<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>Free time periods have been reduced and tariffs for demurrage and detention have increased considerably. Marine terminals and ocean carriers counter that detention and demurrage encourages shippers to pick up and return containers in order to boost cargo fluidity that’s challenged by the larger discharges of mega-ships.</p></div>

Free time periods have been reduced and tariffs for demurrage and detention have increased considerably. Marine terminals and ocean carriers counter that detention and demurrage encourages shippers to pick up and return containers in order to boost cargo fluidity that’s challenged by the larger discharges of mega-ships.

<div><div><img></div><p>Free time periods have been reduced and tariffs for demurrage and detention have increased considerably. Marine terminals and ocean carriers counter that detention and demurrage encourages shippers to pick up and return containers in order to boost cargo fluidity that’s challenged by the stronger discharges of mega-ships. (Above: Containers stacked at the Port of Long Beach.) Photo credit: Shutterstock.com.</p><p>Forwarders are raising the alarm about what they see as an uptick in unreasonable detention and demurrage charges and “strong indications” that shipping lines are abusing the charges to maximize profits.</p><p>In a report, the International Federation of Freight Forwarders Associations (FIATA) said...

Free time periods have been reduced and tariffs for demurrage and detention have increased considerably. Marine terminals and ocean carriers counter that detention and demurrage encourages shippers to pick up and return containers in order to boost cargo fluidity that’s challenged by the stronger discharges of mega-ships. (Above: Containers stacked at the Port of Long Beach.) Photo credit: Shutterstock.com. Forwarders are raising the alarm about what they see as an uptick in unreasonable detention and demurrage charges and “strong indications” that shipping lines are abusing the charges to maximize profits. In a report, the International Federation of Freight Forwarders Associations (FIATA) said that during the last few years free time periods have been reduced and tariffs for demurrage and detention have increased considerably. Marine terminals and ocean carriers counter that they continue to use detention and demurrage as way to encourage shippers to pick up and return containers in order to boost cargo fluidity that’s challenged by the larger discharges of mega-ships. “It is understood that shipping lines have been suffering in a very tough business environment and do everything they can to develop revenue streams that are not necessarily derived from freight, but FIATA does not believe that merchants should be subjected to predatory pricing of this nature, especially as delays often occur through no fault of the merchant,” FIATA said. Those delays, which are out of the hands of shippers, were a result of larger container shipping call sizes choking terminals, increasing port congestion, schedules thrown out by bad weather, environmentally driven modal shifts, delays in sailing, increasing scrutiny of cross-border documentation, and tighter security measures. “Labour issues, choice of terminal, and terminal congestion related to the impact of increasing size of vessels on ports and terminals that are already geographically constrained are examples of issues that are within the control of supply chain partners, but beyond the control of the merchant,” FIATA said. “These issues lead to detention and demurrage charges for merchants who are unable to obtain release of laden containers or return empty containers through no fault of their own. There is no logic insisting on a charge that is supposed to motivate the merchant to pick up or return a container quickly if the terminal is not able to comply with this request.” While the association agreed that demurrage and detention charges were an important tool for shipping lines to ensure the efficient use of their container stock that represented a large investment, carriers have been accused of abusing their position with “unjust and unreasonable” charges to the merchant. “The opinion prevails that shipping lines abuse such charges in order to increase income and profits,” FIATA said. Demurrage and detention Demurrage refers to a charge that the merchant pays for a container excessively idling at a terminal without being picked up by a trucker. Detention is the charge for not returning the container to the terminal or depot within the free time period. In the case of demurrage, the terminal incurs the extra costs of acting as a storage yard, while in detention, ocean carriers miss out on a business opportunity to turn their box for other shippers needing to move freight. But the excessive charging is on the radar of regulators. The US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) is busy with an investigation into detention and demurrage practices that it launched in early 2017 following a petition from the Coalition for Fair Port Practices , a group comprising 26 organizations representing thousands of US shippers, in December 2016. FMC commissioner Rebecca Dye and Acting Chairman Michael Khouri expressed an inclination to broker a business solution to resolve the detention and demurrage issue, rather than formal rulemaking. “Rulemaking is not our first choice, but at the end of the day if there are persistent practices that are found to be unjust and unreasonable, and stakeholders do not want to listen and proactively adjust business practices, then [rulemaking] will remain on the list,” Khouri said. After the meeting, Dye told JOC.com no such behavior has been exhibited by shippers, ocean carriers, or terminals. “We will decide [in December] how to best implement change ... but I am not feeling any lack of cooperation. We can’t drive meaningful change in the industry without leaders stepping up, and they are doing that right now,” Dye told JOC. Less expensive to store container in Midtown Manhattan However, the FIATA report said demurrage and detention charges have been known to accrue to 20 times and more than the value of the container itself. The forwarder association referred to one extreme example where an FMC witness noted that it would have been less expensive to park his container in Midtown Manhattan than at the Port of New York-New Jersey. (Midtown Manhattan in New York City is the world’s largest central business district and has some of the highest parking rates in the world.) A National Retail Federation and Coalition for Fair Port Practices release in December 2016 gave three examples of excessive charging: A retailer was charged $80,000 because it took up to nine days to retrieve containers when only four free days were allowed. A trucking company was charged $1.2 million after long lines at New York and New Jersey ports kept it from returning containers on time. A transportation company was charged $1.25 million after containers it tried to return were turned away at West Coast ports; the amount was eventually reduced to $250,000 but only a year after the company was forced to pay the fees upfront. FIATA has released a best practices guide aimed at protecting shippers from charges that were levied despite shippers having no way to have their containers released by the terminals. In the paper, FIATA suggested that commercial partners negotiate terms to extend free time for a period that was equal to the duration of the inability of the terminals to release a container for import or receive a container for export, and the inability of the depots to receive an empty container. The introduction of mega-ships has led directly to increasing delays and dwell times within terminals, FIATA said. Many terminals and landside operations were dealing with bigger vessels, bigger peaks, congestion, and unreliable vessel schedules. Higher peaks led to a greater concentration of landside delivery and pickups, with the result that many ports also have to deal with road congestion. The association said while additional landside infrastructure investment might be required, the easing of peaks through extended free time periods must be considered as well. “Instead of decreasing free time periods, FIATA suggests that commercial partners negotiate an increase in free time periods to allow merchants more flexibility in their planning.” Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@ihsmarkit.com and follow him on Twitter: @greg_knowler .

