<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The U.S. dollar rose sharply against the deutsche mark Wednesday on news of weakness in the German e</div>

The U.S. dollar rose sharply against the deutsche mark Wednesday on news of weakness in the German e

<div>The U.S. dollar rose sharply against the deutsche mark Wednesday on news of weakness in the German economy.Germany's output of goods and services declined 0.5 percent in the second and third quarters of 1991.The dollar's continued rise reflects a major change in market sentiment, a chief dealer at a money center bank said."The view now is that the worst economic news is behind us, that the (U.S.) economy has shifted from heading downhill to flat, and that the first glimmers of an economic upturn are at hand," the dealer said.The dealer said the dollar's rise will be helped when major...

The U.S. dollar rose sharply against the deutsche mark Wednesday on news of weakness in the German economy. Germany's output of goods and services declined 0.5 percent in the second and third quarters of 1991.The dollar's continued rise reflects a major change in market sentiment, a chief dealer at a money center bank said. "The view now is that the worst economic news is behind us, that the (U.S.) economy has shifted from heading downhill to flat, and that the first glimmers of an economic upturn are at hand," the dealer said. The dealer said the dollar's rise will be helped when major multinational U.S. corporations begin to buy dollars. "Most multinationals need dollars for dividends, royalties and hedging balance sheets," he said. "Unless President Bush encounters threatening political news, I believe the days of 1.55 marks (to the dollar) are over, for now. Our trading range is now 1.60 to 1.65 marks," he added. The softening mark is helping the dollar. The German economy could be threatened by inflationary wage demands of steelworkers who are asking for a pay hike of 9.5 percent, analysts said. The union also called for a Jan. 26 strike vote. Further, economic data released Wednesday showed the German economy stagnated in the second half of last year, while real GNP growth for all of last year was 3.2 percent, down from 4.5 percent in 1990. The market had very little reaction to news that U.S. November business inventories rose 0.2 percent, as expected, the third monthly gain in a row. Traders said the dollar's rise also reflected some anticipation that the Group of 7 industrialized nations may decide to push up the U.S. dollar during a Jan. 25 meeting in Washington. The absence of central bank intervention during the dollar's recent surge suggested that other major nations accept the currency's rise, one analyst said. The U.S. stock market's recent rise also has helped the dollar, analysts said. Foreign investors are buying dollars to cash in on rising U.S. equities, they said.

DOLLAR JUMPS ON WEAKNESS IN GERMAN ECONOMY

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">As key global manufacturers of high and heavy cargo, Caterpillar and Deere are considered performance indicators for the roll-on/roll-off breakbulk shipping segment. </div>

As key global manufacturers of high and heavy cargo, Caterpillar and Deere are considered performance indicators for the roll-on/roll-off breakbulk shipping segment.

Feature image

<div class="phx-topic">Caterpillar and Deere are bracing for another hit from US import tariffs in 2026, but the two heavy equipment makers are also looking to the data center boom and other large-scale construction projects as opportunities to drive up business. As key global manufacturers of high and heavy cargo, Caterpillar and Deere are considered performance indicators for the roll-on/roll-off (ro/ro) breakbulk shipping segment. Both US-based companies rely on imported materials and parts, even though they produce and source much of their equipment domestically. Illinois-based Deere &amp; Company, which produces heavy equipment for farming and construction, is forecasting further declines in income for 2026 after tariffs and a challenging agriculture market took a toll on performance this year. Deere anticipates a direct tariff expense of $1.2 billion for 2026 — roughly doubling the $600 million in tariff costs the company took on in 2025, according to its full-year earnings report issued Nov. 26. Deere’s tariff costs have amounted to about $300 million each quarter, and that rate is expected to continue in 2026, Investor Relations Director Josh Beal said during the company’s earnings call. “If you look at our price-cost expectation for 2026, inclusive of tariffs in that number, we expect to be price-cost positive.” he said. “We’ll start to capture back.” Deere lowered its 2026 income projections to a range of $4 billion to $4.8 billion after net income for the 2025 fiscal year fell $29% to $5 billion. Fourth-quarter net income dropped 14% to $1.1 billion compared to a year ago. “Looking ahead, we believe 2026 will mark the bottom of the large ag cycle,” CEO John May said in the company’s earnings statement. Deere executives pointed to indications of market stabilization, as well as optimism in other segments and geographies. “While ongoing margin pressures from tariffs and persistent challenges in the large ag sector remain, our commitment to inventory management and cost control — coupled with expected growth in small agriculture and turf and construction and forestry — positions us to effectively manage the business and seize emerging opportunities as market conditions begin to recover,” May said. Deere came out ahead of its revenue projections for the year, with annual revenues up 11% to $12.4 billion, above the company’s previous estimate of $9.8 billion. Higher shipment volumes drove up year-over-year sales in Deere’s construction and forestry equipment segment in the fourth quarter, up 27% to $3.4 billion. Chris Seibert, investor communications manager for Deere, said US government infrastructure spending continues to bolster the industry. “Additionally, declining interest rates, increasing investments in rental fleets and surging datacenter construction starts are also providing support,” Seibert said in the earnings call. <h3>Caterpillar sizes up power gen </h3>Caterpillar expects to close out 2025 with “modestly higher” sales than last year resulting from rising equipment demands for artificial intelligence (AI) data centers, even as the company anticipates higher tariff expenses than previously projected, according to Caterpillar’s third-quarter earnings results. “We expect strong growth in full-year sales for power generation compared to last year,” Caterpillar COO Joseph Creed said during the company’s third-quarter earnings call. “Demand remains robust, driven by data center growth related to cloud computing and generative AI.” The company’s order backlog reached a record $39.8 billion, while sales and revenue grew 10% to $17.6 billion in the most recent quarter. The biggest gains came from the company’s power generation segment, with a 33% increase driven primarily by demand for reciprocating engines for data centers. Caterpillar is planning a $725 million expansion of its large-engine facility in Lafayette, Indiana, to increase production of power generators. Tariffs took a toll across all business segments for Caterpillar, which produces construction and mining equipment, as well as diesel- and gas-powered turbines and engines. Caterpillar raised its tariff impact estimates to a range of $1.6 billion to $1.75 billion for 2025, up from previous projections of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion. “Our team is continuously evaluating options to further reduce the impact of tariffs going forward, and we fully intend to implement longer-term actions once there’s sufficient certainty,” Creed said. Contact Autumn Cafiero Giusti at <a href="mailto:autumn@autumngiusti.com">autumn@autumngiusti.com</a>. </div>

