<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">BNSF’s newly announced Barstow International Gateway, with a rail yard, an intermodal terminal, and transload warehouses in Barstow, Calif., has the potential to transform California intermodal traffic with improved throughput and velocity, lower costs, and a reduced environmental impact.</div>

BNSF’s newly announced Barstow International Gateway, with a rail yard, an intermodal terminal, and transload warehouses in Barstow, Calif., has the potential to transform California intermodal traffic with improved throughput and velocity, lower costs, and a reduced environmental impact.

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<div>Innovation has been in somewhat short supply of late in an intermodal rail sector that has been dominated by inwardly focused precision scheduled railroading (PSR) considerations, but now the emphasis seems to be shifting away from cost-cutting and toward growth. Nowhere is that more apparent than in the recent announcement by BNSF Railway that it plans to go “big,” in the form of its proposed <a>Barstow International Gateway (BIG)</a>. More than just another new terminal, this project has the potential to transform the entire Southern California intermodal picture. The shortcomings of the current structure have been clear during the recent...

Innovation has been in somewhat short supply of late in an intermodal rail sector that has been dominated by inwardly focused precision scheduled railroading (PSR) considerations, but now the emphasis seems to be shifting away from cost-cutting and toward growth. Nowhere is that more apparent than in the recent announcement by BNSF Railway that it plans to go “big,” in the form of its proposed Barstow International Gateway (BIG) . More than just another new terminal, this project has the potential to transform the entire Southern California intermodal picture. The shortcomings of the current structure have been clear during the recent supply chain crisis. Direct moves of ISO containers via inland point intermodal (IPI) have been hamstrung by capacity issues and congestion. But aside from the recent gyrations, IPI’s share of the import flows arriving in California has been shrinking for years. The chart shows the percentage of California import TEU that have been emerging from the Southwest region via rail, either intact as IPI or via transload. Since 2016, IPI’s share has dropped from about 30 percent down to about 22 percent. But transload has held steadier at about the 40 percent mark. IPI volume has proven to be more mobile, with beneficial cargo owners (BCOs) having the ability to shift IPI volume from one port routing to another. Meanwhile, transload volume has been “stickier,” as few locales have the extensive infrastructure required. The $1.5 billion BIG will be a 4,100-acre integrated rail facility comprising a rail yard, intermodal terminal, and transload warehouses, all located along the BNSF Transcon route in Barstow, Calif., about 130 freeway miles from the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. To put it another way, in terms of current freight flows, it’s out in the middle of nowhere. But that’s exactly the right place for a facility that has the potential to transform both IPI and transloading out of the largest container port complex in the US. As of today, BNSF originates intermodal traffic out of the LA basin via three options: IPI out of on-dock terminals, IPI and domestic traffic out of Hobart terminal near downtown LA, and domestic traffic out of San Bernadino. All of these facilities are essentially at capacity and landlocked, with little ability to expand their footprint. Further, they are not very well suited for the task of assembling the 14,000-foot-long trains that are preferred in the PSR era. This is particularly true of the on-dock railyards, where building long IPI trains for inland destinations is a complex task of marrying boxes from a variety of carriers, each landing at different terminals. Under the BIG plan, much of this complexity is shifted to Barstow. Smaller, 8,000-foot trains will be assembled in the port and dispatched to Barstow, where much of the sorting task will be performed, either by switching blocks of cars or by wide-span cranes flying boxes from one train to another. More frequent departures and reduced complexity will reduce the dwell time for IPI-bound boxes in the ports. BIG will act as the sorting hub and buffer, dispatching well-blocked 14,000-foot trains to a variety of destinations thousands of miles down the track. As significant as the IPI changes would be, they are actually the smaller part of the equation, because those shuttle trains from the ports to BIG will also be carrying boxes with cargo destined for transloads. Today, transloading takes place in three geographic zones in LA. In all cases, it is necessary to dray the ISO box containing the import load out of the gates of the port. The first zone contains facilities located as close to the port as possible. Reaching these involves a dray costing approximately $250. Once the freight is swung into a domestic box, a further dray is required to reach Hobart Yard, approximately 20 miles and $300 north. For discussion purposes, assume that three ISO 40-foot containers are combined into two domestic 53-foot containers, and the total dray cost is about $675 per 53-foot load. A second transload node is located midway between the ports and Hobart, in the Compton and Carson, Calif., areas. The dray costs involved to use these facilities are about $400 for the inbound ISO leg and another $250 to get the 53-foot container to the rail ramp. This works out to $850 per domestic load. The third option is the Inland Empire, neighborhoods such as Ontario and City of Industry. These involve a much longer dray from the port with a cost of approximately $650 per ISO box and then movement of the domestic container with the transload cargo further east to San Bernadino at a cost of $300, for a total dray content of $1,275 per domestic container loaded. These are all general numbers for discussion and exclude the cost of actually swinging the load from the ISO box into the domestic box. The point is that transloading currently involves dray costs ranging from a low of $675 to as much as $1,275 per 53-foot domestic load produced — a significant cost that under the BIG plan would be almost completely eliminated. Marine containers containing transload cargo would be railed directly from on-dock railyards to the BIG facility, where they would be grounded. The only dray costs involved would be short intra-terminal shuttle moves from the ramp to the transload facilities immediately adjacent and back. Most probably, these moves would be made with all-electric dray tractors, perhaps operating autonomously on non-public roads within the complex. These savings would be more than enough to pay for the facilities and the additional rail and lift costs involved. Yet this description probably understates the savings. The cost of swinging the load will also likely be lower in the new, spacious, state-of-the-art transload facilities that would be built at BIG versus today’s conventional transload docks. The new transloads would incorporate the latest robotics and state-of-the-art material handling techniques, lowering costs. The external benefits would also be significant. In the first eight months of 2022, approximately 1 million transload domestic container moves originated in the Southwest. Continuing with the three-ISO-into-two-domestic-boxes assumption, that implies 1.5 million ISO container moves from port to transload, plus another 1.5 million empty return moves back to the port. This is in addition to the two million domestic container moves between transload facility and intermodal terminal — five million dray moves in all, or about 20,000 moves per day. From a port perspective, transloads generated about 1.5 million outbound gate moves from the port and another 1.5 million inbound empties back through the gates. That equates to over 20,000 dray moves per calendar day and over 12,000 gate moves in and out of the ports per day. Think of how much congestion and ecological impact this activity generates. Even moving just a portion of this activity onto rail shuttle trains would be significant. ESG benefits might extend even further. Most likely, these shuttle trains will be hauled by special low-emission locomotives whose operations will be confined to the LA basin, even while more conventional locomotives would take on the task of handling the long trains east of BIG. Click to enlarge . The BIG project is a long way from reality; construction is not slated to begin until 2025. But if properly executed, this project has the potential to dramatically change the intermodal situation in southern California. Better throughput and velocity, lower costs, and lower environmental impact are among the potential rewards for thinking outside of the box. Contact Lawrence Gross at lgross@intermodalindepth.com and follow him on Twitter @intermodalist .