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

Supply chain

Forwarders: Unreasonable demurrage-detention on the rise

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>New Delhi has formed a consortium of six state-owned entities to push ahead with a plan to launch a large nationally-owned container carrier, to be known as the Bharat Container Shipping Line. </p></div>

New Delhi has formed a consortium of six state-owned entities to push ahead with a plan to launch a large nationally-owned container carrier, to be known as the Bharat Container Shipping Line.

Feature image

<div class="phx-topic"><p>India is making a formidable bid to counter the long-standing dominance of foreign-flagged container vessel fleets over its growing export/import trade, which arguably exposes domestic shippers to the vagaries of global supply/demand dynamics and shifting logistics patterns. </p><p>New Delhi has formed a consortium of six state-owned entities, led by the national carrier Shipping Corporation of India (SCI), to advance a plan approved last October to launch the operation of a large nationally-owned container carrier that will be known as the Bharat Container Shipping Line (BCSL). </p><p>The joint venture is primed to inject approximately $6.9 billion as an initial investment into the project, according to current indications. </p><p>“This reinforces India’s strategic and commercial presence in global maritime trade,” a government statement said. “It strengthens India’s supply chains across maritime and logistics segments, reducing dependence on foreign operators.” </p><p>Tentative plans call for acquiring 51 vessels in the initial phase and scaling tonnage capacity to over 400 ships in stages. </p><p>The move was greeted with high optimism by local pro-export stakeholders who had been pushing Indian-flagged shipping capacity efforts, especially after the pandemic-linked supply chain mayhem. </p><p>“The launch of BCSL is a timely and strategic step towards building India’s own maritime capacity,” Ajay Sahai, director general at the Federation of Indian Exports Organization (FIEO), told the <i>Journal of Commerce</i>. “Indian exporters have long faced challenges of freight volatility and capacity constraints. A domestic shipping line focused on India’s trade needs will enhance reliability, resilience and cost efficiency in our supply chains,” he said. </p><h3>Cabotage modification ended </h3><p>While the creation of BCSL is noteworthy and promises to stoke competition, it remains to be seen how the new entrant will be able to nurture network partnerships with large global carriers for long-haul services with end-to-end service reliability in a more consolidated industry. </p><p>Currently, SCI, India’s only homegrown container line, has little to boast of as a long-haul operator due to a severely depleted box fleet — confined to just two 2008-built midsize vessels — and decades-long growth uncertainty caused by shifting government investment plans. With the exception of an India-Europe consortium deal with Mediterranean Shipping Co., the Indian liner’s trade participation is now largely relegated to short-sea or regional markets. </p><p>Meanwhile, New Delhi has also signaled other protectionist postures. The 2018 <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/debate-over-india-cabotage-flares-again-5208366">cabotage modification</a> that allowed foreign-flag carriers to move containers intra-country freely was canceled last month because the reform failed to accomplish the policy objectives it had intended to advance, mainly domestic transshipment development and logistics cost improvements.   </p><p>“The withdrawal of cabotage relaxation does pose some challenges,” a Mumbai-based European carrier representative who didn’t want to be identified told the <i>Journal of Commerce</i>. “The [foreign] lines now need to ponder the consequences of altered operational fundamentals.”  </p><p><i>Contact Bency Mathew at </i><a href="mailto:bencyvmathew@gmail.com"><i>bencyvmathew@gmail.com</i></a><i>.</i> </p></div>

