<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">At 2019’s outset, adequate global growth and demand bode well for project logistics, but potential pitfalls also exist.</div>

At 2019’s outset, adequate global growth and demand bode well for project logistics, but potential pitfalls also exist.

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<div>Rising oil prices and a robust liquefied natural gas (LNG) and petrochemical construction market will continue to be good news for the project logistics transportation industry through 2019. The multipurpose/heavy-lift (MPV/HL) fleet, in no hurry to add new capacity, finally is seeing freight rates inch higher. But oil price volatility, the US-China trade dispute, and the looming disruption of <a>the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO's) 2020 low-sulfur fuel mandate</a> could slam on the brakes.First, the good news: the energy and chemicals sector is in growth mode — including for refining, petrochemicals, gas, and LNG — and should last into the early...

Rising oil prices and a robust liquefied natural gas (LNG) and petrochemical construction market will continue to be good news for the project logistics transportation industry through 2019. The multipurpose/heavy-lift (MPV/HL) fleet, in no hurry to add new capacity, finally is seeing freight rates inch higher. But oil price volatility, the US-China trade dispute, and the looming disruption of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO's) 2020 low-sulfur fuel mandate could slam on the brakes. First, the good news: the energy and chemicals sector is in growth mode — including for refining, petrochemicals, gas, and LNG — and should last into the early 2020s. David Seaton, CEO of global engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) company Fluor, made remarks to this effect during a 2018 earnings call, and Bechtel, Linde, Sinopec, TechnipFMC, Daewoo, and similar global EPCs are also optimistic. Reinforcing that sentiment, the American Chemistry Council reports that between 2010 and September 2018, 333 shale-fed petrochemical projects were announced in the United States, valued at $202 billion. Of these, 22 percent are under construction, 41 percent planned, 6 percent delayed or unknown, and the remainder completed. Since September, another US Gulf Coast petrochemical project worth $1.7 billion has been added to the roster, according to Chemical Week, a sister publication of JOC.com. On the oil and gas side, analysts expect the top seven international oil companies to spend $136 billion in capital projects by 2020, according to The Wall Street Journal. Underpinning this healthy market is faith in an oil price strong enough to justify capital investment. IHS Markit expects oil prices to increase through 2019 and then decline to roughly $70 per barrel (in 2017 dollars) through the early 2020s. However, the price of dated Brent, a North Sea crude oil blend used as a global benchmark, surprised markets by bouncing between $85 and $61 per barrel through October and November, likely because of exemptions to Iran export sanctions, oversupply within OPEC, and slowing demand. Brent traded at about $63 per barrel Monday. Potential pitfalls No one likes to be reminded of late 2015 and early 2016, when oil prices plunged as low as $28 per barrel, freezing the EPC sector in its tracks and dealing a crippling blow to project cargo transportation, at that point just recovering from the global recession. IHS Markit doesn’t expect oil prices to bottom out in the same way now: $70 per barrel is considered sustainable, allowing EPCs to continue to invest in capital projects that drive transportation. The 2015 to 2016 price plunge forced oil majors and project developers to manage project costs, including transportation, and they’re not letting these lessons fade, regardless of price recovery. Owners have become “much savvier,” according to a report from industry consultant PwC. More shippers now prefer to manage their own vessel chartering or work with project forwarders directly, rather than through EPCs, for example. As transportation is unbundled, however, project owners also bear more logistics risk. For all shippers, educating non-logistics colleagues about moving project cargo can be a challenge. They often “don’t understand the difference between ordering from Amazon and shipping a reactor from China,” one seasoned project shipper said. The Section 232 ( steel ) and 301 ( China ) tariffs also are complicating the importation of breakbulk and project cargo. Every transaction “requires so much more diligence,” an EPC’s compliance expert said. “It’s become very difficult to conduct business.” Although tariffs and quotas have always been part of global business, the new regime is unusually challenging. EPCs have made substantial investments in Chinese fabrication yards — with the goal of containing costs and increasing efficiency — import modules, pieces, and materials to build mega-projects such as the petrochemical plants and LNG facilities going up in the US. Many US-based industrial manufacturers also rely on Chinese components. These project shippers are facing difficult choices. The advantages China provides will keep some manufacturing and sourcing there despite rising costs, but a few shippers told JOC.com that they are considering moving their manufacturing facilities and/or sourcing to Southeast Asia or Mexico . Once supply chains are remade, they are unlikely to revert, even if the current tariffs are modified. China is also the primary target customer for the resins and LNG to be produced by the massive projects under way on the US Gulf Coast. The American Chemistry Council warns that China’s retaliatory tariffs may put these projects at risk, depending on China’s ability to find substitute suppliers. IHS Markit analysts expect US steel prices to remain soft, although higher than they were before the new tariffs were imposed last summer, well into 2019. Imports are still cheaper than domestically produced steel. According to The Wall Street Journal, US steel imports are down 13 percent, while imports into Europe were up 10 percent, hammering domestic production there. Turkish steel, cheap due to the foundering lira, is undercutting European competition. Multipurpose/heavy-lift fleet As the market brightens, consolidation is likely to continue at the premium end of the MPV/HL fleet, the ships likely to be in demand for the most complex mega-projects. The sector makes up a small slice of the commercial fleet, about 3,200 ships. Of that, about 900 have lift capacities of 100 tons or more, according to Susan Oatway, senior analyst with London-based shipping consultant Drewry Maritime Research. Approximately 340 are considered premium, with lift capacities exceeding 250 tons, while 25 can lift more than 1,000 tons. Only two new vessels appear to have been ordered during 2018, according to Drewry, a sign of chronic overcapacity, long-term weakness in the market, and ongoing competition for breakbulk and project cargo from the roll-on, roll-off and container sectors. This competition could strengthen if liner services prove more adept at handling bunker cost increases due to IMO 2020, the new regulation that kicks in on Jan. 1, 2020, requiring all vessels to switch from high- to low-sulfur fuel oil. The deadweight tonnage of the MPV/HL fleet has remained fairly stable over the past few years, with older, smaller vessels being demolished and replaced by fewer new vessels of higher tonnage and lift capacity. Drewry expects this pattern to continue in the near term, especially as IMO 2020 approaches. Owners of smaller, older, less-efficient vessels won’t have many options after the new regulations are in place. The MPV/HL fleet provides tramp services globally, and the new low-sulfur fuel regulations will present unique challenges for the sector. Netherlands-based carrier partners Spliethoff and Big Lift are installing scrubbers, a choice that makes sense for owner-operators but not for vessel owners that charter out their ships, according to Nicolas Breiding, head of research at Hamburg-based brokerage Toepfer Transport. For them, “it’s hard to make a case for installing a $2 million-plus scrubber, because it’s the operator who saves money on bunkers, not the vessel owner who is paying for the scrubber,” he said. Some operators could choose to rely on marine gasoil (MGO), at least temporarily. Although potentially costlier than low-sulfur fuel, this choice would greatly reduce the risk of bad bunkers, already a multimillion-dollar problem for many, including Leer, Germany-based MPV/HL carrier BBC Chartering. MGO is readily available, it burns efficiently, and carriers already are required to use it in emission control areas (ECAs). The risk reduction could justify the higher cost. Contact Janet Nodar at janet.nodar@ihsmarkit.com and follow her on Twitter: @janet_nodar .

