<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">World oil prices are going up again, just when everyone had prophesied they'd fall. Traders'</div>

World oil prices are going up again, just when everyone had prophesied they'd fall. Traders'

<div>World oil prices are going up again, just when everyone had prophesied they'd fall.Traders' new worry is that civil war in Yemen might cut off its exports of 350,000 barrels daily of Arabian crude oil.That concern took the benchmark crude price above $16 a barrel last week, extending a surprise rally that began a month ago.Oil still hasn't retraced all of 1993's recession-led slide from values at around $20. But it is up from $13 where it began 1994. And forecasts of $10 oil are - as yet - unfulfilled.Suddenly, it seems that a "fear premium" has been restored to...

World oil prices are going up again, just when everyone had prophesied they'd fall. Traders' new worry is that civil war in Yemen might cut off its exports of 350,000 barrels daily of Arabian crude oil.That concern took the benchmark crude price above $16 a barrel last week, extending a surprise rally that began a month ago. Oil still hasn't retraced all of 1993's recession-led slide from values at around $20. But it is up from $13 where it began 1994. And forecasts of $10 oil are - as yet - unfulfilled. Suddenly, it seems that a "fear premium" has been restored to the cost of energy. A year ago, said Mike Barry, an analyst for Energy Market Consultants, futures pits might have ignored a prospect that a tiny producer like Yemen could be shut off. "The psychology has turned on its head," Mr. Barry said. "We are now in a balanced market." Various explanations are put forward. Traders no longer seems to think that the United Nations will quickly ease or lift its gulf war embargo on Iraqi oil exports. Saudi Arabia has also dropped hints that it won't raise its output above a preferred ceiling of 8 million barrels daily until prices are firmer. Western oil company executives believe that Saudi Arabia would like a price of $18 to $20 a barrel. Meanwhile a cold northern winter may have drained excess Western stocks of oil. And a reviving global economy is firing up consumption of petroleum. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that 1.4 million barrels were drawn down from the industrial nations' stocks in the January-March quarter. The IEA, the West's oil monitoring agency, also says that world oil demand will rise 800,000 barrels daily to 68 million this year - whereas 1993 saw the first decline for a decade. Even so, industry officials can be found to suggest that the oil prices may turn volatile again soon. They point to a strong seasonal rise in exports of Russian Urals crude that may weigh on the market. Data from port sources suggested that Urals exports from Black Sea terminals rebounded by about 50 percent in April as the winter ended. Meanwhile, demand for Middle East oil will escalate, said David Simon, chief executive of British Petroleum Co.. The Saudis "have got the spare capacity. No-one else has. They are the chaps who have the capacity to control the market." Riyadh officials won't say what sort of price they really want, except that it should meet their revenue needs but not go so high as to render oil uncompetitive.

OIL PRICES RESUME UPWARD CLIMB ON FEARS YEMEN MAY STOP EXPORTS

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Transport unions have mobilized members in Ireland, the UK, France, Germany and Italy with the average price of diesel in the EU up 33% since the start of the war in the Middle East.</div>

Transport unions have mobilized members in Ireland, the UK, France, Germany and Italy with the average price of diesel in the EU up 33% since the start of the war in the Middle East.

