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<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Both of the primary ingredients to the traditional US intermodal peak season — a seasonal increase in demand and an increase in the number of TEU processed — are in question in 2021.</div>

Both of the primary ingredients to the traditional US intermodal peak season — a seasonal increase in demand and an increase in the number of TEU processed — are in question in 2021.

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<div>In a year in which one strange event has followed another, anything seems possible and normalcy seems to be far away. When 2021 is over, the US intermodal industry may look back and say, “What happened to the fall peak season?” There are two main ingredients to the traditional peak season: a seasonal increase in demand and an increase in the number of TEU processed. Both are in question in 2021. Seasonality thus far in 2021 has been abnormal to say the least. The typical post-Lunar New Year decline in US imports, for example, was missing in action, replaced instead...

In a year in which one strange event has followed another, anything seems possible and normalcy seems to be far away. When 2021 is over, the US intermodal industry may look back and say, “What happened to the fall peak season?” There are two main ingredients to the traditional peak season: a seasonal increase in demand and an increase in the number of TEU processed. Both are in question in 2021. Seasonality thus far in 2021 has been abnormal to say the least. The typical post-Lunar New Year decline in US imports, for example, was missing in action, replaced instead by a continual high tide of volume. Chronic disruptions and capacity constraints have greatly delayed cargo arrivals, which raises a question: How much of the recent “pre-peak” strength has been the result of shippers trying to move cargo earlier in anticipation of further delays? In other words, could some of the recent strength actually be due to volume borrowed from what would normally have moved later in the year, during peak season? US containerized imports typically peak in August. In a “normal” year, the number of import TEU entering US and Western Canadian ports in August is about 6.2 percent higher than in June. But US ports were seemingly running at capacity in June, so is it reasonable to expect their operations to flex up in July and August? Furthermore, even if the ports could unload the containers, wouldn’t that simply shift the bottleneck to the inland transport providers? Shippers moved around 822,000 containers via inland point intermodal (IPI) in June, approximately 38,000 per working day. Revenue moves per day in June were 6.9 percent below what was achieved in May. With containers stacked up waiting to move on all coasts, this was clearly the most that the system, in its current impaired state, could manage. In a normal year, IPI volume would peak in September at a rate about 3 percent above May. That would require an increase of somewhere in the 8 to 10 percent range from June, which is not very likely. Domestic intermodal is another story. In June, domestic revenue loads came in at 763,000, according to data from the Intermodal Association of North America, down 7.7 percent from March. In a normal year, June volume would have been about 1 percent above March. Equipment constraints accounted for the shortfall, according to carriers. Plunging equipment velocity has chewed up precious capacity, resulting in only 35,000 revenue moves per day. The peak pace last year occurred in October, with over 39,000 revenue movements of domestic equipment per working day. Domestic intermodal revenue moves per day will need to increase by more than 10 percent just to match last year’s results. Given these figures, it seems more likely that we will see a plateau this fall than a peak. What happens after the plateau depends on how much of the current strength has been due to freight moving earlier than normal. If the percentage is significant, then we might expect to see a more rapid decline in volume during the winter months. The effect of such a decline on the North American intermodal system will be muted, however, by the large reservoir of freight that will still be floating offshore awaiting port access. It is likely that the system will not get any significant breathing room until the second quarter of 2022. In the longer run, there is no reason to believe that the market fundamentals that were in place prior to the COVID-19 pandemic have been displaced. At the very least, we can expect a return to the previous norms. The headaches that shippers have experienced in 2021 will take further shine from the offshoring concept. Growth rates for imports will trail that of GDP. With substantial capacity promising to come online, 2022 may find the balance of power shifting back from the carriers to the shippers. For the carriers that have been most aggressive in the treatment of their customers during this current surge, things could get mighty uncomfortable mighty fast. Contact Larry Gross at  lgross@intermodalindepth.com .

Intermodal providers

Fall US intermodal peak more likely a plateau in 2021

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">As shippers realize that threats to service are not periodic but systemic, their focus on reliability will only intensify this year, writes Peter Tirschwell.</div>

As shippers realize that threats to service are not periodic but systemic, their focus on reliability will only intensify this year, writes Peter Tirschwell.

