<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Vessel layups and new shipping alliances will help push up container shipping freight rates in coming months but many operators still will struggle to return to profitability, one analyst.
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Vessel layups and new shipping alliances will help push up container shipping freight rates in coming months but many operators still will struggle to return to profitability, one analyst.

<div>Vessel layups and new shipping alliances will help push up container shipping freight rates in coming months but many operators still will struggle to return to profitability, one analyst.&amp;ldquo;The newly formed alliances do offer the hope of improvement in rates over the second half of 2011, but to levels where many operators flirt with continued losses,&amp;rdquo; Janet Lewis, the Hong Kong-based head of Asia shipping research for Macquarie Capital Securities, said in an interview. &amp;ldquo;The first step is for the alliances to develop their strings with <a>capacity that meets market needs</a>, because if everyone is operating at just 80 percent...

Vessel layups and new shipping alliances will help push up container shipping freight rates in coming months but many operators still will struggle to return to profitability, one analyst. &ldquo;The newly formed alliances do offer the hope of improvement in rates over the second half of 2011, but to levels where many operators flirt with continued losses,&rdquo; Janet Lewis, the Hong Kong-based head of Asia shipping research for Macquarie Capital Securities, said in an interview. &ldquo;The first step is for the alliances to develop their strings with capacity that meets market needs , because if everyone is operating at just 80 percent load factors, pricing discipline won't hold,&rdquo; she said. The new G6 alliance that includes members of the Grand Alliance and the New World Alliance recently pushed up the start date of its Asia-Europe joint operations to March 1, coinciding with the launch of a Mediterranean Shipping-CMA CGM pact and the proposed implementation of aggressive new rate increases on the troubled trade lane. Lewis said a true rate rebound likely won&rsquo;t come until the peak season later this year. &ldquo;No carrier expects that the full amount of the proposed increases will be accepted by customers, but there was a strong belief that the tide has shifted direction and that they will achieve the first of what they hope will be a steady round of smaller increases over the course of the year,&rdquo; she said. &ldquo;We continue to believe that most operators will struggle to make money in 2012, but the outlook has nevertheless improved, said Lewis.

Container lines

Forwarding

Analyst Doubts Rapid Impact of Asia-Europe Rate Increases

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">While second- and third-rung lines can no longer aspire to grow into the big leagues unless they have very deep pockets, there is plenty of scope to avoid being trampled by the behemoths and quietly grow by trading on strengths, writes Jeremy Masters. </div>

While second- and third-rung lines can no longer aspire to grow into the big leagues unless they have very deep pockets, there is plenty of scope to avoid being trampled by the behemoths and quietly grow by trading on strengths, writes Jeremy Masters.

