<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>Data shows US importers are walking the walk when it comes to sourcing diversification, slowly moving trade flows away from China and toward Vietnam, India, and South Korea, writes Journal of Commerce Executive Editor Mark Szakonyi.</p></div>

Data shows US importers are walking the walk when it comes to sourcing diversification, slowly moving trade flows away from China and toward Vietnam, India, and South Korea, writes Journal of Commerce Executive Editor Mark Szakonyi.

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<div><p>Efforts by US importers to reduce their reliance on China to mitigate the risks of pandemic-driven disruption and rising geopolitical tensions are finally showing up in containerized trade flow, reaccelerating a decades-long bleed of production out of the so-called world’s factory.</p><div><img></div><p></p><p>China, including Hong Kong, still dominates the sourcing landscape, supplying 40.7 percent of US imports last year. But that market share was down from 42.4 percent in 2021 and was nearly as low as in 2006, when the share was just 0.1 percentage point higher, according to data from PIERS, a sister product of the <i>Journal of Commerce</i> within S&amp;P...

Efforts by US importers to reduce their reliance on China to mitigate the risks of pandemic-driven disruption and rising geopolitical tensions are finally showing up in containerized trade flow, reaccelerating a decades-long bleed of production out of the so-called world’s factory. China, including Hong Kong, still dominates the sourcing landscape, supplying 40.7 percent of US imports last year. But that market share was down from 42.4 percent in 2021 and was nearly as low as in 2006, when the share was just 0.1 percentage point higher, according to data from PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global.  “Our sourcing and production base remains open and is operating with greater diversification, stemming from a concerted effort to move production closer to consumption where it makes sense,” Matt Puckett, CFO of apparel conglomerate VF Corporation, told investors in early January. “We are still feeling the effects from the eight weeks of large-scale lockdowns in China during the first quarter as the impacts work through the system.”  Clothing importers such as VF Corporation, along with shippers of furniture, home goods, electronics, toys, and athletic equipment, are driving the shift out of China, according to the PIERS analysis. Chinese-made goods accounted for 35.1 percent of US imports of apparel and accessories in 2022, down from 37.1 percent in 2021 and a peak of 44.2 percent in 2018. China’s share of couches, lamps, and other furniture and home goods coming into the US shrank to 52.6 percent last year from 55 percent in 2021; in 2010, that number was 71.6 percent.  While total US containerized imports ticked up 0.3 percent last year, overall shipments from China fell 3.7 percent. That’s about 435,500 fewer TEU moving off Chinese docks to US ports.  ‘Balancing’ act  In terms of containerized ocean trade, the decline in sourcing out of China has most favored Vietnam, followed by South Korea and India. Vietnam, the second-largest source of US containerized imports, saw its share rise from 8.2 percent to 8.7 percent last year, thanks to increased sourcing of electronics, footwear, and apparel. South Korea's electronics and auto parts industries benefited from increased US sourcing, expanding the country’s share of total US imports to 4.1 percent in 2022 from 3.8 percent the previous year. The share of US imports from India inched up to 3.9 percent last year from 3.8 percent in 2021, driven by increases in apparel and iron and steel components.  Although it’s not captured in the PIERS analysis because much of the volume does not move by container ship, anecdotal evidence, coupled with strong reported trade growth, suggests Mexico has also benefited from increased sourcing of US goods and components. The total value of US imports from Mexico via truck, rail, ocean, and air jumped 19.2 percent year over year to $418.9 billion in the first 11 months of 2022, according to the latest available data from the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics.  “We’ve spoken a lot about balancing between China sourcing and the rest of the world sourcing, including in the Americas and especially, Mexico, which leads to near-shoring for the US and Canadian market and even the Latin American markets,” Julien Miniberg, CEO of Helen of Troy, said during the company’s fiscal third-quarter earnings call in early January.  Sourcing from Mexico and, to a lesser degree, other Latin American countries, has cut lead times for Helen of Troy, an importer of housewares and health and beauty products, allowing it to keep inventories lower and reducing its exposure to volatile ocean freight prices, Miniberg said.   Cross-border trucking rates rise and fall on seasonal demand, but those fluctuations pale in comparison to the rollercoaster ride container spot rates have been on for the past two-plus years. Average Asia–US West Coast rates, for example, rocketed from $1,400 per FEU prior to the COVID-19 pandemic to as high as $14,000 per FEU, and then back down again. Excluding Mexico, Honduras was the only Latin American country last year to increase its share of US sourcing, accounting for 0.8 percent of total imports, up from 0.7 percent, according to PIERS.  Who has capacity to handle new volumes?  With importers acting on their desire to shift some sourcing out of China — as opposed to just “looking at options” — the question becomes exactly where the volumes currently produced in China can go. The sheer size of China’s market share means minor shifts equate to hundreds of thousands of TEU, but Vietnam and India are hardly brimming over with the kind of high-quality manufacturing capacity China is known for, and their ports and inland infrastructure have neither the scale nor the resilience of the Chinese export shipping system.  From a pure procurement standpoint, Vietnam, India, and other alternatives to China stand to see rising labor wages, as new factory entrants try to lure workers away. They also lack China’s established industrial clusters, which offer the convenience of having components located just a truck haul away, rather than an ocean journey.  Procon Pacific is looking at sourcing more industrial packaging supplies out of Southeast Asia and possibly in Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Turkey. But Daniel Krassenstein, global supply chain director  hasn’t ruled out tapping Chinese vendors more, either.  “Some of the large Chinese vendors have reduced their capacity, partly because of COVID and partly because of demand going down,” Krassenstein told the Journal of Commerce. “But the Chinese vendors are still large players that can handle our volume, and they can scale up without difficulty, as long as (free on board] costs are in line.”   Contact Mark Szakonyi at mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com and follow him on Twitter: @markszakonyi .  JOC analyst Cathy Roberson contributed to this report. 

