<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The declines from the country’s top three carriers are in line with what other carriers have reported thus far in an unsettled container shipping market.</div>

The declines from the country’s top three carriers are in line with what other carriers have reported thus far in an unsettled container shipping market.

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<div class="phx-topic">Taiwan's big three carriers saw revenue slide last year as weaker freight rates and cargo volumes took their toll on operating revenues. Evergreen Marine, the largest of the three, saw 2025 revenue fall 18% to $12 billion from almost $15 billion in 2024, it said in a stock exchange filing Thursday. Yang Ming, Taiwan’s second-largest carrier, reported the biggest drop, saying Friday that 2025 revenue fell 27% to $5.3 billion against $7 billion in the year prior. Intra-Asia focused Wan Hai Lines posted a 13% decline in 2025 revenue to $4.5 billion, it said in a filing Friday. The carriers gave no further details, as profit figures will be released as part of their formal annual results announcements in the next few months. But the revenue declines are thus far in line with the 2025 results of other carriers, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/fourth-quarter-downturn-weighs-on-oocls-full-year-operating-result-6149730">with OOCL saying Friday</a> its revenue of $8.7 billion last year was down 10.6%. Trans-Pacific services were the biggest revenue generators for all three Taiwanese carriers last year. But indicative of the rate declines that hit their revenues, Shanghai Shipping Exchange data carried on the Journal of Commerce’s Gateway platform shows spot rates from Shanghai to the US West Coast tumbled 56% over the course of the year to end at $2,188 per FEU as of Jan. 2. Yang Ming in its filing indicated a pre-Lunar New Year cargo rush was driving volumes higher and supporting a rebound in revenues as 2026 began, momentum it expects to continue ahead of the holiday in mid-February. Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com.</a></div>

Taiwan's big three carriers saw revenue slide last year as weaker freight rates and cargo volumes took their toll on operating revenues. Evergreen Marine, the largest of the three, saw 2025 revenue fall 18% to $12 billion from almost $15 billion in 2024, it said in a stock exchange filing Thursday. Yang Ming, Taiwan’s second-largest carrier, reported the biggest drop, saying Friday that 2025 revenue fell 27% to $5.3 billion against $7 billion in the year prior. Intra-Asia focused Wan Hai Lines posted a 13% decline in 2025 revenue to $4.5 billion, it said in a filing Friday. The carriers gave no further details, as profit figures will be released as part of their formal annual results announcements in the next few months. But the revenue declines are thus far in line with the 2025 results of other carriers, with OOCL saying Friday its revenue of $8.7 billion last year was down 10.6%. Trans-Pacific services were the biggest revenue generators for all three Taiwanese carriers last year. But indicative of the rate declines that hit their revenues, Shanghai Shipping Exchange data carried on the Journal of Commerce’s Gateway platform shows spot rates from Shanghai to the US West Coast tumbled 56% over the course of the year to end at $2,188 per FEU as of Jan. 2. Yang Ming in its filing indicated a pre-Lunar New Year cargo rush was driving volumes higher and supporting a rebound in revenues as 2026 began, momentum it expects to continue ahead of the holiday in mid-February. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com.

Container lines

Trans-Pacific

Container Shipping News

Maritime

Taiwan’s major ocean carriers say weaker rates dragged down 2025 revenues

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Seasonal fog along Texas waterways has caused ocean carriers to switch up typical Gulf Coast port rotations, sometimes with little warning of vessel arrivals.</div>

Seasonal fog along Texas waterways has caused ocean carriers to switch up typical Gulf Coast port rotations, sometimes with little warning of vessel arrivals.

<div class="phx-topic">Seasonal fog along the US Gulf Coast is delaying container ship arrivals to the Port of Houston and prompting diversions to Mobile. But shippers out of Mobile say they are only getting last-minute warnings of the diversions, giving them little time to ready their freight and causing further delays as export containers miss their cutoff day. Houston, the busiest port in the US when all types of ship traffic are considered, including tankers and bulkers, typically experiences fog during the winter months. While it’s unclear if this season’s fog episodes are more frequent or of longer duration, more container ships are having to wait longer to berth due to the fog. During the month of December, Houston had 21 container ships sit at anchor with an average delay of four days, according to Sea-web, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. During the holiday period, some ships were seeing five-day dwells at anchorage. The delays are spilling into 2026, with CMA CGM warning in an advisory this week of “building vessel congestion and dwell due to dense fog and seasonal holiday terminal closures.” <h3>Opting for Mobile </h3>Instead of waiting out the fog, ocean carriers are reversing typical port rotations for Gulf Coast services by calling Mobile first, then Houston. Since December, at least nine container ships that previously had a Houston-to-Mobile rotation instead made Mobile the first call, Sea-web data shows. Another four container ships that were not on regular deployment to the Gulf Coast also made Mobile-to-Houston rotations. Maersk rotated four ships to Mobile ahead of Houston during the period, while three Mediterranean Shipping Co. vessels and two CMA CGM ships made similar rotations. Evergreen Marine, Ocean Network Express, HMM and Yang Ming also followed a Mobile-to-Houston rotation. In many instances, though, shippers tell the Journal of Commerce they have only been given one-day notice of the schedule changes and vessel arrivals. That’s been especially difficult for exporters, who typically have a window of about a week to prepare an export container and bring it to the port. The director of global logistics for a Houston-based chemicals manufacturer that ships about 20,000 containers annually, primarily out of Mobile, said ships that he’s booked export freight on have arrived about a week ahead of schedule, well ahead of when his company has been able to stuff a container and find a trucker to move the box. ”We’ve missed the cutoff date on several voyages,” the source said, estimating that the early arrivals into Mobile have impacted about 800 of his company’s export containers since December. “We’re scrambling the day of the cutoff,” he said. “You can’t tell me that day to have the container ready.” As a result of the missed cutoff, his cargo is being rolled to later voyages. But since space is already booked on those voyages and other shippers have rolled cargo, the source said vessel capacity to certain regions, such as Southeast Asia, has tightened. “I’m not the only guy who has production that needs to get out,” he said. <h3>Carrier communication ‘not proactive’</h3>A Jacksonville-based ocean freight forwarder said one of his clients, a wood products company in Mississippi, ships between 20 and 30 containers per week out of Mobile. While some of that freight is already positioned at Mobile for export, the one-day cutoffs for ships means his client is having to find space at their facility to store already-loaded export containers that missed a vessel.“It’s like a big game of Jenga,” the forwarder said. “It takes time to stuff and stage these containers. Now you’ve got to move these back to your warehouse and repeat the process.” Other complications ensue because of the missed vessels, the source said. Export wood products may require a USDA certification that the product is pest-free. But the certification is only valid for a limited time, requiring a second certification if the product has not yet been exported. As for the communication from ocean carriers about the schedule changes: “They are not proactive,” the forwarder said. Maersk and CMA CGM did not respond to a request for comment about how they communicate schedule changes to shippers.In a statement to the Journal of Commerce, Port Houston Authority said it is supporting a bill introduced last year by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Rep. Brian Babin (R–Texas) that would direct the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to expand observation and improve the forecasting of fog events that impact maritime navigation. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a> </div>

Seasonal fog along the US Gulf Coast is delaying container ship arrivals to the Port of Houston and prompting diversions to Mobile. But shippers out of Mobile say they are only getting last-minute warnings of the diversions, giving them little time to ready their freight and causing further delays as export containers miss their cutoff day. Houston, the busiest port in the US when all types of ship traffic are considered, including tankers and bulkers, typically experiences fog during the winter months. While it’s unclear if this season’s fog episodes are more frequent or of longer duration, more container ships are having to wait longer to berth due to the fog. During the month of December, Houston had 21 container ships sit at anchor with an average delay of four days, according to Sea-web, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. During the holiday period, some ships were seeing five-day dwells at anchorage. The delays are spilling into 2026, with CMA CGM warning in an advisory this week of “building vessel congestion and dwell due to dense fog and seasonal holiday terminal closures.” Opting for Mobile Instead of waiting out the fog, ocean carriers are reversing typical port rotations for Gulf Coast services by calling Mobile first, then Houston. Since December, at least nine container ships that previously had a Houston-to-Mobile rotation instead made Mobile the first call, Sea-web data shows. Another four container ships that were not on regular deployment to the Gulf Coast also made Mobile-to-Houston rotations. Maersk rotated four ships to Mobile ahead of Houston during the period, while three Mediterranean Shipping Co. vessels and two CMA CGM ships made similar rotations. Evergreen Marine, Ocean Network Express, HMM and Yang Ming also followed a Mobile-to-Houston rotation. In many instances, though, shippers tell the Journal of Commerce they have only been given one-day notice of the schedule changes and vessel arrivals. That’s been especially difficult for exporters, who typically have a window of about a week to prepare an export container and bring it to the port. The director of global logistics for a Houston-based chemicals manufacturer that ships about 20,000 containers annually, primarily out of Mobile, said ships that he’s booked export freight on have arrived about a week ahead of schedule, well ahead of when his company has been able to stuff a container and find a trucker to move the box. ”We’ve missed the cutoff date on several voyages,” the source said, estimating that the early arrivals into Mobile have impacted about 800 of his company’s export containers since December. “We’re scrambling the day of the cutoff,” he said. “You can’t tell me that day to have the container ready.” As a result of the missed cutoff, his cargo is being rolled to later voyages. But since space is already booked on those voyages and other shippers have rolled cargo, the source said vessel capacity to certain regions, such as Southeast Asia, has tightened. “I’m not the only guy who has production that needs to get out,” he said. Carrier communication ‘not proactive’ A Jacksonville-based ocean freight forwarder said one of his clients, a wood products company in Mississippi, ships between 20 and 30 containers per week out of Mobile. While some of that freight is already positioned at Mobile for export, the one-day cutoffs for ships means his client is having to find space at their facility to store already-loaded export containers that missed a vessel. “It’s like a big game of Jenga,” the forwarder said. “It takes time to stuff and stage these containers. Now you’ve got to move these back to your warehouse and repeat the process.” Other complications ensue because of the missed vessels, the source said. Export wood products may require a USDA certification that the product is pest-free. But the certification is only valid for a limited time, requiring a second certification if the product has not yet been exported. As for the communication from ocean carriers about the schedule changes: “They are not proactive,” the forwarder said. Maersk and CMA CGM did not respond to a request for comment about how they communicate schedule changes to shippers. In a statement to the Journal of Commerce, Port Houston Authority said it is supporting a bill introduced last year by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Rep. Brian Babin (R–Texas) that would direct the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to expand observation and improve the forecasting of fog events that impact maritime navigation. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com

North American ports

Houston fog sets up ship diversions to Mobile, forcing exporters to scramble

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">This year’s positive MPV forecast is bolstered by a high level of forward bookings and the prospect of postponed projects coming onstream. </div>

This year’s positive MPV forecast is bolstered by a high level of forward bookings and the prospect of postponed projects coming onstream.

