<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' base oil price could exceed $20 a barrel at its y</div>

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' base oil price could exceed $20 a barrel at its y

<div>The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' base oil price could exceed $20 a barrel at its year-end meeting if tensions in the Persian Gulf keep prices firm on world markets.Prices firmed again on Friday. Crude oil ended trading at $21.35 a barrel, up 12 cents from Thursday's close on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Home heating oil ended the day at 55.35 cents a gallon, up 0.38 cent, and unleaded gasoline was 55.56 cents a gallon, up 0.9 cent.Last Thursday's attack by an Iranian gunboat on a United States-owned Liberian-flag supertanker in the Persian Gulf helped boost prices to well...

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' base oil price could exceed $20 a barrel at its year-end meeting if tensions in the Persian Gulf keep prices firm on world markets. Prices firmed again on Friday. Crude oil ended trading at $21.35 a barrel, up 12 cents from Thursday's close on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Home heating oil ended the day at 55.35 cents a gallon, up 0.38 cent, and unleaded gasoline was 55.56 cents a gallon, up 0.9 cent.Last Thursday's attack by an Iranian gunboat on a United States-owned Liberian-flag supertanker in the Persian Gulf helped boost prices to well over $21 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, levels not seen in more than a year. The Iranian attack on the Kuwaiti-bound ship, was an action that took aim, indirectly, at OPEC's $18 base price. With many market sources of the opinion that crude can climb as high as $23 by year-end, OPEC is likely to be under considerable pressure from its hawkish members, notably Iran, to increase prices beyond $20 for 1988. Iran sought, but failed to secure $20 a barrel at the June meeting. But Iran's military role in the Persian Gulf is securing that objective, market sources say. "Yes, they're very shrewd," acknowledged Nauman Barakat, energy futures analyst at Smith Barney, Harris, Upham & Co. "At $21.25 (on Nymex) we're at a $20 OPEC price. That's essentially what the Iranians want, and they've gotten it, without much work at all." The price quotation on the Nymex is for West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the United States' benchmark. To maintain parity, OPEC crude is priced about $1 below that to allow for transportation. Mr. Barakat believes that if futures are well above $20 going into the Dec. 10 OPEC meeting - where 1988 price and production levels will be determined - it will be very difficult for Saudi Arabia to negotiate successfully for $20. "Everyone is so uptight over the impact of the U.S. deal with the Kuwaitis, and the reflagging (of Kuwaiti ships) is very close to begin," said Jayne Ball, energy futures specialist at Dean Witter Reynolds.

TENSIONS IN PERSIAN GULF BOOST NYMEX ENERGY PRICE

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Since the West Coast’s share is higher for China-originating freight than any other region, any move away from China by importers can be expected to negatively affect the USWC’s share of inbound cargo, writes Larry Gross. </div>

Since the West Coast’s share is higher for China-originating freight than any other region, any move away from China by importers can be expected to negatively affect the USWC’s share of inbound cargo, writes Larry Gross.

