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<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Wan Hai is now looking at a larger civil penalty than it faced nearly a year ago following an investigation into detention charges the carrier assessed in the spring of 2021.</div>

Wan Hai is now looking at a larger civil penalty than it faced nearly a year ago following an investigation into detention charges the carrier assessed in the spring of 2021.

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<div>Ocean carrier Wan Hai would pay a $950,000 fine under a proposed settlement involving claims it wrongfully charged US shippers detention penalties on 21 occasions in the spring of 2021, according to a revised agreement submitted to the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC). The penalty amount — up from an original $850,000 in May — comes after a 14-month investigation by the FMC’s Bureau of Enforcement, Investigations and Compliance (BOEIC). The new agreement was filed Monday with the FMC; the agency has 30 days to review the settlement. Under the agreement, Taiwan-based Wan Hai would also be forced to pay undisclosed...

Ocean carrier Wan Hai would pay a $950,000 fine under a proposed settlement involving claims it wrongfully charged US shippers detention penalties on 21 occasions in the spring of 2021, according to a revised agreement submitted to the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC). The penalty amount — up from an original $850,000 in May — comes after a 14-month investigation by the FMC’s Bureau of Enforcement, Investigations and Compliance (BOEIC). The new agreement was filed Monday with the FMC; the agency has 30 days to review the settlement. Under the agreement, Taiwan-based Wan Hai would also be forced to pay undisclosed restitution to the shippers in question and be limited from assessing any detention charges when containers cannot be returned. The commission’s decision to seek a higher civil penalty sends a message to other carriers that the agency will wield its awakened investigative power with force. BOEIC initially investigated Wan Hai in December 2021 for alleged shipping violations stemming from 21 detention charges it levied against shippers that were unable to return containers to the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach due to congestion. An initial proposed settlement in May 2022 between the carrier and the BOEIC called for an $850,000 fine and for Wan Hai to cease collection attempts on those 21 invoices. But the FMC rejected the settlement. Among the reasons for rejection, the agency said that asking shippers to take screenshots of available time slots to return containers contravened the provisions under shipping laws that shifted the burden of proof to the carrier, making them responsible for establishing the reasonableness of any detention and demurrage (D&D) charge. The updated settlement would further set limitations on Wan Hai’s assessment of detention charges, and the carrier must “cease and desist from knowingly assessing detention charges” in situations when it fails to provide an equipment return location, identify a return location that is not accepting chassis, or where appointments are unavailable for equipment return. Heightened scrutiny on carriers Carriers are under “constant investigation” by the FMC, Chairman Daniel Maffei said at the Journal of Commerce’s TPM23 conference in Long Beach last month. “They’re constantly monitored, moderated, and I really do think it’s more akin to a permanent investigation,” he said. Maffei told TPM23 attendees that while D&D cannot be eliminated, the FMC is working on a rule that will help restore the system’s credibility in order to incentivize cargo movement. “I think in many ways [detention and demurrage] had lost so much credibility with shippers that... [they started] just throwing up their hands and going, ‘It doesn’t matter what I do. I’m gonna get these charges,’” he said. In April 2022, the FMC ordered Hapag-Lloyd to pay $822,220 in civil damages — upped in June to $2 million — after the carrier was found to have improperly assessed detention charges to a California drayage provider. Contact Teri Errico Griffis at teri.griffis@spglobal.com .

Wan Hai faces $950,000 fine under revised FMC settlement over detention charges

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">New analysis shows a systematic displacement of tonnage from primary to secondary trade lanes has occurred over the past two years, while a shortage of capacity is looming over the smaller shipping segment. </div>

New analysis shows a systematic displacement of tonnage from primary to secondary trade lanes has occurred over the past two years, while a shortage of capacity is looming over the smaller shipping segment.

