<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The MSC-Shell deal shows that commercially viable solutions for zero-emission fuels are a long way from being available at scale.</div>

The MSC-Shell deal shows that commercially viable solutions for zero-emission fuels are a long way from being available at scale.

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<div>Mediterranean Shipping Co. and oil major Shell will collaborate on developing technologies designed to produce zero-emission “fuels of the future” as the container shipping sector continues to push research as the best path to decarbonization.The two companies Friday said they’ve signed a long-term memorandum of understanding (MOU), three weeks after MSC chief Soren Toft said global regulators <a>were not being ambitious enough in tackling decarbonization</a> or quick enough in backing private sector research and development of alternative fuels.The move further demonstrates that commercially viable solutions for zero-emission fuels are a long way from being available at scale.“MSC’s efforts to decarbonize...

Mediterranean Shipping Co. and oil major Shell will collaborate on developing technologies designed to produce zero-emission “fuels of the future” as the container shipping sector continues to push research as the best path to decarbonization. The two companies Friday said they’ve signed a long-term memorandum of understanding (MOU), three weeks after MSC chief Soren Toft said global regulators were not being ambitious enough in tackling decarbonization or quick enough in backing private sector research and development of alternative fuels. The move further demonstrates that commercially viable solutions for zero-emission fuels are a long way from being available at scale. “MSC’s efforts to decarbonize include strong partnerships with a range of companies across the industry," Bud Darr, executive vice president, maritime policy and government affairs, MSC Group, said in a statement. “This partnership with Shell is a great example of the type of commitment that is needed to catalyze low-carbon solutions for the shipping sector.” The MOU is wide-ranging, with technical and commercial teams from MSC and Shell seeking to “develop and deploy net-zero solutions such as zero-emission fuels of the future and the technologies that will enable them, including fuel cells, with the ambition of contributing towards a zero-carbon flexi-fuel concept vessel.” Those potential fuels include hydrogen-derived fuels and methanol. Shifting from fossil fuel-based liquefied natural gas (LNG) to bio-LNG or synthetic variants will also be considered. “Together, the partners will explore opportunities for MSC to use LNG in its fleet, as the lowest emissions fuel widely available today,” the statement said. “They will also consider future pathways, including methane-slip abatement technologies that will further bring down LNG’s emissions.” It’s not the first collaboration between MSC and Shell, as the two have worked together on bunkering biofuels and low-sulfur fuels over the past decade. “Shell wants to play a central role in the transition to net zero,” Melissa Williams, president of Shell Marine, said in the statement. “Partnering with our customers to develop new technologies and fuels will help accelerate progress.” Carriers push R&D fund The deal with Shell should come as no surprise, after Toft late last month told the International Association of Ports and Harbors (IAPH) World Ports Conference that collaboration with all stakeholders in the shipping industry was necessary to achieve decarbonization. MSC and other carriers have continued to push research as the best path for a carbon-free future, touting a proposed $5 billion R&D fund backed by the World Shipping Council (WSC). “To reach that ultimate goal of complete decarbonization, we must look at a set of solutions,” Darr said in Friday’s statement. “We need significant advances in research and development and fuel development.” The $5 billion R&D fund was raised at the mid-June meeting of the International Maritime Organization’s Marine Environment Protection Committee meeting (MEPC 76), but despite lengthy discussions, the matter was pushed back to later this year. Contact Kevin Saville at kevin.saville@ihsmarkit.com and follow him on Twitter: @KevinSaville84 .

Container lines

MSC, Shell link up to develop zero-emission fuels

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">A surge in tariff-driven frontloading from Asia to North America earlier in the year led to a wait-and-see approach from US importers, resulting in weaker demand.</div>

A surge in tariff-driven frontloading from Asia to North America earlier in the year led to a wait-and-see approach from US importers, resulting in weaker demand.