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<div class="phx-topic">The Trump administration seems to be heading towards a tariff future that will result in different tariff levels for different nations. If achieved and maintained, in the long run this will result in shifts of origin for imported products towards those countries that end up with lower tariff levels. In the near term, this trend is already underway regarding imports from China. It seems reasonable to assume that, given the escalating trade and political tensions between China and the US, that most, if not all, importers for China are scrambling for alternative sources. These changes will have differing impacts depending on which US coast is involved. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6021504_0.1.jpg"></img></div>I used S&amp;P Global PIERS data to try and gauge the impact of the China freeze-out. Of the loaded TEUs arriving in the US in 2024, over 41% originated in mainland China. Therefore, a dramatic slowdown in these volumes is very significant. Meanwhile, shipments from other origins such as other Asian nations are surging, given the 90-day reprieve that has been granted by President Donald Trump. Importers will try to crowd as much of this freight through the keyhole as they can. Roughly 32% of 2024 import TEUs came in from other Asian nations, including India. The surge in traffic from these origins will help cushion the blow from the China slowdown, but only to a limited effect. The US West Coast will feel these changes more acutely than the East or Gulf Coasts. Over 57% of the USWC import TEUs in 2024 arrived from China, while they composed “only” 25% of the East Coast’s volume, with the Gulf Coast in between at 35%. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="0464227f-7536-453b-84e2-d47a98ac6675"></dynamic-object></div>There is another way to look at the situation, which is to divvy up the US import volume originating in each global region by coast of arrival. This can help us gauge the potential impact of such shifts in origin. Once again, we’ll use PIERS data to provide the picture. However, as we look at these numbers, keep in mind that in 2024, USWC share was artificially boosted by cargo diversions away from the East Coast due to labor unrest. Therefore, some share loss will be inevitable even without changes in origin shipping points. In 2024, unsurprisingly, the USWC was the dominant recipient of China-originating cargo, accounting for 65% of the 2024 TEUs, followed by the East Coast at 27% and the Gulf Coast at 8%. It is reasonable to expect that some of the China volume will move to new originations in Southeast Asia. USWC share of Southeast Asia originations was 55% in 2024, 10 points lower than China. In other words, for every 100 TEUs of China-originating freight that migrates to, say, Vietnam, the USWC loses 10 inbound TEUs, the USGC loses six, and the USEC gains 16. The situation is even more extreme if the origin migrates to India. The USEC received 86% of the 2024 TEUs originating on the Indian subcontinent. Since the USWC share is higher for China-originating freight than any other region, even including the other nations of Northeast Asia (i.e. Japan, Taiwan and South Korea), literally any move away from China can be expected to negatively affect the USWC’s share of inbound cargo. <ol><li>What this potentially means for the USWC is that those ports are staring down what might be a triple-barreled threat: </li><li>Overall lower trade volumes due to the trade war. </li><li>Loss of share as imports that were diverted in 2024 due to both the East Coast labor uncertainty and the Red Sea/Suez Canal closure start to return to their previous East/Gulf coast routings. </li></ol>Additional loss of share due to migration of imports away from China towards other origin regions that are less favorable to the USWC. In other words, when it comes to US ports, the trade war will result in winners and losers. Or perhaps more accurately, bigger losers and smaller losers. Contact Larry Gross at <a href="mailto:lgross@intermodalindepth.com">lgross@intermodalindepth.com</a>. </div>

The Trump administration seems to be heading towards a tariff future that will result in different tariff levels for different nations. If achieved and maintained, in the long run this will result in shifts of origin for imported products towards those countries that end up with lower tariff levels. In the near term, this trend is already underway regarding imports from China. It seems reasonable to assume that, given the escalating trade and political tensions between China and the US, that most, if not all, importers for China are scrambling for alternative sources. These changes will have differing impacts depending on which US coast is involved. I used S&P Global PIERS data to try and gauge the impact of the China freeze-out. Of the loaded TEUs arriving in the US in 2024, over 41% originated in mainland China. Therefore, a dramatic slowdown in these volumes is very significant. Meanwhile, shipments from other origins such as other Asian nations are surging, given the 90-day reprieve that has been granted by President Donald Trump. Importers will try to crowd as much of this freight through the keyhole as they can. Roughly 32% of 2024 import TEUs came in from other Asian nations, including India. The surge in traffic from these origins will help cushion the blow from the China slowdown, but only to a limited effect. The US West Coast will feel these changes more acutely than the East or Gulf Coasts. Over 57% of the USWC import TEUs in 2024 arrived from China, while they composed “only” 25% of the East Coast’s volume, with the Gulf Coast in between at 35%. There is another way to look at the situation, which is to divvy up the US import volume originating in each global region by coast of arrival. This can help us gauge the potential impact of such shifts in origin. Once again, we’ll use PIERS data to provide the picture. However, as we look at these numbers, keep in mind that in 2024, USWC share was artificially boosted by cargo diversions away from the East Coast due to labor unrest. Therefore, some share loss will be inevitable even without changes in origin shipping points. In 2024, unsurprisingly, the USWC was the dominant recipient of China-originating cargo, accounting for 65% of the 2024 TEUs, followed by the East Coast at 27% and the Gulf Coast at 8%. It is reasonable to expect that some of the China volume will move to new originations in Southeast Asia. USWC share of Southeast Asia originations was 55% in 2024, 10 points lower than China. In other words, for every 100 TEUs of China-originating freight that migrates to, say, Vietnam, the USWC loses 10 inbound TEUs, the USGC loses six, and the USEC gains 16. The situation is even more extreme if the origin migrates to India. The USEC received 86% of the 2024 TEUs originating on the Indian subcontinent. Since the USWC share is higher for China-originating freight than any other region, even including the other nations of Northeast Asia (i.e. Japan, Taiwan and South Korea), literally any move away from China can be expected to negatively affect the USWC’s share of inbound cargo. What this potentially means for the USWC is that those ports are staring down what might be a triple-barreled threat: Overall lower trade volumes due to the trade war. Loss of share as imports that were diverted in 2024 due to both the East Coast labor uncertainty and the Red Sea/Suez Canal closure start to return to their previous East/Gulf coast routings. Additional loss of share due to migration of imports away from China towards other origin regions that are less favorable to the USWC. In other words, when it comes to US ports, the trade war will result in winners and losers. Or perhaps more accurately, bigger losers and smaller losers. Contact Larry Gross at lgross@intermodalindepth.com .

