<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">New service offerings announced recently by CMA CGM demonstrate that while alliances serve the carriers well in terms of cost efficiencies, the benefits may not extend much further.</div>

New service offerings announced recently by CMA CGM demonstrate that while alliances serve the carriers well in terms of cost efficiencies, the benefits may not extend much further.

3641601_FI.png

<div>The past six months have clearly shown the value alliances provide to their member carriers in terms of managing capacity in the face of extreme demand volatility. It would be easy to look at length at how the carriers benefit from this in terms of higher freight rates right now, but in a complex industry there are always multiple simultaneous developments and a one-eyed focus on a single element leads to a risk of being blindsided by another.If we look slightly further ahead, beyond the pandemic impact, we are still in a market where the networks on the main deep-sea...

The past six months have clearly shown the value alliances provide to their member carriers in terms of managing capacity in the face of extreme demand volatility. It would be easy to look at length at how the carriers benefit from this in terms of higher freight rates right now, but in a complex industry there are always multiple simultaneous developments and a one-eyed focus on a single element leads to a risk of being blindsided by another. If we look slightly further ahead, beyond the pandemic impact, we are still in a market where the networks on the main deep-sea trades are designed by the three major alliances. This also means that the port-to-port shipment between major locations is a pure commodity. It is difficult to upsell a commodity, and hence carriers will be working on other parameters to differentiate their service offerings beyond the pure ocean part. The problem with an alliance is that it restricts the ability to differentiate on some service elements beyond the ocean simply because the ocean link is not always under a carrier’s own control. It does not prevent a carrier from developing improved solutions, but it limits their ability to do so. This is best illustrated with an example from a bit over a week ago. CMA CGM announced an expansion of their service offering, and this serves as a good example of both how carriers are approaching the development of improved solutions, but also how the alliance structure in these cases can be seen as a hindrance. Their new offerings, termed SEAPRIORITY get and SEAPRIORITY reach , promise priority unloading and terminal fast track to allow a quick turn time at the destination port. Furthermore, it has fast inland connections attached to it. In principle, a good approach to provide faster delivery times. Whether this is attractive or not is basically up to the customers to judge based on their needs, but it is yet another indication that carriers are attempting to differentiate — or improve — services on the land-side connections. Expanded services require strong operational control However, it also exemplifies how carriers are challenged in such cases by the alliance structures. This new service is only offered on three trans-Pacific services and only into the Fenix terminal in Los Angeles. These three services are operated by CMA CGM and not their ocean alliance partners, and CMA CGM also retained a 10 percent ownership stake in the Fenix terminal following its sale in 2017. Operationally, handling such priority promises does require a strong operational control. This would imply that CMA CGM does not believe their partners can (or will) execute on the priority operational promises on services not under CMA CGM control. And hence it is a good example that alliances serve the carriers well in terms of cost efficiencies, but becomes a challenge in relation to expanded service offerings. However, for the shippers this might also lead to a situation where they might want to broaden their portfolio of carriers in the future in order to avail themselves of non-commoditized services offerings beyond the ocean part, and in doing so it would not be sufficient to be “exposed” to only a single carrier in each alliance. Contact Lars Jensen at Lars.Jensen@SeaIntelligence-consulting.com .

Container lines

Alliance structure hampers expanding container line offerings

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Cosco’s transaction is a charter deal with New York-listed, Greece-based Costamare Inc. for 16 container ships — a dozen 9,300-TEU vessels and four 3,100-TEU ships. </div>

Cosco’s transaction is a charter deal with New York-listed, Greece-based Costamare Inc. for 16 container ships — a dozen 9,300-TEU vessels and four 3,100-TEU ships.

Feature image

<div class="phx-topic">Chinese container ship operators Cosco Shipping and China United Lines (CU Lines) are expanding their fleets with separate deals for 20 new vessels to be delivered between 2027 and 2030. Cosco’s transaction is a charter deal with New York-listed, Greece-based Costamare Inc. for 16 container ships — a dozen 9,300-TEU vessels and four 3,100-TEU ships. The deal adds to the 30 ships worth almost $5 billion <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/cosco-inks-almost-27-billion-in-deals-for-18-newbuild-container-ships-6152035">that Cosco</a> and its <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/oocl-orders-its-first-lng-fueled-ships-with-2-billion-deal-for-12-vessels-6212244">Hong Kong subsidiary OOCL</a> have ordered since the beginning of this year. The 9,200-TEU ships will be delivered to Cosco between the third quarter of 2028 and the second quarter of 2030 when they will be deployed on 15-year charters. They will likely sail on Asia–US West Coast or Asia–Latin America services based on the current deployment of similarly sized vessels. Cosco has made the Latin America trade one of its key growth sectors. Construction of the ships falls under a $1.3 billion order Costamare placed with Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co. (DSIC), part of state-owned shipyard giant China CSSC Holdings. The smaller ships will be chartered to Cosco for eight years upon delivery between the fourth quarter of 2027 and fourth quarter of 2028. They will likely operate on intra-Asia trades including longer-haul routes to India. No details were provided about the shipyard contracted to build the smaller ships. Neither Costamare nor Cosco said whether the ships will be dual-fuel or conventionally powered, although Cosco and OOCL have favored dual-fuel LNG vessels in their deals this year. Separately, Shanghai-headquartered carrier CU Lines said it has ordered four 6,400-TEU container ships from China’s CSSC Huangpu Wenchong Shipbuilding at a total cost of $300 million. Two of the conventionally fueled ships will be delivered in 2029 and two in 2030. No details of their likely deployment have been released, although given that the ships will have 1,150-TEU reefer plugs, they would be suited to the perishables trade on the carrier’s Asia–India and Middle East services. Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>. </div>