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<div class="phx-topic">Weak demand on the trans-Pacific and an oversupply of shipping capacity pulled down rate levels and dragged Ocean Network Express (ONE) to an $88 million loss in its fiscal third quarter that ended Dec. 31, the carrier said Friday. It was the Singapore-based liner’s first quarterly loss of its current financial year as a surge in US tariff-driven frontloading from Asia to North America earlier in the year led to a wait-and-see approach from US importers, resulting in weaker demand. ONE’s financial year runs from April to March. ”Our Q3 FY2025 results reflect a challenging operating environment as we continue to navigate the complexities of the current global landscape,” ONE CEO Jeremy Nixon said in a statement. “Although market dynamics have impacted our performance during the quarter, we remain focused on disciplined capacity management, cost control and ongoing network optimization to enhance operational resilience,” Nixon added. A persistent increase in container ship supply and slowing demand eroded freight rates on both the trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe trades. Data from PIERS, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, shows US containerized imports from China in October declined 16% year over year, November imports fell18.2% and December was down 22.3%. This led to sharp year-over-year declines across ONE’s four main earnings metrics in its fiscal third quarter. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="3fc7098b-efc8-4b40-945d-b76f29f9698c"></dynamic-object></div>Revenue from the period fell 16% to just over $4 billion, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) was down 66% at $536 million; and an EBIT loss of $84 million was recorded, along with the $88 million net loss. <h3>Utilization falls on excess supply </h3>The oversupply of capacity could be seen in a drop in ONE’s volume and ship utilization during the fiscal quarter. Trans-Pacific volume of 678,000 TEUs was down 5% both year over year and compared to its second fiscal quarter. Utilization of 90% continued a steady decline over the last financial year when ships were 100% utilized. On Asia-Europe, demand dropped off after Golden Week at the beginning of October, though volume of 444,000 TEUs, while down 11% compared to fiscal Q2, was up 6% year over year. Still, an excess in market supply saw ship utilization falling sharply to 81%, down from 91% in the first half. For the first nine months of its financial year, ONE revenue of $12.5 billion was down 18% year over year, while EBITDA of $2 billion was down from $5.2 billion in the previous fiscal nine months. EBIT of $236 million was down from $3.6 billion and the carrier recorded a $283 million net profit in the most recent nine months compared to the $3.9 billion in the previous year. ONE expects demand and rates to improve “modestly” through its fourth quarter from January through March and has made a slight upwards adjustment to its full-year 2025/26 forecast. The carrier is now expecting full-year revenue of $16.6 billion (previously $16.5 billion), EBITDA of $2.7 billion ($2.6 billion) and EBIT of $300 million ($250 million), with net profit remaining at $310 million. The forecasted earnings reflect the enormous correction facing ocean carriers compared to last year. In its 2024/25 financial year, ONE posted revenue of $19.2 billion, EBITDA of $5.9 billion, EBIT of $3.8 billion and a net profit of $4.2 billion. Still, maritime consultant Drewry has upgraded its financial year 2025 profit forecast from $20 billion to $32 billion following “better than expected” third-quarter results from the carriers and has raised the outlook for 2026 from a $10 billion loss to a $1 billion profit. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Weak demand on the trans-Pacific and an oversupply of shipping capacity pulled down rate levels and dragged Ocean Network Express (ONE) to an $88 million loss in its fiscal third quarter that ended Dec. 31, the carrier said Friday. It was the Singapore-based liner’s first quarterly loss of its current financial year as a surge in US tariff-driven frontloading from Asia to North America earlier in the year led to a wait-and-see approach from US importers, resulting in weaker demand. ONE’s financial year runs from April to March. ”Our Q3 FY2025 results reflect a challenging operating environment as we continue to navigate the complexities of the current global landscape,” ONE CEO Jeremy Nixon said in a statement. “Although market dynamics have impacted our performance during the quarter, we remain focused on disciplined capacity management, cost control and ongoing network optimization to enhance operational resilience,” Nixon added. A persistent increase in container ship supply and slowing demand eroded freight rates on both the trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe trades. Data from PIERS, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, shows US containerized imports from China in October declined 16% year over year, November imports fell18.2% and December was down 22.3%. This led to sharp year-over-year declines across ONE’s four main earnings metrics in its fiscal third quarter. Revenue from the period fell 16% to just over $4 billion, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) was down 66% at $536 million; and an EBIT loss of $84 million was recorded, along with the $88 million net loss. Utilization falls on excess supply The oversupply of capacity could be seen in a drop in ONE’s volume and ship utilization during the fiscal quarter. Trans-Pacific volume of 678,000 TEUs was down 5% both year over year and compared to its second fiscal quarter. Utilization of 90% continued a steady decline over the last financial year when ships were 100% utilized. On Asia-Europe, demand dropped off after Golden Week at the beginning of October, though volume of 444,000 TEUs, while down 11% compared to fiscal Q2, was up 6% year over year. Still, an excess in market supply saw ship utilization falling sharply to 81%, down from 91% in the first half. For the first nine months of its financial year, ONE revenue of $12.5 billion was down 18% year over year, while EBITDA of $2 billion was down from $5.2 billion in the previous fiscal nine months. EBIT of $236 million was down from $3.6 billion and the carrier recorded a $283 million net profit in the most recent nine months compared to the $3.9 billion in the previous year. ONE expects demand and rates to improve “modestly” through its fourth quarter from January through March and has made a slight upwards adjustment to its full-year 2025/26 forecast. The carrier is now expecting full-year revenue of $16.6 billion (previously $16.5 billion), EBITDA of $2.7 billion ($2.6 billion) and EBIT of $300 million ($250 million), with net profit remaining at $310 million. The forecasted earnings reflect the enormous correction facing ocean carriers compared to last year. In its 2024/25 financial year, ONE posted revenue of $19.2 billion, EBITDA of $5.9 billion, EBIT of $3.8 billion and a net profit of $4.2 billion. Still, maritime consultant Drewry has upgraded its financial year 2025 profit forecast from $20 billion to $32 billion following “better than expected” third-quarter results from the carriers and has raised the outlook for 2026 from a $10 billion loss to a $1 billion profit. Contact Greg Knowler at  greg.knowler@spglobal.com . 

