<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Current conditions in the trans-Pacific trade, with strong demand and severe capacity shortages leading to hyper-charged freight rates, are temporary, but the question is: how temporary?</div>

Current conditions in the trans-Pacific trade, with strong demand and severe capacity shortages leading to hyper-charged freight rates, are temporary, but the question is: how temporary?

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<div>With freight rates in the eastbound trans-Pacific spiraling well above levels anyone in the market has ever experienced — with spot rates and premiums to guarantee loading combined regularly reported as going north of $15,000 — and with the holiday shipping season approaching, importers are asking a key question: Will these hyper-charged freight rates continue into the fall, or even into next year, and if so, to what extent should these costs be incorporated into product pricing to preserve margins?Predicting container freight rates has never been a science, and the challenge is even greater against a backdrop of unprecedented economic...

With freight rates in the eastbound trans-Pacific spiraling well above levels anyone in the market has ever experienced — with spot rates and premiums to guarantee loading combined regularly reported as going north of $15,000 — and with the holiday shipping season approaching, importers are asking a key question: Will these hyper-charged freight rates continue into the fall, or even into next year, and if so, to what extent should these costs be incorporated into product pricing to preserve margins? Predicting container freight rates has never been a science, and the challenge is even greater against a backdrop of unprecedented economic conditions that have upended traditional shipping patterns, as well as continuing system-wide disruption across the global containerized supply chain. In other words, the answer will come not from looking at any single barometer, but rather from taking in the totality of the environment and drawing some big-picture conclusions. Among those conclusions would be that irrespective of timing, current conditions are temporary. The only question is, how temporary? As Nariman Behravesh, senior economic advisor at IHS Markit, put it, “I and my colleagues believe that this is a short-term problem. But exactly when it ends is a different issue.” No one predicted the COVID-19 pandemic, let alone the adrenaline it injected into consumer spending on home improvement and other goods. As the pandemic is brought under control in the US and other developed nations, analysts say spending patterns will revert to a more normal breakdown between goods and services. If that is indeed expected to happen, the second and equally important question when it comes to freight rates is when normal fluidity will be restored to the circulation of ships, containers, and other transportation assets such as truck chassis and intermodal well cars. On the demand side, while economists believe more normal patterns of spending will re-emerge in the second half, which would moderate volumes, shipments will still be elevated as retailers and manufacturers rebuild depleted inventories to feed a resurgent US economy that is forecast to see GDP growth of 7.4 percent in 2021, the fastest since 1984, according to IHS Markit, parent company of JOC.com. “The best way to summarize where we are in the US from a top-down, macro perspective is that demand for goods is pretty much at peak levels, and it’s likely to come down probably quite a bit in the second half of this year,” although that trend is not yet visible in economic data, Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies, said in a Jefferies webinar released on June 9. “We’ve obviously had this massive decoupling between goods and services spending in the US, and I think we’re starting to normalize, and that is going to be the big story in the second half of the year.” That aligns with the current thinking of the National Retail Federation (NRF), which said in its latest Global Port Tracker report there is “no shortage of demand from consumers” currently but is forecasting steadily slowing import growth in the second half of the year. According to the June 7 Global Port Tracker forecast, imports will grow 33 percent year over year in June, 14 percent in July, 7.5 percent in August, and 1.7 percent in September. The report forecasts import volumes to slip 6.5 percent year over year in October, after reaching a then-record high in October 2020. Inventory replenishment will be a factor leading to greater volumes, Markowska said. “Retail inventories are still at absolute record-low levels even as demand comes down, so there is still a lot of upside for production both domestically and globally and therefore for imports as well.” If, in fact, import growth eases in the second half, the question will be how quickly ships and containers can be restored to “normal” circulatory flow. Having those assets still out of position is a major drag on overall capacity, and thus a major factor keeping rate levels at historically elevated levels. The short answer is that it will happen, but it is going to take a few months. As of June 7, there were still 18 container ships at anchor waiting for berths in the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Carriers say the blank sailings they have instituted in the trans-Pacific in recent weeks have been tied almost exclusively to ships not being able to get back to Asia fast enough because of congestion at North American ports. The case is the same with containers, which in the aggregate still are not being unloaded and repositioned to origin points fast enough, creating a scarcity of boxes that has played a key role in driving rates to stratospheric levels. As US workers return to distribution center jobs, vaccination rates increase, and social-distancing restrictions ease, productivity throughout the system will improve, containers will be turned faster, and system-wide capacity will be restored. But again, it will take a few months once volumes begin to ease for this to unfold. It is a process that is still in its very early stages. As of early June, ports continue to “face a lack of manpower both because of COVID-19 illnesses and the tight labor market,” the NRF said. “Many people remain hesitant about returning to work, affecting ports, rail, trucking and distribution centers.” Contact Peter Tirschwell at peter.tirschwell@ihsmarkit.com and follow him on Twitter: @petertirschwell .