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<div class="phx-topic">Truckers across Europe have been taking to the streets in protest over soaring fuel prices, with the industry squeezed between rising operating costs and war-related inflation that risks dampening consumer demand. Transport unions have mobilized truckers in Ireland, the UK, France, Germany and Italy, with the average price of diesel in the European Union reaching €2.169 ($2.56) per litre, up 33% since the war in the Middle East started, according to the most recent data from the International Road Transport Union (IRU). Paolo Montrone, senior vice president and head of global trades at Kuehne + Nagel, said many of the truckers were small companies that are heavily exposed to rising fuel prices and any weakening demand. “The margins of these truck operators are very thin, so when there is a big spike in cost, clearly the livelihood of many small operators is threatened,” Montrone told the Journal of Commerce. “The capability and the time spent to absorb one of their biggest operating costs is very small.” The IRU warned that the 2026 volume growth forecast now looks unlikely because of the war, saying the road transport sector was now facing “a more fragmented, cost-intensive and uncertain operating environment.” Diesel prices are on the rise amid threatened shortages of fuel. With the Strait of Hormuz blockaded by both Iran and the US, some 20% of world’s daily supply of oil has been unable to move from the Persian Gulf region. <h3>Truckers demand relief </h3>With fuel comprising up to 35% of the operating expenses of European road hauliers, transport unions are pushing back against the fast-rising prices. Italian truckers are planning a nationwide strike from April 20-25 in protest over fuel prices that are above €2 per litre, with “limited cost recognition by clients,” according to labor union Trasportiunita, which has called for a shutdown of road transport activities. Ireland’s fuel supply network was plunged into chaos last week when protests by truckers and farmers blocked access to oil supplies and the port of Galway, causing massive traffic jams across the country. While the government has cut fuel taxes, there are fears the simmering protests could resume unless prices start to decline. Truckers and farmers in Northern Ireland held traffic-disrupting slow-moving protests this week amid growing calls for the UK government to cut fuel taxes. Fuel price protests have also been reported in Germany where haulage association BGL said diesel costs increased 28% in March compared to the previous month, raising operating costs for trucks by around €1,200 ($1,415) per vehicle per month. The German government has agreed to cut the energy tax on diesel and petrol by €17c per liter for two months, while designing a relief package for businesses and holding gas stations to only one price increase per day. Industry groups are demanding the government instead apply a “diesel price brake.” The Organization of European Road Transport Operators (OTRE) held a series of protests in France in late March and early April. While the protests have ended for now, OTRE has warned that companies are on the brink of bankruptcy and that the government’s current relief measures are insufficient. France is giving small-to-medium enterprises a €20c per liter fuel subsidy for April, part of a €50 million aid package for the road transport sector. <h3>Weakening economic indicators </h3>The fast-rising energy costs are being accompanied by weakening economic indicators across Europe and the UK. The European Central Bank GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been revised down by 0.3 of a percentage point to 0.9% and by 0.1 of a percentage point to 1.4% for 2027 because of the Middle East war. Inflation is expected to rise to 2.6% in 2026, up from the 2.2% forecast made in December. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) this week downgraded the UK’s 2026 GDP by half a percentage point, the largest downgrade among the world’s advanced economies. Average diesel prices in the UK are up by more than 30% since late February. Another indicator of economic challenges facing Europe is the eurozone purchasing manager’s index (PMI) compiled by S&amp;P Global, parent company of the Journal of Commerce. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, said March’s PMI indicated that the eurozone economy has already been hit hard by the war in the Middle East. “The encouraging signs of growth seen earlier in the year have been eradicated thanks to surging energy prices, choked supply chains, financial market volatility and a renewed downturn in demand,” Williamson said in a sobering analysis of the March PMI results. “The accompanying surge in prices raises the unwelcome specter of stagflation, or worse, in the near-term,” he added. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Truckers across Europe have been taking to the streets in protest over soaring fuel prices, with the industry squeezed between rising operating costs and war-related inflation that risks dampening consumer demand. Transport unions have mobilized truckers in Ireland, the UK, France, Germany and Italy, with the average price of diesel in the European Union reaching €2.169 ($2.56) per litre, up 33% since the war in the Middle East started, according to the most recent data from the International Road Transport Union (IRU). Paolo Montrone, senior vice president and head of global trades at Kuehne + Nagel, said many of the truckers were small companies that are heavily exposed to rising fuel prices and any weakening demand. “The margins of these truck operators are very thin, so when there is a big spike in cost, clearly the livelihood of many small operators is threatened,” Montrone told the Journal of Commerce. “The capability and the time spent to absorb one of their biggest operating costs is very small.” The IRU warned that the 2026 volume growth forecast now looks unlikely because of the war, saying the road transport sector was now facing “a more fragmented, cost-intensive and uncertain operating environment.” Diesel prices are on the rise amid threatened shortages of fuel. With the Strait of Hormuz blockaded by both Iran and the US, some 20% of world’s daily supply of oil has been unable to move from the Persian Gulf region. Truckers demand relief With fuel comprising up to 35% of the operating expenses of European road hauliers, transport unions are pushing back against the fast-rising prices. Italian truckers are planning a nationwide strike from April 20-25 in protest over fuel prices that are above €2 per litre, with “limited cost recognition by clients,” according to labor union Trasportiunita, which has called for a shutdown of road transport activities. Ireland’s fuel supply network was plunged into chaos last week when protests by truckers and farmers blocked access to oil supplies and the port of Galway, causing massive traffic jams across the country. While the government has cut fuel taxes, there are fears the simmering protests could resume unless prices start to decline. Truckers and farmers in Northern Ireland held traffic-disrupting slow-moving protests this week amid growing calls for the UK government to cut fuel taxes. Fuel price protests have also been reported in Germany where haulage association BGL said diesel costs increased 28% in March compared to the previous month, raising operating costs for trucks by around €1,200 ($1,415) per vehicle per month. The German government has agreed to cut the energy tax on diesel and petrol by €17c per liter for two months, while designing a relief package for businesses and holding gas stations to only one price increase per day. Industry groups are demanding the government instead apply a “diesel price brake.” The Organization of European Road Transport Operators (OTRE) held a series of protests in France in late March and early April. While the protests have ended for now, OTRE has warned that companies are on the brink of bankruptcy and that the government’s current relief measures are insufficient. France is giving small-to-medium enterprises a €20c per liter fuel subsidy for April, part of a €50 million aid package for the road transport sector. Weakening economic indicators The fast-rising energy costs are being accompanied by weakening economic indicators across Europe and the UK. The European Central Bank GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been revised down by 0.3 of a percentage point to 0.9% and by 0.1 of a percentage point to 1.4% for 2027 because of the Middle East war. Inflation is expected to rise to 2.6% in 2026, up from the 2.2% forecast made in December. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) this week downgraded the UK’s 2026 GDP by half a percentage point, the largest downgrade among the world’s advanced economies. Average diesel prices in the UK are up by more than 30% since late February. Another indicator of economic challenges facing Europe is the eurozone purchasing manager’s index (PMI) compiled by S&P Global, parent company of the Journal of Commerce. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said March’s PMI indicated that the eurozone economy has already been hit hard by the war in the Middle East. “The encouraging signs of growth seen earlier in the year have been eradicated thanks to surging energy prices, choked supply chains, financial market volatility and a renewed downturn in demand,” Williamson said in a sobering analysis of the March PMI results. “The accompanying surge in prices raises the unwelcome specter of stagflation, or worse, in the near-term,” he added. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

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Surging fuel prices drive protesting European truckers into the streets

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Several leading indexes and data sources show trucking rates rising across modes, including truckload and LTL, driven by fuel costs and tighter capacity. </div>

Several leading indexes and data sources show trucking rates rising across modes, including truckload and LTL, driven by fuel costs and tighter capacity.

