<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>A group of members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and independent oil nations </p></div>

A group of members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and independent oil nations

<div><p>A group of members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and independent oil nations declared Wednesday they had begun a new stage of cooperation to control oil prices, but they reached no specific accords, a cartel spokesman said.</p><p></p><p></p><p>Oil prices initially rallied on the New York Mercantile Exchange, but began falling off late in the session. West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, jumped 10 cents a barrel at the opening, and was up 17 cents at one point during the day.A wave of selling hit the market about an hour before the close, however, and trading ended with prices...

A group of members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and independent oil nations declared Wednesday they had begun a new stage of cooperation to control oil prices, but they reached no specific accords, a cartel spokesman said. Oil prices initially rallied on the New York Mercantile Exchange, but began falling off late in the session. West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, jumped 10 cents a barrel at the opening, and was up 17 cents at one point during the day.A wave of selling hit the market about an hour before the close, however, and trading ended with prices at $18.23 a barrel, down 37 cents. Before the meeting a number of non-OPEC producers, including China and Mexico, said they'd be willing to cut production if OPEC did, which firmed prices over the last two weeks. Having heard it, the market now tends to discount it, a trader in New York said. In London, Brent Blend, the key North Sea crude, closed at $17.50 a barrel, up 25 cents. WTI usually trades at a $1.50 premium to Persian Gulf OPEC crude to account for transportation differentials. Six OPEC and seven non-OPEC countries are meeting in Vienna, Austria, to consider collaborative action to shore up prices. The non-OPEC countries are Angola, China, Colombia Egypt, Malaysia, Mexico, and Oman. However, a number of important independent oil producers did not attend the meeting, including the Soviet Union, the world's largest with 12 million barrels a day of production. A short communique said the six OPEC members would present to the rest of the cartel today a proposal by the independent producers to cut overall oil exports by 5 percent for May and June. That would amount to an aggregate cut of 700,000 b/d for OPEC and 200,000 b/d for the seven non-OPEC countries. There was no immediate indication that the OPEC group either endorsed or rejected the proposal, which OPEC President and Nigerian oil minister Rilwanu Lukman earlier had called a good beginning for cooperation between oil producers. Iran, which was not involved in Wednesday's talks, declared its support for the export-cutting plan, but most other countries gave little indication of their views.

INDEPENDENTS, OPEC MEMBERS VOW COOPERATION

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>While the new delay — on products reliant on wood imports —provides a respite for importers of the affected goods, it prolongs for another year a period of uncertainty over how tariffs might impact the cost of what they sell.</p></div>

While the new delay — on products reliant on wood imports —provides a respite for importers of the affected goods, it prolongs for another year a period of uncertainty over how tariffs might impact the cost of what they sell.

Feature image

<div class="phx-topic"><p>The Trump administration’s decision to postpone a hefty, planned hike in tariffs on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/white-house-rolls-back-tariffs-on-broad-list-of-food-and-ag-imports-6116742">echoes a move in mid-November</a> by the White House to delay planned tariff increases on food and ag imports. </p><p>The most recent tariffs, on products reliant on wood imports, were due to increase Jan. 1 from the existing 25% to between 30% and 50%, depending on the product. </p><p>But those increases have been suspended for a year and now will go into effect Jan. 1, 2027, </p><p>due to “productive negotiations with trade partners” in addressing trade reciprocity and national security concerns, the Trump administration announced New Year’s Eve. The tariff rollback in November came less than two weeks after Democrats were overwhelmingly successful on Election Day, winning a number of key state and local races where affordability and the rising cost of every day products were key issues, with opponents of the Trump administration pinning the hikes on tariffs. </p><p>While the latest tariff delay provides a respite for importers of affected products in the furniture and cabinetry industries, it prolongs for another year a period of uncertainty over how tariffs might impact the cost of the goods they sell, trade associations in the furniture and home building industries said. </p><p>“With the nation facing a housing affordability crisis, [the National Association of Home Builders] continues to urge the president to exempt building materials as part of his tariff strategy because they raise construction costs, impede supply chains and place upward pressure on home prices,” the group said in a statement. </p><p><i>Contact Eric Johnson at </i><a href="mailto:eric.johnson@spglobal.com"><i>eric.johnson@spglobal.com.</i></a></p></div>