Chinese container ship operators Cosco Shipping and China United Lines (CU Lines) are expanding their fleets with separate deals for 20 new vessels to be delivered between 2027 and 2030. Cosco’s transaction is a charter deal with New York-listed, Greece-based Costamare Inc. for 16 container ships — a dozen 9,300-TEU vessels and four 3,100-TEU ships. The deal adds to the 30 ships worth almost $5 billion that Cosco and its Hong Kong subsidiary OOCL have ordered since the beginning of this year. The 9,200-TEU ships will be delivered to Cosco between the third quarter of 2028 and the second quarter of 2030 when they will be deployed on 15-year charters. They will likely sail on Asia–US West Coast or Asia–Latin America services based on the current deployment of similarly sized vessels. Cosco has made the Latin America trade one of its key growth sectors. Construction of the ships falls under a $1.3 billion order Costamare placed with Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co. (DSIC), part of state-owned shipyard giant China CSSC Holdings. The smaller ships will be chartered to Cosco for eight years upon delivery between the fourth quarter of 2027 and fourth quarter of 2028. They will likely operate on intra-Asia trades including longer-haul routes to India. No details were provided about the shipyard contracted to build the smaller ships. Neither Costamare nor Cosco said whether the ships will be dual-fuel or conventionally powered, although Cosco and OOCL have favored dual-fuel LNG vessels in their deals this year. Separately, Shanghai-headquartered carrier CU Lines said it has ordered four 6,400-TEU container ships from China’s CSSC Huangpu Wenchong Shipbuilding at a total cost of $300 million. Two of the conventionally fueled ships will be delivered in 2029 and two in 2030. No details of their likely deployment have been released, although given that the ships will have 1,150-TEU reefer plugs, they would be suited to the perishables trade on the carrier’s Asia–India and Middle East services. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

Container Shipping News

Maritime

Cosco Shipping, CU Lines expand fleets with 20 new container ships

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Global cargo capacity has largely recovered to pre-shock levels, while international routes have yet to be seriously affected by jet fuel shortages, according to Xeneta.</div>

Global cargo capacity has largely recovered to pre-shock levels, while international routes have yet to be seriously affected by jet fuel shortages, according to Xeneta.

