<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The worst is over for Houston's ailing office market, and a long-term recovery is gaining momentum t</div>

The worst is over for Houston's ailing office market, and a long-term recovery is gaining momentum t

<div>The worst is over for Houston's ailing office market, and a long-term recovery is gaining momentum that should increase occupancy over the next four years, researchers said.Most economic indicators point to a bottoming of the market in the first half of last year, said Rice Center Vice President James P. Gaines, who oversees the organization's Houston Real Estate Forecasting System.Since then, we've had positive absorption, positive job growth and generally positive economic indices, Mr. Gaines said. We are forecasting a good year for office absorption, with just over 2 million square feet absorbed in 1988.By 1991 or 1992, the city...

The worst is over for Houston's ailing office market, and a long-term recovery is gaining momentum that should increase occupancy over the next four years, researchers said. Most economic indicators point to a bottoming of the market in the first half of last year, said Rice Center Vice President James P. Gaines, who oversees the organization's Houston Real Estate Forecasting System.Since then, we've had positive absorption, positive job growth and generally positive economic indices, Mr. Gaines said. We are forecasting a good year for office absorption, with just over 2 million square feet absorbed in 1988. By 1991 or 1992, the city should not only see marked improvements in employment, but office absorption should increase to between 3.7 million and 6 million square feet, Mr. Gaines said. If a national economic downturn occurs in late 1989 or early 1990, however, about 40 percent less space will be absorbed, Mr. Gaines said.

HOUSTON OFFICE MARKET TURNS UP

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Jacksonville Port Authority said Wednesday the Ocean Alliance will include the port on its Chesapeake Bay Express (CBX) service rotation as of this June. </div>

The Jacksonville Port Authority said Wednesday the Ocean Alliance will include the port on its Chesapeake Bay Express (CBX) service rotation as of this June.

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<div class="phx-topic">CMA CGM will add the Port of Jacksonville to its trans-Pacific express service, adding to the port’s roster of direct Asia services and tapping the recent modernization of Jaxport’s main marine terminal. The Jacksonville Port Authority said in a statement Wednesday the Ocean Alliance will include the port on its Chesapeake Bay Express (CBX) service rotation as of this June. The CBX, operated exclusively by CMA CGM, calls Vietnam, China and South Korea before its eastbound rotation that includes US calls at Norfolk, Charleston and Savannah before Jacksonville. The CBX had previously called Miami, which is no longer on its rotation, according to its schedule. Ocean Alliance had previously been planning to <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ocean-alliance-adding-vietnam-calls-to-north-america-for-2026-6155909">add Jacksonville to one of its Gulf Coast services</a> but instead settled on including it on the CBX. Jaxport will see the first CBX call with the June 27 expected arrival of the 7,327-TEU CMA CGM Passion. Jaxport Chief Executive Eric Green said in the statement the introduction of the CBX “expands routing flexibility between the Southeast United States and key Asian markets.” Jaxport added that its position on the CBX rotation will mean “opportunities for equipment repositioning and expedited transit for US export cargoes.” <h3>Two other direct Far East services </h3>The addition of the CBX marks the third Far East Asia service now calling Jacksonville directly. Premier Alliance’s EC3 service, which made Jacksonville the first US Southeast port of call for that service last July, now dominates the port’s Asian trade volumes. During the past 12 months, Premier Alliance partner Ocean Network Express (ONE) has made 61 port calls to Jacksonville with ships of 14,000-TEU average capacity, according to Sea-web, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. ONE’s standalone West India North America service also calls the port. Jacksonville also has a jointly-operated trans-Pacific service from Mediterranean Shipping Co. and Zim Integrated Shipping Services. The two accounted for 21 of the post-Panamax ship calls to Jacksonville over the past 12 months. The CBX will be able to tap an expansion and modernization of Jacksonville’s Blount Island container terminal, which was completed last fall. The three-year project included adding six outbound truck lanes, additional staging areas, and newly paved asphalt to allow for higher container stacks. Blount, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/jaxport-receives-30-million-in-state-funds-for-new-cranes-at-blount-island-5201528">which has six post-Panamax cranes</a>, will have capacity to handle 500,000 TEUs per year. The port is currently undertaking a project to raise power lines that span the St. John’s River and <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/jaxport-secures-funding-to-raise-power-lines-for-blount-island-big-ship-calls-5220798">increase the air clearance for larger vessels</a> to call its Dames Point Container Terminal. Jacksonville’s containerized imports from Asia and the Indian subcontinent slipped to 137,941 TEUs in 2025, according to PIERS, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce, a 1.1% drop from a year earlier. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

