<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Sept. 21, 1993 Included are list prices of suppliers. Quotations do not necessarily represen</div>

Sept. 21, 1993 Included are list prices of suppliers. Quotations do not necessarily represen

<div>Sept. 21, 1993Included are list prices of suppliers. Quotations do not necessarily represent prices at which transactions have actually occurred.*Prices underlying Industrial Price IndexFOODSBEEF Midwest dressed steers,3,500-700 lbs, $ cwt. 108.90BUTTER Chicago, AA, $ per lb. 0.78COCOA NY, Ivory Coast $ per metric ton 1,435COCONUT OIL, Crude, Pacific c per lb. 0.20 1/4COFFEE NY, Brazil, Santos 4s 76.75NY, Colombian 88.75COTTONSEED OIL, Miss. Valley c per lb. 0.29EGGS fcy. lg. white, $ per doz. 0.57-0.62HAMS NY No. 2 smoked, $ cwt. 74.00HIGH FRUCTOSE CORN SYRUP 55, Midwesttank cars $ cwt. wet basis 18.10LARD Chicago prime west. c per lb. 0.15 1/2PEANUT...

Sept. 21, 1993 Included are list prices of suppliers. Quotations do not necessarily represent prices at which transactions have actually occurred.*Prices underlying Industrial Price Index FOODS BEEF Midwest dressed steers, 3,500-700 lbs, $ cwt. 108.90 BUTTER Chicago, AA, $ per lb. 0.78 COCOA NY, Ivory Coast $ per metric ton 1,435 COCONUT OIL, Crude, Pacific c per lb. 0.20 1/4 COFFEE NY, Brazil, Santos 4s 76.75 NY, Colombian 88.75 COTTONSEED OIL, Miss. Valley c per lb. 0.29 EGGS fcy. lg. white, $ per doz. 0.57-0.62 HAMS NY No. 2 smoked, $ cwt. 74.00 HIGH FRUCTOSE CORN SYRUP 55, Midwest tank cars $ cwt. wet basis 18.10 LARD Chicago prime west. c per lb. 0.15 1/2 PEANUT OIL, Southeast, Crude c per lb. 0.39 1/2 SOYOIL Crude, Decatur, IL-c per lb. 23.57 SUGAR, LONDON bulk, converted 9.79 SUGAR, WORLD supplied by NY Coffee, Sugar, Cocoa Exchange 9.55 GRAINS BARLEY, FEED Duluth 2 feed $ per bushel 1.88 CORN Chicago No. 3 yellow $ per bushel 2.37 3/4 OATS Chicago No. 2 white $ per bushel 1.30 5/8 SOYBEANS Chicago No. 1 yellow $ per bu. 6.27 1/4 WHEAT Chicago No. 2 soft red $ per bu. 3.01 7/8 WHEAT KC, No.2 hard $ per bushel 3.24 1/2-4.61 1/2 TEXTILES *BURLAP NY 10 oz., 40 in. $ per yd. 24.00 *COTTON 1 1/16 in., slm, av. 7 mkts per lb. 53.99 *POLYESTER FIBER NY blend staple branded 0.74 *PRINT CLOTH NY DNR 48 in. 78x76 in yds per lb. 0.70 METALS *ALUMINUM LME spot, $ per ton 719.76 COPPER NY electolytic wire bars, $ per lb. 90.10 *COPPER, SCRAP NY No.2 58.50 *LEAD pig, common corroding $ per lb. 32.00 *SCRAP STEEL No.1 heavy melting, $ per ton Pitts. 116.00-117.00 Chi. 113.00-114.00 Phila. 113.00-115.00 SILVER Handy & Harman per troy ounce 4.0900 *TIN Grade A, NY Merchants $ per lb. 2.03 *ZINC spec high grade $ per lb. 44.36 INDUSTRIALS *BENZENE 89.00 *CRUDE OIL $ per barrel 17.80 *HARDWOOD LUMBER red oak flooring select 1,657.50 *HIDES Chicago, raw heavy native steers per lb. 81.00 *OLD CORRUGATED BOXES 5 mkt av. per ton 12.00 *PLYWOOD Chicago CDX 1/2 in. 4/5 ply west. sheath 333.00 *RUBBER NY crude, No. 1RSS c per lb. 0.44 *TALLOW Chicago inedible prime c per lb. 0.14 1/2

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<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Most major carriers have set net-zero goals and are investing heavily in dual-fuel vessels that support their emissions-cutting strategies despite a lack of global regulatory support.</div>

Most major carriers have set net-zero goals and are investing heavily in dual-fuel vessels that support their emissions-cutting strategies despite a lack of global regulatory support.

