<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The revised forecast, which covers the carrier’s financial year to March 31, 2025, is 13% higher than the $2.7 billion estimate it gave on July 31.</div>

The revised forecast, which covers the carrier’s financial year to March 31, 2025, is 13% higher than the $2.7 billion estimate it gave on July 31.

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<div>Ocean Network Express (ONE) has upgraded its full-year profit forecast to $3.1 billion, the carrier said Thursday, after its first-half result was buoyed by higher freight rates and cargo volumes due to the early peak season. The upgraded forecast, which covers ONE’s financial year to March 31, 2025, is 13% higher than the $2.7 billion estimate it gave on July 31. Still, the carrier said forecasting its full-year result remains challenging. “The state of affairs after the New Year [next January] is particularly difficult to foresee at the moment,” ONE said in a results presentation. It pointed out that while...

Ocean Network Express (ONE) has upgraded its full-year profit forecast to $3.1 billion, the carrier said Thursday, after its first-half result was buoyed by higher freight rates and cargo volumes due to the early peak season. The upgraded forecast, which covers ONE’s financial year to March 31, 2025, is 13% higher than the $2.7 billion estimate it gave on July 31. Still, the carrier said forecasting its full-year result remains challenging. “The state of affairs after the New Year [next January] is particularly difficult to foresee at the moment,” ONE said in a results presentation. It pointed out that while cargo volumes in the coming months are uncertain, “a significant number of new container vessels will be delivered in the second half of fiscal 2024.” British shipbroking house Clarksons has said container ships totaling 705,000 TEUs in capacity still have to be delivered this year, equivalent to 2.3% of the current global fleet, while more than 1.9 million TEUs are slated for delivery next year. ONE said its own order book, comprised of owned and long-term chartered vessels, stood at 52 ships at the end of September, while its on-the-water fleet consisted of 244 ships totaling just over 1.9 million TEUs. Indicating a weaker second half of its fiscal year, ONE forecast a $317 million net profit for the Oct. 1 to March 31 period, down from July’s forecast of $500 million. Strong fiscal second quarter Singapore-headquartered ONE said its interim net profit from April 1 to Sept. 30 climbed to $2.8 billion, up from $700 million in the same period of 2023, and included net profit of $2 billion in its fiscal second quarter alone. Fiscal first-half revenues climbed 38% to $10.1 billion, up from $7.3 billion. Highlighting its strong second quarter, ONE said its cargo movements from Asia to North America in July and August increased 18% year over year, with a 6.4% increase in Asia to Europe volumes in July. Demonstrating higher rates, ONE data showed its freight rate index averaged 195 on Asia-North America eastbound trades in the second quarter, while the Asia-Europe westbound index averaged 293. That compared with index levels of 109 on eastbound North America trades and 116 on westbound European services in the fiscal second quarter last year. “Robust domestic consumption continued in the United States, and strong cargo movement continued due to customers advancing shipments in anticipation of supply chain disruptions,” the carrier said. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

Container lines

Container Shipping News

Maritime

ONE upgrades full-year profit forecast to $3 billion after strong early peak season

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"> A prolonged war would ultimately result in a shift from supply constraint to demand destruction for oil and natural gas coming from the Middle East, according to S&amp;P Global Energy expert Amy Groeschel.</div>

A prolonged war would ultimately result in a shift from supply constraint to demand destruction for oil and natural gas coming from the Middle East, according to S&P Global Energy expert Amy Groeschel.

