<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">President Bush's new budget might recommend an additional $1.2 billion to build up the military carg</div>

President Bush's new budget might recommend an additional $1.2 billion to build up the military carg

<div>President Bush's new budget might recommend an additional $1.2 billion to build up the military cargo fleet and could call for creating a special fund in which to place all sealift-related money.Added to money appropriated in past years for construction and acquisition of new military supply vessels, the total funneled into the new fund would mount to over $3 billion.Government and industry sources confirmed that the fiscal year 1993 budget blueprint may include a legislative proposal for the so-called sealift defense fund, a single, protected source for sealift money.Budget documents for fiscal 1993, which begins Oct. 1, will be released...

President Bush's new budget might recommend an additional $1.2 billion to build up the military cargo fleet and could call for creating a special fund in which to place all sealift-related money. Added to money appropriated in past years for construction and acquisition of new military supply vessels, the total funneled into the new fund would mount to over $3 billion.Government and industry sources confirmed that the fiscal year 1993 budget blueprint may include a legislative proposal for the so-called sealift defense fund, a single, protected source for sealift money. Budget documents for fiscal 1993, which begins Oct. 1, will be released later this month or early in February. The sealift fund idea has been kicked around for about a year and was even part of a House legislative proposal, but was scrapped late last year by the House Ways and Means Committee. A government source said the defense fund "is being internally staffed" at the Department of Defense - bureaucratese for saying that it is under serious consideration. "It hasn't been blessed as a concept yet by senior defense officials," continued the source. A maritime industry source, who also requested anonymity, was more certain about the process: "The 1993 defense budget recasts the sealift budget under a sealift fund." He said the budget also proposes the extra $1.2 billion in spending for sealift. Early congressional reaction was lukewarm, because the major concern on Capitol Hill for about two years now has been that the money appropriated for sealift should be spent. A Senate source said the sealift fund "sounds like a Department of Defense slush fund . . . We would take a close look at it." About $1.3 billion earmarked for sealift has languished while the Pentagon has tried to determine how to spend it. A massive Pentagon study of sealift and airlift needs in the wake of the Persian Gulf war is supposed to answer those questions. That study, known as the mobility requirements study, is overdue, but may be released in conjunction with President Bush's budget. Several sources said the sealift defense fund plan could be a move made in anticipation of the conclusions in the Pentagon study. Apparently that study is a linchpin for other sealift-related projects. For instance, the Naval Sea Systems Command is evaluating sealift vessel designs submitted by U.S. shipyards, but no final decisions will be made until the numbers, type and mix of vessels needed are determined by the requirements study. A Navy official said, "We're about as far ahead of the power curve as we can be, given we don't have anything official." Establishing a sealift fund could have some advantages, in terms of funding flexibility and revenue potential, according to sources, especially if it is used as a resting place for outside revenues. For example, during the Persian Gulf war, there were questions about where to put the money contributed by U.S. allies during the conflict. A sealift fund could solve that problem. Also, revenues generated under sealift vessel-leasing programs, if that activity occurs, could go directly into the fund.

Maritime

BUSH BUDGET MAY INCLUDE SEALIFT DEFENSE FUND

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Port of Quebec received clearance from Canada’s customs authority to handle and inspect international containers, part of the country’s long-term pivot away from trade with the US.</div>

The Port of Quebec received clearance from Canada’s customs authority to handle and inspect international containers, part of the country’s long-term pivot away from trade with the US.