<div class="phx-topic">An optimistic outlook for the multipurpose sector in 2026 is underpinned by a well-utilized fleet, revivals of postponed high-capacity projects, and a reportedly healthy level of forward bookings. Yorck Niclas Prehm, head of research at specialist shipbroker Toepfer Transport, said multipurpose vessel (MPV) operators with highly specialized vessels can look forward to an “even more comfortable” 2026. With super-heavy-lift vessels and vessels with offshore installation capabilities almost fully booked for 2026, operators are now focused on bookings for 2027 and 2028. In comments for the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook, Prehm said the multipurpose and breakbulk shipping market in 2025 was “characterized by minimal volatility and a stable and steady behavior of freight and charter rates.” Prehm added that while this could be viewed as “a rather boring development,” considering the economic and geopolitical challenges the shipping industry and global supply chains faced in 2025, the stability underscores how “extraordinarily strong and resilient this niche market is.” The foundation for this stability was the constraint on ordering exercised by owners and operators in the sector last year, Prehm said. In its end-of-year quarterly report, Toepfer Transport noted the order book for MPVs is “relatively moderate,” with total fleet growth in 2025 of 2.4% by deadweight tons, or 19 ships net. For freight rate assessments, the Toepfer Multipurpose Index for January, published Thursday, is $12,648 per day, down from $12,818 in December. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="eb684173-3331-459c-8c00-85ae47522402"></dynamic-object></div><h3>Positive outlook for year ahead </h3>Toepfer’s upbeat assessment for 2026 was echoed by Ulrich Ulrichs, CEO of MPV operator BBC Chartering. In comments for the Journal of Commerce’s Annual Review and Outlook, Ulrichs described his outlook for the breakbulk and project cargo sector in 2026 as positive. “Supply and demand in our sector appear to be reasonably balanced, and the number of newbuildings for the multipurpose vessel sector remains sparse,” Ulrichs said. New orders are for more efficient tonnage, phasing out older tonnage with no overcapacity being generated. In terms of cargo demand, Ulrichs said BBC is focused on the “dominant drivers” of energy-related cargoes from both the wind turbine sector and the oil and gas and mining sectors. However, he raised concerns about the offshore wind sector, “the success — or otherwise — of which is entirely due to political decision-making.” Regulations and geopolitics will continue to buffet the MPV sector in 2026, characterized by an “increasingly unpredictable” US market and “complex and region-specific regulations,” including the European Union Emissions Trading System and FuelEU Maritime, Ulrichs said. “While these initiatives aim to reduce environmental impact, their implementation has introduced significant operational and financial challenges — especially for carriers operating across multiple jurisdictions,” he said. Ulrichs called for a single, global, and transparent set of rules to reduce administrative overhead for MPV operations, level the playing field, and encourage broader compliance. Contact Carly Fields at <a href="mailto:carly.fields@spglobal.com">carly.fields@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

An optimistic outlook for the multipurpose sector in 2026 is underpinned by a well-utilized fleet, revivals of postponed high-capacity projects, and a reportedly healthy level of forward bookings. Yorck Niclas Prehm, head of research at specialist shipbroker Toepfer Transport, said multipurpose vessel (MPV) operators with highly specialized vessels can look forward to an “even more comfortable” 2026. With super-heavy-lift vessels and vessels with offshore installation capabilities almost fully booked for 2026, operators are now focused on bookings for 2027 and 2028. In comments for the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook, Prehm said the multipurpose and breakbulk shipping market in 2025 was “characterized by minimal volatility and a stable and steady behavior of freight and charter rates.” Prehm added that while this could be viewed as “a rather boring development,” considering the economic and geopolitical challenges the shipping industry and global supply chains faced in 2025, the stability underscores how “extraordinarily strong and resilient this niche market is.” The foundation for this stability was the constraint on ordering exercised by owners and operators in the sector last year, Prehm said. In its end-of-year quarterly report, Toepfer Transport noted the order book for MPVs is “relatively moderate,” with total fleet growth in 2025 of 2.4% by deadweight tons, or 19 ships net. For freight rate assessments, the Toepfer Multipurpose Index for January, published Thursday, is $12,648 per day, down from $12,818 in December. Positive outlook for year ahead Toepfer’s upbeat assessment for 2026 was echoed by Ulrich Ulrichs, CEO of MPV operator BBC Chartering. In comments for the Journal of Commerce’s Annual Review and Outlook, Ulrichs described his outlook for the breakbulk and project cargo sector in 2026 as positive. “Supply and demand in our sector appear to be reasonably balanced, and the number of newbuildings for the multipurpose vessel sector remains sparse,” Ulrichs said. New orders are for more efficient tonnage, phasing out older tonnage with no overcapacity being generated. In terms of cargo demand, Ulrichs said BBC is focused on the “dominant drivers” of energy-related cargoes from both the wind turbine sector and the oil and gas and mining sectors. However, he raised concerns about the offshore wind sector, “the success — or otherwise — of which is entirely due to political decision-making.” Regulations and geopolitics will continue to buffet the MPV sector in 2026, characterized by an “increasingly unpredictable” US market and “complex and region-specific regulations,” including the European Union Emissions Trading System and FuelEU Maritime, Ulrichs said. “While these initiatives aim to reduce environmental impact, their implementation has introduced significant operational and financial challenges — especially for carriers operating across multiple jurisdictions,” he said. Ulrichs called for a single, global, and transparent set of rules to reduce administrative overhead for MPV operations, level the playing field, and encourage broader compliance. Contact Carly Fields at carly.fields@spglobal.com .

Breakbulk News

Optimistic outlook sets multipurpose sector on firm footing for 2026

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The performance of the Cosco Shipping subsidiary provides an early glimpse of what to expect as ocean carriers prepare to report their full-year 2025 earnings in an uncertain container shipping market. </div>

The performance of the Cosco Shipping subsidiary provides an early glimpse of what to expect as ocean carriers prepare to report their full-year 2025 earnings in an uncertain container shipping market.

<div class="phx-topic">Weakening demand and falling rates on OOCL’s major trade lanes through the fourth quarter weighed heavily on the carrier’s full-year operating result announced Friday. The performance of the Hong Kong-based subsidiary of Cosco Shipping provides an early glimpse of what to expect as ocean carriers prepare to report their full-year 2025 earnings in an uncertain container shipping market. Solid earnings in the first three quarters of 2025 have ensured most carriers will report a profitable year — Drewry Shipping Consultants has forecast a combined $20 billion in profits — but the difficult fourth-quarter operating environment was reflected in OOCL’s revenue and volume. No profit and loss figures were disclosed by OOCL in its operating result. OOCL reported fourth-quarter revenue of $2.08 billion, a 17.2% year-over-year decline across its major trade lanes, while Q4 volume rose just 0.8% to 2 million TEUs. Available capacity increased 4.5% and average revenue per TEU plunged 17.8% compared to the 2024 fourth quarter. From a trade lane perspective, trans-Pacific revenue in Q4 was down 25% year over year at $726 million, with volume down 4.2% at 528,394 TEUs. Asia-Europe revenue fell 24.5% to $418 million while volume edged up 1.3% to 367,728 TEUs. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="ea023e46-41d8-4790-b614-6af084fc81ec"></dynamic-object></div>OOCL’s largest trade lane, which combines Australasia with intra-Asia, saw revenue fall 6.8% to $772 million in the fourth quarter while volume rose 2.4% to 974,653 TEUs. The trans-Atlantic, the smallest of the carrier’s major trades, reported flat revenue of $163 million in Q4 and an 8.8% increase in volume to 130,231 TEUs. For the full year, OOCL revenue of $8.7 billion declined 10.6% year over year against volume that increased 3.7% to 7.8 million TEUs. Available capacity for the year was up 6.1% and average revenue per TEU dropped 13.7% year over year. Full-year revenue on the trans-Pacific of $3.2 billion was down 17.2% year over year, with volume up 1.7% at 2.1 million TEUs. Asia-Europe revenue came in at $1.8 billion, down 21.3%, and volume was flat at 1.4 million TEUs. Intra-Asia/Australasia revenue of $3 billion was up 1.2% and volume grew 4.8% to 3.8 million TEUs, while trans-Atlantic revenue increased 14.9% to $708 million and volume also rose 14.9% to 550,765 TEUs. <h3>Supply-demand imbalance hangs over market </h3>As carriers enter the new year, they will be buoyed by sharply increasing rates on the east-west trades out of Asia as shippers get their cargo on the water ahead of a relatively late start to the Lunar New Year on Feb. 17. Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, pegged North Asia-US West Coast spot rates at $2,175 per FEU of Thursday, up from $1,270 per FEU on Dec. 12. Asia-North Europe rates of $2,700 per FEU this week are up from $2,440 per FEU four weeks ago. The World Container Index as assessed by Drewry pegged Shanghai-to-Los Angeles rates at $3,132 per FEU as of Thursday, up from $2,103 on Dec. 11. Shanghai-to-Rotterdam rates at $2,840 per FEU were up from $2,361 per FEU over the same period, according to Drewry. But with significant newbuilding capacity being added to the market, analysts expect excess tonnage to exert downwards pressure on rates. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="300082c3-330d-45f1-b9d8-9a63e1bb82b4"></dynamic-object></div>“A traditional pre-Lunar New Year cargo rush at the start of the 2026 is a key driver behind dramatic increases in spot rates out of the Far East that are up almost 60% into the US West Coast compared to a month ago,” Peter Sand, chief analyst at rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, wrote in a market update this week. “With Lunar New Year just over a month away, shippers will ramp up efforts to get goods out of the Far East before the holiday shutdown, so there will be further upward pressure on rates,” Sand added. “The question is whether the expected increase in deployed capacity will be enough to outweigh higher demand.” That question extends far beyond the first quarter of 2026. The full-year earnings prognosis is not positive for carriers, with analysts predicting that a growing imbalance between supply and demand will <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/supply-demand-imbalance-puts-ocean-carriers-on-course-for-heavy-losses-6143218">bring container shipping’s five-year run of profitability to an end</a>. With vessel capacity outstripping volumes on the major trade lanes, analysts expect carriers to fall into the red as early as the first quarter, culminating in a multi-billion-dollar combined loss for the full year. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com.</a></div>