Asia-Europe

Trans-Pacific

Container Shipping News

Maritime

Frontloading drags ONE to a loss in its fiscal third quarter

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The decision nullifies Hong Kong-based Hutchison’s ability to operate the Balboa and Christobal ports that bookend the Panama Canal and clouds its attempt to sell its global terminals portfolio.</div>

The decision nullifies Hong Kong-based Hutchison’s ability to operate the Balboa and Christobal ports that bookend the Panama Canal and clouds its attempt to sell its global terminals portfolio.

<div class="phx-topic">The Panama Supreme Court late Thursday ruled that the longstanding leases allowing CK Hutchison to operate two marine terminals that bookend the Panama Canal are unconstitutional, further clouding an attempt to sell its global terminals portfolio. The decision nullifies Hong Kong-based Hutchison’s ability to operate the Balboa and Christobal ports and represents a victory for US President Donald Trump, who has pressured Panama to end the leases over what he claims is China’s outsized influence on the canal’s operations via the terminals. The Trump administration has called the concession bidding process unfair.Hutchison had already agreed to sell the two terminals to a consortium of BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners and Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC) subsidiary Terminal Investments Limited (TiL) as part of a $22.8 billion sale of its 43 terminal operations worldwide. But the deal has run into opposition from Beijing over ties between Trump and BlackRock leadership. As a way around that opposition, Hutchison last summer confirmed it was in talks with a “major strategic investor from China.” China’s involvement as part of the buying consortium would likely draw Trump’s attention again. Hutchison said in a statement the court’s decision was “inconsistent with the relevant legal framework and the law that approved the contract” enabling its operation of the terminals. The company said the bidding process that secured its concessions for the facilities was transparent. CK Hutchison can try to delay the Panama court decision by seeking a clarification on the ruling. But ultimately, the Panamanian government will seek an interim operator for the two terminals and then decide whether to put their operating the lease out for tender. Hutchison’s concession for the Panama ports began in 1997 and was renewed for another 25-year lease in 2021. <h2>Potential Maersk involement </h2>Panama President José Raúl Mulino said in a statement that APMT Terminals, part of Maersk, has “shown a willingness” to operate the two terminals in the interim until a long-term lease is tendered. APMT said in a separate statement Friday that it would only take over operations if all legal requirements involving the Hutchison case were completed, and emphasized it isn’t involved in the Supreme Court ruling nor in future planning for the Balboa and Christobal terminals. Maersk in October <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/maersk-considering-investment-in-panamas-new-terminals-6100150">signaled its intent</a> to invest in two terminals the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/panama-canal-mulls-developing-corozal-to-allay-neutrality-fears-over-hutchison-deal-6023330">hopes to build</a> in Corozal, on the Pacific side of the canal, and near Colon on the Atlantic side. In April, Maersk <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/panama-canal-mulls-developing-corozal-to-allay-neutrality-fears-over-hutchison-deal-6023330">bought the Panama Canal Railway</a>, the short-line railroad that links the ports of Balboa and Colon. Maersk, which is the railway’s largest customer, also operates a logistics park in the country. Louis Sola, then chairman of the Federal Maritime Commission, told US senators during a January 2025 hearing that  US terminal operators did not get a fair shake in Panama due to corruption in the government. US-based SSA Marine, Singapore-based PSA and Taiwan-based Evergreen Terminal also have terminals in Panama. Contact Mark Szakonyi at <a href="mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com">mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The Panama Supreme Court late Thursday ruled that the longstanding leases allowing CK Hutchison to operate two marine terminals that bookend the Panama Canal are unconstitutional, further clouding an attempt to sell its global terminals portfolio. The decision nullifies Hong Kong-based Hutchison’s ability to operate the Balboa and Christobal ports and represents a victory for US President Donald Trump, who has pressured Panama to end the leases over what he claims is China’s outsized influence on the canal’s operations via the terminals. The Trump administration has called the concession bidding process unfair. Hutchison had already agreed to sell the two terminals to a consortium of BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners and Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC) subsidiary Terminal Investments Limited (TiL) as part of a $22.8 billion sale of its 43 terminal operations worldwide. But the deal has run into opposition from Beijing over ties between Trump and BlackRock leadership. As a way around that opposition, Hutchison last summer confirmed it was in talks with a “major strategic investor from China.” China’s involvement as part of the buying consortium would likely draw Trump’s attention again. Hutchison said in a statement the court’s decision was “inconsistent with the relevant legal framework and the law that approved the contract” enabling its operation of the terminals. The company said the bidding process that secured its concessions for the facilities was transparent. CK Hutchison can try to delay the Panama court decision by seeking a clarification on the ruling. But ultimately, the Panamanian government will seek an interim operator for the two terminals and then decide whether to put their operating the lease out for tender. Hutchison’s concession for the Panama ports began in 1997 and was renewed for another 25-year lease in 2021. Potential Maersk involement Panama President José Raúl Mulino said in a statement that APMT Terminals, part of Maersk, has “shown a willingness” to operate the two terminals in the interim until a long-term lease is tendered. APMT said in a separate statement Friday that it would only take over operations if all legal requirements involving the Hutchison case were completed, and emphasized it isn’t involved in the Supreme Court ruling nor in future planning for the Balboa and Christobal terminals. Maersk in October signaled its intent to invest in two terminals the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) hopes to build in Corozal, on the Pacific side of the canal, and near Colon on the Atlantic side. In April, Maersk bought the Panama Canal Railway , the short-line railroad that links the ports of Balboa and Colon. Maersk, which is the railway’s largest customer, also operates a logistics park in the country. Louis Sola, then chairman of the Federal Maritime Commission, told US senators during a January 2025 hearing that  US terminal operators did not get a fair shake in Panama due to corruption in the government. US-based SSA Marine, Singapore-based PSA and Taiwan-based Evergreen Terminal also have terminals in Panama. Contact Mark Szakonyi at  mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com .

Panama court voids CK Hutchison canal terminal leases

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">DiBella, nominated to be a commissioner last September, said her focus for the agency will be to support Trump’s push to restore the American maritime industry. </div>

DiBella, nominated to be a commissioner last September, said her focus for the agency will be to support Trump’s push to restore the American maritime industry.

