Oct. 27, 1999NO. 4/ NO. 6/ NO. 6/1% 1% 0.5%Bu

<div>Oct. 27, 1999NO. 4/ NO. 6/ NO. 6/1% 1% 0.5%Buckley 29.85 26.15 31.15East River 32.05 27.05 -_Global 31.00 26.00 __Hess 26.65 __ __Buckley - 4 0.3%-35.85, 4 0.5%-34.85.Prices do not include gross receipts tax.When this table appears: Daily.</div>...

Oct. 27, 1999 NO. 4/ NO. 6/ NO. 6/ 1% 1% 0.5% Buckley 29.85 26.15 31.15 East River 32.05 27.05 -_ Global 31.00 26.00 __ Hess 26.65 __ __ Buckley - 4 0.3%-35.85, 4 0.5%-34.85. Prices do not include gross receipts tax. When this table appears: Daily.

NEW HAVEN RESIDUAL FUELS

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The leading US truck brokerage said a rate spike due to winter weather does not signal a stronger trucking market, while international freight demand remains tepid.</div>

The leading US truck brokerage said a rate spike due to winter weather does not signal a stronger trucking market, while international freight demand remains tepid.

Feature image

<div class="phx-topic">CH Robinson sees no near-term catalyst for US freight demand, with air and ocean rates likely remaining close to current levels and recent spikes in truck rates largely driven by winter weather. The truck brokerage and global forwarder, though, said its artificial intelligence (AI) initiatives continue to help it serve customers faster and gain market share. CH Robinson said Thursday its forwarding business saw an 8% year-over-year decline in ocean freight volumes for the fourth quarter of 2025, while its air freight tonnage declined 12.5%. Chief Executive David Bozeman said on an earnings conference call that <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ch-robinson-cautious-on-second-half-outlook-amid-trade-volatility-6053833">frontloading by shippers throughout 2025</a> led to a “more pronounced decline in demand after the Q3 peak season.” “International freight continues to be impacted by global trade policies,” Bozeman said. “The macro conditions for global transportation companies were difficult in Q4, and we are not impervious to these volume and rate dynamics.” With air and ocean rates also declining, adjusted gross profit for CH Robinson’s forwarding business fell 12.7% in the fourth quarter to $178 million. The company did see a higher profit margin in the forwarding business, which Bozeman said was due to the segment’s revenue management and use of a “cohesive, centralized model with standardized and lean AI-enabled processes.” As for any immediate post-holiday bump, CFO Damon Lee said that declines in ocean freight rates that started in the third quarter “continued into Q4 and we expect that to continue into Q1.” “So, Q1, starting out a little challenging, but Q4 ended a little challenging,” Lee added. <h3>No change in demand </h3>Despite the decline in the forwarding business, CH Robinson’s truck brokerage saw fourth-quarter gross profit increase slightly, helping it beat analysts’ profit estimates. CH Robinson reported a fourth-quarter net profit of $1.23 per share, versus a $1.13 consensus estimate, according to Capital IQ, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. The company said that its overall truck volume rose 1% during the fourth quarter, versus a 7.6% drop in volume for the period as measured by the Cass Freight Shipment Index. Bozeman, meanwhile, said <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/truckload-brokers-eye-human-technology-balance-as-ai-takes-hold-5876340">AI is automating many broker tasks</a>, adding that AI allowed CH Robinson to manage a recent spike in truckload rates without affecting margins. “Spot market costs for truckload capacity spiked during the last five weeks of the quarter due to a seasonal decline in capacity, three winter storms and incremental pressure from the cumulative [federal] enforcement of various commercial driver regulations,” Bozeman said. While truck spot rates can spike during winter weather, those spikes will abate through the first quarter while more drivers will also return to the road, Michael Castagnetto, president of CH Robinson’s truck brokerage, said on the call. “When you think about an actual market inflection, which we’ve all been trying to predict as an industry for the better part of three and a half years now, there wasn’t a material demand change during the quarter,” Castagnetto said. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto: michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