CMA CGM will add the Port of Jacksonville to its trans-Pacific express service, adding to the port’s roster of direct Asia services and tapping the recent modernization of Jaxport’s main marine terminal. The Jacksonville Port Authority said in a statement Wednesday the Ocean Alliance will include the port on its Chesapeake Bay Express (CBX) service rotation as of this June. The CBX, operated exclusively by CMA CGM, calls Vietnam, China and South Korea before its eastbound rotation that includes US calls at Norfolk, Charleston and Savannah before Jacksonville. The CBX had previously called Miami, which is no longer on its rotation, according to its schedule. Ocean Alliance had previously been planning to add Jacksonville to one of its Gulf Coast services but instead settled on including it on the CBX. Jaxport will see the first CBX call with the June 27 expected arrival of the 7,327-TEU CMA CGM Passion. Jaxport Chief Executive Eric Green said in the statement the introduction of the CBX “expands routing flexibility between the Southeast United States and key Asian markets.” Jaxport added that its position on the CBX rotation will mean “opportunities for equipment repositioning and expedited transit for US export cargoes.” Two other direct Far East services The addition of the CBX marks the third Far East Asia service now calling Jacksonville directly. Premier Alliance’s EC3 service, which made Jacksonville the first US Southeast port of call for that service last July, now dominates the port’s Asian trade volumes. During the past 12 months, Premier Alliance partner Ocean Network Express (ONE) has made 61 port calls to Jacksonville with ships of 14,000-TEU average capacity, according to Sea-web, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. ONE’s standalone West India North America service also calls the port. Jacksonville also has a jointly-operated trans-Pacific service from Mediterranean Shipping Co. and Zim Integrated Shipping Services. The two accounted for 21 of the post-Panamax ship calls to Jacksonville over the past 12 months. The CBX will be able to tap an expansion and modernization of Jacksonville’s Blount Island container terminal, which was completed last fall. The three-year project included adding six outbound truck lanes, additional staging areas, and newly paved asphalt to allow for higher container stacks. Blount, which has six post-Panamax cranes , will have capacity to handle 500,000 TEUs per year. The port is currently undertaking a project to raise power lines that span the St. John’s River and increase the air clearance for larger vessels to call its Dames Point Container Terminal. Jacksonville’s containerized imports from Asia and the Indian subcontinent slipped to 137,941 TEUs in 2025, according to PIERS, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce, a 1.1% drop from a year earlier. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Maritime

Port News

Trans-Pacific

Port infrastructure

North American ports

Marine terminals

International ports

Container Shipping News

CMA CGM taps Jaxport as newest call for Asia express service

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The largest US LTL carrier looks to add new business in the healthcare, food and energy sectors and among small businesses to grow volume and improve profitability. </div>

The largest US LTL carrier looks to add new business in the healthcare, food and energy sectors and among small businesses to grow volume and improve profitability.

<div class="phx-topic">FedEx Freight is planning for growth despite a weak industrial freight economy by reaching into new markets as it prepares for a June 1 spin off from parent company FedEx. The largest US less-than-truckload (LTL) provider and US trucking company sees big opportunities in small businesses, as well as the healthcare, data center, energy, and food and grocery sectors. Those markets represent a $9 billion revenue opportunity largely untapped by FedEx Freight, which had $8.9 billion in revenue in fiscal 2025. “We’re doing little business in those verticals,” John Smith, FedEx Freight’s incoming president and CEO, told analysts Wednesday at the company’s first standalone investor day in New York. The company expects “modest” top-line growth in a transition period from June 1 through Dec. 31, CFO Marshall Witt said at the event, which was webcast. He stressed the company will put profit before short-term volume growth. In its current fiscal year, which ends on the eve of the spin-off on May 31, FedEx Freight expects $8.7 billion in revenue and $1.1 billion in adjusted operating profit. In its last quarter ending February, revenue dropped 4.6% year over year, but operating profit increased 8.5%. Going forward, the company expects a 4% to 6% compound annual growth rate in revenue as it disentangles its operations from FedEx’s parcel business. “We’re focused on improving our financial position within the first 12 months of the spin-off,” Witt said, noting the industry is facing a “tough freight market with macro-economic volatility.” FedEx Freight, which has reduced its physical network by a net of 30 terminals and 400 service center doors over the past three years, doesn’t plan to cut capacity. “We have 30% excess capacity in our network today, and we feel we’re in a good position in the right markets,” said COO Clint McCoy. LTL carriers typically try to keep 20% to 30% excess capacity in their terminal networks to avoid chokepoints and allow for expansion in times of growth. FedEx Freight currently has 355 LTL service centers and 10 linehaul relay centers or hubs. <h3>Shipment shortfall </h3>Most of the company’s shipments come from industrial, transportation, logistics, and consumer goods customers, according to data shared during the event. Those shipments are declining amid industrial weakness. Total shipments per day at FedEx Freight fell 5.7% year over year in the fiscal quarter ending Feb. 28, dropping to 80,233 daily shipments. The year-to-date average daily shipment count, at 85,938 shipments, is down 13.8% from 2023, FedEx data shows. That underscores a long industry-wide decline in LTL shipment volumes attributed to weakness in US manufacturing and lower demand for physical goods. Recent improvements in US manufacturing activity, evident in Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) from S&amp;P Global and the Institute for Supply Management, haven’t added much to LTL volumes yet, although XPO and Saia both saw volumes rise in February. “We’re seeing some upside” in manufacturing, compared with other sectors, Witt said. But he expects improved profitability and yield to drive revenue growth more than volume. Weak volumes are driving the focus on growing business with new shippers in markets underserved by LTL carriers. “We are targeting higher growth in end-markets that align with our offerings,” said Mike Lyons, the company’s chief specialized services and commercial officer. The hiring of a dedicated sales force of 500 regional sales representatives “gives us the engine to go out and address markets where we have little penetration today,” Lyons said. <h3>Disciplined pricing </h3>FedEx isn’t the only LTL carrier eyeing new customers and new markets. XPO, the third-largest LTL provider, also has strengthened its sales force and targeted small businesses, while launching new premium services that support higher profit margins. “The expansion we’re driving with local customers and premium services is contributing to our above-market pricing growth,” XPO CEO Mario Harik said during a March earnings call. Increases in yield helped offset lower volumes in the fourth quarter at XPO. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="ccca9ba6-556b-417d-9e3d-83b396f754e8"></dynamic-object></div>The focus on yield, a measure of profitability based partly on pricing, means a rate war for market share is not on the table, even as LTL carriers sweat the decline in shipments. FedEx Freight plans to increase its market share, currently at about 15%, according to SJ Consulting Group data, but only when it can do so profitably. “This will be done through maintaining a disciplined approach to pricing, optimizing productivity, and reducing the overall cost to serve and support growth,” Witt said. LTL carriers are still seeing mid-single-digit price increases, according to the producer price index, but those increases are lower than last year. In February, the LTL producer price index rose 5.3% year over year, compared with a 9.5% average increase for the last six months of 2025. Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