Rail News

Barstow intermodal project could transform Southern California intermodal picture

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Global cargo capacity has largely recovered to pre-shock levels, while international routes have yet to be seriously affected by jet fuel shortages, according to Xeneta.</div>

Global cargo capacity has largely recovered to pre-shock levels, while international routes have yet to be seriously affected by jet fuel shortages, according to Xeneta.

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<div class="phx-topic">Air cargo markets are adjusting to the disruption caused by the war in the Middle East as capacity returns and supply-demand fundamentals are driven by seasonality and early May holidays rather than conflict-related factors, analysts say. Flower exports from countries such as Colombia and Ecuador shipped to the US and Canada ahead of Mother’s Day on May 10 saw tonnage from Central and South America rising 19% in the last week of April compared to the previous week, according to the latest weekly figures from air freight analyst WorldACD Market Data. Asia-Pacific tonnage in the last week of April rose 3% sequentially, boosted by shipments ahead of May 1 Labor Day holidays in China that extend across several days. “The worst may be behind us,” Niall van de Wouw, chief air freight officer at rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, said of the war-related disruption as rate increases showed signs of easing, even on corridors most impacted by the Middle East conflict. “This is all logical because the spike in air freight rates was driven by a supply issue from the start,” van de Wouw said in an April market update this week. “Now capacity is coming back, (and) rates will come down, but not as quickly as they went up. “The big question is what will be left in terms of demand after all the inflationary pressure, all the uncertainty, and all the tremendous increases in fuel and production costs ease?,” he added. “What will it mean for Q3 and Q4 because everything that has happened in the last few weeks was against a backdrop of a not-too-rosy outlook for 2026?” For now, the Middle East war continues to drive pricing. Global air cargo spot rates surged 30% year over year in April to $3.34 per kilogram, the highest level since October 2022, according to Xeneta. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="1f8878b6-9e77-46fc-bdf5-c1982da8007e"></dynamic-object></div>Data from the last week of April by WorldACD showed significant year over year rate increases on several trade lanes. Routes out of the Middle East and South Asia saw average rates up 65% compared to the same week last year at $4.65 per kilogram. Rates out of North America rose 60% to $2.65/kg, and jumped 41% out of Asia-Pacific at $5.11/kg. Meanwhile, rates were up 40% out of Africa at $2.86/kg and up 32% out of Europe at $2.87/kg. Freightos pegged China to Europe rates at $5.30/kg as of May 3, up 4.5% on the week and 52% higher year over year. While WorldACD also noted that rates were rising at a slower pace than in the initial weeks after the Feb. 28 start of the war in the Middle East, “the closure again of the Strait of Hormuz, further increases in fuel prices, and no end in sight to the confrontation mean we may expect continuing high air cargo spot rates and further increases in the coming weeks linked to the costs and availability of jet fuel.” <h3>Carriers can’t absorb fuel cost burden </h3>Jet fuel prices surged through March and April, hitting their highest point in 23 years, with reduced petroleum shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and refinery constraints tightening global aviation fuel availability, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). “All eyes are on fuel supply and price, which are expected to test the industry’s resilience in the coming months,” Willie Walsh, IATA’s director-general, said in the association’s April market update. Van de Wouw said the margins between crude oil and refined jet fuel have now exceeded the peaks recorded during the pandemic, adding a cost burden that carriers cannot easily absorb or ignore. Still, the stabilizing of air freight markets as capacity returns will be welcomed by shippers that have been postponing Q3 and Q4 tenders with freight forwarders while waiting for the market to normalize, van de Wouw said. “Global cargo capacity has largely recovered to pre-shock levels, and the jet fuel shortage, though reportedly spreading, has yet to grip long-haul intercontinental routes at scale,” he said. “If those conditions hold, spot rates should ease in the weeks ahead and deliver some reprieve for shippers who have grown accustomed to unwelcome surprises.” Also cautiously optimistic was IATA’s Walsh. “The underlying demand trends, at this point, appear strong, and the recent World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund revisions to trade and GDP projections continue to see growth in 2026,” he said. “Importantly, air cargo networks are providing the flexibility needed to support global supply chains as they adjust to geopolitical, tariff and operational strains,” Walsh added. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Air cargo markets are adjusting to the disruption caused by the war in the Middle East as capacity returns and supply-demand fundamentals are driven by seasonality and early May holidays rather than conflict-related factors, analysts say. Flower exports from countries such as Colombia and Ecuador shipped to the US and Canada ahead of Mother’s Day on May 10 saw tonnage from Central and South America rising 19% in the last week of April compared to the previous week, according to the latest weekly figures from air freight analyst WorldACD Market Data. Asia-Pacific tonnage in the last week of April rose 3% sequentially, boosted by shipments ahead of May 1 Labor Day holidays in China that extend across several days. “The worst may be behind us,” Niall van de Wouw, chief air freight officer at rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, said of the war-related disruption as rate increases showed signs of easing, even on corridors most impacted by the Middle East conflict. “This is all logical because the spike in air freight rates was driven by a supply issue from the start,” van de Wouw said in an April market update this week. “Now capacity is coming back, (and) rates will come down, but not as quickly as they went up. “The big question is what will be left in terms of demand after all the inflationary pressure, all the uncertainty, and all the tremendous increases in fuel and production costs ease?,” he added. “What will it mean for Q3 and Q4 because everything that has happened in the last few weeks was against a backdrop of a not-too-rosy outlook for 2026?” For now, the Middle East war continues to drive pricing. Global air cargo spot rates surged 30% year over year in April to $3.34 per kilogram, the highest level since October 2022, according to Xeneta. Data from the last week of April by WorldACD showed significant year over year rate increases on several trade lanes. Routes out of the Middle East and South Asia saw average rates up 65% compared to the same week last year at $4.65 per kilogram. Rates out of North America rose 60% to $2.65/kg, and jumped 41% out of Asia-Pacific at $5.11/kg. Meanwhile, rates were up 40% out of Africa at $2.86/kg and up 32% out of Europe at $2.87/kg. Freightos pegged China to Europe rates at $5.30/kg as of May 3, up 4.5% on the week and 52% higher year over year. While WorldACD also noted that rates were rising at a slower pace than in the initial weeks after the Feb. 28 start of the war in the Middle East, “the closure again of the Strait of Hormuz, further increases in fuel prices, and no end in sight to the confrontation mean we may expect continuing high air cargo spot rates and further increases in the coming weeks linked to the costs and availability of jet fuel.” Carriers can’t absorb fuel cost burden Jet fuel prices surged through March and April, hitting their highest point in 23 years, with reduced petroleum shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and refinery constraints tightening global aviation fuel availability, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). “All eyes are on fuel supply and price, which are expected to test the industry’s resilience in the coming months,” Willie Walsh, IATA’s director-general, said in the association’s April market update. Van de Wouw said the margins between crude oil and refined jet fuel have now exceeded the peaks recorded during the pandemic, adding a cost burden that carriers cannot easily absorb or ignore. Still, the stabilizing of air freight markets as capacity returns will be welcomed by shippers that have been postponing Q3 and Q4 tenders with freight forwarders while waiting for the market to normalize, van de Wouw said. “Global cargo capacity has largely recovered to pre-shock levels, and the jet fuel shortage, though reportedly spreading, has yet to grip long-haul intercontinental routes at scale,” he said. “If those conditions hold, spot rates should ease in the weeks ahead and deliver some reprieve for shippers who have grown accustomed to unwelcome surprises.” Also cautiously optimistic was IATA’s Walsh. “The underlying demand trends, at this point, appear strong, and the recent World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund revisions to trade and GDP projections continue to see growth in 2026,” he said. “Importantly, air cargo networks are providing the flexibility needed to support global supply chains as they adjust to geopolitical, tariff and operational strains,” Walsh added. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Air Cargo Carriers News