<div class="phx-topic">New Orleans — How long it takes to resolve the war in the Middle East will ultimately decide how deep the compounding effects of the disruption to oil and natural gas production, refining, and the delivery of refined products will cut into global economies, Amy Groeschel, head of energy spending at S&amp;P Global Energy, said Wednesday. Groeschel was speaking at the Journal of Commerce’s Breakbulk and Project Cargo Conference 2026. A prolonged conflict would ultimately result in a switch from supply constraint to demand destruction for oil and natural gas coming from the Middle East, she said. “The longer the fields are not flowing, the longer and more expensive it will be to restart production,” Groeschel said, noting, too, the capital costs of repairing refining infrastructure at facilities damaged in the war. “The longer the conflict goes, and the more that affects access to fuel transiting (the Strait of Hormuz), the more it likely incentivizes oil and gas exploration elsewhere and incentivizes shifts toward other energy sources,” she added. Groeschel, a specialist in upstream energy analysis, described a “widespread destruction of refining in the Middle East” that would likely benefit engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) companies as well as the logistics providers that serve them when it comes time for costly repairs. But she said the scale of the outages and what OPEC countries produce, with some 16 million barrels of crude and refined products trapped inside the Strait of Hormuz each day, is “not replaceable in a short amount of time.” <h3>Venezuela not an option to replace Gulf oil supplies </h3>Groeschel noted that upstream spending on renewable energy was already on pace to outstrip oil and gas spending before the Middle East conflict broke out, with S&amp;P Global Energy forecasting peak demand for oil and gas by 2032. That trend might accelerate in the wake of the supply constraint, with countries and energy producers now looking at alternatives earlier than they might have. “It was an eventuality that clean tech spending was going to overtake oil and gas,” she said. “The infrastructure needed to build offshore wind would be larger. But the fastest growing sector is more modular solar, much of that coming from China.” Asked whether Venezuela could offset the oil supplies constrained by the Middle East conflict, Groeschel downplayed those expectations. “Venezuela produces heavy crude that has to be upgraded to even be transported by ship,” she said. “Rebuilding of those (upgrade) facilities will take time and massive investment, and a real commitment of government to produce stable conditions that let producers invest.” She added that even in the most optimistic forecast, Venezuela would be able to produce 3 million barrels of crude per day by 2030. Other potential oil producing locations that could contribute to offset the lost supply from the Persian Gulf include Western Canada, the US, Argentina and Africa. S&amp;P Global is the parent company of the Journal of Commerce. Contact Eric Johnson at <a href="mailto:eric.johnson@spglobal.com">eric.johnson@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

New Orleans — How long it takes to resolve the war in the Middle East will ultimately decide how deep the compounding effects of the disruption to oil and natural gas production, refining, and the delivery of refined products will cut into global economies, Amy Groeschel, head of energy spending at S&P Global Energy, said Wednesday. Groeschel was speaking at the Journal of Commerce’s Breakbulk and Project Cargo Conference 2026. A prolonged conflict would ultimately result in a switch from supply constraint to demand destruction for oil and natural gas coming from the Middle East, she said. “The longer the fields are not flowing, the longer and more expensive it will be to restart production,” Groeschel said, noting, too, the capital costs of repairing refining infrastructure at facilities damaged in the war. “The longer the conflict goes, and the more that affects access to fuel transiting (the Strait of Hormuz), the more it likely incentivizes oil and gas exploration elsewhere and incentivizes shifts toward other energy sources,” she added. Groeschel, a specialist in upstream energy analysis, described a “widespread destruction of refining in the Middle East” that would likely benefit engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) companies as well as the logistics providers that serve them when it comes time for costly repairs. But she said the scale of the outages and what OPEC countries produce, with some 16 million barrels of crude and refined products trapped inside the Strait of Hormuz each day, is “not replaceable in a short amount of time.” Venezuela not an option to replace Gulf oil supplies Groeschel noted that upstream spending on renewable energy was already on pace to outstrip oil and gas spending before the Middle East conflict broke out, with S&P Global Energy forecasting peak demand for oil and gas by 2032. That trend might accelerate in the wake of the supply constraint, with countries and energy producers now looking at alternatives earlier than they might have. “It was an eventuality that clean tech spending was going to overtake oil and gas,” she said. “The infrastructure needed to build offshore wind would be larger. But the fastest growing sector is more modular solar, much of that coming from China.” Asked whether Venezuela could offset the oil supplies constrained by the Middle East conflict, Groeschel downplayed those expectations. “Venezuela produces heavy crude that has to be upgraded to even be transported by ship,” she said. “Rebuilding of those (upgrade) facilities will take time and massive investment, and a real commitment of government to produce stable conditions that let producers invest.” She added that even in the most optimistic forecast, Venezuela would be able to produce 3 million barrels of crude per day by 2030. Other potential oil producing locations that could contribute to offset the lost supply from the Persian Gulf include Western Canada, the US, Argentina and Africa. S&P Global is the parent company of the Journal of Commerce. Contact Eric Johnson at eric.johnson@spglobal.com .

Energy projects

Breakbulk News

Breakbulk26: Loss of Persian Gulf oil supplies difficult to replace quickly

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Tariff refunds might be available for many breakbulk companies, but they still need to prepare for the possibility of new levies, conference attendees were told.</div>

Tariff refunds might be available for many breakbulk companies, but they still need to prepare for the possibility of new levies, conference attendees were told.

