The dearth of Asia volumes will give way to surges hitting North American and European ports that may be short-lived as recessionary conditions dampen demand.

Terminal operators in Los Angeles-Long Beach are canceling work shifts due to plunging cargo volumes, which is causing a backlog of empty containers in Southern California and could trigger chassis shortages if the condition is not resolved soon.

Carriers are not having much success in balancing capacity with falling demand as the coronavirus impact cuts China’s export volume.

Logistics experts say a return to full production in China is unlikely before the end of February, while the post-Lunar New Year lull in the trans-Pacific could extend into March because of delayed factory re-openings due to the coronavirus.

Data shows that backhaul shippers are being partially subsidized by headhaul shippers; for the Pacific backhaul, that figure is roughly $1.6 billion annually.

A Chinese government mandate extending the Lunar New Year holidays due to the deadly coronavirus means carriers and US ports will experience slack-season volumes well into March.

The US-China trade war pulled down OOCL’s performance in the trans-Pacific, but volume and revenue growth in other trades kept its overall operational result in positive territory.

Recent quotes by carriers on their surcharges for more expensive low-sulfur fuel oil are confusing shippers and causing suspicion carriers are attempting to make unreasonable profits from the global LSFO mandate that took effect Wednesday.

The second straight weekly decline in spot rates in the eastbound Pacific seems to show that the peak shipping season was uneventful -- and that the 25 percent tariffs on $300 billion of imports from China due to go into effect Dec. 15 is having no significant impact on freight volumes.

Even before Wednesday’s announcement canceling the Nov. 15 Apec meeting in Chile, footwear importers were warned their industry would continue to encounter a drumbeat of uncertainty and possibly higher duty rates.

A slight increase in eastbound trans-Pacific spot rates reflects final shipments that left China before Golden Week, but dozens of blank sailings already announced for October-November indicate carriers expect imports to be weak going forward.

The tariff war between the US and China has cooled significantly with news the two powers have reached a “very substantial” first phase of a trade deal.

The US Customs and Border Protection is investigating three companies for possibly evading antidumping and countervailing duties on hardwood plywood imports.

After seeing four weeks of declining spot rates in September-- when rates should be increasing -- and with factory closures coming next week during Golden Week celebrations in China, NVOs who sell in the spot market say further rate declines are possible.

This week’s double-digit surge in spot rates is more tariff-driven than anything else because there is little cargo rolling in Asia to generate a bidding war among BCOs for vessel space leaving Asia.

Spot rates in the westbound Pacific took a sizable drop this month due to declining US exports to Asia, which are resulting in especially low vessel utilization rates. The normal strong rebound, which should begin in November, could be muted as a result.

Imports from China were down 2 percent in July and 4.4 percent below the same period seven-month period in 2018.