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<div class="phx-topic">As Alphaliner recently reported, Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC) has reached the milestone of 7 million TEUs in vessel capacity, and the eight largest carriers — the 1 million-plus-TEU club — now operate upwards of 80% of global capacity. The difference in punching power between MSC’s 7 million TEUs at No. 1 and Yang Ming’s 725,000 TEUs at No. 9 is already huge, but by the time we get to KMTC at No. 15, their fleet size is just 160,000 TEUs. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6148856_0.1.jpg"></img></div>Within their ocean capacity expansion, carriers like MSC and CMA CGM have scooped up a tremendous amount of second-hand tonnage from non-operating carriers in the smaller size ships, with the side effect of creating inelasticity of supply and higher prices in the charter market. MSC subsidiary Terminal Investment Limited (TiL) seeks to become the largest terminal operator globally. Maersk, CMA CGM, Cosco, Hapag-Lloyd, Evergreen and Ocean Network Express (ONE) also have substantial levels of terminal operating capacity directly and through subsidiary companies and want to build further. Expansion into logistics has further widened their capabilities, although in this case the big carriers do not have a commanding position. The fact that an elite set of carriers can now significantly control the global ocean sector, the container handling at many key hubs and, increasingly, the delivery to outports — and selectively to inland points — makes it tough for the rest of the carriers to compete comprehensively. <h3>Where the smaller lines dwell </h3>Midsize and smaller carriers having to find their way in a jungle of voracious predators is nothing new, but the predators are bigger and better equipped than ever before. So how can they prosper? Looking beyond Zim Integrated Shipping Services, Wan Hai Lines and Pacific International Lines (PIL) — Nos. 10, 11 and 12, respectively — which are not global operators but still have extensive networks, the rest of the top 30 fall into one or more of the following categories: pure regional carriers focused on one or two key regions, regional carriers focused on one or two key regions but with some deep-sea services that connect to their regional stronghold, or feeder operators that also have selective deep-sea routes. For Nos. 13 to 30, operated ship sizes are highly concentrated in the 1,000- to 8,000-TEU range, and the largest subcategories are below 3,000 TEUs. Whereas most of the big carriers have a balanced owned and charter fleet — and thus benefit from some averaging of costs — the midsize carrier fleets can range from almost 100% owned to 100% chartered. These two factors combine to give many of the smaller carriers a sizeable and volatile slot-cost deficiency in the major trades. <h3>Survive and prosper </h3>Midsize carriers with smaller ships can still participate in longer-haul big-ship trades, but they have to be opportunistic, as we have seen with Asia–North America West Coast. When cargo is insufficient and rates are low — as they are right now — there is a high likelihood that they starve, get eaten or both. Otherwise, it’s best they focus on trades predominantly populated by sub-8,000-TEU ships, so that their slot economics are competitive. Some of the more successful midsize carriers in long-haul trades have built out from a regional stronghold providing cargo flows that can be more sticky and less subject to acute rate volatility. If they also operate from regions like the Mediterranean or Southeast Asia, with significant connecting cargo possibilities, that enhances the pool of cargo and allows for some selectivity. Within any trade there are choices of port call, so it’s good to find some less-populated submarkets. There are six services linking Antwerp with New York, for example, but only one service linking Ringaskiddy, Ireland, with Wilmington, North Carolina. A particularly viable focus for midsize carriers is high-growth regional trades like intra-Asia, where those that operate with a competitive ship system cost, a lean organization and some niche products can happily survive, especially given that the biggest carriers often focus on the wayport legs in these trades. Whatever the size of the trade, the midsize and smaller carriers are well placed to design key client-focused services that are differentiated from a product or customer-service point of view. It’s no longer a world in which the second- and third-rung lines can aspire to grow into the big leagues, unless they have very deep pockets. There is, however, plenty of scope to avoid being trampled by the behemoths, differentiate and quietly grow by trading on strengths. Being nimble, lean and highly client-focused are key attributes for this segment. Jeremy Masters is managing director of Shipping Masters. Contact him at <a href="mailto:jeremy@shippingmastershk.com">jeremy@shippingmastershk.com</a>. </div>

