<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The country's government is looking to improve cargo fluidity at key seaports and border crossings — and reduce traffic on congested roads — via increased use of intermodal rail and a new marine highway program.</div>

The country's government is looking to improve cargo fluidity at key seaports and border crossings — and reduce traffic on congested roads — via increased use of intermodal rail and a new marine highway program.

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<div>This story appeared in the print edition of the Jan. 6, 2020, Journal of Commerce Annual Review and Outlook.A new rail link that will make Mexico’s Port of Veracruz the first in the nation served by two railroads and a new marine highway program for containerized cargo in 2020 will provide shippers with alternatives to the country’s tight trucking market. The two port-related initiatives are part of Mexico’s effort to improve cargo fluidity on land, which shippers say has been among the weak links in the country’s logistics system in recent years as cargo volumes have increased.Capacity in the trucking...

This story appeared in the print edition of the Jan. 6, 2020, Journal of Commerce Annual Review and Outlook. A new rail link that will make Mexico’s Port of Veracruz the first in the nation served by two railroads and a new marine highway program for containerized cargo in 2020 will provide shippers with alternatives to the country’s tight trucking market. The two port-related initiatives are part of Mexico’s effort to improve cargo fluidity on land, which shippers say has been among the weak links in the country’s logistics system in recent years as cargo volumes have increased. Capacity in the trucking sector, which carries about 80 percent of all cargo in Mexico, has tightened after the introduction of hours-of-service restrictions for truck drivers in August 2018. The restrictions exacerbated a capacity shortfall due to an existing driver shortage, and logistics executives say the tightness persisted through much of 2019. Security likely will continue to be a top concern in the coming year for both the trucking and rail sectors as well, given the relatively high incident rate of cargo theft in the country. And the challenge facing the railroad system will likely be how to restore shipper confidence in its reliability, after a series of disruptions triggered in 2019 by protests that were unrelated to railroad issues but nevertheless delayed cargo movement. The effects of those disruptions were especially noticeable at the Pacific Coast ports of Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas, which handle the majority of imports from Asia coming into the country. Dual lines On the Gulf Coast, the 12-mile rail link out of the Port of Veracruz built by the port authority that is expected to open in the first quarter of 2020 will add service from Kansas City Southern of Mexico (KCSM) to the port, which is at present served only by Ferrosur, a subsidiary of Ferromex, Mexico’s largest railroad. Ferrosur and KCSM will provide intermodal service to the $450 million container terminal opened by Hutchison Group in June, which is expected to make the movement of cargo by rail more attractive to shippers. The first cabotage service in Mexico’s new marine highway program, also set to be launched in the first quarter of 2020, will link Veracruz with the Port of Progreso to the south, said Rodolfo Ramirez Martinez, spokesperson for Héctor López Gutiérrez, the General Coordinator of Ports and Merchant Marine for the Secretariat of Communications and Transportation (SCT). By sending containers by sea, the cabotage program aims to reduce truck traffic, cut transportation costs and fuel use, and provide a more secure route. The program has the support of the National Association of Private Transport (ANTP), which represents shippers that operate their own trucking fleets, including some of Mexico’s largest beneficial cargo owners (BCOs). A second route, also on the Gulf Coast, will link the Port of Tampico on the northern Gulf Coast to Veracruz and connect the Port of Morelos to the south with the Port of Santo Tomás de Castilla in Guatemala. A third route, on the Pacific Coast, will link the Port of Lázaro Cárdenas to the Port of Chiapas, at the southern end of Mexico, as well as to the Port of Quetzal in Guatemala and the Port of Caldera in Costa Rica, Ramirez Martinez said. Stimulating growth The marine highway is a signature project of Lopez and the administration of president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who took office in December and is seeking to boost the country’s merchant navy and stimulate economic activity around the nation’s ports. Mexican authorities, for example, plan to build a new container terminal and auto handling facility at the small but fast-growing Port of Progreso. The government sees the project as support for an electronics, software, and electric car manufacturing cluster planned for the oft-neglected southern part of the country. APM Terminals Yucatán, which operates the existing container terminal at the port, says it will expand its operations there. The port projects are likely to unfold amid persistent weakness in the Mexican economy in 2020. According to IHS Markit, the parent company of The Journal of Commerce, the economy will grow at a 0.9 percent rate for the year, but the forecast is “clouded by high security (high levels of violence) and operational (corruption) risks, which undermine business sentiment and investment.” The weakness likely will contribute to container volume growth through Mexican ports in 2020 that significantly lags the highs of 2017 and 2018 — when loaded cargo increased by 11.9 percent and 8.7 percent, respectively — according to figures from the SCT, which oversees the Mexican port system. From January through September 2019, cargo volumes grew just 1 percent to 3.75 million loaded TEU compared with the same nine-month period in 2018, the SCT figures show. The country’s important auto trade also is expected to experience slow growth. Vehicle production in Mexico is expected to grow a modest 0.14 percent to 3.83 million units in 2020, according to IHS Markit. And that will also mean weak vehicle exports through the ports, as well as weak imports of auto parts, many of which come from Asia. IHS Markit estimates auto production fell 2.7 percent for the full year in 2019. Vehicle imports fell 4 percent in the first nine months of the year to 575,408 vehicles, while exports grew 1 percent to 932,713 vehicles, according to SCT figures. Despite the country’s slow economic activity, Mexico will continue port development in 2020. In Manzanillo, Mexico’s largest port by cargo volume, upgrades at the Contecon Manzanillo SA de CV terminal will expand storage yards and entry and exit gates and bring new technology and personnel training to the facility. The projects will help boost the terminal’s capacity from 1.2 million TEU to 1.6 million TEU. New railroad track that is expected to be completed in July will increase the on-terminal rail track from 1.3 miles to 1.8 miles, adding capacity and creating greater efficiency by providing flexibility in loading and unloading containers, according to the terminal. Contact Hugh R. Morley at hugh.morley@ihsmarkit.com and follow him on Twitter: @HughRMorley1 .