Feature image

<div class="phx-topic">Dual-fuel vessels capable of running on liquefied natural gas (LNG) continue to dominate the container shipping order book despite ongoing uncertainty around global emissions-cutting regulations.  While the overall newbuilding market across all shipping segments fell to 2,403 orders, down from 4,405 in 2024, in container shipping new orders rose from 447 in 2024 to 547 in 2025, accounting for 49% of all gross tonnage and 68% of alternative-fuel new orders, according to classification society DNV. “The resilience of the alternative fuels orderbook in 2025 is mainly driven by cargo owners who have set their own emissions reduction goals despite (the) market slowdown and regulatory uncertainty,” Jason Stefanatos, global decarbonization director at DNV, said in a market update Monday. "We see (ocean carriers) prioritizing investments where there is a strong alignment between fuel infrastructure, regulatory certainty and commercial viability, particularly in container shipping, where LNG and methanol are supported by established supply chains and customer demand,” he added. The chance for shipping to become the first global industry to implement emissions-reducing regulations was lost in October when <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/imo-punts-on-pivotal-net-zero-shipping-regulation-6099141">US-led opposition derailed the International Maritime Organization net-zero framework</a> at a pivotal Marine Environmental Protection Committee (MEPC) meeting in London. The net-zero framework was postponed for at least a year, and possibly longer if the US continues to lobby against it. At issue is the price differential between conventional bunker fuels and greener fuels. A global price on emissions is key to narrowing the price gap, spurring demand and giving green fuel producers an incentive to invest in production. The MEPC will meet again this coming October, and although the delay may hurt the broader case for investment in the development of alternative fuels and related infrastructure, container carriers and shipowners remain firmly focused on LNG as the top green fuel of choice in newbuild vessel orders. Net-zero targets set by carriers Most of the major carriers in container shipping have set net-zero goals and are investing heavily in dual-fuel vessels that support their emissions-cutting strategies despite the regulatory uncertainty.  Data from Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, shows that just over 4 million TEUs of capacity for LNG dual-fuel ships was on order in 2025 compared to 2 million TEUs of methanol-capable vessels <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="e8be4ac1-33cb-4758-93c4-1d0f92f52e7d"></dynamic-object></div>LNG as an interim alternative fuel solves multiple problems for container lines. It can reduce absolute carbon emissions by up to 20%, according to the American Bureau of Shipping, so progress toward decarbonization can be demonstrated to customers and the public. LNG is also more widely available than methanol, the supply of which is constrained and prices stubbornly high and will likely remain so due to IMO inaction on its zero-emissions framework. Maersk, for example, cited a lack of adequate supply when it <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/maersks-lng-order-hedges-bet-on-green-fuel-technology-ceo-5703200">pivoted from methanol to LNG in late 2024</a> for its next round of 50 to 60 vessels. DNV said in its market update that investment in fuel infrastructure was continuing at pace with 22 LNG bunker vessels added to the orderbook alongside new bunkering vessels capable of supplying methanol and biofuel. These developments signal growing confidence in LNG supply chains and emerging multi-fuel capabilities, reducing operational risk and supporting the economics of alternative fuel adoption. With the IMO delay in adopting global decarbonization measures throwing interim greenhouse gas emissions targets into doubt, improving the fuel efficiency of vessels has attained even greater importance, particularly in Europe. The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) carbon tax and  Maritime fuel intensity regulations will come into full effect this year, and cutting vessel emissions will directly impact a carrier’s operating costs. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>.  </div>

