<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The work stoppage along Canada’s West Coast has also shut down rail operations, with CN suspending westbound rail service to British Columbia ports and CPKC halting acceptance of export and empty containers for the province. </div>

The work stoppage along Canada’s West Coast has also shut down rail operations, with CN suspending westbound rail service to British Columbia ports and CPKC halting acceptance of export and empty containers for the province.

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<div>A growing number of container ships on Tuesday were waiting out the labor lockout at British Columbia ports in hopes of a speedy resolution. Meanwhile, on the other side of the country, the strike at marine terminals in Montreal is halting all rail service at that port. Maersk said in an advisory that two ships in its TP1 service, the 6,350-TEU Marcos V and the 8,714-TEU San Felipe, are currently at anchorage at the ports of Vancouver and Prince Rupert, respectively. A third ship, the 5,085-TEU Seattle Express, is still expected to call Vancouver’s Fraser Surrey terminal this week, with...

A growing number of container ships on Tuesday were waiting out the labor lockout at British Columbia ports in hopes of a speedy resolution. Meanwhile, on the other side of the country, the strike at marine terminals in Montreal is halting all rail service at that port. Maersk said in an advisory that two ships in its TP1 service, the 6,350-TEU Marcos V and the 8,714-TEU San Felipe, are currently at anchorage at the ports of Vancouver and Prince Rupert, respectively. A third ship, the 5,085-TEU Seattle Express, is still expected to call Vancouver’s Fraser Surrey terminal this week, with any change in its rotation contingent upon the duration of the port’s closure. Container terminals at Vancouver and Prince Rupert were effectively shuttered after the British Columbia Maritime Employers Association locked out members of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 514 following a strike vote by its members. The strike by longshore foremen began Monday morning. The two sides remain at odds over terms of a new contract as well as the implementation of new technology at DP World’s Vancouver terminal . The prior contract expired in March 2023. Management is still onsite at Vancouver terminals monitoring refrigerated containers, according to a person familiar with the issue, but truck gates and berth operations are halted. Vancouver is Canada’s largest container terminal. The 12,726-TEU YM Target remains at berth at Vancouver’s Deltaport, with initial plans to wait out the work stoppage, the source added. Three other container ships are at anchorage outside of Vancouver, while the 4,250-TEU Cosco Auckland remains at berth at Prince Rupert. The backlog of ships, though, may grow. The Vancouver Fraser Port Authority said Tuesday that seven container ships have requested an anchorage at the port. While trying to maintain vessel schedules, Maersk is offering shippers relief from any charges associated with the work stoppage. It has suspended demurrage and export container detention across British Columbia ports, but Maersk said it is “still maintaining certain conditions for import detention.” The carrier said it will also open off-dock empty return locations for containers. The work stoppage along Canada’s West Coast has also shut down rail operations. Canadian National Railway (CN) suspended westbound rail service to British Columbia ports, with Canadian Pacific-Kansas City (CPKC) also stopping acceptance of export and empty containers for British Columbia. CN suspends Montreal service The shutdown of Canada’s West Coast ports comes as longshore workers affiliated with the Canadian Union of Public Employees Local 375 stage an indefinite strike against two marine terminals operated by Termont in Montreal . The Termont strike is also forcing CN to suspend all rail service in and out of Montreal, including at the Racine and Cast terminals operated by Montreal Gateway Terminals, which are not affected by the strike, Hapag-Lloyd said in an advisory Tuesday. The suspension also includes interchange services with CSX Transportation and Norfolk Southern in the Ohio Valley. “This action is due to operational constraints and uncertainty arising from the ongoing renewal of the Montreal longshoremen collective agreement,” Hapag-Lloyd said. “As a result, CN will suspend and remove all capacity at their inland terminals for exports destined for Cast and Racine until further notice.” Separately, Montreal’s Maritime Employers Association (MEA) started suspending salary guarantees for striking longshore workers Tuesday, saying it was necessary to “reduce the cumulative financial impact of repeated strikes and lower volumes at the Port of Montreal.” Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Container Shipping News

Marine terminals

Longshore labor

North American ports

Ships waiting out BC port closures in hopes of quick deal with longshore union

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Fears that methanol will not be available in the coming years at the scale required to power a growing and thirsty ocean fleet is pushing the orderbook deeper down the LNG pathway.</div>

Fears that methanol will not be available in the coming years at the scale required to power a growing and thirsty ocean fleet is pushing the orderbook deeper down the LNG pathway.