Trucking News

International rail

International ports

ARO 2020: Mexico aims to offer viable alternatives to tight trucking market

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Higher tariffs prompted importers to shift some manufacturing out of China last year, but other markets simply don’t have the expertise and capacity to wrest much more volume away from the still-dominant source for toys.</div>

Higher tariffs prompted importers to shift some manufacturing out of China last year, but other markets simply don’t have the expertise and capacity to wrest much more volume away from the still-dominant source for toys.

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<div class="phx-topic">(The following story appears in the Top 100 Importers and Exporters issue of the Journal of Commerce magazine to be published May 4, 2026.) US toymakers increased their sales last year on lower import volumes by absorbing higher tariff costs rather than passing them on to consumers, according to industry analysts and executives. Overall US retail toy sales grew 6% in 2025, led primarily by games, puzzles, building sets, and trading cards — like Pokémon or Magic the Gathering — according to the Toy Association, an advocacy and research group representing toy manufacturers and retailers. Containerized imports of those products, however, fell 7.7%, according to PIERS, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Greg Ahearn, president and CEO of the Toy Association, said sales were helped by a surge in spending in the early part of 2025 by adults buying toys for themselves, a boon to an industry that historically has relied heavily on holiday spending for children. “Our category is not recession-proof, but it is recession-resistant,” Ahearn said. “It’s the last thing that parents and caregivers will pull back on.” Ahearn estimates manufacturers absorbed roughly two-thirds of the higher tariffs imposed by the Trump administration to shield their customers from price hikes, while suppliers absorbed the other third. “Consumers maybe picked up 5% or so at the most,” he said. “Manufacturers looked very selectively at which products could support a price increase.” Instead, toymakers “redesigned” their supply chains to account for the rapid changes in tariff levels, Ahearn said. Potential refunds of tariffs paid under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) will bolster toymakers and retailers, even as they brace for existing Section 122 tariffs of 10% through July, and the possibility of new tariffs resulting from ongoing Section 301 investigations. “Tariffs on toys fluctuated incredibly over a short period of time given that development of toys takes two years on average. They went from 30% to 70% before settling at 30% for most of last year,” he said, adding that he doesn’t “believe tariffs will go beyond 30%, even with” Section 301 tariffs. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="98baa24c-d299-426d-81c8-ed24f551c65a"></dynamic-object></div>Gina Goetter, CFO and COO at Hasbro, pegged the company’s tariff costs at $70 million for 2025. However, “supply chain productivity nearly offset the cost of tariffs,” including manufacturing diversification efforts, she said during Hasbro’s Feb. 10 earnings call. The company is forecasting $150 million in cost savings from supply chain initiatives in 2026. “Tariff costs will be relatively flat year-over-year in the back half [of this year], with much of the incremental cost landing in the front half of the year,” Goetter said. In Mattel’s Feb. 10 earnings call, CEO Ynon Kreiz said the toymaker’s 6% revenue growth in 2025 underperformed expectations due to “uncertainty in US trade dynamics that affected retailer ordering patterns.” “After two challenging quarters where US retailers delayed orders, there was a significant acceleration in orders through most of the fourth quarter,” Kreiz said. “December, however, ended up growing less than anticipated in the US and our full-year results finished below expectations.” <h3>Still made in China </h3>The choice to keep prices relatively stable inevitably impacted toymakers’ margins, forcing some companies to lay off staff and others to shut down. “Our members are made up of 90% small businesses,” Ahearn said. “Some of those went out of business, whether small retailers or manufacturers. The largest companies were getting creative and driving units. They looked at the way they were manufacturing; they looked at partnerships with retailers and adjusted on the fly to be able to hold price inflation to reasonable levels.” Part of “getting creative” meant reducing their reliance on China as the dominant source of imports, but there is only so much capacity for toymaking in alternative markets. China’s share of the US containerized toy import market slipped to 75.8% in 2025 after holding steady between 83% and 84% since the COVID-19 pandemic. Vietnam was the primary beneficiary of diversification away from China, growing its share to 10.6% last year from 6.1% in 2024. However, Ahearn said it would take at least a decade, in the best-case scenario, before manufacturers in Vietnam could produce toys at the same quality and quantity as China. Other markets in Asia, as well as Mexico and the US, likewise lack the necessary expertise and scale to wrest significant volume away from China. “That’s a skill base that needs to be rediscovered in the US,” he said. Toymakers also learned not to overreact to individual developments during last year’s tariff rollercoaster. “As tariffs rates changed, those that tried to get ahead of the curve because they had facilities in India and Vietnam and Mexico, they moved their production forecasts to India, only to discover India’s tariff is 50% and China’s is now 30%,” Ahearn said of the Trump administration imposing higher tariffs on India in mid-2025. Looking ahead to the rest of 2026, Ahearn said toy importers will be selling into a “pretty uncertain geopolitical and macroeconomic market,” in which an extended war in the Middle East could further increase manufacturing and transportation costs for shippers while dampening consumer spending. “Petroleum and oil are in everything,” he said. “That being a volatile component has everyone worried, in terms of the cost of components and movement of goods. But having come through the last year...we don’t think the things that are driving growth are going to slow down, because they are built into people’s lives.” Contact Eric Johnson at <a href="mailto:eric.johnson@spglobal.com">eric.johnson@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