Breakbulk News

Logistics Technology News

Project logistics rides high on oil, construction

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Industrial action by auxiliary workers in Rotterdam and Antwerp-Bruges is heavily disrupting operations in the regions two busiest container ports.</div>

Industrial action by auxiliary workers in Rotterdam and Antwerp-Bruges is heavily disrupting operations in the regions two busiest container ports.

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<div class="phx-topic">Strike action continues to disrupt operations at Europe’s two busiest container hubs, Rotterdam and Antwerp-Bruges, resulting in reduced handling capacity and backlogs that could take weeks to clear. If container lashing companies and FNV Havens union in Rotterdam fail to reach an agreement over working conditions and wages by Friday morning, workers critical to handling operations will resume strike action that has been suspended since the weekend following a court ruling. The 48-hour strike by 700 lashers last week has left Rotterdam already facing a backlog of 19 vessels, 11 of them deep-sea ships, that a spokesperson for the port said would take “several weeks” to clear even without further strike action. “Tonight, we will know if the lashers have reached an agreement with their employers. If not, the strike will resume tomorrow (Friday) at 7 am,” the spokesperson told the Journal of Commerce. A broad delegation from the logistics sector asked a Dutch court last Saturday to prohibit or limit the strike by the lashers because of “major social consequences.” It was agreed that the lashers would return to work on Monday, but strikes would resume Friday if no agreement was reached between the lashing workers and their employers. While Rotterdam noted in a statement following the court ruling that although the four-day solution was “not ideal,” it would allow essential goods to enter the Netherlands. “The aim was and is to protect the interests of the logistics sector and society from the far-reaching consequences of the strike,” the port statement noted. “We remain of the opinion that the action is currently causing disproportionate damage and putting serious pressure on security of supply.” The dispute has impacted all of the major container terminals in Rotterdam: APM Terminals Maasvlakte II, Hutchinson Ports Delta II, ECT Delta and Rotterdam World Gateway. <h3>Pilots in ‘maximum rest’ action </h3>In Antwerp, a “maximum rest” slowdown by sea pilots in the BVL union has left the logistics chain to and from the port operating at 70% of normal capacity, officials said in a “crisis” update Thursday. Flemish pilots have been protesting federal pension reforms since Oct. 5, with the port disruption exacerbated by a national general workers strike in Belgium on Tuesday this week. The industrial action has caused significant congestion on the Scheldt River that provides deep-sea access to Antwerp’s container terminals, affecting 60 outbound and 128 inbound vessels, according to the port. “The [strike] actions are expected to continue until Sunday ... clearing the backlog caused by the various actions will take several more days,” Antwerp-Bruges said in its latest update. A spokesperson for Hapag-Lloyd said the carrier was “closely monitoring the evolving strike actions” at both ports. “In Rotterdam, lashing operations remain unstable and further industrial action is anticipated should negotiations fail by Friday, Oct. 17,” the spokesperson told the Journal of Commerce. “In Belgium, the consequences of the general strike and ongoing pilot actions continue to impact vessel movements and port accessibility. At the moment, we are seeing delays of some hours to three days of our services across affected terminals.” Kuehne + Nagel’s SeaExplorer visibility platform has described operations at both Rotterdam and Antwerp-Bruges as “heavily disrupted.” The strike action is doing nothing positive for overall Asia-Europe schedule reliability that continues to present shippers with the worst on-time performance among the major ocean corridors. In September, on-time vessel performance of 23% was a slight improvement on the 17% recorded in August, according to industry analyst Xeneta. Contact <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Strike action continues to disrupt operations at Europe’s two busiest container hubs, Rotterdam and Antwerp-Bruges, resulting in reduced handling capacity and backlogs that could take weeks to clear. If container lashing companies and FNV Havens union in Rotterdam fail to reach an agreement over working conditions and wages by Friday morning, workers critical to handling operations will resume strike action that has been suspended since the weekend following a court ruling. The 48-hour strike by 700 lashers last week has left Rotterdam already facing a backlog of 19 vessels, 11 of them deep-sea ships, that a spokesperson for the port said would take “several weeks” to clear even without further strike action. “Tonight, we will know if the lashers have reached an agreement with their employers. If not, the strike will resume tomorrow (Friday) at 7 am,” the spokesperson told the Journal of Commerce. A broad delegation from the logistics sector asked a Dutch court last Saturday to prohibit or limit the strike by the lashers because of “major social consequences.” It was agreed that the lashers would return to work on Monday, but strikes would resume Friday if no agreement was reached between the lashing workers and their employers. While Rotterdam noted in a statement following the court ruling that although the four-day solution was “not ideal,” it would allow essential goods to enter the Netherlands. “The aim was and is to protect the interests of the logistics sector and society from the far-reaching consequences of the strike,” the port statement noted. “We remain of the opinion that the action is currently causing disproportionate damage and putting serious pressure on security of supply.” The dispute has impacted all of the major container terminals in Rotterdam: APM Terminals Maasvlakte II, Hutchinson Ports Delta II, ECT Delta and Rotterdam World Gateway. Pilots in ‘maximum rest’ action In Antwerp, a “maximum rest” slowdown by sea pilots in the BVL union has left the logistics chain to and from the port operating at 70% of normal capacity, officials said in a “crisis” update Thursday. Flemish pilots have been protesting federal pension reforms since Oct. 5, with the port disruption exacerbated by a national general workers strike in Belgium on Tuesday this week. The industrial action has caused significant congestion on the Scheldt River that provides deep-sea access to Antwerp’s container terminals, affecting 60 outbound and 128 inbound vessels, according to the port. “The [strike] actions are expected to continue until Sunday ... clearing the backlog caused by the various actions will take several more days,” Antwerp-Bruges said in its latest update. A spokesperson for Hapag-Lloyd said the carrier was “closely monitoring the evolving strike actions” at both ports. “In Rotterdam, lashing operations remain unstable and further industrial action is anticipated should negotiations fail by Friday, Oct. 17,” the spokesperson told the Journal of Commerce. “In Belgium, the consequences of the general strike and ongoing pilot actions continue to impact vessel movements and port accessibility. At the moment, we are seeing delays of some hours to three days of our services across affected terminals.” Kuehne + Nagel’s SeaExplorer visibility platform has described operations at both Rotterdam and Antwerp-Bruges as “heavily disrupted.” The strike action is doing nothing positive for overall Asia-Europe schedule reliability that continues to present shippers with the worst on-time performance among the major ocean corridors. In September, on-time vessel performance of 23% was a slight improvement on the 17% recorded in August, according to industry analyst Xeneta. Contact greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Port News

International ports

Maritime

Growing box backlogs at Europe’s strike-hit hubs could take weeks to clear

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Seasonal demand is believed to fuel most of the moderate pricing gains, with the impact of a driver licensing crackdown perhaps affecting outbound lanes from Southern California.</div>

Seasonal demand is believed to fuel most of the moderate pricing gains, with the impact of a driver licensing crackdown perhaps affecting outbound lanes from Southern California.

