<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>Forget the fall, the peak US truck shipping season is under way now, trucking analysts say, with spot truckload rates elevated and contract rates still climbing. </p></div>

Forget the fall, the peak US truck shipping season is under way now, trucking analysts say, with spot truckload rates elevated and contract rates still climbing.

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<div><p>Strong and sustained demand, combined with widespread supply chain disruption, has advanced the US trucking industry’s traditional peak season by months, tamping down the seasonality normally associated with July and August, according to analysts interviewed by JOC.com. They expect both spot and contract truckload rates to remain strong through the end of the year, even if volumes moderate. </p><p>“We normally would see a truckload [rate] peak in October and November, but I think we’re seeing it now,” Dean Croke, principal analyst for DAT Freight &amp; Analytics, said in an interview Thursday. DAT’s US average seven-day spot dry van rate climbed...

Strong and sustained demand, combined with widespread supply chain disruption, has advanced the US trucking industry’s traditional peak season by months, tamping down the seasonality normally associated with July and August, according to analysts interviewed by JOC.com. They expect both spot and contract truckload rates to remain strong through the end of the year, even if volumes moderate. “We normally would see a truckload [rate] peak in October and November, but I think we’re seeing it now,” Dean Croke, principal analyst for DAT Freight & Analytics, said in an interview Thursday. DAT’s US average seven-day spot dry van rate climbed from $2.38 to $2.42 per mile last week, even though the load-per-truck ratio dropped from 6.0 to 5.6, meaning there were 5.6 available loads per truck. A market correction may be inevitable, but a turn in the truck pricing cycle is not imminent. Predictions that US transportation pricing would soon deflate have faltered on further economic growth and disruption ranging from port shutdowns overseas to plant closures in the US. “I don’t know that the [spot] market has recovered since the polar vortex” in February, said Croke. A wave of imports hitting US ports and disruption in key economic sectors, particularly the automotive industry, are keeping a lid on capacity and a floor beneath already elevated truck prices. “Disruption will continue and that will keep spot market strong,” said Avery Vise, vice president of trucking for FTR Transportation Intelligence. Any decline in spot pricing is likely to be muted, Vise said Thursday. In an interview, Vise noted that spot dry van volumes are currently 1.5 times higher than the five-year average in FTR’s spot volume index, which excludes 2020. Dry van volumes are about 30 percent above year-ago levels. “We’re performing better than seasonal expectations, but not remarkably so,” Vise said. A drop in flatbed loads accounts for a decline in total spot market volume. National spot rate averages do not always tell the full story. DAT’s US dry van average flattened in late July at $2.38 per mile before climbing $0.05 in the last week. Before the July 4 holiday, the average had been $2.45 per mile. Rates in some lanes, however, are being propelled upward at a faster clip by specific issues, namely port congestion and intermodal rail price increases and service problems. “When time at anchor eats up intermodal time, the only option is a truck,” Croke said. “It’s not so much the volume, it’s the urgency to move the freight that drives up the spot rate.” All-inclusive, shipper-paid dry van spot rates from Los Angeles to Chicago, for example, leaped by $0.31 per mile from June to July, rising to $3.21 per mile, according to a JOC analysis of data from DAT Freight & Analytics, LaneMaster, digital broker Loadsmart, and other third-party logistics providers. That increase in Los Angeles–Chicago rates followed a $0.19 per mile average rate hike in the busy import lane in June. On Aug. 12, the DAT average dry van rate from Ontario, California, to all points was $3.29 per mile, excluding fuel surcharges, compared with a $2.42 per mile national average. Contract truckload rates are climbing, too. In the last two weeks, DAT shipper contract “replacement” rates were up 6 percent compared with the two prior weeks, Croke said Thursday. DAT’s national contract rate rose $0.08 in July to $2.79 per mile, an $0.11 increase from May. “We’re not at the high point yet,” Croke said. With full truckload capacity tight, DAT has seen an increase in partial loads on its boards. “That’s why the LTL industry is on fire right now ,” he said. Large publicly owned less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers