<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Jan. 21, 1999No. 4/ No. 6/ No. 6/1% 1% 0.5%Buckley 20</div>

Jan. 21, 1999No. 4/ No. 6/ No. 6/1% 1% 0.5%Buckley 20

<div>Jan. 21, 1999No. 4/ No. 6/ No. 6/1% 1% 0.5%Buckley 20.20 19.30 24.30East River 21.55 20.45 __Global 20.50 19.40 __Hess 19.45 __ __Buckley - 4 0.3%- 26.10, 4 0.5%- 25.20.Prices do not include gross receipts tax.</div>...

Jan. 21, 1999 No. 4/ No. 6/ No. 6/ 1% 1% 0.5% Buckley 20.20 19.30 24.30 East River 21.55 20.45 __ Global 20.50 19.40 __ Hess 19.45 __ __ Buckley - 4 0.3%- 26.10, 4 0.5%- 25.20. Prices do not include gross receipts tax.

NEW HAVEN RESIDUAL FUELS

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Power generation cargoes are on the rise amid surging demand linked to data centers, but cargo generated by oil projects will be on shakier ground in 2026. </div>

Power generation cargoes are on the rise amid surging demand linked to data centers, but cargo generated by oil projects will be on shakier ground in 2026.

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<div class="phx-topic">A lumpy project cargo demand outlook through 2027 is creating a confused market, with a jagged split of “haves” and “have nots” when it comes to cargo commitments. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6164834_0.1.jpg"></img></div>According to data from S&amp;P Global Energy, global power demand is surging, impacted significantly by demand from data centers. The demand for power from these new installations has accelerated faster than most grids can accommodate, prompting demand not only for the equipment that will produce the extra power needed, but also new infrastructure to renew the power grid in some regions, principally North America. Growth in demand for power from data centers is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 13.5% through 2030 for the US alone, according to S&amp;P Global Energy. Growth in power demand from these installations for mainland China is forecast at a CAGR of 14.1% and at 10% for Europe. India is starting at a much lower base, but the forecast growth over the next five years is over 25% per year. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="e4371a05-8ffc-4840-852c-9d7c41a4fb0c"></dynamic-object></div>OEMs have told the Journal of Commerce their factories are fully booked to produce turbines for the next few years. At the same time, ship operators with deck carriers and heavy-lift capability said they have fixed long-term contracts of affreightment for specialized tonnage. <h3>Mixed cargo demand picture </h3>Conversely, other sectors are not seeing the same levels of booming cargo demand. Crude oil prices are expected to remain at or below $60 per barrel for most of 2026, according to S&amp;P Global Energy, adversely impacting global exploration and production capital spending for 2026 and continuing the negative trend from 2024. Some of the largest decreases in expected spend for 2026 are in Europe (down 9.4%) North America (down 5%), and Asia-Pacific (down 5%). This is expected to lead to a drop in new rigs, both off and onshore, of almost 2% in 2026, according to S&amp;P Global Energy. The oil and gas sector is a significant driver of project cargo demand. Shippers and forwarders operating in this sector have confirmed to the Journal of Commerce that the cargo outlook is not as rosy as it is for the power generation sector. Some oil-related projects saw investors disappear in 2025, with little expectation that they will return in 2026, forwarders said. In the US, economic uncertainty persists, as do concerns over oil supply constraints and uncertainty regarding the latest round of US sanctions. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="a91a35c4-7675-4a37-9ee9-7c352444edc8"></dynamic-object></div>Inventory levels in 2026 are significantly above those seen in 2025 and production growth is forecast to outpace demand growth over first quarter 2026. S&amp;P Global Energy assumes that OPEC+ will halt production increases during 2026, but there is no expectation of a reduction in Russian production or exports. This has led to S&amp;P Global Energy to forecast an average crude price for 2026 of $50-60/barrel. Oil majors use an oil price benchmark nearer to $70/barrel for investment commitments for exploration and production projects. <h3>MPV fleet supply remains tight </h3>Growth in the MPV fleet has been focused on the heavy-lift sector for the past few years, catering to those heavier power generation and wind cargoes. That sector of the fleet is expected to grow by an average annual rate of 4.1% through 2030, according to the Journal of Commerce. Newbuilding orders for the heavy-lift sector continue to trickle in and demolition levels remain low. For the MPV fleet, with heavy-lift capability below 250 tons, growth is projected at less than 1% per year over the same period. Demolition levels for this sector are marginally higher, mainly because this fleet is older, but there is also more competition for these cargoes, and rates are expected to remain at or below current levels for some time. In addition to the risk of falling oil and gas project investment, there are more unknowns that could destabilize parts of the MPV sector in 2026. When the Red Sea eventually reopens for all tonnage, there will be a 10% rise in MPV capacity, according to Journal of Commerce projections. Some of this may be mopped up by short-term port congestion upon reopening, but likely not enough to avoid overcapacity. The geopolitical outlook also remains uncertain, and tariffs continue to affect breakbulk and project cargo trade. That said, patchy cargo demand for some sectors of the fleet could work in shippers’ favor as there will be increased competition for the cargoes that are transported, forwarders say. Contact Susan Oatway at <a href="mailto:susan.oatway@spglobal.com">susan.oatway@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