Weakening demand and falling rates on OOCL’s major trade lanes through the fourth quarter weighed heavily on the carrier’s full-year operating result announced Friday. The performance of the Hong Kong-based subsidiary of Cosco Shipping provides an early glimpse of what to expect as ocean carriers prepare to report their full-year 2025 earnings in an uncertain container shipping market. Solid earnings in the first three quarters of 2025 have ensured most carriers will report a profitable year — Drewry Shipping Consultants has forecast a combined $20 billion in profits — but the difficult fourth-quarter operating environment was reflected in OOCL’s revenue and volume. No profit and loss figures were disclosed by OOCL in its operating result. OOCL reported fourth-quarter revenue of $2.08 billion, a 17.2% year-over-year decline across its major trade lanes, while Q4 volume rose just 0.8% to 2 million TEUs. Available capacity increased 4.5% and average revenue per TEU plunged 17.8% compared to the 2024 fourth quarter. From a trade lane perspective, trans-Pacific revenue in Q4 was down 25% year over year at $726 million, with volume down 4.2% at 528,394 TEUs. Asia-Europe revenue fell 24.5% to $418 million while volume edged up 1.3% to 367,728 TEUs. OOCL’s largest trade lane, which combines Australasia with intra-Asia, saw revenue fall 6.8% to $772 million in the fourth quarter while volume rose 2.4% to 974,653 TEUs. The trans-Atlantic, the smallest of the carrier’s major trades, reported flat revenue of $163 million in Q4 and an 8.8% increase in volume to 130,231 TEUs. For the full year, OOCL revenue of $8.7 billion declined 10.6% year over year against volume that increased 3.7% to 7.8 million TEUs. Available capacity for the year was up 6.1% and average revenue per TEU dropped 13.7% year over year. Full-year revenue on the trans-Pacific of $3.2 billion was down 17.2% year over year, with volume up 1.7% at 2.1 million TEUs. Asia-Europe revenue came in at $1.8 billion, down 21.3%, and volume was flat at 1.4 million TEUs. Intra-Asia/Australasia revenue of $3 billion was up 1.2% and volume grew 4.8% to 3.8 million TEUs, while trans-Atlantic revenue increased 14.9% to $708 million and volume also rose 14.9% to 550,765 TEUs. Supply-demand imbalance hangs over market As carriers enter the new year, they will be buoyed by sharply increasing rates on the east-west trades out of Asia as shippers get their cargo on the water ahead of a relatively late start to the Lunar New Year on Feb. 17. Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, pegged North Asia-US West Coast spot rates at $2,175 per FEU of Thursday, up from $1,270 per FEU on Dec. 12. Asia-North Europe rates of $2,700 per FEU this week are up from $2,440 per FEU four weeks ago. The World Container Index as assessed by Drewry pegged Shanghai-to-Los Angeles rates at $3,132 per FEU as of Thursday, up from $2,103 on Dec. 11. Shanghai-to-Rotterdam rates at $2,840 per FEU were up from $2,361 per FEU over the same period, according to Drewry. But with significant newbuilding capacity being added to the market, analysts expect excess tonnage to exert downwards pressure on rates. “A traditional pre-Lunar New Year cargo rush at the start of the 2026 is a key driver behind dramatic increases in spot rates out of the Far East that are up almost 60% into the US West Coast compared to a month ago,” Peter Sand, chief analyst at rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, wrote in a market update this week. “With Lunar New Year just over a month away, shippers will ramp up efforts to get goods out of the Far East before the holiday shutdown, so there will be further upward pressure on rates,” Sand added. “The question is whether the expected increase in deployed capacity will be enough to outweigh higher demand.” That question extends far beyond the first quarter of 2026. The full-year earnings prognosis is not positive for carriers, with analysts predicting that a growing imbalance between supply and demand will bring container shipping’s five-year run of profitability to an end . With vessel capacity outstripping volumes on the major trade lanes, analysts expect carriers to fall into the red as early as the first quarter, culminating in a multi-billion-dollar combined loss for the full year. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com.

Asia-Europe

Fourth-quarter downturn weighs on OOCL’s full-year operating result

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The merger will see Fatton &amp; Lyseo use Ovrsea’s proprietary operating software across its air and sea customers in Asia, Africa and North America. </div>

The merger will see Fatton & Lyseo use Ovrsea’s proprietary operating software across its air and sea customers in Asia, Africa and North America.

<div class="phx-topic">French forwarding group Fatton &amp; Lyseo on Thursday said it has merged operations with Ovrsea, a digital forwarder owned by the Bolloré Group. The merger will see Fatton &amp; Lyseo, itself the combination of a 2024 merger between two French forwarders, use Ovrsea’s proprietary operating software across its air and sea customers in Asia, Africa and North America. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. Ovrsea CEO Arthur Barillas de Thé will become CEO of the joint company, with Fatton &amp; Lyseo CEO Sylvain Fatton moving into a chairman role. The combined company brings 350 million euros of revenue across 60 offices in 14 countries, with 1,000 employees. “By combining over a century of operational excellence with pioneering digital technology and talent, we are creating a unique offering and position ourselves for strong organic and external growth in the future,” Barillas de Thé said in a LinkedIn post announcing the merger. Ovrsea was founded in 2017 as part of a cohort of so-called digital forwarders such as Flexport, Forto, iContainers, Nowports, and ExFreight as a technology-focused alternative to established global third-party logistics providers (3PLs) and non-vessel-operating common carriers. Unlike most of its cohorts, Paris-based Ovrsea eschewed major investment from venture capital or private equity firms, instead selling a majority stake in 2021 to the Bolloré Group, where it served as the 3PL’s digital customer channel and operated independently. <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/bollor-backed-startup-ovrsea-expands-digital-forwarding-options-to-us-5222142">Ovrsea entered the US market</a> a year later on the basis of the relationship with Bolloré. Its customers generally move in the range of 200 to 1,000 TEUs annually. Fatton &amp; Lyseo provides ocean, air, warehousing and customs services. Contact Eric Johnson at <a href="mailto:eric.johnson@spglobal.com">eric.johnson@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

French forwarding group Fatton & Lyseo on Thursday said it has merged operations with Ovrsea, a digital forwarder owned by the Bolloré Group. The merger will see Fatton & Lyseo, itself the combination of a 2024 merger between two French forwarders, use Ovrsea’s proprietary operating software across its air and sea customers in Asia, Africa and North America. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. Ovrsea CEO Arthur Barillas de Thé will become CEO of the joint company, with Fatton & Lyseo CEO Sylvain Fatton moving into a chairman role. The combined company brings 350 million euros of revenue across 60 offices in 14 countries, with 1,000 employees. “By combining over a century of operational excellence with pioneering digital technology and talent, we are creating a unique offering and position ourselves for strong organic and external growth in the future,” Barillas de Thé said in a LinkedIn post announcing the merger. Ovrsea was founded in 2017 as part of a cohort of so-called digital forwarders such as Flexport, Forto, iContainers, Nowports, and ExFreight as a technology-focused alternative to established global third-party logistics providers (3PLs) and non-vessel-operating common carriers. Unlike most of its cohorts, Paris-based Ovrsea eschewed major investment from venture capital or private equity firms, instead selling a majority stake in 2021 to the Bolloré Group, where it served as the 3PL’s digital customer channel and operated independently. Ovrsea entered the US market a year later on the basis of the relationship with Bolloré. Its customers generally move in the range of 200 to 1,000 TEUs annually. Fatton & Lyseo provides ocean, air, warehousing and customs services. Contact Eric Johnson at eric.johnson@spglobal.com .

Logistics Technology News

Digital forwarder owned by Bolloré merges with French forwarding group

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The growth in traffic on intra-Asian routes is a result of ongoing US demand for cloud infrastructure logistics related to the rapid development of AI technology.</div>

The growth in traffic on intra-Asian routes is a result of ongoing US demand for cloud infrastructure logistics related to the rapid development of AI technology.

<div class="phx-topic">Strong US air cargo demand for high-tech and AI-related exports from Southeast Asia is having the indirect effect of placing intra-Asia capacity under mounting pressure as most flights to North America are routed via regional transit hubs. While the air cargo industry prepares for Asian export volume to rise over the next few weeks in line with seasonal demand ahead of the Lunar New Year that begins on Feb. 17, forwarders are already reporting congestion at some of the region’s key airports. Kathy Liu, vice president of global sales and marketing at Taiwan-based Dimerco Express Group, said the China-plus-one production strategy, accelerated by US tariffs last year, was strengthening intra-Asia demand. “This will further constrain intra-Asia capacity, as transit carriers are prioritizing first-leg capacity for long-haul cargo to maximize revenue,” Liu told the Journal of Commerce Thursday. “As a result, major transit hubs such as Hong Kong, Taipei, Singapore, Incheon and Narita are expected to remain highly congested.” The growth in traffic on intra-Asian routes is being accelerated by US tariffs imposed on Beijing in 2025 that led to a shift in regional trade flows through the second half of the year and drove increasing demand from Southeast Asian origins. Tobias Hofemeier, senior vice president for air logistics in greater China at Kuehne + Nagel, said there was ongoing high demand for cloud infrastructure logistics related to the rapid development of AI technology. He cited data from research and advisory firm Gartner projecting 21.3% year-over-year growth in public cloud services in 2026. “We expect continued growth in Southeast Asian countries like Thailand and Vietnam ... due to strong demand driven primarily by high tech, electronics and semiconductor cargo,” Hofemeier said. Kuehne + Nagel uses available commercial capacity on the trans-Pacific and supplements that with nine Kuehne + Nagel-dedicated flights per week from Vietnam to the US and six flights from Taiwan to the US. <h3>Freighter capacity constraints </h3>Air freight capacity data from analyst Rotate shows high growth in direct flights on the Southeast Asia-North America trade lane in the past week, but much of the cargo on that corridor is shipped indirectly to the US through Asian transit hubs. While demand increases, overall capacity, especially belly capacity on commercial flights, is projected to remain at 2025 levels because of delays in aircraft deliveries. Boeing and Airbus have been facing long delays in producing, certifying and delivering new aircraft, severely constricting the ability of airlines to grow their fleets. Another capacity-limiting factor for the industry is the grounding of all McDonnell Douglas MD-11 freighters and DC-10s following the fatal crash in Louisville, Kentucky, in November. Most of the 70 freighters are operated by FedEx and UPS (52 planes) and will be grounded indefinitely. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="a3f6b9ed-e750-40e5-8b28-b4d1703b5c40"></dynamic-object></div>Sou Ping Chee, regional head of air freight in Asia Pacific for Hellmann Worldwide Logistics, said capacity provided by commercial airlines comprised more than 80% of the global market. ”It will remain tight this year because there’s no significant additional capacity being added with few new freighter aircrafts that will be delivered this year,” he told the Journal of Commerce Thursday. But an unknown factor was how much chartered freighter capacity would return to the market this year and what impact it would have on increasing available space. Chee explained that when the US scrapped the de minimis exemption for low-value Chinese imports in May last year and demand tumbled on the trans-Pacific, many chartered freighters were redeployed to other routes. "Charters are committed for at least for a year and they had to somehow find a way to keep flying and filling their aircraft,” Chee said. “This year onwards, some of the e-commerce charter contracts will be due for renewal, so it will be interesting to see how many are renewed and how much capacity is returned to the market.” <h3>Tailwinds of growth</h3>In his latest monthly market update, Niall van de Wouw, chief air freight officer at rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, said one of the tailwinds of demand growth in 2025 came from investment linked to the development of AI solutions. But he warned that the less buoyant forward-looking signals for Chinese e-commerce exports were worrying. Despite a sharp drop in US business, China’s air freight exports are still dominated by e-commerce that comprises approximately one-third of the country’s total air cargo volume. “China’s cross-border e-commerce volumes were flat in October and November,” van de Wouw said. “If we see a third consecutive month of lower e-commerce growth out of China, that is a big signal, while duties imposed by other countries may present more unwelcome news for the air cargo market going forward.” Chinese customs data shows low-value and e-commerce exports in November rose by just 1% year over year after flatlining in October. Exports to the US represented the majority of the decline, falling 52% year over year in November after a drop of 51% in October. Before the de minimis ban imposed by Washington, China-US e-commerce accounted for approximately 3% of global air cargo volumes. China-European Union e-commerce volume continued to grow, expanding 29% in November following 47% year-over-year growth in October. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Strong US air cargo demand for high-tech and AI-related exports from Southeast Asia is having the indirect effect of placing intra-Asia capacity under mounting pressure as most flights to North America are routed via regional transit hubs. While the air cargo industry prepares for Asian export volume to rise over the next few weeks in line with seasonal demand ahead of the Lunar New Year that begins on Feb. 17, forwarders are already reporting congestion at some of the region’s key airports. Kathy Liu, vice president of global sales and marketing at Taiwan-based Dimerco Express Group, said the China-plus-one production strategy, accelerated by US tariffs last year, was strengthening intra-Asia demand. “This will further constrain intra-Asia capacity, as transit carriers are prioritizing first-leg capacity for long-haul cargo to maximize revenue,” Liu told the Journal of Commerce Thursday. “As a result, major transit hubs such as Hong Kong, Taipei, Singapore, Incheon and Narita are expected to remain highly congested.” The growth in traffic on intra-Asian routes is being accelerated by US tariffs imposed on Beijing in 2025 that led to a shift in regional trade flows through the second half of the year and drove increasing demand from Southeast Asian origins. Tobias Hofemeier, senior vice president for air logistics in greater China at Kuehne + Nagel, said there was ongoing high demand for cloud infrastructure logistics related to the rapid development of AI technology. He cited data from research and advisory firm Gartner projecting 21.3% year-over-year growth in public cloud services in 2026. “We expect continued growth in Southeast Asian countries like Thailand and Vietnam ... due to strong demand driven primarily by high tech, electronics and semiconductor cargo,” Hofemeier said. Kuehne + Nagel uses available commercial capacity on the trans-Pacific and supplements that with nine Kuehne + Nagel-dedicated flights per week from Vietnam to the US and six flights from Taiwan to the US. Freighter capacity constraints Air freight capacity data from analyst Rotate shows high growth in direct flights on the Southeast Asia-North America trade lane in the past week, but much of the cargo on that corridor is shipped indirectly to the US through Asian transit hubs. While demand increases, overall capacity, especially belly capacity on commercial flights, is projected to remain at 2025 levels because of delays in aircraft deliveries. Boeing and Airbus have been facing long delays in producing, certifying and delivering new aircraft, severely constricting the ability of airlines to grow their fleets. Another capacity-limiting factor for the industry is the grounding of all McDonnell Douglas MD-11 freighters and DC-10s following the fatal crash in Louisville, Kentucky, in November. Most of the 70 freighters are operated by FedEx and UPS (52 planes) and will be grounded indefinitely. Sou Ping Chee, regional head of air freight in Asia Pacific for Hellmann Worldwide Logistics, said capacity provided by commercial airlines comprised more than 80% of the global market. ”It will remain tight this year because there’s no significant additional capacity being added with few new freighter aircrafts that will be delivered this year,” he told the Journal of Commerce Thursday. But an unknown factor was how much chartered freighter capacity would return to the market this year and what impact it would have on increasing available space. Chee explained that when the US scrapped the de minimis exemption for low-value Chinese imports in May last year and demand tumbled on the trans-Pacific, many chartered freighters were redeployed to other routes. "Charters are committed for at least for a year and they had to somehow find a way to keep flying and filling their aircraft,” Chee said. “This year onwards, some of the e-commerce charter contracts will be due for renewal, so it will be interesting to see how many are renewed and how much capacity is returned to the market.” Tailwinds of growth In his latest monthly market update, Niall van de Wouw, chief air freight officer at rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, said one of the tailwinds of demand growth in 2025 came from investment linked to the development of AI solutions. But he warned that the less buoyant forward-looking signals for Chinese e-commerce exports were worrying. Despite a sharp drop in US business, China’s air freight exports are still dominated by e-commerce that comprises approximately one-third of the country’s total air cargo volume. “China’s cross-border e-commerce volumes were flat in October and November,” van de Wouw said. “If we see a third consecutive month of lower e-commerce growth out of China, that is a big signal, while duties imposed by other countries may present more unwelcome news for the air cargo market going forward.” Chinese customs data shows low-value and e-commerce exports in November rose by just 1% year over year after flatlining in October. Exports to the US represented the majority of the decline, falling 52% year over year in November after a drop of 51% in October. Before the de minimis ban imposed by Washington, China-US e-commerce accounted for approximately 3% of global air cargo volumes. China-European Union e-commerce volume continued to grow, expanding 29% in November following 47% year-over-year growth in October. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Air Cargo