<div class="phx-topic">The availability of green fuels to power vessels on the fast-growing dual-fuel orderbook as they come online over the next few years is “the single biggest worry we have,” according to Hapag-Lloyd's Rolf Habben Jansen. “In five or 10 years from today, there will be significantly more ships that can sail on green fuel than there is green fuel available,” the Hamburg-based carrier CEO told customers during an online briefing Monday. “That keeps us awake and is why we are prepared to sign offtake agreements with suppliers for longer periods,” Habben Jansen added. “We are talking to various producers about the availability of green fuel, but we see the availability of green fuel as a big problem.” Hapag-Lloyd and Seaspan are converting five 10,100-TEU charter ships to a methanol dual-fuel propulsion system that will be ready in 2026. Maersk <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/maersks-methanol-ship-conversion-tests-retrofitting-business-case-5822762">retrofitted its first vessel to methanol</a> and returned it to service in November to join the nine 16,592-TEU methanol-capable ships that have so far been delivered from an 18-ship order. Other carriers that will also be hunting for methanol to power the vessels coming off their orderbooks are Ocean Network Express, Evergreen, HMM and Cosco. In mid-November, Cosco Shipping Holdings <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/cosco-shareholders-back-22-billion-order-for-12-methanol-fueled-ships-5818358">made a $2.2 billion deal</a> for 12 dual-fuel 14,000-TEU vessels for delivery in 2027. <h3>Urgent moves for supply deals </h3>Carriers have been urgently trying to secure supply deals for the future as their dual-fuel ships are delivered. While the vessels will be able to sail on conventional bunker fuels, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/tightening-europe-decarbonization-measures-will-raise-shipper-costs-carriers-5833489">tightening emissions controls by regulators</a> and <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/midterm-emissions-plan-to-take-center-stage-at-upcoming-imo-meeting-5731399">a global pricing measure</a> that the International Maritime Organization (IMO) wants in place by next October has lent an urgency to the sourcing of green fuel. Hapag-Lloyd in late November <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/hapag-lloyd-joins-maersk-in-chinese-methanol-supply-deal-5866031">signed an agreement with Chinese energy producer Goldwin</a>d for the annual supply of 250,000 tons of green methanol per year from 2026, joining <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/hapag-lloyd-says-gemini-alliance-cargo-bookings-to-open-dec-3-5846853">Gemini Cooperation</a> partner Maersk <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/maersk-inks-new-methanol-sourcing-deal-with-chinese-supplier-5234419">that already has a 500,000 tons per year green methanol deal</a> with Goldwind. But Steve Esau, COO of LNG maritime lobby group SEA-LNG, said many of the MOUs that ocean carriers have signed with methanol fuel producers have not yet matured into projects, raising concerns among ship owners. “The big energy suppliers are not really that interested in producing large volumes of green methanol for the shipping industry for various commercial reasons, and there is a realization that the fuel was not going to become available at the scale needed by the shipping industry,” Esau told the Journal of Commerce in a recent interview. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="1a054077-7728-4ffd-abb8-b7aff17c3235"></dynamic-object></div>Esau said there was an emerging recognition within the shipping supply chain that methanol was a tiny market. “If you converted methanol into LNG equivalent, you're looking at a methanol fossil fuel market of 50 million tons, most of it produced and consumed locally,” Esau said. “Compare that to LNG, which is closer to 500 million tons and has infrastructure for another billion tons of regasification capacity. You just don't have that infrastructure in place for methanol.” The growing methanol supply concerns have seen carriers hedging their bets and directing significant investment towards building vessels capable of sailing on liquefied natural gas (LNG). Alphaliner reports that six of the top 10 ocean carriers now have LNG-capable ships on their orderbooks. That includes Maersk that last week confirmed an order for 20 dual-fuel LNG-capable ships totaling 300,000 TEUs, and Hapag-Lloyd, which last month <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/hapag-lloyd-makes-4-billion-move-down-lng-path-with-24-ship-dual-fuel-order-5787368">announced its preference for LNG-powered vessels</a> with an order for 24 ships. Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC) has also decided to move in the direction of LNG, CEO Soren Toft said in October. About 70% of the total 1.7 million TEUs of ship orders made so far this year were for ships capable of sailing on methanol or LNG, with LNG comprising 63% of the new orders, according to data from Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. In 2023, the methanol-LNG split was 66% in favor of methanol ships, Sea-web data shows. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The availability of green fuels to power vessels on the fast-growing dual-fuel orderbook as they come online over the next few years is “the single biggest worry we have,” according to Hapag-Lloyd's Rolf Habben Jansen. “In five or 10 years from today, there will be significantly more ships that can sail on green fuel than there is green fuel available,” the Hamburg-based carrier CEO told customers during an online briefing Monday. “That keeps us awake and is why we are prepared to sign offtake agreements with suppliers for longer periods,” Habben Jansen added. “We are talking to various producers about the availability of green fuel, but we see the availability of green fuel as a big problem.” Hapag-Lloyd and Seaspan are converting five 10,100-TEU charter ships to a methanol dual-fuel propulsion system that will be ready in 2026. Maersk retrofitted its first vessel to methanol and returned it to service in November to join the nine 16,592-TEU methanol-capable ships that have so far been delivered from an 18-ship order. Other carriers that will also be hunting for methanol to power the vessels coming off their orderbooks are Ocean Network Express, Evergreen, HMM and Cosco. In mid-November, Cosco Shipping Holdings made a $2.2 billion deal for 12 dual-fuel 14,000-TEU vessels for delivery in 2027. Urgent moves for supply deals Carriers have been urgently trying to secure supply deals for the future as their dual-fuel ships are delivered. While the vessels will be able to sail on conventional bunker fuels, tightening emissions controls by regulators and a global pricing measure that the International Maritime Organization (IMO) wants in place by next October has lent an urgency to the sourcing of green fuel. Hapag-Lloyd in late November signed an agreement with Chinese energy producer Goldwin d for the annual supply of 250,000 tons of green methanol per year from 2026, joining Gemini Cooperation partner Maersk that already has a 500,000 tons per year green methanol deal with Goldwind. But Steve Esau, COO of LNG maritime lobby group SEA-LNG, said many of the MOUs that ocean carriers have signed with methanol fuel producers have not yet matured into projects, raising concerns among ship owners. “The big energy suppliers are not really that interested in producing large volumes of green methanol for the shipping industry for various commercial reasons, and there is a realization that the fuel was not going to become available at the scale needed by the shipping industry,” Esau told the Journal of Commerce in a recent interview. Esau said there was an emerging recognition within the shipping supply chain that methanol was a tiny market. “If you converted methanol into LNG equivalent, you're looking at a methanol fossil fuel market of 50 million tons, most of it produced and consumed locally,” Esau said. “Compare that to LNG, which is closer to 500 million tons and has infrastructure for another billion tons of regasification capacity. You just don't have that infrastructure in place for methanol.” The growing methanol supply concerns have seen carriers hedging their bets and directing significant investment towards building vessels capable of sailing on liquefied natural gas (LNG). Alphaliner reports that six of the top 10 ocean carriers now have LNG-capable ships on their orderbooks. That includes Maersk that last week confirmed an order for 20 dual-fuel LNG-capable ships totaling 300,000 TEUs, and Hapag-Lloyd, which last month announced its preference for LNG-powered vessels with an order for 24 ships. Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC) has also decided to move in the direction of LNG, CEO Soren Toft said in October. About 70% of the total 1.7 million TEUs of ship orders made so far this year were for ships capable of sailing on methanol or LNG, with LNG comprising 63% of the new orders, according to data from Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. In 2023, the methanol-LNG split was 66% in favor of methanol ships, Sea-web data shows. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