India is making a formidable bid to counter the long-standing dominance of foreign-flagged container vessel fleets over its growing export/import trade, which arguably exposes domestic shippers to the vagaries of global supply/demand dynamics and shifting logistics patterns. New Delhi has formed a consortium of six state-owned entities, led by the national carrier Shipping Corporation of India (SCI), to advance a plan approved last October to launch the operation of a large nationally-owned container carrier that will be known as the Bharat Container Shipping Line (BCSL). The joint venture is primed to inject approximately $6.9 billion as an initial investment into the project, according to current indications. “This reinforces India’s strategic and commercial presence in global maritime trade,” a government statement said. “It strengthens India’s supply chains across maritime and logistics segments, reducing dependence on foreign operators.” Tentative plans call for acquiring 51 vessels in the initial phase and scaling tonnage capacity to over 400 ships in stages. The move was greeted with high optimism by local pro-export stakeholders who had been pushing Indian-flagged shipping capacity efforts, especially after the pandemic-linked supply chain mayhem. “The launch of BCSL is a timely and strategic step towards building India’s own maritime capacity,” Ajay Sahai, director general at the Federation of Indian Exports Organization (FIEO), told the Journal of Commerce. “Indian exporters have long faced challenges of freight volatility and capacity constraints. A domestic shipping line focused on India’s trade needs will enhance reliability, resilience and cost efficiency in our supply chains,” he said. Cabotage modification ended While the creation of BCSL is noteworthy and promises to stoke competition, it remains to be seen how the new entrant will be able to nurture network partnerships with large global carriers for long-haul services with end-to-end service reliability in a more consolidated industry. Currently, SCI, India’s only homegrown container line, has little to boast of as a long-haul operator due to a severely depleted box fleet — confined to just two 2008-built midsize vessels — and decades-long growth uncertainty caused by shifting government investment plans. With the exception of an India-Europe consortium deal with Mediterranean Shipping Co., the Indian liner’s trade participation is now largely relegated to short-sea or regional markets. Meanwhile, New Delhi has also signaled other protectionist postures. The 2018 cabotage modification that allowed foreign-flag carriers to move containers intra-country freely was canceled last month because the reform failed to accomplish the policy objectives it had intended to advance, mainly domestic transshipment development and logistics cost improvements. “The withdrawal of cabotage relaxation does pose some challenges,” a Mumbai-based European carrier representative who didn’t want to be identified told the Journal of Commerce. “The [foreign] lines now need to ponder the consequences of altered operational fundamentals.” Contact Bency Mathew at bencyvmathew@gmail.com .

Container lines

Container Shipping News

Maritime

India advances launch of state container line after cabotage rule rewind

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>The carrier’s solid interim earnings through 2025 ensured a positive full-year result, but red ink made its first appearance in two years on the company’s quarterly balance sheet. </p></div>

The carrier’s solid interim earnings through 2025 ensured a positive full-year result, but red ink made its first appearance in two years on the company’s quarterly balance sheet.

<div class="phx-topic"><p>The positive impact of the Gemini Cooperation network with partner Hapag-Lloyd that has carried through into 2026 will run into growing overcapacity exacerbated by a return to Suez Canal transits, Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said Thursday. </p><p>While Gemini’s rollout one year ago drove up Maersk’s annual volume, delivered significant cost savings across the network, and generated a record 2025 performance in its terminals division, Clerc warned the industry was heading into a downturn driven by excess capacity. </p><p>“Whether it is through new ships that are coming in or through the return to Suez, we’re going to have an overcapacity of anywhere from 4% to 8% in 2026,” the CEO said during an earnings call that followed the release of Maersk’s fourth-quarter and 2025 financial results. </p><p>“If we return fast and full to Suez, we will see more pressure on the freight rate because there is a bigger gap that we need to close at once,” Clerc added. “If we have an orderly, slow, gradual return, we might be able to manage it better.”  </p><p>While Maersk’s solid interim earnings through 2025 ensured a positive full-year result, red ink made its first appearance in two years on the carrier’s quarterly balance sheet. The company also announced it will cut 1,000 jobs this year. </p><p>Maersk for the fourth quarter reported a $153 million loss in its container shipping segment as average rates fell 23% year over year to $2,046 per FEU, offsetting an 8% gain in volume to 3.4 million FEUs. Revenue in the fourth quarter of $13.3 billion was down 8.7% year over year, and earnings before interest, taxes, amortization and depreciation (EBITDA) fell 49% to $1.8 billion. Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) were down 94% at $100 million, while the carrier recorded zero net profit in the fourth quarter. </p><p>For the full year, revenue dropped 2.7% year over year to $54 billion, EBITDA was down 21% at $9.5 billion, EBIT of $3.5 billion fell 46%, and net profit of $2.9 billion was down 53% compared with 2024. </p><h3>Potential loss flagged for 2026 </h3><p>The severe impact of overcapacity on the market was illustrated in Maersk’s 2026 profitability forecast. Faced with a return to the Suez and new ship deliveries adding to industry overcapacity, the carrier has flagged a potential $1.5 billion loss in its full-year EBIT earnings for 2026. It would be the first operating loss Maersk has booked in 10 years. The top end of the profit guidance was set at $1 billion, $2.5 billion less than last year’s result. </p><p>With profitability falling and huge pressure on cost savings, the significant cost benefits achieved by Gemini in 2025 will be welcome. </p><p>“We have generated over $300 million in benefits in the fourth quarter, and we are now targeting $820 [million] to $1.1 billion in annual benefits,” Clerc told analysts. </p><p>He said network savings are generated by more efficient use of vessels by sailing at slower speeds over shorter distances between hub ports, transporting more volume with the same capacity, and having shorter dwell times at berth. The lower bunker consumption from these measures translated to a cost saving of $150 million in the fourth quarter alone. </p><p>Gemini’s increased volume also had a highly positive impact on Maersk’s APM Terminals division, with fourth-quarter revenue of $1.4 billion that was up 13% year over year and volume increasing 8.4%, mainly on the Europe, North America and Latin America trade lanes. </p><h3>Strong global container demand </h3><p>The industry might be facing a growing overcapacity problem, but demand in 2026 is expected to grow between 2% and 4%; Maersk expects to grow its volume in line with the market. </p><p>“As we look ahead to 2026, we see a continuation of strong global container demand translating into a volume growth that we expect to land between 2% and 4% based on various scenarios,” Clerc said. </p><p>Maersk’s executives are also confident they have the tools in place to handle the imbalance in supply and demand. </p><p>“We have a strong balance sheet to weather the downturn in ocean, [but] the unknown is how deep and how long will it last,” Maersk CFO Patrick Jany said on the call, highlighting the significant number of old vessels that were not economically viable at current rate levels. </p><p>Jany said at some point, the unviable capacity would be scrapped, returned to charterers or idled.  </p><p>“I would expect this to happen this year, particularly in scenarios where the Red Sea reopens fully and fast, that will trigger every reaction,” he said. “Our view is not that we’ll have three years of pain, but more that you will have one or two years of pain, and then the capacity will be taken out.”  </p><p><i>Contact Greg Knowler at </i><a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com"><i>greg.knowler@spglobal.com</i></a>.   </p></div>

