<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The impending shakeup of the membership in three of the four alliances among global container shipping lines will be difficult for beneficial cargo owners over the next year or more, but they may benefit from the changes in the long run, a top Maersk executive said here at the JOC’s 16th annual TPM Conference.
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The impending shakeup of the membership in three of the four alliances among global container shipping lines will be difficult for beneficial cargo owners over the next year or more, but they may benefit from the changes in the long run, a top Maersk executive said here at the JOC’s 16th annual TPM Conference.

<div>LONG BEACH, California — The impending shakeup of the membership in three of the four alliances among global <a>container shipping lines</a> will be difficult for beneficial cargo owners over the next year or more, but they may benefit from the changes in the long run, a top Maersk executive said here at the JOC’s 16th annual <a>TPM Conference</a>.“The redesign of networks of the magnitude they are talking about will be disruptive for the customer in the short term because if a carrier moves from one alliance to another both alliances need to redo their networks,” said Vincent Clerc, &amp;lrm;chief trade...

LONG BEACH, California — The impending shakeup of the membership in three of the four alliances among global container shipping lines will be difficult for beneficial cargo owners over the next year or more, but they may benefit from the changes in the long run, a top Maersk executive said here at the JOC’s 16th annual TPM Conference . “The redesign of networks of the magnitude they are talking about will be disruptive for the customer in the short term because if a carrier moves from one alliance to another both alliances need to redo their networks,” said Vincent Clerc, &lrm;chief trade and marketing officer at Maersk Line. “Capacity will vary from week to week for a while and products will change and so on,” he said. “But in the long run, it all depends on the network choices that each of the alliances makes, so it could be good.” The realignment of three of the four global alliances is being touched off by the merger of the container fleets of Cosco and China Shipping and by CMA CGM’s acquisition of NOL and its container carrier APL. Cosco belongs to the CKYHE Alliance, China Shipping to the Ocean Three Alliance, and APL to the G6 Alliance. As a result, all three of these alliances will undergo some kind of reconfiguration as carriers switch in and out of them over the next year or more. “It’s a sign that the industry is under a lot of pressure to find cost savings and synergies because the rates are under pressure,” Clerc said. “In an industry where scale benefits are an important component of production costs for a lot of lines, the incentive to pursue mergers and acquisitions has increased and you are seeing this play out now.” Maersk’s 2M Alliance with Mediterranean Shipping Co, which still has another eight years to run in its 10-year agreement, would remain in place while the other alliances get sorted out. “The 2M is stable and will remain stable and will continue to work when the alliance shakeup is being discussed,” Clerc said. That would give it a leg up if the other alliances are in the middle of realignment and network redesign. Carriers in the other three alliances can move in and out of them on notice of a year or a year and a half. Because of its 2M Alliance and its strategy of only deploying capacity in line with global market demand, Maersk Line is enjoying a very high level of vessel utilization. “It’s part of our steamship strategy not to deploy tonnage in excess of what there is demand for because that capacity doesn’t get paid for and it’s not very good business,” Clerc said. Maersk Line has cut capacity on the Asia-Europe route, on the Pacific and on all global services when demand has fallen. “We don’t control demand; we don’t create demand through our prices; there is not one container more moving because rates are low or one container less because rates are high,” Clerc said. “What we do control is our supply, so we work diligently to make sure our supply is in line with demand so that we have the lowest possible cost.” Carriers have realized that the global container market will not return to the double-digit annual growth levels they enjoyed prior to the Great Recession of 2008-2009, so they have had to seek cost savings through the synergies provided by consolidation in alliances or through mergers and acquisitions. “The trend is toward more subdued growth,” Clerc said. “In this world, being able to create synergies and lower costs is actually an imperative to be successful in this industry.” Contact Peter Leach at peter.leach@ihs.com and follow him on Twitter: @petertleach .

