<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Operating conditions could also turn expected losses in 2026 into profits despite little clarity over the timing of a widespread return to Red Sea transits, according to the consultancy.</div>

Operating conditions could also turn expected losses in 2026 into profits despite little clarity over the timing of a widespread return to Red Sea transits, according to the consultancy.

Feature image

<div class="phx-topic">Ocean carriers are expected to report better-than-expected full-year 2025 results over the next few weeks due to higher profit margins through the third quarter and slowing fleet growth, according to maritime consultancy Drewry. Although rates softened and volume slowed on the major east-west trade lanes through the fourth quarter, Drewry is also revising its prior loss-making forecast for 2026. The consultancy now expects the industry to turn a profit despite little clarity over the timing of a widespread return to Red Sea transits that would release 8% of global capacity back into an already oversupplied market. Simon Heaney, senior manager for container research at Drewry, said the container shipping sector’s earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) margins fell to 12.3% in the third quarter of 2025, well below the 34.5% margin recorded in third-quarter 2024 but still a significant rate-supported improvement on the 7.9% margin in the 2025 second quarter. “This was an unexpected change of direction as we had anticipated that margins would shrink further in 3Q 2025,” Heaney told the Journal of Commerce Tuesday.  The “better-than-expected results” has prompted Drewry to upgrade the financial year 2025 profit forecast from $20 billion to $32 billion and raise the outlook for 2026 from a $10 billion loss to a $1 billion profit, he noted. HSBC Global Investment Research highlighted the narrowing supply-demand gap in a market update that pointed to data showing container fleet growth slowing to 4% in 2026 from 7% in 2025, with demand growth this year slowing to 2.5% compared to 4% in 2025. The report said, “... we think the gap is manageable before worsening in 2027 when [vessel] deliveries surge to all-time highs.” “Demand is holding up despite US container imports declining in the past few months and the National Retail Federation expecting weakness until April, albeit milder than previous forecasts,” HSBC noted.  On the Asia-Europe trade, the latest data from Container Trades Statistics (CTS) shows a 15.5% year-over-year increase in volume in November, which HSBC said indicated <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/asia-europe-ocean-carriers-add-capacity-as-trade-enters-peak-shipping-period-6145059">a pre-Lunar New Year peak season rush</a>. Still no clarity over return to Red Sea A return of container shipping to the Red Sea hangs over the 2026 outlook, with the timing of such a return likely to have a material influence on carrier earnings. Analysts remain divided over when a widescale return will happen. Carriers have mostly avoided the Red Sea and Suez Canal since late 2023 when Houthi militants operating in Yemen began their attacks on commercial shipping to protest Israel’s move into Gaza. “We see no immediate resolution to the Red Sea disruptions, which alongside ongoing port congestion in Europe should keep capacity tight and prevent freight rates from capitulating,” HSBC said. J.P. Morgan had a more positive view, noting that a 20% increase in Suez transits in December compared to the previous month has created growing interest around shipping’s return to the far-quicker route. “We expect this to happen post-Lunar New Year on Feb. 17, and we see limited disruption risk of congestion in Europe materially impacting short-term rates should the timing coincide with the seasonal trough,” the investment bank noted. Peter Sand, chief analyst for rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, said it was “highly unlikely” carriers would present extensive guidance on a Red Sea return in their 2026 outlooks. He expected carriers to maintain Cape of Good Hope transits around southern Africa while planning for a gradual shift to the Suez route. Another Maersk vessel transits Suez Following the successful transit of the Maersk Sebarok through the Suez and Red Sea in December, the carrier sent the Maersk Denver through the waterway this week; both vessels are part of the MECL service linking India to the US East Coast. However, in a customer advisory Tuesday, Maersk was quick to reiterate its position that the safety of crew, vessels and cargo remained “of utmost importance,” noting the necessary safety measures were applied during the transit of the Maersk Denver.  “Customers with cargo on this vessel are being informed directly,” the carrier said. “Assuming that security thresholds continue to be met, we will continue our stepwise approach towards gradually resuming navigation along the east-west corridor via the Suez Canal and the Red Sea. There are no additional sailings to announce at this time.”  While the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas that was agreed to in October is holding, rapidly unfolding geopolitical events in the region are again raising red flags, according to Jack Kennedy, head of Middle East and North Africa country risk at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence. “If Israel gets involved in [new] strikes on Iran, there is a higher likelihood that the Houthi will resume some kind of direct attacks on Israel from Yemen, and that might extend to US shipping with acknowledgment that this increases risk from targeting issues,” Kennedy said. "If the regime in Tehran perceives a genuine existential risk, they will probably try to escalate across the region to create an intervention reassessment from the US,” he added.  S&amp;P Global is the parent company of the Journal of Commerce. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Ocean carriers are expected to report better-than-expected full-year 2025 results over the next few weeks due to higher profit margins through the third quarter and slowing fleet growth, according to maritime consultancy Drewry.  Although rates softened and volume slowed on the major east-west trade lanes through the fourth quarter, Drewry is also revising its prior loss-making forecast for 2026. The consultancy now expects the industry to turn a profit despite little clarity over the timing of a widespread return to Red Sea transits that would release 8% of global capacity back into an already oversupplied market.  Simon Heaney, senior manager for container research at Drewry, said the container shipping sector’s earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) margins fell to 12.3% in the third quarter of 2025, well below the 34.5% margin recorded in third-quarter 2024 but still a significant rate-supported improvement on the 7.9% margin in the 2025 second quarter.  “This was an unexpected change of direction as we had anticipated that margins would shrink further in 3Q 2025,” Heaney told the Journal of Commerce Tuesday.   The “better-than-expected results” has prompted Drewry to upgrade the financial year 2025 profit forecast from $20 billion to $32 billion and raise the outlook for 2026 from a $10 billion loss to a $1 billion profit, he noted.  HSBC Global Investment Research highlighted the narrowing supply-demand gap in a market update that pointed to data showing container fleet growth slowing to 4% in 2026 from 7% in 2025, with demand growth this year slowing to 2.5% compared to 4% in 2025.  The report said, “... we think the gap is manageable before worsening in 2027 when [vessel] deliveries surge to all-time highs.”  “Demand is holding up despite US container imports declining in the past few months and the National Retail Federation expecting weakness until April, albeit milder than previous forecasts,” HSBC noted.   On the Asia-Europe trade, the latest data from Container Trades Statistics (CTS) shows a 15.5% year-over-year increase in volume in November, which HSBC said indicated  a pre-Lunar New Year peak season rush .  Still no clarity over return to Red Sea  A return of container shipping to the Red Sea hangs over the 2026 outlook, with the timing of such a return likely to have a material influence on carrier earnings. Analysts remain divided over when a widescale return will happen. Carriers have mostly avoided the Red Sea and Suez Canal since late 2023 when Houthi militants operating in Yemen began their attacks on commercial shipping to protest Israel’s move into Gaza.  “We see no immediate resolution to the Red Sea disruptions, which alongside ongoing port congestion in Europe should keep capacity tight and prevent freight rates from capitulating,” HSBC said.  J.P. Morgan had a more positive view, noting that a 20% increase in Suez transits in December compared to the previous month has created growing interest around shipping’s return to the far-quicker route.  “We expect this to happen post-Lunar New Year on Feb. 17, and we see limited disruption risk of congestion in Europe materially impacting short-term rates should the timing coincide with the seasonal trough,” the investment bank noted.  Peter Sand, chief analyst for rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, said it was “highly unlikely” carriers would present extensive guidance on a Red Sea return in their 2026 outlooks. He expected carriers to maintain Cape of Good Hope transits around southern Africa while planning for a gradual shift to the Suez route.  Another Maersk vessel transits Suez  Following the successful transit of the Maersk Sebarok through the Suez and Red Sea in December, the carrier sent the Maersk Denver through the waterway this week; both vessels are part of the MECL service linking India to the US East Coast.  However, in a customer advisory Tuesday, Maersk was quick to reiterate its position that the safety of crew, vessels and cargo remained “of utmost importance,” noting the necessary safety measures were applied during the transit of the Maersk Denver.   “Customers with cargo on this vessel are being informed directly,” the carrier said. “Assuming that security thresholds continue to be met, we will continue our stepwise approach towards gradually resuming navigation along the east-west corridor via the Suez Canal and the Red Sea. There are no additional sailings to announce at this time.”   While the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas that was agreed to in October is holding, rapidly unfolding geopolitical events in the region are again raising red flags, according to Jack Kennedy, head of Middle East and North Africa country risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence.  “If Israel gets involved in [new] strikes on Iran, there is a higher likelihood that the Houthi will resume some kind of direct attacks on Israel from Yemen, and that might extend to US shipping with acknowledgment that this increases risk from targeting issues,” Kennedy said.  "If the regime in Tehran perceives a genuine existential risk, they will probably try to escalate across the region to create an intervention reassessment from the US,” he added.   S&P Global is the parent company of the Journal of Commerce.  Contact Greg Knowler at  greg.knowler@spglobal.com . 

Container lines

Asia-Europe

Maritime

‘Unexpected’ margin boost in Q3 2025 to lift ocean carriers’ full-year results – Drewry 

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Martin’s headquarters near the Los Angeles-Long Beach port complex is now integrated into SeaCube’s depot and transportation network, providing faster delivery to customers and improved regional coverage in the cold storage market.</div>

Martin’s headquarters near the Los Angeles-Long Beach port complex is now integrated into SeaCube’s depot and transportation network, providing faster delivery to customers and improved regional coverage in the cold storage market.

<div class="phx-topic">SeaCube Cold Solutions, a national investor in refrigerated equipment, has acquired Southern California-based Martin Container, a portable cold storage container company serving the West Coast. The move comes as SeaCube aims to create a better connected and responsive cold storage network for customers across the US. Financial terms were not disclosed. Launched in 2025, New Jersey-based SeaCube provides refrigeration solutions to grocery retailers; food distributors; logistics operators; and the agricultural, pharmaceutical, restaurant and festival industries. “This acquisition enhances both scale and regional strength,” James Armstrong, SeaCube’s senior vice president, said in a statement Friday. “Martin’s long-standing reputation and operational depth complement our growing national platform ...” Demand for portable cold storage continues to rise across the Southwest and Pacific Coast regions. Martin’s headquarters near the Los Angeles-Long Beach port complex is now integrated into SeaCube’s depot and transportation network, providing faster delivery to customers and improved regional coverage, according to the statement. Martin has a number of asset locations throughout California, Arizona and Nevada. “This partnership is an evolution of who we are. We’re building on our legacy by joining a company that shares our commitment to quality, innovation and customer service,” Martin Container CFO Charlie Martin said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

SeaCube Cold Solutions, a national investor in refrigerated equipment, has acquired Southern California-based Martin Container, a portable cold storage container company serving the West Coast. The move comes as SeaCube aims to create a better connected and responsive cold storage network for customers across the US. Financial terms were not disclosed. Launched in 2025, New Jersey-based SeaCube provides refrigeration solutions to grocery retailers; food distributors; logistics operators; and the agricultural, pharmaceutical, restaurant and festival industries. “This acquisition enhances both scale and regional strength,” James Armstrong, SeaCube’s senior vice president, said in a statement Friday. “Martin’s long-standing reputation and operational depth complement our growing national platform ...” Demand for portable cold storage continues to rise across the Southwest and Pacific Coast regions. Martin’s headquarters near the Los Angeles-Long Beach port complex is now integrated into SeaCube’s depot and transportation network, providing faster delivery to customers and improved regional coverage, according to the statement. Martin has a number of asset locations throughout California, Arizona and Nevada. “This partnership is an evolution of who we are. We’re building on our legacy by joining a company that shares our commitment to quality, innovation and customer service,” Martin Container CFO Charlie Martin said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .

Cool Cargo News

Supply chain

SeaCube acquires Martin Container in move to boost West Coast cold storage

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Florida International Terminal specializes in container and general cargo handling and provides direct connectivity to major highways and rail networks, with Crowley and Mediterranean Shipping Co. its most frequent callers over the past 12 months. </div>

Florida International Terminal specializes in container and general cargo handling and provides direct connectivity to major highways and rail networks, with Crowley and Mediterranean Shipping Co. its most frequent callers over the past 12 months.

