<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">A slight year-over-year decline in imports from Asia in November from near-record volumes a year ago appears to be the result of thousands of containers idled on vessels sitting outside congested US ports. </div>

A slight year-over-year decline in imports from Asia in November from near-record volumes a year ago appears to be the result of thousands of containers idled on vessels sitting outside congested US ports.

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<div>US imports from Asia declined slightly in November year over year as thousands of containers sat idle on vessels outside of congested ports, a reality that is likely to play out at least through the first half of 2022 or until bottlenecks in overland transportation are eliminated. US containerized imports from Asia fell 3.2 percent from November 2020, but were up 25 percent from pre-pandemic November 2019, according to PIERS, a JOC.com sister product within IHS Markit. Imports have declined year over year for the past four months from record or near-record volumes in 2020. The decline in import volumes...

US imports from Asia declined slightly in November year over year as thousands of containers sat idle on vessels outside of congested ports, a reality that is likely to play out at least through the first half of 2022 or until bottlenecks in overland transportation are eliminated. US containerized imports from Asia fell 3.2 percent from November 2020, but were up 25 percent from pre-pandemic November 2019, according to PIERS, a JOC.com sister product within IHS Markit. Imports have declined year over year for the past four months from record or near-record volumes in 2020. The decline in import volumes that actually crossed the docks at major US gateways last month appears to be due to congested terminals and vessel bunching in Los Angeles-Long Beach , Oakland, Seattle-Tacoma, Houston, Savannah, and New York-New Jersey, which prevented the unloading of vessels that had already arrived at the ports. Click to enlarge The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach handle about 50 percent of US imports from Asia, according to PIERS. In November, the port complex handled 753,066 TEU of Asian imports, down from 826,284 TEU in November 2020. Last November was the third busiest month of 2020, according to PIERS. Vessels arriving in Southern California are remaining at anchor until berths open up, which typically takes about 20 days, according to the Los Angeles Port Optimizer . In November, the number of vessels at anchor awaiting berthing space was consistently above 60, according to the Marine Exchange of Southern California. If only 74,000 TEU from the idled vessels had crossed the docks, November’s import total would have equaled November 2020. No slowdown in consumer demand seen Similar bottlenecks, including congested marine terminals and warehouses, vessel bunching, and chassis shortages have been present, although to a lesser degree, at most of the other US gateways this fall. According to Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis, those same conditions will continue at least for the next six months, unless consumer demand for merchandise from Asia declines. “I am not seeing a slowdown in imports and consumer demand,” Murphy told the JOC virtual Port Performance North America webcast this week. Global Port Tracker, published monthly by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, forecasts that US imports will rise 4.6 percent in December, 9 percent in January, and 7.3 percent in February . Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, told a virtual press conference Wednesday that retailers are saying they will concentrate on rebuilding their depleted inventories in the second quarter of next year, which could create a mini-import boom during what is normally a slack period before back-to-school and holiday freight begins landing. That could delay the ability of the ports to clear their backlogs before the next big surge of imports in the second half of 2022. Year to date through November, Asian imports moving through West Coast ports have increased 5.3 percent, while climbing 4.1 percent at East Coast ports and 14.6 percent along the Gulf Coast. Although carriers have been increasing the capacity deployed to East and Gulf Coast ports in order to work around the more congested West Coast ports, the West Coast’s market share remained unchanged at 60.9 percent compared with the first 11 months of 2020, according to PIERS. The East Coast’s market share declined slightly to 32.9 percent, while the Gulf Coast’s share increased to 5.9 percent from 5.4 percent last year. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@ihsmarkit.com and follow him on Twitter: @billmongelluzzo .

Port News

Port congestion behind November dip in US imports from Asia

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd are seeking a general rate increase of $1,000 per FEU starting March 1 to reverse a steady spot rate decline that began in July 2025.</div>

CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd are seeking a general rate increase of $1,000 per FEU starting March 1 to reverse a steady spot rate decline that began in July 2025.