As Alphaliner recently reported, Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC) has reached the milestone of 7 million TEUs in vessel capacity, and the eight largest carriers — the 1 million-plus-TEU club — now operate upwards of 80% of global capacity. The difference in punching power between MSC’s 7 million TEUs at No. 1 and Yang Ming’s 725,000 TEUs at No. 9 is already huge, but by the time we get to KMTC at No. 15, their fleet size is just 160,000 TEUs. Within their ocean capacity expansion, carriers like MSC and CMA CGM have scooped up a tremendous amount of second-hand tonnage from non-operating carriers in the smaller size ships, with the side effect of creating inelasticity of supply and higher prices in the charter market. MSC subsidiary Terminal Investment Limited (TiL) seeks to become the largest terminal operator globally. Maersk, CMA CGM, Cosco, Hapag-Lloyd, Evergreen and Ocean Network Express (ONE) also have substantial levels of terminal operating capacity directly and through subsidiary companies and want to build further. Expansion into logistics has further widened their capabilities, although in this case the big carriers do not have a commanding position. The fact that an elite set of carriers can now significantly control the global ocean sector, the container handling at many key hubs and, increasingly, the delivery to outports — and selectively to inland points — makes it tough for the rest of the carriers to compete comprehensively. Where the smaller lines dwell Midsize and smaller carriers having to find their way in a jungle of voracious predators is nothing new, but the predators are bigger and better equipped than ever before. So how can they prosper? Looking beyond Zim Integrated Shipping Services, Wan Hai Lines and Pacific International Lines (PIL) — Nos. 10, 11 and 12, respectively — which are not global operators but still have extensive networks, the rest of the top 30 fall into one or more of the following categories: pure regional carriers focused on one or two key regions, regional carriers focused on one or two key regions but with some deep-sea services that connect to their regional stronghold, or feeder operators that also have selective deep-sea routes. For Nos. 13 to 30, operated ship sizes are highly concentrated in the 1,000- to 8,000-TEU range, and the largest subcategories are below 3,000 TEUs. Whereas most of the big carriers have a balanced owned and charter fleet — and thus benefit from some averaging of costs — the midsize carrier fleets can range from almost 100% owned to 100% chartered. These two factors combine to give many of the smaller carriers a sizeable and volatile slot-cost deficiency in the major trades. Survive and prosper Midsize carriers with smaller ships can still participate in longer-haul big-ship trades, but they have to be opportunistic, as we have seen with Asia–North America West Coast. When cargo is insufficient and rates are low — as they are right now — there is a high likelihood that they starve, get eaten or both. Otherwise, it’s best they focus on trades predominantly populated by sub-8,000-TEU ships, so that their slot economics are competitive. Some of the more successful midsize carriers in long-haul trades have built out from a regional stronghold providing cargo flows that can be more sticky and less subject to acute rate volatility. If they also operate from regions like the Mediterranean or Southeast Asia, with significant connecting cargo possibilities, that enhances the pool of cargo and allows for some selectivity. Within any trade there are choices of port call, so it’s good to find some less-populated submarkets. There are six services linking Antwerp with New York, for example, but only one service linking Ringaskiddy, Ireland, with Wilmington, North Carolina. A particularly viable focus for midsize carriers is high-growth regional trades like intra-Asia, where those that operate with a competitive ship system cost, a lean organization and some niche products can happily survive, especially given that the biggest carriers often focus on the wayport legs in these trades. Whatever the size of the trade, the midsize and smaller carriers are well placed to design key client-focused services that are differentiated from a product or customer-service point of view. It’s no longer a world in which the second- and third-rung lines can aspire to grow into the big leagues, unless they have very deep pockets. There is, however, plenty of scope to avoid being trampled by the behemoths, differentiate and quietly grow by trading on strengths. Being nimble, lean and highly client-focused are key attributes for this segment. Jeremy Masters is managing director of Shipping Masters. Contact him at jeremy@shippingmastershk.com .

Maritime

Smaller ocean carriers can still prosper in a world of hungry ‘predators’

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Stakeholders say a contract with Harbor Industrial Services to manage the state’s only box terminal should herald a new era of stability and cargo growth. </div>

Stakeholders say a contract with Harbor Industrial Services to manage the state’s only box terminal should herald a new era of stability and cargo growth.