<div class="phx-topic">Hapag-Lloyd’s terminal arm will take full ownership of Florida International Terminal (FIT) at Port Everglades following an agreement with the terminal’s minority owner. The terminal is part of the portfolio Hapag-Lloyd acquired in the 2022 acquisition of terminal operator SAAM. Hanseatic Global Terminals said in a statement Friday it reached an agreement with an affiliate of Chile’s Grupo Empresas Navieras (GEN) regarding the capital structure of FIT that will make Hanseatic the sole owner of the terminal. GEN had a 30% stake in FIT, according to its 2024 annual report. Terms of the deal were not disclosed. Hanseatic, which was established in 2023 as an independent entity within Hapag-Lloyd to own and operate terminal assets, picked up its original FIT stake in <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/hapag-lloyd-makes-1-billion-latin-american-terminal-takeover-5194252">the $1 billion deal for SAAM</a>. Last year, FIT extended its concession at Port Everglades through 2035, with Hanseatic pledging to invest $25 million in capital spending for the facility, according to a February 2025 statement from Hanseatic. FIT specializes in container and general cargo handling and provides direct connectivity to major highways and rail networks, Hanseatic’s statement said. US-based carrier Crowley has been the most frequent container line to call FIT over the last 12 months, according to Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, bringing in ships with an average capacity of about 1,000 TEUs. Mediterranean Shipping Co. is a close second, with 310 calls over the last 12 months, bringing in ships of 2,900-TEU capacity. In 2025, Port Everglades saw total containerized imports reach 346,074 TEUs, according to PIERS, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, a 5.5% drop from the year before. The Caribbean basin and Central and South America are its main cargo origins, accounting for 73% of the volume coming into Port Everglades. Hanseatic said in the statement it plans to grow its current terminal portfolio to cover approximately 30 ports by 2030, up from 21 currently. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto: michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Hapag-Lloyd’s terminal arm will take full ownership of Florida International Terminal (FIT) at Port Everglades following an agreement with the terminal’s minority owner. The terminal is part of the portfolio Hapag-Lloyd acquired in the 2022 acquisition of terminal operator SAAM. Hanseatic Global Terminals said in a statement Friday it reached an agreement with an affiliate of Chile’s Grupo Empresas Navieras (GEN) regarding the capital structure of FIT that will make Hanseatic the sole owner of the terminal. GEN had a 30% stake in FIT, according to its 2024 annual report. Terms of the deal were not disclosed. Hanseatic, which was established in 2023 as an independent entity within Hapag-Lloyd to own and operate terminal assets, picked up its original FIT stake in the $1 billion deal for SAAM . Last year, FIT extended its concession at Port Everglades through 2035, with Hanseatic pledging to invest $25 million in capital spending for the facility, according to a February 2025 statement from Hanseatic. FIT specializes in container and general cargo handling and provides direct connectivity to major highways and rail networks, Hanseatic’s statement said. US-based carrier Crowley has been the most frequent container line to call FIT over the last 12 months, according to Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, bringing in ships with an average capacity of about 1,000 TEUs. Mediterranean Shipping Co. is a close second, with 310 calls over the last 12 months, bringing in ships of 2,900-TEU capacity. In 2025, Port Everglades saw total containerized imports reach 346,074 TEUs, according to PIERS, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, a 5.5% drop from the year before. The Caribbean basin and Central and South America are its main cargo origins, accounting for 73% of the volume coming into Port Everglades. Hanseatic said in the statement it plans to grow its current terminal portfolio to cover approximately 30 ports by 2030, up from 21 currently. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

North American ports

Hapag-Lloyd’s terminal arm takes full control of Port Everglades terminal

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Onshore and offshore renewables projects will drive shipments of turbines and transformers, carriers in the sector say.</div>

Onshore and offshore renewables projects will drive shipments of turbines and transformers, carriers in the sector say.

<div class="phx-topic">Wind energy is on course to be the standout driver for the project cargo industry in 2026, say carriers serving engineering, procurement and construction companies in the sector. Kyriacos Panayides, managing director of multipurpose ship operator AAL Shipping, said the wind energy industry is set to add approximately 982 GW, both onshore and offshore, over the next five years, growing at about 8.8% annually. “These projects will continue to drive shipments of turbines, transformers and heavy components, translating into higher breakbulk shipping volumes,” Panayides told the Journal of Commerce.Melanie Drehkopf, COO of multipurpose vessel (MPV) operator dship Carriers, described growing activity in both the renewable and traditional energy sectors as a “major factor” in fresh green shoots of renewed stability for the sector. “Wind energy projects — offshore and onshore — continue to expand globally, driving a strong demand for the transportation of complex and oversized components,” she said. <h3>Optimism for Middle East market</h3>Panayides also gave a nod to renewables, describing project work in that sector as a “primary growth engine across Oceania, intra-Asia and Europe.” Further, sustained investment in oil, gas and construction is expected to underpin demand in the Middle East, while parts of North America show promise from growth in oil, gas and power, he said.“The Middle East and Persian Gulf remain pivotal growth corridors despite geopolitical tension, with renewed infrastructure and energy construction generating heavy-lift and breakbulk demand across ports and charter markets,” Panayides said.An executive at a third carrier who did not want to be identified said they were “most optimistic” about developments in the Middle East market, which has a strong pipeline of announced projects.Meanwhile, Indonesia’s shift from resource exports to onshore value-added manufacturing is creating a steady pipeline of inbound components, heavy equipment and specialized logistics, while India’s push for infrastructure and energy investment is increasing demand for transformers, modules and industrial equipment and boosting project cargo imports. In tandem with changes in cargo demand, shippers’ priorities are also evolving. Clients are increasingly prioritizing “flexibility and sustainability,” Drehkopf said, adding that a modernization of the MPV fleet is helping the sector adapt to shifting global requirements.Overall, market fundamentals look “encouraging,” Drehkopf said, despite the challenges of fluctuating rates and geopolitical uncertainty. “Overall, 2026 won’t be a year defined by rapid expansions, but a year of opportunities for carriers with the right technical capabilities and expertise,” she said.Contact Carly Fields at <a href="mailto:carly.fields@spglobal.com">carly.fields@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Wind energy is on course to be the standout driver for the project cargo industry in 2026, say carriers serving engineering, procurement and construction companies in the sector. Kyriacos Panayides, managing director of multipurpose ship operator AAL Shipping, said the wind energy industry is set to add approximately 982 GW, both onshore and offshore, over the next five years, growing at about 8.8% annually. “These projects will continue to drive shipments of turbines, transformers and heavy components, translating into higher breakbulk shipping volumes,” Panayides told the Journal of Commerce. Melanie Drehkopf, COO of multipurpose vessel (MPV) operator dship Carriers, described growing activity in both the renewable and traditional energy sectors as a “major factor” in fresh green shoots of renewed stability for the sector. “Wind energy projects — offshore and onshore — continue to expand globally, driving a strong demand for the transportation of complex and oversized components,” she said. Optimism for Middle East market Panayides also gave a nod to renewables, describing project work in that sector as a “primary growth engine across Oceania, intra-Asia and Europe.” Further, sustained investment in oil, gas and construction is expected to underpin demand in the Middle East, while parts of North America show promise from growth in oil, gas and power, he said. “The Middle East and Persian Gulf remain pivotal growth corridors despite geopolitical tension, with renewed infrastructure and energy construction generating heavy-lift and breakbulk demand across ports and charter markets,” Panayides said. An executive at a third carrier who did not want to be identified said they were “most optimistic” about developments in the Middle East market, which has a strong pipeline of announced projects. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s shift from resource exports to onshore value-added manufacturing is creating a steady pipeline of inbound components, heavy equipment and specialized logistics, while India’s push for infrastructure and energy investment is increasing demand for transformers, modules and industrial equipment and boosting project cargo imports. In tandem with changes in cargo demand, shippers’ priorities are also evolving. Clients are increasingly prioritizing “flexibility and sustainability,” Drehkopf said, adding that a modernization of the MPV fleet is helping the sector adapt to shifting global requirements. Overall, market fundamentals look “encouraging,” Drehkopf said, despite the challenges of fluctuating rates and geopolitical uncertainty. “Overall, 2026 won’t be a year defined by rapid expansions, but a year of opportunities for carriers with the right technical capabilities and expertise,” she said. Contact Carly Fields at carly.fields@spglobal.com .

Breakbulk carriers

Energy projects

Project cargo

Breakbulk News

Wind components expected to be a ‘standout’ cargo for MPVs in 2026

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">STG said the filing will reset its balance sheet and reduce debt obligations, but drayage, domestic intermodal, transloading and warehousing operations will not be affected.</div>

STG said the filing will reset its balance sheet and reduce debt obligations, but drayage, domestic intermodal, transloading and warehousing operations will not be affected.

<div class="phx-topic">STG Logistics, the US’s fourth-largest asset-based intermodal marketing company, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in New Jersey Monday, entering a court-supervised restructuring that the company said will reduce its debt while keeping freight moving without disruption. STG will reduce funded debt by approximately $952 million, a deleveraging of about 91%, while securing commitments for up to $150 million of new capital, according to the agreement included in the bankruptcy filing. STG, which maintains a large drayage presence in the Port of New York and New Jersey, among other East Coast ports, expects to emerge from Chapter 11 in about five months. The new financing will be structured as debtor-in-possession financing, a form of court-approved bankruptcy that provides cash while STG continues day-to-day operations. The restructuring will change after STG exits bankruptcy. The financing is known as a debt-for-equity swap, under which the participating lender group will trade its debt claims for ownership of the business upon exiting bankruptcy. The new ownership group will be private equity firms Antares Capital, Fortress Investment Group and Invesco, which were part of a controversial 2024 financing transaction that triggered litigation by STG’s minority lenders. Ohio-based STG owns approximately 15,000 domestic containers, behind J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Hub Group and Schneider National. STG also operates a joint service with CSX Transportation called RailPlus, a door-to-door domestic intermodal product covering nearly 350 lanes across the US. STG owns 32 warehouses across North America and offers transloading operations for international shippers. The company runs agency-based ocean drayage operations in US ports and inland rail ramps. STG said the filing will reset its balance sheet and reduce debt obligations, but drayage, domestic intermodal, transloading and warehousing operations will not be affected. Employees and drivers will continue to be paid, as will key vendors, including rail partners such as CSX and Union Pacific Railroad. STG’s bankruptcy was anticipated as the company faces multiple lawsuits and lacks the financial resiliency of larger intermodal competitors to navigate a freight recession approaching its fourth year. S&amp;P Global, the parent company of the Journal of Commerce, lowered STG’s credit rating in July to CCC, warning that free cash flow would end 2025 at $110 million in the red and that STG could run out of money early this year. A CCC rating is considered speculative-grade credit with a high risk of default. STG hired Kirkland &amp; Ellis and PJT Partners, firms known for bankruptcy filings, credit analysts at Octus reported last month. <h3>Lawsuits affected </h3>STG’s bankruptcy will impact two legal disputes involving the company. New Jersey Attorney General Matthew Platkin sued STG Logistics in December 2023 for worker misclassification, seeking back wages and penalties for more than 300 drivers. The lawsuit centers on the rules governing who qualifies as an employee versus an independent contractor. Like California’s AB5, New Jersey applies an “ABC test” that presumes employee status unless a company can satisfy three “prongs,” a high bar in drayage and trucking models. Those prongs are that the worker is free from the control of the hiring entity, that the work is performed outside the usual course of company business and that the worker is engaged in an independently established trade or occupation. The New Jersey case would be frozen and transferred to the bankruptcy court. The bankruptcy filing comes a week after a New York state judge allowed another lawsuit by minority lenders Axos Financial and Siemens Financial Services to move forward, according to The Wall Street Journal. Axos and Siemens were lenders in STG’s 2022 financing to acquire the intermodal division of XPO Logistics. In October 2024, STG announced a $300 million financing package, but Axos and Siemens later sued, alleging the deal also functioned as a liability-management transaction that shifted collateral and other protections toward new lenders, leaving them with weaker claims in bankruptcy. The October 2024 transaction included Antares, Fortress and Invesco, according to the Journal. The New York judge described the Axos and Siemens allegations as “lender bullying,” the Journal reported. Axos and Siemens were not parties to the agreement filed with the court. The filing triggers an automatic stay to the New York case, pausing litigation against the debtor as the restructuring proceeds. Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