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<div class="phx-topic">The massive injection of larger vessels into the Asia–Europe and Asia–Mediterranean trades over the past two years has pushed smaller vessels into the trans-Atlantic and Latin America corridors, spreading structural overcapacity to secondary lanes. Yet, despite more than 1.7 million TEUs of new tonnage set to be delivered in 2026, mostly in the 15,000- to 24,000-TEU range, there's a growing mismatch in terms of the size of ships needed, with vessels in the sub-5,000-TEU segment — the backbone of intra-regional and feeder networks — aging rapidly, according to new analysis. A systematic displacement of tonnage from primary to secondary trade lanes over the past two years was driven by extreme outward pressure from the Red Sea diversions, drought in the Panama Canal and the reshuffling of alliances in the first half of 2025, according to Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis. “To maintain weekly service frequency while navigating the longer sailing distances on Asia–Europe, carriers were forced to inject significant additional tonnage into Asia–North Europe,” Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, wrote in this week’s Sunday Spotlight newsletter. The injection of so much capacity triggered a massive downstream effect. As carriers introduced new 24,000-TEU vessels into the extended North Europe services, the existing 14,000- to 20,000-TEU vessels were cascaded directly into the Asia–Mediterranean trade lane. In the trans-Pacific, the capacity management on the Asia–North America West and East coast trades through 2024 was operational in nature as carriers shuffled tonnage between the two trade lanes to mitigate Panama Canal draft restrictions, US port labor disruptions and the after-effects of the pandemic-induced volatility. The net effect was high movement of ships but not much change in capacity. Then in February of this year, the launch of new alliance structures — Gemini Cooperation, Premier Alliance and Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC) as a standalone venture — provided the catalyst for a massive network shakeup, Sea-Intelligence noted. Carriers broke up established service loops and repositioned vessels globally to fit the new service networks. Volatile demand on Asia–North America West Coast saw a net reduction of 427,432 TEUs in the first half of 2025 as carriers blanked sailings to try to support rates, Murphy noted in the Sunday Spotlight. At the same time, the rapid growth on Asia–Mediterranean subsided, with Murphy surmising that after 18 months of absorbing cascaded tonnage from Asia–North Europe, the trade lane had likely reached a saturation point. In the first half of this year, the net capacity growth into Asia–Mediterranean decelerated by 79% compared to 2024. <h3>Steady operational state </h3>By the second half of 2025, the new alliance networks had reached a relatively steady operational state with the Mediterranean–North America East Coast trade lane emerging as a key cascading corridor, absorbing 127,686 TEUs in the second half, with most of that capacity from the Asia–Mediterranean trade, the Sunday Spotlight noted. A total of 14 vessels were shifted in the second half, 11 of those of 14,000 to 15,000 TEUs. Asia–East Coast South America was the next biggest net gainer in the second half, absorbing 112,998 TEUs. Most of that was from the two Asia–North America trade lanes that cascaded a combined 283,946 TEUs. A total of 32 vessels were shifted, with 72% of them in the 8,000- to 14,000-TEU segment. But Murphy noted that the nature of the growth in capacity was fundamentally different from the previous year, with 97% of the vessels entering the Asia–East Coast South America trade taking up permanent employment there and not being returned to their previous routes. “This meant that Asia–ECSA became a seemingly preferred destination for mid-size tonnage of 8,000-14,000 TEU vessels that had been cycled out of the main east-west trade lanes,” he said. As the dust settles from the alliance reshuffling of capacity, new analysis from consultancy MDS Transmodal notes that should carriers return to large-scale Red Sea transits, it will expose the imbalance that has built up in the global fleet over the past few years. “While much of the industry has focused on the temporary capacity absorption created by rerouting around Africa, the underlying fundamentals point to something far more persistent: a container fleet that is oversupplied at the top end but increasingly shrinking at the bottom,” Antonella Teodoro, senior consultant at MDS Transmodal, noted in her analysis titled The Post–Red Sea Fleet Paradox: Oversupply at the Top, Shortages at the Bottom. “As diversions unwind and new ships continue to arrive, the industry faces two very different capacity problems — one defined by excess, the other by scarcity,” Teodoro said. <h3>Small ships crucial to regional segment </h3>In 2025, the capacity ordered in the 10,000- to 20,000-TEU bracket was 1.6 million TEUs and the ships greater than 20,000 TEUs comprised 1.3 million TEUs. By contrast, in the less-than 5,000-TEU segment, the 2025 orderbook was at 442,182 TEUs, according to Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Teodoro said the sub-5,000-TEU segment was crucial for the intra-regional and feeder networks, but more than 60% of the vessels were at least 25 years old or more, making them prime scrapping candidates. Yet the orderbook in these size categories was almost non-existent. “By 2030, the global fleet below 2,500 TEUs could contract by 40% to 80%, with the 500- to 999-TEU category almost disappearing entirely,” she said. “This matters because many port systems depend on these vessels in a way that cannot be substituted...by larger tonnage, regardless of how cheap or abundant it becomes.” <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="5ea90874-1017-4ee9-a80c-de2dfc51d88b"></dynamic-object></div>Alphaliner shipping analyst Mael Pape-Léostic said in the sub-5,000-TEU bracket there are 593 vessels that are 25 years old or older out of 4,473 ships currently trading, 13% of the fleet. In the sub-2,500-TEU segment, 17% of the trading fleet is 25 years old or older. "After a first wave of orders mainly focusing on large ships, we saw carriers this year in particular ordering smaller units with a high interest for specific classes like Bangkokmax [1,700-1,900 TEUs] and Chittagongmax [2,800 TEUs],” Pape-Léostic told the Journal of Commerce. “The ships of smaller segments of the market are aging, but it seems that carriers and non-operating owners are now in the process of rejuvenating this fleet after having focused on mainliners,” he added. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The massive injection of larger vessels into the Asia–Europe and Asia–Mediterranean trades over the past two years has pushed smaller vessels into the trans-Atlantic and Latin America corridors, spreading structural overcapacity to secondary lanes. Yet, despite more than 1.7 million TEUs of new tonnage set to be delivered in 2026, mostly in the 15,000- to 24,000-TEU range, there's a growing mismatch in terms of the size of ships needed, with vessels in the sub-5,000-TEU segment — the backbone of intra-regional and feeder networks — aging rapidly, according to new analysis. A systematic displacement of tonnage from primary to secondary trade lanes over the past two years was driven by extreme outward pressure from the Red Sea diversions, drought in the Panama Canal and the reshuffling of alliances in the first half of 2025, according to Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis. “To maintain weekly service frequency while navigating the longer sailing distances on Asia–Europe, carriers were forced to inject significant additional tonnage into Asia–North Europe,” Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, wrote in this week’s Sunday Spotlight newsletter. The injection of so much capacity triggered a massive downstream effect. As carriers introduced new 24,000-TEU vessels into the extended North Europe services, the existing 14,000- to 20,000-TEU vessels were cascaded directly into the Asia–Mediterranean trade lane. In the trans-Pacific, the capacity management on the Asia–North America West and East coast trades through 2024 was operational in nature as carriers shuffled tonnage between the two trade lanes to mitigate Panama Canal draft restrictions, US port labor disruptions and the after-effects of the pandemic-induced volatility. The net effect was high movement of ships but not much change in capacity. Then in February of this year, the launch of new alliance structures — Gemini Cooperation, Premier Alliance and Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC) as a standalone venture — provided the catalyst for a massive network shakeup, Sea-Intelligence noted. Carriers broke up established service loops and repositioned vessels globally to fit the new service networks. Volatile demand on Asia–North America West Coast saw a net reduction of 427,432 TEUs in the first half of 2025 as carriers blanked sailings to try to support rates, Murphy noted in the Sunday Spotlight. At the same time, the rapid growth on Asia–Mediterranean subsided, with Murphy surmising that after 18 months of absorbing cascaded tonnage from Asia–North Europe, the trade lane had likely reached a saturation point. In the first half of this year, the net capacity growth into Asia–Mediterranean decelerated by 79% compared to 2024. Steady operational state By the second half of 2025, the new alliance networks had reached a relatively steady operational state with the Mediterranean–North America East Coast trade lane emerging as a key cascading corridor, absorbing 127,686 TEUs in the second half, with most of that capacity from the Asia–Mediterranean trade, the Sunday Spotlight noted. A total of 14 vessels were shifted in the second half, 11 of those of 14,000 to 15,000 TEUs. Asia–East Coast South America was the next biggest net gainer in the second half, absorbing 112,998 TEUs. Most of that was from the two Asia–North America trade lanes that cascaded a combined 283,946 TEUs. A total of 32 vessels were shifted, with 72% of them in the 8,000- to 14,000-TEU segment. But Murphy noted that the nature of the growth in capacity was fundamentally different from the previous year, with 97% of the vessels entering the Asia–East Coast South America trade taking up permanent employment there and not being returned to their previous routes. “This meant that Asia–ECSA became a seemingly preferred destination for mid-size tonnage of 8,000-14,000 TEU vessels that had been cycled out of the main east-west trade lanes,” he said. As the dust settles from the alliance reshuffling of capacity, new analysis from consultancy MDS Transmodal notes that should carriers return to large-scale Red Sea transits, it will expose the imbalance that has built up in the global fleet over the past few years. “While much of the industry has focused on the temporary capacity absorption created by rerouting around Africa, the underlying fundamentals point to something far more persistent: a container fleet that is oversupplied at the top end but increasingly shrinking at the bottom,” Antonella Teodoro, senior consultant at MDS Transmodal, noted in her analysis titled The Post–Red Sea Fleet Paradox: Oversupply at the Top, Shortages at the Bottom. “As diversions unwind and new ships continue to arrive, the industry faces two very different capacity problems — one defined by excess, the other by scarcity,” Teodoro said. Small ships crucial to regional segment In 2025, the capacity ordered in the 10,000- to 20,000-TEU bracket was 1.6 million TEUs and the ships greater than 20,000 TEUs comprised 1.3 million TEUs. By contrast, in the less-than 5,000-TEU segment, the 2025 orderbook was at 442,182 TEUs, according to Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Teodoro said the sub-5,000-TEU segment was crucial for the intra-regional and feeder networks, but more than 60% of the vessels were at least 25 years old or more, making them prime scrapping candidates. Yet the orderbook in these size categories was almost non-existent. “By 2030, the global fleet below 2,500 TEUs could contract by 40% to 80%, with the 500- to 999-TEU category almost disappearing entirely,” she said. “This matters because many port systems depend on these vessels in a way that cannot be substituted...by larger tonnage, regardless of how cheap or abundant it becomes.” Alphaliner shipping analyst Mael Pape-Léostic said in the sub-5,000-TEU bracket there are 593 vessels that are 25 years old or older out of 4,473 ships currently trading, 13% of the fleet. In the sub-2,500-TEU segment, 17% of the trading fleet is 25 years old or older. "After a first wave of orders mainly focusing on large ships, we saw carriers this year in particular ordering smaller units with a high interest for specific classes like Bangkokmax [1,700-1,900 TEUs] and Chittagongmax [2,800 TEUs],” Pape-Léostic told the Journal of Commerce. “The ships of smaller segments of the market are aging, but it seems that carriers and non-operating owners are now in the process of rejuvenating this fleet after having focused on mainliners,” he added. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Cascading container tonnage spreads structural overcapacity to secondary lanes