Dual-fuel vessels capable of running on liquefied natural gas (LNG) continue to dominate the container shipping order book despite ongoing uncertainty around global emissions-cutting regulations.   While the overall newbuilding market across all shipping segments fell to 2,403 orders, down from 4,405 in 2024, in container shipping new orders rose from 447 in 2024 to 547 in 2025, accounting for 49% of all gross tonnage and 68% of alternative-fuel new orders, according to classification society DNV.  “The resilience of the alternative fuels orderbook in 2025 is mainly driven by cargo owners who have set their own emissions reduction goals despite (the) market slowdown and regulatory uncertainty,” Jason Stefanatos, global decarbonization director at DNV, said in a market update Monday.  "We see (ocean carriers) prioritizing investments where there is a strong alignment between fuel infrastructure, regulatory certainty and commercial viability, particularly in container shipping, where LNG and methanol are supported by established supply chains and customer demand,” he added.  The chance for shipping to become the first global industry to implement emissions-reducing regulations was lost in October when  US-led opposition derailed the International Maritime Organization net-zero framework  at a pivotal Marine Environmental Protection Committee (MEPC) meeting in London. The net-zero framework was postponed for at least a year, and possibly longer if the US continues to lobby against it.  At issue is the price differential between conventional bunker fuels and greener fuels. A global price on emissions is key to narrowing the price gap, spurring demand and giving green fuel producers an incentive to invest in production.  The MEPC will meet again this coming October, and although the delay may hurt the broader case for investment in the development of alternative fuels and related infrastructure, container carriers and shipowners remain firmly focused on LNG as the top green fuel of choice in newbuild vessel orders.  Net-zero targets set by carriers  Most of the major carriers in container shipping have set net-zero goals and are investing heavily in dual-fuel vessels that support their emissions-cutting strategies despite the regulatory uncertainty.   Data from Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, shows that just over 4 million TEUs of capacity for LNG dual-fuel ships was on order in 2025 compared to 2 million TEUs of methanol-capable vessels  LNG as an interim alternative fuel solves multiple problems for container lines. It can reduce absolute carbon emissions by up to 20%, according to the American Bureau of Shipping, so progress toward decarbonization can be demonstrated to customers and the public. LNG is also more widely available than methanol, the supply of which is constrained and prices stubbornly high and will likely remain so due to IMO inaction on its zero-emissions framework. Maersk, for example, cited a lack of adequate supply when it  pivoted from methanol to LNG in late 2024  for its next round of 50 to 60 vessels.  DNV said in its market update that investment in fuel infrastructure was continuing at pace with 22 LNG bunker vessels added to the orderbook alongside new bunkering vessels capable of supplying methanol and biofuel. These developments signal growing confidence in LNG supply chains and emerging multi-fuel capabilities, reducing operational risk and supporting the economics of alternative fuel adoption.  With the IMO delay in adopting global decarbonization measures throwing interim greenhouse gas emissions targets into doubt, improving the fuel efficiency of vessels has attained even greater importance, particularly in Europe. The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) carbon tax and  Maritime fuel intensity regulations will come into full effect this year, and cutting vessel emissions will directly impact a carrier’s operating costs.  Contact Greg Knowler at  greg.knowler@spglobal.com .   

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

Container Shipping News

Maritime

Solid growth evident in LNG order book despite regulatory uncertainty 

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The delays began last month after the railroad transitioned its Louisville ramp to grounded operations, but NS says it is taking steps to mitigate the backups.</div>

The delays began last month after the railroad transitioned its Louisville ramp to grounded operations, but NS says it is taking steps to mitigate the backups.