A lumpy project cargo demand outlook through 2027 is creating a confused market, with a jagged split of “haves” and “have nots” when it comes to cargo commitments. According to data from S&P Global Energy, global power demand is surging, impacted significantly by demand from data centers. The demand for power from these new installations has accelerated faster than most grids can accommodate, prompting demand not only for the equipment that will produce the extra power needed, but also new infrastructure to renew the power grid in some regions, principally North America. Growth in demand for power from data centers is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 13.5% through 2030 for the US alone, according to S&P Global Energy. Growth in power demand from these installations for mainland China is forecast at a CAGR of 14.1% and at 10% for Europe. India is starting at a much lower base, but the forecast growth over the next five years is over 25% per year. OEMs have told the Journal of Commerce their factories are fully booked to produce turbines for the next few years. At the same time, ship operators with deck carriers and heavy-lift capability said they have fixed long-term contracts of affreightment for specialized tonnage. Mixed cargo demand picture Conversely, other sectors are not seeing the same levels of booming cargo demand. Crude oil prices are expected to remain at or below $60 per barrel for most of 2026, according to S&P Global Energy, adversely impacting global exploration and production capital spending for 2026 and continuing the negative trend from 2024. Some of the largest decreases in expected spend for 2026 are in Europe (down 9.4%) North America (down 5%), and Asia-Pacific (down 5%). This is expected to lead to a drop in new rigs, both off and onshore, of almost 2% in 2026, according to S&P Global Energy. The oil and gas sector is a significant driver of project cargo demand. Shippers and forwarders operating in this sector have confirmed to the Journal of Commerce that the cargo outlook is not as rosy as it is for the power generation sector. Some oil-related projects saw investors disappear in 2025, with little expectation that they will return in 2026, forwarders said. In the US, economic uncertainty persists, as do concerns over oil supply constraints and uncertainty regarding the latest round of US sanctions. Inventory levels in 2026 are significantly above those seen in 2025 and production growth is forecast to outpace demand growth over first quarter 2026. S&P Global Energy assumes that OPEC+ will halt production increases during 2026, but there is no expectation of a reduction in Russian production or exports. This has led to S&P Global Energy to forecast an average crude price for 2026 of $50-60/barrel. Oil majors use an oil price benchmark nearer to $70/barrel for investment commitments for exploration and production projects. MPV fleet supply remains tight Growth in the MPV fleet has been focused on the heavy-lift sector for the past few years, catering to those heavier power generation and wind cargoes. That sector of the fleet is expected to grow by an average annual rate of 4.1% through 2030, according to the Journal of Commerce. Newbuilding orders for the heavy-lift sector continue to trickle in and demolition levels remain low. For the MPV fleet, with heavy-lift capability below 250 tons, growth is projected at less than 1% per year over the same period. Demolition levels for this sector are marginally higher, mainly because this fleet is older, but there is also more competition for these cargoes, and rates are expected to remain at or below current levels for some time. In addition to the risk of falling oil and gas project investment, there are more unknowns that could destabilize parts of the MPV sector in 2026. When the Red Sea eventually reopens for all tonnage, there will be a 10% rise in MPV capacity, according to Journal of Commerce projections. Some of this may be mopped up by short-term port congestion upon reopening, but likely not enough to avoid overcapacity. The geopolitical outlook also remains uncertain, and tariffs continue to affect breakbulk and project cargo trade. That said, patchy cargo demand for some sectors of the fleet could work in shippers’ favor as there will be increased competition for the cargoes that are transported, forwarders say. Contact Susan Oatway at susan.oatway@spglobal.com .