The positive impact of the Gemini Cooperation network with partner Hapag-Lloyd that has carried through into 2026 will run into growing overcapacity exacerbated by a return to Suez Canal transits, Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said Thursday. While Gemini’s rollout one year ago drove up Maersk’s annual volume, delivered significant cost savings across the network, and generated a record 2025 performance in its terminals division, Clerc warned the industry was heading into a downturn driven by excess capacity. “Whether it is through new ships that are coming in or through the return to Suez, we’re going to have an overcapacity of anywhere from 4% to 8% in 2026,” the CEO said during an earnings call that followed the release of Maersk’s fourth-quarter and 2025 financial results. “If we return fast and full to Suez, we will see more pressure on the freight rate because there is a bigger gap that we need to close at once,” Clerc added. “If we have an orderly, slow, gradual return, we might be able to manage it better.” While Maersk’s solid interim earnings through 2025 ensured a positive full-year result, red ink made its first appearance in two years on the carrier’s quarterly balance sheet. The company also announced it will cut 1,000 jobs this year. Maersk for the fourth quarter reported a $153 million loss in its container shipping segment as average rates fell 23% year over year to $2,046 per FEU, offsetting an 8% gain in volume to 3.4 million FEUs. Revenue in the fourth quarter of $13.3 billion was down 8.7% year over year, and earnings before interest, taxes, amortization and depreciation (EBITDA) fell 49% to $1.8 billion. Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) were down 94% at $100 million, while the carrier recorded zero net profit in the fourth quarter. For the full year, revenue dropped 2.7% year over year to $54 billion, EBITDA was down 21% at $9.5 billion, EBIT of $3.5 billion fell 46%, and net profit of $2.9 billion was down 53% compared with 2024. Potential loss flagged for 2026 The severe impact of overcapacity on the market was illustrated in Maersk’s 2026 profitability forecast. Faced with a return to the Suez and new ship deliveries adding to industry overcapacity, the carrier has flagged a potential $1.5 billion loss in its full-year EBIT earnings for 2026. It would be the first operating loss Maersk has booked in 10 years. The top end of the profit guidance was set at $1 billion, $2.5 billion less than last year’s result. With profitability falling and huge pressure on cost savings, the significant cost benefits achieved by Gemini in 2025 will be welcome. “We have generated over $300 million in benefits in the fourth quarter, and we are now targeting $820 [million] to $1.1 billion in annual benefits,” Clerc told analysts. He said network savings are generated by more efficient use of vessels by sailing at slower speeds over shorter distances between hub ports, transporting more volume with the same capacity, and having shorter dwell times at berth. The lower bunker consumption from these measures translated to a cost saving of $150 million in the fourth quarter alone. Gemini’s increased volume also had a highly positive impact on Maersk’s APM Terminals division, with fourth-quarter revenue of $1.4 billion that was up 13% year over year and volume increasing 8.4%, mainly on the Europe, North America and Latin America trade lanes. Strong global container demand The industry might be facing a growing overcapacity problem, but demand in 2026 is expected to grow between 2% and 4%; Maersk expects to grow its volume in line with the market. “As we look ahead to 2026, we see a continuation of strong global container demand translating into a volume growth that we expect to land between 2% and 4% based on various scenarios,” Clerc said. Maersk’s executives are also confident they have the tools in place to handle the imbalance in supply and demand. “We have a strong balance sheet to weather the downturn in ocean, [but] the unknown is how deep and how long will it last,” Maersk CFO Patrick Jany said on the call, highlighting the significant number of old vessels that were not economically viable at current rate levels. Jany said at some point, the unviable capacity would be scrapped, returned to charterers or idled. “I would expect this to happen this year, particularly in scenarios where the Red Sea reopens fully and fast, that will trigger every reaction,” he said. “Our view is not that we’ll have three years of pain, but more that you will have one or two years of pain, and then the capacity will be taken out.” Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Gemini benefits face looming challenge from oversupplied market: Maersk CEO

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>Power generation cargoes are on the rise amid surging demand linked to data centers, but cargo generated by oil projects will be on shakier ground in 2026. </p></div>

Power generation cargoes are on the rise amid surging demand linked to data centers, but cargo generated by oil projects will be on shakier ground in 2026.