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<div class="phx-topic">This year – 2026 – will not be marked by freight rates collapsing due to overcapacity and shippers weary from tariff costs reaping a windfall in ocean freight discounts. Despite the largest order book in history and volumes expected to slow globally, that is not the scenario coming into focus for the year ahead, even if widespread Red Sea transits resume. Rather, according to several sources in recent weeks, a different picture is  Rates will likely moderate, perhaps by a few hundred dollars per container, and as shippers realize that threats to service are not periodic but systemic, their focus on reliability will only intensify this year. The year ahead, in other words, reflects long-term macro trends under way in containers: capacity tightening despite cyclicality due to infrastructure limitations and carrier actions to manage capacity, and shippers in response turning their focus away from rates and towards service to mitigate risk. “For 2026 as we move into this bid season, it won't be all about the ocean rates,” Chantal McRoberts of Drewry Supply Chain Advisers told a recent Journal of Commerce webinar focused on Asia port congestion.  “We know that we're in a more subdued demand environment. We know that the order book is large. We know that carriers are looking to secure volume, but the key to that is, what service are you providing? Shippers are  to factor that into their bid strategies,” she said. “The number one question that comes up from BCOs is, putting the rates aside, I need a reliable provider or partner to work with. I still have to answer to the CFO. I still  justify the cost, but I now also  ensure that I'm procuring my ocean freight to deliver my product.” According to eeSea, ocean reliability from Asia to the US West Coast has ranged between 42% and 48% since September. <h3>China ‘lacking port capacity’ </h3>Port congestion in China is a case in point about shippers’ growing concerns about the integrity of supply chains.  Still the source of 36% of US imports in TEUs in 2025, (down from 40% in 2024), according to S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, the country is encountering chronic congestion at Shanghai and Ningbo, its two largest ports, where ships typically are waiting two to three days outside the port. The fundamental reason, according to Asia sources over the past two years, was that while China ambitiously built port capacity ahead of demand in the years after entering the World Trade Organization in 2001, expansion has slowed at a time when its exports are experiencing a growth spurt.  “I know it's a shocker, and it feels unnatural to hear it, but China is lacking port capacity. It’s as simple as that,” Nils Roche, founder of  Advisory and recently deputy head of operations at Singapore-based carrier PIL, said on the Journal of Commerce webinar. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="615c1430-acb8-4c73-9884-61992f08d1d3"></dynamic-object></div>Limited port capacity in China is being called upon to handle surging volumes growing out of a macro-China economic strategy to diversify away from the US and overcome weakness in other sectors like real estate.  China in November surpassed the $1 trillion trade surplus barrier for the first time. Its share of global exports grew from 33% to 37% between 2023 and 2025, Maersk told investors in November. Influenced by export growth, S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence in November raised Mainland China’s GDP growth forecast for 2025-2027 by a quarter point, to 5.0%, 4.6%, and 4.5%, respectively. “The upward adjustments primarily reflect a more positive assessment of export prospects,” S&amp;P Global said. The intractable nature of port capacity limitations is further reflected in growing ship  and more containers needed to be moved per port call at ports that have not kept pace. “The ships that you have today, they are not the ships that we had 10 years ago. If you think about it, I used to operate , and they were the rock stars,” Roche said, noting his skepticism that technology-driven productivity improvements can meaningfully expand capacity. “Now you have 18,000, 24,000-TEU ships coming into the ports. A Panamax calling a port is a port call, a 24,000-TEU ship calling a port, it's a major event.” The difficulty ports have in handling the volumes and ship sizes being thrown at them is confirmed by port performance data. The S&amp;P Global Port Performance data is based on vessel turnaround time and normalized by workload, with underlying data provided by carriers. In other words, how many hours a ship is spending in port to achieve a certain move count. The data  ports on a global basis are operating well below pre-pandemic levels of performance. Due to port capacity limitations, Roche says the industry should temper its expectations for the impact of a return to the Red Sea, if that occurs this year (though there is no guarantee it will).  He said that if the Red Sea , “we should not expect a massive influx of capacity, simply because the lack of capacity, or the bottleneck if you prefer, will be transferred from the ocean to the land.” “I disagree with the narrative carried by analysts that shipping obey 100% of the laws of supply and demand, and that more ships mean more supply being half-blind to an entire ecosystem,” Roche said. S&amp;P Global is the parent company of the Journal of Commerce.Contact Peter Tirschwell at <a href="mailto:peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com">peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com.</a> </div>

This year – 2026 – will not be marked by freight rates collapsing due to overcapacity and shippers weary from tariff costs reaping a windfall in ocean freight discounts. Despite the largest order book in history and volumes expected to slow globally, that is not the scenario coming into focus for the year ahead, even if widespread Red Sea transits resume.  Rather, according to several sources in recent weeks, a different picture is  Rates will likely moderate, perhaps by a few hundred dollars per container, and as shippers realize that threats to service are not periodic but systemic, their focus on reliability will only intensify this year.  The year ahead, in other words, reflects long-term macro trends under way in containers: capacity tightening despite cyclicality due to infrastructure limitations and carrier actions to manage capacity, and shippers in response turning their focus away from rates and towards service to mitigate risk.  “For 2026 as we move into this bid season, it won't be all about the ocean rates,” Chantal McRoberts of Drewry Supply Chain Advisers told a recent Journal of Commerce webinar focused on Asia port congestion.   “We know that we're in a more subdued demand environment. We know that the order book is large. We know that carriers are looking to secure volume, but the key to that is, what service are you providing? Shippers are  to factor that into their bid strategies,” she said. “The number one question that comes up from BCOs is, putting the rates aside, I need a reliable provider or partner to work with. I still have to answer to the CFO. I still  justify the cost, but I now also  ensure that I'm procuring my ocean freight to deliver my product.”  According to eeSea, ocean reliability from Asia to the US West Coast has ranged between 42% and 48% since September.  China ‘lacking port capacity’  Port congestion in China is a case in point about shippers’ growing concerns about the integrity of supply chains.   Still the source of 36% of US imports in TEUs in 2025, (down from 40% in 2024), according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, the country is encountering chronic congestion at Shanghai and Ningbo, its two largest ports, where ships typically are waiting two to three days outside the port.  The fundamental reason, according to Asia sources over the past two years, was that while China ambitiously built port capacity ahead of demand in the years after entering the World Trade Organization in 2001, expansion has slowed at a time when its exports are experiencing a growth spurt.   “I know it's a shocker, and it feels unnatural to hear it, but China is lacking port capacity. It’s as simple as that,” Nils Roche, founder of  Advisory and recently deputy head of operations at Singapore-based carrier PIL, said on the Journal of Commerce webinar.  Limited port capacity in China is being called upon to handle surging volumes growing out of a macro-China economic strategy to diversify away from the US and overcome weakness in other sectors like real estate.   China in November surpassed the $1 trillion trade surplus barrier for the first time. Its share of global exports grew from 33% to 37% between 2023 and 2025, Maersk told investors in November. Influenced by export growth, S&P Global Market Intelligence in November raised Mainland China’s GDP growth forecast for 2025-2027 by a quarter point, to 5.0%, 4.6%, and 4.5%, respectively. “The upward adjustments primarily reflect a more positive assessment of export prospects,” S&P Global said.  The intractable nature of port capacity limitations is further reflected in growing ship  and more containers needed to be moved per port call at ports that have not kept pace.  “The ships that you have today, they are not the ships that we had 10 years ago. If you think about it, I used to operate , and they were the rock stars,” Roche said, noting his skepticism that technology-driven productivity improvements can meaningfully expand capacity. “Now you have 18,000, 24,000-TEU ships coming into the ports. A Panamax calling a port is a port call, a 24,000-TEU ship calling a port, it's a major event.”  The difficulty ports have in handling the volumes and ship sizes being thrown at them is confirmed by port performance data. The S&P Global Port Performance data is based on vessel turnaround time and normalized by workload, with underlying data provided by carriers. In other words, how many hours a ship is spending in port to achieve a certain move count. The data  ports on a global basis are operating well below pre-pandemic levels of performance.  Due to port capacity limitations, Roche says the industry should temper its expectations for the impact of a return to the Red Sea, if that occurs this year (though there is no guarantee it will).   He said that if the Red Sea , “we should not expect a massive influx of capacity, simply because the lack of capacity, or the bottleneck if you prefer, will be transferred from the ocean to the land.”  “I disagree with the narrative carried by analysts that shipping obey 100% of the laws of supply and demand, and that more ships mean more supply being half-blind to an entire ecosystem,” Roche said.  S&P Global is the parent company of the Journal of Commerce.Contact Peter Tirschwell at peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com.  

