<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Carriers are in a precarious financial position, facing a cash flow crisis amid weak volume and huge capacity cuts, and no clarity on when demand will return.</div>

Carriers are in a precarious financial position, facing a cash flow crisis amid weak volume and huge capacity cuts, and no clarity on when demand will return.

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<div class="phx-topic">A deteriorating global economic outlook as major markets struggle to limit the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is threatening to prolong the financial pain being felt by carriers that have been forced to make extensive capacity cuts in a bid to match rapidly declining demand.Economists at JOC.com parent company IHS Markit released a bleak new assessment this week, predicting the US economy will not emerge from negative GDP growth until at least the fourth quarter, and that in Europe, a severe recession is now unavoidable. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its April revision that, “As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by minus 3 percent in 2020, much worse than during the 2008-09 financial crisis.” Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO, said in a webinar hosted by the shipping association this week that every economic forecast made in the last six months has moved from plus to minus. “The IMF is clear that this is way worse than the global financial crisis of 2009 when GDP growth was minus 0.1 percent,” Sand said. “Our expectations in 2020 are for negative growth of 2-3 percent.” Carriers have reacted to these gloomy forecasts by announcing plans to increase capacity withdrawals over the next few weeks that will result in 20 percent of the trans-Pacific capacity being taken out of service, while the Asia-Europe trades will see cumulative capacity cuts reaching 25 to 30 percent, according to Sea-Intelligence Maritime Consulting. In its latest Sunday Spotlight newsletter, the analyst said the capacity withdrawals will result in a volume loss of 6.4 million TEU by the end of June.<h2>Carriers on the edge</h2>The cash flow loss from such a significant decline in volumes is hurting carriers that were already in a precarious financial position even before the coronavirus became a global issue. In a survey of the container shipping companies’ Altman Z-scores as of the end of 2019, Alphaliner found that seven out of the 11 carriers recorded Z-scores of less than 1.3, indicating a “very high” likelihood of insolvency within the next two years. Carriers with elevated leverage ratios were especially vulnerable, Alphaliner noted, in particular those with high levels of short-term debt that was due this year. Of the 11 carriers surveyed, six had negative working capital — meaning current liabilities exceeding current assets — including CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, HMM, PIL, Yang Ming, and Zim. Carriers with poor track records of negative earnings were also at risk, with three carriers’ Z-scores lowered due to their negative retained earnings (HMM, Yang Ming, and Zim). As the coronavirus impact on demand worsens across international supply chains, Moody’s Investor Service on March 31 <a href="https://www.joc.com/maritime-news/high-debt-levels-leave-container-lines-exposed_20200406.html">changed its ratings outlook</a> on Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk Line from “stable” to “negative.” The ratings agency also announced plans to review the current negative rating of CMA CGM, saying in an April 1 announcement that the carrier’s capital structure was too weak for it to maintain its current high credit risk rating of B2.Despite the high debt levels and the potential for insolvencies in container shipping, Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, was not convinced that <a href="https://www.joc.com/special-topics/hanjin-shipping-bankruptcy">another Hanjin</a> would be allowed to happen. “In the last 30 years, only Hanjin went bankrupt, and everyone will move very far to avoid another Hanjin,” Murphy said on the BIMCO webinar. “But if we see a 10 percent volume drop and freight rate decline as was recorded in 2009, we will see operating profits of the last eight years being wiped out. The industry simply cannot work with that. It is not possible, and if that happens, there will need to be some kind of subsidy for the industry to avoid another Hanjin, because that will cost so much more than trying to save a failing carrier.”Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@ihsmarkit.com">greg.knowler@ihsmarkit.com </a>and follow him on Twitter: <a href="https://twitter.com/greg_knowler">@greg_knowler</a>.</div>