Container lines

Alliance shakeup will produce year-long disruption, Maersk says

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">New research from software vendor Altana found that some of the declining China-US trade flows last year morphed into complex, multi-leg supply chains routed through Mexico to qualify for USMCA treatment and thus avoid billions in tariffs. </div>

New research from software vendor Altana found that some of the declining China-US trade flows last year morphed into complex, multi-leg supply chains routed through Mexico to qualify for USMCA treatment and thus avoid billions in tariffs.

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<div class="phx-topic">Increased trade volumes from China to Mexico via intermediary Asian nations last year demonstrated a new path for US-bound goods that were able to avoid steep tariffs — an estimated $40 billion — on imports from China, according to a report from global trade software vendor Altana. The company, in a report released Thursday, said that shipment-level supply chain data from its platform, plus a survey of 91 US trade professionals that include former lawmakers and customs officials, found that some of the declining trade flows from China to the US in 2025 morphed into more complex, multi-leg supply chains routed through Mexico in order to qualify under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Altana’s report contends that activity is illegal under current US customs rules — and that the US has lost approximately $40 billion in tariff revenue from goods that passed through Mexico and Canada under the USMCA treaty without going through a substantial transformation. “As US tariff laws became more robust, the flow of global trade shifted, with China-to-US trade contracting and trade that involved intermediary channels that fed into the USMCA market all growing,” Altana said. While China-US direct trade from January through October 2025 fell 28% to $276.5 billion compared with the same period in 2024, trade from Vietnam to Mexico rose 46% to $18.1 billion, according to data from UN Comtrade, which tracks annual global trade flows. The data also showed that trade rose 19% from Thailand to Mexico in the same period, and by 13% from Malaysia to Mexico. Direct Mexico to US imports, meanwhile, rose 6% to $450.5 billion. The Altana report suggests that these trade spikes used existing transshipment pathways, meaning the tariffs didn’t immediately induce “new, capital-intensive supply chain relationships,” but rather rerouted goods “being pumped through established networks of suppliers, facilities and actors.” To wit, Altana said transactions observed in its network on those “pre-existing transshipment routes that end in the USMCA bloc” rose 76% year over year through the first 10 months of 2025. “The estimated dollar value of shipments demonstrating patterns consistent with illegal transshipment rose sharply throughout 2025, accelerating at each major tariff escalation,” the report said. <h3>Scrutinizing transshipment </h3>The Trump administration, in the wake of assessing tariffs on dozens of US trading partners throughout 2025, said US Customs and Border Protection would be scrutinizing the shipment of goods that utilized intermediate countries of origin with lower duty rates to evade higher tariffs on the actual countries of origin. In January and February 2025, Altana said it identified $2.2 billion per month of what it called “suspected transshipment-linked trade entering the US.” By December, that number had reached $31.5 billion. The Trump administration’s so-called liberation day tariffs were rolled out in early April. “The trajectory is telling,” the report said. “As tariff complexity increased throughout 2025, so did the non-compliant rerouting of goods that were subject to tariffs.” Ultimately, the alleged non-compliance activity is related to what trade professionals call transformation, the idea that goods stopping in intermediary markets undergo enough of a change to impact country or origin determination, thus allowing those goods to use preferential trade agreements. The Altana report identified vehicles, machinery and electronics as the three sectors most represented in these transshipment paths. “A Chinese-origin vehicle subject to a 152% duty can be rerouted through a Mexico facility and potentially enter the United States at USMCA preferential rates, if it qualifies under rules of origin,” the report said. “At question is whether meaningful