<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">This could be the best of times for Europe’s rail freight operators: the dominant trucking sector is short drivers and capacity, fuel prices are rising, and toll roads are boosting rates; meanwhile, barges still face congestion at Rotterdam and Antwerp. But can rail seize the day?</div>

This could be the best of times for Europe’s rail freight operators: the dominant trucking sector is short drivers and capacity, fuel prices are rising, and toll roads are boosting rates; meanwhile, barges still face congestion at Rotterdam and Antwerp. But can rail seize the day?

<div><div><img></div>The potential of Europe's rail sector was underscored by the 1.53 billion euro ($1.77 billion) bid by US investment bank Morgan Stanley’s infrastructure unit, Warwick Holdings, for VTG, which Europe’s leading railcar leasing and rail logistics company has rejected. (Above: A rail yard in France.) Photo credit: Shutterstock.com.LONDON — The rail industry, long regarded in Europe’s freight transport, particularly containers, may see an increased market share, if it can cash in on a rash of commercial and political opportunities. These could be the best of times for rail freight operators: the dominant trucking sector’s shortage of drivers and capacity, rising...

The potential of Europe's rail sector was underscored by the 1.53 billion euro ($1.77 billion) bid by US investment bank Morgan Stanley’s infrastructure unit, Warwick Holdings, for VTG, which Europe’s leading railcar leasing and rail logistics company has rejected. (Above: A rail yard in France.) Photo credit: Shutterstock.com. LONDON — The rail industry, long regarded in Europe’s freight transport, particularly containers, may see an increased market share, if it can cash in on a rash of commercial and political opportunities. These could be the best of times for rail freight operators: the dominant trucking sector’s shortage of drivers and capacity, rising fuel prices, and toll roads are boosting rates; barges still face congestion at Rotterdam and Antwerp , Europe’s top ocean container hubs, and plans to significantly increase inland waterway capacity are at a virtual standstill. Also, the “love affair” between rail and governments and shippers is deepening amid growing fears of surging carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from trucks on increasingly congested roads across the continent. Market share opportunities There are plenty of opportunities for the rail sector to boost its European transport market share — a market that has grown by nearly 25 percent over the past 20 years and is projected to expand by 50 percent by 2050, according to the European Commission. The potential of the rail sector was underscored by the 1.53 billion euro ($1.77 billion) bid by US investment bank Morgan Stanley’s infrastructure unit, Warwick Holdings, for VTG, which Europe’s leading railcar leasing and rail logistics company has rejected. Warwick Holdings — which has a 27 percent stake in Hamburg-based VTG — has agreed to acquire the 20 percent holding of Kuehne Holding, headed by Klaus Michael Kuehne, who has a 25 percent stake in ocean carrier Hapag-Lloyd. VTG’s fleet grew by around 11,000 to more than 94,000 railcars earlier this month when it closed on the 780 million euro acquisition of Paris-based Nacco Group, the European rail leasing unit of CIT Group, the New York-based financial holding company. Still, the rail sector’s woes are highlighted by the negative news from the continent’s two leading rail companies. Germany’s DB Cargo’s first-half operating loss jumped to 127 million euro from 28 million euro a year earlier, as revenue slipped 2.2 percent to 2.255 billion euro on a 6.7 percent drop in traffic. “Our rail freight business did not have an easy first half of 2018” due to rail strikes in France and a serious storm in January, according to CEO Richard Lutz. “We also faced problems of our own making. However, we will be addressing those problems in a lasting way.” The company is expected to post a full-year loss of 150 million euro to 200 million euro. The freight unit of SNCF, France’s state-owned railway, which has racked up debts of more than 4 billion euro, was hard hit by a wave of strikes earlier in the year in response to the government’s planned reforms to modernize its heavily loss-making parent. The reforms, which are the biggest shake up since the French rail industry was nationalized in the 1930s, focus mainly on the passenger business and are unlikely to have much of an impact on SNCF’s freight unit, which has been steadily losing traffic to private firms, including foreign operators, since the EU liberalized the rail cargo market. Rail rays of light There have been some positive signs, however, with growth in European rail freight transport in 2017 continuing into this year, particularly in Poland and Sweden. “Development was supported by strong demand for capital goods and dynamic trading. Positive momentum was generated mainly from transport through the North Sea ports of Antwerp, Rotterdam, and Hamburg,” according to Deutsche Bahn. Rail freight shuttles through the cross channel tunnel linking the UK and France that compete with roll-on, roll-off (ro-ro) ships are breaking records, despite fears that London and Brussels won’t reach agreement over Brexit — the UK’s exit from the European Union on March 29, 2019. Getlink, the operator of the freight shuttle, posted its best-ever third quarter with nearly 139,000 trucks transported in September, the fifth consecutive monthly record that has pushed total traffic in the first nine months of the year to just short of 1.26 million trucks, an increase of 3 percent from the same period in 2017. But the bottom line is that despite government support across Europe for environmentally friendly rail transport and the steady launch of new services by private rail operators and multimodal forwarders, rail has failed to squeeze market share from rival modes, particularly road transport. Rail hasn’t capitalized on the growth of freight traffic in Germany, as trucks have boosted their market share despite widespread road construction, impassable bridges, and increasing traffic jams along with rising fuel costs, driver shortages, and the resulting capacity crunch. However, the rail industry has another chance to up its game because the German government will raise distance-based road tolls next year, just months after it extended the total toll route network from 15,000 kilometers (9,320 miles) to 52,000 kilometers. Berlin also plans to halve rail track access charges in a bid to shift traffic off the crowded highways. Nevertheless, a major rail freight boost isn’t in the cards because top operator Deutsche Bahn is seeking to trim its investment spending as its debt approaches 20 billion euro. But Deutsche Bahn, which runs Europe’s biggest rail cargo business, is upping its 10-year-old Europe-China service with the recent establishment of a new unit, DB Cargo Eurasia, which has a goal shifting more freight onto the route and hitting its 2020 target of 100,000 containers, up