<div class="phx-topic">Laura DiBella has been tapped by President Donald Trump as the new chairman of the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC), the agency said Thursday. DiBella said her focus for the FMC will be to support Trump’s push to restore the American maritime industry. <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/trump-taps-two-floridians-to-serve-on-the-fmc-6075573">DiBella was nominated to be a member of the FMC in September</a> to fill the remaining term of previous chairman Louis Sola, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/fmcs-sola-to-leave-agency-months-after-being-elevated-to-chairmans-slot-6031245">a two-term commissioner who left the agency in June</a>. DiBella was confirmed by the Senate in December and only sworn in three weeks ago to a term that expires in June 2028. DiBella’s experience includes serving as government affairs advisor for a Florida law firm and overseeing business development for Florida’s Department of Commerce. She was also the executive director for the Florida Harbor Pilots Association and the director of the Port of Fernandina. DiBella, in a statement from the FMC, said being tapped as the agency’s next chairman “is nothing short of a privilege” and that she intends to focus the commission on how it can implement Trump’s maritime agenda for the US. The five-member FMC still has one vacant seat, which is expected to be filled by Trump nominee Robert Harvey pending Senate confirmation. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Laura DiBella has been tapped by President Donald Trump as the new chairman of the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC), the agency said Thursday. DiBella said her focus for the FMC will be to support Trump’s push to restore the American maritime industry. DiBella was nominated to be a member of the FMC in September to fill the remaining term of previous chairman Louis Sola, a two-term commissioner who left the agency in June . DiBella was confirmed by the Senate in December and only sworn in three weeks ago to a term that expires in June 2028. DiBella’s experience includes serving as government affairs advisor for a Florida law firm and overseeing business development for Florida’s Department of Commerce. She was also the executive director for the Florida Harbor Pilots Association and the director of the Port of Fernandina. DiBella, in a statement from the FMC, said being tapped as the agency’s next chairman “is nothing short of a privilege” and that she intends to focus the commission on how it can implement Trump’s maritime agenda for the US. The five-member FMC still has one vacant seat, which is expected to be filled by Trump nominee Robert Harvey pending Senate confirmation. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

Trump elevates Laura DiBella to be FMC chairman

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The leading US truck brokerage said a rate spike due to winter weather does not signal a stronger trucking market, while international freight demand remains tepid.</div>

The leading US truck brokerage said a rate spike due to winter weather does not signal a stronger trucking market, while international freight demand remains tepid.

<div class="phx-topic">CH Robinson sees no near-term catalyst for US freight demand, with air and ocean rates likely remaining close to current levels and recent spikes in truck rates largely driven by winter weather. The truck brokerage and global forwarder, though, said its artificial intelligence (AI) initiatives continue to help it serve customers faster and gain market share. CH Robinson said Thursday its forwarding business saw an 8% year-over-year decline in ocean freight volumes for the fourth quarter of 2025, while its air freight tonnage declined 12.5%. Chief Executive David Bozeman said on an earnings conference call that <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ch-robinson-cautious-on-second-half-outlook-amid-trade-volatility-6053833">frontloading by shippers throughout 2025</a> led to a “more pronounced decline in demand after the Q3 peak season.” “International freight continues to be impacted by global trade policies,” Bozeman said. “The macro conditions for global transportation companies were difficult in Q4, and we are not impervious to these volume and rate dynamics.” With air and ocean rates also declining, adjusted gross profit for CH Robinson’s forwarding business fell 12.7% in the fourth quarter to $178 million. The company did see a higher profit margin in the forwarding business, which Bozeman said was due to the segment’s revenue management and use of a “cohesive, centralized model with standardized and lean AI-enabled processes.” As for any immediate post-holiday bump, CFO Damon Lee said that declines in ocean freight rates that started in the third quarter “continued into Q4 and we expect that to continue into Q1.” “So, Q1, starting out a little challenging, but Q4 ended a little challenging,” Lee added. <h3>No change in demand </h3>Despite the decline in the forwarding business, CH Robinson’s truck brokerage saw fourth-quarter gross profit increase slightly, helping it beat analysts’ profit estimates. CH Robinson reported a fourth-quarter net profit of $1.23 per share, versus a $1.13 consensus estimate, according to Capital IQ, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. The company said that its overall truck volume rose 1% during the fourth quarter, versus a 7.6% drop in volume for the period as measured by the Cass Freight Shipment Index. Bozeman, meanwhile, said <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/truckload-brokers-eye-human-technology-balance-as-ai-takes-hold-5876340">AI is automating many broker tasks</a>, adding that AI allowed CH Robinson to manage a recent spike in truckload rates without affecting margins. “Spot market costs for truckload capacity spiked during the last five weeks of the quarter due to a seasonal decline in capacity, three winter storms and incremental pressure from the cumulative [federal] enforcement of various commercial driver regulations,” Bozeman said. While truck spot rates can spike during winter weather, those spikes will abate through the first quarter while more drivers will also return to the road, Michael Castagnetto, president of CH Robinson’s truck brokerage, said on the call. “When you think about an actual market inflection, which we’ve all been trying to predict as an industry for the better part of three and a half years now, there wasn’t a material demand change during the quarter,” Castagnetto said. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto: michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