in the past month have reported average contractual rate increases ranging from 8 to 12 percent for the second quarter. Many LTL carriers are purging nontraditional and low-margin freight from their networks, however, putting more pressure back onto the truckload contract and spot markets. Choked freight pipelines Any decline in shipment volume or tonnage this summer does not reflect a decline in demand as much as an inability to move freight, analysts told JOC.com. “There are so many different forces acting on capacity in contradictory ways,” Vise said, citing automotive plant shutdowns as one example. “They free up capacity one week and lead to a dearth of capacity the next.” A fresh example of such disruption is unfolding in Smyrna, Tennessee, where Nissan will close an auto plant for two weeks starting Aug. 16 after a COVID-19 outbreak in Malaysia exacerbated the ongoing semiconductor shortage, according to the Associated Press . The plant employs 6,700 people and produces some of the automaker’s most popular models, including the Rogue SUV. Nissan had already closed its Smyrna plant for two weeks in June and has curtailed production of certain vehicles as it tries to allocate computer chips to its most popular models, according to automotive website TFLCar.com . And Nissan is not the only company still suffering from supply problems. The automotive sector, Vise said, accounts for about 20 percent of all truckload freight in the US. “I’m not sure there isn’t [truckload] capacity out there, but capacity is in the wrong place at the wrong time,” Vise said. “That’s going to continue at this point clearly into next year, and it’s going to have follow-on effects for the whole trucking industry.” For-hire truck utilization rates tracked by FTR are near 100 percent, much as they were at the height of the 2018 truckload capacity crisis, he said. “We maxed out utilization in 2018, but by the back half of that year and in early 2019, we were normalizing quite quickly,” Vise said. “We don’t see that happening this time. It’s not just the number of drivers needed, it’s who those drivers are, and where they are.” More than 99,000 new for-hire carriers have entered the industry in the past 12 months, but most of those are one-truck fleets, he said. Those are the types of fleets and truck drivers larger, higher-volume shippers historically have a hard time accessing, except through third-party intermediaries. Most of those carriers and drivers work with smaller shippers, and many may haul more seasonally or on a part-time basis, especially when spot rates are high enough that some of them may hit monthly revenue targets by midmonth. Predictions that spot rates are flattening may be correct, but the price plateau is high enough to leave shippers short of cash and breath. Truckstop.com said load volumes in its spot market network dropped 8 percent in the week that ended Aug. 6, but the number of shipments moved daily that week hit a high point of 989,000, far above the 400,000-load-per-day level Truckstop.com once considered “normal.” Flirting with disruption There’s no shortcut back to “normal,” seasonal market conditions, according to FTR and DAT. “I don’t see a stronger spot market this fall, but because of these different issues, I think we will see a much more muted decline” than in 2018 and 2019, Vise said. “We’ve hit a peak and I don’t think we’re going to see another surge, but we have too many disruptions on the demand side, and too many unusual things on the capacity side.” As Jeff Tucker, CEO of logistics provider Tucker Company Worldwide, put it in a webinar Monday, “There are a lot of shoes left to drop in the supply chain.” Some of those “shoes” are literal shipments of footwear and other consumer goods sitting offshore in container ships or stuck in a pile of boxes at a Midwest railyard. “These problems haven’t been resolved,” Tucker said. Shippers need to brace for more disruption and uncertainty this fall as the preholiday shipping season heats up, the US economy expands, and the spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant prolongs the pandemic. “We’re walking into a demand season,” said Mike Mellencamp, vice president of strategy and projects for New Jersey–based Tucker Co. Among Tucker Co.’s shipper customers, “there’s very little sentiment that this is going to get easier in the next three months,” Mellencamp said. “There are uncontrollable events that could really tip the scales and put pressure on capacity,” including hurricane season, he said. “We don’t think this is the time to bid [lanes and business] and try to pull back rates. Carriers aren’t ready for that.” Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@ihsmarkit.com and follow him on Twitter: @willbcassidy .