from an expected 90,000 this year. Deutsche Bahn is also testing a sea route between Kaliningrad, the Russian enclave between Poland and Lithuania, and the German port of Rostock, in response to shippers’ requests so it can ship goods from the Baltic to the rest of Europe with greater speed and flexibility. But the outlook for some European countries isn’t looking good, particularly for the Netherlands, whose 7,300-kilometer network is almost full. There is no point in building new lines, according to infrastructure manager ProRail, which is calling for improved utilization of the current capacity to handle an expected 8 percent increase in traffic in 2019. Europe rail success stories The international outlook is more bullish, however, with the number of trains on the Betuwe route, the 4.7 billion-euro dedicated freight link to Germany, jumped 17 percent in 2017 to 25,100, after two consecutive years of decline, due to construction work on the German side of the border. Traffic on the 11-year-old track is expected to reach 34,500 to 37,500 trains in 2025 after the link with Germany, the port of Rotterdam’s dominant hinterland market, is completed and rise to a peak of 37,000 to 43,000 trains in 2030. Further, there are some success stories across the sector that are hidden by rail’s failure to boost its European market share. Swiss intermodal operator Hupac, which operates about 110 trains a day, boosted first-half traffic by 8 percent from a year earlier to 805,693 TEU, helped by a 9.4 percent jump in trans-alpine traffic. ERS Railways, which was acquired from Genesee & Wyoming Inc. along with the US firm’s 47 percent stake in Hamburg-based rail company boxXpress, in June, contributed to the first-half increase by extending Hupac’s hinterland port network from Rotterdam and Antwerp to Hamburg. The port of Hamburg is also a stand out success with about 200 daily rail services hauling 2.4 million TEU a year, accounting for 42 percent of its hinterland traffic, including bulk cargo. Rail is likely to boost its market share, due to the lack of barge transport and increasingly congested roads leading to Europe’s third-largest container port. In addition, new services continue to be launched on a regular basis, underscoring the appeal of rail to shippers, as well as ports, who are desperate to ease the flow of containers to and from their hinterlands. France Helvetia Express, a thrice-weekly rail shuttle connecting France’s top ocean container hubs Le Havre and Marseille-Fos, commenced operations in September, targeting the estimated 350,000 to 400,000 TEU of Swiss container traffic passing through French ports each year that is transported to the landlocked nation mainly by trucks. Also, the first direct shuttle service between Rotterdam and Budapest was launched this month by Rail Cargo Operator (RCO), which says it is responding to demand from shippers. RCO added that the frequency could increase, as the Hungarian capital becomes an increasingly important transport hub, with onward shipment to Romania and Turkey and connections with the rapidly growing Europe-China rail route. Ocean carriers and shortsea lines are also boosting their rail services in response to growing shipper demand. Mediterranean Shipping Co., the world’s number two container line, has just launched a new rail service connecting Spanish agricultural producers and other exporters to international markets via the port of Valencia, a major Mediterranean hub. It complements MSC’s rail service between Seville and Sines, Portugal, which was launched earlier in the year. P&O Ferrymasters, a UK ro-ro shipping line, has just acquired 150 huckepack trailers to meet rising demand on its route between the port of Rotterdam and Poznan, Poland, which added a sixth weekly service in the summer. The ro-ro subsidiary of P&O Ferries, which is owned by Dubai’s DP World, also has a rail terminal in the Romanian city of Oradea, which facilitates the onward movement of freight to the UK from Asian countries via China’s Silk Road rail route. The company, which has a fleet of more than 20 ships, includes rail along with road and sea links in its services across 13 European countries with annual traffic of about 2.3 million freight units. More contentious rail projects Meanwhile, Italy is investing in its rail network and rail facilities at its ports in a bid to become a European gateway on the Chinese route, according to Maurizio Gentile, CEO of the country’s rail infrastructure group. The overwhelming majority of cargo arriving in Italy from China through its ports is transported inland by trucks, but “in order to generate a modal shift to rail, Italy must make intermodal transport more competitive by addressing bottlenecks at transshipment points.” There are doubts, however, whether Italy’s populist government, which took power in May, is willing to invest in large public infrastructure projects approved by previous administrations. Most at threat is the multibillion-euro 57-kilometer rail tunnel under the Alps linking Turin and Lyon, which claims it will at least halve the 4 million trucks transiting the roads south of the Alps between France and Italy annually. But Italy’s Infrastructure Minister Danilo Toninelli has said that when he studies projects such as the Turin-Lyon tunnel, “I can only feel anger and disgust for how the money of Italian citizens has been wasted.” Toninelli has commissioned a cost-benefit analysis for the project before making a final decision amid divisions in the government. The League, the junior partner in the governing coalition, backs the project while the larger Five Star Movement attacked it during the election campaign, claiming it made sense 30 years ago but not now. Politics also play a role in the planned reopening of the Iron Rhine rail link between the port of Antwerp and Germany’s main industrial region, which was closed in 1991. The problem is that the track, which would shift cargo from clogged highways between Belgium and Germany, passes through the province of Limburg, Netherlands, and requires investment by the Dutch government in a project that risks undermining the competitiveness of the port of Rotterdam. The port of Antwerp faced a similar problem a few years ago when the Dutch Parliament took its time to approve the deepening of a stretch of the Scheldt River that passes through the Netherlands and is the Belgian inland port’s access to the North Sea. Without deepening, the largest ships could only reach Antwerp at high tide, sparking speculation that the Dutch delays were a ploy to boost Rotterdam’s position as it was expanding its terminals to handle mega-ships. Rail’s attraction to shippers was highlighted earlier this month when an estimated 15,000 people attended a rally in Valencia demanding the European Union fund a corridor linking the inland region of Aragon to Spain’s Mediterranean and Atlantic ports. But the industry, particularly its state-owned sector, has to get its act together, if it is to substantially eat into trucking’s dominant and solid market share. Contact Bruce Barnard at brucebarnard47@hotmail.com .