<div class="phx-topic">Freight imbalances and changes in capacity in certain lanes are tightening US truckload capacity, but not by much. Lower import volumes and a crackdown on illegal drivers have combined with seasonal peak demand to push spot pricing higher in some lanes, but most measures of dry-van truckload spot pricing have changed little since August. Transactional truckload pricing is rising but “it’s not a paradigm shift by any means,” said Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain for ITS Logistics. “It’s still a soft market, but we’ve seen cancellations increase and rates per mile nudge up,” Brashier said. “Is this something that changes the market post-peak? That’s still to be determined.” Over the course of 2025, several events, including the Fourth of July holiday and nationwide roadside truck and driver inspections, have led to <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ltl-truckload-pricing-rising-despite-soft-demand-6079263">short-term surges</a> in spot truckload pricing, but rates <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-truckload-market-mired-in-malaise-as-import-surge-wanes-6075566">have fallen back</a> after those events. There’s no clear evidence of either a demand catalyst or a supply chokepoint that would change that pattern. Truckload rates typically increase during the fourth-quarter peak. Last year, the US average dry-van rate from DAT Freight &amp; Analytics rose from $1.61 per mile on Sept. 15 to $1.84 per mile on Jan. 5, 2025, before dropping back to $1.60 per mile by April 13. Indications are that spot rates are on a similar seasonal trajectory at the start of the fourth quarter. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="140c93da-33a2-4f0a-8ecf-304f1b6fd739"></dynamic-object></div>The US average dry-van linehaul rate for the week ended Oct. 11 was $1.70 per mile, flat with the previous week and up 6 cents from a year ago, according to DAT Freight &amp; Analytics. Dry-van rates at Truckstop.com were more volatile, with the US average falling more than 4 cents to $1.93 per mile after rising nearly 7 cents the previous week. <h3>Other factors moving market </h3>Truckload rates are inching upward despite weak demand, which suggests other factors are inflating rates, DAT Chief of Analytics Ken Adamo said in a statement. “Freight imbalances and changes in available capacity drove rates higher in certain markets, as opposed to volumes,” Adamo said. <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/lower-us-imports-tightening-truck-capacity-at-key-inland-hubs-6094920">Lower import volumes</a> may be part of the mix. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, a measure of pricing, rose 1.7% in September from August and was up 2.6% from a year ago. The index is down 1% from two years ago, however. The US long-distance truckload producer price index in August was nearly flat year over year. The September report has been delayed by the US government shutdown. Shippers contacted by the Journal of Commerce expect contract rates for 2025 to range from flat to higher by low single-digit percentages year over year. Like most analysts, they see little that would shift freight demand and truckload pricing into higher gear. Within trucking, there's continuous debate over what might be the next supply shock. Predictions that the exit of thousands of small trucking firms would tighten capacity and flip the market have fallen flat. In 2025, more transportation analysts and trucking executives have talked about a developing “equilibrium” in the truckload market, a balance between supply and demand that could be upset by relatively small changes. “We’re setting up for increased vulnerability in the market next year,” David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence for Arrive Logistics, told the Journal of Commerce. “It’s really next year when we start to see other forces (beyond seasonality) begin to have an impact,” he added, referring in part to a crackdown on drivers in the US illegally. <h3>ELP impact </h3>That crackdown on non-English-speaking truck drivers and those working in the US illegally with non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) is highlighted by nearly every analyst or executive speaking on the outlook for the trucking market. However, the impact of that crackdown, which <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-dot-presses-states-to-enforce-english-language-trucking-rules-6069884">began in June</a>, on the overall market has been negligible. As of Sept. 26, out-of-service (OOS) orders had been issued for 5,006 out of 12,055 violations issued to drivers year-to-date for failing to meet English-language proficiency (ELP) standards, according to the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA). In comparison, about 31,000 OOS orders were issued for driving without a valid CDL. The total number of OOS orders issued during roadside inspections for all types of driver violations to date in 2025 is 202,257. State officials have issued 873,977 violations. Since June, the FMCSA has viewed an ELP violation as an out-of-service violation, except for drivers operating within the commercial zone along the US-Mexico border. The Department of Transportation (DOT) has been investigating state issuance of non-domiciled CDLs and <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/usdot-cracks-down-on-non-domiciled-cdls-targets-california-6087419">intensified a crackdown</a> on those licenses in September. Although estimates of the number of drivers who could be disqualified by the crackdown on licensing and English-language skills range as high as 200,000 or more, exact numbers for unqualified, illegal or non-English-speaking drivers are, not surprisingly, hard to come by. Enforcement to date has not had a direct impact on the overall market. The crackdown may be having an impact in specific lanes, notably outbound lanes from Southern California and westbound lanes from crossing points along the US-Mexico border. “You might be seeing an impact in some of the markets that have a higher propensity for non-domiciled drivers,” ITS’s Brashier said, noting California in particular. Brashier said ITS has seen capacity tighten in long-haul lanes – those more than 500 miles – while short-haul capacity has been more readily available. “We’re having no problem (finding capacity) in intra-Texas lanes,” he said. But that could reflect existing trends toward more regional freight, rather than a loss of non-domiciled CDL drivers. Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto://bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a></div>