<div class="phx-topic">Air cargo markets are adjusting to the disruption caused by the war in the Middle East as capacity returns and supply-demand fundamentals are driven by seasonality and early May holidays rather than conflict-related factors, analysts say. Flower exports from countries such as Colombia and Ecuador shipped to the US and Canada ahead of Mother’s Day on May 10 saw tonnage from Central and South America rising 19% in the last week of April compared to the previous week, according to the latest weekly figures from air freight analyst WorldACD Market Data. Asia-Pacific tonnage in the last week of April rose 3% sequentially, boosted by shipments ahead of May 1 Labor Day holidays in China that extend across several days. “The worst may be behind us,” Niall van de Wouw, chief air freight officer at rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, said of the war-related disruption as rate increases showed signs of easing, even on corridors most impacted by the Middle East conflict. “This is all logical because the spike in air freight rates was driven by a supply issue from the start,” van de Wouw said in an April market update this week. “Now capacity is coming back, (and) rates will come down, but not as quickly as they went up. “The big question is what will be left in terms of demand after all the inflationary pressure, all the uncertainty, and all the tremendous increases in fuel and production costs ease?,” he added. “What will it mean for Q3 and Q4 because everything that has happened in the last few weeks was against a backdrop of a not-too-rosy outlook for 2026?” For now, the Middle East war continues to drive pricing. Global air cargo spot rates surged 30% year over year in April to $3.34 per kilogram, the highest level since October 2022, according to Xeneta. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="1f8878b6-9e77-46fc-bdf5-c1982da8007e"></dynamic-object></div>Data from the last week of April by WorldACD showed significant year over year rate increases on several trade lanes. Routes out of the Middle East and South Asia saw average rates up 65% compared to the same week last year at $4.65 per kilogram. Rates out of North America rose 60% to $2.65/kg, and jumped 41% out of Asia-Pacific at $5.11/kg. Meanwhile, rates were up 40% out of Africa at $2.86/kg and up 32% out of Europe at $2.87/kg. Freightos pegged China to Europe rates at $5.30/kg as of May 3, up 4.5% on the week and 52% higher year over year. While WorldACD also noted that rates were rising at a slower pace than in the initial weeks after the Feb. 28 start of the war in the Middle East, “the closure again of the Strait of Hormuz, further increases in fuel prices, and no end in sight to the confrontation mean we may expect continuing high air cargo spot rates and further increases in the coming weeks linked to the costs and availability of jet fuel.” <h3>Carriers can’t absorb fuel cost burden </h3>Jet fuel prices surged through March and April, hitting their highest point in 23 years, with reduced petroleum shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and refinery constraints tightening global aviation fuel availability, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). “All eyes are on fuel supply and price, which are expected to test the industry’s resilience in the coming months,” Willie Walsh, IATA’s director-general, said in the association’s April market update. Van de Wouw said the margins between crude oil and refined jet fuel have now exceeded the peaks recorded during the pandemic, adding a cost burden that carriers cannot easily absorb or ignore. Still, the stabilizing of air freight markets as capacity returns will be welcomed by shippers that have been postponing Q3 and Q4 tenders with freight forwarders while waiting for the market to normalize, van de Wouw said. “Global cargo capacity has largely recovered to pre-shock levels, and the jet fuel shortage, though reportedly spreading, has yet to grip long-haul intercontinental routes at scale,” he said. “If those conditions hold, spot rates should ease in the weeks ahead and deliver some reprieve for shippers who have grown accustomed to unwelcome surprises.” Also cautiously optimistic was IATA’s Walsh. “The underlying demand trends, at this point, appear strong, and the recent World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund revisions to trade and GDP projections continue to see growth in 2026,” he said. “Importantly, air cargo networks are providing the flexibility needed to support global supply chains as they adjust to geopolitical, tariff and operational strains,” Walsh added. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Air cargo markets are adjusting to the disruption caused by the war in the Middle East as capacity returns and supply-demand fundamentals are driven by seasonality and early May holidays rather than conflict-related factors, analysts say. Flower exports from countries such as Colombia and Ecuador shipped to the US and Canada ahead of Mother’s Day on May 10 saw tonnage from Central and South America rising 19% in the last week of April compared to the previous week, according to the latest weekly figures from air freight analyst WorldACD Market Data. Asia-Pacific tonnage in the last week of April rose 3% sequentially, boosted by shipments ahead of May 1 Labor Day holidays in China that extend across several days. “The worst may be behind us,” Niall van de Wouw, chief air freight officer at rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, said of the war-related disruption as rate increases showed signs of easing, even on corridors most impacted by the Middle East conflict. “This is all logical because the spike in air freight rates was driven by a supply issue from the start,” van de Wouw said in an April market update this week. “Now capacity is coming back, (and) rates will come down, but not as quickly as they went up. “The big question is what will be left in terms of demand after all the inflationary pressure, all the uncertainty, and all the tremendous increases in fuel and production costs ease?,” he added. “What will it mean for Q3 and Q4 because everything that has happened in the last few weeks was against a backdrop of a not-too-rosy outlook for 2026?” For now, the Middle East war continues to drive pricing. Global air cargo spot rates surged 30% year over year in April to $3.34 per kilogram, the highest level since October 2022, according to Xeneta. Data from the last week of April by WorldACD showed significant year over year rate increases on several trade lanes. Routes out of the Middle East and South Asia saw average rates up 65% compared to the same week last year at $4.65 per kilogram. Rates out of North America rose 60% to $2.65/kg, and jumped 41% out of Asia-Pacific at $5.11/kg. Meanwhile, rates were up 40% out of Africa at $2.86/kg and up 32% out of Europe at $2.87/kg. Freightos pegged China to Europe rates at $5.30/kg as of May 3, up 4.5% on the week and 52% higher year over year. While WorldACD also noted that rates were rising at a slower pace than in the initial weeks after the Feb. 28 start of the war in the Middle East, “the closure again of the Strait of Hormuz, further increases in fuel prices, and no end in sight to the confrontation mean we may expect continuing high air cargo spot rates and further increases in the coming weeks linked to the costs and availability of jet fuel.” Carriers can’t absorb fuel cost burden Jet fuel prices surged through March and April, hitting their highest point in 23 years, with reduced petroleum shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and refinery constraints tightening global aviation fuel availability, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). “All eyes are on fuel supply and price, which are expected to test the industry’s resilience in the coming months,” Willie Walsh, IATA’s director-general, said in the association’s April market update. Van de Wouw said the margins between crude oil and refined jet fuel have now exceeded the peaks recorded during the pandemic, adding a cost burden that carriers cannot easily absorb or ignore. Still, the stabilizing of air freight markets as capacity returns will be welcomed by shippers that have been postponing Q3 and Q4 tenders with freight forwarders while waiting for the market to normalize, van de Wouw said. “Global cargo capacity has largely recovered to pre-shock levels, and the jet fuel shortage, though reportedly spreading, has yet to grip long-haul intercontinental routes at scale,” he said. “If those conditions hold, spot rates should ease in the weeks ahead and deliver some reprieve for shippers who have grown accustomed to unwelcome surprises.” Also cautiously optimistic was IATA’s Walsh. “The underlying demand trends, at this point, appear strong, and the recent World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund revisions to trade and GDP projections continue to see growth in 2026,” he said. “Importantly, air cargo networks are providing the flexibility needed to support global supply chains as they adjust to geopolitical, tariff and operational strains,” Walsh added. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Air Cargo Carriers News

Air Cargo

Air freight supply-demand factors adjust to war-disrupted market

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Georgia Ports Authority will fund and initiate its own study for dredging and widening its ship channel and harbor as the US Army Corps of Engineers may lack the funds in 2027. </div>

The Georgia Ports Authority will fund and initiate its own study for dredging and widening its ship channel and harbor as the US Army Corps of Engineers may lack the funds in 2027.