Container lines

Maritime

Potential shortage of green fuels ‘keeps us awake’: Hapag-Lloyd CEO

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Limited air freight options for specialized cargoes are not expected to ease in the short term. </div>

Limited air freight options for specialized cargoes are not expected to ease in the short term.

<div class="phx-topic">A combination of strong heavy-lift and outsized cargo demand, tight air cargo capacity and surging air freight rates has led to a modal shift in shipments from air to multipurpose vessels (MPVs), carriers and brokers say.Over the past two years, charter rates for aircraft specializing in heavy-lift and outsized cargo have surged more than 50% on strong demand and capacity shortages, Andriy Blagovisniy, global director of air chartering at LP Aero, part of Logistics Plus, told the Journal of Commerce.This has pushed charter rates for the heavy-lift air industry workhorse Antonov An-124 to over $2 million for a flight from Asia to the US. Heavy-lift and project cargo customers charter the entire airplane on an aircraft, crew, maintenance and insurance (ACMI) basis, unlike general air freight which is charged per kilogram. Actual rates are dependent on the type of cargo, flight duration and route.“Charter rates are high, but at the same time it cannot be said that they are not affordable,” Blagovisniy said. “When customers make the decision to use air transport their choice is always based on whether to gain time or save money given the significant financial losses that can arise from delays in delivery of project cargo.”However, he said that strong demand has led to longer lead times for specialized air freight. “To transport project cargo by air it is now necessary to book an aircraft approximately six to seven weeks in advance,” Blagovisniy said. That’s at least double the time needed two years ago. Time also needs to be factored in for the bespoke preparations necessary for the carriage of project cargoes, including the design and manufacture of frames to hold the cargo and the provision of lashing and lifting points to ensure safe weight distribution in the aircraft.The supply squeeze has meant that the waiting time for aircraft availability is now comparable with the time taken to deliver cargo by sea – though sea transportation is considerably cheaper, Blagovisniy said.“Consequently, customers who previously traditionally considered air delivery as the fastest and most convenient option are now, from the very beginning, planning and building their logistics needs on the delivery of project cargo by ship,” Blagovisniy added.<h3>MPV carrier welcomes modal shift</h3>Blagovisniy’s comments were echoed by Marc Willim, general manager and head of chartering at MPV operator AAL Shipping. “We have heard about such cases of heavy-lift air freight shipments moving to ocean freight from our forwarder clients,” Willim told the Journal of Commerce. “It is, however, difficult for us to quantify how many times or which cargoes specifically have shifted.“Due to the typically urgent nature of these shipments, we have a policy of earliest possibly engagement and forward planning with our project customers…and we can plan and lock in sailings early to satisfy individual project or customer needs,” he added.There are few aircraft capable of transporting heavy-lift or outsized project cargo loads. These include the AN-124, the world’s largest commercial cargo aircraft operated by Ukraine’s Antonov Airlines, Boeing 747-400s and Ilyushin IL-76s, all with a 50-ton payload. The Airbus Beluga ST, based on an Airbus A300, can carry up to 40 mt.Due to the Russia-Ukraine war, only six AN-124 Ukraine-registered aircraft remain active in the global heavy-lift transportation market, but “two of these are dedicated to transporting arms and supplies to Ukraine,” a broker said.Ongoing aircraft maintenance means that only two to four AN-124s currently operate on the global commercial market, said the broker, who did not want to be identified.Volga-Dnepr Airlines, which claims to have a fleet of 10 AN-124s, only operates two aircraft because the rest are grounded due to Western sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. The two aircraft only operate between Russia and “friendly” countries including China, India and Kazakhstan. There are just two Ilyushin IL-76s available on the market today.“Boeing 747s are more widely available, operated by cargo airlines including Cargolux and Kalitta Air, and have the flexibility to load project cargo through their nose door. But technically, they are more limited due to cargo door dimensions and maximum permissible floor loads,” the broker added.<h3>Shippers hold for Beluga capacity</h3>Tight specialized air freight capacity is expected to continue into next year. Benoît Lemonnier, Airbus Beluga Transport’s managing director, anticipates the situation will improve next year when the airline, specially created by European aircraft maker Airbus, starts to more actively promote its five Beluga Super Transporter (ST) aircraft.The priorities for 2025 are Airbus-related cargoes including satellites and helicopters “and the upcoming transport of new payloads for external strategic customers,” Lemonnier told the Journal of Commerce. “Aeronautics, defense and space are the most active with Beluga at the moment.”Airbus Beluga Transport, which received its air operator’s certificate in November 2023, has focused on developing its operations, flying around 700 hours in the first nine months of this year mainly on European and a few long-range flights, he said.The Beluga ST has a 40 mt payload and the world’s largest interior cross-section of any transport aircraft, accommodating outsized cargo of up to 23 feet wide and 22 feet high.Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>.</div>