<div class="phx-topic"><p>A lumpy project cargo demand outlook through 2027 is creating a confused market, with a jagged split of “haves” and “have nots” when it comes to cargo commitments. </p><div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6164834_0.1.jpg"></img></div><p>According to data from S&amp;P Global Energy, global power demand is surging, impacted significantly by demand from data centers. The demand for power from these new installations has accelerated faster than most grids can accommodate, prompting demand not only for the equipment that will produce the extra power needed, but also for new infrastructure to renew the power grid in some regions, principally North America. </p><p>Growth in demand for power from data centers is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 13.5% through 2030 for the US alone, according to S&amp;P Global Energy. Growth in power demand from these installations for mainland China is forecast at a compound annual growth rate of 14.1% and at 10% for Europe. India is starting at a much lower base, but the forecast growth over the next five years is over 25% per year.  </p><div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="e4371a05-8ffc-4840-852c-9d7c41a4fb0c"></dynamic-object></div><p>Original equipment manufacturers have told the <i>Journal of Commerce</i> their factories are fully booked to produce turbines for the next few years. At the same time, ship operators with deck carriers and heavy-lift capability said they have fixed long-term contracts of affreightment for specialized tonnage. </p><h3>Mixed cargo demand picture </h3><p>Conversely, other sectors are not seeing the same levels of booming cargo demand. Crude oil prices are expected to remain at or below $60 per barrel for most of 2026, according to S&amp;P Global Energy, adversely impacting global exploration and production capital spending for 2026 and continuing the negative trend from 2024. </p><p>Some of the largest decreases in expected spend for 2026 are in Europe (down 9.4%) North America (down 5%), and Asia-Pacific (down 5%). This is expected to lead to a drop in new rigs, both off and onshore, of almost 2% in 2026, according to S&amp;P Global Energy. The oil and gas sector is a significant driver of project cargo demand.  </p><p>Shippers and forwarders operating in this sector have confirmed to the <i>Journal of Commerce</i> that the cargo outlook is not as rosy as it is for the power generation sector.  </p><p>Some oil-related projects saw investors disappear in 2025, with little expectation that they will return in 2026, forwarders said. In the US, economic uncertainty persists, as do concerns over oil supply constraints and uncertainty regarding the latest round of US sanctions.  </p><div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="a91a35c4-7675-4a37-9ee9-7c352444edc8"></dynamic-object></div><p>Inventory levels in 2026 are significantly above those seen in 2025 and production growth is forecast to outpace demand growth over the first quarter of 2026. S&amp;P Global Energy assumes that OPEC+ will halt production increases during 2026, but there is no expectation of a reduction in Russian production or exports. This has led S&amp;P Global Energy to forecast an average crude price for 2026 of $50-$60/barrel. Oil majors use an oil price benchmark closer to $70/barrel for investment commitments for exploration and production projects. </p><h3>MPV fleet supply remains tight </h3><p>Growth in the multipurpose vessel (MPV) fleet has been focused on the heavy-lift sector for the past few years, catering to those heavier power generation and wind cargoes. That sector of the fleet is expected to grow by an average annual rate of 4.1% through 2030, according to the <i>Journal of Commerce</i>. Newbuilding orders for the heavy-lift sector continue to trickle in and demolition levels remain low.  </p><p>For the MPV fleet, with heavy-lift capability below 250 tons, growth is projected at less than 1% per year over the same period. Demolition levels for this sector are marginally higher, mainly because this fleet is older, but there is also more competition for these cargoes, and rates are expected to remain at or below current levels for some time.  </p><p>In addition to the risk of falling oil and gas project investment, there are more unknowns that could destabilize parts of the MPV sector in 2026. When the Red Sea eventually reopens for all tonnage, there will be a 10% rise in MPV capacity, according to <i>Journal of Commerce</i> projections. Some of this may be mopped up by short-term port congestion upon reopening, but likely not enough to avoid overcapacity. The geopolitical outlook also remains uncertain, and tariffs continue to affect breakbulk and project cargo trade. </p><p>That said, patchy cargo demand for some sectors of the fleet could work in shippers’ favor as there will be increased competition for the cargoes that are transported, forwarders say.  </p><p><i>Contact Susan Oatway at </i><a href="mailto:susan.oatway@spglobal.com"><i>susan.oatway@spglobal.com</i></a><i>.</i> </p></div>

