<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The LTL carrier said it will open 15 to 20 terminals this year in a cadence that will help improve efficiency in its network.</div>

The LTL carrier said it will open 15 to 20 terminals this year in a cadence that will help improve efficiency in its network.

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<div>US less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier Saia is not only buying new terminals but also relocating older facilities to new sites as it fine-tunes its expanding network. “These relocated terminals often offer multiple benefits, including better strategic position in the market and added capacity to better serve existing customers,” Saia CEO Frederick J. Holzgrefe said during the company’s first-quarter earnings call last week. “As we continue to absorb the growth in volumes compared to the prior year, we’ve continued investing in our network to maintain our services while also optimizing how we provide the service with our expanding line haul and driving...

US less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier Saia is not only buying new terminals but also relocating older facilities to new sites as it fine-tunes its expanding network. “These relocated terminals often offer multiple benefits, including better strategic position in the market and added capacity to better serve existing customers,” Saia CEO Frederick J. Holzgrefe said during the company’s first-quarter earnings call last week. “As we continue to absorb the growth in volumes compared to the prior year, we’ve continued investing in our network to maintain our services while also optimizing how we provide the service with our expanding line haul and driving teams,” Holzgrefe added. Saia has proved to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the collapse of Yellow last July, increasing its average daily shipment count nearly 16% year over year in the first quarter to approximately 33,000 shipments per day. In April, daily shipments are up 17%. That’s in a market where underlying trends are still “lackluster,” Holzgrefe said. Saia also acquired 28 terminals from Yellow through auctions late last year, and the company is preparing to open them. “We’ve opened seven new locations in the past 12 months, and our employee count has grown significantly, allowing us to staff the new locations and enabling us to handle the growth in volumes,” said Holzgrefe. “Our plans to open 15 to 20 terminals in total this year remain, and we’ll also continue relocating some existing terminals as we’ve done with four so far this year,” he added. As a result, Saia’s capital expenditures this year are expected to hit $1 billion. “We’ve already opened four new facilities in April alone, and we plan to open two relocated facilities before the end of the quarter,” Holzgrefe said. Saia will open additional terminals in the Great Plains region this summer, building network density in that part of the US, he said. Ongoing LTL restructuring Saia’s terminal expansion is part of the restructuring of the LTL sector in the wake of the failure of Yellow, which until last July was the third-largest US LTL provider, owning four carrier subsidiaries. Nearly 50,000 daily shipments moved by Yellow were reallocated throughout the LTL sector last year, and 163 Yellow terminals, to date, have been sold at auction. Saia acquired 28 terminals from Yellow, while competitors Estes Express Lines purchased 29, XPO bought 28 and Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings acquired 25. Several other carriers, large and small, acquired smaller numbers of properties . All of those companies are moving quickly to refurbish and reopen the Yellow terminals. Knight-Swift last week said it plans to open 32 terminals this year. XPO opened three of the 28 facilities it acquired from Yellow this month. Estes opened three terminals this month and plans to open the rest of its terminals acquired from Yellow by the end of the year. If they occur as planned, the reopenings will reintroduce a sizeable amount of capacity to the LTL market by the year’s end. That capacity was down 10% year over year in March, according to transportation research firm SJ Consulting Group. Scheduled terminal reopenings The terminal reopenings aren’t happening all at once, and the scheduling of their arrival is important, Saia executives said. “We view these as long-term investments, with multi-year returns, a 10-year sort of horizon,” Holzgrefe said. The company’s initial focus is on locations where there’s “an immediate service lift for our customers,” such as in Trenton, NJ, and Garland, Texas, said Holzgrefe. Those facilities “are simply in markets that we already are serving and to some extent we’re doing it inefficiently,” he told Wall Street analysts. Over the summer, Saia plans to open terminals in the Great Plains states. To date, there’s been little to no impact on pricing, either at Saia or in the broader LTL market, Saia executives said. The company said it received an average 9.2% rate increase in its first-quarter annual contract renewals. The US long-distance LTL producer price index (PPI), a measure of all-inclusive shipper-paid LTL pricing, was up 5.2% year over year in March. The LTL PPI is down 5.4% from its June 2022 peak. “If we can maintain the level of service that justifies the rate increase, that’s where we’re most successful,” Holzgrefe said. “And if you look across the industry, I think people are trying to adopt similar strategies because fundamentally, additional volume at a lower rate in this business doesn’t make any sense.” Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .

Trucking News

Surface

Saia opening LTL terminals as it absorbs double-digit volume gains

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Federal Maritime Commission said that it needs more information about the new grouping of ocean carriers known as the Premier Alliance before the vessel-sharing agreement can begin in February on US trades. </div>

The Federal Maritime Commission said that it needs more information about the new grouping of ocean carriers known as the Premier Alliance before the vessel-sharing agreement can begin in February on US trades.