<div class="phx-topic">New Orleans — Project cargo and breakbulk shippers need to shift their thinking on tariffs and trade compliance from “strategic weapons” to “strategic and tactical” tools, according to sector specialists speaking at the Journal of Commerce’s Breakbulk and Project Cargo Conference 2026. Mance Adams, logistics manager and duty drawback project manager at oilfield services company SLB, said many companies treat tariffs and trade compliance as a secondary consideration. “I've talked to supply chain procurement, and they've come to me a year after a contract is negotiated, saying, ‘can you help me calculate the tariff on this?’ So, they had never calculated a true landed cost or total cost of ownership,” Adams said Tuesday. “When I told them that they have been paying 28%, they almost laughed me out of the office,” he added. Instead, Adams urged companies in the sector to consider trade compliance and the handling of tariffs and other import and export costs as something strategic and tactical. Elizabeth Lowe, Venable LLP partner and co-chair of the International Trade and Logistics Group, warned that companies should be “bracing” for further US tariffs this year. ”We don’t really know what exactly it’s going to look like when it comes out, but I do think folks should be bracing for there being pretty broad tariffs that go back into effect in July,” she said. Lowe said that those tariffs will likely be challenged because of a rushed process, but stakeholders should start looking at mitigation options now. “It will be pushed through. Whether it is done correctly or not is another question,” she said. After tariffs implemented by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-supreme-court-rules-against-trump-in-critical-ieepa-tariff-case-6173568">ruled illegal by the US Supreme Court in February</a>, shippers are now bracing for so-called Section 122 tariffs of 10% through July and the possibility of new tariffs resulting from ongoing Section 301 investigations. <h3>Tariff refund window now open </h3>The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has launched Phase 1of the IEEPA refund process, allowing importers of record and licensed customs brokers to file for refunds of tariffs paid between April 2025 and the Supreme Court ruling. These include so-called “reciprocal” tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on most goods from nearly all US trading partners, a 40% additional duty on most imports from Brazil, and secondary tariff orders designed to penalize countries trading with nations like Russia, Iran or Venezuela. ”It covers a lot,” said Lowe. “Make sure you are getting it all. Don’t limit your refund just to the reciprocal tariffs.” She also advised that if project cargo and breakbulk companies are successful in their refund claim, they might find customers knocking on their door for their slice of the refund. “Figuring out how to deal with that,” is something that logistics specialists in the sector need to keep in mind and be aware of, Lowe said. ”Customs is not going to come and tell you you’ve got to reimburse your customer,” she said. “Ultimately, that’s a commercial discussion.” Contact Carly Fields on <a href="mailto:carly.fields@spglobal.com">carly.fields@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

New Orleans — Project cargo and breakbulk shippers need to shift their thinking on tariffs and trade compliance from “strategic weapons” to “strategic and tactical” tools, according to sector specialists speaking at the Journal of Commerce’s Breakbulk and Project Cargo Conference 2026. Mance Adams, logistics manager and duty drawback project manager at oilfield services company SLB, said many companies treat tariffs and trade compliance as a secondary consideration. “I've talked to supply chain procurement, and they've come to me a year after a contract is negotiated, saying, ‘can you help me calculate the tariff on this?’ So, they had never calculated a true landed cost or total cost of ownership,” Adams said Tuesday. “When I told them that they have been paying 28%, they almost laughed me out of the office,” he added. Instead, Adams urged companies in the sector to consider trade compliance and the handling of tariffs and other import and export costs as something strategic and tactical. Elizabeth Lowe, Venable LLP partner and co-chair of the International Trade and Logistics Group, warned that companies should be “bracing” for further US tariffs this year. ”We don’t really know what exactly it’s going to look like when it comes out, but I do think folks should be bracing for there being pretty broad tariffs that go back into effect in July,” she said. Lowe said that those tariffs will likely be challenged because of a rushed process, but stakeholders should start looking at mitigation options now. “It will be pushed through. Whether it is done correctly or not is another question,” she said. After tariffs implemented by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were ruled illegal by the US Supreme Court in February , shippers are now bracing for so-called Section 122 tariffs of 10% through July and the possibility of new tariffs resulting from ongoing Section 301 investigations. Tariff refund window now open The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has launched Phase 1of the IEEPA refund process, allowing importers of record and licensed customs brokers to file for refunds of tariffs paid between April 2025 and the Supreme Court ruling. These include so-called “reciprocal” tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on most goods from nearly all US trading partners, a 40% additional duty on most imports from Brazil, and secondary tariff orders designed to penalize countries trading with nations like Russia, Iran or Venezuela. ”It covers a lot,” said Lowe. “Make sure you are getting it all. Don’t limit your refund just to the reciprocal tariffs.” She also advised that if project cargo and breakbulk companies are successful in their refund claim, they might find customers knocking on their door for their slice of the refund. “Figuring out how to deal with that,” is something that logistics specialists in the sector need to keep in mind and be aware of, Lowe said. ”Customs is not going to come and tell you you’ve got to reimburse your customer,” she said. “Ultimately, that’s a commercial discussion.” Contact Carly Fields on carly.fields@spglobal.com .

