<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Japan's car companies, hit hard by the sharp rise in the value of the yen, will not give up their sh</div>

Japan's car companies, hit hard by the sharp rise in the value of the yen, will not give up their sh

<div>Japan's car companies, hit hard by the sharp rise in the value of the yen, will not give up their share of the U.S. market without a bitter fight, Chrysler Corp. Chairman Lee Iacocca predicted.The Japanese have fought so hard for this market and made big inroads," Mr. Iacocca said. They're not giving up that beachhead quietly."Mr. Iacocca said the need to control Japan's trade surplus with the United States, about half of which comes from auto exports, also has become a problem for both countries and should be solved with a cooperative trade policy.Japanese automakers, which account for about...

Japan's car companies, hit hard by the sharp rise in the value of the yen, will not give up their share of the U.S. market without a bitter fight, Chrysler Corp. Chairman Lee Iacocca predicted. The Japanese have fought so hard for this market and made big inroads," Mr. Iacocca said. They're not giving up that beachhead quietly."Mr. Iacocca said the need to control Japan's trade surplus with the United States, about half of which comes from auto exports, also has become a problem for both countries and should be solved with a cooperative trade policy. Japanese automakers, which account for about a fourth of the cars sold in the United States, have seen their profits eroded as the value of the yen has risen about 60 percent against the dollar over the past two years. That has cut into sales by making Japanese products more expensive in the United States. The Japanese Automobile Manufacturers Association reported Friday that Japan's motor vehicle exports fell a record 15.1 percent in November from a year earlier. That followed a 9.4 percent decline in October over the same month the previous year and marked the fifth consecutive monthly decline. Meanwhile, the strengthening of the yen has reduced the value of the dollars the Japanese manufacturers get for the cars they sell in the United States. A further increase in the yen's worth could erase U.S. profits for Japan's car companies, Mr. Iacocca predicted in an interview last week. He said the new U.S. tax law has helped the Japanese by lowering their corporate income tax rates and putting more loose dollars into the jeans of the American consumer, who's buying mostly foreign." The law also took away the investment tax credit from U.S. manufacturers, something the Japanese did not have to give up, he said.

Maritime

IACOCCA SEES JAPANESE FIGHTING FOR US MARKET

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The two Class I railroads will collaborate on a service to replace the trucking leg for goods moving from CN’s Memphis terminal to the Music City.</div>

The two Class I railroads will collaborate on a service to replace the trucking leg for goods moving from CN’s Memphis terminal to the Music City.

Feature image

<div class="phx-topic">Canadian National Railway and CSX Transportation are planning a new international intermodal service from Canada’s West Coast into Nashville, expanding shipper options outside of the US Southeast. The signing of a memorandum by the two Class I railroads paves the way for a more direct, and thus, faster service and another option beyond routing in and out of the port of Savannah. The move is the latest integration between railroads amid <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/up-looks-to-create-first-coast-to-coast-railroad-with-85-billion-ns-deal-6052288">the planned transcontinental merger of Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern</a>, which would create the largest North American railroad. CN offers service from Canada’s West Coast into Memphis but not into Nashville. The service would replace an approximately 200-mile truck trip for international containers from Memphis to Nashville, using CSX tracks. In an average year, about 20,000 ocean containers are railed from Vancouver to Memphis, according to a Journal of Commerce analysis of data from the US Surface Transportation Board, but with very little export cargo moving in the other direction. It’s unclear how many of those containers remain in Memphis versus getting drayed to Nashville. CSX’s Nashville terminal currently has inbound international service from the ports of Los Angeles, Seattle-Tacoma, Savannah and Charleston, with outbound service to Savannah and Charleston. In August, CSX announced plans to <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/bnsf-csx-unveil-new-joint-intermodal-lanes-in-aftermath-of-up-ns-merger-6067789">develop international intermodal routes with BNSF Railway from the West Coast to the Southeast</a>. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a> </div>

Canadian National Railway and CSX Transportation are planning a new international intermodal service from Canada’s West Coast into Nashville, expanding shipper options outside of the US Southeast. The signing of a memorandum by the two Class I railroads paves the way for a more direct, and thus, faster service and another option beyond routing in and out of the port of Savannah. The move is the latest integration between railroads amid the planned transcontinental merger of Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern , which would create the largest North American railroad. CN offers service from Canada’s West Coast into Memphis but not into Nashville. The service would replace an approximately 200-mile truck trip for international containers from Memphis to Nashville, using CSX tracks. In an average year, about 20,000 ocean containers are railed from Vancouver to Memphis, according to a Journal of Commerce analysis of data from the US Surface Transportation Board, but with very little export cargo moving in the other direction. It’s unclear how many of those containers remain in Memphis versus getting drayed to Nashville. CSX’s Nashville terminal currently has inbound international service from the ports of Los Angeles, Seattle-Tacoma, Savannah and Charleston, with outbound service to Savannah and Charleston. In August, CSX announced plans to develop international intermodal routes with BNSF Railway from the West Coast to the Southeast . Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com

North American ports

North-American rail

Intermodal providers

CN-CSX joint service to connect west Canada and Nashville

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">US retailers increased September and October import volume expectations significantly, but it will not be enough to meet 2024 levels. </div>

US retailers increased September and October import volume expectations significantly, but it will not be enough to meet 2024 levels.