<div class="phx-topic">The cost of trucking in the US is rising, no matter who’s doing the math. Data from industry and government indexes such as the Cass Freight Index, the TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index and the US Producer Price Index (PPI) all show higher trucking costs gained traction in the first quarter, particularly as fuel costs soared in March. The three-year decline in freight demand may still be with us, but not the accompanying “rate recession.” Price increases are most evident in the truckload spot market but are being felt in contract rates and less-than-truckload (LTL) and intermodal rail rates, too. The pricing data indicates that first-quarter rate hikes were more than a sign of short-term disruption caused by winter storms, signaling that shippers should brace for even higher costs. Shipper-paid truckload spot rates in March reached levels not seen since 2022, according to Journal of Commerce research released last week. Those spot rates rose 17 cents from February to a weighted average of $2.73 per mile on lanes longer than 250 miles. The unweighted national average on lanes greater than 250 miles rose 18 cents between February and March to $2.96 per mile, up 27.2% year over year, according to an analysis of data from Cargo Chief, DAT Freight &amp; Analytics, Loadsmart, and other sources. A 32% war-driven surge in <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/diesel-shock-puts-floor-under-trucking-rates-as-demand-shows-some-life-6192894">retail diesel costs</a> from February to March drove the gains in pricing. The average US retail diesel price jumped by $1.20 to $4.92 per gallon in March from the prior month, according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. As of Monday, the US average diesel price at the pump was $5.61 per gallon, up more than $2, or 56.7%, from a year ago, according to the EIA. <h3>Ramped-up rates </h3>Even without the fuel impact, truckload rates are higher than a year ago. The Journal of Commerce Intermodal Savings Index, which analyzes 120 modally competitive lanes in the US, shows that truckload contract rates, excluding fuel, were up 4.4% year over year in March. That is consistent with what two shippers, a big box retailer and an automotive shipper told the Journal of Commerce in discussing their recently negotiated truckload rates that were up in the low-to-mid-single digits compared with prior contracts. The shippers, who asked not to be identified, said motor carriers are more aggressive in pushing up rates than in prior cycles. Other industry data supports those claims and the Journal of Commerce analysis. The truckload PPI, released Tuesday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, rose 4.3% year over year to 177.8 in March, its first annualized increase since February 2025. The PPI covers a broad range of “selling” prices, including spot and contract rates paid by shippers, and includes fuel surcharges. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="c3e4f5b0-0670-419f-9a5a-7147f7e87cdf"></dynamic-object></div>Drilling into more specific data, truckload linehaul cost per shipment rose 10.2% in the first quarter from the previous quarter, according to the TD Cowen/AFS index, released Tuesday. The TD Cowen/AFS truckload rate per mile index is expected to reach 10.1% in the second quarter, its highest level in three years, up from 9% in the first quarter. “Broadly speaking, we are seeing upward rate pressure,” said Andy Dyer, CEO of AFS Logistics, a logistics provider managing $11 billion in freight spend. That pressure “is almost exclusively driven by supply-side dynamics,” Dyer told the Journal of Commerce. “There is no significant uptick in demand and no reason to think current conditions will produce a change in the near future.” The Cass Freight Index, released Monday, showed total shipments declined 4.5% in March from a year ago, but the average shipment cost rose 4.2% during the same period, another sign a supply-side recovery is happening without an underlying economic driver. “Tightness in dry van truckload [TL] conditions is starting to radiate to other markets, so far mainly reefer and flatbed TL, but eventually this tightness will drive demand in LTL and intermodal as well,” Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst at ACT Research, said. <h3>Crossing modal lines </h3>That freight or demand shift has already begun to occur, according to intermodal marketing companies (IMCs) and shippers. One non-asset-based IMC told the Journal of Commerce that its volume last month was double that of March 2025. A large Midwest-based shipper who did not want to be identified said it has also seen an increase in tender rejections and decrease in on-time performance from intermodal partners. “All of our intermodal providers tell us that it’s a driver availability issue,” the shipper said. As spot rates soar, more truck drivers that would typically handle intermodal drayage loads are likely to pursue higher-priced freight. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="8afcfdff-15ff-4ec3-8c50-af1aba47062e"></dynamic-object></div>LTL rates remain elevated as well, despite low shipment volumes. The LTL PPI rose 1.8% from February to March and was up 7.2% year over year. AFS Freight’s Dyer attributed the gain in part to fuel surcharges but also to pricing discipline by LTL carriers. “Pricing discipline has become more pervasive and durable than it ever was previously,” Dyer said in an interview. And shippers confronting truckload and parcel price shocks are transferring more freight to LTL carriers, he said. The TD Cowen/AFS LTL rate per pound index is expected to climb to 68.4% in the second quarter, a new high. Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>.Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The cost of trucking in the US is rising, no matter who’s doing the math. Data from industry and government indexes such as the Cass Freight Index, the TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index and the US Producer Price Index (PPI) all show higher trucking costs gained traction in the first quarter, particularly as fuel costs soared in March. The three-year decline in freight demand may still be with us, but not the accompanying “rate recession.” Price increases are most evident in the truckload spot market but are being felt in contract rates and less-than-truckload (LTL) and intermodal rail rates, too. The pricing data indicates that first-quarter rate hikes were more than a sign of short-term disruption caused by winter storms, signaling that shippers should brace for even higher costs. Shipper-paid truckload spot rates in March reached levels not seen since 2022, according to Journal of Commerce research released last week. Those spot rates rose 17 cents from February to a weighted average of $2.73 per mile on lanes longer than 250 miles. The unweighted national average on lanes greater than 250 miles rose 18 cents between February and March to $2.96 per mile, up 27.2% year over year, according to an analysis of data from Cargo Chief, DAT Freight & Analytics, Loadsmart, and other sources. A 32% war-driven surge in retail diesel costs from February to March drove the gains in pricing. The average US retail diesel price jumped by $1.20 to $4.92 per gallon in March from the prior month, according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. As of Monday, the US average diesel price at the pump was $5.61 per gallon, up more than $2, or 56.7%, from a year ago, according to the EIA. Ramped-up rates Even without the fuel impact, truckload rates are higher than a year ago. The Journal of Commerce Intermodal Savings Index, which analyzes 120 modally competitive lanes in the US, shows that truckload contract rates, excluding fuel, were up 4.4% year over year in March. That is consistent with what two shippers, a big box retailer and an automotive shipper told the Journal of Commerce in discussing their recently negotiated truckload rates that were up in the low-to-mid-single digits compared with prior contracts. The shippers, who asked not to be identified, said motor carriers are more aggressive in pushing up rates than in prior cycles. Other industry data supports those claims and the Journal of Commerce analysis. The truckload PPI, released Tuesday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, rose 4.3% year over year to 177.8 in March, its first annualized increase since February 2025. The PPI covers a broad range of “selling” prices, including spot and contract rates paid by shippers, and includes fuel surcharges. Drilling into more specific data, truckload linehaul cost per shipment rose 10.2% in the first quarter from the previous quarter, according to the TD Cowen/AFS index, released Tuesday. The TD Cowen/AFS truckload rate per mile index is expected to reach 10.1% in the second quarter, its highest level in three years, up from 9% in the first quarter. “Broadly speaking, we are seeing upward rate pressure,” said Andy Dyer, CEO of AFS Logistics, a logistics provider managing $11 billion in freight spend. That pressure “is almost exclusively driven by supply-side dynamics,” Dyer told the Journal of Commerce. “There is no significant uptick in demand and no reason to think current conditions will produce a change in the near future.” The Cass Freight Index, released Monday, showed total shipments declined 4.5% in March from a year ago, but the average shipment cost rose 4.2% during the same period, another sign a supply-side recovery is happening without an underlying economic driver. “Tightness in dry van truckload [TL] conditions is starting to radiate to other markets, so far mainly reefer and flatbed TL, but eventually this tightness will drive demand in LTL and intermodal as well,” Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst at ACT Research, said. Crossing modal lines That freight or demand shift has already begun to occur, according to intermodal marketing companies (IMCs) and shippers. One non-asset-based IMC told the Journal of Commerce that its volume last month was double that of March 2025. A large Midwest-based shipper who did not want to be identified said it has also seen an increase in tender rejections and decrease in on-time performance from intermodal partners. “All of our intermodal providers tell us that it’s a driver availability issue,” the shipper said. As spot rates soar, more truck drivers that would typically handle intermodal drayage loads are likely to pursue higher-priced freight. LTL rates remain elevated as well, despite low shipment volumes. The LTL PPI rose 1.8% from February to March and was up 7.2% year over year. AFS Freight’s Dyer attributed the gain in part to fuel surcharges but also to pricing discipline by LTL carriers. “Pricing discipline has become more pervasive and durable than it ever was previously,” Dyer said in an interview. And shippers confronting truckload and parcel price shocks are transferring more freight to LTL carriers, he said. The TD Cowen/AFS LTL rate per pound index is expected to climb to 68.4% in the second quarter, a new high. Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Truckload