Intra-Asia air freight capacity tightens on US high-tech demand

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The National Motor Freight Traffic Association issued new guidelines to promote dimensional pricing last July but ignored the fact that the LTL industry was riddled with excess capacity and languishing demand.</div>

The National Motor Freight Traffic Association issued new guidelines to promote dimensional pricing last July but ignored the fact that the LTL industry was riddled with excess capacity and languishing demand.

<div class="phx-topic">In August 2023, the US less-than-truckload (LTL) industry received a great gift from Yellow when it closed 19,500 doors at 310-plus terminals across the country. The removal of approximately 14% of overall US LTL terminal capacity brought demand and supply into equilibrium ... for a short time. In spring 2024, LTL carriers collectively bid on these surplus terminals to prevent an oversupply of capacity creeping back with the startup of a new LTL carrier, something that hasn’t happened for more than 40 years. However, instead of banking those hundreds and thousands of doors for a future when they would be in demand, many carriers brought that capacity online, creating a huge gap between demand and supply. After achieving high double-digit operating margins in 2023, one of the most profitable years for the LTL industry in decades, carriers are praying for an increase in demand to offset the costs of this excess capacity. While retailers can increase consumer demand by lowering prices, transportation companies cannot do the same by lowering their freight charges for industrial shippers. After holding on to a grossly outdated pricing model that uses product density to determine charges for upward of five decades, the National Motor Freight Traffic Association (NMFTA) finally realized it needed to come out of the Stone Age. The association issued new guidelines to promote dimensional pricing as of July 19, 2025, ignoring the fact that the industry was riddled with excess capacity and languishing demand. Bad timing aside, the NMFTA also erred by only changing the approach for about 4,000 commodities, instead of all 18,000-plus commodities LTL operators haul. It also failed to acknowledge that FedEx Freight, the market leader by huge margin and facing a spinoff in June 2026, was unlikely to embrace such changes. <h3>‘Wasted opportunity’ </h3>With such a half-pregnant approach to dimensional pricing, neither the carriers nor the transportation management system providers were ready to support it. And, of course, having dealt with hundreds of LTL shippers, they have the least interest in making a switch for fear of increasing rates. The decision to do so for just a few commodities and during a freight recession has been a non-event and a wasted opportunity after 50 years of trying to enter the digital age, a change comparable to replacing a rotary dial phone with a cell phone. The industry reasonably thinks that the NMFTA was more concerned about jobs for its members and delaying the inevitable fate of its being shut down, similar to what happened to the ICC and many rate bureaus after deregulation in the 1980s. And while carriers sought to get shippers’ cooperation to declare the dimensions of the handling units on the shipping manifest, they still wanted shippers to list the commodity shipped and its freight class (which would be freight-all-kinds for many). It is a gross failure by carriers to not let go of bad practices of the past and then claim that shippers are uncooperative with the change to dimensional pricing. Neither the NMFTA nor the carriers considered that shippers would have no motivation to add the dimensions of the handling units if it did not add any value to their own shipping operation or help reduce shipping charges. With the huge emphasis on deploying AI for all business functions, the NMFTA also failed to consider the impact AI could have on LTL pricing and thereby overlooked the opportunities that would unfold with the change to dimensional pricing. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="29692a74-5961-42e8-9a76-9430713eb859"></dynamic-object></div>The NMFTA can still achieve its goal to replace current National Motor Freight Classification with dimensional pricing by applying it to all commodities — and with it the disbanding of the organization because it will not be needed, just as the air freight and parcel segments utilize dimensional pricing without a third-party entity to manage it. Satish Jindel is president of ShipMatrix. Contact him at <a href="mailto:info@shipmatrix.com">info@shipmatrix.com</a>. </div>

In August 2023, the US less-than-truckload (LTL) industry received a great gift from Yellow when it closed 19,500 doors at 310-plus terminals across the country. The removal of approximately 14% of overall US LTL terminal capacity brought demand and supply into equilibrium ... for a short time. In spring 2024, LTL carriers collectively bid on these surplus terminals to prevent an oversupply of capacity creeping back with the startup of a new LTL carrier, something that hasn’t happened for more than 40 years. However, instead of banking those hundreds and thousands of doors for a future when they would be in demand, many carriers brought that capacity online, creating a huge gap between demand and supply. After achieving high double-digit operating margins in 2023, one of the most profitable years for the LTL industry in decades, carriers are praying for an increase in demand to offset the costs of this excess capacity. While retailers can increase consumer demand by lowering prices, transportation companies cannot do the same by lowering their freight charges for industrial shippers. After holding on to a grossly outdated pricing model that uses product density to determine charges for upward of five decades, the National Motor Freight Traffic Association (NMFTA) finally realized it needed to come out of the Stone Age. The association issued new guidelines to promote dimensional pricing as of July 19, 2025, ignoring the fact that the industry was riddled with excess capacity and languishing demand. Bad timing aside, the NMFTA also erred by only changing the approach for about 4,000 commodities, instead of all 18,000-plus commodities LTL operators haul. It also failed to acknowledge that FedEx Freight, the market leader by huge margin and facing a spinoff in June 2026, was unlikely to embrace such changes. ‘Wasted opportunity’ With such a half-pregnant approach to dimensional pricing, neither the carriers nor the transportation management system providers were ready to support it. And, of course, having dealt with hundreds of LTL shippers, they have the least interest in making a switch for fear of increasing rates. The decision to do so for just a few commodities and during a freight recession has been a non-event and a wasted opportunity after 50 years of trying to enter the digital age, a change comparable to replacing a rotary dial phone with a cell phone. The industry reasonably thinks that the NMFTA was more concerned about jobs for its members and delaying the inevitable fate of its being shut down, similar to what happened to the ICC and many rate bureaus after deregulation in the 1980s. And while carriers sought to get shippers’ cooperation to declare the dimensions of the handling units on the shipping manifest, they still wanted shippers to list the commodity shipped and its freight class (which would be freight-all-kinds for many). It is a gross failure by carriers to not let go of bad practices of the past and then claim that shippers are uncooperative with the change to dimensional pricing. Neither the NMFTA nor the carriers considered that shippers would have no motivation to add the dimensions of the handling units if it did not add any value to their own shipping operation or help reduce shipping charges. With the huge emphasis on deploying AI for all business functions, the NMFTA also failed to consider the impact AI could have on LTL pricing and thereby overlooked the opportunities that would unfold with the change to dimensional pricing. The NMFTA can still achieve its goal to replace current National Motor Freight Classification with dimensional pricing by applying it to all commodities — and with it the disbanding of the organization because it will not be needed, just as the air freight and parcel segments utilize dimensional pricing without a third-party entity to manage it. Satish Jindel is president of ShipMatrix. Contact him at info@shipmatrix.com .

Surface

NMFTA can still achieve its goals on pricing model — then disband

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Any domestic intermodal growth in 2026 will depend largely on whether the mode can claw back share from the highway. </div>

Any domestic intermodal growth in 2026 will depend largely on whether the mode can claw back share from the highway.