<div class="phx-topic">The formal handover of stevedore management at Portland’s sole container terminal to a third-party operator on Wednesday ensures state agriculture exporters have access to a weekly Asian service after financial challenges threatened the Oregon port. Harbor Industrial Services on Monday took over operation of the port-managed Terminal 6 — now renamed Oregon Container Terminal (OCT) — and will oversee vessel and rail services for importers and exporters in Oregon, southwest Washington State and Idaho. “Securing a long-term operator for container service at Terminal 6 means exporters and importers across the state and region can keep moving their goods efficiently, competitively and closer to home while supporting thousands of family-wage jobs,” Port of Portland Executive Director Curtis Robinhold said during handover ceremonies Wednesday. The port did not provide specifics on the length of the contract with Harbor Industrial Services, only referring to it as a “long-term lease.” SM Line currently serves OCT with a weekly service that brings in imports from Asia such as tires, electronics, furniture and supplies used by businesses in their production processes. The vessels return to Asia with containerized exports such as grain, hay, berries and wood products, according to a statement from the port. Mediterranean Shipping Co. also had a weekly service from Asia to Portland earlier in 2025, but that service was paused due to tariffs and related federal trade policies as the carrier shifted space on the vessels to serve countries where it did not face high fees, the port said. Portland reached a “framework agreement” with Harbor Industrial Services in late 2024 to oversee operation of Terminal 6. The port had registered <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/port-of-portland-strikes-deal-with-stevedore-to-operate-container-terminal-5897345">losses of $26 million from 2023 through 2024.</a><h3>Troublesome venture with first private operator </h3>Portland for more than 30 years was an operating port, but it consistently lost money, and the port signed a lease with Philippine-based ICTSI in 2010 to manage Terminal 6. In a 2015 interview with the Journal of Commerce, Portland Executive Director Bill Wyatt said when the port first went out to bid for a private sector terminal operator, it was <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/outgoing-portland-port-president-predicts-box-service-return-5193131">losing as much as $17 million a year.</a>But the situation did not improve under a private operator. As a <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ilwu-action-disrupts-work-at-portlands-terminal-6-5232355">result of non-stop labor turmoil</a>, Portland <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/sm-line-returns-container-service-to-portland-in-wake-of-ilwu-ruling-5243887">was without a regular liner service for about three years</a> until 2018. Its three carriers pulled out of the port while labor action continued and litigation between ICTSI and the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) dragged on. A costly, decade-long case was settled in February 2024 when the <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ilwu-ictsi-oregon-end-legal-dispute-bankruptcy-case-with-205-million-settlement-5244722">ILWU agreed to pay ICTSI $20.5 million in damages.</a>Container volumes at Terminal 6 suffered during the tumultuous decade. Portland last year through November handled 60,734 laden TEUs, according to PIERS, a Journal of Commerce sister product within S&amp;P Global. That’s a far cry from 2000 to 2005, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/labor-peace-drives-portlands-container-recovery-5245968">when the port handled more than 300,000 TEUs annually</a>, according to PIERS data. “OCT is about reliability, growth and partnership,” OCT President Tim McCarthy said at Wednesday’s ceremonies. “This terminal gives shippers from Oregon and inland locations a stable, efficient and competitive gateway, backed by 210 acres of already-developed infrastructure, experienced operators and a skilled workforce with a proven record of productivity.” “This is one of the good outcomes that can be achieved when government, business and labor work together for the benefit of Oregonians,” said Stuart Strader, speaking on behalf of ILWU Local 8. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The formal handover of stevedore management at Portland’s sole container terminal to a third-party operator on Wednesday ensures state agriculture exporters have access to a weekly Asian service after financial challenges threatened the Oregon port. Harbor Industrial Services on Monday took over operation of the port-managed Terminal 6 — now renamed Oregon Container Terminal (OCT) — and will oversee vessel and rail services for importers and exporters in Oregon, southwest Washington State and Idaho. “Securing a long-term operator for container service at Terminal 6 means exporters and importers across the state and region can keep moving their goods efficiently, competitively and closer to home while supporting thousands of family-wage jobs,” Port of Portland Executive Director Curtis Robinhold said during handover ceremonies Wednesday. The port did not provide specifics on the length of the contract with Harbor Industrial Services, only referring to it as a “long-term lease.” SM Line currently serves OCT with a weekly service that brings in imports from Asia such as tires, electronics, furniture and supplies used by businesses in their production processes. The vessels return to Asia with containerized exports such as grain, hay, berries and wood products, according to a statement from the port. Mediterranean Shipping Co. also had a weekly service from Asia to Portland earlier in 2025, but that service was paused due to tariffs and related federal trade policies as the carrier shifted space on the vessels to serve countries where it did not face high fees, the port said. Portland reached a “framework agreement” with Harbor Industrial Services in late 2024 to oversee operation of Terminal 6. The port had registered losses of $26 million from 2023 through 2024. Troublesome venture with first private operator Portland for more than 30 years was an operating port, but it consistently lost money, and the port signed a lease with Philippine-based ICTSI in 2010 to manage Terminal 6. In a 2015 interview with the Journal of Commerce, Portland Executive Director Bill Wyatt said when the port first went out to bid for a private sector terminal operator, it was losing as much as $17 million a year. But the situation did not improve under a private operator. As a result of non-stop labor turmoil , Portland was without a regular liner service for about three years until 2018. Its three carriers pulled out of the port while labor action continued and litigation between ICTSI and the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) dragged on. A costly, decade-long case was settled in February 2024 when the ILWU agreed to pay ICTSI $20.5 million in damages. Container volumes at Terminal 6 suffered during the tumultuous decade. Portland last year through November handled 60,734 laden TEUs, according to PIERS, a Journal of Commerce sister product within S&P Global. That’s a far cry from 2000 to 2005, when the port handled more than 300,000 TEUs annually , according to PIERS data. “OCT is about reliability, growth and partnership,” OCT President Tim McCarthy said at Wednesday’s ceremonies. “This terminal gives shippers from Oregon and inland locations a stable, efficient and competitive gateway, backed by 210 acres of already-developed infrastructure, experienced operators and a skilled workforce with a proven record of productivity.” “This is one of the good outcomes that can be achieved when government, business and labor work together for the benefit of Oregonians,” said Stuart Strader, speaking on behalf of ILWU Local 8. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .

Port News

Trans-Pacific

North American ports

Marine terminals

Container Shipping News

Operator switch gives renewed hope to Portland’s Terminal 6

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The action is tied to WiseTech’s acquisition of E2open in 2025, which included software that Australia’s competition commission deemed gave WiseTech too much control of the market.</div>

The action is tied to WiseTech’s acquisition of E2open in 2025, which included software that Australia’s competition commission deemed gave WiseTech too much control of the market.

<div class="phx-topic">Australian regulators are forcing WiseTech Global to sell an Oceania-based customs and forwarding software unit it took over as part of its $2.1 billion <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/wisetech-notches-biggest-acquisition-with-21-billion-deal-for-e2open-6011581">acquisition of E2open</a> in mid-2025. The company, Expedient, was initially acquired by BluJay Solutions in 2020, prior to BluJay <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/e2open-acquires-blujay-solutions-for-17-billion-5249821">being acquired in 2021 by E2open.</a> Forwarders in Australia argued to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) that WiseTech’s ownership of Expedient gave it too large a share of the market that software forwarders and customs brokers use to run their businesses. WiseTech’s flagship product, CargoWise One, is the most used forwarding software globally. Expedient will be sold, subject to ACCC approval, to a purchaser that will be able to operate it as a viable competitor to WiseTech in Australia, according to a statement from the regulator this week. “The ACCC considers that WiseTech already has substantial market power in the supply of logistics software, and the acquisition has the effect of removing the competition between CargoWise and Expedient and significantly reduced the choice available to Australian customers,” ACCC Chairwoman Gina Cass-Gottlieb said in the statement. “The ACCC received significant concerns from users of logistics software during the investigation, and was concerned that the acquisition could lead to higher prices or lower quality services.” WiseTech’s rollup of core customs compliance software in various regions has been a key foundation of its ascent to become <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/cargowises-pricing-model-change-could-mark-final-milestone-in-market-ascent-6133279">the biggest forwarding software provider globally</a>. Contact Eric Johnson at <a href="mailto:eric.johnson@spglobal.com">eric.johnson@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Australian regulators are forcing WiseTech Global to sell an Oceania-based customs and forwarding software unit it took over as part of its $2.1 billion acquisition of E2open in mid-2025. The company, Expedient, was initially acquired by BluJay Solutions in 2020, prior to BluJay being acquired in 2021 by E2open. Forwarders in Australia argued to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) that WiseTech’s ownership of Expedient gave it too large a share of the market that software forwarders and customs brokers use to run their businesses. WiseTech’s flagship product, CargoWise One, is the most used forwarding software globally. Expedient will be sold, subject to ACCC approval, to a purchaser that will be able to operate it as a viable competitor to WiseTech in Australia, according to a statement from the regulator this week. “The ACCC considers that WiseTech already has substantial market power in the supply of logistics software, and the acquisition has the effect of removing the competition between CargoWise and Expedient and significantly reduced the choice available to Australian customers,” ACCC Chairwoman Gina Cass-Gottlieb said in the statement. “The ACCC received significant concerns from users of logistics software during the investigation, and was concerned that the acquisition could lead to higher prices or lower quality services.” WiseTech’s rollup of core customs compliance software in various regions has been a key foundation of its ascent to become the biggest forwarding software provider globally . Contact Eric Johnson at eric.johnson@spglobal.com .