<div class="phx-topic">The Port of Savannah wants to prepare for handling ultra-large container ships by funding its own study on deepening and widening its harbor, sidestepping regular federal funding in hopes of speedier approval for the project. The Georgia Ports Authority (GPA) said in a statement it submitted a letter of intent to the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to formally begin a study on deepening and widening Savannah Harbor, which is currently at a federally authorized depth of 49 feet along its ship channel while its inner harbor is at a 47-foot depth. The inner harbor and channel span widths between 500 feet and 600 feet. The GPA is doing the study under a section of the 1986 Water Resources Development Act that allows non-federal agencies to fully fund their own studies without the USACE, which typically pays half of the funding of any study. The Savannah study still has to be reviewed by the USACE before the project receives approval. There was no timeline given for when the study would be completed; the USACE has 180 days for review once the study has been received. The GPA said it was undertaking the study “as a way to accelerate dredging timelines and save taxpayer funds.” The study will determine the appropriate depth for the Savannah Harbor and the entrance to its river “to better serve the largest ships currently serving Savannah, and to prepare for even larger, more efficient vessels expected to serve the US East Coast in the future,” the GPA said, adding that it’s also considering passing lanes for two-way ship traffic. <h3>Problems will be ‘exacerbated’ without harbor deepening </h3>The Savannah Harbor study is authorized under USACE’s 2026 investigations, with a total estimated cost of $3 million. The 2026 USACE budget has set aside $500,000 for its share of the project this year. But due to the Trump administration’s cuts to the agency’s budget, the USACE only expects to receive $80,000 for the study in 2027. The USACE said in its 2026 investigations workplan that the deepening was needed because the last deepening completed in March 2022 was designed for 8,200-TEU vessels calling Savannah, “whereas vessels of 14,000 to 16,000 TEU regularly call on the port, and even larger vessels, 20,000 TEU or more, exist in the global fleet and could call in the future.” “Light loading and tidal delays are expected to increase as throughput increases,” the USACE said. “Existing vessels experience problems associated with turning capabilities and overall maneuverability in certain reaches of the inner harbor, which will be exacerbated as vessel size continues to increase.” While 2026 and 2027 could be flat-to-down years for Savannah’s volumes, the GPA released a forecast at the Georgia International Trade Conference last week indicating it expects cargo volumes to reach 8.8 million TEUs in 2036, marking roughly 4% average annual growth from 2025. Savannah is preparing for the growth with new terminal infrastructure, including expanding container handling at <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/gpa-names-next-ceo-as-savannah-readies-for-new-growth-phase-6167449">its under-utilized Ocean Terminal</a> as well as building an entirely new facility, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/more-carrier-controlled-terminal-operations-could-be-coming-to-the-east-coast-6207482">the Savannah Container Terminal</a>. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The Port of Savannah wants to prepare for handling ultra-large container ships by funding its own study on deepening and widening its harbor, sidestepping regular federal funding in hopes of speedier approval for the project. The Georgia Ports Authority (GPA) said in a statement it submitted a letter of intent to the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to formally begin a study on deepening and widening Savannah Harbor, which is currently at a federally authorized depth of 49 feet along its ship channel while its inner harbor is at a 47-foot depth. The inner harbor and channel span widths between 500 feet and 600 feet. The GPA is doing the study under a section of the 1986 Water Resources Development Act that allows non-federal agencies to fully fund their own studies without the USACE, which typically pays half of the funding of any study. The Savannah study still has to be reviewed by the USACE before the project receives approval. There was no timeline given for when the study would be completed; the USACE has 180 days for review once the study has been received. The GPA said it was undertaking the study “as a way to accelerate dredging timelines and save taxpayer funds.” The study will determine the appropriate depth for the Savannah Harbor and the entrance to its river “to better serve the largest ships currently serving Savannah, and to prepare for even larger, more efficient vessels expected to serve the US East Coast in the future,” the GPA said, adding that it’s also considering passing lanes for two-way ship traffic. Problems will be ‘exacerbated’ without harbor deepening The Savannah Harbor study is authorized under USACE’s 2026 investigations, with a total estimated cost of $3 million. The 2026 USACE budget has set aside $500,000 for its share of the project this year. But due to the Trump administration’s cuts to the agency’s budget, the USACE only expects to receive $80,000 for the study in 2027. The USACE said in its 2026 investigations workplan that the deepening was needed because the last deepening completed in March 2022 was designed for 8,200-TEU vessels calling Savannah, “whereas vessels of 14,000 to 16,000 TEU regularly call on the port, and even larger vessels, 20,000 TEU or more, exist in the global fleet and could call in the future.” “Light loading and tidal delays are expected to increase as throughput increases,” the USACE said. “Existing vessels experience problems associated with turning capabilities and overall maneuverability in certain reaches of the inner harbor, which will be exacerbated as vessel size continues to increase.” While 2026 and 2027 could be flat-to-down years for Savannah’s volumes, the GPA released a forecast at the Georgia International Trade Conference last week indicating it expects cargo volumes to reach 8.8 million TEUs in 2036, marking roughly 4% average annual growth from 2025. Savannah is preparing for the growth with new terminal infrastructure, including expanding container handling at its under-utilized Ocean Terminal as well as building an entirely new facility, the Savannah Container Terminal . Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Port News