Caterpillar and Deere are bracing for another hit from US import tariffs in 2026, but the two heavy equipment makers are also looking to the data center boom and other large-scale construction projects as opportunities to drive up business. As key global manufacturers of high and heavy cargo, Caterpillar and Deere are considered performance indicators for the roll-on/roll-off (ro/ro) breakbulk shipping segment. Both US-based companies rely on imported materials and parts, even though they produce and source much of their equipment domestically. Illinois-based Deere & Company, which produces heavy equipment for farming and construction, is forecasting further declines in income for 2026 after tariffs and a challenging agriculture market took a toll on performance this year. Deere anticipates a direct tariff expense of $1.2 billion for 2026 — roughly doubling the $600 million in tariff costs the company took on in 2025, according to its full-year earnings report issued Nov. 26. Deere’s tariff costs have amounted to about $300 million each quarter, and that rate is expected to continue in 2026, Investor Relations Director Josh Beal said during the company’s earnings call. “If you look at our price-cost expectation for 2026, inclusive of tariffs in that number, we expect to be price-cost positive.” he said. “We’ll start to capture back.” Deere lowered its 2026 income projections to a range of $4 billion to $4.8 billion after net income for the 2025 fiscal year fell $29% to $5 billion. Fourth-quarter net income dropped 14% to $1.1 billion compared to a year ago. “Looking ahead, we believe 2026 will mark the bottom of the large ag cycle,” CEO John May said in the company’s earnings statement. Deere executives pointed to indications of market stabilization, as well as optimism in other segments and geographies. “While ongoing margin pressures from tariffs and persistent challenges in the large ag sector remain, our commitment to inventory management and cost control — coupled with expected growth in small agriculture and turf and construction and forestry — positions us to effectively manage the business and seize emerging opportunities as market conditions begin to recover,” May said. Deere came out ahead of its revenue projections for the year, with annual revenues up 11% to $12.4 billion, above the company’s previous estimate of $9.8 billion. Higher shipment volumes drove up year-over-year sales in Deere’s construction and forestry equipment segment in the fourth quarter, up 27% to $3.4 billion. Chris Seibert, investor communications manager for Deere, said US government infrastructure spending continues to bolster the industry. “Additionally, declining interest rates, increasing investments in rental fleets and surging datacenter construction starts are also providing support,” Seibert said in the earnings call. Caterpillar sizes up power gen Caterpillar expects to close out 2025 with “modestly higher” sales than last year resulting from rising equipment demands for artificial intelligence (AI) data centers, even as the company anticipates higher tariff expenses than previously projected, according to Caterpillar’s third-quarter earnings results. “We expect strong growth in full-year sales for power generation compared to last year,” Caterpillar COO Joseph Creed said during the company’s third-quarter earnings call. “Demand remains robust, driven by data center growth related to cloud computing and generative AI.” The company’s order backlog reached a record $39.8 billion, while sales and revenue grew 10% to $17.6 billion in the most recent quarter. The biggest gains came from the company’s power generation segment, with a 33% increase driven primarily by demand for reciprocating engines for data centers. Caterpillar is planning a $725 million expansion of its large-engine facility in Lafayette, Indiana, to increase production of power generators. Tariffs took a toll across all business segments for Caterpillar, which produces construction and mining equipment, as well as diesel- and gas-powered turbines and engines. Caterpillar raised its tariff impact estimates to a range of $1.6 billion to $1.75 billion for 2025, up from previous projections of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion. “Our team is continuously evaluating options to further reduce the impact of tariffs going forward, and we fully intend to implement longer-term actions once there’s sufficient certainty,” Creed said. Contact Autumn Cafiero Giusti at autumn@autumngiusti.com .

