Trans-Pacific

Importers can get a fairly good sense of how to proceed over the next few months based on developments to date, but things will get fuzzy when the separate cooldown periods for tariffs on China and the rest of the world expire this summer, writes Lars Jensen.

The Port of Los Angeles took the top spot for containerized imports in 2024 and edged out Houston and Savannah as the busiest gateway for exports.

The Zim Central China Xpress will restart next week, little more than a month after Zim announced its suspension as part of the carrier’s broader 30% to 35% trim in its trans-Pacific network.

Forwarders expect congestion and container shortages to worsen in the next few weeks as carriers redeploy vessels to trans-Pacific services from Asia-Europe trades to meet increased demand from shippers.

MSC plans to provide all of the tonnage in a US Gulf service, with Zim slated to get a lower share of slot space as weaker demand forces service changes.

With less than half of CMA CGM’s fleet built in China, CFO Ramon Fernandez believes US services can be structured to avoid the incoming tonnage fees.

Caterpillar and Deere are counting the sizable costs of tariff-related expenses, even with the announced 90-day tariff pause between the US and China.

Container lines are looking to capitalize on a ramp-up in Asia-US bookings during the 90-day tariff reduction that followed Monday’s deal between the Trump administration and China.

Industry backlash mitigated the costliest components of the US Trade Representative’s proposed fees, but surcharges from some carriers are still likely on the way, writes Executive Editor Mark Szakonyi.

Rates are climbing quickly amid fresh Chinese volumes headed to the US, with an expected crunch in vessel capacity and the potential for port congestion driving the gains. 

The predicted rush to get US imports from China on the water has begun as shippers take advantage of the 90-day cut in tariffs, according to CEO Rolf Habben Jansen.

The carrier was commenting after reporting its first-quarter results along with Taiwan’s other two mainline carriers, Evergreen Marine and Wan Hai Lines.

The National Retail Federation also warned the negative growth will accelerate, with imports through the summer expected to be at least 20% lower than the corresponding month last year. 

Importers in the US are rewiring their supply chains and drawing extra inventory from Canada, Mexico and domestically in a “wait and see” response to the trans-Pacific trade war, according to Vincent Clerc.

The world’s largest shipping company said Wednesday the service suspensions and network changes were “in response to the recent changes in demand for cargo transport from Asia to the US.”

US imports rebounded to a record high in 2024 amid widespread frontloading, while exports expanded slightly for the second straight year.

The freeing up of vessel capacity that has been diverted around southern Africa for the past 18 months could inject as much as 2 million TEUs of functional capacity into the global container shipping market.

The forwarder offered an unsettled outlook for the trans-Pacific in 2025 as shippers navigate the Trump administration’s 145% tariffs on goods made in China.

While the Jones Act carrier added another service from Vietnam in the first quarter, it says volumes from that country won’t replace what’s lost from China.

Interest in FTZs, where shippers can store goods while deferring the payment of duties, has increased dramatically since President Donald Trump implemented tariffs in April.

A swing from renewables to fossil fuels in the US and new opportunities for wind cargoes internationally could overhaul traditional MPV trade lanes over time.

Paper and forest product exports climbed for the first time in more than five years in 2024, but various headwinds will challenge demand in 2025.

While ongoing port congestion in North Europe and longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope will help to absorb incoming vessels, it will also leave the trade lane open to volatile shifts in capacity that cannot be planned for, a Journal of Commerce webinar was told.

While the second quarter is typically strong for freight demand, the logistics provider said the market is far from normal after the Trump administration’s tariffs spooked its customers.

The carrier and competitor Hapag-Lloyd announced strong financial results Wednesday, but both said the success of early 2025 won’t be replicated through the balance of the year given market headwinds linked to the global trade conflict.

US ports and support infrastructure such as warehouses and rail connections aren’t better equipped to handle import surges than they were during the pandemic when record volumes drove congestion to historic highs, carrier executives said this week.

Container lines saw a first-quarter demand boost from US shippers eager to bring in cargo before the April implementation of the Trump administration’s tariffs.

With far fewer US-bound goods leaving Chinese docks, carriers have accelerated the raft of blank sailings and service suspensions that began earlier this month, sources tell the Journal of Commerce.

The latest deals will increase the total number of methanol-enabled ships Wan Hai has on order to 32, worth a total of almost $5 billion.

Carriers and importers are dealing with confusion over how tariffs in general, and the trade war between Washington and Beijing specifically, will affect commerce on the US’ busiest trade lane over the next 12 months.

The analyst downgraded its container handling outlook following similar moves on global and US economic growth by the IMF and WTO this week.

The carrier said its Gemini Cooperation alliance with Maersk is not resorting to blanked voyages to deal with the downturn, but it did redeploy ships to deal with demand changes.

Shippers and ocean carriers told the Journal of Commerce they are reviewing the USTR actions to estimate how the fees will flow down to freight costs.

The increase in blank sailings coincides with the Port of Los Angeles’ expectation that container volumes will plunge 14% month over month in week 18 and 38.6% in week 19.

Apparel importers are concerned that tariffs on China will do harm given more than 4 out of every 10 shipments of the product come from China.

In addition to various ongoing supply chain disruptions that US agricultural shippers face, they must now contend with the highly volatile tariff environment that is forcing them to seek new markets for their products.

The US Trade Representative (USTR) laid out actions to counter China’s maritime dominance that could put Cosco Shipping and subsidiary OOCL on the hook for millions when their ships call the US.

The export decline is already showing up in some data, with bookings for US exports to China for the week of April 8–15 down 5.4% from the prior week.

But the largest US intermodal provider said customers have not yet meaningfully adjusted their freight forecasts, and shippers continue to tender the quantity of loads outlined in their contracts.

Some ships are leaving China just half-full as the Trump administration’s rush of tariffs sends shippers into contortions about what to do with their freight.