North American ports

Maritime

Cargo origin will determine trade war winners and losers among US coasts

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The change at the top of the freight-matching platform comes as the truckload sector enters the fourth year of a freight downturn that began in 2022. </div>

The change at the top of the freight-matching platform comes as the truckload sector enters the fourth year of a freight downturn that began in 2022.

<div class="phx-topic">Scott Moscrip, an entrepreneur who founded digital freight-matching platform Truckstop in his basement in 1995, is returning as interim CEO following the departure of three-year CEO Kendra Tucker. No reason was given for Tucker’s departure. Moscrip will lead a “strategic realignment” of Truckstop, the company said in a statement Thursday, with an emphasis on customer-focused innovation. Idaho-based Truckstop, one of the largest US spot market load-board operators and a technology provider, has begun a search for a permanent CEO. Moscrip retained an ownership stake in Truckstop when the company was acquired by ICONIQ Capital in 2019. The change at the top of the freight-matching platform comes as the truckload sector enters the fourth year of a freight downturn that began in 2022, putting enormous pressure on the small trucking firms that are Truckstop’s core customers. “We continue to be laser-focused on serving our customers through existing products and new innovations,” Truckstop told the Journal of Commerce in an email Friday. Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Scott Moscrip, an entrepreneur who founded digital freight-matching platform Truckstop in his basement in 1995, is returning as interim CEO following the departure of three-year CEO Kendra Tucker. No reason was given for Tucker’s departure. Moscrip will lead a “strategic realignment” of Truckstop, the company said in a statement Thursday, with an emphasis on customer-focused innovation. Idaho-based Truckstop, one of the largest US spot market load-board operators and a technology provider, has begun a search for a permanent CEO. Moscrip retained an ownership stake in Truckstop when the company was acquired by ICONIQ Capital in 2019. The change at the top of the freight-matching platform comes as the truckload sector enters the fourth year of a freight downturn that began in 2022, putting enormous pressure on the small trucking firms that are Truckstop’s core customers. “We continue to be laser-focused on serving our customers through existing products and new innovations,” Truckstop told the Journal of Commerce in an email Friday. Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .

Trucking News

Logistics Technology News

Truckload

Surface

Truckstop begins ‘strategic realignment,’ names founder as interim CEO

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The group that oversees maritime contracts said the complex nature of the USTR’s new port fees needs to be made clear through a standard clause in shipping contracts. </div>

The group that oversees maritime contracts said the complex nature of the USTR’s new port fees needs to be made clear through a standard clause in shipping contracts.