(The following story appears in the Top 100 Importers and Exporters issue of the Journal of Commerce magazine to be published May 4, 2026.) US toymakers increased their sales last year on lower import volumes by absorbing higher tariff costs rather than passing them on to consumers, according to industry analysts and executives. Overall US retail toy sales grew 6% in 2025, led primarily by games, puzzles, building sets, and trading cards — like Pokémon or Magic the Gathering — according to the Toy Association, an advocacy and research group representing toy manufacturers and retailers. Containerized imports of those products, however, fell 7.7%, according to PIERS, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Greg Ahearn, president and CEO of the Toy Association, said sales were helped by a surge in spending in the early part of 2025 by adults buying toys for themselves, a boon to an industry that historically has relied heavily on holiday spending for children. “Our category is not recession-proof, but it is recession-resistant,” Ahearn said. “It’s the last thing that parents and caregivers will pull back on.” Ahearn estimates manufacturers absorbed roughly two-thirds of the higher tariffs imposed by the Trump administration to shield their customers from price hikes, while suppliers absorbed the other third. “Consumers maybe picked up 5% or so at the most,” he said. “Manufacturers looked very selectively at which products could support a price increase.” Instead, toymakers “redesigned” their supply chains to account for the rapid changes in tariff levels, Ahearn said. Potential refunds of tariffs paid under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) will bolster toymakers and retailers, even as they brace for existing Section 122 tariffs of 10% through July, and the possibility of new tariffs resulting from ongoing Section 301 investigations. “Tariffs on toys fluctuated incredibly over a short period of time given that development of toys takes two years on average. They went from 30% to 70% before settling at 30% for most of last year,” he said, adding that he doesn’t “believe tariffs will go beyond 30%, even with” Section 301 tariffs. Gina Goetter, CFO and COO at Hasbro, pegged the company’s tariff costs at $70 million for 2025. However, “supply chain productivity nearly offset the cost of tariffs,” including manufacturing diversification efforts, she said during Hasbro’s Feb. 10 earnings call. The company is forecasting $150 million in cost savings from supply chain initiatives in 2026. “Tariff costs will be relatively flat year-over-year in the back half [of this year], with much of the incremental cost landing in the front half of the year,” Goetter said. In Mattel’s Feb. 10 earnings call, CEO Ynon Kreiz said the toymaker’s 6% revenue growth in 2025 underperformed expectations due to “uncertainty in US trade dynamics that affected retailer ordering patterns.” “After two challenging quarters where US retailers delayed orders, there was a significant acceleration in orders through most of the fourth quarter,” Kreiz said. “December, however, ended up growing less than anticipated in the US and our full-year results finished below expectations.” Still made in China The choice to keep prices relatively stable inevitably impacted toymakers’ margins, forcing some companies to lay off staff and others to shut down. “Our members are made up of 90% small businesses,” Ahearn said. “Some of those went out of business, whether small retailers or manufacturers. The largest companies were getting creative and driving units. They looked at the way they were manufacturing; they looked at partnerships with retailers and adjusted on the fly to be able to hold price inflation to reasonable levels.” Part of “getting creative” meant reducing their reliance on China as the dominant source of imports, but there is only so much capacity for toymaking in alternative markets. China’s share of the US containerized toy import market slipped to 75.8% in 2025 after holding steady between 83% and 84% since the COVID-19 pandemic. Vietnam was the primary beneficiary of diversification away from China, growing its share to 10.6% last year from 6.1% in 2024. However, Ahearn said it would take at least a decade, in the best-case scenario, before manufacturers in Vietnam could produce toys at the same quality and quantity as China. Other markets in Asia, as well as Mexico and the US, likewise lack the necessary expertise and scale to wrest significant volume away from China. “That’s a skill base that needs to be rediscovered in the US,” he said. Toymakers also learned not to overreact to individual developments during last year’s tariff rollercoaster. “As tariffs rates changed, those that tried to get ahead of the curve because they had facilities in India and Vietnam and Mexico, they moved their production forecasts to India, only to discover India’s tariff is 50% and China’s is now 30%,” Ahearn said of the Trump administration imposing higher tariffs on India in mid-2025. Looking ahead to the rest of 2026, Ahearn said toy importers will be selling into a “pretty uncertain geopolitical and macroeconomic market,” in which an extended war in the Middle East could further increase manufacturing and transportation costs for shippers while dampening consumer spending. “Petroleum and oil are in everything,” he said. “That being a volatile component has everyone worried, in terms of the cost of components and movement of goods. But having come through the last year...we don’t think the things that are driving growth are going to slow down, because they are built into people’s lives.” Contact Eric Johnson at eric.johnson@spglobal.com .