CH Robinson sees no near-term catalyst for US freight demand, with air and ocean rates likely remaining close to current levels and recent spikes in truck rates largely driven by winter weather. The truck brokerage and global forwarder, though, said its artificial intelligence (AI) initiatives continue to help it serve customers faster and gain market share. CH Robinson said Thursday its forwarding business saw an 8% year-over-year decline in ocean freight volumes for the fourth quarter of 2025, while its air freight tonnage declined 12.5%. Chief Executive David Bozeman said on an earnings conference call that frontloading by shippers throughout 2025 led to a “more pronounced decline in demand after the Q3 peak season.” “International freight continues to be impacted by global trade policies,” Bozeman said. “The macro conditions for global transportation companies were difficult in Q4, and we are not impervious to these volume and rate dynamics.” With air and ocean rates also declining, adjusted gross profit for CH Robinson’s forwarding business fell 12.7% in the fourth quarter to $178 million. The company did see a higher profit margin in the forwarding business, which Bozeman said was due to the segment’s revenue management and use of a “cohesive, centralized model with standardized and lean AI-enabled processes.” As for any immediate post-holiday bump, CFO Damon Lee said that declines in ocean freight rates that started in the third quarter “continued into Q4 and we expect that to continue into Q1.” “So, Q1, starting out a little challenging, but Q4 ended a little challenging,” Lee added. No change in demand Despite the decline in the forwarding business, CH Robinson’s truck brokerage saw fourth-quarter gross profit increase slightly, helping it beat analysts’ profit estimates. CH Robinson reported a fourth-quarter net profit of $1.23 per share, versus a $1.13 consensus estimate, according to Capital IQ, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. The company said that its overall truck volume rose 1% during the fourth quarter, versus a 7.6% drop in volume for the period as measured by the Cass Freight Shipment Index. Bozeman, meanwhile, said AI is automating many broker tasks , adding that AI allowed CH Robinson to manage a recent spike in truckload rates without affecting margins. “Spot market costs for truckload capacity spiked during the last five weeks of the quarter due to a seasonal decline in capacity, three winter storms and incremental pressure from the cumulative [federal] enforcement of various commercial driver regulations,” Bozeman said. While truck spot rates can spike during winter weather, those spikes will abate through the first quarter while more drivers will also return to the road, Michael Castagnetto, president of CH Robinson’s truck brokerage, said on the call. “When you think about an actual market inflection, which we’ve all been trying to predict as an industry for the better part of three and a half years now, there wasn’t a material demand change during the quarter,” Castagnetto said. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Forwarding

Truck brokers

CH Robinson seeing muted freight market to start 2026

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Amid new threats from Houthi militants and the arrival of a US carrier strike group in the region, carriers — and their customers — are once again wondering when they will be able to safely transit the Red Sea/Suez route.</div>

Amid new threats from Houthi militants and the arrival of a US carrier strike group in the region, carriers — and their customers — are once again wondering when they will be able to safely transit the Red Sea/Suez route.