<div class="phx-topic">The standard-setting body for maritime contracts is looking to establish how ocean carriers will charge shippers for the pending US port fees on Chinese ships and carriers, a move that will “significantly raise” shipping costs, the group warned. BIMCO said in a statement Thursday it has started development of a standard industry clause that would “address contractual uncertainties” arising from the United States Trade Representative’s (USTR’s) tariffs against China’s maritime industry. <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/scaled-back-ustr-port-tariff-to-hit-chinese-carriers-hardest-5987549">Released in April</a>, the fees on Chinese-built ships and operators go into effect Oct. 14. With the enforcement date coming in five months, BIMCO said it’s making a standard clause for the USTR fee “a priority,” with legal and commercial experts assigned to weigh in on what a standard clause would look like. “When implemented, the measures will significantly raise the cost of seaborne trade to and from the United States,” BIMCO Chief Executive David Loosley said. “Additionally, the actions present complex contractual challenges for the shipping industry.” While the port fee will apply across all maritime trades into the US, container shipping poses more of a challenge due to having multiple port calls, the rotation of vessels into services, the mix of vessels stemming from alliance structures and the differing methodologies for assessing fees. <h3>No way to entirely avoid fees </h3>Container shipping advisory Bluspark Global said in an April report that ocean carriers will look to mitigate the fee by using non-Chinese ships in their US services or restructure alliance networks so Chinese carriers will no longer serve US ports. But those moves will not be entirely cost-free either, it added. “Carriers will strategize to minimize how often and where they incur these fees, but they will also ensure they recover the costs from customers,” Bluspark said. We may see some shifts in network design, but the fundamental impacts — higher costs that will be passed on — remain.” As laid out in April, the USTR will charge a fee based on the net tonnage of a Chinese-operated ship upon first arrival at a US port, up to five times per year, with the fee escalating over five years. Chinese-built ships, however, can face either the escalating net tonnage fee or a fee based on the number of containers carried on a voyage, whichever is higher. Bluspark laid out those different fee scenarios on Chinese ships. A 10,000-TEU ship would be about 60,000 net tons and have capacity for about 5,000 standard dry containers. Under the net tonnage fee — which starts at $18 in 2025 — the ship would face a $1.08 million fee on its first port call. But the 2025 container rate of $120 would yield a port fee of $600,000, Bluspark said. Bluspark said shippers should ask carriers to justify any surcharges relative to the actual fees they incur. “Keep a close eye on carrier announcements in late 2025 and beyond,” it said. “When a carrier implements a [USTR] surcharge, scrutinize the level and mechanism.” Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The standard-setting body for maritime contracts is looking to establish how ocean carriers will charge shippers for the pending US port fees on Chinese ships and carriers, a move that will “significantly raise” shipping costs, the group warned. BIMCO said in a statement Thursday it has started development of a standard industry clause that would “address contractual uncertainties” arising from the United States Trade Representative’s (USTR’s) tariffs against China’s maritime industry. Released in April , the fees on Chinese-built ships and operators go into effect Oct. 14. With the enforcement date coming in five months, BIMCO said it’s making a standard clause for the USTR fee “a priority,” with legal and commercial experts assigned to weigh in on what a standard clause would look like. “When implemented, the measures will significantly raise the cost of seaborne trade to and from the United States,” BIMCO Chief Executive David Loosley said. “Additionally, the actions present complex contractual challenges for the shipping industry.” While the port fee will apply across all maritime trades into the US, container shipping poses more of a challenge due to having multiple port calls, the rotation of vessels into services, the mix of vessels stemming from alliance structures and the differing methodologies for assessing fees. No way to entirely avoid fees Container shipping advisory Bluspark Global said in an April report that ocean carriers will look to mitigate the fee by using non-Chinese ships in their US services or restructure alliance networks so Chinese carriers will no longer serve US ports. But those moves will not be entirely cost-free either, it added. “Carriers will strategize to minimize how often and where they incur these fees, but they will also ensure they recover the costs from customers,” Bluspark said. We may see some shifts in network design, but the fundamental impacts — higher costs that will be passed on — remain.” As laid out in April, the USTR will charge a fee based on the net tonnage of a Chinese-operated ship upon first arrival at a US port, up to five times per year, with the fee escalating over five years. Chinese-built ships, however, can face either the escalating net tonnage fee or a fee based on the number of containers carried on a voyage, whichever is higher. Bluspark laid out those different fee scenarios on Chinese ships. A 10,000-TEU ship would be about 60,000 net tons and have capacity for about 5,000 standard dry containers. Under the net tonnage fee — which starts at $18 in 2025 — the ship would face a $1.08 million fee on its first port call. But the 2025 container rate of $120 would yield a port fee of $600,000, Bluspark said. Bluspark said shippers should ask carriers to justify any surcharges relative to the actual fees they incur. “Keep a close eye on carrier announcements in late 2025 and beyond,” it said. “When a carrier implements a [USTR] surcharge, scrutinize the level and mechanism.” Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

Container Shipping News

BIMCO looks to set contract standard for charging USTR port fees

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">But a rise in demand for general cargo will not be enough to offset the sharp decline in e-commerce shipments that followed the US clampdown in May on low-value imports from China. </div>

But a rise in demand for general cargo will not be enough to offset the sharp decline in e-commerce shipments that followed the US clampdown in May on low-value imports from China.