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">A study commissioned by Freightos finds truckload shippers fail to use 70% of the contracted capacity they negotiate.</div>

A study commissioned by Freightos finds truckload shippers fail to use 70% of the contracted capacity they negotiate.

<div class="phx-topic">Shippers rely too heavily on freight contracts in ocean and truckload procurement events while not utilizing all the space for which they contract, according to research commissioned by online freight marketplace Freightos. The study, conducted this fall by Angi Acocella, a freight lab researcher at MIT’s Center for Transportation and Logistics, found that while most shippers commit at least 90% of their forecast truckload volume to contracts, as much as 70% of that contracted capacity goes unused. The research also found that more than 70% of ocean freight is typically dedicated to contract, but didn’t have a comparable unused capacity metric. Most shippers believe they only “ghost” no more than 25% of their contracted capacity in ocean and truckload, Acocella found, adding that most shippers admit during in-person discussions that they estimate this number. She referred to this phenomenon, where capacity exists but the load doesn’t materialize, as ghost lanes. “There are real costs and performance implications for having ghost lanes,” Acocella said in the study. The research found evidence that truckload shippers are using the spot market in a more strategic way in full truckload. Pre-COVID, about 5% of truckload volume went directly to the spot market. That pertains specifically to loads that didn’t encounter what she called a “routing guide failure,” where a load is rejected by a shipper’s contract carrier and by the backup carriers in its routing guide, but rather was tendered directly to the spot market. That number rose to 10% during the pandemic and stayed at that level post-pandemic. “It looks like there may be a structural shift in how shippers are accessing the spot market,” Acocella said, noting that COVID-19 influenced an increase in spot market loads even to carriers within a shipper’s routing guide. “Despite a soft market [which would normally indicate shippers’ increasing use of contracted capacity], that number has stayed at 10%.” She said a majority of shippers want to move via contract “because it’s predictable and what they can plan for,” even if shippers ought to be using a broader mix of strategic spot capacity alongside long-term, short-term and index-linked contract space. <h3>Strategic use vs. desperation move </h3>Shippers forced from contract onto the truckload spot market are paying 9% to 35% more for freight above their forecast costs, Acocella said, alluding to the use of spot market out of desperation rather than as part of a procurement diversification strategy. The study was based on data from 108 shipper and carrier respondents in ocean trade, and 60 in truckload. “Shippers carry significant wasted costs through unused or underutilized contracts, with analysis showing better efficiency via the strategic use of spot for these lanes,” Judah Levine, Freightos’ head of research, wrote in a Dec. 4 blog about the research. Levine said the findings suggest shippers should measure the ratio and relative performance of contract versus spot freight. He also said shippers should consider index-linked contracts within their broader use of contracts, weigh the use of spot market tools, and automate time-consuming procurement tasks such as requesting tender offers, spot rates and even bookings. Contact Eric Johnson at <a href="mailto:eric.johnson@spglobal.com">eric.johnson@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Shippers rely too heavily on freight contracts in ocean and truckload procurement events while not utilizing all the space for which they contract, according to research commissioned by online freight marketplace Freightos. The study, conducted this fall by Angi Acocella, a freight lab researcher at MIT’s Center for Transportation and Logistics, found that while most shippers commit at least 90% of their forecast truckload volume to contracts, as much as 70% of that contracted capacity goes unused. The research also found that more than 70% of ocean freight is typically dedicated to contract, but didn’t have a comparable unused capacity metric. Most shippers believe they only “ghost” no more than 25% of their contracted capacity in ocean and truckload, Acocella found, adding that most shippers admit during in-person discussions that they estimate this number. She referred to this phenomenon, where capacity exists but the load doesn’t materialize, as ghost lanes. “There are real costs and performance implications for having ghost lanes,” Acocella said in the study. The research found evidence that truckload shippers are using the spot market in a more strategic way in full truckload. Pre-COVID, about 5% of truckload volume went directly to the spot market. That pertains specifically to loads that didn’t encounter what she called a “routing guide failure,” where a load is rejected by a shipper’s contract carrier and by the backup carriers in its routing guide, but rather was tendered directly to the spot market. That number rose to 10% during the pandemic and stayed at that level post-pandemic. “It looks like there may be a structural shift in how shippers are accessing the spot market,” Acocella said, noting that COVID-19 influenced an increase in spot market loads even to carriers within a shipper’s routing guide. “Despite a soft market [which would normally indicate shippers’ increasing use of contracted capacity], that number has stayed at 10%.” She said a majority of shippers want to move via contract “because it’s predictable and what they can plan for,” even if shippers ought to be using a broader mix of strategic spot capacity alongside long-term, short-term and index-linked contract space. Strategic use vs. desperation move Shippers forced from contract onto the truckload spot market are paying 9% to 35% more for freight above their forecast costs, Acocella said, alluding to the use of spot market out of desperation rather than as part of a procurement diversification strategy. The study was based on data from 108 shipper and carrier respondents in ocean trade, and 60 in truckload. “Shippers carry significant wasted costs through unused or underutilized contracts, with analysis showing better efficiency via the strategic use of spot for these lanes,” Judah Levine, Freightos’ head of research, wrote in a Dec. 4 blog about the research. Levine said the findings suggest shippers should measure the ratio and relative performance of contract versus spot freight. He also said shippers should consider index-linked contracts within their broader use of contracts, weigh the use of spot market tools, and automate time-consuming procurement tasks such as requesting tender offers, spot rates and even bookings. Contact Eric Johnson at eric.johnson@spglobal.com .