Rail News

Europe rail projects, road tolls come online amid truck scarcity

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">With two attacks on commercial vessels in recent days, including one that killed three mariners, any thought that the risk in the Red Sea was easing to the point the Suez route might be restored in the near future has vanished.</div>

With two attacks on commercial vessels in recent days, including one that killed three mariners, any thought that the risk in the Red Sea was easing to the point the Suez route might be restored in the near future has vanished.

Feature image

<div class="phx-topic">With no attacks on shipping off the Yemeni coast since December — that is, until two strikes over the past three days — a feeling was taking hold among some ocean carriers that the threat posed by Houthi militants was greatly diminished. And as the threat diminished it would become more difficult for carriers to justify the diversions around southern Africa, which for the past 18 months have absorbed an estimated 10% of global capacity, extending transit times and putting carriers in a stronger position to absorb an influx of new capacity. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6040921_0.1.jpg"></img></div>Now with two attacks in recent days, including one that killed three mariners, any thought that the risk was easing to the point the Suez route might be reopened in the near future has vanished. “The dynamic in the Red Sea has changed materially as compared to expectations roughly a month ago in which there had been a growing view that Red Sea transits would start to pick up following the US-Houthi agreement and the long period in which merchant ships had not been attacked,” Jefferies wrote on July 8. While the Houthi militia may have held fire for several months, the restraint should not be taken as a sign the group’s ability to strike is diminished. Although such a conclusion could be inferred from military setbacks experienced across the network of Iran-backed militia and states such as Syria, in reality, the Houthis remain a lethal force, as they showed this week, analysts say. “The most recent Houthi attacks … allow them to demonstrate that, unlike Iran and its other proxy groups in the region, they remain undeterred by the threat of US or Israeli military confrontation,” Jack Kennedy, head of Middle East and North Africa country risk at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, told the Journal of Commerce Wednesday. Israel and the US have upped their strikes on rebels in Yemen in recent months. But without troops on the ground to uproot the rebels, Kennedy has been saying for more than a year that it would be extremely difficult to eliminate the group as a danger to shipping through aerial military action alone. “Houthi missile attack capabilities are highly decentralized across the territory they control,” Kennedy said. “These are unlikely to be fully replenished to levels in place prior to US-led and Israeli airstrikes, but seizures of weapons shipments in the Red Sea and the Houthis’ own industrial manufacturing capacity suggest that they will have been able to partially rebuild weapons stockpiles.” Kennedy added that the original spark for Houthi attacks on shipping — Israeli operations in Gaza — remains a core rationale for their strikes. “It is highly likely that attack attempts on vessels will continue while Israeli military operations in Gaza are ongoing,” he said. The result is an extended timeline, quite possibly into 2026, for any large-scale return to Suez routings. “With the developments over the past few days there is not much chance of a reversal back to a Suez routing for the major container lines in the short to medium term,” shipping analyst and Journal of Commerce contributor Lars Jensen wrote on LinkedIn this week. Added Kennedy: “We expect that Houthi attack activity will continue through 2025 at least.” <h3>Ongoing disruption post-COVID </h3>For ocean carriers who didn’t create the crisis and yet are largely immune from criticism for continuing the longer routings around Africa to protect their crews, ships and cargo, the crisis is part of a larger narrative of ongoing post-COVID-19 disruption, alongside basic supply and demand, underpinning market dynamics. Carriers face intense profit pressures over the next few years, with Drewry last month saying it expects industry operating profit to fall to $20 billion this year, down from over $50 billion in 2024. But the pressure would be much greater without the absorption of capacity due to the Red Sea attacks and resultant diversions. Maersk in May ruled out a return to normal Suez routings this year despite US President Donald Trump on May 6 saying the Houthis “have capitulated” and agreed to stop attacks on commercial shipping in the region. But as the new attacks clearly showed, the Houthis were just lying low, meaning the status quo of limited container ship transits through the Suez remains as entrenched as ever. Contact Peter Tirschwell at <a href="mailto:peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com">peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