<div class="phx-topic">MUNICH — Trans-Pacific air cargo demand is showing signs of recovery amid restocking efforts in the US, with airlines bringing back some of the freighter capacity that had been shifted out of the trade lane to serve strengthening general cargo markets. But the volume generated by seasonal tech product launches, semiconductors, perishables and pharma — and boosted by shippers being forced into the air <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/pause-in-tariff-hikes-drives-big-gains-in-trans-pacific-spot-rates-6017111">as China-US ocean space tightens</a> — will not replace the massive demand for e-commerce that filled dozens of freighters per day, according to Airbus. “E-commerce has been driving freight demand over the past years, and the big question out there is what’s going to happen to it,” Oliver von Tronchin, head of freighter marketing at the French aircraft manufacturer, told an Air Cargo Europe panel at the Transport Logistic exhibition this week. “What we are looking at is the change to the de minimis rule and the European equivalent, and if a $2.75 item is left with $100 flat fee from the US, people will not buy that item,” he added. After eliminating the duty-free exemption for low-value shipments from China valued at under $800 on May 2, the US on May 14 reduced the de minimis tariff on the low-value imports from 120% to 54%. Items sent via post from China to the US will be charged a flat fee of $100, regardless of value. The European Union is proposing a €2 handling fee for small parcels under €150 from China that would be paid by online retailers, such as Shein and Temu, but Brussels has not set an implementation date. In 2024, e-commerce shipments accounted for about 50% of China-to-US air freight volume, according to rate benchmarking platform Xeneta. Since the duty-free status of low-value Chinese imports was revoked in May, the volume has declined. The drop in trans-Pacific air freight is a leading factor in the International Air Transport Association’s (IATA’s) forecast of little to no growth in global air cargo volume for 2025, a huge climb down from the 12% jump in year over year demand in 2024. <h3>Challenge to match supply and demand </h3>Airlines are trying to match supply with demand, but those on the trans-Pacific are not being helped by the policy changes emanating from the White House. China-US tonnage in mid-May was down 25% year over year, with freighter capacity down 40%, according to Cargo Facts Consulting. As volume began to recover over the last two weeks, it encouraged carriers to bring back freighters, but with e-commerce demand muted, most of the returning lift was serving general cargo. C.H. Robinson noted in a market update this week that airlines were being cautious in adding capacity as demand recovers, with that balancing act expected to tighten available space and push rates higher throughout June, especially for non-priority shipments. The forwarder warned that end-of-quarter demand and tariff deadlines will likely create bottlenecks for last-minute bookings on China-US routes and advised shippers to explore alternate routes through Southeast Asia and book space two to three weeks in advance. The rising demand on the trans-Pacific can be seen in data from air cargo analyst Rotate, which shows an 11% increase in air cargo capacity on the Asia-North America route last week compared with the average capacity deployed over the previous four weeks. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="d1642275-60f0-447f-84f8-8fd17fcb6d8f"></dynamic-object></div>China to US spot rates are rising in tandem with the increasing demand; as of June 1, they were up 14% from the first week of May at $4.31 per kilogram, according to Xeneta. Nadeem Sultan, senior vice president of cargo planning and freighters at Emirates SkyCargo, said general air freight volume was growing on Asia-North America but airlines remained in a holding pattern regarding the tariffs. “We are seeing that demand rise, but right now, everybody is waiting until mid-August when the 90-day pause in [China] tariffs ends to see what the permanent rule is going to be,” he said. “Depending on what the politicians say over the coming weeks, corporate companies are going to decide how high the risk is and whether they should be frontloading or not,” Sultan added. “But it is too early for them to make that decision now and I would say by the middle of July we will have more clarity.” <h3>E-commerce is ‘a way of life’ </h3>While e-commerce volume is currently under pressure, airlines and aircraft manufacturers at Air Cargo Europe were bullish on future air cargo demand. “Overall, e-commerce is still robust and will still be a sizable driver within air freight in the years ahead,” von Tronchin said. “It has become a way of life, and we’re used to that way of life, and I don’t think any of us are necessarily going to change it.” Jannie Davel, CEO of MSC Air Cargo, agreed, noting that e-commerce would remain a core component of air freight, and that the market would rebalance, although not to the high demand of the past. Davel added that shippers of general cargo were also adapting to changing trade flows as the tariffs forced Asian manufacturers to adjust production strategies. “We are seeing a lot of high-tech manufacturing shifting out of China to South Asia, so even if the tariffs are maintained, the trade will still be there,” he said. “It will maybe take some time to adjust, but then it will balance out.” The bullish view on air cargo demand was shared by Boeing and Airbus. Even with the US-China trade war roiling international markets and changing demand patterns, the plane makers have left their 20-year market forecasts unchanged. John Purdoch, director of product marketing of freighters at Boeing, said all the fundamentals in the market remained in place to support long-term growth. “Over the next 20 years, almost 3,000 new freighters will enter the market in all segments, and over 800 of those in the large, wide-body space,” Purdoch said. “We believe we are on a long-term growth path of 4% growth year over year for the next 20 years.” Von Tronchin said Airbus was “in the long-term game,” adding that the current disruptions to the market were temporary. “Our global market forecast is for 20 years, and as we saw in COVID-19 and after the financial crisis, air cargo has always come back to a trend of 3% to 4% growth per year,” he said. “Air cargo will remain a growth industry, independent of the short-term effects we are seeing.” Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