transformation occurred at the Mexican stop, and whether these known transshipment facilities will accurately record regional value content and other, upstream component-level information necessary to calculate and apply complex tariff rates and origin rules.” Contact Eric Johnson at <a href="mailto:eric.johnson@spglobal.com">eric.johnson@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Increased trade volumes from China to Mexico via intermediary Asian nations last year demonstrated a new path for US-bound goods that were able to avoid steep tariffs — an estimated $40 billion — on imports from China, according to a report from global trade software vendor Altana. The company, in a report released Thursday, said that shipment-level supply chain data from its platform, plus a survey of 91 US trade professionals that include former lawmakers and customs officials, found that some of the declining trade flows from China to the US in 2025 morphed into more complex, multi-leg supply chains routed through Mexico in order to qualify under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Altana’s report contends that activity is illegal under current US customs rules — and that the US has lost approximately $40 billion in tariff revenue from goods that passed through Mexico and Canada under the USMCA treaty without going through a substantial transformation. “As US tariff laws became more robust, the flow of global trade shifted, with China-to-US trade contracting and trade that involved intermediary channels that fed into the USMCA market all growing,” Altana said. While China-US direct trade from January through October 2025 fell 28% to $276.5 billion compared with the same period in 2024, trade from Vietnam to Mexico rose 46% to $18.1 billion, according to data from UN Comtrade, which tracks annual global trade flows. The data also showed that trade rose 19% from Thailand to Mexico in the same period, and by 13% from Malaysia to Mexico. Direct Mexico to US imports, meanwhile, rose 6% to $450.5 billion. The Altana report suggests that these trade spikes used existing transshipment pathways, meaning the tariffs didn’t immediately induce “new, capital-intensive supply chain relationships,” but rather rerouted goods “being pumped through established networks of suppliers, facilities and actors.” To wit, Altana said transactions observed in its network on those “pre-existing transshipment routes that end in the USMCA bloc” rose 76% year over year through the first 10 months of 2025. “The estimated dollar value of shipments demonstrating patterns consistent with illegal transshipment rose sharply throughout 2025, accelerating at each major tariff escalation,” the report said. Scrutinizing transshipment The Trump administration, in the wake of assessing tariffs on dozens of US trading partners throughout 2025, said US Customs and Border Protection would be scrutinizing the shipment of goods that utilized intermediate countries of origin with lower duty rates to evade higher tariffs on the actual countries of origin. In January and February 2025, Altana said it identified $2.2 billion per month of what it called “suspected transshipment-linked trade entering the US.” By December, that number had reached $31.5 billion. The Trump administration’s so-called liberation day tariffs were rolled out in early April. “The trajectory is telling,” the report said. “As tariff complexity increased throughout 2025, so did the non-compliant rerouting of goods that were subject to tariffs.” Ultimately, the alleged non-compliance activity is related to what trade professionals call transformation, the idea that goods stopping in intermediary markets undergo enough of a change to impact country or origin determination, thus allowing those goods to use preferential trade agreements. The Altana report identified vehicles, machinery and electronics as the three sectors most represented in these transshipment paths. “A Chinese-origin vehicle subject to a 152% duty can be rerouted through a Mexico facility and potentially enter the United States at USMCA preferential rates, if it qualifies under rules of origin,” the report said. “At question is whether meaningful transformation occurred at the Mexican stop, and whether these known transshipment facilities will accurately record regional value content and other, upstream component-level information necessary to calculate and apply complex tariff rates and origin rules.” Contact Eric Johnson at eric.johnson@spglobal.com .