With no attacks on shipping off the Yemeni coast since December — that is, until two strikes over the past three days — a feeling was taking hold among some ocean carriers that the threat posed by Houthi militants was greatly diminished. And as the threat diminished it would become more difficult for carriers to justify the diversions around southern Africa, which for the past 18 months have absorbed an estimated 10% of global capacity, extending transit times and putting carriers in a stronger position to absorb an influx of new capacity. Now with two attacks in recent days, including one that killed three mariners, any thought that the risk was easing to the point the Suez route might be reopened in the near future has vanished. “The dynamic in the Red Sea has changed materially as compared to expectations roughly a month ago in which there had been a growing view that Red Sea transits would start to pick up following the US-Houthi agreement and the long period in which merchant ships had not been attacked,” Jefferies wrote on July 8. While the Houthi militia may have held fire for several months, the restraint should not be taken as a sign the group’s ability to strike is diminished. Although such a conclusion could be inferred from military setbacks experienced across the network of Iran-backed militia and states such as Syria, in reality, the Houthis remain a lethal force, as they showed this week, analysts say. “The most recent Houthi attacks … allow them to demonstrate that, unlike Iran and its other proxy groups in the region, they remain undeterred by the threat of US or Israeli military confrontation,” Jack Kennedy, head of Middle East and North Africa country risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence, told the Journal of Commerce Wednesday. Israel and the US have upped their strikes on rebels in Yemen in recent months. But without troops on the ground to uproot the rebels, Kennedy has been saying for more than a year that it would be extremely difficult to eliminate the group as a danger to shipping through aerial military action alone. “Houthi missile attack capabilities are highly decentralized across the territory they control,” Kennedy said. “These are unlikely to be fully replenished to levels in place prior to US-led and Israeli airstrikes, but seizures of weapons shipments in the Red Sea and the Houthis’ own industrial manufacturing capacity suggest that they will have been able to partially rebuild weapons stockpiles.” Kennedy added that the original spark for Houthi attacks on shipping — Israeli operations in Gaza — remains a core rationale for their strikes. “It is highly likely that attack attempts on vessels will continue while Israeli military operations in Gaza are ongoing,” he said. The result is an extended timeline, quite possibly into 2026, for any large-scale return to Suez routings. “With the developments over the past few days there is not much chance of a reversal back to a Suez routing for the major container lines in the short to medium term,” shipping analyst and Journal of Commerce contributor Lars Jensen wrote on LinkedIn this week. Added Kennedy: “We expect that Houthi attack activity will continue through 2025 at least.” Ongoing disruption post-COVID For ocean carriers who didn’t create the crisis and yet are largely immune from criticism for continuing the longer routings around Africa to protect their crews, ships and cargo, the crisis is part of a larger narrative of ongoing post-COVID-19 disruption, alongside basic supply and demand, underpinning market dynamics. Carriers face intense profit pressures over the next few years, with Drewry last month saying it expects industry operating profit to fall to $20 billion this year, down from over $50 billion in 2024. But the pressure would be much greater without the absorption of capacity due to the Red Sea attacks and resultant diversions. Maersk in May ruled out a return to normal Suez routings this year despite US President Donald Trump on May 6 saying the Houthis “have capitulated” and agreed to stop attacks on commercial shipping in the region. But as the new attacks clearly showed, the Houthis were just lying low, meaning the status quo of limited container ship transits through the Suez remains as entrenched as ever. Contact Peter Tirschwell at peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com .

Container Shipping News

Container lines

Maritime

New Houthi attacks likely kill hopes of shipping returning to Red Sea this year

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Mediterranean Shipping Co. is furthering its lead in vessel tonnage so far this year as it absorbs more than double the amount of new capacity added by No. 2 carrier Maersk. </div>

Mediterranean Shipping Co. is furthering its lead in vessel tonnage so far this year as it absorbs more than double the amount of new capacity added by No. 2 carrier Maersk.