Maritime

Container Shipping News

Supply chain

US toymakers absorbing tariff costs, importing less to preserve sales

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The ocean carrier said switching up Asia and US East Coast rotations on three trans-Pacific services will provide more reliability and consistency. </div>

The ocean carrier said switching up Asia and US East Coast rotations on three trans-Pacific services will provide more reliability and consistency.

<div class="phx-topic">Mediterranean Shipping Co. is reworking its trans-Pacific network starting next month to offer more reliable, direct China services into US Northeast and Southeast ports, while providing coastwide direct service from Southeast Asia. MSC said in a Thursday customer advisory that it is changing some port calls on its three main East Coast services to “enhance service reliability and schedule stability.” The new networks consolidate some China calls and will change some calls to Florida ports. MSC’s Empire Service will drop a Qingdao call, with the service now only calling Shanghai, Ningbo and Busan on the front haul. Empire’s US rotation will drop the ports of Jacksonville and Miami in favor of calls to Norfolk and Port Everglades on the backhaul. The service’s new rotation will commence with the scheduled May 27 departure of the 6,178-TEU MSC Leo VI from Shanghai. The carrier said Empire would be “less exposed to port congestion risks” due to the rotation change. Qingdao will be added to MSC’s Amberjack service into the US Southeast. However, MSC will no longer provide direct service from Yantian and Xiamen but instead focus the service on northeast Asia ports. The service will also replace a call to Norfolk with a call to Jacksonville. MSC said the Amberjack changes would improve transit times and network stability. The new rotation goes into effect with the service’s estimated May 20 departure from Qingdao. MSC also said it would rework its Emerald service from Southeast Asia to drop a call to Taiwan’s Kaohsiung in favor of Xiamen, providing a direct service from that port into the largest US East Coast ports. The new rotation is expected to take effect with the May 18 departure from Singapore of the 7,000-TEU Zim Topaz. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Mediterranean Shipping Co. is reworking its trans-Pacific network starting next month to offer more reliable, direct China services into US Northeast and Southeast ports, while providing coastwide direct service from Southeast Asia. MSC said in a Thursday customer advisory that it is changing some port calls on its three main East Coast services to “enhance service reliability and schedule stability.” The new networks consolidate some China calls and will change some calls to Florida ports. MSC’s Empire Service will drop a Qingdao call, with the service now only calling Shanghai, Ningbo and Busan on the front haul. Empire’s US rotation will drop the ports of Jacksonville and Miami in favor of calls to Norfolk and Port Everglades on the backhaul. The service’s new rotation will commence with the scheduled May 27 departure of the 6,178-TEU MSC Leo VI from Shanghai. The carrier said Empire would be “less exposed to port congestion risks” due to the rotation change. Qingdao will be added to MSC’s Amberjack service into the US Southeast. However, MSC will no longer provide direct service from Yantian and Xiamen but instead focus the service on northeast Asia ports. The service will also replace a call to Norfolk with a call to Jacksonville. MSC said the Amberjack changes would improve transit times and network stability. The new rotation goes into effect with the service’s estimated May 20 departure from Qingdao. MSC also said it would rework its Emerald service from Southeast Asia to drop a call to Taiwan’s Kaohsiung in favor of Xiamen, providing a direct service from that port into the largest US East Coast ports. The new rotation is expected to take effect with the May 18 departure from Singapore of the 7,000-TEU Zim Topaz. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Container lines

Trans-Pacific

MSC revamps Asia-USEC network

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Port of Khor Fakkan “offers a relatively stable operating environment and will serve as the primary discharge hub operations,” Premier Alliance member Yang Ming said in an advisory.</div>

The Port of Khor Fakkan “offers a relatively stable operating environment and will serve as the primary discharge hub operations,” Premier Alliance member Yang Ming said in an advisory.