<div class="phx-topic">Truck drivers have been facing multi-hour delays when picking up ocean containers at Norfolk Southern’s Appliance Park terminal in Louisville, Ky., though the railroad says conditions are expected to improve this week. To help ease the backups, Norfolk Southern opened a satellite lot early Monday at a nearby ContainerPort Group facility about nine miles away, according to a customer advisory issued Jan. 10. The delays at Appliance Park began after NS converted international intermodal operations at the Louisville terminal to grounded stacks in mid-December, and began requiring appointments to pick up loads. It’s the latest in a series of conversions across the railroad’s network, including in Atlanta, Chicago and Memphis. “At the same time, we launched a major repaving project (in Louisville) to improve pad conditions and stacking efficiency, while expanding our overall international footprint,” a Norfolk Southern spokesperson told the Journal of Commerce. “The holiday surge also contributed to the initial capacity influx, adding complexity to the transition.” Until last month, Norfolk Southern typically handled imports in Louisville using “wheeled” operations, in which ocean containers are placed on chassis and parked in designated spots. The shift to a grounded model, standard at most marine terminals, is intended to support long-term import growth. But the transition resulted in significant delays for truck drivers, often lasting several hours, particularly after the Christmas holiday. Drivers have been routed to staging areas inside the terminal and instructed to wait until directed to join long pickup lines. The Louisville terminal is a major inland hub for cargo moving through the Port of Virginia. <h3>Four-hour turn times </h3>An executive at a large drayage provider told the Journal of Commerce there were four-hour turn times and not enough lift machines in late December, and that conditions only worsened last week. “Trains are unable to get in; storage fees (are) still being charged; eight-hour turn times; lost containers,” the source wrote in a Jan. 10 message to the Journal of Commerce. Norfolk Southern said the satellite lot at the ContainerPort Group yard should quickly ease congestion at the main terminal. “We expect to reduce inventory at the main facility by approximately 50% and significantly cut driver dwell times,” the railroad said in its advisory. “As always, we will closely monitor performance throughout this process and pull additional levers to ensure long-term stability and support for this growing market.” Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a></div>

Truck drivers have been facing multi-hour delays when picking up ocean containers at Norfolk Southern’s Appliance Park terminal in Louisville, Ky., though the railroad says conditions are expected to improve this week. To help ease the backups, Norfolk Southern opened a satellite lot early Monday at a nearby ContainerPort Group facility about nine miles away, according to a customer advisory issued Jan. 10. The delays at Appliance Park began after NS converted international intermodal operations at the Louisville terminal to grounded stacks in mid-December, and began requiring appointments to pick up loads. It’s the latest in a series of conversions across the railroad’s network, including in Atlanta, Chicago and Memphis. “At the same time, we launched a major repaving project (in Louisville) to improve pad conditions and stacking efficiency, while expanding our overall international footprint,” a Norfolk Southern spokesperson told the Journal of Commerce. “The holiday surge also contributed to the initial capacity influx, adding complexity to the transition.” Until last month, Norfolk Southern typically handled imports in Louisville using “wheeled” operations, in which ocean containers are placed on chassis and parked in designated spots. The shift to a grounded model, standard at most marine terminals, is intended to support long-term import growth. But the transition resulted in significant delays for truck drivers, often lasting several hours, particularly after the Christmas holiday. Drivers have been routed to staging areas inside the terminal and instructed to wait until directed to join long pickup lines. The Louisville terminal is a major inland hub for cargo moving through the Port of Virginia. Four-hour turn times An executive at a large drayage provider told the Journal of Commerce there were four-hour turn times and not enough lift machines in late December, and that conditions only worsened last week. “Trains are unable to get in; storage fees (are) still being charged; eight-hour turn times; lost containers,” the source wrote in a Jan. 10 message to the Journal of Commerce. Norfolk Southern said the satellite lot at the ContainerPort Group yard should quickly ease congestion at the main terminal. “We expect to reduce inventory at the main facility by approximately 50% and significantly cut driver dwell times,” the railroad said in its advisory. “As always, we will closely monitor performance throughout this process and pull additional levers to ensure long-term stability and support for this growing market.” Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com

Rail News

North-American rail

Surface

Drivers battling delays at Norfolk Southern terminal in Louisville

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The reinstated service connecting the port with Colombia and the Dominican Republic will be supported by Savannah’s new customs facility that specializes in reefer cargoes. </div>

The reinstated service connecting the port with Colombia and the Dominican Republic will be supported by Savannah’s new customs facility that specializes in reefer cargoes.

