ongoing vessel diversions around southern Africa. The French carrier will also phase in three additional ships into the network to offer a weekly rotation as consistently as possible as sporadic void calls continue to vex schedule reliability. The service has blanked four Indian sailings through June and July. “The Indamex lineup is being reinforced by adding three vessels to the fleet,” CMA CGM said in a customer advisory. With the enhancements, the carrier estimates the Indamex roundtrip voyage duration will improve to 84 days from the current 90-plus days. The full revised rotation will be Pakistan’s Port Qasim, Nhava Sheva, Mundra, Colombo, New York, Norfolk, Savannah, and back to Port Qasim. But CMA CGM said the call at Port Qasim remains restricted to import discharge operations amid transit cargo restrictions for Pakistani containers at Indian ports, an issue tied to recent regional trade tensions. The reorganized routing also removes a temporary call to Khalifa Port in Abu Dhabi that the carrier introduced in May to handle Pakistani transshipments, which are now expected to be relayed entirely over Colombo in Sri Lanka. For Indian loads, the changes are due to begin with the Belita that has an estimated time of arrival of July 13 in Nhava Sheva Port, berthing data shows. The Indamex service has been a long-time market leader on the India-USEC route. It is now a standalone operation for CMA CGM following Hapag-Lloyd’s exit from the network in February as it shifted to the Gemini Cooperation alliance with Maersk. The Cosco Shipping and OOCL subsidiary co-load on the loop via weekly slot space arrangements with CMA CGM. The service changes also appear to be an attempt by CMA CGM to regain market share lost to competitors — Maersk, in particular, after it introduced an enhanced “MECL” loop on the trade lane in February. Still, Hapag-Lloyd’s TPI service leads India-North America volumes, accounting for about 25% of the market, according to anecdotal industry data. Meanwhile, most India-USEC carriers, including Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM, have jettisoned rate hike plans they were to implement beginning July 15, in another indication of their faltering price recovery efforts. Still, spot rates on the trade lane have shown some strength so far this month, with Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, pegging rates at $2,800 per FEU as of July 8, up 6% on the week. Contact Bency Mathew at bencyvmathew@gmail.com .

India-US ‘Indamex’ string drops Charleston, adds more ships to bolster reliability

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">In the latest course correction in the US’ busiest trade lane, carriers are set to deploy less tonnage in August as spot rates fall and retail import forecasts weaken. </div>

In the latest course correction in the US’ busiest trade lane, carriers are set to deploy less tonnage in August as spot rates fall and retail import forecasts weaken.

<div class="phx-topic">Container lines are pulling back on the deployment of tonnage from Asia to the US in August in the latest course correction linked to stop-and-start import demand amid tariff uncertainty. Container lines are set to deploy 6.2% less tonnage from Asia to the US West Coast in August than in July, equating to 90,000 TEUs of capacity, according to maritime intelligence provider eeSea. Comparatively, ocean capacity from Asia to US East and Gulf coasts will be trimmed by just 1.7%. Mediterranean Shipping Co. this week suspended its Pearl service to Long Beach, with the last sailing out of Xiamen on July 13, according to Kuehne + Nagel’s SeaExplorer tool. Container lines can also blank sailings — removing ships from services or skipping ports — to further calibrate capacity to weakening demand.<div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="0d272fa5-b752-4ec3-a342-964ef1a2b1f3"></dynamic-object></div>The rate of blanking compared with deployed capacity in May reached 26%, equating to 262,000 TEUs, as carriers adjusted networks, according to eeSea. In June, the rate was 9.5%. <h3>Tariff whiplash </h3>Carriers began pushing capacity back into the trade in May in anticipation of a surge of imports from China, driven by an early peak season caused in large part by the 90-day reprieve on higher US tariffs. Just a month earlier, US importers canceled China bookings after President Donald Trump on April 9 imposed 145% tariffs. In response, ocean carriers blanked sailings and suspended services, although Trump soon reversed course. Now carriers face an expanding capacity overhang amid downbeat retail import forecasts and the surge in US imports linked to the initial tariff reprieve in its last gasp. The tentative agreement with China to bring US tariffs to 55% hasn’t had much impact on importers’ peak season ordering, thanks to more than eight months of frontloading shipments and a narrow window for getting goods in before the year-end shopping season. While US retailers <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/pause-on-tariffs-prompts-us-retailers-to-upgrade-summer-import-forecast-6022230">upgraded their import forecast</a> slightly in early June, their volume expectations still lag the same period in 2024. US imports are expected to reach 2.13 million TEUs this month, down from 2.32 million TEUs a year ago, according to the Global Port Tracker. Retailers plan to bring in 14.7% less volume, equating to 331,000 TEUs of capacity, next month compared with August 2024. US laden imports from Asia have been falling since September, with the exception of a short-lived recovery in April, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. In September, inbound volumes hit 1.79 million TEUs, falling to 1.4 million TEUs by May. Container spot rates from Asia to the US, a barometer of how capacity is matching up to demand, have been falling for a month, according to various indexes. For example, container spot rates from Shanghai to the US West Coast last week were less than half the price a month ago, at $2,089 per FEU, according to the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index. Contact Mark Szakonyi at <a href="mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com ">mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Container lines are pulling back on the deployment of tonnage from Asia to the US in August in the latest course correction linked to stop-and-start import demand amid tariff uncertainty. Container lines are set to deploy 6.2% less tonnage from Asia to the US West Coast in August than in July, equating to 90,000 TEUs of capacity, according to maritime intelligence provider eeSea. Comparatively, ocean capacity from Asia to US East and Gulf coasts will be trimmed by just 1.7%. Mediterranean Shipping Co. this week suspended its Pearl service to Long Beach, with the last sailing out of Xiamen on July 13, according to Kuehne + Nagel’s SeaExplorer tool. Container lines can also blank sailings — removing ships from services or skipping ports — to further calibrate capacity to weakening demand. The rate of blanking compared with deployed capacity in May reached 26%, equating to 262,000 TEUs, as carriers adjusted networks, according to eeSea. In June, the rate was 9.5%. Tariff whiplash Carriers began pushing capacity back into the trade in May in anticipation of a surge of imports from China, driven by an early peak season caused in large part by the 90-day reprieve on higher US tariffs. Just a month earlier, US importers canceled China bookings after President Donald Trump on April 9 imposed 145% tariffs. In response, ocean carriers blanked sailings and suspended services, although Trump soon reversed course. Now carriers face an expanding capacity overhang amid downbeat retail import forecasts and the surge in US imports linked to the initial tariff reprieve in its last gasp. The tentative agreement with China to bring US tariffs to 55% hasn’t had much impact on importers’ peak season ordering, thanks to more than eight months of frontloading shipments and a narrow window for getting goods in before the year-end shopping season. While US retailers upgraded their import forecast slightly in early June, their volume expectations still lag the same period in 2024. US imports are expected to reach 2.13 million TEUs this month, down from 2.32 million TEUs a year ago, according to the Global Port Tracker. Retailers plan to bring in 14.7% less volume, equating to 331,000 TEUs of capacity, next month compared with August 2024. US laden imports from Asia have been falling since September, with the exception of a short-lived recovery in April, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. In September, inbound volumes hit 1.79 million TEUs, falling to 1.4 million TEUs by May. Container spot rates from Asia to the US, a barometer of how capacity is matching up to demand, have been falling for a month, according to various indexes. For example, container spot rates from Shanghai to the US West Coast last week were less than half the price a month ago, at $2,089 per FEU, according to the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index. Contact Mark Szakonyi at mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com .

Container lines cutting trans-Pacific capacity overhang

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The routing impasse between the railroads threatens supply chain disruptions for ocean carrier CMA CGM, which has cargo booked on the service that is due to begin later this week.</div>

The routing impasse between the railroads threatens supply chain disruptions for ocean carrier CMA CGM, which has cargo booked on the service that is due to begin later this week.

<div class="phx-topic">BNSF Railway has filed an <a href="https://dcms-external.s3.amazonaws.com/DCMS_External_PROD/1751927358207/309737.pdf">emergency petition</a> with the US Surface Transportation Board (STB) to intervene in a dispute with Union Pacific Railroad (UP) in which BNSF alleges UP is blocking the launch of a new freight service between the Port of Oakland and Salt Lake City. The impasse threatens supply chain disruptions for ocean carrier CMA CGM, which has cargo booked on the service that is due to begin later this week. The disagreement involves how BNSF will route trains between Oakland and Salt Lake City. BNSF wants to run a double-stack intermodal service along the so-called Northern Route, which passes through Northern California and Nevada. UP said BNSF must instead use the Southern Route over Donner Pass near Lake Tahoe, where UP invested in costly tunnel upgrades more than a decade ago. The route selected has financial implications for both Class I railroads, including how many train crews are needed and whether BNSF would owe Union Pacific millions of dollars for using the upgraded Southern Route. BNSF has the right to use UP-owned tracks between Oakland and Salt Lake City. However, UP controls dispatching and provides train crews, and without its cooperation, BNSF cannot move containers across the corridor. The dispute, meanwhile, threatens the launch of an international intermodal service scheduled for later this week. CMA CGM called the matter “deeply concerning” and costly for cargo owners. “Without immediate resolution, our supply chain will be disrupted, impacting our customers across the region, including potentially a loss of business,” Bob Basila, senior vice president of CMA CGM, wrote in <a href="https://dcms-external.s3.amazonaws.com/DCMS_External_PROD/1751927391221/309738.pdf">a filing to the STB Monday</a>. “We have made substantial operational and commercial commitments based on the availability of this service, and the current impasse threatens to undermine those investments.” BNSF said emergency relief is necessary given freight has already arrived in Oakland. “The first empty train arrived in Salt Lake City [July 6] and the first container arrived [July 7],” BNSF wrote Monday in its petition to the STB. “Once loaded, the first westbound train is expected to leave Salt Lake City this week. BNSF anticipates the first eastbound movement of BNSF double-stack intermodal trains over the Northern Route will begin as early as later this week.” There is potential for business growth in Salt Lake City for ocean carriers. In 2020, ocean carriers handled nearly 52,000 TEUs between Oakland and Salt Lake City, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. The total, however, has fallen each subsequent year, ending last year at 16,600 TEUs. If ocean carriers were able to return to the 2020 total, it would be enough volume to support multiple trains per week in both directions, although it’s unlikely there would be daily trains. <h3>Allegations fly in both directions </h3>BNSF told the STB it would prefer to use the Northern Route and claimed UP is employing delay tactics in retaliation for BNSF signing multi-year agreements with two former UP ocean carrier partners, including CMA CGM. UP alleges that BNSF did not provide sufficient prior notice to hire crews and plan resources to handle up to five trains per week in both directions between Oakland and Salt Lake City and requires more time to prepare. Carl Garrison, UP’s vice president of network planning and operations, said BNSF only notified UP senior staff of its needs on June 20. BNSF countered that it contacted UP on May 2, including written correspondence and follow-up phone calls. “If BNSF cannot fulfill its promises to begin running new intermodal service this week, it has only itself to blame,” UP wrote in <a href="https://dcms-external.s3.amazonaws.com/DCMS_External_PROD/1751971741044/309739.pdf">its response Monday</a> to the STB. UP also said trains on the Northern Route primarily run westbound, so running a bi-directional service would require significant operational adjustments and could degrade the performance of existing trains. It added that the Southern Route is best equipped to handle bi-directional traffic. The Southern Route was upgraded in 2009 to accommodate double-stack intermodal trains. If BNSF uses it, the company could be required to reimburse UP for up to half the cost of those improvements. BNSF argues doing so would cost tens of millions of dollars, making the new service financially unsustainable. BNSF would only need to pay for crew services, dispatching and track access on the Northern Route, a much lower figure. UP also said the matter should go through the normal STB dispute process, not an emergency filing. The normal dispute resolution process outlined in a 2002 agreement includes meetings, executive escalation, and potential arbitration or mediation, which can take far longer to resolve. Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