Feature image

<div class="phx-topic">Canada’s customs agency has granted the Port of Quebec preliminary authority to handle international marine containers, prompting terminal operator QSL to move forward with plans to build out the port’s container handling capacity. Minister Joël Lightbound, the federal government’s chief liaison to Quebec, announced Friday that the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) designated the port along the St. Lawrence River in Quebec City as a first port of arrival for receiving international marine containers. CBSA is now working with the Quebec Port Authority and QSL on permitting and building a container inspection facility, which are requirements for the final certification as a customs exam site. QSL will also have to present the business case to CBSA for customs exams. Once the certification is final, CBSA will deploy officers and container inspection equipment. Lightbound said in a statement the CBSA certification for Quebec was part of the broader trade initiatives undertaken by Prime Minister Mark Carney as he looks to pivot the country’s trade dependence away from the US. The Canadian federal government has set aside some C$5 billion in its budget for developing port, rail and other supply-chain infrastructure. The Trump administration’s tariffs have affected more than one-third of Canada’s exports, according to consultancy BCG. The two countries are currently engaged in talks about relief on specific tariffs, ahead of what could possibly be a renegotiation of the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement later this year. “What we are announcing today is a decisive milestone that aligns with all the efforts our government is making to diversify our trade relationships, become internationally competitive, and remove barriers to Canada’s prosperity,” Lightbound said. “(The port) will become a strategic hub that will contribute even more to the economic vitality and dynamism of Quebec City, Quebec, and Canada.” The 3,700-TEU MSC Nahara called the Quebec port on Feb. 17 on a voyage from Le Havre, France — the only container ship in the past 12 months to call the port. <h3>‘Defining step’ </h3>With the CBSA certification in hand, QSL said in a separate statement Friday it will submit plans to the Quebec Port Authority for developing a 200,000-TEU terminal at its Beauport facility on the St. Lawrence. Beauport does have gantry cranes but primarily handles bulk cargo. The site also has a railhead for Canadian National Railway. The CBSA customs certification “represents a defining step in the development of the Quebec City container terminal project,” QSL said, adding that Beauport’s 49-foot-depth will allow it to handle container ships on international services. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Canada’s customs agency has granted the Port of Quebec preliminary authority to handle international marine containers, prompting terminal operator QSL to move forward with plans to build out the port’s container handling capacity. Minister Joël Lightbound, the federal government’s chief liaison to Quebec, announced Friday that the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) designated the port along the St. Lawrence River in Quebec City as a first port of arrival for receiving international marine containers. CBSA is now working with the Quebec Port Authority and QSL on permitting and building a container inspection facility, which are requirements for the final certification as a customs exam site. QSL will also have to present the business case to CBSA for customs exams. Once the certification is final, CBSA will deploy officers and container inspection equipment. Lightbound said in a statement the CBSA certification for Quebec was part of the broader trade initiatives undertaken by Prime Minister Mark Carney as he looks to pivot the country’s trade dependence away from the US. The Canadian federal government has set aside some C$5 billion in its budget for developing port, rail and other supply-chain infrastructure. The Trump administration’s tariffs have affected more than one-third of Canada’s exports, according to consultancy BCG. The two countries are currently engaged in talks about relief on specific tariffs, ahead of what could possibly be a renegotiation of the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement later this year. “What we are announcing today is a decisive milestone that aligns with all the efforts our government is making to diversify our trade relationships, become internationally competitive, and remove barriers to Canada’s prosperity,” Lightbound said. “(The port) will become a strategic hub that will contribute even more to the economic vitality and dynamism of Quebec City, Quebec, and Canada.” The 3,700-TEU MSC Nahara called the Quebec port on Feb. 17 on a voyage from Le Havre, France — the only container ship in the past 12 months to call the port. ‘Defining step’ With the CBSA certification in hand, QSL said in a separate statement Friday it will submit plans to the Quebec Port Authority for developing a 200,000-TEU terminal at its Beauport facility on the St. Lawrence. Beauport does have gantry cranes but primarily handles bulk cargo. The site also has a railhead for Canadian National Railway. The CBSA customs certification “represents a defining step in the development of the Quebec City container terminal project,” QSL said, adding that Beauport’s 49-foot-depth will allow it to handle container ships on international services. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Port News

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

Port infrastructure

North American ports

Marine terminals

 Customs designation triggers QSL terminal project in Quebec City

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">A “clean-up effort” against unsafe and illegal trucking firms is cutting enough capacity to spur even bigger rate hikes, the company’s CEO says.</div>

A “clean-up effort” against unsafe and illegal trucking firms is cutting enough capacity to spur even bigger rate hikes, the company’s CEO says.

<div class="phx-topic">Shippers should expect more aggressive second-quarter rate increases from truckload providers as soaring fuel prices and a federal crackdown on illegal trucking shrink available capacity, executives at one of the largest US trucking companies say. CEO Adam Miller said Knight-Swift Transportation is planning rate increases ranging from the high single-digits to low double-digits as the company, which reported $7.5 billion in revenue in 2025, enters bid season and smaller carriers continue to exit the truckload market. Knight-Swift believes the federal government’s crackdown against illegally operating companies and non-domiciled drivers cut into capacity significantly in the first quarter and now that contraction will show up in higher rates in the second quarter. “The ongoing efforts of the (Federal Motor Carrier Administration) and the (Department of Transportation) to prevent and revoke invalidly issued CDLs, shut down non-compliant CDL schools, and address our service abuses are in the early stages and are already having an impact on the market,” Miller said during Knight-Swift's earnings call this week. “This cleanup effort should, in our view, have an outsized impact on not just the one-way truckload market, but on the lowest priced capacity in this market,” he added, saying that enough capacity is being removed that “even small changes can cause disruption.” “While the pricing environment is improving, we are still seeing carrier failures, as the damage done over a prolonged downcycle is not quickly recovered, especially with the cash flow crunch brought on by the recent fuel spike,” Miller said. <h3>Signs of recovery </h3>The optimism at Knight-Swift comes as other trucking metrics show steady improvement. The American Trucking Associations for-hire, contract freight Truck Tonnage Index increased 0.3% in March, following a 2.9% increase in February. The index is up 3% compared with the same period a year ago. “While March wasn’t particularly strong sequentially, it was the largest year-over-year increase since October 2022,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “The first quarter of 2026 was also the best performance since the third quarter of 2017 when considering both sequential and year-over-year results.” However, the most recent data from DAT Freight &amp; Analytics shows “the recent rate recovery stems from a shrinking carrier base (capacity attrition) rather than increased demand,” the company said in its April 18 weekly report. DAT spot rates are up 25% to 30% year-over-year. “It certainly feels like the setup is there for those in the industry to get back to rates that put our industry in a position where the good quality, compliant carriers have the ability to make enough margin to invest in their businesses, invest in drivers, invest in safety and invest in good quality equipment,” said Miller. ”Our ability to get rates is driven largely by capacity reduction versus demand,” he added. “If we start to see demand pick up in conjunction with these early efforts, we could find ourselves in a much more favorable position from a carrier standpoint.” However, rate increases in the less-than-truckload sector may be less. “Our LTL business has been growing and does not have the same cycle as truckload,” Miller said. “On LTL renewals, we are getting mid-single-digits right now.” Contact Dan Ronan at <a href="mailto:contactdanronan@gmail.com">contactdanronan@gmail.com</a>. </div>