CH Robinson sees no near-term catalyst for US freight demand, with air and ocean rates likely remaining close to current levels and recent spikes in truck rates largely driven by winter weather. The truck brokerage and global forwarder, though, said its artificial intelligence (AI) initiatives continue to help it serve customers faster and gain market share. CH Robinson said Thursday its forwarding business saw an 8% year-over-year decline in ocean freight volumes for the fourth quarter of 2025, while its air freight tonnage declined 12.5%. Chief Executive David Bozeman said on an earnings conference call that frontloading by shippers throughout 2025 led to a “more pronounced decline in demand after the Q3 peak season.” “International freight continues to be impacted by global trade policies,” Bozeman said. “The macro conditions for global transportation companies were difficult in Q4, and we are not impervious to these volume and rate dynamics.” With air and ocean rates also declining, adjusted gross profit for CH Robinson’s forwarding business fell 12.7% in the fourth quarter to $178 million. The company did see a higher profit margin in the forwarding business, which Bozeman said was due to the segment’s revenue management and use of a “cohesive, centralized model with standardized and lean AI-enabled processes.” As for any immediate post-holiday bump, CFO Damon Lee said that declines in ocean freight rates that started in the third quarter “continued into Q4 and we expect that to continue into Q1.” “So, Q1, starting out a little challenging, but Q4 ended a little challenging,” Lee added. No change in demand Despite the decline in the forwarding business, CH Robinson’s truck brokerage saw fourth-quarter gross profit increase slightly, helping it beat analysts’ profit estimates. CH Robinson reported a fourth-quarter net profit of $1.23 per share, versus a $1.13 consensus estimate, according to Capital IQ, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. The company said that its overall truck volume rose 1% during the fourth quarter, versus a 7.6% drop in volume for the period as measured by the Cass Freight Shipment Index. Bozeman, meanwhile, said AI is automating many broker tasks , adding that AI allowed CH Robinson to manage a recent spike in truckload rates without affecting margins. “Spot market costs for truckload capacity spiked during the last five weeks of the quarter due to a seasonal decline in capacity, three winter storms and incremental pressure from the cumulative [federal] enforcement of various commercial driver regulations,” Bozeman said. While truck spot rates can spike during winter weather, those spikes will abate through the first quarter while more drivers will also return to the road, Michael Castagnetto, president of CH Robinson’s truck brokerage, said on the call. “When you think about an actual market inflection, which we’ve all been trying to predict as an industry for the better part of three and a half years now, there wasn’t a material demand change during the quarter,” Castagnetto said. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Forwarding

Truck brokers

CH Robinson seeing muted freight market to start 2026

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Amid new threats from Houthi militants and the arrival of a US carrier strike group in the region, carriers — and their customers — are once again wondering when they will be able to safely transit the Red Sea/Suez route.</div>

Amid new threats from Houthi militants and the arrival of a US carrier strike group in the region, carriers — and their customers — are once again wondering when they will be able to safely transit the Red Sea/Suez route.