<div class="phx-topic">Mediterranean Shipping Co. widened its already leading market share among ocean carriers as its fleet added the most ships in the first half of 2025, according to Alphaliner. Many of those new ships, though, are entering non-US trades as trans-Pacific demand appears to be ebbing for the remainder of the year. MSC’s fleet grew 5.5% in the first half, Alphaliner said in its weekly newsletter Wednesday. Only Ocean Network Express (ONE) saw a higher growth rate during that period at 5.9%, but MSC outstripped others for the most new capacity, adding some 365,173 TEUs to its fleet, Alphaliner said. The additional capacity, a combination of newbuild deliveries and acquisitions of second-hand ships, brings MSC’s total fleet to over 6.6 million TEUs, Alphaliner said. It added that MSC’s “relentless pursuit of capacity” has widened the gap with its former 2M partner Maersk, which added 170,371 TEUs during the first half of 2025 and brought its capacity to 4.5 million TEUs. “To put this into perspective, this gap [between MSC and Maersk] is equal to the entire fleet of ONE,” Alphaliner said, adding MSC is expected to take delivery of another 380,000 TEUs of newbuild capacity during the second half of 2025. Alphaliner said Maersk’s goal is not to enlarge its fleet as much as it aims to replace older vessels and make its network more efficient. It added that CMA CGM, which has the second-largest order book of new ships at 1.5 million TEUs, is “set to overtake Maersk in the coming years” in terms of fleet size. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="00f898cc-0bf5-4e4d-80d3-6db9454b1165"></dynamic-object></div><h3>Ships head to non-US markets </h3>During a speech last month to agriculture shippers, MSC’s US president, Fabio Santucci, said that while the fleet buildup may look excessive, it will head off even worse delays for shippers. Port congestion ties up about 10% of the global feet, he said, while the ongoing diversions around southern Africa absorb another 6%. MSC’s additional tonnage “is being fully absorbed and utilized and we are able to move cargo at 65% schedule reliability,” Santucci said. “Had we been more responsible financially, we would have had fewer ships, but the challenge is 50% schedule reliability.” While Santucci noted that MSC’s trans-Pacific reliability is hovering near 80%, much of the new tonnage is not currently serving US markets. Of 25 post-Panamax vessels delivered to MSC in the first half of 2025, only one — the 8,496-TEU MSC Benin — has called the US West Coast, according to satellite data from Sea-web, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Santucci said MSC is seeing the most cargo growth outside the US, with South America and Africa seeing respective growth of 10% and 12% during the first half of the year. Europe is also growing “well above average,” he said. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Mediterranean Shipping Co. widened its already leading market share among ocean carriers as its fleet added the most ships in the first half of 2025, according to Alphaliner. Many of those new ships, though, are entering non-US trades as trans-Pacific demand appears to be ebbing for the remainder of the year. MSC’s fleet grew 5.5% in the first half, Alphaliner said in its weekly newsletter Wednesday. Only Ocean Network Express (ONE) saw a higher growth rate during that period at 5.9%, but MSC outstripped others for the most new capacity, adding some 365,173 TEUs to its fleet, Alphaliner said. The additional capacity, a combination of newbuild deliveries and acquisitions of second-hand ships, brings MSC’s total fleet to over 6.6 million TEUs, Alphaliner said. It added that MSC’s “relentless pursuit of capacity” has widened the gap with its former 2M partner Maersk, which added 170,371 TEUs during the first half of 2025 and brought its capacity to 4.5 million TEUs. “To put this into perspective, this gap [between MSC and Maersk] is equal to the entire fleet of ONE,” Alphaliner said, adding MSC is expected to take delivery of another 380,000 TEUs of newbuild capacity during the second half of 2025. Alphaliner said Maersk’s goal is not to enlarge its fleet as much as it aims to replace older vessels and make its network more efficient. It added that CMA CGM, which has the second-largest order book of new ships at 1.5 million TEUs, is “set to overtake Maersk in the coming years” in terms of fleet size. Ships head to non-US markets During a speech last month to agriculture shippers, MSC’s US president, Fabio Santucci, said that while the fleet buildup may look excessive, it will head off even worse delays for shippers. Port congestion ties up about 10% of the global feet, he said, while the ongoing diversions around southern Africa absorb another 6%. MSC’s additional tonnage “is being fully absorbed and utilized and we are able to move cargo at 65% schedule reliability,” Santucci said. “Had we been more responsible financially, we would have had fewer ships, but the challenge is 50% schedule reliability.” While Santucci noted that MSC’s trans-Pacific reliability is hovering near 80%, much of the new tonnage is not currently serving US markets. Of 25 post-Panamax vessels delivered to MSC in the first half of 2025, only one — the 8,496-TEU MSC Benin — has called the US West Coast, according to satellite data from Sea-web, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Santucci said MSC is seeing the most cargo growth outside the US, with South America and Africa seeing respective growth of 10% and 12% during the first half of the year. Europe is also growing “well above average,” he said. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Asia-Europe

Trans-Pacific

MSC outstripping rivals on new capacity for 2025: Alphaliner

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">But the mini rush will be short-lived, with imports falling month to month between August and November, the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates said in their latest Global Port Tracker.</div>

But the mini rush will be short-lived, with imports falling month to month between August and November, the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates said in their latest Global Port Tracker.

