<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Three unions representing railroad workers this week ratified contracts with major U.S.</div>

Three unions representing railroad workers this week ratified contracts with major U.S.

<div>Three unions representing railroad workers this week ratified contracts with major U.S. railroads, leaving only one union to not have finalized an agreement over a dispute that nearly resulted in a <a>national labor action</a> in early December. The pacts reached by the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers &amp; Trainmen, the National Conference of Firemen and Oilers and the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers brings the number of ratified contracts to seven. Five other unions have reached tentative agreements that their members must ratify.&amp;ldquo;The month-long ratification process has finally come to an end, and our members have made a wise decision,&amp;rdquo; said...

Three unions representing railroad workers this week ratified contracts with major U.S. railroads, leaving only one union to not have finalized an agreement over a dispute that nearly resulted in a national labor action in early December. The pacts reached by the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers & Trainmen, the National Conference of Firemen and Oilers and the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers brings the number of ratified contracts to seven. Five other unions have reached tentative agreements that their members must ratify. &ldquo;The month-long ratification process has finally come to an end, and our members have made a wise decision,&rdquo; said IBEW President Ed Hill. &ldquo;This agreement, reached in record time, will provide our members with a decent standard of living well into the future.&rdquo; The Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employees, the only union that has not reached an agreement with the railroads, did agree to an extension of the cooling-off period until Feb. 8. The threat of a national labor action was averted amid the peak holiday shipping season after two unions reached tentative agreements before the Dec. 6 deadline. RailResource

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North-American rail

Three Unions, Railroads Reach Agreement

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">While resuming the movement of vessels in the war zone is important, the shipping group says the president’s offer needs clarification. </div>

While resuming the movement of vessels in the war zone is important, the shipping group says the president’s offer needs clarification.

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<div class="phx-topic">Shipping association BIMCO is taking a wait-and-see approach to comments made by US President Donald Trump indicating the US would offer political risk insurance to all maritime trade in the Persian Gulf, where shipping has come to a standstill after the weekend attacks launched by the US and Israel against Iran. The hostilities are now in their fifth day, with Iranian retaliation against other Gulf countries expanding the war across the whole of the region. With oil prices on the rise amid Iran’s chokehold on the narrow Strait of Hormuz, Trump on Tuesday said he directed the US Development Finance Corporation to provide “political risk insurance and guarantees for the financial security of ALL maritime trade, especially energy, traveling through the Gulf.” The Truth Social post from Trump said the insurance would be available “at a very reasonable price... to all shipping lines.” But Jakob Larsen, BIMCO’s chief safety and security officer, expressed caution Wednesday, saying the proposal from Trump “has yet to be explained in full.” “Depending on the details of the proposal, it might help tip the risk/reward ratio and stimulate more shipowners to resume operations in the high-threat area,” Larsen said in a statement. He also said Trump’s offer for the US Navy to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz “sounds interesting,” but needed clarification. “Naval escorts would help reduce the threat for the ships being protected,” Larsen said. “That said, providing protection for all tankers operating in areas currently threatened by Iran is unrealistic, as this would require a very high number of warships and other military assets.” Although Trump’s offer for naval escorts did not mention container shipping, supply chains in the region <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/carriers-pause-india-middle-east-cargo-bookings-amid-persian-gulf-port-chaos-6179223">have come to a standstill</a> following the suspension of all services. “At some future point, if the Iranian threat has been degraded significantly, the relative effect of naval escorts will improve,” Larsen said. “This might push the security risk below the risk acceptance level of some shipowners and cause some ships to resume operations in the high-threat area.” The escalation of hostilities in the region is expected to push maritime risk insurance premiums through the roof, Dylan Mortimer from UK-based insurance risk adviser Marsh <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/shipping-avoids-middle-east-region-after-us-israel-begin-strikes-on-iran-6177596">said Sunday</a>, at the outset of the US and Israeli attacks. Contact Kevin Saville at <a href="mailto:kevin.saville2@spglobal.com">kevin.saville2@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Shipping association BIMCO is taking a wait-and-see approach to comments made by US President Donald Trump indicating the US would offer political risk insurance to all maritime trade in the Persian Gulf, where shipping has come to a standstill after the weekend attacks launched by the US and Israel against Iran. The hostilities are now in their fifth day, with Iranian retaliation against other Gulf countries expanding the war across the whole of the region. With oil prices on the rise amid Iran’s chokehold on the narrow Strait of Hormuz, Trump on Tuesday said he directed the US Development Finance Corporation to provide “political risk insurance and guarantees for the financial security of ALL maritime trade, especially energy, traveling through the Gulf.” The Truth Social post from Trump said the insurance would be available “at a very reasonable price... to all shipping lines.” But Jakob Larsen, BIMCO’s chief safety and security officer, expressed caution Wednesday, saying the proposal from Trump “has yet to be explained in full.” “Depending on the details of the proposal, it might help tip the risk/reward ratio and stimulate more shipowners to resume operations in the high-threat area,” Larsen said in a statement. He also said Trump’s offer for the US Navy to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz “sounds interesting,” but needed clarification. “Naval escorts would help reduce the threat for the ships being protected,” Larsen said. “That said, providing protection for all tankers operating in areas currently threatened by Iran is unrealistic, as this would require a very high number of warships and other military assets.” Although Trump’s offer for naval escorts did not mention container shipping, supply chains in the region have come to a standstill following the suspension of all services. “At some future point, if the Iranian threat has been degraded significantly, the relative effect of naval escorts will improve,” Larsen said. “This might push the security risk below the risk acceptance level of some shipowners and cause some ships to resume operations in the high-threat area.” The escalation of hostilities in the region is expected to push maritime risk insurance premiums through the roof, Dylan Mortimer from UK-based insurance risk adviser Marsh said Sunday , at the outset of the US and Israeli attacks. Contact Kevin Saville at kevin.saville2@spglobal.com .