A combination of strong heavy-lift and outsized cargo demand, tight air cargo capacity and surging air freight rates has led to a modal shift in shipments from air to multipurpose vessels (MPVs), carriers and brokers say. Over the past two years, charter rates for aircraft specializing in heavy-lift and outsized cargo have surged more than 50% on strong demand and capacity shortages, Andriy Blagovisniy, global director of air chartering at LP Aero, part of Logistics Plus, told the Journal of Commerce. This has pushed charter rates for the heavy-lift air industry workhorse Antonov An-124 to over $2 million for a flight from Asia to the US. Heavy-lift and project cargo customers charter the entire airplane on an aircraft, crew, maintenance and insurance (ACMI) basis, unlike general air freight which is charged per kilogram. Actual rates are dependent on the type of cargo, flight duration and route. “Charter rates are high, but at the same time it cannot be said that they are not affordable,” Blagovisniy said. “When customers make the decision to use air transport their choice is always based on whether to gain time or save money given the significant financial losses that can arise from delays in delivery of project cargo.” However, he said that strong demand has led to longer lead times for specialized air freight. “To transport project cargo by air it is now necessary to book an aircraft approximately six to seven weeks in advance,” Blagovisniy said. That’s at least double the time needed two years ago. Time also needs to be factored in for the bespoke preparations necessary for the carriage of project cargoes, including the design and manufacture of frames to hold the cargo and the provision of lashing and lifting points to ensure safe weight distribution in the aircraft. The supply squeeze has meant that the waiting time for aircraft availability is now comparable with the time taken to deliver cargo by sea – though sea transportation is considerably cheaper, Blagovisniy said. “Consequently, customers who previously traditionally considered air delivery as the fastest and most convenient option are now, from the very beginning, planning and building their logistics needs on the delivery of project cargo by ship,” Blagovisniy added. MPV carrier welcomes modal shift Blagovisniy’s comments were echoed by Marc Willim, general manager and head of chartering at MPV operator AAL Shipping. “We have heard about such cases of heavy-lift air freight shipments moving to ocean freight from our forwarder clients,” Willim told the Journal of Commerce. “It is, however, difficult for us to quantify how many times or which cargoes specifically have shifted. “Due to the typically urgent nature of these shipments, we have a policy of earliest possibly engagement and forward planning with our project customers…and we can plan and lock in sailings early to satisfy individual project or customer needs,” he added. There are few aircraft capable of transporting heavy-lift or outsized project cargo loads. These include the AN-124, the world’s largest commercial cargo aircraft operated by Ukraine’s Antonov Airlines, Boeing 747-400s and Ilyushin IL-76s, all with a 50-ton payload. The Airbus Beluga ST, based on an Airbus A300, can carry up to 40 mt. Due to the Russia-Ukraine war, only six AN-124 Ukraine-registered aircraft remain active in the global heavy-lift transportation market, but “two of these are dedicated to transporting arms and supplies to Ukraine,” a broker said. Ongoing aircraft maintenance means that only two to four AN-124s currently operate on the global commercial market, said the broker, who did not want to be identified. Volga-Dnepr Airlines, which claims to have a fleet of 10 AN-124s, only operates two aircraft because the rest are grounded due to Western sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. The two aircraft only operate between Russia and “friendly” countries including China, India and Kazakhstan. There are just two Ilyushin IL-76s available on the market today. “Boeing 747s are more widely available, operated by cargo airlines including Cargolux and Kalitta Air, and have the flexibility to load project cargo through their nose door. But technically, they are more limited due to cargo door dimensions and maximum permissible floor loads,” the broker added. Shippers hold for Beluga capacity Tight specialized air freight capacity is expected to continue into next year. Benoît Lemonnier, Airbus Beluga Transport’s managing director, anticipates the situation will improve next year when the airline, specially created by European aircraft maker Airbus, starts to more actively promote its five Beluga Super Transporter (ST) aircraft. The priorities for 2025 are Airbus-related cargoes including satellites and helicopters “and the upcoming transport of new payloads for external strategic customers,” Lemonnier told the Journal of Commerce. “Aeronautics, defense and space are the most active with Beluga at the moment.” Airbus Beluga Transport, which received its air operator’s certificate in November 2023, has focused on developing its operations, flying around 700 hours in the first nine months of this year mainly on European and a few long-range flights, he said. The Beluga ST has a 40 mt payload and the world’s largest interior cross-section of any transport aircraft, accommodating outsized cargo of up to 23 feet wide and 22 feet high. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