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

Project cargo

Breakbulk26: Shippers urged to pivot from typical view of tariffs, trade compliance

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">An endless string of post-COVID disruptions has caused breakbulk and project cargo carriers to become more agile while breaking down old barriers with shippers.</div>

An endless string of post-COVID disruptions has caused breakbulk and project cargo carriers to become more agile while breaking down old barriers with shippers.

<div class="phx-topic">New Orleans — Early engagement, transparency and open communication between shippers and carriers have become necessities for managing fleets in a global trade environment in which chaos has become a constant, a panel of breakbulk and project cargo carriers told attendees at the Journal of Commerce’s Breakbulk and Project Cargo Conference 2026. “We have learned that uncertainty will remain,” said Carsten Wendt, an executive with roll-on/roll-off carrier Wallenius Wilhelmsen Ocean AS. Wendt said Tuesday that before COVID, the shipping landscape was somewhat predictable in terms of schedule. “Since COVID, we are facing constant fires everywhere in the world,” he said. “And as soon as you put one little fire out, there’s another one starting somewhere.” Between the pandemic and the ongoing war in the Middle East, Wendt cited a succession of global trade disruptions that have included the obstruction of the Suez Canal by a container ship, and then Houthi militants in Yemen targeting vessels in the Red Sea. The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore and the drought-inflicted low water levels along the Panama Canal added to the post-COVID chaos. “Even if now one crisis (is) over, we have to be prepared that there’s another one around the corner,” Wendt said. <h3>’Team effort’ with shippers </h3>The disruptions have underlined the importance of “open, frequent communication,” said Ulrich Ulrichs, CEO of German multipurpose vessel/heavy-lift (MPV-HL) operator BBC Chartering. Ulrichs said the industry has become accustomed to expecting the unexpected, and that carriers in particular have learned to react quickly in a crisis, as was the case when the war with Iran began. “I think we were much faster to react to the situation than maybe to other crises,” he said. Anders Hyrup, US vice president of sales and projects for JSI Alliance, which operates super-heavy carriers Jumbo and SAL-Intermarine and is based in Germany, said whereas before COVID there was more of an “us-versus-them” mentality between carriers and shippers, that dividing line has since blurred as carriers have worked to improve relationships with shippers. “It’s more of a team effort, and there’s a common understanding that there are issues for both parties,” he said. “Construction will be delayed, production will be delayed, ships will be delayed, and you need to prepare for that.” With the war in the Middle East upending the fuel supplies MPVs rely on, Michael Mørland, Atlantic region project cargo director for Norwegian MPV operator G2 Ocean, said bunker fuel price fluctuations and availability have necessitated advance planning for voyages and fuel. “We probably carry bigger stocks of bunkers than what we traditionally would, and that allows us (the) agility to go to the areas that are more affordable,” he said. Contact Autumn Cafiero Giusti at <a href="mailto:autumn@autumngiusti.com">autumn@autumngiusti.com</a>. </div>