<div class="phx-topic">The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook. Another turbulent year for North American intermodal has drawn to a close. The year started with a new US presidential administration, followed by “Liberation Day” and ongoing tariff uncertainty. Meanwhile, the industry coped with continued soft demand for truckload services and continued downward pricing pressure. The year culminated with the announcement of a coast-to-coast rail merger that, if approved, will certainly transform the intermodal landscape. Through the first 10 months of 2025, intermodal rail volumes rose 3.1% year over year — good growth, but well short of the 8.5% gain recorded in 2024. International intermodal — the movement of 20- and 40-foot ISO containers to and from ports — provided most of the growth impetus, increasing 4.3% through October versus 1.9% for domestic — 53-foot domestic containers and trailers. But the picture is changing fast. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6148252_0.1.jpg"></img></div>International came into 2025 with a ton of momentum. Growth in 2024 had been strong at 13.9%, thanks in part to late-year frontloading of imports in response to tariff fears. But the pendulum had begun to swing, and growth began to ebb. The first quarter of 2025 notched a 6.3% year-over-year gain, but in the second quarter, growth slowed to 2.4% before rising slightly to 2.8% in the third quarter. July results were boosted by a surge in imports after the Trump administration reduced the effective tariff rate on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%. Thereafter, the air resumed coming out of the balloon, with only a fractional gain in September and a 5.7% year-over-year deficit in October. <h3>‘Cloudy’ prospects for international intermodal </h3>The prospects for international intermodal in 2026 are cloudy at best. Donald Trump’s exceedingly volatile and unpredictable tariff gyrations have settled to a certain extent, reducing the big push/pull effects that rocked 2025. The first half of 2026 will bring difficult year-over-year comparisons as “normal” volumes are compared to the robust, frontloading-boosted volumes of the prior year. Adding to the headwinds will be the ongoing return to normalcy with regard to coastal share. West Coast share benefited in early 2025 from labor uncertainty on the East and Gulf coasts, as well as the closure of the Suez Canal routing. Now, labor peace reigns in the east, and the West Coast share has dipped back towards the previous normal. With the truce in Gaza, the potential is growing for a return to the Suez, which will enhance the East Coast option. This will be a headwind for intermodal, as intermodal market share is considerably higher on the West Coast than on the East Coast. <h3>‘Challenging’ environment for domestic </h3>The domestic intermodal sector continued to slog forward in 2025. After ending 2024 on an optimistic note, with domestic intermodal share ticking up to 6.2% in the second half of the year, the momentum faded in the first half of 2025, and share slipped back below 6%. Through October, domestic intermodal volumes grew just 1.9%, down from a 3.5% gain in 2024. For 2026, the environment for domestic intermodal is projected to remain challenging. Limited growth in truckload demand is expected. Truckload capacity has slowly been exiting, but history tells us that, in the absence of either an outside influence or an increase in demand, the trucking industry is unable to “right-size” capacity. Any intermodal growth will depend largely on whether the mode can claw back share from the highway. However, a wild card is taking shape in the form of the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown. In trucking, these initiatives include documentation checks during traffic stops, and a crackdown on non-domicile commercial drivers’ licenses and English competency requirements. Taken together, these actions hold the potential for a meaningful reduction in driver supply. Whether it is large enough to move the needle will depend on how far and how quickly things evolve. On the plus side, US Surface Transportation Board service statistics indicate that, despite the ups and downs experienced in 2025, the intermodal network has been running exceptionally well. In particular, trains being held in terminals for lack of power or crews are at very low levels across the board. This implies that more-than-adequate supplies of both are available. In other good news, domestic intermodal is growing strongly in Mexican markets. Intra-Mexico domestic container moves were up 17.5% year-to-date through October, and domestic containers crossing the border, which declined 3.1% in 2024, were up 20.9%. It may have taken a while, but the flurry of new services engendered by the Canadian Pacific Kansas City merger and the reaction of the other railroads have started to gain some traction. Larry Gross is president and founder of Gross Transportation Consulting. Contact him at <a href="mailto:lawrencejgross@gmail.com">lawrencejgross@gmail.com</a>. </div>

The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook. Another turbulent year for North American intermodal has drawn to a close. The year started with a new US presidential administration, followed by “Liberation Day” and ongoing tariff uncertainty. Meanwhile, the industry coped with continued soft demand for truckload services and continued downward pricing pressure. The year culminated with the announcement of a coast-to-coast rail merger that, if approved, will certainly transform the intermodal landscape. Through the first 10 months of 2025, intermodal rail volumes rose 3.1% year over year — good growth, but well short of the 8.5% gain recorded in 2024. International intermodal — the movement of 20- and 40-foot ISO containers to and from ports — provided most of the growth impetus, increasing 4.3% through October versus 1.9% for domestic — 53-foot domestic containers and trailers. But the picture is changing fast. International came into 2025 with a ton of momentum. Growth in 2024 had been strong at 13.9%, thanks in part to late-year frontloading of imports in response to tariff fears. But the pendulum had begun to swing, and growth began to ebb. The first quarter of 2025 notched a 6.3% year-over-year gain, but in the second quarter, growth slowed to 2.4% before rising slightly to 2.8% in the third quarter. July results were boosted by a surge in imports after the Trump administration reduced the effective tariff rate on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%. Thereafter, the air resumed coming out of the balloon, with only a fractional gain in September and a 5.7% year-over-year deficit in October. ‘Cloudy’ prospects for international intermodal The prospects for international intermodal in 2026 are cloudy at best. Donald Trump’s exceedingly volatile and unpredictable tariff gyrations have settled to a certain extent, reducing the big push/pull effects that rocked 2025. The first half of 2026 will bring difficult year-over-year comparisons as “normal” volumes are compared to the robust, frontloading-boosted volumes of the prior year. Adding to the headwinds will be the ongoing return to normalcy with regard to coastal share. West Coast share benefited in early 2025 from labor uncertainty on the East and Gulf coasts, as well as the closure of the Suez Canal routing. Now, labor peace reigns in the east, and the West Coast share has dipped back towards the previous normal. With the truce in Gaza, the potential is growing for a return to the Suez, which will enhance the East Coast option. This will be a headwind for intermodal, as intermodal market share is considerably higher on the West Coast than on the East Coast. ‘Challenging’ environment for domestic The domestic intermodal sector continued to slog forward in 2025. After ending 2024 on an optimistic note, with domestic intermodal share ticking up to 6.2% in the second half of the year, the momentum faded in the first half of 2025, and share slipped back below 6%. Through October, domestic intermodal volumes grew just 1.9%, down from a 3.5% gain in 2024. For 2026, the environment for domestic intermodal is projected to remain challenging. Limited growth in truckload demand is expected. Truckload capacity has slowly been exiting, but history tells us that, in the absence of either an outside influence or an increase in demand, the trucking industry is unable to “right-size” capacity. Any intermodal growth will depend largely on whether the mode can claw back share from the highway. However, a wild card is taking shape in the form of the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown. In trucking, these initiatives include documentation checks during traffic stops, and a crackdown on non-domicile commercial drivers’ licenses and English competency requirements. Taken together, these actions hold the potential for a meaningful reduction in driver supply. Whether it is large enough to move the needle will depend on how far and how quickly things evolve. On the plus side, US Surface Transportation Board service statistics indicate that, despite the ups and downs experienced in 2025, the intermodal network has been running exceptionally well. In particular, trains being held in terminals for lack of power or crews are at very low levels across the board. This implies that more-than-adequate supplies of both are available. In other good news, domestic intermodal is growing strongly in Mexican markets. Intra-Mexico domestic container moves were up 17.5% year-to-date through October, and domestic containers crossing the border, which declined 3.1% in 2024, were up 20.9%. It may have taken a while, but the flurry of new services engendered by the Canadian Pacific Kansas City merger and the reaction of the other railroads have started to gain some traction. Larry Gross is president and founder of Gross Transportation Consulting. Contact him at lawrencejgross@gmail.com .

North-American rail

After tumultuous 2025, challenges remain for North American intermodal

West

East

Gulf

PIERS containerized US import and export volumes is the transportation industry’s largest US waterborne trade data set, covering all US ports. Every day, the PIERS team processes an average of about 60,000 bills of lading filed with US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and integrates this transactional trade data with standardized company details. PIERS contains US trade data going back to 2003. [PIERS](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/products/piers.html)

Asia to US West, East and Gulf Coast YTD container volume market share (PIERS)

PIERS TEU market share US coastal imports from Asia (YTD) Gateway

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Few blank sailings have been announced for January, and none this week, as shippers in Asia get their cargo on the water ahead of China’s Lunar New Year factory shutdown.</div>

Few blank sailings have been announced for January, and none this week, as shippers in Asia get their cargo on the water ahead of China’s Lunar New Year factory shutdown.

<div class="phx-topic">The annual pre-Lunar New Year rush is underway on the Asia-North Europe ocean trade, with some market watchers reporting signs of frontloading on top of seasonal demand while others feel the volumes in January are within historical norms.What is clear, however, is that carriers are injecting significant capacity into the trade lane this month while blanking very few sailings as shippers race to get their cargo on the water before factories across China close for up to three weeks. The Year of the Horse begins on Feb. 17.Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, said capacity offered on Asia to North Europe was at an all-time high this week with no blank sailings. Data from Xeneta’s eeSea shows a record 1.15 million TEUs in capacity is being deployed this month on the Asia-North Europe trade lane, with blank sailings removing just 25,000 TEUs. In February, the planned capacity will drop to just over 1 million TEUs.“Demand is solid and seasonally strong ... anything of top of that could be fueled by [market] uncertainty,” Sand told the Journal of Commerce.Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis also highlighted a significant capacity increase, pointing to current weekly capacity of 421,825 TEUs being offered on Asia-North Europe, a 49% net increase compared with a 2015–19 pre-COVID-19 historical baseline.<div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="a63d21f3-de18-45d8-8acf-7aca6ea4f4c4"></dynamic-object></div>“This is a strong indication of a frontloading strategy where shippers are pushing massive volumes into the network much earlier than the historical figures suggest, likely a response to the current extended Asia-Europe transit times,” Sea-Intelligence wrote in the newsletter.“By flooding the trade lane early, shippers aim to ensure that their European inventory is buffered before the planned Lunar New Year capacity withdrawal begins,” the analyst noted.<h3>Demand following seasonal patterns</h3>A spokesman for Hapag-Lloyd said demand on the eastbound trade routes from Asia to Europe was following seasonal patterns.“We’re witnessing a normal peak season which started in December and is now ramping up towards Lunar New Year,” a spokesperson for Hapag-Lloyd told the Journal of Commerce. “We expect bookings to soften from end-January onwards as factories close.”Michael Aldwell, executive vice president of sea logistics at Kuehne + Nagel, said most of the forwarder’s customers in Europe used a “just-in-time” approach to manage supply chains and stock levels, which was affecting the duration of peak shipping periods.“[However], after two years of extended transit times, shippers are adjusting their plans accordingly, leading to a more stretched peak season,” Aldwell told the Journal of Commerce.Rising spot rates are accompanying the strong pre-Lunar New Year demand, with all indexes showing steep increases since early October. According to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, Asia-North Europe rates of $2,700 per FEU this week are more than double the Oct. 3 price. Container Trades Statistics, in its latest available data (October), shows Asia-North Europe container volume growth of almost 8% over the first 10 months of 2025 as oscillating US tariffs on Beijing saw Chinese shippers redirecting cargo to European markets. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The annual pre-Lunar New Year rush is underway on the Asia-North Europe ocean trade, with some market watchers reporting signs of frontloading on top of seasonal demand while others feel the volumes in January are within historical norms. What is clear, however, is that carriers are injecting significant capacity into the trade lane this month while blanking very few sailings as shippers race to get their cargo on the water before factories across China close for up to three weeks. The Year of the Horse begins on Feb. 17. Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, said capacity offered on Asia to North Europe was at an all-time high this week with no blank sailings. Data from Xeneta’s eeSea shows a record 1.15 million TEUs in capacity is being deployed this month on the Asia-North Europe trade lane, with blank sailings removing just 25,000 TEUs. In February, the planned capacity will drop to just over 1 million TEUs. “Demand is solid and seasonally strong ... anything of top of that could be fueled by [market] uncertainty,” Sand told the Journal of Commerce. Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis also highlighted a significant capacity increase, pointing to current weekly capacity of 421,825 TEUs being offered on Asia-North Europe, a 49% net increase compared with a 2015–19 pre-COVID-19 historical baseline. “This is a strong indication of a frontloading strategy where shippers are pushing massive volumes into the network much earlier than the historical figures suggest, likely a response to the current extended Asia-Europe transit times,” Sea-Intelligence wrote in the newsletter. “By flooding the trade lane early, shippers aim to ensure that their European inventory is buffered before the planned Lunar New Year capacity withdrawal begins,” the analyst noted. Demand following seasonal patterns A spokesman for Hapag-Lloyd said demand on the eastbound trade routes from Asia to Europe was following seasonal patterns. “We’re witnessing a normal peak season which started in December and is now ramping up towards Lunar New Year,” a spokesperson for Hapag-Lloyd told the Journal of Commerce. “We expect bookings to soften from end-January onwards as factories close.” Michael Aldwell, executive vice president of sea logistics at Kuehne + Nagel, said most of the forwarder’s customers in Europe used a “just-in-time” approach to manage supply chains and stock levels, which was affecting the duration of peak shipping periods. “[However], after two years of extended transit times, shippers are adjusting their plans accordingly, leading to a more stretched peak season,” Aldwell told the Journal of Commerce. Rising spot rates are accompanying the strong pre-Lunar New Year demand, with all indexes showing steep increases since early October. According to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, Asia-North Europe rates of $2,700 per FEU this week are more than double the Oct. 3 price. Container Trades Statistics, in its latest available data (October), shows Asia-North Europe container volume growth of almost 8% over the first 10 months of 2025 as oscillating US tariffs on Beijing saw Chinese shippers redirecting cargo to European markets. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Asia-Europe ocean carriers add capacity as trade enters peak shipping period

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The deals for nine feeder container ships and four multipurpose and heavy-lift ships total about $490 million, according to Cosco and shipbrokers.</div>

The deals for nine feeder container ships and four multipurpose and heavy-lift ships total about $490 million, according to Cosco and shipbrokers.