Heavy-haul transport

Project cargo

Breakbulk News

Lack of heavy-lift air freight capacity forces shift to ocean transport

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Steady-but-uninspiring demand for MPVs has kept freight rates at a sustainable level.</div>

Steady-but-uninspiring demand for MPVs has kept freight rates at a sustainable level.

<div class="phx-topic">Momentum for the multipurpose vessel (MPV) fleet has eased as renewables projects move slower than anticipated, leaving forward-booked tonnage free to re-enter the charter market and keeping freight rates in check.Michael Mørland, project cargo director/Atlantic at G2 Ocean, told the Journal of Commerce that the renewable segment has not really delivered the volume that was expected in 2024. “And the outlook for the remaining pipeline of projects is the same -- things are going slower than anticipated as the financing climate has been harder, and there are less volumes than anticipated,” Mørland said.This has led to an easing in freight rates because tonnage that had been allocated for the pipeline isn’t being utilized. “That ruins some of the momentum for the multipurpose fleets,” he said.One notable trend is US manufacturers switching supply to near-field production where possible, including from Mexico. “The more they get that bit right, the less they have to ship deepsea,” Mørland said. Toepfer Transport said in its Dec. 6 Multipurpose Shipping Report that the Atlantic trades have shown “gradual and modest positive development,” but are still below the level considered normal.“On both sides of the Atlantic, economic growth is slow, and there are some uncertainties about the impact of the next US presidency on global trade,” Toepfer said.Nevertheless, robust demand for tonnage in Asia still provides for stable vessel utilization, Toepfer added. The broker said it anticipates that the current sideways movement will “persist for a few more months,” although an improvement in rates is expected from the second quarter of 2025 onwards, subject to developments in the US. Toepfer projects a 2.57% increase in its Toepfer Multipurpose Index (TMI) by November 2025, year over year.Drewry Shipping Consultants’ indices echoed the steady, but uninspiring market. Published Dec. 6, its new Project Cargo Transport Index reached 175 points in November, up 0.6% from October, while its new General Cargo Index rose 1.4% to 145 points. The base point for both indices is 100 as of January 2019, and they have been calculated forward from that point.<div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="67c43007-3a39-487a-b219-50013baafc2a"></dynamic-object></div><h3>US cargo demand expected to pivot towards oil </h3>Looking to 2025, Mørland expects a shift in the cargo base for MPVs in the US.“It's quite clear that Donald Trump’s new government is not very pro-renewables,” he said. “They're more into the hydrocarbons and fossil fuels, and I do expect that will trickle down to the MPV fleet with more oil and gas and LNG-related projects in the future.”Fleet changes will also play into the sector’s capacity balance in the coming year. “When you look at the fleet balance, there will be a fair amount of tonnage exiting the fleet in the coming years,” Mørland said. “From G2 Ocean’s perspective in the next few years, there are quite a few ships that will be leaving because they're aging and, as publicized, we will be commencing a newbuild program to futureproof our fleet.”He said G2 Ocean is not the only carrier in that situation, and while there are newbuild programs in place, there is expected to be more MPV capacity exiting than being built. This will lead to tighter capacity. “So even if the market compresses, the market will flatten rather than reduce,” Mørland said.Toepfer’s TMI is based on expected average rates for six- to 12-month time charters for 12,500 dwt “F-Type” vessels with safe working load of 240 to 360 mt, as reported to Toepfer by owners and operators. Drewry’s new general cargo index is based on time charter rates collected from a range of stakeholders for general cargo, dry bulk, car and container carriers and on container freight rates. Drewry weights the various vessel types using estimates, based on its vessel supply/demand model, of how much non-containerized general cargo each sector is carrying and vessel utilization levels in those sectors. Drewry’s project cargo index incorporates time charter rates for various project carrier size categories along with direct competing sectors included in the general cargo index. Vessel types are again weighted according to proportion of project cargo estimated to be carried as per the supply/demand model.Contact Carly Fields at <a href="mailto:carly.fields@spglobal.com">carly.fields@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Momentum for the multipurpose vessel (MPV) fleet has eased as renewables projects move slower than anticipated, leaving forward-booked tonnage free to re-enter the charter market and keeping freight rates in check. Michael Mørland, project cargo director/Atlantic at G2 Ocean, told the Journal of Commerce that the renewable segment has not really delivered the volume that was expected in 2024. “And the outlook for the remaining pipeline of projects is the same -- things are going slower than anticipated as the financing climate has been harder, and there are less volumes than anticipated,” Mørland said. This has led to an easing in freight rates because tonnage that had been allocated for the pipeline isn’t being utilized. “That ruins some of the momentum for the multipurpose fleets,” he said. One notable trend is US manufacturers switching supply to near-field production where possible, including from Mexico. “The more they get that bit right, the less they have to ship deepsea,” Mørland said. Toepfer Transport said in its Dec. 6 Multipurpose Shipping Report that the Atlantic trades have shown “gradual and modest positive development,” but are still below the level considered normal. “On both sides of the Atlantic, economic growth is slow, and there are some uncertainties about the impact of the next US presidency on global trade,” Toepfer said. Nevertheless, robust demand for tonnage in Asia still provides for stable vessel utilization, Toepfer added. The broker said it anticipates that the current sideways movement will “persist for a few more months,” although an improvement in rates is expected from the second quarter of 2025 onwards, subject to developments in the US. Toepfer projects a 2.57% increase in its Toepfer Multipurpose Index (TMI) by November 2025, year over year. Drewry Shipping Consultants’ indices echoed the steady, but uninspiring market. Published Dec. 6, its new Project Cargo Transport Index reached 175 points in November, up 0.6% from October, while its new General Cargo Index rose 1.4% to 145 points. The base point for both indices is 100 as of January 2019, and they have been calculated forward from that point. US cargo demand expected to pivot towards oil Looking to 2025, Mørland expects a shift in the cargo base for MPVs in the US. “It's quite clear that Donald Trump’s new government is not very pro-renewables,” he said. “They're more into the hydrocarbons and fossil fuels, and I do expect that will trickle down to the MPV fleet with more oil and gas and LNG-related projects in the future.” Fleet changes will also play into the sector’s capacity balance in the coming year. “When you look at the fleet balance, there will be a fair amount of tonnage exiting the fleet in the coming years,” Mørland said. “From G2 Ocean’s perspective in the next few years, there are quite a few ships that will be leaving because they're aging and, as publicized, we will be commencing a newbuild program to futureproof our fleet.” He said G2 Ocean is not the only carrier in that situation, and while there are newbuild programs in place, there is expected to be more MPV capacity exiting than being built. This will lead to tighter capacity. “So even if the market compresses, the market will flatten rather than reduce,” Mørland said. Toepfer’s TMI is based on expected average rates for six- to 12-month time charters for 12,500 dwt “F-Type” vessels with safe working load of 240 to 360 mt, as reported to Toepfer by owners and operators. Drewry’s new general cargo index is based on time charter rates collected from a range of stakeholders for general cargo, dry bulk, car and container carriers and on container freight rates. Drewry weights the various vessel types using estimates, based on its vessel supply/demand model, of how much non-containerized general cargo each sector is carrying and vessel utilization levels in those sectors. Drewry’s project cargo index incorporates time charter rates for various project carrier size categories along with direct competing sectors included in the general cargo index. Vessel types are again weighted according to proportion of project cargo estimated to be carried as per the supply/demand model. Contact Carly Fields at carly.fields@spglobal.com .