Air Cargo

Air freight supply-demand factors adjust to war-disrupted market

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Georgia Ports Authority will fund and initiate its own study for dredging and widening its ship channel and harbor as the US Army Corps of Engineers may lack the funds in 2027. </div>

The Georgia Ports Authority will fund and initiate its own study for dredging and widening its ship channel and harbor as the US Army Corps of Engineers may lack the funds in 2027.

<div class="phx-topic">The Port of Savannah wants to prepare for handling ultra-large container ships by funding its own study on deepening and widening its harbor, sidestepping regular federal funding in hopes of speedier approval for the project. The Georgia Ports Authority (GPA) said in a statement it submitted a letter of intent to the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to formally begin a study on deepening and widening Savannah Harbor, which is currently at a federally authorized depth of 49 feet along its ship channel while its inner harbor is at a 47-foot depth. The inner harbor and channel span widths between 500 feet and 600 feet. The GPA is doing the study under a section of the 1986 Water Resources Development Act that allows non-federal agencies to fully fund their own studies without the USACE, which typically pays half of the funding of any study. The Savannah study still has to be reviewed by the USACE before the project receives approval. There was no timeline given for when the study would be completed; the USACE has 180 days for review once the study has been received. The GPA said it was undertaking the study “as a way to accelerate dredging timelines and save taxpayer funds.” The study will determine the appropriate depth for the Savannah Harbor and the entrance to its river “to better serve the largest ships currently serving Savannah, and to prepare for even larger, more efficient vessels expected to serve the US East Coast in the future,” the GPA said, adding that it’s also considering passing lanes for two-way ship traffic. <h3>Problems will be ‘exacerbated’ without harbor deepening </h3>The Savannah Harbor study is authorized under USACE’s 2026 investigations, with a total estimated cost of $3 million. The 2026 USACE budget has set aside $500,000 for its share of the project this year. But due to the Trump administration’s cuts to the agency’s budget, the USACE only expects to receive $80,000 for the study in 2027. The USACE said in its 2026 investigations workplan that the deepening was needed because the last deepening completed in March 2022 was designed for 8,200-TEU vessels calling Savannah, “whereas vessels of 14,000 to 16,000 TEU regularly call on the port, and even larger vessels, 20,000 TEU or more, exist in the global fleet and could call in the future.” “Light loading and tidal delays are expected to increase as throughput increases,” the USACE said. “Existing vessels experience problems associated with turning capabilities and overall maneuverability in certain reaches of the inner harbor, which will be exacerbated as vessel size continues to increase.” While 2026 and 2027 could be flat-to-down years for Savannah’s volumes, the GPA released a forecast at the Georgia International Trade Conference last week indicating it expects cargo volumes to reach 8.8 million TEUs in 2036, marking roughly 4% average annual growth from 2025. Savannah is preparing for the growth with new terminal infrastructure, including expanding container handling at <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/gpa-names-next-ceo-as-savannah-readies-for-new-growth-phase-6167449">its under-utilized Ocean Terminal</a> as well as building an entirely new facility, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/more-carrier-controlled-terminal-operations-could-be-coming-to-the-east-coast-6207482">the Savannah Container Terminal</a>. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The Port of Savannah wants to prepare for handling ultra-large container ships by funding its own study on deepening and widening its harbor, sidestepping regular federal funding in hopes of speedier approval for the project. The Georgia Ports Authority (GPA) said in a statement it submitted a letter of intent to the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to formally begin a study on deepening and widening Savannah Harbor, which is currently at a federally authorized depth of 49 feet along its ship channel while its inner harbor is at a 47-foot depth. The inner harbor and channel span widths between 500 feet and 600 feet. The GPA is doing the study under a section of the 1986 Water Resources Development Act that allows non-federal agencies to fully fund their own studies without the USACE, which typically pays half of the funding of any study. The Savannah study still has to be reviewed by the USACE before the project receives approval. There was no timeline given for when the study would be completed; the USACE has 180 days for review once the study has been received. The GPA said it was undertaking the study “as a way to accelerate dredging timelines and save taxpayer funds.” The study will determine the appropriate depth for the Savannah Harbor and the entrance to its river “to better serve the largest ships currently serving Savannah, and to prepare for even larger, more efficient vessels expected to serve the US East Coast in the future,” the GPA said, adding that it’s also considering passing lanes for two-way ship traffic. Problems will be ‘exacerbated’ without harbor deepening The Savannah Harbor study is authorized under USACE’s 2026 investigations, with a total estimated cost of $3 million. The 2026 USACE budget has set aside $500,000 for its share of the project this year. But due to the Trump administration’s cuts to the agency’s budget, the USACE only expects to receive $80,000 for the study in 2027. The USACE said in its 2026 investigations workplan that the deepening was needed because the last deepening completed in March 2022 was designed for 8,200-TEU vessels calling Savannah, “whereas vessels of 14,000 to 16,000 TEU regularly call on the port, and even larger vessels, 20,000 TEU or more, exist in the global fleet and could call in the future.” “Light loading and tidal delays are expected to increase as throughput increases,” the USACE said. “Existing vessels experience problems associated with turning capabilities and overall maneuverability in certain reaches of the inner harbor, which will be exacerbated as vessel size continues to increase.” While 2026 and 2027 could be flat-to-down years for Savannah’s volumes, the GPA released a forecast at the Georgia International Trade Conference last week indicating it expects cargo volumes to reach 8.8 million TEUs in 2036, marking roughly 4% average annual growth from 2025. Savannah is preparing for the growth with new terminal infrastructure, including expanding container handling at its under-utilized Ocean Terminal as well as building an entirely new facility, the Savannah Container Terminal . Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Port News

Port infrastructure

North American ports

Container Shipping News

Maritime

Savannah to fund its own study on readying port for big ships

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">US shippers of oversized cargo are being buoyed by positivity and strong demand in the Americas, but are struggling with capacity challenges and the uncertain geopolitical backdrop. </div>

US shippers of oversized cargo are being buoyed by positivity and strong demand in the Americas, but are struggling with capacity challenges and the uncertain geopolitical backdrop.