Energy projects

Project cargo

Breakbulk News

Maritime

‘Lumpy’ project cargo demand to lead to two-tier MPV market

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Still, the company’s CFO cautioned that no one should “get out over their skis” from the standpoint of freight recovery expectations.</div>

Still, the company’s CFO cautioned that no one should “get out over their skis” from the standpoint of freight recovery expectations.

<div class="phx-topic">Old Dominion Freight Lines (ODFL), one of the top US less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers, is “cautiously optimistic” about 2026 despite a decline in fourth-quarter revenue and volume, the company said Wednesday. The carrier believes the US economy and freight demand were showing signs of growth late in the fourth quarter, and that those trends continued through January. “We are better positioned than any other carrier to capitalize on an improving economy,” ODFL CEO Marty Freeman said during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call. “We’ve seen some positive signs that we’ve been really pleased with over the past couple of months that have been developing and then the release this week of the ISM, was certainly very positive to see and maybe is an indication of how things will be hopefully for the rest of the year.” The ISM, or Institute for Supply Chain Management, reported a manufacturing index of 52.6 for January, up from 47.9 in December. Any figure above 50 indicates economic expansion, but the index had failed to do so for 26 consecutive months until last month. A manufacturing index greater than 47.5 over several months generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy, according to the ISM. Industrial freight is more likely to move via LTL, reflecting its higher density and lower cubic footprint. Retail shipments, by contrast, tend to be lighter and more voluminous, often filling a trailer before reaching weight limits. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="a2e61684-cd67-4f71-a46d-bab789387eb5"></dynamic-object></div>ODFL said its shippers have also begun to feel more optimistic. “We’ve had feedback that inventories are generally lower, and we are going to see some inventory replenishment,” Freeman said. “We move everything including the kitchen sink, so you got housing starts improving, you’ll [have] things like faucets and so forth with increased demand there.” ODFL CFO Adam Satterfield added that shippers have said that increased consumer confidence and buying patterns will eventually result in higher overall LTL demand and volume. “We’ve had some really good customer conversations in the sense of what they were anticipating their volumes might look like and the amount of business that they would tender to us,” he said on the call. “Then inventory needs to be replenished and those will all be good things that will find its way onto our trucks.” <h3>Q4 revenue down </h3>Total revenue for ODFL declined 5.7% year over year to nearly $1.3 billion in the fourth quarter. The company said the decrease was primarily due to a 10.7% decline in LTL tons per day. However, revenue per hundredweight — i.e. the revenue per 100 pounds of freight — rose 5.6% year over year, suggesting ODFL raised rates on shippers to grow its margins, sacrificing volume to do so. Satterfield said ODFL is well-positioned to take advantage of the freight recovery when it happens because it has maintained what the company called “cost discipline in a challenging environment.” ODFL closed the year with 21,304 full-time employees, down 5.4% year over year, and it still has excess capacity to absorb a surge in freight. Satterfield said ODFL is flexible enough to handle “significant volume growth” without disruption, which has caused the LTL carrier to win market share in previous freight rebounds. “We’re definitely prepared for the upcycle,” he said. “We’ve got a little over 35% capacity in our service center network. We’re handling a little over 40,000 shipments per day right now and our network is built to handle more like 55,000 and even more.” Still, Satterfield cautioned that no one should “get out over their skis” from the standpoint of recovery expectations. “It remains to be seen if this really is going to lead into that spring surge that we would typically see,” he said. “We certainly feel like the stars are coming into alignment, but we felt that way before, and in particular about February and March of last year. So that’s why we continue to say we’re cautiously optimistic about how things might develop for this year.” Contact Dan Ronan at <a href="mailto:contactdanronan@gmail.com">contactdanronan@gmail.com</a>.</div>