Logistics Technology News

Supply chain

Australian regulators force WiseTech to sell software vendor

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The storm is bringing fierce winds and Arctic conditions to the region, impacting ocean, road and rail freight transport.</div>

The storm is bringing fierce winds and Arctic conditions to the region, impacting ocean, road and rail freight transport.

<div class="phx-topic">Heavy snow, ice and freezing temperatures are disrupting port and inland operations and grounding flights across Northern Europe as a winter storm hammers the region. Hundreds of flights in France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany were canceled Wednesday because of snow, high winds and icy conditions that are also affecting container terminal handling and road and rail networks. Maersk noted in an advisory that operations at key terminals, particularly in Rotterdam and Hamburg, were being disrupted. “As a result, productivity at terminals and depots has been reduced, while snow and icy road conditions are causing traffic congestion and delays for trucks,” the carrier said. “Rail services are also being affected by frozen track switches, leading to service disruptions and cancellations,” the advisory added, with the rail woes contributing to longer waiting times for import and export cargo and increasing yard congestion at hub ports in Northern Europe. <h3>Hamburg disruptions</h3>Terminal operator Eurogate is facing disruptions from snow, ice and strong winds at its Port of Hamburg facilities, but a spokesperson said its other German locations have so far been spared from the severe weather. “This may change, as the weather forecast for the coming days predicts very low temperatures, precipitation and strong winds for the whole of northern Germany,” the Eurogate spokesperson told the Journal of Commerce. “We are preparing as well as possible for these weather conditions but in some cases, we may have to pause operations.” A spokesperson for the Port of Hamburg said heavy snowfall restricted rail traffic last weekend, and while rail operations were “gradually returning to normal,” it will take time to clear backlogs. “Operations are running at the container terminals, but weather conditions are causing delays in handling across all modes of transport,” the port spokesperson said. “Winter service teams at the terminals are currently working flat out to ensure that handling operations continue as smoothly as possible.” Maersk highlighted challenging inland operating conditions in Northern Europe, warning of slower processing of trucks at Antwerp and Rotterdam, disrupted rail services between Rotterdam and Venlo, and delays between Rotterdam and Duisburg. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Heavy snow, ice and freezing temperatures are disrupting port and inland operations and grounding flights across Northern Europe as a winter storm hammers the region. Hundreds of flights in France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany were canceled Wednesday because of snow, high winds and icy conditions that are also affecting container terminal handling and road and rail networks. Maersk noted in an advisory that operations at key terminals, particularly in Rotterdam and Hamburg, were being disrupted. “As a result, productivity at terminals and depots has been reduced, while snow and icy road conditions are causing traffic congestion and delays for trucks,” the carrier said. “Rail services are also being affected by frozen track switches, leading to service disruptions and cancellations,” the advisory added, with the rail woes contributing to longer waiting times for import and export cargo and increasing yard congestion at hub ports in Northern Europe. Hamburg disruptions Terminal operator Eurogate is facing disruptions from snow, ice and strong winds at its Port of Hamburg facilities, but a spokesperson said its other German locations have so far been spared from the severe weather. “This may change, as the weather forecast for the coming days predicts very low temperatures, precipitation and strong winds for the whole of northern Germany,” the Eurogate spokesperson told the Journal of Commerce. “We are preparing as well as possible for these weather conditions but in some cases, we may have to pause operations.” A spokesperson for the Port of Hamburg said heavy snowfall restricted rail traffic last weekend, and while rail operations were “gradually returning to normal,” it will take time to clear backlogs. “Operations are running at the container terminals, but weather conditions are causing delays in handling across all modes of transport,” the port spokesperson said. “Winter service teams at the terminals are currently working flat out to ensure that handling operations continue as smoothly as possible.” Maersk highlighted challenging inland operating conditions in Northern Europe, warning of slower processing of trucks at Antwerp and Rotterdam, disrupted rail services between Rotterdam and Venlo, and delays between Rotterdam and Duisburg. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Rail News

Surface

International ports

International rail

Severe winter storm disrupts North Europe port, inland operations

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Contract shippers have not felt the impact of the surge last month in spot market truckload rates, but that could change amid market uncertainty as 2026 begins.</div>

Contract shippers have not felt the impact of the surge last month in spot market truckload rates, but that could change amid market uncertainty as 2026 begins.