<div class="phx-topic">Seaboard Marine is resuming a weekly service connecting the Port of Savannah to the Caribbean and South America. The service comes as Savannah prepares to open a new on-site customs facility intended to serve cold-chain shippers that are likely customers for the service. The Georgia Ports Authority (GPA) said Thursday that Seaboard has reinstated its direct, weekly shipping service between Savannah and the Colombian ports of Cartagena, Barranquilla and Santa Marta, along with Rio Haina in the Dominican Republic. The first Savannah call was on Jan. 7 by the 1,781-TEU Seaboard Gemini. The ship is expected to make its southbound sailing on Jan. 14, officially launching its schedule. “We are providing importers and exporters across the Southeast with improved transit times, greater schedule integrity, and the reliability they need to grow their businesses,” Piero Buitano, Seaboard’s senior vice president, said in a joint statement. Georgia Ports Chief Commercial Officer Flavio Batista said the service will offer cold-chain and transshipment options to and from the West Coast of South America. The service offers weekly Wednesday arrivals and departures in Savannah. The service will be supported by a US Customs exam site the GPA will open at its Garden City Terminal by the spring. The $44 million facility will offer on-terminal agricultural inspections in temperature-controlled environments, direct vessel discharge to inspection sites and multi-temperature zones designed for various produce types, allowing for 16 inspections per day, the GPA said. In 2025, Savannah handled 12,412 TEUs of imports from Colombia and the Dominicam Republic, a 21% drop from the year earlier, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Exports to the two countries out of Savannah totaled 10,923 TEUs through November 2025, PIERS data show, a 25% drop from the comparable 2024 period. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Seaboard Marine is resuming a weekly service connecting the Port of Savannah to the Caribbean and South America. The service comes as Savannah prepares to open a new on-site customs facility intended to serve cold-chain shippers that are likely customers for the service. The Georgia Ports Authority (GPA) said Thursday that Seaboard has reinstated its direct, weekly shipping service between Savannah and the Colombian ports of Cartagena, Barranquilla and Santa Marta, along with Rio Haina in the Dominican Republic. The first Savannah call was on Jan. 7 by the 1,781-TEU Seaboard Gemini. The ship is expected to make its southbound sailing on Jan. 14, officially launching its schedule. “We are providing importers and exporters across the Southeast with improved transit times, greater schedule integrity, and the reliability they need to grow their businesses,” Piero Buitano, Seaboard’s senior vice president, said in a joint statement. Georgia Ports Chief Commercial Officer Flavio Batista said the service will offer cold-chain and transshipment options to and from the West Coast of South America. The service offers weekly Wednesday arrivals and departures in Savannah. The service will be supported by a US Customs exam site the GPA will open at its Garden City Terminal by the spring. The $44 million facility will offer on-terminal agricultural inspections in temperature-controlled environments, direct vessel discharge to inspection sites and multi-temperature zones designed for various produce types, allowing for 16 inspections per day, the GPA said. In 2025, Savannah handled 12,412 TEUs of imports from Colombia and the Dominicam Republic, a 21% drop from the year earlier, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Exports to the two countries out of Savannah totaled 10,923 TEUs through November 2025, PIERS data show, a 25% drop from the comparable 2024 period. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Cool Cargo News

North American ports

Container lines

Seaboard restarts South America service calling at Savannah

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The commission’s review of an administrative law judge’s earlier decision on late fees that MSC charged for non-operating reefers found the overcharges amounted to a “practice” by the carrier.</div>

The commission’s review of an administrative law judge’s earlier decision on late fees that MSC charged for non-operating reefers found the overcharges amounted to a “practice” by the carrier.