Container lines

Container Shipping News

Maritime

BIMCO wary of Trump’s Persian Gulf shipping insurance offer

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Trump administration’s move against non-English-speaking drivers and non-domiciled commercial driver’s license holders could hit the drayage sector, but only after it trickles down from other parts of the trucking industry, experts say.</div>

The Trump administration’s move against non-English-speaking drivers and non-domiciled commercial driver’s license holders could hit the drayage sector, but only after it trickles down from other parts of the trucking industry, experts say.

<div class="phx-topic">Long Beach, California —Transportation leaders say port drayage truck drivers are unlikely to see an immediate impact on capacity should a recently introduced bill in Congress that would remove potentially thousands of drivers from US roads who may be operating illegally become law. Three drayage experts discussed the possible ramifications of the proposed Delilah’s Law and the Trump administration’s crackdown on non-English-speaking drivers and non-domiciled commercial driver’s license (CDL) holders during a panel discussion at the Journal of Commerce’s TPM26 conference on Tuesday. Panelists acknowledged the bill in Congress could impact other segments of drayage, including rail drayage, and that it could tighten overall capacity in the trucking industry if more drivers are disqualified from driving because of language-related or other safety issues. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6177004_0.1.jpg"></img></div>Supporters of the bill say it would close loopholes in the CDL process, ensuring that only citizens or legally authorized individuals can operate commercial vehicles. “I think you would see an impact on the rail, the rail area first, certainly like Texas, California, maybe New York, New Jersey, Florida,” said Brian Kobza, chief commercial officer with IMC Logistics. Kobza added that the combination of the bill being introduced and the current US Department of Transportation crackdown against drivers it believes are operating illegally or in the country illegally could remove more capacity and ultimately increase rates. “That’s the overall macro, in fact, that we’re positively looking for, [changing] that supply and demand, hopefully raise the rates, and let’s all make some money again,” he said, With regards to the US Department of Transportation crackdown against non-domiciled CDL holders, port drayage trucking companies and drivers could be impacted, but they said the initial impact will likely be regionally focused and not national in its scope and not specifically targeting drayage trucking companies. “I think the largest impact would probably be on the state of California,” said Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain at ITS Logistics. “There are certain states that are doing their due diligence on non-[domiciled] and pulling them out. There are certain states that aren’t, California being one of them.” “I don’t think we’re going to have a huge shortage in the very near term of any driver,” said Kobza. “I don’t see it affecting the drayage carriers in the industry.” He noted the truckload and less-than-truckload sectors are feeling the enforcement crackdown to a larger extent, while drayage could eventually be impacted later in the enforcement period. <h3>Hoping for bump in rates </h3>With regards to the economic performance of the US drayage industry in 2026, none are forecasting a spectacular year. The three panelists believe rates will creep up this year, in part brought on by a slight increase in consumer demand. “At the macro, it’s going to feel just tepid,” said Reed Kidd, CEO of EDRAY Collaborative Port Logistics. “And then, but within each of the verticals and ports and everything else underneath it, it’s going to be, I think, wildly different for different sectors of the business, and those groups that are winning are going to need to figure out how to do that in the market.” Kobza said one thing that would jump start the drayage industry is lower mortgage interest rates, and he cited the recent drop in 30-year fixed rates, which have fallen below 6% for those with good credit. “I’m saying one percent is good growth for 2025 that was without any new housing starts, nothing good in the housing sector at all,” he said. “It was all consumer demand.” Kobza pointed out that housing serves as a multiplier for the economy and trucking. “If you have just a blip up in housing in that market, you’re going to see a nice surge of business for furniture, for the equipment, for anything that’s to do with housing,” he said. “So I think that that’s the equilibrium that might push it up to a positive here [for drayage].” Contact Dan Ronan at <a href="mailto:contactdanronan@gmail.com">contactdanronan@gmail.com</a>.</div>