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

Supply chain

Tariff escalation led to enforcement gaps in Mexico rerouted goods: report

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Iran conflict, which began late in the first quarter, had little impact on the forwarder’s first-quarter business, accounting for just a 1.5% decline in ocean freight volumes.</div>

The Iran conflict, which began late in the first quarter, had little impact on the forwarder’s first-quarter business, accounting for just a 1.5% decline in ocean freight volumes.

<div class="phx-topic">Kuehne + Nagel is redoubling its efforts to develop new ocean business, while also taking steps to protect its air freight operations in Asia to offset the impact of the war in the Middle East, company executives said Friday. Those steps include expanding K+N’s prepaid ocean freight logistics options in China and refueling aircraft in China to overcome potential jet fuel shortages in Southeast Asia, the forwarder’s CEO Stefan Paul said during a first-quarter results webinar. Paul said there are a lot of new China-based manufacturing and trading companies asking K+N for help in exporting products via ocean freight. The company recently increased its dedicated sales force in the Shenzhen area where a lot of those companies are located. “We are confident from what we have seen in the last couple of weeks in terms of business gains that we can offset [the Middle East disruption] with China prepaid additional volume coming in from new and existing customers...,” Paul said. On air freight, he explained that countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand don’t have buffer stocks of jet fuel beyond the end of May due to oil shortages caused by the Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz. But, “China has significantly more reserves [of jet fuel],” Paul said. Consequently, K+N’s Southeast Asia charter cargo flights are refueled in China before returning to the region, while longer-haul services are also making refueling stops in China, he added. Paul said he doesn’t see specific jet fuel shortages now, but the situation could worsen the longer Hormuz remains shut. K+N’s CEO also said the 16% to 18% drop in air freight capacity seen immediately after the Iran conflict started on Feb. 28 as flights were grounded due to airport closures and air space restrictions had eased to “single digits,” without specifying a figure. <h3>Q1 revenue, profit decline </h3>Paul was commenting after Kuehne + Nagel reported a 12% year-over-year decline in first-quarter net profit to $316 million, partly due to a 7% foreign exchange hit. Revenue also fell 12% to $7.1 billion. He said the outlook for the second quarter was “stable.” The Middle East conflict, which began late in the first quarter, had little impact on the forwarder’s first-quarter business, accounting for just a 1.5% decline in ocean freight volumes. That mostly accounted for the 2% year-over-year fall in overall volumes, to 1 million TEUs, seen in the first quarter. Revenue from sea logistics dropped 25% to $2.4 billion, while gross profit fell 22% to $572 million. The decline was mainly due to customers frontloading cargo last year ahead of the US’ broad implementation of tariffs in April 2025, Paul said. Air logistics volumes were flat at 516,000 metric tons as the forwarder was more selective in the cargo mix, targeting higher yield freight such as semiconductors, the CEO said. Revenue for the business was largely unchanged at $2 billion, while gross profit fell 7% to $518 million. K+N saw a more upbeat result from both its road and contract logistics divisions. Paul said the signs of a recovery in road logistics seen in the fourth quarter continued in the first quarter, buoyed by land bridge services in the Middle East amid the war. K+N CFO Markus Blanka-Graff said “market share gains” in the US and Europe in the last six weeks also supported the upbeat result in road logistics, with a 4% increase in revenues to $1.2 billion and a 2% gain in gross profit to $432 million. Revenue in the contract logistics division was flat at $1.5 billion, but gross profit rose 3% to $1.2 billion. Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>. </div>