Broad increase in US truck pricing seen gaining steam

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">CMA CGM and MSC have repurposed some of their vessels for feeder and shuttle activity while they await the opportunity for safe passage out of the war zone, sources say.</div>

CMA CGM and MSC have repurposed some of their vessels for feeder and shuttle activity while they await the opportunity for safe passage out of the war zone, sources say.

<div class="phx-topic">As efforts to secure the safe passage of container ships trapped in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz face increasing uncertainty, affected liners have established contingency plans to keep their stranded vessels in operation as long as it’s feasible, according to industry sources with knowledge of the matter. Among the top liners, CMA CGM and Mediterranean Shipping Co. have the most container ships stuck inside Hormuz — 13 and 15 vessels, respectively, available data shows. Sources say the French carrier has temporarily positioned five of its ships into container shuttle/feeder operations between ports north of the 100-mile-long strait, including Doha in Qatar, Jebel Ali in the United Arab Emirates, Dammam in Saudi Arabia, and ports in Kuwait and Bahrain. MSC has also repurposed some of its ships unable to exit Hormuz for regional shuttle activity, the sources said. South of Hormuz, Khor Fakkan and Fujairah in the UAE and Sohar in Oman remain the focal alternative ports for carriers handling trades into the Persian Gulf. Khor Fakkan continues to battle significant congestion issues, with vessel waits stretching to a week in most cases, except for carrier calls seeking to discharge only UAE loads, the sources said. At the same time, the latest operational updates do not suggest any serious harbor-choking problems and/or cargo evacuation delays at Fujairah and Sohar. CMA CGM is now offering weekly calls out of West India (Mundra/Hazira/Nhava Sheva) for connections into Fujairah and Sohar by downgrading its BIGEX (India-Red Sea) network from a two-string operation into a single loop. A 21-day round-trip voyage involves three 2,500-TEU ships. Hapag-Lloyd has begun operating ad-hoc sailings out of Nhava Sheva into Fujairah, with cargo bookings for Jebel Ali and Abu Dhabi handled by road or so-called land bridge options. <h3>Transshipment boom in India </h3>Meanwhile, the Middle East supply chain chaos is proving to be a heavy blow for Indian exporters already reeling under multiple demand headwinds. According to data obtained by the Journal of Commerce from port sources, Indian containerized cargo movements to the Persian Gulf are down by almost 80% from the normal pattern on the trade lane. The UAE is the second-largest trading partner for India. While Indian export flows struggle, March port data points to significant additional transshipment activity at major Indian ports as carriers rerouted vessels away from the war zone. Nhava Sheva handled about 121,000 TEUs of container relays, up from 35,000 TEUs in February, whereas Mundra’s transshipments hit a new high of 220,000 TEUs last month, approximately 50,000 TEUs more than normal. As a result, some fresh congestion has emerged at those busy ports. Contact Bency Mathew at <a href="mailto:bencyvmathew@gmail.com">bencyvmathew@gmail.com</a>. </div>