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<div class="phx-topic">The Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) on Friday has halted Premier Alliance from becoming effective next week as scheduled, citing insufficient information on the alliance set to sail in February. The FMC said the proposed agreement from Ocean Network Express, HMM and Yang Ming “lacks sufficient detail to allow for a complete analysis of potential competitive impacts and whether the agreement fully complies with all statutory requirements.” The Premier Alliance on Friday released details of its <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/north-america-trade-to-dominate-premier-alliances-network-launch-in-february-5877233">new network</a>. Premier members had been partners in the THE Alliance with Hapag-Lloyd. But with Hapag-Lloyd’s decision to bolt THE Alliance in favor of joining Maersk in the 2M Cooperation, the three carriers <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/msc-strikes-asia-europe-slot-share-with-former-thea-members-5723585">banded together</a> in September under a new name and with a slot-sharing agreement in the trans-Pacific trade with Mediterranean Shipping Co. The FMC has a 45-day window from when it collects the information to issue the formal go-ahead for the Premier Alliance, and any shippers wishing to weigh in will be able to do so during a 15-day window that starts next week. Such requests for additional information from the FMC are common, with the Gemini Cooperation <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/fmc-wants-maersk-hapag-lloyd-to-provide-more-details-on-gemini-alliance-5192298">itself having received</a> one in July. The agency later determined there were no competitive impacts to Gemini but vowed to keep <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/fmc-wont-block-gemini-alliance-but-vows-tight-monitoring-5724939">an eye</a> on the new alliance. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com ">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) on Friday has halted Premier Alliance from becoming effective next week as scheduled, citing insufficient information on the alliance set to sail in February. The FMC said the proposed agreement from Ocean Network Express, HMM and Yang Ming “lacks sufficient detail to allow for a complete analysis of potential competitive impacts and whether the agreement fully complies with all statutory requirements.” The Premier Alliance on Friday released details of its new network . Premier members had been partners in the THE Alliance with Hapag-Lloyd. But with Hapag-Lloyd’s decision to bolt THE Alliance in favor of joining Maersk in the 2M Cooperation, the three carriers banded together in September under a new name and with a slot-sharing agreement in the trans-Pacific trade with Mediterranean Shipping Co. The FMC has a 45-day window from when it collects the information to issue the formal go-ahead for the Premier Alliance, and any shippers wishing to weigh in will be able to do so during a 15-day window that starts next week. Such requests for additional information from the FMC are common, with the Gemini Cooperation itself having received one in July. The agency later determined there were no competitive impacts to Gemini but vowed to keep an eye on the new alliance. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

Asia-Europe

Trans-Pacific

Container lines

FMC halts Premier Alliance start for more information

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Asia-North America trade will be featured on 13 of the initial 24 services inaugurated by the ONE-HMM-Yang Ming partnership.</div>

The Asia-North America trade will be featured on 13 of the initial 24 services inaugurated by the ONE-HMM-Yang Ming partnership.

<div class="phx-topic">The Asia-North America trade will be the cornerstone of the Premier Alliance's network when it launches its initial 24 services in February, according to schedules released Friday by alliance members Ocean Network Express (ONE) and HMM. The first tranche of services will cover four main east-west trades — trans-Pacific, Asia-Europe, Asia-Mediterranean and Asia-Middle East, the schedules showed. Taiwan’s Yang Ming Marine Transport is the third member of the Premier Alliance. Network documents released by ONE show the Premier Alliance will eventually grow to operate 34 services transiting via the Cape of Good Hope, with 29 services on the Red Sea/Suez Canal transit option. The alliance has not yet announced which routing it will choose for the February launch, although the Maersk/Hapag-Lloyd Gemini Cooperation <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/maersk-rules-out-suez-canal-routings-for-gemini-launch-5746470">has already opted to transit via southern Africa</a> given the still-unsettled security situation in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The Asia-North America trade will dominate the Premier Alliance network whichever routing is selected, with 13 services out of the initial 24 focused on the Americas trade.The first sailing to the US West Coast will be on Feb. 3 when the 8,084-TEU Conti Conquest deployed on the Pacific Southwest 3 service departs Singapore. The first sailing to the US East Coast will be by the 13,870-TEU One Manchester operating the EC3 service that will depart Thailand’s Laem Chabang port on Feb. 8. Vessel schedules show nine services will operate to the West Coast in February, with four to the East Coast. Alliance carriers have not yet released details of March sailings from Asia. The alliance carriers said the launch of two further services — Pacific Southwest 5 (PS5) and Pacific Northwest 4 (PN4) — between Asia and the West Coast have been postponed until May; none of the carriers gave an explanation for the delay. Instead, the Premier Alliance will strengthen coverage of three other West Coast services with extra port calls. The Premier Alliance network also shows seven services on the Asia-Europe trade, of which six will be inaugurated in February, and seven on the Asia-Mediterranean/Middle East loop, with five launched in February. The number of services on the Asia-Europe and Asia-Mediterranean routes will remain the same whether the Cape of Good Hope or Red Sea/Suez Canal routing is chosen. The first Asia-Europe sailing by the new alliance will be made by the 8,212-TEU One Henry Hudson on the Far East Pacific 1 service that will depart Shimizu, Japan, on Feb. 4. The 15,908-TEU MSC Venice, deployed on the MD3 service, will inaugurate the first sailing on Premier’s Asia-Mediterranean trade when it departs Xingang in China on Feb. 2. Mediterranean Shipping Co. <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/mscs-global-scale-enables-standalone-network-coverage-5726563">has a slot-swap arrangement</a> with the Premier Alliance. Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>. </div>