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<div class="phx-topic">Container lines are marshalling another rate hike on the Asia-to-Latin America trade amid rising volumes, but recent capacity injections into a market where spot rates have plummeted more than 80% over the past seven months offer a hard backstop to their efforts. CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd are seeking a general rate increase of $1,000 per FEU starting March 1 to reverse a steady spot rate decline that began in July 2025 when prices for Shanghai to Santos in Brazil were $6,374 per TEU, according to the Shanghai Shipping Exchange. Those rates are now at $1,131 per TEU, a decline of 82%. Container lines began adding more capacity to chase the higher rates; major carriers injected some 700,000 TEUs into the trade in the last 12 months, according to advisory firm MDS Transmodal. Capacity from Asia to the East Coast of South America is due to hit 303,517 TEUs in March, according to eeSea. That’s up almost 9% from February and would be the highest level in more than three years. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="3f037742-ccbd-42e6-a9c1-eef2aebad508"></dynamic-object></div>The capacity rush comes as CMA CGM announced its planned rate increase in an advisory Tuesday, following Hapag-Lloyd’s notice on Friday. Both carriers are again seeking a $1,000 per box across-the-board increase on all trades from Asia to Latin America, including the West and East coasts of South America, Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean. Hapag-Lloyd said the increase will apply to 20-foot, 40-foot and 40-foot non-operated reefers, while CMA CGM said its rate hike will also apply to out of gauge and paying empties. The two carriers announced similar $1,000 per-box rate increases at the end of last year. CMA CGM said in a Dec. 18 advisory the increase would apply from Jan. 1 while, Hapag-Lloyd published a notice on Nov. 21 saying the revised rate would take effect from Dec. 1. But Brazilian forwarders questioned whether the carriers would be any more successful with their latest planned hike than they were previously. “The fundamentals haven’t really changed since then. Yes, demand has been strong, but there is significant overcapacity,” a senior executive at a Sao Paolo-based freight forwarder told the Journal of Commerce. “Our partners in China tell us shipping lines have struggled to fill their vessels. “Rates might pick up after the Lunar New Year festival period as demand rebounds, but we’ve been told there’s more capacity coming into the market,” the source added. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="69a20079-176d-4590-97c9-677559ec748f"></dynamic-object></div>CMA CGM did not give a comparison, but Hapag-Lloyd’s rate notices showed it had attempted to push its December GRI in a falling market. In its latest GRI announcement, Hapag-Lloyd said ECSA base rates were now $1,000 per 20-foot container and $1,200 for a 40-foot box. By comparison, West Coast of South America base rates were down to $750 for both a 20-foot and 40-foot container, it said. Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, pegged rates from North Asia to the WCSA at $1,200 per FEU as of Feb. 2, down 60% year on year. A Hapag-Lloyd spokesperson did not comment specifically on the GRIs, cargo demand or capacity when contacted by the Journal of Commerce. “Not much I can say other than that we are continuously monitoring market developments, and rate adjustments on the back of changed supply and demand are a part of our day-to-day business,” the spokesperson said. Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com.</a></div>

Container lines are marshalling another rate hike on the Asia-to-Latin America trade amid rising volumes, but recent capacity injections into a market where spot rates have plummeted more than 80% over the past seven months offer a hard backstop to their efforts. CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd are seeking a general rate increase of $1,000 per FEU starting March 1 to reverse a steady spot rate decline that began in July 2025 when prices for Shanghai to Santos in Brazil were $6,374 per TEU, according to the Shanghai Shipping Exchange. Those rates are now at $1,131 per TEU, a decline of 82%. Container lines began adding more capacity to chase the higher rates; major carriers injected some 700,000 TEUs into the trade in the last 12 months, according to advisory firm MDS Transmodal. Capacity from Asia to the East Coast of South America is due to hit 303,517 TEUs in March, according to eeSea. That’s up almost 9% from February and would be the highest level in more than three years. The capacity rush comes as CMA CGM announced its planned rate increase in an advisory Tuesday, following Hapag-Lloyd’s notice on Friday. Both carriers are again seeking a $1,000 per box across-the-board increase on all trades from Asia to Latin America, including the West and East coasts of South America, Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean. Hapag-Lloyd said the increase will apply to 20-foot, 40-foot and 40-foot non-operated reefers, while CMA CGM said its rate hike will also apply to out of gauge and paying empties. The two carriers announced similar $1,000 per-box rate increases at the end of last year. CMA CGM said in a Dec. 18 advisory the increase would apply from Jan. 1 while, Hapag-Lloyd published a notice on Nov. 21 saying the revised rate would take effect from Dec. 1. But Brazilian forwarders questioned whether the carriers would be any more successful with their latest planned hike than they were previously. “The fundamentals haven’t really changed since then. Yes, demand has been strong, but there is significant overcapacity,” a senior executive at a Sao Paolo-based freight forwarder told the Journal of Commerce. “Our partners in China tell us shipping lines have struggled to fill their vessels. “Rates might pick up after the Lunar New Year festival period as demand rebounds, but we’ve been told there’s more capacity coming into the market,” the source added. CMA CGM did not give a comparison, but Hapag-Lloyd’s rate notices showed it had attempted to push its December GRI in a falling market. In its latest GRI announcement, Hapag-Lloyd said ECSA base rates were now $1,000 per 20-foot container and $1,200 for a 40-foot box. By comparison, West Coast of South America base rates were down to $750 for both a 20-foot and 40-foot container, it said. Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, pegged rates from North Asia to the WCSA at $1,200 per FEU as of Feb. 2, down 60% year on year. A Hapag-Lloyd spokesperson did not comment specifically on the GRIs, cargo demand or capacity when contacted by the Journal of Commerce. “Not much I can say other than that we are continuously monitoring market developments, and rate adjustments on the back of changed supply and demand are a part of our day-to-day business,” the spokesperson said. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com.