As efforts to secure the safe passage of container ships trapped in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz face increasing uncertainty, affected liners have established contingency plans to keep their stranded vessels in operation as long as it’s feasible, according to industry sources with knowledge of the matter. Among the top liners, CMA CGM and Mediterranean Shipping Co. have the most container ships stuck inside Hormuz — 13 and 15 vessels, respectively, available data shows. Sources say the French carrier has temporarily positioned five of its ships into container shuttle/feeder operations between ports north of the 100-mile-long strait, including Doha in Qatar, Jebel Ali in the United Arab Emirates, Dammam in Saudi Arabia, and ports in Kuwait and Bahrain. MSC has also repurposed some of its ships unable to exit Hormuz for regional shuttle activity, the sources said. South of Hormuz, Khor Fakkan and Fujairah in the UAE and Sohar in Oman remain the focal alternative ports for carriers handling trades into the Persian Gulf. Khor Fakkan continues to battle significant congestion issues, with vessel waits stretching to a week in most cases, except for carrier calls seeking to discharge only UAE loads, the sources said. At the same time, the latest operational updates do not suggest any serious harbor-choking problems and/or cargo evacuation delays at Fujairah and Sohar. CMA CGM is now offering weekly calls out of West India (Mundra/Hazira/Nhava Sheva) for connections into Fujairah and Sohar by downgrading its BIGEX (India-Red Sea) network from a two-string operation into a single loop. A 21-day round-trip voyage involves three 2,500-TEU ships. Hapag-Lloyd has begun operating ad-hoc sailings out of Nhava Sheva into Fujairah, with cargo bookings for Jebel Ali and Abu Dhabi handled by road or so-called land bridge options. Transshipment boom in India Meanwhile, the Middle East supply chain chaos is proving to be a heavy blow for Indian exporters already reeling under multiple demand headwinds. According to data obtained by the Journal of Commerce from port sources, Indian containerized cargo movements to the Persian Gulf are down by almost 80% from the normal pattern on the trade lane. The UAE is the second-largest trading partner for India. While Indian export flows struggle, March port data points to significant additional transshipment activity at major Indian ports as carriers rerouted vessels away from the war zone. Nhava Sheva handled about 121,000 TEUs of container relays, up from 35,000 TEUs in February, whereas Mundra’s transshipments hit a new high of 220,000 TEUs last month, approximately 50,000 TEUs more than normal. As a result, some fresh congestion has emerged at those busy ports. Contact Bency Mathew at bencyvmathew@gmail.com .

Port News

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Maritime

Carriers redeploy Hormuz-stranded ships for intra-Gulf shuttle operations

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Decisions that before the conflict would have taken months are now being made in days, speeding up road transits, freeing urgently needed capacity and easing customs procedures, industry executives told a webinar. </div>

Decisions that before the conflict would have taken months are now being made in days, speeding up road transits, freeing urgently needed capacity and easing customs procedures, industry executives told a webinar.