Port infrastructure

North American ports

Savannah to fund its own study on readying port for big ships

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">US shippers of oversized cargo are being buoyed by positivity and strong demand in the Americas, but are struggling with capacity challenges and the uncertain geopolitical backdrop. </div>

US shippers of oversized cargo are being buoyed by positivity and strong demand in the Americas, but are struggling with capacity challenges and the uncertain geopolitical backdrop.

<div class="phx-topic">Caught between the volatile Middle East and the domestic promise of the Americas, sentiment among breakbulk and project cargo shippers has shifted from "how do we survive?" to "how do we scale?" In conversations at the Journal of Commerce’s recent Breakbulk and Project Cargo Conference 2026 in New Orleans, a cautious, localized, and almost defiant optimism prevailed among shippers of out-of-gauge cargoes. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6214892_0.1.jpg"></img></div>With the shifting geopolitical landscape, the Americas — specifically Venezuela and Guyana — are poised to play a dominant role in pivoting from Middle Eastern energy dependence. "Countries within the Americas probably will play a more important role in the upcoming years, and oil and gas is one of the key aspects," one shipper speaking to the Journal of Commerce noted. That regional focus is driving a "bullish" outlook for many shippers, despite a backdrop of global instability. Between chip plant expansions in Phoenix and a growing rail network with Mexico, the shipper said the sheer volume of activity is staggering. However, a pinch in transportation capacity could scupper the project refocus before it finds its feet, another shipper said. The source expressed “deep concerns over rail capacity and the availability of specialized equipment,” with the energy sector already struggling. Companies are now being forced into long-term barge and rail car leases — a move once considered unnecessary — while the heavy-haul market is facing a similar squeeze, forcing companies to award contracts two years in advance rather than the traditional six months. <h3>Shift in workforce demographics </h3>Another pervasive theme on shippers’ minds at the Breakbulk26 was the scarcity of "institutional knowledge." One shipper said the industry is facing a "silver tsunami" of retirements, and that the gap between veteran experience and the incoming Gen Z workforce is widening. Shippers criticized the "cubicle culture" where employees understand their specific niche but lack the holistic "chief cook and bottle washer" mentality of previous generations. "There's a real disconnect between that guy sitting in a cubicle and what a dock looks like," another shipper said, emphasizing that hands-on experience is becoming the industry's most valuable currency. While technology and AI were noted as tools for efficiency, including digital twins and autonomous trucks, shippers speaking to the Journal of Commerce agreed that logistics remains a relationship business. The COVID-19 pandemic served as a brutal but effective marketing campaign for the sector. As one industry veteran said: "Every single person now knows what supply chain is... [COVID] created for all of us a huge opportunity to be able to say what we do is important." Another source urged the industry to showcase that project cargo isn’t just a job, but an international career of choice. “The cargo is coming, the projects are funded, and the Americas are ready, but can we train the next generation fast enough to catch the wave?,” the source wondered. Contact Carly Fields at <a href="mailto:carly.fields@spglobal.com">carly.fields@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Caught between the volatile Middle East and the domestic promise of the Americas, sentiment among breakbulk and project cargo shippers has shifted from "how do we survive?" to "how do we scale?" In conversations at the Journal of Commerce’s recent Breakbulk and Project Cargo Conference 2026 in New Orleans, a cautious, localized, and almost defiant optimism prevailed among shippers of out-of-gauge cargoes. With the shifting geopolitical landscape, the Americas — specifically Venezuela and Guyana — are poised to play a dominant role in pivoting from Middle Eastern energy dependence. "Countries within the Americas probably will play a more important role in the upcoming years, and oil and gas is one of the key aspects," one shipper speaking to the Journal of Commerce noted. That regional focus is driving a "bullish" outlook for many shippers, despite a backdrop of global instability. Between chip plant expansions in Phoenix and a growing rail network with Mexico, the shipper said the sheer volume of activity is staggering. However, a pinch in transportation capacity could scupper the project refocus before it finds its feet, another shipper said. The source expressed “deep concerns over rail capacity and the availability of specialized equipment,” with the energy sector already struggling. Companies are now being forced into long-term barge and rail car leases — a move once considered unnecessary — while the heavy-haul market is facing a similar squeeze, forcing companies to award contracts two years in advance rather than the traditional six months. Shift in workforce demographics Another pervasive theme on shippers’ minds at the Breakbulk26 was the scarcity of "institutional knowledge." One shipper said the industry is facing a "silver tsunami" of retirements, and that the gap between veteran experience and the incoming Gen Z workforce is widening. Shippers criticized the "cubicle culture" where employees understand their specific niche but lack the holistic "chief cook and bottle washer" mentality of previous generations. "There's a real disconnect between that guy sitting in a cubicle and what a dock looks like," another shipper said, emphasizing that hands-on experience is becoming the industry's most valuable currency. While technology and AI were noted as tools for efficiency, including digital twins and autonomous trucks, shippers speaking to the Journal of Commerce agreed that logistics remains a relationship business. The COVID-19 pandemic served as a brutal but effective marketing campaign for the sector. As one industry veteran said: "Every single person now knows what supply chain is... [COVID] created for all of us a huge opportunity to be able to say what we do is important." Another source urged the industry to showcase that project cargo isn’t just a job, but an international career of choice. “The cargo is coming, the projects are funded, and the Americas are ready, but can we train the next generation fast enough to catch the wave?,” the source wondered. Contact Carly Fields at carly.fields@spglobal.com .