Breakbulk carriers

Energy projects

Slow-moving renewable projects curtail MPV enthusiasm

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Global Port Tracker upgraded its forecast for imports over the next several months despite the threat of labor unrest and new tariffs by the incoming Trump administration. </div>

The Global Port Tracker upgraded its forecast for imports over the next several months despite the threat of labor unrest and new tariffs by the incoming Trump administration.

<div class="phx-topic">US retailers said Monday they expect a “continued surge” in imports through the spring due to cargo frontloading amid the specter of labor strife and new tariffs, although they held out hope both threats can be avoided. “Either a strike or new tariffs would be a blow to the economy and retailers are doing what they can to avoid the impact of either for as long as they can,” Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation (NRF), said in a statement. “We hope that both can be avoided, but bringing in cargo early is a prudent step to mitigate the impact on our industry, consumers and the nation’s economy.” Gold’s comments came as the NRF and Hackett Associates released their monthly Global Port Tracker (GPT), which significantly upgraded its import forecast from the November GPT. December imports are now projected at 2.14 million TEUs, up 14.3% year over year. Last month, retailers said December’s year-over-year gain would be 6.1%. The NRF now expects January imports to jump 12% compared with January 2024, up from the 2.5% gain forecast last month. February’s imports are expected to fall 4.1% year over year, although that’s an upgrade from the 9.3% decline originally forecast. March volumes are expected to jump 12.7% and April by 6.6% compared with the same months in 2024, according to the GPT. Total US imports for 2024 are now projected at 25.6 million TEUs, up 14.8% from 2023, the NFR said. Shippers are working <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/trans-pac-settles-into-sedate-december-before-new-years-uncertainties-5877172">to move goods</a> ahead of a potential Jan. 15 strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), the threat of new tariffs by the incoming Trump administration, and an early Lunar New Year holiday on Jan. 29. The most recent data available from PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, showed October imports climbing 10% over the year, maintaining a months-long pattern of double-digit year-over-year increases. October marked the 18th consecutive month of US imports above 2 million TEUs. If NRF forecasts come to fruition as projected, November and December imports will break the pandemic-era record of 19 straight months. Still, October did mark the first month since May where month-over-month imports didn’t increase, instead sliding by about 3% to 2.44 million TEUs — the softest month since June. Contact Laura Robb at <a href="mailto:laura.robb@spglobal.com">laura.robb@spglobal.com</a>.  </div>

