<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>Air strikes against Houthi rebel operations are unlikely to deter the Iran-backed militant group from future attacks in the Red Sea, geopolitical analysts warn, suggesting container lines will be routing cargo around southern Africa for the foreseeable future. </p></div>

Air strikes against Houthi rebel operations are unlikely to deter the Iran-backed militant group from future attacks in the Red Sea, geopolitical analysts warn, suggesting container lines will be routing cargo around southern Africa for the foreseeable future.

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<div class="phx-topic"><p>There’s good reason to believe that current vessel diversions away from the Red Sea and Suez Canal in favor of southern Africa routings to avoid Houthi militant attacks will continue for the foreseeable future, according to geopolitical analysts.</p><div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/5252316_1.0.jpg"></img></div><p></p><p>While it’s too soon to determine what impact joint US-UK air strikes on the Houthis will have, experts warn it’s unlikely to deter the Iran-backed group from future attacks. The Houthis — seeing their regional influence rise and galvanized by wider anger among Arab states amid the Israel-Hamas war — have plenty to gain by keeping up their attacks via drones and cruise and ballistic missiles, according to Jack Kennedy, associate director of country risk for the Middle East and North Africa at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence. </p><p>“The group is unlikely to be deterred,” Kennedy told the <i>Journal of Commerce</i>, part of S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence. </p><p>A US aircraft carrier and submarines hit more than 60 Houthi-linked targets at 16 sites in Yemen last week, followed up by two subsequent strikes. </p><p>While the attacks may have helped US forces weaken the ability of militants to target commercial ships, they won’t likely deter the Houthis or their Iranian backers, said Bruce Jones, a geopolitical analyst at the Brookings Institution. Being widely dispersed across western Yemen, the Houthis can easily move, hide and launch drone strikes from anywhere, he said. </p><p>“We should expect to see continued uncertainty in the Red Sea in the days and probably weeks ahead,” Jones said. </p><h2>Houthis flexing new muscle </h2><p>The 30-year Houthi movement has significantly increased its military capacity, having honed it in a recent civil war in Yemen, Kennedy said. The Houthis fought a Western-backed coalition and the Saudi military armed with US-supplied armaments before an April 2022 ceasefire. The militants have capitalized on Yemen’s shared support of the Palestine cause and can leverage its new regional power in negotiations with Saudi Arabia. The Houthis’ declarations of targeting only ships with connections to Israel are most likely an obfuscation, Kennedy added. </p><p>Barring an unforeseen resolution, the Israel-Hamas war will last at least another six months, even as Israeli military intensity eases, creating a ripe environment for Houthi rebels to continue disrupting commercial shipping, Kennedy said. The US-led multinational naval coalition can step up its patrols and attacks on the Houthis’ ground operations, but a US or coalition deployment of ground troops is unlikely. </p><p>“Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are very likely to seek to avoid further escalation that would increase the probability of Houthi strikes into their territory as a means of increasing pressure on the US to de-escalate,” Kennedy wrote in a Jan. 12 report. </p><h2>Vessel capacity available to handle longer transits </h2><p>For the container shipping industry, the routing of services around southern Africa isn’t the end of the world. Shipments are delayed and equipment dislocated, putting upward pressure on container spot rates on the trades from Asia to Europe and North America. But container lines have plenty of ships to deploy on these now-longer services that require more vessels to keep to schedule. Container capacity is expanding 10% this year from 2023 while demand growth will be between 3% to 4%, according to the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO).  </p><p>The Red Sea disruption “could tighten the supply/demand balance,” BIMCO wrote in Jan. 10 report. “Another 3 million TEUs are meanwhile scheduled to be delivered during 2025-2026 and unless recycling increases significantly, the market imbalance appears set to return once the Red Sea situation is resolved.”  </p><p>Recent events don’t suggest that resolution will be anytime soon. Houthi militants vowed revenge after the US-UK air strikes, and four days later, they attacked a US-owned dry bulk carrier, according to <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/2e918f9f-bcb4-47e2-9c15-c70a2a8ade5f">the Financial Time</a><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/2e918f9f-bcb4-47e2-9c15-c70a2a8ade5f">s</a>. On Tuesday, Shell said it would suspend all Red Sea transits after a tanker was attacked, as reported by the <i><a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/shell-suspends-red-sea-shipments-amid-fears-of-more-houthi-attacks-c7fa936d">Wall Street Journal</a></i>.  </p><p><i>Contact Mark Szakonyi at <a href="mailto:mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com">mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com</a>.    </i></p></div>