Container lines

Trans-Pacific

International ports

Container Shipping News

Maritime

Carriers try new rate hike on Asia-Latin America, but fresh capacity provides headwind

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Momentum from robust growth on some Asian export trade lanes following the Christmas holidays has now slowed, with forwarders and analysts expecting muted demand over the coming two weeks.</div>

Momentum from robust growth on some Asian export trade lanes following the Christmas holidays has now slowed, with forwarders and analysts expecting muted demand over the coming two weeks.

<div class="phx-topic">Air cargo analysts and forwarders are expecting a modest pre-Lunar New Year uptick in exports on Asian trade lanes following solid demand growth in January from China to Europe and from Southeast Asia and Taiwan to the US. With the Lunar New Year beginning relatively late on Feb. 17, industry forecasts are for a gradual increase in volume and rates over the next two weeks before factories close for Asia’s main annual holiday. Capacity trends on the Asia-Europe lane suggest “robust” volume growth in January from China’s inland air freight hubs of Chongqing, Chengdu and Zhengzhou, according to Rotate analyst Ray Zedov. While Asia to US capacity was down year over year from all Asia-Pacific regions, “a deeper dive into the US market shows that capacity from Vietnam continues to grow as Chinese imports to the US are impacted by the new tariff policy in the US,” Zedov told the Journal of Commerce. The US removed its “de minimis” duty exemption on low-value goods from all its trading partners on Aug. 29 last year following the scrapping of duty-free access for low-value Chinese imports in May. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="33a72818-4d4c-4365-97ce-ccb39dab8dd8"></dynamic-object></div>Sou Ping Chee, regional head of air freight in Asia-Pacific for Hellmann Worldwide Logistics, said volume out of Asia had weakened by early February even with the holidays just two weeks away, which suggests muted demand this year. “However, there is still a general expectation that demand will pick up next week ahead of Lunar New Year from China, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Taiwan across industries before these markets close for the biggest festive season in this part of the world,” he said. An Asia-based executive at a global forwarder said he was not seeing any major uptick in demand on China-Europe and the wider Asia Pacific-North America market. “It remains rather flat and even prior to the Lunar New Year we are not seeing anything exceptional,” the source said. He added that although overall demand out of Asia-Pacific to North America has flattened out, demand out of Taipei and Vietnam has remained solid. “Taipei-US, Bangkok-US and Hanoi-US are busy,” he said. “Rates are holding steady at a higher level and demand remains strong, largely driven by AI-related components. Bangkok-Europe and Vietnam-Europe are also busy.” <h3>Rates rising on Asian export trade lanes </h3>Netherlands-based air cargo analyst WorldACD said after two weeks of strong sequential volume growth from Asia-Pacific to US and Europe markets, overall week-over-week growth came to a halt last week with flat volumes for both trade lanes. When compared with the same week last year, volume to the US was down 1% and volume to Europe was up 7%. While spot rates on the trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe in the last week of January were down 9% year over year, there were significant week-over-week increases on both trades, particularly from China origins, WorldACD data shows. Spot rates to the US last week rose 6% compared with the previous week to $4.02 per kilogram, while rates to Europe were up 7% at $3.80/kg as the market edged into the pre-Lunar New Year peak and capacity tightened on some airport pairings. Sou noted that rates on the Asian export trade lanes have remained at healthy levels in the first weeks of 2026 after softening over the Christmas period. “As such we do not expect as sharp an increase now, but rather spot rates are likely to creep up as we enter the last 10 days to Lunar New Year and pick up momentum from next week onwards,” he said. Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), said the moderate demand will extend to the full year, with global air freight demand in 2026 expected to grow 2.4% from 2025, although that would be down from last year’s 3.4% growth over 2024. “We can expect that demand will continue to be shaped by trade and geopolitical developments,” Walsh noted in a January market update, adding that carriers will continue to relocate capacity to support shifting trade patterns. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>.   </div>