The Trump administration’s decision to postpone a hefty, planned hike in tariffs on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities echoes a move in mid-November by the White House to delay planned tariff increases on food and ag imports. The most recent tariffs, on products reliant on wood imports, were due to increase Jan. 1 from the existing 25% to between 30% and 50%, depending on the product. But those increases have been suspended for a year and now will go into effect Jan. 1, 2027, due to “productive negotiations with trade partners” in addressing trade reciprocity and national security concerns, the Trump administration announced New Year’s Eve. The tariff rollback in November came less than two weeks after Democrats were overwhelmingly successful on Election Day, winning a number of key state and local races where affordability and the rising cost of every day products were key issues, with opponents of the Trump administration pinning the hikes on tariffs. While the latest tariff delay provides a respite for importers of affected products in the furniture and cabinetry industries, it prolongs for another year a period of uncertainty over how tariffs might impact the cost of the goods they sell, trade associations in the furniture and home building industries said. “With the nation facing a housing affordability crisis, [the National Association of Home Builders] continues to urge the president to exempt building materials as part of his tariff strategy because they raise construction costs, impede supply chains and place upward pressure on home prices,” the group said in a statement. Contact Eric Johnson at eric.johnson@spglobal.com.

Maritime

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

Supply chain

Latest tariff delay by Trump echoes postponement from November

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>But tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper could present challenges for energy and data center construction projects.</p></div>

But tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper could present challenges for energy and data center construction projects.

<div class="phx-topic"><p><i>The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook.</i> </p><p><b>The big picture:</b> Key sources of maritime project cargo are in a state of flux, with US markets pulling back from renewable energy projects such as wind and solar and forging ahead with oil and gas. Meanwhile, the rapid rise of AI is driving the construction of data centers and semiconductor facilities, plus infrastructure to support their massive power and water demands. But these changes have been somewhat overshadowed by tariffs on imported steel, copper and other necessary components for these projects. </p><div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6144850_0.1.jpg"></img></div><p><b>A look back:</b> After declaring a national energy emergency upon taking office in January, US President Donald Trump unleashed rapid-fire executive orders shifting policies and funding to prioritize fossil fuels over renewable energy sources and bolster domestic mining and production. Infrastructure investments by US energy utilities, including traditional and renewable sources, were projected to reach $214.7 billion in 2025, a 24% increase from the previous year, according to a September report from S&amp;P Global Energy. The Trump administration took dramatic steps to direct that momentum toward fossil fuels, cutting nearly $8 billion in funding for clean energy projects, issuing directives aimed at deregulation and expanded leasing access, and permanently reinstating a 100% tax write-off for qualifying oil and gas assets. As a result, the development pipeline for US offshore wind contracted by more than half in 2025, falling from a planned 56 GW to 25.4 GW, according to a November report from the Energy Industries Council.  </p><p>To accelerate domestic mining, the administration fast-tracked the permitting process for more than two dozen mineral projects. And with nuclear power staging a comeback, Trump called for the construction of 10 large reactors to begin by 2030 and a quadrupling of domestic nuclear capacity to 400 GW by 2050. </p><p><b>A look ahead:</b> Global investments in the construction of data centers and related infrastructure to support AI technology — already on track to exceed $1.5 trillion by 2030, according to a projection from consultant McKinsey — are expected to ramp up this year. The US leads in data center capacity, accounting for over 40% of the global total, and is expected to increase its already sizable share over the next few years, according to S&amp;P Global 451 Research. Data centers will rely heavily on semiconductor chip production, which stands to benefit from legislation expanding the US federal tax credit for chip plant development to 35% from the 25% available under the 2022 US CHIPS and Science Act. </p><p>With data centers requiring massive amounts of power, liquefied natural gas and nuclear facilities are emerging as potential solutions. A multi-billion-dollar wave of LNG terminal construction in North America will continue apace, with Venture Global’s $28 billion CP2 LNG export project on the Gulf Coast of southwest Louisiana scheduled for completion by 2027. </p><div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="4ddbad16-8b85-4f54-986b-bb5abaa57f2b"></dynamic-object></div><p><b>The next inflection:</b> Tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper could present challenges for energy and data center construction projects. In the oil and gas industry, US tariffs on these materials — along with components such as drilling rigs, valves, compressors and specialized steel worth nearly $10 billion in 2024 — could increase material and service costs by 4% to 40%, according to a November report by Deloitte. For the US data center sector, “tariffs will raise the cost of key environmental control and power transformation equipment, which will further drive inflation for US-built equipment,” S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence said in a 2026 supply chain outlook. </p><p><i>Contact Autumn Cafiero Giusti at </i><a href="mailto:autumn@autumngiusti.com"><i>autumn@autumngiusti.com</i></a><i>.</i> </p></div>