Container lines

Supply chain certainty, rather than price, will shape shipping in 2026

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The carrier has inked a slot charter agreement on a service that is operated by Taiwanese rivals Yang Ming and Wan Hai, as well as Singapore’s PIL.</div>

The carrier has inked a slot charter agreement on a service that is operated by Taiwanese rivals Yang Ming and Wan Hai, as well as Singapore’s PIL.

<div class="phx-topic">Evergreen Marine is strengthening its Asia-Latin America links with a slot charter agreement on the Asia-West Coast South America 6 service (WSA6) in a move that comes amid a surge of capacity on the Asia-Latin America trade. Antonella Teodoro, senior consultant for MDS Transmodal, said capacity direct services have increased almost 50% over the past year. “Having been relatively stable the past three years, scheduled deployed TEU capacity on the direct Far East-Latin America trade lane increased by some 46% between January 2025 and 2026,” Teodoro told the Journal of Commerce. Total capacity over the past 12 months soared to 4,112,888 TEUs compared with 2,812,495 TEUs in the prior period, according to MDS Transmodal data. “This increase is mainly due to the three new services that started in 2025, namely MSC’s Alpaca service, CMA CGM with Maersk on the SAES3/ASAS2, and HMM and ONE jointly initiating their FL2/SX2 service,” Teodoro said. Mediterranean Shipping Co.’s Asia to West Coast South America Alpaca service is the most recent of the three, having been inaugurated last September by the 4,600-TEU MSC Lome V, one of eight ships deployed on the route. Teodoro said the MDS data did not include services with intermediate calls in other markets including the US, Middle East and Indian sub-continent. By comparison, data from eeSea carried on the Journal of Commerce’s Gateway platform also shows a significant capacity increase on the Asia-Latin America trade. Actual deployed capacity rose 21% to 6.5 million TEUs last year from 5.4 million TEUs in 2024 based upon monthly capacity figures. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="0a4c1e7e-2956-4186-b6de-e38dce7f57e0"></dynamic-object></div>Evergreen’s inclusion on the WSA6 service coincides with a continued fall in freight rates on both the Asia-South America West Coast and East Coast services. Data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange carried on the Gateway platform shows spot rates from Shanghai to Santos were down to $1,195 per TEUs on Jan. 16, the lowest since January 2023, while spot rates from Shanghai to Manzanillo were down to $1,001/TEU, the lowest for at least two years. <h3>Operated by Taiwanese rivals </h3>Evergreen confirmed its involvement in the WSA6 service in updated service schedules published over the weekend. Taiwan’s top container line will take space on the service that is operated by rivals Yang Ming Marine Transport, Wan Hai Lines, and Singapore’s Pacific International Lines. Evergreen said the slot charter will begin with the 8,533-TEU Kota Manzanillo that is due to depart Ensenada on Feb. 21 with a scheduled 56-day transit to Shanghai. Other ships deployed on the route, includingYM Fountain andYM Success, have a nominal capacity of 5,560 TEUs. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="1ac6ad07-0f60-4109-bf91-3409ff42996a"></dynamic-object></div>The full rotation is Ningbo, Shanghai, and Qingdao in China; Pusan (South Korea), Ensenada, Manzanillo, and Lazaro Cardenas in Mexico; Puerto Quetzal (Guatemala), Buenaventura (Colombia), Callao (Peru), San Antonio (Chile), and Ningbo. The WSA6 service is Evergreen’s sixth linking the Asia and South American markets and the third connecting the West Coast of South America. Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/keithwallis@hotmail.com.">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>.</div>