<div class="phx-topic">Shippers on the trades linking Asia to Europe and the US East Coast hoping for a resumption of Red Sea and Suez Canal transits remain at the mercy of factors out of their control as the regional security situation deteriorates anew. A US carrier strike group has arrived in the Gulf of Oman to back up another threat by President Donald Trump to take military action against Iran, this time over the lack of progress in a nuclear deal. Tehran has vowed to respond to any attacks, which may spill over into the southern Red Sea controlled by Iran-supported Houthi militants. And that leaves carriers, and their customers, once again wondering when they will be able to safely transit the Red Sea/Suez route, more than two years after the Houthis began their attacks on commercial shipping. “Shippers are faced with the greatest challenges out there right now,” said Destine Ozuygur, senior market analyst at rate benchmarking platform Xeneta. “They’re at the bottom of the operational decision funnel, which leaves them more vulnerable to shocks or setbacks than any other stakeholder in the equation.” Shippers, Ozuygur told the Journal of Commerce, are forced to create a procurement strategy that “rests on their ability to surmise the behavior of carriers, insurers, politicians [and] militias.” “Even with a complex framework of decision-making tools, operational insights and the best data visibility out there, we can’t confidently predict the next six weeks, let alone the next six days in a scenario like this,” she said. The complexity that confounds shipping analysis was illustrated in developments this month. After two years of diversions around southern Africa, expectations that head-haul Suez voyages would likely resume after the Lunar New Year gathered momentum when Maersk on Jan. 15 announced that <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/maersk-set-to-resume-regular-suez-transits-on-india-usec-mecl-loop-sources-6152441">a Middle East-US East Coast service would be routed through the Red Sea</a>. But the ink was barely dry on that announcement when CMA CGM, one of the main Red Sea users over the past two years, said it would <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/cma-cgm-backs-off-plans-to-resume-suez-transits-for-asia-europe-services-6155264">scale back plans to send three Asia-Europe westbound services through the Suez</a>, citing the “complex and uncertain international context.” A week later, the Iran-backed Houthi released two videos warning that <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/latest-houthi-threat-renews-questions-about-suez-route-as-us-iran-tensions-rise-6158709">ship attacks could resume “soon,”</a> just days before the US carrier strike group led by the USS Abraham Lincoln arrived with Trump’s new attack threat on Tehran. <h3>Frustrating turn of events </h3>It has been a frustrating turn of events for shippers eager to return to the shorter Suez route. The Asia-based supply chain director for a European retailer said his company was planning for the resumption of Suez transits after Lunar New Year, which begins Feb. 17, following talks with carriers that were confident head-haul services would gradually increase. That confidence was fueled by the absence of any Houthi attacks since November, following the Israel-Hamas ceasefire the month before. “But the situation has changed again, and we are now not ready to put cargo through the Suez,” the source told the Journal of Commerce, adding that their insurance broker said cargo on ships routed through the Red Sea would not be covered in the event of an attack. Another European importer said his cargo was covered for Red Sea transits, but the high cost of premiums was prohibitive, something that remains a significant hurdle for both carriers and shippers. Marine insurance provider Allianz Commercial told the Journal of Commerce this week that cost increases for ships transiting areas requiring war insurance depended on the assessment of the Joint War Committee in London, comprised of underwriting representatives from Lloyd’s and the International Underwriting Association. “The amount of the additional premiums can be very dynamic and is evaluated by individual underwriters, typically per vessel per voyage, and reflects current developments in individual shipping areas,” a spokesperson for Allianz said. But insurance issues extend beyond costs, according to Andy Gillespie, senior logistics advisor for supply chain management firm WOWL. Shippers sending cargo through the Red Sea would need to alert insurers and obtain specific rider coverage for shipments, but he said carrier alliance networks muddied the waters. “Think of this: The carrier I book and ship with is not transiting Suez but my container with them is on a partner’s vessel that is transiting Suez,” Gillespie said. “It shouldn’t be an issue to get the riders, but shippers better be alert to which shipments will be impacted. Carriers should be communicating the routings to customers.” <h3>Security concerns make visibility difficult </h3>But that kind of visibility from carriers would be difficult to provide under the fluid security situation, believes James Hookham, director of the Global Shippers Forum. “Whether shippers and forwarders will be able to pick a ship that transits the Suez will depend on the lines publishing a schedule of their intended routes, and that might be too much information in the public domain at this time,” he said. Ozuygur also had her doubts that shippers would have the visibility they need over voyages to establish their preferred strategies of shorter transit times/high risk compared with longer transits and lower risks. “Then they must reconcile that against whether they believe the carrier will follow through on that promise, and then finally have a plan B and a plan C in place if things go sideways,” she said. “That means having a close eye on service and voyage-level data across the entire network, access to expert analysis, and visibility into carriers’ track records of transparency, communication and reliability,” Ozuygur added. According to Drewry’s Red Sea Diversion Tracker, the number of container ships sailing via the Suez Canal jumped 69% to 61 in the two-week period ending Jan. 25, from a low base of 36 transits in the previous two-week period, as large carriers and smaller niche liners balanced the changing safety risk and the potential commercial benefit of the shorter route. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Shippers on the trades linking Asia to Europe and the US East Coast hoping for a resumption of Red Sea and Suez Canal transits remain at the mercy of factors out of their control as the regional security situation deteriorates anew. A US carrier strike group has arrived in the Gulf of Oman to back up another threat by President Donald Trump to take military action against Iran, this time over the lack of progress in a nuclear deal. Tehran has vowed to respond to any attacks, which may spill over into the southern Red Sea controlled by Iran-supported Houthi militants. And that leaves carriers, and their customers, once again wondering when they will be able to safely transit the Red Sea/Suez route, more than two years after the Houthis began their attacks on commercial shipping. “Shippers are faced with the greatest challenges out there right now,” said Destine Ozuygur, senior market analyst at rate benchmarking platform Xeneta. “They’re at the bottom of the operational decision funnel, which leaves them more vulnerable to shocks or setbacks than any other stakeholder in the equation.” Shippers, Ozuygur told the Journal of Commerce, are forced to create a procurement strategy that “rests on their ability to surmise the behavior of carriers, insurers, politicians [and] militias.” “Even with a complex framework of decision-making tools, operational insights and the best data visibility out there, we can’t confidently predict the next six weeks, let alone the next six days in a scenario like this,” she said. The complexity that confounds shipping analysis was illustrated in developments this month. After two years of diversions around southern Africa, expectations that head-haul Suez voyages would likely resume after the Lunar New Year gathered momentum when Maersk on Jan. 15 announced that a Middle East-US East Coast service would be routed through the Red Sea . But the ink was barely dry on that announcement when CMA CGM, one of the main Red Sea users over the past two years, said it would scale back plans to send three Asia-Europe westbound services through the Suez , citing the “complex and uncertain international context.” A week later, the Iran-backed Houthi released two videos warning that ship attacks could resume “soon,” just days before the US carrier strike group led by the USS Abraham Lincoln arrived with Trump’s new attack threat on Tehran. Frustrating turn of events It has been a frustrating turn of events for shippers eager to return to the shorter Suez route. The Asia-based supply chain director for a European retailer said his company was planning for the resumption of Suez transits after Lunar New Year, which begins Feb. 17, following talks with carriers that were confident head-haul services would gradually increase. That confidence was fueled by the absence of any Houthi attacks since November, following the Israel-Hamas ceasefire the month before. “But the situation has changed again, and we are now not ready to put cargo through the Suez,” the source told the Journal of Commerce, adding that their insurance broker said cargo on ships routed through the Red Sea would not be covered in the event of an attack. Another European importer said his cargo was covered for Red Sea transits, but the high cost of premiums was prohibitive, something that remains a significant hurdle for both carriers and shippers. Marine insurance provider Allianz Commercial told the Journal of Commerce this week that cost increases for ships transiting areas requiring war insurance depended on the assessment of the Joint War Committee in London, comprised of underwriting representatives from Lloyd’s and the International Underwriting Association. “The amount of the additional premiums can be very dynamic and is evaluated by individual underwriters, typically per vessel per voyage, and reflects current developments in individual shipping areas,” a spokesperson for Allianz said. But insurance issues extend beyond costs, according to Andy Gillespie, senior logistics advisor for supply chain management firm WOWL. Shippers sending cargo through the Red Sea would need to alert insurers and obtain specific rider coverage for shipments, but he said carrier alliance networks muddied the waters. “Think of this: The carrier I book and ship with is not transiting Suez but my container with them is on a partner’s vessel that is transiting Suez,” Gillespie said. “It shouldn’t be an issue to get the riders, but shippers better be alert to which shipments will be impacted. Carriers should be communicating the routings to customers.” Security concerns make visibility difficult But that kind of visibility from carriers would be difficult to provide under the fluid security situation, believes James Hookham, director of the Global Shippers Forum. “Whether shippers and forwarders will be able to pick a ship that transits the Suez will depend on the lines publishing a schedule of their intended routes, and that might be too much information in the public domain at this time,” he said. Ozuygur also had her doubts that shippers would have the visibility they need over voyages to establish their preferred strategies of shorter transit times/high risk compared with longer transits and lower risks. “Then they must reconcile that against whether they believe the carrier will follow through on that promise, and then finally have a plan B and a plan C in place if things go sideways,” she said. “That means having a close eye on service and voyage-level data across the entire network, access to expert analysis, and visibility into carriers’ track records of transparency, communication and reliability,” Ozuygur added. According to Drewry’s Red Sea Diversion Tracker, the number of container ships sailing via the Suez Canal jumped 69% to 61 in the two-week period ending Jan. 25, from a low base of 36 transits in the previous two-week period, as large carriers and smaller niche liners balanced the changing safety risk and the potential commercial benefit of the shorter route. Contact Greg Knowler at  greg.knowler@spglobal.com . 