Truck brokers

Truckload

Peak season arrives early for US trucking

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>The move by the Chinese-Polish operator will help meet growing demand for wind and energy storage systems cargoes.</p></div>

The move by the Chinese-Polish operator will help meet growing demand for wind and energy storage systems cargoes.

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<div class="phx-topic"><p>Chinese-Polish multipurpose and heavy-lift vessel operator Chipolbrok is expanding its fleet after signing a shipbuilding deal with China's Taizhou Sanfu Ship Engineering group for six 60,800-deadweight metric ton (dwt) MPVs. </p><p>The deal also includes options for four similar vessels, Chipolbrok said in a statement Monday. The total order, including the options, will increase the carrier’s fleet by 25% to more than 40 ships. </p><p>The company’s financial investment in the newbuilds was not immediately available. </p><p>The carrier initially signed contracts for four vessels on Dec. 30 and followed that up with contracts signed with affiliate company Taizhou Kouan Shipbuilding on Monday for two additional ships plus the four options. </p><p>The ships will “further strengthen our capabilities in project, oversized and special cargo trades,” Chipolbrok said in the statement. </p><p>The first ship is due to be delivered in November 2027, with the remaining vessels scheduled to join the Chipolbrok fleet in 2028 and 2029.   </p><h3>Prior newbuild program almost over </h3><p>The vessels were ordered just as Chipolbrok completes its previous newbuilding program of eight 62,000-dwt multipurpose heavy-lift ships, also built by Taizhou Kouan Shipbuilding in China’s Jiangsu province. </p><p>The seventh ship of that order, <i>De An,</i> was delivered in June, while construction of <i>Kopernik,</i> the final ship in the series, started in November. </p><p>Chipolbrok said the latest ice-class vessels, designed with input from Shanghai Merchant Ship Design &amp; Research Institute, will each have three 200-ton capacity cranes that will be able to lift a maximum of 400 tons in tandem. </p><p>They will also feature a forward accommodation and bridge block to maximize the rear deck space of around 70,000 square feet and improve cargo handling efficiency. The vessels will have a specially strengthened rear deck that will enable the ships to carry heavier wind energy components, as well as a 135-foot cargo hold to accommodate longer project cargoes. </p><p>The ships will also have a capacity to handle 3,180 TEUs, making them suited to transporting containerized energy storage systems, battery packs and electrical charging equipment. Those goods now need to be carried as deck cargo under the latest International Maritime Dangerous Goods regulations that came into force on Jan. 1. </p><p>Chipolbrok’s latest orders also show the growing importance of wind farm components, which now account for more than 50% of the carrier’s cargo volumes. The carrier said new energy equipment, including battery energy storage systems, is also growing in importance. </p><p><i>Contact Keith Wallis at </i><a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com"><i>keithwallis@hotmail.com.</i></a></p></div>

Chinese-Polish multipurpose and heavy-lift vessel operator Chipolbrok is expanding its fleet after signing a shipbuilding deal with China's Taizhou Sanfu Ship Engineering group for six 60,800-deadweight metric ton (dwt) MPVs. The deal also includes options for four similar vessels, Chipolbrok said in a statement Monday. The total order, including the options, will increase the carrier’s fleet by 25% to more than 40 ships. The company’s financial investment in the newbuilds was not immediately available. The carrier initially signed contracts for four vessels on Dec. 30 and followed that up with contracts signed with affiliate company Taizhou Kouan Shipbuilding on Monday for two additional ships plus the four options. The ships will “further strengthen our capabilities in project, oversized and special cargo trades,” Chipolbrok said in the statement. The first ship is due to be delivered in November 2027, with the remaining vessels scheduled to join the Chipolbrok fleet in 2028 and 2029.   Prior newbuild program almost over The vessels were ordered just as Chipolbrok completes its previous newbuilding program of eight 62,000-dwt multipurpose heavy-lift ships, also built by Taizhou Kouan Shipbuilding in China’s Jiangsu province. The seventh ship of that order, De An, was delivered in June, while construction of Kopernik, the final ship in the series, started in November. Chipolbrok said the latest ice-class vessels, designed with input from Shanghai Merchant Ship Design & Research Institute, will each have three 200-ton capacity cranes that will be able to lift a maximum of 400 tons in tandem. They will also feature a forward accommodation and bridge block to maximize the rear deck space of around 70,000 square feet and improve cargo handling efficiency. The vessels will have a specially strengthened rear deck that will enable the ships to carry heavier wind energy components, as well as a 135-foot cargo hold to accommodate longer project cargoes. The ships will also have a capacity to handle 3,180 TEUs, making them suited to transporting containerized energy storage systems, battery packs and electrical charging equipment. Those goods now need to be carried as deck cargo under the latest International Maritime Dangerous Goods regulations that came into force on Jan. 1. Chipolbrok’s latest orders also show the growing importance of wind farm components, which now account for more than 50% of the carrier’s cargo volumes. The carrier said new energy equipment, including battery energy storage systems, is also growing in importance. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com.

Breakbulk carriers

Energy projects

Heavy-haul transport

Breakbulk News

Maritime

Chipolbrok scales up heavy-lift multipurpose fleet with new ship orders

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>Intermodal marketing companies have long been at a disadvantage because rail-owned containers lacked the real-time tracking and tracing capabilities that are standard among private fleets.</p></div>

Intermodal marketing companies have long been at a disadvantage because rail-owned containers lacked the real-time tracking and tracing capabilities that are standard among private fleets.