<div class="phx-topic">US imports in July are expected to hit their highest level in at least the past 18 months and their peak for 2025, driven by the Aug. 1 extension granted by the Trump administration before the implementation of so-called reciprocal tariffs on a host of US trading partners, a major retail group said Wednesday. But the mini rush will be short-lived, with imports falling month to month between August and November, the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates said in their latest Global Port Tracker (GPT). “The tariff situation remains highly fluid and retailers are working hard to stock up for the holiday season before the various tariffs that have been announced and paused actually take effect,” Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said. “Retailers have brought in as much merchandise as possible ahead of the reciprocal tariffs taking effect...” The White House’s unexpected extension of a 90-day pause in new tariffs that were due to take effect July 9 caused the NRF and Hackett to upgrade their import projections for July through October compared with June’s GPT. And while Gold said the brief extension was “greatly appreciated” by retailers, he chided the Trump administration for the seeming whiplash nature of its tariff policy. “...Uncertainty over tariffs makes it increasingly difficult for retailers to plan, especially small businesses that have no capacity to absorb tariffs,” he said. “...It is vital for the administration to finalize negotiations with our trading partners and provide stability and certainty for US retailers.” <h3>Big bump in July forecast </h3>The GPT’s updated forecast calls for 2.36 million TEUs in US imports in July, up almost 11% from the June GPT and surpassing the 2.32 million TEUs brought in during July 2024. July is the only month in the second half of 2025 forecast to see year-over-year increases, so far. In August, retailers expect US imports to reach 2.08 million TEUs, up 5% from the forecast made in June but more than 10% under the 2.32 million TEUs imported in August 2024. September import projections were upgraded to 1.82 million TEUs — up 2.2% from the projection made last month but nearly 20% below year-ago levels. October’s import forecast increased by just half a percent to 1.81 million TEUs, 19.1% below volumes from October 2024. In its initial forecast for November, the GPT pegs imports at 1.7 million TEUs, down 16.2% year over year. Amid the forecasts for significant year-over-year import declines for the second half of 2025, Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett pointed to supply chain uncertainty exacerbated by shifting tariff policies. “The global supply chain functions best in a trade environment that is smooth and predictable,” he said. “Instead, it has been forced to contend with erratic policies and geopolitical volatility.” The latest GPT projects June’s import volumes will come in at 2.06 million TEUs, up about 2.5% from the forecast made last month. Meanwhile, May’s actual volume of 1.95 million TEUs was about 2% higher than projected in the prior GPT. As volumes in the trans-Pacific look to retract beyond July, carriers have responded with reductions to capacity, with plans to deploy 6.2% less tonnage from Asia to the US West Coast in August than in July, according to maritime intelligence provider eeSea. The GPT is published monthly using import data collected from 13 ports on the US East, West and Gulf coasts. Contact Laura Robb at <a href="mailto:Laura.Robb@spglobal.com">laura.robb@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

US imports in July are expected to hit their highest level in at least the past 18 months and their peak for 2025, driven by the Aug. 1 extension granted by the Trump administration before the implementation of so-called reciprocal tariffs on a host of US trading partners, a major retail group said Wednesday. But the mini rush will be short-lived, with imports falling month to month between August and November, the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates said in their latest Global Port Tracker (GPT). “The tariff situation remains highly fluid and retailers are working hard to stock up for the holiday season before the various tariffs that have been announced and paused actually take effect,” Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said. “Retailers have brought in as much merchandise as possible ahead of the reciprocal tariffs taking effect...” The White House’s unexpected extension of a 90-day pause in new tariffs that were due to take effect July 9 caused the NRF and Hackett to upgrade their import projections for July through October compared with June’s GPT. And while Gold said the brief extension was “greatly appreciated” by retailers, he chided the Trump administration for the seeming whiplash nature of its tariff policy. “...Uncertainty over tariffs makes it increasingly difficult for retailers to plan, especially small businesses that have no capacity to absorb tariffs,” he said. “...It is vital for the administration to finalize negotiations with our trading partners and provide stability and certainty for US retailers.” Big bump in July forecast The GPT’s updated forecast calls for 2.36 million TEUs in US imports in July, up almost 11% from the June GPT and surpassing the 2.32 million TEUs brought in during July 2024. July is the only month in the second half of 2025 forecast to see year-over-year increases, so far. In August, retailers expect US imports to reach 2.08 million TEUs, up 5% from the forecast made in June but more than 10% under the 2.32 million TEUs imported in August 2024. September import projections were upgraded to 1.82 million TEUs — up 2.2% from the projection made last month but nearly 20% below year-ago levels. October’s import forecast increased by just half a percent to 1.81 million TEUs, 19.1% below volumes from October 2024. In its initial forecast for November, the GPT pegs imports at 1.7 million TEUs, down 16.2% year over year. Amid the forecasts for significant year-over-year import declines for the second half of 2025, Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett pointed to supply chain uncertainty exacerbated by shifting tariff policies. “The global supply chain functions best in a trade environment that is smooth and predictable,” he said. “Instead, it has been forced to contend with erratic policies and geopolitical volatility.” The latest GPT projects June’s import volumes will come in at 2.06 million TEUs, up about 2.5% from the forecast made last month. Meanwhile, May’s actual volume of 1.95 million TEUs was about 2% higher than projected in the prior GPT. As volumes in the trans-Pacific look to retract beyond July, carriers have responded with reductions to capacity, with plans to deploy 6.2% less tonnage from Asia to the US West Coast in August than in July, according to maritime intelligence provider eeSea. The GPT is published monthly using import data collected from 13 ports on the US East, West and Gulf coasts. Contact Laura Robb at laura.robb@spglobal.com .

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US retailers upgrade import forecast after tariff deadline extended to Aug. 1

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The moves by CMA CGM were made to improve westbound transit times that remain a challenge due to ongoing vessel diversions around southern Africa. </div>

The moves by CMA CGM were made to improve westbound transit times that remain a challenge due to ongoing vessel diversions around southern Africa.