<div class="phx-topic">US retailers on Tuesday said they are bringing in more imports than they projected a month ago but are still on track to ship less in the fourth quarter than they did in the same period last year. According to the latest Global Port Tracker (GPT) from Hackett Associates on behalf of the National Retail Federation (NRF), inbound container volumes will fall 6.8% year over year in September, a sharp upward revision from the 19.4% drop <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-retailers-project-big-year-over-year-import-declines-to-close-out-2025-6060323">forecast a month ago</a>. That upward revision will equate to about 300,000 TEUs of additional imports compared with the previous projection. The improved-but-still-<a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ocean-carrier-profit-margins-earnings-outlook-for-2025-trimmed-further-6074809">downbeat outlook</a> for import volumes for the rest of the year comes after US importers <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/premier-alliance-service-halt-latest-sign-of-trans-pacific-demand-downturn-6076326">frontloaded imports for months</a> to avoid higher US tariffs and as retail sales slow. The year-over-year declines are also steeper because cargo owners front-loaded cargo last fall to avoid US East and Gulf Coast labor strikes. “Tariffs have had a significant impact on trade,” Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said in the latest GPT. “The trade outlook for the final months of the year is not optimistic.” Despite slower job growth and higher consumer inflation, US retail sales remain solid. US retail sales in July and June rose 0.5% year over year thanks in part to people buying vehicles to avoid higher prices resulting from new steel tariffs. US importers plan to bring about 290,000 TEUs less cargo in October, 420,000 TEUs less in November and 430,000 TEUs less in December than in the same months in 2024. Actual US laden container imports from Asia spiked 25.7% year over year in July as tariffs pushed importers to move peak season and holiday goods earlier than usual, according to PIERS, a Journal of Commerce sister product within S&amp;P Global. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="70970c23-b1c8-4e32-a007-d4c69ada36f8"></dynamic-object></div>“Retailers have stocked up as much as they can ahead of tariff increases,” Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the NRF, said in the latest GPT report. “But the uncertainty of US trade policy is making it impossible to make the long-term plans that are critical to future business success.” US retailers are keeping just enough stock in hand, holding about 1.3 months of inventory from January through June, according to the latest data from the US Census Bureau. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="d1f4c911-fe90-4716-8dd0-46a2d22dbd8b"></dynamic-object></div>Importers “are very cautious about holding on to inventory because of the tariffs,” a consultant who formerly held top logistics positions at two national retailers told the Journal of Commerce. “In certain sectors, demand is soft,” the consultant added. In addition, a number of businesses are reducing the inventory they carry because the tariff situation is so chaotic, a forwarder told the Journal of Commerce. The less inventory they carry, the less potential there is to be impacted by the tariff volatility, the forwarder said. Because Lunar New Year falls on Feb. 17 in 2026, rather than in January, there is less of an impetus for retailers to begin restocking in December. Even so, US retailers plan to import 19.1% less in January 2026 than a year prior, according to the GPT report. US retail sales in November and December will rise 4% year over year, compared to a 10-year compound annual growth rate of 5.2%, according to consultancy Bain &amp; Co. Contact Laura Robb at <a href="mailto:Laura.Robb@spglobal.com">laura.robb@spglobal.com</a>.  Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

US retailers on Tuesday said they are bringing in more imports than they projected a month ago but are still on track to ship less in the fourth quarter than they did in the same period last year. According to the latest Global Port Tracker (GPT) from Hackett Associates on behalf of the National Retail Federation (NRF), inbound container volumes will fall 6.8% year over year in September, a sharp upward revision from the 19.4% drop forecast a month ago . That upward revision will equate to about 300,000 TEUs of additional imports compared with the previous projection. The improved-but-still- downbeat outlook for import volumes for the rest of the year comes after US importers frontloaded imports for months to avoid higher US tariffs and as retail sales slow. The year-over-year declines are also steeper because cargo owners front-loaded cargo last fall to avoid US East and Gulf Coast labor strikes. “Tariffs have had a significant impact on trade,” Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said in the latest GPT. “The trade outlook for the final months of the year is not optimistic.” Despite slower job growth and higher consumer inflation, US retail sales remain solid. US retail sales in July and June rose 0.5% year over year thanks in part to people buying vehicles to avoid higher prices resulting from new steel tariffs. US importers plan to bring about 290,000 TEUs less cargo in October, 420,000 TEUs less in November and 430,000 TEUs less in December than in the same months in 2024. Actual US laden container imports from Asia spiked 25.7% year over year in July as tariffs pushed importers to move peak season and holiday goods earlier than usual, according to PIERS, a Journal of Commerce sister product within S&P Global. “Retailers have stocked up as much as they can ahead of tariff increases,” Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the NRF, said in the latest GPT report. “But the uncertainty of US trade policy is making it impossible to make the long-term plans that are critical to future business success.” US retailers are keeping just enough stock in hand, holding about 1.3 months of inventory from January through June, according to the latest data from the US Census Bureau. Importers “are very cautious about holding on to inventory because of the tariffs,” a consultant who formerly held top logistics positions at two national retailers told the Journal of Commerce. “In certain sectors, demand is soft,” the consultant added. In addition, a number of businesses are reducing the inventory they carry because the tariff situation is so chaotic, a forwarder told the Journal of Commerce. The less inventory they carry, the less potential there is to be impacted by the tariff volatility, the forwarder said. Because Lunar New Year falls on Feb. 17 in 2026, rather than in January, there is less of an impetus for retailers to begin restocking in December. Even so, US retailers plan to import 19.1% less in January 2026 than a year prior, according to the GPT report. US retail sales in November and December will rise 4% year over year, compared to a 10-year compound annual growth rate of 5.2%, according to consultancy Bain & Co. Contact Laura Robb at laura.robb@spglobal.com .  Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .

Forwarding

Trans-Pacific

Container Shipping News

US retailers upgrade import forecast but still expect Q4 decline

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The US trucking market is stable, and it’s likely to stay that way until demand increases truck utilization significantly, FTR said at its 2025 transportation conference. </div>

The US trucking market is stable, and it’s likely to stay that way until demand increases truck utilization significantly, FTR said at its 2025 transportation conference.

<div class="phx-topic">Stubborn US truck overcapacity is not likely to shift before 2027, prolonging shipper pricing power, according to FTR Transportation Intelligence. Excess capacity has become the norm in the truckload sector, Avery Vise, vice president of trucking at FTR, said Tuesday at the 2025 FTR Transportation Conference in Indianapolis. “There’s been a stabilization of the carrier population” after three years of low freight demand, Vise said. Despite some significant motor carrier closures, “we still have this real large overhang of very small carriers that for whatever reason is not exiting the market.” In August, the number of US truck drivers employed at fleets with one to five trucks was 39% higher than in March 2020, according to Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) data, Vise told the conference, which the Journal of Commerce attended virtually. That’s down from a 62% gain over March 2020 reported for July 2022, but still a substantial increase in capacity from pre-pandemic levels. The same data shows the number of drivers at carriers with 101 or more trucks down 1.1% in August from March 2020. There’s been a <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-truck-capacity-shifting-as-spot-rates-drop-5245829">long-term shift</a> of truck drivers from large carriers to <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/revised-us-payroll-numbers-underscore-truckload-market-shift-5965577">smaller operators</a>, Vise said. Despite predictions that more carriers are likely to be pushed out of the business by low rates, FTR does not expect the number to fall much further, absent an unexpected event or recession. ”We haven’t seen any real tightening in the market since 2024,” he said. “Not until we get to 2027 do we expect active truck utilization to be stronger than now to any significant degree.” Active truck utilization as measured by FTR has hovered between 92% and 94% since 2024. “From a carrier perspective, that means a lot more focus on cutting costs and getting much more productivity out of everything,” Vise said. With capacity stable, FTR does not expect the type of rate recovery many trucking companies would like to see. “We do see an increase in rates,” but not a strong one, Vise said. “It’s just going to inch along, falling below the levels of inflation. That may be one of the reason the utilization forecast is so weak.” FTR forecasts a 1.5% annualized gain in dry-van truckload contract rates in 2025, following a 3.1% drop in 2024, and a 1.2% gain in 2026. Spot dry-van rates are expected to rise 1.3% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, according to the research firm. <h3>Demand versus supply </h3>A missing demand catalyst, such as increased consumer spending on goods, is needed to tighten capacity, according to FTR. Without higher demand, there may be little room for motor carriers to cut much more capacity. Carriers still have debt and other obligations to meet, Vise noted. The Journal of Commerce Truckload Capacity Index (TCI), which measures truck counts at large, publicly owned carriers, increased for the first time in 11 quarters in the second quarter, rising 1.1 percentage points. That’s a sign some carriers are preparing for higher volumes in late 2025 and 2026. Some speakers at the conference believed cuts in supply, rather than increased demand, would drive a rate recovery for trucking. “I don’t think it’s going to be consumption that pulls us out (of the freight downturn), but it will be capacity,” said Matt Perry, senior vice president of account management at Werner Enterprises. Carriers with 200 or 300 trucks may be more at risk than smaller operators, he said. “There are a lot of companies that are one big accident, one customer loss away from not being able to continue,” Perry said. Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto://bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a></div>