The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook. The big picture: Key sources of maritime project cargo are in a state of flux, with US markets pulling back from renewable energy projects such as wind and solar and forging ahead with oil and gas. Meanwhile, the rapid rise of AI is driving the construction of data centers and semiconductor facilities, plus infrastructure to support their massive power and water demands. But these changes have been somewhat overshadowed by tariffs on imported steel, copper and other necessary components for these projects. A look back: After declaring a national energy emergency upon taking office in January, US President Donald Trump unleashed rapid-fire executive orders shifting policies and funding to prioritize fossil fuels over renewable energy sources and bolster domestic mining and production. Infrastructure investments by US energy utilities, including traditional and renewable sources, were projected to reach $214.7 billion in 2025, a 24% increase from the previous year, according to a September report from S&P Global Energy. The Trump administration took dramatic steps to direct that momentum toward fossil fuels, cutting nearly $8 billion in funding for clean energy projects, issuing directives aimed at deregulation and expanded leasing access, and permanently reinstating a 100% tax write-off for qualifying oil and gas assets. As a result, the development pipeline for US offshore wind contracted by more than half in 2025, falling from a planned 56 GW to 25.4 GW, according to a November report from the Energy Industries Council. To accelerate domestic mining, the administration fast-tracked the permitting process for more than two dozen mineral projects. And with nuclear power staging a comeback, Trump called for the construction of 10 large reactors to begin by 2030 and a quadrupling of domestic nuclear capacity to 400 GW by 2050. A look ahead: Global investments in the construction of data centers and related infrastructure to support AI technology — already on track to exceed $1.5 trillion by 2030, according to a projection from consultant McKinsey — are expected to ramp up this year. The US leads in data center capacity, accounting for over 40% of the global total, and is expected to increase its already sizable share over the next few years, according to S&P Global 451 Research. Data centers will rely heavily on semiconductor chip production, which stands to benefit from legislation expanding the US federal tax credit for chip plant development to 35% from the 25% available under the 2022 US CHIPS and Science Act. With data centers requiring massive amounts of power, liquefied natural gas and nuclear facilities are emerging as potential solutions. A multi-billion-dollar wave of LNG terminal construction in North America will continue apace, with Venture Global’s $28 billion CP2 LNG export project on the Gulf Coast of southwest Louisiana scheduled for completion by 2027. The next inflection: Tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper could present challenges for energy and data center construction projects. In the oil and gas industry, US tariffs on these materials — along with components such as drilling rigs, valves, compressors and specialized steel worth nearly $10 billion in 2024 — could increase material and service costs by 4% to 40%, according to a November report by Deloitte. For the US data center sector, “tariffs will raise the cost of key environmental control and power transformation equipment, which will further drive inflation for US-built equipment,” S&P Global Market Intelligence said in a 2026 supply chain outlook. Contact Autumn Cafiero Giusti at autumn@autumngiusti.com .

Energy projects

Project cargo

Breakbulk News

US energy policy overhaul, data center investments signal project cargo shift

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>MPV carriers confessed they were keeping a wary eye on the other sectors that traditionally compete with MPVs, with the container sector expected to cause the most angst heading into 2026.</p></div>

MPV carriers confessed they were keeping a wary eye on the other sectors that traditionally compete with MPVs, with the container sector expected to cause the most angst heading into 2026.