STG Logistics, the US’s fourth-largest asset-based intermodal marketing company, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in New Jersey Monday, entering a court-supervised restructuring that the company said will reduce its debt while keeping freight moving without disruption. STG will reduce funded debt by approximately $952 million, a deleveraging of about 91%, while securing commitments for up to $150 million of new capital, according to the agreement included in the bankruptcy filing. STG, which maintains a large drayage presence in the Port of New York and New Jersey, among other East Coast ports, expects to emerge from Chapter 11 in about five months. The new financing will be structured as debtor-in-possession financing, a form of court-approved bankruptcy that provides cash while STG continues day-to-day operations. The restructuring will change after STG exits bankruptcy. The financing is known as a debt-for-equity swap, under which the participating lender group will trade its debt claims for ownership of the business upon exiting bankruptcy. The new ownership group will be private equity firms Antares Capital, Fortress Investment Group and Invesco, which were part of a controversial 2024 financing transaction that triggered litigation by STG’s minority lenders. Ohio-based STG owns approximately 15,000 domestic containers, behind J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Hub Group and Schneider National. STG also operates a joint service with CSX Transportation called RailPlus, a door-to-door domestic intermodal product covering nearly 350 lanes across the US. STG owns 32 warehouses across North America and offers transloading operations for international shippers. The company runs agency-based ocean drayage operations in US ports and inland rail ramps. STG said the filing will reset its balance sheet and reduce debt obligations, but drayage, domestic intermodal, transloading and warehousing operations will not be affected. Employees and drivers will continue to be paid, as will key vendors, including rail partners such as CSX and Union Pacific Railroad. STG’s bankruptcy was anticipated as the company faces multiple lawsuits and lacks the financial resiliency of larger intermodal competitors to navigate a freight recession approaching its fourth year. S&P Global, the parent company of the Journal of Commerce, lowered STG’s credit rating in July to CCC, warning that free cash flow would end 2025 at $110 million in the red and that STG could run out of money early this year. A CCC rating is considered speculative-grade credit with a high risk of default. STG hired Kirkland & Ellis and PJT Partners, firms known for bankruptcy filings, credit analysts at Octus reported last month. Lawsuits affected STG’s bankruptcy will impact two legal disputes involving the company. New Jersey Attorney General Matthew Platkin sued STG Logistics in December 2023 for worker misclassification, seeking back wages and penalties for more than 300 drivers. The lawsuit centers on the rules governing who qualifies as an employee versus an independent contractor. Like California’s AB5, New Jersey applies an “ABC test” that presumes employee status unless a company can satisfy three “prongs,” a high bar in drayage and trucking models. Those prongs are that the worker is free from the control of the hiring entity, that the work is performed outside the usual course of company business and that the worker is engaged in an independently established trade or occupation. The New Jersey case would be frozen and transferred to the bankruptcy court. The bankruptcy filing comes a week after a New York state judge allowed another lawsuit by minority lenders Axos Financial and Siemens Financial Services to move forward, according to The Wall Street Journal. Axos and Siemens were lenders in STG’s 2022 financing to acquire the intermodal division of XPO Logistics. In October 2024, STG announced a $300 million financing package, but Axos and Siemens later sued, alleging the deal also functioned as a liability-management transaction that shifted collateral and other protections toward new lenders, leaving them with weaker claims in bankruptcy. The October 2024 transaction included Antares, Fortress and Invesco, according to the Journal. The New York judge described the Axos and Siemens allegations as “lender bullying,” the Journal reported. Axos and Siemens were not parties to the agreement filed with the court. The filing triggers an automatic stay to the New York case, pausing litigation against the debtor as the restructuring proceeds. Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Intermodal providers

Surface

STG files Ch. 11 bankruptcy, but intermodal operations remain intact

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Most major carriers have set net-zero goals and are investing heavily in dual-fuel vessels that support their emissions-cutting strategies despite a lack of global regulatory support.</div>

Most major carriers have set net-zero goals and are investing heavily in dual-fuel vessels that support their emissions-cutting strategies despite a lack of global regulatory support.

<div class="phx-topic">Dual-fuel vessels capable of running on liquefied natural gas (LNG) continue to dominate the container shipping order book despite ongoing uncertainty around global emissions-cutting regulations.  While the overall newbuilding market across all shipping segments fell to 2,403 orders, down from 4,405 in 2024, new orders in container shipping rose from 447 in 2024 to 547 in 2025, accounting for 49% of all gross tonnage and 68% of alternative-fuel new orders, according to classification society DNV. “The resilience of the alternative fuels order book in 2025 is mainly driven by cargo owners who have set their own emissions reduction goals despite [the] market slowdown and regulatory uncertainty,” Jason Stefanatos, global decarbonization director at DNV, said in a market update Monday. "We see [ocean carriers] prioritizing investments where there is a strong alignment between fuel infrastructure, regulatory certainty and commercial viability, particularly in container shipping, where LNG and methanol are supported by established supply chains and customer demand,” he added. The chance for shipping to become the first global industry to implement emissions-reducing regulations was lost in October when <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/imo-punts-on-pivotal-net-zero-shipping-regulation-6099141">US-led opposition derailed the International Maritime Organization (IMO) net-zero framework</a> at a pivotal Marine Environmental Protection Committee (MEPC) meeting in London. The net-zero framework was postponed for at least a year and possibly longer if the US continues to lobby against it. At issue is the price differential between conventional bunker fuels and greener fuels. A global price on emissions is key to narrowing the price gap, spurring demand and giving green fuel producers an incentive to invest in production. The MEPC will meet again this coming October, and although the delay may hurt the broader case for investment in the development of alternative fuels and related infrastructure, container carriers and shipowners remain firmly focused on LNG as the top green fuel of choice in newbuild vessel orders. Net-zero targets set by carriers Most of the major carriers in container shipping have set net-zero goals and are investing heavily in dual-fuel vessels that support their emissions-cutting strategies despite the regulatory uncertainty.  Data from Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, shows that just over 4 million TEUs of capacity for LNG dual-fuel ships was on order in 2025, compared to 2 million TEUs of methanol-capable vessels. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="e8be4ac1-33cb-4758-93c4-1d0f92f52e7d"></dynamic-object></div>LNG as an interim alternative fuel solves multiple problems for container lines. It can reduce absolute carbon emissions by up to 20%, according to the American Bureau of Shipping, so progress toward decarbonization can be demonstrated to customers and the public. LNG is also more widely available than methanol, the supply of which is constrained and prices stubbornly high and will likely remain so due to IMO inaction on its zero-emissions framework. Maersk, for example, cited a lack of adequate supply when it <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/maersks-lng-order-hedges-bet-on-green-fuel-technology-ceo-5703200">pivoted from methanol to LNG in late 2024</a> for its next round of 50-60 vessels. DNV said in its market update that investment in fuel infrastructure was continuing at pace, with 22 LNG bunker vessels added to the orderbook alongside new bunkering vessels capable of supplying methanol and biofuel. These developments signal growing confidence in LNG supply chains and emerging multifuel capabilities, reducing operational risk and supporting the economics of alternative fuel adoption. With the IMO delay in adopting global decarbonization measures throwing interim greenhouse gas emissions targets into doubt, improving the fuel efficiency of vessels has attained even greater importance, particularly in Europe. The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) carbon tax and maritime fuel intensity regulations will come into full effect this year, and cutting vessel emissions will directly impact a carrier’s operating costs. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Dual-fuel vessels capable of running on liquefied natural gas (LNG) continue to dominate the container shipping order book despite ongoing uncertainty around global emissions-cutting regulations.   While the overall newbuilding market across all shipping segments fell to 2,403 orders, down from 4,405 in 2024, new orders in container shipping rose from 447 in 2024 to 547 in 2025, accounting for 49% of all gross tonnage and 68% of alternative-fuel new orders, according to classification society DNV.  “The resilience of the alternative fuels order book in 2025 is mainly driven by cargo owners who have set their own emissions reduction goals despite [the] market slowdown and regulatory uncertainty,” Jason Stefanatos, global decarbonization director at DNV, said in a market update Monday.  "We see [ocean carriers] prioritizing investments where there is a strong alignment between fuel infrastructure, regulatory certainty and commercial viability, particularly in container shipping, where LNG and methanol are supported by established supply chains and customer demand,” he added.  The chance for shipping to become the first global industry to implement emissions-reducing regulations was lost in October when  US-led opposition derailed the International Maritime Organization (IMO) net-zero framework  at a pivotal Marine Environmental Protection Committee (MEPC) meeting in London. The net-zero framework was postponed for at least a year and possibly longer if the US continues to lobby against it.  At issue is the price differential between conventional bunker fuels and greener fuels. A global price on emissions is key to narrowing the price gap, spurring demand and giving green fuel producers an incentive to invest in production.  The MEPC will meet again this coming October, and although the delay may hurt the broader case for investment in the development of alternative fuels and related infrastructure, container carriers and shipowners remain firmly focused on LNG as the top green fuel of choice in newbuild vessel orders.  Net-zero targets set by carriers  Most of the major carriers in container shipping have set net-zero goals and are investing heavily in dual-fuel vessels that support their emissions-cutting strategies despite the regulatory uncertainty.   Data from Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, shows that just over 4 million TEUs of capacity for LNG dual-fuel ships was on order in 2025, compared to 2 million TEUs of methanol-capable vessels.  LNG as an interim alternative fuel solves multiple problems for container lines. It can reduce absolute carbon emissions by up to 20%, according to the American Bureau of Shipping, so progress toward decarbonization can be demonstrated to customers and the public. LNG is also more widely available than methanol, the supply of which is constrained and prices stubbornly high and will likely remain so due to IMO inaction on its zero-emissions framework. Maersk, for example, cited a lack of adequate supply when it  pivoted from methanol to LNG in late 2024  for its next round of 50-60 vessels.  DNV said in its market update that investment in fuel infrastructure was continuing at pace, with 22 LNG bunker vessels added to the orderbook alongside new bunkering vessels capable of supplying methanol and biofuel. These developments signal growing confidence in LNG supply chains and emerging multifuel capabilities, reducing operational risk and supporting the economics of alternative fuel adoption.  With the IMO delay in adopting global decarbonization measures throwing interim greenhouse gas emissions targets into doubt, improving the fuel efficiency of vessels has attained even greater importance, particularly in Europe. The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) carbon tax and maritime fuel intensity regulations will come into full effect this year, and cutting vessel emissions will directly impact a carrier’s operating costs.  Contact Greg Knowler at  greg.knowler@spglobal.com . 

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

Container Shipping News

Solid growth evident in LNG order book despite regulatory uncertainty 

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The era of “good enough” visibility has ended, and data accuracy needs to match its operational and economic impacts.</div>

The era of “good enough” visibility has ended, and data accuracy needs to match its operational and economic impacts.

<div class="phx-topic">For more than a decade, global supply chain visibility arose out of necessity, not design. The industry accepted fragmented, inconsistent and delayed data due to a lack of alternatives. Carriers, terminals, depots and inland operators held isolated information, while early visibility platforms only aggregated available data through application programming interfaces, electronic data interchange, automatic identification systems or scraped tracking pages. This phase focused on dragging an industry reliant on email, phone and fax into a network upgrade. It was a necessary step. We are now in a very transitional phase. Aggregation filled a gap, but it isn't sustainable for an industry facing financial risks, climate accountability and operational complexity. The era of “good enough” visibility has ended, and data accuracy needs to match its operational and economic impacts. “Visibility” has reached a point where subscription models using aggregated data no longer meet supply chain accuracy needs. The industry recognizes that the future of visibility depends on structured, device-generated data and digital documentation, rather than on inferred events and paper trails. Device-driven data standards are the catalyst, providing reliable, tamper-resistant physical event data. Electronic bills of lading (eBLs) are emerging as the trusted legal backbone, with shipping lines aiming to make eBLs mandatory by 2030, replacing paper processes and modernizing trade finance. They form the architecture for a digital chain of custody. As regulatory, commercial, and environmental, social and governance pressures push for adoption, the future of visibility lies in inherently digital devices and documents, not retrofitted into legacy systems. Hapag-Lloyd’s 2023 decision to upgrade its dry container fleet with internet of things (IoT) devices, completed in 2025, reflects this shift. For a top-five carrier to fully implement real-time monitoring globally is more than a technological upgrade; it's a strategic move shaping the industry's future. Other major carriers have announced similar upgrades but haven't matched this scale or speed. This gap allows alternative IoT solutions, such as e-seals and owner-operated devices, to accelerate the move from inferred to verified events, regardless of each carrier’s pace. <h3>‘Edge intelligence hubs’ </h3>This momentum will bypass the liner carrier community, driven by two tech shifts: GPS-based edge devices and long-range, wide-area sensor networks (LoRaWAN). Modern GPS-enabled smart devices, such as smart container devices, are evolving from trackers into “edge intelligence hubs” that capture location, movement and security events and serve as gateways for nearby sensors. LoRaWAN is a low-cost, low-power, long-range wireless protocol that creates gateways at ports, terminals and inland logistics zones. It enables small, low-cost sensors to transmit authenticated data over distances exceeding one kilometer, even in dense metal environments. This enables automated detection of gate movements, tamper events and container interactions without manual scanning or expensive infrastructure. When combined, GPS-enabled smart devices and LoRaWAN sensors now cover the entire cargo spectrum: high-value shipments justify premium, high-resolution GPS tracking, while low-cost LoRaWAN supports low-value or commodity cargo. These technologies mark the beginning of a device-native visibility era: smart devices act as sensor hubs on assets, while LoRaWAN networks collect and verify data across logistics nodes. Together, they create a unified event layer that can scale independently of carrier adoption rates. As shipper-owned devices, e-seals and independent IoT networks proliferate, verified, device-generated events will increasingly emerge from the physical supply chain itself. The shift is clear: visibility is moving from reconstructed narratives to sensor-verified truth. <h3>Unlocking ‘new data economy’ </h3>That shift also unlocks a new data economy. In the next digital phase, value will accrue to those closest to the physical event. When a gate-in, gate-out, load-on or discharge is authenticated by a device owned and operated at the edge, it becomes a trusted event with economic weight. This is the foundation for visibility-as-a-transaction. The industry is entering a phase where data behaves like a financial asset, valued for its provenance, verification and trust. Sensor-verified events become units of value that can trigger eBL workflows, automated settlements and smart contracts, directly tying physical actions to money and compliance. This forces visibility platforms to choose a new role: become neutral data exchanges that monetize verified events or evolve into orchestration layers that compete with freight management systems. In either case, the old subscription model gives way to transaction-linked economics, where accuracy and dense, real-time IoT streams are what get paid for. Despite the hype about how AI will transform our industry, its effectiveness depends on high-quality event data. Without trusted and detailed events, AI mostly guesses. As the industry shifts to device-driven data, AI can shift from forecasting to real-time orchestration, balancing inventories, synchronizing flows and optimizing networks based on actual events rather than assumptions. As sensor-based visibility, digital records and event-linked payments merge, a new architecture for real-time coordination is emerging. The key question is who can adapt their business model quickly to thrive in this new environment. Our industry now has the technology to produce operational truth at scale through direct observation, not inference. The key is whether we’re ready to redesign incentives, systems and partnerships to realize its full potential value. I look forward to exploring this future at TPM26, one the global supply chain is finally ready to build. Peter Creeden is managing director at MPC International. Contact him at <a href="mailto:peter.creeden@mpc-international.com">peter.creeden@mpc-international.com.</a></div>