Air cargo analysts and forwarders are expecting a modest pre-Lunar New Year uptick in exports on Asian trade lanes following solid demand growth in January from China to Europe and from Southeast Asia and Taiwan to the US. With the Lunar New Year beginning relatively late on Feb. 17, industry forecasts are for a gradual increase in volume and rates over the next two weeks before factories close for Asia’s main annual holiday. Capacity trends on the Asia-Europe lane suggest “robust” volume growth in January from China’s inland air freight hubs of Chongqing, Chengdu and Zhengzhou, according to Rotate analyst Ray Zedov. While Asia to US capacity was down year over year from all Asia-Pacific regions, “a deeper dive into the US market shows that capacity from Vietnam continues to grow as Chinese imports to the US are impacted by the new tariff policy in the US,” Zedov told the Journal of Commerce. The US removed its “de minimis” duty exemption on low-value goods from all its trading partners on Aug. 29 last year following the scrapping of duty-free access for low-value Chinese imports in May. Sou Ping Chee, regional head of air freight in Asia-Pacific for Hellmann Worldwide Logistics, said volume out of Asia had weakened by early February even with the holidays just two weeks away, which suggests muted demand this year. “However, there is still a general expectation that demand will pick up next week ahead of Lunar New Year from China, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Taiwan across industries before these markets close for the biggest festive season in this part of the world,” he said. An Asia-based executive at a global forwarder said he was not seeing any major uptick in demand on China-Europe and the wider Asia Pacific-North America market. “It remains rather flat and even prior to the Lunar New Year we are not seeing anything exceptional,” the source said. He added that although overall demand out of Asia-Pacific to North America has flattened out, demand out of Taipei and Vietnam has remained solid. “Taipei-US, Bangkok-US and Hanoi-US are busy,” he said. “Rates are holding steady at a higher level and demand remains strong, largely driven by AI-related components. Bangkok-Europe and Vietnam-Europe are also busy.” Rates rising on Asian export trade lanes Netherlands-based air cargo analyst WorldACD said after two weeks of strong sequential volume growth from Asia-Pacific to US and Europe markets, overall week-over-week growth came to a halt last week with flat volumes for both trade lanes. When compared with the same week last year, volume to the US was down 1% and volume to Europe was up 7%. While spot rates on the trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe in the last week of January were down 9% year over year, there were significant week-over-week increases on both trades, particularly from China origins, WorldACD data shows. Spot rates to the US last week rose 6% compared with the previous week to $4.02 per kilogram, while rates to Europe were up 7% at $3.80/kg as the market edged into the pre-Lunar New Year peak and capacity tightened on some airport pairings. Sou noted that rates on the Asian export trade lanes have remained at healthy levels in the first weeks of 2026 after softening over the Christmas period. “As such we do not expect as sharp an increase now, but rather spot rates are likely to creep up as we enter the last 10 days to Lunar New Year and pick up momentum from next week onwards,” he said. Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), said the moderate demand will extend to the full year, with global air freight demand in 2026 expected to grow 2.4% from 2025, although that would be down from last year’s 3.4% growth over 2024. “We can expect that demand will continue to be shaped by trade and geopolitical developments,” Walsh noted in a January market update, adding that carriers will continue to relocate capacity to support shifting trade patterns. Contact Greg Knowler at  greg.knowler@spglobal.com .   