Container lines

Asia-Europe

Container Shipping News

Maritime

Shippers shoulder burden of Red Sea uncertainty as regional tensions rise again

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Stonepeak will pay $2.4 billion to take a 25% stake in the United Ports JV while the French carrier will hold 75% and maintain operational control of the terminals involved. </div>

Stonepeak will pay $2.4 billion to take a 25% stake in the United Ports JV while the French carrier will hold 75% and maintain operational control of the terminals involved.

<div class="phx-topic">CMA CGM and private equity firm Stonepeak on Wednesday said they’ve formed a global marine terminals joint venture that involves 11 of the carrier’s major port assets in the US, South America, Europe, and Asia. Stonepeak will pay $2.4 billion to take a 25% stake in the JV, known as United Ports LLC. CMA CGM will hold 75% and maintain operational control of the terminals. The sale to Stonepeak puts the value of the terminals venture at $9.6 billion.“By joining forces with a partner with strong infrastructure expertise, we strengthen our ability to invest further in our port terminals, secure access to key gateways and enhance service quality for our customers,” CMA CGM Chief Executive Rodolphe Saadé said in a statement. Under the deal, Stonepeak has the option to contribute $3.6 billion in additional funding for future joint terminal projects, while CMA CGM said it will reinvest the initial $2.4 billion from the minority stake sale into its core business. The United Ports JV comes about 11 months after Saadé visited US President Donald Trump at the White House and <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/cma-cgm-to-invest-20-billion-in-us-shipping-ports-and-logistics-5957748">announced CMA CGM would spend $20 billion</a> over the next four years to significantly bolster its logistics presence in the US, including port assets. <h3>Los Angeles, New York terminals part of JV </h3>In the US, the terminals that will be part of the United Ports joint venture are the Fenix Marine Services (FMS) terminal in Los Angeles, and the Port Liberty Terminals in Bayonne, New Jersey. and Staten Island. United Ports will also include four container terminals in Spain: CSP Valencia, CSP Bilbao, Terminal Maritima de Guadalquivir, and TTI Algeciras. Other terminals in the joint venture include Brazil’s Santos terminal, CMA CGM’s Kaohsiung terminal in Taiwan, Nhava Sheva Freeport in India, and Vietnam’s Gemalink terminal in Cai Mep. Stonepeak is a major investor in container logistics and related infrastructure. It owns chassis provider TRAC Intermodal and has invested in cold-storage operator Lineage, container lessor Textainer and breakbulk terminal operator Logistec. “Container terminals play an essential role in global trade and are among the most difficult to substitute or replicate transportation infrastructure assets,” James Wyper, senior managing director and head of US private equity for Stonepeak, said in the statement. CMA CGM operates 41 terminals globally, according to its website, handling over 17 million TEUs annually. CMA CGM is also the majority owner of Terminal Link, a joint venture with China Merchants Port Holdings, that operates 21 terminals handling 29 million TEUs. Much of the CMA CGM terminals portfolio, as with the terminal assets of its competitors, has been assembled since liners pulled in record profits during the pandemic, providing ocean carriers a homeport in major markets. The pandemic highlighted <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/hutchison-deal-shows-thirst-of-big-carriers-to-control-global-terminal-assets-5960717">the need for ocean carriers to have operational control of terminals</a> instead of having ships wait in a queue at third-party terminals. In 2021, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/cma-cgm-flexes-financial-might-with-fenix-marine-acquisition-5206339">it purchased the 90% share it did not already own in Fenix Marine</a>, which alone had a $2.3 billion enterprise value, according to CMA CGM. The following year, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/cma-cgm-adds-terminal-assets-in-new-yorknew-jersey-5217593">it bought out Global Container Terminals’ leases for the Bayonne and Staten Island terminals</a>. CMA CGM terminals also formed a joint venture in 2022 with India’s JM Baxi Group for a 30-year concession on the Nhava Sheva terminal. Last year, CMA CGM began a public tender offer <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/cma-cgm-becomes-majority-shareholder-in-santos-brasil-terminal-operator-5991343">for the remaining stake it did not own in the Santos terminal</a>, a deal worth about $2.3 billion. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

CMA CGM and private equity firm Stonepeak on Wednesday said they’ve formed a global marine terminals joint venture that involves 11 of the carrier’s major port assets in the US, South America, Europe, and Asia. Stonepeak will pay $2.4 billion to take a 25% stake in the JV, known as United Ports LLC. CMA CGM will hold 75% and maintain operational control of the terminals. The sale to Stonepeak puts the value of the terminals venture at $9.6 billion. “By joining forces with a partner with strong infrastructure expertise, we strengthen our ability to invest further in our port terminals, secure access to key gateways and enhance service quality for our customers,” CMA CGM Chief Executive Rodolphe Saadé said in a statement. Under the deal, Stonepeak has the option to contribute $3.6 billion in additional funding for future joint terminal projects, while CMA CGM said it will reinvest the initial $2.4 billion from the minority stake sale into its core business. The United Ports JV comes about 11 months after Saadé visited US President Donald Trump at the White House and announced CMA CGM would spend $20 billion over the next four years to significantly bolster its logistics presence in the US, including port assets. Los Angeles, New York terminals part of JV In the US, the terminals that will be part of the United Ports joint venture are the Fenix Marine Services (FMS) terminal in Los Angeles, and the Port Liberty Terminals in Bayonne, New Jersey. and Staten Island. United Ports will also include four container terminals in Spain: CSP Valencia, CSP Bilbao, Terminal Maritima de Guadalquivir, and TTI Algeciras. Other terminals in the joint venture include Brazil’s Santos terminal, CMA CGM’s Kaohsiung terminal in Taiwan, Nhava Sheva Freeport in India, and Vietnam’s Gemalink terminal in Cai Mep. Stonepeak is a major investor in container logistics and related infrastructure. It owns chassis provider TRAC Intermodal and has invested in cold-storage operator Lineage, container lessor Textainer and breakbulk terminal operator Logistec. “Container terminals play an essential role in global trade and are among the most difficult to substitute or replicate transportation infrastructure assets,” James Wyper, senior managing director and head of US private equity for Stonepeak, said in the statement. CMA CGM operates 41 terminals globally, according to its website, handling over 17 million TEUs annually. CMA CGM is also the majority owner of Terminal Link, a joint venture with China Merchants Port Holdings, that operates 21 terminals handling 29 million TEUs. Much of the CMA CGM terminals portfolio, as with the terminal assets of its competitors, has been assembled since liners pulled in record profits during the pandemic, providing ocean carriers a homeport in major markets. The pandemic highlighted the need for ocean carriers to have operational control of terminals instead of having ships wait in a queue at third-party terminals. In 2021, it purchased the 90% share it did not already own in Fenix Marine , which alone had a $2.3 billion enterprise value, according to CMA CGM. The following year, it bought out Global Container Terminals’ leases for the Bayonne and Staten Island terminals . CMA CGM terminals also formed a joint venture in 2022 with India’s JM Baxi Group for a 30-year concession on the Nhava Sheva terminal. Last year, CMA CGM began a public tender offer for the remaining stake it did not own in the Santos terminal , a deal worth about $2.3 billion. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Port News