Stubborn US truck overcapacity is not likely to shift before 2027, prolonging shipper pricing power, according to FTR Transportation Intelligence. Excess capacity has become the norm in the truckload sector, Avery Vise, vice president of trucking at FTR, said Tuesday at the 2025 FTR Transportation Conference in Indianapolis. “There’s been a stabilization of the carrier population” after three years of low freight demand, Vise said. Despite some significant motor carrier closures, “we still have this real large overhang of very small carriers that for whatever reason is not exiting the market.” In August, the number of US truck drivers employed at fleets with one to five trucks was 39% higher than in March 2020, according to Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) data, Vise told the conference, which the Journal of Commerce attended virtually. That’s down from a 62% gain over March 2020 reported for July 2022, but still a substantial increase in capacity from pre-pandemic levels. The same data shows the number of drivers at carriers with 101 or more trucks down 1.1% in August from March 2020. There’s been a long-term shift of truck drivers from large carriers to smaller operators , Vise said. Despite predictions that more carriers are likely to be pushed out of the business by low rates, FTR does not expect the number to fall much further, absent an unexpected event or recession. ”We haven’t seen any real tightening in the market since 2024,” he said. “Not until we get to 2027 do we expect active truck utilization to be stronger than now to any significant degree.” Active truck utilization as measured by FTR has hovered between 92% and 94% since 2024. “From a carrier perspective, that means a lot more focus on cutting costs and getting much more productivity out of everything,” Vise said. With capacity stable, FTR does not expect the type of rate recovery many trucking companies would like to see. “We do see an increase in rates,” but not a strong one, Vise said. “It’s just going to inch along, falling below the levels of inflation. That may be one of the reason the utilization forecast is so weak.” FTR forecasts a 1.5% annualized gain in dry-van truckload contract rates in 2025, following a 3.1% drop in 2024, and a 1.2% gain in 2026. Spot dry-van rates are expected to rise 1.3% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, according to the research firm. Demand versus supply A missing demand catalyst, such as increased consumer spending on goods, is needed to tighten capacity, according to FTR. Without higher demand, there may be little room for motor carriers to cut much more capacity. Carriers still have debt and other obligations to meet, Vise noted. The Journal of Commerce Truckload Capacity Index (TCI), which measures truck counts at large, publicly owned carriers, increased for the first time in 11 quarters in the second quarter, rising 1.1 percentage points. That’s a sign some carriers are preparing for higher volumes in late 2025 and 2026. Some speakers at the conference believed cuts in supply, rather than increased demand, would drive a rate recovery for trucking. “I don’t think it’s going to be consumption that pulls us out (of the freight downturn), but it will be capacity,” said Matt Perry, senior vice president of account management at Werner Enterprises. Carriers with 200 or 300 trucks may be more at risk than smaller operators, he said. “There are a lot of companies that are one big accident, one customer loss away from not being able to continue,” Perry said. Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com

Trucking News

Truckload

Surface

‘Excess’ truck capacity to linger through 2027: FTR

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Despite weakening supply-demand fundamentals, container vessel charter rates are rising and carriers are neither idling nor scrapping ships. </div>

Despite weakening supply-demand fundamentals, container vessel charter rates are rising and carriers are neither idling nor scrapping ships.

<div class="phx-topic">An odd disconnect has taken hold in container shipping that defies easy explanation but points to possible tectonic shifts in the global market. Fundamentals are deteriorating, but demand for tonnage remains robust. Carrier profits are rapidly disappearing in the face of dwindling volume growth, falling freight rates and an all-time-high order book that equates to nearly 30% of the existing fleet. However, charter rates and secondhand ship prices are rising, and carriers have not begun idling or scrapping vessels. “The reason is there is still a shortage of tonnage on the high seas,” a senior carrier executive told the Journal of Commerce. The executive, who asked not to be identified, and his peers say the diversification of containerized trade routes, a trend accelerated by US tariffs, is driving strong demand for tonnage, especially the smaller ships that have not seen the same growth as larger vessels. There is a “global restructuring of trade routes” underway, according to Jon Monroe, a veteran carrier, non-vessel-operating common carrier and technology executive who consults for forwarders. “Despite the insane capacity increase from new vessel introductions, carriers are keeping their charter vessels to service new growth markets,” he said. “China is pivoting to Central America, South America, Southeast Asia and of course Africa. And services are moving from direct, to hub-and-spoke networks requiring feeders for transshipments.” Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc made a similar point about China on the company’s Aug. 7 earnings call. “I think the fabric of global trade is changing,” Clerc said. “If you just look at the numbers, what we’ve seen in the last two and a half years is an acceleration of globalization on the back of huge commercial success from Chinese companies that are taking market share on the global stage.” Others point to growing importance of regional trade lanes amid a diversification of sourcing and geopolitical factors, as well as growth in non-US trade lanes, given that imposition of high tariffs in recent months is unique to the US. That has led to greater demand for smaller vessels able to call a greater diversity of ports. <h3>A ‘fully employed’ fleet </h3>One Asia-based ocean carrier source described it as a “structure supply situation,” noting a shortage of ships above 3,000 TEUs, which are in demand on several trades. In smaller vessel segments, fewer ships are becoming available to meet the demand, keeping charter rates elevated. “While spot rates have come under pressure, charter rates and secondhand vessel values remain firm — largely due to extended routing, geopolitical disruptions and the need for flexible tonnage,” said Aditi Rasquinha, CEO Greater China for DHL Global Forwarding. “Larger vessels dominate main trades, intensifying competition, while smaller ships remain in demand for regional and diversionary services. This has delayed scrapping and kept idle fleet levels low.” The idle fleet, currently at just 0.5%, is hovering near all-time lows, according to an Aug. 19 Alphaliner report. “With such minimal idling, the sector is considered ‘fully employed,’” the analyst wrote. At the current pace of scrapping — less than 4,000 TEUs of capacity was scrapped in the first half of 2025 — this year will see the lowest annual total of TEUs sent to the scrapyard in two decades, Alphaliner said. Charter rates, meanwhile, are very strong. The <a href="https://www.harperpetersen.com/container">Harpex container ship charter index</a>, published by Hamburg-based shipbroker Harper Peterson, has nearly tripled since the beginning of 2024. The average price for a five-year-old container ship has increased 17% year over year and 6% since the beginning of 2025, according to BIMCO. Industry fundamentals, however, are headed in the opposite direction. Average global container spot rates have tumbled 60% since August 2024, according to the Drewry World Container Index (WCI). At the same time, carrier profits are plummeting, and analysts say the worst could be yet to come. In the second quarter of 2025, carriers collectively generated net income of $4.4 billion, down from $9.9 billion in the first quarter and $12 billion in the same three-month period last year, according to analyst John McCown. JP Morgan expects carriers to experience “deep losses” beginning next year. “We continue to see an industry that is suffering from material oversupply,” the investment bank wrote in a recent advisory. Some believe there are deeper forces that explain the disconnect between deteriorating industry fundamentals and a fully deployed fleet. Specifically, it is the idea that when carriers look beyond the current cycle, they see market forces working in their favor in the long term. “The industry’s profitability profile has shifted,” said Johnson Leung, partner at Linerlytica and a former financial analyst. “Peak freight rates in the current cycle are much higher than in the previous one, while the troughs remain at similar levels. This dynamic gives liners more hope to bet on the cycle beyond this near-term slump. “And the whole industry is in a net cash position, which puts pressure on the management to deploy capital [because] net cash is not optimal for generating financial returns,” he added. “It makes more sense for them to reinvest in their core business rather than in areas where they have less expertise.” Contact Peter Tirschwell at <a href="mailto:peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com">peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