US retailers said Monday they expect a “continued surge” in imports through the spring due to cargo frontloading amid the specter of labor strife and new tariffs, although they held out hope both threats can be avoided. “Either a strike or new tariffs would be a blow to the economy and retailers are doing what they can to avoid the impact of either for as long as they can,” Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation (NRF), said in a statement. “We hope that both can be avoided, but bringing in cargo early is a prudent step to mitigate the impact on our industry, consumers and the nation’s economy.” Gold’s comments came as the NRF and Hackett Associates released their monthly Global Port Tracker (GPT), which significantly upgraded its import forecast from the November GPT. December imports are now projected at 2.14 million TEUs, up 14.3% year over year. Last month, retailers said December’s year-over-year gain would be 6.1%. The NRF now expects January imports to jump 12% compared with January 2024, up from the 2.5% gain forecast last month. February’s imports are expected to fall 4.1% year over year, although that’s an upgrade from the 9.3% decline originally forecast. March volumes are expected to jump 12.7% and April by 6.6% compared with the same months in 2024, according to the GPT. Total US imports for 2024 are now projected at 25.6 million TEUs, up 14.8% from 2023, the NFR said. Shippers are working to move goods ahead of a potential Jan. 15 strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), the threat of new tariffs by the incoming Trump administration, and an early Lunar New Year holiday on Jan. 29. The most recent data available from PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, showed October imports climbing 10% over the year, maintaining a months-long pattern of double-digit year-over-year increases. October marked the 18th consecutive month of US imports above 2 million TEUs. If NRF forecasts come to fruition as projected, November and December imports will break the pandemic-era record of 19 straight months. Still, October did mark the first month since May where month-over-month imports didn’t increase, instead sliding by about 3% to 2.44 million TEUs — the softest month since June. Contact Laura Robb at laura.robb@spglobal.com . 

Supply chain

US import ‘surge’ to persist into spring amid continued frontloading: retailers

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">For-hire trucking companies are adding workers again, but not enough to handle any big surge in freight volumes, as prospective employees look for more local jobs.</div>

For-hire trucking companies are adding workers again, but not enough to handle any big surge in freight volumes, as prospective employees look for more local jobs.

<div class="phx-topic">US trucking companies increased hiring in November, adding 2,100 jobs to non-seasonally adjusted payrolls after two months of declining employment. But there are still fewer workers on loading docks and behind the wheel than a year ago, data released Friday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows. At 1.56 million, the number of US for-hire trucking employees reported by the BLS in November was 2,000 below the actual, unadjusted payroll number for November 2023. That’s more emblematic of a continuing freight shortage than a market recovery. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="2a48a771-5aa3-4b1c-8561-b26cbf3f1502"></dynamic-object></div>The data indicates the trucking industry — while hiring — is not rushing to add jobs ahead of any projected increase in freight demand in 2025. That market turning point may still be several quarters away, logistics and trucking executives say. “I know of [truck] fleets that are still downsizing,” said Dean Croke, principal analyst for DAT Freight &amp; Analytics. “Fleets still haven’t found equilibrium, and that’s alarming in a peak shipping season. They’re still on the back foot, trying to find the bottom.” The data shows that for-hire trucking employment hasn’t fully recovered from the sudden loss of 30,000 jobs in August 2023 following the collapse of Yellow, then the third-largest less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier in the US. Trucking employment dropped to a three-year low in early 2024 before rising last month to a level just 3,100 jobs higher than immediately after Yellow’s failure. Shippers with freight still have an upper hand in contract talks, but the cautious pace of hiring could become an issue for shippers seeking to ensure predictable truck capacity. Driver availability affects not only pricing but key shipper performance criteria such as on-time, in-full (OTIF) delivery rates. Fewer drivers mean less flexibility for carriers and shippers trying to hit OTIF targets for large retailers and retail wholesalers. <h3>Narrowing payroll gap </h3>The US trucking industry — especially the truckload sector — has been in contraction since the spring of 2022, with rates tumbling as demand for freight shipping dropped. The BLS measure of trucking employment has dropped 2.6% since its August 2022 peak. The Journal of Commerce For-Hire Trucking Employment Index, based on BLS data, was 102.5 in November, up from a revised reading of 102.4 in October, indicating that trucking employment levels are about 2.5% higher than the pre-pandemic peak in 2018. Data for sub-sectors of truck transportation support claims of an ongoing shift from long-distance employers such as for-hire truckload and LTL carriers to local freight haulers and express companies, including package delivery firms. General freight local trucking employment rose by 1,100 workers in October, the latest month for which sub-sector data is available. Employment in the general freight long-distance trucking sub-sector fell by 1,500 workers in the same period, BLS data showed. Long-haul truckload and LTL employment dropped by 900 and 600 workers, respectively, in October, according to the BLS data. Employment at couriers and express delivery services increased by 14,700 workers. <h3>Last-mile competition </h3>Long-distance trucking companies are increasingly competing with local and final-mile delivery companies, including retailers. Retailers such as Walmart have expanded private truck fleets and others are adding home-delivery services. “We are currently partnering with a third-party to offer delivery through our app from approximately 75 stores,” Todd Vasos, CEO of Dollar General, said during a Dec. 5 earnings call. The discount retailer also has a partnership with DoorDash. Although hiring is slow, more truck drivers may be looking for new jobs. A fall 2024 survey of nearly 20,000 truck drivers by Interactive Conversion Agency and PDA found 40.7% of respondents are job hunting, compared with 33.3% a year ago. The top reason by far, cited by 81.9% of respondents, was predictable pay, followed by 65.7% seeking better home time and 49.1% wanting more consistent miles per week. As most drivers are paid by the mile, consistent mileage is a major factor in predictable pay. The survey is a warning sign for large truckload carriers positioning themselves for an end to a 30-month freight downturn that is expected at some point in 2025. Those carriers will have to work harder to keep existing truck drivers as freight conditions improve. Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