MUNICH — Trans-Pacific air cargo demand is showing signs of recovery amid restocking efforts in the US, with airlines bringing back some of the freighter capacity that had been shifted out of the trade lane to serve strengthening general cargo markets. But the volume generated by seasonal tech product launches, semiconductors, perishables and pharma — and boosted by shippers being forced into the air as China-US ocean space tightens — will not replace the massive demand for e-commerce that filled dozens of freighters per day, according to Airbus. “E-commerce has been driving freight demand over the past years, and the big question out there is what’s going to happen to it,” Oliver von Tronchin, head of freighter marketing at the French aircraft manufacturer, told an Air Cargo Europe panel at the Transport Logistic exhibition this week. “What we are looking at is the change to the de minimis rule and the European equivalent, and if a $2.75 item is left with $100 flat fee from the US, people will not buy that item,” he added. After eliminating the duty-free exemption for low-value shipments from China valued at under $800 on May 2, the US on May 14 reduced the de minimis tariff on the low-value imports from 120% to 54%. Items sent via post from China to the US will be charged a flat fee of $100, regardless of value. The European Union is proposing a €2 handling fee for small parcels under €150 from China that would be paid by online retailers, such as Shein and Temu, but Brussels has not set an implementation date. In 2024, e-commerce shipments accounted for about 50% of China-to-US air freight volume, according to rate benchmarking platform Xeneta. Since the duty-free status of low-value Chinese imports was revoked in May, the volume has declined. The drop in trans-Pacific air freight is a leading factor in the International Air Transport Association’s (IATA’s) forecast of little to no growth in global air cargo volume for 2025, a huge climb down from the 12% jump in year over year demand in 2024. Challenge to match supply and demand Airlines are trying to match supply with demand, but those on the trans-Pacific are not being helped by the policy changes emanating from the White House. China-US tonnage in mid-May was down 25% year over year, with freighter capacity down 40%, according to Cargo Facts Consulting. As volume began to recover over the last two weeks, it encouraged carriers to bring back freighters, but with e-commerce demand muted, most of the returning lift was serving general cargo. C.H. Robinson noted in a market update this week that airlines were being cautious in adding capacity as demand recovers, with that balancing act expected to tighten available space and push rates higher throughout June, especially for non-priority shipments. The forwarder warned that end-of-quarter demand and tariff deadlines will likely create bottlenecks for last-minute bookings on China-US routes and advised shippers to explore alternate routes through Southeast Asia and book space two to three weeks in advance. The rising demand on the trans-Pacific can be seen in data from air cargo analyst Rotate, which shows an 11% increase in air cargo capacity on the Asia-North America route last week compared with the average capacity deployed over the previous four weeks. China to US spot rates are rising in tandem with the increasing demand; as of June 1, they were up 14% from the first week of May at $4.31 per kilogram, according to Xeneta. Nadeem Sultan, senior vice president of cargo planning and freighters at Emirates SkyCargo, said general air freight volume was growing on Asia-North America but airlines remained in a holding pattern regarding the tariffs. “We are seeing that demand rise, but right now, everybody is waiting until mid-August when the 90-day pause in [China] tariffs ends to see what the permanent rule is going to be,” he said. “Depending on what the politicians say over the coming weeks, corporate companies are going to decide how high the risk is and whether they should be frontloading or not,” Sultan added. “But it is too early for them to make that decision now and I would say by the middle of July we will have more clarity.” E-commerce is ‘a way of life’ While e-commerce volume is currently under pressure, airlines and aircraft manufacturers at Air Cargo Europe were bullish on future air cargo demand. “Overall, e-commerce is still robust and will still be a sizable driver within air freight in the years ahead,” von Tronchin said. “It has become a way of life, and we’re used to that way of life, and I don’t think any of us are necessarily going to change it.” Jannie Davel, CEO of MSC Air Cargo, agreed, noting that e-commerce would remain a core component of air freight, and that the market would rebalance, although not to the high demand of the past. Davel added that shippers of general cargo were also adapting to changing trade flows as the tariffs forced Asian manufacturers to adjust production strategies. “We are seeing a lot of high-tech manufacturing shifting out of China to South Asia, so even if the tariffs are maintained, the trade will still be there,” he said. “It will maybe take some time to adjust, but then it will balance out.” The bullish view on air cargo demand was shared by Boeing and Airbus. Even with the US-China trade war roiling international markets and changing demand patterns, the plane makers have left their 20-year market forecasts unchanged. John Purdoch, director of product marketing of freighters at Boeing, said all the fundamentals in the market remained in place to support long-term growth. “Over the next 20 years, almost 3,000 new freighters will enter the market in all segments, and over 800 of those in the large, wide-body space,” Purdoch said. “We believe we are on a long-term growth path of 4% growth year over year for the next 20 years.” Von Tronchin said Airbus was “in the long-term game,” adding that the current disruptions to the market were temporary. “Our global market forecast is for 20 years, and as we saw in COVID-19 and after the financial crisis, air cargo has always come back to a trend of 3% to 4% growth per year,” he said. “Air cargo will remain a growth industry, independent of the short-term effects we are seeing.” Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Air Cargo