Air Cargo Forwarder News

Air Cargo

Solid January demand to largely mute Lunar New Year air freight rush

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The India/Middle East-Mediterranean service will be the first Gemini loop in two years to transit the Red Sea, with plans for other services to follow “where possible,” the alliance partners say.</div>

The India/Middle East-Mediterranean service will be the first Gemini loop in two years to transit the Red Sea, with plans for other services to follow “where possible,” the alliance partners say.

<div class="phx-topic">Gemini Cooperation partners Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd said Tuesday that the first vessels in their ME11/IMX service will be routed through the Suez Canal in mid-February, with plans by the carriers to send two other services through the waterway. The Journal of Commerce reported on Jan. 15 that the ME11/IMX service <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/gemini-india-med-service-the-next-to-plan-return-to-red-seasuez-passage-6152941">would resume the Suez route “shortly,”</a> citing a Maersk executive. It would be the first time in more than two years that a Gemini service has transited the Red Sea. “The service in scope is the ME11 service, which connects India and the Middle East with the Mediterranean,” Maersk said in a statement. “From mid-February, changes will be implemented on westbound sailings as of the vessel Albert Maersk and on eastbound sailings as of the vessel Astrid Maersk.” On the initial westbound sailing, the Albert Maersk will depart Mundra in India on Feb. 4 after arriving from Jebel Ali in the United Arab Emirates; on the eastbound sailing, the Astrid Maersk will depart Valencia in Spain on Feb. 3. A naval escort will ride shotgun during the Red Sea passages to guard against attacks by Yemen’s Houthi militants, the Gemini statement noted. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd also said that “where possible,” they will redirect Gemini’s AE12 Asia-Mediterranean and AE15 Asia-Turkey services through the Red Sea and Suez “at a later stage.” The carriers said further information for customers will follow, but no further changes to the Gemini network related to the Red Sea were foreseen at this stage. “We see this announcement as another important milestone for the industry,” J.P. Morgan said Tuesday in a note to customers. “It demonstrates the willingness of container shipping lines to improve flows and increase sailings via the Suez Canal.” But the investment bank said the market has yet to price in a sustained return to the Suez, which will add up to 7% of effective capacity to the global fleet. Earlier this year, Maersk made its first structural move back into the Red Sea by <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/maersk-set-to-resume-regular-suez-transits-on-india-usec-mecl-loop-sources-6152441">rerouting its standalone MECL service</a>, which links the Middle East and India with the US East Coast via the Suez Canal. <h3>Regional unease over volatile US-Iran relations </h3>The regional situation remains tense, with a US carrier strike group now stationed in the Gulf of Oman to back up threats by President Donald Trump to launch military strikes on Iran. Tehran has vowed to respond to any attacks, which may spill over into the southern Red Sea controlled by Iran-backed Houthi militants. Gemini said switching the services from around the Cape of Good Hope to Suez would be carried out in a way that keeps disruption for customers to a minimum. But in a nod to the volatile regional security situation, the Gemini statement added: “Contingency plans are in place should the security situation deteriorate, which may necessitate reverting individual sailings or the wider structural change of the ME11 service back to the Cape of Good Hope route.” Carriers have been forced to divert vessels around southern Africa since late 2023, when the Houthis began their attacks against commercial shipping to protest Israel’s move into Gaza. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd also warned shippers to review their bookings on the ME11 service and ensure they had sufficient insurance cover for their cargo being transported through the area. <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/shippers-shoulder-burden-of-red-sea-uncertainty-as-regional-tensions-rise-again-6160632">Cargo insurance is a significant hurdle for shippers</a> with freight transiting the Red Sea. Some shippers say their insurance brokers have refused to provide cover, while others say the high cost of premiums was prohibitive. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>.     </div>