A deteriorating global economic outlook as major markets struggle to limit the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is threatening to prolong the financial pain being felt by carriers that have been forced to make extensive capacity cuts in a bid to match rapidly declining demand. Economists at JOC.com parent company IHS Markit released a bleak new assessment this week, predicting the US economy will not emerge from negative GDP growth until at least the fourth quarter, and that in Europe, a severe recession is now unavoidable. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its April revision that, “As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by minus 3 percent in 2020, much worse than during the 2008-09 financial crisis.” Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO, said in a webinar hosted by the shipping association this week that every economic forecast made in the last six months has moved from plus to minus. “The IMF is clear that this is way worse than the global financial crisis of 2009 when GDP growth was minus 0.1 percent,” Sand said. “Our expectations in 2020 are for negative growth of 2-3 percent.” Carriers have reacted to these gloomy forecasts by announcing plans to increase capacity withdrawals over the next few weeks that will result in 20 percent of the trans-Pacific capacity being taken out of service, while the Asia-Europe trades will see cumulative capacity cuts reaching 25 to 30 percent, according to Sea-Intelligence Maritime Consulting. In its latest Sunday Spotlight newsletter, the analyst said the capacity withdrawals will result in a volume loss of 6.4 million TEU by the end of June. Carriers on the edge The cash flow loss from such a significant decline in volumes is hurting carriers that were already in a precarious financial position even before the coronavirus became a global issue. In a survey of the container shipping companies’ Altman Z-scores as of the end of 2019, Alphaliner found that seven out of the 11 carriers recorded Z-scores of less than 1.3, indicating a “very high” likelihood of insolvency within the next two years. Carriers with elevated leverage ratios were especially vulnerable, Alphaliner noted, in particular those with high levels of short-term debt that was due this year. Of the 11 carriers surveyed, six had negative working capital — meaning current liabilities exceeding current assets — including CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, HMM, PIL, Yang Ming, and Zim. Carriers with poor track records of negative earnings were also at risk, with three carriers’ Z-scores lowered due to their negative retained earnings (HMM, Yang Ming, and Zim). As the coronavirus impact on demand worsens across international supply chains, Moody’s Investor Service on March 31 changed its ratings outlook on Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk Line from “stable” to “negative.” The ratings agency also announced plans to review the current negative rating of CMA CGM, saying in an April 1 announcement that the carrier’s capital structure was too weak for it to maintain its current high credit risk rating of B2. Despite the high debt levels and the potential for insolvencies in container shipping, Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, was not convinced that another Hanjin would be allowed to happen. “In the last 30 years, only Hanjin went bankrupt, and everyone will move very far to avoid another Hanjin,” Murphy said on the BIMCO webinar. “But if we see a 10 percent volume drop and freight rate decline as was recorded in 2009, we will see operating profits of the last eight years being wiped out. The industry simply cannot work with that. It is not possible, and if that happens, there will need to be some kind of subsidy for the industry to avoid another Hanjin, because that will cost so much more than trying to save a failing carrier.” Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@ihsmarkit.com and follow him on Twitter: @greg_knowler .

Maritime

Grim economic outlook to extend suffering for carriers

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Trump administration’s two nominees to fill open positions on the Federal Maritime Commission say ongoing enforcement of existing law can help bring more efficiency to commercial shipping. </div>

The Trump administration’s two nominees to fill open positions on the Federal Maritime Commission say ongoing enforcement of existing law can help bring more efficiency to commercial shipping.

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<div class="phx-topic">President Donald Trump’s two nominees to the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) said Wednesday a competitive, open market should attract more investment to the sector and enhance its efficiency. That came as Trump’s pick to head up the US Maritime Administration (Marad) said the federal government needs to put more of its weight behind the industry if the US hopes to dent China’s shipping dominance. During confirmation hearings, Robert Harvey, one of <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/trump-taps-two-floridians-to-serve-on-the-fmc-6075573">Trump’s two nominees to the FMC</a>, told the Senate’s Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee he wants the agency to continue ensuring fair treatment of US shippers by close monitoring of ocean carriers and their alliance agreements. Harvey cited his previous role as an attorney involved in securities litigation and financial regulation as necessary for ensuring carriers comply with US maritime law. “Nothing gets an industry member’s attention like an enforcement action,” he said. “We’ll be watching the alliances to make sure there are not any anticompetitive practices.” Laura DiBella, Trump’s other nominee to the FMC, said the agency can’t change the fact that about a dozen global ocean carriers handle almost all US cargo. But the FMC can make sure US shippers are being treated fairly. “The carriers make the market,” DiBella said. “However, we need to provide some good oversight.” The nominees did not offer any suggestions about further enhancements to US maritime law beyond the scope of the Ocean Shipping Reform Act of 2022 (OSRA-22). But in response to questions about a key aspect of OSRA-22 — detention and demurrage practices — DiBella said the agency could do more about “uncovering efficiencies and why cargo is delayed.” Harvey, who also served on Florida’s state-backed investment agency, said US maritime law should be used to develop solutions for cargo delays and supply chain bottlenecks. “I want to ensure [that] regulations encourage innovation,” he said. “If we can create fair and competitive markets, private capital will flow to fix these problems.” <h3>‘Archaic’ US ports </h3>Along with the FMC picks, Stephen Carmel, Trump’s nominee to head Marad, spoke about the need to invest more in the US maritime industry. In response to a question from Sen. Ted Cruz (R — Texas) about why “archaic” American ports lag the productivity of their Asian and European counterparts, the former Maersk executive said US ports need to invest more in technology. “There’s no question about it,” Carmel said. “We need to be using technology to leverage our labor and allow them to be more productive. We should use tech not to displace jobs, but to enhance them.” Even worse than US ports, though, are the US shipbuilding and merchant marine industries, both of which Carmel said are on a “lifeline” with no clear path to countering China’s maritime industries. He said the lack of opportunities for US merchant mariners in international trade means few people want to join the industry and keep it growing. “We need to do a better job of generating cargo [for a domestic fleet],” Carmel said. “It’s very difficult to attract people into industry if they’re afraid that in a year or two the ship or job they signed on is not going to be there.” Carmel, a former merchant mariner, said he supports the bipartisan <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/legislation-aims-to-mandate-rising-share-of-china-imports-on-expanded-us-flag-fleet-5909698">SHIPS for America Act</a> that aims to rebuild domestic shipbuilding through cargo preferences for US-based carriers, adding that government cargoes are not enough to sustain the industry. He also said the maritime security trust fund mentioned in Trump’s April executive order meant to aid US shipbuilding would also go a long way to reviving domestic shipbuilding. “For ships in the international trade, we can’t build them at all,” he said. “We don’t carry our own commerce. We need demand generation.” It’s not known when the Senate will hold confirmation votes on the three nominees. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto: michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