<div class="phx-topic">Cosco Shipping has awarded the initial tranche of shipbuilding contracts in its $7 billion fleet expansion and modernization program with China Shipbuilding Group announced in early December. The deals for nine feeder container ships and four multipurpose and heavy-lift ships total about $490 million, according to Cosco and shipbrokers. The larger package has been signed by Cosco Shipping Lines with CSSC Wuchang Shipbuilding for five 1,100-TEU feeder container ships and four 1,800-TEU vessels at a total cost of about $280 million. Seven of the ships will be delivered in 2028, with the remaining two in 2029. Shipbrokers say the 1,100-TEU ships are priced at about $30 million each, with the larger 1,800-TEU vessels costing $32 million. The ships are expected to be deployed on Cosco’s domestic network and its intra-Europe network operated by its Hamburg-headquartered affiliated carrier, Diamond Line. Meanwhile, a deal valued at $213 million was awarded by Cosco Shipping Specialized Carriers to CSSC Chengxi Shipyard for four 40,000-deadweight metric ton multipurpose and heavy-lift ships, Cosco said in a three-page statement to the Shanghai stock exchange. The first ship will be delivered in June 2028, with two more following in September and December 2028; the final ship will join Cosco’s specialized fleet in February 2029. The orders have been placed against a background of modest fleet growth in the global MPV and heavy-lift sector. The global fleet is set to expand by just 1.9% through 2029 as vessel scrapping largely keeps pace with new vessel deliveries, according to data published on the Journal of Commerce’s Gateway platform. The new vessels are expected to support Cosco’s expansion into the global wind energy sector. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="fb97885d-0b88-4d65-99f6-10558c9e7c79"></dynamic-object></div>“The trend toward larger-scale and deep-sea wind power has placed higher requirements on the scale and vessel type structure of the company’s multipurpose heavy-lift fleet,” Cosco said. Cosco has won a raft of wind energy transportation deals, especially in Europe. It completed the final shipment last month of monopiles for the Inch Cape offshore project in Scotland. Cosco said the new ships will generate an internal rate of return of 6.8% with an “investment payback period of 11.8 years, indicating good economic benefits.” Cosco has one of the world’s largest fleets of MPVs and heavy-lift ships with approximately 70 vessels and 10 semi-submersible deck carriers, which makes it the biggest operator of semi-submersible ships. Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>.</div>

Cosco Shipping has awarded the initial tranche of shipbuilding contracts in its $7 billion fleet expansion and modernization program with China Shipbuilding Group announced in early December. The deals for nine feeder container ships and four multipurpose and heavy-lift ships total about $490 million, according to Cosco and shipbrokers. The larger package has been signed by Cosco Shipping Lines with CSSC Wuchang Shipbuilding for five 1,100-TEU feeder container ships and four 1,800-TEU vessels at a total cost of about $280 million. Seven of the ships will be delivered in 2028, with the remaining two in 2029. Shipbrokers say the 1,100-TEU ships are priced at about $30 million each, with the larger 1,800-TEU vessels costing $32 million. The ships are expected to be deployed on Cosco’s domestic network and its intra-Europe network operated by its Hamburg-headquartered affiliated carrier, Diamond Line. Meanwhile, a deal valued at $213 million was awarded by Cosco Shipping Specialized Carriers to CSSC Chengxi Shipyard for four 40,000-deadweight metric ton multipurpose and heavy-lift ships, Cosco said in a three-page statement to the Shanghai stock exchange. The first ship will be delivered in June 2028, with two more following in September and December 2028; the final ship will join Cosco’s specialized fleet in February 2029. The orders have been placed against a background of modest fleet growth in the global MPV and heavy-lift sector. The global fleet is set to expand by just 1.9% through 2029 as vessel scrapping largely keeps pace with new vessel deliveries, according to data published on the Journal of Commerce’s Gateway platform. The new vessels are expected to support Cosco’s expansion into the global wind energy sector. “The trend toward larger-scale and deep-sea wind power has placed higher requirements on the scale and vessel type structure of the company’s multipurpose heavy-lift fleet,” Cosco said. Cosco has won a raft of wind energy transportation deals, especially in Europe. It completed the final shipment last month of monopiles for the Inch Cape offshore project in Scotland. Cosco said the new ships will generate an internal rate of return of 6.8% with an “investment payback period of 11.8 years, indicating good economic benefits.” Cosco has one of the world’s largest fleets of MPVs and heavy-lift ships with approximately 70 vessels and 10 semi-submersible deck carriers, which makes it the biggest operator of semi-submersible ships. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

Cosco awards initial newbuilding deals as part of $7 billion fleet expansion

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Months of frontloading explain the sharp volume slowdown in the final months of 2025, and with consumer sentiment weak and long-term trade policies still uncertain, US retailers are keeping inventories lean in early 2026. </div>

Months of frontloading explain the sharp volume slowdown in the final months of 2025, and with consumer sentiment weak and long-term trade policies still uncertain, US retailers are keeping inventories lean in early 2026.

<div class="phx-topic">The big picture: After an earlier-than-usual July peak season caused by tariff-related frontloading, the trans-Pacific trade enters 2026 in the midst of a deepening demand slowdown. Carriers are hoping a traditional pre-Lunar New Year rush will boost volumes and help buoy spot rates on the largest US trade lane, but the chances of a significant uptick are dwindling rapidly. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6143172_0.1.jpg"></img></div>A look back: Ocean container trade between Asia and the US in 2025 was marked primarily by retailers frontloading imports to reduce the pricing impact of Trump administration tariffs. The administration throughout the year issued more than 100 tariff decisions affecting imports from virtually every country in the world, with the largest increases in duty rates on goods made in China. As a result, containerized US imports from Asia grew 3.2% in the first eight months of 2025 before tumbling 8.8% year over year from September through November, according to data from PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. That volatility in volumes was also evident in the two large spikes in spot rates recorded in the first half, both of which were followed by swift declines. Average pricing from Asia to the US West Coast rose above $5,000 per FEU in early January, fell to $1,600 per FEU in March, rose to a 2025 high of $6,000 per FEU in June and then dropped to $1,700 per FEU in July, according to Platts, also part of S&amp;P Global. Starting Oct. 1, carriers launched a series of bimonthly general rate increases (GRIs) in an attempt to prevent spot rates from collapsing, but the effect of each GRI was short-lived, and by mid-December, Asia-US West Coast spot rates had fallen to $1,270 per FEU, the lowest reading since July 2023. A look ahead: Months of frontloading explain the harsh volume slowdown in the final months of 2025, and with consumer sentiment weak and long-term trade policies still uncertain, US retailers are keeping inventories lean in early 2026. Despite a one-year negotiating pause in reciprocal US-China tariffs that began in November, imports from China still face an effective duty rate of 47%. Retailers are placing orders for spring merchandise cautiously, and the typical rush of factory production and container vessel bookings in the lead up to Lunar New Year celebrations in China are expected to fall flat, leaving volumes well below the levels recorded in 2025. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="a04e27f7-b2bc-4d9d-b3cc-b14fb864d836"></dynamic-object></div>Total US imports are forecast to fall 10.3% year over year in January, 8.5% in February, 16.8% in March and 10.9% in April, according to the latest Global Port Tracker from Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation. Carriers have not dismissed the possibility of additional GRIs in the new year, but as in the latter part of 2025, their efforts will be focused more on maintaining a floor on spot rates as opposed to increasing the ceiling. The next inflection: Trans-Pacific carriers and their customers are looking ahead to two possible developments in 2026 that could further depress freight rates: a forecast 4% increase in global container ship capacity and whether carriers will return to regular transits through the Suez Canal, which could increase effective capacity from Asia to the US East Coast. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The big picture: After an earlier-than-usual July peak season caused by tariff-related frontloading, the trans-Pacific trade enters 2026 in the midst of a deepening demand slowdown. Carriers are hoping a traditional pre-Lunar New Year rush will boost volumes and help buoy spot rates on the largest US trade lane, but the chances of a significant uptick are dwindling rapidly. A look back: Ocean container trade between Asia and the US in 2025 was marked primarily by retailers frontloading imports to reduce the pricing impact of Trump administration tariffs. The administration throughout the year issued more than 100 tariff decisions affecting imports from virtually every country in the world, with the largest increases in duty rates on goods made in China. As a result, containerized US imports from Asia grew 3.2% in the first eight months of 2025 before tumbling 8.8% year over year from September through November, according to data from PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. That volatility in volumes was also evident in the two large spikes in spot rates recorded in the first half, both of which were followed by swift declines. Average pricing from Asia to the US West Coast rose above $5,000 per FEU in early January, fell to $1,600 per FEU in March, rose to a 2025 high of $6,000 per FEU in June and then dropped to $1,700 per FEU in July, according to Platts, also part of S&P Global. Starting Oct. 1, carriers launched a series of bimonthly general rate increases (GRIs) in an attempt to prevent spot rates from collapsing, but the effect of each GRI was short-lived, and by mid-December, Asia-US West Coast spot rates had fallen to $1,270 per FEU, the lowest reading since July 2023. A look ahead: Months of frontloading explain the harsh volume slowdown in the final months of 2025, and with consumer sentiment weak and long-term trade policies still uncertain, US retailers are keeping inventories lean in early 2026. Despite a one-year negotiating pause in reciprocal US-China tariffs that began in November, imports from China still face an effective duty rate of 47%. Retailers are placing orders for spring merchandise cautiously, and the typical rush of factory production and container vessel bookings in the lead up to Lunar New Year celebrations in China are expected to fall flat, leaving volumes well below the levels recorded in 2025. Total US imports are forecast to fall 10.3% year over year in January, 8.5% in February, 16.8% in March and 10.9% in April, according to the latest Global Port Tracker from Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation. Carriers have not dismissed the possibility of additional GRIs in the new year, but as in the latter part of 2025, their efforts will be focused more on maintaining a floor on spot rates as opposed to increasing the ceiling. The next inflection: Trans-Pacific carriers and their customers are looking ahead to two possible developments in 2026 that could further depress freight rates: a forecast 4% increase in global container ship capacity and whether carriers will return to regular transits through the Suez Canal, which could increase effective capacity from Asia to the US East Coast. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .

Tariffs, economic uncertainty weigh on pre-Lunar New Year trans-Pac volumes

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Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) has long been the backbone of global commerce, quietly facilitating trillions in transactions. Yet, despite its critical role, traditional EDI has remained notoriously complex, labor-intensive, viewed as antique, and costly. Companies have historically grappled with cumbersome mapping processes, intricate partner-specific logic, and extended onboarding timelines. Now, as industries increasingly adopt agile digital frameworks, the limitations of conventional EDI solutions have become glaringly apparent. Enter Mosaic, an innovative solution unveiled by Orderful, which promises to radically streamline and modernize EDI integration through artificial intelligence. Orderful, already recognized for simplifying supply chain data exchanges, has now introduced Mosaic as the first AI-enriched EDI integration product that completely removes traditional mapping processes. At its core, Mosaic represents a fundamental shift from legacy EDI protocols, replacing archaic, code-heavy formats such as X12 and EDIFACT with modern, easy to use JSON inputs oriented around system-of-record concepts. This alone significantly lowers the barrier to integration, allowing teams accustomed to modern SaaS API development to seamlessly adopt EDI workflows. Mosaic's AI-powered engine ingests and interprets trading partner requirements as well as millions of actual transactions to build reliable, reuseable, self-healing integration which translating data into partner-specific formats without manual intervention. Such automated adaptability is unprecedented in the EDI landscape and promises a marked reduction in implementation timelines, from what once took months or even years, down to mere weeks. Erik Kiser, founder and CEO of Orderful, understands firsthand the pain points of traditional EDI. Having built integrations himself early in his career, Kiser founded Orderful specifically to address the persistent challenges that frustrate businesses across the supply chain. "Nobody has been more frustrated by EDI than I have," Kiser notes candidly. "Those experiences are precisely why Orderful and now Mosaic exist." Mosaic further distinguishes itself by embedding real-time validation and debugging, streamlining error resolution from lengthy processes into rapid, straightforward fixes. Developers, traditionally burdened by the complexities of partner-specific requirements and intricate coding standards, now gain an intuitive, self-service environment. This reduction in complexity not only accelerates implementation but also reduces operational overhead, offering critical advantages in today’s fast-paced business environment. Brian Roberts, general partner at Andreessen Horowitz and Orderful board member, underscores Mosaic's industry impact: "Mosaic has taken one of the most entrenched bottlenecks in enterprise technology, EDI mapping, and replaced it with an AI-native product that adapts automatically. It’s exactly the type of innovation the industry has been missing." While Mosaic initially supports the complete Order-to-Cash lifecycle, covering purchase orders, acknowledgments, shipping notices, and invoices, the platform is designed for continuous growth and expansion. Orderful sees Mosaic not merely as a product but as a foundational architecture poised to support a broader range of data flows and integrations, aligning perfectly with the scalable requirements of global businesses. “The underlying unified data model not only lets us act as the universal connector, but also enables us to build product once that applies to all partners. This includes EDI functionality like order splitting and consolidation, but also unlocks powerful analytics and insights for our customers to help them grow their business,” said Will Benish, principal product manager at Orderful. Security and reliability are integral to Mosaic’s infrastructure, evidenced by SOC 2 Type II compliance and OAuth 2.0 integration. Additionally, the platform guarantees robust performance, boasting sub-second transaction speeds and immediate access to an extensive network of over 10,000 trading partners. For businesses already utilizing Orderful, Mosaic offers a seamless upgrade pathway, allowing organizations to embrace the future of EDI without disrupting their current trading partner relationships. New clients will find Mosaic’s approach refreshingly modern, providing immediate gains in speed, ease of integration, and scalability. Mosaic represents more than just an incremental improvement; it's a visionary leap forward in how enterprises manage and leverage supply chain data. As businesses grapple with increasingly complex global supply networks, Orderful’s Mosaic emerges as a timely and essential tool, providing clarity, agility, and unprecedented simplicity. Mosaic elevates EDI, providing businesses with a streamlined and efficient pathway to rapidly integrate, adapt, and scale in today's dynamic market. “Mosaic wouldn’t have been possible to build even three years ago. The work our team has put in has been extraordinary, combining cutting edge AI techniques with our deep experience with EDI and our rich library of trading partner guidelines and requirements,” said Benish. To learn more about how Mosaic can transform your EDI capabilities and streamline your integration processes or request a demonstration at <a href="https://www.orderful.com/product/mosaic" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">www.orderful.com/product/mosaic</a>.

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From 1940s Roots to AI-Driven Future: Reinventing EDI for Today's Supply Chains

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<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">With vessel capacity outstripping volumes on the major trade lanes, analysts expect carriers to fall into the red as early as the first quarter, culminating in a multi-billion-dollar combined loss for the full year. </div>

With vessel capacity outstripping volumes on the major trade lanes, analysts expect carriers to fall into the red as early as the first quarter, culminating in a multi-billion-dollar combined loss for the full year.

<div class="phx-topic">The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook. The big picture: A growing imbalance between supply and demand will bring the container shipping industry’s five-year profitability voyage to an end in 2026. With vessel capacity outstripping volumes on the major trade lanes, analysts expect carriers to fall into the red as early as the first quarter, culminating in a multi-billion-dollar combined loss for the full year. A look back: The US tariff mayhem from the Trump administration severely disrupted container shipping on the trans-Pacific, particularly between the US and China. A tit-for-tat, stop-and-go escalation of the trade war between Washington and Beijing led to significant frontloading of US imports and, in turn, a harsher-than-usual slowdown in the final months of 2025. On the Asia-Europe trade lane, a different kind of frontloading caused peak season to begin in May, rather than June. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6143172_0.1.jpg"></img></div>Shippers concerned about longer transit times around southern Africa — in place since the Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea began in late 2023 — moved their imports a month earlier than normal to make sure goods made it on the shelves in time for summer, and strong demand continued through July before beginning to slide in September. Even with a fourth-quarter volume downturn, carriers were on pace to report a combined $20 billion profit in 2025, according to Drewry Shipping Consultants. A look ahead: With that depressed demand expected to linger into 2026, Drewry is forecasting a $10 billion container shipping industry loss for the year. Typically, volumes on the east-west trades out of Asia swell in January as shippers look to restock prior to Lunar New Year celebrations, during which factories in China slow or halt production for two weeks. This year, Asia-Europe forwarders are reporting relatively solid bookings for the month, but trans-Pacific forwarders are skeptical they will see any appreciable growth. The lackluster pre-Lunar New Year demand bodes poorly for the rest of the year, and maritime analysts expect the growing supply-demand imbalance to undermine efforts to raise rates. Global fleet capacity will grow 2.2% to 33.7 million TEUs in 2026, according to Drewry, while global container volumes will rise between 2.5% and 3.5%, according to a forecast from shipowner association Bimco. But the imbalance will be far more apparent on the trans-Pacific. With US retailers keeping inventories lean amid uncertain consumer sentiment and ever-changing tariff policy, Moody’s Ratings forecasts US container volumes will be flat to down 2% compared with 2025. The next inflection: The diversion of container ships away from the Suez Canal mitigated what would have been a significant capacity overhang over the past three years. But analysts warn that if carriers return to the much-faster Suez transits — the likelihood of which increases the longer the Israel-Hamas ceasefire holds — the resulting vessel bunching at ports in Europe will likewise tie up a significant amount of capacity. Those bottlenecks could take months to clear, putting upward pressure on rates and giving carriers some relief from an otherwise bleak earnings outlook. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook. The big picture: A growing imbalance between supply and demand will bring the container shipping industry’s five-year profitability voyage to an end in 2026. With vessel capacity outstripping volumes on the major trade lanes, analysts expect carriers to fall into the red as early as the first quarter, culminating in a multi-billion-dollar combined loss for the full year. A look back: The US tariff mayhem from the Trump administration severely disrupted container shipping on the trans-Pacific, particularly between the US and China. A tit-for-tat, stop-and-go escalation of the trade war between Washington and Beijing led to significant frontloading of US imports and, in turn, a harsher-than-usual slowdown in the final months of 2025. On the Asia-Europe trade lane, a different kind of frontloading caused peak season to begin in May, rather than June. Shippers concerned about longer transit times around southern Africa — in place since the Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea began in late 2023 — moved their imports a month earlier than normal to make sure goods made it on the shelves in time for summer, and strong demand continued through July before beginning to slide in September. Even with a fourth-quarter volume downturn, carriers were on pace to report a combined $20 billion profit in 2025, according to Drewry Shipping Consultants. A look ahead: With that depressed demand expected to linger into 2026, Drewry is forecasting a $10 billion container shipping industry loss for the year. Typically, volumes on the east-west trades out of Asia swell in January as shippers look to restock prior to Lunar New Year celebrations, during which factories in China slow or halt production for two weeks. This year, Asia-Europe forwarders are reporting relatively solid bookings for the month, but trans-Pacific forwarders are skeptical they will see any appreciable growth. The lackluster pre-Lunar New Year demand bodes poorly for the rest of the year, and maritime analysts expect the growing supply-demand imbalance to undermine efforts to raise rates. Global fleet capacity will grow 2.2% to 33.7 million TEUs in 2026, according to Drewry, while global container volumes will rise between 2.5% and 3.5%, according to a forecast from shipowner association Bimco. But the imbalance will be far more apparent on the trans-Pacific. With US retailers keeping inventories lean amid uncertain consumer sentiment and ever-changing tariff policy, Moody’s Ratings forecasts US container volumes will be flat to down 2% compared with 2025. The next inflection: The diversion of container ships away from the Suez Canal mitigated what would have been a significant capacity overhang over the past three years. But analysts warn that if carriers return to the much-faster Suez transits — the likelihood of which increases the longer the Israel-Hamas ceasefire holds — the resulting vessel bunching at ports in Europe will likewise tie up a significant amount of capacity. Those bottlenecks could take months to clear, putting upward pressure on rates and giving carriers some relief from an otherwise bleak earnings outlook. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Supply-demand imbalance puts ocean carriers on course for heavy losses

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Intermodal marketing companies have long been at a disadvantage because rail-owned containers lacked the real-time tracking and tracing capabilities that are standard among private fleets.</div>

Intermodal marketing companies have long been at a disadvantage because rail-owned containers lacked the real-time tracking and tracing capabilities that are standard among private fleets.