<div class="phx-topic"><p><i>The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook.</i> </p><p><b>The big picture:</b> Stability was the word of the day for the multipurpose vessel (MPV) sector in 2025, but pressure from competing fleets is likely to change that in 2026. Shippers unwilling — or unable — to ignore bargain basement rates from container lines will be tempted to divert breakbulk cargoes to container ships this year, potentially leaving MPVs scrambling for volumes. Freight demand created by alternative fuel projects might provide some respite in the longer term, but the competitive battle will be fought before those cargoes materialize. </p><div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6144850_0.1.jpg"></img></div><p><b>A look back:</b> In an often muddled and sometimes downright chaotic freight market, carriers of bulk and project cargoes maintained a surprising sense of stability in 2025. In its final index report of the year, specialist shipbroker Toepfer Transport described the steady MPV charter rates reported throughout 2025 as “remarkable.” Daily rates as measured by the Toepfer Multipurpose Index spent the year in a very narrow range of $12,690 to $13,246 per day, finishing the year at $12,818 per day.  </p><p>“Fleet utilization remains at a satisfactory level, and the stable market indicates no likelihood of a year-end rally or decline,” the shipbroker said. As of Dec. 1, the <i>Journal of Commerce</i> put the MPV order book at 141 vessels, including 18 open-hatch vessels of at least 45,000 deadweight tons, equivalent to just 8% of the operating fleet. And it is heavy-lift capable vessels that continue to dominate the order book, with 63% of newbuildings on order capable of lifting over 240 metric ton safe working loads (SWLs). This lack of new tonnage, combined with limited ship recycling, steady demand and rates at levels that are helping to keep older MPVs employed, could help to maintain stability, if not for competing vessel sectors. </p><p><b>A look ahead:</b> Carriers speaking with the <i>Journal of Commerce</i> at the end of 2025 confessed they were keeping a wary eye on the other sectors that traditionally compete with MPVs, with the container sector expected to cause the most angst heading into 2026. Although it was up slightly from the 2025 low set in October, the World Container Index assessed by Drewry, a composite of global average container spot rates, was down 44.5% year over year in December.  </p><p>What’s more, there is little evidence to suggest that container volumes on the major east-west trades will grow enough to keep pace with capacity and lift spot rates this year. Although the smaller, less-specialized MPVs are most at risk, if those operators lose cargo to container lines, that will create a ripple effect in which the smaller MPVs begin competing with larger MPV operators for project cargoes. </p><div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="a1186488-a092-4036-93c0-1f46c494b64d"></dynamic-object></div><p><b>The next inflection:</b> The alternative fuel enigma has yet to be solved for the maritime shipping industry. For MPV operators, that lack of clarity makes it frustratingly difficult to order newbuild ships, but it also leaves a door open for a new source of cargo: industrial projects related to green fuel production and infrastructure. Whether hydrogen-based options, biofuels, liquefied natural gas or nuclear win out, the construction of large-scale production facilities will support a boom in project cargoes well beyond 2026. </p><p><i>Contact Carly Fields at </i><a href="mailto:carly.fields@spglobal.com"><i>carly.fields@spglobal.com</i></a><i>.</i> </p></div>

The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook. The big picture: Stability was the word of the day for the multipurpose vessel (MPV) sector in 2025, but pressure from competing fleets is likely to change that in 2026. Shippers unwilling — or unable — to ignore bargain basement rates from container lines will be tempted to divert breakbulk cargoes to container ships this year, potentially leaving MPVs scrambling for volumes. Freight demand created by alternative fuel projects might provide some respite in the longer term, but the competitive battle will be fought before those cargoes materialize. A look back: In an often muddled and sometimes downright chaotic freight market, carriers of bulk and project cargoes maintained a surprising sense of stability in 2025. In its final index report of the year, specialist shipbroker Toepfer Transport described the steady MPV charter rates reported throughout 2025 as “remarkable.” Daily rates as measured by the Toepfer Multipurpose Index spent the year in a very narrow range of $12,690 to $13,246 per day, finishing the year at $12,818 per day. “Fleet utilization remains at a satisfactory level, and the stable market indicates no likelihood of a year-end rally or decline,” the shipbroker said. As of Dec. 1, the Journal of Commerce put the MPV order book at 141 vessels, including 18 open-hatch vessels of at least 45,000 deadweight tons, equivalent to just 8% of the operating fleet. And it is heavy-lift capable vessels that continue to dominate the order book, with 63% of newbuildings on order capable of lifting over 240 metric ton safe working loads (SWLs). This lack of new tonnage, combined with limited ship recycling, steady demand and rates at levels that are helping to keep older MPVs employed, could help to maintain stability, if not for competing vessel sectors. A look ahead: Carriers speaking with the Journal of Commerce at the end of 2025 confessed they were keeping a wary eye on the other sectors that traditionally compete with MPVs, with the container sector expected to cause the most angst heading into 2026. Although it was up slightly from the 2025 low set in October, the World Container Index assessed by Drewry, a composite of global average container spot rates, was down 44.5% year over year in December. What’s more, there is little evidence to suggest that container volumes on the major east-west trades will grow enough to keep pace with capacity and lift spot rates this year. Although the smaller, less-specialized MPVs are most at risk, if those operators lose cargo to container lines, that will create a ripple effect in which the smaller MPVs begin competing with larger MPV operators for project cargoes. The next inflection: The alternative fuel enigma has yet to be solved for the maritime shipping industry. For MPV operators, that lack of clarity makes it frustratingly difficult to order newbuild ships, but it also leaves a door open for a new source of cargo: industrial projects related to green fuel production and infrastructure. Whether hydrogen-based options, biofuels, liquefied natural gas or nuclear win out, the construction of large-scale production facilities will support a boom in project cargoes well beyond 2026. Contact Carly Fields at carly.fields@spglobal.com .