New Orleans — Early engagement, transparency and open communication between shippers and carriers have become necessities for managing fleets in a global trade environment in which chaos has become a constant, a panel of breakbulk and project cargo carriers told attendees at the Journal of Commerce’s Breakbulk and Project Cargo Conference 2026. “We have learned that uncertainty will remain,” said Carsten Wendt, an executive with roll-on/roll-off carrier Wallenius Wilhelmsen Ocean AS. Wendt said Tuesday that before COVID, the shipping landscape was somewhat predictable in terms of schedule. “Since COVID, we are facing constant fires everywhere in the world,” he said. “And as soon as you put one little fire out, there’s another one starting somewhere.” Between the pandemic and the ongoing war in the Middle East, Wendt cited a succession of global trade disruptions that have included the obstruction of the Suez Canal by a container ship, and then Houthi militants in Yemen targeting vessels in the Red Sea. The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore and the drought-inflicted low water levels along the Panama Canal added to the post-COVID chaos. “Even if now one crisis (is) over, we have to be prepared that there’s another one around the corner,” Wendt said. ’Team effort’ with shippers The disruptions have underlined the importance of “open, frequent communication,” said Ulrich Ulrichs, CEO of German multipurpose vessel/heavy-lift (MPV-HL) operator BBC Chartering. Ulrichs said the industry has become accustomed to expecting the unexpected, and that carriers in particular have learned to react quickly in a crisis, as was the case when the war with Iran began. “I think we were much faster to react to the situation than maybe to other crises,” he said. Anders Hyrup, US vice president of sales and projects for JSI Alliance, which operates super-heavy carriers Jumbo and SAL-Intermarine and is based in Germany, said whereas before COVID there was more of an “us-versus-them” mentality between carriers and shippers, that dividing line has since blurred as carriers have worked to improve relationships with shippers. “It’s more of a team effort, and there’s a common understanding that there are issues for both parties,” he said. “Construction will be delayed, production will be delayed, ships will be delayed, and you need to prepare for that.” With the war in the Middle East upending the fuel supplies MPVs rely on, Michael Mørland, Atlantic region project cargo director for Norwegian MPV operator G2 Ocean, said bunker fuel price fluctuations and availability have necessitated advance planning for voyages and fuel. “We probably carry bigger stocks of bunkers than what we traditionally would, and that allows us (the) agility to go to the areas that are more affordable,” he said. Contact Autumn Cafiero Giusti at autumn@autumngiusti.com .

Breakbulk carriers

Breakbulk26: Repeated global crises force carriers to adopt strategies for uncertainty

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The varied strategies employed by ocean carriers to manage war-driven volatility in bunker fuel prices are delaying the completion of some 2026–27 service contract negotiations as the key May 1 date looms.</div>

The varied strategies employed by ocean carriers to manage war-driven volatility in bunker fuel prices are delaying the completion of some 2026–27 service contract negotiations as the key May 1 date looms.