President Donald Trump’s two nominees to the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) said Wednesday a competitive, open market should attract more investment to the sector and enhance its efficiency. That came as Trump’s pick to head up the US Maritime Administration (Marad) said the federal government needs to put more of its weight behind the industry if the US hopes to dent China’s shipping dominance. During confirmation hearings, Robert Harvey, one of Trump’s two nominees to the FMC , told the Senate’s Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee he wants the agency to continue ensuring fair treatment of US shippers by close monitoring of ocean carriers and their alliance agreements. Harvey cited his previous role as an attorney involved in securities litigation and financial regulation as necessary for ensuring carriers comply with US maritime law. “Nothing gets an industry member’s attention like an enforcement action,” he said. “We’ll be watching the alliances to make sure there are not any anticompetitive practices.” Laura DiBella, Trump’s other nominee to the FMC, said the agency can’t change the fact that about a dozen global ocean carriers handle almost all US cargo. But the FMC can make sure US shippers are being treated fairly. “The carriers make the market,” DiBella said. “However, we need to provide some good oversight.” The nominees did not offer any suggestions about further enhancements to US maritime law beyond the scope of the Ocean Shipping Reform Act of 2022 (OSRA-22). But in response to questions about a key aspect of OSRA-22 — detention and demurrage practices — DiBella said the agency could do more about “uncovering efficiencies and why cargo is delayed.” Harvey, who also served on Florida’s state-backed investment agency, said US maritime law should be used to develop solutions for cargo delays and supply chain bottlenecks. “I want to ensure [that] regulations encourage innovation,” he said. “If we can create fair and competitive markets, private capital will flow to fix these problems.” ‘Archaic’ US ports Along with the FMC picks, Stephen Carmel, Trump’s nominee to head Marad, spoke about the need to invest more in the US maritime industry. In response to a question from Sen. Ted Cruz (R — Texas) about why “archaic” American ports lag the productivity of their Asian and European counterparts, the former Maersk executive said US ports need to invest more in technology. “There’s no question about it,” Carmel said. “We need to be using technology to leverage our labor and allow them to be more productive. We should use tech not to displace jobs, but to enhance them.” Even worse than US ports, though, are the US shipbuilding and merchant marine industries, both of which Carmel said are on a “lifeline” with no clear path to countering China’s maritime industries. He said the lack of opportunities for US merchant mariners in international trade means few people want to join the industry and keep it growing. “We need to do a better job of generating cargo [for a domestic fleet],” Carmel said. “It’s very difficult to attract people into industry if they’re afraid that in a year or two the ship or job they signed on is not going to be there.” Carmel, a former merchant mariner, said he supports the bipartisan SHIPS for America Act that aims to rebuild domestic shipbuilding through cargo preferences for US-based carriers, adding that government cargoes are not enough to sustain the industry. He also said the maritime security trust fund mentioned in Trump’s April executive order meant to aid US shipbuilding would also go a long way to reviving domestic shipbuilding. “For ships in the international trade, we can’t build them at all,” he said. “We don’t carry our own commerce. We need demand generation.” It’s not known when the Senate will hold confirmation votes on the three nominees. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Container lines

North American ports

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

FMC nominees pledge level playing field for US shippers

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Some of the largest less-than-truckload carriers are announcing non-contract GRIs, but the state of the freight market argues against substantial rate increases.</div>

Some of the largest less-than-truckload carriers are announcing non-contract GRIs, but the state of the freight market argues against substantial rate increases.