Container sector pressure could upend steady MPV market

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>With vessel capacity outstripping volumes on the major trade lanes, analysts expect carriers to fall into the red as early as the first quarter, culminating in a multi-billion-dollar combined loss for the full year. </p></div>

With vessel capacity outstripping volumes on the major trade lanes, analysts expect carriers to fall into the red as early as the first quarter, culminating in a multi-billion-dollar combined loss for the full year.

<div class="phx-topic"><p><i>The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook.</i> </p><p><b>The big picture:</b> A growing imbalance between supply and demand will bring the container shipping industry’s five-year profitability voyage to an end in 2026. With vessel capacity outstripping volumes on the major trade lanes, analysts expect carriers to fall into the red as early as the first quarter, culminating in a multi-billion-dollar combined loss for the full year. </p><p><b>A look back:</b> The US tariff mayhem from the Trump administration severely disrupted container shipping on the trans-Pacific, particularly between the US and China. A tit-for-tat, stop-and-go escalation of the trade war between Washington and Beijing led to significant frontloading of US imports and, in turn, a harsher-than-usual slowdown in the final months of 2025. On the Asia-Europe trade lane, a different kind of frontloading caused peak season to begin in May, rather than June.  </p><div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6143172_0.1.jpg"></img></div><p>Shippers concerned about longer transit times around southern Africa — in place since the Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea began in late 2023 — moved their imports a month earlier than normal to make sure goods made it on the shelves in time for summer, and strong demand continued through July before beginning to slide in September. Even with a fourth-quarter volume downturn, carriers were on pace to report a combined $20 billion profit in 2025, according to Drewry Shipping Consultants. </p><p><b>A look ahead:</b> With that depressed demand expected to linger into 2026, Drewry is forecasting a $10 billion container shipping industry loss for the year. Typically, volumes on the east-west trades out of Asia swell in January as shippers look to restock prior to Lunar New Year celebrations, during which factories in China slow or halt production for two weeks. This year, Asia-Europe forwarders are reporting relatively solid bookings for the month, but trans-Pacific forwarders are skeptical they will see any appreciable growth. The lackluster pre-Lunar New Year demand bodes poorly for the rest of the year, and maritime analysts expect the growing supply-demand imbalance to undermine efforts to raise rates. Global fleet capacity will grow 2.2% to 33.7 million TEUs in 2026, according to Drewry, while global container volumes will rise between 2.5% and 3.5%, according to a forecast from shipowner association Bimco. But the imbalance will be far more apparent on the trans-Pacific. With US retailers keeping inventories lean amid uncertain consumer sentiment and ever-changing tariff policy, Moody’s Ratings forecasts US container volumes will be flat to down 2% compared with 2025. </p><p><b>The next inflection:</b> The diversion of container ships away from the Suez Canal mitigated what would have been a significant capacity overhang over the past three years. But analysts warn that if carriers return to the much-faster Suez transits — the likelihood of which increases the longer the Israel-Hamas ceasefire holds — the resulting vessel bunching at ports in Europe will likewise tie up a significant amount of capacity. Those bottlenecks could take months to clear, putting upward pressure on rates and giving carriers some relief from an otherwise bleak earnings outlook. </p><p><i>Contact Greg Knowler at </i><a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com"><i>greg.knowler@spglobal.com</i></a><i>.</i> </p></div>