Evergreen Marine is strengthening its Asia-Latin America links with a slot charter agreement on the Asia-West Coast South America 6 service (WSA6) in a move that comes amid a surge of capacity on the Asia-Latin America trade.  Antonella Teodoro, senior consultant for MDS Transmodal, said capacity direct services have increased almost 50% over the past year. “Having been relatively stable the past three years, scheduled deployed TEU capacity on the direct Far East-Latin America trade lane increased by some 46% between January 2025 and 2026,” Teodoro told the Journal of Commerce.  Total capacity over the past 12 months soared to 4,112,888 TEUs compared with 2,812,495 TEUs in the prior period, according to MDS Transmodal data.  “This increase is mainly due to the three new services that started in 2025, namely MSC’s Alpaca service, CMA CGM with Maersk on the SAES3/ASAS2, and HMM and ONE jointly initiating their FL2/SX2 service,” Teodoro said.  Mediterranean Shipping Co.’s Asia to West Coast South America Alpaca service is the most recent of the three, having been inaugurated last September by the 4,600-TEU MSC Lome V, one of eight ships deployed on the route.  Teodoro said the MDS data did not include services with intermediate calls in other markets including the US, Middle East and Indian sub-continent.  By comparison, data from eeSea carried on the Journal of Commerce’s Gateway platform also shows a significant capacity increase on the Asia-Latin America trade. Actual deployed capacity rose 21% to 6.5 million TEUs last year from 5.4 million TEUs in 2024 based upon monthly capacity figures.  Evergreen’s inclusion on the WSA6 service coincides with a continued fall in freight rates on both the Asia-South America West Coast and East Coast services.  Data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange carried on the Gateway platform shows spot rates from Shanghai to Santos were down to $1,195 per TEUs on Jan. 16, the lowest since January 2023, while spot rates from Shanghai to Manzanillo were down to $1,001/TEU, the lowest for at least two years.  Operated by Taiwanese rivals  Evergreen confirmed its involvement in the WSA6 service in updated service schedules published over the weekend.  Taiwan’s top container line will take space on the service that is operated by rivals Yang Ming Marine Transport, Wan Hai Lines, and Singapore’s Pacific International Lines.  Evergreen said the slot charter will begin with the 8,533-TEU Kota Manzanillo that is due to depart Ensenada on Feb. 21 with a scheduled 56-day transit to Shanghai. Other ships deployed on the route, includingYM Fountain andYM Success, have a nominal capacity of 5,560 TEUs.  The full rotation is Ningbo, Shanghai, and Qingdao in China; Pusan (South Korea), Ensenada, Manzanillo, and Lazaro Cardenas in Mexico; Puerto Quetzal (Guatemala), Buenaventura (Colombia), Callao (Peru), San Antonio (Chile), and Ningbo. The WSA6 service is Evergreen’s sixth linking the Asia and South American markets and the third connecting the West Coast of South America.  Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

Container Shipping News

Evergreen bolsters Asia-West Coast South America links amid capacity surge

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">New Delhi has invested heavily into freight infrastructure modernization through public-private participation and pushed digital logistics solutions along with sweeping policy reforms to ease trade processes in recent years.  </div>

New Delhi has invested heavily into freight infrastructure modernization through public-private participation and pushed digital logistics solutions along with sweeping policy reforms to ease trade processes in recent years.  

<div class="phx-topic">India’s maritime-focused economic development agenda is rapidly redefining the unnerving port flow experience that ocean carriers and shippers had to deal with out of the emerging market until a decade ago, industry stakeholders across the spectrum agree. New Delhi has invested heavily into freight infrastructure modernization through public-private participation and pushed digital logistics solutions along with sweeping policy reforms to ease trade processes in recent years.   Last year marked the influx of sizeable fresh terminal capacity into Indian trade, thanks to the launch of Phase 2 operations by PSA International in Nhava Sheva Port (JNPA) and the official opening of Adani Ports’ terminal in southern India, a transshipment hub designed to rival Sri Lanka’s Colombo Port, in addition to limited scaleups at relatively smaller ports. As a result, there is sufficient box capacity across major ports — pegged at approximately 35 million TEUs annually — to handle near-term shipping demand. Looking ahead, new terminal projects in various stages of development, including at Vadhavan — about 100 miles north of Mumbai — on a landlord model led by the JNPA authority; Tuna — off Kandla Port in Gujarat State — under a concession contract awarded to DP World; and Adani Ports’ ongoing expansions at Mundra Port, could push Indian capacity to over 50 million TEUs over the next five years, industry estimates show. Carrier and terminal executives who spoke with the Journal of Commerce have struck an upbeat tone on India’s port strides. “Capacity expansion, particularly in western and southern India, combined with modernization initiatives across major ports, has delivered tangible productivity gains, positioning us well to support the country’s ambitious growth trajectory,” said Bhavik Mota, Maersk’s director of regional ocean management for India, Middle East and Africa. “We are seeing faster turnaround times, enhanced operational efficiency, and infrastructure that can genuinely compete globally.”<div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="b5c7e656-d66d-4f23-8a9e-01c230d7d132"></dynamic-object></div>JNPA Chairperson Gaurav Dayal said extensive digitization and proactive gate practices have dramatically reshaped terminal operations in Nhava Sheva, India’s largest container dock by capacity. “Over the last decade, JNPA has evolved from a conventional port into an integrated trade facilitation hub,” Dayal noted. “There have been measurable reductions in vessel turnaround and container dwell times.” Improving rail fluidity has also achieved heightened prominence among national policymakers and port leaders as it draws more loads away from the predominant trucking mode in order to ease pressure inland, with a freight-only rail corridor project connecting the northern interior to West Coast ports at the heart of that modal shift effort involving an infrastructure outlay of over $11 billion. The 1,500-km double-line track able to offer double-stack container services at train speeds up to 100 km/h is set to operationalize the Nhava Sheva stretch next month, having already connected Mundra in stages. That access should help JNPA expand the share of volumes departing or arriving by rail from the current 15% to 25% in line with government target goals. Various agencies, including the World Bank, have acknowledged the wave of recent port flow improvements at Indian ports, broadly estimating average container dwell times at three days and vessel turn times at no more than a day. <h3>Need to strengthen multimodal connectivity </h3>While the performance within the four walls of port gates has markedly scaled up, stakeholders generally believe that moving cargo between the water and the land more efficiently remains an unfulfilled aspect of the supply chain in the context of growing vessel call sizes that typically involve high container exchanges per port visit. “The next frontier is strengthening multimodal connectivity beyond the port gates to fully unlock India’s cost competitiveness in global trade,” Mota said. That was echoed by Girish Aggarwal, managing director of APM Terminals’ Gujarat Pipavav Port. “As cargo profiles become more complex and supply chains more time-sensitive, the next phase of growth will require deeper integration across the logistics ecosystem, faster decision-making, and sustained investments in multimodal connectivity,” Aggarwal said. “The challenge is not just creating capacity, but ensuring predictability, reliability, and ease of doing business for our stakeholders.” Suni Vaswani, executive director at the Container Shipping Lines’ Association (India), said despite the significant capacity strides, the Indian port sector grapples with a string of long-standing barriers — ranging from high vessel tariffs and container scanner shortages to rail delays resulting from mixed train/common marshalling yard operations — to keep moving up the ladder of global competency. “Indian ports could do better with some improvements ... container lines have already diverted a significant portion of their transshipment volumes from neighboring foreign hubs to Nhava Sheva and Mundra,” Vaswani said. Approximately 60% of Indian containerized freight is shipped in and out of Mundra and Nhava Sheva, with the duo handling 16 million TEUs in 2025 out of the countrywide 26 million TEUs for the year, up from 15 million TEUs and 24 million TEUs, respectively, in 2024, data obtained by the Journal of Commerce shows. Additionally, with evolving “green shoots” in local manufacturing, container carrier heavyweights are increasingly diversifying investment interests in India beyond port-to-port shipping and inland verticals to vessel flagging and shipbuilding as government policies become more industry-friendly. Maersk, CMA CGM and Mediterranean Shipping Co. have already signaled that diversified push.  Contact Bency Mathew at <a href="mailto:bencyvmathew@gmail.com">bencyvmathew@gmail.com</a>. </div>