North American ports

Marine terminals

International ports

CMA CGM forms global terminals venture with private equity firm

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The parcel giant saw its forwarding and third-party logistics business drop in the fourth quarter due to higher tariffs, and says the weakness will carry over into the first quarter of 2026. </div>

The parcel giant saw its forwarding and third-party logistics business drop in the fourth quarter due to higher tariffs, and says the weakness will carry over into the first quarter of 2026.

<div class="phx-topic">United Parcel Service saw financial results in its supply chain division fall during the fourth quarter of 2025 amid the pullback in international freight. Although it expects results to improve through the year, UPS said the first quarter of 2026 is still being buffeted by last year’s big changes to US trade policy. UPS reported Monday that its supply chain business saw fourth-quarter revenue decline 12.7% to $2.7 billion, largely due to the impact of lower rates in its air and ocean forwarding business. The segment was also hit with lower volumes for delivering parcel shipments to the US Postal Service. Operating income for the segment rose 16% thanks to last year’s acquisition of healthcare logistics provider Andlauer, and strong growth in reverse supply chain solutions and in its same-day delivery app usage. The company’s parcel business saw a slight decline in the fourth quarter as higher revenue in its international business rose but could not offset the volume and revenue declines in its US parcel business. <h3>Expects ‘extreme weakness’ in international business </h3>During an earnings call Monday, UPS CFO Brian Dykes said the company’s results are still being impacted by higher US tariffs, the Trump administration’s threats to existing trade agreements with Canada and Mexico, and the end of tariff-free shipments on low-value, international goods that came into the US under the de minimis exemption. Dykes said the company is expecting “extreme weakness” in its international business during the first quarter due to changing North American trade flows and the higher tariffs the US put on Chinese goods. While UPS is pivoting to handle shipments from other Asian countries to the US, the margins on that business are not as high as its China-to-US business. “There was a lot of pressure both from Canada and Mexico, as well as continued decline in our China-to-US lanes, and really all of our US inbound lanes,” Dykes said. “That’s going to roll over into the first quarter as well.” “We are going to see extreme weakness in the first quarter that kind of gradually recovers,” he added. “We will lap the tariff impact in May and start to see positive growth from that. And then we’ll lap the de minimis impact in September.” Dykes said the UPS supply chain business should grow by high single-digits in 2026, thanks in part to the Andlauer acquisition. “[But] looking at the first quarter, we expect revenue to be approximately flat with a year-over-year decline in operating profit due to changes in trade lanes and tough comps from the front-running of tariffs and de minimis changes in 2025,” he said. UPS said it’s responding to the changing trade environment by investing outside of US trade lanes. UPS Vice President Kathleen Gutmann said on the call the company has a new air hub in Vietnam that’s operating at 80% capacity. She said the company is still seeing double-digit growth for shipments out of Asia, but “they’re going to Europe and India.” Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