Shippers should expect more aggressive second-quarter rate increases from truckload providers as soaring fuel prices and a federal crackdown on illegal trucking shrink available capacity, executives at one of the largest US trucking companies say. CEO Adam Miller said Knight-Swift Transportation is planning rate increases ranging from the high single-digits to low double-digits as the company, which reported $7.5 billion in revenue in 2025, enters bid season and smaller carriers continue to exit the truckload market. Knight-Swift believes the federal government’s crackdown against illegally operating companies and non-domiciled drivers cut into capacity significantly in the first quarter and now that contraction will show up in higher rates in the second quarter. “The ongoing efforts of the (Federal Motor Carrier Administration) and the (Department of Transportation) to prevent and revoke invalidly issued CDLs, shut down non-compliant CDL schools, and address our service abuses are in the early stages and are already having an impact on the market,” Miller said during Knight-Swift's earnings call this week. “This cleanup effort should, in our view, have an outsized impact on not just the one-way truckload market, but on the lowest priced capacity in this market,” he added, saying that enough capacity is being removed that “even small changes can cause disruption.” “While the pricing environment is improving, we are still seeing carrier failures, as the damage done over a prolonged downcycle is not quickly recovered, especially with the cash flow crunch brought on by the recent fuel spike,” Miller said. Signs of recovery The optimism at Knight-Swift comes as other trucking metrics show steady improvement. The American Trucking Associations for-hire, contract freight Truck Tonnage Index increased 0.3% in March, following a 2.9% increase in February. The index is up 3% compared with the same period a year ago. “While March wasn’t particularly strong sequentially, it was the largest year-over-year increase since October 2022,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “The first quarter of 2026 was also the best performance since the third quarter of 2017 when considering both sequential and year-over-year results.” However, the most recent data from DAT Freight & Analytics shows “the recent rate recovery stems from a shrinking carrier base (capacity attrition) rather than increased demand,” the company said in its April 18 weekly report. DAT spot rates are up 25% to 30% year-over-year. “It certainly feels like the setup is there for those in the industry to get back to rates that put our industry in a position where the good quality, compliant carriers have the ability to make enough margin to invest in their businesses, invest in drivers, invest in safety and invest in good quality equipment,” said Miller. ”Our ability to get rates is driven largely by capacity reduction versus demand,” he added. “If we start to see demand pick up in conjunction with these early efforts, we could find ourselves in a much more favorable position from a carrier standpoint.” However, rate increases in the less-than-truckload sector may be less. “Our LTL business has been growing and does not have the same cycle as truckload,” Miller said. “On LTL renewals, we are getting mid-single-digits right now.” Contact Dan Ronan at contactdanronan@gmail.com .

Trucking News

Truck brokers

Surface

US truckload rate hikes to grow more aggressive: Knight-Swift

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The current pipeline of newbuilding programs for ultra-large container vessels vastly outstrips the construction of new berths intended to receive them, meaning we are literally building a fleet for which there may soon be no room at the inn, writes Robbert van Trooijen.</div>

The current pipeline of newbuilding programs for ultra-large container vessels vastly outstrips the construction of new berths intended to receive them, meaning we are literally building a fleet for which there may soon be no room at the inn, writes Robbert van Trooijen.