Long Beach, California —Transportation leaders say port drayage truck drivers are unlikely to see an immediate impact on capacity should a recently introduced bill in Congress that would remove potentially thousands of drivers from US roads who may be operating illegally become law. Three drayage experts discussed the possible ramifications of the proposed Delilah’s Law and the Trump administration’s crackdown on non-English-speaking drivers and non-domiciled commercial driver’s license (CDL) holders during a panel discussion at the Journal of Commerce’s TPM26 conference on Tuesday. Panelists acknowledged the bill in Congress could impact other segments of drayage, including rail drayage, and that it could tighten overall capacity in the trucking industry if more drivers are disqualified from driving because of language-related or other safety issues. Supporters of the bill say it would close loopholes in the CDL process, ensuring that only citizens or legally authorized individuals can operate commercial vehicles. “I think you would see an impact on the rail, the rail area first, certainly like Texas, California, maybe New York, New Jersey, Florida,” said Brian Kobza, chief commercial officer with IMC Logistics. Kobza added that the combination of the bill being introduced and the current US Department of Transportation crackdown against drivers it believes are operating illegally or in the country illegally could remove more capacity and ultimately increase rates. “That’s the overall macro, in fact, that we’re positively looking for, [changing] that supply and demand, hopefully raise the rates, and let’s all make some money again,” he said, With regards to the US Department of Transportation crackdown against non-domiciled CDL holders, port drayage trucking companies and drivers could be impacted, but they said the initial impact will likely be regionally focused and not national in its scope and not specifically targeting drayage trucking companies. “I think the largest impact would probably be on the state of California,” said Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain at ITS Logistics. “There are certain states that are doing their due diligence on non-[domiciled] and pulling them out. There are certain states that aren’t, California being one of them.” “I don’t think we’re going to have a huge shortage in the very near term of any driver,” said Kobza. “I don’t see it affecting the drayage carriers in the industry.” He noted the truckload and less-than-truckload sectors are feeling the enforcement crackdown to a larger extent, while drayage could eventually be impacted later in the enforcement period. Hoping for bump in rates With regards to the economic performance of the US drayage industry in 2026, none are forecasting a spectacular year. The three panelists believe rates will creep up this year, in part brought on by a slight increase in consumer demand. “At the macro, it’s going to feel just tepid,” said Reed Kidd, CEO of EDRAY Collaborative Port Logistics. “And then, but within each of the verticals and ports and everything else underneath it, it’s going to be, I think, wildly different for different sectors of the business, and those groups that are winning are going to need to figure out how to do that in the market.” Kobza said one thing that would jump start the drayage industry is lower mortgage interest rates, and he cited the recent drop in 30-year fixed rates, which have fallen below 6% for those with good credit. “I’m saying one percent is good growth for 2025 that was without any new housing starts, nothing good in the housing sector at all,” he said. “It was all consumer demand.” Kobza pointed out that housing serves as a multiplier for the economy and trucking. “If you have just a blip up in housing in that market, you’re going to see a nice surge of business for furniture, for the equipment, for anything that’s to do with housing,” he said. “So I think that that’s the equilibrium that might push it up to a positive here [for drayage].” Contact Dan Ronan at contactdanronan@gmail.com .

Port News

Trucking News

Drayage

Surface

TPM26: US trucking crackdown likely to have delayed impact on drayage sector

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Those who would be affected by the proposed $85 billion transaction either directly or indirectly had plenty to say about the matter during the first TPM26 conference since the deal was announced. </div>

Those who would be affected by the proposed $85 billion transaction either directly or indirectly had plenty to say about the matter during the first TPM26 conference since the deal was announced.