Old Dominion Freight Lines (ODFL), one of the top US less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers, is “cautiously optimistic” about 2026 despite a decline in fourth-quarter revenue and volume, the company said Wednesday. The carrier believes the US economy and freight demand were showing signs of growth late in the fourth quarter, and that those trends continued through January. “We are better positioned than any other carrier to capitalize on an improving economy,” ODFL CEO Marty Freeman said during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call. “We’ve seen some positive signs that we’ve been really pleased with over the past couple of months that have been developing and then the release this week of the ISM, was certainly very positive to see and maybe is an indication of how things will be hopefully for the rest of the year.” The ISM, or Institute for Supply Chain Management, reported a manufacturing index of 52.6 for January, up from 47.9 in December. Any figure above 50 indicates economic expansion, but the index had failed to do so for 26 consecutive months until last month. A manufacturing index greater than 47.5 over several months generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy, according to the ISM. Industrial freight is more likely to move via LTL, reflecting its higher density and lower cubic footprint. Retail shipments, by contrast, tend to be lighter and more voluminous, often filling a trailer before reaching weight limits. ODFL said its shippers have also begun to feel more optimistic. “We’ve had feedback that inventories are generally lower, and we are going to see some inventory replenishment,” Freeman said. “We move everything including the kitchen sink, so you got housing starts improving, you’ll [have] things like faucets and so forth with increased demand there.” ODFL CFO Adam Satterfield added that shippers have said that increased consumer confidence and buying patterns will eventually result in higher overall LTL demand and volume. “We’ve had some really good customer conversations in the sense of what they were anticipating their volumes might look like and the amount of business that they would tender to us,” he said on the call. “Then inventory needs to be replenished and those will all be good things that will find its way onto our trucks.” Q4 revenue down Total revenue for ODFL declined 5.7% year over year to nearly $1.3 billion in the fourth quarter. The company said the decrease was primarily due to a 10.7% decline in LTL tons per day. However, revenue per hundredweight — i.e. the revenue per 100 pounds of freight — rose 5.6% year over year, suggesting ODFL raised rates on shippers to grow its margins, sacrificing volume to do so. Satterfield said ODFL is well-positioned to take advantage of the freight recovery when it happens because it has maintained what the company called “cost discipline in a challenging environment.” ODFL closed the year with 21,304 full-time employees, down 5.4% year over year, and it still has excess capacity to absorb a surge in freight. Satterfield said ODFL is flexible enough to handle “significant volume growth” without disruption, which has caused the LTL carrier to win market share in previous freight rebounds. “We’re definitely prepared for the upcycle,” he said. “We’ve got a little over 35% capacity in our service center network. We’re handling a little over 40,000 shipments per day right now and our network is built to handle more like 55,000 and even more.” Still, Satterfield cautioned that no one should “get out over their skis” from the standpoint of recovery expectations. “It remains to be seen if this really is going to lead into that spring surge that we would typically see,” he said. “We certainly feel like the stars are coming into alignment, but we felt that way before, and in particular about February and March of last year. So that’s why we continue to say we’re cautiously optimistic about how things might develop for this year.” Contact Dan Ronan at contactdanronan@gmail.com .

Trucking News

Surface

ODFL ‘cautiously optimistic’ about LTL demand despite lackluster Q4

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The decision by the Panama Supreme Court has provoked angry responses from both the Chinese and Hong Kong governments, with Beijing warning that Panama would “pay a heavy price both politically and economically.”</div>

The decision by the Panama Supreme Court has provoked angry responses from both the Chinese and Hong Kong governments, with Beijing warning that Panama would “pay a heavy price both politically and economically.”