<div class="phx-topic">The Premier Alliance has tapped Khor Fakkan on the eastern side of the United Arab Emirates as its interim transshipment port for Middle East and Indian cargo on its Middle East-Asia-US West Coast GS2 service. The group, whose members comprise Yang Ming Marine Transport, Ocean Network Express and HMM, suspended calls at Arabian Gulf ports on the GS2 service in March following missile and drone attacks and Iran’s subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Khor Fakkan “offers a relatively stable operating environment and will serve as the primary discharge hub operations” for vessels originally scheduled to call Middle East ports, Yang Ming said in a Thursday customer advisory. “For cargo with final destinations within the Arabian Gulf region, onward transportation will be arranged via feeder vessels or alternative transshipment solutions to the respective final ports of discharge,” it added. The shift to Khor Fakkan comes as Iran’s foreign ministry Friday announced the Strait of Hormuz is now “completely open” to commercial shipping for the duration of the Iran-US ceasefire, although the situation remains murky. “We are currently verifying the recent announcement related to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, in terms of its compliance with freedom of navigation for all merchant vessels and secure passage using the IMO established traffic separation scheme,” International Maritime Organization secretary general Arsenio Dominguez said Friday on social media platform X. The Premier Alliance will begin calling at Khor Fakkan next week, with the first ship, the 16,000-TEU HMM Mir, due to berth Sunday and two other ships due to arrive by the end of the month, according to carrier vessel sailing schedules. The alliance has been holding cargo onboard ships for the past month while it decided what to do with Arabian Gulf cargo after attacks made ports such as Saudi Arabia’s Damman and Dubai’s Jebel Ali too risky to use. These ships are thought to include the 13,253-TEU HMM Peridot, which has been in the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea since the end of March and is now due to call at Khor Fakkan early next week, according to vessel sailing data Friday. The 13,000-TEU HMM Garnet will be the third ship to call Khor Fakkan, with a scheduled arrival around April 26. The Premier Alliance had also curtailed some sailings to Gulf ports, opting instead to route some eastbound services to the US West Coast from Singapore. Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>. </div>

The Premier Alliance has tapped Khor Fakkan on the eastern side of the United Arab Emirates as its interim transshipment port for Middle East and Indian cargo on its Middle East-Asia-US West Coast GS2 service. The group, whose members comprise Yang Ming Marine Transport, Ocean Network Express and HMM, suspended calls at Arabian Gulf ports on the GS2 service in March following missile and drone attacks and Iran’s subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Khor Fakkan “offers a relatively stable operating environment and will serve as the primary discharge hub operations” for vessels originally scheduled to call Middle East ports, Yang Ming said in a Thursday customer advisory. “For cargo with final destinations within the Arabian Gulf region, onward transportation will be arranged via feeder vessels or alternative transshipment solutions to the respective final ports of discharge,” it added. The shift to Khor Fakkan comes as Iran’s foreign ministry Friday announced the Strait of Hormuz is now “completely open” to commercial shipping for the duration of the Iran-US ceasefire, although the situation remains murky. “We are currently verifying the recent announcement related to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, in terms of its compliance with freedom of navigation for all merchant vessels and secure passage using the IMO established traffic separation scheme,” International Maritime Organization secretary general Arsenio Dominguez said Friday on social media platform X. The Premier Alliance will begin calling at Khor Fakkan next week, with the first ship, the 16,000-TEU HMM Mir, due to berth Sunday and two other ships due to arrive by the end of the month, according to carrier vessel sailing schedules. The alliance has been holding cargo onboard ships for the past month while it decided what to do with Arabian Gulf cargo after attacks made ports such as Saudi Arabia’s Damman and Dubai’s Jebel Ali too risky to use. These ships are thought to include the 13,253-TEU HMM Peridot, which has been in the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea since the end of March and is now due to call at Khor Fakkan early next week, according to vessel sailing data Friday. The 13,000-TEU HMM Garnet will be the third ship to call Khor Fakkan, with a scheduled arrival around April 26. The Premier Alliance had also curtailed some sailings to Gulf ports, opting instead to route some eastbound services to the US West Coast from Singapore. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

Port News

Premier Alliance taps UAE’s Khor Fakkan for war-diverted cargoes

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Domestic intermodal boosters have been waiting for three years for the competitive environment to improve, and perhaps that time has arrived, writes intermodal analyst Larry Gross. </div>

Domestic intermodal boosters have been waiting for three years for the competitive environment to improve, and perhaps that time has arrived, writes intermodal analyst Larry Gross.