Kuehne + Nagel is redoubling its efforts to develop new ocean business, while also taking steps to protect its air freight operations in Asia to offset the impact of the war in the Middle East, company executives said Friday. Those steps include expanding K+N’s prepaid ocean freight logistics options in China and refueling aircraft in China to overcome potential jet fuel shortages in Southeast Asia, the forwarder’s CEO Stefan Paul said during a first-quarter results webinar. Paul said there are a lot of new China-based manufacturing and trading companies asking K+N for help in exporting products via ocean freight. The company recently increased its dedicated sales force in the Shenzhen area where a lot of those companies are located. “We are confident from what we have seen in the last couple of weeks in terms of business gains that we can offset [the Middle East disruption] with China prepaid additional volume coming in from new and existing customers...,” Paul said. On air freight, he explained that countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand don’t have buffer stocks of jet fuel beyond the end of May due to oil shortages caused by the Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz. But, “China has significantly more reserves [of jet fuel],” Paul said. Consequently, K+N’s Southeast Asia charter cargo flights are refueled in China before returning to the region, while longer-haul services are also making refueling stops in China, he added. Paul said he doesn’t see specific jet fuel shortages now, but the situation could worsen the longer Hormuz remains shut. K+N’s CEO also said the 16% to 18% drop in air freight capacity seen immediately after the Iran conflict started on Feb. 28 as flights were grounded due to airport closures and air space restrictions had eased to “single digits,” without specifying a figure. Q1 revenue, profit decline Paul was commenting after Kuehne + Nagel reported a 12% year-over-year decline in first-quarter net profit to $316 million, partly due to a 7% foreign exchange hit. Revenue also fell 12% to $7.1 billion. He said the outlook for the second quarter was “stable.” The Middle East conflict, which began late in the first quarter, had little impact on the forwarder’s first-quarter business, accounting for just a 1.5% decline in ocean freight volumes. That mostly accounted for the 2% year-over-year fall in overall volumes, to 1 million TEUs, seen in the first quarter. Revenue from sea logistics dropped 25% to $2.4 billion, while gross profit fell 22% to $572 million. The decline was mainly due to customers frontloading cargo last year ahead of the US’ broad implementation of tariffs in April 2025, Paul said. Air logistics volumes were flat at 516,000 metric tons as the forwarder was more selective in the cargo mix, targeting higher yield freight such as semiconductors, the CEO said. Revenue for the business was largely unchanged at $2 billion, while gross profit fell 7% to $518 million. K+N saw a more upbeat result from both its road and contract logistics divisions. Paul said the signs of a recovery in road logistics seen in the fourth quarter continued in the first quarter, buoyed by land bridge services in the Middle East amid the war. K+N CFO Markus Blanka-Graff said “market share gains” in the US and Europe in the last six weeks also supported the upbeat result in road logistics, with a 4% increase in revenues to $1.2 billion and a 2% gain in gross profit to $432 million. Revenue in the contract logistics division was flat at $1.5 billion, but gross profit rose 3% to $1.2 billion. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

Maritime

Air Cargo Forwarder News

Forwarding

Asia-Europe

Air Cargo

K+N develops new ocean markets, air freight measures to offset war impact

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Port of Quebec received clearance from Canada’s customs authority to handle and inspect international containers, part of the country’s long-term pivot away from trade with the US.</div>

The Port of Quebec received clearance from Canada’s customs authority to handle and inspect international containers, part of the country’s long-term pivot away from trade with the US.