Container lines

Asia-US shipping chaos has window to ease in second half

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">It would be foolish to extrapolate the road ahead based on one new service, but the fact that MSC brings so many things to bear and can move so quickly implies that others will have to be at the top of their game to compete, writes Jeremy Masters. </div>

It would be foolish to extrapolate the road ahead based on one new service, but the fact that MSC brings so many things to bear and can move so quickly implies that others will have to be at the top of their game to compete, writes Jeremy Masters.

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<div class="phx-topic">The playing field is not even when pursuing new route opportunities in north-south trades. The ever-increasing scale of the biggest players simply means that they have more assets to deploy. Raids on the NOO (non-operating owner) second-hand fleet by Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC) and CMA CGM in the 2000- to 8000-TEU ship size category and the consequent squeeze on ships available in the charter market (causing high rates on what is available) mean that attractive propositions in developing trades end up on the back burner for carriers requiring charter tonnage. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6102919_0.1.jpg"></img></div>This, of course, could change quite rapidly if big ship oversupply results in cascading and the return of smaller tonnage to NOOs. Right now, however, the only option for many carriers is to move ships off a weak trade and redeploy them to a promising one. This is not an easy decision, but waiting for the charter market to change is not a solution as it will change for everybody at the same time. Meantime, opportunities come and go. Developing trades is a particular challenge as volume growth is volatile, imbalances can be big, and these trades are easier to tip into oversupply if a sizeable capacity injection is made. <h3>US to West and South Africa </h3>An interesting case study of punching power and nimbleness is the recent move by MSC to introduce a new stand-alone service connecting the US with West and South Africa. With Maersk’s withdrawal from the joint service with MSC connecting the US East Coast and Freeport (and thus the US Gulf) with South Africa, it’s not a surprise that MSC would step up to be the only direct operator in the trade. There may be hiccups at the political level, but trade patterns tend to be more robust than the short-term programs of any government. MSC — never slow to identify an opportunity — has grabbed Maersk’s withdrawal as a gift, not only to dominate one trade but also take pole position in another by adding West Africa in the rotation in both directions. Thus, MSC ties in critical mass and alleviates any concern about short-term trade flows between the US and South Africa. Looking at Container Trade Statistics (CTS) volumes by trade sector, it’s actually quite surprising that Maersk and MSC did not prioritize a USEC and US Gulf link with West Africa over the link with South Africa or look earlier at doing both. MSC has recognized that without direct competition, the diversion to serve West Africa in both directions is achievable while still being dominant in both trades. The CTS stats show that neither trade has experienced gangbuster growth in the last five years, but if you are the only operator with a direct service, you can be reasonably assured of grabbing a high market share and setting the tone for highly contributive rates. What is clear is that a USEC to South Africa service was on fragile ground even before trade tensions threatened erosion. The addition of West Africa, however, gives the service a hyper boost. If getting a dominant position in two direct trades on one service was not enough, there is another new layer of opportunity for MSC by adding and connecting regions. <h3>Owned hubs and double-dipping delight </h3>By putting West Africa in the rotation, MSC has added intra-Africa capability. As the ships will be light coming out of South Africa, the strong trade to West Africa is an excellent chance to use dead space and provide another stream of revenue to the service. The fact that MSC can use hubs in this process that it partially or completely owns — Freeport, San Pedro and Lome — and use accompanying feeder systems to tap multiple local markets means that its widened products and costs are under its control. Meanwhile, spot rates being offered suggest that MSC is going to have a substantive premium — particularly in the US to South Africa lane in both directions and with West Africa providing so much extra critical mass. This deployment is not just a case of MSC having more ship muscle to flex than others. It’s also about network planning dexterity and having a portfolio of well-positioned hubs that enable local and connecting cargoes to be maximized without congestion. It would be foolish to extrapolate the road ahead from one new service, but the fact that MSC brings so many things to bear and can move so quickly implies that others will have to be at the top of their game to compete. Jeremy Masters is managing director of Shipping Masters. Contact him at <a href="mailto:jeremy@shippingmastershk.com">jeremy@shippingmastershk.com</a>. </div>