The Asia-North America trade will be the cornerstone of the Premier Alliance's network when it launches its initial 24 services in February, according to schedules released Friday by alliance members Ocean Network Express (ONE) and HMM. The first tranche of services will cover four main east-west trades — trans-Pacific, Asia-Europe, Asia-Mediterranean and Asia-Middle East, the schedules showed. Taiwan’s Yang Ming Marine Transport is the third member of the Premier Alliance. Network documents released by ONE show the Premier Alliance will eventually grow to operate 34 services transiting via the Cape of Good Hope, with 29 services on the Red Sea/Suez Canal transit option. The alliance has not yet announced which routing it will choose for the February launch, although the Maersk/Hapag-Lloyd Gemini Cooperation has already opted to transit via southern Africa given the still-unsettled security situation in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The Asia-North America trade will dominate the Premier Alliance network whichever routing is selected, with 13 services out of the initial 24 focused on the Americas trade. The first sailing to the US West Coast will be on Feb. 3 when the 8,084-TEU Conti Conquest deployed on the Pacific Southwest 3 service departs Singapore. The first sailing to the US East Coast will be by the 13,870-TEU One Manchester operating the EC3 service that will depart Thailand’s Laem Chabang port on Feb. 8. Vessel schedules show nine services will operate to the West Coast in February, with four to the East Coast. Alliance carriers have not yet released details of March sailings from Asia. The alliance carriers said the launch of two further services — Pacific Southwest 5 (PS5) and Pacific Northwest 4 (PN4) — between Asia and the West Coast have been postponed until May; none of the carriers gave an explanation for the delay. Instead, the Premier Alliance will strengthen coverage of three other West Coast services with extra port calls. The Premier Alliance network also shows seven services on the Asia-Europe trade, of which six will be inaugurated in February, and seven on the Asia-Mediterranean/Middle East loop, with five launched in February. The number of services on the Asia-Europe and Asia-Mediterranean routes will remain the same whether the Cape of Good Hope or Red Sea/Suez Canal routing is chosen. The first Asia-Europe sailing by the new alliance will be made by the 8,212-TEU One Henry Hudson on the Far East Pacific 1 service that will depart Shimizu, Japan, on Feb. 4. The 15,908-TEU MSC Venice, deployed on the MD3 service, will inaugurate the first sailing on Premier’s Asia-Mediterranean trade when it departs Xingang in China on Feb. 2. Mediterranean Shipping Co. has a slot-swap arrangement with the Premier Alliance. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

Container Shipping News

Maritime

North America trade to dominate Premier Alliance’s network launch in February

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The extensive frontloading of imports that occurred this fall will keep cargo volumes modest this month, but the vagaries of labor negotiations and new tariffs threaten to disrupt the market in short order.</div>

The extensive frontloading of imports that occurred this fall will keep cargo volumes modest this month, but the vagaries of labor negotiations and new tariffs threaten to disrupt the market in short order.