<div class="phx-topic">The huge volume of diverted Middle East-bound ocean cargo that overwhelmed land transport systems in the region has accelerated collaboration between countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) that will outlast the war, regional industry leaders say. Decisions involving cross-border trade that before the conflict would have taken months are now being decided in days, speeding up road transits, freeing urgently needed capacity and easing customs procedures, a webinar organized by global road transport association IRU heard Wednesday. “What we have witnessed so far is that it’s not six countries in the region responding independently to a crisis,” said Achraf Ellili, CEO of Flow Progressive Logistics in Saudi Arabia. “It’s a coordinated effort and the entire logistics ecosystem is working together.” Ellili noted that cooperation between regional port authorities and customs regimes was happening “in real time across borders.” “That level of GCC coordination is something that I’ve never seen before in nearly three decades in this industry, and it signals a maturity in the regional logistics ecosystem,” he said. “The corridors we have created are not going to go back into the box. This is a new normal for the Middle East.” About 95% of all goods in the Persian Gulf countries are imported, mostly by ocean, and routed through the Middle East’s largest port — Jebel Ali in the UAE. When the war started on Feb. 28, the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed to commercial traffic and ocean carriers offloaded containers at ports en route, such as Singapore or Colombo, or at the ports of Fujairah and Sohar on the Gulf of Oman just outside Hormuz, or Salalah on the Arabian Sea. Forwarders scrambled to find road transport solutions to get the stranded boxes to destinations in the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Iraq, and the land logistics were quickly overwhelmed by the wave of inbound volume. <h3>Proactive decisions ease bottlenecks </h3>But seven weeks on and with improving coordination between regional governments, the land transport bottlenecks, while still a challenge on some routes, have eased. “It was remarkable how proactive governments were with decisions taken in one or two days that normally would take months to happen,” Rami Karout, senior manager of Transports Internationaux Routiers (TIR) and transit development at the IRU, told the webcast. Karout attributed much of the smoother cross-border flows to the conflict-accelerated use of TIR, which was rolled out in the GCC in 2017. It is a UN-mandated, IRU-managed global customs transit system that simplifies cross-border trade. TIR allows sealed containers to transit GCC borders with minimal inspection using a single guarantee, cutting transit times by up to 92% and lowering costs. “The use of TIR in submitting advanced cargo information has been optimized during this crisis to facilitate the movement of goods and it has been severely tested,” Karout said. “Time is critical when it comes to cargo movements at the borders, especially now with costs skyrocketing, and if you have an element where operators can save time at borders, that is precious,” he added. While road transport will never be able to handle the millions of containers imported into the Persian Gulf every year, its role in the regional logistics chain has been strengthened by the war, according to Hasan Boz, deputy director general at the Turkish Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure. “After the crisis, the corridor connecting Turkey with Middle Eastern countries should not be considered only as an alternative or transit road,” Boz told the IRU webcast. “The corridor will help increase trade between Turkey and Saudi Arabia, between Turkey and Europe, Jordan and Romania or Bulgaria and Syria. “This corridor may be a transit route, but it will also increase bilateral trade in the region,” he added. Ellili said over the past few weeks, shippers have experienced reliability in transit times and predictability of GCC overland corridors and will likely keep a portion of their volume on land as a permanent diversification strategy. “Optionality is now a strategy for traders and manufacturers and carriers,” he said. “Single corridor dependency is no longer acceptable as a risk option and boards of directors are demanding dual corridor strategies. “In the last 49 days, we have stress tested the optionality of different corridors and optionality works,” Ellili added. Optionality has moved from a nice to have to a must have.” Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The huge volume of diverted Middle East-bound ocean cargo that overwhelmed land transport systems in the region has accelerated collaboration between countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) that will outlast the war, regional industry leaders say. Decisions involving cross-border trade that before the conflict would have taken months are now being decided in days, speeding up road transits, freeing urgently needed capacity and easing customs procedures, a webinar organized by global road transport association IRU heard Wednesday. “What we have witnessed so far is that it’s not six countries in the region responding independently to a crisis,” said Achraf Ellili, CEO of Flow Progressive Logistics in Saudi Arabia. “It’s a coordinated effort and the entire logistics ecosystem is working together.” Ellili noted that cooperation between regional port authorities and customs regimes was happening “in real time across borders.” “That level of GCC coordination is something that I’ve never seen before in nearly three decades in this industry, and it signals a maturity in the regional logistics ecosystem,” he said. “The corridors we have created are not going to go back into the box. This is a new normal for the Middle East.” About 95% of all goods in the Persian Gulf countries are imported, mostly by ocean, and routed through the Middle East’s largest port — Jebel Ali in the UAE. When the war started on Feb. 28, the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed to commercial traffic and ocean carriers offloaded containers at ports en route, such as Singapore or Colombo, or at the ports of Fujairah and Sohar on the Gulf of Oman just outside Hormuz, or Salalah on the Arabian Sea. Forwarders scrambled to find road transport solutions to get the stranded boxes to destinations in the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Iraq, and the land logistics were quickly overwhelmed by the wave of inbound volume. Proactive decisions ease bottlenecks But seven weeks on and with improving coordination between regional governments, the land transport bottlenecks, while still a challenge on some routes, have eased. “It was remarkable how proactive governments were with decisions taken in one or two days that normally would take months to happen,” Rami Karout, senior manager of Transports Internationaux Routiers (TIR) and transit development at the IRU, told the webcast. Karout attributed much of the smoother cross-border flows to the conflict-accelerated use of TIR, which was rolled out in the GCC in 2017. It is a UN-mandated, IRU-managed global customs transit system that simplifies cross-border trade. TIR allows sealed containers to transit GCC borders with minimal inspection using a single guarantee, cutting transit times by up to 92% and lowering costs. “The use of TIR in submitting advanced cargo information has been optimized during this crisis to facilitate the movement of goods and it has been severely tested,” Karout said. “Time is critical when it comes to cargo movements at the borders, especially now with costs skyrocketing, and if you have an element where operators can save time at borders, that is precious,” he added. While road transport will never be able to handle the millions of containers imported into the Persian Gulf every year, its role in the regional logistics chain has been strengthened by the war, according to Hasan Boz, deputy director general at the Turkish Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure. “After the crisis, the corridor connecting Turkey with Middle Eastern countries should not be considered only as an alternative or transit road,” Boz told the IRU webcast. “The corridor will help increase trade between Turkey and Saudi Arabia, between Turkey and Europe, Jordan and Romania or Bulgaria and Syria. “This corridor may be a transit route, but it will also increase bilateral trade in the region,” he added. Ellili said over the past few weeks, shippers have experienced reliability in transit times and predictability of GCC overland corridors and will likely keep a portion of their volume on land as a permanent diversification strategy. “Optionality is now a strategy for traders and manufacturers and carriers,” he said. “Single corridor dependency is no longer acceptable as a risk option and boards of directors are demanding dual corridor strategies. “In the last 49 days, we have stress tested the optionality of different corridors and optionality works,” Ellili added. Optionality has moved from a nice to have to a must have.” Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Supply chain

Middle East war accelerates regional cross-border cooperation

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Ocean carriers say there is still enough bunker fuel availability in general, but the different fuel types are unevenly distributed and affecting key refueling hubs in Asia, notably Singapore. </div>

Ocean carriers say there is still enough bunker fuel availability in general, but the different fuel types are unevenly distributed and affecting key refueling hubs in Asia, notably Singapore.