India’s maritime-focused economic development agenda is rapidly redefining the unnerving port flow experience that ocean carriers and shippers had to deal with out of the emerging market until a decade ago, industry stakeholders across the spectrum agree.  New Delhi has invested heavily into freight infrastructure modernization through public-private participation and pushed digital logistics solutions along with sweeping policy reforms to ease trade processes in recent years.    Last year marked the influx of sizeable fresh terminal capacity into Indian trade, thanks to the launch of Phase 2 operations by PSA International in Nhava Sheva Port (JNPA) and the official opening of Adani Ports’ terminal in southern India, a transshipment hub designed to rival Sri Lanka’s Colombo Port, in addition to limited scaleups at relatively smaller ports.  As a result, there is sufficient box capacity across major ports — pegged at approximately 35 million TEUs annually — to handle near-term shipping demand. Looking ahead, new terminal projects in various stages of development, including at Vadhavan — about 100 miles north of Mumbai — on a landlord model led by the JNPA authority; Tuna — off Kandla Port in Gujarat State — under a concession contract awarded to DP World; and Adani Ports’ ongoing expansions at Mundra Port, could push Indian capacity to over 50 million TEUs over the next five years, industry estimates show.  Carrier and terminal executives who spoke with the Journal of Commerce have struck an upbeat tone on India’s port strides.  “Capacity expansion, particularly in western and southern India, combined with modernization initiatives across major ports, has delivered tangible productivity gains, positioning us well to support the country’s ambitious growth trajectory,” said Bhavik Mota, Maersk’s director of regional ocean management for India, Middle East and Africa. “We are seeing faster turnaround times, enhanced operational efficiency, and infrastructure that can genuinely compete globally.” JNPA Chairperson Gaurav Dayal said extensive digitization and proactive gate practices have dramatically reshaped terminal operations in Nhava Sheva, India’s largest container dock by capacity.  “Over the last decade, JNPA has evolved from a conventional port into an integrated trade facilitation hub,” Dayal noted. “There have been measurable reductions in vessel turnaround and container dwell times.”  Improving rail fluidity has also achieved heightened prominence among national policymakers and port leaders as it draws more loads away from the predominant trucking mode in order to ease pressure inland, with a freight-only rail corridor project connecting the northern interior to West Coast ports at the heart of that modal shift effort involving an infrastructure outlay of over $11 billion.  The 1,500-km double-line track able to offer double-stack container services at train speeds up to 100 km/h is set to operationalize the Nhava Sheva stretch next month, having already connected Mundra in stages. That access should help JNPA expand the share of volumes departing or arriving by rail from the current 15% to 25% in line with government target goals.  Various agencies, including the World Bank, have acknowledged the wave of recent port flow improvements at Indian ports, broadly estimating average container dwell times at three days and vessel turn times at no more than a day.  Need to strengthen multimodal connectivity  While the performance within the four walls of port gates has markedly scaled up, stakeholders generally believe that moving cargo between the water and the land more efficiently remains an unfulfilled aspect of the supply chain in the context of growing vessel call sizes that typically involve high container exchanges per port visit.  “The next frontier is strengthening multimodal connectivity beyond the port gates to fully unlock India’s cost competitiveness in global trade,” Mota said.  That was echoed by Girish Aggarwal, managing director of APM Terminals’ Gujarat Pipavav Port.  “As cargo profiles become more complex and supply chains more time-sensitive, the next phase of growth will require deeper integration across the logistics ecosystem, faster decision-making, and sustained investments in multimodal connectivity,” Aggarwal said. “The challenge is not just creating capacity, but ensuring predictability, reliability, and ease of doing business for our stakeholders.”  Suni Vaswani, executive director at the Container Shipping Lines’ Association (India), said despite the significant capacity strides, the Indian port sector grapples with a string of long-standing barriers — ranging from high vessel tariffs and container scanner shortages to rail delays resulting from mixed train/common marshalling yard operations — to keep moving up the ladder of global competency.  “Indian ports could do better with some improvements ... container lines have already diverted a significant portion of their transshipment volumes from neighboring foreign hubs to Nhava Sheva and Mundra,” Vaswani said.  Approximately 60% of Indian containerized freight is shipped in and out of Mundra and Nhava Sheva, with the duo handling 16 million TEUs in 2025 out of the countrywide 26 million TEUs for the year, up from 15 million TEUs and 24 million TEUs, respectively, in 2024, data obtained by the Journal of Commerce shows.  Additionally, with evolving “green shoots” in local manufacturing, container carrier heavyweights are increasingly diversifying investment interests in India beyond port-to-port shipping and inland verticals to vessel flagging and shipbuilding as government policies become more industry-friendly. Maersk, CMA CGM and Mediterranean Shipping Co. have already signaled that diversified push.   Contact Bency Mathew at  bencyvmathew@gmail.com .  