United Parcel Service saw financial results in its supply chain division fall during the fourth quarter of 2025 amid the pullback in international freight. Although it expects results to improve through the year, UPS said the first quarter of 2026 is still being buffeted by last year’s big changes to US trade policy. UPS reported Monday that its supply chain business saw fourth-quarter revenue decline 12.7% to $2.7 billion, largely due to the impact of lower rates in its air and ocean forwarding business. The segment was also hit with lower volumes for delivering parcel shipments to the US Postal Service. Operating income for the segment rose 16% thanks to last year’s acquisition of healthcare logistics provider Andlauer, and strong growth in reverse supply chain solutions and in its same-day delivery app usage. The company’s parcel business saw a slight decline in the fourth quarter as higher revenue in its international business rose but could not offset the volume and revenue declines in its US parcel business. Expects ‘extreme weakness’ in international business During an earnings call Monday, UPS CFO Brian Dykes said the company’s results are still being impacted by higher US tariffs, the Trump administration’s threats to existing trade agreements with Canada and Mexico, and the end of tariff-free shipments on low-value, international goods that came into the US under the de minimis exemption. Dykes said the company is expecting “extreme weakness” in its international business during the first quarter due to changing North American trade flows and the higher tariffs the US put on Chinese goods. While UPS is pivoting to handle shipments from other Asian countries to the US, the margins on that business are not as high as its China-to-US business. “There was a lot of pressure both from Canada and Mexico, as well as continued decline in our China-to-US lanes, and really all of our US inbound lanes,” Dykes said. “That’s going to roll over into the first quarter as well.” “We are going to see extreme weakness in the first quarter that kind of gradually recovers,” he added. “We will lap the tariff impact in May and start to see positive growth from that. And then we’ll lap the de minimis impact in September.” Dykes said the UPS supply chain business should grow by high single-digits in 2026, thanks in part to the Andlauer acquisition. “[But] looking at the first quarter, we expect revenue to be approximately flat with a year-over-year decline in operating profit due to changes in trade lanes and tough comps from the front-running of tariffs and de minimis changes in 2025,” he said. UPS said it’s responding to the changing trade environment by investing outside of US trade lanes. UPS Vice President Kathleen Gutmann said on the call the company has a new air hub in Vietnam that’s operating at 80% capacity. She said the company is still seeing double-digit growth for shipments out of Asia, but “they’re going to Europe and India.” Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Air Cargo Carriers News

Air Cargo

Supply chain

Changes in US trade policy hitting UPS’ supply chain business

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Railroads are restricting train speeds and building shorter trains to reduce the potential for breakdowns and derailments in the bitter cold. </div>

Railroads are restricting train speeds and building shorter trains to reduce the potential for breakdowns and derailments in the bitter cold.

<div class="phx-topic">US Class I railroads on Wednesday remained in recovery mode after severe winter weather impacted a large swath of the country over the weekend, with shippers seeing delays as trains operate at slower speeds as a safety precaution. Railroads have also shortened the average train length to prevent equipment breakdowns in frigid temperatures. Frontline workers must inspect tracks, which contract in the extreme cold and could result in a derailment if not caught in time. Terminals must also slow operations because overhead cranes, lift machines, and hostlers that move containers within the facilities are susceptible to malfunctioning in the cold. Union Pacific Railroad (UP) said the biggest disruptions are happening in Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas, impacting trains to Dallas-Ft. Worth, New Orleans, and Shreveport. There have also been disruptions in Little Rock, Arkansas, where UP handles non-intermodal manifest trains. UP said the West Coast was not impacted, while the northern part of its network recovered quickly. “In that central-east and southern part, they’ve done a spectacular job of recovering,” UP CEO Jim Vena said Tuesday during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call. “Where it would have taken us weeks to get back [to normal], we should see that ... after a few days.” The railroad said it was 70% recovered as of Tuesday and should be back to normal in terms of infrastructure on Thursday or Friday. BNSF Railway saw the biggest impact on terminals in Haslet, outside of Dallas-Ft. Worth, and Memphis. COFC Logistics, a partner of BNSF for domestic intermodal, warned customers to expect delays getting domestic boxes through those two terminals in the short term. “The overall network is expected to stabilize by the end of the week, with full recovery anticipated early next week,” COFC wrote in an advisory to customers Tuesday afternoon. “Crews continue working through lingering ice in Tulsa, Memphis, and North Fort Worth. Another surge of arctic air is expected Friday into Saturday, and BNSF is positioning additional locomotives where train‑length restrictions will be required.” Norfolk Southern Railway suspended the lifting of international containers on and off trucks in Atlanta on Sunday and Monday, extending free time for any impacted cargo owners. It has since returned to normal operations. <h3>Cutting train lengths </h3>Aside from slowing trains for safety, railroads are running shorter trains because various components such as air and brake systems, bearings, wheels, and locomotives can freeze, crack, or lose power in extreme cold. The longer the train, the greater the risk. Data from rail visibility platform RailState shows the median intermodal train length fell more than 20% in Ohio, 10% in Pennsylvania and 1.4% in Indiana on Sunday and Monday compared with before the storm. In the case of Ohio, the median train length is 1,479 feet shorter post-storm versus pre-storm, which equates to approximately 25 fewer containers on a single-stack train, or 50 boxes if containers are piled two high. The result is that more boxes will be left behind at origin, which means slower trains and longer dwells will create more delays for intermodal shippers in the impacted regions. <h3>Storm impact on truck market </h3>Meanwhile, it is likely the truckload spot market will see an upward pop in rates due to the snowstorm, much like after a hurricane or tornado. Data from providers such as DAT Freight and Analytics is calculated on a rolling three-day and seven-day average, so more information should be available in the coming days. Ken Adamo, DAT’s chief of analytics, does not believe the impact will be as severe as February 2021 when snow, ice, frigid temperatures, and a prolonged blackout in Texas gridlocked truck and rail freight for weeks. “Beyond the precipitation and blowing snow, the deep arctic chill that has settled into a large portion of the country has spiked demand for protect-from-freeze loads and slowed storm cleanup,” Adamo wrote on LinkedIn Wednesday morning. “As a result, the seasonal freefall of rates has abated and shot back up.” Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