The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook. The big picture: A growing imbalance between supply and demand will bring the container shipping industry’s five-year profitability voyage to an end in 2026. With vessel capacity outstripping volumes on the major trade lanes, analysts expect carriers to fall into the red as early as the first quarter, culminating in a multi-billion-dollar combined loss for the full year. A look back: The US tariff mayhem from the Trump administration severely disrupted container shipping on the trans-Pacific, particularly between the US and China. A tit-for-tat, stop-and-go escalation of the trade war between Washington and Beijing led to significant frontloading of US imports and, in turn, a harsher-than-usual slowdown in the final months of 2025. On the Asia-Europe trade lane, a different kind of frontloading caused peak season to begin in May, rather than June. Shippers concerned about longer transit times around southern Africa — in place since the Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea began in late 2023 — moved their imports a month earlier than normal to make sure goods made it on the shelves in time for summer, and strong demand continued through July before beginning to slide in September. Even with a fourth-quarter volume downturn, carriers were on pace to report a combined $20 billion profit in 2025, according to Drewry Shipping Consultants. A look ahead: With that depressed demand expected to linger into 2026, Drewry is forecasting a $10 billion container shipping industry loss for the year. Typically, volumes on the east-west trades out of Asia swell in January as shippers look to restock prior to Lunar New Year celebrations, during which factories in China slow or halt production for two weeks. This year, Asia-Europe forwarders are reporting relatively solid bookings for the month, but trans-Pacific forwarders are skeptical they will see any appreciable growth. The lackluster pre-Lunar New Year demand bodes poorly for the rest of the year, and maritime analysts expect the growing supply-demand imbalance to undermine efforts to raise rates. Global fleet capacity will grow 2.2% to 33.7 million TEUs in 2026, according to Drewry, while global container volumes will rise between 2.5% and 3.5%, according to a forecast from shipowner association Bimco. But the imbalance will be far more apparent on the trans-Pacific. With US retailers keeping inventories lean amid uncertain consumer sentiment and ever-changing tariff policy, Moody’s Ratings forecasts US container volumes will be flat to down 2% compared with 2025. The next inflection: The diversion of container ships away from the Suez Canal mitigated what would have been a significant capacity overhang over the past three years. But analysts warn that if carriers return to the much-faster Suez transits — the likelihood of which increases the longer the Israel-Hamas ceasefire holds — the resulting vessel bunching at ports in Europe will likewise tie up a significant amount of capacity. Those bottlenecks could take months to clear, putting upward pressure on rates and giving carriers some relief from an otherwise bleak earnings outlook. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Asia-Europe

Container Shipping News

Supply-demand imbalance puts ocean carriers on course for heavy losses

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>Months of frontloading explain the sharp volume slowdown in the final months of 2025, and with consumer sentiment weak and long-term trade policies still uncertain, US retailers are keeping inventories lean in early 2026. </p></div>

Months of frontloading explain the sharp volume slowdown in the final months of 2025, and with consumer sentiment weak and long-term trade policies still uncertain, US retailers are keeping inventories lean in early 2026.