<div class="phx-topic">Panama Ports Company (PPC) is seeking “extensive damages” after launching arbitration proceedings against the government of Panama following the decision of the country’s Supreme Court last week to void the company’s concessions to operate the Cristobal and Balboa ports. PPC had held the concessions for 28 years. The port company, 90% controlled by Hutchison Port Holdings, a subsidiary of Hong Kong-listed conglomerate CK Hutchison, said Wednesday the Panamanian government has already started to take control of the terminals that bookend the Panama Canal even though the court decision has yet to be published and finalized. “The steps taken by the state have included unexpected site visits and instructions that PPC provide unrestricted access to physical, commercial, and intellectual property and information, as well as to employees, on the basis that the state is systematizing and executing a port transition plan through coordinated actions of state authorities,” PPC said in a statement. APM Terminals (AMPT), which was appointed by the Panama Maritime Authority <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/apmt-to-run-hutchisons-panama-terminals-on-interim-basis-after-court-ruling-6161534">as interim administrator of the two terminals a day after the court’s decision</a>, would not comment on whether it had taken part in the site visits or other actions following the court ruling. “At this moment, we have no further comments to share other than what we have released on our website,” an APMT spokesperson said. “For any next steps we refer to the relevant authorities in Panama.” CK Hutchison on Wednesday said it “continues to consult with its legal counsel and reserves all rights, including recourse to additional national and international legal proceedings.” <h3>Beijing says Panama will ‘pay a heavy price’ </h3>The Supreme Court decision can only be delayed, not overturned, and legal proceedings such as those launched by PPC can linger for years and often go nowhere. The move appears to be more of an effort by Hutchison to show investors that it is exhausting all options even if there is no path forward. The decision by the Panamanian court has provoked an angry response from both the Chinese and Hong Kong governments, with Beijing’s Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office warning Panama would “pay a heavy price both politically and economically.” The Hong Kong government said the Panama government “should respect the spirit of contracts and provide a fair and just business environment for companies operating legally there, ensuring that the legitimate rights of enterprises are free from any interference.” Interestingly, in a separate case, a ruling three years ago by Panama’s Supreme Court resulted in the closure of a major copper mine in the country, although there seems to be <a href="https://nam11.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.msn.com%2Fen-us%2Fmoney%2Fother%2Fpanama-and-canada-are-caught-in-a-dispute-over-a-copper-mine%2Far-AA1UL4T1%3Focid%3DBingNewsSerp&amp;data=05%7C02%7Ckevin.saville2%40spglobal.com%7C4a5fd62251cd4285f25808de63f3221d%7C8f3e36ea80394b4081a77dc0599e8645%7C1%7C0%7C639058093052350394%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&amp;sdata=8gpwQrSg12fJdYx5%2FwrCwv4DiH9wtV%2B7213f6JROaOE%3D&amp;reserved=0">developments underway that could result in the mine’s reopening</a>. Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>.</div>

Panama Ports Company (PPC) is seeking “extensive damages” after launching arbitration proceedings against the government of Panama following the decision of the country’s Supreme Court last week to void the company’s concessions to operate the Cristobal and Balboa ports. PPC had held the concessions for 28 years. The port company, 90% controlled by Hutchison Port Holdings, a subsidiary of Hong Kong-listed conglomerate CK Hutchison, said Wednesday the Panamanian government has already started to take control of the terminals that bookend the Panama Canal even though the court decision has yet to be published and finalized. “The steps taken by the state have included unexpected site visits and instructions that PPC provide unrestricted access to physical, commercial, and intellectual property and information, as well as to employees, on the basis that the state is systematizing and executing a port transition plan through coordinated actions of state authorities,” PPC said in a statement. APM Terminals (AMPT), which was appointed by the Panama Maritime Authority as interim administrator of the two terminals a day after the court’s decision , would not comment on whether it had taken part in the site visits or other actions following the court ruling. “At this moment, we have no further comments to share other than what we have released on our website,” an APMT spokesperson said. “For any next steps we refer to the relevant authorities in Panama.” CK Hutchison on Wednesday said it “continues to consult with its legal counsel and reserves all rights, including recourse to additional national and international legal proceedings.” Beijing says Panama will ‘pay a heavy price’ The Supreme Court decision can only be delayed, not overturned, and legal proceedings such as those launched by PPC can linger for years and often go nowhere. The move appears to be more of an effort by Hutchison to show investors that it is exhausting all options even if there is no path forward. The decision by the Panamanian court has provoked an angry response from both the Chinese and Hong Kong governments, with Beijing’s Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office warning Panama would “pay a heavy price both politically and economically.” The Hong Kong government said the Panama government “should respect the spirit of contracts and provide a fair and just business environment for companies operating legally there, ensuring that the legitimate rights of enterprises are free from any interference.” Interestingly, in a separate case, a ruling three years ago by Panama’s Supreme Court resulted in the closure of a major copper mine in the country, although there seems to be developments underway that could result in the mine’s reopening . Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