<div class="phx-topic">Whether freight demand is up or down, US less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers are planning to hike pricing in 2026, starting with tariff rates for non-contractual customers. LTL capacity remains lower than before Yellow went out of business in July 2023, and operating costs are rising. But industrial and retail shippers still waiting for a surge in demand for their products are expected to resist significant rate hikes while rethinking transportation choices. That includes moving more LTL freight to less expensive <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/truckload-carriers-capturing-more-ltl-shipments-fedex-freight-6083463">truckload trailers</a>, where possible. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="b8bff0bb-e602-4052-88a8-7955d25f97d2"></dynamic-object></div>The two largest US LTL trucking companies — FedEx Freight and Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) — have announced average general rate increases (GRIs) of 5.9% and 4.9%, respectively. ODFL’s rate hike takes effect Nov. 3; FedEx Freight’s on Jan. 5. Saia, the sixth-largest US LTL provider as ranked by revenue by SJ Consulting Group, raised its non-contract rates 5.9% on average effective Oct. 1, highlighting the need to reinvest in its network after spending a projected $600 million to $650 million on expansion in 2025. “As we continue to face rising costs across our industry, this rate increase helps offset a portion of inflationary expenses,” Saia CFO Matthew Batteh said in a statement. However, the GRIs only apply to non-contractual tariff rates, used in a minority of LTL transactions, and the increases carriers are calling for are averages. The GRIs also seem to run counter to reports that carriers are offering lower rates to gain freight in key lanes. LTL carriers are “defending their turf in a sea of uncertainty,” Mike Regan, chief relationship officer at TranzAct Technologies, said during the Journal of Commerce <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/inland-25-low-demand-putting-pricing-pressure-on-us-ltl-carriers-6090269">Inland Distribution Conference</a> in Chicago Sept. 29. “We’re seeing carrier pricing behavior that’s irrational.” It may not be surprising, then, that some LTL trucking companies would advance GRIs with one hand and offer rate cuts with another. “It’s all about building efficiency and density,” Mich Fabriga, vice president of LTL pricing at AFS Logistics, said at Inland ’25. <h3>A 17% increase since 2023 </h3>LTL costs to shippers have risen significantly since Yellow, formerly the third-largest US LTL provider, according to SJ Consulting Group, went out of business in July 2023. The US LTL producer price index (PPI) rose nearly 17% from that month through August 2025. In August, the last month for which PPI data is available from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the LTL PPI rose 1.5% from July and 10.5% year over year. The BLS release of September PPI data was suspended by the US government shutdown. The change in the PPI, which represents all-inclusive “selling prices” paid by shippers, is greater than rate increases or improvements in yield reported by carriers, and it’s not clear why. September data, when available, may show a correction. Northeastern regional LTL provider A. Duie Pyle, a privately owned company, said in an email that heavy reliance on “aggressive pricing strategies” by publicly owned LTL carriers led to “notable price degradation” early in the fourth quarter. But Pyle said it expects “more disciplined pricing” as carriers work to protect “service quality.” Carriers that can maintain high-quality service and flexibility will be best positioned going into 2026, the company said. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="799271a6-275e-4d6d-b89d-76843dd07721"></dynamic-object></div>AFS Logistics believes LTL pricing still has legs — and it’s still much higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. The TD Cowen/AFS LTL Freight Index is projected at 64.8% in the fourth quarter, a 0.2% decline from the third quarter but a 1.1% year-over-year increase. The index hit a four-year peak of 65.1% in the last quarter. “Even as LTL networks pick up smaller shipments and experience some turnover, carriers have kept a keen eye on profitability and network efficiency,” Fabriga said last week, when TD Cowen and AFS Freight released their fourth-quarter forecast. The AFS index indicates rates per pound are up about 65% from January 2018. “Emphasizing yield rather than volume has proven to be a successful formula for carriers in previous down freight cycles and rates are again proving resilient,” Fabriga said. The price degradation noted by Pyle and rate cuts witnessed by TranzAct may yet prove a temporary tactic designed to keep freight where it’s most needed in LTL networks. Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto://bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Whether freight demand is up or down, US less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers are planning to hike pricing in 2026, starting with tariff rates for non-contractual customers. LTL capacity remains lower than before Yellow went out of business in July 2023, and operating costs are rising. But industrial and retail shippers still waiting for a surge in demand for their products are expected to resist significant rate hikes while rethinking transportation choices. That includes moving more LTL freight to less expensive truckload trailers , where possible. The two largest US LTL trucking companies — FedEx Freight and Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) — have announced average general rate increases (GRIs) of 5.9% and 4.9%, respectively. ODFL’s rate hike takes effect Nov. 3; FedEx Freight’s on Jan. 5. Saia, the sixth-largest US LTL provider as ranked by revenue by SJ Consulting Group, raised its non-contract rates 5.9% on average effective Oct. 1, highlighting the need to reinvest in its network after spending a projected $600 million to $650 million on expansion in 2025. “As we continue to face rising costs across our industry, this rate increase helps offset a portion of inflationary expenses,” Saia CFO Matthew Batteh said in a statement. However, the GRIs only apply to non-contractual tariff rates, used in a minority of LTL transactions, and the increases carriers are calling for are averages. The GRIs also seem to run counter to reports that carriers are offering lower rates to gain freight in key lanes. LTL carriers are “defending their turf in a sea of uncertainty,” Mike Regan, chief relationship officer at TranzAct Technologies, said during the Journal of Commerce Inland Distribution Conference in Chicago Sept. 29. “We’re seeing carrier pricing behavior that’s irrational.” It may not be surprising, then, that some LTL trucking companies would advance GRIs with one hand and offer rate cuts with another. “It’s all about building efficiency and density,” Mich Fabriga, vice president of LTL pricing at AFS Logistics, said at Inland ’25. A 17% increase since 2023 LTL costs to shippers have risen significantly since Yellow, formerly the third-largest US LTL provider, according to SJ Consulting Group, went out of business in July 2023. The US LTL producer price index (PPI) rose nearly 17% from that month through August 2025. In August, the last month for which PPI data is available from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the LTL PPI rose 1.5% from July and 10.5% year over year. The BLS release of September PPI data was suspended by the US government shutdown. The change in the PPI, which represents all-inclusive “selling prices” paid by shippers, is greater than rate increases or improvements in yield reported by carriers, and it’s not clear why. September data, when available, may show a correction. Northeastern regional LTL provider A. Duie Pyle, a privately owned company, said in an email that heavy reliance on “aggressive pricing strategies” by publicly owned LTL carriers led to “notable price degradation” early in the fourth quarter. But Pyle said it expects “more disciplined pricing” as carriers work to protect “service quality.” Carriers that can maintain high-quality service and flexibility will be best positioned going into 2026, the company said. AFS Logistics believes LTL pricing still has legs — and it’s still much higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. The TD Cowen/AFS LTL Freight Index is projected at 64.8% in the fourth quarter, a 0.2% decline from the third quarter but a 1.1% year-over-year increase. The index hit a four-year peak of 65.1% in the last quarter. “Even as LTL networks pick up smaller shipments and experience some turnover, carriers have kept a keen eye on profitability and network efficiency,” Fabriga said last week, when TD Cowen and AFS Freight released their fourth-quarter forecast. The AFS index indicates rates per pound are up about 65% from January 2018. “Emphasizing yield rather than volume has proven to be a successful formula for carriers in previous down freight cycles and rates are again proving resilient,” Fabriga said. The price degradation noted by Pyle and rate cuts witnessed by TranzAct may yet prove a temporary tactic designed to keep freight where it’s most needed in LTL networks. Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .

Trucking News

Surface

LTL carriers push general rate hikes despite lackluster US freight demand

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">One possible explanation for the gain is the softer volumes that were artificially suppressed and shifted in August and September of 2024 due to separate labor-related events, but clarity should come over the next week when market players report third-quarter earnings.</div>

One possible explanation for the gain is the softer volumes that were artificially suppressed and shifted in August and September of 2024 due to separate labor-related events, but clarity should come over the next week when market players report third-quarter earnings.

<div class="phx-topic">Domestic intermodal volumes surged 5.8% in September year over year, according to new data from the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA), an unexpected gain considering cautious end-of-quarter signals from major providers after lackluster volumes in July and August. One possible explanation for the September gain is the softer volumes that were artificially suppressed and shifted in August and September of 2024 due to separate labor events involving Canadian railroads and longshoremen on the US East and Gulf coasts. Data provider RailState estimated that Union Pacific Railroad’s (UP’s) domestic intermodal loads in Southern California rose more than 10% from early July to late September, which could explain some of the results in September. Sources told the Journal of Commerce that two large retailers accelerated third-quarter shipments on UP out of Southern California. The late third-quarter surge this year caused domestic intermodal volumes to rise 2.5% for the full quarter, according to IANA; volumes had been up just 0.7% through August. Flows between the Southwest and Midwest specifically, including the Los Angeles-Chicago and Oakland-Chicago lanes, climbed 6.8% last month compared with September 2024, helping to flip third-quarter volumes on the lane to a 1.4% increase after declining 1.1% through August, the IANA data showed. Backhauls on the same routes jumped 4.6% year over year in September, according to IANA, after declining 3.1% combined through August. <h3>Q3 earnings reports coming </h3>J.B. Hunt Transport Services, the largest US domestic intermodal provider, reported that volumes year over year were down 3% in July, 2% in August and flat in September, with a fair amount of West Coast import cargo having not yet moved through the inland supply chain. Other intermodal executives attending the Journal of Commerce’s Inland Distribution Conference late last month described a muted domestic peak season. “It was much heavier on the international side in July, so we all expected this big surge for domestic, and we didn’t see the pull through or the transloads into domestic containers,” Taylor Harrington, director of intermodal for C.H. Robinson Worldwide, said at the conference on Sept. 30. Clarity on the September figures should arrive in the coming days when Knight-Swift Transportation, UP, Hub Group and Schneider National report their third-quarter earnings. Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Domestic intermodal volumes surged 5.8% in September year over year, according to new data from the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA), an unexpected gain considering cautious end-of-quarter signals from major providers after lackluster volumes in July and August. One possible explanation for the September gain is the softer volumes that were artificially suppressed and shifted in August and September of 2024 due to separate labor events involving Canadian railroads and longshoremen on the US East and Gulf coasts. Data provider RailState estimated that Union Pacific Railroad’s (UP’s) domestic intermodal loads in Southern California rose more than 10% from early July to late September, which could explain some of the results in September. Sources told the Journal of Commerce that two large retailers accelerated third-quarter shipments on UP out of Southern California. The late third-quarter surge this year caused domestic intermodal volumes to rise 2.5% for the full quarter, according to IANA; volumes had been up just 0.7% through August. Flows between the Southwest and Midwest specifically, including the Los Angeles-Chicago and Oakland-Chicago lanes, climbed 6.8% last month compared with September 2024, helping to flip third-quarter volumes on the lane to a 1.4% increase after declining 1.1% through August, the IANA data showed. Backhauls on the same routes jumped 4.6% year over year in September, according to IANA, after declining 3.1% combined through August. Q3 earnings reports coming J.B. Hunt Transport Services, the largest US domestic intermodal provider, reported that volumes year over year were down 3% in July, 2% in August and flat in September, with a fair amount of West Coast import cargo having not yet moved through the inland supply chain. Other intermodal executives attending the Journal of Commerce’s Inland Distribution Conference late last month described a muted domestic peak season. “It was much heavier on the international side in July, so we all expected this big surge for domestic, and we didn’t see the pull through or the transloads into domestic containers,” Taylor Harrington, director of intermodal for C.H. Robinson Worldwide, said at the conference on Sept. 30. Clarity on the September figures should arrive in the coming days when Knight-Swift Transportation, UP, Hub Group and Schneider National report their third-quarter earnings. Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Rail News