BNSF Railway has filed an emergency petition with the US Surface Transportation Board (STB) to intervene in a dispute with Union Pacific Railroad (UP) in which BNSF alleges UP is blocking the launch of a new freight service between the Port of Oakland and Salt Lake City. The impasse threatens supply chain disruptions for ocean carrier CMA CGM, which has cargo booked on the service that is due to begin later this week. The disagreement involves how BNSF will route trains between Oakland and Salt Lake City. BNSF wants to run a double-stack intermodal service along the so-called Northern Route, which passes through Northern California and Nevada. UP said BNSF must instead use the Southern Route over Donner Pass near Lake Tahoe, where UP invested in costly tunnel upgrades more than a decade ago. The route selected has financial implications for both Class I railroads, including how many train crews are needed and whether BNSF would owe Union Pacific millions of dollars for using the upgraded Southern Route. BNSF has the right to use UP-owned tracks between Oakland and Salt Lake City. However, UP controls dispatching and provides train crews, and without its cooperation, BNSF cannot move containers across the corridor. The dispute, meanwhile, threatens the launch of an international intermodal service scheduled for later this week. CMA CGM called the matter “deeply concerning” and costly for cargo owners. “Without immediate resolution, our supply chain will be disrupted, impacting our customers across the region, including potentially a loss of business,” Bob Basila, senior vice president of CMA CGM, wrote in a filing to the STB Monday . “We have made substantial operational and commercial commitments based on the availability of this service, and the current impasse threatens to undermine those investments.” BNSF said emergency relief is necessary given freight has already arrived in Oakland. “The first empty train arrived in Salt Lake City [July 6] and the first container arrived [July 7],” BNSF wrote Monday in its petition to the STB. “Once loaded, the first westbound train is expected to leave Salt Lake City this week. BNSF anticipates the first eastbound movement of BNSF double-stack intermodal trains over the Northern Route will begin as early as later this week.” There is potential for business growth in Salt Lake City for ocean carriers. In 2020, ocean carriers handled nearly 52,000 TEUs between Oakland and Salt Lake City, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. The total, however, has fallen each subsequent year, ending last year at 16,600 TEUs. If ocean carriers were able to return to the 2020 total, it would be enough volume to support multiple trains per week in both directions, although it’s unlikely there would be daily trains. Allegations fly in both directions BNSF told the STB it would prefer to use the Northern Route and claimed UP is employing delay tactics in retaliation for BNSF signing multi-year agreements with two former UP ocean carrier partners, including CMA CGM. UP alleges that BNSF did not provide sufficient prior notice to hire crews and plan resources to handle up to five trains per week in both directions between Oakland and Salt Lake City and requires more time to prepare. Carl Garrison, UP’s vice president of network planning and operations, said BNSF only notified UP senior staff of its needs on June 20. BNSF countered that it contacted UP on May 2, including written correspondence and follow-up phone calls. “If BNSF cannot fulfill its promises to begin running new intermodal service this week, it has only itself to blame,” UP wrote in its response Monday to the STB. UP also said trains on the Northern Route primarily run westbound, so running a bi-directional service would require significant operational adjustments and could degrade the performance of existing trains. It added that the Southern Route is best equipped to handle bi-directional traffic. The Southern Route was upgraded in 2009 to accommodate double-stack intermodal trains. If BNSF uses it, the company could be required to reimburse UP for up to half the cost of those improvements. BNSF argues doing so would cost tens of millions of dollars, making the new service financially unsustainable. BNSF would only need to pay for crew services, dispatching and track access on the Northern Route, a much lower figure. UP also said the matter should go through the normal STB dispute process, not an emergency filing. The normal dispute resolution process outlined in a 2002 agreement includes meetings, executive escalation, and potential arbitration or mediation, which can take far longer to resolve. Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Surface

Rail News

North-American rail

Intermodal providers

BNSF-UP dispute threatens Oakland-SLC service, triggers STB petition

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The win for the trucking company at the Texas Supreme Court sets a powerful precedent that narrows the scope of liability in vehicular negligence cases, especially those involving unpredictable, high-impact crashes.</div>

The win for the trucking company at the Texas Supreme Court sets a powerful precedent that narrows the scope of liability in vehicular negligence cases, especially those involving unpredictable, high-impact crashes.

<div class="phx-topic">Shippers operating private trucking fleets will be buoyed by a June 27 decision by the Supreme Court of Texas, which overturned a nearly $100 million 2023 jury verdict in Werner Enterprises, Inc. v. Blake. The court held that the trucking company’s driver, although possibly negligent in how he operated his vehicle on icy roads, was not the proximate cause of a tragic cross-median crash that killed one child and left another permanently paralyzed. The case holds implications for truckload carriers, from large for-hire carriers such as Werner to smaller operators, but also for shippers operating their own private fleets who will be impacted by the precedent set by the court’s decision. That makes it more than merely a procedural victory for Werner Enterprises. It sets a powerful precedent that narrows the scope of liability in vehicular negligence cases, especially those involving unpredictable, high-impact crashes. <h3>Boundaries for shippers </h3>For private fleet operators and shippers with dedicated transportation assets, the implications are significant — and potentially transformative. The ruling offers clarity and potentially limits exposure in high-dollar catastrophic loss cases — particularly those involving third-party drivers who are the true proximate causes of an accident. Previously, plaintiffs’ attorneys have advanced theories of negligent training, hiring, or dispatch to hook employers into liability, even where their driver was not principally at fault. But the Werner decision sharply limits those derivative theories unless the employee’s conduct itself meets the substantial-factor threshold of proximate cause. This limitation matters in an era of rising “nuclear verdicts,” so-called liability verdicts that exceed $10 million, and increasingly aggressive plaintiff strategies in transportation litigation. It restores a degree of predictability to fleet liability by anchoring it in clearly demonstrable causation. <h3>The legal crux: proximate cause </h3>The court’s opinion turned on a technical yet crucial doctrine: proximate cause. Texas law requires that to hold someone liable for negligence, their actions must be a “substantial factor” in causing the injury — not just part of a chain of events. The accident occurred in December 2014, near Odessa, Texas, when an F-350 pickup truck, traveling too fast for the icy conditions, lost control, crossed a 42-foot grassy median, and collided head-on with a Werner 18-wheeler operated by Shiraz Ali, a driver in training. The collision killed seven-year-old Zackery Blake and severely injured his siblings and mother. A Texas jury found Werner and Ali liable, apportioning 70% of the responsibility to Werner and 14% of the responsibility to Ali and awarding $100 million in damages. Werner appealed, arguing that the plaintiffs failed to prove Ali’s driving was a proximate cause of the crash. The Texas Supreme Court ruled that his conduct was not a substantial factor in causing the injuries. The sole proximate cause, according to the opinion, was the F-350’s sudden loss of control. Crucially, the court emphasized that even if Ali’s speed “furnished the condition that made the injuries possible,” it was not enough for liability. The decision pivots on the idea that legal responsibility requires more than being in the wrong place at the wrong time. <h3>Victory for the principle of foreseeability </h3>The ruling clarifies a principle that private fleet operators have long sought courts to recognize: when another driver acts unpredictably and causes an accident, it is unfair — and legally unsound — to hold a fleet operator liable simply because their truck happened to be involved. The decision rebukes the lower court’s expansive view of foreseeability. While a collision might have been possible, the court held, it was not reasonably foreseeable that an out-of-control vehicle would cross a wide median and strike Ali’s truck before he had time to react. It was “a tragic happenstance of place and time,” the opinion declared, “but not a happenstance for which Ali or his employer can reasonably be held responsible.” <h3>A word of caution </h3>While this ruling is a win for carriers and shippers, it also underscores the importance of robust documentation and clear protocols. The Supreme Court of Texas accepted that Werner’s training may have been imperfect. But because the crash wasn’t proximately caused by that training — or by Ali’s conduct — it didn’t matter. Private fleets should take note: This ruling doesn’t absolve companies from preparing their drivers for adverse conditions or documenting compliance with safety protocols. But it does provide a legal firewall when accidents occur beyond their control. Matthew Leffler is a transportation attorney, adjunct professor of law at Michigan State University College of Law, and the host of the Armchair Attorney® Podcast. Contact him at <a href="mailto:matthew@armchairattorney.com">matthew@armchairattorney.com</a>.</div>