FedEx Freight is planning for growth despite a weak industrial freight economy by reaching into new markets as it prepares for a June 1 spin off from parent company FedEx. The largest US less-than-truckload (LTL) provider and US trucking company sees big opportunities in small businesses, as well as the healthcare, data center, energy, and food and grocery sectors. Those markets represent a $9 billion revenue opportunity largely untapped by FedEx Freight, which had $8.9 billion in revenue in fiscal 2025. “We’re doing little business in those verticals,” John Smith, FedEx Freight’s incoming president and CEO, told analysts Wednesday at the company’s first standalone investor day in New York. The company expects “modest” top-line growth in a transition period from June 1 through Dec. 31, CFO Marshall Witt said at the event, which was webcast. He stressed the company will put profit before short-term volume growth. In its current fiscal year, which ends on the eve of the spin-off on May 31, FedEx Freight expects $8.7 billion in revenue and $1.1 billion in adjusted operating profit. In its last quarter ending February, revenue dropped 4.6% year over year, but operating profit increased 8.5%. Going forward, the company expects a 4% to 6% compound annual growth rate in revenue as it disentangles its operations from FedEx’s parcel business. “We’re focused on improving our financial position within the first 12 months of the spin-off,” Witt said, noting the industry is facing a “tough freight market with macro-economic volatility.” FedEx Freight, which has reduced its physical network by a net of 30 terminals and 400 service center doors over the past three years, doesn’t plan to cut capacity. “We have 30% excess capacity in our network today, and we feel we’re in a good position in the right markets,” said COO Clint McCoy. LTL carriers typically try to keep 20% to 30% excess capacity in their terminal networks to avoid chokepoints and allow for expansion in times of growth. FedEx Freight currently has 355 LTL service centers and 10 linehaul relay centers or hubs. Shipment shortfall Most of the company’s shipments come from industrial, transportation, logistics, and consumer goods customers, according to data shared during the event. Those shipments are declining amid industrial weakness. Total shipments per day at FedEx Freight fell 5.7% year over year in the fiscal quarter ending Feb. 28, dropping to 80,233 daily shipments. The year-to-date average daily shipment count, at 85,938 shipments, is down 13.8% from 2023, FedEx data shows. That underscores a long industry-wide decline in LTL shipment volumes attributed to weakness in US manufacturing and lower demand for physical goods. Recent improvements in US manufacturing activity, evident in Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) from S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management, haven’t added much to LTL volumes yet, although XPO and Saia both saw volumes rise in February. “We’re seeing some upside” in manufacturing, compared with other sectors, Witt said. But he expects improved profitability and yield to drive revenue growth more than volume. Weak volumes are driving the focus on growing business with new shippers in markets underserved by LTL carriers. “We are targeting higher growth in end-markets that align with our offerings,” said Mike Lyons, the company’s chief specialized services and commercial officer. The hiring of a dedicated sales force of 500 regional sales representatives “gives us the engine to go out and address markets where we have little penetration today,” Lyons said. Disciplined pricing FedEx isn’t the only LTL carrier eyeing new customers and new markets. XPO, the third-largest LTL provider, also has strengthened its sales force and targeted small businesses, while launching new premium services that support higher profit margins. “The expansion we’re driving with local customers and premium services is contributing to our above-market pricing growth,” XPO CEO Mario Harik said during a March earnings call. Increases in yield helped offset lower volumes in the fourth quarter at XPO. The focus on yield, a measure of profitability based partly on pricing, means a rate war for market share is not on the table, even as LTL carriers sweat the decline in shipments. FedEx Freight plans to increase its market share, currently at about 15%, according to SJ Consulting Group data, but only when it can do so profitably. “This will be done through maintaining a disciplined approach to pricing, optimizing productivity, and reducing the overall cost to serve and support growth,” Witt said. LTL carriers are still seeing mid-single-digit price increases, according to the producer price index, but those increases are lower than last year. In February, the LTL producer price index rose 5.3% year over year, compared with a 9.5% average increase for the last six months of 2025. Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .

Trucking News

Surface

FedEx Freight plans diversification as spin-off date approaches

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The carrier said the ships, with a combined value of up to $1.8 billion, will be deployed on Asia-Europe services as part of a strategic plan to increase the size of vessels serving that trade by 2030.</div>

The carrier said the ships, with a combined value of up to $1.8 billion, will be deployed on Asia-Europe services as part of a strategic plan to increase the size of vessels serving that trade by 2030.

<div class="phx-topic">Taiwan’s Evergreen Marine is adding to its lengthening order book with a deal for six 24,000-TEU container ships to be built at South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean shipyard, the carrier said Wednesday. The value for the new order of LNG-fueled vessels is between $1.6 billion and $1.8 billion, Evergreen said in a filing to the Taiwan stock exchange. The deal means Taiwan’s largest container line has splashed out more than $6 billion on new ships since November. Earlier contracts comprise orders worth almost $1.5 billion <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/evergreen-adds-to-order-backlog-with-deals-for-23-ships-worth-up-to-almost-15-billion-6159700">for 23 container ships in January</a> and an order close to $3 billion for <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/evergreen-says-will-spend-almost-3-billion-on-14-new-lng-fueled-ships-6114739">14 14,000-TEU LNG-fueled vessels in November</a>. Evergreen said the latest ships will be deployed on Asia-Europe services as part of a strategic plan to increase the size of vessels serving that trade by 2030. The carrier also said it aims to launch an additional Asia-Europe service by the end of the decade. Evergreen currently has 12 24,000-TEU ships assigned to European sailings after the last vessel in the series, Ever Aeon, was completed in late 2024. It now offers seven Asia-North Europe services as a member of Ocean Alliance with Cosco, OOCL and CMA CGM, under which it launched its “Day 10” network this month. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="ef78ab1f-3609-44d0-a713-fb260bc40609"></dynamic-object></div>The ship order announced Wednesday would increase Evergreen’s total group fleet to about 274 vessels with a deployed capacity of more than 2.9 million TEUs, according to the carrier’s fleet figures. The LNG-powered ships will increase the number of dual-fuel vessels in the Evergreen fleet to more than 60 by 2029 — 22% of the enlarged fleet by that date, according to the carrier’s data. The order, meanwhile, reinforces LNG as the next-generation fuel of choice for carriers. LNG vessels now account for almost 80% of the dual-fuel ships on order, equivalent to over 6.4 million TEUs of capacity, according to Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>. </div>

Taiwan’s Evergreen Marine is adding to its lengthening order book with a deal for six 24,000-TEU container ships to be built at South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean shipyard, the carrier said Wednesday. The value for the new order of LNG-fueled vessels is between $1.6 billion and $1.8 billion, Evergreen said in a filing to the Taiwan stock exchange. The deal means Taiwan’s largest container line has splashed out more than $6 billion on new ships since November. Earlier contracts comprise orders worth almost $1.5 billion for 23 container ships in January and an order close to $3 billion for 14 14,000-TEU LNG-fueled vessels in November . Evergreen said the latest ships will be deployed on Asia-Europe services as part of a strategic plan to increase the size of vessels serving that trade by 2030. The carrier also said it aims to launch an additional Asia-Europe service by the end of the decade. Evergreen currently has 12 24,000-TEU ships assigned to European sailings after the last vessel in the series, Ever Aeon, was completed in late 2024. It now offers seven Asia-North Europe services as a member of Ocean Alliance with Cosco, OOCL and CMA CGM, under which it launched its “Day 10” network this month. The ship order announced Wednesday would increase Evergreen’s total group fleet to about 274 vessels with a deployed capacity of more than 2.9 million TEUs, according to the carrier’s fleet figures. The LNG-powered ships will increase the number of dual-fuel vessels in the Evergreen fleet to more than 60 by 2029 — 22% of the enlarged fleet by that date, according to the carrier’s data. The order, meanwhile, reinforces LNG as the next-generation fuel of choice for carriers. LNG vessels now account for almost 80% of the dual-fuel ships on order, equivalent to over 6.4 million TEUs of capacity, according to Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

Container lines

Asia-Europe

Evergreen adds to order book with deal for six 24,000-TEU vessels

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">As part of the deal, Iran said it would allow shipping to resume through the strait with vessel passages coordinated by the Iranian military, but it has not yet issued any technical details.</div>

As part of the deal, Iran said it would allow shipping to resume through the strait with vessel passages coordinated by the Iranian military, but it has not yet issued any technical details.