<div class="phx-topic"><p>A multiyear effort to install GPS devices on approximately 75,000 rail-owned intermodal containers shared among several North American Class I railroads has been completed, according to Union Pacific Railroad (UP), closing a visibility gap that gave private container owners a strategic advantage in negotiations with shippers. </p><p>UP owns and operates the container fleet, which also runs on the networks of Canadian National Railway, CSX Transportation, Norfolk Southern Railway and Mexico’s Ferromex. </p><p>“This is another meaningful step as we deliver the best customer experience possible,” Kenny Rocker, UP’s executive vice president of sales, said in a statement on Monday. “By combining GPS-enabled containers with real-time data and smarter visibility tools, we’re providing the transparency and reliability our customers depend on.” </p><p>The rail-owned containers are a critical resource for non-asset intermodal marketing companies (IMC), which compete directly for shipper freight with private container owners such as Hub Group, J.B. Hunt Transport Services and Schneider National. </p><p>IMCs have long been at a disadvantage because rail-owned containers lacked the real-time tracking and tracing capabilities that are standard among private fleets. By contrast, real-time visibility is now common across the US truckload sector. Closing that gap has taken on added importance as UP’s projections for truckload-to-rail conversions are a pillar of its <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/up-in-merger-filing-vows-to-convert-millions-of-loads-to-intermodal-annually-6138380">case before the US Surface Transportation Board</a> as it seeks approval of its proposed acquisition of Norfolk Southern. </p><p>Real-time location tracking of the rail-owned boxes will be available through the Blume Global platform and will support e-mail notifications, geofencing and application programming interface (API) connectivity.  </p><p>The move also introduces potential risk, however, as much of the freight moving in rail-owned containers already relies on Blume Global software; the logistics technology provider was the target of a cyberattack in 2022. </p><p><i>Contact Ari Ashe at </i><a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com"><i>ari.ashe@spglobal.com</i></a>.</p></div>

A multiyear effort to install GPS devices on approximately 75,000 rail-owned intermodal containers shared among several North American Class I railroads has been completed, according to Union Pacific Railroad (UP), closing a visibility gap that gave private container owners a strategic advantage in negotiations with shippers. UP owns and operates the container fleet, which also runs on the networks of Canadian National Railway, CSX Transportation, Norfolk Southern Railway and Mexico’s Ferromex. “This is another meaningful step as we deliver the best customer experience possible,” Kenny Rocker, UP’s executive vice president of sales, said in a statement on Monday. “By combining GPS-enabled containers with real-time data and smarter visibility tools, we’re providing the transparency and reliability our customers depend on.” The rail-owned containers are a critical resource for non-asset intermodal marketing companies (IMC), which compete directly for shipper freight with private container owners such as Hub Group, J.B. Hunt Transport Services and Schneider National. IMCs have long been at a disadvantage because rail-owned containers lacked the real-time tracking and tracing capabilities that are standard among private fleets. By contrast, real-time visibility is now common across the US truckload sector. Closing that gap has taken on added importance as UP’s projections for truckload-to-rail conversions are a pillar of its case before the US Surface Transportation Board as it seeks approval of its proposed acquisition of Norfolk Southern. Real-time location tracking of the rail-owned boxes will be available through the Blume Global platform and will support e-mail notifications, geofencing and application programming interface (API) connectivity. The move also introduces potential risk, however, as much of the freight moving in rail-owned containers already relies on Blume Global software; the logistics technology provider was the target of a cyberattack in 2022. Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Rail News

North-American rail

North American rail container fleet fully outfitted with GPS devices

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>With inflation increasing, consumer confidence declining and unemployment on the rise, US imports from Asia are not expected to see the typical pre-Lunar New Year surge in January and February.</p></div>

With inflation increasing, consumer confidence declining and unemployment on the rise, US imports from Asia are not expected to see the typical pre-Lunar New Year surge in January and February.