For more than a decade, global supply chain visibility arose out of necessity, not design. The industry accepted fragmented, inconsistent and delayed data due to a lack of alternatives. Carriers, terminals, depots and inland operators held isolated information, while early visibility platforms only aggregated available data through application programming interfaces, electronic data interchange, automatic identification systems or scraped tracking pages. This phase focused on dragging an industry reliant on email, phone and fax into a network upgrade. It was a necessary step. We are now in a very transitional phase. Aggregation filled a gap, but it isn't sustainable for an industry facing financial risks, climate accountability and operational complexity. The era of “good enough” visibility has ended, and data accuracy needs to match its operational and economic impacts. “Visibility” has reached a point where subscription models using aggregated data no longer meet supply chain accuracy needs. The industry recognizes that the future of visibility depends on structured, device-generated data and digital documentation, rather than on inferred events and paper trails. Device-driven data standards are the catalyst, providing reliable, tamper-resistant physical event data. Electronic bills of lading (eBLs) are emerging as the trusted legal backbone, with shipping lines aiming to make eBLs mandatory by 2030, replacing paper processes and modernizing trade finance. They form the architecture for a digital chain of custody. As regulatory, commercial, and environmental, social and governance pressures push for adoption, the future of visibility lies in inherently digital devices and documents, not retrofitted into legacy systems. Hapag-Lloyd’s 2023 decision to upgrade its dry container fleet with internet of things (IoT) devices, completed in 2025, reflects this shift. For a top-five carrier to fully implement real-time monitoring globally is more than a technological upgrade; it's a strategic move shaping the industry's future. Other major carriers have announced similar upgrades but haven't matched this scale or speed. This gap allows alternative IoT solutions, such as e-seals and owner-operated devices, to accelerate the move from inferred to verified events, regardless of each carrier’s pace. ‘Edge intelligence hubs’ This momentum will bypass the liner carrier community, driven by two tech shifts: GPS-based edge devices and long-range, wide-area sensor networks (LoRaWAN). Modern GPS-enabled smart devices, such as smart container devices, are evolving from trackers into “edge intelligence hubs” that capture location, movement and security events and serve as gateways for nearby sensors. LoRaWAN is a low-cost, low-power, long-range wireless protocol that creates gateways at ports, terminals and inland logistics zones. It enables small, low-cost sensors to transmit authenticated data over distances exceeding one kilometer, even in dense metal environments. This enables automated detection of gate movements, tamper events and container interactions without manual scanning or expensive infrastructure. When combined, GPS-enabled smart devices and LoRaWAN sensors now cover the entire cargo spectrum: high-value shipments justify premium, high-resolution GPS tracking, while low-cost LoRaWAN supports low-value or commodity cargo. These technologies mark the beginning of a device-native visibility era: smart devices act as sensor hubs on assets, while LoRaWAN networks collect and verify data across logistics nodes. Together, they create a unified event layer that can scale independently of carrier adoption rates. As shipper-owned devices, e-seals and independent IoT networks proliferate, verified, device-generated events will increasingly emerge from the physical supply chain itself. The shift is clear: visibility is moving from reconstructed narratives to sensor-verified truth. Unlocking ‘new data economy’ That shift also unlocks a new data economy. In the next digital phase, value will accrue to those closest to the physical event. When a gate-in, gate-out, load-on or discharge is authenticated by a device owned and operated at the edge, it becomes a trusted event with economic weight. This is the foundation for visibility-as-a-transaction. The industry is entering a phase where data behaves like a financial asset, valued for its provenance, verification and trust. Sensor-verified events become units of value that can trigger eBL workflows, automated settlements and smart contracts, directly tying physical actions to money and compliance. This forces visibility platforms to choose a new role: become neutral data exchanges that monetize verified events or evolve into orchestration layers that compete with freight management systems. In either case, the old subscription model gives way to transaction-linked economics, where accuracy and dense, real-time IoT streams are what get paid for. Despite the hype about how AI will transform our industry, its effectiveness depends on high-quality event data. Without trusted and detailed events, AI mostly guesses. As the industry shifts to device-driven data, AI can shift from forecasting to real-time orchestration, balancing inventories, synchronizing flows and optimizing networks based on actual events rather than assumptions. As sensor-based visibility, digital records and event-linked payments merge, a new architecture for real-time coordination is emerging. The key question is who can adapt their business model quickly to thrive in this new environment. Our industry now has the technology to produce operational truth at scale through direct observation, not inference. The key is whether we’re ready to redesign incentives, systems and partnerships to realize its full potential value. I look forward to exploring this future at TPM26, one the global supply chain is finally ready to build. Peter Creeden is managing director at MPC International. Contact him at peter.creeden@mpc-international.com.

From screen-scraped visibility to sensor-verified truth

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The National Motor Freight Traffic Association issued new guidelines to promote dimensional pricing last July but ignored the fact that the LTL industry was riddled with excess capacity and languishing demand.</div>

The National Motor Freight Traffic Association issued new guidelines to promote dimensional pricing last July but ignored the fact that the LTL industry was riddled with excess capacity and languishing demand.

<div class="phx-topic">In August 2023, the US less-than-truckload (LTL) industry received a great gift from Yellow when it closed 19,500 doors at 310-plus terminals across the country. The removal of approximately 14% of overall US LTL terminal capacity brought demand and supply into equilibrium ... for a short time. In spring 2024, LTL carriers collectively bid on these surplus terminals to prevent an oversupply of capacity creeping back with the startup of a new LTL carrier, something that hasn’t happened for more than 40 years. However, instead of banking those hundreds and thousands of doors for a future when they would be in demand, many carriers brought that capacity online, creating a huge gap between demand and supply. After achieving high double-digit operating margins in 2023, one of the most profitable years for the LTL industry in decades, carriers are praying for an increase in demand to offset the costs of this excess capacity. While retailers can increase consumer demand by lowering prices, transportation companies cannot do the same by lowering their freight charges for industrial shippers. After holding on to a grossly outdated pricing model that uses product density to determine charges for upward of five decades, the National Motor Freight Traffic Association (NMFTA) finally realized it needed to come out of the Stone Age. The association issued new guidelines to promote dimensional pricing as of July 19, 2025, ignoring the fact that the industry was riddled with excess capacity and languishing demand. Bad timing aside, the NMFTA also erred by only changing the approach for about 4,000 commodities, instead of all 18,000-plus commodities LTL operators haul. It also failed to acknowledge that FedEx Freight, the market leader by huge margin and facing a spinoff in June 2026, was unlikely to embrace such changes. <h3>‘Wasted opportunity’ </h3>With such a half-pregnant approach to dimensional pricing, neither the carriers nor the transportation management system providers were ready to support it. And, of course, having dealt with hundreds of LTL shippers, they have the least interest in making a switch for fear of increasing rates. The decision to do so for just a few commodities and during a freight recession has been a non-event and a wasted opportunity after 50 years of trying to enter the digital age, a change comparable to replacing a rotary dial phone with a cell phone. The industry reasonably thinks that the NMFTA was more concerned about jobs for its members and delaying the inevitable fate of its being shut down, similar to what happened to the ICC and many rate bureaus after deregulation in the 1980s. And while carriers sought to get shippers’ cooperation to declare the dimensions of the handling units on the shipping manifest, they still wanted shippers to list the commodity shipped and its freight class (which would be freight-all-kinds for many). It is a gross failure by carriers to not let go of bad practices of the past and then claim that shippers are uncooperative with the change to dimensional pricing. Neither the NMFTA nor the carriers considered that shippers would have no motivation to add the dimensions of the handling units if it did not add any value to their own shipping operation or help reduce shipping charges. With the huge emphasis on deploying AI for all business functions, the NMFTA also failed to consider the impact AI could have on LTL pricing and thereby overlooked the opportunities that would unfold with the change to dimensional pricing. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="29692a74-5961-42e8-9a76-9430713eb859"></dynamic-object></div>The NMFTA can still achieve its goal to replace current National Motor Freight Classification with dimensional pricing by applying it to all commodities — and with it the disbanding of the organization because it will not be needed, just as the air freight and parcel segments utilize dimensional pricing without a third-party entity to manage it. Satish Jindel is president of ShipMatrix. Contact him at <a href="mailto:info@shipmatrix.com">info@shipmatrix.com</a>. </div>

In August 2023, the US less-than-truckload (LTL) industry received a great gift from Yellow when it closed 19,500 doors at 310-plus terminals across the country. The removal of approximately 14% of overall US LTL terminal capacity brought demand and supply into equilibrium ... for a short time. In spring 2024, LTL carriers collectively bid on these surplus terminals to prevent an oversupply of capacity creeping back with the startup of a new LTL carrier, something that hasn’t happened for more than 40 years. However, instead of banking those hundreds and thousands of doors for a future when they would be in demand, many carriers brought that capacity online, creating a huge gap between demand and supply. After achieving high double-digit operating margins in 2023, one of the most profitable years for the LTL industry in decades, carriers are praying for an increase in demand to offset the costs of this excess capacity. While retailers can increase consumer demand by lowering prices, transportation companies cannot do the same by lowering their freight charges for industrial shippers. After holding on to a grossly outdated pricing model that uses product density to determine charges for upward of five decades, the National Motor Freight Traffic Association (NMFTA) finally realized it needed to come out of the Stone Age. The association issued new guidelines to promote dimensional pricing as of July 19, 2025, ignoring the fact that the industry was riddled with excess capacity and languishing demand. Bad timing aside, the NMFTA also erred by only changing the approach for about 4,000 commodities, instead of all 18,000-plus commodities LTL operators haul. It also failed to acknowledge that FedEx Freight, the market leader by huge margin and facing a spinoff in June 2026, was unlikely to embrace such changes. ‘Wasted opportunity’ With such a half-pregnant approach to dimensional pricing, neither the carriers nor the transportation management system providers were ready to support it. And, of course, having dealt with hundreds of LTL shippers, they have the least interest in making a switch for fear of increasing rates. The decision to do so for just a few commodities and during a freight recession has been a non-event and a wasted opportunity after 50 years of trying to enter the digital age, a change comparable to replacing a rotary dial phone with a cell phone. The industry reasonably thinks that the NMFTA was more concerned about jobs for its members and delaying the inevitable fate of its being shut down, similar to what happened to the ICC and many rate bureaus after deregulation in the 1980s. And while carriers sought to get shippers’ cooperation to declare the dimensions of the handling units on the shipping manifest, they still wanted shippers to list the commodity shipped and its freight class (which would be freight-all-kinds for many). It is a gross failure by carriers to not let go of bad practices of the past and then claim that shippers are uncooperative with the change to dimensional pricing. Neither the NMFTA nor the carriers considered that shippers would have no motivation to add the dimensions of the handling units if it did not add any value to their own shipping operation or help reduce shipping charges. With the huge emphasis on deploying AI for all business functions, the NMFTA also failed to consider the impact AI could have on LTL pricing and thereby overlooked the opportunities that would unfold with the change to dimensional pricing. The NMFTA can still achieve its goal to replace current National Motor Freight Classification with dimensional pricing by applying it to all commodities — and with it the disbanding of the organization because it will not be needed, just as the air freight and parcel segments utilize dimensional pricing without a third-party entity to manage it. Satish Jindel is president of ShipMatrix. Contact him at info@shipmatrix.com .