Indian port flow boosted by infrastructure, technology investment efforts

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Citing “the complex and uncertain international context,” the carrier said proforma voyages through the Suez that were confirmed last month would remain diverted via the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa.</div>

Citing “the complex and uncertain international context,” the carrier said proforma voyages through the Suez that were confirmed last month would remain diverted via the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa.

<div class="phx-topic">CMA CGM on Tuesday said it would scale back plans to reroute three Asia-Europe westbound services through the Red Sea and Suez that were announced just last month. The carrier’s about-face is a glaring example of the delicate balancing act facing liners as they chart a return to transits through the Red Sea while also acknowledging that the returns may be short-lived. The move comes as Maersk <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/maersk-set-to-resume-regular-suez-transits-on-india-usec-mecl-loop-sources-6152441">last week announced its scheduled MECL service</a> from India to the US East Coast would resume Suez sailings from Jan. 26. Citing “the complex and uncertain international context,” CMA CGM said in a statement that proforma voyages through the Suez that were confirmed last month on Asia-Europe would remain diverted via the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa. “The CMA CGM Group has decided for the time being to reroute vessels deployed on our FAL 1, FAL 3 and MEX services via the Cape of Good Hope,” the carrier said in a statement, adding that the Suez situation would be regularly reviewed.   For carriers, the risks to crew and brand that come with a Suez/Red Sea return are high — despite Houthi rebels announcing in November that ship attacks would end — on top of the additional costs of diverting vessels should attacks resume.  There’s also the commercial concern of staying competitive with Suez transits offering up to 10-day shorter transits from Asia to Europe, and the larger risk of released capacity that would put immense downward pressure on rates. Carriers also must weigh the willingness of shippers and insurers to allow cargo to return to a potentially volatile route. “A hybrid routing is going to be the prevailing mode for this year, whereby carriers are going to start with more backhaul and lower-value cargo in Suez transits but keep on using the Cape of Good Hope for the higher-value head-haul voyages,” Simon Heaney, senior manager of container research at Drewry, told a webinar hosted by the maritime consultant Tuesday. “This is going to mean that more effective capacity will be drip fed back into the market over the course of the year and won’t happen all at once,” he added. “It will give carriers more time to assess the risk-reward position, prepare their future networks and prevent a total collapse in pricing.” Still, Heaney warned that overcapacity in the market would bring down rates, “regardless of how quickly Suez transits resume.” It was a position supported by transport analysts at HSBC, who said in a market update Tuesday that a swift return to Suez could cause a short-term increase in rates, but prices would decline through 2026. “Spot freight rates could fall significantly and also weigh on this year’s trans-Pacific [service contract talks] in April and May,” HSBC said. <h3>Some scheduled services take shorter route </h3>Ocean carriers have been increasing their transits via the Suez and Red Sea recently, encouraged by the absence of Houthi attacks that began in late 2023 and forced lengthy diversions around southern Africa.   The working approach so far, led by CMA CGM and with Maersk and other carriers starting to follow, has been to route India-US services through the Suez. CMA CGM is operating its service from India to the US via the Suez and Maersk will resume sailings for its MECL (India, Middle East-US East Coast) service via the Red Sea and Suez Canal from Jan. 26. The Ocean Alliance has scheduled all eastbound legs of its NEU4 Asia-Europe service from January and its MED2 Asia-Mediterranean service from February via the Suez. Getting shippers onboard will be a crucial part of the Suez-return puzzle. Some shippers tell the Journal of Commerce that directives from their C-suites prevent them from considering Suez voyages despite the better transit time. Other cargo owners, such as the supply chain director for a Europe-based shipper, have no problem using the Egyptian waterway.“Our global insurance policy isn’t significantly affected by shipping through the Red Sea, so if the services are there and the cost makes sense, then there wouldn’t be much stopping us from using them,” the source said. “But it all seems very tentative,” he added. “I think what we’re seeing is the tension between carriers wanting to attract cargo by offering a diverse mix of transit times, and a fear of crashing the market or a return to bunching at the ports in Asia and Europe.” Drewry noted that insurance costs were less of an impediment, with premiums expressed as a percentage of the vessel hull value currently about 0.2% or 0.3%, down from a high of 1% in the two years since the Red Sea attacks began. <h3>Two-route voyage schedule </h3>Drewry’s expectations of a two-route Suez-Africa voyage schedule this year reflected the cautious approach from carriers and alliances, as well as shippers that want to avoid valuable cargo being put at risk while factoring into contracts any resumption of the shorter route.“We know that depending on the direction of the voyage and the size of the ship, the multiple of the goods value versus the ship value can range from five to 10 times,” Heaney told the webinar.   Most of the Asia-Europe annual contracting has been completed for the year, with shippers and forwarders telling the Journal of Commerce that a return to the Suez has been factored in. “We have built some flex into our negotiations on these lanes this year that allows for a renegotiation in case there is a sudden rush back to the Red Sea route,” the head of logistics at a European retailer said. It was an approach supported by Philip Damas, managing director of Drewry Shipping Consultants, who said low rates were a given through 2026 while shippers were asking for two rates — one for current transits via the Cape and one for the Suez.  “That option makes it easier to later effectively apply the relevant rates,” Damas told the Drewry webinar. “Another option is to negotiate based on the Cape routing and have a specific review clause that when the Suez Canal transits resume fully, there will be a renegotiation. Having that clause up front is probably easier.”  Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>.   </div>