Reliance on contracts results in unused truckload, ocean capacity: study

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">S&amp;P Global’s outlook for the transportation sector sees US ports facing a volume decline in 2026 with the potential for recovery in 2027. </div>

S&P Global’s outlook for the transportation sector sees US ports facing a volume decline in 2026 with the potential for recovery in 2027.

<div class="phx-topic">US ports face another down year for volumes in 2026 due to ongoing uncertainty over the direction of US trade and tariff policy, according to an S&amp;P Global credit outlook. The forecast drop in container volumes echoes similar outlooks from major US port operators whose fortunes are not expected to turn around until 2027. S&amp;P Global Ratings said Tuesday that while US economic output and employment are expected to remain stable through next year, ports face a down year as the Trump administration’s wide-ranging tariffs against most US trade partners likely make shippers cautious and continue to reshore production. Trade with China might stabilize in 2026 due to <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/trade-deal-could-boost-short-term-china-imports-but-uncertainty-lingers-6106809">the trade deal the US struck with China through next November</a>, S&amp;P Global Ratings said. But tariffs against China and other trading partners remain at record high levels, forcing shippers to be cautious. A US Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s tariffs could reignite cargo shipments, the outlook said. Nevertheless, S&amp;P Global said US port container volumes will decline 2% in 2026. The outlook calls for a rebound in volume of 6% in 2027 on the hopes of a more stable trade policy. The outlook did not include actual volume figures. “US ports face the greatest uncertainty due to the evolving tariff landscape in 2026,” S&amp;P Global Ratings said. “The recently negotiated truce in the US-China trade conflict provides a measure of certainty until that agreement expires. Our estimate of slightly lower container volumes in 2026 is followed by a solid recovery in 2027.” The outlook follows a similar forecast from the National Retail Federation (NRF), which said Monday <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/december-us-imports-on-track-to-be-lowest-since-june-23-retailers-6130632">first-quarter 2026 port volumes could see double-digit declines from the year earlier</a>. Overall, the NRF expects 2025 volumes to come in slightly below 2024. Credit ratings agency Moody’s on Nov. 18 warned that US import volumes in 2026 will be flat to down 2% from this year. Port operators, too, are budgeting for declines or only slow growth in 2026. The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey said in November it’s budgeting for total container volumes of 8.5 million TEUs in 2026, which would be just over a 2% decline from 2024. Since 2016, NY-NJ port container volumes have grown at an annual average of 4.2%. Port Houston Authority also said last month it’s budgeting for container volumes to reach 4.4 million TEUs in 2026, which would represent growth of 4.7%, below the port’s decade-long average volume growth of 7%. S&amp;P Global is the parent company of the Journal of Commerce. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