<div class="phx-topic">Shippers on the trades linking Asia to Europe and the US East Coast hoping for a resumption of Red Sea and Suez Canal transits remain at the mercy of factors out of their control as the regional security situation deteriorates anew. A US carrier strike group has arrived in the Gulf of Oman to back up another threat by President Donald Trump to take military action against Iran, this time over the lack of progress in a nuclear deal. Tehran has vowed to respond to any attacks, which may spill over into the southern Red Sea controlled by Iran-supported Houthi militants. And that leaves carriers, and their customers, once again wondering when they will be able to safely transit the Red Sea/Suez route, more than two years after the Houthis began their attacks on commercial shipping. “Shippers are faced with the greatest challenges out there right now,” said Destine Ozuygur, senior market analyst at rate benchmarking platform Xeneta. “They’re at the bottom of the operational decision funnel, which leaves them more vulnerable to shocks or setbacks than any other stakeholder in the equation.” Shippers, Ozuygur told the Journal of Commerce, are forced to create a procurement strategy that “rests on their ability to surmise the behavior of carriers, insurers, politicians [and] militias.” “Even with a complex framework of decision-making tools, operational insights and the best data visibility out there, we can’t confidently predict the next six weeks, let alone the next six days in a scenario like this,” she said. The complexity that confounds shipping analysis was illustrated in developments this month. After two years of diversions around southern Africa, expectations that head-haul Suez voyages would likely resume after the Lunar New Year gathered momentum when Maersk on Jan. 15 announced that <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/maersk-set-to-resume-regular-suez-transits-on-india-usec-mecl-loop-sources-6152441">a Middle East-US East Coast service would be routed through the Red Sea</a>. But the ink was barely dry on that announcement when CMA CGM, one of the main Red Sea users over the past two years, said it would <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/cma-cgm-backs-off-plans-to-resume-suez-transits-for-asia-europe-services-6155264">scale back plans to send three Asia-Europe westbound services through the Suez</a>, citing the “complex and uncertain international context.” A week later, the Iran-backed Houthi released two videos warning that <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/latest-houthi-threat-renews-questions-about-suez-route-as-us-iran-tensions-rise-6158709">ship attacks could resume “soon,”</a> just days before the US carrier strike group led by the USS Abraham Lincoln arrived with Trump’s new attack threat on Tehran. <h3>Frustrating turn of events </h3>It has been a frustrating turn of events for shippers eager to return to the shorter Suez route. The Asia-based supply chain director for a European retailer said his company was planning for the resumption of Suez transits after Lunar New Year, which begins Feb. 17, following talks with carriers that were confident head-haul services would gradually increase. That confidence was fueled by the absence of any Houthi attacks since November, following the Israel-Hamas ceasefire the month before. “But the situation has changed again, and we are now not ready to put cargo through the Suez,” the source told the Journal of Commerce, adding that their insurance broker said cargo on ships routed through the Red Sea would not be covered in the event of an attack. Another European importer said his cargo was covered for Red Sea transits, but the high cost of premiums was prohibitive, something that remains a significant hurdle for both carriers and shippers. Marine insurance provider Allianz Commercial told the Journal of Commerce this week that cost increases for ships transiting areas requiring war insurance depended on the assessment of the Joint War Committee in London, comprised of underwriting representatives from Lloyd’s and the International Underwriting Association. “The amount of the additional premiums can be very dynamic and is evaluated by individual underwriters, typically per vessel per voyage, and reflects current developments in individual shipping areas,” a spokesperson for Allianz said. But insurance issues extend beyond costs, according to Andy Gillespie, senior logistics advisor for supply chain management firm WOWL. Shippers sending cargo through the Red Sea would need to alert insurers and obtain specific rider coverage for shipments, but he said carrier alliance networks muddied the waters. “Think of this: The carrier I book and ship with is not transiting Suez but my container with them is on a partner’s vessel that is transiting Suez,” Gillespie said. “It shouldn’t be an issue to get the riders, but shippers better be alert to which shipments will be impacted. Carriers should be communicating the routings to customers.” <h3>Security concerns make visibility difficult </h3>But that kind of visibility from carriers would be difficult to provide under the fluid security situation, believes James Hookham, director of the Global Shippers Forum. “Whether shippers and forwarders will be able to pick a ship that transits the Suez will depend on the lines publishing a schedule of their intended routes, and that might be too much information in the public domain at this time,” he said. Ozuygur also had her doubts that shippers would have the visibility they need over voyages to establish their preferred strategies of shorter transit times/high risk compared with longer transits and lower risks. “Then they must reconcile that against whether they believe the carrier will follow through on that promise, and then finally have a plan B and a plan C in place if things go sideways,” she said. “That means having a close eye on service and voyage-level data across the entire network, access to expert analysis, and visibility into carriers’ track records of transparency, communication and reliability,” Ozuygur added. According to Drewry’s Red Sea Diversion Tracker, the number of container ships sailing via the Suez Canal jumped 69% to 61 in the two-week period ending Jan. 25, from a low base of 36 transits in the previous two-week period, as large carriers and smaller niche liners balanced the changing safety risk and the potential commercial benefit of the shorter route. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Shippers on the trades linking Asia to Europe and the US East Coast hoping for a resumption of Red Sea and Suez Canal transits remain at the mercy of factors out of their control as the regional security situation deteriorates anew. A US carrier strike group has arrived in the Gulf of Oman to back up another threat by President Donald Trump to take military action against Iran, this time over the lack of progress in a nuclear deal. Tehran has vowed to respond to any attacks, which may spill over into the southern Red Sea controlled by Iran-supported Houthi militants. And that leaves carriers, and their customers, once again wondering when they will be able to safely transit the Red Sea/Suez route, more than two years after the Houthis began their attacks on commercial shipping. “Shippers are faced with the greatest challenges out there right now,” said Destine Ozuygur, senior market analyst at rate benchmarking platform Xeneta. “They’re at the bottom of the operational decision funnel, which leaves them more vulnerable to shocks or setbacks than any other stakeholder in the equation.” Shippers, Ozuygur told the Journal of Commerce, are forced to create a procurement strategy that “rests on their ability to surmise the behavior of carriers, insurers, politicians [and] militias.” “Even with a complex framework of decision-making tools, operational insights and the best data visibility out there, we can’t confidently predict the next six weeks, let alone the next six days in a scenario like this,” she said. The complexity that confounds shipping analysis was illustrated in developments this month. After two years of diversions around southern Africa, expectations that head-haul Suez voyages would likely resume after the Lunar New Year gathered momentum when Maersk on Jan. 15 announced that a Middle East-US East Coast service would be routed through the Red Sea . But the ink was barely dry on that announcement when CMA CGM, one of the main Red Sea users over the past two years, said it would scale back plans to send three Asia-Europe westbound services through the Suez , citing the “complex and uncertain international context.” A week later, the Iran-backed Houthi released two videos warning that ship attacks could resume “soon,” just days before the US carrier strike group led by the USS Abraham Lincoln arrived with Trump’s new attack threat on Tehran. Frustrating turn of events It has been a frustrating turn of events for shippers eager to return to the shorter Suez route. The Asia-based supply chain director for a European retailer said his company was planning for the resumption of Suez transits after Lunar New Year, which begins Feb. 17, following talks with carriers that were confident head-haul services would gradually increase. That confidence was fueled by the absence of any Houthi attacks since November, following the Israel-Hamas ceasefire the month before. “But the situation has changed again, and we are now not ready to put cargo through the Suez,” the source told the Journal of Commerce, adding that their insurance broker said cargo on ships routed through the Red Sea would not be covered in the event of an attack. Another European importer said his cargo was covered for Red Sea transits, but the high cost of premiums was prohibitive, something that remains a significant hurdle for both carriers and shippers. Marine insurance provider Allianz Commercial told the Journal of Commerce this week that cost increases for ships transiting areas requiring war insurance depended on the assessment of the Joint War Committee in London, comprised of underwriting representatives from Lloyd’s and the International Underwriting Association. “The amount of the additional premiums can be very dynamic and is evaluated by individual underwriters, typically per vessel per voyage, and reflects current developments in individual shipping areas,” a spokesperson for Allianz said. But insurance issues extend beyond costs, according to Andy Gillespie, senior logistics advisor for supply chain management firm WOWL. Shippers sending cargo through the Red Sea would need to alert insurers and obtain specific rider coverage for shipments, but he said carrier alliance networks muddied the waters. “Think of this: The carrier I book and ship with is not transiting Suez but my container with them is on a partner’s vessel that is transiting Suez,” Gillespie said. “It shouldn’t be an issue to get the riders, but shippers better be alert to which shipments will be impacted. Carriers should be communicating the routings to customers.” Security concerns make visibility difficult But that kind of visibility from carriers would be difficult to provide under the fluid security situation, believes James Hookham, director of the Global Shippers Forum. “Whether shippers and forwarders will be able to pick a ship that transits the Suez will depend on the lines publishing a schedule of their intended routes, and that might be too much information in the public domain at this time,” he said. Ozuygur also had her doubts that shippers would have the visibility they need over voyages to establish their preferred strategies of shorter transit times/high risk compared with longer transits and lower risks. “Then they must reconcile that against whether they believe the carrier will follow through on that promise, and then finally have a plan B and a plan C in place if things go sideways,” she said. “That means having a close eye on service and voyage-level data across the entire network, access to expert analysis, and visibility into carriers’ track records of transparency, communication and reliability,” Ozuygur added. According to Drewry’s Red Sea Diversion Tracker, the number of container ships sailing via the Suez Canal jumped 69% to 61 in the two-week period ending Jan. 25, from a low base of 36 transits in the previous two-week period, as large carriers and smaller niche liners balanced the changing safety risk and the potential commercial benefit of the shorter route. Contact Greg Knowler at  greg.knowler@spglobal.com . 

Shippers shoulder burden of Red Sea uncertainty as regional tensions rise again

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