<div class="phx-topic">The Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) has increased the total civil penalty Mediterranean Shipping Co. will have to pay for overcharging late fees on non-operating reefer containers from $16 million to over $22 million. In changing the penalty, the FMC determined that the overcharges were too frequent and persistent to be considered a billing mistake. In an order issued this week, the FMC’s three sitting commissioners reversed part of an administrative law judge’s February 2025 decision stemming from an agency investigation into MSC’s detention and demurrage charges for non-operating reefers (NORs). The investigation found that during 2021, MSC sometimes charged shippers late fees on NORs at the higher rate of an operating reefer container. MSC’s tariff did not outline the late fees for NORs. But it had an unofficial policy of billing customers the same late fees as a standard dry container as NORs served the same purpose. MSC said the overcharges were the result of problems with its billing software, which didn’t distinguish between operating and non-operating reefers. MSC refunded $2 million to customers for the overcharges. While the administrative law judge ruled MSC’s tariff violated shipping law for not outlining late fees on NORs, the actual billing was a “mistake” and not a “practice” that would indicate a knowing violation of the law. The judge cited that only 23% of the NOR invoices in 2021 had the overcharges and did not assess a penalty for the overcharges. However, the commissioners sided with the agency’s enforcement arm that the prevalence of overcharges, which occurred 2,629 times, did constitute a practice, even if they weren’t a willful violation of shipping law. The FMC’s decision said the overcharges occurred 10 times per day for more than eight months. “Even if mainly an unintentional result of a billing system error, the thousands of overcharges were too numerous and frequent to be considered anything but a practice,” the FMC said. “They were unreasonable charges for NORs, which do not require the enhanced care operating reefers do.” MSC was not immediately available for comment. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) has increased the total civil penalty Mediterranean Shipping Co. will have to pay for overcharging late fees on non-operating reefer containers from $16 million to over $22 million. In changing the penalty, the FMC determined that the overcharges were too frequent and persistent to be considered a billing mistake. In an order issued this week, the FMC’s three sitting commissioners reversed part of an administrative law judge’s February 2025 decision stemming from an agency investigation into MSC’s detention and demurrage charges for non-operating reefers (NORs). The investigation found that during 2021, MSC sometimes charged shippers late fees on NORs at the higher rate of an operating reefer container. MSC’s tariff did not outline the late fees for NORs. But it had an unofficial policy of billing customers the same late fees as a standard dry container as NORs served the same purpose. MSC said the overcharges were the result of problems with its billing software, which didn’t distinguish between operating and non-operating reefers. MSC refunded $2 million to customers for the overcharges. While the administrative law judge ruled MSC’s tariff violated shipping law for not outlining late fees on NORs, the actual billing was a “mistake” and not a “practice” that would indicate a knowing violation of the law. The judge cited that only 23% of the NOR invoices in 2021 had the overcharges and did not assess a penalty for the overcharges. However, the commissioners sided with the agency’s enforcement arm that the prevalence of overcharges, which occurred 2,629 times, did constitute a practice, even if they weren’t a willful violation of shipping law. The FMC’s decision said the overcharges occurred 10 times per day for more than eight months. “Even if mainly an unintentional result of a billing system error, the thousands of overcharges were too numerous and frequent to be considered anything but a practice,” the FMC said. “They were unreasonable charges for NORs, which do not require the enhanced care operating reefers do.” MSC was not immediately available for comment. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

FMC raises fine on MSC in case over non-operating reefers

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The materialization of any seasonal import rush and how carriers respond with capacity will give the container shipping market a better sense of first-half demand.</div>

The materialization of any seasonal import rush and how carriers respond with capacity will give the container shipping market a better sense of first-half demand.