<div class="phx-topic">The newfound strength in US truckload pricing could become a turning point if it lasts until mid-February, long enough that shippers could see it in their contracts, but there are also plenty of hazards that could cause the freight recession to linger into a fourth year, analysts warn. Truckload spot rates were largely tepid between February and November, but shot up 19 cents per mile in December from November, which was also a 9.1% increase year over year, according to a Journal of Commerce analysis of truckload data from DAT Freight and Analytics and managed transportation provider Loadsmart. The average national rate paid by shippers last month was $2.46 per mile across the US, including fuel, on lanes 250 miles or greater. “I do think a lot of [the] rate increase in December was weather driven ... winter weather hitting the Midwest and Northeast,” David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, said Tuesday on the Meet Me for Coffee podcast hosted by Samantha Jones. “Rates are going to come back down. I think it’s a short-lived season volatility.” Jason Miller, professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, said the key month to watch is February. Rates tend to remain slightly elevated in January because of the reverse logistics involved in returning Christmas gifts. But if rates remain elevated through February — which Miller doesn’t believe will happen — then pricing power could shift to the carriers. “We’re entering this year, from a manufacturing standpoint, in a worse position today than we were entering last year,” Miller said on the podcast. A shipper who did not want to be identified told the Journal of Commerce that his contract truckload carriers have not broached the subject of raising contract rates based off the December spot market surge. <h3>Data picture is cloudy </h3>Economists are working through the backlog of data that accumulated during the 43-day government shutdown in October and November. “The hard part is that we’re still waiting for a lot of government data that we’d love to have,” Miller said. “New single family home permits were down 10% year over year last August, but that feels like ancient history.” The S&amp;P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was in expansion territory in December at 51.8, but the outlook was much more cautious. “Something of a Wile E. Coyote scenario has developed, whereby — just like the cartoon character continues to run despite chasing the roadrunner off a cliff — factories are continuing to produce goods despite suffering a drop in orders,” wrote Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence. The gap between production and new orders was the widest since the Great Recession of 2008–09, indicating “current factory production levels are clearly unsustainable,” Williamson wrote. That’s relevant because industrial freight powers the trucks and railroads, hauling raw materials and intermediate products used to make durable and non-durable consumer products. There are other signs that could cool the December euphoria of carriers, including the federal government this month beginning to garnish the wages of those who are delinquent on their student loans, a practice that was halted during the COVID-19 pandemic. “Holiday shopping is often on credit cards, and so when we start seeing wage garnishments to pay student loans, it’s going to create real strain on some consumers,” Aaron Terrazas, an independent economist who previously worked for companies such as Convoy, Glassdoor and Zillow, said on the Jones webcast. <h3>Things could change fast </h3>Despite the lackluster macroeconomic picture, there are unknowns that could quickly shock the market and shift pricing power back to carriers. The US Supreme Court must rule on whether President Donald Trump had the authority to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to apply reciprocal tariffs across dozens of trading partners last year. The Court will hand down a series of rulings this Friday, but it is unknown if the tariffs case will be one of them. If the Court rules against Trump, and the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates, it could create a one-two punch that could shock the markets. “There will be a window which I think shippers will just force as much they can through the pipe before the administration finds another way to get tariffs in place,” Terrazas said. “If the pipe opens, even if it’s for just two or three months, I think you’ll see just an absolute bonanza ... It’ll be absolute and total hell on all transportation managers [shippers].” If the Court rules for Trump, however, the administration has floated the idea of issuing tariff rebate checks of up to $2,000 to US citizens. If people receive that money, it could be the demand catalyst to kickstart a freight recovery, according to Terrazas and Miller. There is also the battle between the US Department of Transportation (USDOT) and several states over rescinding non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) to asylum seekers and other visa holders that were previously qualified. California announced a 60-day extension on canceling the non-domiciled CDLs, kicking the issue to March, while the USDOT has threatened to withhold federal funds over that decision. It is unclear what the impact on both truckload and port drayage would be if California canceled as many as 17,000 non-domiciled CDLs.“I think vulnerability to sustained disruption is a major issue,” Spencer said on the webcast. “Use this past little stretch in December as a good indicator of what to expect because there are going to be periods of volatility.” Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The newfound strength in US truckload pricing could become a turning point if it lasts until mid-February, long enough that shippers could see it in their contracts, but there are also plenty of hazards that could cause the freight recession to linger into a fourth year, analysts warn. Truckload spot rates were largely tepid between February and November, but shot up 19 cents per mile in December from November, which was also a 9.1% increase year over year, according to a Journal of Commerce analysis of truckload data from DAT Freight and Analytics and managed transportation provider Loadsmart. The average national rate paid by shippers last month was $2.46 per mile across the US, including fuel, on lanes 250 miles or greater. “I do think a lot of [the] rate increase in December was weather driven ... winter weather hitting the Midwest and Northeast,” David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, said Tuesday on the Meet Me for Coffee podcast hosted by Samantha Jones. “Rates are going to come back down. I think it’s a short-lived season volatility.” Jason Miller, professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, said the key month to watch is February. Rates tend to remain slightly elevated in January because of the reverse logistics involved in returning Christmas gifts. But if rates remain elevated through February — which Miller doesn’t believe will happen — then pricing power could shift to the carriers. “We’re entering this year, from a manufacturing standpoint, in a worse position today than we were entering last year,” Miller said on the podcast. A shipper who did not want to be identified told the Journal of Commerce that his contract truckload carriers have not broached the subject of raising contract rates based off the December spot market surge. Data picture is cloudy Economists are working through the backlog of data that accumulated during the 43-day government shutdown in October and November. “The hard part is that we’re still waiting for a lot of government data that we’d love to have,” Miller said. “New single family home permits were down 10% year over year last August, but that feels like ancient history.” The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was in expansion territory in December at 51.8, but the outlook was much more cautious. “Something of a Wile E. Coyote scenario has developed, whereby — just like the cartoon character continues to run despite chasing the roadrunner off a cliff — factories are continuing to produce goods despite suffering a drop in orders,” wrote Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. The gap between production and new orders was the widest since the Great Recession of 2008–09, indicating “current factory production levels are clearly unsustainable,” Williamson wrote. That’s relevant because industrial freight powers the trucks and railroads, hauling raw materials and intermediate products used to make durable and non-durable consumer products. There are other signs that could cool the December euphoria of carriers, including the federal government this month beginning to garnish the wages of those who are delinquent on their student loans, a practice that was halted during the COVID-19 pandemic. “Holiday shopping is often on credit cards, and so when we start seeing wage garnishments to pay student loans, it’s going to create real strain on some consumers,” Aaron Terrazas, an independent economist who previously worked for companies such as Convoy, Glassdoor and Zillow, said on the Jones webcast. Things could change fast Despite the lackluster macroeconomic picture, there are unknowns that could quickly shock the market and shift pricing power back to carriers. The US Supreme Court must rule on whether President Donald Trump had the authority to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to apply reciprocal tariffs across dozens of trading partners last year. The Court will hand down a series of rulings this Friday, but it is unknown if the tariffs case will be one of them. If the Court rules against Trump, and the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates, it could create a one-two punch that could shock the markets. “There will be a window which I think shippers will just force as much they can through the pipe before the administration finds another way to get tariffs in place,” Terrazas said. “If the pipe opens, even if it’s for just two or three months, I think you’ll see just an absolute bonanza ... It’ll be absolute and total hell on all transportation managers [shippers].” If the Court rules for Trump, however, the administration has floated the idea of issuing tariff rebate checks of up to $2,000 to US citizens. If people receive that money, it could be the demand catalyst to kickstart a freight recovery, according to Terrazas and Miller. There is also the battle between the US Department of Transportation (USDOT) and several states over rescinding non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) to asylum seekers and other visa holders that were previously qualified. California announced a 60-day extension on canceling the non-domiciled CDLs, kicking the issue to March, while the USDOT has threatened to withhold federal funds over that decision. It is unclear what the impact on both truckload and port drayage would be if California canceled as many as 17,000 non-domiciled CDLs. “I think vulnerability to sustained disruption is a major issue,” Spencer said on the webcast. “Use this past little stretch in December as a good indicator of what to expect because there are going to be periods of volatility.” Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

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