Project cargo

Resilience, relationships still trump technology in project cargo

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">A long-term decline in US forest product production is being accelerated by the increasing use of composite materials that require less wood and trade policy complications abroad. </div>

A long-term decline in US forest product production is being accelerated by the increasing use of composite materials that require less wood and trade policy complications abroad.

<div class="phx-topic">(The following story appears in the Top 100 Importers and Exporters issue of the Journal of Commerce magazine published on May 4, 2026.) Stagnant home sales, increased demand for composite materials, and trade policy uncertainty are extending a multiyear decline in US paper and forest product exports, according to manufacturers and forwarders in the sector. Industrial production of wood products decreased 2.9% year over year in February 2026, while capacity utilization dropped 4.2% over the same period, according to the US Federal Reserve. Capacity utilization has plunged 30% since the base year of 2017 as the sector struggles to survive. With housing supply exceeding demand in certain US regions and alternative materials taking share from traditional wood used in flooring, furniture and home construction, several producers of paper and forest products reduced production, shuttered sawmills or sold their businesses last year. As a result, outbound containerized shipments of those products plummeted 12% year over year in 2025, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Export volumes have dropped at a compound annual rate of 7.3% in the last five years, with total shipments down nearly one-third from 2020 levels. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="bfd65c6e-9bdb-43b6-8c61-23fd06e7f420"></dynamic-object></div>Canfor, a large paper and forest product manufacturer, has closed nine sawmills in the last three years, including two last year. “[We] continue to be impacted by weak global pulp and paper markets with ongoing trade disputes and broader economic uncertainty contributing to elevated inventory levels and weak pricing through much of 2025 and continuing into 2026,” CEO Stephen MacKie said during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call March 6. Lumber producer Interfor shut down two sawmills in the US last year amid what it described as “historically weak” lumber prices. “Repair and remodel, largely influenced by home purchases, is expected to remain relatively flat,” Bart Bender, Interfor’s senior vice president of sales, said during a Feb. 13 earnings call. “Turning to supply, we’re seeing the impact of production curtailments across the industry. Some are formally announced, many are not.” Like its competitors, West Fraser closed two sawmills last year and reported operating losses in the fourth quarter for North American paper, pulp and forest products. “Since 2022, we have removed over 1.1 billion board feet of capacity through mill closures and permanent shift reductions, representing a 16% decrease in the company's lumber operating capacity,” CEO Sean McLaren told analysts during West Fraser’s Feb. 13 earnings call. “We’ve also reduced the number of shifts or hours of operations at various lumber mills as a means to manage cost.” <h3>Popular alternatives </h3>Although demand for flooring and furniture has not disappeared, a shift toward composite materials that require less wood is accelerating the decline in forest product production and, in turn, exports. “Composites have been eating the lumber industry’s lunch for the last half-decade,” Stephen Zambo, CEO of the AGL Group, a freight forwarder specializing in paper and forest products, told the Journal of Commerce. “The products are no longer fully made out of lumber; it’s maybe 20% of the item now instead of 100%.” Engineered materials, plastics, and other substitutes are replacing traditional hardwood components in the US and abroad. Zambo said the shift is evident at major industry trade shows, where exhibit booths displaying hardwood have been displaced by engineered and synthetic products. “Hardwood is turning into a luxury product,” he said. “A lot of companies are either getting bought or just shutting down because the margins aren’t worth the capital.” Increasing regulatory requirements in major markets abroad are adding further pressure on exports, according to the American Forest &amp; Paper Association (AF&amp;PA). For example, the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), enforcement of which is scheduled to begin at the end of 2026, “continues to represent a technical barrier to trade for US forest products into the EU, with many compliance uncertainties unaddressed,” AF&amp;PA said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce. “These evolving trade policy initiatives, alongside freight and vessel availability, and port and inland logistics constraints, shape export flows and planning decisions,” the group added. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="28c8a7e4-fba3-43c3-855f-8d3e2953746e"></dynamic-object></div>Zambo said the imposition of 125% reciprocal tariffs on US lumber by China, formerly the largest export destination by a wide margin, didn’t put too big of a dent in overall volumes, but it has shifted a large portion of those shipments to Vietnam. Indeed, Vietnam became the largest consumer of US paper and forest last year, accounting for 15.8% of exports, up from 6.2% in 2024, while mainland China’s share tumbled to 15.6% from 29%, according to PIERS. “What we’re seeing now is logs going over to Vietnam, being sawn into lumber, and then sent into other markets like China,” Zambo said. “China is consuming the same amount. It’s just not coming directly from the US anymore.” Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