<div class="phx-topic">The numbers are in for intermodal performance for the first quarter, and the reading is surprisingly strong, even though the headline numbers don’t look all that wonderful. According to the Association of American Railroads, total North American activity in the first quarter rose 1.8% versus the prior year. Growth for the US “Big Four” (BNSF, CSX, NS and UP) was even lower at just 1.2%. But keep in mind what this is compared with. In 2025, first-quarter activity was juiced by volume pulled forward in time to beat the tariffs. Remember, Trump’s “Liberation Day” was April 2 of last year, just a couple of days after the conclusion of the first quarter. Intermodal’s ability to not only keep pace with, but even modestly improve on last year’s performance is somewhat impressive. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6205607_0.1.jpg"></img></div>Nonetheless, we can’t count on growth in international intermodal to once again save the day in 2026. Import TEUs trailed prior year throughout the first quarter, with my preliminary estimated decline from 2025 coming in at a bit less than 4%. We can expect major gyrations in the year-over-year comps over the next few months, not because of current variations, but rather because of the start-stop effects of the tariffs on last year’s volumes from month to month. Setting aside the year-over-year comparison, the sequential trend in import TEUs is looking quite favorable. After a weak performance in October of last year, seasonally adjusted import TEUs have moved significantly, with March showing the best numbers yet. For the time being, the SA numbers will be the most revealing in terms of current performance, rather than the comparison with last year’s erratic situation. Further, one of the anticipated headwinds for international intermodal in 2026 has, at least for the moment, evaporated. Earlier, it appeared likely that the Red Sea/Suez routing from Asia to the US East Coast would be fully re-opening in 2026. Now, the Iran War has made that unlikely in the near term. We should see the effects in the form of a boost in US West Coast import share in the coming months. This will help intermodal, as intermodal share off the West Coast is higher than out east. <h3>Headline-grabbing growth </h3>In my view, however, it will be domestic intermodal that will generate headlines in the coming months. Intermodal boosters have been waiting for three years for the competitive environment to improve, and perhaps that time has arrived. Truck rates are on the way up, thanks to actions by the Trump administration on several fronts. First and foremost are fuel prices. The price of diesel has skyrocketed with the Middle East war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and there seems to be little prospect for relief in the near term. This has transformed fuel prices from a net drag on intermodal conversion to a powerful booster. The second tailwind is the administration’s crackdown on immigrant truck drivers. Action is occurring on four fronts: English proficiency, non-domicile commercial driver’s licenses, working visa restrictions and immigrant documentation. The result is a diminution in truck capacity. While I don’t expect the decline to be sharp enough to cause a shortage, the effects on trucking rates are plainly visible. There are potential offsets. The most significant would be a dramatic slowdown in the US economy. But that doesn’t seem to be in the cards just yet. The economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of multiple headwinds, including the tariff gyrations. However, there are danger signs. Inflation is picking up, and there are signs that growth is slowing. The impact of the higher oil prices is only now starting to work their way through the system. A slowdown in the economy would of course result in reduced demand for truckload/intermodal services, counteracting the forces for growth. Intermodal share would likely still improve, but the overall pie could shrink. Another potential issue would be volume-related service stumbles by the railroads. History certainly tells us to be on guard against such problems, but recent STB service data shows no current cause for alarm. Service remains strong. In sum, current conditions provide a good opportunity for intermodal to end an extended period of market share stagnation. Much depends on how the intermodal industry opts to take advantage. If intermodal rates ride up in close concert with truck rates, then profitability will improve but volume gains will be modest. But if price increases are constrained, higher volumes and share should be the result. Larry Gross is president and founder of Gross Transportation Consulting. Contact him at <a href="mailto:lawrencejgross@gmail.com">lawrencejgross@gmail.com</a>. </div>

The numbers are in for intermodal performance for the first quarter, and the reading is surprisingly strong, even though the headline numbers don’t look all that wonderful. According to the Association of American Railroads, total North American activity in the first quarter rose 1.8% versus the prior year. Growth for the US “Big Four” (BNSF, CSX, NS and UP) was even lower at just 1.2%. But keep in mind what this is compared with. In 2025, first-quarter activity was juiced by volume pulled forward in time to beat the tariffs. Remember, Trump’s “Liberation Day” was April 2 of last year, just a couple of days after the conclusion of the first quarter. Intermodal’s ability to not only keep pace with, but even modestly improve on last year’s performance is somewhat impressive. Nonetheless, we can’t count on growth in international intermodal to once again save the day in 2026. Import TEUs trailed prior year throughout the first quarter, with my preliminary estimated decline from 2025 coming in at a bit less than 4%. We can expect major gyrations in the year-over-year comps over the next few months, not because of current variations, but rather because of the start-stop effects of the tariffs on last year’s volumes from month to month. Setting aside the year-over-year comparison, the sequential trend in import TEUs is looking quite favorable. After a weak performance in October of last year, seasonally adjusted import TEUs have moved significantly, with March showing the best numbers yet. For the time being, the SA numbers will be the most revealing in terms of current performance, rather than the comparison with last year’s erratic situation. Further, one of the anticipated headwinds for international intermodal in 2026 has, at least for the moment, evaporated. Earlier, it appeared likely that the Red Sea/Suez routing from Asia to the US East Coast would be fully re-opening in 2026. Now, the Iran War has made that unlikely in the near term. We should see the effects in the form of a boost in US West Coast import share in the coming months. This will help intermodal, as intermodal share off the West Coast is higher than out east. Headline-grabbing growth In my view, however, it will be domestic intermodal that will generate headlines in the coming months. Intermodal boosters have been waiting for three years for the competitive environment to improve, and perhaps that time has arrived. Truck rates are on the way up, thanks to actions by the Trump administration on several fronts. First and foremost are fuel prices. The price of diesel has skyrocketed with the Middle East war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and there seems to be little prospect for relief in the near term. This has transformed fuel prices from a net drag on intermodal conversion to a powerful booster. The second tailwind is the administration’s crackdown on immigrant truck drivers. Action is occurring on four fronts: English proficiency, non-domicile commercial driver’s licenses, working visa restrictions and immigrant documentation. The result is a diminution in truck capacity. While I don’t expect the decline to be sharp enough to cause a shortage, the effects on trucking rates are plainly visible. There are potential offsets. The most significant would be a dramatic slowdown in the US economy. But that doesn’t seem to be in the cards just yet. The economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of multiple headwinds, including the tariff gyrations. However, there are danger signs. Inflation is picking up, and there are signs that growth is slowing. The impact of the higher oil prices is only now starting to work their way through the system. A slowdown in the economy would of course result in reduced demand for truckload/intermodal services, counteracting the forces for growth. Intermodal share would likely still improve, but the overall pie could shrink. Another potential issue would be volume-related service stumbles by the railroads. History certainly tells us to be on guard against such problems, but recent STB service data shows no current cause for alarm. Service remains strong. In sum, current conditions provide a good opportunity for intermodal to end an extended period of market share stagnation. Much depends on how the intermodal industry opts to take advantage. If intermodal rates ride up in close concert with truck rates, then profitability will improve but volume gains will be modest. But if price increases are constrained, higher volumes and share should be the result. Larry Gross is president and founder of Gross Transportation Consulting. Contact him at lawrencejgross@gmail.com .