Ro/ro cargo

Breakbulk News

Maritime

Tariff costs, data center demand create mixed outlook for ro/ro shippers in 2026

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Digital Container Shipping Association’s partnership program has grown in the last month, with the global home furnishings retailer following last week’s addition of European vessel operator Unifeeder.</div>

The Digital Container Shipping Association’s partnership program has grown in the last month, with the global home furnishings retailer following last week’s addition of European vessel operator Unifeeder.

<div class="phx-topic">IKEA on Tuesday joined the Digital Container Shipping Association’s (DCSA) partnership program, becoming the first shipper added to a growing list of carriers, forwarders, terminals, feeders and technology providers involved in the program. In joining the DCSA+ program, IKEA Supply AG, which is responsible for the flow of IKEA products from suppliers to franchisees worldwide, said it is aiming to ship more sustainably and predictably by advancing the digital standards that DCSA has developed for its members and other industry participants. “By joining DCSA+, we can help create digital solutions that make it easier for everyone involved to share information, improve transparency, and in the end deliver better shopping experiences for IKEA customers around the world by making sure our products are available where and when they need them at an affordable price,” Ewelina Taylor, global transport manager at Inter IKEA Group, said in a statement. IKEA joins Unifeeder, Europe’s largest shortsea and feeder operator and part of DP World, as <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/unifeeder-adds-scale-to-dcsas-partnership-program-6123850">recent entrants to the DCSA+ program</a>, which has more than a dozen participants, including logistics software vendors WNS and Vinturas, the Port of Valencia and Lufthansa Industry Solutions. Adding a shipper to its ecosystem is an important step for DCSA, which for years has been encouraging shippers to press their ocean carrier and 3PL partners to adopt the standards the consortium has developed around cargo tracking, electronic bills of lading, just-in-time port calls, schedules and more. “Having a global category leader engage directly in this work validates the relevance of the DCSA+ model and strengthens collaboration between cargo owners and carriers as we move toward consistent digital practices across the industry,” Mariana Bock-Losada, chief growth officer at DCSA, said in the statement. DCSA last month launched an <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/dcsa-broadens-reach-with-identity-exchange-for-shipping-industry-6119020">identity exchange tool</a> for companies in the logistics industry to manage internal compliance checks, its first such product. The ocean carrier members of DCSA are Mediterranean Shipping Co., Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk, CMA CGM, Evergreen, HMM, Yang Ming, Zim Integrated Shipping Services and PIL. Contact Eric Johnson at <a href="mailto:eric.johnson@spglobal.com">eric.johnson@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

IKEA on Tuesday joined the Digital Container Shipping Association’s (DCSA) partnership program, becoming the first shipper added to a growing list of carriers, forwarders, terminals, feeders and technology providers involved in the program. In joining the DCSA+ program, IKEA Supply AG, which is responsible for the flow of IKEA products from suppliers to franchisees worldwide, said it is aiming to ship more sustainably and predictably by advancing the digital standards that DCSA has developed for its members and other industry participants. “By joining DCSA+, we can help create digital solutions that make it easier for everyone involved to share information, improve transparency, and in the end deliver better shopping experiences for IKEA customers around the world by making sure our products are available where and when they need them at an affordable price,” Ewelina Taylor, global transport manager at Inter IKEA Group, said in a statement. IKEA joins Unifeeder, Europe’s largest shortsea and feeder operator and part of DP World, as recent entrants to the DCSA+ program , which has more than a dozen participants, including logistics software vendors WNS and Vinturas, the Port of Valencia and Lufthansa Industry Solutions. Adding a shipper to its ecosystem is an important step for DCSA, which for years has been encouraging shippers to press their ocean carrier and 3PL partners to adopt the standards the consortium has developed around cargo tracking, electronic bills of lading, just-in-time port calls, schedules and more. “Having a global category leader engage directly in this work validates the relevance of the DCSA+ model and strengthens collaboration between cargo owners and carriers as we move toward consistent digital practices across the industry,” Mariana Bock-Losada, chief growth officer at DCSA, said in the statement. DCSA last month launched an identity exchange tool for companies in the logistics industry to manage internal compliance checks, its first such product. The ocean carrier members of DCSA are Mediterranean Shipping Co., Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk, CMA CGM, Evergreen, HMM, Yang Ming, Zim Integrated Shipping Services and PIL. Contact Eric Johnson at eric.johnson@spglobal.com .

Logistics Technology News

Container Shipping News

IKEA becomes first shipper to join carrier digital consortium program

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Ocean carriers and terminal stakeholders at Sri Lanka’s Colombo Port are dealing with operational chaos that resulted from a three-day shutdown caused by Cyclone Ditwah, said to be the strongest storm to have struck the country in nearly a decade.</div>

Ocean carriers and terminal stakeholders at Sri Lanka’s Colombo Port are dealing with operational chaos that resulted from a three-day shutdown caused by Cyclone Ditwah, said to be the strongest storm to have struck the country in nearly a decade.