Shippers operating private trucking fleets will be buoyed by a June 27 decision by the Supreme Court of Texas, which overturned a nearly $100 million 2023 jury verdict in Werner Enterprises, Inc. v. Blake. The court held that the trucking company’s driver, although possibly negligent in how he operated his vehicle on icy roads, was not the proximate cause of a tragic cross-median crash that killed one child and left another permanently paralyzed. The case holds implications for truckload carriers, from large for-hire carriers such as Werner to smaller operators, but also for shippers operating their own private fleets who will be impacted by the precedent set by the court’s decision. That makes it more than merely a procedural victory for Werner Enterprises. It sets a powerful precedent that narrows the scope of liability in vehicular negligence cases, especially those involving unpredictable, high-impact crashes. Boundaries for shippers For private fleet operators and shippers with dedicated transportation assets, the implications are significant — and potentially transformative. The ruling offers clarity and potentially limits exposure in high-dollar catastrophic loss cases — particularly those involving third-party drivers who are the true proximate causes of an accident. Previously, plaintiffs’ attorneys have advanced theories of negligent training, hiring, or dispatch to hook employers into liability, even where their driver was not principally at fault. But the Werner decision sharply limits those derivative theories unless the employee’s conduct itself meets the substantial-factor threshold of proximate cause. This limitation matters in an era of rising “nuclear verdicts,” so-called liability verdicts that exceed $10 million, and increasingly aggressive plaintiff strategies in transportation litigation. It restores a degree of predictability to fleet liability by anchoring it in clearly demonstrable causation. The legal crux: proximate cause The court’s opinion turned on a technical yet crucial doctrine: proximate cause. Texas law requires that to hold someone liable for negligence, their actions must be a “substantial factor” in causing the injury — not just part of a chain of events. The accident occurred in December 2014, near Odessa, Texas, when an F-350 pickup truck, traveling too fast for the icy conditions, lost control, crossed a 42-foot grassy median, and collided head-on with a Werner 18-wheeler operated by Shiraz Ali, a driver in training. The collision killed seven-year-old Zackery Blake and severely injured his siblings and mother. A Texas jury found Werner and Ali liable, apportioning 70% of the responsibility to Werner and 14% of the responsibility to Ali and awarding $100 million in damages. Werner appealed, arguing that the plaintiffs failed to prove Ali’s driving was a proximate cause of the crash. The Texas Supreme Court ruled that his conduct was not a substantial factor in causing the injuries. The sole proximate cause, according to the opinion, was the F-350’s sudden loss of control. Crucially, the court emphasized that even if Ali’s speed “furnished the condition that made the injuries possible,” it was not enough for liability. The decision pivots on the idea that legal responsibility requires more than being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Victory for the principle of foreseeability The ruling clarifies a principle that private fleet operators have long sought courts to recognize: when another driver acts unpredictably and causes an accident, it is unfair — and legally unsound — to hold a fleet operator liable simply because their truck happened to be involved. The decision rebukes the lower court’s expansive view of foreseeability. While a collision might have been possible, the court held, it was not reasonably foreseeable that an out-of-control vehicle would cross a wide median and strike Ali’s truck before he had time to react. It was “a tragic happenstance of place and time,” the opinion declared, “but not a happenstance for which Ali or his employer can reasonably be held responsible.” A word of caution While this ruling is a win for carriers and shippers, it also underscores the importance of robust documentation and clear protocols. The Supreme Court of Texas accepted that Werner’s training may have been imperfect. But because the crash wasn’t proximately caused by that training — or by Ali’s conduct — it didn’t matter. Private fleets should take note: This ruling doesn’t absolve companies from preparing their drivers for adverse conditions or documenting compliance with safety protocols. But it does provide a legal firewall when accidents occur beyond their control. Matthew Leffler is a transportation attorney, adjunct professor of law at Michigan State University College of Law, and the host of the Armchair Attorney® Podcast. Contact him at matthew@armchairattorney.com .

Truckload

Werner victory in long-running court case has broad implications for truckload carriers

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The shipping industry needs a fundamentally new, collaborative approach to build true resilience. </div>

The shipping industry needs a fundamentally new, collaborative approach to build true resilience.

<div class="phx-topic">The early 2020s have reshaped the context for international supply chains. The COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and ongoing adverse events have exposed the sector’s complexities, underscoring the need for greater supply chain resilience. Visibility is a prerequisite for effective supply chain and carbon footprint management. In a world where blocs are driving apart and uncertainty is sky high, incremental improvements and isolated digital tools are no longer sufficient. The industry needs a fundamentally new, collaborative approach to build true resilience. Several high-profile digital supply chain initiatives have failed to deliver a lasting impact. The most prominent example, TradeLens, was discontinued despite strong backing and considerable investment. Its centralized model struggled to achieve broad industry support, ultimately faltering because it could not build the trust required to make such industry-wide solutions economically viable. Other platforms, such as Project44 and FourKites, have made significant strides in transport visibility. Yet, their traction remains limited. A common thread running through shortcomings is a lack of trust, insufficient perceived value, and governance models that do not serve the actors or the sector. Technology can only solve the challenges facing supply chains and logistics when it is <a href="https://unctad.org/news/transport-newsletter-article-no-96-fourth-quarter-2022">underpinned by collaboration</a> and trust. <h3>A different way forward </h3>The <a href="https://encoded-592c9deb-987b-4562-aa3c-9fa3d37d83e9.uri/http%3a%2f%2fwww.virtualwatchtower.org)">Virtual Watch Tower</a> (VWT) was conceived as a direct response to these challenges. It is not just another platform, but a neutral, industry-driven public good. Designed by and for the supply chain community, VWT’s mission is to create a digital infrastructure that links existing tools and platforms, enabling secure, selective, and trustworthy sharing of primary data to close gaps. What sets VWT apart is its governance and inclusivity. Rather than being controlled by a single actor or a small group, it is stewarded by neutral stakeholders and, in the future, a trustee-led foundation, ensuring neutrality and legitimacy. At VWT, shippers and logistics providers co-create solutions, ensuring that the digital infrastructure addresses real-world needs. At the heart of VWT’s approach is VWTnet, powered by <a href="http://www.twin.org">TWIN</a> — the Trade Worldwide Information Network. TWIN is a public-good digital data architecture and federated backbone that enables actors to share primary data on their own terms securely. New data gathering mechanisms will help the VWT members to fill current data gaps. This architecture has already demonstrated its value in the real world. The organic growth of VWT, expanding shipment by shipment and actor by actor, is a testament to the power of network effects when trust and interoperability are embedded in the system’s fabric. The VWT vision is that disruptions can be managed collaboratively. When a disruption occurs, whether it is a port strike or a climate-induced delay, all relevant parties involved in the shipments are informed in real time. Recovery plans can be coordinated rather than improvised, and operational flows can bemanaged with far greater agility. Equally transformative is VWT’s approach to emissions tracking. By leveraging primary operational data, VWT will enable shipment-specific emissions calculations, turning sustainability from a retrospective report into an actionable planning and management tool. Shippers can optimize routes for both speed and carbon impact, and authorities can align incentives with verified, real-time data. Emission performance becomes a differentiator, not a compliance afterthought. VWT’s work on these use cases has begun, and the first minimum viable product is scheduled to be launched in 2026. <h3>Building from ground up </h3>Perhaps the most significant differentiator of the community-driven VWT is not technical, but institutional. Drawing on lessons from failed efforts, VWT will be built from the ground up with a two-tier governance model: strategic oversight by a trustee-led foundation, and technical co-evolution by a global network of providers. This structure ensures legitimacy, trust, and adaptability, qualities that have attracted both private and public sector interest. Open forums, transparent decision-making, and participatory rule-setting have fostered a sense of belonging and ownership across the community. As a result, VWT is a movement — one that is evolving through continuous dialogue and shared stewardship among ecosystem actors. By early 2025, VWT surpassed 50 member organizations, with hundreds of shipments monitored, ready for an emerging ecosystem of services operating on top of VWTnet. The journey from concept to infrastructure has been propelled by relentless awareness-building, turning VWT from an idea and research project into a reference point for digital trade transformation. The next challenge is to institutionalize these gains, embedding VWT’s principles and protocols into the fabric of trade. This means maintaining open standards, transparent governance, and economic viability, especially for smaller actors. The ambition is to scale trust, sustain value, and drive adoption in a traditionally conservative industry. Wolfgang Lehmacher, who formerly served as a director at the World Economic Forum, holds many roles, including as a CEO emeritus of GeoPost Intercontinental and as an advisory board member of The Logistics and Supply Chain. He can be reached at <a href="mailto:w.lehmacher@gmail.com">w.lehmacher@gmail.com</a>. Mikael Lind is an adjunct professor of maritime informatics at Chalmers and Research Institutes of Sweden (RISE). He is co-editor of the first two books on maritime informatics and is co-editor of the book <a href="http://www.maritime-decarbonization.org/">Maritime Decarbonization</a>. He can be reached at <a href="mailto:Mikael.Lind@ri.se">Mikael.Lind@ri.se</a>. </div>