NMFTA can still achieve its goals on pricing model — then disband

West

East

Gulf

PIERS containerized US import and export volumes is the transportation industry’s largest US waterborne trade data set, covering all US ports. Every day, the PIERS team processes an average of about 60,000 bills of lading filed with US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and integrates this transactional trade data with standardized company details. PIERS contains US trade data going back to 2003. [PIERS](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/products/piers.html)

Asia to US West, East and Gulf Coast YTD container volume market share (PIERS)

PIERS TEU market share US coastal imports from Asia (YTD) Gateway

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The growth in traffic on intra-Asian routes is a result of ongoing US demand for cloud infrastructure logistics related to the rapid development of AI technology.</div>

The growth in traffic on intra-Asian routes is a result of ongoing US demand for cloud infrastructure logistics related to the rapid development of AI technology.

<div class="phx-topic">Strong US air cargo demand for high-tech and AI-related exports from Southeast Asia is having the indirect effect of placing intra-Asia capacity under mounting pressure as most flights to North America are routed via regional transit hubs. While the air cargo industry prepares for Asian export volume to rise over the next few weeks in line with seasonal demand ahead of the Lunar New Year that begins on Feb. 17, forwarders are already reporting congestion at some of the region’s key airports. Kathy Liu, vice president of global sales and marketing at Taiwan-based Dimerco Express Group, said the China-plus-one production strategy, accelerated by US tariffs last year, was strengthening intra-Asia demand. “This will further constrain intra-Asia capacity, as transit carriers are prioritizing first-leg capacity for long-haul cargo to maximize revenue,” Liu told the Journal of Commerce Thursday. “As a result, major transit hubs such as Hong Kong, Taipei, Singapore, Incheon and Narita are expected to remain highly congested.” The growth in traffic on intra-Asian routes is being accelerated by US tariffs imposed on Beijing in 2025 that led to a shift in regional trade flows through the second half of the year and drove increasing demand from Southeast Asian origins. Tobias Hofemeier, senior vice president for air logistics in greater China at Kuehne + Nagel, said there was ongoing high demand for cloud infrastructure logistics related to the rapid development of AI technology. He cited data from research and advisory firm Gartner projecting 21.3% year-over-year growth in public cloud services in 2026. “We expect continued growth in Southeast Asian countries like Thailand and Vietnam ... due to strong demand driven primarily by high tech, electronics and semiconductor cargo,” Hofemeier said. Kuehne + Nagel uses available commercial capacity on the trans-Pacific and supplements that with nine Kuehne + Nagel-dedicated flights per week from Vietnam to the US and six flights from Taiwan to the US. <h3>Freighter capacity constraints </h3>Air freight capacity data from analyst Rotate shows high growth in direct flights on the Southeast Asia-North America trade lane in the past week, but much of the cargo on that corridor is shipped indirectly to the US through Asian transit hubs. While demand increases, overall capacity, especially belly capacity on commercial flights, is projected to remain at 2025 levels because of delays in aircraft deliveries. Boeing and Airbus have been facing long delays in producing, certifying and delivering new aircraft, severely constricting the ability of airlines to grow their fleets. Another capacity-limiting factor for the industry is the grounding of all McDonnell Douglas MD-11 freighters and DC-10s following the fatal crash in Louisville, Kentucky, in November. Most of the 70 freighters are operated by FedEx and UPS (52 planes) and will be grounded indefinitely. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="a3f6b9ed-e750-40e5-8b28-b4d1703b5c40"></dynamic-object></div>Sou Ping Chee, regional head of air freight in Asia Pacific for Hellmann Worldwide Logistics, said capacity provided by commercial airlines comprised more than 80% of the global market. ”It will remain tight this year because there’s no significant additional capacity being added with few new freighter aircrafts that will be delivered this year,” he told the Journal of Commerce Thursday. But an unknown factor was how much chartered freighter capacity would return to the market this year and what impact it would have on increasing available space. Chee explained that when the US scrapped the de minimis exemption for low-value Chinese imports in May last year and demand tumbled on the trans-Pacific, many chartered freighters were redeployed to other routes. "Charters are committed for at least for a year and they had to somehow find a way to keep flying and filling their aircraft,” Chee said. “This year onwards, some of the e-commerce charter contracts will be due for renewal, so it will be interesting to see how many are renewed and how much capacity is returned to the market.” <h3>Tailwinds of growth</h3>In his latest monthly market update, Niall van de Wouw, chief air freight officer at rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, said one of the tailwinds of demand growth in 2025 came from investment linked to the development of AI solutions. But he warned that the less buoyant forward-looking signals for Chinese e-commerce exports were worrying. Despite a sharp drop in US business, China’s air freight exports are still dominated by e-commerce that comprises approximately one-third of the country’s total air cargo volume. “China’s cross-border e-commerce volumes were flat in October and November,” van de Wouw said. “If we see a third consecutive month of lower e-commerce growth out of China, that is a big signal, while duties imposed by other countries may present more unwelcome news for the air cargo market going forward.” Chinese customs data shows low-value and e-commerce exports in November rose by just 1% year over year after flatlining in October. Exports to the US represented the majority of the decline, falling 52% year over year in November after a drop of 51% in October. Before the de minimis ban imposed by Washington, China-US e-commerce accounted for approximately 3% of global air cargo volumes. China-European Union e-commerce volume continued to grow, expanding 29% in November following 47% year-over-year growth in October. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Strong US air cargo demand for high-tech and AI-related exports from Southeast Asia is having the indirect effect of placing intra-Asia capacity under mounting pressure as most flights to North America are routed via regional transit hubs. While the air cargo industry prepares for Asian export volume to rise over the next few weeks in line with seasonal demand ahead of the Lunar New Year that begins on Feb. 17, forwarders are already reporting congestion at some of the region’s key airports. Kathy Liu, vice president of global sales and marketing at Taiwan-based Dimerco Express Group, said the China-plus-one production strategy, accelerated by US tariffs last year, was strengthening intra-Asia demand. “This will further constrain intra-Asia capacity, as transit carriers are prioritizing first-leg capacity for long-haul cargo to maximize revenue,” Liu told the Journal of Commerce Thursday. “As a result, major transit hubs such as Hong Kong, Taipei, Singapore, Incheon and Narita are expected to remain highly congested.” The growth in traffic on intra-Asian routes is being accelerated by US tariffs imposed on Beijing in 2025 that led to a shift in regional trade flows through the second half of the year and drove increasing demand from Southeast Asian origins. Tobias Hofemeier, senior vice president for air logistics in greater China at Kuehne + Nagel, said there was ongoing high demand for cloud infrastructure logistics related to the rapid development of AI technology. He cited data from research and advisory firm Gartner projecting 21.3% year-over-year growth in public cloud services in 2026. “We expect continued growth in Southeast Asian countries like Thailand and Vietnam ... due to strong demand driven primarily by high tech, electronics and semiconductor cargo,” Hofemeier said. Kuehne + Nagel uses available commercial capacity on the trans-Pacific and supplements that with nine Kuehne + Nagel-dedicated flights per week from Vietnam to the US and six flights from Taiwan to the US. Freighter capacity constraints Air freight capacity data from analyst Rotate shows high growth in direct flights on the Southeast Asia-North America trade lane in the past week, but much of the cargo on that corridor is shipped indirectly to the US through Asian transit hubs. While demand increases, overall capacity, especially belly capacity on commercial flights, is projected to remain at 2025 levels because of delays in aircraft deliveries. Boeing and Airbus have been facing long delays in producing, certifying and delivering new aircraft, severely constricting the ability of airlines to grow their fleets. Another capacity-limiting factor for the industry is the grounding of all McDonnell Douglas MD-11 freighters and DC-10s following the fatal crash in Louisville, Kentucky, in November. Most of the 70 freighters are operated by FedEx and UPS (52 planes) and will be grounded indefinitely. Sou Ping Chee, regional head of air freight in Asia Pacific for Hellmann Worldwide Logistics, said capacity provided by commercial airlines comprised more than 80% of the global market. ”It will remain tight this year because there’s no significant additional capacity being added with few new freighter aircrafts that will be delivered this year,” he told the Journal of Commerce Thursday. But an unknown factor was how much chartered freighter capacity would return to the market this year and what impact it would have on increasing available space. Chee explained that when the US scrapped the de minimis exemption for low-value Chinese imports in May last year and demand tumbled on the trans-Pacific, many chartered freighters were redeployed to other routes. "Charters are committed for at least for a year and they had to somehow find a way to keep flying and filling their aircraft,” Chee said. “This year onwards, some of the e-commerce charter contracts will be due for renewal, so it will be interesting to see how many are renewed and how much capacity is returned to the market.” Tailwinds of growth In his latest monthly market update, Niall van de Wouw, chief air freight officer at rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, said one of the tailwinds of demand growth in 2025 came from investment linked to the development of AI solutions. But he warned that the less buoyant forward-looking signals for Chinese e-commerce exports were worrying. Despite a sharp drop in US business, China’s air freight exports are still dominated by e-commerce that comprises approximately one-third of the country’s total air cargo volume. “China’s cross-border e-commerce volumes were flat in October and November,” van de Wouw said. “If we see a third consecutive month of lower e-commerce growth out of China, that is a big signal, while duties imposed by other countries may present more unwelcome news for the air cargo market going forward.” Chinese customs data shows low-value and e-commerce exports in November rose by just 1% year over year after flatlining in October. Exports to the US represented the majority of the decline, falling 52% year over year in November after a drop of 51% in October. Before the de minimis ban imposed by Washington, China-US e-commerce accounted for approximately 3% of global air cargo volumes. China-European Union e-commerce volume continued to grow, expanding 29% in November following 47% year-over-year growth in October. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Air Cargo

Intra-Asia air freight capacity tightens on US high-tech demand

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Contract shippers have not felt the impact of the surge last month in spot market truckload rates, but that could change amid market uncertainty as 2026 begins.</div>

Contract shippers have not felt the impact of the surge last month in spot market truckload rates, but that could change amid market uncertainty as 2026 begins.