<div class="phx-topic">The shipping industry is awaiting details from the US and Iran on how to transit the Strait of Hormuz safely following a narrow two-week ceasefire window agreed to Wednesday between Washington and Tehran. As part of the deal, Iran said it would allow shipping to resume through the strait with vessel passages coordinated by the Iranian military, but it has not yet issued any technical details. Complicating matters is that Iran has proposed a toll system for Hormuz passage, with Tehran suggesting it would charge vessels $2 million for transiting and split the fee with neighboring Oman. And underscoring the sensitivity around transits, a container ship near the strait received a message Wednesday from the Iranian navy warning that operators needed permission from authorities or vessels would be targeted and attacked, according to a source close to the matter who didn’t want to be identified. “In the next couple of days, we will have to see what really happens and how many of the ships can go in and out, and then we’ll have to stay close to that situation to judge what’s going to happen after those 14 days,” Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen told customers in a briefing Wednesday. As negotiations between the US and Iran get underway, the top priority from ocean carriers is to remove an estimated 170 container ships representing 450,000 TEUs, or about 1.5% of global capacity, that have been stuck in the Persian Gulf since the Middle East conflict began on Feb. 28. Hapag-Lloyd has six ships comprising a total of 25,000 TEUs in the Gulf. But the two-week window is too short and too uncertain for carriers to make long-term plans for reestablishing disrupted Middle East networks, Habben Jansen noted. “Hopefully it remains open, and then we can start looking at how quickly we can return to the Persian Gulf,” he said. “How that will go over the upcoming couple of weeks depends on how stable it is, but you should assume that it will still take six to eight weeks or so until we get back to a more normal situation. “Maybe on the back of that, we will also see the Red Sea open up again, but first priority is now clearly with the strait,” he added. <h3>Iran issues 10-point plan </h3>Whether the ceasefire will result in a lasting peace settlement remains highly uncertain. In agreeing to the ceasefire, Iran also issued an ambitious 10-point plan in a statement to its National Security Council that includes an end to US military presence in the region, cessation of war by the US “on all fronts” in the Middle East, Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions, and compensation for reconstruction from war damages. Bimco chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen said if it was considered safe to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, ships trapped within the Persian Gulf will want to leave as soon as possible. “They will load cargoes prior to leaving but only if loading does not jeopardize the chance of leaving within the two weeks,” Rasmussen said in a statement from the shipping association Wednesday. “Unless the two-week window is quickly lengthened, I doubt there will be a large influx of ships into the Persian Gulf,” he said. “Partly because many ships have already sailed to other regions and partly because they do not want to risk being trapped after the two-week window closes.” Any rush to sail through the Strait of Hormuz without prior coordination with the US and Iran “would entail heightened risk and would not be advisable,” said Jakob Larsen, Bimco’s chief safety and security officer. An uncoordinated exit would present navigational risks from collisions and groundings in the narrow waterway, while the potential lack of communication within the depleted Iranian military and political system presents other problems, he noted. “Iran has announced that they want to be in control of transits in the strait,” Larsen said in the Bimco statement. “However, Iran’s military command structure has been severely impacted by attacks in recent weeks which could lead to misunderstandings between the Iranian authorities approving transits and the Iranian military formations that control the weapons. “Such misunderstandings could potentially lead to unintended targeting and attacks on ships approved for transit,” he added. <h3>Reestablishing oil flows ‘will take months’ </h3>News of the ceasefire saw oil prices falling by 13% on Wednesday, although they remain more than 30% above pre-conflict levels. About one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and refined products — 20 million barrels per day — is exported via the Strait of Hormuz, but that slowed to a trickle after the conflict began. Still, even if the ceasefire holds and shipping resumes through Hormuz, it will take months to reestablish disrupted oil and gas production in the Persian Gulf, according to Tristan Abbey, an administrator at the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). “Just as we had never before seen the strait close, we’ve never seen it reopen ... what exactly that looks like remains to be seen,” Abbey said in an EIA market forecast released Tuesday before the ceasefire announcement. “Full restoration of flows will take months. Our modeling indicates that fuel prices will continue to rise until these variables resolve." The EIA forecast noted that limited oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz caused oil storage to fill quickly in countries that relied on the waterway for exports. As a result, the EIA estimated that Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain collectively shut in 7.5 million b/d of crude oil production in March, with production shut-ins to rise to 9.1 million b/d in April. The EIA outlook assumes the conflict will not persist past April, and that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually resume. Under those assumptions, the agency expects production shut-ins will fall to 6.7 million b/d in May and return close to pre-conflict levels in late 2026. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The shipping industry is awaiting details from the US and Iran on how to transit the Strait of Hormuz safely following a narrow two-week ceasefire window agreed to Wednesday between Washington and Tehran. As part of the deal, Iran said it would allow shipping to resume through the strait with vessel passages coordinated by the Iranian military, but it has not yet issued any technical details. Complicating matters is that Iran has proposed a toll system for Hormuz passage, with Tehran suggesting it would charge vessels $2 million for transiting and split the fee with neighboring Oman. And underscoring the sensitivity around transits, a container ship near the strait received a message Wednesday from the Iranian navy warning that operators needed permission from authorities or vessels would be targeted and attacked, according to a source close to the matter who didn’t want to be identified. “In the next couple of days, we will have to see what really happens and how many of the ships can go in and out, and then we’ll have to stay close to that situation to judge what’s going to happen after those 14 days,” Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen told customers in a briefing Wednesday. As negotiations between the US and Iran get underway, the top priority from ocean carriers is to remove an estimated 170 container ships representing 450,000 TEUs, or about 1.5% of global capacity, that have been stuck in the Persian Gulf since the Middle East conflict began on Feb. 28. Hapag-Lloyd has six ships comprising a total of 25,000 TEUs in the Gulf. But the two-week window is too short and too uncertain for carriers to make long-term plans for reestablishing disrupted Middle East networks, Habben Jansen noted. “Hopefully it remains open, and then we can start looking at how quickly we can return to the Persian Gulf,” he said. “How that will go over the upcoming couple of weeks depends on how stable it is, but you should assume that it will still take six to eight weeks or so until we get back to a more normal situation. “Maybe on the back of that, we will also see the Red Sea open up again, but first priority is now clearly with the strait,” he added. Iran issues 10-point plan Whether the ceasefire will result in a lasting peace settlement remains highly uncertain. In agreeing to the ceasefire, Iran also issued an ambitious 10-point plan in a statement to its National Security Council that includes an end to US military presence in the region, cessation of war by the US “on all fronts” in the Middle East, Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions, and compensation for reconstruction from war damages. Bimco chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen said if it was considered safe to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, ships trapped within the Persian Gulf will want to leave as soon as possible. “They will load cargoes prior to leaving but only if loading does not jeopardize the chance of leaving within the two weeks,” Rasmussen said in a statement from the shipping association Wednesday. “Unless the two-week window is quickly lengthened, I doubt there will be a large influx of ships into the Persian Gulf,” he said. “Partly because many ships have already sailed to other regions and partly because they do not want to risk being trapped after the two-week window closes.” Any rush to sail through the Strait of Hormuz without prior coordination with the US and Iran “would entail heightened risk and would not be advisable,” said Jakob Larsen, Bimco’s chief safety and security officer. An uncoordinated exit would present navigational risks from collisions and groundings in the narrow waterway, while the potential lack of communication within the depleted Iranian military and political system presents other problems, he noted. “Iran has announced that they want to be in control of transits in the strait,” Larsen said in the Bimco statement. “However, Iran’s military command structure has been severely impacted by attacks in recent weeks which could lead to misunderstandings between the Iranian authorities approving transits and the Iranian military formations that control the weapons. “Such misunderstandings could potentially lead to unintended targeting and attacks on ships approved for transit,” he added. Reestablishing oil flows ‘will take months’ News of the ceasefire saw oil prices falling by 13% on Wednesday, although they remain more than 30% above pre-conflict levels. About one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and refined products — 20 million barrels per day — is exported via the Strait of Hormuz, but that slowed to a trickle after the conflict began. Still, even if the ceasefire holds and shipping resumes through Hormuz, it will take months to reestablish disrupted oil and gas production in the Persian Gulf, according to Tristan Abbey, an administrator at the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). “Just as we had never before seen the strait close, we’ve never seen it reopen ... what exactly that looks like remains to be seen,” Abbey said in an EIA market forecast released Tuesday before the ceasefire announcement. “Full restoration of flows will take months. Our modeling indicates that fuel prices will continue to rise until these variables resolve." The EIA forecast noted that limited oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz caused oil storage to fill quickly in countries that relied on the waterway for exports. As a result, the EIA estimated that Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain collectively shut in 7.5 million b/d of crude oil production in March, with production shut-ins to rise to 9.1 million b/d in April. The EIA outlook assumes the conflict will not persist past April, and that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually resume. Under those assumptions, the agency expects production shut-ins will fall to 6.7 million b/d in May and return close to pre-conflict levels in late 2026. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Ocean carriers wait for clarity on safe Hormuz passage after US-Iran ceasefire