(The following story appears in the Top 100 Importers and Exporters issue of the Journal of Commerce magazine published on May 4, 2026.) Stagnant home sales, increased demand for composite materials, and trade policy uncertainty are extending a multiyear decline in US paper and forest product exports, according to manufacturers and forwarders in the sector. Industrial production of wood products decreased 2.9% year over year in February 2026, while capacity utilization dropped 4.2% over the same period, according to the US Federal Reserve. Capacity utilization has plunged 30% since the base year of 2017 as the sector struggles to survive. With housing supply exceeding demand in certain US regions and alternative materials taking share from traditional wood used in flooring, furniture and home construction, several producers of paper and forest products reduced production, shuttered sawmills or sold their businesses last year. As a result, outbound containerized shipments of those products plummeted 12% year over year in 2025, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Export volumes have dropped at a compound annual rate of 7.3% in the last five years, with total shipments down nearly one-third from 2020 levels. Canfor, a large paper and forest product manufacturer, has closed nine sawmills in the last three years, including two last year. “[We] continue to be impacted by weak global pulp and paper markets with ongoing trade disputes and broader economic uncertainty contributing to elevated inventory levels and weak pricing through much of 2025 and continuing into 2026,” CEO Stephen MacKie said during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call March 6. Lumber producer Interfor shut down two sawmills in the US last year amid what it described as “historically weak” lumber prices. “Repair and remodel, largely influenced by home purchases, is expected to remain relatively flat,” Bart Bender, Interfor’s senior vice president of sales, said during a Feb. 13 earnings call. “Turning to supply, we’re seeing the impact of production curtailments across the industry. Some are formally announced, many are not.” Like its competitors, West Fraser closed two sawmills last year and reported operating losses in the fourth quarter for North American paper, pulp and forest products. “Since 2022, we have removed over 1.1 billion board feet of capacity through mill closures and permanent shift reductions, representing a 16% decrease in the company's lumber operating capacity,” CEO Sean McLaren told analysts during West Fraser’s Feb. 13 earnings call. “We’ve also reduced the number of shifts or hours of operations at various lumber mills as a means to manage cost.” Popular alternatives Although demand for flooring and furniture has not disappeared, a shift toward composite materials that require less wood is accelerating the decline in forest product production and, in turn, exports. “Composites have been eating the lumber industry’s lunch for the last half-decade,” Stephen Zambo, CEO of the AGL Group, a freight forwarder specializing in paper and forest products, told the Journal of Commerce. “The products are no longer fully made out of lumber; it’s maybe 20% of the item now instead of 100%.” Engineered materials, plastics, and other substitutes are replacing traditional hardwood components in the US and abroad. Zambo said the shift is evident at major industry trade shows, where exhibit booths displaying hardwood have been displaced by engineered and synthetic products. “Hardwood is turning into a luxury product,” he said. “A lot of companies are either getting bought or just shutting down because the margins aren’t worth the capital.” Increasing regulatory requirements in major markets abroad are adding further pressure on exports, according to the American Forest & Paper Association (AF&PA). For example, the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), enforcement of which is scheduled to begin at the end of 2026, “continues to represent a technical barrier to trade for US forest products into the EU, with many compliance uncertainties unaddressed,” AF&PA said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce. “These evolving trade policy initiatives, alongside freight and vessel availability, and port and inland logistics constraints, shape export flows and planning decisions,” the group added. Zambo said the imposition of 125% reciprocal tariffs on US lumber by China, formerly the largest export destination by a wide margin, didn’t put too big of a dent in overall volumes, but it has shifted a large portion of those shipments to Vietnam. Indeed, Vietnam became the largest consumer of US paper and forest last year, accounting for 15.8% of exports, up from 6.2% in 2024, while mainland China’s share tumbled to 15.6% from 29%, according to PIERS. “What we’re seeing now is logs going over to Vietnam, being sawn into lumber, and then sent into other markets like China,” Zambo said. “China is consuming the same amount. It’s just not coming directly from the US anymore.” Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

Trans-Pacific

Supply chain

Structural demand shifts pulverizing US forest exports

Use code GTT26W at checkout and save $900 on first year of an annual Gold subscription!

Upgrade Subscription - Gold Trials

Become a Gold Subscriber and Save!

Arm your team with the most trusted information portal for the international container shipping industry.