<div class="phx-topic">Container lines face the prospect of major global shortages of bunker fuel within two or three months if oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. Such a scenario where fuel scarcity — particularly the low-sulfur kind — expands from South Asia to other bunkering locations globally would put a premium on ships equipped with exhaust scrubbers that are able to burn high-sulfur fuel. About 40% of the global container shipping fleet have exhaust gas cleaning systems, according to Alphaliner. The scrubbers remove harmful sulfur oxides and particulate matter from marine exhaust fumes, allowing ships to burn high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) while complying with international IMO 2020 pollution regulations. Carriers say there is still enough bunker fuel supply in general, but the different fuel types — very low-sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO), HSFO, marine gasoil (MGO) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) — are becoming unevenly distributed at key refueling hubs in Asia, notably Singapore. “As of mid-April 2026, the Strait of Hormuz closure remains the primary driver of supply anxiety, forcing a significant shift in where vessels choose to lift fuel,” said Fotios Katsoulas, director and head of tankers, freight and alternative fuels research at S&amp;P Global Energy. S&amp;P Global is the parent of the Journal of Commerce. “The global bunker market is currently defined by a sharp divide between well-stocked Western hubs and severely constrained Eastern corridors,” he added. “While we aren’t seeing widespread ‘dry’ ports, the tightness in specific regions — particularly around low-sulfur blends and high-viscosity fuel for project cargo vessels — is definitely a valid concern.” <h3>Scrubber-equipped vessels more flexible </h3>The greater availability of HSFO, at least for now, provides an advantage to vessels equipped with scrubbers, according to Paolo Montrone, senior vice president and head of global trades at Kuehne + Nagel. “If there are big shortages, we believe the availability of high-sulfur fuel will probably be more spread out through many bunkering ports, including the smaller ports,” Montrone said in an interview with the Journal of Commerce Tuesday. “Ships with scrubbers will have an advantage in terms of flexibility, not necessarily just over-availability of supply or cost, but purely on where you can actually bunker,” he added. “It will become not so much about supply and demand and price, but about how to get the fuel where you need it and when you need it.” Jan Tiedemann, senior analyst for liner shipping and ports at Alphaliner, agreed that flexibility was key, with some LNG and methanol dual-fuel vessels even equipped with scrubbers. For instance, Mediterranean Shipping Co. retrofitted scrubbers on 35-year-old ships and also had scrubbers fitted on brand new LNG vessels, he noted. A spokesperson for Hapag-Lloyd said fuel type was just one of many factors in how the carrier deployed its ships. “What matters most are stable schedules, network needs and our commitments to customers,” he told the Journal of Commerce.“Scrubber-equipped vessels do provide some additional flexibility, but any changes in deployment would be made very carefully and based on overall network requirements — not just on fuel availability.” The industry welcomed a two-week ceasefire agreed to between the US and Iran last week, but peace talks between the two parties in Islamabad on April 11–12 collapsed after less than 24 hours. Tensions over oil exports from the Persian Gulf were then further ratcheted up Monday when the US launched a counter-blockade in the Strait of Hormuz to force Iran to abandon its blockade and allow toll-free shipping to resume through the waterway. Commercial transit through Hormuz has now effectively halted, Crane Worldwide Logistics said in a Middle East update Tuesday. While approximately 17 vessels transited the strait on April 11 — the highest post‑ceasefire volume — traffic fell to near zero as the US blockade implementation approached. “Major operators have confirmed they will not attempt passage without full insurance cover, citing mines in the main channel and enforcement risk,” Crane noted. “More than 3,200 vessels, including over 800 tankers, remain stranded across the Gulf, with charter and insurance markets re‑hardening sharply and all ceasefire‑era relief erased.” <h3>Visibility to manage fuel types </h3>Carriers say they are still able to find the bunker fuel they need, but it is not always in the locations where it is needed. Some carriers are topping up ships in Europe where VLSFO is available, and at a lower cost to Singapore, and transporting the fuel to Asia. Montrone said feedback from the major carriers is that they expect to see challenges if the distribution of fuel and bottlenecks in the Middle East continue for another two to three months. In preparation, Kuehne + Nagel has been poring over visibility data on its SeaExplorer tool to consider ways to manage potential bunker shortages of certain fuel types. “Eight years ago, in SeaExplorer we classified ships by fuel type and by scrubber or non-scrubber, and it was not that useful in the past,” Montrone said. “We have at our fingertips, loop by loop, what is LNG, what is VLSFO and what ships have scrubbers. “We are now looking at all these details to ensure that we have the right flexibility and capacity to be able to get in front of a potential issue, and we believe we are fairly well prepared,” he added. Jacob Moe, global head of full container load (FCL) and trade management at DHL Global Forwarding, said emerging shortages in bunker supply would bring the network resilience of maritime supply chains into the spotlight. “If Hormuz remains disrupted and replenishment becomes more constrained in key Asian hubs, carriers will need to operate with less flexibility across networks, which typically translates into reduced effective capacity, omitted or adjusted port calls, longer lead times and additional cost pressure,” Moe told the Journal of Commerce. “Cargo will continue to move, but with materially less predictability, and that is usually the first thing customers feel,” he added. Data from Signal Ocean shows global seaborne crude oil shipments have fallen 16% since the beginning of the Middle East war compared with the first nine weeks of 2026. “This represents a reduction of 7.6 million barrels per day [mb/d] to 38.4 mb/p,” Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at Bimco, said in a market update Tuesday. “Coincidentally, shipments during the past six weeks have likewise been 16% lower than during the same period last year. “Even if the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened, it may take a long time for crude oil and other energy shipments to return to previous volumes,” he noted. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Container lines face the prospect of major global shortages of bunker fuel within two or three months if oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. Such a scenario where fuel scarcity — particularly the low-sulfur kind — expands from South Asia to other bunkering locations globally would put a premium on ships equipped with exhaust scrubbers that are able to burn high-sulfur fuel. About 40% of the global container shipping fleet have exhaust gas cleaning systems, according to Alphaliner. The scrubbers remove harmful sulfur oxides and particulate matter from marine exhaust fumes, allowing ships to burn high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) while complying with international IMO 2020 pollution regulations. Carriers say there is still enough bunker fuel supply in general, but the different fuel types — very low-sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO), HSFO, marine gasoil (MGO) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) — are becoming unevenly distributed at key refueling hubs in Asia, notably Singapore. “As of mid-April 2026, the Strait of Hormuz closure remains the primary driver of supply anxiety, forcing a significant shift in where vessels choose to lift fuel,” said Fotios Katsoulas, director and head of tankers, freight and alternative fuels research at S&P Global Energy. S&P Global is the parent of the Journal of Commerce. “The global bunker market is currently defined by a sharp divide between well-stocked Western hubs and severely constrained Eastern corridors,” he added. “While we aren’t seeing widespread ‘dry’ ports, the tightness in specific regions — particularly around low-sulfur blends and high-viscosity fuel for project cargo vessels — is definitely a valid concern.” Scrubber-equipped vessels more flexible The greater availability of HSFO, at least for now, provides an advantage to vessels equipped with scrubbers, according to Paolo Montrone, senior vice president and head of global trades at Kuehne + Nagel. “If there are big shortages, we believe the availability of high-sulfur fuel will probably be more spread out through many bunkering ports, including the smaller ports,” Montrone said in an interview with the Journal of Commerce Tuesday. “Ships with scrubbers will have an advantage in terms of flexibility, not necessarily just over-availability of supply or cost, but purely on where you can actually bunker,” he added. “It will become not so much about supply and demand and price, but about how to get the fuel where you need it and when you need it.” Jan Tiedemann, senior analyst for liner shipping and ports at Alphaliner, agreed that flexibility was key, with some LNG and methanol dual-fuel vessels even equipped with scrubbers. For instance, Mediterranean Shipping Co. retrofitted scrubbers on 35-year-old ships and also had scrubbers fitted on brand new LNG vessels, he noted. A spokesperson for Hapag-Lloyd said fuel type was just one of many factors in how the carrier deployed its ships. “What matters most are stable schedules, network needs and our commitments to customers,” he told the Journal of Commerce. “Scrubber-equipped vessels do provide some additional flexibility, but any changes in deployment would be made very carefully and based on overall network requirements — not just on fuel availability.” The industry welcomed a two-week ceasefire agreed to between the US and Iran last week, but peace talks between the two parties in Islamabad on April 11–12 collapsed after less than 24 hours. Tensions over oil exports from the Persian Gulf were then further ratcheted up Monday when the US launched a counter-blockade in the Strait of Hormuz to force Iran to abandon its blockade and allow toll-free shipping to resume through the waterway. Commercial transit through Hormuz has now effectively halted, Crane Worldwide Logistics said in a Middle East update Tuesday. While approximately 17 vessels transited the strait on April 11 — the highest post‑ceasefire volume — traffic fell to near zero as the US blockade implementation approached. “Major operators have confirmed they will not attempt passage without full insurance cover, citing mines in the main channel and enforcement risk,” Crane noted. “More than 3,200 vessels, including over 800 tankers, remain stranded across the Gulf, with charter and insurance markets re‑hardening sharply and all ceasefire‑era relief erased.” Visibility to manage fuel types Carriers say they are still able to find the bunker fuel they need, but it is not always in the locations where it is needed. Some carriers are topping up ships in Europe where VLSFO is available, and at a lower cost to Singapore, and transporting the fuel to Asia. Montrone said feedback from the major carriers is that they expect to see challenges if the distribution of fuel and bottlenecks in the Middle East continue for another two to three months. In preparation, Kuehne + Nagel has been poring over visibility data on its SeaExplorer tool to consider ways to manage potential bunker shortages of certain fuel types. “Eight years ago, in SeaExplorer we classified ships by fuel type and by scrubber or non-scrubber, and it was not that useful in the past,” Montrone said. “We have at our fingertips, loop by loop, what is LNG, what is VLSFO and what ships have scrubbers. “We are now looking at all these details to ensure that we have the right flexibility and capacity to be able to get in front of a potential issue, and we believe we are fairly well prepared,” he added. Jacob Moe, global head of full container load (FCL) and trade management at DHL Global Forwarding, said emerging shortages in bunker supply would bring the network resilience of maritime supply chains into the spotlight. “If Hormuz remains disrupted and replenishment becomes more constrained in key Asian hubs, carriers will need to operate with less flexibility across networks, which typically translates into reduced effective capacity, omitted or adjusted port calls, longer lead times and additional cost pressure,” Moe told the Journal of Commerce. “Cargo will continue to move, but with materially less predictability, and that is usually the first thing customers feel,” he added. Data from Signal Ocean shows global seaborne crude oil shipments have fallen 16% since the beginning of the Middle East war compared with the first nine weeks of 2026. “This represents a reduction of 7.6 million barrels per day [mb/d] to 38.4 mb/p,” Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at Bimco, said in a market update Tuesday. “Coincidentally, shipments during the past six weeks have likewise been 16% lower than during the same period last year. “Even if the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened, it may take a long time for crude oil and other energy shipments to return to previous volumes,” he noted. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Bunker fuel shortages loom after US counter blocks Strait of Hormuz 

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