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Polyethylene prices have nearly doubled since the end of February as Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off the region’s petrochemical plants from the rest of the world.</div>

Polyethylene prices have nearly doubled since the end of February as Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off the region’s petrochemical plants from the rest of the world.

<div class="phx-topic">(The following story appears in the Top 100 Importers and Exporters issue of the Journal of Commerce magazine to be published May 4, 2026.) Following strong growth in 2025, US resins exports could see a repeat due to the global supply squeeze created by the war with Iran. But the degree of growth in 2026 will depend on how quickly new US supply can come online and whether surging resin prices will ultimately cause consumers to pull back. Outbound shipments of polyethylene and polypropylene, which account for over half of US chemicals exports, grew 10.7% to 1.23 million TEUs in 2025, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Last year’s growth was the strongest since 2023, when import container demand returned to normal and allowed more space for exporters. China last year again received the largest share of overall US chemicals exports for any single country, but at 11.2%, it was down from 14.3% in 2024 and the lowest share since before the COVID-19 pandemic, PIERS data showed. Brazil was next at 8%, down marginally from the year prior. Terry Glass, vice president at commodities price reporting agency Argus, said new supply coming online last year fueled 2025 growth. Dow Chemical opened its latest resins production line at its Freeport, Texas, plant, capable of producing enough polyethylene for filling 26,000 20-foot containers per year. After its first production line was completed in 2022, Shell now has three production lines operating at its Monaca plant in Pennsylvania, Glass said. The plant, largely dependent on export markets, can turn out enough resins to fill about 31,000, 20-foot containers annually. The new supply lowered margins on resin, causing producers to lower plant utilization to about 80% toward the end of 2025, Glass said. Producers also typically decrease production ahead of planned maintenance, which generally takes place during the first quarter. However, war in the Middle East has scrambled that plan. Since the end of February, polyethylene prices have nearly doubled as Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off the region’s petrochemical plants from the rest of the world. Glass said North American plants are now running at 91% utilization and likely to defer maintenance due to the strong pricing. “Producers were starting to cut [output] through December and January because they were not getting enough incremental margin,” he said. “We’re forecasting another six months of elevated prices and elevated demand for the US producers.” <h3>War damage to energy infrastructure </h3>Ted Semesnyei, an associate director for S&amp;P Global, said the strong demand will play out in waves globally. Asia will be the first pinched by the cut in Mideast supply. While China has built up its own resin production to supply the region, it primarily uses crude oil from the Middle East as a feedstock. Chinese producers are starting to cut back because of high feedstock costs and are importing alternative feedstocks, which will also become more expensive over time. Europe has some buffer inventory, having built up resin stocks in anticipation of maintenance season, Glass said. European producers also have some flexibility as to sourcing feedstocks from the Mideast or the US. “Not only are skyrocketing feedstock costs a major upside pricing risk, but increasingly actual supply availability is a growing concern,” Semesnyei said. “Because of the way global trade is set up, the Asia region is most at risk, followed by Europe and then North America.” A big unknown for the resins market is the extent of the damage that has already occurred to Mideast petrochemical capacity. The attacks on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG plant and Iran’s South Pars gas field threaten feedstock supply for Mideast resins producers, Glass said, with a preliminary estimate of $25 billion worth of damage. Those facilities could face months, if not years, of repairs. “Even if they could get in and assess the damage, they can’t get access to the parts,” Glass said. “They would need to get some major equipment that is already on back order for two years.” <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="1798929d-28b3-4b03-be92-66a0e269ac32"></dynamic-object></div>There is little, if any, outbound logistical constraint facing North American resin shippers currently. Glass said the distributors and packagers that load resin into containers have enough capacity for more volumes, and container ships have ample space. Export freight rates have ticked higher in anticipation of more demand. The benchmark rate for shipping a dry 20-foot container from Houston to North Europe has reached $1,186, according to Xeneta, a 7% increase from the end of March. The US already exports about 50% of its total polyethylene production currently, Glass said, and that figure could reach 60% thanks to the current strong pricing. US resin customers have about 40 days of inventory, he added, which is a bit of a cushion for diverting product to export markets. But with about one-fifth of global supply coming out of the Mideast, US producers will not be able to replace it entirely. North American producers can likely bring utilization up to about 93% in the short term, but that much utilization will also mean more maintenance for plant equipment. In the near term, the next major supply for the export market will be a Chevron Phillips Chemical and QatarEnergy plant in Orange, Texas, that is expected to be completed in mid-2026. The plant will be capable of making enough polyethylene resins to fill 46,000 20-foot containers per year, but Glass said it will at take least another two to three months after completion for the plant to reach that maximum output. Utilization above 90% is “the max that they can run,” Glass said. “We don’t have a lot of excess capacity.” The ongoing strength in resins prices could also force the market to self-correct, Semesnyei said, with consumers and companies deciding to cut back demand entirely due to higher costs for downstream products. “Major demand destruction will become a growing risk the longer the conflict lasts, impacting the entire world,” he said. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