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North-American rail

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Surface

Tailwinds for US intermodal volume growth strengthening: analyst

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The alcoholic beverage industry is going through changes that are roiling demand forecasts, with a growing number of people drinking less than they were during the pandemic and different tastes apparent among young drinkers.</div>

The alcoholic beverage industry is going through changes that are roiling demand forecasts, with a growing number of people drinking less than they were during the pandemic and different tastes apparent among young drinkers.

<div class="phx-topic">(The following story appears in the Top 100 Importers and Exporters issue of the Journal of Commerce magazine to be published May 4, 2026.) US alcoholic beverage importers are still trying to find their right supply-and-demand balance after another volatile year for wines and spirits shipments. Import numbers are also being roiled by changing tastes among US drinkers that are favoring new shipping methods and trade lanes. Containerized imports of wine, beer and distilled spirits fell 4.9% in 2025 and another 16.1% in the first quarter of 2026, according to data from PIERS, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Last year’s drop continues the uneven trajectory that alcoholic beverage imports have had since US inbound shipments hit a peak of 468,465 TEUs in 2022. After that, imports dropped 18% in 2023, followed by a 13.5% rebound in 2024. Allison Leavitt, managing director of the Wine and Spirits Shippers Association, said last year’s import numbers were affected by frontloading ahead of the Trump administration’s various tariff moves and the subsequent gap in later shipments. “There was a push at the beginning of 2025 to get products in prior to the tariffs, and this did create lower volumes in subsequent months, with some importers putting a stop to imports when tariffs were first announced,” Leavitt said. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="84b1392e-a3ba-4353-8535-68285ce036da"></dynamic-object></div>But alcoholic beverage shippers are also still figuring out the right level of inventory to hold. The popularity of drinking at home during the pandemic led the industry to estimate stronger growth than what materialized afterward, she said. The alcoholic beverage industry itself is going through changes that are also roiling demand forecasts. A growing number of people are drinking less than they were during the pandemic. Changing tastes among young drinkers who prefer pre-packaged, ready-to-drink cocktails or malt beverages are another headwind for imports of individually bottled wines and spirits. “It’s definitely a confluence of post-COVID hangover from when people were indulging more in alcohol,” Leavitt said. “There’s a huge amount of inventory we are still working through. “There’s a little bit of a kickback in consumption from wellness trends,” she added. “There’s the rise of the ready-to-drink category. Those have impacted both wine and spirits imports.” <h3>Shift in shipping methods </h3>Imports from France, the second-largest source of US wine and spirits imports behind Italy, have fallen 23.7% since 2022. Along with lower demand, Leavitt said some of the volume decline also stems from different shipping methods. Instead of shipping individual bottles, US wine shippers are increasingly using tanks and totes to import thousands of liters of bulk wine that can be bottled domestically. Leavitt expects this trend to continue as major retailers such as Costco and Aldi offer more private-label wines at lower price points than estate-bottled wines. At the same time, shippers of estate-bottled wine are taking smaller consignments to reduce their risk of holding too much inventory at a time of changing tastes, resulting in more demand for less-than-containerload and consolidated shipments. “We see a lot of movement in bulk shipping, and more and more wine and spirits are moving in bulk,” Leavitt said. “It’s wine clubs bringing it in and the largest chains are definitely looking into more private labels.” <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="5c36d5d7-b71b-42c7-b321-01ecf1899819"></dynamic-object></div>The distilled spirits market faces a similar dynamic. Along with offering low-cost, private label brands, US spirits shippers are contending with the rising popularity of the prepackaged, ready-to-drink cocktail. Those products, along with malt-based seltzers, are steering drinkers away from individual bottles and further driving bulk alcohol shipments. Even though wine and spirits shippers do not lack for space on ships, Leavitt said network and schedule changes by ocean carriers can still impact the industry. Faced with weaker trade volumes, the Ocean Alliance and Ocean Network Express combined two jointly-operated, trans-Atlantic services into one at the start of 2026, which also reduced the number of ships in the services from 11 to seven. Mediterranean Shipping Co. also restructured its US East Coast network by dropping the trans-Atlantic leg of an around-the-world service. That effectively reduced some capacity and service frequency between Northern Europe and US East Coast ports at a time when the wine and spirits industry is moving to more just-in-time shipments, Leavitt said. Schedule reliability and consistency is also a factor on services shipping between Oceania and the US, which are serving Australian and New Zealand wine shipments. While a few direct Oceania services are available, many importers still rely on transshipping, and are dealing with resulting delays in reaching the US. Despite last year’s import decline, Leavitt said the industry might be finding a floor in demand. Import bookings for the early part of 2026 appear healthy. The US and Europe have a trade truce that should avoid further tariff-driven volatility. And newer types of products, whether private label or ready-to-drink, continue to gain traction with drinkers. “We see a lot of news about declining consumption and the phrase ‘neo-prohibitionist’ has come up as the trend toward no- and low-alcohol has picked up speed,” Leavitt said. “However, alcoholic beverages continue be consumed, and the volumes are not that different year on year for imports.”   Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