Container lines

Trans-Pacific

North American ports

International ports

Container Shipping News

Maritime

Sourcing shift from China pulls US import share to more than a decade low

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>The carrier is now including calls at Malta, Port Said (Egypt) and Beirut on the weekly Medex itinerary, replacing Valencia and Barcelona in Spain and For-sur-Mer in France.</p></div>

The carrier is now including calls at Malta, Port Said (Egypt) and Beirut on the weekly Medex itinerary, replacing Valencia and Barcelona in Spain and For-sur-Mer in France.

Feature image

<div class="phx-topic"><p>CMA CGM has reorganized the port rotation of its India–Middle East–West Mediterranean “Medex” service that it switched over <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/cma-cgm-unveils-plans-for-suez-return-on-india-mediterranean-service-6012039">to a Red Sea schedule in June</a>. </p><p>The carrier is now including calls at Malta, Port Said (Egypt) and Beirut on the weekly Medex itinerary, replacing Valencia and Barcelona in Spain and For-sur-Mer in France. </p><p>“As part of this enhancement, the overall rotation duration will be reduced from 70 days to 63 days...,” CMA CGM (India) said in a customer advisory. “This optimization will enable more frequent sailings and enhanced capacity through additional departures, thereby offering greater flexibility and improved connectivity.” </p><p>The carrier said it will continue to serve the three dropped ports of call via transshipment. </p><p>The full updated rotation is Abu Dhabi, Jebel Ali, Mundra, Nhava Sheva, Colombo, Jeddah, Port Said, Piraeus, Malta, Genoa, Beirut, Port Said, Jeddah and back to Abu Dhabi.   </p><p>For Indian loads, the changes are due to begin with the <i>CMA CGM Pelleas</i> that has an estimated time of arrival of Jan. 7 in Mundra. </p><p>The revised rotation allows the carrier to run the string with nine vessels, compared with the 10 ships it needed to deploy previously. Cosco Shipping has a slot charter deal with CMA CGM on the Medex, with space allotments pegged at approximately 1,000 TEUs out of India per week. </p><p>India-Mediterranean trades have been the target of a new crop of opportunistic regional carriers over the past year, especially multiple Turkish lines and some others backed by non-vessel operating common carriers (NVOCCs). The new entrants have caused serious market share setbacks for traditional mainline heavyweights, particularly CMA CGM. </p><h3>Spot rates fall on capacity boost </h3><p>With the Medex’s enhanced capacity, signs of a downward correction in rates are emerging. Sources have reported a sharp drop in spot rates for loads from Nhava Sheva to Port Said for late-January CMA CGM sailings — down to $2,350 per TEU and $2,300 per FEU, from $3,250 and $2,800, respectively, quoted for early-January sailings. </p><p>On a broader note, the Medex rotation reset comes as CMA CGM is set to resume Suez Canal transits for its India–US East Coast “Indamex” loop from next month, though it is believed that the carrier still needs to position two more vessels in India to offer a weekly rotation under the normal itinerary. </p><p><i>Contact Bency Mathew at </i><a href="mailto:bencyvmathew@gmail.com"><i>bencyvmathew@gmail.com</i></a><i>.</i> </p></div>