Signs of air cargo recovery on the trans-Pacific as freighter aircraft return

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Client relationships have not been harmed by tariffs because shippers and carriers recognize the need for additional and unexpected costs to be passed through the supply chain.</div>

Client relationships have not been harmed by tariffs because shippers and carriers recognize the need for additional and unexpected costs to be passed through the supply chain.

<div class="phx-topic">Trade tariffs — much maligned by shippers and carriers alike — are helping to raise awareness of the influence of external factors in pricing and operations in the project cargo industry, experts in the sector say. Alessio Bianchi, managing director for project cargo forwarder DCS Liburnus, told the Journal of Commerce that it is now easier to communicate to clients that these new costs are an industry-wide challenge, not a personal dispute. “We are telling clients ‘This is not about me, it’s not about you, it’s something that we have to cope with,’” he said. Unforeseen expenses, especially tariffs, are increasingly being passed directly to the client. Thomas Parlow, managing director for TP Shipping, said when making budgetary calls to clients, his team now stresses that any kind of new tariffs, including those proposed to be levied on vessels calling the US, will be for the client’s account. In response to the US Trade Representative’s proposed port tax on Chinese-built vessels calling at US ports — currently in its third draft — charterers are now laser-focused on the build origin of multipurpose and heavy-lift vessels. “It’s all ‘where was it built?,’” said Mathias Audrain, commercial business development director at Companie Maritime Nantaise. As an asset owner, Audrain noted that none of the company’s roll-on/roll-off or container ro/ro fleet was built in China. He added that it is important to distinguish between port fees for the vessel and for the cargo, acknowledging that these unexpected changes are creating “some surprise” for charterers. The political landscape, he noted, is “suddenly changing the rules of the game.” Speaking to the Journal of Commerce, the project cargo specialists shared concerns that there are no US-built vessels with heavy lift capacity, “except for the ones that are specifically built for the US military operations,” Parlow said. This scarcity could drive up costs for US-bound project cargo; Kyriakos Kalis, director at project cargo forwarder Cosmatos, warned that limiting tonnage would inevitably lead to higher prices for goods reaching the US. <h3>Tax questions still circulating </h3>The ripple effects of the proposed fees and tariffs on the project cargo sector extend to broader trade dynamics. Rajesh Vaidyanathan Iyer, from the projects and logistics cluster at Khimji Ramdas, an Oman conglomerate with a project forwarding arm, highlighted the unique position of Middle Eastern countries with existing free trade agreements with the US, such as Oman and Bahrain. He added that there are ongoing inquiries to the US embassies in Middle Eastern countries regarding the potential effects on tax exemption treaties that countries in the region currently have with the US. Despite the volatility, there’s a strong desire for stability. Bianchi expressed a common hope. “The general consensus is that at a certain point, everything will stabilize,” he said. “We don’t need high rates or low rates. It’s stable rates.” The current climate is also spurring strategic shifts in project cargo manufacturing. Iyer has observed “renewed interest from [India and China] to set up factories in the Middle East," due to the more favorable tariff regime for the region. An influx of investment, particularly in free zones in the UAE and Oman, is creating new project opportunities for the logistics sector, with several companies already committing to setting up factories, he said. Decarbonization efforts are a key driver of demand, particularly evident in the growing size of wind turbine components. Iyer pointed out that wind blades in the Middle East are often 95 meters plus, significantly larger than the 60- to 70-meter blades commonly used in parts of the US. Kalis highlighted the transport challenges posed by longer blades, which are “not so easy to transport in all countries.” The nature of cargo handling is also evolving. Bianchi noted that many large container ships, primarily built in China, could face significant costs if they are tariffed for every call, impacting project cargo component prices. “A lot of container ships are now carrying breakbulk pieces,” he said, noting that was due to increased terminal lifting capacities that made it possible to accommodate larger cargoes on those vessels. Audrain said that container lines are developing expertise to handle diverse project cargo, and are even dedicating space on ships for specific projects. Contact Carly Fields at <a href="mailto:carly.fields@spglobal.com">carly.fields@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Trade tariffs — much maligned by shippers and carriers alike — are helping to raise awareness of the influence of external factors in pricing and operations in the project cargo industry, experts in the sector say. Alessio Bianchi, managing director for project cargo forwarder DCS Liburnus, told the Journal of Commerce that it is now easier to communicate to clients that these new costs are an industry-wide challenge, not a personal dispute. “We are telling clients ‘This is not about me, it’s not about you, it’s something that we have to cope with,’” he said. Unforeseen expenses, especially tariffs, are increasingly being passed directly to the client. Thomas Parlow, managing director for TP Shipping, said when making budgetary calls to clients, his team now stresses that any kind of new tariffs, including those proposed to be levied on vessels calling the US, will be for the client’s account. In response to the US Trade Representative’s proposed port tax on Chinese-built vessels calling at US ports — currently in its third draft — charterers are now laser-focused on the build origin of multipurpose and heavy-lift vessels. “It’s all ‘where was it built?,’” said Mathias Audrain, commercial business development director at Companie Maritime Nantaise. As an asset owner, Audrain noted that none of the company’s roll-on/roll-off or container ro/ro fleet was built in China. He added that it is important to distinguish between port fees for the vessel and for the cargo, acknowledging that these unexpected changes are creating “some surprise” for charterers. The political landscape, he noted, is “suddenly changing the rules of the game.” Speaking to the Journal of Commerce, the project cargo specialists shared concerns that there are no US-built vessels with heavy lift capacity, “except for the ones that are specifically built for the US military operations,” Parlow said. This scarcity could drive up costs for US-bound project cargo; Kyriakos Kalis, director at project cargo forwarder Cosmatos, warned that limiting tonnage would inevitably lead to higher prices for goods reaching the US. Tax questions still circulating The ripple effects of the proposed fees and tariffs on the project cargo sector extend to broader trade dynamics. Rajesh Vaidyanathan Iyer, from the projects and logistics cluster at Khimji Ramdas, an Oman conglomerate with a project forwarding arm, highlighted the unique position of Middle Eastern countries with existing free trade agreements with the US, such as Oman and Bahrain. He added that there are ongoing inquiries to the US embassies in Middle Eastern countries regarding the potential effects on tax exemption treaties that countries in the region currently have with the US. Despite the volatility, there’s a strong desire for stability. Bianchi expressed a common hope. “The general consensus is that at a certain point, everything will stabilize,” he said. “We don’t need high rates or low rates. It’s stable rates.” The current climate is also spurring strategic shifts in project cargo manufacturing. Iyer has observed “renewed interest from [India and China] to set up factories in the Middle East," due to the more favorable tariff regime for the region. An influx of investment, particularly in free zones in the UAE and Oman, is creating new project opportunities for the logistics sector, with several companies already committing to setting up factories, he said. Decarbonization efforts are a key driver of demand, particularly evident in the growing size of wind turbine components. Iyer pointed out that wind blades in the Middle East are often 95 meters plus, significantly larger than the 60- to 70-meter blades commonly used in parts of the US. Kalis highlighted the transport challenges posed by longer blades, which are “not so easy to transport in all countries.” The nature of cargo handling is also evolving. Bianchi noted that many large container ships, primarily built in China, could face significant costs if they are tariffed for every call, impacting project cargo component prices. “A lot of container ships are now carrying breakbulk pieces,” he said, noting that was due to increased terminal lifting capacities that made it possible to accommodate larger cargoes on those vessels. Audrain said that container lines are developing expertise to handle diverse project cargo, and are even dedicating space on ships for specific projects. Contact Carly Fields at carly.fields@spglobal.com .

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The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

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Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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Filling the Supply Chain Education Gap with LTL Education Courses

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