Gemini Cooperation partners Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd said Tuesday that the first vessels in their ME11/IMX service will be routed through the Suez Canal in mid-February, with plans by the carriers to send two other services through the waterway. The Journal of Commerce reported on Jan. 15 that the ME11/IMX service would resume the Suez route “shortly,” citing a Maersk executive. It would be the first time in more than two years that a Gemini service has transited the Red Sea. “The service in scope is the ME11 service, which connects India and the Middle East with the Mediterranean,” Maersk said in a statement. “From mid-February, changes will be implemented on westbound sailings as of the vessel Albert Maersk and on eastbound sailings as of the vessel Astrid Maersk.” On the initial westbound sailing, the Albert Maersk will depart Mundra in India on Feb. 4 after arriving from Jebel Ali in the United Arab Emirates; on the eastbound sailing, the Astrid Maersk will depart Valencia in Spain on Feb. 3. A naval escort will ride shotgun during the Red Sea passages to guard against attacks by Yemen’s Houthi militants, the Gemini statement noted. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd also said that “where possible,” they will redirect Gemini’s AE12 Asia-Mediterranean and AE15 Asia-Turkey services through the Red Sea and Suez “at a later stage.” The carriers said further information for customers will follow, but no further changes to the Gemini network related to the Red Sea were foreseen at this stage. “We see this announcement as another important milestone for the industry,” J.P. Morgan said Tuesday in a note to customers. “It demonstrates the willingness of container shipping lines to improve flows and increase sailings via the Suez Canal.” But the investment bank said the market has yet to price in a sustained return to the Suez, which will add up to 7% of effective capacity to the global fleet. Earlier this year, Maersk made its first structural move back into the Red Sea by rerouting its standalone MECL service , which links the Middle East and India with the US East Coast via the Suez Canal. Regional unease over volatile US-Iran relations The regional situation remains tense, with a US carrier strike group now stationed in the Gulf of Oman to back up threats by President Donald Trump to launch military strikes on Iran. Tehran has vowed to respond to any attacks, which may spill over into the southern Red Sea controlled by Iran-backed Houthi militants. Gemini said switching the services from around the Cape of Good Hope to Suez would be carried out in a way that keeps disruption for customers to a minimum. But in a nod to the volatile regional security situation, the Gemini statement added: “Contingency plans are in place should the security situation deteriorate, which may necessitate reverting individual sailings or the wider structural change of the ME11 service back to the Cape of Good Hope route.” Carriers have been forced to divert vessels around southern Africa since late 2023, when the Houthis began their attacks against commercial shipping to protest Israel’s move into Gaza. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd also warned shippers to review their bookings on the ME11 service and ensure they had sufficient insurance cover for their cargo being transported through the area. Cargo insurance is a significant hurdle for shippers with freight transiting the Red Sea. Some shippers say their insurance brokers have refused to provide cover, while others say the high cost of premiums was prohibitive. Contact Greg Knowler at  greg.knowler@spglobal.com .    

Asia-Europe

Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd confirm they’ll route Gemini service through Suez

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The two markets hold high stakes, pegged at $2 billion in combined export value for both homegrown and global auto brands in India. </div>

The two markets hold high stakes, pegged at $2 billion in combined export value for both homegrown and global auto brands in India. 