<div class="phx-topic">CMA CGM has implemented a series of adjustments to its premier “Indamex” service between India and the US East Coast (USEC) to better compete with its peers on the trade lane, including dropping a long-time call at Charleston. The move was made to improve westbound transit times that remain a challenge due to ongoing vessel diversions around southern Africa. The French carrier will also phase in three additional ships into the network to offer a weekly rotation as consistently as possible as sporadic void calls continue to vex schedule reliability. The service has blanked four Indian sailings through June and July. “The Indamex lineup is being reinforced by adding three vessels to the fleet,” CMA CGM said in a customer advisory. With the enhancements, the carrier estimates the Indamex roundtrip voyage duration will improve to 84 days from the current 90-plus days. The full revised rotation will be Pakistan’s Port Qasim, Nhava Sheva, Mundra, Colombo, New York, Norfolk, Savannah, and back to Port Qasim. But CMA CGM said the call at Port Qasim remains restricted to import discharge operations amid transit cargo restrictions for Pakistani containers at Indian ports, an issue tied to recent regional trade tensions. The reorganized routing also removes a temporary call to Khalifa Port in Abu Dhabi that the carrier introduced in May to handle Pakistani transshipments, which are now expected to be relayed entirely over Colombo in Sri Lanka. For Indian loads, the changes are due to begin with the Belita that has an estimated time of arrival of July 13 in Nhava Sheva Port, berthing data shows. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="56199e2b-5df4-468f-a149-b18ae7c32e51"></dynamic-object></div>The Indamex service has been a long-time market leader on the India-USEC route. It is now a standalone operation for CMA CGM following Hapag-Lloyd’s exit from the network in February as it shifted to the Gemini Cooperation alliance with Maersk. The Cosco Shipping and OOCL subsidiary co-load on the loop via weekly slot space arrangements with CMA CGM. The service changes also appear to be an attempt by CMA CGM to regain market share lost to competitors — Maersk, in particular, after it introduced an enhanced “MECL” loop on the trade lane in February. Still, Hapag-Lloyd’s TPI service leads India-North America volumes, accounting for about 25% of the market, according to anecdotal industry data. Meanwhile, most India-USEC carriers, including Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM, have jettisoned rate hike plans they were to implement beginning July 15, in another indication of their faltering price recovery efforts. Still, spot rates on the trade lane have shown some strength so far this month, with Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, pegging rates at $2,800 per FEU as of July 8, up 6% on the week. Contact Bency Mathew at <a href="mailto:bencyvmathew@gmail.com">bencyvmathew@gmail.com</a>.</div>

CMA CGM has implemented a series of adjustments to its premier “Indamex” service between India and the US East Coast (USEC) to better compete with its peers on the trade lane, including dropping a long-time call at Charleston. The move was made to improve westbound transit times that remain a challenge due to ongoing vessel diversions around southern Africa. The French carrier will also phase in three additional ships into the network to offer a weekly rotation as consistently as possible as sporadic void calls continue to vex schedule reliability. The service has blanked four Indian sailings through June and July. “The Indamex lineup is being reinforced by adding three vessels to the fleet,” CMA CGM said in a customer advisory. With the enhancements, the carrier estimates the Indamex roundtrip voyage duration will improve to 84 days from the current 90-plus days. The full revised rotation will be Pakistan’s Port Qasim, Nhava Sheva, Mundra, Colombo, New York, Norfolk, Savannah, and back to Port Qasim. But CMA CGM said the call at Port Qasim remains restricted to import discharge operations amid transit cargo restrictions for Pakistani containers at Indian ports, an issue tied to recent regional trade tensions. The reorganized routing also removes a temporary call to Khalifa Port in Abu Dhabi that the carrier introduced in May to handle Pakistani transshipments, which are now expected to be relayed entirely over Colombo in Sri Lanka. For Indian loads, the changes are due to begin with the Belita that has an estimated time of arrival of July 13 in Nhava Sheva Port, berthing data shows. The Indamex service has been a long-time market leader on the India-USEC route. It is now a standalone operation for CMA CGM following Hapag-Lloyd’s exit from the network in February as it shifted to the Gemini Cooperation alliance with Maersk. The Cosco Shipping and OOCL subsidiary co-load on the loop via weekly slot space arrangements with CMA CGM. The service changes also appear to be an attempt by CMA CGM to regain market share lost to competitors — Maersk, in particular, after it introduced an enhanced “MECL” loop on the trade lane in February. Still, Hapag-Lloyd’s TPI service leads India-North America volumes, accounting for about 25% of the market, according to anecdotal industry data. Meanwhile, most India-USEC carriers, including Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM, have jettisoned rate hike plans they were to implement beginning July 15, in another indication of their faltering price recovery efforts. Still, spot rates on the trade lane have shown some strength so far this month, with Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, pegging rates at $2,800 per FEU as of July 8, up 6% on the week. Contact Bency Mathew at bencyvmathew@gmail.com .

India-US ‘Indamex’ string drops Charleston, adds more ships to bolster reliability

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">In the latest course correction in the US’ busiest trade lane, carriers are set to deploy less tonnage in August as spot rates fall and retail import forecasts weaken. </div>

In the latest course correction in the US’ busiest trade lane, carriers are set to deploy less tonnage in August as spot rates fall and retail import forecasts weaken.