<div class="phx-topic">The overheated trans–Pacific Ocean market is in the midst of a December respite after months of extensive frontloading, but can quickly become roiled again given the razor's-edge nature of longshore labor talks and the threats of new tariffs by the incoming Trump administration. “Once we get to January, whether it’s on the political front, the labor front, the alliance shake-up, everything is coming fast,” Sanjay Tejwani, CEO of consulting firm 365 Logistics, told the Journal of Commerce. Also in the background is an early Lunar New Year, which begins Jan. 29 and will likely mean imports from Asia perk up again from early January ahead of the holiday factory closures that take place in the region. The import pop will take place mostly at West Coast ports. “The East Coast will drop off. The West Coast will remain robust,” a carrier executive said. Meantime, with plentiful vessel capacity scheduled and reduced blanking, sources say they expect continued downward pressure on spot rates that have been in retreat since July. Rates from Asia to the US West Coast were at $2,400 per FEU as of Thursday, down 4% on the week and sharply off the July peak of over $8,000, according to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Christian Sur, executive vice president of ocean freight contract logistics at the forwarder Unique Logistics International, said there are three levels of spot/freight-all-kinds rates in the current market — “window” rates as high as $5,000 per FEU to the West Coast that some importers are willing to pay to ensure loading of their freight; the more prevalent market rates listed on the indexes, such as the $2,400 per FEU rate listed by Platts; and special “bullet” rates offered by some carriers in specific trade lanes based on demand. “Those (bullet) rates are in the low $2,000s, but they’re not across the board,” Sur said. Still, the market knows full well those rates are now at the mercy of a looming Jan. 15 deadline for the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) to reach agreement on a new master contract and head off a second strike at ports along the US East and Gulf coasts. A multiday ILA strike in January would sustain the diversion of cargo to West Coast ports and add to the complexity that importers already face in planning their supply chains. “My assessment is we are more likely to see a strike than not see a strike, and if we do get a strike, it will last longer,” Lars Jensen, CEO and partner at Vespucci Maritime, told a Journal of Commerce webinar Thursday. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="e7a65aab-9aac-4f07-9b74-1793746c01ef"></dynamic-object></div><h3>Navigating tariff uncertainty</h3>On the political front, importers are facing an increasingly tangible tariff threat in 2025 after President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to implement tariffs on foreign goods has <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-importers-dabbling-in-frontloading-ahead-of-new-tariff-threat-5821448">pushed some shippers to move cargo early.</a>The major uncertainty that importers will face after Trump takes office in January is what level of tariffs he will impose on which countries and when those tariffs will go into effect. “It’s fair to say nobody knows for sure,” Jensen said. It is likely that many retailers are preparing to frontload shipments if they haven’t already done so, especially if they have space in their warehouses to store the product until needed. Inventory levels at warehouses across the United States were generally high before the Black Friday in-store sales and Cyber Monday online sales, said Scott Weiss, vice president of technical sales-warehouse and distribution service for North America at A.P. Moeller-Maersk. The <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/cargo-push-to-continue-amid-mounting-market-pressures-zim-5821532">US inventory-to-retail sales ratio in September</a>, the most recent reading from the US Census Bureau, was elevated to levels not seen since before the pandemic buying spree began. “The sales were strong, so the inventory was here,” Weiss said. “However, as the inventory goes down through the holidays, space will open up for the frontloading of spring merchandise, which is occurring somewhat earlier than usual,” he said. Nevertheless, a consultant and former logistics manager at two national retailers said importers must assess inventory carrying costs and all the uncertainties surrounding tariffs as they review their frontloading plans. “There’s only so much you can frontload,” the source said. Many importers diversified supply chains after Trump’s initial round of tariffs that were implemented during his first term in office. “We successfully [addressed previous tariffs] through a combination of vendor collaboration, product reengineering and assortment changes, (and) moving product sourcing to other countries...,” said Five Below CEO Ken Bull. “We expect to utilize these tools and tactics again." <h3>Growing supply and stable demand</h3>Meanwhile, the US West Coast is poised for significant capacity injections in December and January, forecasted by maritime intelligence firm eeSea to reach a record 1.5 million TEUs in January. The company also forecasts a December blanking rate of about 1% on the East Coast and 6.7% for the West Coast. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="953f7c86-635d-4cba-9cb7-ffe651937158"></dynamic-object></div>If blanks and capacity estimates come to fruition at eeSea’s projected rates, actual capacity into the East Coast for December will climb by 27.6%, while West Coast capacity will drop 1.1%. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>. Contact Laura Robb at <a href="mailto:laura.robb@spglobal.com">laura.robb@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The overheated trans–Pacific Ocean market is in the midst of a December respite after months of extensive frontloading, but can quickly become roiled again given the razor's-edge nature of longshore labor talks and the threats of new tariffs by the incoming Trump administration. “Once we get to January, whether it’s on the political front, the labor front, the alliance shake-up, everything is coming fast,” Sanjay Tejwani, CEO of consulting firm 365 Logistics, told the Journal of Commerce. Also in the background is an early Lunar New Year, which begins Jan. 29 and will likely mean imports from Asia perk up again from early January ahead of the holiday factory closures that take place in the region. The import pop will take place mostly at West Coast ports. “The East Coast will drop off. The West Coast will remain robust,” a carrier executive said. Meantime, with plentiful vessel capacity scheduled and reduced blanking, sources say they expect continued downward pressure on spot rates that have been in retreat since July. Rates from Asia to the US West Coast were at $2,400 per FEU as of Thursday, down 4% on the week and sharply off the July peak of over $8,000, according to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Christian Sur, executive vice president of ocean freight contract logistics at the forwarder Unique Logistics International, said there are three levels of spot/freight-all-kinds rates in the current market — “window” rates as high as $5,000 per FEU to the West Coast that some importers are willing to pay to ensure loading of their freight; the more prevalent market rates listed on the indexes, such as the $2,400 per FEU rate listed by Platts; and special “bullet” rates offered by some carriers in specific trade lanes based on demand. “Those (bullet) rates are in the low $2,000s, but they’re not across the board,” Sur said. Still, the market knows full well those rates are now at the mercy of a looming Jan. 15 deadline for the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) to reach agreement on a new master contract and head off a second strike at ports along the US East and Gulf coasts. A multiday ILA strike in January would sustain the diversion of cargo to West Coast ports and add to the complexity that importers already face in planning their supply chains. “My assessment is we are more likely to see a strike than not see a strike, and if we do get a strike, it will last longer,” Lars Jensen, CEO and partner at Vespucci Maritime, told a Journal of Commerce webinar Thursday. Navigating tariff uncertainty On the political front, importers are facing an increasingly tangible tariff threat in 2025 after President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to implement tariffs on foreign goods has pushed some shippers to move cargo early. The major uncertainty that importers will face after Trump takes office in January is what level of tariffs he will impose on which countries and when those tariffs will go into effect. “It’s fair to say nobody knows for sure,” Jensen said. It is likely that many retailers are preparing to frontload shipments if they haven’t already done so, especially if they have space in their warehouses to store the product until needed. Inventory levels at warehouses across the United States were generally high before the Black Friday in-store sales and Cyber Monday online sales, said Scott Weiss, vice president of technical sales-warehouse and distribution service for North America at A.P. Moeller-Maersk. The US inventory-to-retail sales ratio in September , the most recent reading from the US Census Bureau, was elevated to levels not seen since before the pandemic buying spree began. “The sales were strong, so the inventory was here,” Weiss said. “However, as the inventory goes down through the holidays, space will open up for the frontloading of spring merchandise, which is occurring somewhat earlier than usual,” he said. Nevertheless, a consultant and former logistics manager at two national retailers said importers must assess inventory carrying costs and all the uncertainties surrounding tariffs as they review their frontloading plans. “There’s only so much you can frontload,” the source said. Many importers diversified supply chains after Trump’s initial round of tariffs that were implemented during his first term in office. “We successfully [addressed previous tariffs] through a combination of vendor collaboration, product reengineering and assortment changes, (and) moving product sourcing to other countries...,” said Five Below CEO Ken Bull. “We expect to utilize these tools and tactics again." Growing supply and stable demand Meanwhile, the US West Coast is poised for significant capacity injections in December and January, forecasted by maritime intelligence firm eeSea to reach a record 1.5 million TEUs in January. The company also forecasts a December blanking rate of about 1% on the East Coast and 6.7% for the West Coast. If blanks and capacity estimates come to fruition at eeSea’s projected rates, actual capacity into the East Coast for December will climb by 27.6%, while West Coast capacity will drop 1.1%. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com . Contact Laura Robb at laura.robb@spglobal.com .