<div class="phx-topic">Several parts of Southeast Asia have been through extreme weather events over the past week or so, causing widespread transport network disruptions, both quayside and inland. Ocean carriers and terminal stakeholders at Sri Lanka’s Colombo Port are dealing with operational chaos that resulted from a three-day shutdown caused by Cyclone Ditwah, said to be the strongest storm to have struck the country in nearly a decade. Colombo – South Asia’s leading container hub – on Nov. 26 suspended all operations in response to a government weather advisory. The port reopened to traffic Saturday morning, facing a long queue of ships to be serviced. As the backlog of anchored vessels slowly eases, sources put average berthing delays across Colombo terminals as of Tuesday at two to three days. “While yard occupancy is at a manageable level, restoring normal vessel windows could take several days after a 72-hour marine halt,” a Colombo terminal executive who didn’t want to be identified told the Journal of Commerce. “Inter-terminal container movements are now smooth due to low on-dock volumes.” The port authority has allowed cargo owners additional free days to clear stranded boxes, but inland freight services into Sri Lanka’s interior remain hobbled by damaged rail and road links, sources say. In India, while no port closures have been declared along the east coast that is facing a bout of stormy weather over the last two days, local shipping sources have reported delays to vessel sailings and cargo flows across main gateways in the region, including Chennai, Tuticorin, Ennore and Kattupalli. “Terminals are operating at a slower pace due to challenging conditions,” said a Chennai-based ship agent. Weather has also been a major concern for supply chain and business stakeholders across Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand, according to reports. “The floods have resulted in some road closures, likely impacting container traffic to and from Port Klang,” global forwarder Kuehne + Nagel said in a report. “As a result, there have been requests to extend the timeline for laden containers to be turned into the port.” Contact Bency Mathew at <a href="mailto:bencyvmathew@gmail.com">bencyvmathew@gmail.com.</a></div>

Several parts of Southeast Asia have been through extreme weather events over the past week or so, causing widespread transport network disruptions, both quayside and inland. Ocean carriers and terminal stakeholders at Sri Lanka’s Colombo Port are dealing with operational chaos that resulted from a three-day shutdown caused by Cyclone Ditwah, said to be the strongest storm to have struck the country in nearly a decade. Colombo – South Asia’s leading container hub – on Nov. 26 suspended all operations in response to a government weather advisory. The port reopened to traffic Saturday morning, facing a long queue of ships to be serviced. As the backlog of anchored vessels slowly eases, sources put average berthing delays across Colombo terminals as of Tuesday at two to three days. “While yard occupancy is at a manageable level, restoring normal vessel windows could take several days after a 72-hour marine halt,” a Colombo terminal executive who didn’t want to be identified told the Journal of Commerce. “Inter-terminal container movements are now smooth due to low on-dock volumes.” The port authority has allowed cargo owners additional free days to clear stranded boxes, but inland freight services into Sri Lanka’s interior remain hobbled by damaged rail and road links, sources say. In India, while no port closures have been declared along the east coast that is facing a bout of stormy weather over the last two days, local shipping sources have reported delays to vessel sailings and cargo flows across main gateways in the region, including Chennai, Tuticorin, Ennore and Kattupalli. “Terminals are operating at a slower pace due to challenging conditions,” said a Chennai-based ship agent. Weather has also been a major concern for supply chain and business stakeholders across Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand, according to reports. “The floods have resulted in some road closures, likely impacting container traffic to and from Port Klang,” global forwarder Kuehne + Nagel said in a report. “As a result, there have been requests to extend the timeline for laden containers to be turned into the port.” Contact Bency Mathew at bencyvmathew@gmail.com.

Port News

Marine terminals

International ports

Severe storms swamp Southeast Asia supply chains, with Colombo hardest hit

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The conflicting interests became apparent last week when the Suez Canal Authority issued a statement indicating that Maersk planned to resume normal transits in December, triggering a quick response from the carrier that no timeline had been set. </div>

The conflicting interests became apparent last week when the Suez Canal Authority issued a statement indicating that Maersk planned to resume normal transits in December, triggering a quick response from the carrier that no timeline had been set.