<div class="phx-topic"><p><i>The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook.</i> </p><p><b>The big picture:</b> Container gateways on the US West Coast in 2025 were able to hold onto market share gained in 2024 as importers frontloading seasonal merchandise from Asia due to tariff uncertainties took advantage of transit times that are at least two weeks shorter than East Coast routings. West Coast gateways remained relatively free from congestion throughout the year, and those conditions are likely to continue given the weak import volumes forecast for the first quarter of 2026. </p><div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6144851_0.1.jpg"></img></div><p><b>A look back:</b> Similar to the wider trans-Pacific market, US West Coast ports benefited from tariff-related frontloading in the first half of 2025, but that growth turned to double-digit percentage declines in the fall. Amid the roller-coaster demand movements, the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland and the Northwest Seaport Alliance of Seattle and Tacoma handled 59.2% of US imports from Asia through November, exactly the same share as in the first 11 months of 2024, according to PIERS, a <i>Journal of Commerce</i> sister product within S&amp;P Global.  </p><p>To handle the somewhat volatile swings in volumes — a record 1.2 million TEUs of laden imports crossed West Coast terminal docks in July, for example — port stakeholders continued to incorporate the lessons they learned during the COVID-19 pandemic. Improved shipment forecasts and information sharing among carriers, marine terminals, truckers, chassis providers, railroads and warehouses resulted in lower truck turn and container dwell times at the marine terminals and fluid operations at warehouses and inland rail terminals. </p><p><b>A look ahead:</b> Cargo volumes at West Coast ports in 2026 will likely be impacted by macroeconomic forces in the US. With inflation increasing, consumer confidence declining and unemployment on the rise, US imports from Asia are not expected to see the typical pre-Lunar New Year surge in January and February. And unless some clarity and predictability in the Trump administration’s tariff policies are forthcoming, retailers are likely to be conservative in ordering spring and summer merchandise, extending year-over-year declines in West Coast imports through the first half of 2026.  </p><div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="c328e2d6-c694-4af5-b0bb-86af8cec1ba4"></dynamic-object></div><p>Meanwhile, cargo owners, terminal operators and truckers in Southern California will be keeping a close eye on a lengthy bridge redecking project slated to begin in January. Located at the entry to Los Angeles harbor, the 63-year-old Vincent Thomas Bridge handles 53,000 vehicles a day, including about 3,400 heavy-duty trucks, according to the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans). Traffic disruptions are anticipated throughout the redecking project, which will require one-directional bridge closures through November followed by a full shutdown from November 2026 to March 2028. Although Caltrans has implemented an alternative route for truck and vehicular traffic and an information network with real-time updates on detours and delays, stakeholders remain concerned about roadway congestion potentially backing up to the terminals. </p><p><b>The next inflection:</b> If container lines return to the Suez Canal, East and Gulf coast ports could regain some of the market share they lost to the West Coast in the past two years. </p><p><i>Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at </i><a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com"><i>bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</i></a>.</p></div>

The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook. The big picture: Container gateways on the US West Coast in 2025 were able to hold onto market share gained in 2024 as importers frontloading seasonal merchandise from Asia due to tariff uncertainties took advantage of transit times that are at least two weeks shorter than East Coast routings. West Coast gateways remained relatively free from congestion throughout the year, and those conditions are likely to continue given the weak import volumes forecast for the first quarter of 2026. A look back: Similar to the wider trans-Pacific market, US West Coast ports benefited from tariff-related frontloading in the first half of 2025, but that growth turned to double-digit percentage declines in the fall. Amid the roller-coaster demand movements, the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland and the Northwest Seaport Alliance of Seattle and Tacoma handled 59.2% of US imports from Asia through November, exactly the same share as in the first 11 months of 2024, according to PIERS, a Journal of Commerce sister product within S&P Global. To handle the somewhat volatile swings in volumes — a record 1.2 million TEUs of laden imports crossed West Coast terminal docks in July, for example — port stakeholders continued to incorporate the lessons they learned during the COVID-19 pandemic. Improved shipment forecasts and information sharing among carriers, marine terminals, truckers, chassis providers, railroads and warehouses resulted in lower truck turn and container dwell times at the marine terminals and fluid operations at warehouses and inland rail terminals. A look ahead: Cargo volumes at West Coast ports in 2026 will likely be impacted by macroeconomic forces in the US. With inflation increasing, consumer confidence declining and unemployment on the rise, US imports from Asia are not expected to see the typical pre-Lunar New Year surge in January and February. And unless some clarity and predictability in the Trump administration’s tariff policies are forthcoming, retailers are likely to be conservative in ordering spring and summer merchandise, extending year-over-year declines in West Coast imports through the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, cargo owners, terminal operators and truckers in Southern California will be keeping a close eye on a lengthy bridge redecking project slated to begin in January. Located at the entry to Los Angeles harbor, the 63-year-old Vincent Thomas Bridge handles 53,000 vehicles a day, including about 3,400 heavy-duty trucks, according to the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans). Traffic disruptions are anticipated throughout the redecking project, which will require one-directional bridge closures through November followed by a full shutdown from November 2026 to March 2028. Although Caltrans has implemented an alternative route for truck and vehicular traffic and an information network with real-time updates on detours and delays, stakeholders remain concerned about roadway congestion potentially backing up to the terminals. The next inflection: If container lines return to the Suez Canal, East and Gulf coast ports could regain some of the market share they lost to the West Coast in the past two years. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .

Port News

Trans-Pacific

North American ports

Container Shipping News

Soft volumes to keep West Coast ports congestion-free in early 2026

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>Power generation cargoes gave the heavy-lift sector a welcome boost in 2025, and it’s a cargo stream that will not dry up anytime soon.</p></div>

Power generation cargoes gave the heavy-lift sector a welcome boost in 2025, and it’s a cargo stream that will not dry up anytime soon.

<div class="phx-topic"><p><i>The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook.</i> </p><p>Cargo volumes are stacking up nicely as the breakbulk and project sector sails into 2026, but are there enough ships to carry them? The short answer: It depends on the commodity. The <i>Journal of Commerce</i> projects fleet growth for heavy-lift (HL) capable vessels at an average annual rate of 4.1% though 2029, but that might not be enough for the projected boom in heavy-lift cargoes. </p><div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6144851_0.1.jpg"></img></div><p>After two decades of essentially flat energy demand, project cargo-hungry server farms are expected to boost US electricity consumption at a compound annual growth rate of more than 3% from 2025 to 2030, according to an October report from S&amp;P Global Energy. Driven by growth in renewable energy sources, particularly onshore wind and solar power, and demand from a variety of sources including data centers, electric vehicles and the industrial sector, global power generation is expected to increase by an average of 3.3% per year through 2030. </p><p>Power generation cargoes gave the heavy-lift sector a welcome boost in 2025. With lead times for transformer and generator orders in some cases stretching beyond project development timescales, this is a cargo stream that will not dry up anytime soon. </p><p>Two years into the generative AI revolution, the mismatch between data center power requirements and supply has reached a critical point. This has led to growing interest in thermal energy options as evolving policy reshapes the energy sector. Momentum continues for the nuclear industry, while gas turbine orders are at their highest levels in nearly 25 years, and coal unit retirement plans are being delayed. </p><p>One shipper of transformers into the US told the <i>Journal of Commerce</i> they had never seen a market like it. All the big manufacturers are effectively full through 2030 as new power plants are being built, while older facilities — some of which are over 40 years old in the US — replace machinery. </p><div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="517f1375-3744-4198-b50b-91d9eca08b4d"></dynamic-object></div><p>While the shipment of larger pieces is the domain of specialized multipurpose carriers, the smaller pieces needed to manufacture a turbine or generator have more options for carriage. Equally, modules needed for new technology plants — such as chip manufacturers — are significantly lighter than modules being shipped for, say, a gas liquefaction plant. This extra breakbulk demand gives shippers the option to shop around for transport options.  </p><h3>Metals and mining ‘on steroids’ </h3><p>Another project cargo-hungry sector is metals and mining, described by one shipper as currently “on steroids.” Copper is in particularly high demand due to its role in the green energy transition and for electric vehicle manufacturing. The International Energy Agency warned in December that there could be a global supply deficit of 30% by 2035 due to declining ore grades, rising capital costs and lengthy project development timelines despite increased investment in the sector.  </p><p>There are several copper projects in South America that are expanding and more in Southeast Asia and the US that are at the feasibility stage. If these projects are commissioned, then demand for mining equipment will rocket — a boon for roll-on/roll-off carriers best suited to carrying these cargoes.   </p><p>Meanwhile, simpler multipurpose vessels are projected to grow at just 0.5% per year over the same period. But these are the vessels that will compete with container carriers and bulkers, sectors in which overcapacity was already a problem as 2025 closed. When the Suez Canal route is deemed safe again, both fleets could see an effective capacity increase of up to 10%. </p><p><i>Contact Susan Oatway at </i><a href="mailto:susan.oatway@spglobal.com"><i>susan.oatway@spglobal.com</i></a>.</p></div>