<div class="phx-topic">In his recent work, Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, Edward Fishman argues that while great powers once rose by controlling geographic straits like the Bosphorus, modern power relies on different, often digital, levers. Today we are reminded that even in the Digital Age, physical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz can still disrupt supply chains to such an extent that they threaten global recession. But as we look toward a post-2026 horizon — assuming current geopolitical fires are eventually extinguished — a more systemic bottleneck looms: the stagnation of global port infrastructure. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6209409_0.1.jpg"></img></div>The math of global trade is currently heading toward a collision course. Available ocean terminal capacity at major gateways and hubs is reaching a saturation point. While the industry has leaned heavily on efficiency gains and automation to squeeze more "moves per hour" out of existing footprints, there is a lack of new physical capacity being added to the global map. We see a flurry of M&amp;A activity — such as the planned sale of assets like Hutchison Port Holdings — but shifting ownership of an existing facility in itself does nothing to accommodate the actual growth of global trade. The strongest evidence of this disconnect lies in the shipyards. The current pipeline of newbuilding programs for ultra-large container vessels vastly outstrips the construction of new berths intended to receive them. We are, quite literally, building a fleet for which there may soon be no room at the inn. <h3>Protecting margins — at the expense of cargo flow </h3>The hesitation to build is certainly not due to a lack of profitability. The investment case for terminal infrastructure is, in fact, staggering. APM Terminals, a subsidiary of Danish conglomerate A.P. Moller Maersk, reported a return on invested capital (ROIC) of no less than 16.1% in the 2025 fourth quarter, a figure that outperforms almost every other sub-sector in the maritime industry. So, why the inertia? There is no simple answer, but part of the answer lies in a classic "incumbent’s dilemma." While new capacity would benefit the global economy by increasing competitiveness, it would also — at least temporarily — dilute the high returns currently enjoyed by existing operators. In some markets, bottlenecks are not just a nuisance; they are lucrative. This creates a perverse incentive for incumbents to lobby against greenfield projects, effectively protecting their margins at the expense of trade fluidity. The investment gap is most visible in the Southern Hemisphere. As industry analyst Lars Jensen highlighted at TPM26 in Long Beach in early March, demographic shifts identify Latin America and Africa as the next great trade frontiers. Yet, these are the very regions where the pushback against "carrier-owned" terminals is loudest. Local players often lobby against the participation of ocean carriers, arguing that vertical integration is anti-competitive. This is an understandable yet somewhat protectionist stance. It is the ocean carriers who possess the most direct incentive to drive capacity growth — they are the ones who need the berths to keep their growing fleet of vessels moving. The "dominance" argument falls flat when compared to the alternative: a stagnant, expensive status quo maintained by local (family-owned) oligopolies. <h3>The need to act now </h3>Any legitimate anti-competitive concerns can be easily mitigated through clear, enforceable neutrality clauses within concession agreements. These clauses ensure that while a carrier may own the terminal, it remains an open-access utility for the broader market. The construction of a greenfield site takes three to five years. If we do not break ground today, the “landside chokepoint” of 2028 and beyond could very well make today’s Red Sea/Strait of Hormuz disruptions look like a minor logistical hiccup. To secure the future of global trade, we must look past the protectionist rhetoric of local incumbents and embrace the capital and operational drive of carrier-terminal combinations. The returns are there and the demand is there. But the berths are not. It is time for a virtuous cycle to take over the industry. Robbert van Trooijen, founder and president of Inception Partners and a McKinsey consultant, had a 33-year tenure with The Nedlloyd Group, P&amp;O Nedlloyd and the Maersk Group. Contact him at r<a href="mailto:robbert@inceptionpartners.org">obbert@inceptionpartners.org</a>. </div>

In his recent work, Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, Edward Fishman argues that while great powers once rose by controlling geographic straits like the Bosphorus, modern power relies on different, often digital, levers. Today we are reminded that even in the Digital Age, physical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz can still disrupt supply chains to such an extent that they threaten global recession. But as we look toward a post-2026 horizon — assuming current geopolitical fires are eventually extinguished — a more systemic bottleneck looms: the stagnation of global port infrastructure. The math of global trade is currently heading toward a collision course. Available ocean terminal capacity at major gateways and hubs is reaching a saturation point. While the industry has leaned heavily on efficiency gains and automation to squeeze more "moves per hour" out of existing footprints, there is a lack of new physical capacity being added to the global map. We see a flurry of M&A activity — such as the planned sale of assets like Hutchison Port Holdings — but shifting ownership of an existing facility in itself does nothing to accommodate the actual growth of global trade. The strongest evidence of this disconnect lies in the shipyards. The current pipeline of newbuilding programs for ultra-large container vessels vastly outstrips the construction of new berths intended to receive them. We are, quite literally, building a fleet for which there may soon be no room at the inn. Protecting margins — at the expense of cargo flow The hesitation to build is certainly not due to a lack of profitability. The investment case for terminal infrastructure is, in fact, staggering. APM Terminals, a subsidiary of Danish conglomerate A.P. Moller Maersk, reported a return on invested capital (ROIC) of no less than 16.1% in the 2025 fourth quarter, a figure that outperforms almost every other sub-sector in the maritime industry. So, why the inertia? There is no simple answer, but part of the answer lies in a classic "incumbent’s dilemma." While new capacity would benefit the global economy by increasing competitiveness, it would also — at least temporarily — dilute the high returns currently enjoyed by existing operators. In some markets, bottlenecks are not just a nuisance; they are lucrative. This creates a perverse incentive for incumbents to lobby against greenfield projects, effectively protecting their margins at the expense of trade fluidity. The investment gap is most visible in the Southern Hemisphere. As industry analyst Lars Jensen highlighted at TPM26 in Long Beach in early March, demographic shifts identify Latin America and Africa as the next great trade frontiers. Yet, these are the very regions where the pushback against "carrier-owned" terminals is loudest. Local players often lobby against the participation of ocean carriers, arguing that vertical integration is anti-competitive. This is an understandable yet somewhat protectionist stance. It is the ocean carriers who possess the most direct incentive to drive capacity growth — they are the ones who need the berths to keep their growing fleet of vessels moving. The "dominance" argument falls flat when compared to the alternative: a stagnant, expensive status quo maintained by local (family-owned) oligopolies. The need to act now Any legitimate anti-competitive concerns can be easily mitigated through clear, enforceable neutrality clauses within concession agreements. These clauses ensure that while a carrier may own the terminal, it remains an open-access utility for the broader market. The construction of a greenfield site takes three to five years. If we do not break ground today, the “landside chokepoint” of 2028 and beyond could very well make today’s Red Sea/Strait of Hormuz disruptions look like a minor logistical hiccup. To secure the future of global trade, we must look past the protectionist rhetoric of local incumbents and embrace the capital and operational drive of carrier-terminal combinations. The returns are there and the demand is there. But the berths are not. It is time for a virtuous cycle to take over the industry. Robbert van Trooijen, founder and president of Inception Partners and a McKinsey consultant, had a 33-year tenure with The Nedlloyd Group, P&O Nedlloyd and the Maersk Group. Contact him at r obbert@inceptionpartners.org .