<div class="phx-topic">Geopolitical forces favoring the resumption of container trade through the Red Sea and the corresponding commercial reluctance to do so are converging after nearly two years of most ships diverting around southern Africa to avoid attacks by Houthi militants. The conflicting interests became apparent in late November when the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) issued a statement indicating that Maersk planned to resume normal transits in December, triggering a quick response from the carrier that no timeline had been set. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6126957_0.1.jpg"></img></div>But the contours of a clash are taking shape. Facing monthly losses of $800 million, Egypt President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi said earlier this year the country desperately wants full use of the canal to resume without further delay. After exerting little influence to reopen the Canal, Egypt saw fresh hope after the Oct. 13 Israel-Hamas peace summit in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, attended by Sisi, US President Donald Trump and representatives of 20 countries. The SCA on Nov. 25 said the event “succeeded in paving the way for restoring the rates of traffic in the region back to normal.” Despite the pushback by Maersk and its Gemini partner Hapag-Lloyd, the peace conference was potentially significant regarding the Suez. The conference endorsed the October agreement between Hamas and Israel to end the war in Gaza, the hostilities that led the Houthis to start firing on shipping in late 2023. So, in theory, the end of active fighting between Israel and Hamas should end the attacks and fully reopen the waterway. But it’s not so simple. Mideast analysts have little confidence that hostilities have truly ended, and thus say the pause in attacks by the Houthis disclosed in early November is in fact not permanent. The tenuous nature of Mideast peace was reflected in ships failing to return to the Red Sea following a May announcement by Trump of a deal with the Houthis, under which the US would stop bombing the Iran-aligned group and the militants would stop menacing ships seeking to transit the Red Sea and Suez Canal. <h3>Carriers’ views are complex </h3>Carriers say they believe the Suez is the natural route connecting Asia and Europe. CMA CGM Egypt &amp; Sudan Cluster CEO Tariq Zaghloul was quoted by the Canal authority in early November saying “there is no alternative to the Suez.” But carriers are also disinclined to resume normal transits and perform extensive reworking of their networks, including transshipment points, only to have to re-divert if shipping were to come under renewed attack. Thus, in assessing the real situation, they have thus far concluded that not enough has changed to warrant resumption of normal routings between Asia and Europe and Asia and the North American East Coast. “The Houthi decision to pause attacks is probably a tactical decision to allow the group to rearm and rebuild damaged infrastructure,” Jack Kennedy, head of Middle East and North Africa country risk at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, wrote on Nov. 12 in an assessment he said is unchanged as of Nov. 26. “Although it reduces the likelihood of attacks on shipping while the Gaza ceasefire holds, there remains a severe risk of attacks on vessels in transit in the one-year outlook if, as is likely, the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel breaks down permanently without progressing to its later stages,” Kennedy said. There are reasons why it is to the Houthi’s advantage to continue the attacks, he said. “The Houthis have incentive to continue some level of attack activity in the Red Sea and against Israel in the one-year outlook in order to secure external financial and military support and to continue to generate domestic support within Yemen,” Kennedy said. S&amp;P Global is the parent company of the Journal of Commerce. With the ongoing diversions serving as stark evidence that Mideast peace is tenuous, Egypt — in citing the peace conference as having cleared the way to normal transits — is hoping to draw a straight line between geopolitics and the ongoing diversions. And they are hoping the US draws the same line, seeing the issue in big picture terms and rejecting obstacles tied to the operational realities of shipping. “If the [Trump] administration links the canal disruption directly to their broader peace deal efforts in the Middle East, they could ramp up the regulatory or diplomatic playbook,” said Andrew Petrisin, who served as deputy assistant secretary for multimodal freight within the US Department of Transportation from June 2024 to January 2025 and is now CEO of Laneway, an online platform that enables the trading of guaranteed container space. Petrisin told the Journal of Commerce the White House, in an effort to pressure carriers to resume transits through the Suez, could try to frame the vessel diversions as causing rising costs for consumers. “If they decide that avoiding the Suez is driving inflation, given the recent election results and the focus on affordability, they may try to frame the carriers’ safety decisions as raising prices,” Petrisin said. “Politically, this angle is an easier sell than a complex argument about how commercial shipping impacts a peace treaty.” Economists have previously told the Journal of Commerce they see no evidence in data that the diversions are impacting inflation in the US. Any effort to point the finger at ocean carriers would echo the Biden administration’s rhetoric blaming carriers for price gouging during the pandemic. <h3>US security guarantees? </h3>From the point of view of carriers, their reluctance to resume Suez transits remains high due to safety risks. The financial advantage of vessel diversions, never mentioned by carriers, is a consideration in the background given that resumption of Suez transits would dump about 10% of global capacity back into the market and soften freight rates, although the effect would be muted over several months by the extensive port congestion many believe would result from a massive realignment of East-West networks. “There are many pieces to fall in place before they can [resume Suez transits], and insurance is one factor,” said Patrick Fay, CEO of BOC International. Thus, according to industry sources, resuming Suez transits would likely require more than mere rhetoric from the US administration. For example, the US would likely have to put security guarantees in place beyond what it has already done, perhaps increasing its naval presence in the region, industry sources say. But that would run into a view expressed by Mideast analysts that the Houthis are too agile and dug in within Yemen to be eliminated as a military threat to shipping. And if efforts were made by the US to impose fines on carriers for not using the Suez, were it to come to that, carriers would resist, Petrisin believes. “I don’t see a world where they risk the safety of their people and fleets for fear of a port fee,” he said. Contact Peter Tirschwell at <a