The playing field is not even when pursuing new route opportunities in north-south trades. The ever-increasing scale of the biggest players simply means that they have more assets to deploy. Raids on the NOO (non-operating owner) second-hand fleet by Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC) and CMA CGM in the 2000- to 8000-TEU ship size category and the consequent squeeze on ships available in the charter market (causing high rates on what is available) mean that attractive propositions in developing trades end up on the back burner for carriers requiring charter tonnage. This, of course, could change quite rapidly if big ship oversupply results in cascading and the return of smaller tonnage to NOOs. Right now, however, the only option for many carriers is to move ships off a weak trade and redeploy them to a promising one. This is not an easy decision, but waiting for the charter market to change is not a solution as it will change for everybody at the same time. Meantime, opportunities come and go. Developing trades is a particular challenge as volume growth is volatile, imbalances can be big, and these trades are easier to tip into oversupply if a sizeable capacity injection is made. US to West and South Africa An interesting case study of punching power and nimbleness is the recent move by MSC to introduce a new stand-alone service connecting the US with West and South Africa. With Maersk’s withdrawal from the joint service with MSC connecting the US East Coast and Freeport (and thus the US Gulf) with South Africa, it’s not a surprise that MSC would step up to be the only direct operator in the trade. There may be hiccups at the political level, but trade patterns tend to be more robust than the short-term programs of any government. MSC — never slow to identify an opportunity — has grabbed Maersk’s withdrawal as a gift, not only to dominate one trade but also take pole position in another by adding West Africa in the rotation in both directions. Thus, MSC ties in critical mass and alleviates any concern about short-term trade flows between the US and South Africa. Looking at Container Trade Statistics (CTS) volumes by trade sector, it’s actually quite surprising that Maersk and MSC did not prioritize a USEC and US Gulf link with West Africa over the link with South Africa or look earlier at doing both. MSC has recognized that without direct competition, the diversion to serve West Africa in both directions is achievable while still being dominant in both trades. The CTS stats show that neither trade has experienced gangbuster growth in the last five years, but if you are the only operator with a direct service, you can be reasonably assured of grabbing a high market share and setting the tone for highly contributive rates. What is clear is that a USEC to South Africa service was on fragile ground even before trade tensions threatened erosion. The addition of West Africa, however, gives the service a hyper boost. If getting a dominant position in two direct trades on one service was not enough, there is another new layer of opportunity for MSC by adding and connecting regions. Owned hubs and double-dipping delight By putting West Africa in the rotation, MSC has added intra-Africa capability. As the ships will be light coming out of South Africa, the strong trade to West Africa is an excellent chance to use dead space and provide another stream of revenue to the service. The fact that MSC can use hubs in this process that it partially or completely owns — Freeport, San Pedro and Lome — and use accompanying feeder systems to tap multiple local markets means that its widened products and costs are under its control. Meanwhile, spot rates being offered suggest that MSC is going to have a substantive premium — particularly in the US to South Africa lane in both directions and with West Africa providing so much extra critical mass. This deployment is not just a case of MSC having more ship muscle to flex than others. It’s also about network planning dexterity and having a portfolio of well-positioned hubs that enable local and connecting cargoes to be maximized without congestion. It would be foolish to extrapolate the road ahead from one new service, but the fact that MSC brings so many things to bear and can move so quickly implies that others will have to be at the top of their game to compete. Jeremy Masters is managing director of Shipping Masters. Contact him at jeremy@shippingmastershk.com .

Trans-Atlantic

Container Shipping News

Maritime

MSC flexing its north-south muscle, particularly on US-Africa trade

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project has been a test case of sorts for the Port of Virginia’s heavy-lift capabilities for future cargo opportunities. </div>

The Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project has been a test case of sorts for the Port of Virginia’s heavy-lift capabilities for future cargo opportunities.