CMA CGM on Tuesday said it would scale back plans to reroute three Asia-Europe westbound services through the Red Sea and Suez that were announced just last month. The carrier’s about-face is a glaring example of the delicate balancing act facing liners as they chart a return to transits through the Red Sea while also acknowledging that the returns may be short-lived.  The move comes as Maersk last week announced its scheduled MECL service from India to the US East Coast would resume Suez sailings from Jan. 26.  Citing “the complex and uncertain international context,” CMA CGM said in a statement that proforma voyages through the Suez that were confirmed last month on Asia-Europe would remain diverted via the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa.  “The CMA CGM Group has decided for the time being to reroute vessels deployed on our FAL 1, FAL 3 and MEX services via the Cape of Good Hope,” the carrier said in a statement, adding that the Suez situation would be regularly reviewed.    For carriers, the risks to crew and brand that come with a Suez/Red Sea return are high — despite Houthi rebels announcing in November that ship attacks would end — on top of the additional costs of diverting vessels should attacks resume.   There’s also the commercial concern of staying competitive with Suez transits offering up to 10-day shorter transits from Asia to Europe, and the larger risk of released capacity that would put immense downward pressure on rates. Carriers also must weigh the willingness of shippers and insurers to allow cargo to return to a potentially volatile route.  “A hybrid routing is going to be the prevailing mode for this year, whereby carriers are going to start with more backhaul and lower-value cargo in Suez transits but keep on using the Cape of Good Hope for the higher-value head-haul voyages,” Simon Heaney, senior manager of container research at Drewry, told a webinar hosted by the maritime consultant Tuesday.  “This is going to mean that more effective capacity will be drip fed back into the market over the course of the year and won’t happen all at once,” he added. “It will give carriers more time to assess the risk-reward position, prepare their future networks and prevent a total collapse in pricing.”  Still, Heaney warned that overcapacity in the market would bring down rates, “regardless of how quickly Suez transits resume.”  It was a position supported by transport analysts at HSBC, who said in a market update Tuesday that a swift return to Suez could cause a short-term increase in rates, but prices would decline through 2026.  “Spot freight rates could fall significantly and also weigh on this year’s trans-Pacific [service contract talks] in April and May,” HSBC said.  Some scheduled services take shorter route  Ocean carriers have been increasing their transits via the Suez and Red Sea recently, encouraged by the absence of Houthi attacks that began in late 2023 and forced lengthy diversions around southern Africa.   The working approach so far, led by CMA CGM and with Maersk and other carriers starting to follow, has been to route India-US services through the Suez. CMA CGM is operating its service from India to the US via the Suez and Maersk will resume sailings for its MECL (India, Middle East-US East Coast) service via the Red Sea and Suez Canal from Jan. 26.  The Ocean Alliance has scheduled all eastbound legs of its NEU4 Asia-Europe service from January and its MED2 Asia-Mediterranean service from February via the Suez.  Getting shippers onboard will be a crucial part of the Suez-return puzzle. Some shippers tell the Journal of Commerce that directives from their C-suites prevent them from considering Suez voyages despite the better transit time. Other cargo owners, such as the supply chain director for a Europe-based shipper, have no problem using the Egyptian waterway. “Our global insurance policy isn’t significantly affected by shipping through the Red Sea, so if the services are there and the cost makes sense, then there wouldn’t be much stopping us from using them,” the source said.  “But it all seems very tentative,” he added. “I think what we’re seeing is the tension between carriers wanting to attract cargo by offering a diverse mix of transit times, and a fear of crashing the market or a return to bunching at the ports in Asia and Europe.”  Drewry noted that insurance costs were less of an impediment, with premiums expressed as a percentage of the vessel hull value currently about 0.2% or 0.3%, down from a high of 1% in the two years since the Red Sea attacks began.  Two-route voyage schedule  Drewry’s expectations of a two-route Suez-Africa voyage schedule this year reflected the cautious approach from carriers and alliances, as well as shippers that want to avoid valuable cargo being put at risk while factoring into contracts any resumption of the shorter route. “We know that depending on the direction of the voyage and the size of the ship, the multiple of the goods value versus the ship value can range from five to 10 times,” Heaney told the webinar.    Most of the Asia-Europe annual contracting has been completed for the year, with shippers and forwarders telling the Journal of Commerce that a return to the Suez has been factored in.  “We have built some flex into our negotiations on these lanes this year that allows for a renegotiation in case there is a sudden rush back to the Red Sea route,” the head of logistics at a European retailer said.  It was an approach supported by Philip Damas, managing director of Drewry Shipping Consultants, who said low rates were a given through 2026 while shippers were asking for two rates — one for current transits via the Cape and one for the Suez.   “That option makes it easier to later effectively apply the relevant rates,” Damas told the Drewry webinar. “Another option is to negotiate based on the Cape routing and have a specific review clause that when the Suez Canal transits resume fully, there will be a renegotiation. Having that clause up front is probably easier.”   Contact Greg Knowler at  greg.knowler@spglobal.com .   

CMA CGM backs off plans to resume Suez transits for Asia-Europe services 

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">A drop in air freight charter rates has put the option of project cargoes moving by air back on the table.</div>

A drop in air freight charter rates has put the option of project cargoes moving by air back on the table.