Freight imbalances and changes in capacity in certain lanes are tightening US truckload capacity, but not by much. Lower import volumes and a crackdown on illegal drivers have combined with seasonal peak demand to push spot pricing higher in some lanes, but most measures of dry-van truckload spot pricing have changed little since August. Transactional truckload pricing is rising but “it’s not a paradigm shift by any means,” said Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain for ITS Logistics. “It’s still a soft market, but we’ve seen cancellations increase and rates per mile nudge up,” Brashier said. “Is this something that changes the market post-peak? That’s still to be determined.” Over the course of 2025, several events, including the Fourth of July holiday and nationwide roadside truck and driver inspections, have led to short-term surges in spot truckload pricing, but rates have fallen back after those events. There’s no clear evidence of either a demand catalyst or a supply chokepoint that would change that pattern. Truckload rates typically increase during the fourth-quarter peak. Last year, the US average dry-van rate from DAT Freight & Analytics rose from $1.61 per mile on Sept. 15 to $1.84 per mile on Jan. 5, 2025, before dropping back to $1.60 per mile by April 13. Indications are that spot rates are on a similar seasonal trajectory at the start of the fourth quarter. The US average dry-van linehaul rate for the week ended Oct. 11 was $1.70 per mile, flat with the previous week and up 6 cents from a year ago, according to DAT Freight & Analytics. Dry-van rates at Truckstop.com were more volatile, with the US average falling more than 4 cents to $1.93 per mile after rising nearly 7 cents the previous week. Other factors moving market Truckload rates are inching upward despite weak demand, which suggests other factors are inflating rates, DAT Chief of Analytics Ken Adamo said in a statement. “Freight imbalances and changes in available capacity drove rates higher in certain markets, as opposed to volumes,” Adamo said. Lower import volumes may be part of the mix. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, a measure of pricing, rose 1.7% in September from August and was up 2.6% from a year ago. The index is down 1% from two years ago, however. The US long-distance truckload producer price index in August was nearly flat year over year. The September report has been delayed by the US government shutdown. Shippers contacted by the Journal of Commerce expect contract rates for 2025 to range from flat to higher by low single-digit percentages year over year. Like most analysts, they see little that would shift freight demand and truckload pricing into higher gear. Within trucking, there's continuous debate over what might be the next supply shock. Predictions that the exit of thousands of small trucking firms would tighten capacity and flip the market have fallen flat. In 2025, more transportation analysts and trucking executives have talked about a developing “equilibrium” in the truckload market, a balance between supply and demand that could be upset by relatively small changes. “We’re setting up for increased vulnerability in the market next year,” David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence for Arrive Logistics, told the Journal of Commerce. “It’s really next year when we start to see other forces (beyond seasonality) begin to have an impact,” he added, referring in part to a crackdown on drivers in the US illegally. ELP impact That crackdown on non-English-speaking truck drivers and those working in the US illegally with non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) is highlighted by nearly every analyst or executive speaking on the outlook for the trucking market. However, the impact of that crackdown, which began in June , on the overall market has been negligible. As of Sept. 26, out-of-service (OOS) orders had been issued for 5,006 out of 12,055 violations issued to drivers year-to-date for failing to meet English-language proficiency (ELP) standards, according to the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA). In comparison, about 31,000 OOS orders were issued for driving without a valid CDL. The total number of OOS orders issued during roadside inspections for all types of driver violations to date in 2025 is 202,257. State officials have issued 873,977 violations. Since June, the FMCSA has viewed an ELP violation as an out-of-service violation, except for drivers operating within the commercial zone along the US-Mexico border. The Department of Transportation (DOT) has been investigating state issuance of non-domiciled CDLs and intensified a crackdown on those licenses in September. Although estimates of the number of drivers who could be disqualified by the crackdown on licensing and English-language skills range as high as 200,000 or more, exact numbers for unqualified, illegal or non-English-speaking drivers are, not surprisingly, hard to come by. Enforcement to date has not had a direct impact on the overall market. The crackdown may be having an impact in specific lanes, notably outbound lanes from Southern California and westbound lanes from crossing points along the US-Mexico border. “You might be seeing an impact in some of the markets that have a higher propensity for non-domiciled drivers,” ITS’s Brashier said, noting California in particular. Brashier said ITS has seen capacity tighten in long-haul lanes – those more than 500 miles – while short-haul capacity has been more readily available. “We’re having no problem (finding capacity) in intra-Texas lanes,” he said. But that could reflect existing trends toward more regional freight, rather than a loss of non-domiciled CDL drivers. Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com

Trucking News

Truckload

Surface

US truckload pricing inches higher as trucking’s peak beckons

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">But forwarders say the effort by liners to end a four-month decline in rates may lose steam after a week or so given generally weak market fundamentals. </div>

But forwarders say the effort by liners to end a four-month decline in rates may lose steam after a week or so given generally weak market fundamentals.