US ports face another down year for volumes in 2026 due to ongoing uncertainty over the direction of US trade and tariff policy, according to an S&P Global credit outlook. The forecast drop in container volumes echoes similar outlooks from major US port operators whose fortunes are not expected to turn around until 2027. S&P Global Ratings said Tuesday that while US economic output and employment are expected to remain stable through next year, ports face a down year as the Trump administration’s wide-ranging tariffs against most US trade partners likely make shippers cautious and continue to reshore production. Trade with China might stabilize in 2026 due to the trade deal the US struck with China through next November , S&P Global Ratings said. But tariffs against China and other trading partners remain at record high levels, forcing shippers to be cautious. A US Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s tariffs could reignite cargo shipments, the outlook said. Nevertheless, S&P Global said US port container volumes will decline 2% in 2026. The outlook calls for a rebound in volume of 6% in 2027 on the hopes of a more stable trade policy. The outlook did not include actual volume figures. “US ports face the greatest uncertainty due to the evolving tariff landscape in 2026,” S&P Global Ratings said. “The recently negotiated truce in the US-China trade conflict provides a measure of certainty until that agreement expires. Our estimate of slightly lower container volumes in 2026 is followed by a solid recovery in 2027.” The outlook follows a similar forecast from the National Retail Federation (NRF), which said Monday first-quarter 2026 port volumes could see double-digit declines from the year earlier . Overall, the NRF expects 2025 volumes to come in slightly below 2024. Credit ratings agency Moody’s on Nov. 18 warned that US import volumes in 2026 will be flat to down 2% from this year. Port operators, too, are budgeting for declines or only slow growth in 2026. The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey said in November it’s budgeting for total container volumes of 8.5 million TEUs in 2026, which would be just over a 2% decline from 2024. Since 2016, NY-NJ port container volumes have grown at an annual average of 4.2%. Port Houston Authority also said last month it’s budgeting for container volumes to reach 4.4 million TEUs in 2026, which would represent growth of 4.7%, below the port’s decade-long average volume growth of 7%. S&P Global is the parent company of the Journal of Commerce. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

US container volumes set for weak 2026 amid ongoing trade uncertainty

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">While dry-van spot rates typically climb in December, this year’s increase is the highest for early December in more than five years, according to DAT Freight &amp; Analytics. </div>

While dry-van spot rates typically climb in December, this year’s increase is the highest for early December in more than five years, according to DAT Freight & Analytics.

<div class="phx-topic">US truckload spot rates have surged in recent days as cold weather, snowstorms and a compressed holiday shopping season tighten capacity ahead of Christmas, analysts say. Spot rates on the 50 largest US lanes rose 4% on average during the first week of December, according to DAT Freight &amp; Analytics. While dry-van spot rates typically climb in December, this year’s increase is the highest for early December in more than five years, according to DAT. On average, dry-van spot rates were flat to up about 1% during the first week of December between 2020 and 2024. Bascome Majors, a transportation industry analyst for Susquehanna Bank, classified the bump as “super-seasonal,” but noted that carriers consider it a seasonal blip and not a shift in the market. “Over the last six weeks, spot rates are now cumulatively about 8% above the long-term average sequential change,” Majors wrote an investor note Tuesday. “Tender rejection rates have risen slightly to about 7%, returning to levels last seen in July of this year but just similar to December 2019 levels.” Dean Croke, principal analyst with DAT, said the combination of frigid temperatures and widespread snowfall in the Midwest and Northeast has pushed rates higher. More storms are expected this week, with another round of arctic air poised to impact the same regions. Dry-van spot rates in Wisconsin, hit with cold temperatures and heavy snow last week, jumped 19 cents per mile. “In the Midwest region, rates were up 23% week over week, a significant departure from post-Thanksgiving rates in that Midwest area,” Croke told the Journal of Commerce. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="13499d91-a088-4824-b1c4-db0f2c552702"></dynamic-object></div>Freezing weather can damage truck components, but even when equipment remains operational, snow and ice force drivers to reduce speeds or temporarily halt movement. Slower driving lowers daily mileage and reduces the number of loads a driver can complete in a week, tightening overall capacity for shippers. There were stretches of Interstate 70 in Indiana and Interstate 80 in Pennsylvania shut down because of crashes during snowstorms last week. More ice, snow and cold temperatures are expected across the Midwest and Northeast this week. <h3>Fewer shopping days </h3>The shortened shopping season is another factor behind the rate increases, Croke said. The last two Thanksgivings have been on Nov. 27 and Nov. 28, respectively, the latest two dates possible, compressing the shopping season between Black Friday and Christmas. It leaves less time for e-commerce companies and traditional retailers to replenish inventory. By contrast, Thanksgiving fell on Nov. 23 and Nov. 24 in 2022 and 2023. Rates on one high-volume e-commerce lane, Allentown, Pennsylvania, to Boston, shot up 30 cents in the first week of December, according to DAT. Rates between Chicago and the warehousing hub of Columbus, Ohio, have climbed between 10 and 15 cents per mile in each direction during the same period. “A lot of e-commerce-to-e-commerce warehouses in that overnight 300-mile range are red hot with demand,” Croke said. “Anywhere you’ve got big distribution centers within that 300-mile radius where truckers can be out and back home within 12 hours are busy this time of year.” Rates have risen sharply in other states with large concentrations of distribution centers, climbing 21 cents per mile in Maryland and 14 cents in New Jersey, DAT said. Whether the spot surge will influence contract rates remains to be seen. Many annual agreements are signed after the rates fall again post-holidays in mid-January. Derek Leathers, CEO of Werner Enterprises, said he is seeing more shippers ask what it would take to lock in contract capacity early and avoid exposure later to a potentially tighter market. He referred to it as “derisking” — pulling freight out of the traditional bid cycle. “I would say, in general, [the renewals] are lower than mid-single-digit increases,” Leathers said during the UBS Industrials and Transportation Conference on Dec. 2. “It could be bigger than 2%, but it’s not 5%, 6%, or 7%.” Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