<div class="phx-topic">Small to midsize customers say ocean carriers’ handling of bunker fuel surcharges is complicating the timely completion of their 2026–27 trans-Pacific service contracts due to difficulty in comparing how the liners approach the surcharges. While most annual service contracts on the eastbound trans-Pacific typically start May 1, the carrier customers say any delay could force them to ship under costlier spot/freight-all-kinds (FAK) rates until the annual service agreements are signed. Customers, both beneficial cargo owners (BCOs) and forwarders, say that some carriers want them to agree to open-ended emergency bunker surcharges with no exit clause stipulating when the surcharges will end. “There is no real indicator as to when this is going to go away and how it is going to go away,” a forwarder who did not want to be identified told the Journal of Commerce. Bunker surcharges have become a hot-button issue since the war in the Middle East sent oil prices soaring in early March. The traditional bunker adjustment factor (BAF) found in most service contracts is being changed by some carriers from a quarterly to a monthly reset. More recently, some carriers are also levying emergency fuel surcharges on top of the BAFs. A carrier executive said that while some customers may feel carriers are attempting to force them to accept emergency surcharges or are unilaterally changing the BAF to a monthly reset, he believes there is a growing willingness by liners and their customers to reach a mutually acceptable remedy. “There is a mounting effort by most parties to meet in the middle on the level of surcharges,” the executive said. <h3>Emergency bunker surcharges could increase </h3>In his April newsletter, Jon Monroe, who serves as an adviser to forwarders, said emergency bunker surcharges (EBS) are likely to remain a key wildcard in the trans-Pac for months to come, and they could add significantly to shippers’ costs. “EBS levels are expected to fluctuate significantly,” Monroe said. “In the near term, the EBS could range from $200 to $600 per FEU, with the potential for spikes beyond that if fuel prices surge further. As a result, total landed freight costs may be far less predictable than the base contract rates suggest.” Bunker fuel prices essentially doubled in key global hubs at the start of the war, and although prices have eased a bit in some locations, they are still well above where they were before the conflict. And with no end in sight to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz that has effectively blocked the daily transit of 20% of the world’s oil supplies, the specter of <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/bunker-fuel-shortages-loom-after-us-counter-blocks-strait-of-hormuz-6204678">bunker fuel shortages loom</a>, something that would add further upward pressure on prices. When bunker fuel prices are stable, the traditional BAF quarterly reset works fine for both carriers and their customers, said Rachel Shames, vice president of pricing and procurement at the forwarder CV International. But with some carriers now adjusting bunker prices monthly while adding seemingly open-ended emergency bunker surcharges to the equation, importers and forwarders are at an obvious disadvantage, Shames said “If the surcharge goes up, it should be able to come down when bunkers come down. It’s gotten very confusing,” she said. The more frequent changes in BAFs and EBSs now make it more difficult for forwarders to price their services to their clients in a timely manner, said Ben Coleman, president of forwarder Teampower Logistics. “You just have to accept that [carriers] will adjust their rates downward if bunker costs come down,” Coleman said. “Our main concern is that we want to remain competitive.” In the past, there was always a way to navigate through surcharges, said John Pace, senior manager for global logistics at Revelyst, an importer of outdoor gear. “You would circumvent those carriers that were penalizing you with higher costs,” Pace said. “But in this particular case, it seems to be widespread among most carriers. There doesn’t seem to be a strategy that allows you to navigate through this.” <h3>Different carriers, different approaches </h3>A trade director at a consumer products company that imports about 6,000 containers per year said his service contract talks are bogged down by the different approaches carriers are taking to surcharges and how they impact base rates. For example, the source said one major carrier is asking for a $300 emergency fuel surcharge on top of the regular BAF that applies on base rates. But the carrier has not made clear under what circumstances it will remove the fuel surcharge or how it was calculated, he said. Meanwhile, a second major liner is passing along fuel expenses on its carrier haulage moves through an “inland fuel surcharge,” the source said. The carrier provides a formula, albeit one he says is complicated, about how it is calculating the new fee. The second carrier is also presenting shippers with a choice on how their BAF will be calculated, either on a trailing three-month or one-month basis. So, shippers themselves can take the bet on whether they want to ride out fuel volatility for a longer period or benefit from a quick dip in oil prices. “It’s gotten really complicated with all these extra fuel costs,” the trade director said. “We were in line to get a good base rate reduction, but now that’s all hidden by the surcharges.” A national importer of home furnishings who is in his third round of service contract negotiations said importers must be diligent and persistent in talks with carriers to protect against unwanted surcharges. “We pushed back on the emergency bunker surcharges, and we did so successfully,” the source said. <h3>Contract extensions possible </h3>With less than two weeks left before most 2025–26 service contracts end and most 2026–27 contracts take effect, some importers are asking carriers to extend their current contracts at least until mid-May while negotiations on new deals continue. But that’s something that must be done on a carrier-by-carrier basis because not all liners are willing to extend the existing contracts, forwarders say. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="56cdc0fc-22a5-4ef9-9e3e-11f96f369c70"></dynamic-object></div>If a carrier refuses to extend the existing contract temporarily, importers will have to pay the current spot rate, which was $2,700 per FEU to the West Coast and $3,700 per FEU as of April 21, according to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Most midsize importers are currently paying in the range of $1,700 to $1,850 to the West Coast per their 2025–26 service contracts. “[Some] carriers are extending [existing contract] rates until mid-May,” Monroe said. An industry consultant who formerly served in logistics roles at big-box retailers said most of the larger retailers have finalized their 2026–27 service contracts or are ready to do so. However, smaller importers say they are meeting resistance from some carriers for escape clauses from emergency fuel surcharges. “The smaller ones, they don’t have any leverage,” the consultant said. “They’re at the mercy of the carriers.” Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com ">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>.  Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Small to midsize customers say ocean carriers’ handling of bunker fuel surcharges is complicating the timely completion of their 2026–27 trans-Pacific service contracts due to difficulty in comparing how the liners approach the surcharges. While most annual service contracts on the eastbound trans-Pacific typically start May 1, the carrier customers say any delay could force them to ship under costlier spot/freight-all-kinds (FAK) rates until the annual service agreements are signed. Customers, both beneficial cargo owners (BCOs) and forwarders, say that some carriers want them to agree to open-ended emergency bunker surcharges with no exit clause stipulating when the surcharges will end. “There is no real indicator as to when this is going to go away and how it is going to go away,” a forwarder who did not want to be identified told the Journal of Commerce. Bunker surcharges have become a hot-button issue since the war in the Middle East sent oil prices soaring in early March. The traditional bunker adjustment factor (BAF) found in most service contracts is being changed by some carriers from a quarterly to a monthly reset. More recently, some carriers are also levying emergency fuel surcharges on top of the BAFs. A carrier executive said that while some customers may feel carriers are attempting to force them to accept emergency surcharges or are unilaterally changing the BAF to a monthly reset, he believes there is a growing willingness by liners and their customers to reach a mutually acceptable remedy. “There is a mounting effort by most parties to meet in the middle on the level of surcharges,” the executive said. Emergency bunker surcharges could increase In his April newsletter, Jon Monroe, who serves as an adviser to forwarders, said emergency bunker surcharges (EBS) are likely to remain a key wildcard in the trans-Pac for months to come, and they could add significantly to shippers’ costs. “EBS levels are expected to fluctuate significantly,” Monroe said. “In the near term, the EBS could range from $200 to $600 per FEU, with the potential for spikes beyond that if fuel prices surge further. As a result, total landed freight costs may be far less predictable than the base contract rates suggest.” Bunker fuel prices essentially doubled in key global hubs at the start of the war, and although prices have eased a bit in some locations, they are still well above where they were before the conflict. And with no end in sight to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz that has effectively blocked the daily transit of 20% of the world’s oil supplies, the specter of bunker fuel shortages loom , something that would add further upward pressure on prices. When bunker fuel prices are stable, the traditional BAF quarterly reset works fine for both carriers and their customers, said Rachel Shames, vice president of pricing and procurement at the forwarder CV International. But with some carriers now adjusting bunker prices monthly while adding seemingly open-ended emergency bunker surcharges to the equation, importers and forwarders are at an obvious disadvantage, Shames said “If the surcharge goes up, it should be able to come down when bunkers come down. It’s gotten very confusing,” she said. The more frequent changes in BAFs and EBSs now make it more difficult for forwarders to price their services to their clients in a timely manner, said Ben Coleman, president of forwarder Teampower Logistics. “You just have to accept that [carriers] will adjust their rates downward if bunker costs come down,” Coleman said. “Our main concern is that we want to remain competitive.” In the past, there was always a way to navigate through surcharges, said John Pace, senior manager for global logistics at Revelyst, an importer of outdoor gear. “You would circumvent those carriers that were penalizing you with higher costs,” Pace said. “But in this particular case, it seems to be widespread among most carriers. There doesn’t seem to be a strategy that allows you to navigate through this.” Different carriers, different approaches A trade director at a consumer products company that imports about 6,000 containers per year said his service contract talks are bogged down by the different approaches carriers are taking to surcharges and how they impact base rates. For example, the source said one major carrier is asking for a $300 emergency fuel surcharge on top of the regular BAF that applies on base rates. But the carrier has not made clear under what circumstances it will remove the fuel surcharge or how it was calculated, he said. Meanwhile, a second major liner is passing along fuel expenses on its carrier haulage moves through an “inland fuel surcharge,” the source said. The carrier provides a formula, albeit one he says is complicated, about how it is calculating the new fee. The second carrier is also presenting shippers with a choice on how their BAF will be calculated, either on a trailing three-month or one-month basis. So, shippers themselves can take the bet on whether they want to ride out fuel volatility for a longer period or benefit from a quick dip in oil prices. “It’s gotten really complicated with all these extra fuel costs,” the trade director said. “We were in line to get a good base rate reduction, but now that’s all hidden by the surcharges.” A national importer of home furnishings who is in his third round of service contract negotiations said importers must be diligent and persistent in talks with carriers to protect against unwanted surcharges. “We pushed back on the emergency bunker surcharges, and we did so successfully,” the source said. Contract extensions possible With less than two weeks left before most 2025–26 service contracts end and most 2026–27 contracts take effect, some importers are asking carriers to extend their current contracts at least until mid-May while negotiations on new deals continue. But that’s something that must be done on a carrier-by-carrier basis because not all liners are willing to extend the existing contracts, forwarders say. If a carrier refuses to extend the existing contract temporarily, importers will have to pay the current spot rate, which was $2,700 per FEU to the West Coast and $3,700 per FEU as of April 21, according to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Most midsize importers are currently paying in the range of $1,700 to $1,850 to the West Coast per their 2025–26 service contracts. “[Some] carriers are extending [existing contract] rates until mid-May,” Monroe said. An industry consultant who formerly served in logistics roles at big-box retailers said most of the larger retailers have finalized their 2026–27 service contracts or are ready to do so. However, smaller importers say they are meeting resistance from some carriers for escape clauses from emergency fuel surcharges. “The smaller ones, they don’t have any leverage,” the consultant said. “They’re at the mercy of the carriers.” Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .  Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Forwarding