<div class="phx-topic">Spot rates on the eastbound trans-Pacific have jumped by about $700 to the US West Coast this week with retailers stepping up their purchase orders for the fourth quarter now that factories in Asia have reopened following the Golden Week and Autumn festivals, market sources say. But forwarders say the effort to end a four-month decline in container spot rates may stumble, and carriers have few other options. The gains came via a general rate increase (GRI) carriers implemented Wednesday, with prices rising to about $2,000 per FEU for West Coast business from $1,300 per FEU last week. Multiple forwarders and a carrier source told the Journal of Commerce that carriers are getting the higher rates from customers. “Bookings are stronger than anticipated after the Autumn Festival,” one forwarder said. “In general, the market is showing some resilience.” Business to the US East Coast was pegged at $3,050 to $3,100 per FEU, up from $2,300. Still, carriers and forwarders expect this week’s GRIs, such as the price hike made on Sept. 1, to deteriorate after a week to 10 days, likely to be followed by additional GRI attempts on Nov. 1 and Nov. 15. “This could be deja vu from Sept. 1,” said Chris Sur, vice president/ocean of freight contract logistics at the forwarder Unique Logistics International. Helping to support the trans-Pacific market at the moment is the fact that vessel capacity has been reduced amid multiple blank sailings and some suspended weekly services due to weakened import demand in August and September. Yet another factor influencing retailers’ ordering behavior this fall has been tariff uncertainties amid the Trump administration’s shifting trade policies for individual countries. This will play out for the remainder of the fourth quarter, said Jon Monroe, who serves as an adviser to forwarders. “Nobody knows what to expect from Trump,” he said. “Everyone is rushing now to get their orders out by the end of the year.” <h3>Inventory restocking, spring imports coming next </h3>Retailers, especially the big box stores, are beginning to focus now on re-stocking their inventories and placing their spring orders, said Robert Khachatryan, CEO of the forwarder FreightRight Global Logistics. “We could see increased orders in November and December,” he said. The traditional peak season shipping patterns this year were disrupted by the constantly changing US tariff announcements. July was the peak month for US imports from Asia; normally, imports of holiday merchandise remain strong from August through October. US imports from Asia in July totaled 1.81 million TEUs, dropping to 1.75 million TEUs in August and 1.58 million TEUs in September, according to PIERS, a Journal of Commerce sister product within S&amp;P Global. Carriers have already filed their 30-day notice in advance of proposed GRIs for Nov. 1 and Nov. 15, so further rate hikes, albeit short-lived, can be expected as liners attempt to set a floor under spot rates, a carrier executive told the Journal of Commerce. “Rates had gotten too low. This behavior is nothing new,” the source said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Spot rates on the eastbound trans-Pacific have jumped by about $700 to the US West Coast this week with retailers stepping up their purchase orders for the fourth quarter now that factories in Asia have reopened following the Golden Week and Autumn festivals, market sources say. But forwarders say the effort to end a four-month decline in container spot rates may stumble, and carriers have few other options. The gains came via a general rate increase (GRI) carriers implemented Wednesday, with prices rising to about $2,000 per FEU for West Coast business from $1,300 per FEU last week. Multiple forwarders and a carrier source told the Journal of Commerce that carriers are getting the higher rates from customers. “Bookings are stronger than anticipated after the Autumn Festival,” one forwarder said. “In general, the market is showing some resilience.” Business to the US East Coast was pegged at $3,050 to $3,100 per FEU, up from $2,300. Still, carriers and forwarders expect this week’s GRIs, such as the price hike made on Sept. 1, to deteriorate after a week to 10 days, likely to be followed by additional GRI attempts on Nov. 1 and Nov. 15. “This could be deja vu from Sept. 1,” said Chris Sur, vice president/ocean of freight contract logistics at the forwarder Unique Logistics International. Helping to support the trans-Pacific market at the moment is the fact that vessel capacity has been reduced amid multiple blank sailings and some suspended weekly services due to weakened import demand in August and September. Yet another factor influencing retailers’ ordering behavior this fall has been tariff uncertainties amid the Trump administration’s shifting trade policies for individual countries. This will play out for the remainder of the fourth quarter, said Jon Monroe, who serves as an adviser to forwarders. “Nobody knows what to expect from Trump,” he said. “Everyone is rushing now to get their orders out by the end of the year.” Inventory restocking, spring imports coming next Retailers, especially the big box stores, are beginning to focus now on re-stocking their inventories and placing their spring orders, said Robert Khachatryan, CEO of the forwarder FreightRight Global Logistics. “We could see increased orders in November and December,” he said. The traditional peak season shipping patterns this year were disrupted by the constantly changing US tariff announcements. July was the peak month for US imports from Asia; normally, imports of holiday merchandise remain strong from August through October. US imports from Asia in July totaled 1.81 million TEUs, dropping to 1.75 million TEUs in August and 1.58 million TEUs in September, according to PIERS, a Journal of Commerce sister product within S&P Global. Carriers have already filed their 30-day notice in advance of proposed GRIs for Nov. 1 and Nov. 15, so further rate hikes, albeit short-lived, can be expected as liners attempt to set a floor under spot rates, a carrier executive told the Journal of Commerce. “Rates had gotten too low. This behavior is nothing new,” the source said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .

Forwarding

Trans-Pacific

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Spot rates in eastbound trans-Pacific pop after carriers set new GRIs

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">China’s new port fees on non-China-made vessels that are US-flagged or owned or controlled by US companies are forcing the Gemini Cooperation partners to transship via South Korea to avoid the multimillion-dollar hit. </div>

China’s new port fees on non-China-made vessels that are US-flagged or owned or controlled by US companies are forcing the Gemini Cooperation partners to transship via South Korea to avoid the multimillion-dollar hit.

<div class="phx-topic">The Gemini Cooperation diverted two US-flag vessels in a trans-Pacific service away from China due to that country’s retaliatory port fees, with one of the alliance partners warning of a multimillion-dollar hit that carriers face on US-flag ships because of the fees. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd advised customers on Tuesday that two US-flag ships in their jointly-operated TP7/WC5 service will no longer call Ningbo. This week’s voyage of Hapag-Lloyd’s Potomac Express will discharge westbound cargo for China in Busan, South Korea, and then be transshipped on another ship. The Denmark-flagged Maersk Luz will carry outbound freight from Ningbo to South Korea’s Kwangyang port, which will then be loaded on the Potomac Express. Next week’s voyage of the Maersk Kinloss will also discharge westbound China cargo in South Korea for transshipment on an unidentified ship, with eastbound cargo from Ningbo being shipped on a Gemini shuttle ship. The service switch-up comes as <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/china-returns-fire-with-retaliatory-port-fees-targeting-us-affiliated-ships-6095198">China’s recently unveiled port fees on US-flag ships</a> went into effect on Oct. 14, the same day as similar US port fees took effect on Chinese-built ships and carriers. While China has exempted US-flag ships built in China from the fees, both of Gemini’s affected ships were built in South Korea. China plans to charge US-flag, non-Chinese vessels $56 per net ton, approximately similar to what the US is levying. Based on their net tonnage, each of the Gemini ships would incur a $2.5 million charge. <h3>Hapag-Lloyd looks to adjust </h3>Stuart Sandlin, Hapag-Lloyd’s North American president, said Wednesday at the Virginia Maritime Association trade conference in Norfolk that the carrier’s five US-flagged, South Korean-built ships would face a total of $125 million in Chinese port fees annually. The US-flag international fleet can also carry commercial cargo to and from China, in addition to any government or military cargo for other Asian countries. Sandlin said Hapag-Lloyd is now looking at how to split up that business to avoid the fees. “We have a US-flag group, and we have a non-US-flag group, and that makes it a lot more difficult because of the current geopolitical situation,” he said. “We’re working to see how we actually manage through that.” There are currently 57 ships in the US-flag international fleet, according to Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Those US-flag ships made 163 calls globally year to date. The US-flag Matson Waikiki, which called Shanghai on Tuesday, faces a $1.7 million fee. Among US-flag carriers, CMA CGM’s APL division runs the only fleet solely built in China. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The Gemini Cooperation diverted two US-flag vessels in a trans-Pacific service away from China due to that country’s retaliatory port fees, with one of the alliance partners warning of a multimillion-dollar hit that carriers face on US-flag ships because of the fees. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd advised customers on Tuesday that two US-flag ships in their jointly-operated TP7/WC5 service will no longer call Ningbo. This week’s voyage of Hapag-Lloyd’s Potomac Express will discharge westbound cargo for China in Busan, South Korea, and then be transshipped on another ship. The Denmark-flagged Maersk Luz will carry outbound freight from Ningbo to South Korea’s Kwangyang port, which will then be loaded on the Potomac Express. Next week’s voyage of the Maersk Kinloss will also discharge westbound China cargo in South Korea for transshipment on an unidentified ship, with eastbound cargo from Ningbo being shipped on a Gemini shuttle ship. The service switch-up comes as China’s recently unveiled port fees on US-flag ships went into effect on Oct. 14, the same day as similar US port fees took effect on Chinese-built ships and carriers. While China has exempted US-flag ships built in China from the fees, both of Gemini’s affected ships were built in South Korea. China plans to charge US-flag, non-Chinese vessels $56 per net ton, approximately similar to what the US is levying. Based on their net tonnage, each of the Gemini ships would incur a $2.5 million charge. Hapag-Lloyd looks to adjust Stuart Sandlin, Hapag-Lloyd’s North American president, said Wednesday at the Virginia Maritime Association trade conference in Norfolk that the carrier’s five US-flagged, South Korean-built ships would face a total of $125 million in Chinese port fees annually. The US-flag international fleet can also carry commercial cargo to and from China, in addition to any government or military cargo for other Asian countries. Sandlin said Hapag-Lloyd is now looking at how to split up that business to avoid the fees. “We have a US-flag group, and we have a non-US-flag group, and that makes it a lot more difficult because of the current geopolitical situation,” he said. “We’re working to see how we actually manage through that.” There are currently 57 ships in the US-flag international fleet, according to Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Those US-flag ships made 163 calls globally year to date. The US-flag Matson Waikiki, which called Shanghai on Tuesday, faces a $1.7 million fee. Among US-flag carriers, CMA CGM’s APL division runs the only fleet solely built in China. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Container lines

China’s port fees forcing Gemini to shift out US-flag ships

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Trade professionals and shippers say US Customs and Border Protection is pursuing trade violations with historic vigor. </div>

Trade professionals and shippers say US Customs and Border Protection is pursuing trade violations with historic vigor.