The early 2020s have reshaped the context for international supply chains. The COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and ongoing adverse events have exposed the sector’s complexities, underscoring the need for greater supply chain resilience. Visibility is a prerequisite for effective supply chain and carbon footprint management. In a world where blocs are driving apart and uncertainty is sky high, incremental improvements and isolated digital tools are no longer sufficient. The industry needs a fundamentally new, collaborative approach to build true resilience. Several high-profile digital supply chain initiatives have failed to deliver a lasting impact. The most prominent example, TradeLens, was discontinued despite strong backing and considerable investment. Its centralized model struggled to achieve broad industry support, ultimately faltering because it could not build the trust required to make such industry-wide solutions economically viable. Other platforms, such as Project44 and FourKites, have made significant strides in transport visibility. Yet, their traction remains limited. A common thread running through shortcomings is a lack of trust, insufficient perceived value, and governance models that do not serve the actors or the sector. Technology can only solve the challenges facing supply chains and logistics when it is underpinned by collaboration and trust. A different way forward The Virtual Watch Tower (VWT) was conceived as a direct response to these challenges. It is not just another platform, but a neutral, industry-driven public good. Designed by and for the supply chain community, VWT’s mission is to create a digital infrastructure that links existing tools and platforms, enabling secure, selective, and trustworthy sharing of primary data to close gaps. What sets VWT apart is its governance and inclusivity. Rather than being controlled by a single actor or a small group, it is stewarded by neutral stakeholders and, in the future, a trustee-led foundation, ensuring neutrality and legitimacy. At VWT, shippers and logistics providers co-create solutions, ensuring that the digital infrastructure addresses real-world needs. At the heart of VWT’s approach is VWTnet, powered by TWIN — the Trade Worldwide Information Network. TWIN is a public-good digital data architecture and federated backbone that enables actors to share primary data on their own terms securely. New data gathering mechanisms will help the VWT members to fill current data gaps. This architecture has already demonstrated its value in the real world. The organic growth of VWT, expanding shipment by shipment and actor by actor, is a testament to the power of network effects when trust and interoperability are embedded in the system’s fabric. The VWT vision is that disruptions can be managed collaboratively. When a disruption occurs, whether it is a port strike or a climate-induced delay, all relevant parties involved in the shipments are informed in real time. Recovery plans can be coordinated rather than improvised, and operational flows can bemanaged with far greater agility. Equally transformative is VWT’s approach to emissions tracking. By leveraging primary operational data, VWT will enable shipment-specific emissions calculations, turning sustainability from a retrospective report into an actionable planning and management tool. Shippers can optimize routes for both speed and carbon impact, and authorities can align incentives with verified, real-time data. Emission performance becomes a differentiator, not a compliance afterthought. VWT’s work on these use cases has begun, and the first minimum viable product is scheduled to be launched in 2026. Building from ground up Perhaps the most significant differentiator of the community-driven VWT is not technical, but institutional. Drawing on lessons from failed efforts, VWT will be built from the ground up with a two-tier governance model: strategic oversight by a trustee-led foundation, and technical co-evolution by a global network of providers. This structure ensures legitimacy, trust, and adaptability, qualities that have attracted both private and public sector interest. Open forums, transparent decision-making, and participatory rule-setting have fostered a sense of belonging and ownership across the community. As a result, VWT is a movement — one that is evolving through continuous dialogue and shared stewardship among ecosystem actors. By early 2025, VWT surpassed 50 member organizations, with hundreds of shipments monitored, ready for an emerging ecosystem of services operating on top of VWTnet. The journey from concept to infrastructure has been propelled by relentless awareness-building, turning VWT from an idea and research project into a reference point for digital trade transformation. The next challenge is to institutionalize these gains, embedding VWT’s principles and protocols into the fabric of trade. This means maintaining open standards, transparent governance, and economic viability, especially for smaller actors. The ambition is to scale trust, sustain value, and drive adoption in a traditionally conservative industry. Wolfgang Lehmacher, who formerly served as a director at the World Economic Forum, holds many roles, including as a CEO emeritus of GeoPost Intercontinental and as an advisory board member of The Logistics and Supply Chain. He can be reached at w.lehmacher@gmail.com . Mikael Lind is an adjunct professor of maritime informatics at Chalmers and Research Institutes of Sweden (RISE). He is co-editor of the first two books on maritime informatics and is co-editor of the book Maritime Decarbonization . He can be reached at Mikael.Lind@ri.se .

Logistics Technology News

Creating a digital platform for all

Notes: Average rail performance represents years 2017 to 2019 and 2023.

Average rail performance

Average rail performance: {valueY.formatNumber('#.##')}

Pandemic-era congestion (2020-2022)

Pandemic congestion: {valueY.formatNumber('#.##')}

Current Year

Current year: {valueY.formatNumber('#.##')}

Intermodal train cars holding refers to how many trains with containers or trailers are stopped outside of a designated terminal or crew change point due to a disruption to normal operations. The total in the chart is the rolling four-week average total of the US-based Class I railroads: BNSF Railway, CSX Transportation, Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific Railroad. Average rail performance is defined as the weekly performance prior to and after the pandemic-related freight surge. Pandemic-era congestion is the worst result for each week from 2020 through 2022. [STB](https://www.stb.gov/reports-data/rail-service-data/)

US intermodal trains held (STB)

US intermodal train holdings Gateway

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The long-term effects of US tariffs and the removal of the de minimis exemption have disrupted established air cargo flows and is clouding the industry outlook for the year.</div>

The long-term effects of US tariffs and the removal of the de minimis exemption have disrupted established air cargo flows and is clouding the industry outlook for the year.

<div class="phx-topic">The air cargo industry is flying into a bumpy second half, with persistent uncertainty over US tariff levels and the bleeding of freight due to new US “de minimis” curbs on low-value Chinese goods. It is impacting every aspect of the industry, from disrupting cargo flows to capacity deployment to demand, and clouding the outlook for the year. “We just simply cannot predict how that is going to play out,” Brie Carere, FedEx’s chief customer officer, told investors on the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call on June 24. After volumes from the US to China “deteriorated sharply,” in May, FedEx said it couldn’t provide a full-year forecast due to the “uncertain global demand,” environment. Global air cargo spot rates declined for a second consecutive month in June, down 4% year over year as the supply of capacity overtook demand for the first time in 19 months, according to rate benchmarking platform Xeneta. “We are starting to see the longer-term effects of all this uncertainty because a lot of damage has been done,” Niall van de Wouw, chief air freight officer at Xeneta, said in a market update Friday. “This might be the new reality for the foreseeable future as the industry is facing a much more challenging second half of the year. The air cargo market is losing altitude amid so much uncertainty,” he added. After eliminating the duty-free exemption for low-value shipments from China valued at under $800 on May 2, the US on May 14 reduced the de minimis tariff on the low-value imports from 120% to 54%. Items sent via post from China to the US will be charged a flat fee of $100, regardless of value. In 2024, e-commerce shipments accounted for about 50% of China-to-US air freight volume, filling dozens of freighters every day. Data from air cargo analyst Rotate showed that in the days following May 2, 40 freighters per day were pulled out of the trans-Pacific. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) noted in an industry outlook this week that tariffs and the removal of the de minimis exemption have disrupted established air cargo flows, forcing carriers to adjust or redeploy capacity on certain routes. “Uncertainty remains high, which impedes planning and optimization along the supply chain, and further loss of momentum in the coming months cannot be ruled out,” IATA warned. <h3>Refocusing e-commerce efforts </h3>Tim van Leeuwen, head of consulting at Rotate, said China-US air cargo demand in May fell 28% year over year, driven by declines in both general air cargo and e-commerce, with early June figures showing the trend has continued. “Direct China-US freighter capacity in June was down 11% compared to March, wiping out capacity growth we have seen over the past year and returning to similar capacity as June 2024,” he told the Journal of Commerce. “The e-commerce platforms seem to be refocusing their efforts, with significant growth of exports to the European Union and Asia-Pacific replacing lost demand to the US,” he noted. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="0bd62abc-58b3-4d7e-bfd7-9616da3c9b9c"></dynamic-object></div>Faced with such an uncertain and volatile trade lane, Van de Wouw said forwarders were taking a cautious approach to the market. “Around 46% of their procured volumes remain in the spot market, reflecting a belief that rates may yet fall further,” he said. “Their wait-and-see approach favours flexibility over long-term commitments — for now.” China-North America spot rates of $4.86/kg last week fell below $5/kg for the first time in almost two months, dropping 5% compared with the previous week, according to the Baltic Air Index (BAI). Spot rates from China to North Europe were at $4.23 per kilogram in the last week of June, down slightly compared with the previous week but remaining above the $4 mark since March. Dimerco Express Group put the total China-US cargo volumes decline at 60% in May and June, with e-commerce bookings down about 50%. The Taiwan-based forwarder noted in a July market outlook that there was no sign of recovery in e-commerce volume and scheduled freighter flights continue to be cancelled. <h3>Positive growth areas </h3>However, there are bright spots in the gloomy outlook. Demand out of Southeast Asia — particularly from Thailand and Vietnam — is rising ahead of the upcoming tariff deadline next week. President Donald Trump’s 90-day pause on so-called “reciprocal” tariffs ends at midnight on July 8. “Intra-Asia traffic is holding strong, especially on routes linking China with Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore,” said Kathy Liu, vice president of global sales and marketing at Dimerco Express Group. “Capacity on these lanes is tight, and we’re seeing higher rates compared to the same period last year,” she added. The summer season will also bring increased demand for perishable exports on the trans-Pacific, both out of Asia and on the backhaul routes, good news for airlines facing such dramatic cuts in e-commerce volume. “Air imports from Asia are expected to rebound and grow during the summer months, driven by the early peak shipping season. Shippers are ramping up volumes, particularly toward Asia, with a growing shift from ocean to air,” the forwarder said. Air freight space on the westbound routes will likely remain tight, with possible booking delays or rollovers, and Dimerco advised pre-booking at least five to seven days in advance for high-volume or time-sensitive cargo. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The air cargo industry is flying into a bumpy second half, with persistent uncertainty over US tariff levels and the bleeding of freight due to new US “de minimis” curbs on low-value Chinese goods. It is impacting every aspect of the industry, from disrupting cargo flows to capacity deployment to demand, and clouding the outlook for the year. “We just simply cannot predict how that is going to play out,” Brie Carere, FedEx’s chief customer officer, told investors on the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call on June 24. After volumes from the US to China “deteriorated sharply,” in May, FedEx said it couldn’t provide a full-year forecast due to the “uncertain global demand,” environment. Global air cargo spot rates declined for a second consecutive month in June, down 4% year over year as the supply of capacity overtook demand for the first time in 19 months, according to rate benchmarking platform Xeneta. “We are starting to see the longer-term effects of all this uncertainty because a lot of damage has been done,” Niall van de Wouw, chief air freight officer at Xeneta, said in a market update Friday. “This might be the new reality for the foreseeable future as the industry is facing a much more challenging second half of the year. The air cargo market is losing altitude amid so much uncertainty,” he added. After eliminating the duty-free exemption for low-value shipments from China valued at under $800 on May 2, the US on May 14 reduced the de minimis tariff on the low-value imports from 120% to 54%. Items sent via post from China to the US will be charged a flat fee of $100, regardless of value. In 2024, e-commerce shipments accounted for about 50% of China-to-US air freight volume, filling dozens of freighters every day. Data from air cargo analyst Rotate showed that in the days following May 2, 40 freighters per day were pulled out of the trans-Pacific. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) noted in an industry outlook this week that tariffs and the removal of the de minimis exemption have disrupted established air cargo flows, forcing carriers to adjust or redeploy capacity on certain routes. “Uncertainty remains high, which impedes planning and optimization along the supply chain, and further loss of momentum in the coming months cannot be ruled out,” IATA warned. Refocusing e-commerce efforts Tim van Leeuwen, head of consulting at Rotate, said China-US air cargo demand in May fell 28% year over year, driven by declines in both general air cargo and e-commerce, with early June figures showing the trend has continued. “Direct China-US freighter capacity in June was down 11% compared to March, wiping out capacity growth we have seen over the past year and returning to similar capacity as June 2024,” he told the Journal of Commerce. “The e-commerce platforms seem to be refocusing their efforts, with significant growth of exports to the European Union and Asia-Pacific replacing lost demand to the US,” he noted. Faced with such an uncertain and volatile trade lane, Van de Wouw said forwarders were taking a cautious approach to the market. “Around 46% of their procured volumes remain in the spot market, reflecting a belief that rates may yet fall further,” he said. “Their wait-and-see approach favours flexibility over long-term commitments — for now.” China-North America spot rates of $4.86/kg last week fell below $5/kg for the first time in almost two months, dropping 5% compared with the previous week, according to the Baltic Air Index (BAI). Spot rates from China to North Europe were at $4.23 per kilogram in the last week of June, down slightly compared with the previous week but remaining above the $4 mark since March. Dimerco Express Group put the total China-US cargo volumes decline at 60% in May and June, with e-commerce bookings down about 50%. The Taiwan-based forwarder noted in a July market outlook that there was no sign of recovery in e-commerce volume and scheduled freighter flights continue to be cancelled. Positive growth areas However, there are bright spots in the gloomy outlook. Demand out of Southeast Asia — particularly from Thailand and Vietnam — is rising ahead of the upcoming tariff deadline next week. President Donald Trump’s 90-day pause on so-called “reciprocal” tariffs ends at midnight on July 8. “Intra-Asia traffic is holding strong, especially on routes linking China with Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore,” said Kathy Liu, vice president of global sales and marketing at Dimerco Express Group. “Capacity on these lanes is tight, and we’re seeing higher rates compared to the same period last year,” she added. The summer season will also bring increased demand for perishable exports on the trans-Pacific, both out of Asia and on the backhaul routes, good news for airlines facing such dramatic cuts in e-commerce volume. “Air imports from Asia are expected to rebound and grow during the summer months, driven by the early peak shipping season. Shippers are ramping up volumes, particularly toward Asia, with a growing shift from ocean to air,” the forwarder said. Air freight space on the westbound routes will likely remain tight, with possible booking delays or rollovers, and Dimerco advised pre-booking at least five to seven days in advance for high-volume or time-sensitive cargo. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Air Cargo Forwarder News