href="mailto:peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com">peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Geopolitical forces favoring the resumption of container trade through the Red Sea and the corresponding commercial reluctance to do so are converging after nearly two years of most ships diverting around southern Africa to avoid attacks by Houthi militants. The conflicting interests became apparent in late November when the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) issued a statement indicating that Maersk planned to resume normal transits in December, triggering a quick response from the carrier that no timeline had been set. But the contours of a clash are taking shape. Facing monthly losses of $800 million, Egypt President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi said earlier this year the country desperately wants full use of the canal to resume without further delay. After exerting little influence to reopen the Canal, Egypt saw fresh hope after the Oct. 13 Israel-Hamas peace summit in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, attended by Sisi, US President Donald Trump and representatives of 20 countries. The SCA on Nov. 25 said the event “succeeded in paving the way for restoring the rates of traffic in the region back to normal.” Despite the pushback by Maersk and its Gemini partner Hapag-Lloyd, the peace conference was potentially significant regarding the Suez. The conference endorsed the October agreement between Hamas and Israel to end the war in Gaza, the hostilities that led the Houthis to start firing on shipping in late 2023. So, in theory, the end of active fighting between Israel and Hamas should end the attacks and fully reopen the waterway. But it’s not so simple. Mideast analysts have little confidence that hostilities have truly ended, and thus say the pause in attacks by the Houthis disclosed in early November is in fact not permanent. The tenuous nature of Mideast peace was reflected in ships failing to return to the Red Sea following a May announcement by Trump of a deal with the Houthis, under which the US would stop bombing the Iran-aligned group and the militants would stop menacing ships seeking to transit the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Carriers’ views are complex Carriers say they believe the Suez is the natural route connecting Asia and Europe. CMA CGM Egypt & Sudan Cluster CEO Tariq Zaghloul was quoted by the Canal authority in early November saying “there is no alternative to the Suez.” But carriers are also disinclined to resume normal transits and perform extensive reworking of their networks, including transshipment points, only to have to re-divert if shipping were to come under renewed attack. Thus, in assessing the real situation, they have thus far concluded that not enough has changed to warrant resumption of normal routings between Asia and Europe and Asia and the North American East Coast. “The Houthi decision to pause attacks is probably a tactical decision to allow the group to rearm and rebuild damaged infrastructure,” Jack Kennedy, head of Middle East and North Africa country risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence, wrote on Nov. 12 in an assessment he said is unchanged as of Nov. 26. “Although it reduces the likelihood of attacks on shipping while the Gaza ceasefire holds, there remains a severe risk of attacks on vessels in transit in the one-year outlook if, as is likely, the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel breaks down permanently without progressing to its later stages,” Kennedy said. There are reasons why it is to the Houthi’s advantage to continue the attacks, he said. “The Houthis have incentive to continue some level of attack activity in the Red Sea and against Israel in the one-year outlook in order to secure external financial and military support and to continue to generate domestic support within Yemen,” Kennedy said. S&P Global is the parent company of the Journal of Commerce. With the ongoing diversions serving as stark evidence that Mideast peace is tenuous, Egypt — in citing the peace conference as having cleared the way to normal transits — is hoping to draw a straight line between geopolitics and the ongoing diversions. And they are hoping the US draws the same line, seeing the issue in big picture terms and rejecting obstacles tied to the operational realities of shipping. “If the [Trump] administration links the canal disruption directly to their broader peace deal efforts in the Middle East, they could ramp up the regulatory or diplomatic playbook,” said Andrew Petrisin, who served as deputy assistant secretary for multimodal freight within the US Department of Transportation from June 2024 to January 2025 and is now CEO of Laneway, an online platform that enables the trading of guaranteed container space. Petrisin told the Journal of Commerce the White House, in an effort to pressure carriers to resume transits through the Suez, could try to frame the vessel diversions as causing rising costs for consumers. “If they decide that avoiding the Suez is driving inflation, given the recent election results and the focus on affordability, they may try to frame the carriers’ safety decisions as raising prices,” Petrisin said. “Politically, this angle is an easier sell than a complex argument about how commercial shipping impacts a peace treaty.” Economists have previously told the Journal of Commerce they see no evidence in data that the diversions are impacting inflation in the US. Any effort to point the finger at ocean carriers would echo the Biden administration’s rhetoric blaming carriers for price gouging during the pandemic. US security guarantees? From the point of view of carriers, their reluctance to resume Suez transits remains high due to safety risks. The financial advantage of vessel diversions, never mentioned by carriers, is a consideration in the background given that resumption of Suez transits would dump about 10% of global capacity back into the market and soften freight rates, although the effect would be muted over several months by the extensive port congestion many believe would result from a massive realignment of East-West networks. “There are many pieces to fall in place before they can [resume Suez transits], and insurance is one factor,” said Patrick Fay, CEO of BOC International. Thus, according to industry sources, resuming Suez transits would likely require more than mere rhetoric from the US administration. For example, the US would likely have to put security guarantees in place beyond what it has already done, perhaps increasing its naval presence in the region, industry sources say. But that would run into a view expressed by Mideast analysts that the Houthis are too agile and dug in within Yemen to be eliminated as a military threat to shipping. And if efforts were made by the US to impose fines on carriers for not using the Suez, were it to come to that, carriers would resist, Petrisin believes. “I don’t see a world where they risk the safety of their people and fleets for fear of a port fee,” he said. Contact Peter Tirschwell at peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com .