North-American rail

September domestic intermodal volumes show unexpected boost: IANA

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The financial risks to shippers are rising as the increasing costs of EU carbon tax and fuel intensity regulations are passed on by Mediterranean carriers, a report from maritime technology company OceanScore has found.</div>

The financial risks to shippers are rising as the increasing costs of EU carbon tax and fuel intensity regulations are passed on by Mediterranean carriers, a report from maritime technology company OceanScore has found.

<div class="phx-topic">A new report has found that European cargo owners should be factoring in carbon emissions when securing feeder shipping services as the financial costs of regional decarbonization regulations begin to bite. The report — Scope 3 at Sea: Intra-Mediterranean &amp; Black Sea Edition by maritime technology provider OceanScore — found that shipper exposure to so-called Scope 3 emissions on feeder-dominated routes was clearly influenced by carrier selection and behavior. Scope 3 emissions are indirect emissions generated along a company’s supply chain. “You can’t control if a ship sails full or half-empty, but you can choose carriers who operate predictably and efficiently,” said Thomas Smith, head of cargo solutions at OceanScore. “That’s where real Scope 3 reduction potential lies.” Adding to the financial risk of cargo owners was the FuelEU Maritime and EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) rules that enter full effect in 2026, the report said. The EU ETS for shipping includes 100% of emissions from intra-EU voyages, while coverage for voyages starting or ending in an EU port is 50%. Drawing on more than 45,000 voyages across the intra-Mediterranean and Black Sea corridor, OceanScore found that emissions intensity on the same trade lane could vary by up to 10 times. “The same corridor, the same vessel class, yet emissions can range from 9 to over 80 [grams of carbon dioxide] per tonne-kilometer,” said Smith. “That’s not a distance problem; that’s a consistency problem.” The report found that Mediterranean Shipping Co. and CMA CGM dominated the intra-Mediterranean and Black Sea corridor by voyage count, while carriers such as Maersk and Turkey’s Arkas Denizcilik achieved stronger emissions efficiency. High-intensity operators such as X-Press Feeders and Boluda Lines displayed greater volatility, which inflated Scope 3 exposure when used at scale. <h3>Volatile operators increase pass-through costs </h3>OceanScore’s analysis mapped the top feeder operators across the corridor using two metrics — average carbon intensity and voyage consistency. Carriers with narrower, stable distributions such as MSC, Maersk and Arkas Denizcilik offered predictable Scope 3 outcomes, while more volatile operators exposed shippers to reporting risk and inflated cost pass-throughs. The report found that ship utilization was a key factor driving both efficiency and predictability of emissions. Most voyages on the East Mediterranean and Black Sea routes operated at 37% to 67% utilization, with the higher load factors corresponding to significantly lower carbon intensity per metric ton. CMA CGM maintained the highest proportion of heavily loaded voyages (52% to 72%), while MSC’s wider spread led to more variable utilization patterns. Maersk displayed the most balanced distribution with steady clustering in the 57% to 67% range. The data also revealed that emissions of a vessel can quadruple from a single port delay, particularly on shorter routes around the Mediterranean. “Short-sea operations are far less predictable than long-haul,” said Eduardo Ramos, senior data analyst at OceanScore. “On these routes, every delay or underutilized sailing compounds emissions.” Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