<div class="phx-topic">Caught between the volatile Middle East and the domestic promise of the Americas, sentiment among breakbulk and project cargo shippers has shifted from "how do we survive?" to "how do we scale?" In conversations at the Journal of Commerce’s recent Breakbulk and Project Cargo Conference 2026 in New Orleans, a cautious, localized, and almost defiant optimism prevailed among shippers of out-of-gauge cargoes. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6214892_0.1.jpg"></img></div>With the shifting geopolitical landscape, the Americas — specifically Venezuela and Guyana — are poised to play a dominant role in pivoting from Middle Eastern energy dependence. "Countries within the Americas probably will play a more important role in the upcoming years, and oil and gas is one of the key aspects," one shipper speaking to the Journal of Commerce noted. That regional focus is driving a "bullish" outlook for many shippers, despite a backdrop of global instability. Between chip plant expansions in Phoenix and a growing rail network with Mexico, the shipper said the sheer volume of activity is staggering. However, a pinch in transportation capacity could scupper the project refocus before it finds its feet, another shipper said. The source expressed “deep concerns over rail capacity and the availability of specialized equipment,” with the energy sector already struggling. Companies are now being forced into long-term barge and rail car leases — a move once considered unnecessary — while the heavy-haul market is facing a similar squeeze, forcing companies to award contracts two years in advance rather than the traditional six months. <h3>Shift in workforce demographics </h3>Another pervasive theme on shippers’ minds at the Breakbulk26 was the scarcity of "institutional knowledge." One shipper said the industry is facing a "silver tsunami" of retirements, and that the gap between veteran experience and the incoming Gen Z workforce is widening. Shippers criticized the "cubicle culture" where employees understand their specific niche but lack the holistic "chief cook and bottle washer" mentality of previous generations. "There's a real disconnect between that guy sitting in a cubicle and what a dock looks like," another shipper said, emphasizing that hands-on experience is becoming the industry's most valuable currency. While technology and AI were noted as tools for efficiency, including digital twins and autonomous trucks, shippers speaking to the Journal of Commerce agreed that logistics remains a relationship business. The COVID-19 pandemic served as a brutal but effective marketing campaign for the sector. As one industry veteran said: "Every single person now knows what supply chain is... [COVID] created for all of us a huge opportunity to be able to say what we do is important." Another source urged the industry to showcase that project cargo isn’t just a job, but an international career of choice. “The cargo is coming, the projects are funded, and the Americas are ready, but can we train the next generation fast enough to catch the wave?,” the source wondered. Contact Carly Fields at <a href="mailto:carly.fields@spglobal.com">carly.fields@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Caught between the volatile Middle East and the domestic promise of the Americas, sentiment among breakbulk and project cargo shippers has shifted from "how do we survive?" to "how do we scale?" In conversations at the Journal of Commerce’s recent Breakbulk and Project Cargo Conference 2026 in New Orleans, a cautious, localized, and almost defiant optimism prevailed among shippers of out-of-gauge cargoes. With the shifting geopolitical landscape, the Americas — specifically Venezuela and Guyana — are poised to play a dominant role in pivoting from Middle Eastern energy dependence. "Countries within the Americas probably will play a more important role in the upcoming years, and oil and gas is one of the key aspects," one shipper speaking to the Journal of Commerce noted. That regional focus is driving a "bullish" outlook for many shippers, despite a backdrop of global instability. Between chip plant expansions in Phoenix and a growing rail network with Mexico, the shipper said the sheer volume of activity is staggering. However, a pinch in transportation capacity could scupper the project refocus before it finds its feet, another shipper said. The source expressed “deep concerns over rail capacity and the availability of specialized equipment,” with the energy sector already struggling. Companies are now being forced into long-term barge and rail car leases — a move once considered unnecessary — while the heavy-haul market is facing a similar squeeze, forcing companies to award contracts two years in advance rather than the traditional six months. Shift in workforce demographics Another pervasive theme on shippers’ minds at the Breakbulk26 was the scarcity of "institutional knowledge." One shipper said the industry is facing a "silver tsunami" of retirements, and that the gap between veteran experience and the incoming Gen Z workforce is widening. Shippers criticized the "cubicle culture" where employees understand their specific niche but lack the holistic "chief cook and bottle washer" mentality of previous generations. "There's a real disconnect between that guy sitting in a cubicle and what a dock looks like," another shipper said, emphasizing that hands-on experience is becoming the industry's most valuable currency. While technology and AI were noted as tools for efficiency, including digital twins and autonomous trucks, shippers speaking to the Journal of Commerce agreed that logistics remains a relationship business. The COVID-19 pandemic served as a brutal but effective marketing campaign for the sector. As one industry veteran said: "Every single person now knows what supply chain is... [COVID] created for all of us a huge opportunity to be able to say what we do is important." Another source urged the industry to showcase that project cargo isn’t just a job, but an international career of choice. “The cargo is coming, the projects are funded, and the Americas are ready, but can we train the next generation fast enough to catch the wave?,” the source wondered. Contact Carly Fields at carly.fields@spglobal.com .