CMA CGM has reorganized the port rotation of its India–Middle East–West Mediterranean “Medex” service that it switched over to a Red Sea schedule in June . The carrier is now including calls at Malta, Port Said (Egypt) and Beirut on the weekly Medex itinerary, replacing Valencia and Barcelona in Spain and For-sur-Mer in France. “As part of this enhancement, the overall rotation duration will be reduced from 70 days to 63 days...,” CMA CGM (India) said in a customer advisory. “This optimization will enable more frequent sailings and enhanced capacity through additional departures, thereby offering greater flexibility and improved connectivity.” The carrier said it will continue to serve the three dropped ports of call via transshipment. The full updated rotation is Abu Dhabi, Jebel Ali, Mundra, Nhava Sheva, Colombo, Jeddah, Port Said, Piraeus, Malta, Genoa, Beirut, Port Said, Jeddah and back to Abu Dhabi. For Indian loads, the changes are due to begin with the CMA CGM Pelleas that has an estimated time of arrival of Jan. 7 in Mundra. The revised rotation allows the carrier to run the string with nine vessels, compared with the 10 ships it needed to deploy previously. Cosco Shipping has a slot charter deal with CMA CGM on the Medex, with space allotments pegged at approximately 1,000 TEUs out of India per week. India-Mediterranean trades have been the target of a new crop of opportunistic regional carriers over the past year, especially multiple Turkish lines and some others backed by non-vessel operating common carriers (NVOCCs). The new entrants have caused serious market share setbacks for traditional mainline heavyweights, particularly CMA CGM. Spot rates fall on capacity boost With the Medex’s enhanced capacity, signs of a downward correction in rates are emerging. Sources have reported a sharp drop in spot rates for loads from Nhava Sheva to Port Said for late-January CMA CGM sailings — down to $2,350 per TEU and $2,300 per FEU, from $3,250 and $2,800, respectively, quoted for early-January sailings. On a broader note, the Medex rotation reset comes as CMA CGM is set to resume Suez Canal transits for its India–US East Coast “Indamex” loop from next month, though it is believed that the carrier still needs to position two more vessels in India to offer a weekly rotation under the normal itinerary. Contact Bency Mathew at bencyvmathew@gmail.com .

Asia-Europe

CMA CGM reworks India-Med loop rotation to streamline Red Sea operations

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>Whatever capacity might exit the market in 2026, most analysts believe a strong resurgence in freight volumes is needed to enable a true rebound in truckload rates. </p></div>

Whatever capacity might exit the market in 2026, most analysts believe a strong resurgence in freight volumes is needed to enable a true rebound in truckload rates.