US truckload spot rates have surged in recent days as cold weather, snowstorms and a compressed holiday shopping season tighten capacity ahead of Christmas, analysts say. Spot rates on the 50 largest US lanes rose 4% on average during the first week of December, according to DAT Freight & Analytics. While dry-van spot rates typically climb in December, this year’s increase is the highest for early December in more than five years, according to DAT. On average, dry-van spot rates were flat to up about 1% during the first week of December between 2020 and 2024. Bascome Majors, a transportation industry analyst for Susquehanna Bank, classified the bump as “super-seasonal,” but noted that carriers consider it a seasonal blip and not a shift in the market. “Over the last six weeks, spot rates are now cumulatively about 8% above the long-term average sequential change,” Majors wrote an investor note Tuesday. “Tender rejection rates have risen slightly to about 7%, returning to levels last seen in July of this year but just similar to December 2019 levels.” Dean Croke, principal analyst with DAT, said the combination of frigid temperatures and widespread snowfall in the Midwest and Northeast has pushed rates higher. More storms are expected this week, with another round of arctic air poised to impact the same regions. Dry-van spot rates in Wisconsin, hit with cold temperatures and heavy snow last week, jumped 19 cents per mile. “In the Midwest region, rates were up 23% week over week, a significant departure from post-Thanksgiving rates in that Midwest area,” Croke told the Journal of Commerce. Freezing weather can damage truck components, but even when equipment remains operational, snow and ice force drivers to reduce speeds or temporarily halt movement. Slower driving lowers daily mileage and reduces the number of loads a driver can complete in a week, tightening overall capacity for shippers. There were stretches of Interstate 70 in Indiana and Interstate 80 in Pennsylvania shut down because of crashes during snowstorms last week. More ice, snow and cold temperatures are expected across the Midwest and Northeast this week. Fewer shopping days The shortened shopping season is another factor behind the rate increases, Croke said. The last two Thanksgivings have been on Nov. 27 and Nov. 28, respectively, the latest two dates possible, compressing the shopping season between Black Friday and Christmas. It leaves less time for e-commerce companies and traditional retailers to replenish inventory. By contrast, Thanksgiving fell on Nov. 23 and Nov. 24 in 2022 and 2023. Rates on one high-volume e-commerce lane, Allentown, Pennsylvania, to Boston, shot up 30 cents in the first week of December, according to DAT. Rates between Chicago and the warehousing hub of Columbus, Ohio, have climbed between 10 and 15 cents per mile in each direction during the same period. “A lot of e-commerce-to-e-commerce warehouses in that overnight 300-mile range are red hot with demand,” Croke said. “Anywhere you’ve got big distribution centers within that 300-mile radius where truckers can be out and back home within 12 hours are busy this time of year.” Rates have risen sharply in other states with large concentrations of distribution centers, climbing 21 cents per mile in Maryland and 14 cents in New Jersey, DAT said. Whether the spot surge will influence contract rates remains to be seen. Many annual agreements are signed after the rates fall again post-holidays in mid-January. Derek Leathers, CEO of Werner Enterprises, said he is seeing more shippers ask what it would take to lock in contract capacity early and avoid exposure later to a potentially tighter market. He referred to it as “derisking” — pulling freight out of the traditional bid cycle. “I would say, in general, [the renewals] are lower than mid-single-digit increases,” Leathers said during the UBS Industrials and Transportation Conference on Dec. 2. “It could be bigger than 2%, but it’s not 5%, 6%, or 7%.” Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

US truckload rates jump on poor weather, shorter holiday shopping season

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The move into transportation management expands Transfix’s scope from its current focus on brokerage pricing technology. </div>

The move into transportation management expands Transfix’s scope from its current focus on brokerage pricing technology.