Supply chain

Landside infrastructure is container shipping’s next great chokepoint

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">While there have been some schedule changes for multipurpose vessels, reliability is still sufficient only because the shock hasn't gotten through the system yet — and conditions will likely worsen from there, conference attendees were told.</div>

While there have been some schedule changes for multipurpose vessels, reliability is still sufficient only because the shock hasn't gotten through the system yet — and conditions will likely worsen from there, conference attendees were told.

<div class="phx-topic">New Orleans —The war-induced disruption to energy markets is a significant financial shock that the project cargo industry didn’t plan for — and the worst is likely yet to come, experts speaking at the Journal of Commerce’s Breakbulk and Project Cargo Conference 2026 said this week. Christian Ohlrich, global director of logistics at energy storage manufacturer Fluence Energy, said his “major concern” is of “drastic” financial impacts for shippers with projects already underway. While there have been some schedule changes for multipurpose vessels, reliability is still there, but only because the shock “just hasn’t gotten through the system yet,” Ohlrich said. “I would expect the schedule to start seeing some effects in the fall and then get worse,” he said. To counter this, Fluence is trying to pre-order as many project supplies as financially possible. “We’re pre-buying, we’re storing, and we’re preparing,” said Ohlrich. Amy Groeschel, director and head of energy spending at S&amp;P Global Energy, had a stark warning for project cargo shippers: “It’s gonna get worse before it gets better.” <h3>AI driver highlighted </h3>Looking beyond the current conflict with Iran, Groeschel flagged the impact of AI as a huge project cargo driver, not only for renewable power, but also for batteries and storage. “Our newest forecast really presents a very positive spin for renewable power and where that's coming from,” she said. “Even in the face of this conflict, we might see this change even more next year, as countries go back to the thought of energy security and making different policy choices in order to create more stable power supplies.” Corrie Henry, regional director for logistics and trade compliance at engineering, procurement and construction company Worley, said he expected to see EPCs “hedge their bets” on LNG and oil, adding renewables when speed and politics demand it. “My bet is going to be on a multi-energy buildout,” Henry told Breakbulk26. While she agreed with a multi-fuel transition future, Groeschel warned that the outlook could be “messy” and in “fits and starts.” “There is a mismatch of project cycle and the need for energy,” she said. “Those quick to deploy technologies, like in renewable power in some places, are appropriate and are incentivized by the government. ”And so that’s where you’re going to see those big build outs,” which will drive project cargo demand, she added. Contact Carly Fields at <a href="mailto:carly.fields@spglobal.com">carly.fields@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