A lumpy project cargo demand outlook through 2027 is creating a confused market, with a jagged split of “haves” and “have nots” when it comes to cargo commitments. According to data from S&P Global Energy, global power demand is surging, impacted significantly by demand from data centers. The demand for power from these new installations has accelerated faster than most grids can accommodate, prompting demand not only for the equipment that will produce the extra power needed, but also for new infrastructure to renew the power grid in some regions, principally North America. Growth in demand for power from data centers is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 13.5% through 2030 for the US alone, according to S&P Global Energy. Growth in power demand from these installations for mainland China is forecast at a compound annual growth rate of 14.1% and at 10% for Europe. India is starting at a much lower base, but the forecast growth over the next five years is over 25% per year. Original equipment manufacturers have told the Journal of Commerce their factories are fully booked to produce turbines for the next few years. At the same time, ship operators with deck carriers and heavy-lift capability said they have fixed long-term contracts of affreightment for specialized tonnage. Mixed cargo demand picture Conversely, other sectors are not seeing the same levels of booming cargo demand. Crude oil prices are expected to remain at or below $60 per barrel for most of 2026, according to S&P Global Energy, adversely impacting global exploration and production capital spending for 2026 and continuing the negative trend from 2024. Some of the largest decreases in expected spend for 2026 are in Europe (down 9.4%) North America (down 5%), and Asia-Pacific (down 5%). This is expected to lead to a drop in new rigs, both off and onshore, of almost 2% in 2026, according to S&P Global Energy. The oil and gas sector is a significant driver of project cargo demand. Shippers and forwarders operating in this sector have confirmed to the Journal of Commerce that the cargo outlook is not as rosy as it is for the power generation sector. Some oil-related projects saw investors disappear in 2025, with little expectation that they will return in 2026, forwarders said. In the US, economic uncertainty persists, as do concerns over oil supply constraints and uncertainty regarding the latest round of US sanctions. Inventory levels in 2026 are significantly above those seen in 2025 and production growth is forecast to outpace demand growth over the first quarter of 2026. S&P Global Energy assumes that OPEC+ will halt production increases during 2026, but there is no expectation of a reduction in Russian production or exports. This has led S&P Global Energy to forecast an average crude price for 2026 of $50-$60/barrel. Oil majors use an oil price benchmark closer to $70/barrel for investment commitments for exploration and production projects. MPV fleet supply remains tight Growth in the multipurpose vessel (MPV) fleet has been focused on the heavy-lift sector for the past few years, catering to those heavier power generation and wind cargoes. That sector of the fleet is expected to grow by an average annual rate of 4.1% through 2030, according to the Journal of Commerce. Newbuilding orders for the heavy-lift sector continue to trickle in and demolition levels remain low. For the MPV fleet, with heavy-lift capability below 250 tons, growth is projected at less than 1% per year over the same period. Demolition levels for this sector are marginally higher, mainly because this fleet is older, but there is also more competition for these cargoes, and rates are expected to remain at or below current levels for some time. In addition to the risk of falling oil and gas project investment, there are more unknowns that could destabilize parts of the MPV sector in 2026. When the Red Sea eventually reopens for all tonnage, there will be a 10% rise in MPV capacity, according to Journal of Commerce projections. Some of this may be mopped up by short-term port congestion upon reopening, but likely not enough to avoid overcapacity. The geopolitical outlook also remains uncertain, and tariffs continue to affect breakbulk and project cargo trade. That said, patchy cargo demand for some sectors of the fleet could work in shippers’ favor as there will be increased competition for the cargoes that are transported, forwarders say. Contact Susan Oatway at susan.oatway@spglobal.com .

Energy projects

Project cargo

Breakbulk News

‘Lumpy’ project cargo demand to lead to two-tier MPV market

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>Still, the company’s CFO cautioned that no one should “get out over their skis” from the standpoint of freight recovery expectations.</p></div>

Still, the company’s CFO cautioned that no one should “get out over their skis” from the standpoint of freight recovery expectations.

<div class="phx-topic"><p>Old Dominion Freight Lines (ODFL), one of the top US less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers, is “cautiously optimistic” about 2026 despite a decline in fourth-quarter revenue and volume, the company said Wednesday.  </p><p>The carrier believes the US economy and freight demand were showing signs of growth late in the fourth quarter, and that those trends continued through January. </p><p>“We are better positioned than any other carrier to capitalize on an improving economy,” ODFL CEO Marty Freeman said during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call. “We’ve seen some positive signs that we’ve been really pleased with over the past couple of months that have been developing and then the release this week of the ISM, was certainly very positive to see and maybe is an indication of how things will be hopefully for the rest of the year.” </p><p>The ISM, or Institute for Supply Chain Management, reported a manufacturing index of 52.6 for January, up from 47.9 in December. Any figure above 50 indicates economic expansion, but the index had failed to do so for 26 consecutive months until last month. A manufacturing index greater than 47.5 over several months generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy, according to the ISM. </p><p>Industrial freight is more likely to move via LTL, reflecting its higher density and lower cubic footprint. Retail shipments, by contrast, tend to be lighter and more voluminous, often filling a trailer before reaching weight limits. </p><div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="a2e61684-cd67-4f71-a46d-bab789387eb5"></dynamic-object></div><p>ODFL said its shippers have also begun to feel more optimistic. </p><p>“We’ve had feedback that inventories are generally lower, and we are going to see some inventory replenishment,” Freeman said. “We move everything including the kitchen sink, so you got housing starts improving, you’ll [have] things like faucets and so forth with increased demand there.” </p><p>ODFL CFO Adam Satterfield added that shippers have said that increased consumer confidence and buying patterns will eventually result in higher overall LTL demand and volume. </p><p>“We’ve had some really good customer conversations in the sense of what they were anticipating their volumes might look like and the amount of business that they would tender to us,” he said on the call. “Then inventory needs to be replenished and those will all be good things that will find its way onto our trucks.” </p><h3>Q4 revenue down </h3><p>Total revenue for ODFL declined 5.7% year over year to nearly $1.3 billion in the fourth quarter. The company said the decrease was primarily due to a 10.7% decline in LTL tons per day. However, revenue per hundredweight — i.e. the revenue per 100 pounds of freight — rose 5.6% year over year, suggesting ODFL raised rates on shippers to grow its margins, sacrificing volume to do so. </p><p>Satterfield said ODFL is well-positioned to take advantage of the freight recovery when it happens because it has maintained what the company called “cost discipline in a challenging environment.” ODFL closed the year with 21,304 full-time employees, down 5.4% year over year, and it still has excess capacity to absorb a surge in freight. </p><p>Satterfield said ODFL is flexible enough to handle “significant volume growth” without disruption, which has caused the LTL carrier to win market share in previous freight rebounds. </p><p>“We’re definitely prepared for the upcycle,” he said. “We’ve got a little over 35% capacity in our service center network. We’re handling a little over 40,000 shipments per day right now and our network is built to handle more like 55,000 and even more.” </p><p>Still, Satterfield cautioned that no one should “get out over their skis” from the standpoint of recovery expectations. </p><p>“It remains to be seen if this really is going to lead into that spring surge that we would typically see,” he said. “We certainly feel like the stars are coming into alignment, but we felt that way before, and in particular about February and March of last year. So that’s why we continue to say we’re cautiously optimistic about how things might develop for this year.” </p><p><i>Contact Dan Ronan at </i><a href="mailto:contactdanronan@gmail.com"><i>contactdanronan@gmail.com</i></a>.</p></div>