<div class="phx-topic">Former truckload broker turned software vendor Transfix on Wednesday released a transportation management system (TMS) product designed specifically to help freight brokers wean themselves off third-party applications for processes such as scheduling and payment processing. The new product represents an expansion of Transfix’s offerings after it <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/transfix-selling-digital-brokerage-business-to-nfi-industries-5244349">sold its brokerage business to NFI in mid-2024</a> and spun out its technology to serve all brokers. In conjunction with the launch, NFI said it is using the Transfix TMS across its entire brokerage business. Transfix CEO Jonathan Salama said the development of Transfix’s TMS, which builds on its existing pricing products for brokers, was designed to help brokers simplify their tech stacks as they are bombarded by vendors with applications meant to patch over insufficient features within the TMSs they use. He referred to this as an <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ma-pace-signals-truckload-tech-industry-unsure-about-unbundling-5909043">‘unbundling’ of TMS</a> in recent years, driven in part by the rise of artificial intelligence-based and automation-based vendors aiming to improve discrete processes for a broker. “TMSs are meant to do the work themselves; they’re not meant to do the work through a third party,” Salama told the Journal of Commerce. “We’re obviously going to have an [application programming interface] that makes it easy to integrate with partners, but the idea is you’re not going to need as many partners.” Salama said Transfix essentially “road tested” the TMS when it operated as a broker and has since refined it through working with other brokers as a technology vendor. The focus is around “what you need to do to keep your cost of operation as low as possible,” he said. “Brokerage has seen the toughest market [the last few years],” Salama added. “You have to understand where your costs go, and it goes to two things: people and tech stack, and if you keep adding vendors, it will cost more. Even taking out extra costs, it’s managing fewer vendors. One versus 20 is easier to manage.” NFI CEO Sid Brown said the company had chosen to apply the Transfix TMS across its brokerage business “after evaluating several TMS platforms in the market.” <h3>Transfix seeking larger piece of broker spending </h3>Salama said brokers are better managing their cost per shipment, asserting that the cost to manage a load can rise to more than $100, a number higher than the margin in some cases. “Our [cost per shipment] at Transfix was $40, and that’s where the TMS comes in,” he said. Since spinning off its technology as a standalone business, Transfix has largely competed with a small group of vendors, including AVRL, Parade, Greenscreens.AI (<a href="https://www.joc.com/article/triumph-acquires-broker-focused-pricing-technology-provider-greenscreensai-5951484">purchased in early 2025 by Triumph</a>) and Sonar, that assist brokers with their pricing strategy. Large load board providers, namely DAT Freight &amp; Analytics and Truckstop.com, also play in that space. In going after the broker TMS segment, Transfix is angling for a larger share of broker spend, but it’s also entering a more crowded category, with long-established incumbents such as McLeod, Trimble and MercuryGate (acquired in 2024 by Korber and rebranded as Infios) competing against newer options such as Tai and Revenova. Contact Eric Johnson at <a href="mailto:eric.johnson@spglobal.com">eric.johnson@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Former truckload broker turned software vendor Transfix on Wednesday released a transportation management system (TMS) product designed specifically to help freight brokers wean themselves off third-party applications for processes such as scheduling and payment processing. The new product represents an expansion of Transfix’s offerings after it sold its brokerage business to NFI in mid-2024 and spun out its technology to serve all brokers. In conjunction with the launch, NFI said it is using the Transfix TMS across its entire brokerage business. Transfix CEO Jonathan Salama said the development of Transfix’s TMS, which builds on its existing pricing products for brokers, was designed to help brokers simplify their tech stacks as they are bombarded by vendors with applications meant to patch over insufficient features within the TMSs they use. He referred to this as an ‘unbundling’ of TMS in recent years, driven in part by the rise of artificial intelligence-based and automation-based vendors aiming to improve discrete processes for a broker. “TMSs are meant to do the work themselves; they’re not meant to do the work through a third party,” Salama told the Journal of Commerce. “We’re obviously going to have an [application programming interface] that makes it easy to integrate with partners, but the idea is you’re not going to need as many partners.” Salama said Transfix essentially “road tested” the TMS when it operated as a broker and has since refined it through working with other brokers as a technology vendor. The focus is around “what you need to do to keep your cost of operation as low as possible,” he said. “Brokerage has seen the toughest market [the last few years],” Salama added. “You have to understand where your costs go, and it goes to two things: people and tech stack, and if you keep adding vendors, it will cost more. Even taking out extra costs, it’s managing fewer vendors. One versus 20 is easier to manage.” NFI CEO Sid Brown said the company had chosen to apply the Transfix TMS across its brokerage business “after evaluating several TMS platforms in the market.” Transfix seeking larger piece of broker spending Salama said brokers are better managing their cost per shipment, asserting that the cost to manage a load can rise to more than $100, a number higher than the margin in some cases. “Our [cost per shipment] at Transfix was $40, and that’s where the TMS comes in,” he said. Since spinning off its technology as a standalone business, Transfix has largely competed with a small group of vendors, including AVRL, Parade, Greenscreens.AI ( purchased in early 2025 by Triumph ) and Sonar, that assist brokers with their pricing strategy. Large load board providers, namely DAT Freight & Analytics and Truckstop.com, also play in that space. In going after the broker TMS segment, Transfix is angling for a larger share of broker spend, but it’s also entering a more crowded category, with long-established incumbents such as McLeod, Trimble and MercuryGate (acquired in 2024 by Korber and rebranded as Infios) competing against newer options such as Tai and Revenova. Contact Eric Johnson at eric.johnson@spglobal.com .

Transfix targets ‘unbundled’ chaos of truckload brokerage with TMS product

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If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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