Air Cargo Carriers News

Air Cargo

Trans-Pacific air cargo market flying into turbulent second half

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Longer transits around southern Africa, restructured alliance networks and bottlenecks in Asia continue to cause ships to arrive outside their scheduled European arrival windows.</div>

Longer transits around southern Africa, restructured alliance networks and bottlenecks in Asia continue to cause ships to arrive outside their scheduled European arrival windows.

<div class="phx-topic">Container lines are making another round of changes to services to mitigate persistent congestion at European ports, avoiding maxed out terminals and overwhelmed inland rail and waterway networks. Longer transits around southern Africa, restructured alliance networks and bottlenecks in Asia are causing ships to arrive outside their scheduled European arrival windows. Strong peak season demand is piling on the pressure with the wave of incoming volume adding to congestion and forcing carriers to divert some services away from the congested import gateways. Mediterranean Shipping Co. has adjusted its Asia-Europe services to mitigate the delays, omitting some ports and adding others, while congestion at London Gateway is seeing CMA CGM’s Safran service from Europe to the East Coast of South America calling at Southampton instead. Maersk was scheduled to return its north-south NeoSamba service to London Gateway after moving it to Southampton in early June because of congestion but has decided to maintain the Southampton call. “The current diversion from London Gateway to Southampton will be extended by an additional four weeks, to maintain high service reliability during peak demand periods and to avoid port congestion,” Maersk told customers in its July market update this week. HMM is reporting yard density of 80% and above at several terminals in Rotterdam, Hamburg and Antwerp with full berths and vessels arriving late. Data this week from port visibility provider Portcast shows 11 vessels waiting to berth at Antwerp-Bruges, nine at Hamburg and seven at Rotterdam. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="5eb289f4-4310-4545-b840-86a556bf3fac"></dynamic-object></div>Kuehne + Nagel’s visibility tool SeaExplorer noted that port congestion in North European ports of Antwerp, Hamburg and Bremerhaven was extending transit times, with delays in berthing, operational disruptions and high yard utilization over 92% identified as key factors. Disruption is also extending into inland transport networks. Ocean Network Express is warning of long wait times for trucks and barges in North European hubs, with some terminals suspending the redelivery of empties, while Maersk warned customers of rail disruption in Hamburg from July 2 until July 9. “During this period, no rail transport to or from the Port of Hamburg will be operationally feasible, and customers are kindly asked to change their ocean bookings from Hamburg to Bremerhaven where possible,” the carrier noted. <h3>Low water limits barge loading </h3>Intermodal transport operator Contargo said average waiting times for the handling of its barges this week were 78 hours in Antwerp and 64 hours in Rotterdam. Contargo also warned that low water levels on the Rhine were limiting barge loading and generating low water surcharges. In the north of Italy, major infrastructure works are scheduled on the national railway line serving ports of Genoa, La Spezia and Vado Ligure. At the Port of Genoa, no rail services will be available between Aug. 2 and 31, with Maersk not accepting rail cargo from July 21. In the first four months of 2025, total Asia-Europe volume was up 9% year over year at 6.13 million TEUs, with the Asia-North Europe segment rising 6.6% to 3.72 million TEUs and Asia-Mediterranean surging 12.14% to 2.4 million TEUs, according to the latest volume data from Container Trades Statistics. While Asia-Europe volume data for June is not yet available, carriers and forwarders are reporting robust cargo bookings through the summer months. At the same time, carriers have deployed a record amount of capacity on the North Europe corridor in July while also increasing blank sailings on the trade lane. Freight-all-kinds (FAK) rate increases for Asia-North Europe were imposed from July 1 by MSC ($4,300 per FEU) and CMA CGM ($4,100/FEU), pushing rates on the trade lane up almost $500 to $3,350/FEU, according to rate benchmarking platform Xeneta. Data from visibility provider eeSea shows carriers on Asia-North Europe will deploy a record 1.15 million TEUs in capacity in July and blank 85,727 TEUs. In August, the deployed capacity will drop to just over 1 million TEUs while 104,790 TEUs will be cut from the trade. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="6a5146cf-79d1-41fa-85fb-c1916fc625ac"></dynamic-object></div>Carriers are taking the opposite approach on Asia-Mediterranean, where a record 882,845 TEUs of capacity will be deployed in August, up 50,000 TEUs compared with July, eeSea data shows. Blank sailings will decline from almost 80,000 TEUs in July to 20,000 TEUs in August. “Strong demand from Asia to North Europe and the Mediterranean is forecast for the rest of July in line with seasonality ... we encourage customers to book as early as possible in order to secure space,” advised Maersk in its July update. Forwarders are giving their customers the same advice. “To avoid delays caused by congestion, blank sailings, and container shortages, it is recommended to book space at least one to two weeks in advance for Asia and EU ports,” Taiwan-based forwarder Dimerco Express Group noted in a July market report. Dimerco said some China origins were beginning to apply overweight surcharges to Asia-Europe containers as carriers prioritized light cargo and high-cube containers to improve ship utilization. “Early booking is strongly recommended for heavy cargo in small containers,” the forwarder warned. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Container lines are making another round of changes to services to mitigate persistent congestion at European ports, avoiding maxed out terminals and overwhelmed inland rail and waterway networks. Longer transits around southern Africa, restructured alliance networks and bottlenecks in Asia are causing ships to arrive outside their scheduled European arrival windows. Strong peak season demand is piling on the pressure with the wave of incoming volume adding to congestion and forcing carriers to divert some services away from the congested import gateways. Mediterranean Shipping Co. has adjusted its Asia-Europe services to mitigate the delays, omitting some ports and adding others, while congestion at London Gateway is seeing CMA CGM’s Safran service from Europe to the East Coast of South America calling at Southampton instead. Maersk was scheduled to return its north-south NeoSamba service to London Gateway after moving it to Southampton in early June because of congestion but has decided to maintain the Southampton call. “The current diversion from London Gateway to Southampton will be extended by an additional four weeks, to maintain high service reliability during peak demand periods and to avoid port congestion,” Maersk told customers in its July market update this week. HMM is reporting yard density of 80% and above at several terminals in Rotterdam, Hamburg and Antwerp with full berths and vessels arriving late. Data this week from port visibility provider Portcast shows 11 vessels waiting to berth at Antwerp-Bruges, nine at Hamburg and seven at Rotterdam. Kuehne + Nagel’s visibility tool SeaExplorer noted that port congestion in North European ports of Antwerp, Hamburg and Bremerhaven was extending transit times, with delays in berthing, operational disruptions and high yard utilization over 92% identified as key factors. Disruption is also extending into inland transport networks. Ocean Network Express is warning of long wait times for trucks and barges in North European hubs, with some terminals suspending the redelivery of empties, while Maersk warned customers of rail disruption in Hamburg from July 2 until July 9. “During this period, no rail transport to or from the Port of Hamburg will be operationally feasible, and customers are kindly asked to change their ocean bookings from Hamburg to Bremerhaven where possible,” the carrier noted. Low water limits barge loading Intermodal transport operator Contargo said average waiting times for the handling of its barges this week were 78 hours in Antwerp and 64 hours in Rotterdam. Contargo also warned that low water levels on the Rhine were limiting barge loading and generating low water surcharges. In the north of Italy, major infrastructure works are scheduled on the national railway line serving ports of Genoa, La Spezia and Vado Ligure. At the Port of Genoa, no rail services will be available between Aug. 2 and 31, with Maersk not accepting rail cargo from July 21. In the first four months of 2025, total Asia-Europe volume was up 9% year over year at 6.13 million TEUs, with the Asia-North Europe segment rising 6.6% to 3.72 million TEUs and Asia-Mediterranean surging 12.14% to 2.4 million TEUs, according to the latest volume data from Container Trades Statistics. While Asia-Europe volume data for June is not yet available, carriers and forwarders are reporting robust cargo bookings through the summer months. At the same time, carriers have deployed a record amount of capacity on the North Europe corridor in July while also increasing blank sailings on the trade lane. Freight-all-kinds (FAK) rate increases for Asia-North Europe were imposed from July 1 by MSC ($4,300 per FEU) and CMA CGM ($4,100/FEU), pushing rates on the trade lane up almost $500 to $3,350/FEU, according to rate benchmarking platform Xeneta. Data from visibility provider eeSea shows carriers on Asia-North Europe will deploy a record 1.15 million TEUs in capacity in July and blank 85,727 TEUs. In August, the deployed capacity will drop to just over 1 million TEUs while 104,790 TEUs will be cut from the trade. Carriers are taking the opposite approach on Asia-Mediterranean, where a record 882,845 TEUs of capacity will be deployed in August, up 50,000 TEUs compared with July, eeSea data shows. Blank sailings will decline from almost 80,000 TEUs in July to 20,000 TEUs in August. “Strong demand from Asia to North Europe and the Mediterranean is forecast for the rest of July in line with seasonality ... we encourage customers to book as early as possible in order to secure space,” advised Maersk in its July update. Forwarders are giving their customers the same advice. “To avoid delays caused by congestion, blank sailings, and container shortages, it is recommended to book space at least one to two weeks in advance for Asia and EU ports,” Taiwan-based forwarder Dimerco Express Group noted in a July market report. Dimerco said some China origins were beginning to apply overweight surcharges to Asia-Europe containers as carriers prioritized light cargo and high-cube containers to improve ship utilization. “Early booking is strongly recommended for heavy cargo in small containers,” the forwarder warned. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Ocean carriers adjust calls as congestion chokes European hubs