An odd disconnect has taken hold in container shipping that defies easy explanation but points to possible tectonic shifts in the global market. Fundamentals are deteriorating, but demand for tonnage remains robust. Carrier profits are rapidly disappearing in the face of dwindling volume growth, falling freight rates and an all-time-high order book that equates to nearly 30% of the existing fleet. However, charter rates and secondhand ship prices are rising, and carriers have not begun idling or scrapping vessels. “The reason is there is still a shortage of tonnage on the high seas,” a senior carrier executive told the Journal of Commerce. The executive, who asked not to be identified, and his peers say the diversification of containerized trade routes, a trend accelerated by US tariffs, is driving strong demand for tonnage, especially the smaller ships that have not seen the same growth as larger vessels. There is a “global restructuring of trade routes” underway, according to Jon Monroe, a veteran carrier, non-vessel-operating common carrier and technology executive who consults for forwarders. “Despite the insane capacity increase from new vessel introductions, carriers are keeping their charter vessels to service new growth markets,” he said. “China is pivoting to Central America, South America, Southeast Asia and of course Africa. And services are moving from direct, to hub-and-spoke networks requiring feeders for transshipments.” Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc made a similar point about China on the company’s Aug. 7 earnings call. “I think the fabric of global trade is changing,” Clerc said. “If you just look at the numbers, what we’ve seen in the last two and a half years is an acceleration of globalization on the back of huge commercial success from Chinese companies that are taking market share on the global stage.” Others point to growing importance of regional trade lanes amid a diversification of sourcing and geopolitical factors, as well as growth in non-US trade lanes, given that imposition of high tariffs in recent months is unique to the US. That has led to greater demand for smaller vessels able to call a greater diversity of ports. A ‘fully employed’ fleet One Asia-based ocean carrier source described it as a “structure supply situation,” noting a shortage of ships above 3,000 TEUs, which are in demand on several trades. In smaller vessel segments, fewer ships are becoming available to meet the demand, keeping charter rates elevated. “While spot rates have come under pressure, charter rates and secondhand vessel values remain firm — largely due to extended routing, geopolitical disruptions and the need for flexible tonnage,” said Aditi Rasquinha, CEO Greater China for DHL Global Forwarding. “Larger vessels dominate main trades, intensifying competition, while smaller ships remain in demand for regional and diversionary services. This has delayed scrapping and kept idle fleet levels low.” The idle fleet, currently at just 0.5%, is hovering near all-time lows, according to an Aug. 19 Alphaliner report. “With such minimal idling, the sector is considered ‘fully employed,’” the analyst wrote. At the current pace of scrapping — less than 4,000 TEUs of capacity was scrapped in the first half of 2025 — this year will see the lowest annual total of TEUs sent to the scrapyard in two decades, Alphaliner said. Charter rates, meanwhile, are very strong. The Harpex container ship charter index , published by Hamburg-based shipbroker Harper Peterson, has nearly tripled since the beginning of 2024. The average price for a five-year-old container ship has increased 17% year over year and 6% since the beginning of 2025, according to BIMCO. Industry fundamentals, however, are headed in the opposite direction. Average global container spot rates have tumbled 60% since August 2024, according to the Drewry World Container Index (WCI). At the same time, carrier profits are plummeting, and analysts say the worst could be yet to come. In the second quarter of 2025, carriers collectively generated net income of $4.4 billion, down from $9.9 billion in the first quarter and $12 billion in the same three-month period last year, according to analyst John McCown. JP Morgan expects carriers to experience “deep losses” beginning next year. “We continue to see an industry that is suffering from material oversupply,” the investment bank wrote in a recent advisory. Some believe there are deeper forces that explain the disconnect between deteriorating industry fundamentals and a fully deployed fleet. Specifically, it is the idea that when carriers look beyond the current cycle, they see market forces working in their favor in the long term. “The industry’s profitability profile has shifted,” said Johnson Leung, partner at Linerlytica and a former financial analyst. “Peak freight rates in the current cycle are much higher than in the previous one, while the troughs remain at similar levels. This dynamic gives liners more hope to bet on the cycle beyond this near-term slump. “And the whole industry is in a net cash position, which puts pressure on the management to deploy capital [because] net cash is not optimal for generating financial returns,” he added. “It makes more sense for them to reinvest in their core business rather than in areas where they have less expertise.” Contact Peter Tirschwell at peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com .