New Orleans —The war-induced disruption to energy markets is a significant financial shock that the project cargo industry didn’t plan for — and the worst is likely yet to come, experts speaking at the Journal of Commerce’s Breakbulk and Project Cargo Conference 2026 said this week. Christian Ohlrich, global director of logistics at energy storage manufacturer Fluence Energy, said his “major concern” is of “drastic” financial impacts for shippers with projects already underway. While there have been some schedule changes for multipurpose vessels, reliability is still there, but only because the shock “just hasn’t gotten through the system yet,” Ohlrich said. “I would expect the schedule to start seeing some effects in the fall and then get worse,” he said. To counter this, Fluence is trying to pre-order as many project supplies as financially possible. “We’re pre-buying, we’re storing, and we’re preparing,” said Ohlrich. Amy Groeschel, director and head of energy spending at S&P Global Energy, had a stark warning for project cargo shippers: “It’s gonna get worse before it gets better.” AI driver highlighted Looking beyond the current conflict with Iran, Groeschel flagged the impact of AI as a huge project cargo driver, not only for renewable power, but also for batteries and storage. “Our newest forecast really presents a very positive spin for renewable power and where that's coming from,” she said. “Even in the face of this conflict, we might see this change even more next year, as countries go back to the thought of energy security and making different policy choices in order to create more stable power supplies.” Corrie Henry, regional director for logistics and trade compliance at engineering, procurement and construction company Worley, said he expected to see EPCs “hedge their bets” on LNG and oil, adding renewables when speed and politics demand it. “My bet is going to be on a multi-energy buildout,” Henry told Breakbulk26. While she agreed with a multi-fuel transition future, Groeschel warned that the outlook could be “messy” and in “fits and starts.” “There is a mismatch of project cycle and the need for energy,” she said. “Those quick to deploy technologies, like in renewable power in some places, are appropriate and are incentivized by the government. ”And so that’s where you’re going to see those big build outs,” which will drive project cargo demand, she added. Contact Carly Fields at carly.fields@spglobal.com .

Energy projects

Project cargo

Breakbulk News

Breakbulk26: War-related financial, schedule shocks ahead for energy projects

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The conflict could also spur increased spending on ports and landside infrastructure in the Middle East as investors seek to develop alternative transport solutions to avoid areas that have been closed or heavily impacted by the hostilities, executives said Thursday on a pair of webinars.</div>

The conflict could also spur increased spending on ports and landside infrastructure in the Middle East as investors seek to develop alternative transport solutions to avoid areas that have been closed or heavily impacted by the hostilities, executives said Thursday on a pair of webinars.

<div class="phx-topic">Blank sailings, service cancellations and routing changes are among the likely impacts on container shipping in the coming months from the Middle East war, shipping executives and analysts said Thursday. Longer-term, potential oil shortages could significantly affect global manufacturing, curtailing container volumes, they said. The conflict could also spur increased spending on ports and landside infrastructure in the Middle East as investors seek to develop alternative transport solutions to avoid areas, including the Strait of Hormuz, that have been closed or heavily impacted by the hostilities. The potential consequences of the US and Israel war with Iran were outlined in separate webinars Thursday hosted by ocean carrier Hapag-Lloyd and maritime consultancy Drewry. To date, the Iran war has had a limited impact on global trade except for escalating oil prices, Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen said during the carrier-backed event. Jansen pointed out the carrier and shippers have come together to agree on alternative transport options, including road transport, for freight in the Gulf so that “92% of cargo that was stuck now has a clear delivery date.” A month ago, Habben Jansen said the war in the Middle East <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/war-adding-40-50-million-per-week-to-hapag-lloyds-costs-ceo-6193532">had raised Hapag-Lloyd’s operating costs by $40 million to $50 million per week</a>, a reality he said was “not something that you can sustain for very long.” The consequences of a protracted conflict are more severe with higher oil prices and oil shortages curtailing production of fertilizers, foodstuffs, plastics and manufactured goods such as shoes and electronics that use oil derivatives. Asia and the Indian sub-continent are especially susceptible to oil-related disruptions because of their heavy reliance on Middle East crude imports, shipments that have largely stopped following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Asia relies on the Middle East for about 60% of its total crude oil imports, while about 55% of India’s oil comes from the region. Björn Vang Jensen, a Dubai-based former executive vice president and global head of ocean at EasySpeed International Logistics, said the impact of the disruptions would be felt in the coming months. With the crop sowing season about to start across the Indian sub-continent, Asia fertilizer shortages will result in thinner crop yields and higher food prices, he told the Hapag webinar. Shortages are already being felt in Australia, where the federal government has recently secured an emergency supply of 250,000 metric tons of urea fertilizer from Indonesia. That came after Australia’s National Farmers Federation warned that fertilizer shortages and surging fuel costs would reduce the acreage planted, leading to higher food prices. <h3>Year will be a ‘mess’ </h3>Vang Jensen indicated oil shortages could hit manufacturing, especially in Asia, which would affect exports and container volumes. “There may be a peak season, but I doubt it. If there is, it’ll be muted,” he said. “There will be service cancellations, blank sailings, [and] routing changes if the conflict drags on ... the whole year is going to be a mess.” Simon Heaney, Drewry’s senior manager of container research, said the consultancy has now cut its growth forecast for global container port throughput to 1.8%, down from 2.2% in February. “Any further escalation [in the conflict] could force a bigger downgrade,” Heaney said on Drewry’s webinar. “Port throughput growth could sink to between 0.5% and 1.3%, which comes after two years of very strong growth of 6%.” With no sign the Middle East war will end quickly and ongoing uncertainty about the security situation, carriers are in no rush to return to the Red Sea/Suez Canal or the Arabian Sea, executives said. Lars Jensen, an industry analyst and CEO of Vespucci Maritime, told the Hapag-Lloyd webinar that Iran and its allies could easily threaten the Red Sea, especially since it has already closed Hormuz, and on Wednesday seized two container ships belonging to Mediterranean Shipping Co. Even if Iran was to reopen Hormuz, restoring access to the Persian Gulf and its ports, a quick return by ocean carriers was seen as unlikely. “Drewry’s view is that direct container ship sailings into Gulf ports will not happen until a substantive deal is reached and the risk of attack is very low,” Heaney told the Journal of Commerce. On the Drewry webinar, he said the longer-term consequences of the conflict would further entrench carriers to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa. Heaney also thought there would be greater interest in developing ports outside the Strait of Hormuz and upgrading inland infrastructure among the Gulf Cooperation Council, an intergovernmental political and economic union developing the 600-mile Saudi Arabia land bridge railway. Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>. </div>