Trans-Pacific

Carriers’ handling of fuel surcharges agitates small, midsize trans-Pac shippers

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Forwarders are juggling a steady stream of distractions while balancing a workforce to meet ever-evolving hot-button topics, conference attendees were told.</div>

Forwarders are juggling a steady stream of distractions while balancing a workforce to meet ever-evolving hot-button topics, conference attendees were told.

<div class="phx-topic">New Orleans — “Buckets of risks” are keeping project cargo stakeholders awake at night, according to panelists at the Journal of Commerce’s Breakbulk and Project Cargo Conference 2026. Luke Mace, senior vice president at global freight forwarder GEODIS Project Logistics, told conference participants Tuesday he counted three buckets of risk: people, established risks and newer disruptions. “No matter what we discuss today, the biggest risk to your organization will always be people. Let's not forget that through everything else,” he said. “The second bucket is the more established risks, the ones that we’ve learned through decades of experience.” Mace said forwarders create tools to help measure what they believe “could” happen on any given project to identify what risks they can take. “And that could be anything from foreign exchange losses to compliance issues and equipment availability,” he said. But it is the third category of “newer disruptions” that is really upending project cargo and breakbulk logistics today. “Right now, that is the Middle East conflict, but that’s just the most recent,” Mace said. “You have had everything from the Baltimore bridge to Ukraine to COVID to union strikes ... there are so many things around that are not about moving cargo.” Guillermina del Pino, head of project logistics/Americas at shipper Siemens Energy, told Breakbulk26 that strategies are being adjusted every day. “I’ve been doing this for 27 years and today you would probably look at the next two to three years as a long-term strategy because we don’t know what will happen in 10 years,” she said. An upside of this volatility is that project cargo shippers are now working more closely with contract managers and legal sales within their companies, del Pino added. <h3>Priorities keep shifting </h3>Mace said managing project cargo logistics today has become a matter of “balancing priorities.” “Every couple of years there’s a new industry trend,” he said. “Today it’s AI. Before, it was sustainability. Before that, cyber security. Before that, gender diversity. These are all equally important topics.” Mace said that project forwarders invest heavily in these areas, and that investment has to be maintained when the industry moves onto the next topic. “You pivot now to putting more resources into dealing with the current conflicts, and you just keep adding more and more people to your organization,” he said, adding that customers still demand cheap deals from their forwarders, despite them carrying “crazy overheads.” “Sometimes I think it becomes a bit of a distraction, because I tend to spend 90% of my time talking about things that have nothing to do with delivering cargo,” said Mace. “We've become lawyers and finance directors. We’ve become everything, not only delivering cargo.” Contact Carly Fields at <a href="mailto:carly.fields@spglobal.com">carly.fields@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

New Orleans — “Buckets of risks” are keeping project cargo stakeholders awake at night, according to panelists at the Journal of Commerce’s Breakbulk and Project Cargo Conference 2026. Luke Mace, senior vice president at global freight forwarder GEODIS Project Logistics, told conference participants Tuesday he counted three buckets of risk: people, established risks and newer disruptions. “No matter what we discuss today, the biggest risk to your organization will always be people. Let's not forget that through everything else,” he said. “The second bucket is the more established risks, the ones that we’ve learned through decades of experience.” Mace said forwarders create tools to help measure what they believe “could” happen on any given project to identify what risks they can take. “And that could be anything from foreign exchange losses to compliance issues and equipment availability,” he said. But it is the third category of “newer disruptions” that is really upending project cargo and breakbulk logistics today. “Right now, that is the Middle East conflict, but that’s just the most recent,” Mace said. “You have had everything from the Baltimore bridge to Ukraine to COVID to union strikes ... there are so many things around that are not about moving cargo.” Guillermina del Pino, head of project logistics/Americas at shipper Siemens Energy, told Breakbulk26 that strategies are being adjusted every day. “I’ve been doing this for 27 years and today you would probably look at the next two to three years as a long-term strategy because we don’t know what will happen in 10 years,” she said. An upside of this volatility is that project cargo shippers are now working more closely with contract managers and legal sales within their companies, del Pino added. Priorities keep shifting Mace said managing project cargo logistics today has become a matter of “balancing priorities.” “Every couple of years there’s a new industry trend,” he said. “Today it’s AI. Before, it was sustainability. Before that, cyber security. Before that, gender diversity. These are all equally important topics.” Mace said that project forwarders invest heavily in these areas, and that investment has to be maintained when the industry moves onto the next topic. “You pivot now to putting more resources into dealing with the current conflicts, and you just keep adding more and more people to your organization,” he said, adding that customers still demand cheap deals from their forwarders, despite them carrying “crazy overheads.” “Sometimes I think it becomes a bit of a distraction, because I tend to spend 90% of my time talking about things that have nothing to do with delivering cargo,” said Mace. “We've become lawyers and finance directors. We’ve become everything, not only delivering cargo.” Contact Carly Fields at carly.fields@spglobal.com .

Heavy-haul transport

Breakbulk26: Risk ‘buckets’ disrupting project cargo logistics priorities

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