<div class="phx-topic">Long Beach, California — Union Pacific Railroad’s (UP’s) proposed $85 billion acquisition of Norfolk Southern Railway (NS) is being hotly debated this week at TPM26, specifically the impact the deal could have on beneficial cargo owners (BCOs). Supporters say combining the two railroads would create operational efficiencies and dramatically reduce bottlenecks in gateway cities such as Chicago, Kansas City and Memphis. Opponents counter that many of those efficiencies could be achieved without a major consolidation that would leave BCOs with fewer choices and increase the risk of service disruptions. “We have railroads on the western side and the eastern side of the country, and they can’t connect seamlessly and easily, which is an anomaly compared with most other countries,” said Jeremy Nixon, CEO of Ocean Network Express (ONE). “Anything that can join up and move the cargo through smoother, quicker, and take cost out is a benefit.” <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6177004_0.1.jpg"></img></div>ONE is a major customer of Union Pacific and has filed a letter of support for the deal with federal regulators. Handoffs between railroads in US gateway cities often take 12 to 24 hours. For example, if a BCO moves a container from the Port of Los Angeles to Cincinnati, a western-based railroad transports the cargo to Chicago. The train is then broken apart and the containers are transferred to eastern rail partners, often one by one by a trucker performing a cross-town dray move. Finally, the eastern railroad builds a new train for the Chicago to Cincinnati leg, loads containers on board, and departs. Under a merged Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern system, proponents say the process could be simplified. A train arriving in Chicago would only require a crew change before continuing east, potentially reducing the process to less than an hour. Shippers in parts of Michigan, Ohio and Kentucky could see some of the largest operational changes with a seamless handoff in Chicago. “We really want to hear the BCOs to find out where they want to go,” Kenny Rocker, UP’s executive vice president of marketing and sales, told TPM26 on Tuesday. “Where do you want to go? Do you want to go to Cincinnati? Do you want to go to Toledo? Do we have those services? We’re looking at it from that perspective, not trying to push something that’s not there.” <h3>Stiff competition in the way </h3>The UP-NS merger proposal still faces a lengthy regulatory process. The US Surface Transportation Board (STB) <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/stb-rejects-up-ns-merger-application-as-incomplete-6154074">deemed Union Pacific’s initial application “incomplete” in January</a>. UP plans to submit a revised application by April 30. If regulators determine that the second filing is “complete,” it would trigger a multi-stage review process that includes public hearings and testimony. A final decision would likely come in 2027. Major rail competitors currently oppose the deal, including BNSF Railway, Canadian Pacific Kansas City, Canadian National and CSX Transportation. Their primary concern is that a combined railroad would create an entity so large that a service disruption could ripple across the broader North American network. Opponents also argue that many of the operational improvements highlighted by supporters could be achieved through stronger cooperation between railroads. Jon Gabriel, BNSF’s group vice president of consumer products, argued that if Union Pacific ultimately spends $85 billion to acquire Norfolk Southern, the combined railroad would face pressure to generate returns for shareholders while servicing acquisition-related debt, potentially leading to higher rates for shippers. “You’re going to have less optionality. So, is it necessary to pay more to get something that could be accomplished without the premium?” Gabriel told TPM26 Tuesday. BNSF and Norfolk Southern <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/bnsf-norfolk-southern-unveil-faster-inland-service-from-pacific-northwest-5976500">launched a joint service</a> last year between ports in Seattle and Tacoma and the Ohio Valley, with only a quick crew change in Chicago. Gabriel said that proves the same benefits can be achieved through cooperation. Still, Gabriel acknowledged that the merger debate itself has brought attention to congestion in gateway cities, an issue the industry has long struggled to address. <h3>West Coast versus East Coast ports </h3>Another question raised during TPM26 is whether East Coast ports could lose traffic if the UP-NS merger goes forward. “We have a pretty competitive port structure that allows for lots of different service options in different ports,” Carl Bentzel, president of the National Association of Waterfront Employers, said Tuesday. “There is a legitimate and profound concern on foreclosure of business opportunity and long-term consolidation in ports.” Mike Steenhoek, executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition, said smaller East Coast ports could face pressure if a combined railroad shifts investment and service priorities. “The East Coast ports are all profitable, but some are more profitable than others, and if you are a company that’s allocating scarce resources to its optimum effect, you’re going to prioritize certain ports at the expense of others,” he said Tuesday. UP’s Rocker countered that Norfolk Southern has performed well in short-haul East Coast inland routes, a strength he said would remain after the merger. “I think they do a great job, and this merger won’t disrupt any of that,” he said. “We’re not going in saying we want to lose containerized business; that’s not a part of the mindset. The mindset will be to retain and grow as much as we can.” Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Long Beach, California — Union Pacific Railroad’s (UP’s) proposed $85 billion acquisition of Norfolk Southern Railway (NS) is being hotly debated this week at TPM26, specifically the impact the deal could have on beneficial cargo owners (BCOs). Supporters say combining the two railroads would create operational efficiencies and dramatically reduce bottlenecks in gateway cities such as Chicago, Kansas City and Memphis. Opponents counter that many of those efficiencies could be achieved without a major consolidation that would leave BCOs with fewer choices and increase the risk of service disruptions. “We have railroads on the western side and the eastern side of the country, and they can’t connect seamlessly and easily, which is an anomaly compared with most other countries,” said Jeremy Nixon, CEO of Ocean Network Express (ONE). “Anything that can join up and move the cargo through smoother, quicker, and take cost out is a benefit.” ONE is a major customer of Union Pacific and has filed a letter of support for the deal with federal regulators. Handoffs between railroads in US gateway cities often take 12 to 24 hours. For example, if a BCO moves a container from the Port of Los Angeles to Cincinnati, a western-based railroad transports the cargo to Chicago. The train is then broken apart and the containers are transferred to eastern rail partners, often one by one by a trucker performing a cross-town dray move. Finally, the eastern railroad builds a new train for the Chicago to Cincinnati leg, loads containers on board, and departs. Under a merged Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern system, proponents say the process could be simplified. A train arriving in Chicago would only require a crew change before continuing east, potentially reducing the process to less than an hour. Shippers in parts of Michigan, Ohio and Kentucky could see some of the largest operational changes with a seamless handoff in Chicago. “We really want to hear the BCOs to find out where they want to go,” Kenny Rocker, UP’s executive vice president of marketing and sales, told TPM26 on Tuesday. “Where do you want to go? Do you want to go to Cincinnati? Do you want to go to Toledo? Do we have those services? We’re looking at it from that perspective, not trying to push something that’s not there.” Stiff competition in the way The UP-NS merger proposal still faces a lengthy regulatory process. The US Surface Transportation Board (STB) deemed Union Pacific’s initial application “incomplete” in January . UP plans to submit a revised application by April 30. If regulators determine that the second filing is “complete,” it would trigger a multi-stage review process that includes public hearings and testimony. A final decision would likely come in 2027. Major rail competitors currently oppose the deal, including BNSF Railway, Canadian Pacific Kansas City, Canadian National and CSX Transportation. Their primary concern is that a combined railroad would create an entity so large that a service disruption could ripple across the broader North American network. Opponents also argue that many of the operational improvements highlighted by supporters could be achieved through stronger cooperation between railroads. Jon Gabriel, BNSF’s group vice president of consumer products, argued that if Union Pacific ultimately spends $85 billion to acquire Norfolk Southern, the combined railroad would face pressure to generate returns for shareholders while servicing acquisition-related debt, potentially leading to higher rates for shippers. “You’re going to have less optionality. So, is it necessary to pay more to get something that could be accomplished without the premium?” Gabriel told TPM26 Tuesday. BNSF and Norfolk Southern launched a joint service last year between ports in Seattle and Tacoma and the Ohio Valley, with only a quick crew change in Chicago. Gabriel said that proves the same benefits can be achieved through cooperation. Still, Gabriel acknowledged that the merger debate itself has brought attention to congestion in gateway cities, an issue the industry has long struggled to address. West Coast versus East Coast ports Another question raised during TPM26 is whether East Coast ports could lose traffic if the UP-NS merger goes forward. “We have a pretty competitive port structure that allows for lots of different service options in different ports,” Carl Bentzel, president of the National Association of Waterfront Employers, said Tuesday. “There is a legitimate and profound concern on foreclosure of business opportunity and long-term consolidation in ports.” Mike Steenhoek, executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition, said smaller East Coast ports could face pressure if a combined railroad shifts investment and service priorities. “The East Coast ports are all profitable, but some are more profitable than others, and if you are a company that’s allocating scarce resources to its optimum effect, you’re going to prioritize certain ports at the expense of others,” he said Tuesday. UP’s Rocker countered that Norfolk Southern has performed well in short-haul East Coast inland routes, a strength he said would remain after the merger. “I think they do a great job, and this merger won’t disrupt any of that,” he said. “We’re not going in saying we want to lose containerized business; that’s not a part of the mindset. The mindset will be to retain and grow as much as we can.” Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Intermodal providers