A new report has found that European cargo owners should be factoring in carbon emissions when securing feeder shipping services as the financial costs of regional decarbonization regulations begin to bite. The report — Scope 3 at Sea: Intra-Mediterranean & Black Sea Edition by maritime technology provider OceanScore — found that shipper exposure to so-called Scope 3 emissions on feeder-dominated routes was clearly influenced by carrier selection and behavior. Scope 3 emissions are indirect emissions generated along a company’s supply chain. “You can’t control if a ship sails full or half-empty, but you can choose carriers who operate predictably and efficiently,” said Thomas Smith, head of cargo solutions at OceanScore. “That’s where real Scope 3 reduction potential lies.” Adding to the financial risk of cargo owners was the FuelEU Maritime and EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) rules that enter full effect in 2026, the report said. The EU ETS for shipping includes 100% of emissions from intra-EU voyages, while coverage for voyages starting or ending in an EU port is 50%. Drawing on more than 45,000 voyages across the intra-Mediterranean and Black Sea corridor, OceanScore found that emissions intensity on the same trade lane could vary by up to 10 times. “The same corridor, the same vessel class, yet emissions can range from 9 to over 80 [grams of carbon dioxide] per tonne-kilometer,” said Smith. “That’s not a distance problem; that’s a consistency problem.” The report found that Mediterranean Shipping Co. and CMA CGM dominated the intra-Mediterranean and Black Sea corridor by voyage count, while carriers such as Maersk and Turkey’s Arkas Denizcilik achieved stronger emissions efficiency. High-intensity operators such as X-Press Feeders and Boluda Lines displayed greater volatility, which inflated Scope 3 exposure when used at scale. Volatile operators increase pass-through costs OceanScore’s analysis mapped the top feeder operators across the corridor using two metrics — average carbon intensity and voyage consistency. Carriers with narrower, stable distributions such as MSC, Maersk and Arkas Denizcilik offered predictable Scope 3 outcomes, while more volatile operators exposed shippers to reporting risk and inflated cost pass-throughs. The report found that ship utilization was a key factor driving both efficiency and predictability of emissions. Most voyages on the East Mediterranean and Black Sea routes operated at 37% to 67% utilization, with the higher load factors corresponding to significantly lower carbon intensity per metric ton. CMA CGM maintained the highest proportion of heavily loaded voyages (52% to 72%), while MSC’s wider spread led to more variable utilization patterns. Maersk displayed the most balanced distribution with steady clustering in the 57% to 67% range. The data also revealed that emissions of a vessel can quadruple from a single port delay, particularly on shorter routes around the Mediterranean. “Short-sea operations are far less predictable than long-haul,” said Eduardo Ramos, senior data analyst at OceanScore. “On these routes, every delay or underutilized sailing compounds emissions.” Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Container Shipping News

Intra-Europe emissions exposure affected by feeder services selection: report

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Amid tariffs of up to 130%, US laden imports from China for the six months between April and September fell to levels not seen since 2013.</div>

Amid tariffs of up to 130%, US laden imports from China for the six months between April and September fell to levels not seen since 2013.

<div class="phx-topic">President Donald Trump’s tariff onslaught has, arguably, forever shifted US import flows away from China after a six-month rollercoaster of ever-changing amounts and deadlines. But US tariffs — while denting shipments from China — aren’t yet showing signs of hurting overall global container volumes. “The rest of the world trucks along just nicely,” said Lars Jensen, a maritime analyst and Journal of Commerce contributor. “It’s a little bit volatile. It’s a bit up and down, but basically throughout the year, you’ve seen global growth in container volumes around 6%, which is twice what you expect given global development. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6101629_0.1.jpg"></img></div>“So the rest of the world is doing just fine, more or less unperturbed by the US trade war,” Jensen added. “It’s the US that’s suffering from this, not everybody else.” US laden imports between April, when sweeping tariffs were imposed on all trade partners, and September are virtually flat compared with a year earlier, according to PIERS, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. US laden exports in the five months ending in August, the most recent data available, are flat as well. Global container volumes, including empties, rose 4.1% in that same period, according to data from Container Trade Statistics. But the extent to which US tariffs on China imports — currently up to 130% — have upended the trans-Pacific is clear: Imports from China for April through September were at levels not seen since 2013. US imports from China were down 15% from a year earlier, equating to 875,000 fewer TEUs. Looking at it another way, one-third of laden, ocean-going imports that came into the US during the six-month period originated from China. Last year, four out of 10 laden containers entering US seaports came from China. Some of those volumes from China were lost due to Canadian importers diverting goods away from US ports in favor of domestic ports to avoid paying tariffs. Other shipments, as tracked by PIERS, originated from China and were illegally declared differently. <h3>Beneficiaries of China tariffs </h3>Vietnam, facing a US tariff rate of 20%, has been the biggest benefactor from tariffs on China. US laden imports from Vietnam jumped nearly 26% in the six-month period and volumes accounted for 16.8% of all inbound traffic into the United States. India, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and Cambodia all gained from the higher US tariffs on China. And while each still accounted for less than 1% of total US laden imports, Columbia, Ecuador, and Guatemala were leaned on more by US importers. Notably, the US tariffs on imports from the European Union haven’t stopped import growth, with laden volumes expanding 4.9% between April and September. Despite high US tariffs on its exports, China’s factory production hasn’t slowed yet, with activity in September rising at its fastest pace since March, according to the RatingDog China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, which is compiled by S&amp;P Global. Chinese exporters have found buyers for their wares, contributing to <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/growing-box-backlogs-at-europes-strike-hit-hubs-could-take-weeks-to-clear-6098397">port congestion in Europe</a> and increasingly feeding factories in Mexico. With record profits from the pandemic and a scale-up of ship deliveries, container lines are following the growth, deploying tonnage and investing in marine terminals that strengthen so-called secondary trades. Evergreen Line, for example, in its five-year plan released last month, said it would focus on expanding service to Latin America and the Middle East. The carrier plans to increase the number of vessels deployed on the Asia-Latin America trade and deploy 12,000-TEU ships on the Asia-West Coast of South America trades. Evergreen also plans to add capacity between Europe and Mexico, and from Asia to the Caribbean. Still, container lines, importantly, aren’t abandoning the US market, even if it comes at a higher cost than other markets thanks to elevated labor costs and the inability to impose terminal handling charges on cargo owners and consignees. “If you look at the United States, the market is not going anywhere. This is an extremely strategic market for our group, and we will continue to invest here,” Adeline Chouraqui, CEO and president at CMA CGM Americas, said Oct. 16 at the Virginia Maritime Association’s International Trade Forum. CMA CGM in March <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/cma-cgm-to-invest-20-billion-in-us-shipping-ports-and-logistics-5957748">committed to investing $20 billion in the US over the next five years</a>. “It’s a continuation of what we’ve always done, but changes in flows do bring opportunities for investment,” she said. Contact Mark Szakonyi at <a href="mailto:mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com">mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