<div class="phx-topic">As offshore wind development slows in the United States, the Port of Virginia is experiencing a continued surge of breakbulk cargo tonnage, largely driven by the ongoing build-out of the largest offshore wind farm in the US mid-Atlantic. Virginia Port Authority (VPA) spokesperson Joe Harris told the Journal of Commerce that because of the project, the port is now positioned to take on heavy-lift cargo well into the future — with or without offshore wind. “We expect that positive tonnage trend to continue for the foreseeable future,” Harris said. Breakbulk cargo volumes at the Port of Virginia jumped 157% year over year, to 57,909 tons in September, according to VPA figures. Breakbulk activity also trended upward during the first nine months of the year, rising 16% year over year, to 417,878 tons. “That’s primarily attributable to offshore wind,” Harris said, referring to the 2.6-GW Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) project that Virginia utility Dominion Energy is developing about 27 miles off the coast of Virginia Beach. Construction of the CVOW project is about 60% finished and remains on schedule for full completion in late 2026, with the wind farm on track to start delivering to the grid in the first quarter of 2026, Dominion spokesperson Jeremy Slayton told the Journal of Commerce. All 176 monopile foundations have been installed for the project to date, along with 59 of 176 transition pieces — the “yellow pieces” that connect the foundations to the turbine towers, Slayton said. <h3>Sizing up bigger cargo </h3>The CVOW project has been a test case of sorts for the Port of Virginia’s heavy-lift capabilities for future cargo opportunities. “The experience we’re gaining in moving these components helps us market ourselves as a true heavy-lift port,” Harris said. Harris cited a 4,000-ton offshore wind component that moved through the port in September as one of the larger pieces the facility has been able to accommodate. “We moved it very safely and efficiently,” he said. “And it helps to be able to say that we can handle things up to this size and bigger, and here’s our point of proof.” In March, the Port of Virginia completed over $220 million in upgrades at the 287-acre Portsmouth Marine Terminal, the staging site for the CVOW project’s components and one of VPA’s two multipurpose terminals in Norfolk Harbor. Part of the port’s $1.4 billion strategic infrastructure plan is focused in part on supporting larger cargo volumes; the improvements included reconstructing the berth, reinforcing the cargo yard’s pavement and reworking the vessel mooring configuration. Looking to future heavy-lift opportunities, Harris said the Port of Virginia has been in discussions with domestic shipbuilding companies about using the Newport News Marine Terminal — the port’s main breakbulk and roll-on/roll-off (ro/ro) facility — as a laydown area for ship components. “Given the experience that we’ve gotten over the last two years with the offshore wind project, it helps us greatly handle and attract new business,” Harris said. <h3>‘New class’ of heavy-lift vessels </h3>Along with enhancing its ability to move heavy project cargo like offshore wind components from ship to shore, the Port of Virginia is executing a $450 million dredging project that will deepen Norfolk Harbor to 55 feet and help the port accommodate the kinds of larger vessels needed to transport cargoes of that size. Once that work is complete, the port will have one of the deepest, widest channels on the US East Coast. “As we deepen our channel, we’re talking about a new class of heavy-lift vessels that could possibly use Virginia,” Harris said, adding that the dredging project is on track for completion by early 2026. One high-profile heavy-lift vessel that recently arrived in Virginia for the offshore wind project is the Charybdis, the first US-flag-compliant wind turbine installation vessel. Capable of lifting up to 2,200 tons, the 472-foot heavy-lift vessel has been under construction at Brownsville, Texas, since 2020 and arrived at the Portsmouth Marine Terminal Sept. 17. Dominion Energy commissioned the Charybdis to ferry wind components from the port to the CVOW installation site in compliance with the Jones Act, the federal law requiring that goods shipped between US ports are transported on ships that are US-built, owned and operated. “We’re working through final punch list items in accordance with our installation vessel’s certificate of inspection,” Slayton said. Once the CVOW project is complete, the Charybdis will be available to support other types of heavy-lift projects. Contact Autumn Cafiero Giusti at <a href="mailto:autumn@autumngiusti.com">autumn@autumngiusti.com</a>. </div>