(The following story appears in the Top 100 Importers and Exporters issue of the Journal of Commerce magazine to be published May 4, 2026.) US alcoholic beverage importers are still trying to find their right supply-and-demand balance after another volatile year for wines and spirits shipments. Import numbers are also being roiled by changing tastes among US drinkers that are favoring new shipping methods and trade lanes. Containerized imports of wine, beer and distilled spirits fell 4.9% in 2025 and another 16.1% in the first quarter of 2026, according to data from PIERS, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Last year’s drop continues the uneven trajectory that alcoholic beverage imports have had since US inbound shipments hit a peak of 468,465 TEUs in 2022. After that, imports dropped 18% in 2023, followed by a 13.5% rebound in 2024. Allison Leavitt, managing director of the Wine and Spirits Shippers Association, said last year’s import numbers were affected by frontloading ahead of the Trump administration’s various tariff moves and the subsequent gap in later shipments. “There was a push at the beginning of 2025 to get products in prior to the tariffs, and this did create lower volumes in subsequent months, with some importers putting a stop to imports when tariffs were first announced,” Leavitt said. But alcoholic beverage shippers are also still figuring out the right level of inventory to hold. The popularity of drinking at home during the pandemic led the industry to estimate stronger growth than what materialized afterward, she said. The alcoholic beverage industry itself is going through changes that are also roiling demand forecasts. A growing number of people are drinking less than they were during the pandemic. Changing tastes among young drinkers who prefer pre-packaged, ready-to-drink cocktails or malt beverages are another headwind for imports of individually bottled wines and spirits. “It’s definitely a confluence of post-COVID hangover from when people were indulging more in alcohol,” Leavitt said. “There’s a huge amount of inventory we are still working through. “There’s a little bit of a kickback in consumption from wellness trends,” she added. “There’s the rise of the ready-to-drink category. Those have impacted both wine and spirits imports.” Shift in shipping methods Imports from France, the second-largest source of US wine and spirits imports behind Italy, have fallen 23.7% since 2022. Along with lower demand, Leavitt said some of the volume decline also stems from different shipping methods. Instead of shipping individual bottles, US wine shippers are increasingly using tanks and totes to import thousands of liters of bulk wine that can be bottled domestically. Leavitt expects this trend to continue as major retailers such as Costco and Aldi offer more private-label wines at lower price points than estate-bottled wines. At the same time, shippers of estate-bottled wine are taking smaller consignments to reduce their risk of holding too much inventory at a time of changing tastes, resulting in more demand for less-than-containerload and consolidated shipments. “We see a lot of movement in bulk shipping, and more and more wine and spirits are moving in bulk,” Leavitt said. “It’s wine clubs bringing it in and the largest chains are definitely looking into more private labels.” The distilled spirits market faces a similar dynamic. Along with offering low-cost, private label brands, US spirits shippers are contending with the rising popularity of the prepackaged, ready-to-drink cocktail. Those products, along with malt-based seltzers, are steering drinkers away from individual bottles and further driving bulk alcohol shipments. Even though wine and spirits shippers do not lack for space on ships, Leavitt said network and schedule changes by ocean carriers can still impact the industry. Faced with weaker trade volumes, the Ocean Alliance and Ocean Network Express combined two jointly-operated, trans-Atlantic services into one at the start of 2026, which also reduced the number of ships in the services from 11 to seven. Mediterranean Shipping Co. also restructured its US East Coast network by dropping the trans-Atlantic leg of an around-the-world service. That effectively reduced some capacity and service frequency between Northern Europe and US East Coast ports at a time when the wine and spirits industry is moving to more just-in-time shipments, Leavitt said. Schedule reliability and consistency is also a factor on services shipping between Oceania and the US, which are serving Australian and New Zealand wine shipments. While a few direct Oceania services are available, many importers still rely on transshipping, and are dealing with resulting delays in reaching the US. Despite last year’s import decline, Leavitt said the industry might be finding a floor in demand. Import bookings for the early part of 2026 appear healthy. The US and Europe have a trade truce that should avoid further tariff-driven volatility. And newer types of products, whether private label or ready-to-drink, continue to gain traction with drinkers. “We see a lot of news about declining consumption and the phrase ‘neo-prohibitionist’ has come up as the trend toward no- and low-alcohol has picked up speed,” Leavitt said. “However, alcoholic beverages continue be consumed, and the volumes are not that different year on year for imports.”   Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

US alcohol importers managing shifting consumption habits

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