President Donald Trump’s tariff onslaught has, arguably, forever shifted US import flows away from China after a six-month rollercoaster of ever-changing amounts and deadlines. But US tariffs — while denting shipments from China — aren’t yet showing signs of hurting overall global container volumes. “The rest of the world trucks along just nicely,” said Lars Jensen, a maritime analyst and Journal of Commerce contributor. “It’s a little bit volatile. It’s a bit up and down, but basically throughout the year, you’ve seen global growth in container volumes around 6%, which is twice what you expect given global development. “So the rest of the world is doing just fine, more or less unperturbed by the US trade war,” Jensen added. “It’s the US that’s suffering from this, not everybody else.” US laden imports between April, when sweeping tariffs were imposed on all trade partners, and September are virtually flat compared with a year earlier, according to PIERS, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. US laden exports in the five months ending in August, the most recent data available, are flat as well. Global container volumes, including empties, rose 4.1% in that same period, according to data from Container Trade Statistics. But the extent to which US tariffs on China imports — currently up to 130% — have upended the trans-Pacific is clear: Imports from China for April through September were at levels not seen since 2013. US imports from China were down 15% from a year earlier, equating to 875,000 fewer TEUs. Looking at it another way, one-third of laden, ocean-going imports that came into the US during the six-month period originated from China. Last year, four out of 10 laden containers entering US seaports came from China. Some of those volumes from China were lost due to Canadian importers diverting goods away from US ports in favor of domestic ports to avoid paying tariffs. Other shipments, as tracked by PIERS, originated from China and were illegally declared differently. Beneficiaries of China tariffs Vietnam, facing a US tariff rate of 20%, has been the biggest benefactor from tariffs on China. US laden imports from Vietnam jumped nearly 26% in the six-month period and volumes accounted for 16.8% of all inbound traffic into the United States. India, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and Cambodia all gained from the higher US tariffs on China. And while each still accounted for less than 1% of total US laden imports, Columbia, Ecuador, and Guatemala were leaned on more by US importers. Notably, the US tariffs on imports from the European Union haven’t stopped import growth, with laden volumes expanding 4.9% between April and September. Despite high US tariffs on its exports, China’s factory production hasn’t slowed yet, with activity in September rising at its fastest pace since March, according to the RatingDog China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, which is compiled by S&P Global. Chinese exporters have found buyers for their wares, contributing to port congestion in Europe and increasingly feeding factories in Mexico. With record profits from the pandemic and a scale-up of ship deliveries, container lines are following the growth, deploying tonnage and investing in marine terminals that strengthen so-called secondary trades. Evergreen Line, for example, in its five-year plan released last month, said it would focus on expanding service to Latin America and the Middle East. The carrier plans to increase the number of vessels deployed on the Asia-Latin America trade and deploy 12,000-TEU ships on the Asia-West Coast of South America trades. Evergreen also plans to add capacity between Europe and Mexico, and from Asia to the Caribbean. Still, container lines, importantly, aren’t abandoning the US market, even if it comes at a higher cost than other markets thanks to elevated labor costs and the inability to impose terminal handling charges on cargo owners and consignees. “If you look at the United States, the market is not going anywhere. This is an extremely strategic market for our group, and we will continue to invest here,” Adeline Chouraqui, CEO and president at CMA CGM Americas, said Oct. 16 at the Virginia Maritime Association’s International Trade Forum. CMA CGM in March committed to investing $20 billion in the US over the next five years . “It’s a continuation of what we’ve always done, but changes in flows do bring opportunities for investment,” she said. Contact Mark Szakonyi at  mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com .

Trans-Pacific

US tariffs dent China import volumes, but not global container growth

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The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

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Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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