<div class="phx-topic"><p><i>The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook.</i></p><p><b>The big picture:</b> The depression in demand that has gripped the US truckload sector for three years will likely continue through the first half of 2026. That could mean a sharper correction in capacity followed by higher rates late in the year or in 2027, which some believe will be the real recovery year for truckload carriers. </p><div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6135199_0.1.jpg"></img></div><p><b>A look back:</b> The recovery in trucking volumes many carriers and analysts had expected — or at least hoped for — at the start of 2025 failed to materialize as US manufacturing lost its early momentum and US tariffs distorted import demand. As a result, truckload spot rates stayed in the trough they’ve inhabited since mid-2022. Pricing rose and fell seasonally throughout 2025, and each minor gain was hailed as a potential turning point, but widespread overcapacity and the lack of a demand catalyst kept a lid on spot and contract rate hikes. Large truckload carriers cut their fleets in an attempt to match low levels of demand and preserve profit margins, dragging capacity to historic lows. The <i>Journal of Commerce</i> Truckload Capacity Index (TCI), a measure of actual truck counts at large publicly-owned carriers, dropped to 72.4% in the third quarter, an all-time low in two decades of TCI data. But the “long tail” of small truckload carriers remains long. More than 38,500 operating authorities were canceled between December 2022 and September 2025, but there were almost 90,000 more carriers that month than in December 2019, according to the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA). That underscores a shift, with more drivers moving to smaller trucking firms and those smaller firms proving more resilient than in the past. </p><p><b>A look ahead:</b> The resiliency demonstrated by small carriers is a significant break from previous economic downturns and, therefore, makes projections for 2026 more difficult. Analysts and large carrier executives have been predicting small fleets would fold and exit the market in increasing numbers for three years, and while rising costs and low demand will continue to squeeze those carriers, the number of companies closing their doors has slowed to a crawl. Just 1,500 operating authorities were revoked in the first nine months of 2025, down from 13,000 in 2024 and 25,000 in 2023, according to FMCSA data. Trucking executives believe a regulatory crackdown on non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses and increased enforcement of English-language proficiency requirements will pull more drivers off the road, but whether these actions will take enough capacity out of service — and do so quickly enough — to move the needle on rates remains to be seen. Orders for new Class 8 trucks are expected to fall amid low rates, weak demand, tariffs and uncertainty over future emissions regulations, slowing the influx of additional capacity into the oversupplied truckload market. </p><div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="5ef87bc3-b502-4e31-85d7-457673195134"></dynamic-object></div><p><b>The next inflection:</b> Whatever capacity might exit the market in 2026, most analysts believe a strong resurgence in freight volumes is needed to enable a true rebound in truckload rates. US manufacturing output, as measured by the S&amp;P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), expanded sequentially for the fourth straight month in November, but growth remains constrained by uncertainty over tariffs, trade policy and consumer spending. Absent a sudden and unexpected demand spike, truckload contract rate increases will likely be limited to low single-digit percentages and spot pricing will likely remain depressed well into this year, if not 2027. </p><p><i>Contact William B. Cassidy at </i><a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com"><i>bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</i></a><i>.</i> </p></div>

The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook. The big picture: The depression in demand that has gripped the US truckload sector for three years will likely continue through the first half of 2026. That could mean a sharper correction in capacity followed by higher rates late in the year or in 2027, which some believe will be the real recovery year for truckload carriers. A look back: The recovery in trucking volumes many carriers and analysts had expected — or at least hoped for — at the start of 2025 failed to materialize as US manufacturing lost its early momentum and US tariffs distorted import demand. As a result, truckload spot rates stayed in the trough they’ve inhabited since mid-2022. Pricing rose and fell seasonally throughout 2025, and each minor gain was hailed as a potential turning point, but widespread overcapacity and the lack of a demand catalyst kept a lid on spot and contract rate hikes. Large truckload carriers cut their fleets in an attempt to match low levels of demand and preserve profit margins, dragging capacity to historic lows. The Journal of Commerce Truckload Capacity Index (TCI), a measure of actual truck counts at large publicly-owned carriers, dropped to 72.4% in the third quarter, an all-time low in two decades of TCI data. But the “long tail” of small truckload carriers remains long. More than 38,500 operating authorities were canceled between December 2022 and September 2025, but there were almost 90,000 more carriers that month than in December 2019, according to the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA). That underscores a shift, with more drivers moving to smaller trucking firms and those smaller firms proving more resilient than in the past. A look ahead: The resiliency demonstrated by small carriers is a significant break from previous economic downturns and, therefore, makes projections for 2026 more difficult. Analysts and large carrier executives have been predicting small fleets would fold and exit the market in increasing numbers for three years, and while rising costs and low demand will continue to squeeze those carriers, the number of companies closing their doors has slowed to a crawl. Just 1,500 operating authorities were revoked in the first nine months of 2025, down from 13,000 in 2024 and 25,000 in 2023, according to FMCSA data. Trucking executives believe a regulatory crackdown on non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses and increased enforcement of English-language proficiency requirements will pull more drivers off the road, but whether these actions will take enough capacity out of service — and do so quickly enough — to move the needle on rates remains to be seen. Orders for new Class 8 trucks are expected to fall amid low rates, weak demand, tariffs and uncertainty over future emissions regulations, slowing the influx of additional capacity into the oversupplied truckload market. The next inflection: Whatever capacity might exit the market in 2026, most analysts believe a strong resurgence in freight volumes is needed to enable a true rebound in truckload rates. US manufacturing output, as measured by the S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), expanded sequentially for the fourth straight month in November, but growth remains constrained by uncertainty over tariffs, trade policy and consumer spending. Absent a sudden and unexpected demand spike, truckload contract rate increases will likely be limited to low single-digit percentages and spot pricing will likely remain depressed well into this year, if not 2027. Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .

Trucking News

Truckload

Surface

Persistent supply-demand imbalance to keep US truckload rates in check

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>Hapag-Lloyd’s investment in the Aracruz terminal project in Brazil is part of a plan announced by CEO Rolf Habben Jansen last March to expand the carrier’s ports network to more than 30 terminals by 2030.</p></div>

Hapag-Lloyd’s investment in the Aracruz terminal project in Brazil is part of a plan announced by CEO Rolf Habben Jansen last March to expand the carrier’s ports network to more than 30 terminals by 2030.

<div class="phx-topic"><p>Hapag-Lloyd and Ocean Network Express (ONE) are expanding their container terminal portfolios with separate deals for facilities in Brazil and China, the carriers announced Tuesday. </p><p>In Brazil, Hanseatic Global Terminals, Hapag-Lloyd’s ports division, has signed a joint venture agreement with the Imetame Group to take a 50% stake in Imetame Logística Porto (ILP), which focuses on container terminal operations. </p><p>Under the deal, Hanseatic and Imetame will build and operate the 1.2 million-TEU capacity Hanseatic Global Terminals Aracruz container terminal at Aracruz in Brazil’s Espírito Santo state, about 310 miles north of Rio de Janeiro. </p><p>The two companies declined to disclose the cost of the project, although local sources estimated the terminal would cost $486 million to build. </p><p>The facility, with 2,461 feet of quay and water depth of 56 feet, is expected to start operations in mid-2028 and handle breakbulk in addition to containerized cargo. </p><p>“Latin America is a key strategic market for Hanseatic Global Terminals and Hapag-Lloyd,” Dheeraj Bhatia, Hanseatic Global Terminals CEO, said in a statement. “Our joint venture with the Imetame Group and the development of a new transshipment hub and gateway port on Brazil’s east coast strengthens our terminal portfolio while addressing capacity constraints in a growth region.”  </p><p>Operations at some of Brazil’s existing ports, including Santos and  Navegantes, are often disrupted due to bad weather, congestion and port construction work, according to advisories published by Hapag-Lloyd and forwarder Kuehne + Nagel. </p><p>The investment in the Aracruz terminal project is part of a Hapag-Lloyd plan announced by CEO Rolf Habben Jansen last March to expand its ports network to more than 30 terminals by 2030. </p><h3>ONE extends terminal holdings </h3><p>Meanwhile, ONE has bolstered its container terminals portfolio after signing a deal to take a minority stake in Dalian Container Terminal (DCT) in northern China, the Singapore-headquartered carrier said. </p><p>ONE did not disclose how large its interest will be, but the Dalian deal will add to its network that includes stakes in terminals in Los Angeles, Oakland, Rotterdam and Singapore.  </p><p>“This acquisition of a minority stake aligns with our strategy of ensuring access at key regional ports,” Hiroki Tsujii, global chief officer of ONE’s product and network division, said in a statement. “The ownership stake allows us to collaborate with DCT and contribute to its continued infrastructure development and green terminal initiatives.”  </p><p>DCT is one of the biggest container terminals in the region, with 14 container berths, a total quay length of 14,400 feet, and annual handling capacity of 6.6 million TEUs. </p><p><i>Contact Keith Wallis at </i><a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com"><i>keithwallis@hotmail.com</i></a>.</p></div>