Container lines

Asia-Europe

Complexity of resumption of Suez transits beginning to take shape

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">First-quarter charges will rise across all trade lanes that cover the European Union from Jan. 1, when carriers will be responsible for 100% of their carbon emissions. </div>

First-quarter charges will rise across all trade lanes that cover the European Union from Jan. 1, when carriers will be responsible for 100% of their carbon emissions.

<div class="phx-topic">The cost of ocean carriers complying with evolving European Union emissions regulations will rise significantly from Jan. 1, with some shipping companies advising cargo owners of increases in emissions surcharges in excess of 50%. From 2026, the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) will require shipping lines to account for 100% of carbon emissions, up from 70% in 2025, as part of its phased rollout. Under the ETS “cap and trade” system, carriers must buy or receive allowances to cover their emissions. The average price of European Union Allowances (EUAs) over the three months to Nov. 15 were assessed by Maersk as €76.75 ($89.13). Based on that calculation, Maersk announced that from Jan. 1, its first-quarter “emissions surcharge” will rise across all trade lanes that cover the European Union, with increases on some trade lanes topping 50%. Among the Maersk trade lanes affected in the first quarter are Asia-North Europe, where ETS charges will rise from $114 to $168 per FEU; Asia to the Mediterranean from $80 to $130/FEU, the Mediterranean to North America from $151 to $236/FEU and North Europe to US from $89 to $139/FEU. Also increasing is the cost of compliance with the FuelEU Maritime regulation, under which carriers must gradually reduce the greenhouse gas intensity in fuels; those costs are included in the emissions surcharge. Maersk noted that FuelEU costs were up because rising biofuel costs combined with declining fossil fuel prices were making compliance more expensive. <h3>Direct impact on cost structure </h3>Maersk’s partner in the Gemini Cooperation alliance, Hapag-Lloyd, includes ETS and FuelEU costs in its EU ETS surcharge; the Hamburg-based carrier estimates the surcharge will rise 45% on Jan. 1. CMA CGM said in a customer advisory Monday it was anticipating a surcharge increase of 43%, with Europe’s 100% implementation of the ETS having a direct impact on its cost structure. The surcharges will be levied under CMA CGM’s “energy transition surcharge” and vary across different trade lanes involving European ports. For example, the ETS surcharge on Shanghai-Rotterdam in the first quarter will rise by almost $50 to $168/FEU from Jan. 1. Ocean Network Express (ONE) announced its “Europe environmental surcharge [EES]” that will increase from $134 to $186/FEU on Asia/Oceania to Europe trades, from $172 to $266/FEU on West Asia to the Mediterranean, and from $88 to $122/FEU on Europe-North America routes. On all bookings from China, excluding Hong Kong, the carriers will add ETS surcharges to the base freight rate for regulatory reasons; the same is true on bookings from Taiwan. “Instead of a surcharge, the EES portion will be incorporated and considered as a part of freight,” ONE said in its customer advisory. The carriers, in their customer advisories, used the surcharge-raising opportunity to market their lower emissions services that predominantly use biofuel under a “mass balance” approach that governs the chain of custody. Cargo moved under premium priced services such as Maersk’s ECO Delivery, Hapag-Lloyd's Ship Green or CMA CGM’s ACT+ can significantly reduce carbon emissions. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The cost of ocean carriers complying with evolving European Union emissions regulations will rise significantly from Jan. 1, with some shipping companies advising cargo owners of increases in emissions surcharges in excess of 50%. From 2026, the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) will require shipping lines to account for 100% of carbon emissions, up from 70% in 2025, as part of its phased rollout. Under the ETS “cap and trade” system, carriers must buy or receive allowances to cover their emissions. The average price of European Union Allowances (EUAs) over the three months to Nov. 15 were assessed by Maersk as €76.75 ($89.13). Based on that calculation, Maersk announced that from Jan. 1, its first-quarter “emissions surcharge” will rise across all trade lanes that cover the European Union, with increases on some trade lanes topping 50%. Among the Maersk trade lanes affected in the first quarter are Asia-North Europe, where ETS charges will rise from $114 to $168 per FEU; Asia to the Mediterranean from $80 to $130/FEU, the Mediterranean to North America from $151 to $236/FEU and North Europe to US from $89 to $139/FEU. Also increasing is the cost of compliance with the FuelEU Maritime regulation, under which carriers must gradually reduce the greenhouse gas intensity in fuels; those costs are included in the emissions surcharge. Maersk noted that FuelEU costs were up because rising biofuel costs combined with declining fossil fuel prices were making compliance more expensive. Direct impact on cost structure Maersk’s partner in the Gemini Cooperation alliance, Hapag-Lloyd, includes ETS and FuelEU costs in its EU ETS surcharge; the Hamburg-based carrier estimates the surcharge will rise 45% on Jan. 1. CMA CGM said in a customer advisory Monday it was anticipating a surcharge increase of 43%, with Europe’s 100% implementation of the ETS having a direct impact on its cost structure. The surcharges will be levied under CMA CGM’s “energy transition surcharge” and vary across different trade lanes involving European ports. For example, the ETS surcharge on Shanghai-Rotterdam in the first quarter will rise by almost $50 to $168/FEU from Jan. 1. Ocean Network Express (ONE) announced its “Europe environmental surcharge [EES]” that will increase from $134 to $186/FEU on Asia/Oceania to Europe trades, from $172 to $266/FEU on West Asia to the Mediterranean, and from $88 to $122/FEU on Europe-North America routes. On all bookings from China, excluding Hong Kong, the carriers will add ETS surcharges to the base freight rate for regulatory reasons; the same is true on bookings from Taiwan. “Instead of a surcharge, the EES portion will be incorporated and considered as a part of freight,” ONE said in its customer advisory. The carriers, in their customer advisories, used the surcharge-raising opportunity to market their lower emissions services that predominantly use biofuel under a “mass balance” approach that governs the chain of custody. Cargo moved under premium priced services such as Maersk’s ECO Delivery, Hapag-Lloyd's Ship Green or CMA CGM’s ACT+ can significantly reduce carbon emissions. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