Container lines

Strong secondhand container ship demand defies deteriorating market

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Despite freefalling spot rates and lackluster demand expectations for the fourth quarter, carriers have been far more conservative in blanking sailings this year.</div>

Despite freefalling spot rates and lackluster demand expectations for the fourth quarter, carriers have been far more conservative in blanking sailings this year.

<div class="phx-topic">Asia-Europe ocean carriers face a moving target in their attempts to match rising capacity with softening demand due to a slew of new vessels entering the trade lane and ongoing port congestion dragging schedule reliability to dismal levels. Despite reports of full ships from carriers, the frontloading that led to an early peak season on the Asia-Europe trade is expected to curb demand through the last quarter, with blank sailings announcements picking up ahead of China’s National Day Golden Week holiday that begins on Oct. 1. “The Asia-Europe trade lane saw peak season earlier this year, with the usual September surge already past,” C.H. Robinson noted in a September market update. “This shift in timing patterns means that September through December will likely see below-normal shipping volumes compared to historical trends.” The weakening volume will coincide with the delivery of more than 1 million TEUs in capacity that are scheduled to enter service before the end of the year. Importantly, 67% of the new vessels will have a capacity of more than 15,200 TEUs, according to Alphaliner, which means most will necessarily be deployed on the already oversupplied Asia-North Europe and Mediterranean trades. Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis, noted in the firm’s Sunday Spotlight newsletter that Asia-North Europe rates are showing structural weakness. “This could imply an increasing overcapacity of ultra-large container vessels, which to a large degree have no other relevant deployment focus than the Asia-Europe trade,” he explained. “As such, this is problematic going forward, as we will see ever more of these vessels delivered.” <h3>Blank sailings below last year’s levels </h3>The carriers, for their part, are managing capacity by blanking sailings, but not at the same level as last year, said Destine Ozuygur, product marketing manager at rate benchmarking platform Xeneta. “We saw blanking announcements from Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC) last week and a few more, which we are currently factoring into the database,” she told the Journal of Commerce. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="e408891d-d5c3-4aa2-bee2-432e034b0aaa"></dynamic-object></div>MSC announced six blank sailings on Asia-Europe loops for the last two weeks of September, ahead of China’s National Day Golden Week holiday, while Maersk has said it will blank four sailings in late September and early October. Ozuygur said, so far, carriers are scheduled to blank a total of 13 Asia-North Europe sailings in September and 16 in October, far short of the 25 sailings canceled in September and 39 in October last year. “We do expect to see a few more but don’t currently believe it will reach those [prior-year] levels,” she said. That relative lack of blanks has put additional downward pressure on spot rates, which have been in freefall since mid-July, as reflected by the various rate indices — Drewry’s World Container Index, Xeneta, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index and Platts. Average spot rates from Asia to North Europe fell to $1,700 per FEU as of Monday, down 49.1% from the week of July 18 and 63.5% from the same week last year, according to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Short-term Asia-Mediterranean pricing of $2,100 per FEU was down 52.3% from its summer peak in the week of June 20 and 54.7% year over year. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="7b12031d-6ddc-4ecd-8caa-64db04f5c585"></dynamic-object></div>C.H. Robinson wrote in its September update that there is insufficient cargo demand on Asia-Europe to support any rate hikes, with carriers choosing market share over pushing through increases. That could be a positive for shippers beyond the initial cost savings. “We’re seeing Asia-North Europe spot rates falling at an accelerated pace, while Mediterranean rates are declining more slowly, eliminating the traditional price differential between these destinations,” the forwarder noted. “This convergence means there’s no longer a significant advantage between North European and Mediterranean discharge ports based solely on rates,” C.H. Robinson added. “Greater flexibility in port selection then allows for more strategic supply-chain optimization beyond the cost of the ocean shipping itself.” <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="aae86b37-a758-4057-a868-4900e5237525"></dynamic-object></div>In tandem with the rate decline is schedule reliability that in August fell to its lowest level in years. Data from eeSea shows on-time performance on Asia-North Europe of just 17% and 16% from Asia to the Mediterranean. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Asia-Europe ocean carriers face a moving target in their attempts to match rising capacity with softening demand due to a slew of new vessels entering the trade lane and ongoing port congestion dragging schedule reliability to dismal levels. Despite reports of full ships from carriers, the frontloading that led to an early peak season on the Asia-Europe trade is expected to curb demand through the last quarter, with blank sailings announcements picking up ahead of China’s National Day Golden Week holiday that begins on Oct. 1. “The Asia-Europe trade lane saw peak season earlier this year, with the usual September surge already past,” C.H. Robinson noted in a September market update. “This shift in timing patterns means that September through December will likely see below-normal shipping volumes compared to historical trends.” The weakening volume will coincide with the delivery of more than 1 million TEUs in capacity that are scheduled to enter service before the end of the year. Importantly, 67% of the new vessels will have a capacity of more than 15,200 TEUs, according to Alphaliner, which means most will necessarily be deployed on the already oversupplied Asia-North Europe and Mediterranean trades. Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis, noted in the firm’s Sunday Spotlight newsletter that Asia-North Europe rates are showing structural weakness. “This could imply an increasing overcapacity of ultra-large container vessels, which to a large degree have no other relevant deployment focus than the Asia-Europe trade,” he explained. “As such, this is problematic going forward, as we will see ever more of these vessels delivered.” Blank sailings below last year’s levels The carriers, for their part, are managing capacity by blanking sailings, but not at the same level as last year, said Destine Ozuygur, product marketing manager at rate benchmarking platform Xeneta. “We saw blanking announcements from Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC) last week and a few more, which we are currently factoring into the database,” she told the Journal of Commerce. MSC announced six blank sailings on Asia-Europe loops for the last two weeks of September, ahead of China’s National Day Golden Week holiday, while Maersk has said it will blank four sailings in late September and early October. Ozuygur said, so far, carriers are scheduled to blank a total of 13 Asia-North Europe sailings in September and 16 in October, far short of the 25 sailings canceled in September and 39 in October last year. “We do expect to see a few more but don’t currently believe it will reach those [prior-year] levels,” she said. That relative lack of blanks has put additional downward pressure on spot rates, which have been in freefall since mid-July, as reflected by the various rate indices — Drewry’s World Container Index, Xeneta, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index and Platts. Average spot rates from Asia to North Europe fell to $1,700 per FEU as of Monday, down 49.1% from the week of July 18 and 63.5% from the same week last year, according to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Short-term Asia-Mediterranean pricing of $2,100 per FEU was down 52.3% from its summer peak in the week of June 20 and 54.7% year over year. C.H. Robinson wrote in its September update that there is insufficient cargo demand on Asia-Europe to support any rate hikes, with carriers choosing market share over pushing through increases. That could be a positive for shippers beyond the initial cost savings. “We’re seeing Asia-North Europe spot rates falling at an accelerated pace, while Mediterranean rates are declining more slowly, eliminating the traditional price differential between these destinations,” the forwarder noted. “This convergence means there’s no longer a significant advantage between North European and Mediterranean discharge ports based solely on rates,” C.H. Robinson added. “Greater flexibility in port selection then allows for more strategic supply-chain optimization beyond the cost of the ocean shipping itself.” In tandem with the rate decline is schedule reliability that in August fell to its lowest level in years. Data from eeSea shows on-time performance on Asia-North Europe of just 17% and 16% from Asia to the Mediterranean. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