As offshore wind development slows in the United States, the Port of Virginia is experiencing a continued surge of breakbulk cargo tonnage, largely driven by the ongoing build-out of the largest offshore wind farm in the US mid-Atlantic. Virginia Port Authority (VPA) spokesperson Joe Harris told the Journal of Commerce that because of the project, the port is now positioned to take on heavy-lift cargo well into the future — with or without offshore wind. “We expect that positive tonnage trend to continue for the foreseeable future,” Harris said. Breakbulk cargo volumes at the Port of Virginia jumped 157% year over year, to 57,909 tons in September, according to VPA figures. Breakbulk activity also trended upward during the first nine months of the year, rising 16% year over year, to 417,878 tons. “That’s primarily attributable to offshore wind,” Harris said, referring to the 2.6-GW Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) project that Virginia utility Dominion Energy is developing about 27 miles off the coast of Virginia Beach. Construction of the CVOW project is about 60% finished and remains on schedule for full completion in late 2026, with the wind farm on track to start delivering to the grid in the first quarter of 2026, Dominion spokesperson Jeremy Slayton told the Journal of Commerce. All 176 monopile foundations have been installed for the project to date, along with 59 of 176 transition pieces — the “yellow pieces” that connect the foundations to the turbine towers, Slayton said. Sizing up bigger cargo The CVOW project has been a test case of sorts for the Port of Virginia’s heavy-lift capabilities for future cargo opportunities. “The experience we’re gaining in moving these components helps us market ourselves as a true heavy-lift port,” Harris said. Harris cited a 4,000-ton offshore wind component that moved through the port in September as one of the larger pieces the facility has been able to accommodate. “We moved it very safely and efficiently,” he said. “And it helps to be able to say that we can handle things up to this size and bigger, and here’s our point of proof.” In March, the Port of Virginia completed over $220 million in upgrades at the 287-acre Portsmouth Marine Terminal, the staging site for the CVOW project’s components and one of VPA’s two multipurpose terminals in Norfolk Harbor. Part of the port’s $1.4 billion strategic infrastructure plan is focused in part on supporting larger cargo volumes; the improvements included reconstructing the berth, reinforcing the cargo yard’s pavement and reworking the vessel mooring configuration. Looking to future heavy-lift opportunities, Harris said the Port of Virginia has been in discussions with domestic shipbuilding companies about using the Newport News Marine Terminal — the port’s main breakbulk and roll-on/roll-off (ro/ro) facility — as a laydown area for ship components. “Given the experience that we’ve gotten over the last two years with the offshore wind project, it helps us greatly handle and attract new business,” Harris said. ‘New class’ of heavy-lift vessels Along with enhancing its ability to move heavy project cargo like offshore wind components from ship to shore, the Port of Virginia is executing a $450 million dredging project that will deepen Norfolk Harbor to 55 feet and help the port accommodate the kinds of larger vessels needed to transport cargoes of that size. Once that work is complete, the port will have one of the deepest, widest channels on the US East Coast. “As we deepen our channel, we’re talking about a new class of heavy-lift vessels that could possibly use Virginia,” Harris said, adding that the dredging project is on track for completion by early 2026. One high-profile heavy-lift vessel that recently arrived in Virginia for the offshore wind project is the Charybdis, the first US-flag-compliant wind turbine installation vessel. Capable of lifting up to 2,200 tons, the 472-foot heavy-lift vessel has been under construction at Brownsville, Texas, since 2020 and arrived at the Portsmouth Marine Terminal Sept. 17. Dominion Energy commissioned the Charybdis to ferry wind components from the port to the CVOW installation site in compliance with the Jones Act, the federal law requiring that goods shipped between US ports are transported on ships that are US-built, owned and operated. “We’re working through final punch list items in accordance with our installation vessel’s certificate of inspection,” Slayton said. Once the CVOW project is complete, the Charybdis will be available to support other types of heavy-lift projects. Contact Autumn Cafiero Giusti at autumn@autumngiusti.com .