Old Dominion Freight Lines (ODFL), one of the top US less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers, is “cautiously optimistic” about 2026 despite a decline in fourth-quarter revenue and volume, the company said Wednesday. The carrier believes the US economy and freight demand were showing signs of growth late in the fourth quarter, and that those trends continued through January. “We are better positioned than any other carrier to capitalize on an improving economy,” ODFL CEO Marty Freeman said during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call. “We’ve seen some positive signs that we’ve been really pleased with over the past couple of months that have been developing and then the release this week of the ISM, was certainly very positive to see and maybe is an indication of how things will be hopefully for the rest of the year.” The ISM, or Institute for Supply Chain Management, reported a manufacturing index of 52.6 for January, up from 47.9 in December. Any figure above 50 indicates economic expansion, but the index had failed to do so for 26 consecutive months until last month. A manufacturing index greater than 47.5 over several months generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy, according to the ISM. Industrial freight is more likely to move via LTL, reflecting its higher density and lower cubic footprint. Retail shipments, by contrast, tend to be lighter and more voluminous, often filling a trailer before reaching weight limits. ODFL said its shippers have also begun to feel more optimistic. “We’ve had feedback that inventories are generally lower, and we are going to see some inventory replenishment,” Freeman said. “We move everything including the kitchen sink, so you got housing starts improving, you’ll [have] things like faucets and so forth with increased demand there.” ODFL CFO Adam Satterfield added that shippers have said that increased consumer confidence and buying patterns will eventually result in higher overall LTL demand and volume. “We’ve had some really good customer conversations in the sense of what they were anticipating their volumes might look like and the amount of business that they would tender to us,” he said on the call. “Then inventory needs to be replenished and those will all be good things that will find its way onto our trucks.” Q4 revenue down Total revenue for ODFL declined 5.7% year over year to nearly $1.3 billion in the fourth quarter. The company said the decrease was primarily due to a 10.7% decline in LTL tons per day. However, revenue per hundredweight — i.e. the revenue per 100 pounds of freight — rose 5.6% year over year, suggesting ODFL raised rates on shippers to grow its margins, sacrificing volume to do so. Satterfield said ODFL is well-positioned to take advantage of the freight recovery when it happens because it has maintained what the company called “cost discipline in a challenging environment.” ODFL closed the year with 21,304 full-time employees, down 5.4% year over year, and it still has excess capacity to absorb a surge in freight. Satterfield said ODFL is flexible enough to handle “significant volume growth” without disruption, which has caused the LTL carrier to win market share in previous freight rebounds. “We’re definitely prepared for the upcycle,” he said. “We’ve got a little over 35% capacity in our service center network. We’re handling a little over 40,000 shipments per day right now and our network is built to handle more like 55,000 and even more.” Still, Satterfield cautioned that no one should “get out over their skis” from the standpoint of recovery expectations. “It remains to be seen if this really is going to lead into that spring surge that we would typically see,” he said. “We certainly feel like the stars are coming into alignment, but we felt that way before, and in particular about February and March of last year. So that’s why we continue to say we’re cautiously optimistic about how things might develop for this year.” Contact Dan Ronan at contactdanronan@gmail.com .

Trucking News

Surface

ODFL ‘cautiously optimistic’ about LTL demand despite lackluster Q4

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>The decision by the Panama Supreme Court has provoked angry responses from both the Chinese and Hong Kong governments, with Beijing warning that Panama would “pay a heavy price both politically and economically.”</p></div>

The decision by the Panama Supreme Court has provoked angry responses from both the Chinese and Hong Kong governments, with Beijing warning that Panama would “pay a heavy price both politically and economically.”