Supply chain

Port News

Trans-Pac settles into sedate December before New Year’s uncertainties

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Air cargo is seeing a greater volume of non-essential products to get around container shipping challenges, a move that comes at a substantial cost to shippers.</div>

Air cargo is seeing a greater volume of non-essential products to get around container shipping challenges, a move that comes at a substantial cost to shippers.

<div class="phx-topic">More than 12 months of double-digit air cargo demand growth that has outstripped available capacity is combining with constant waves of disruption to force shippers and their service providers to better plan their use of air freight. Usually regarded by ocean shippers as an emergency option, air cargo is seeing a greater volume of non-essential products to get around container shipping challenges, a move that comes at a substantial cost to shippers. Yngve Ruud, executive vice president of air logistics at Kuehne + Nagel, said 2024 has been a year in which resilience in supply chains has become even more important for logistics customers. “With demand outpacing capacity, coupled with the impact of strikes, the situation in the Red Sea, geopolitical events, and challenges with the amount of available aircraft due to a delay in delivery of new freighters and a rising average fleet age, customers have been looking to us to help them strengthen their supply chains,” Ruud told the Journal of Commerce Friday. Kuehne + Nagel has responded by working with its preferred carrier partners to secure space for customers, tightly managing its own freighter capacity and introducing a weekly charter between Shanghai and Frankfurt. Bogen Chi, director of air freight at forwarder C.H. Robinson, said in a recent market update that for critical just-in-time inventory such as pharmaceuticals and automotive goods, the preference for air freight was justified. “However, air capacity has increasingly been flooded by non-essential freight that doesn’t need to be moved through air, which is driving up costs and further straining available capacity,” he said. “Adjusting shipping strategies to include flexibility and a mix of modes will continue to be important in 2025,” Chi added. “Air forecasting is becoming increasingly difficult, so evaluating the freight that is truly urgent and worthy of air will be critical for risk mitigation and cost savings.” The financial consequences of being forced into the spot market at short notice were illustrated in data from the Baltic Air Index (BAI) this week that shows the average Shanghai to North Europe spot rate of $5.07 per kilogram was the highest in almost two years, while the Shanghai-North America rate of $6.61/kg is the highest so far this year. Rate benchmarking platform Xeneta shows global air freight volume in November recorded its 13th consecutive month of double-digit growth as load factors hit their highest level since April 2022. In the 11 months up to November, demand has increased by more than 12% while available capacity has grown 4.8% <h3>Avoiding supply chain chaos </h3>Better planning by forwarders and cargo owners to overcome that yawning supply-demand balance was highlighted by Xeneta’s chief air freight officer Niall van de Wouw, who said a maturity has emerged in the industry that has managed to avoid the supply-demand chaos seen during last year’s heavily imbalanced market. “What we witnessed in 2023 was a mess and a valuable lesson,” he said in a monthly air freight update Thursday. “In 2024, we are seeing those lessons put into practice.” In 2023, a slowdown in air cargo demand in the US and Europe corresponded with huge amounts of below-deck belly cargo space being injected into the Asia trade lanes as passenger travel ramped up following the lifting of pandemic restrictions. Forwarders <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/long-term-chartered-air-freight-capacity-depressing-market-dsv-5216162">with chartered capacity they were unable to fill</a> took a financial hit, but toward the end of the year when business ramped up, all available space was quickly filled and rates took off. “We are witnessing a much more grown-up air cargo market based on better allocation of resources and better terms and conditions between all parties involved,” van de Wouw noted. “The peak in 2023, in comparison, saw a shortage of capacity and rates going crazy, all at the expense of shippers.” The better use of planning in air cargo strategies was also noticed by Netherlands-based air freight analyst WorldACD. “The figures reflect worldwide air cargo markets that remain relatively strong, including ex-Asia Pacific, but where good advance planning by air cargo stakeholders looks set to avert a major peak season capacity crunch and very steep rate rises in the final weeks of the year,” the analyst noted in its November market report released this week. <h3>Sharp rise in Chinese production </h3>Manufacturing sector conditions in China, regarded as an early indicator of strength in the air cargo industry, improved significantly in November, according to the latest China Caixin Manufacturing PMI compiled by S&amp;P Global, parent company of the Journal of Commerce. Incoming new orders placed with Chinese manufacturers in November increased at the fastest rate in three-and-a-half years. Panelists in the PMI survey attributed reasons for the rise in new work to better underlying demand conditions in key markets, new product launches and stockpiling following the US presidential election. “External demand bounced back, due partly to some overseas clients upping purchases after the US election, pushing the indicator into positive territory for the first time in four months,” Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group, said in his analysis of the November PMI result. The positive manufacturing indicator could not dispel concerns over a potential economic slowdown in China. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) noted in its latest monthly update that weak domestic activity may lead to reduced air cargo exports as lower consumer spending and deflationary pressures on producers decrease demand for imported goods and reduce outbound trade volume. As the air cargo industry hurtles toward the end of a solid year, Xeneta’s van de Wouw said despite the 10% increase in November volume compared with an extremely busy corresponding month last year, it was not an industry “out of control.” “The closing months of 2024 could have been very messy again for shippers, but we are not hearing that,” he said. “That’s not because the volumes are not there, or the flights are not full, it is because everything, overall, is being managed better.” Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