Port News

Marine terminals

International ports

Container Shipping News

Panama Ports seeks ‘extensive damages’ after terminal concessions canceled

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Spot intermodal savings reached record levels in the fourth quarter, but railroads might hold back on raising rates as the disruptive winter weather has skewed trucking rates. </div>

Spot intermodal savings reached record levels in the fourth quarter, but railroads might hold back on raising rates as the disruptive winter weather has skewed trucking rates.

<div class="phx-topic">US shippers saved 25.6% on spot market freight — a record— and 25.4% on contract loads in the fourth quarter by using domestic intermodal instead of long-haul trucking amid a rise in truckload spot rates, according to the latest Journal of Commerce <a href="https://www.joc.com/resources/special-reports/intermodal-savings-index">Intermodal Savings Index</a> (ISI). It’s the first time in the history of the ISI, dating back to 2016, that the spot market index was higher than the contract index. The driver was unusually frigid weather and snowstorms in the US in December that caused spot truckload rates to jump, while railroads have continued to keep spot market rates low. Railroads tend to lag truckload rates, jacking up pricing only after there is strong enough evidence that truckload markets have inflected toward motor carriers. Given the severe winter weather in January, it remains to be seen whether railroads take the opportunity to increase spot rates in the first quarter or hold back until normal weather conditions return and gauge the trucking market only then. North American railroads hauled 2.29 million domestic containers in the fourth quarter, up 2.2% compared with a year earlier, according to the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA). The results were slightly higher than the Journal of Commerce forecast of 2.26 million loads for the fourth quarter. There was an additional 1.5 working days in the fourth quarter compared with the same quarter of 2024, according to a Journal of Commerce calculation, which assigns weightings to each day of the week, and holidays, based on historical data from the US Surface Transportation Board. The Spot ISI averaged 125.6 in the fourth quarter, up from 120.2 a year earlier. The Contract ISI slipped to 125.4 from 126.4 a year earlier. Index values above 100 indicate intermodal is the more cost-effective mode; the higher the index number, the greater the savings. A spot ISI of 125.6 translates to a 25.6% savings on intermodal versus truckload, while a contract ISI of 125.4 implies a 25.4% savings. All calculations assume local drayage at origin and destination, so shippers with distribution centers more than 30 minutes from the terminal will save less than the index values. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="9f0dff14-0731-4ad3-859c-d093757d1ed4"></dynamic-object></div>Per-mile rates show how the trucking market impacted results. Spot truckload rates jumped 20 cents to $2.15 per mile on indexed lanes between Sept. 30 and Dec. 31, while spot intermodal rates on the same lanes were unchanged. Contract truckload rates increased by a penny per mile during the quarter, while contract intermodal rates rose by a half-cent in the same period. In terms of raw dollars, intermodal shippers saved an average of $800 per container on the spot market in the fourth quarter compared with truckload, and $870 per container on the contract market. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the average spot intermodal load saved $700 per container, with the contract load saving $925 per container. <h3>Intermodal will follow truckload recovery </h3>Two of the top US domestic intermodal providers said the market did not turn around enough in the fourth quarter to give them pricing leverage, but it will once the truckload market rebounds. Based on past cycles, truckload spot markets tend to move first, followed by truckload contract rates, and then intermodal prices shift higher once shippers begin to feel capacity constraints or budget pressure. “[It’ll take] a little more time before we see intermodal prices catch up to what we expect in truckload,” said Mark Rourke, CEO of Schneider, on a Jan. 29 earnings call. Jim Filter, executive vice president of Schneider, said the company will capitalize on intermodal opportunities when the truckload market improves and “inventory levels are starting to be replenished.” The top US intermodal provider, J.B. Hunt, also did not call for an immediate rise in intermodal prices. “We’re a little bit hesitant to suggest that we think there’s some big pricing opportunity, but we will be quick to identify when we see the market shift,” Darren Field, president of J.B. Hunt’s intermodal division, said on a Jan. 15 earnings call. Shippers have told the Journal of Commerce that there are some minor rate increases on west-to-east rail freight, particularly originating in Southern California, but pricing remains flattish in other origins such as the Pacific Northwest and Mexico. Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>. The data behind the Contract ISI and Spot ISI is available to Journal of Commerce subscribers with a Gold-tier subscription. </div>