The following is part of the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook. Cargo volumes are stacking up nicely as the breakbulk and project sector sails into 2026, but are there enough ships to carry them? The short answer: It depends on the commodity. The Journal of Commerce projects fleet growth for heavy-lift (HL) capable vessels at an average annual rate of 4.1% though 2029, but that might not be enough for the projected boom in heavy-lift cargoes. After two decades of essentially flat energy demand, project cargo-hungry server farms are expected to boost US electricity consumption at a compound annual growth rate of more than 3% from 2025 to 2030, according to an October report from S&P Global Energy. Driven by growth in renewable energy sources, particularly onshore wind and solar power, and demand from a variety of sources including data centers, electric vehicles and the industrial sector, global power generation is expected to increase by an average of 3.3% per year through 2030. Power generation cargoes gave the heavy-lift sector a welcome boost in 2025. With lead times for transformer and generator orders in some cases stretching beyond project development timescales, this is a cargo stream that will not dry up anytime soon. Two years into the generative AI revolution, the mismatch between data center power requirements and supply has reached a critical point. This has led to growing interest in thermal energy options as evolving policy reshapes the energy sector. Momentum continues for the nuclear industry, while gas turbine orders are at their highest levels in nearly 25 years, and coal unit retirement plans are being delayed. One shipper of transformers into the US told the Journal of Commerce they had never seen a market like it. All the big manufacturers are effectively full through 2030 as new power plants are being built, while older facilities — some of which are over 40 years old in the US — replace machinery. While the shipment of larger pieces is the domain of specialized multipurpose carriers, the smaller pieces needed to manufacture a turbine or generator have more options for carriage. Equally, modules needed for new technology plants — such as chip manufacturers — are significantly lighter than modules being shipped for, say, a gas liquefaction plant. This extra breakbulk demand gives shippers the option to shop around for transport options. Metals and mining ‘on steroids’ Another project cargo-hungry sector is metals and mining, described by one shipper as currently “on steroids.” Copper is in particularly high demand due to its role in the green energy transition and for electric vehicle manufacturing. The International Energy Agency warned in December that there could be a global supply deficit of 30% by 2035 due to declining ore grades, rising capital costs and lengthy project development timelines despite increased investment in the sector. There are several copper projects in South America that are expanding and more in Southeast Asia and the US that are at the feasibility stage. If these projects are commissioned, then demand for mining equipment will rocket — a boon for roll-on/roll-off carriers best suited to carrying these cargoes. Meanwhile, simpler multipurpose vessels are projected to grow at just 0.5% per year over the same period. But these are the vessels that will compete with container carriers and bulkers, sectors in which overcapacity was already a problem as 2025 closed. When the Suez Canal route is deemed safe again, both fleets could see an effective capacity increase of up to 10%. Contact Susan Oatway at susan.oatway@spglobal.com .

Ro/ro cargo

Project cargo

Energy-related transport, metals and mining to lift project cargo sector in 2026

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>Few blank sailings have been announced for January, and none this week, as shippers in Asia get their cargo on the water ahead of China’s Lunar New Year factory shutdown.</p></div>

Few blank sailings have been announced for January, and none this week, as shippers in Asia get their cargo on the water ahead of China’s Lunar New Year factory shutdown.