<div class="phx-topic"><p><b>The big picture:</b> After an earlier-than-usual July peak season caused by tariff-related frontloading, the trans-Pacific trade enters 2026 in the midst of a deepening demand slowdown. Carriers are hoping a traditional pre-Lunar New Year rush will boost volumes and help buoy spot rates on the largest US trade lane, but the chances of a significant uptick are dwindling rapidly. </p><div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6143172_0.1.jpg"></img></div><p><b>A look back:</b> Ocean container trade between Asia and the US in 2025 was marked primarily by retailers frontloading imports to reduce the pricing impact of Trump administration tariffs. The administration throughout the year issued more than 100 tariff decisions affecting imports from virtually every country in the world, with the largest increases in duty rates on goods made in China. As a result, containerized US imports from Asia grew 3.2% in the first eight months of 2025 before tumbling 8.8% year over year from September through November, according to data from PIERS, a sister product of the <i>Journal of Commerce</i> within S&amp;P Global. That volatility in volumes was also evident in the two large spikes in spot rates recorded in the first half, both of which were followed by swift declines. </p><p>Average pricing from Asia to the US West Coast rose above $5,000 per FEU in early January, fell to $1,600 per FEU in March, rose to a 2025 high of $6,000 per FEU in June and then dropped to $1,700 per FEU in July, according to Platts, also part of S&amp;P Global. Starting Oct. 1, carriers launched a series of bimonthly general rate increases (GRIs) in an attempt to prevent spot rates from collapsing, but the effect of each GRI was short-lived, and by mid-December, Asia-US West Coast spot rates had fallen to $1,270 per FEU, the lowest reading since July 2023. </p><p><b>A look ahead:</b> Months of frontloading explain the harsh volume slowdown in the final months of 2025, and with consumer sentiment weak and long-term trade policies still uncertain, US retailers are keeping inventories lean in early 2026. Despite a one-year negotiating pause in reciprocal US-China tariffs that began in November, imports from China still face an effective duty rate of 47%. Retailers are placing orders for spring merchandise cautiously, and the typical rush of factory production and container vessel bookings in the lead up to Lunar New Year celebrations in China are expected to fall flat, leaving volumes well below the levels recorded in 2025.  </p><div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="a04e27f7-b2bc-4d9d-b3cc-b14fb864d836"></dynamic-object></div><p>Total US imports are forecast to fall 10.3% year over year in January, 8.5% in February, 16.8% in March and 10.9% in April, according to the latest Global Port Tracker from Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation. Carriers have not dismissed the possibility of additional GRIs in the new year, but as in the latter part of 2025, their efforts will be focused more on maintaining a floor on spot rates as opposed to increasing the ceiling. </p><p><b>The next inflection:</b> Trans-Pacific carriers and their customers are looking ahead to two possible developments in 2026 that could further depress freight rates: a forecast 4% increase in global container ship capacity and whether carriers will return to regular transits through the Suez Canal, which could increase effective capacity from Asia to the US East Coast. </p><p><i>Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at </i><a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com"><i>bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</i></a><i>.</i> </p></div>

The big picture: After an earlier-than-usual July peak season caused by tariff-related frontloading, the trans-Pacific trade enters 2026 in the midst of a deepening demand slowdown. Carriers are hoping a traditional pre-Lunar New Year rush will boost volumes and help buoy spot rates on the largest US trade lane, but the chances of a significant uptick are dwindling rapidly. A look back: Ocean container trade between Asia and the US in 2025 was marked primarily by retailers frontloading imports to reduce the pricing impact of Trump administration tariffs. The administration throughout the year issued more than 100 tariff decisions affecting imports from virtually every country in the world, with the largest increases in duty rates on goods made in China. As a result, containerized US imports from Asia grew 3.2% in the first eight months of 2025 before tumbling 8.8% year over year from September through November, according to data from PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. That volatility in volumes was also evident in the two large spikes in spot rates recorded in the first half, both of which were followed by swift declines. Average pricing from Asia to the US West Coast rose above $5,000 per FEU in early January, fell to $1,600 per FEU in March, rose to a 2025 high of $6,000 per FEU in June and then dropped to $1,700 per FEU in July, according to Platts, also part of S&P Global. Starting Oct. 1, carriers launched a series of bimonthly general rate increases (GRIs) in an attempt to prevent spot rates from collapsing, but the effect of each GRI was short-lived, and by mid-December, Asia-US West Coast spot rates had fallen to $1,270 per FEU, the lowest reading since July 2023. A look ahead: Months of frontloading explain the harsh volume slowdown in the final months of 2025, and with consumer sentiment weak and long-term trade policies still uncertain, US retailers are keeping inventories lean in early 2026. Despite a one-year negotiating pause in reciprocal US-China tariffs that began in November, imports from China still face an effective duty rate of 47%. Retailers are placing orders for spring merchandise cautiously, and the typical rush of factory production and container vessel bookings in the lead up to Lunar New Year celebrations in China are expected to fall flat, leaving volumes well below the levels recorded in 2025. Total US imports are forecast to fall 10.3% year over year in January, 8.5% in February, 16.8% in March and 10.9% in April, according to the latest Global Port Tracker from Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation. Carriers have not dismissed the possibility of additional GRIs in the new year, but as in the latter part of 2025, their efforts will be focused more on maintaining a floor on spot rates as opposed to increasing the ceiling. The next inflection: Trans-Pacific carriers and their customers are looking ahead to two possible developments in 2026 that could further depress freight rates: a forecast 4% increase in global container ship capacity and whether carriers will return to regular transits through the Suez Canal, which could increase effective capacity from Asia to the US East Coast. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .

Trans-Pacific

Tariffs, economic uncertainty weigh on pre-Lunar New Year trans-Pac volumes

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