(The following story appears in the Top 100 Importers and Exporters issue of the Journal of Commerce magazine to be published May 4, 2026.) Following strong growth in 2025, US resins exports could see a repeat due to the global supply squeeze created by the war with Iran. But the degree of growth in 2026 will depend on how quickly new US supply can come online and whether surging resin prices will ultimately cause consumers to pull back. Outbound shipments of polyethylene and polypropylene, which account for over half of US chemicals exports, grew 10.7% to 1.23 million TEUs in 2025, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Last year’s growth was the strongest since 2023, when import container demand returned to normal and allowed more space for exporters. China last year again received the largest share of overall US chemicals exports for any single country, but at 11.2%, it was down from 14.3% in 2024 and the lowest share since before the COVID-19 pandemic, PIERS data showed. Brazil was next at 8%, down marginally from the year prior. Terry Glass, vice president at commodities price reporting agency Argus, said new supply coming online last year fueled 2025 growth. Dow Chemical opened its latest resins production line at its Freeport, Texas, plant, capable of producing enough polyethylene for filling 26,000 20-foot containers per year. After its first production line was completed in 2022, Shell now has three production lines operating at its Monaca plant in Pennsylvania, Glass said. The plant, largely dependent on export markets, can turn out enough resins to fill about 31,000, 20-foot containers annually. The new supply lowered margins on resin, causing producers to lower plant utilization to about 80% toward the end of 2025, Glass said. Producers also typically decrease production ahead of planned maintenance, which generally takes place during the first quarter. However, war in the Middle East has scrambled that plan. Since the end of February, polyethylene prices have nearly doubled as Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off the region’s petrochemical plants from the rest of the world. Glass said North American plants are now running at 91% utilization and likely to defer maintenance due to the strong pricing. “Producers were starting to cut [output] through December and January because they were not getting enough incremental margin,” he said. “We’re forecasting another six months of elevated prices and elevated demand for the US producers.” War damage to energy infrastructure Ted Semesnyei, an associate director for S&P Global, said the strong demand will play out in waves globally. Asia will be the first pinched by the cut in Mideast supply. While China has built up its own resin production to supply the region, it primarily uses crude oil from the Middle East as a feedstock. Chinese producers are starting to cut back because of high feedstock costs and are importing alternative feedstocks, which will also become more expensive over time. Europe has some buffer inventory, having built up resin stocks in anticipation of maintenance season, Glass said. European producers also have some flexibility as to sourcing feedstocks from the Mideast or the US. “Not only are skyrocketing feedstock costs a major upside pricing risk, but increasingly actual supply availability is a growing concern,” Semesnyei said. “Because of the way global trade is set up, the Asia region is most at risk, followed by Europe and then North America.” A big unknown for the resins market is the extent of the damage that has already occurred to Mideast petrochemical capacity. The attacks on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG plant and Iran’s South Pars gas field threaten feedstock supply for Mideast resins producers, Glass said, with a preliminary estimate of $25 billion worth of damage. Those facilities could face months, if not years, of repairs. “Even if they could get in and assess the damage, they can’t get access to the parts,” Glass said. “They would need to get some major equipment that is already on back order for two years.” There is little, if any, outbound logistical constraint facing North American resin shippers currently. Glass said the distributors and packagers that load resin into containers have enough capacity for more volumes, and container ships have ample space. Export freight rates have ticked higher in anticipation of more demand. The benchmark rate for shipping a dry 20-foot container from Houston to North Europe has reached $1,186, according to Xeneta, a 7% increase from the end of March. The US already exports about 50% of its total polyethylene production currently, Glass said, and that figure could reach 60% thanks to the current strong pricing. US resin customers have about 40 days of inventory, he added, which is a bit of a cushion for diverting product to export markets. But with about one-fifth of global supply coming out of the Mideast, US producers will not be able to replace it entirely. North American producers can likely bring utilization up to about 93% in the short term, but that much utilization will also mean more maintenance for plant equipment. In the near term, the next major supply for the export market will be a Chevron Phillips Chemical and QatarEnergy plant in Orange, Texas, that is expected to be completed in mid-2026. The plant will be capable of making enough polyethylene resins to fill 46,000 20-foot containers per year, but Glass said it will at take least another two to three months after completion for the plant to reach that maximum output. Utilization above 90% is “the max that they can run,” Glass said. “We don’t have a lot of excess capacity.” The ongoing strength in resins prices could also force the market to self-correct, Semesnyei said, with consumers and companies deciding to cut back demand entirely due to higher costs for downstream products. “Major demand destruction will become a growing risk the longer the conflict lasts, impacting the entire world,” he said. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

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