Hapag-Lloyd and Ocean Network Express (ONE) are expanding their container terminal portfolios with separate deals for facilities in Brazil and China, the carriers announced Tuesday. In Brazil, Hanseatic Global Terminals, Hapag-Lloyd’s ports division, has signed a joint venture agreement with the Imetame Group to take a 50% stake in Imetame Logística Porto (ILP), which focuses on container terminal operations. Under the deal, Hanseatic and Imetame will build and operate the 1.2 million-TEU capacity Hanseatic Global Terminals Aracruz container terminal at Aracruz in Brazil’s Espírito Santo state, about 310 miles north of Rio de Janeiro. The two companies declined to disclose the cost of the project, although local sources estimated the terminal would cost $486 million to build. The facility, with 2,461 feet of quay and water depth of 56 feet, is expected to start operations in mid-2028 and handle breakbulk in addition to containerized cargo. “Latin America is a key strategic market for Hanseatic Global Terminals and Hapag-Lloyd,” Dheeraj Bhatia, Hanseatic Global Terminals CEO, said in a statement. “Our joint venture with the Imetame Group and the development of a new transshipment hub and gateway port on Brazil’s east coast strengthens our terminal portfolio while addressing capacity constraints in a growth region.” Operations at some of Brazil’s existing ports, including Santos and Navegantes, are often disrupted due to bad weather, congestion and port construction work, according to advisories published by Hapag-Lloyd and forwarder Kuehne + Nagel. The investment in the Aracruz terminal project is part of a Hapag-Lloyd plan announced by CEO Rolf Habben Jansen last March to expand its ports network to more than 30 terminals by 2030. ONE extends terminal holdings Meanwhile, ONE has bolstered its container terminals portfolio after signing a deal to take a minority stake in Dalian Container Terminal (DCT) in northern China, the Singapore-headquartered carrier said. ONE did not disclose how large its interest will be, but the Dalian deal will add to its network that includes stakes in terminals in Los Angeles, Oakland, Rotterdam and Singapore. “This acquisition of a minority stake aligns with our strategy of ensuring access at key regional ports,” Hiroki Tsujii, global chief officer of ONE’s product and network division, said in a statement. “The ownership stake allows us to collaborate with DCT and contribute to its continued infrastructure development and green terminal initiatives.” DCT is one of the biggest container terminals in the region, with 14 container berths, a total quay length of 14,400 feet, and annual handling capacity of 6.6 million TEUs. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

Port News

Port infrastructure

Marine terminals

Hapag-Lloyd, ONE expand terminal networks with deals in Brazil, China

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>As 2026 begins, US import demand remains uncertain, but the record amounts of capacity container lines plan to deploy in January and February could put further pressure on already weak rates.</p></div>

As 2026 begins, US import demand remains uncertain, but the record amounts of capacity container lines plan to deploy in January and February could put further pressure on already weak rates.

<div class="phx-topic"><p><i>The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook.</i> </p><p><b>The big picture:</b> An injection of vessels pushed available capacity on the trans-Atlantic beyond market demand in 2025 despite relatively steady volumes. That leaves carriers with little leverage to raise rates from the sustained 16-month low reached in the fourth quarter. </p><div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6135199_0.1.jpg"></img></div><p><b>A look back:</b> US importers frontloading cargo ahead of threatened 30% tariffs on EU goods caused a spring volume surge on the westbound trans-Atlantic. US imports from North Europe peaked in March at 219,560 TEUs, up 14.3% from March 2024 and the third-highest total for any month in nearly nine years of data from PIERS, a sister product of the <i>Journal of Commerce</i> within S&amp;P Global. However, that momentum waned following a late-July trade deal that capped US tariffs on most EU imports at 15%, dragging year-over-year volume growth through November down to just 2.5%. At the same time, carriers added capacity to the trade via new and larger vessels. Mediterranean Shipping Co., for example, added a trans-Atlantic leg to its Asia-Mediterranean Dragon service, which operates with vessels averaging approximately 13,000 TEUs. For context, the largest vessel deployed on any other service between the Mediterranean and East Coast of North America was 9,600 TEUs. That helped boost the average size of container ships deployed on trans-Atlantic routes to nearly 6,200 TEUs in the third quarter, compared with 5,500 TEUs at the start of the year, according to data from Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis. </p><p><b>A look ahead:</b> As 2026 begins, US import demand remains uncertain, but the record amounts of capacity container lines plan to deploy in January and February could put further pressure on already weak rates. After briefly rising to $2,000 per FEU in March, average spot pricing from North Europe to the US East Coast has been stuck at $1,400 per FEU since early November, according to Platts, also part of S&amp;P Global. Even with a significant number of blank sailings, carriers plan to deploy more than 435,000 TEUs of capacity between North Europe and the US East and Gulf coasts in January and 390,000 TEUs in February, both of which would be all-time highs for the trade, according to eeSea. Further complicating demand projections are growing tensions over the implementation of the US-EU trade agreement. EU member states have been slow to approve the agreement — which would eliminate EU tariffs on most US products and reduce US tariffs on EU goods to 15% — on the grounds that it unfairly favors the US. </p><div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="ba342d44-7d63-4c55-a3ba-b135fbe604e7"></dynamic-object></div><p><b>The next inflection:</b> The trans-Atlantic is indirectly exposed to a resumption of regular Suez Canal transits. If congestion spreads across European ports, as predicted, when Asia-Europe vessels return to the Red Sea, it will be felt acutely on the shorter routes between Europe and the US East Coast. US importers would be wise to increase inventory levels of critical stock before carriers flip the Suez switch to mitigate any resulting disruption. </p><p><i>Contact Greg Knowler at </i><a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com"><i>greg.knowler@spglobal.com</i></a><i>.</i> </p></div>