Blank sailings, service cancellations and routing changes are among the likely impacts on container shipping in the coming months from the Middle East war, shipping executives and analysts said Thursday. Longer-term, potential oil shortages could significantly affect global manufacturing, curtailing container volumes, they said. The conflict could also spur increased spending on ports and landside infrastructure in the Middle East as investors seek to develop alternative transport solutions to avoid areas, including the Strait of Hormuz, that have been closed or heavily impacted by the hostilities. The potential consequences of the US and Israel war with Iran were outlined in separate webinars Thursday hosted by ocean carrier Hapag-Lloyd and maritime consultancy Drewry. To date, the Iran war has had a limited impact on global trade except for escalating oil prices, Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen said during the carrier-backed event. Jansen pointed out the carrier and shippers have come together to agree on alternative transport options, including road transport, for freight in the Gulf so that “92% of cargo that was stuck now has a clear delivery date.” A month ago, Habben Jansen said the war in the Middle East had raised Hapag-Lloyd’s operating costs by $40 million to $50 million per week , a reality he said was “not something that you can sustain for very long.” The consequences of a protracted conflict are more severe with higher oil prices and oil shortages curtailing production of fertilizers, foodstuffs, plastics and manufactured goods such as shoes and electronics that use oil derivatives. Asia and the Indian sub-continent are especially susceptible to oil-related disruptions because of their heavy reliance on Middle East crude imports, shipments that have largely stopped following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Asia relies on the Middle East for about 60% of its total crude oil imports, while about 55% of India’s oil comes from the region. Björn Vang Jensen, a Dubai-based former executive vice president and global head of ocean at EasySpeed International Logistics, said the impact of the disruptions would be felt in the coming months. With the crop sowing season about to start across the Indian sub-continent, Asia fertilizer shortages will result in thinner crop yields and higher food prices, he told the Hapag webinar. Shortages are already being felt in Australia, where the federal government has recently secured an emergency supply of 250,000 metric tons of urea fertilizer from Indonesia. That came after Australia’s National Farmers Federation warned that fertilizer shortages and surging fuel costs would reduce the acreage planted, leading to higher food prices. Year will be a ‘mess’ Vang Jensen indicated oil shortages could hit manufacturing, especially in Asia, which would affect exports and container volumes. “There may be a peak season, but I doubt it. If there is, it’ll be muted,” he said. “There will be service cancellations, blank sailings, [and] routing changes if the conflict drags on ... the whole year is going to be a mess.” Simon Heaney, Drewry’s senior manager of container research, said the consultancy has now cut its growth forecast for global container port throughput to 1.8%, down from 2.2% in February. “Any further escalation [in the conflict] could force a bigger downgrade,” Heaney said on Drewry’s webinar. “Port throughput growth could sink to between 0.5% and 1.3%, which comes after two years of very strong growth of 6%.” With no sign the Middle East war will end quickly and ongoing uncertainty about the security situation, carriers are in no rush to return to the Red Sea/Suez Canal or the Arabian Sea, executives said. Lars Jensen, an industry analyst and CEO of Vespucci Maritime, told the Hapag-Lloyd webinar that Iran and its allies could easily threaten the Red Sea, especially since it has already closed Hormuz, and on Wednesday seized two container ships belonging to Mediterranean Shipping Co. Even if Iran was to reopen Hormuz, restoring access to the Persian Gulf and its ports, a quick return by ocean carriers was seen as unlikely. “Drewry’s view is that direct container ship sailings into Gulf ports will not happen until a substantive deal is reached and the risk of attack is very low,” Heaney told the Journal of Commerce. On the Drewry webinar, he said the longer-term consequences of the conflict would further entrench carriers to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa. Heaney also thought there would be greater interest in developing ports outside the Strait of Hormuz and upgrading inland infrastructure among the Gulf Cooperation Council, an intergovernmental political and economic union developing the 600-mile Saudi Arabia land bridge railway. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

Container lines

Asia-Europe

International ports

Container Shipping News

Container shipping faces blank sailings, falling demand from prolonged Iran war

Use code GTT26W at checkout and save $900 on first year of an annual Gold subscription!