<div class="phx-topic">Heavy tariff pounding by Mexico and South Africa on automobile imports is threatening India’s car-carrying business for roll-on/roll-off (ro/ro) supply chain stakeholders who had been eyeing stronger growth from the emerging markets amid trade diversification in Asia.  Mexico has more than doubled tariffs on finished passenger vehicles shipped in from countries without a free trade agreement (FTA), primarily targeting India and China, lifting the levy to 50% on Jan. 1 from the previous 20%. South Africa has signaled its intent to follow suit in a similar protectionist approach. The two markets hold high stakes, pegged at $2 billion in combined export value for both homegrown and global auto brands in India.  Ro/ro industry sources in India speaking with the Journal of Commerce have raised alarms regarding potential trade setbacks due to the volatile environment.  “The elevated tariffs have dealt a serious blow for the Indian auto industry as it’s on the cusp of a rapid expansionist curve,” said a Mumbai-based executive handling operations for a South Korean car carrier. “The booming growth journey of exports will be severely hampered.”  Even as original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) explore tactical operational adjustments to soften the impact, a measurable near-term slowdown in export volumes appears inevitable, sources said. That’s underscored by the fact that nearly half of all passenger cars sold in South Africa in the first half of 2025 were of Indian origin, according to a year-end report from market intelligence firm Lightstone.  MOL, NYK Line, “K” Line, Hoegh Autoliners, Hyundai Glovis, and EUKOR Car Carriers are the largest ro/ro capacity providers out of India, with Mundra (Adani Ports) and Pipavav (APM Terminals) being their primary ports of call. Pipavav saw April to December ro/ro volumes swell to 161,000 units, up from 116,000 units in the same period a year earlier, data from the port confirmed.  <h3>OEMs doubling down on Indian exports </h3>OEMs are, officially, holding firm on their growth bets for India and downplaying the potential risks posed by shifting tariff regimes.  “Mexico has consistently been one of our important export markets, given the rising demand there and the traction of our India-made models,” Skoda Auto Volkswagen India told the Journal of Commerce. “For the moment, we have come to the conclusion that our business activities are not affected.”  The German-based group ships about 45,000 units of different models annually to Mexico.  Officials with Indian car leader Maruti Suzuki said during a recent earnings briefing the company was monitoring the tariff situation and weighing steps to de-risk its export portfolio. The automaker declined to comment further.  India’s total automobile exports soared 24% year over year to 6.3 million units in 2025, with passenger vehicle outflows up 16% to 863,000 units by segment, industry data shows, refueling the bullish industry sentiment.  “The demand has been steady across most markets, including in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America,” the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) said.  Any downturn in Indian auto exports could also weigh on already demand-stressed container lines as shippers often move completely built units in containers for direct and faster connectivity, in addition to using boxes to ship auto parts. Contact Bency Mathew at <a href="mailto:bencyvmathew@gmail.com">bencyvmathew@gmail.com</a>.</div>

Heavy tariff pounding by Mexico and South Africa on automobile imports is threatening India’s car-carrying business for roll-on/roll-off (ro/ro) supply chain stakeholders who had been eyeing stronger growth from the emerging markets amid trade diversification in Asia.  Mexico has more than doubled tariffs on finished passenger vehicles shipped in from countries without a free trade agreement (FTA), primarily targeting India and China, lifting the levy to 50% on Jan. 1 from the previous 20%. South Africa has signaled its intent to follow suit in a similar protectionist approach. The two markets hold high stakes, pegged at $2 billion in combined export value for both homegrown and global auto brands in India.  Ro/ro industry sources in India speaking with the Journal of Commerce have raised alarms regarding potential trade setbacks due to the volatile environment.  “The elevated tariffs have dealt a serious blow for the Indian auto industry as it’s on the cusp of a rapid expansionist curve,” said a Mumbai-based executive handling operations for a South Korean car carrier. “The booming growth journey of exports will be severely hampered.”  Even as original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) explore tactical operational adjustments to soften the impact, a measurable near-term slowdown in export volumes appears inevitable, sources said. That’s underscored by the fact that nearly half of all passenger cars sold in South Africa in the first half of 2025 were of Indian origin, according to a year-end report from market intelligence firm Lightstone.  MOL, NYK Line, “K” Line, Hoegh Autoliners, Hyundai Glovis, and EUKOR Car Carriers are the largest ro/ro capacity providers out of India, with Mundra (Adani Ports) and Pipavav (APM Terminals) being their primary ports of call. Pipavav saw April to December ro/ro volumes swell to 161,000 units, up from 116,000 units in the same period a year earlier, data from the port confirmed.  OEMs doubling down on Indian exports OEMs are, officially, holding firm on their growth bets for India and downplaying the potential risks posed by shifting tariff regimes.  “Mexico has consistently been one of our important export markets, given the rising demand there and the traction of our India-made models,” Skoda Auto Volkswagen India told the Journal of Commerce. “For the moment, we have come to the conclusion that our business activities are not affected.”  The German-based group ships about 45,000 units of different models annually to Mexico.  Officials with Indian car leader Maruti Suzuki said during a recent earnings briefing the company was monitoring the tariff situation and weighing steps to de-risk its export portfolio. The automaker declined to comment further.  India’s total automobile exports soared 24% year over year to 6.3 million units in 2025, with passenger vehicle outflows up 16% to 863,000 units by segment, industry data shows, refueling the bullish industry sentiment.  “The demand has been steady across most markets, including in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America,” the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) said.  Any downturn in Indian auto exports could also weigh on already demand-stressed container lines as shippers often move completely built units in containers for direct and faster connectivity, in addition to using boxes to ship auto parts. Contact Bency Mathew at bencyvmathew@gmail.com .