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In today’s competitive logistical landscape, efficiency is an absolute necessity for smooth operations. Yet, in the barge sector, many operators still rely on fragmented systems, delayed updates, and manual tracking methods that slow decision-making and increase operational risk. OpenTug’s new eBook, How Enhanced Visibility Transforms Barge Operations, reveals how unified, real-time data can become your competitive advantage leading to improved voyage management and more actionable insights. Drawing on industry best practices and real-world examples, it explores how operational transparency empowers teams to: ●	Reduce delays with accurate ETAs and proactive scheduling decisions ●	Improve asset utilization by identifying underused equipment and optimizing cargos ●	Strengthen safety and compliance through consistent, accessible documentation and reporting ●	Boost customer satisfaction with transparent status updates and faster response time You’ll learn how visibility can connect every part of your operation into a single, actionable view. The ability to see and act on real-time information transforms the way you plan, execute, and deliver. From managing a small regional fleet to running a large, national operation, this eBook will help you understand the measurable benefits of enhanced visibility and how technology like BargeOS is transforming the way barge logistics is managed. Get your copy today and see how clear insights lead to stronger performance, smarter decisions, and more profitable operations. <a href="https://9315820.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/9315820/eBook/Nav-theFuture-AJW-08.19.25.pdf" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">Click here</a><span class="joc_admin__inline-image joc_admin__inline-image-aspect-ratio-16_9 joc_admin__inline-image-position-left joc_admin__inline-image-size-small" data-figure-size="small" data-figure-position="left" data-figure-aspect-ratio="16:9"><img src="/content-assets/1756152344211_Opentug%20logo.png" alt="" class="joc_admin__inline-image-inherit">