TPM26: Stakeholders put UP-NS merger proposal under the microscope

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The head of the Agriculture Transportation Coalition says US ag shippers face a plethora of changing tariffs and other measures that undermine their ability to tap overseas markets. </div>

The head of the Agriculture Transportation Coalition says US ag shippers face a plethora of changing tariffs and other measures that undermine their ability to tap overseas markets.

<div class="phx-topic">Long Beach, California — While US government oversight of ocean carriers has improved, tariffs and other policy uncertainty remain a main stumbling block for boosting US exports, according to the executive director of the Agriculture Transportation Coalition (AgTC). Speaking at the Journal of Commerce’s TPM26 conference, AgTC’s Peter Friedmann said the conflict in Iran has the potential to impact the ability of his members to ship hay and other ag products to customers in the Middle East. Ocean carriers are already beginning to issue massive surcharges on shipments into the region originating from non-US destinations. US ag exporters also faced similar surcharges in 2024 due to the uptick in attacks on ships moving through the Red Sea. Despite the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) at the time initially waiving its 30-day notice rule on some of the surcharges, Friedmann said his group was able to push back and ultimately have the agency enforce the 30-day rule. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6177004_0.1.jpg"></img></div>“I have contacted all the FMC commissioners already that this could be repeated [now], but apparently they learned the lesson,” Friedmann said. “They’re going to study it first and determine if there is an additional cost for the ocean carriers. So, that will be the first step, and I think it’ll be a healthy one.” In other areas, though, shippers face more uncertainty from the government. <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-supreme-court-rules-against-trump-in-critical-ieepa-tariff-case-6173568">The recent Supreme Court ruling</a> that struck down the Trump administration’s emergency tariffs does not outline whether shippers should get refunds for those tariffs, nor has the federal government said it would issue refunds. After a similar Supreme Court decision years earlier that blocked the US government from collecting the Harbor Maintenance Tax from exporters, Friedmann said it took four or five years to issue refunds. Big importers can more easily shoulder the legal costs and delays for refunds, but smaller importers will be more pressed to navigate the process, he noted. <h3>Trump not grasping unpopularity of tariffs </h3>Friedmann said Donald Trump’s enthusiasm for tariffs could get tested in the midterm elections this November by candidates who emphasize affordability, although he added the administration does not appear to be getting the message about the unpopularity of tariffs. After the Supreme Court ruling, the Trump administration said it would use a different legal authority to issue a 10% tariff effective for 150 days. Friedmann said volatile US trade policy undermines the administration’s goal of boosting US exports. “A lot of the problem is our tariffs on other products, but a lot of the problem is the retaliation by other countries,” he said. “Some of those tariffs are coming off, and I think that’s not going to be advertised by the administration, but I think we’re seeing that trend already, and we’re going to see more of it.” Trump’s other policy measures outside of tariffs also cause uncertainty for shippers, Friedmann said. The proposed port fees on Chinese-built and operated ships are due to come back in November after their one-year suspension. And Trump’s recent Maritime Action Plan to revive the US maritime industry also includes proposed fees on imports arriving on non-US ships and cargo preference requirements for US-built ships that could increase costs. “In global commerce, we can’t be off the global price by even one cent on our commodities going out,” Friedmann said. “If transportation costs build up and put us over, we’re out of the market.” Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Long Beach, California — While US government oversight of ocean carriers has improved, tariffs and other policy uncertainty remain a main stumbling block for boosting US exports, according to the executive director of the Agriculture Transportation Coalition (AgTC). Speaking at the Journal of Commerce’s TPM26 conference, AgTC’s Peter Friedmann said the conflict in Iran has the potential to impact the ability of his members to ship hay and other ag products to customers in the Middle East. Ocean carriers are already beginning to issue massive surcharges on shipments into the region originating from non-US destinations. US ag exporters also faced similar surcharges in 2024 due to the uptick in attacks on ships moving through the Red Sea. Despite the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) at the time initially waiving its 30-day notice rule on some of the surcharges, Friedmann said his group was able to push back and ultimately have the agency enforce the 30-day rule. “I have contacted all the FMC commissioners already that this could be repeated [now], but apparently they learned the lesson,” Friedmann said. “They’re going to study it first and determine if there is an additional cost for the ocean carriers. So, that will be the first step, and I think it’ll be a healthy one.” In other areas, though, shippers face more uncertainty from the government. The recent Supreme Court ruling that struck down the Trump administration’s emergency tariffs does not outline whether shippers should get refunds for those tariffs, nor has the federal government said it would issue refunds. After a similar Supreme Court decision years earlier that blocked the US government from collecting the Harbor Maintenance Tax from exporters, Friedmann said it took four or five years to issue refunds. Big importers can more easily shoulder the legal costs and delays for refunds, but smaller importers will be more pressed to navigate the process, he noted. Trump not grasping unpopularity of tariffs Friedmann said Donald Trump’s enthusiasm for tariffs could get tested in the midterm elections this November by candidates who emphasize affordability, although he added the administration does not appear to be getting the message about the unpopularity of tariffs. After the Supreme Court ruling, the Trump administration said it would use a different legal authority to issue a 10% tariff effective for 150 days. Friedmann said volatile US trade policy undermines the administration’s goal of boosting US exports. “A lot of the problem is our tariffs on other products, but a lot of the problem is the retaliation by other countries,” he said. “Some of those tariffs are coming off, and I think that’s not going to be advertised by the administration, but I think we’re seeing that trend already, and we’re going to see more of it.” Trump’s other policy measures outside of tariffs also cause uncertainty for shippers, Friedmann said. The proposed port fees on Chinese-built and operated ships are due to come back in November after their one-year suspension. And Trump’s recent Maritime Action Plan to revive the US maritime industry also includes proposed fees on imports arriving on non-US ships and cargo preference requirements for US-built ships that could increase costs. “In global commerce, we can’t be off the global price by even one cent on our commodities going out,” Friedmann said. “If transportation costs build up and put us over, we’re out of the market.” Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