The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook. The big picture: An injection of vessels pushed available capacity on the trans-Atlantic beyond market demand in 2025 despite relatively steady volumes. That leaves carriers with little leverage to raise rates from the sustained 16-month low reached in the fourth quarter. A look back: US importers frontloading cargo ahead of threatened 30% tariffs on EU goods caused a spring volume surge on the westbound trans-Atlantic. US imports from North Europe peaked in March at 219,560 TEUs, up 14.3% from March 2024 and the third-highest total for any month in nearly nine years of data from PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. However, that momentum waned following a late-July trade deal that capped US tariffs on most EU imports at 15%, dragging year-over-year volume growth through November down to just 2.5%. At the same time, carriers added capacity to the trade via new and larger vessels. Mediterranean Shipping Co., for example, added a trans-Atlantic leg to its Asia-Mediterranean Dragon service, which operates with vessels averaging approximately 13,000 TEUs. For context, the largest vessel deployed on any other service between the Mediterranean and East Coast of North America was 9,600 TEUs. That helped boost the average size of container ships deployed on trans-Atlantic routes to nearly 6,200 TEUs in the third quarter, compared with 5,500 TEUs at the start of the year, according to data from Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis. A look ahead: As 2026 begins, US import demand remains uncertain, but the record amounts of capacity container lines plan to deploy in January and February could put further pressure on already weak rates. After briefly rising to $2,000 per FEU in March, average spot pricing from North Europe to the US East Coast has been stuck at $1,400 per FEU since early November, according to Platts, also part of S&P Global. Even with a significant number of blank sailings, carriers plan to deploy more than 435,000 TEUs of capacity between North Europe and the US East and Gulf coasts in January and 390,000 TEUs in February, both of which would be all-time highs for the trade, according to eeSea. Further complicating demand projections are growing tensions over the implementation of the US-EU trade agreement. EU member states have been slow to approve the agreement — which would eliminate EU tariffs on most US products and reduce US tariffs on EU goods to 15% — on the grounds that it unfairly favors the US. The next inflection: The trans-Atlantic is indirectly exposed to a resumption of regular Suez Canal transits. If congestion spreads across European ports, as predicted, when Asia-Europe vessels return to the Red Sea, it will be felt acutely on the shorter routes between Europe and the US East Coast. US importers would be wise to increase inventory levels of critical stock before carriers flip the Suez switch to mitigate any resulting disruption. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Trans-Atlantic

Trans-Atlantic capacity injection overtakes market demand

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>The investment plan was developed amid growing alarm that the country is losing out in the trade stakes due to a lack of investment by South Korean companies in overseas logistics facilities.</p></div>

The investment plan was developed amid growing alarm that the country is losing out in the trade stakes due to a lack of investment by South Korean companies in overseas logistics facilities.