More than 12 months of double-digit air cargo demand growth that has outstripped available capacity is combining with constant waves of disruption to force shippers and their service providers to better plan their use of air freight. Usually regarded by ocean shippers as an emergency option, air cargo is seeing a greater volume of non-essential products to get around container shipping challenges, a move that comes at a substantial cost to shippers. Yngve Ruud, executive vice president of air logistics at Kuehne + Nagel, said 2024 has been a year in which resilience in supply chains has become even more important for logistics customers. “With demand outpacing capacity, coupled with the impact of strikes, the situation in the Red Sea, geopolitical events, and challenges with the amount of available aircraft due to a delay in delivery of new freighters and a rising average fleet age, customers have been looking to us to help them strengthen their supply chains,” Ruud told the Journal of Commerce Friday. Kuehne + Nagel has responded by working with its preferred carrier partners to secure space for customers, tightly managing its own freighter capacity and introducing a weekly charter between Shanghai and Frankfurt. Bogen Chi, director of air freight at forwarder C.H. Robinson, said in a recent market update that for critical just-in-time inventory such as pharmaceuticals and automotive goods, the preference for air freight was justified. “However, air capacity has increasingly been flooded by non-essential freight that doesn’t need to be moved through air, which is driving up costs and further straining available capacity,” he said. “Adjusting shipping strategies to include flexibility and a mix of modes will continue to be important in 2025,” Chi added. “Air forecasting is becoming increasingly difficult, so evaluating the freight that is truly urgent and worthy of air will be critical for risk mitigation and cost savings.” The financial consequences of being forced into the spot market at short notice were illustrated in data from the Baltic Air Index (BAI) this week that shows the average Shanghai to North Europe spot rate of $5.07 per kilogram was the highest in almost two years, while the Shanghai-North America rate of $6.61/kg is the highest so far this year. Rate benchmarking platform Xeneta shows global air freight volume in November recorded its 13th consecutive month of double-digit growth as load factors hit their highest level since April 2022. In the 11 months up to November, demand has increased by more than 12% while available capacity has grown 4.8% Avoiding supply chain chaos Better planning by forwarders and cargo owners to overcome that yawning supply-demand balance was highlighted by Xeneta’s chief air freight officer Niall van de Wouw, who said a maturity has emerged in the industry that has managed to avoid the supply-demand chaos seen during last year’s heavily imbalanced market. “What we witnessed in 2023 was a mess and a valuable lesson,” he said in a monthly air freight update Thursday. “In 2024, we are seeing those lessons put into practice.” In 2023, a slowdown in air cargo demand in the US and Europe corresponded with huge amounts of below-deck belly cargo space being injected into the Asia trade lanes as passenger travel ramped up following the lifting of pandemic restrictions. Forwarders with chartered capacity they were unable to fill took a financial hit, but toward the end of the year when business ramped up, all available space was quickly filled and rates took off. “We are witnessing a much more grown-up air cargo market based on better allocation of resources and better terms and conditions between all parties involved,” van de Wouw noted. “The peak in 2023, in comparison, saw a shortage of capacity and rates going crazy, all at the expense of shippers.” The better use of planning in air cargo strategies was also noticed by Netherlands-based air freight analyst WorldACD. “The figures reflect worldwide air cargo markets that remain relatively strong, including ex-Asia Pacific, but where good advance planning by air cargo stakeholders looks set to avert a major peak season capacity crunch and very steep rate rises in the final weeks of the year,” the analyst noted in its November market report released this week. Sharp rise in Chinese production Manufacturing sector conditions in China, regarded as an early indicator of strength in the air cargo industry, improved significantly in November, according to the latest China Caixin Manufacturing PMI compiled by S&P Global, parent company of the Journal of Commerce. Incoming new orders placed with Chinese manufacturers in November increased at the fastest rate in three-and-a-half years. Panelists in the PMI survey attributed reasons for the rise in new work to better underlying demand conditions in key markets, new product launches and stockpiling following the US presidential election. “External demand bounced back, due partly to some overseas clients upping purchases after the US election, pushing the indicator into positive territory for the first time in four months,” Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group, said in his analysis of the November PMI result. The positive manufacturing indicator could not dispel concerns over a potential economic slowdown in China. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) noted in its latest monthly update that weak domestic activity may lead to reduced air cargo exports as lower consumer spending and deflationary pressures on producers decrease demand for imported goods and reduce outbound trade volume. As the air cargo industry hurtles toward the end of a solid year, Xeneta’s van de Wouw said despite the 10% increase in November volume compared with an extremely busy corresponding month last year, it was not an industry “out of control.” “The closing months of 2024 could have been very messy again for shippers, but we are not hearing that,” he said. “That’s not because the volumes are not there, or the flights are not full, it is because everything, overall, is being managed better.” Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

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Air Cargo

Air freight users forced to better manage heavily imbalanced market

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Strong bookings out of Asia require more capacity than carriers can provide, which, according to Hapag-Lloyd, is having the predictable impact on prices.</div>

Strong bookings out of Asia require more capacity than carriers can provide, which, according to Hapag-Lloyd, is having the predictable impact on prices.