Project cargo

Resilience, relationships still trump technology in project cargo

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">A long-term decline in US forest product production is being accelerated by the increasing use of composite materials that require less wood and trade policy complications abroad. </div>

A long-term decline in US forest product production is being accelerated by the increasing use of composite materials that require less wood and trade policy complications abroad.

<div class="phx-topic">(The following story appears in the Top 100 Importers and Exporters issue of the Journal of Commerce magazine published on May 4, 2026.) Stagnant home sales, increased demand for composite materials, and trade policy uncertainty are extending a multiyear decline in US paper and forest product exports, according to manufacturers and forwarders in the sector. Industrial production of wood products decreased 2.9% year over year in February 2026, while capacity utilization dropped 4.2% over the same period, according to the US Federal Reserve. Capacity utilization has plunged 30% since the base year of 2017 as the sector struggles to survive. With housing supply exceeding demand in certain US regions and alternative materials taking share from traditional wood used in flooring, furniture and home construction, several producers of paper and forest products reduced production, shuttered sawmills or sold their businesses last year. As a result, outbound containerized shipments of those products plummeted 12% year over year in 2025, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Export volumes have dropped at a compound annual rate of 7.3% in the last five years, with total shipments down nearly one-third from 2020 levels. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="bfd65c6e-9bdb-43b6-8c61-23fd06e7f420"></dynamic-object></div>Canfor, a large paper and forest product manufacturer, has closed nine sawmills in the last three years, including two last year. “[We] continue to be impacted by weak global pulp and paper markets with ongoing trade disputes and broader economic uncertainty contributing to elevated inventory levels and weak pricing through much of 2025 and continuing into 2026,” CEO Stephen MacKie said during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call March 6. Lumber producer Interfor shut down two sawmills in the US last year amid what it described as “historically weak” lumber prices. “Repair and remodel, largely influenced by home purchases, is expected to remain relatively flat,” Bart Bender, Interfor’s senior vice president of sales, said during a Feb. 13 earnings call. “Turning to supply, we’re seeing the impact of production curtailments across the industry. Some are formally announced, many are not.” Like its competitors, West Fraser closed two sawmills last year and reported operating losses in the fourth quarter for North American paper, pulp and forest products. “Since 2022, we have removed over 1.1 billion board feet of capacity through mill closures and permanent shift reductions, representing a 16% decrease in the company's lumber operating capacity,” CEO Sean McLaren told analysts during West Fraser’s Feb. 13 earnings call. “We’ve also reduced the number of shifts or hours of operations at various lumber mills as a means to manage cost.” <h3>Popular alternatives </h3>Although demand for flooring and furniture has not disappeared, a shift toward composite materials that require less wood is accelerating the decline in forest product production and, in turn, exports. “Composites have been eating the lumber industry’s lunch for the last half-decade,” Stephen Zambo, CEO of the AGL Group, a freight forwarder specializing in paper and forest products, told the Journal of Commerce. “The products are no longer fully made out of lumber; it’s maybe 20% of the item now instead of 100%.” Engineered materials, plastics, and other substitutes are replacing traditional hardwood components in the US and abroad. Zambo said the shift is evident at major industry trade shows, where exhibit booths displaying hardwood have been displaced by engineered and synthetic products. “Hardwood is turning into a luxury product,” he said. “A lot of companies are either getting bought or just shutting down because the margins aren’t worth the capital.” Increasing regulatory requirements in major markets abroad are adding further pressure on exports, according to the American Forest &amp; Paper Association (AF&amp;PA). For example, the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), enforcement of which is scheduled to begin at the end of 2026, “continues to represent a technical barrier to trade for US forest products into the EU, with many compliance uncertainties unaddressed,” AF&amp;PA said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce. “These evolving trade policy initiatives, alongside freight and vessel availability, and port and inland logistics constraints, shape export flows and planning decisions,” the group added. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="28c8a7e4-fba3-43c3-855f-8d3e2953746e"></dynamic-object></div>Zambo said the imposition of 125% reciprocal tariffs on US lumber by China, formerly the largest export destination by a wide margin, didn’t put too big of a dent in overall volumes, but it has shifted a large portion of those shipments to Vietnam. Indeed, Vietnam became the largest consumer of US paper and forest last year, accounting for 15.8% of exports, up from 6.2% in 2024, while mainland China’s share tumbled to 15.6% from 29%, according to PIERS. “What we’re seeing now is logs going over to Vietnam, being sawn into lumber, and then sent into other markets like China,” Zambo said. “China is consuming the same amount. It’s just not coming directly from the US anymore.” Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