<div class="phx-topic"><p>The annual pre-Lunar New Year rush is underway on the Asia-North Europe ocean trade, with some market watchers reporting signs of frontloading on top of seasonal demand while others feel the volumes in January are within historical norms.</p><p>What is clear, however, is that carriers are injecting significant capacity into the trade lane this month while blanking very few sailings as shippers race to get their cargo on the water before factories across China close for up to three weeks. The Year of the Horse begins on Feb. 17.</p><p>Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, said capacity offered on Asia to North Europe was at an all-time high this week with no blank sailings. Data from Xeneta’s eeSea shows a record 1.15 million TEUs in capacity is being deployed this month on the Asia-North Europe trade lane, with blank sailings removing just 25,000 TEUs. In February, the planned capacity will drop to just over 1 million TEUs.</p><p>“Demand is solid and seasonally strong ... anything of top of that could be fueled by [market] uncertainty,” Sand told the <i>Journal of Commerce</i>.</p><p>Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis also highlighted a significant capacity increase, pointing to current weekly capacity of 421,825 TEUs being offered on Asia-North Europe, a 49% net increase compared with a 2015–19 pre-COVID-19 historical baseline.</p><div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="a63d21f3-de18-45d8-8acf-7aca6ea4f4c4"></dynamic-object></div><p>“This is a strong indication of a frontloading strategy where shippers are pushing massive volumes into the network much earlier than the historical figures suggest, likely a response to the current extended Asia-Europe transit times,” Sea-Intelligence wrote in the newsletter.</p><p>“By flooding the trade lane early, shippers aim to ensure that their European inventory is buffered before the planned Lunar New Year capacity withdrawal begins,” the analyst noted.</p><h3>Demand following seasonal patterns</h3><p>A spokesman for Hapag-Lloyd said demand on the eastbound trade routes from Asia to Europe was following seasonal patterns.</p><p>“We’re witnessing a normal peak season which started in December and is now ramping up towards Lunar New Year,” a spokesperson for Hapag-Lloyd told the <i>Journal of Commerce</i>. “We expect bookings to soften from end-January onwards as factories close.”</p><p>Michael Aldwell, executive vice president of sea logistics at Kuehne + Nagel, said most of the forwarder’s customers in Europe used a “just-in-time” approach to manage supply chains and stock levels, which was affecting the duration of peak shipping periods.</p><p>“[However], after two years of extended transit times, shippers are adjusting their plans accordingly, leading to a more stretched peak season,” Aldwell told the <i>Journal of Commerce</i>.</p><p>Rising spot rates are accompanying the strong pre-Lunar New Year demand, with all indexes showing steep increases since early October. According to Platts, a sister company of the <i>Journal of Commerce</i> within S&amp;P Global, Asia-North Europe rates of $2,700 per FEU this week are more than double the Oct. 3 price. Container Trades Statistics, in its latest available data (October), shows Asia-North Europe container volume growth of almost 8% over the first 10 months of 2025 as oscillating US tariffs on Beijing saw Chinese shippers redirecting cargo to European markets. </p><p><i>Contact Greg Knowler at </i><a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com"><i>greg.knowler@spglobal.com</i></a><i>.</i></p></div>

The annual pre-Lunar New Year rush is underway on the Asia-North Europe ocean trade, with some market watchers reporting signs of frontloading on top of seasonal demand while others feel the volumes in January are within historical norms. What is clear, however, is that carriers are injecting significant capacity into the trade lane this month while blanking very few sailings as shippers race to get their cargo on the water before factories across China close for up to three weeks. The Year of the Horse begins on Feb. 17. Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, said capacity offered on Asia to North Europe was at an all-time high this week with no blank sailings. Data from Xeneta’s eeSea shows a record 1.15 million TEUs in capacity is being deployed this month on the Asia-North Europe trade lane, with blank sailings removing just 25,000 TEUs. In February, the planned capacity will drop to just over 1 million TEUs. “Demand is solid and seasonally strong ... anything of top of that could be fueled by [market] uncertainty,” Sand told the Journal of Commerce. Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis also highlighted a significant capacity increase, pointing to current weekly capacity of 421,825 TEUs being offered on Asia-North Europe, a 49% net increase compared with a 2015–19 pre-COVID-19 historical baseline. “This is a strong indication of a frontloading strategy where shippers are pushing massive volumes into the network much earlier than the historical figures suggest, likely a response to the current extended Asia-Europe transit times,” Sea-Intelligence wrote in the newsletter. “By flooding the trade lane early, shippers aim to ensure that their European inventory is buffered before the planned Lunar New Year capacity withdrawal begins,” the analyst noted. Demand following seasonal patterns A spokesman for Hapag-Lloyd said demand on the eastbound trade routes from Asia to Europe was following seasonal patterns. “We’re witnessing a normal peak season which started in December and is now ramping up towards Lunar New Year,” a spokesperson for Hapag-Lloyd told the Journal of Commerce. “We expect bookings to soften from end-January onwards as factories close.” Michael Aldwell, executive vice president of sea logistics at Kuehne + Nagel, said most of the forwarder’s customers in Europe used a “just-in-time” approach to manage supply chains and stock levels, which was affecting the duration of peak shipping periods. “[However], after two years of extended transit times, shippers are adjusting their plans accordingly, leading to a more stretched peak season,” Aldwell told the Journal of Commerce. Rising spot rates are accompanying the strong pre-Lunar New Year demand, with all indexes showing steep increases since early October. According to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, Asia-North Europe rates of $2,700 per FEU this week are more than double the Oct. 3 price. Container Trades Statistics, in its latest available data (October), shows Asia-North Europe container volume growth of almost 8% over the first 10 months of 2025 as oscillating US tariffs on Beijing saw Chinese shippers redirecting cargo to European markets. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

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Asia-Europe ocean carriers add capacity as trade enters peak shipping period

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