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At SSA Marine Mexico, we firmly believe that business development must go hand in hand with social and environmental well-being. Our vision is not solely focused on operating efficiently, but also on creating a meaningful and positive impact in the communities where we are present. Since 1995, we have reaffirmed this commitment through tangible actions that reflect our core values of responsibility, solidarity, and sustainability. <span class="joc_admin__inline-image joc_admin__inline-image-aspect-ratio-3_2 joc_admin__inline-image-position-left joc_admin__inline-image-size-medium" data-figure-size="medium" data-figure-position="left" data-figure-aspect-ratio="3:2"><img src="/content-assets/1752584535914_Photo%201.jpg" alt="" class="joc_admin__inline-image-inherit"> A Year of Major Achievements Over the past year, we allocated more than $107,000 USD to the implementation of 60 social and environmental projects, positively impacting over 7,800 people across various regions of Mexico. Each initiative was designed with a holistic approach, addressing key areas that contribute to long-term community development. Education: Laying the Foundation for the Future Education is one of the most powerful tools to promote social mobility and equitable development. At SSA Marine Mexico, we support academic initiatives that inspire and empower the next generation of leaders. One of our most impactful partnerships was with the University of Colima, where we sponsored the “Reto Camp” program. This initiative encourages university students to develop innovative solutions in the fields of sustainability, logistics, and port operations, offering them mentorship, tools, and real-world challenges to solve. In addition, we donated microscopes, school supplies, and educational materials to institutions in underserved communities, helping to improve the learning environment and provide students with the resources they need to succeed. Health and Sports: Promoting Wellness We believe that healthy communities are strong communities. We have supported several local sporting events and provided direct assistance to talented athletes, enabling them to pursue their passions and represent their regions with pride. Beyond sports, we also strengthened our collaboration with critical emergency response organizations such as the Mexican Red Cross and Civil Protection. Our contributions helped enhance their readiness and capabilities in times of crisis, ensuring better outcomes for those affected by emergencies. Supporting Vulnerable Groups: Reaching Those Who Need It Most A core part of our social responsibility efforts is directed toward supporting vulnerable populations. We have contributed to a range of initiatives focused on children, migrants, and at-risk families. These efforts included donations to orphanages and shelters, as well as support for the National Institute of Migration and grassroots organizations dedicated to protecting and empowering people facing adversity. By standing with those in need, we reinforce our commitment to inclusion and social justice, values that are central to our identity as a responsible company. <span class="joc_admin__inline-image joc_admin__inline-image-aspect-ratio-3_2 joc_admin__inline-image-position-left joc_admin__inline-image-size-medium" data-figure-size="medium" data-figure-position="left" data-figure-aspect-ratio="3:2"><img src="/content-assets/1752584944645_Photo%202.png" alt="" class="joc_admin__inline-image-inherit">Culture: Strengthening Community Identity Cultural identity is a key element in building resilient and united communities. At SSA Marine Mexico, we actively participate in the organization and sponsorship of cultural events that celebrate local traditions and foster civic pride. Working alongside port authorities and municipal governments, we helped bring music, art, and heritage to the forefront, creating spaces for community engagement and intercultural dialogue. Environment: Investing in the Planet Our commitment to sustainability goes beyond operations—it’s a philosophy that drives every decision we make. We have partnered with environmental institutions to carry out reforestation campaigns, beach cleanups, and conservation efforts. In collaboration with the Institute for the Environment, we supported initiatives aimed at decarbonization, biodiversity protection, and environmental education. By involving our employees and local volunteers in these actions, we also foster a culture of environmental stewardship throughout our organization and our surrounding communities. Innovation for a Sustainable Future Sustainability is not just about doing good—it’s also about doing things better. In 2024, we invested $22 million USD in the acquisition of 11 state-of-the-art E-RTG cranes. These electric rubber-tired gantry cranes represent a significant technological advancement in port equipment. Seven of them are already operating on clean electric energy, resulting in a reduction of nearly 4,000 tons of CO₂ emissions and improving operational efficiency by 7%. The remaining four cranes are fully compatible with future electrification, underscoring our long-term strategy to modernize our operations in an environmentally responsible way. This investment is part of a broader innovation roadmap that includes digitalization, automation, and cleaner energy sources—all designed to ensure that our ports continue to grow without compromising the health of our planet. Building a Better Tomorrow, Together At SSA Marine Mexico, we understand that sustainability is a shared and ongoing responsibility. True impact requires collaboration across sectors, long-term vision, and unwavering commitment. That is why we continue to work hand-in-hand with local authorities, non-profit organizations, universities, and our own employees to create solutions that are both scalable and sustainable. Our journey is far from over. In the years ahead, we will continue to deepen our community engagement, explore cleaner technologies, and strengthen the social fabric of the regions where we operate. Each initiative, no matter the size, is a step toward building a future where business success goes hand-in-hand with human and environmental prosperity. We are proud of what we have achieved in 2024, but we are even more excited about what lies ahead. SSA Marine Mexico — Moving the World, Caring for People and Planet. LINK: <a href="https://www.ssamarine.mx/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">https://www.ssamarine.mx/</a>

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The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

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Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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