<div class="phx-topic">Average spot market rates from Asia to North Europe and the Mediterranean have continued their upward trajectory into December, driven by ocean carrier rate increases on Dec. 1 and sustained demand ahead of an early Lunar New Year that starts on Jan. 29. Data from Drewry shows rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam as of Thursday shot up 19% compared with the previous week to $4,775 per FEU, with Shanghai-Genoa rates rising 22% to $5,496/FEU. Average rates assessed by Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, show Asia-North Europe rates edging up to $5,133/FEU and Asia-Mediterranean rates to $5,400/FEU as of Wednesday. Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen said while the market environment remained difficult to read because of the longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope, there was no sign of any slowdown in demand. “All the export trades out of Asia have been very strong,” he told reporters during a briefing this week. “The market is strong because of an early [Lunar] New Year and the change in the US presidency with some people pulling volume forward, so we expect volume to remain strong at least into the first quarter.” Habben Jansen said sailing around the Cape of Good Hope meant there was a lot more capacity required than carriers were able to provide. “We saw 11% growth of the fleet this year, but the TEU miles are up 18%, and that clearly illustrates why the idle fleet is so low and a lot of carriers are speeding up vessels,” he told reporters. The longer voyages around southern Africa to avoid the Red Sea are also influencing the Asia-Europe shipping patterns of global retailer Guess, according to Dennis Secor, interim CFO. “We have accelerated deliveries from our suppliers — not ordering more, just taking delivery sooner — and most of that inventory was in transit to our warehouses at the end of the third quarter,” Secor told analysts in an earnings call last week. <h3>Capitalizing on demand </h3>In this demand-driven environment, ocean carriers are moving to capitalize ahead of the early Lunar New Year and strengthen their negotiating position in annual contract talks, but the rate increases are having a limited effect. <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/asia-europe-ocean-rates-up-sharply-ahead-of-carriers-dec-1-price-hikes-5833484">The Dec. 1 freight-all-kinds (FAK) rate announcements did raise prices</a> but fell short of the $6,000/FEU being sought by some of the carriers. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="de339caa-b0e9-47c7-874d-64f306214b57"></dynamic-object></div>Markus Panhauser, CEO of the Germany and Switzerland units at DHL Global Forwarding, said cargo bookings were strong going into November and December. “Several blank sailings in December are fueling the space constraints, but the main reason is the high booking volume by all industry sectors,” Panhauser told the Journal of Commerce in a recent interview. “We see very strong bookings for January as well, therefore we believe the short-term market will see further rate increases.” An Asia-based European shipper told the Journal of Commerce Friday he expected rates to decline after January as demand from weak European economies began to falter. “Shipping lines are trying to keep rates up with blank sailings, but my expectation is that after the Lunar New Year there will be low to no recovery on this trade lane,” the source said. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="632ac940-941a-4a18-9f62-382571774a7b"></dynamic-object></div>Carriers on Asia-North Europe have announced 86,952 TEUs of blank sailings in December, or 8% of the available capacity, and 65,630 TEUs in January, or 5.7% of the available capacity, according to maritime intelligence firm eeSea. The blanked capacity is significantly less than the 16% capacity cut in November. But new deliveries and fewer blanks will see actual capacity deployed in December on the North Asia trade rise almost 25% to just over 1 million TEUs in January. On Asia-Mediterranean trades, the actual capacity in December will increase 30% to an expected 776,307 TEUs in January, eeSea data shows. Carriers on the trade have announced December cuts of 8.3% of capacity, or 64,292 TEUs, and 12.6% blanks in January totaling 94,819 TEUs. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Average spot market rates from Asia to North Europe and the Mediterranean have continued their upward trajectory into December, driven by ocean carrier rate increases on Dec. 1 and sustained demand ahead of an early Lunar New Year that starts on Jan. 29. Data from Drewry shows rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam as of Thursday shot up 19% compared with the previous week to $4,775 per FEU, with Shanghai-Genoa rates rising 22% to $5,496/FEU. Average rates assessed by Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, show Asia-North Europe rates edging up to $5,133/FEU and Asia-Mediterranean rates to $5,400/FEU as of Wednesday. Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen said while the market environment remained difficult to read because of the longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope, there was no sign of any slowdown in demand. “All the export trades out of Asia have been very strong,” he told reporters during a briefing this week. “The market is strong because of an early [Lunar] New Year and the change in the US presidency with some people pulling volume forward, so we expect volume to remain strong at least into the first quarter.” Habben Jansen said sailing around the Cape of Good Hope meant there was a lot more capacity required than carriers were able to provide. “We saw 11% growth of the fleet this year, but the TEU miles are up 18%, and that clearly illustrates why the idle fleet is so low and a lot of carriers are speeding up vessels,” he told reporters. The longer voyages around southern Africa to avoid the Red Sea are also influencing the Asia-Europe shipping patterns of global retailer Guess, according to Dennis Secor, interim CFO. “We have accelerated deliveries from our suppliers — not ordering more, just taking delivery sooner — and most of that inventory was in transit to our warehouses at the end of the third quarter,” Secor told analysts in an earnings call last week. Capitalizing on demand In this demand-driven environment, ocean carriers are moving to capitalize ahead of the early Lunar New Year and strengthen their negotiating position in annual contract talks, but the rate increases are having a limited effect. The Dec. 1 freight-all-kinds (FAK) rate announcements did raise prices but fell short of the $6,000/FEU being sought by some of the carriers. Markus Panhauser, CEO of the Germany and Switzerland units at DHL Global Forwarding, said cargo bookings were strong going into November and December. “Several blank sailings in December are fueling the space constraints, but the main reason is the high booking volume by all industry sectors,” Panhauser told the Journal of Commerce in a recent interview. “We see very strong bookings for January as well, therefore we believe the short-term market will see further rate increases.” An Asia-based European shipper told the Journal of Commerce Friday he expected rates to decline after January as demand from weak European economies began to falter. “Shipping lines are trying to keep rates up with blank sailings, but my expectation is that after the Lunar New Year there will be low to no recovery on this trade lane,” the source said. Carriers on Asia-North Europe have announced 86,952 TEUs of blank sailings in December, or 8% of the available capacity, and 65,630 TEUs in January, or 5.7% of the available capacity, according to maritime intelligence firm eeSea. The blanked capacity is significantly less than the 16% capacity cut in November. But new deliveries and fewer blanks will see actual capacity deployed in December on the North Asia trade rise almost 25% to just over 1 million TEUs in January. On Asia-Mediterranean trades, the actual capacity in December will increase 30% to an expected 776,307 TEUs in January, eeSea data shows. Carriers on the trade have announced December cuts of 8.3% of capacity, or 64,292 TEUs, and 12.6% blanks in January totaling 94,819 TEUs. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Forwarding

High demand leads to end-of-year surge in Asia-Europe ocean rates

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The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

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Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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Filling the Supply Chain Education Gap with LTL Education Courses

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