<div class="phx-topic">The newfound strength in US truckload pricing could become a turning point if it lasts until mid-February, long enough that shippers could see it in their contracts, but there are also plenty of hazards that could cause the freight recession to linger into a fourth year, analysts warn. Truckload spot rates were largely tepid between February and November, but shot up 19 cents per mile in December from November, which was also a 9.1% increase year over year, according to a Journal of Commerce analysis of truckload data from DAT Freight and Analytics and managed transportation provider Loadsmart. The average national rate paid by shippers last month was $2.46 per mile across the US, including fuel, on lanes 250 miles or greater. “I do think a lot of [the] rate increase in December was weather driven ... winter weather hitting the Midwest and Northeast,” David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, said Tuesday on the Meet Me for Coffee podcast hosted by Samantha Jones. “Rates are going to come back down. I think it’s a short-lived season volatility.” Jason Miller, professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, said the key month to watch is February. Rates tend to remain slightly elevated in January because of the reverse logistics involved in returning Christmas gifts. But if rates remain elevated through February — which Miller doesn’t believe will happen — then pricing power could shift to the carriers. “We’re entering this year, from a manufacturing standpoint, in a worse position today than we were entering last year,” Miller said on the podcast. A shipper who did not want to be identified told the Journal of Commerce that his contract truckload carriers have not broached the subject of raising contract rates based off the December spot market surge. <h3>Data picture is cloudy </h3>Economists are working through the backlog of data that accumulated during the 43-day government shutdown in October and November. “The hard part is that we’re still waiting for a lot of government data that we’d love to have,” Miller said. “New single family home permits were down 10% year over year last August, but that feels like ancient history.” The S&amp;P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was in expansion territory in December at 51.8, but the outlook was much more cautious. “Something of a Wile E. Coyote scenario has developed, whereby — just like the cartoon character continues to run despite chasing the roadrunner off a cliff — factories are continuing to produce goods despite suffering a drop in orders,” wrote Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence. The gap between production and new orders was the widest since the Great Recession of 2008–09, indicating “current factory production levels are clearly unsustainable,” Williamson wrote. That’s relevant because industrial freight powers the trucks and railroads, hauling raw materials and intermediate products used to make durable and non-durable consumer products. There are other signs that could cool the December euphoria of carriers, including the federal government this month beginning to garnish the wages of those who are delinquent on their student loans, a practice that was halted during the COVID-19 pandemic. “Holiday shopping is often on credit cards, and so when we start seeing wage garnishments to pay student loans, it’s going to create real strain on some consumers,” Aaron Terrazas, an independent economist who previously worked for companies such as Convoy, Glassdoor and Zillow, said on the Jones webcast. <h3>Things could change fast </h3>Despite the lackluster macroeconomic picture, there are unknowns that could quickly shock the market and shift pricing power back to carriers. The US Supreme Court must rule on whether President Donald Trump had the authority to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to apply reciprocal tariffs across dozens of trading partners last year. The Court will hand down a series of rulings this Friday, but it is unknown if the tariffs case will be one of them. If the Court rules against Trump, and the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates, it could create a one-two punch that could shock the markets. “There will be a window which I think shippers will just force as much they can through the pipe before the administration finds another way to get tariffs in place,” Terrazas said. “If the pipe opens, even if it’s for just two or three months, I think you’ll see just an absolute bonanza ... It’ll be absolute and total hell on all transportation managers [shippers].” If the Court rules for Trump, however, the administration has floated the idea of issuing tariff rebate checks of up to $2,000 to US citizens. If people receive that money, it could be the demand catalyst to kickstart a freight recovery, according to Terrazas and Miller. There is also the battle between the US Department of Transportation (USDOT) and several states over rescinding non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) to asylum seekers and other visa holders that were previously qualified. California announced a 60-day extension on canceling the non-domiciled CDLs, kicking the issue to March, while the USDOT has threatened to withhold federal funds over that decision. It is unclear what the impact on both truckload and port drayage would be if California canceled as many as 17,000 non-domiciled CDLs.“I think vulnerability to sustained disruption is a major issue,” Spencer said on the webcast. “Use this past little stretch in December as a good indicator of what to expect because there are going to be periods of volatility.” Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The newfound strength in US truckload pricing could become a turning point if it lasts until mid-February, long enough that shippers could see it in their contracts, but there are also plenty of hazards that could cause the freight recession to linger into a fourth year, analysts warn. Truckload spot rates were largely tepid between February and November, but shot up 19 cents per mile in December from November, which was also a 9.1% increase year over year, according to a Journal of Commerce analysis of truckload data from DAT Freight and Analytics and managed transportation provider Loadsmart. The average national rate paid by shippers last month was $2.46 per mile across the US, including fuel, on lanes 250 miles or greater. “I do think a lot of [the] rate increase in December was weather driven ... winter weather hitting the Midwest and Northeast,” David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, said Tuesday on the Meet Me for Coffee podcast hosted by Samantha Jones. “Rates are going to come back down. I think it’s a short-lived season volatility.” Jason Miller, professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, said the key month to watch is February. Rates tend to remain slightly elevated in January because of the reverse logistics involved in returning Christmas gifts. But if rates remain elevated through February — which Miller doesn’t believe will happen — then pricing power could shift to the carriers. “We’re entering this year, from a manufacturing standpoint, in a worse position today than we were entering last year,” Miller said on the podcast. A shipper who did not want to be identified told the Journal of Commerce that his contract truckload carriers have not broached the subject of raising contract rates based off the December spot market surge. Data picture is cloudy Economists are working through the backlog of data that accumulated during the 43-day government shutdown in October and November. “The hard part is that we’re still waiting for a lot of government data that we’d love to have,” Miller said. “New single family home permits were down 10% year over year last August, but that feels like ancient history.” The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was in expansion territory in December at 51.8, but the outlook was much more cautious. “Something of a Wile E. Coyote scenario has developed, whereby — just like the cartoon character continues to run despite chasing the roadrunner off a cliff — factories are continuing to produce goods despite suffering a drop in orders,” wrote Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. The gap between production and new orders was the widest since the Great Recession of 2008–09, indicating “current factory production levels are clearly unsustainable,” Williamson wrote. That’s relevant because industrial freight powers the trucks and railroads, hauling raw materials and intermediate products used to make durable and non-durable consumer products. There are other signs that could cool the December euphoria of carriers, including the federal government this month beginning to garnish the wages of those who are delinquent on their student loans, a practice that was halted during the COVID-19 pandemic. “Holiday shopping is often on credit cards, and so when we start seeing wage garnishments to pay student loans, it’s going to create real strain on some consumers,” Aaron Terrazas, an independent economist who previously worked for companies such as Convoy, Glassdoor and Zillow, said on the Jones webcast. Things could change fast Despite the lackluster macroeconomic picture, there are unknowns that could quickly shock the market and shift pricing power back to carriers. The US Supreme Court must rule on whether President Donald Trump had the authority to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to apply reciprocal tariffs across dozens of trading partners last year. The Court will hand down a series of rulings this Friday, but it is unknown if the tariffs case will be one of them. If the Court rules against Trump, and the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates, it could create a one-two punch that could shock the markets. “There will be a window which I think shippers will just force as much they can through the pipe before the administration finds another way to get tariffs in place,” Terrazas said. “If the pipe opens, even if it’s for just two or three months, I think you’ll see just an absolute bonanza ... It’ll be absolute and total hell on all transportation managers [shippers].” If the Court rules for Trump, however, the administration has floated the idea of issuing tariff rebate checks of up to $2,000 to US citizens. If people receive that money, it could be the demand catalyst to kickstart a freight recovery, according to Terrazas and Miller. There is also the battle between the US Department of Transportation (USDOT) and several states over rescinding non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) to asylum seekers and other visa holders that were previously qualified. California announced a 60-day extension on canceling the non-domiciled CDLs, kicking the issue to March, while the USDOT has threatened to withhold federal funds over that decision. It is unclear what the impact on both truckload and port drayage would be if California canceled as many as 17,000 non-domiciled CDLs. “I think vulnerability to sustained disruption is a major issue,” Spencer said on the webcast. “Use this past little stretch in December as a good indicator of what to expect because there are going to be periods of volatility.” Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Trucking News

Truckload

US truckload pricing remains unsettled despite red-hot December

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Few blank sailings have been announced for January, and none this week, as shippers in Asia get their cargo on the water ahead of China’s Lunar New Year factory shutdown.</div>

Few blank sailings have been announced for January, and none this week, as shippers in Asia get their cargo on the water ahead of China’s Lunar New Year factory shutdown.

<div class="phx-topic">The annual pre-Lunar New Year rush is underway on the Asia-North Europe ocean trade, with some market watchers reporting signs of frontloading on top of seasonal demand while others feel the volumes in January are within historical norms.What is clear, however, is that carriers are injecting significant capacity into the trade lane this month while blanking very few sailings as shippers race to get their cargo on the water before factories across China close for up to three weeks. The Year of the Horse begins on Feb. 17.Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, said capacity offered on Asia to North Europe was at an all-time high this week with no blank sailings. Data from Xeneta’s eeSea shows a record 1.15 million TEUs in capacity is being deployed this month on the Asia-North Europe trade lane, with blank sailings removing just 25,000 TEUs. In February, the planned capacity will drop to just over 1 million TEUs.“Demand is solid and seasonally strong ... anything of top of that could be fueled by [market] uncertainty,” Sand told the Journal of Commerce.Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis also highlighted a significant capacity increase, pointing to current weekly capacity of 421,825 TEUs being offered on Asia-North Europe, a 49% net increase compared with a 2015–19 pre-COVID-19 historical baseline.<div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="a63d21f3-de18-45d8-8acf-7aca6ea4f4c4"></dynamic-object></div>“This is a strong indication of a frontloading strategy where shippers are pushing massive volumes into the network much earlier than the historical figures suggest, likely a response to the current extended Asia-Europe transit times,” Sea-Intelligence wrote in the newsletter.“By flooding the trade lane early, shippers aim to ensure that their European inventory is buffered before the planned Lunar New Year capacity withdrawal begins,” the analyst noted.<h3>Demand following seasonal patterns</h3>A spokesman for Hapag-Lloyd said demand on the eastbound trade routes from Asia to Europe was following seasonal patterns.“We’re witnessing a normal peak season which started in December and is now ramping up towards Lunar New Year,” a spokesperson for Hapag-Lloyd told the Journal of Commerce. “We expect bookings to soften from end-January onwards as factories close.”Michael Aldwell, executive vice president of sea logistics at Kuehne + Nagel, said most of the forwarder’s customers in Europe used a “just-in-time” approach to manage supply chains and stock levels, which was affecting the duration of peak shipping periods.“[However], after two years of extended transit times, shippers are adjusting their plans accordingly, leading to a more stretched peak season,” Aldwell told the Journal of Commerce.Rising spot rates are accompanying the strong pre-Lunar New Year demand, with all indexes showing steep increases since early October. According to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, Asia-North Europe rates of $2,700 per FEU this week are more than double the Oct. 3 price. Container Trades Statistics, in its latest available data (October), shows Asia-North Europe container volume growth of almost 8% over the first 10 months of 2025 as oscillating US tariffs on Beijing saw Chinese shippers redirecting cargo to European markets. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The annual pre-Lunar New Year rush is underway on the Asia-North Europe ocean trade, with some market watchers reporting signs of frontloading on top of seasonal demand while others feel the volumes in January are within historical norms. What is clear, however, is that carriers are injecting significant capacity into the trade lane this month while blanking very few sailings as shippers race to get their cargo on the water before factories across China close for up to three weeks. The Year of the Horse begins on Feb. 17. Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, said capacity offered on Asia to North Europe was at an all-time high this week with no blank sailings. Data from Xeneta’s eeSea shows a record 1.15 million TEUs in capacity is being deployed this month on the Asia-North Europe trade lane, with blank sailings removing just 25,000 TEUs. In February, the planned capacity will drop to just over 1 million TEUs. “Demand is solid and seasonally strong ... anything of top of that could be fueled by [market] uncertainty,” Sand told the Journal of Commerce. Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis also highlighted a significant capacity increase, pointing to current weekly capacity of 421,825 TEUs being offered on Asia-North Europe, a 49% net increase compared with a 2015–19 pre-COVID-19 historical baseline. “This is a strong indication of a frontloading strategy where shippers are pushing massive volumes into the network much earlier than the historical figures suggest, likely a response to the current extended Asia-Europe transit times,” Sea-Intelligence wrote in the newsletter. “By flooding the trade lane early, shippers aim to ensure that their European inventory is buffered before the planned Lunar New Year capacity withdrawal begins,” the analyst noted. Demand following seasonal patterns A spokesman for Hapag-Lloyd said demand on the eastbound trade routes from Asia to Europe was following seasonal patterns. “We’re witnessing a normal peak season which started in December and is now ramping up towards Lunar New Year,” a spokesperson for Hapag-Lloyd told the Journal of Commerce. “We expect bookings to soften from end-January onwards as factories close.” Michael Aldwell, executive vice president of sea logistics at Kuehne + Nagel, said most of the forwarder’s customers in Europe used a “just-in-time” approach to manage supply chains and stock levels, which was affecting the duration of peak shipping periods. “[However], after two years of extended transit times, shippers are adjusting their plans accordingly, leading to a more stretched peak season,” Aldwell told the Journal of Commerce. Rising spot rates are accompanying the strong pre-Lunar New Year demand, with all indexes showing steep increases since early October. According to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, Asia-North Europe rates of $2,700 per FEU this week are more than double the Oct. 3 price. Container Trades Statistics, in its latest available data (October), shows Asia-North Europe container volume growth of almost 8% over the first 10 months of 2025 as oscillating US tariffs on Beijing saw Chinese shippers redirecting cargo to European markets. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Asia-Europe ocean carriers add capacity as trade enters peak shipping period