US trucking companies increased hiring in November, adding 2,100 jobs to non-seasonally adjusted payrolls after two months of declining employment. But there are still fewer workers on loading docks and behind the wheel than a year ago, data released Friday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows. At 1.56 million, the number of US for-hire trucking employees reported by the BLS in November was 2,000 below the actual, unadjusted payroll number for November 2023. That’s more emblematic of a continuing freight shortage than a market recovery. The data indicates the trucking industry — while hiring — is not rushing to add jobs ahead of any projected increase in freight demand in 2025. That market turning point may still be several quarters away, logistics and trucking executives say. “I know of [truck] fleets that are still downsizing,” said Dean Croke, principal analyst for DAT Freight & Analytics. “Fleets still haven’t found equilibrium, and that’s alarming in a peak shipping season. They’re still on the back foot, trying to find the bottom.” The data shows that for-hire trucking employment hasn’t fully recovered from the sudden loss of 30,000 jobs in August 2023 following the collapse of Yellow, then the third-largest less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier in the US. Trucking employment dropped to a three-year low in early 2024 before rising last month to a level just 3,100 jobs higher than immediately after Yellow’s failure. Shippers with freight still have an upper hand in contract talks, but the cautious pace of hiring could become an issue for shippers seeking to ensure predictable truck capacity. Driver availability affects not only pricing but key shipper performance criteria such as on-time, in-full (OTIF) delivery rates. Fewer drivers mean less flexibility for carriers and shippers trying to hit OTIF targets for large retailers and retail wholesalers. Narrowing payroll gap The US trucking industry — especially the truckload sector — has been in contraction since the spring of 2022, with rates tumbling as demand for freight shipping dropped. The BLS measure of trucking employment has dropped 2.6% since its August 2022 peak. The Journal of Commerce For-Hire Trucking Employment Index, based on BLS data, was 102.5 in November, up from a revised reading of 102.4 in October, indicating that trucking employment levels are about 2.5% higher than the pre-pandemic peak in 2018. Data for sub-sectors of truck transportation support claims of an ongoing shift from long-distance employers such as for-hire truckload and LTL carriers to local freight haulers and express companies, including package delivery firms. General freight local trucking employment rose by 1,100 workers in October, the latest month for which sub-sector data is available. Employment in the general freight long-distance trucking sub-sector fell by 1,500 workers in the same period, BLS data showed. Long-haul truckload and LTL employment dropped by 900 and 600 workers, respectively, in October, according to the BLS data. Employment at couriers and express delivery services increased by 14,700 workers. Last-mile competition Long-distance trucking companies are increasingly competing with local and final-mile delivery companies, including retailers. Retailers such as Walmart have expanded private truck fleets and others are adding home-delivery services. “We are currently partnering with a third-party to offer delivery through our app from approximately 75 stores,” Todd Vasos, CEO of Dollar General, said during a Dec. 5 earnings call. The discount retailer also has a partnership with DoorDash. Although hiring is slow, more truck drivers may be looking for new jobs. A fall 2024 survey of nearly 20,000 truck drivers by Interactive Conversion Agency and PDA found 40.7% of respondents are job hunting, compared with 33.3% a year ago. The top reason by far, cited by 81.9% of respondents, was predictable pay, followed by 65.7% seeking better home time and 49.1% wanting more consistent miles per week. As most drivers are paid by the mile, consistent mileage is a major factor in predictable pay. The survey is a warning sign for large truckload carriers positioning themselves for an end to a 30-month freight downturn that is expected at some point in 2025. Those carriers will have to work harder to keep existing truck drivers as freight conditions improve. Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .

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Trucking labor

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US trucking employment rising, but lags 2023 amid soft demand

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The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

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Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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Filling the Supply Chain Education Gap with LTL Education Courses

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