<div class="phx-topic">Norfolk, Virginia — US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is ratcheting up scrutiny on importers through an uptick in queries about specific shipments, Eugene Laney, the president and CEO of the American Association of Exporters and Importers (AAEI), told the Virginia Maritime Association’s International Trade Symposium Wednesday. Laney said importers are facing a barrage of what are known as Customs Forms 28 (CF-28), which are requests for information issued by CBP. Those CF-28s can then lead to Customs Forms 29 (CF-29), which are notices of decisions that require importers to rectify a wide variety of infractions, including tariff misclassifications, valuation changes, country of origin determination, or free trade agreement eligibility. “Folks that have been in the customs business for many years have seen more 28s and 29s on a daily basis than ever, and this is alarming for companies,” Laney said. “They haven’t seen anything like this.” Laney said CBP’s enforcement has been rigorous, especially in terms of scrutinizing country of origin determinations, even at the raw material level. “They’re looking at everything,” he said. “They’re looking at the aluminum that’s on the cap of the toothpaste. They’re looking at the aluminum that’s in deodorant. You have all these companies that don’t even realize they’re in the aluminum and steel business. They’re now having to figure out how they need to hire [artificial intelligence] companies to help them figure out exactly what’s in their products.” <h3>Compliance burden </h3>Laney’s comments dovetail with recent comments from Gabrielle Griffith, director at trade advisory firm BPE Global. “It’s not just anecdotal,” Griffith said on the Oct. 10 episode of the Journal of Commerce’s TPM Today. “We have certainly seen an increase in our clients getting those requests for information — the CF-28s — from CBP.” Griffith said clients are often curious as to how CBP has seemingly expanded its capability to scrutinize shipments, as CF-28s create an administrative compliance burden they haven’t experienced, perhaps outside of the immediate aftermath of the Sept. 11 terror attacks. “What’s changed is the data analytics,” she said. “There has been quite an enhancement to the data analytics CBP is using to comb shipments to target investigations.” Importers have confirmed in recent weeks to the Journal of Commerce that the number of CF-28s has risen markedly, with most noting they are getting such notices regularly. “These enforcement actions have brought trade compliance professionals from being hidden in the company to now in the C-suite,” Laney said. “They’re actually meeting with the CEOs, meeting with boards, because boards are alarmed by these enforcement actions.” Contact Eric Johnson at <a href="mailto:eric.johnson@spglobal.com">eric.johnson@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Norfolk, Virginia — US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is ratcheting up scrutiny on importers through an uptick in queries about specific shipments, Eugene Laney, the president and CEO of the American Association of Exporters and Importers (AAEI), told the Virginia Maritime Association’s International Trade Symposium Wednesday. Laney said importers are facing a barrage of what are known as Customs Forms 28 (CF-28), which are requests for information issued by CBP. Those CF-28s can then lead to Customs Forms 29 (CF-29), which are notices of decisions that require importers to rectify a wide variety of infractions, including tariff misclassifications, valuation changes, country of origin determination, or free trade agreement eligibility. “Folks that have been in the customs business for many years have seen more 28s and 29s on a daily basis than ever, and this is alarming for companies,” Laney said. “They haven’t seen anything like this.” Laney said CBP’s enforcement has been rigorous, especially in terms of scrutinizing country of origin determinations, even at the raw material level. “They’re looking at everything,” he said. “They’re looking at the aluminum that’s on the cap of the toothpaste. They’re looking at the aluminum that’s in deodorant. You have all these companies that don’t even realize they’re in the aluminum and steel business. They’re now having to figure out how they need to hire [artificial intelligence] companies to help them figure out exactly what’s in their products.” Compliance burden Laney’s comments dovetail with recent comments from Gabrielle Griffith, director at trade advisory firm BPE Global. “It’s not just anecdotal,” Griffith said on the Oct. 10 episode of the Journal of Commerce’s TPM Today. “We have certainly seen an increase in our clients getting those requests for information — the CF-28s — from CBP.” Griffith said clients are often curious as to how CBP has seemingly expanded its capability to scrutinize shipments, as CF-28s create an administrative compliance burden they haven’t experienced, perhaps outside of the immediate aftermath of the Sept. 11 terror attacks. “What’s changed is the data analytics,” she said. “There has been quite an enhancement to the data analytics CBP is using to comb shipments to target investigations.” Importers have confirmed in recent weeks to the Journal of Commerce that the number of CF-28s has risen markedly, with most noting they are getting such notices regularly. “These enforcement actions have brought trade compliance professionals from being hidden in the company to now in the C-suite,” Laney said. “They’re actually meeting with the CEOs, meeting with boards, because boards are alarmed by these enforcement actions.” Contact Eric Johnson at eric.johnson@spglobal.com .

Supply chain

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Importers see major uptick in CBP requests for shipment information

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The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

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Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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