US Class I railroads on Wednesday remained in recovery mode after severe winter weather impacted a large swath of the country over the weekend, with shippers seeing delays as trains operate at slower speeds as a safety precaution. Railroads have also shortened the average train length to prevent equipment breakdowns in frigid temperatures. Frontline workers must inspect tracks, which contract in the extreme cold and could result in a derailment if not caught in time. Terminals must also slow operations because overhead cranes, lift machines, and hostlers that move containers within the facilities are susceptible to malfunctioning in the cold. Union Pacific Railroad (UP) said the biggest disruptions are happening in Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas, impacting trains to Dallas-Ft. Worth, New Orleans, and Shreveport. There have also been disruptions in Little Rock, Arkansas, where UP handles non-intermodal manifest trains. UP said the West Coast was not impacted, while the northern part of its network recovered quickly. “In that central-east and southern part, they’ve done a spectacular job of recovering,” UP CEO Jim Vena said Tuesday during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call. “Where it would have taken us weeks to get back [to normal], we should see that ... after a few days.” The railroad said it was 70% recovered as of Tuesday and should be back to normal in terms of infrastructure on Thursday or Friday. BNSF Railway saw the biggest impact on terminals in Haslet, outside of Dallas-Ft. Worth, and Memphis. COFC Logistics, a partner of BNSF for domestic intermodal, warned customers to expect delays getting domestic boxes through those two terminals in the short term. “The overall network is expected to stabilize by the end of the week, with full recovery anticipated early next week,” COFC wrote in an advisory to customers Tuesday afternoon. “Crews continue working through lingering ice in Tulsa, Memphis, and North Fort Worth. Another surge of arctic air is expected Friday into Saturday, and BNSF is positioning additional locomotives where train‑length restrictions will be required.” Norfolk Southern Railway suspended the lifting of international containers on and off trucks in Atlanta on Sunday and Monday, extending free time for any impacted cargo owners. It has since returned to normal operations. Cutting train lengths Aside from slowing trains for safety, railroads are running shorter trains because various components such as air and brake systems, bearings, wheels, and locomotives can freeze, crack, or lose power in extreme cold. The longer the train, the greater the risk. Data from rail visibility platform RailState shows the median intermodal train length fell more than 20% in Ohio, 10% in Pennsylvania and 1.4% in Indiana on Sunday and Monday compared with before the storm. In the case of Ohio, the median train length is 1,479 feet shorter post-storm versus pre-storm, which equates to approximately 25 fewer containers on a single-stack train, or 50 boxes if containers are piled two high. The result is that more boxes will be left behind at origin, which means slower trains and longer dwells will create more delays for intermodal shippers in the impacted regions. Storm impact on truck market Meanwhile, it is likely the truckload spot market will see an upward pop in rates due to the snowstorm, much like after a hurricane or tornado. Data from providers such as DAT Freight and Analytics is calculated on a rolling three-day and seven-day average, so more information should be available in the coming days. Ken Adamo, DAT’s chief of analytics, does not believe the impact will be as severe as February 2021 when snow, ice, frigid temperatures, and a prolonged blackout in Texas gridlocked truck and rail freight for weeks. “Beyond the precipitation and blowing snow, the deep arctic chill that has settled into a large portion of the country has spiked demand for protect-from-freeze loads and slowed storm cleanup,” Adamo wrote on LinkedIn Wednesday morning. “As a result, the seasonal freefall of rates has abated and shot back up.” Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

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