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Auto tariff wars in Mexico, South Africa threaten to torpedo Indian ro/ro trade

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Both sides had been engaged in protracted negotiations to break the trade deadlock that had cut India’s imports to the US East Coast by more than 30% over the past six months.</div>

Both sides had been engaged in protracted negotiations to break the trade deadlock that had cut India’s imports to the US East Coast by more than 30% over the past six months.

<div class="phx-topic">The US and India on Monday said they reached a trade agreement after a months-long dispute, prompting Washington to cut tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from the 50% that went into effect last August. In a key concession, India said it would stop its purchases of Russian oil. “When two large economies and the world’s largest democracies work together, it benefits our people and unlocks immense opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation,” Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a statement. Both sides had been engaged in protracted negotiations to break the trade deadlock that had cut India’s imports to the US East Coast (USEC) by more than 30%. Further details, including the timeline for when the lower tariffs go into effect, were not immediately available. But the US said it would lower a “reciprocal” tariff on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, while also eliminating a separate 25% punitive tariff linked to India’s purchases of Russian oil. The lower tariffs make several Indian-made products, particularly textiles and apparel, more competitive than rival Asian sourcing markets, which augurs well for a potential trade boost between India and the US. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="ae1df54b-4003-46b5-a8c3-e0d35707e941"></dynamic-object></div>“This is big news for the India-US trade,” an executive at a European ocean carrier told the Journal of Commerce. “We are hoping to see a rebound in capacity demand.” Westbound volumes on the trade lane have been under tremendous pressure since the tariff uncertainty, forcing carriers to push ocean rates down to recent lows. Carriers have also been strategically adjusting capacity through blank calls to keep supply-demand dynamics as balanced as possible. Imports from India to the USEC have fallen 32% since the trade dispute broke out, from 93,160 TEUs in August to 63,590 TEUs in December, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="893ffa5c-0a69-45c7-a555-425e44318711"></dynamic-object></div>And spot rates from India to the USEC that were $2,640 per FEU on Aug. 1 have steadily fallen since to $1,212.50 as of Jan. 30, down 54%, according to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Major carriers have been unable to hold on to their intended rate hikes over the past few months with little demand support emerging. Contact Bency Mathew at <a href="mailto:bencyvmathew@gmail.com">bencyvmathew@gmail.com</a>.</div>

The US and India on Monday said they reached a trade agreement after a months-long dispute, prompting Washington to cut tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from the 50% that went into effect last August. In a key concession, India said it would stop its purchases of Russian oil. “When two large economies and the world’s largest democracies work together, it benefits our people and unlocks immense opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation,” Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a statement. Both sides had been engaged in protracted negotiations to break the trade deadlock that had cut India’s imports to the US East Coast (USEC) by more than 30%. Further details, including the timeline for when the lower tariffs go into effect, were not immediately available. But the US said it would lower a “reciprocal” tariff on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, while also eliminating a separate 25% punitive tariff linked to India’s purchases of Russian oil. The lower tariffs make several Indian-made products, particularly textiles and apparel, more competitive than rival Asian sourcing markets, which augurs well for a potential trade boost between India and the US. “This is big news for the India-US trade,” an executive at a European ocean carrier told the Journal of Commerce. “We are hoping to see a rebound in capacity demand.” Westbound volumes on the trade lane have been under tremendous pressure since the tariff uncertainty, forcing carriers to push ocean rates down to recent lows. Carriers have also been strategically adjusting capacity through blank calls to keep supply-demand dynamics as balanced as possible. Imports from India to the USEC have fallen 32% since the trade dispute broke out, from 93,160 TEUs in August to 63,590 TEUs in December, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. And spot rates from India to the USEC that were $2,640 per FEU on Aug. 1 have steadily fallen since to $1,212.50 as of Jan. 30, down 54%, according to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Major carriers have been unable to hold on to their intended rate hikes over the past few months with little demand support emerging. Contact Bency Mathew at bencyvmathew@gmail.com .

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US agrees to slash tariffs on imports from India after reaching trade deal

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