<div class="phx-topic">The seasonal rush of US imports before Chinese factories idle in mid-February for Lunar New Year will be the trans-Pacific trade’s first major test of 2026, with forwarders and carriers divided on the strength of demand in a largely depressed market.  The materialization of any seasonal rush and how carriers respond with capacity will give the industry a better sense of first-half demand, reflecting restocking for post-holiday sales and demand for spring wares. The surge in shipping before Chinese production significantly slows ahead of the Lunar New Year has historically pushed up spot rates, giving carriers better standing in trans-Pacific service contracts. The National Retail Federation (NRF), in its monthly Global Port Tracker released on Friday, forecast the first month-over-month gain in import volumes (January from December) in six months, but noted that year-over-year import volumes would remain negative compared with quite strong import volumes early in 2025 as retailers frontloaded merchandise due to the expectation of higher tariffs. “There should be a brief bump in imports this month ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, but we’re otherwise headed into the post-holiday shopping lull that comes each year,” Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said in a statement accompanying the group’s import forecast. Monthly imports are down by double digits year overyear, but, encouragingly, bookings for Asia exports to North America have held up in the last two months, according to data from maritime visibility provider Vizion and data and analytics company Dun &amp; Bradstreet. Weekly Asia export bookings to the West Coast of North America began rising in December from November, averaging more than 150,000 TEUs a week on a four-week average compared with 77,000-80,000 TEUs per week in the prior month, according to the data. According to the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, which forecast the vessel arrivals and TEUs they will handle several weeks in advance, import volumes are peaking at the port complex at about 220,000 TEUs during the week of Jan. 4 and about 210,000 TEUs for the week of Jan. 11. Imports of 200,000 TEUs-plus represent a solid week in the largest US gateway. Imports are forecast to drop over the subsequent three weeks to about 175,000 TEUs, which is considered a normal seasonal lull, before returning to higher levels beginning in mid-February as freight that was loaded just prior to Lunar New Year lands. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="7f641553-97ec-4014-8e54-fef6408538d9"></dynamic-object></div>The timing of the pre-Lunar New Year cargo surge is affected this year by the later-than-usual holiday in Asia, which falls on Feb. 17. As a result, imports will likely increase in February and continue through the end of the month. The only question is the magnitude of the cargo spike. Even though many forwarders do not see a “surge” this year similar to the trans-Pacific surge experienced in January–February 2025, they say a modest increase in import volumes compared with last month is likely leading up to the factory closures in Asia. “There is no catalyst [for a surge],” one forwarder told the Journal of Commerce. “Importers are filling current orders, but they’re not pulling forward inventory.” According to the December Logistics Managers’ Report, the index reading was 54.2, down from November’s 55.7. “This is the lowest rate of expansion since April of 2024,” the report said. “I don’t see much inventory-building since the beginning of the year,” said Serkan Kavas, executive vice president for imports at the forwarder MTS Logistics. Ken O’Brien, president and CEO of Gemini Shippers Group, said the members of the group saw single-digit year-over-year declines in volumes in the fourth quarter due to the comparatively strong import volumes in 2024, although Gemini forecasts a 2% to 5% increase in trade growth in 2026. Industry adviser David Bennett said he is upbeat about the trans-Pacific market in the new year because he believes the largest US trade lane is normalizing back to the seasonal peaks and valleys the trade was accustomed to before the pandemic five years ago. “We have forgotten what that is like,” he said. “I see a nice pickup in volumes developing.” <h3>Spot rates higher </h3>Despite the year-over-year decline in imports this fall, trans-Pacific carriers were nevertheless successful in implementing a series of bi-monthly general rate increases (GRIs). Industry analysts and forwarders say carriers over the last several months have been able to keep a floor under spot rates through a combination of blank sailings and discipline because they agree a rate war would help neither carriers nor their customers. Resisting the urge to slash freight-all-kinds rates while consistently pepping up general rates increases has allowed carriers to push up spot rates and then watch them glide down. In the last four weeks, carriers’ strategy has produced a double-digit surge on a scale not seen since last summer’s rush. Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, pegged North Asia-US West Coast spot rates at $2,175 per FEU as of Thursday, up almost 42% from $1,270 per FEU on Dec. 12. The East Coast rate of $3,175 per FEU is up 33% over the past four weeks. The World Container Index as assessed by Drewry pegged Shanghai-to-Los Angeles rates at $3,132 per FEU as of Thursday, up from $2,103 on Dec. 11. However, a proposed Jan. 1 GRI is not holding, a carrier executive told the Journal of Commerce this week. “Bookings are not really strong. There is no space shortage,” the carrier executive said. Nevertheless, spot rates are considered by carriers and their customers to be at levels that should not push down pricing in the 2026–27 service contract negotiations that will ramp up in intensity this month and next. That’s because spot rates are well above the current 2025–26 contract rates that were negotiated by midsize shippers last spring. Those contracts were priced about $1,700 to $1,850 per FEU to the West Coast and about $1,000 per FEU higher to the East Coast. Still, given the muted demand compared with last year in the trans-Pacific, the environment appears to favor the customers. “Aggregate supply is up. Supply is going up more than demand,” O’Brien said. “That is the reality.” Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>.Contact Mark Szakonyi at <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com">mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The seasonal rush of US imports before Chinese factories idle in mid-February for Lunar New Year will be the trans-Pacific trade’s first major test of 2026, with forwarders and carriers divided on the strength of demand in a largely depressed market.  The materialization of any seasonal rush and how carriers respond with capacity will give the industry a better sense of first-half demand, reflecting restocking for post-holiday sales and demand for spring wares. The surge in shipping before Chinese production significantly slows ahead of the Lunar New Year has historically pushed up spot rates, giving carriers better standing in trans-Pacific service contracts. The National Retail Federation (NRF), in its monthly Global Port Tracker released on Friday, forecast the first month-over-month gain in import volumes (January from December) in six months, but noted that year-over-year import volumes would remain negative compared with quite strong import volumes early in 2025 as retailers frontloaded merchandise due to the expectation of higher tariffs. “There should be a brief bump in imports this month ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, but we’re otherwise headed into the post-holiday shopping lull that comes each year,” Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said in a statement accompanying the group’s import forecast. Monthly imports are down by double digits year overyear, but, encouragingly, bookings for Asia exports to North America have held up in the last two months, according to data from maritime visibility provider Vizion and data and analytics company Dun & Bradstreet. Weekly Asia export bookings to the West Coast of North America began rising in December from November, averaging more than 150,000 TEUs a week on a four-week average compared with 77,000-80,000 TEUs per week in the prior month, according to the data. According to the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, which forecast the vessel arrivals and TEUs they will handle several weeks in advance, import volumes are peaking at the port complex at about 220,000 TEUs during the week of Jan. 4 and about 210,000 TEUs for the week of Jan. 11. Imports of 200,000 TEUs-plus represent a solid week in the largest US gateway. Imports are forecast to drop over the subsequent three weeks to about 175,000 TEUs, which is considered a normal seasonal lull, before returning to higher levels beginning in mid-February as freight that was loaded just prior to Lunar New Year lands. The timing of the pre-Lunar New Year cargo surge is affected this year by the later-than-usual holiday in Asia, which falls on Feb. 17. As a result, imports will likely increase in February and continue through the end of the month. The only question is the magnitude of the cargo spike. Even though many forwarders do not see a “surge” this year similar to the trans-Pacific surge experienced in January–February 2025, they say a modest increase in import volumes compared with last month is likely leading up to the factory closures in Asia. “There is no catalyst [for a surge],” one forwarder told the Journal of Commerce. “Importers are filling current orders, but they’re not pulling forward inventory.” According to the December Logistics Managers’ Report, the index reading was 54.2, down from November’s 55.7. “This is the lowest rate of expansion since April of 2024,” the report said. “I don’t see much inventory-building since the beginning of the year,” said Serkan Kavas, executive vice president for imports at the forwarder MTS Logistics. Ken O’Brien, president and CEO of Gemini Shippers Group, said the members of the group saw single-digit year-over-year declines in volumes in the fourth quarter due to the comparatively strong import volumes in 2024, although Gemini forecasts a 2% to 5% increase in trade growth in 2026. Industry adviser David Bennett said he is upbeat about the trans-Pacific market in the new year because he believes the largest US trade lane is normalizing back to the seasonal peaks and valleys the trade was accustomed to before the pandemic five years ago. “We have forgotten what that is like,” he said. “I see a nice pickup in volumes developing.” Spot rates higher Despite the year-over-year decline in imports this fall, trans-Pacific carriers were nevertheless successful in implementing a series of bi-monthly general rate increases (GRIs). Industry analysts and forwarders say carriers over the last several months have been able to keep a floor under spot rates through a combination of blank sailings and discipline because they agree a rate war would help neither carriers nor their customers. Resisting the urge to slash freight-all-kinds rates while consistently pepping up general rates increases has allowed carriers to push up spot rates and then watch them glide down. In the last four weeks, carriers’ strategy has produced a double-digit surge on a scale not seen since last summer’s rush. Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, pegged North Asia-US West Coast spot rates at $2,175 per FEU as of Thursday, up almost 42% from $1,270 per FEU on Dec. 12. The East Coast rate of $3,175 per FEU is up 33% over the past four weeks. The World Container Index as assessed by Drewry pegged Shanghai-to-Los Angeles rates at $3,132 per FEU as of Thursday, up from $2,103 on Dec. 11. However, a proposed Jan. 1 GRI is not holding, a carrier executive told the Journal of Commerce this week. “Bookings are not really strong. There is no space shortage,” the carrier executive said. Nevertheless, spot rates are considered by carriers and their customers to be at levels that should not push down pricing in the 2026–27 service contract negotiations that will ramp up in intensity this month and next. That’s because spot rates are well above the current 2025–26 contract rates that were negotiated by midsize shippers last spring. Those contracts were priced about $1,700 to $1,850 per FEU to the West Coast and about $1,000 per FEU higher to the East Coast. Still, given the muted demand compared with last year in the trans-Pacific, the environment appears to favor the customers. “Aggregate supply is up. Supply is going up more than demand,” O’Brien said. “That is the reality.” Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .Contact Mark Szakonyi at  mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com .

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Pre-Lunar New Year demand to give trans-Pac market first test of 2026

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