<div class="phx-topic">A multiyear effort to install GPS devices on approximately 75,000 rail-owned intermodal containers shared among several North American Class I railroads has been completed, according to Union Pacific Railroad (UP), closing a visibility gap that gave private container owners a strategic advantage in negotiations with shippers. UP owns and operates the container fleet, which also runs on the networks of Canadian National Railway, CSX Transportation, Norfolk Southern Railway and Mexico’s Ferromex. “This is another meaningful step as we deliver the best customer experience possible,” Kenny Rocker, UP’s executive vice president of sales, said in a statement on Monday. “By combining GPS-enabled containers with real-time data and smarter visibility tools, we’re providing the transparency and reliability our customers depend on.” The rail-owned containers are a critical resource for non-asset intermodal marketing companies (IMC), which compete directly for shipper freight with private container owners such as Hub Group, J.B. Hunt Transport Services and Schneider National. IMCs have long been at a disadvantage because rail-owned containers lacked the real-time tracking and tracing capabilities that are standard among private fleets. By contrast, real-time visibility is now common across the US truckload sector. Closing that gap has taken on added importance as UP’s projections for truckload-to-rail conversions are a pillar of its <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/up-in-merger-filing-vows-to-convert-millions-of-loads-to-intermodal-annually-6138380">case before the US Surface Transportation Board</a> as it seeks approval of its proposed acquisition of Norfolk Southern. Real-time location tracking of the rail-owned boxes will be available through the Blume Global platform and will support e-mail notifications, geofencing and application programming interface (API) connectivity. The move also introduces potential risk, however, as much of the freight moving in rail-owned containers already relies on Blume Global software; the logistics technology provider was the target of a cyberattack in 2022. Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

A multiyear effort to install GPS devices on approximately 75,000 rail-owned intermodal containers shared among several North American Class I railroads has been completed, according to Union Pacific Railroad (UP), closing a visibility gap that gave private container owners a strategic advantage in negotiations with shippers. UP owns and operates the container fleet, which also runs on the networks of Canadian National Railway, CSX Transportation, Norfolk Southern Railway and Mexico’s Ferromex. “This is another meaningful step as we deliver the best customer experience possible,” Kenny Rocker, UP’s executive vice president of sales, said in a statement on Monday. “By combining GPS-enabled containers with real-time data and smarter visibility tools, we’re providing the transparency and reliability our customers depend on.” The rail-owned containers are a critical resource for non-asset intermodal marketing companies (IMC), which compete directly for shipper freight with private container owners such as Hub Group, J.B. Hunt Transport Services and Schneider National. IMCs have long been at a disadvantage because rail-owned containers lacked the real-time tracking and tracing capabilities that are standard among private fleets. By contrast, real-time visibility is now common across the US truckload sector. Closing that gap has taken on added importance as UP’s projections for truckload-to-rail conversions are a pillar of its case before the US Surface Transportation Board as it seeks approval of its proposed acquisition of Norfolk Southern. Real-time location tracking of the rail-owned boxes will be available through the Blume Global platform and will support e-mail notifications, geofencing and application programming interface (API) connectivity. The move also introduces potential risk, however, as much of the freight moving in rail-owned containers already relies on Blume Global software; the logistics technology provider was the target of a cyberattack in 2022. Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Rail News

North American rail container fleet fully outfitted with GPS devices

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">With inflation increasing, consumer confidence declining and unemployment on the rise, US imports from Asia are not expected to see the typical pre-Lunar New Year surge in January and February.</div>

With inflation increasing, consumer confidence declining and unemployment on the rise, US imports from Asia are not expected to see the typical pre-Lunar New Year surge in January and February.

<div class="phx-topic">The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook. The big picture: Container gateways on the US West Coast in 2025 were able to hold onto market share gained in 2024 as importers frontloading seasonal merchandise from Asia due to tariff uncertainties took advantage of transit times that are at least two weeks shorter than East Coast routings. West Coast gateways remained relatively free from congestion throughout the year, and those conditions are likely to continue given the weak import volumes forecast for the first quarter of 2026. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6144851_0.1.jpg"></img></div>A look back: Similar to the wider trans-Pacific market, US West Coast ports benefited from tariff-related frontloading in the first half of 2025, but that growth turned to double-digit percentage declines in the fall. Amid the roller-coaster demand movements, the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland and the Northwest Seaport Alliance of Seattle and Tacoma handled 59.2% of US imports from Asia through November, exactly the same share as in the first 11 months of 2024, according to PIERS, a Journal of Commerce sister product within S&amp;P Global. To handle the somewhat volatile swings in volumes — a record 1.2 million TEUs of laden imports crossed West Coast terminal docks in July, for example — port stakeholders continued to incorporate the lessons they learned during the COVID-19 pandemic. Improved shipment forecasts and information sharing among carriers, marine terminals, truckers, chassis providers, railroads and warehouses resulted in lower truck turn and container dwell times at the marine terminals and fluid operations at warehouses and inland rail terminals. A look ahead: Cargo volumes at West Coast ports in 2026 will likely be impacted by macroeconomic forces in the US. With inflation increasing, consumer confidence declining and unemployment on the rise, US imports from Asia are not expected to see the typical pre-Lunar New Year surge in January and February. And unless some clarity and predictability in the Trump administration’s tariff policies are forthcoming, retailers are likely to be conservative in ordering spring and summer merchandise, extending year-over-year declines in West Coast imports through the first half of 2026. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="c328e2d6-c694-4af5-b0bb-86af8cec1ba4"></dynamic-object></div>Meanwhile, cargo owners, terminal operators and truckers in Southern California will be keeping a close eye on a lengthy bridge redecking project slated to begin in January. Located at the entry to Los Angeles harbor, the 63-year-old Vincent Thomas Bridge handles 53,000 vehicles a day, including about 3,400 heavy-duty trucks, according to the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans). Traffic disruptions are anticipated throughout the redecking project, which will require one-directional bridge closures through November followed by a full shutdown from November 2026 to March 2028. Although Caltrans has implemented an alternative route for truck and vehicular traffic and an information network with real-time updates on detours and delays, stakeholders remain concerned about roadway congestion potentially backing up to the terminals. The next inflection: If container lines return to the Suez Canal, East and Gulf coast ports could regain some of the market share they lost to the West Coast in the past two years. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook. The big picture: Container gateways on the US West Coast in 2025 were able to hold onto market share gained in 2024 as importers frontloading seasonal merchandise from Asia due to tariff uncertainties took advantage of transit times that are at least two weeks shorter than East Coast routings. West Coast gateways remained relatively free from congestion throughout the year, and those conditions are likely to continue given the weak import volumes forecast for the first quarter of 2026. A look back: Similar to the wider trans-Pacific market, US West Coast ports benefited from tariff-related frontloading in the first half of 2025, but that growth turned to double-digit percentage declines in the fall. Amid the roller-coaster demand movements, the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland and the Northwest Seaport Alliance of Seattle and Tacoma handled 59.2% of US imports from Asia through November, exactly the same share as in the first 11 months of 2024, according to PIERS, a Journal of Commerce sister product within S&P Global. To handle the somewhat volatile swings in volumes — a record 1.2 million TEUs of laden imports crossed West Coast terminal docks in July, for example — port stakeholders continued to incorporate the lessons they learned during the COVID-19 pandemic. Improved shipment forecasts and information sharing among carriers, marine terminals, truckers, chassis providers, railroads and warehouses resulted in lower truck turn and container dwell times at the marine terminals and fluid operations at warehouses and inland rail terminals. A look ahead: Cargo volumes at West Coast ports in 2026 will likely be impacted by macroeconomic forces in the US. With inflation increasing, consumer confidence declining and unemployment on the rise, US imports from Asia are not expected to see the typical pre-Lunar New Year surge in January and February. And unless some clarity and predictability in the Trump administration’s tariff policies are forthcoming, retailers are likely to be conservative in ordering spring and summer merchandise, extending year-over-year declines in West Coast imports through the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, cargo owners, terminal operators and truckers in Southern California will be keeping a close eye on a lengthy bridge redecking project slated to begin in January. Located at the entry to Los Angeles harbor, the 63-year-old Vincent Thomas Bridge handles 53,000 vehicles a day, including about 3,400 heavy-duty trucks, according to the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans). Traffic disruptions are anticipated throughout the redecking project, which will require one-directional bridge closures through November followed by a full shutdown from November 2026 to March 2028. Although Caltrans has implemented an alternative route for truck and vehicular traffic and an information network with real-time updates on detours and delays, stakeholders remain concerned about roadway congestion potentially backing up to the terminals. The next inflection: If container lines return to the Suez Canal, East and Gulf coast ports could regain some of the market share they lost to the West Coast in the past two years. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .

Port News

Soft volumes to keep West Coast ports congestion-free in early 2026

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The storm is bringing fierce winds and Arctic conditions to the region, impacting ocean, road and rail freight transport.</div>

The storm is bringing fierce winds and Arctic conditions to the region, impacting ocean, road and rail freight transport.

<div class="phx-topic">Heavy snow, ice and freezing temperatures are disrupting port and inland operations and grounding flights across Northern Europe as a winter storm hammers the region. Hundreds of flights in France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany were canceled Wednesday because of snow, high winds and icy conditions that are also affecting container terminal handling and road and rail networks. Maersk noted in an advisory that operations at key terminals, particularly in Rotterdam and Hamburg, were being disrupted. “As a result, productivity at terminals and depots has been reduced, while snow and icy road conditions are causing traffic congestion and delays for trucks,” the carrier said. “Rail services are also being affected by frozen track switches, leading to service disruptions and cancellations,” the advisory added, with the rail woes contributing to longer waiting times for import and export cargo and increasing yard congestion at hub ports in Northern Europe. <h3>Hamburg disruptions</h3>Terminal operator Eurogate is facing disruptions from snow, ice and strong winds at its Port of Hamburg facilities, but a spokesperson said its other German locations have so far been spared from the severe weather. “This may change, as the weather forecast for the coming days predicts very low temperatures, precipitation and strong winds for the whole of northern Germany,” the Eurogate spokesperson told the Journal of Commerce. “We are preparing as well as possible for these weather conditions but in some cases, we may have to pause operations.” A spokesperson for the Port of Hamburg said heavy snowfall restricted rail traffic last weekend, and while rail operations were “gradually returning to normal,” it will take time to clear backlogs. “Operations are running at the container terminals, but weather conditions are causing delays in handling across all modes of transport,” the port spokesperson said. “Winter service teams at the terminals are currently working flat out to ensure that handling operations continue as smoothly as possible.” Maersk highlighted challenging inland operating conditions in Northern Europe, warning of slower processing of trucks at Antwerp and Rotterdam, disrupted rail services between Rotterdam and Venlo, and delays between Rotterdam and Duisburg. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Heavy snow, ice and freezing temperatures are disrupting port and inland operations and grounding flights across Northern Europe as a winter storm hammers the region. Hundreds of flights in France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany were canceled Wednesday because of snow, high winds and icy conditions that are also affecting container terminal handling and road and rail networks. Maersk noted in an advisory that operations at key terminals, particularly in Rotterdam and Hamburg, were being disrupted. “As a result, productivity at terminals and depots has been reduced, while snow and icy road conditions are causing traffic congestion and delays for trucks,” the carrier said. “Rail services are also being affected by frozen track switches, leading to service disruptions and cancellations,” the advisory added, with the rail woes contributing to longer waiting times for import and export cargo and increasing yard congestion at hub ports in Northern Europe. Hamburg disruptions Terminal operator Eurogate is facing disruptions from snow, ice and strong winds at its Port of Hamburg facilities, but a spokesperson said its other German locations have so far been spared from the severe weather. “This may change, as the weather forecast for the coming days predicts very low temperatures, precipitation and strong winds for the whole of northern Germany,” the Eurogate spokesperson told the Journal of Commerce. “We are preparing as well as possible for these weather conditions but in some cases, we may have to pause operations.” A spokesperson for the Port of Hamburg said heavy snowfall restricted rail traffic last weekend, and while rail operations were “gradually returning to normal,” it will take time to clear backlogs. “Operations are running at the container terminals, but weather conditions are causing delays in handling across all modes of transport,” the port spokesperson said. “Winter service teams at the terminals are currently working flat out to ensure that handling operations continue as smoothly as possible.” Maersk highlighted challenging inland operating conditions in Northern Europe, warning of slower processing of trucks at Antwerp and Rotterdam, disrupted rail services between Rotterdam and Venlo, and delays between Rotterdam and Duisburg. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

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