Group Subscriptions - Wide Box

Get into a group subscription today

Use code SSFTW30 at checkout to save 30% on a Silver or Silver Plus annual subscription! 

Subscribe Now - FT to S/SP - Wide Box

SPRING SALE!

Use code GW595 and upgrade to Gold for just $595! Valid for first year of subscription.

Upgrade Subscription - S/SP to Gold - Wide Box

SAVE $900 ON A GOLD SUBSCRIPTION

Use code SSLW30 at checkout and save 30% on an annual Silver or Silver Plus subscription!

Subscribe Now - Anonymous to S/SP - Wide Box

Access Journal of Commerce content for 30 days

Free Trial - Wide Box

START A FREE TRIAL TODAY

Use code SSGFTW895 at checkout to save $600 on first year of a Gold subscription!

Subscribe Now - FT to Gold - Wide Box

Use code SSLW895 at checkout and save $600 on first year of a Gold subscription!

Subscribe Now - Anonymous to Gold - Wide Box

SPRING SALE: Use code SSFTW30 to save 30% on first year of a Silver or Silver Plus annual subscription!


Subscribe Now - FT to S/SP - Offer Box

Subscribe and Save

GET INTO A GROUP SUBSCRIPTION: Arm your team with unlimited Journal of Commerce content

Group Subscriptions - Offer Box

Group Subscriptions

SPRING SALE: Use code SSLW30 at checkout and save 30% on an annual Silver or Silver Plus subscription!

Subscribe Now - Anonymous to S/SP - Offer Box

SUBSCRIBE TODAY

UPGRADE TO GOLD AND SAVE: Use code GTT26W at checkout and save $900 on first year of a Gold subscription!

Upgrade Subscription

SPRING SALE: Use code SSLW895 at checkout and save $600 on an annual Gold subscription!

Subscribe Now - Anonymous to Gold - Offer Box

SAVE $900 ON A GOLD SUBSCRIPTION: Use code GW595 and upgrade to Gold for just $595! Valid on first year of subscription.

Upgrade Subscription - S/SP to Gold - Offer Box

SPRING SALE: Use code SSGFTW895 and save $600 on the first year of a Gold subscription!

Subscribe Now - FT to Gold - Offer Box

SUBSCRIBE AND SAVE

Monthly publication providing an editorial deep dive into global supply chain news

Journal of Commerce Magazine - Rectangle Box

Journal of Commerce Magazine

A premium access index of savings using domestic intermodal vs. OTR 

ISI Report - Rectangle Box

Intermodal Savings Index

An in-depth analysis of transport trends in the multipurpose and heavy-lift fleet segment

Breakbulk Report - Rectangle Box

Breakbulk Quarterly

An extensive dashboard of charts organized by trade lane, mode, and topic

Gateway - Rectangle Box

Gateway

Customers scoring their intermodal partners to identify the best service providers

Intermodal Service Scorecard - Rectangle Box

Intermodal Service Scorecard

A premium access outlook critical to shippers and transportation providers

QI Report - Rectangle Box

Quarterly Intelligence

The latest container shipping news and analysis of ocean container shipping, logistics, supply chains, technology solutions and end-to-end connectivity. Coverage includes the movement of containerized cargo handled by marine terminals and container ports, depots, container lines, drayage, consignees, importers and shippers, forwarders, non-vessel operating common carriers (NVOs) and off-dock warehousing providers. The Journal of Commerce's container shipping news includes news from the trans-Pacific, Asia–Europe, North America–Caribbean, Central and South America trades, and intra-Asia trades.

Trans-Atlantic

Forwarding

Asia-Europe

Container shipping news and analysis of ocean container shipping, logistics, supply chains, technology and end-to-end connectivity.

Container Shipping News | Journal of Commerce

The Journal of Commerce is the industry’s source for maritime news and analysis about ocean container shipping, logistics, supply chains, global shipping ports, shipping technology solutions and end-to-end connectivity. Coverage tracks the movement of containerized cargo — from origin to destination — handled by marine terminals in the US and abroad, depots, container ports, container lines, drayage, consignees and shippers, forwarders, non-vessel operating common carriers (NVOs) and off-dock warehousing providers, as well as pricing, capacity, volume and reliability on the trans-Pacific, Asia–Europe, North America–Caribbean, Central and South American and intra-Asia trades.

Discover comprehensive trucking news and trends with Journal of Commerce - from trucking LTL to regulation and trucking supply and demand.

Breakbulk News shipping | Journal of Commerce

Breakbulk News

Stay informed on port news worldwide with Journal of Commerce. From decarbonization to labor updates, get insights on global developments.

Port News | Journal of Commerce

News and analysis of ocean containerized cargo movement, logistics, supply chains, technology, and end-to-end connectivity. Maritime news and analysis of containerized ocean cargo movement, breakbulk and roll-on and roll-off shipping from origin to destination.

Latest News

More News & Analysis

Cosco Shipping, CU Lines expand fleets with 20 new container ships

Air freight supply-demand factors adjust to war-disrupted market

Savannah to fund its own study on readying port for big ships