Recent quotes by carriers on their surcharges for more expensive low-sulfur fuel oil are confusing shippers and causing suspicion carriers are attempting to make unreasonable profits from the global LSFO mandate that took effect Wednesday.

The second straight weekly decline in spot rates in the eastbound Pacific seems to show that the peak shipping season was uneventful -- and that the 25 percent tariffs on $300 billion of imports from China due to go into effect Dec. 15 is having no significant impact on freight volumes.

Even before Wednesday’s announcement canceling the Nov. 15 Apec meeting in Chile, footwear importers were warned their industry would continue to encounter a drumbeat of uncertainty and possibly higher duty rates.

A slight increase in eastbound trans-Pacific spot rates reflects final shipments that left China before Golden Week, but dozens of blank sailings already announced for October-November indicate carriers expect imports to be weak going forward.

The tariff war between the US and China has cooled significantly with news the two powers have reached a “very substantial” first phase of a trade deal.

The US Customs and Border Protection is investigating three companies for possibly evading antidumping and countervailing duties on hardwood plywood imports.

After seeing four weeks of declining spot rates in September-- when rates should be increasing -- and with factory closures coming next week during Golden Week celebrations in China, NVOs who sell in the spot market say further rate declines are possible.

This week’s double-digit surge in spot rates is more tariff-driven than anything else because there is little cargo rolling in Asia to generate a bidding war among BCOs for vessel space leaving Asia.

Spot rates in the westbound Pacific took a sizable drop this month due to declining US exports to Asia, which are resulting in especially low vessel utilization rates. The normal strong rebound, which should begin in November, could be muted as a result.

Imports from China were down 2 percent in July and 4.4 percent below the same period seven-month period in 2018.

Reversing course, Global Port Tracker is now projecting monthly year-over-year declines, or minimal increases, in US merchandise imports in the trans-Pacific during the peak season.

Spot rates in the eastbound Pacific are starting to firm, but will not increase as dramatically as they did during the 2018 peak season because importers are taking tariff announcements in stride.

With US import growth of only 1.4 percent from all of Asia in the first half of 2019, and a 5 percent decline in imports from China, the six blanked sailings announced for June and July could be followed by others if volume growth disappoints during the coming peak season.

Despite strong expected consumer demand, uncertainty over the outcome of the US-China trade talks could reduce growth in US electronics imports in 2019, after 5.2 percent growth in 2018.

Before May 5, when President Donald Trump announced that tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports would rise from 10 percent to 25 percent, carriers were relatively sanguine about 2019 and for good reasons.

Post-consolidation, US container trade has been dominated by the largest ocean carriers and alliances, but smaller, independent lines continue to find a market in the trans-Pacific.