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Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) has long been the backbone of global commerce, quietly facilitating trillions in transactions. Yet, despite its critical role, traditional EDI has remained notoriously complex, labor-intensive, viewed as antique, and costly. Companies have historically grappled with cumbersome mapping processes, intricate partner-specific logic, and extended onboarding timelines. Now, as industries increasingly adopt agile digital frameworks, the limitations of conventional EDI solutions have become glaringly apparent. Enter Mosaic, an innovative solution unveiled by Orderful, which promises to radically streamline and modernize EDI integration through artificial intelligence. Orderful, already recognized for simplifying supply chain data exchanges, has now introduced Mosaic as the first AI-enriched EDI integration product that completely removes traditional mapping processes. At its core, Mosaic represents a fundamental shift from legacy EDI protocols, replacing archaic, code-heavy formats such as X12 and EDIFACT with modern, easy to use JSON inputs oriented around system-of-record concepts. This alone significantly lowers the barrier to integration, allowing teams accustomed to modern SaaS API development to seamlessly adopt EDI workflows. Mosaic's AI-powered engine ingests and interprets trading partner requirements as well as millions of actual transactions to build reliable, reuseable, self-healing integration which translating data into partner-specific formats without manual intervention. Such automated adaptability is unprecedented in the EDI landscape and promises a marked reduction in implementation timelines, from what once took months or even years, down to mere weeks. Erik Kiser, founder and CEO of Orderful, understands firsthand the pain points of traditional EDI. Having built integrations himself early in his career, Kiser founded Orderful specifically to address the persistent challenges that frustrate businesses across the supply chain. "Nobody has been more frustrated by EDI than I have," Kiser notes candidly. "Those experiences are precisely why Orderful and now Mosaic exist." Mosaic further distinguishes itself by embedding real-time validation and debugging, streamlining error resolution from lengthy processes into rapid, straightforward fixes. Developers, traditionally burdened by the complexities of partner-specific requirements and intricate coding standards, now gain an intuitive, self-service environment. This reduction in complexity not only accelerates implementation but also reduces operational overhead, offering critical advantages in today’s fast-paced business environment. Brian Roberts, general partner at Andreessen Horowitz and Orderful board member, underscores Mosaic's industry impact: "Mosaic has taken one of the most entrenched bottlenecks in enterprise technology, EDI mapping, and replaced it with an AI-native product that adapts automatically. It’s exactly the type of innovation the industry has been missing." While Mosaic initially supports the complete Order-to-Cash lifecycle, covering purchase orders, acknowledgments, shipping notices, and invoices, the platform is designed for continuous growth and expansion. Orderful sees Mosaic not merely as a product but as a foundational architecture poised to support a broader range of data flows and integrations, aligning perfectly with the scalable requirements of global businesses. “The underlying unified data model not only lets us act as the universal connector, but also enables us to build product once that applies to all partners. This includes EDI functionality like order splitting and consolidation, but also unlocks powerful analytics and insights for our customers to help them grow their business,” said Will Benish, principal product manager at Orderful. Security and reliability are integral to Mosaic’s infrastructure, evidenced by SOC 2 Type II compliance and OAuth 2.0 integration. Additionally, the platform guarantees robust performance, boasting sub-second transaction speeds and immediate access to an extensive network of over 10,000 trading partners. For businesses already utilizing Orderful, Mosaic offers a seamless upgrade pathway, allowing organizations to embrace the future of EDI without disrupting their current trading partner relationships. New clients will find Mosaic’s approach refreshingly modern, providing immediate gains in speed, ease of integration, and scalability. Mosaic represents more than just an incremental improvement; it's a visionary leap forward in how enterprises manage and leverage supply chain data. As businesses grapple with increasingly complex global supply networks, Orderful’s Mosaic emerges as a timely and essential tool, providing clarity, agility, and unprecedented simplicity. Mosaic elevates EDI, providing businesses with a streamlined and efficient pathway to rapidly integrate, adapt, and scale in today's dynamic market. “Mosaic wouldn’t have been possible to build even three years ago. The work our team has put in has been extraordinary, combining cutting edge AI techniques with our deep experience with EDI and our rich library of trading partner guidelines and requirements,” said Benish. To learn more about how Mosaic can transform your EDI capabilities and streamline your integration processes or request a demonstration at <a href="https://www.orderful.com/product/mosaic" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">www.orderful.com/product/mosaic</a>.

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From 1940s Roots to AI-Driven Future: Reinventing EDI for Today's Supply Chains

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<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Intermodal marketing companies have long been at a disadvantage because rail-owned containers lacked the real-time tracking and tracing capabilities that are standard among private fleets.</div>

Intermodal marketing companies have long been at a disadvantage because rail-owned containers lacked the real-time tracking and tracing capabilities that are standard among private fleets.

<div class="phx-topic">A multiyear effort to install GPS devices on approximately 75,000 rail-owned intermodal containers shared among several North American Class I railroads has been completed, according to Union Pacific Railroad (UP), closing a visibility gap that gave private container owners a strategic advantage in negotiations with shippers. UP owns and operates the container fleet, which also runs on the networks of Canadian National Railway, CSX Transportation, Norfolk Southern Railway and Mexico’s Ferromex. “This is another meaningful step as we deliver the best customer experience possible,” Kenny Rocker, UP’s executive vice president of sales, said in a statement on Monday. “By combining GPS-enabled containers with real-time data and smarter visibility tools, we’re providing the transparency and reliability our customers depend on.” The rail-owned containers are a critical resource for non-asset intermodal marketing companies (IMC), which compete directly for shipper freight with private container owners such as Hub Group, J.B. Hunt Transport Services and Schneider National. IMCs have long been at a disadvantage because rail-owned containers lacked the real-time tracking and tracing capabilities that are standard among private fleets. By contrast, real-time visibility is now common across the US truckload sector. Closing that gap has taken on added importance as UP’s projections for truckload-to-rail conversions are a pillar of its <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/up-in-merger-filing-vows-to-convert-millions-of-loads-to-intermodal-annually-6138380">case before the US Surface Transportation Board</a> as it seeks approval of its proposed acquisition of Norfolk Southern. Real-time location tracking of the rail-owned boxes will be available through the Blume Global platform and will support e-mail notifications, geofencing and application programming interface (API) connectivity. The move also introduces potential risk, however, as much of the freight moving in rail-owned containers already relies on Blume Global software; the logistics technology provider was the target of a cyberattack in 2022. Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

A multiyear effort to install GPS devices on approximately 75,000 rail-owned intermodal containers shared among several North American Class I railroads has been completed, according to Union Pacific Railroad (UP), closing a visibility gap that gave private container owners a strategic advantage in negotiations with shippers. UP owns and operates the container fleet, which also runs on the networks of Canadian National Railway, CSX Transportation, Norfolk Southern Railway and Mexico’s Ferromex. “This is another meaningful step as we deliver the best customer experience possible,” Kenny Rocker, UP’s executive vice president of sales, said in a statement on Monday. “By combining GPS-enabled containers with real-time data and smarter visibility tools, we’re providing the transparency and reliability our customers depend on.” The rail-owned containers are a critical resource for non-asset intermodal marketing companies (IMC), which compete directly for shipper freight with private container owners such as Hub Group, J.B. Hunt Transport Services and Schneider National. IMCs have long been at a disadvantage because rail-owned containers lacked the real-time tracking and tracing capabilities that are standard among private fleets. By contrast, real-time visibility is now common across the US truckload sector. Closing that gap has taken on added importance as UP’s projections for truckload-to-rail conversions are a pillar of its case before the US Surface Transportation Board as it seeks approval of its proposed acquisition of Norfolk Southern. Real-time location tracking of the rail-owned boxes will be available through the Blume Global platform and will support e-mail notifications, geofencing and application programming interface (API) connectivity. The move also introduces potential risk, however, as much of the freight moving in rail-owned containers already relies on Blume Global software; the logistics technology provider was the target of a cyberattack in 2022. Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Rail News

North-American rail

North American rail container fleet fully outfitted with GPS devices

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The storm is bringing fierce winds and Arctic conditions to the region, impacting ocean, road and rail freight transport.</div>

The storm is bringing fierce winds and Arctic conditions to the region, impacting ocean, road and rail freight transport.

<div class="phx-topic">Heavy snow, ice and freezing temperatures are disrupting port and inland operations and grounding flights across Northern Europe as a winter storm hammers the region. Hundreds of flights in France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany were canceled Wednesday because of snow, high winds and icy conditions that are also affecting container terminal handling and road and rail networks. Maersk noted in an advisory that operations at key terminals, particularly in Rotterdam and Hamburg, were being disrupted. “As a result, productivity at terminals and depots has been reduced, while snow and icy road conditions are causing traffic congestion and delays for trucks,” the carrier said. “Rail services are also being affected by frozen track switches, leading to service disruptions and cancellations,” the advisory added, with the rail woes contributing to longer waiting times for import and export cargo and increasing yard congestion at hub ports in Northern Europe. <h3>Hamburg disruptions</h3>Terminal operator Eurogate is facing disruptions from snow, ice and strong winds at its Port of Hamburg facilities, but a spokesperson said its other German locations have so far been spared from the severe weather. “This may change, as the weather forecast for the coming days predicts very low temperatures, precipitation and strong winds for the whole of northern Germany,” the Eurogate spokesperson told the Journal of Commerce. “We are preparing as well as possible for these weather conditions but in some cases, we may have to pause operations.” A spokesperson for the Port of Hamburg said heavy snowfall restricted rail traffic last weekend, and while rail operations were “gradually returning to normal,” it will take time to clear backlogs. “Operations are running at the container terminals, but weather conditions are causing delays in handling across all modes of transport,” the port spokesperson said. “Winter service teams at the terminals are currently working flat out to ensure that handling operations continue as smoothly as possible.” Maersk highlighted challenging inland operating conditions in Northern Europe, warning of slower processing of trucks at Antwerp and Rotterdam, disrupted rail services between Rotterdam and Venlo, and delays between Rotterdam and Duisburg. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Heavy snow, ice and freezing temperatures are disrupting port and inland operations and grounding flights across Northern Europe as a winter storm hammers the region. Hundreds of flights in France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany were canceled Wednesday because of snow, high winds and icy conditions that are also affecting container terminal handling and road and rail networks. Maersk noted in an advisory that operations at key terminals, particularly in Rotterdam and Hamburg, were being disrupted. “As a result, productivity at terminals and depots has been reduced, while snow and icy road conditions are causing traffic congestion and delays for trucks,” the carrier said. “Rail services are also being affected by frozen track switches, leading to service disruptions and cancellations,” the advisory added, with the rail woes contributing to longer waiting times for import and export cargo and increasing yard congestion at hub ports in Northern Europe. Hamburg disruptions Terminal operator Eurogate is facing disruptions from snow, ice and strong winds at its Port of Hamburg facilities, but a spokesperson said its other German locations have so far been spared from the severe weather. “This may change, as the weather forecast for the coming days predicts very low temperatures, precipitation and strong winds for the whole of northern Germany,” the Eurogate spokesperson told the Journal of Commerce. “We are preparing as well as possible for these weather conditions but in some cases, we may have to pause operations.” A spokesperson for the Port of Hamburg said heavy snowfall restricted rail traffic last weekend, and while rail operations were “gradually returning to normal,” it will take time to clear backlogs. “Operations are running at the container terminals, but weather conditions are causing delays in handling across all modes of transport,” the port spokesperson said. “Winter service teams at the terminals are currently working flat out to ensure that handling operations continue as smoothly as possible.” Maersk highlighted challenging inland operating conditions in Northern Europe, warning of slower processing of trucks at Antwerp and Rotterdam, disrupted rail services between Rotterdam and Venlo, and delays between Rotterdam and Duisburg. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

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Marine terminals

International ports

International rail

Severe winter storm disrupts North Europe port, inland operations

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The materialization of any seasonal import rush and how carriers respond with capacity will give the container shipping market a better sense of first-half demand.</div>

The materialization of any seasonal import rush and how carriers respond with capacity will give the container shipping market a better sense of first-half demand.