<div class="phx-topic"><p>Panama Ports Company (PPC) is seeking “extensive damages” after launching arbitration proceedings against the government of Panama following the decision of the country’s Supreme Court last week to void the company’s concessions to operate the Cristobal and Balboa ports. PPC had held the concessions for 28 years. </p><p>The port company, 90% controlled by Hutchison Port Holdings, a subsidiary of Hong Kong-listed conglomerate CK Hutchison, said Wednesday the Panamanian government has already started to take control of the terminals that bookend the Panama Canal even though the court decision has yet to be published and finalized. </p><p>“The steps taken by the state have included unexpected site visits and instructions that PPC provide unrestricted access to physical, commercial, and intellectual property and information, as well as to employees, on the basis that the state is systematizing and executing a port transition plan through coordinated actions of state authorities,” PPC said in a statement. </p><p>APM Terminals (AMPT), which was appointed by the Panama Maritime Authority <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/apmt-to-run-hutchisons-panama-terminals-on-interim-basis-after-court-ruling-6161534">as interim administrator of the two terminals a day after the court’s decision</a>, would not comment on whether it had taken part in the site visits or other actions following the court ruling. </p><p>“At this moment, we have no further comments to share other than what we have released on our website,” an APMT spokesperson said. “For any next steps we refer to the relevant authorities in Panama.” </p><p>CK Hutchison on Wednesday said it “continues to consult with its legal counsel and reserves all rights, including recourse to additional national and international legal proceedings.”  </p><h3>Beijing says Panama will ‘pay a heavy price’ </h3><p>The Supreme Court decision can only be delayed, not overturned, and legal proceedings such as those launched by PPC can linger for years and often go nowhere. The move appears to be more of an effort by Hutchison to show investors that it is exhausting all options even if there is no path forward.  </p><p>The decision by the Panamanian court has provoked an angry response from both the Chinese and Hong Kong governments, with Beijing’s Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office warning Panama would “pay a heavy price both politically and economically.” </p><p>The Hong Kong government said the Panama government “should respect the spirit of contracts and provide a fair and just business environment for companies operating legally there, ensuring that the legitimate rights of enterprises are free from any interference.”  </p><p>Interestingly, in a separate case, a ruling three years ago by Panama’s Supreme Court resulted in the closure of a major copper mine in the country, although there seems to be <a href="https://nam11.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.msn.com%2Fen-us%2Fmoney%2Fother%2Fpanama-and-canada-are-caught-in-a-dispute-over-a-copper-mine%2Far-AA1UL4T1%3Focid%3DBingNewsSerp&amp;data=05%7C02%7Ckevin.saville2%40spglobal.com%7C4a5fd62251cd4285f25808de63f3221d%7C8f3e36ea80394b4081a77dc0599e8645%7C1%7C0%7C639058093052350394%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&amp;sdata=8gpwQrSg12fJdYx5%2FwrCwv4DiH9wtV%2B7213f6JROaOE%3D&amp;reserved=0">developments underway that could result in the mine’s reopening</a>. </p><p><i>Contact Keith Wallis at </i><a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com"><i>keithwallis@hotmail.com</i></a>.</p></div>

Panama Ports Company (PPC) is seeking “extensive damages” after launching arbitration proceedings against the government of Panama following the decision of the country’s Supreme Court last week to void the company’s concessions to operate the Cristobal and Balboa ports. PPC had held the concessions for 28 years. The port company, 90% controlled by Hutchison Port Holdings, a subsidiary of Hong Kong-listed conglomerate CK Hutchison, said Wednesday the Panamanian government has already started to take control of the terminals that bookend the Panama Canal even though the court decision has yet to be published and finalized. “The steps taken by the state have included unexpected site visits and instructions that PPC provide unrestricted access to physical, commercial, and intellectual property and information, as well as to employees, on the basis that the state is systematizing and executing a port transition plan through coordinated actions of state authorities,” PPC said in a statement. APM Terminals (AMPT), which was appointed by the Panama Maritime Authority as interim administrator of the two terminals a day after the court’s decision , would not comment on whether it had taken part in the site visits or other actions following the court ruling. “At this moment, we have no further comments to share other than what we have released on our website,” an APMT spokesperson said. “For any next steps we refer to the relevant authorities in Panama.” CK Hutchison on Wednesday said it “continues to consult with its legal counsel and reserves all rights, including recourse to additional national and international legal proceedings.” Beijing says Panama will ‘pay a heavy price’ The Supreme Court decision can only be delayed, not overturned, and legal proceedings such as those launched by PPC can linger for years and often go nowhere. The move appears to be more of an effort by Hutchison to show investors that it is exhausting all options even if there is no path forward. The decision by the Panamanian court has provoked an angry response from both the Chinese and Hong Kong governments, with Beijing’s Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office warning Panama would “pay a heavy price both politically and economically.” The Hong Kong government said the Panama government “should respect the spirit of contracts and provide a fair and just business environment for companies operating legally there, ensuring that the legitimate rights of enterprises are free from any interference.” Interestingly, in a separate case, a ruling three years ago by Panama’s Supreme Court resulted in the closure of a major copper mine in the country, although there seems to be developments underway that could result in the mine’s reopening . Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

Port News

Marine terminals

International ports

Panama Ports seeks ‘extensive damages’ after terminal concessions canceled

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