<div class="phx-topic">Container lines are pulling back on the deployment of tonnage from Asia to the US in August in the latest course correction linked to stop-and-start import demand amid tariff uncertainty. Container lines are set to deploy 6.2% less tonnage from Asia to the US West Coast in August than in July, equating to 90,000 TEUs of capacity, according to maritime intelligence provider eeSea. Comparatively, ocean capacity from Asia to US East and Gulf coasts will be trimmed by just 1.7%. Mediterranean Shipping Co. this week suspended its Pearl service to Long Beach, with the last sailing out of Xiamen on July 13, according to Kuehne + Nagel’s SeaExplorer tool. Container lines can also blank sailings — removing ships from services or skipping ports — to further calibrate capacity to weakening demand.<div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="0d272fa5-b752-4ec3-a342-964ef1a2b1f3"></dynamic-object></div>The rate of blanking compared with deployed capacity in May reached 26%, equating to 262,000 TEUs, as carriers adjusted networks, according to eeSea. In June, the rate was 9.5%. <h3>Tariff whiplash </h3>Carriers began pushing capacity back into the trade in May in anticipation of a surge of imports from China, driven by an early peak season caused in large part by the 90-day reprieve on higher US tariffs. Just a month earlier, US importers canceled China bookings after President Donald Trump on April 9 imposed 145% tariffs. In response, ocean carriers blanked sailings and suspended services, although Trump soon reversed course. Now carriers face an expanding capacity overhang amid downbeat retail import forecasts and the surge in US imports linked to the initial tariff reprieve in its last gasp. The tentative agreement with China to bring US tariffs to 55% hasn’t had much impact on importers’ peak season ordering, thanks to more than eight months of frontloading shipments and a narrow window for getting goods in before the year-end shopping season. While US retailers <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/pause-on-tariffs-prompts-us-retailers-to-upgrade-summer-import-forecast-6022230">upgraded their import forecast</a> slightly in early June, their volume expectations still lag the same period in 2024. US imports are expected to reach 2.13 million TEUs this month, down from 2.32 million TEUs a year ago, according to the Global Port Tracker. Retailers plan to bring in 14.7% less volume, equating to 331,000 TEUs of capacity, next month compared with August 2024. US laden imports from Asia have been falling since September, with the exception of a short-lived recovery in April, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. In September, inbound volumes hit 1.79 million TEUs, falling to 1.4 million TEUs by May. Container spot rates from Asia to the US, a barometer of how capacity is matching up to demand, have been falling for a month, according to various indexes. For example, container spot rates from Shanghai to the US West Coast last week were less than half the price a month ago, at $2,089 per FEU, according to the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index. Contact Mark Szakonyi at <a href="mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com ">mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Container lines are pulling back on the deployment of tonnage from Asia to the US in August in the latest course correction linked to stop-and-start import demand amid tariff uncertainty. Container lines are set to deploy 6.2% less tonnage from Asia to the US West Coast in August than in July, equating to 90,000 TEUs of capacity, according to maritime intelligence provider eeSea. Comparatively, ocean capacity from Asia to US East and Gulf coasts will be trimmed by just 1.7%. Mediterranean Shipping Co. this week suspended its Pearl service to Long Beach, with the last sailing out of Xiamen on July 13, according to Kuehne + Nagel’s SeaExplorer tool. Container lines can also blank sailings — removing ships from services or skipping ports — to further calibrate capacity to weakening demand. The rate of blanking compared with deployed capacity in May reached 26%, equating to 262,000 TEUs, as carriers adjusted networks, according to eeSea. In June, the rate was 9.5%. Tariff whiplash Carriers began pushing capacity back into the trade in May in anticipation of a surge of imports from China, driven by an early peak season caused in large part by the 90-day reprieve on higher US tariffs. Just a month earlier, US importers canceled China bookings after President Donald Trump on April 9 imposed 145% tariffs. In response, ocean carriers blanked sailings and suspended services, although Trump soon reversed course. Now carriers face an expanding capacity overhang amid downbeat retail import forecasts and the surge in US imports linked to the initial tariff reprieve in its last gasp. The tentative agreement with China to bring US tariffs to 55% hasn’t had much impact on importers’ peak season ordering, thanks to more than eight months of frontloading shipments and a narrow window for getting goods in before the year-end shopping season. While US retailers upgraded their import forecast slightly in early June, their volume expectations still lag the same period in 2024. US imports are expected to reach 2.13 million TEUs this month, down from 2.32 million TEUs a year ago, according to the Global Port Tracker. Retailers plan to bring in 14.7% less volume, equating to 331,000 TEUs of capacity, next month compared with August 2024. US laden imports from Asia have been falling since September, with the exception of a short-lived recovery in April, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. In September, inbound volumes hit 1.79 million TEUs, falling to 1.4 million TEUs by May. Container spot rates from Asia to the US, a barometer of how capacity is matching up to demand, have been falling for a month, according to various indexes. For example, container spot rates from Shanghai to the US West Coast last week were less than half the price a month ago, at $2,089 per FEU, according to the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index. Contact Mark Szakonyi at mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com .

Container lines cutting trans-Pacific capacity overhang

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The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

SMC3rates_shutterstock_5247046.jpg

Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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