Trans-Atlantic

Ocean carriers unveil hefty increases in Europe emissions surcharges

Use code GTW595 at checkout and save $900 on first year of an annual Gold subscription!

Upgrade Subscription - Gold Trials

Become a Gold Subscriber and Save!

Arm your team with the most trusted information portal for the international container shipping industry.

Group Subscriptions - Wide Box

Get into a group subscription today

Use code SSW30 at checkout to save 30% on a Silver or Silver Plus annual subscription! 

Subscribe Now - FT to S/SP - Wide Box

SEASON"S SAVINGS

Use code CMW595 and upgrade to Gold for just $595! Valid for first year of subscription.

Upgrade Subscription - S/SP to Gold - Wide Box

CYBER MONDAY SALE

Subscribe today using code SSW30 at checkout and save 30% on a Silver or Silver Plus annual subscription!

Subscribe Now - Anonymous to S/SP - Wide Box

SEASON'S SAVINGS

Access Journal of Commerce content for 30 days

Free Trial - Wide Box

START A FREE TRIAL TODAY

Use code SSW995 at checkout to save $500 on first year of a Gold subscription!

Subscribe Now - FT to Gold - Wide Box

Get into a Gold subscription today and save $500 by using code SSW995 at checkout!

Subscribe Now - Anonymous to Gold - Wide Box

The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

SMC3rates_shutterstock_5247046.jpg

Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

SMC3rates_shutterstock_5247046 (1).jpg

Filling the Supply Chain Education Gap with LTL Education Courses

START A FREE TRIAL: Access Journal of Commerce content for 30 days

Free Trial - Offer Box

Free Trial

SEASON'S SAVINGS: Use code SSW30 to save 30% on first year of a Silver or Silver Plus annual subscription!


Subscribe Now - FT to S/SP - Offer Box

Subscribe and Save

GET INTO A GROUP SUBSCRIPTION: Arm your team with unlimited Journal of Commerce content

Group Subscriptions - Offer Box

Group Subscriptions

SEASON'S SAVINGS: Subscribe today using code SSW30 at checkout and save 30% on a Silver or Silver Plus annual subscription!

Subscribe Now - Anonymous to S/SP - Offer Box

SUBSCRIBE TODAY

UPGRADE TO GOLD AND SAVE: Use code GTW595 at checkout and save $900 on first year of a Gold subscription!

Upgrade Subscription

SEASON'S SAVINGS: Get into a Gold subscription today and save $500 by using code SSW995 at checkout!

Subscribe Now - Anonymous to Gold - Offer Box

CYBER MONDAY SALE: Use code CMW595 and upgrade to Gold for just $595! Valid on first year of subscription.

Upgrade Subscription - S/SP to Gold - Offer Box

SEASON'S SAVINGS: Use code SSW995 at checkout to save $500 on a Gold subscription!

Subscribe Now - FT to Gold - Offer Box

SUBSCRIBE AND SAVE

Monthly publication providing an editorial deep dive into global supply chain news

Journal of Commerce Magazine - Rectangle Box

Journal of Commerce Magazine

A premium access index of savings using domestic intermodal vs. OTR 

ISI Report - Rectangle Box

Intermodal Savings Index

An in-depth analysis of transport trends in the multipurpose and heavy-lift fleet segment

Breakbulk Report - Rectangle Box

Breakbulk Quarterly

An extensive dashboard of charts organized by trade lane, mode, and topic

Gateway - Rectangle Box

Gateway

Customers scoring their intermodal partners to identify the best service providers

Intermodal Service Scorecard - Rectangle Box

Intermodal Service Scorecard

A premium access outlook critical to shippers and transportation providers

QI Report - Rectangle Box

Quarterly Intelligence

The premier conference for the global container shipping and supply chain community

TPM Conference - Rectangle Box

Attend TPM26

The only editorially independent conference for the breakbulk & project cargo industry

Latest News

More News & Analysis

Tariff costs, data center demand create mixed outlook for ro/ro shippers in 2026

IKEA becomes first shipper to join carrier digital consortium program

Severe storms swamp Southeast Asia supply chains, with Colombo hardest hit