<div class="phx-topic">Air freight specialists are predicting buoyant times ahead for project cargo as shippers seek certainty amid geopolitical and trade upheaval. Shippers are increasingly balancing out the extra cost of using air freight against the penalties or costs of a project being delivered late if they opt for sea freight, experts say. Dan Morgan-Evans, group director for cargo at specialist air freight broker Air Charter Service (ACS), said he is seeing a pattern. “Some projects have a rush of air freight at the start, then use shipping, then there is a rush of air freight at the end,” he said. Project cargo freight forwarder Trans Global Projects (TGP) launched a dedicated air freight department in Bremen, Germany, on Jan. 5 to expand its capabilities for time-critical and complex cargo operating under its own International Air Transport Association (IATA) license. Swiss company Natco held an IATA license in Bremen before becoming part of TGP a decade ago, but since then TGP has been booking air freight from Bremen through other IATA licensed forwarders. “As a strategic investment, it makes sense to reactivate our IATA license,” Andreas Menzel, TGP’s managing director for Germany and Benelux, told the Journal of Commerce. “We do see some of our customers looking for quick solutions. With all the trade interruptions globally, including the Suez Canal and other impacts, air freight is becoming more and more critical to deliver time-sensitive cargo.” Bremen will serve as a hub for urgent shipments and engineered solutions, supported by Natco’s air freight and air charter expertise and TGP’s global resources, he added. <h3>Lower charter costs attract cargoes </h3>Uncertainty in the heavy-lift air cargo market is creating opportunities, said Morgan-Evans. “Last year there were all sorts of ups and downs and uncertainties in the market,” he said. “Our teams are buoyant about the idea of project cargo this year simply because air freight prices have dropped and the cost of an aircraft charter is much lower than in previous years. This should give us an opportunity.” He said that over the past five years, the cost of aircraft charters has been so high that project cargo air freight volumes were below pre-COVID levels. “With prices now down and choice and competitiveness in the market, pricing is more at a level that facilitates project cargo air freight movements,” Morgan-Evans said. Menzel added that uncertainty is a factor for TGP, too. “With all the global political and short-term changes, it is never easy to do a steady plan,” he said. “We have to adapt and adjust to specific impacts.” That said, TGP is focusing on some growing sectors in its planning, including power, oil and gas, mining and renewables. “For large projects like substations and power plants, the closer it gets to the ‘go live’ date, basically the more air freight is being requested, especially because in the finalization of projects, there may be missing or damaged material,” Menzel said. Morgan-Evans also pointed to major opportunities coming out of China and other Asia-Pacific countries. “We see a lot more movement from China into Africa, South America, Latin America and Europe, whether that’s construction work for big projects, oil and gas or mining – we can see projects coming up in all these sectors,” he said. While mid-January is early to offer any certainty on project cargo air freight prospects, Morgan-Evans said ACS was working on a number of international inquiries for project cargo. “I caveat everything with what Trump does, but we are pretty confident this will be a good year for project cargo for us,” he said. Contact Felicity Landon on <a href="mailto:felicity@felicitylandon.com">felicity@felicitylandon.com.</a></div>

Air freight specialists are predicting buoyant times ahead for project cargo as shippers seek certainty amid geopolitical and trade upheaval. Shippers are increasingly balancing out the extra cost of using air freight against the penalties or costs of a project being delivered late if they opt for sea freight, experts say. Dan Morgan-Evans, group director for cargo at specialist air freight broker Air Charter Service (ACS), said he is seeing a pattern. “Some projects have a rush of air freight at the start, then use shipping, then there is a rush of air freight at the end,” he said. Project cargo freight forwarder Trans Global Projects (TGP) launched a dedicated air freight department in Bremen, Germany, on Jan. 5 to expand its capabilities for time-critical and complex cargo operating under its own International Air Transport Association (IATA) license. Swiss company Natco held an IATA license in Bremen before becoming part of TGP a decade ago, but since then TGP has been booking air freight from Bremen through other IATA licensed forwarders. “As a strategic investment, it makes sense to reactivate our IATA license,” Andreas Menzel, TGP’s managing director for Germany and Benelux, told the Journal of Commerce. “We do see some of our customers looking for quick solutions. With all the trade interruptions globally, including the Suez Canal and other impacts, air freight is becoming more and more critical to deliver time-sensitive cargo.” Bremen will serve as a hub for urgent shipments and engineered solutions, supported by Natco’s air freight and air charter expertise and TGP’s global resources, he added. Lower charter costs attract cargoes Uncertainty in the heavy-lift air cargo market is creating opportunities, said Morgan-Evans. “Last year there were all sorts of ups and downs and uncertainties in the market,” he said. “Our teams are buoyant about the idea of project cargo this year simply because air freight prices have dropped and the cost of an aircraft charter is much lower than in previous years. This should give us an opportunity.” He said that over the past five years, the cost of aircraft charters has been so high that project cargo air freight volumes were below pre-COVID levels. “With prices now down and choice and competitiveness in the market, pricing is more at a level that facilitates project cargo air freight movements,” Morgan-Evans said. Menzel added that uncertainty is a factor for TGP, too. “With all the global political and short-term changes, it is never easy to do a steady plan,” he said. “We have to adapt and adjust to specific impacts.” That said, TGP is focusing on some growing sectors in its planning, including power, oil and gas, mining and renewables. “For large projects like substations and power plants, the closer it gets to the ‘go live’ date, basically the more air freight is being requested, especially because in the finalization of projects, there may be missing or damaged material,” Menzel said. Morgan-Evans also pointed to major opportunities coming out of China and other Asia-Pacific countries. “We see a lot more movement from China into Africa, South America, Latin America and Europe, whether that’s construction work for big projects, oil and gas or mining – we can see projects coming up in all these sectors,” he said. While mid-January is early to offer any certainty on project cargo air freight prospects, Morgan-Evans said ACS was working on a number of international inquiries for project cargo. “I caveat everything with what Trump does, but we are pretty confident this will be a good year for project cargo for us,” he said. Contact Felicity Landon on felicity@felicitylandon.com.

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