<div class="phx-topic">The seasonal rush of US imports before Chinese factories idle in mid-February for Lunar New Year will be the trans-Pacific trade’s first major test of 2026, with forwarders and carriers divided on the strength of demand in a largely depressed market.  The materialization of any seasonal rush and how carriers respond with capacity will give the industry a better sense of first-half demand, reflecting restocking for post-holiday sales and demand for spring wares. The surge in shipping before Chinese production significantly slows ahead of the Lunar New Year has historically pushed up spot rates, giving carriers better standing in trans-Pacific service contracts. The National Retail Federation (NRF), in its monthly Global Port Tracker released on Friday, forecast the first month-over-month gain in import volumes (January from December) in six months, but noted that year-over-year import volumes would remain negative compared with quite strong import volumes early in 2025 as retailers frontloaded merchandise due to the expectation of higher tariffs. “There should be a brief bump in imports this month ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, but we’re otherwise headed into the post-holiday shopping lull that comes each year,” Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said in a statement accompanying the group’s import forecast. Monthly imports are down by double digits year overyear, but, encouragingly, bookings for Asia exports to North America have held up in the last two months, according to data from maritime visibility provider Vizion and data and analytics company Dun &amp; Bradstreet. Weekly Asia export bookings to the West Coast of North America began rising in December from November, averaging more than 150,000 TEUs a week on a four-week average compared with 77,000-80,000 TEUs per week in the prior month, according to the data. According to the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, which forecast the vessel arrivals and TEUs they will handle several weeks in advance, import volumes are peaking at the port complex at about 220,000 TEUs during the week of Jan. 4 and about 210,000 TEUs for the week of Jan. 11. Imports of 200,000 TEUs-plus represent a solid week in the largest US gateway. Imports are forecast to drop over the subsequent three weeks to about 175,000 TEUs, which is considered a normal seasonal lull, before returning to higher levels beginning in mid-February as freight that was loaded just prior to Lunar New Year lands. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="7f641553-97ec-4014-8e54-fef6408538d9"></dynamic-object></div>The timing of the pre-Lunar New Year cargo surge is affected this year by the later-than-usual holiday in Asia, which falls on Feb. 17. As a result, imports will likely increase in February and continue through the end of the month. The only question is the magnitude of the cargo spike. Even though many forwarders do not see a “surge” this year similar to the trans-Pacific surge experienced in January–February 2025, they say a modest increase in import volumes compared with last month is likely leading up to the factory closures in Asia. “There is no catalyst [for a surge],” one forwarder told the Journal of Commerce. “Importers are filling current orders, but they’re not pulling forward inventory.” According to the December Logistics Managers’ Report, the index reading was 54.2, down from November’s 55.7. “This is the lowest rate of expansion since April of 2024,” the report said. “I don’t see much inventory-building since the beginning of the year,” said Serkan Kavas, executive vice president for imports at the forwarder MTS Logistics. Ken O’Brien, president and CEO of Gemini Shippers Group, said the members of the group saw single-digit year-over-year declines in volumes in the fourth quarter due to the comparatively strong import volumes in 2024, although Gemini forecasts a 2% to 5% increase in trade growth in 2026. Industry adviser David Bennett said he is upbeat about the trans-Pacific market in the new year because he believes the largest US trade lane is normalizing back to the seasonal peaks and valleys the trade was accustomed to before the pandemic five years ago. “We have forgotten what that is like,” he said. “I see a nice pickup in volumes developing.” <h3>Spot rates higher </h3>Despite the year-over-year decline in imports this fall, trans-Pacific carriers were nevertheless successful in implementing a series of bi-monthly general rate increases (GRIs). Industry analysts and forwarders say carriers over the last several months have been able to keep a floor under spot rates through a combination of blank sailings and discipline because they agree a rate war would help neither carriers nor their customers. Resisting the urge to slash freight-all-kinds rates while consistently pepping up general rates increases has allowed carriers to push up spot rates and then watch them glide down. In the last four weeks, carriers’ strategy has produced a double-digit surge on a scale not seen since last summer’s rush. Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, pegged North Asia-US West Coast spot rates at $2,175 per FEU as of Thursday, up almost 42% from $1,270 per FEU on Dec. 12. The East Coast rate of $3,175 per FEU is up 33% over the past four weeks. The World Container Index as assessed by Drewry pegged Shanghai-to-Los Angeles rates at $3,132 per FEU as of Thursday, up from $2,103 on Dec. 11. However, a proposed Jan. 1 GRI is not holding, a carrier executive told the Journal of Commerce this week. “Bookings are not really strong. There is no space shortage,” the carrier executive said. Nevertheless, spot rates are considered by carriers and their customers to be at levels that should not push down pricing in the 2026–27 service contract negotiations that will ramp up in intensity this month and next. That’s because spot rates are well above the current 2025–26 contract rates that were negotiated by midsize shippers last spring. Those contracts were priced about $1,700 to $1,850 per FEU to the West Coast and about $1,000 per FEU higher to the East Coast. Still, given the muted demand compared with last year in the trans-Pacific, the environment appears to favor the customers. “Aggregate supply is up. Supply is going up more than demand,” O’Brien said. “That is the reality.” Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>.Contact Mark Szakonyi at <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com">mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The seasonal rush of US imports before Chinese factories idle in mid-February for Lunar New Year will be the trans-Pacific trade’s first major test of 2026, with forwarders and carriers divided on the strength of demand in a largely depressed market.  The materialization of any seasonal rush and how carriers respond with capacity will give the industry a better sense of first-half demand, reflecting restocking for post-holiday sales and demand for spring wares. The surge in shipping before Chinese production significantly slows ahead of the Lunar New Year has historically pushed up spot rates, giving carriers better standing in trans-Pacific service contracts. The National Retail Federation (NRF), in its monthly Global Port Tracker released on Friday, forecast the first month-over-month gain in import volumes (January from December) in six months, but noted that year-over-year import volumes would remain negative compared with quite strong import volumes early in 2025 as retailers frontloaded merchandise due to the expectation of higher tariffs. “There should be a brief bump in imports this month ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, but we’re otherwise headed into the post-holiday shopping lull that comes each year,” Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said in a statement accompanying the group’s import forecast. Monthly imports are down by double digits year overyear, but, encouragingly, bookings for Asia exports to North America have held up in the last two months, according to data from maritime visibility provider Vizion and data and analytics company Dun & Bradstreet. Weekly Asia export bookings to the West Coast of North America began rising in December from November, averaging more than 150,000 TEUs a week on a four-week average compared with 77,000-80,000 TEUs per week in the prior month, according to the data. According to the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, which forecast the vessel arrivals and TEUs they will handle several weeks in advance, import volumes are peaking at the port complex at about 220,000 TEUs during the week of Jan. 4 and about 210,000 TEUs for the week of Jan. 11. Imports of 200,000 TEUs-plus represent a solid week in the largest US gateway. Imports are forecast to drop over the subsequent three weeks to about 175,000 TEUs, which is considered a normal seasonal lull, before returning to higher levels beginning in mid-February as freight that was loaded just prior to Lunar New Year lands. The timing of the pre-Lunar New Year cargo surge is affected this year by the later-than-usual holiday in Asia, which falls on Feb. 17. As a result, imports will likely increase in February and continue through the end of the month. The only question is the magnitude of the cargo spike. Even though many forwarders do not see a “surge” this year similar to the trans-Pacific surge experienced in January–February 2025, they say a modest increase in import volumes compared with last month is likely leading up to the factory closures in Asia. “There is no catalyst [for a surge],” one forwarder told the Journal of Commerce. “Importers are filling current orders, but they’re not pulling forward inventory.” According to the December Logistics Managers’ Report, the index reading was 54.2, down from November’s 55.7. “This is the lowest rate of expansion since April of 2024,” the report said. “I don’t see much inventory-building since the beginning of the year,” said Serkan Kavas, executive vice president for imports at the forwarder MTS Logistics. Ken O’Brien, president and CEO of Gemini Shippers Group, said the members of the group saw single-digit year-over-year declines in volumes in the fourth quarter due to the comparatively strong import volumes in 2024, although Gemini forecasts a 2% to 5% increase in trade growth in 2026. Industry adviser David Bennett said he is upbeat about the trans-Pacific market in the new year because he believes the largest US trade lane is normalizing back to the seasonal peaks and valleys the trade was accustomed to before the pandemic five years ago. “We have forgotten what that is like,” he said. “I see a nice pickup in volumes developing.” Spot rates higher Despite the year-over-year decline in imports this fall, trans-Pacific carriers were nevertheless successful in implementing a series of bi-monthly general rate increases (GRIs). Industry analysts and forwarders say carriers over the last several months have been able to keep a floor under spot rates through a combination of blank sailings and discipline because they agree a rate war would help neither carriers nor their customers. Resisting the urge to slash freight-all-kinds rates while consistently pepping up general rates increases has allowed carriers to push up spot rates and then watch them glide down. In the last four weeks, carriers’ strategy has produced a double-digit surge on a scale not seen since last summer’s rush. Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, pegged North Asia-US West Coast spot rates at $2,175 per FEU as of Thursday, up almost 42% from $1,270 per FEU on Dec. 12. The East Coast rate of $3,175 per FEU is up 33% over the past four weeks. The World Container Index as assessed by Drewry pegged Shanghai-to-Los Angeles rates at $3,132 per FEU as of Thursday, up from $2,103 on Dec. 11. However, a proposed Jan. 1 GRI is not holding, a carrier executive told the Journal of Commerce this week. “Bookings are not really strong. There is no space shortage,” the carrier executive said. Nevertheless, spot rates are considered by carriers and their customers to be at levels that should not push down pricing in the 2026–27 service contract negotiations that will ramp up in intensity this month and next. That’s because spot rates are well above the current 2025–26 contract rates that were negotiated by midsize shippers last spring. Those contracts were priced about $1,700 to $1,850 per FEU to the West Coast and about $1,000 per FEU higher to the East Coast. Still, given the muted demand compared with last year in the trans-Pacific, the environment appears to favor the customers. “Aggregate supply is up. Supply is going up more than demand,” O’Brien said. “That is the reality.” Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .Contact Mark Szakonyi at  mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com .

Forwarding

Trans-Pacific

Pre-Lunar New Year demand to give trans-Pac market first test of 2026

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">With inflation increasing, consumer confidence declining and unemployment on the rise, US imports from Asia are not expected to see the typical pre-Lunar New Year surge in January and February.</div>

With inflation increasing, consumer confidence declining and unemployment on the rise, US imports from Asia are not expected to see the typical pre-Lunar New Year surge in January and February.

<div class="phx-topic">The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook. The big picture: Container gateways on the US West Coast in 2025 were able to hold onto market share gained in 2024 as importers frontloading seasonal merchandise from Asia due to tariff uncertainties took advantage of transit times that are at least two weeks shorter than East Coast routings. West Coast gateways remained relatively free from congestion throughout the year, and those conditions are likely to continue given the weak import volumes forecast for the first quarter of 2026. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6144851_0.1.jpg"></img></div>A look back: Similar to the wider trans-Pacific market, US West Coast ports benefited from tariff-related frontloading in the first half of 2025, but that growth turned to double-digit percentage declines in the fall. Amid the roller-coaster demand movements, the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland and the Northwest Seaport Alliance of Seattle and Tacoma handled 59.2% of US imports from Asia through November, exactly the same share as in the first 11 months of 2024, according to PIERS, a Journal of Commerce sister product within S&amp;P Global. To handle the somewhat volatile swings in volumes — a record 1.2 million TEUs of laden imports crossed West Coast terminal docks in July, for example — port stakeholders continued to incorporate the lessons they learned during the COVID-19 pandemic. Improved shipment forecasts and information sharing among carriers, marine terminals, truckers, chassis providers, railroads and warehouses resulted in lower truck turn and container dwell times at the marine terminals and fluid operations at warehouses and inland rail terminals. A look ahead: Cargo volumes at West Coast ports in 2026 will likely be impacted by macroeconomic forces in the US. With inflation increasing, consumer confidence declining and unemployment on the rise, US imports from Asia are not expected to see the typical pre-Lunar New Year surge in January and February. And unless some clarity and predictability in the Trump administration’s tariff policies are forthcoming, retailers are likely to be conservative in ordering spring and summer merchandise, extending year-over-year declines in West Coast imports through the first half of 2026. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="c328e2d6-c694-4af5-b0bb-86af8cec1ba4"></dynamic-object></div>Meanwhile, cargo owners, terminal operators and truckers in Southern California will be keeping a close eye on a lengthy bridge redecking project slated to begin in January. Located at the entry to Los Angeles harbor, the 63-year-old Vincent Thomas Bridge handles 53,000 vehicles a day, including about 3,400 heavy-duty trucks, according to the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans). Traffic disruptions are anticipated throughout the redecking project, which will require one-directional bridge closures through November followed by a full shutdown from November 2026 to March 2028. Although Caltrans has implemented an alternative route for truck and vehicular traffic and an information network with real-time updates on detours and delays, stakeholders remain concerned about roadway congestion potentially backing up to the terminals. The next inflection: If container lines return to the Suez Canal, East and Gulf coast ports could regain some of the market share they lost to the West Coast in the past two years. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook. The big picture: Container gateways on the US West Coast in 2025 were able to hold onto market share gained in 2024 as importers frontloading seasonal merchandise from Asia due to tariff uncertainties took advantage of transit times that are at least two weeks shorter than East Coast routings. West Coast gateways remained relatively free from congestion throughout the year, and those conditions are likely to continue given the weak import volumes forecast for the first quarter of 2026. A look back: Similar to the wider trans-Pacific market, US West Coast ports benefited from tariff-related frontloading in the first half of 2025, but that growth turned to double-digit percentage declines in the fall. Amid the roller-coaster demand movements, the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland and the Northwest Seaport Alliance of Seattle and Tacoma handled 59.2% of US imports from Asia through November, exactly the same share as in the first 11 months of 2024, according to PIERS, a Journal of Commerce sister product within S&P Global. To handle the somewhat volatile swings in volumes — a record 1.2 million TEUs of laden imports crossed West Coast terminal docks in July, for example — port stakeholders continued to incorporate the lessons they learned during the COVID-19 pandemic. Improved shipment forecasts and information sharing among carriers, marine terminals, truckers, chassis providers, railroads and warehouses resulted in lower truck turn and container dwell times at the marine terminals and fluid operations at warehouses and inland rail terminals. A look ahead: Cargo volumes at West Coast ports in 2026 will likely be impacted by macroeconomic forces in the US. With inflation increasing, consumer confidence declining and unemployment on the rise, US imports from Asia are not expected to see the typical pre-Lunar New Year surge in January and February. And unless some clarity and predictability in the Trump administration’s tariff policies are forthcoming, retailers are likely to be conservative in ordering spring and summer merchandise, extending year-over-year declines in West Coast imports through the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, cargo owners, terminal operators and truckers in Southern California will be keeping a close eye on a lengthy bridge redecking project slated to begin in January. Located at the entry to Los Angeles harbor, the 63-year-old Vincent Thomas Bridge handles 53,000 vehicles a day, including about 3,400 heavy-duty trucks, according to the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans). Traffic disruptions are anticipated throughout the redecking project, which will require one-directional bridge closures through November followed by a full shutdown from November 2026 to March 2028. Although Caltrans has implemented an alternative route for truck and vehicular traffic and an information network with real-time updates on detours and delays, stakeholders remain concerned about roadway congestion potentially backing up to the terminals. The next inflection: If container lines return to the Suez Canal, East and Gulf coast ports could regain some of the market share they lost to the West Coast in the past two years. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .

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