(The following story appears in the Top 100 Importers and Exporters issue of the Journal of Commerce magazine published on May 4, 2026.) Stagnant home sales, increased demand for composite materials, and trade policy uncertainty are extending a multiyear decline in US paper and forest product exports, according to manufacturers and forwarders in the sector. Industrial production of wood products decreased 2.9% year over year in February 2026, while capacity utilization dropped 4.2% over the same period, according to the US Federal Reserve. Capacity utilization has plunged 30% since the base year of 2017 as the sector struggles to survive. With housing supply exceeding demand in certain US regions and alternative materials taking share from traditional wood used in flooring, furniture and home construction, several producers of paper and forest products reduced production, shuttered sawmills or sold their businesses last year. As a result, outbound containerized shipments of those products plummeted 12% year over year in 2025, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Export volumes have dropped at a compound annual rate of 7.3% in the last five years, with total shipments down nearly one-third from 2020 levels. Canfor, a large paper and forest product manufacturer, has closed nine sawmills in the last three years, including two last year. “[We] continue to be impacted by weak global pulp and paper markets with ongoing trade disputes and broader economic uncertainty contributing to elevated inventory levels and weak pricing through much of 2025 and continuing into 2026,” CEO Stephen MacKie said during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call March 6. Lumber producer Interfor shut down two sawmills in the US last year amid what it described as “historically weak” lumber prices. “Repair and remodel, largely influenced by home purchases, is expected to remain relatively flat,” Bart Bender, Interfor’s senior vice president of sales, said during a Feb. 13 earnings call. “Turning to supply, we’re seeing the impact of production curtailments across the industry. Some are formally announced, many are not.” Like its competitors, West Fraser closed two sawmills last year and reported operating losses in the fourth quarter for North American paper, pulp and forest products. “Since 2022, we have removed over 1.1 billion board feet of capacity through mill closures and permanent shift reductions, representing a 16% decrease in the company's lumber operating capacity,” CEO Sean McLaren told analysts during West Fraser’s Feb. 13 earnings call. “We’ve also reduced the number of shifts or hours of operations at various lumber mills as a means to manage cost.” Popular alternatives Although demand for flooring and furniture has not disappeared, a shift toward composite materials that require less wood is accelerating the decline in forest product production and, in turn, exports. “Composites have been eating the lumber industry’s lunch for the last half-decade,” Stephen Zambo, CEO of the AGL Group, a freight forwarder specializing in paper and forest products, told the Journal of Commerce. “The products are no longer fully made out of lumber; it’s maybe 20% of the item now instead of 100%.” Engineered materials, plastics, and other substitutes are replacing traditional hardwood components in the US and abroad. Zambo said the shift is evident at major industry trade shows, where exhibit booths displaying hardwood have been displaced by engineered and synthetic products. “Hardwood is turning into a luxury product,” he said. “A lot of companies are either getting bought or just shutting down because the margins aren’t worth the capital.” Increasing regulatory requirements in major markets abroad are adding further pressure on exports, according to the American Forest & Paper Association (AF&PA). For example, the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), enforcement of which is scheduled to begin at the end of 2026, “continues to represent a technical barrier to trade for US forest products into the EU, with many compliance uncertainties unaddressed,” AF&PA said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce. “These evolving trade policy initiatives, alongside freight and vessel availability, and port and inland logistics constraints, shape export flows and planning decisions,” the group added. Zambo said the imposition of 125% reciprocal tariffs on US lumber by China, formerly the largest export destination by a wide margin, didn’t put too big of a dent in overall volumes, but it has shifted a large portion of those shipments to Vietnam. Indeed, Vietnam became the largest consumer of US paper and forest last year, accounting for 15.8% of exports, up from 6.2% in 2024, while mainland China’s share tumbled to 15.6% from 29%, according to PIERS. “What we’re seeing now is logs going over to Vietnam, being sawn into lumber, and then sent into other markets like China,” Zambo said. “China is consuming the same amount. It’s just not coming directly from the US anymore.” Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

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<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The long-term prospect for diesel costs and fuel surcharges is pushing US truck shippers to rethink how they move freight, and even to redesign networks. </div>

The long-term prospect for diesel costs and fuel surcharges is pushing US truck shippers to rethink how they move freight, and even to redesign networks.