Port News

Energy projects

Heavy-haul transport

Breakbulk News

Wind cargo helps Virginia port lay groundwork for more heavy-lift business

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Markets such as high tech and perishables are showing strong growth and, combined with shifting trade patterns in Asia, will help offset the lack of a traditional air peak season this quarter, forwarders say. </div>

Markets such as high tech and perishables are showing strong growth and, combined with shifting trade patterns in Asia, will help offset the lack of a traditional air peak season this quarter, forwarders say.

<div class="phx-topic">Forwarders are not expecting a peak air cargo season on the trans-Pacific this year, with demand weakened by the volatile impact of US tariffs and Washington’s elimination of duty-free imports on low-value goods. But no peak season does not mean the air freight business is in the doldrums. Certain verticals show strong growth, and demand is supported by shifting trade patterns in Asia. “Our market-share gains are continuing in the fourth quarter, especially in hard cargo, where we have been very successful,” Stefan Paul, CEO of Kuehne + Nagel, told analysts during <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/rival-kuehne-nagel-circles-dsv-customers-as-ocean-tender-season-nears-6102316">a third-quarter results briefing</a> Thursday. “What is clear is there is no peak season to be expected, but there are two main verticals where we see nice growth — perishables and the hyperscaler-semiconductor market — which is going to continue,” Paul said, adding that hyperscalers accounted for half the 7% year-over-year growth in third-quarter air freight volume. Semiconductors and hyperscalers are components used in AI-related infrastructure, with <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/growing-appetite-for-ai-technology-feeds-into-air-cargo-demand-6088168">tech giants pouring huge investments</a> into developing data centers, particularly in the US and China. “We have now 14 (air) charter operations out of Hanoi in Vietnam, purely serving hyperscalers and semiconductors and high-tech customers, which are operated by [Asia subsidiary] Apex, and we jointly leverage the capacity toward the US,” Paul said. Martin Habisreitinger, COO for air freight at Hellmann Worldwide Logistics, was not expecting a peak season on the trans-Pacific, but also highlighted ongoing Asia high-tech demand from the US. “We see a shift this year in air cargo from China going more into Southeast Asia,” Habisreitinger told the Journal of Commerce. “Much of what is being reduced in China is now coming out of Vietnam, out of Thailand, India and some other markets. The volume and demand is still there, but much of it is coming out of other origins to China.” <h3>No historical pickup in demand </h3>Habisreitinger said there has been a definite change in market dynamics this year, as there was no historical pickup in demand before the Oct. 1 start of Golden Week. “Normally, before Golden Week, there’s a lot of cargo coming into the market because factories shut for 10 days in China, but this year we did not see that,” he said. Another factor that normally influences air freight demand is high ocean rates, which signify tight capacity and push cargo owners into the air, but that is currently a nonfactor as ocean rates have fallen significantly on the trans-Pacific in the past few weeks. “We have seen ocean freight rates declining on the trans-Pacific, so we don’t expect huge demand for air freight this peak season,” Habisreitinger said. DSV CEO Jens Lund expects global air cargo volume growth to remain below GDP growth in the fourth quarter. While DSV’s air freight volume of 579,000 metric tons in the third quarter was up 64%, the growth was flat without the 232,000-metric-ton contribution from DB Schenker, according to DSV’s third-quarter earnings. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Forwarders are not expecting a peak air cargo season on the trans-Pacific this year, with demand weakened by the volatile impact of US tariffs and Washington’s elimination of duty-free imports on low-value goods. But no peak season does not mean the air freight business is in the doldrums. Certain verticals show strong growth, and demand is supported by shifting trade patterns in Asia. “Our market-share gains are continuing in the fourth quarter, especially in hard cargo, where we have been very successful,” Stefan Paul, CEO of Kuehne + Nagel, told analysts during a third-quarter results briefing Thursday. “What is clear is there is no peak season to be expected, but there are two main verticals where we see nice growth — perishables and the hyperscaler-semiconductor market — which is going to continue,” Paul said, adding that hyperscalers accounted for half the 7% year-over-year growth in third-quarter air freight volume. Semiconductors and hyperscalers are components used in AI-related infrastructure, with tech giants pouring huge investments into developing data centers, particularly in the US and China. “We have now 14 (air) charter operations out of Hanoi in Vietnam, purely serving hyperscalers and semiconductors and high-tech customers, which are operated by [Asia subsidiary] Apex, and we jointly leverage the capacity toward the US,” Paul said. Martin Habisreitinger, COO for air freight at Hellmann Worldwide Logistics, was not expecting a peak season on the trans-Pacific, but also highlighted ongoing Asia high-tech demand from the US. “We see a shift this year in air cargo from China going more into Southeast Asia,” Habisreitinger told the Journal of Commerce. “Much of what is being reduced in China is now coming out of Vietnam, out of Thailand, India and some other markets. The volume and demand is still there, but much of it is coming out of other origins to China.” No historical pickup in demand Habisreitinger said there has been a definite change in market dynamics this year, as there was no historical pickup in demand before the Oct. 1 start of Golden Week. “Normally, before Golden Week, there’s a lot of cargo coming into the market because factories shut for 10 days in China, but this year we did not see that,” he said. Another factor that normally influences air freight demand is high ocean rates, which signify tight capacity and push cargo owners into the air, but that is currently a nonfactor as ocean rates have fallen significantly on the trans-Pacific in the past few weeks. “We have seen ocean freight rates declining on the trans-Pacific, so we don’t expect huge demand for air freight this peak season,” Habisreitinger said. DSV CEO Jens Lund expects global air cargo volume growth to remain below GDP growth in the fourth quarter. While DSV’s air freight volume of 579,000 metric tons in the third quarter was up 64%, the growth was flat without the 232,000-metric-ton contribution from DB Schenker, according to DSV’s third-quarter earnings. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Air Cargo Forwarder News

