Spot rates in the eastbound Pacific increased for the second straight week.

Eastbound trans-Pacific spot rates fell for the fourth straight week.

There are still more unknowns than knowns about the US-China tariff ‘truce,’ but this is clear: the extra time until March 1 helps shippers by giving them a longer time cushion before higher tariffs could potentially start.

The US imports surge from Asia since mid-summer is due largely to savvy capacity management by carriers individually and through vessel-sharing alliances. However, retailers’ front-loading of imports to stay ahead of tariffs on mainland China led to an earlier-than-expected peak-shipping season this summer and now to fast-forwarding of spring merchandise.

“There is no will or reason to merge the two companies. SM Line will continue to build its own business models and we will do our part to survive in the market independently,” said SM Line CEO Kim during a meeting at the company’s headquarters in Seoul.

Some are predicting a continuation of peak season-like conditions not just through the end of the year but continuing until the Chinese New Year holiday beginning in early February. Beyond that, two sector variables will determine the extent of anticipated first-quarter weakness in spot rates.

Shippers were still paying high spot rates, and scheduled deployment of extra-loader vessels indicates carriers believe imports will remain strong into November.

It has now been 12 consecutive weeks that spot rates on imports from Asia have been higher than $2,000 to the West Coast and $3,000 to the East Coast, according to the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index. This is the longest sustained period of elevated spot rates since 2013.

As uncertain as trans-Pacific rates have been, they are up 56 percent to the West Coast and 67 percent to the East Coast, compared with early Oct. 2017. However, more price volatility is anticipated as the peak season ends, importers prepare for the Chinese New Year, and proposed 25 percent Trump administration tariffs take effect on Jan. 1.

Further, trans-Pacific shippers will welcome the additional capacity, especially this peak season, for several reasons.

Already chaotic and upended, the Trump administration’s proposed Jan. 1, 2019, 25 percent tariff on imports from China is causing importers to scramble for ocean, truck, and rail capacity — with the next ramification being the warehouse variable: will there be any space after the front-loading of imports?

Extra-loaders have made their presence felt, but is that extra capacity capable of ending the escalation in trans-Pacific spot rates long term?

The move represents modest good news for US importers scrambling for slots, amid a peak season surge in volume.

Ocean carriers continue to have the negotiations advantage in the trans-Pacific, and there was little in the latest weekly data to suggest a change in the peak-season uptrend.

The reduction in capacity, less than anticipated, provides a slight amount of relief to shippers scrambling to find capacity this peak season.

If other carriers also offer one-off extra loaders in the coming month, the tight situation in the largest US trade lane could be relieved somewhat.

Space is so tight today in the eastbound Pacific that some beneficial cargo owners are paying higher than spot rates to get their shipments on vessels leaving Asia. However, there is a qualifier to that trend shippers should know about.