Trans-Pacific

Importers in the US are rewiring their supply chains and drawing extra inventory from Canada, Mexico and domestically in a “wait and see” response to the trans-Pacific trade war, according to Vincent Clerc.

The world’s largest shipping company said Wednesday the service suspensions and network changes were “in response to the recent changes in demand for cargo transport from Asia to the US.”

US imports rebounded to a record high in 2024 amid widespread frontloading, while exports expanded slightly for the second straight year.

The freeing up of vessel capacity that has been diverted around southern Africa for the past 18 months could inject as much as 2 million TEUs of functional capacity into the global container shipping market.

The forwarder offered an unsettled outlook for the trans-Pacific in 2025 as shippers navigate the Trump administration’s 145% tariffs on goods made in China.

While the Jones Act carrier added another service from Vietnam in the first quarter, it says volumes from that country won’t replace what’s lost from China.

Interest in FTZs, where shippers can store goods while deferring the payment of duties, has increased dramatically since President Donald Trump implemented tariffs in April.

A swing from renewables to fossil fuels in the US and new opportunities for wind cargoes internationally could overhaul traditional MPV trade lanes over time.

Paper and forest product exports climbed for the first time in more than five years in 2024, but various headwinds will challenge demand in 2025.

While ongoing port congestion in North Europe and longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope will help to absorb incoming vessels, it will also leave the trade lane open to volatile shifts in capacity that cannot be planned for, a Journal of Commerce webinar was told.

While the second quarter is typically strong for freight demand, the logistics provider said the market is far from normal after the Trump administration’s tariffs spooked its customers.

The carrier and competitor Hapag-Lloyd announced strong financial results Wednesday, but both said the success of early 2025 won’t be replicated through the balance of the year given market headwinds linked to the global trade conflict.

US ports and support infrastructure such as warehouses and rail connections aren’t better equipped to handle import surges than they were during the pandemic when record volumes drove congestion to historic highs, carrier executives said this week.

Container lines saw a first-quarter demand boost from US shippers eager to bring in cargo before the April implementation of the Trump administration’s tariffs.

With far fewer US-bound goods leaving Chinese docks, carriers have accelerated the raft of blank sailings and service suspensions that began earlier this month, sources tell the Journal of Commerce.

The latest deals will increase the total number of methanol-enabled ships Wan Hai has on order to 32, worth a total of almost $5 billion.

Carriers and importers are dealing with confusion over how tariffs in general, and the trade war between Washington and Beijing specifically, will affect commerce on the US’ busiest trade lane over the next 12 months.

The analyst downgraded its container handling outlook following similar moves on global and US economic growth by the IMF and WTO this week.

The carrier said its Gemini Cooperation alliance with Maersk is not resorting to blanked voyages to deal with the downturn, but it did redeploy ships to deal with demand changes.

Shippers and ocean carriers told the Journal of Commerce they are reviewing the USTR actions to estimate how the fees will flow down to freight costs.

The increase in blank sailings coincides with the Port of Los Angeles’ expectation that container volumes will plunge 14% month over month in week 18 and 38.6% in week 19.

Apparel importers are concerned that tariffs on China will do harm given more than 4 out of every 10 shipments of the product come from China.

In addition to various ongoing supply chain disruptions that US agricultural shippers face, they must now contend with the highly volatile tariff environment that is forcing them to seek new markets for their products.

The US Trade Representative (USTR) laid out actions to counter China’s maritime dominance that could put Cosco Shipping and subsidiary OOCL on the hook for millions when their ships call the US.

The export decline is already showing up in some data, with bookings for US exports to China for the week of April 8–15 down 5.4% from the prior week.

But the largest US intermodal provider said customers have not yet meaningfully adjusted their freight forecasts, and shippers continue to tender the quantity of loads outlined in their contracts.

Some ships are leaving China just half-full as the Trump administration’s rush of tariffs sends shippers into contortions about what to do with their freight.

First-quarter carrier earnings are likely to be buoyed by high rates and strong demand that has spilled over from 2024, but tariffs, slowing volume and excess capacity are darkening the outlook for the rest of the year.

A full evaluation of on-time performance will not be possible until July once the transition to the new deep-sea services has been completed, but data for February and March is positive for the Maersk/Hapag-Lloyd alliance.

And the chilling effect of the tariffs is extending further down the calendar, with forwarders in the trans-Pacific saying US retailers are holding off making purchase orders with factories in Asia for fall and holiday merchandise for 30 to 60 days.

The latest Global Port Tracker demonstrates the uncertainty that has overtaken global supply chains since the White House’s announcement on tariffs a week ago.

The parent company of Cosco Shipping and OOCL expects a 72% increase in first-quarter net profits, but the rapidly escalating trade war between the US and China is clouding its outlook for the rest of the year.

The carrier will enter long-term charters for 10 ships of 11,500-TEU capacity that will be deployed across various global trades and be capable of running on both regular bunkers and LNG.

Eighteen Republican members of Congress said the remedies laid out as part of the US’ investigation into China’s maritime dominance are unworkable for farmers, notably a port tax on Chinese vessels and the requirement that an increasing volume of US exports be shipped on US-flagged vessels.

A general rate increase implemented by carriers in the eastbound trans-Pacific on April 1 has largely stuck, giving shippers less leverage in attempting to lower contract rates for 2025–26 service year.

A total of 68 sailings globally are expected to be canceled during April, according to maritime consultancy Drewry, with about half of the cancellations in trans-Pacific services.

Forwarders say they are seeing utilization only near 50% on the Asia-Mexico lane amid seasonally low demand and tariff uncertainties.

In creating the threat of a clearly significant penalty, the US Trade Representative essentially forced observers to not merely give a thumbs up or down to the proposal, but to offer alternative solutions.

Shippers, carriers and forwarders say uncertainty around consumer demand, tariffs and geopolitical disruptions has produced a wider range of service contract rates this year.

The top 10 carriers for imports collectively hauled 2.43 million TEUs into the Gulf Coast last year and had a market share of almost 94%, according to the latest Journal of Commerce rankings.