US shippers saved 25.6% on spot market freight — a record— and 25.4% on contract loads in the fourth quarter by using domestic intermodal instead of long-haul trucking amid a rise in truckload spot rates, according to the latest Journal of Commerce Intermodal Savings Index (ISI). It’s the first time in the history of the ISI, dating back to 2016, that the spot market index was higher than the contract index. The driver was unusually frigid weather and snowstorms in the US in December that caused spot truckload rates to jump, while railroads have continued to keep spot market rates low. Railroads tend to lag truckload rates, jacking up pricing only after there is strong enough evidence that truckload markets have inflected toward motor carriers. Given the severe winter weather in January, it remains to be seen whether railroads take the opportunity to increase spot rates in the first quarter or hold back until normal weather conditions return and gauge the trucking market only then. North American railroads hauled 2.29 million domestic containers in the fourth quarter, up 2.2% compared with a year earlier, according to the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA). The results were slightly higher than the Journal of Commerce forecast of 2.26 million loads for the fourth quarter. There was an additional 1.5 working days in the fourth quarter compared with the same quarter of 2024, according to a Journal of Commerce calculation, which assigns weightings to each day of the week, and holidays, based on historical data from the US Surface Transportation Board. The Spot ISI averaged 125.6 in the fourth quarter, up from 120.2 a year earlier. The Contract ISI slipped to 125.4 from 126.4 a year earlier. Index values above 100 indicate intermodal is the more cost-effective mode; the higher the index number, the greater the savings. A spot ISI of 125.6 translates to a 25.6% savings on intermodal versus truckload, while a contract ISI of 125.4 implies a 25.4% savings. All calculations assume local drayage at origin and destination, so shippers with distribution centers more than 30 minutes from the terminal will save less than the index values. Per-mile rates show how the trucking market impacted results. Spot truckload rates jumped 20 cents to $2.15 per mile on indexed lanes between Sept. 30 and Dec. 31, while spot intermodal rates on the same lanes were unchanged. Contract truckload rates increased by a penny per mile during the quarter, while contract intermodal rates rose by a half-cent in the same period. In terms of raw dollars, intermodal shippers saved an average of $800 per container on the spot market in the fourth quarter compared with truckload, and $870 per container on the contract market. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the average spot intermodal load saved $700 per container, with the contract load saving $925 per container. Intermodal will follow truckload recovery Two of the top US domestic intermodal providers said the market did not turn around enough in the fourth quarter to give them pricing leverage, but it will once the truckload market rebounds. Based on past cycles, truckload spot markets tend to move first, followed by truckload contract rates, and then intermodal prices shift higher once shippers begin to feel capacity constraints or budget pressure. “[It’ll take] a little more time before we see intermodal prices catch up to what we expect in truckload,” said Mark Rourke, CEO of Schneider, on a Jan. 29 earnings call. Jim Filter, executive vice president of Schneider, said the company will capitalize on intermodal opportunities when the truckload market improves and “inventory levels are starting to be replenished.” The top US intermodal provider, J.B. Hunt, also did not call for an immediate rise in intermodal prices. “We’re a little bit hesitant to suggest that we think there’s some big pricing opportunity, but we will be quick to identify when we see the market shift,” Darren Field, president of J.B. Hunt’s intermodal division, said on a Jan. 15 earnings call. Shippers have told the Journal of Commerce that there are some minor rate increases on west-to-east rail freight, particularly originating in Southern California, but pricing remains flattish in other origins such as the Pacific Northwest and Mexico. Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com . The data behind the Contract ISI and Spot ISI is available to Journal of Commerce subscribers with a Gold-tier subscription.