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The federal watchdog agency said the US Maritime Administration has financial levers to help the domestic shipbuilding industry but doesn’t know their effectiveness.</div>

The federal watchdog agency said the US Maritime Administration has financial levers to help the domestic shipbuilding industry but doesn’t know their effectiveness.

<div class="phx-topic">US shipbuilding capacity is hampered by underutilized and poorly funded government incentives, a federal watchdog agency said as it urged the US Maritime Administration (Marad) to take a more active role in programs aimed at reviving the domestic maritime industry. After a year-and-half study on the US commercial maritime industry, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) said that US shipbuilders face challenges in reviving their industry due to competition from other modes of transportation, fewer economies of scale than overseas shipbuilders and aging infrastructure. President Donald Trump has promoted domestic shipbuilding during his second term, and his administration is on track to tax Chinese tonnage starting Oct. 14. The GAO, often referred to as the congressional watchdog, suggested encouraging Jones Act vessels to move more goods between US ports, providing US shipbuilders with larger and more consistent order books, and partnering with foreign shipbuilders to modernize US yards. While government financial programs aim to offset some of the costs of building ships in the US, “the programs’ administration does not follow leading practices for assessing program performance,” the GAO said, adding that Marad needs to look more closely at its incentives. “The Maritime Administration cannot determine to what extent the programs are effective in growing the US maritime fleet because it has not established measurable goals for, or assessed the performance of, these programs,” the report said. The GAO report, funded through a 2023 defense spending bill, arrives after <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/trump-signs-order-for-us-shipbuilding-but-stays-mute-on-port-fees-5980539">President Trump’s April executive order</a> aimed at restoring US shipbuilding through steps such as developing a maritime action plan, establishing a trust fund for the US maritime industry, and collecting harbor maintenance fees on US imports that move through Canada and Mexico first. That effort will also be funded through <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/scaled-back-ustr-port-tariff-to-hit-chinese-carriers-hardest-5987549">new tariffs to be collected starting in October</a> on Chinese-operated or -built ships that enter US ports. <h3>Programs under scrutiny </h3>For its part, Marad administers four programs aimed at domestic shipbuilding, but their effectiveness remains unclear, the report said. For example, the Federal Ship Financing Program, which offers loan guarantees for US-built ships, only executed guarantees for two vessel owners totaling $400 million over the last five years, the report said. While the guarantee is “a low-volume program, but has a high impact,” Marad has become more risk averse about which loans it will guarantee, the GAO report said, disincentivizing some companies from using the program. Another incentive, the Small Shipyard Grant Program, allows shipyards to buy new equipment. Congress appropriated about $20 million to the program annually since 2018, but it only received $8.75 million in funding for the 2024 fiscal year. However, the GAO found that shipbuilding and repair companies have requested about $50 million in grant funding. While the grantees said they benefitted from the program, the GAO said the program’s overall effectiveness is unclear because Marad “does not have measurable goals and does not assess the performance of the program.” Marad is supposed to collect data on how the grant improved shipyard operations, but the GAO found the data reporting is spotty. “Maritime Administration officials follow a multistep process for awarding grants to shipyards that apply to the Small Shipyard Grant program, but they do not document their decision rationale for why they award or do not award grants,” the GAO said, as it urged Marad to delve more deeply into its incentive programs. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

US shipbuilding capacity is hampered by underutilized and poorly funded government incentives, a federal watchdog agency said as it urged the US Maritime Administration (Marad) to take a more active role in programs aimed at reviving the domestic maritime industry. After a year-and-half study on the US commercial maritime industry, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) said that US shipbuilders face challenges in reviving their industry due to competition from other modes of transportation, fewer economies of scale than overseas shipbuilders and aging infrastructure. President Donald Trump has promoted domestic shipbuilding during his second term, and his administration is on track to tax Chinese tonnage starting Oct. 14. The GAO, often referred to as the congressional watchdog, suggested encouraging Jones Act vessels to move more goods between US ports, providing US shipbuilders with larger and more consistent order books, and partnering with foreign shipbuilders to modernize US yards. While government financial programs aim to offset some of the costs of building ships in the US, “the programs’ administration does not follow leading practices for assessing program performance,” the GAO said, adding that Marad needs to look more closely at its incentives. “The Maritime Administration cannot determine to what extent the programs are effective in growing the US maritime fleet because it has not established measurable goals for, or assessed the performance of, these programs,” the report said. The GAO report, funded through a 2023 defense spending bill, arrives after President Trump’s April executive order aimed at restoring US shipbuilding through steps such as developing a maritime action plan, establishing a trust fund for the US maritime industry, and collecting harbor maintenance fees on US imports that move through Canada and Mexico first. That effort will also be funded through new tariffs to be collected starting in October on Chinese-operated or -built ships that enter US ports. Programs under scrutiny For its part, Marad administers four programs aimed at domestic shipbuilding, but their effectiveness remains unclear, the report said. For example, the Federal Ship Financing Program, which offers loan guarantees for US-built ships, only executed guarantees for two vessel owners totaling $400 million over the last five years, the report said. While the guarantee is “a low-volume program, but has a high impact,” Marad has become more risk averse about which loans it will guarantee, the GAO report said, disincentivizing some companies from using the program. Another incentive, the Small Shipyard Grant Program, allows shipyards to buy new equipment. Congress appropriated about $20 million to the program annually since 2018, but it only received $8.75 million in funding for the 2024 fiscal year. However, the GAO found that shipbuilding and repair companies have requested about $50 million in grant funding. While the grantees said they benefitted from the program, the GAO said the program’s overall effectiveness is unclear because Marad “does not have measurable goals and does not assess the performance of the program.” Marad is supposed to collect data on how the grant improved shipyard operations, but the GAO found the data reporting is spotty. “Maritime Administration officials follow a multistep process for awarding grants to shipyards that apply to the Small Shipyard Grant program, but they do not document their decision rationale for why they award or do not award grants,” the GAO said, as it urged Marad to delve more deeply into its incentive programs. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

US shipbuilding incentives need more oversight: GAO

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The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

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Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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Filling the Supply Chain Education Gap with LTL Education Courses

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Quarterly Intelligence

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Loup Logistics provides direct access to nearly 80,000 rail-owned containers across North America, significantly expanding UP’s transloading options.</div>

Loup Logistics provides direct access to nearly 80,000 rail-owned containers across North America, significantly expanding UP’s transloading options.

<div class="phx-topic">A subsidiary of Union Pacific Railroad has launched a new transloading service that will transfer imports into rail-owned 53-foot containers for inland hauls, presenting new competition to rival BNSF Railway. Loup Logistics said Tuesday the “port-to-door” service will be available at any US port. Union Pacific currently relies on partners such as Hub Group, Schneider National and STG Logistics, among others, for transloaded freight. But Loup provides direct access to nearly 80,000 rail-owned containers across North America, significantly expanding UP’s transloading options. Formed in 2017, Loup works with non-asset intermodal marketing companies (IMCs) to provide a door-to-door domestic intermodal product. Loup’s service removes the burden of securing drayage and chassis, making it an appealing option for IMCs seeking turnkey solutions for their shippers. Loup will partner with the non-asset IMCs to offer the port-to-door product to its existing domestic shippers. Logistics powerhouse J.B. Hunt Transport Services, a partner of BNSF, has aggressively expanded its <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/tpm23-intermodal-providers-banking-on-transloading-surge-5217461">transloading operations</a> in Los Angeles and the Seattle-Tacoma area in recent years. J.B. Hunt will also be a key partner in transloading through <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/tpm25-bnsf-believes-barstow-hub-can-improve-service-to-smaller-markets-5955620">BNSF’s Barstow International Gateway</a>, which is due to open in 2027. Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

A subsidiary of Union Pacific Railroad has launched a new transloading service that will transfer imports into rail-owned 53-foot containers for inland hauls, presenting new competition to rival BNSF Railway. Loup Logistics said Tuesday the “port-to-door” service will be available at any US port. Union Pacific currently relies on partners such as Hub Group, Schneider National and STG Logistics, among others, for transloaded freight. But Loup provides direct access to nearly 80,000 rail-owned containers across North America, significantly expanding UP’s transloading options. Formed in 2017, Loup works with non-asset intermodal marketing companies (IMCs) to provide a door-to-door domestic intermodal product. Loup’s service removes the burden of securing drayage and chassis, making it an appealing option for IMCs seeking turnkey solutions for their shippers. Loup will partner with the non-asset IMCs to offer the port-to-door product to its existing domestic shippers. Logistics powerhouse J.B. Hunt Transport Services, a partner of BNSF, has aggressively expanded its transloading operations in Los Angeles and the Seattle-Tacoma area in recent years. J.B. Hunt will also be a key partner in transloading through BNSF’s Barstow International Gateway , which is due to open in 2027. Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Union Pacific subsidiary jumps into transloading with ‘port-to-door' service

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The fresh capacity carriers rushed into the US’ busiest trade lane in April and May is no longer needed, sending rates on a downward spiral and forcing carriers to shelve proposed price hikes.</div>

The fresh capacity carriers rushed into the US’ busiest trade lane in April and May is no longer needed, sending rates on a downward spiral and forcing carriers to shelve proposed price hikes.