Upgrade Subscription - Gold Trials

Become a Gold Subscriber and Save!

Arm your team with the most trusted information portal for the international container shipping industry.

Group Subscriptions - Wide Box

Get into a group subscription today

Use code SSFTW30 at checkout to save 30% on a Silver or Silver Plus annual subscription! 

Subscribe Now - FT to S/SP - Wide Box

SPRING SALE!

Use code GW595 and upgrade to Gold for just $595! Valid for first year of subscription.

Upgrade Subscription - S/SP to Gold - Wide Box

SAVE $900 ON A GOLD SUBSCRIPTION

Use code SSLW30 at checkout and save 30% on an annual Silver or Silver Plus subscription!

Subscribe Now - Anonymous to S/SP - Wide Box

Access Journal of Commerce content for 30 days

Free Trial - Wide Box

START A FREE TRIAL TODAY

Use code SSGFTW895 at checkout to save $600 on first year of a Gold subscription!

Subscribe Now - FT to Gold - Wide Box

Use code SSLW895 at checkout and save $600 on first year of a Gold subscription!

Subscribe Now - Anonymous to Gold - Wide Box

SPRING SALE: Use code SSFTW30 to save 30% on first year of a Silver or Silver Plus annual subscription!


Subscribe Now - FT to S/SP - Offer Box

Subscribe and Save

GET INTO A GROUP SUBSCRIPTION: Arm your team with unlimited Journal of Commerce content

Group Subscriptions - Offer Box

Group Subscriptions

SPRING SALE: Use code SSLW30 at checkout and save 30% on an annual Silver or Silver Plus subscription!

Subscribe Now - Anonymous to S/SP - Offer Box

SUBSCRIBE TODAY

UPGRADE TO GOLD AND SAVE: Use code GTT26W at checkout and save $900 on first year of a Gold subscription!

Upgrade Subscription

SPRING SALE: Use code SSLW895 at checkout and save $600 on an annual Gold subscription!

Subscribe Now - Anonymous to Gold - Offer Box

SAVE $900 ON A GOLD SUBSCRIPTION: Use code GW595 and upgrade to Gold for just $595! Valid on first year of subscription.

Upgrade Subscription - S/SP to Gold - Offer Box

SPRING SALE: Use code SSGFTW895 and save $600 on the first year of a Gold subscription!

Subscribe Now - FT to Gold - Offer Box

SUBSCRIBE AND SAVE

Monthly publication providing an editorial deep dive into global supply chain news

Journal of Commerce Magazine - Rectangle Box

Journal of Commerce Magazine

A premium access index of savings using domestic intermodal vs. OTR 

ISI Report - Rectangle Box

Intermodal Savings Index

An in-depth analysis of transport trends in the multipurpose and heavy-lift fleet segment

Breakbulk Report - Rectangle Box

Breakbulk Quarterly

An extensive dashboard of charts organized by trade lane, mode, and topic

Gateway - Rectangle Box

Gateway

Customers scoring their intermodal partners to identify the best service providers

Intermodal Service Scorecard - Rectangle Box

Intermodal Service Scorecard

A premium access outlook critical to shippers and transportation providers

QI Report - Rectangle Box

Quarterly Intelligence

The Journal of Commerce is the industry’s source for maritime news and analysis about ocean container shipping, logistics, supply chains, global shipping ports, shipping technology solutions and end-to-end connectivity. Coverage tracks the movement of containerized cargo — from origin to destination — handled by marine terminals in the US and abroad, depots, container ports, container lines, drayage, consignees and shippers, forwarders, non-vessel operating common carriers (NVOs) and off-dock warehousing providers, as well as pricing, capacity, volume and reliability on the trans-Pacific, Asia–Europe, North America–Caribbean, Central and South American and intra-Asia trades.

Discover comprehensive trucking news and trends with Journal of Commerce - from trucking LTL to regulation and trucking supply and demand.

Breakbulk News shipping | Journal of Commerce

Container shipping news and analysis of ocean container shipping, logistics, supply chains, technology and end-to-end connectivity.

Container Shipping News | Journal of Commerce

Stay informed on port news worldwide with Journal of Commerce. From decarbonization to labor updates, get insights on global developments.

Port News | Journal of Commerce

News and analysis of ocean containerized cargo movement, logistics, supply chains, technology, and end-to-end connectivity. Maritime news and analysis of containerized ocean cargo movement, breakbulk and roll-on and roll-off shipping from origin to destination.

Latest News

More News & Analysis

Customs designation triggers QSL terminal project in Quebec City

US truckload rate hikes to grow more aggressive: Knight-Swift

Landside infrastructure is container shipping’s next great chokepoint