Air Cargo Carriers News

Trans-Pacific

Air Cargo

Trans-Pacific air cargo to be driven by ‘vertical’ markets: forwarders

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Slowing demand from sluggish European economies and excess ocean capacity on the Asia-Europe trade lane are frustrating liners’ attempts to raise rates.</div>

Slowing demand from sluggish European economies and excess ocean capacity on the Asia-Europe trade lane are frustrating liners’ attempts to raise rates.

<div class="phx-topic">Spot rates from Asia to North Europe and the Mediterranean remain below long-term rates despite ocean carriers withdrawing significant amounts of capacity and pushing up prices ahead of the end-of-year tender season. Carriers have stepped up efforts to stem the steadily falling spot market by blanking 213,724 TEUs of capacity on Asia-North Europe routes in October, the most withdrawn since March last year, according to eeSea. Drewry reports that carriers announced 90 blanked sailings globally this month, with 43% of those on the Asia-North Europe and Mediterranean trades. Michael Ebbe, CFO of forwarder DSV, said he expected demand to flatten out or go into “slightly negative territory” on Asia-Europe through the fourth quarter and in the run-up to the Lunar New Year holiday in February. “If you look at the latest statistics, it shows that the market is under pressure on this trade lane, and some shippers have maybe pre-loaded some cargo this year,” Ebbe told the Journal of Commerce. While cutting sailings, carriers have also raised freight-all-kinds (FAK) rates. On Oct. 15, an FAK increase added around $300 on the day, but the rate has since given back some of the gains and remains below the contract rate. Another rate increase is planned for Nov. 1, and there are indications that a mid-November increase is also in the cards. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="6e51a3c0-5772-45a7-9cf0-5d566cc75495"></dynamic-object></div>Rate benchmarking platform Xeneta shows the average spot rate for Asia-North Europe is currently at $1,978 per FEU, down 40% since Aug. 1. Average long-term rates signed in the past three months are currently at $2,168 per FEU, with Xeneta data showing the contract rate has been above the spot market since Sept. 10. “The spot-rate spike in mid-October on European-bound front hauls should be good news for carriers, but they won’t be celebrating too much because it is not enough to bring it above the long-term rates,” said Peter Sand, Xeneta’s chief analyst. “This plays into the hands of shippers, who must be considering pushing contract negotiations back into Q1 next year,” he added. “A long-term market higher than a short-term market is an extremely powerful negotiating position for shippers, so why would they lock into a new 12-month contract at those levels?” <h3>Time is on the side of shippers </h3>Sand said shippers with cargo on front hauls could benefit from signing contracts later than normal, as time would work in their favor. “Overcapacity grows bigger every day, the first quarter is [historically] low on volumes, rerouting to avoid the Houthis and the Red Sea is well-established, and the around-Africa premium is still higher than what costs can verify,” he noted. “If shippers can extend existing contracts, that could buy themselves some time, so signing in Q1 instead of December 2025 seems like a fine strategy,” Sand added. Demand this year through August has been robust, with the latest data from Container Trades Statistics (CTS) showing volume on Asia-Europe was up 7.3% in the first eight months of the year. While data for September is not yet available, forwarders have highlighted slowing demand in the fourth quarter from sluggish European economies and excess capacity on Asia-Europe. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="e8ec7edc-c832-4205-a8ed-f653d0f915a5"></dynamic-object></div>“There's a lot of capacity coming in with many newbuildings, and that, in combination with the lower demand, is putting pressure on the rates,” said DSV’s Ebbe. “The carriers have become more disciplined as demand slows, but if you look at the order book, they are still ordering vessels.” The order book has reached 30% of the global in-service fleet at 9.7 million TEUs, with 1.16 million TEUs of capacity comprising ships of 14,500 TEUs and above delivered so far this year, destined mostly for Asia-Europe, according to Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Spot rates from Asia to North Europe and the Mediterranean remain below long-term rates despite ocean carriers withdrawing significant amounts of capacity and pushing up prices ahead of the end-of-year tender season. Carriers have stepped up efforts to stem the steadily falling spot market by blanking 213,724 TEUs of capacity on Asia-North Europe routes in October, the most withdrawn since March last year, according to eeSea. Drewry reports that carriers announced 90 blanked sailings globally this month, with 43% of those on the Asia-North Europe and Mediterranean trades. Michael Ebbe, CFO of forwarder DSV, said he expected demand to flatten out or go into “slightly negative territory” on Asia-Europe through the fourth quarter and in the run-up to the Lunar New Year holiday in February. “If you look at the latest statistics, it shows that the market is under pressure on this trade lane, and some shippers have maybe pre-loaded some cargo this year,” Ebbe told the Journal of Commerce. While cutting sailings, carriers have also raised freight-all-kinds (FAK) rates. On Oct. 15, an FAK increase added around $300 on the day, but the rate has since given back some of the gains and remains below the contract rate. Another rate increase is planned for Nov. 1, and there are indications that a mid-November increase is also in the cards. Rate benchmarking platform Xeneta shows the average spot rate for Asia-North Europe is currently at $1,978 per FEU, down 40% since Aug. 1. Average long-term rates signed in the past three months are currently at $2,168 per FEU, with Xeneta data showing the contract rate has been above the spot market since Sept. 10. “The spot-rate spike in mid-October on European-bound front hauls should be good news for carriers, but they won’t be celebrating too much because it is not enough to bring it above the long-term rates,” said Peter Sand, Xeneta’s chief analyst. “This plays into the hands of shippers, who must be considering pushing contract negotiations back into Q1 next year,” he added. “A long-term market higher than a short-term market is an extremely powerful negotiating position for shippers, so why would they lock into a new 12-month contract at those levels?” Time is on the side of shippers Sand said shippers with cargo on front hauls could benefit from signing contracts later than normal, as time would work in their favor. “Overcapacity grows bigger every day, the first quarter is [historically] low on volumes, rerouting to avoid the Houthis and the Red Sea is well-established, and the around-Africa premium is still higher than what costs can verify,” he noted. “If shippers can extend existing contracts, that could buy themselves some time, so signing in Q1 instead of December 2025 seems like a fine strategy,” Sand added. Demand this year through August has been robust, with the latest data from Container Trades Statistics (CTS) showing volume on Asia-Europe was up 7.3% in the first eight months of the year. While data for September is not yet available, forwarders have highlighted slowing demand in the fourth quarter from sluggish European economies and excess capacity on Asia-Europe. “There's a lot of capacity coming in with many newbuildings, and that, in combination with the lower demand, is putting pressure on the rates,” said DSV’s Ebbe. “The carriers have become more disciplined as demand slows, but if you look at the order book, they are still ordering vessels.” The order book has reached 30% of the global in-service fleet at 9.7 million TEUs, with 1.16 million TEUs of capacity comprising ships of 14,500 TEUs and above delivered so far this year, destined mostly for Asia-Europe, according to Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Asia-Europe

Asia-Europe spot rates defy carrier efforts to lift prices above contract levels

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The combination of AAA Cooper Transportation, Midwest Motor Express and Dependable Highway Express covers the US LTL market coast-to-coast, except for the Northeast. </div>

The combination of AAA Cooper Transportation, Midwest Motor Express and Dependable Highway Express covers the US LTL market coast-to-coast, except for the Northeast.