<div class="phx-topic">Ocean carriers have failed to implement a planned general rate increase (GRI) in the eastbound trans-Pacific this week, with vessel capacity on the route exceeding forward demand that has been in steady decline for weeks. And in yet another sign that the peak shipping season will be muted, carriers have also dropped plans to impose a peak season surcharge (PSS) on fixed-rate contracts to the US West Coast. That comes as spot rates paid by importers and freight-all-kinds (FAK) rates charged to forwarders continue to sink. “They went up quickly. It looks like they’re going down just as quickly,” Kurt McElroy, executive vice president at the forwarder Kerry Apex, said. “There’s not enough demand.” Carriers have announced PSSs of $1,000 per FEU to the US East Coast from July 1–14, according to carrier rate announcements shared with the Journal of Commerce, who spoke to eight forwarders and two carriers for this story. At least one container line is rolling PSSs into quarterly rates, but at approximately half the amount, two shippers said on the condition of anonymity. Rate activity in the largest US trade lane <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/importers-try-to-push-cargo-to-contract-rates-as-trans-pac-spot-market-surges-5244311">contrasts sharply with last year</a>, when spot rates surged as high as $10,000 per FEU to the East Coast and $8,000 to the West Coast in early July, while carriers were also able to impose a series of PSSs throughout the summer and fall. This year, uncertainty about the Trump administration’s trade policy resulted in massive frontloading of fall and holiday merchandise as US retailers rushed to bring in goods during a 90-day reprieve from so-called reciprocal tariffs. The pause on tariffs from most countries expires July 9, while a similar reprieve on China-sourced goods ends Aug. 14. That frontloading likely means weaker imports during the traditional August through October peak shipping season, said Christian Sur, executive vice president for ocean freight contract logistics at the forwarder Unique Logistics International. Last year, July to October volume was strong, but with all of the frontloading, especially from China, no one expects the volume to be as strong this year,” Sur said. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="e8c13a3e-9f5a-412f-8741-adbf5e1a7779"></dynamic-object></div>As a result, spot rates have been sinking rapidly over the past month. Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, pegged spot rates from North Asia to the West Coast at $2,200 per FEU as of July 1, down 15% on the week. Rates to the East Coast were $4,300 per FEU, 12% lower. Rate benchmarking platform Xeneta had the West Coast spot rate at $2,800 per FEU as of June 26, with the East Coast at $5,473 per FEU. Spot rates listed on some rate indexes can lag the rates importers and forwarders are actually paying by a week or longer. This week, most imports from Asia are moving at $4,400 to $4,500 per FEU to the East Coast and $2,400 to $2,500 per FEU to the West Coast, McElroy said. Retailers and forwarders who shop around can secure even lower prices from some carriers, said Jon Monroe, who serves as an adviser to forwarders. Some carriers are quoting sub-$4,000-per-FEU spot/FAK rates to the East Coast and sub-$2,000 per FEU to the West Coast, Monroe said. <h3>Tariffs a fading concern? </h3>Carriers ending PSSs on fixed-rate accounts for both importers and forwarders to the West Coast and limiting their PSSs to the East Coast to two weeks from July 1–14 indicate that going forward, no one is making bookings based on tariff deadlines, Sur said. “Tariffs are quickly becoming a non-issue,” he said. Ample vessel capacity for the coming months has also made shipper concerns about securing space this summer less of an issue than it was in past years. Data from maritime visibility provider eeSea shows that the recent addition of vessel capacity by trans-Pacific carriers has brought total capacity to 1.57 million TEUs in July, the highest for any month since 2021. Some 8.6% of that capacity is poised to be blanked. In August, the total capacity is scheduled to slip to 1.48 million TEUs, with 7.7% of the capacity scheduled to be blanked. Even with the blank sailings, the total capacity offered in the eastbound trans-Pacific will be almost 20% higher in July than July 2024 and 10.6% higher in August year over year, according to eeSea. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="c3135e8b-9bef-4f08-a278-5c853b855a74"></dynamic-object></div>Carriers rushed fresh capacity into the eastbound trans-Pacific in April and May when the Trump administration announced the pauses on higher tariffs. But once that surge in bookings was over, overcapacity took hold, sending rates on a downward spiral. A carrier source said the eastbound trans-Pac may witness additional blank sailings in the coming months. “Volumes are starting to go down and rates are falling because a lot of capacity was brought on,” the source said. “If management starts seeing the rates decline very quickly, they might remove the capacity.” <h3>August–October volumes difficult to forecast </h3>Projecting import volumes for the traditional August through October peak shipping season remains a hazy task, forwarders and carriers say. “This is a time when it is hard to predict where we are headed,” said Robert Khachatryan, CEO of the forwarder Freight Right Global Logistics. Still, Khachatryan said he does not detect huge demand building among importers. “The market is still soft and is likely to remain so at least through July,” a second carrier executive said. “But we can’t say beyond that. We’re in a wait-and-see mode.” A logistics manager for a large retailer told the Journal of Commerce she is still waiting on the company’s second-half forecast, but July and August look softer than last year. The source said July will be the retailer’s peak season. The retailer is still paying a $500 PSS into the West Coast, but that is down from $2,000 per FEU originally. Despite the frontloading by most retailers, there is still fall and holiday merchandise scheduled to be shipped. While import volumes will be down from last fall’s double-digit year-over-year increases, they won’t fall off the cliff. Ben Coleman, president of the forwarder Teampower Logistics, said there are clients with seasonal merchandise still scheduled to ship and others who will seek to rebuild their inventories. Another forwarder said the several months of frontloading did not rob the eastbound trans-Pacific of all its cargo this fall. “There are still retail goods that have to be moved,” the source said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>.Contact Laura Robb at <a href="mailto:laura.robb@spglobal.com">laura.robb@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Ocean carriers have failed to implement a planned general rate increase (GRI) in the eastbound trans-Pacific this week, with vessel capacity on the route exceeding forward demand that has been in steady decline for weeks. And in yet another sign that the peak shipping season will be muted, carriers have also dropped plans to impose a peak season surcharge (PSS) on fixed-rate contracts to the US West Coast. That comes as spot rates paid by importers and freight-all-kinds (FAK) rates charged to forwarders continue to sink. “They went up quickly. It looks like they’re going down just as quickly,” Kurt McElroy, executive vice president at the forwarder Kerry Apex, said. “There’s not enough demand.” Carriers have announced PSSs of $1,000 per FEU to the US East Coast from July 1–14, according to carrier rate announcements shared with the Journal of Commerce, who spoke to eight forwarders and two carriers for this story. At least one container line is rolling PSSs into quarterly rates, but at approximately half the amount, two shippers said on the condition of anonymity. Rate activity in the largest US trade lane contrasts sharply with last year , when spot rates surged as high as $10,000 per FEU to the East Coast and $8,000 to the West Coast in early July, while carriers were also able to impose a series of PSSs throughout the summer and fall. This year, uncertainty about the Trump administration’s trade policy resulted in massive frontloading of fall and holiday merchandise as US retailers rushed to bring in goods during a 90-day reprieve from so-called reciprocal tariffs. The pause on tariffs from most countries expires July 9, while a similar reprieve on China-sourced goods ends Aug. 14. That frontloading likely means weaker imports during the traditional August through October peak shipping season, said Christian Sur, executive vice president for ocean freight contract logistics at the forwarder Unique Logistics International. Last year, July to October volume was strong, but with all of the frontloading, especially from China, no one expects the volume to be as strong this year,” Sur said. As a result, spot rates have been sinking rapidly over the past month. Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, pegged spot rates from North Asia to the West Coast at $2,200 per FEU as of July 1, down 15% on the week. Rates to the East Coast were $4,300 per FEU, 12% lower. Rate benchmarking platform Xeneta had the West Coast spot rate at $2,800 per FEU as of June 26, with the East Coast at $5,473 per FEU. Spot rates listed on some rate indexes can lag the rates importers and forwarders are actually paying by a week or longer. This week, most imports from Asia are moving at $4,400 to $4,500 per FEU to the East Coast and $2,400 to $2,500 per FEU to the West Coast, McElroy said. Retailers and forwarders who shop around can secure even lower prices from some carriers, said Jon Monroe, who serves as an adviser to forwarders. Some carriers are quoting sub-$4,000-per-FEU spot/FAK rates to the East Coast and sub-$2,000 per FEU to the West Coast, Monroe said. Tariffs a fading concern? Carriers ending PSSs on fixed-rate accounts for both importers and forwarders to the West Coast and limiting their PSSs to the East Coast to two weeks from July 1–14 indicate that going forward, no one is making bookings based on tariff deadlines, Sur said. “Tariffs are quickly becoming a non-issue,” he said. Ample vessel capacity for the coming months has also made shipper concerns about securing space this summer less of an issue than it was in past years. Data from maritime visibility provider eeSea shows that the recent addition of vessel capacity by trans-Pacific carriers has brought total capacity to 1.57 million TEUs in July, the highest for any month since 2021. Some 8.6% of that capacity is poised to be blanked. In August, the total capacity is scheduled to slip to 1.48 million TEUs, with 7.7% of the capacity scheduled to be blanked. Even with the blank sailings, the total capacity offered in the eastbound trans-Pacific will be almost 20% higher in July than July 2024 and 10.6% higher in August year over year, according to eeSea. Carriers rushed fresh capacity into the eastbound trans-Pacific in April and May when the Trump administration announced the pauses on higher tariffs. But once that surge in bookings was over, overcapacity took hold, sending rates on a downward spiral. A carrier source said the eastbound trans-Pac may witness additional blank sailings in the coming months. “Volumes are starting to go down and rates are falling because a lot of capacity was brought on,” the source said. “If management starts seeing the rates decline very quickly, they might remove the capacity.” August–October volumes difficult to forecast Projecting import volumes for the traditional August through October peak shipping season remains a hazy task, forwarders and carriers say. “This is a time when it is hard to predict where we are headed,” said Robert Khachatryan, CEO of the forwarder Freight Right Global Logistics. Still, Khachatryan said he does not detect huge demand building among importers. “The market is still soft and is likely to remain so at least through July,” a second carrier executive said. “But we can’t say beyond that. We’re in a wait-and-see mode.” A logistics manager for a large retailer told the Journal of Commerce she is still waiting on the company’s second-half forecast, but July and August look softer than last year. The source said July will be the retailer’s peak season. The retailer is still paying a $500 PSS into the West Coast, but that is down from $2,000 per FEU originally. Despite the frontloading by most retailers, there is still fall and holiday merchandise scheduled to be shipped. While import volumes will be down from last fall’s double-digit year-over-year increases, they won’t fall off the cliff. Ben Coleman, president of the forwarder Teampower Logistics, said there are clients with seasonal merchandise still scheduled to ship and others who will seek to rebuild their inventories. Another forwarder said the several months of frontloading did not rob the eastbound trans-Pacific of all its cargo this fall. “There are still retail goods that have to be moved,” the source said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .Contact Laura Robb at laura.robb@spglobal.com .