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Spot intermodal savings spiked in Q4, but providers remain cautious

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Multiple local sources told the Journal of Commerce the escalating unrest that entered its fifth day Wednesday has brought all port operations, including vessel berthing and cargo clearance, to a halt. </div>

Multiple local sources told the Journal of Commerce the escalating unrest that entered its fifth day Wednesday has brought all port operations, including vessel berthing and cargo clearance, to a halt. 

<div class="phx-topic">Mainline and feeder operators covering trades out of Bangladesh are reporting serious supply chain disruptions from near week-long strike action and protests by dockers and employees at Chittagong Port, the country's chief gateway. The workforce is pushing back against a recent government decision to hand over Chittagong’s busiest box terminal, the New Mooring Container Terminal (NCL), to DP World under a long-term lease deal. Multiple local sources told the Journal of Commerce the escalating unrest that entered its fifth day Wednesday has brought all port operations, including vessel berthing and cargo clearance, to a halt. “There is a full operational standstill at the moment and it’s going to be chaotic for some time even after resumption of services,” said a feeder line executive who did not want to be identified. <h3>Approximately 40 ships said to be at anchorage </h3>Mainline carriers, including Maersk and Ocean Network Express (ONE), have warned customers about potential shipping risks for their freight as the situation remains in a state of flux. “Operations within the port, including the movement of trucks between terminals, have been completely suspended,” a spokesperson for Maersk told the Journal of Commerce. “Maersk is closely monitoring the ongoing strike at Chittagong [Chattogram] Port and is in constant communication with the relevant port and government to understand the situation and its implications for cargo operations.” Maersk commands about 30% of Bangladeshi containerized trade, according to anecdotal industry data. Singapore-based ONE said in a customer advisory the deteriorating situation could hobble export and import trade through Chittagong, adding “it is keeping an eye on the developing port situation.” A Chittagong-based ship agent who spoke with the Journal of Commerce estimated the number of ships waiting at anchorage to enter the port at about 40 as of Wednesday afternoon local time and cargo stranded at the dock at approximately 10,000 TEUs. The agent also noted that off-dock storage yards are holding large export volumes as freight vehicles continue to accumulate in queues outside the port to drop off boxes. Chittagong handled 3.4 million TEUs in 2025, up 4% year over year, according to available data. Contact Bency Mathew at <a href="mailto:bencyvmathew@gmail.com">bencyvmathew@gmail.com</a>. </div>

Mainline and feeder operators covering trades out of Bangladesh are reporting serious supply chain disruptions from near week-long strike action and protests by dockers and employees at Chittagong Port, the country's chief gateway. The workforce is pushing back against a recent government decision to hand over Chittagong’s busiest box terminal, the New Mooring Container Terminal (NCL), to DP World under a long-term lease deal. Multiple local sources told the Journal of Commerce the escalating unrest that entered its fifth day Wednesday has brought all port operations, including vessel berthing and cargo clearance, to a halt. “There is a full operational standstill at the moment and it’s going to be chaotic for some time even after resumption of services,” said a feeder line executive who did not want to be identified. Approximately 40 ships said to be at anchorage Mainline carriers, including Maersk and Ocean Network Express (ONE), have warned customers about potential shipping risks for their freight as the situation remains in a state of flux. “Operations within the port, including the movement of trucks between terminals, have been completely suspended,” a spokesperson for Maersk told the Journal of Commerce. “Maersk is closely monitoring the ongoing strike at Chittagong [Chattogram] Port and is in constant communication with the relevant port and government to understand the situation and its implications for cargo operations.” Maersk commands about 30% of Bangladeshi containerized trade, according to anecdotal industry data. Singapore-based ONE said in a customer advisory the deteriorating situation could hobble export and import trade through Chittagong, adding “it is keeping an eye on the developing port situation.” A Chittagong-based ship agent who spoke with the Journal of Commerce estimated the number of ships waiting at anchorage to enter the port at about 40 as of Wednesday afternoon local time and cargo stranded at the dock at approximately 10,000 TEUs. The agent also noted that off-dock storage yards are holding large export volumes as freight vehicles continue to accumulate in queues outside the port to drop off boxes. Chittagong handled 3.4 million TEUs in 2025, up 4% year over year, according to available data. Contact Bency Mathew at bencyvmathew@gmail.com .

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Labor strike at Chittagong Port cripples Bangladesh container flows

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