Supply chain

TPM26: Volatile US trade policy undermines exporters: AgTC

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">With on-time performance close to the 90% target, Hapag-Lloyd has begun to remove the additional capacity initially built into the network to ensure 90% reliability, Rolf Habben Jansen told the TPM26 conference. </div>

With on-time performance close to the 90% target, Hapag-Lloyd has begun to remove the additional capacity initially built into the network to ensure 90% reliability, Rolf Habben Jansen told the TPM26 conference.

<div class="phx-topic">Long Beach, California — Gemini Cooperation’s steadily improving schedule reliability has enabled Hapag-Lloyd to take buffer capacity out of the network while maintaining reliable transit times, CEO Rolf Habben Jansen said Tuesday. The additional capacity was built into schedules when Gemini launched in February 2025 because partners Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk wanted to ensure 90% on-time arrivals “no matter what,” Habben Jansen told the Journal of Commerce’s TPM26 conference. “If you look at the product that we’re now launching in 2026 you will see that we have already taken some buffer capacity out here and there, and we will continue to do that because we want to be reliable, but we also want to have competitive transit times,” he said. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6177003_0.1.jpg"></img></div>“You need to find a competitive transit time, very high predictability and low variability,” Habben Jansen added. “If you do that, it allows our customers to say, ‘okay, if I put the most valuable stuff on that service I can take out a week of inventory ... It may only be a week of inventory, but a week is a lot.” Data from Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis for December and January shows that Gemini had a global schedule reliability of 89.5%, despite congestion challenges at European and Asian ports and severe winter weather. Chelsea Morris, vice president of global inbound transportation at Dollar General, said the discount retailer still needed to pressure-test the reliability in its supply chain, but the trends were positive. “We’ve already seen a demonstrable dip in the standard deviation associated with our cargo,” she told the conference. “When we determine how much product we need in the pipeline, that’s lead times. How much safety stock we need is variability. Anytime you can remove that variability, you don’t need that extra inventory.” <h3>Reliability on ‘a massive scale’ </h3>Morris said that although Gemini was the most reliable alliance, on-time performance was improving across the industry. “What’s really special about what is being done is that it is being done on a massive scale,” she added. “Often when working with carrier partners, it’s singular and it’s directional, but what we’re doing here is really making a difference for the entire industry. It means that we’re not flowing wasteful product through the supply chain that can then bottleneck and cause a lot of issues for all our customers.” Rebecca Ziebarth, vice president of global trade management at Ashley Furniture, agreed that more reliability in ocean schedules improved inventory management. “We want to be able to reduce how much we’re carrying and make sure that we can keep those costs in check, and being able to have the option to direct those raw materials to our manufacturing facility is a huge benefit,” she said. With Gemini’s schedule reliability remaining close to its 90% stated target since its launch early last year, Habben Jansen on Tuesday repeated a view he first expressed at TPM25 last year. “Our objective is to create more value for customers, and I’m firmly convinced that if you create value for the customer, then in the end, you will find a way to share it,” he said. “Whether and how that is then reflected, and how that comes about in the relationship, remains to be seen, but for sure, if we are consistent and always on time, for a lot of customers that has real value,” he added. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="4abe02d4-ed18-461a-ac0b-87ef52e3192b"></dynamic-object></div>Still, global ocean reliability has been on a steady decline since last October, according to data from eeSea, falling from 36.6% then to 25.4% in February. Oscar de Bok, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, agreed that consistent delivery of better services would, over time, translate into better pricing for service providers. “In the end, customers will pay for value that you create,” he told the conference. “If you can benefit by $1,000, then you will probably be willing to pay $100 more in order to get $900 for yourself. Once it has proven itself, then the value is visible and a customer will not want to lose it.” Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Long Beach, California — Gemini Cooperation’s steadily improving schedule reliability has enabled Hapag-Lloyd to take buffer capacity out of the network while maintaining reliable transit times, CEO Rolf Habben Jansen said Tuesday. The additional capacity was built into schedules when Gemini launched in February 2025 because partners Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk wanted to ensure 90% on-time arrivals “no matter what,” Habben Jansen told the Journal of Commerce’s TPM26 conference. “If you look at the product that we’re now launching in 2026 you will see that we have already taken some buffer capacity out here and there, and we will continue to do that because we want to be reliable, but we also want to have competitive transit times,” he said. “You need to find a competitive transit time, very high predictability and low variability,” Habben Jansen added. “If you do that, it allows our customers to say, ‘okay, if I put the most valuable stuff on that service I can take out a week of inventory ... It may only be a week of inventory, but a week is a lot.” Data from Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis for December and January shows that Gemini had a global schedule reliability of 89.5%, despite congestion challenges at European and Asian ports and severe winter weather. Chelsea Morris, vice president of global inbound transportation at Dollar General, said the discount retailer still needed to pressure-test the reliability in its supply chain, but the trends were positive. “We’ve already seen a demonstrable dip in the standard deviation associated with our cargo,” she told the conference. “When we determine how much product we need in the pipeline, that’s lead times. How much safety stock we need is variability. Anytime you can remove that variability, you don’t need that extra inventory.” Reliability on ‘a massive scale’ Morris said that although Gemini was the most reliable alliance, on-time performance was improving across the industry. “What’s really special about what is being done is that it is being done on a massive scale,” she added. “Often when working with carrier partners, it’s singular and it’s directional, but what we’re doing here is really making a difference for the entire industry. It means that we’re not flowing wasteful product through the supply chain that can then bottleneck and cause a lot of issues for all our customers.” Rebecca Ziebarth, vice president of global trade management at Ashley Furniture, agreed that more reliability in ocean schedules improved inventory management. “We want to be able to reduce how much we’re carrying and make sure that we can keep those costs in check, and being able to have the option to direct those raw materials to our manufacturing facility is a huge benefit,” she said. With Gemini’s schedule reliability remaining close to its 90% stated target since its launch early last year, Habben Jansen on Tuesday repeated a view he first expressed at TPM25 last year. “Our objective is to create more value for customers, and I’m firmly convinced that if you create value for the customer, then in the end, you will find a way to share it,” he said. “Whether and how that is then reflected, and how that comes about in the relationship, remains to be seen, but for sure, if we are consistent and always on time, for a lot of customers that has real value,” he added. Still, global ocean reliability has been on a steady decline since last October, according to data from eeSea, falling from 36.6% then to 25.4% in February. Oscar de Bok, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, agreed that consistent delivery of better services would, over time, translate into better pricing for service providers. “In the end, customers will pay for value that you create,” he told the conference. “If you can benefit by $1,000, then you will probably be willing to pay $100 more in order to get $900 for yourself. Once it has proven itself, then the value is visible and a customer will not want to lose it.” Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

TPM26: Buffer capacity being taken out of Gemini network: Hapag-Lloyd CEO

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