<div class="phx-topic"><p>South Korea will invest $3 billion to expand the country’s global terminals and logistics network to help strengthen trade efforts in an increasingly challenging business environment. </p><p>A three-point plan unveiled by the country’s Ocean and Fisheries Ministry Monday involves increasing the number of publicly-supported logistics facilities in other countries from nine to 40, securing investment in 10 overseas port terminals, and helping to develop three major logistics companies by 2030. </p><p>Priority will be given to investing in storage and processing facilities, including warehouses and container yards in 11 existing target markets that include the US, Canada, Mexico, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Germany and Poland. The 11 were chosen based on the volume of import and export trade with South Korea over the past 10 years. </p><p>“Securing overseas logistics bases is a key task for stabilizing the supply chain in an uncertain logistics environment,” Vice Minister of Oceans and Fisheries Kim Seong-beom said in a statement announcing the initiative. “...We will strengthen our logistics competitiveness and firmly support the import and export economy.”  </p><p>Most of the investment will be overseen by the government-backed Korea Ocean Business Corporation (KOBC). </p><p>The plan calls for the creation of a foreign terminal investment group involving KOBC, shipping companies, logistics operators and port authorities such as Busan that will assess potential terminal targets and develop expansion strategies. Also part of the proposal is the creation of a container terminal investment fund that will be given $670 million to secure stakes in foreign terminals “and use this as a springboard to secure terminal operation rights in the future,” the ministry said. </p><p>Cash available through KOBC’s Global Logistics Supply Chain Investment Fund will double to $1.3 billion to help small and medium-sized logistics companies expand overseas. </p><h3>Shift in global trade environment </h3><p>The investment plan was developed amid growing alarm that South Korea is losing out in the trade stakes due to the lack of investment by South Korean companies in overseas logistics facilities. </p><p>“Due to changes in the global trade environment represented by tariff hikes, the protracted Russia-Ukraine war, the Red Sea conflict, and the intensification of the climate crisis, supply chain instability has been increasing in the global logistics market in recent years,” the ministry said. “As a result, logistics companies and shipping companies in various countries are strengthening their market dominance by securing logistics infrastructure and acquiring container terminals.” </p><p>Only 9% of the overseas logistics centers operated by 15 of South Korea’s top companies are owned facilities, while the rest are leased, the ministry said. </p><p>“There is a high risk of disruption in the provision of logistics services due to the rapid rise in logistics costs and difficulty in securing facilities at the right time in the event of a supply chain crisis,” it said. </p><p>The ministry pointed out that only seven South Korean companies have stakes in overseas container terminals. They include HMM, which has interests in six terminals including Long Beach, Tacoma, Singapore and Algeciras; CJ Logistics, with facilities in Shenyang in northern China, Klang in Malaysia, and Thailand; and Lotte Global Logistics, which has warehouses in Vietnam, the Philippines and Europe. </p><p><i>Contact Keith Wallis at </i><a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com"><i>keithwallis@hotmail.com</i></a><i>.</i> </p></div>

South Korea will invest $3 billion to expand the country’s global terminals and logistics network to help strengthen trade efforts in an increasingly challenging business environment. A three-point plan unveiled by the country’s Ocean and Fisheries Ministry Monday involves increasing the number of publicly-supported logistics facilities in other countries from nine to 40, securing investment in 10 overseas port terminals, and helping to develop three major logistics companies by 2030. Priority will be given to investing in storage and processing facilities, including warehouses and container yards in 11 existing target markets that include the US, Canada, Mexico, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Germany and Poland. The 11 were chosen based on the volume of import and export trade with South Korea over the past 10 years. “Securing overseas logistics bases is a key task for stabilizing the supply chain in an uncertain logistics environment,” Vice Minister of Oceans and Fisheries Kim Seong-beom said in a statement announcing the initiative. “...We will strengthen our logistics competitiveness and firmly support the import and export economy.” Most of the investment will be overseen by the government-backed Korea Ocean Business Corporation (KOBC). The plan calls for the creation of a foreign terminal investment group involving KOBC, shipping companies, logistics operators and port authorities such as Busan that will assess potential terminal targets and develop expansion strategies. Also part of the proposal is the creation of a container terminal investment fund that will be given $670 million to secure stakes in foreign terminals “and use this as a springboard to secure terminal operation rights in the future,” the ministry said. Cash available through KOBC’s Global Logistics Supply Chain Investment Fund will double to $1.3 billion to help small and medium-sized logistics companies expand overseas. Shift in global trade environment The investment plan was developed amid growing alarm that South Korea is losing out in the trade stakes due to the lack of investment by South Korean companies in overseas logistics facilities. “Due to changes in the global trade environment represented by tariff hikes, the protracted Russia-Ukraine war, the Red Sea conflict, and the intensification of the climate crisis, supply chain instability has been increasing in the global logistics market in recent years,” the ministry said. “As a result, logistics companies and shipping companies in various countries are strengthening their market dominance by securing logistics infrastructure and acquiring container terminals.” Only 9% of the overseas logistics centers operated by 15 of South Korea’s top companies are owned facilities, while the rest are leased, the ministry said. “There is a high risk of disruption in the provision of logistics services due to the rapid rise in logistics costs and difficulty in securing facilities at the right time in the event of a supply chain crisis,” it said. The ministry pointed out that only seven South Korean companies have stakes in overseas container terminals. They include HMM, which has interests in six terminals including Long Beach, Tacoma, Singapore and Algeciras; CJ Logistics, with facilities in Shenyang in northern China, Klang in Malaysia, and Thailand; and Lotte Global Logistics, which has warehouses in Vietnam, the Philippines and Europe. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

South Korea to invest $3 billion expanding foreign logistics, terminal network

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