Forwarding

Excess capacity sinks planned July 1 rate increase in eastbound trans-Pacific

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The deployment of 24,000-TEU ships on its Africa Express service allows the carrier to better leverage billions of dollars invested in West Africa in recent years, reducing exposure to congested North European ports. </div>

The deployment of 24,000-TEU ships on its Africa Express service allows the carrier to better leverage billions of dollars invested in West Africa in recent years, reducing exposure to congested North European ports.

<div class="phx-topic">Mediterranean Shipping Co.’s recent deployment of the largest vessels in its fleet to West African ports shows how the container line is capitalizing on the regional market and reducing its reliance on European hubs for transshipping. The deployment in April of 24,000-TEU ships on its Africa Express service allows MSC to better leverage billions of dollars invested in West Africa in recent years, reducing exposure to congested North European ports and tapping growing regional demand. West Africa’s GDP is forecast to expand 4.3% in 2025–26, according to the African Development Bank. The service connecting West Africa with north and southeast Asia calls Tema, Ghana and its longstanding hub in Lomé, Togo. Container volumes at Lomé last year rose 5% year over year to 2 million TEUs, according to an <a href="https://www.togofirst.com/en/logistics/2404-16204-lome-port-records-modest-growth-in-2024-fueled-by-strong-transshipment?utm_source=chatgpt.com">Invest in Togo</a> report. MSC’s European hub-and-spoke network relies on Antwerp, Gioia Tauro, Rotterdam and Valencia, yet its $6.1 billion acquisition of Bolloré Africa Logistics (renamed Africa Global Logistics [AGL]) in 2022 opened new possibilities for the carrier. At MSC’s emerging hub in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, where a second terminal operated by AGL opened in 2022, volumes rocketed 29% last year to 1.6 million TEUs, the <a href="https://www.ecofinagency.com/finance/2702-46447-port-of-abidjan-handles-1-6-million-teus-in-2024-almost-double-2022?utm_source=chatgpt.com">Ecofin Agency</a> said. The new facility expanded Abidjan’s container capacity to 2.5 million TEUs. MSC was not available for comment. <h3>Creating new hubs ‘makes sense’ </h3>The growth in West Africa’s transshipment volumes is more than just a result of major carriers routing ships around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid Houthi rebel attacks in the Red Sea, analysts tell the Journal of Commerce. Transshipping through Lomé and Abidjan allows MSC to reduce exposure when port congestion hits Antwerp and Rotterdam, as has been the case since the start of 2025. Setting up hubs closer to Europe — but not in Europe — could allow carriers to reduce payments under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, which launched in 2024, said Jan Hoffmann, the World Bank’s global lead for maritime transport and ports. “The region used to be connected to the rest of the world via transshipment services in Antwerp or Rotterdam [but] now counts on numerous direct connections, with the largest vessels,” said Hoffmann. “Deploying ultra large container ships [ULCSs] on that route and establishing hubs in [the West Africa] region makes sense for a number of reasons.” In addition to reducing payments under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, those reasons include improvements to roads connecting West African ports. As the largest operator of container ship tonnage and free of a shipping alliance partner, MSC is well positioned to make bolder moves within its network, said Jeremy Masters, managing director of Shipping Masters and a Journal of Commerce contributor. Other container lines serve West Africa but have yet to significantly drive transshipment volumes, Masters said. For example, CMA CGM deploys 16,000-TEU ships on its West Africa loop connecting Pointe-Noire in the Republic of Congo to Qingdao, China. Ocean Network Express’ services to the region are more focused on loops serving West Africa than feeding a node connecting deep-sea services to short-sea services. West Africa ports are growing and modernizing. DP World is spending $1.2 billion to construct a greenfield facility at Ndayane in Senegal. When phase one is completed in 2027, <a href="https://www.dpworld.com/news/releases/dp-world-kicks-off-maritime-construction-at-new-12-billion-port-in-senegal/">the port’s 1.2 million TEU container capacity</a> will reduce pressure on the country’s other major port, Dakar. The ULCSs will likely be repatriated to the Suez Canal routing when maritime safety is restored to the Red Sea, Masters said. “But if Lomé has by that time proven [itself] through its local and regional feed of volume, and then if MSC looks at other deep-sea routes that connect through, then I think [the port] would have established itself in its own right,” he said. Still, such is the combined impact of the size of the global container ship order book and the amount of vessels likely to be freed up by the would-be shorter Suez routings that it can be argued that West Africa’s increasing attractiveness could be just the way to put all the extra tonnage to good use. Contact Peter Shaw-Smith at <a href="mailto:petershawsmith@gmail.com">petershawsmith@gmail.com</a>. </div>

Mediterranean Shipping Co.’s recent deployment of the largest vessels in its fleet to West African ports shows how the container line is capitalizing on the regional market and reducing its reliance on European hubs for transshipping. The deployment in April of 24,000-TEU ships on its Africa Express service allows MSC to better leverage billions of dollars invested in West Africa in recent years, reducing exposure to congested North European ports and tapping growing regional demand. West Africa’s GDP is forecast to expand 4.3% in 2025–26, according to the African Development Bank. The service connecting West Africa with north and southeast Asia calls Tema, Ghana and its longstanding hub in Lomé, Togo. Container volumes at Lomé last year rose 5% year over year to 2 million TEUs, according to an Invest in Togo report. MSC’s European hub-and-spoke network relies on Antwerp, Gioia Tauro, Rotterdam and Valencia, yet its $6.1 billion acquisition of Bolloré Africa Logistics (renamed Africa Global Logistics [AGL]) in 2022 opened new possibilities for the carrier. At MSC’s emerging hub in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, where a second terminal operated by AGL opened in 2022, volumes rocketed 29% last year to 1.6 million TEUs, the Ecofin Agency said. The new facility expanded Abidjan’s container capacity to 2.5 million TEUs. MSC was not available for comment. Creating new hubs ‘makes sense’ The growth in West Africa’s transshipment volumes is more than just a result of major carriers routing ships around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid Houthi rebel attacks in the Red Sea, analysts tell the Journal of Commerce. Transshipping through Lomé and Abidjan allows MSC to reduce exposure when port congestion hits Antwerp and Rotterdam, as has been the case since the start of 2025. Setting up hubs closer to Europe — but not in Europe — could allow carriers to reduce payments under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, which launched in 2024, said Jan Hoffmann, the World Bank’s global lead for maritime transport and ports. “The region used to be connected to the rest of the world via transshipment services in Antwerp or Rotterdam [but] now counts on numerous direct connections, with the largest vessels,” said Hoffmann. “Deploying ultra large container ships [ULCSs] on that route and establishing hubs in [the West Africa] region makes sense for a number of reasons.” In addition to reducing payments under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, those reasons include improvements to roads connecting West African ports. As the largest operator of container ship tonnage and free of a shipping alliance partner, MSC is well positioned to make bolder moves within its network, said Jeremy Masters, managing director of Shipping Masters and a Journal of Commerce contributor. Other container lines serve West Africa but have yet to significantly drive transshipment volumes, Masters said. For example, CMA CGM deploys 16,000-TEU ships on its West Africa loop connecting Pointe-Noire in the Republic of Congo to Qingdao, China. Ocean Network Express’ services to the region are more focused on loops serving West Africa than feeding a node connecting deep-sea services to short-sea services. West Africa ports are growing and modernizing. DP World is spending $1.2 billion to construct a greenfield facility at Ndayane in Senegal. When phase one is completed in 2027, the port’s 1.2 million TEU container capacity will reduce pressure on the country’s other major port, Dakar. The ULCSs will likely be repatriated to the Suez Canal routing when maritime safety is restored to the Red Sea, Masters said. “But if Lomé has by that time proven [itself] through its local and regional feed of volume, and then if MSC looks at other deep-sea routes that connect through, then I think [the port] would have established itself in its own right,” he said. Still, such is the combined impact of the size of the global container ship order book and the amount of vessels likely to be freed up by the would-be shorter Suez routings that it can be argued that West Africa’s increasing attractiveness could be just the way to put all the extra tonnage to good use. Contact Peter Shaw-Smith at petershawsmith@gmail.com .

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