<div class="phx-topic">Diesel prices stuck above $5 per gallon are adding significantly to US trucking costs, squeezing shippers between rising rates and fuel surcharges and tightening capacity, with continued geopolitical uncertainty making a return to lower fuel prices unlikely for the foreseeable future. Companies such as packaged meats manufacturer Smithfield Foods are considering multiple options to control costs. “We’ve done lane consolidation, [we’re] <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/soaring-truck-rates-power-major-rebound-in-domestic-intermodal-volume-6208736">adding intermodal</a>,” Smithfield’s CEO Charles Shane Smith said on an earnings call last week in response to a question about the impact of rising fuel prices. The Virginia-based company eliminated one million road miles in 2025 by optimizing its transportation network and expects to take another million miles off the road in 2026. “We’re still looking at hedging opportunities for diesel where we can, driving fewer miles,” Smith said. But higher oil and fuel prices ripple throughout Smithfield’s freight, packaging and agricultural costs. Soaring oil prices also affect the cost of resin-based packaging, for example, and the cost of agricultural feed supporting hog production, Smith said. Andrew Silvernail, CEO of International Paper, noted that rising freight costs are not passed through directly, but recovered “through pricing over time.” “Diesel prices are putting pressure on costs across the supply chain,” Silvernail said during an earnings call last week. “Combined with an exceptionally tight freight market, this remains a strong headwind.” Fuel’s headwinds are both global and domestic, with the impact of higher fuel costs on ocean and air cargo rippling deep into trucking and rail networks, putting pressure on transportation rates shippers pay and, eventually, the costs of goods to their customers. The average price of diesel fuel in the US has been above $5 per gallon since March 16, according to the US Energy Information Administration. It was $3.81 per gallon when the war began. In 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the US average diesel price stayed above $5 per gallon for 21 weeks, averaging $5.43 per gallon from March into early August. It spiked north of $5 per gallon again for 11 weeks from late August through November of that year. <h3>Dislocated freight drives costs </h3>War-linked <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/cost-hit-ocean-carriers-roll-out-series-of-rate-increases-fuel-surcharges-6202474">bunker fuel surcharges</a> are raising costs for US importers and <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/middle-east-fuel-shock-exacerbates-rising-us-ag-export-costs-6213888">exporters</a>, and ocean shipping lines are trying to constrain costs through increased direct sailings and slow steaming. Soaring jet fuel costs are grounding <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/rising-jet-fuel-costs-challenging-freighter-viability-as-war-enters-second-month-6199130">air cargo capacity</a>. That’s already leading to some mismatch between freight and capacity once shipments arrive in the US, and that dislocation means more truck miles and higher fuel costs. “People who had lead times built into supply chains, those lead times have been compressed,” Ryan Carter, executive vice president of the Americas at AIT Worldwide Logistics, told the Journal of Commerce. Global disruption — whether caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz or a pandemic — expedites demand, he said. “Time is your most valuable commodity,” Carter said. “We’ve seen an increase in tie-ins [between international and domestic transportation] that claws back time for those sourcing goods internationally that’s been lost since the conflict began.” Shippers need to be aware of the total cost impact from higher oil prices, said Jenny Vander Zanden, COO of Breakthrough, a transportation technology firm specializing in fuel cost management. “Part of that is understanding the difference between diesel and gasoline price dynamics,” Vander Zanden told the Journal of Commerce. Gas prices tend to fluctuate in sync with oil prices, but not diesel prices. One reason is that gasoline prices tend to be “elastic,” while diesel prices are not. When gasoline prices surge, consumers can, to an extent, cut back on fuel use. It’s much harder for diesel-using truckers and farmers to make fewer trips or plow fewer acres. “When I go to Walmart, I need my stuff — I don’t care if diesel prices are going higher,” said Keith Prather, managing director at Armada Corporate Intelligence. Walmart has to cover the higher diesel price to ensure goods are on its shelves for consumers. “I don’t think diesel prices are going to snap back” if oil prices drop, Prather told the Journal of Commerce. “It’s a question of how long diesel prices stay up.” <h3>Intermodal moment </h3>Intermodal rail is likely to <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/tailwinds-for-us-intermodal-volume-growth-strengthening-analyst-6206045">gain more business</a> the longer fuel prices remain elevated. “A revisit with intermodal is needed to think about strategic road maps to transportation,” Vander Zanden said. “There are some real savings opportunities with intermodal.” The Journal of Commerce Intermodal Savings Index (ISI) shows why that’s the case. In March, the ISI intermodal contract rate, including fuel, was up 8 cents year over year at $1.65 per mile. At $2.34 per mile, the truckload contract rate was up 50 cents from a year ago. That all-inclusive truckload contract rate leapt 14.8% year over year, with higher fuel costs accounting for more than 1,000 basis points of the increase, according to a Journal of Commerce analysis. Sans fuel, the ISI truckload rate was up only 4.4% year over year. That’s a clear indication of how much shippers are really paying in higher fuel costs. Shifting freight to intermodal is part of an answer, but shippers need to find ways to rein in miles driven by their carriers as well, especially deadhead or empty miles. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="a1244989-1fd3-41a3-9782-0bf65208b331"></dynamic-object></div>If fuel costs remain elevated for months, rather than weeks, shippers will face even more pressure to rethink transportation networks. Uber Freight says the number of shippers approaching the logistics provider for network optimization is rising fast. That’s especially true for companies that shrank their inventory in late 2025 and now face high replenishment costs. “There was a big push among many companies to reduce inventory in late 2025, with the expectation they could replenish in the first quarter,” Bob Daymon, head of client freight for Uber Freight, told the Journal of Commerce. “They’re finding costs are considerably higher than they expected,” Daymon said. Shippers have “drawn mental lines” based on how long the war in the Middle East and high fuel prices last, he said, adding: “I see the queue filling up with requests for network optimization.” Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Diesel prices stuck above $5 per gallon are adding significantly to US trucking costs, squeezing shippers between rising rates and fuel surcharges and tightening capacity, with continued geopolitical uncertainty making a return to lower fuel prices unlikely for the foreseeable future. Companies such as packaged meats manufacturer Smithfield Foods are considering multiple options to control costs. “We’ve done lane consolidation, [we’re] adding intermodal ,” Smithfield’s CEO Charles Shane Smith said on an earnings call last week in response to a question about the impact of rising fuel prices. The Virginia-based company eliminated one million road miles in 2025 by optimizing its transportation network and expects to take another million miles off the road in 2026. “We’re still looking at hedging opportunities for diesel where we can, driving fewer miles,” Smith said. But higher oil and fuel prices ripple throughout Smithfield’s freight, packaging and agricultural costs. Soaring oil prices also affect the cost of resin-based packaging, for example, and the cost of agricultural feed supporting hog production, Smith said. Andrew Silvernail, CEO of International Paper, noted that rising freight costs are not passed through directly, but recovered “through pricing over time.” “Diesel prices are putting pressure on costs across the supply chain,” Silvernail said during an earnings call last week. “Combined with an exceptionally tight freight market, this remains a strong headwind.” Fuel’s headwinds are both global and domestic, with the impact of higher fuel costs on ocean and air cargo rippling deep into trucking and rail networks, putting pressure on transportation rates shippers pay and, eventually, the costs of goods to their customers. The average price of diesel fuel in the US has been above $5 per gallon since March 16, according to the US Energy Information Administration. It was $3.81 per gallon when the war began. In 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the US average diesel price stayed above $5 per gallon for 21 weeks, averaging $5.43 per gallon from March into early August. It spiked north of $5 per gallon again for 11 weeks from late August through November of that year. Dislocated freight drives costs War-linked bunker fuel surcharges are raising costs for US importers and exporters , and ocean shipping lines are trying to constrain costs through increased direct sailings and slow steaming. Soaring jet fuel costs are grounding air cargo capacity . That’s already leading to some mismatch between freight and capacity once shipments arrive in the US, and that dislocation means more truck miles and higher fuel costs. “People who had lead times built into supply chains, those lead times have been compressed,” Ryan Carter, executive vice president of the Americas at AIT Worldwide Logistics, told the Journal of Commerce. Global disruption — whether caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz or a pandemic — expedites demand, he said. “Time is your most valuable commodity,” Carter said. “We’ve seen an increase in tie-ins [between international and domestic transportation] that claws back time for those sourcing goods internationally that’s been lost since the conflict began.” Shippers need to be aware of the total cost impact from higher oil prices, said Jenny Vander Zanden, COO of Breakthrough, a transportation technology firm specializing in fuel cost management. “Part of that is understanding the difference between diesel and gasoline price dynamics,” Vander Zanden told the Journal of Commerce. Gas prices tend to fluctuate in sync with oil prices, but not diesel prices. One reason is that gasoline prices tend to be “elastic,” while diesel prices are not. When gasoline prices surge, consumers can, to an extent, cut back on fuel use. It’s much harder for diesel-using truckers and farmers to make fewer trips or plow fewer acres. “When I go to Walmart, I need my stuff — I don’t care if diesel prices are going higher,” said Keith Prather, managing director at Armada Corporate Intelligence. Walmart has to cover the higher diesel price to ensure goods are on its shelves for consumers. “I don’t think diesel prices are going to snap back” if oil prices drop, Prather told the Journal of Commerce. “It’s a question of how long diesel prices stay up.” Intermodal moment Intermodal rail is likely to gain more business the longer fuel prices remain elevated. “A revisit with intermodal is needed to think about strategic road maps to transportation,” Vander Zanden said. “There are some real savings opportunities with intermodal.” The Journal of Commerce Intermodal Savings Index (ISI) shows why that’s the case. In March, the ISI intermodal contract rate, including fuel, was up 8 cents year over year at $1.65 per mile. At $2.34 per mile, the truckload contract rate was up 50 cents from a year ago. That all-inclusive truckload contract rate leapt 14.8% year over year, with higher fuel costs accounting for more than 1,000 basis points of the increase, according to a Journal of Commerce analysis. Sans fuel, the ISI truckload rate was up only 4.4% year over year. That’s a clear indication of how much shippers are really paying in higher fuel costs. Shifting freight to intermodal is part of an answer, but shippers need to find ways to rein in miles driven by their carriers as well, especially deadhead or empty miles. If fuel costs remain elevated for months, rather than weeks, shippers will face even more pressure to rethink transportation networks. Uber Freight says the number of shippers approaching the logistics provider for network optimization is rising fast. That’s especially true for companies that shrank their inventory in late 2025 and now face high replenishment costs. “There was a big push among many companies to reduce inventory in late 2025, with the expectation they could replenish in the first quarter,” Bob Daymon, head of client freight for Uber Freight, told the Journal of Commerce. “They’re finding costs are considerably higher than they expected,” Daymon said. Shippers have “drawn mental lines” based on how long the war in the Middle East and high fuel prices last, he said, adding: “I see the queue filling up with requests for network optimization.” Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .

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