<div class="phx-topic">Knight-Swift is unifying its three less-than-truckload (LTL) subsidiaries under the AAA Cooper Transportation (ACT) brand, reflecting a back-office integration the company says is complete. The rebranding is the next step in the development of Knight-Swift as a coast-to-coast LTL provider, with terminals in most US regions except the Northeast. As of Jan. 1, Midwest Motor Express (MME) and Dependable Highway Express (DHE) will become ACT, Knight-Swift CEO Adam Miller told Wall Street analysts Wednesday. “The consolidated branding recognizes that we are already one business operating seamlessly on one system through one network,” Miller said during an earnings call. That network is still growing, but <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/knight-swift-puts-ltl-buyouts-on-hold-as-us-freight-market-flattens-5928140">not as quickly as last year</a>, when Knight-Swift <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/knight-swift-acquisition-expands-ltl-network-coast-to-coast-5703164">acquired DHE</a> and added 51 terminals, including DHE facilities and former Yellow properties. The company opened one new LTL terminal in this third quarter and replaced two others with larger facilities. Knight-Swift’s LTL door count increased 10.2% year over year. The LTL segment of Knight-Swift increased revenue 21.5% in the third quarter to $340.5 million, with its top line bolstered by the DHE acquisition in the third quarter of 2024. The three regional LTLs increased their combined shipment volume 14.2% from a year ago in this Q3, again thanks in part to the addition of DHE, boosting overall revenue. Knight-Swift’s LTL segment would have had a $27.1 million operating profit, but a $28.8 million goodwill charge related to the rebranding led to a $1.7 million operating loss. Despite <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ltl-carriers-push-general-rate-hikes-despite-lackluster-us-freight-demand-6101838">market weakness</a>, “we are capturing growth opportunities with new LTL customers as well as from some of our long-standing truckload customers,” Miller said. <h3>LTL realignment </h3>The integration and rebranding of the LTL carriers Knight-Swift began acquiring in 2021 could put the company in a better competitive position in <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/journal-of-commerce-rankings-us-ltl-sector-defies-soft-demand-regains-traction-6010008">an evolving LTL market</a>. Following the collapse of Yellow in July 2023, companies such as Estes Express Lines, R+L Carriers and Saia have risen higher among the top 10 carriers ranked by revenue. Estes was the fifth-largest LTL carrier in 2022 and is now ranked third. R+L was eighth and is now ranked fifth, while Saia rose from ninth-ranked in 2022 to sixth last year. Knight-Swift’s LTL segment ranks 12th on the current Journal of Commerce/SJ Consulting Group list of top 25 US LTL trucking companies, with $1.07 billion in 2024 revenue. Year-over-year comparisons in revenue and volume are likely to get tougher as the DHE acquisition fades from view starting in the fourth quarter, which so far has been weak. “LTL demand appears softer than the normal fourth quarter seasonal slowdown,” Knight-Swift CFO Andrew Hess said during the earnings call. Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto://bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Knight-Swift is unifying its three less-than-truckload (LTL) subsidiaries under the AAA Cooper Transportation (ACT) brand, reflecting a back-office integration the company says is complete. The rebranding is the next step in the development of Knight-Swift as a coast-to-coast LTL provider, with terminals in most US regions except the Northeast. As of Jan. 1, Midwest Motor Express (MME) and Dependable Highway Express (DHE) will become ACT, Knight-Swift CEO Adam Miller told Wall Street analysts Wednesday. “The consolidated branding recognizes that we are already one business operating seamlessly on one system through one network,” Miller said during an earnings call. That network is still growing, but not as quickly as last year , when Knight-Swift acquired DHE and added 51 terminals, including DHE facilities and former Yellow properties. The company opened one new LTL terminal in this third quarter and replaced two others with larger facilities. Knight-Swift’s LTL door count increased 10.2% year over year. The LTL segment of Knight-Swift increased revenue 21.5% in the third quarter to $340.5 million, with its top line bolstered by the DHE acquisition in the third quarter of 2024. The three regional LTLs increased their combined shipment volume 14.2% from a year ago in this Q3, again thanks in part to the addition of DHE, boosting overall revenue. Knight-Swift’s LTL segment would have had a $27.1 million operating profit, but a $28.8 million goodwill charge related to the rebranding led to a $1.7 million operating loss. Despite market weakness , “we are capturing growth opportunities with new LTL customers as well as from some of our long-standing truckload customers,” Miller said. LTL realignment The integration and rebranding of the LTL carriers Knight-Swift began acquiring in 2021 could put the company in a better competitive position in an evolving LTL market . Following the collapse of Yellow in July 2023, companies such as Estes Express Lines, R+L Carriers and Saia have risen higher among the top 10 carriers ranked by revenue. Estes was the fifth-largest LTL carrier in 2022 and is now ranked third. R+L was eighth and is now ranked fifth, while Saia rose from ninth-ranked in 2022 to sixth last year. Knight-Swift’s LTL segment ranks 12th on the current Journal of Commerce/SJ Consulting Group list of top 25 US LTL trucking companies, with $1.07 billion in 2024 revenue. Year-over-year comparisons in revenue and volume are likely to get tougher as the DHE acquisition fades from view starting in the fourth quarter, which so far has been weak. “LTL demand appears softer than the normal fourth quarter seasonal slowdown,” Knight-Swift CFO Andrew Hess said during the earnings call. Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .

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Knight-Swift combining LTL subsidiaries to form one carrier under ACT brand

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The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

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Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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