Trans-Pacific

China-based Cosco’s latest earnings came as Beijing and Washington announced a one-year pause in their reciprocal port fees as part of a broader trade framework that included a reduction in US tariffs on Chinese imports.

But there was no indication when the pause would take effect or what would happen to the port fees already paid by ship operators in the two weeks since the US and China imposed the reciprocal levies on Oct. 14.

But the state will pass, for now, on any proposals being pushed by port stakeholders to raise the height of the Vincent Thomas Bridge, a move that would allow bigger vessels to call at three of the port’s terminals.

Some market observers believe the frontloading story of 2025 was overplayed and that destocking is actually the major theme this year, which will result in a more robust 2026.

US soybean exporters say the Trump administration’s financial bailout of Argentina is “facilitating” that country’s growing threat as a competitor to US growers.

The early estimates coincide with prior forecasts of how much of the new port fees would fall on the two carriers, with their combined fee burden potentially reaching $2 billion in a year’s time should no changes be made to the fee structure.

Markets such as high tech and perishables are showing strong growth and, combined with shifting trade patterns in Asia, will help offset the lack of a traditional air peak season this quarter, forwarders say.

Average spot rates from West India to the US East Coast have dropped by $400 to $500 per container over the last three weeks, according to new data from freight forwarders.

Amid tariffs of up to 130%, US laden imports from China for the six months between April and September fell to levels not seen since 2013.

But freighter operators were prepared for the frontloading, and no capacity shortages are being reported on China-US routes, according to Tiaca.

Tariffs have increased sixfold since January, but those cost increases have yet to fully reveal themselves in consumer prices.

Some carriers and forward are predicting a strong recovery in volumes in the first quarter of next year despite US retailers’ downward expectations.

The investment in less carbon-intensive vessels is part of a $17 billion spending plan that also includes $3 billion on its logistics business and the acquisition of new container terminals by 2030.

The trade dispute has become multi-dimensional with many different elements all impacting shipping and the supply chain, writes maritime and Journal of Commerce analyst Lars Jensen.

But forwarders say the effort by liners to end a four-month decline in rates may lose steam after a week or so given generally weak market fundamentals.

China’s new port fees on non-China-made vessels that are US-flagged or owned or controlled by US companies are forcing the Gemini Cooperation partners to transship via South Korea to avoid the multimillion-dollar hit.

But the move comes as China’s Transport Ministry launched an investigation into how the country’s maritime industry and supply chains will be impacted by the US Trade Representative’s Section 301 port charges and tariffs.

At first blush, the fees targeting US entities would affect Matson, Maersk Line and APL, part of the CMA CGM group.

The carrier’s operational update did not provide profit and loss figures, but the declining revenue is an indication of tough times ahead as liners sail into their financial reporting season.

But if current rate competition doesn’t possess the edge it did in prior years, the question is why and whether that matters if the overall effect is to substantially lower rates for shippers in a down market, writes Peter Tirschwell.

The onus of calculating new US port fees that kick in next week falls on ocean carriers.

In its request for proposals to develop Pier 500, the port will specify that it seeks to contract with a member company of the Pacific Maritime Association that pledges to follow the guidelines for terminal operations on the US West Coast.

The vagueness of China’s potential retaliation against the US puts not just US-flag vessels under threat, but also any individuals and organizations accused of harming Beijing’s shipping interests.

A string of storms in September has roiled vessel schedules and terminal operations throughout the region.

A regulation change that went into effect over the weekend allows Beijing to penalize and block vessels from countries that it accuses of targeting its own shipping activities.

Evergreen’s plan to focus on adding more tonnage between Asia and Latin America over the next five years comes as US import volume growth cools.

The jump in blank sailings comes as spot rates to the West Coast have fallen 30% over the past three weeks, with East Coast prices down almost 20%.

After initially holding back on blank sailings, carriers have announced additional capacity withdrawals to match the slowing demand ahead of Oct. 1, when Chinese factories close for eight days for the National Day holiday.

Forwarders said capacity utilization for USEC sailings out of West India has fallen to between 60% and 70% from the 80% to 90% level normally seen for the premier networks.

While the new fees “may pose certain operational challenges,” Cosco said it does not plan to remove any trans-Pacific services, reduce its ship deployments to the US, or impose new surcharges to cover the fees.

The waterway has the capacity to handle 36 daily transits, but ACP Administrator Ricaurte Vásquez Morales told a media briefing the average is projected to land at only 33 next year.

Outside of Cosco and OOCL, the new port fees will likely be a non-event for ocean carriers that have spent the summer rerouting Chinese ships away from the US.

The bump in spot rates that was driven by the Sept. 1 GRI and blanked sailings in the eastbound trans-Pacific appears to be over, with rates this week headed lower, according to forwarders.

Delivery of the fuel will begin immediately and build on a strategic collaboration Hapag-Lloyd established with Shell in 2023 to accelerate the decarbonization of its fleet.

The suspension of the TP9/WC6 service from Xiamen and Busan is the latest effort by carriers to stem declining container spot rates and adjusting capacity to softening demand.

The carrier said that network adjustments that began in April will allow it to eliminate the impact of new US port fees for ships built in China on its shipper customers while maintaining US port coverage.

US retailers increased September and October import volume expectations significantly, but it will not be enough to meet 2024 levels.

The investment bank said non-Chinese carriers will largely avoid looming and escalating port fees, but Cosco and OOCL will be on the hook unless they adjust networks.

Suspension of the Pacific South 5 service comes as container lines are announcing more blanked sailings from Asia to the US in an attempt to boost spot rates ahead of China’s Golden Week.

The dismal outlook for the second half of the year is prompting Wall Street analysts to rein in earnings expectations as many carriers also report steep declines in their profit margins amid a mix of overcapacity and “tariff-driven cost escalation.”