There’s good reason to believe that current vessel diversions away from the Red Sea and Suez Canal in favor of southern Africa routings to avoid Houthi militant attacks will continue for the foreseeable future, according to geopolitical analysts. While it’s too soon to determine what impact joint US-UK air strikes on the Houthis will have, experts warn it’s unlikely to deter the Iran-backed group from future attacks. The Houthis — seeing their regional influence rise and galvanized by wider anger among Arab states amid the Israel-Hamas war — have plenty to gain by keeping up their attacks via drones and cruise and ballistic missiles, according to Jack Kennedy, associate director of country risk for the Middle East and North Africa at S&P Global Market Intelligence.  “The group is unlikely to be deterred,” Kennedy told the Journal of Commerce, part of S&P Global Market Intelligence.  A US aircraft carrier and submarines hit more than 60 Houthi-linked targets at 16 sites in Yemen last week, followed up by two subsequent strikes.  While the attacks may have helped US forces weaken the ability of militants to target commercial ships, they won’t likely deter the Houthis or their Iranian backers, said Bruce Jones, a geopolitical analyst at the Brookings Institution. Being widely dispersed across western Yemen, the Houthis can easily move, hide and launch drone strikes from anywhere, he said.  “We should expect to see continued uncertainty in the Red Sea in the days and probably weeks ahead,” Jones said.  Houthis flexing new muscle  The 30-year Houthi movement has significantly increased its military capacity, having honed it in a recent civil war in Yemen, Kennedy said. The Houthis fought a Western-backed coalition and the Saudi military armed with US-supplied armaments before an April 2022 ceasefire. The militants have capitalized on Yemen’s shared support of the Palestine cause and can leverage its new regional power in negotiations with Saudi Arabia. The Houthis’ declarations of targeting only ships with connections to Israel are most likely an obfuscation, Kennedy added.  Barring an unforeseen resolution, the Israel-Hamas war will last at least another six months, even as Israeli military intensity eases, creating a ripe environment for Houthi rebels to continue disrupting commercial shipping, Kennedy said. The US-led multinational naval coalition can step up its patrols and attacks on the Houthis’ ground operations, but a US or coalition deployment of ground troops is unlikely.  “Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are very likely to seek to avoid further escalation that would increase the probability of Houthi strikes into their territory as a means of increasing pressure on the US to de-escalate,” Kennedy wrote in a Jan. 12 report.  Vessel capacity available to handle longer transits  For the container shipping industry, the routing of services around southern Africa isn’t the end of the world. Shipments are delayed and equipment dislocated, putting upward pressure on container spot rates on the trades from Asia to Europe and North America. But container lines have plenty of ships to deploy on these now-longer services that require more vessels to keep to schedule. Container capacity is expanding 10% this year from 2023 while demand growth will be between 3% to 4%, according to the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO).   The Red Sea disruption “could tighten the supply/demand balance,” BIMCO wrote in Jan. 10 report. “Another 3 million TEUs are meanwhile scheduled to be delivered during 2025-2026 and unless recycling increases significantly, the market imbalance appears set to return once the Red Sea situation is resolved.”   Recent events don’t suggest that resolution will be anytime soon. Houthi militants vowed revenge after the US-UK air strikes, and four days later, they attacked a US-owned dry bulk carrier, according to the Financial Time s . On Tuesday, Shell said it would suspend all Red Sea transits after a tanker was attacked, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.   Contact Mark Szakonyi at  mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com .    

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