<div class="phx-topic">Canada’s customs agency has granted the Port of Quebec preliminary authority to handle international marine containers, prompting terminal operator QSL to move forward with plans to build out the port’s container handling capacity. Minister Joël Lightbound, the federal government’s chief liaison to Quebec, announced Friday that the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) designated the port along the St. Lawrence River in Quebec City as a first port of arrival for receiving international marine containers. CBSA is now working with the Quebec Port Authority and QSL on permitting and building a container inspection facility, which are requirements for the final certification as a customs exam site. QSL will also have to present the business case to CBSA for customs exams. Once the certification is final, CBSA will deploy officers and container inspection equipment. Lightbound said in a statement the CBSA certification for Quebec was part of the broader trade initiatives undertaken by Prime Minister Mark Carney as he looks to pivot the country’s trade dependence away from the US. The Canadian federal government has set aside some C$5 billion in its budget for developing port, rail and other supply-chain infrastructure. The Trump administration’s tariffs have affected more than one-third of Canada’s exports, according to consultancy BCG. The two countries are currently engaged in talks about relief on specific tariffs, ahead of what could possibly be a renegotiation of the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement later this year. “What we are announcing today is a decisive milestone that aligns with all the efforts our government is making to diversify our trade relationships, become internationally competitive, and remove barriers to Canada’s prosperity,” Lightbound said. “[The port] will become a strategic hub that will contribute even more to the economic vitality and dynamism of Quebec City, Quebec, and Canada.” The 3,700-TEU MSC Nahara called the Quebec port on Feb. 17 on a voyage from Le Havre, France — the only container ship in the past 12 months to call the port. <h3>‘Defining step’ </h3>With the CBSA certification in hand, QSL said in a separate statement Friday it will submit plans to the Quebec Port Authority for developing a 200,000-TEU terminal at its Beauport facility on the St. Lawrence. Beauport does have gantry cranes but primarily handles bulk cargo. The site also has a railhead for Canadian National Railway. The CBSA customs certification “represents a defining step in the development of the Quebec City container terminal project,” QSL said, adding that Beauport’s 49-foot depth will allow it to handle container ships on international services. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Canada’s customs agency has granted the Port of Quebec preliminary authority to handle international marine containers, prompting terminal operator QSL to move forward with plans to build out the port’s container handling capacity. Minister Joël Lightbound, the federal government’s chief liaison to Quebec, announced Friday that the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) designated the port along the St. Lawrence River in Quebec City as a first port of arrival for receiving international marine containers. CBSA is now working with the Quebec Port Authority and QSL on permitting and building a container inspection facility, which are requirements for the final certification as a customs exam site. QSL will also have to present the business case to CBSA for customs exams. Once the certification is final, CBSA will deploy officers and container inspection equipment. Lightbound said in a statement the CBSA certification for Quebec was part of the broader trade initiatives undertaken by Prime Minister Mark Carney as he looks to pivot the country’s trade dependence away from the US. The Canadian federal government has set aside some C$5 billion in its budget for developing port, rail and other supply-chain infrastructure. The Trump administration’s tariffs have affected more than one-third of Canada’s exports, according to consultancy BCG. The two countries are currently engaged in talks about relief on specific tariffs, ahead of what could possibly be a renegotiation of the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement later this year. “What we are announcing today is a decisive milestone that aligns with all the efforts our government is making to diversify our trade relationships, become internationally competitive, and remove barriers to Canada’s prosperity,” Lightbound said. “[The port] will become a strategic hub that will contribute even more to the economic vitality and dynamism of Quebec City, Quebec, and Canada.” The 3,700-TEU MSC Nahara called the Quebec port on Feb. 17 on a voyage from Le Havre, France — the only container ship in the past 12 months to call the port. ‘Defining step’ With the CBSA certification in hand, QSL said in a separate statement Friday it will submit plans to the Quebec Port Authority for developing a 200,000-TEU terminal at its Beauport facility on the St. Lawrence. Beauport does have gantry cranes but primarily handles bulk cargo. The site also has a railhead for Canadian National Railway. The CBSA customs certification “represents a defining step in the development of the Quebec City container terminal project,” QSL said, adding that Beauport’s 49-foot depth will allow it to handle container ships on international services. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Port News

Port infrastructure

North American ports

Marine terminals

Customs designation triggers QSL terminal project in Quebec City

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">A “clean-up effort” against unsafe and illegal trucking firms is cutting enough capacity to spur even bigger rate hikes, the company’s CEO says.</div>

A “clean-up effort” against unsafe and illegal trucking firms is cutting enough capacity to spur even bigger rate hikes, the company’s CEO says.

<div class="phx-topic">Shippers should expect more aggressive second-quarter rate increases from truckload providers as soaring fuel prices and a federal crackdown on illegal trucking shrink available capacity, executives at one of the largest US trucking companies say. CEO Adam Miller said Knight-Swift Transportation is planning rate increases ranging from the high single-digits to low double-digits as the company, which reported $7.5 billion in revenue in 2025, enters bid season and smaller carriers continue to exit the truckload market. Knight-Swift believes the federal government’s crackdown against illegally operating companies and non-domiciled drivers cut into capacity significantly in the first quarter and now that contraction will show up in higher rates in the second quarter. “The ongoing efforts of the [Federal Motor Carrier Administration] and the [Department of Transportation] to prevent and revoke invalidly issued CDLs [commercial driver’s licenses], shut down non-compliant CDL schools, and address our service abuses are in the early stages and are already having an impact on the market,” Miller said during Knight-Swift's earnings call this week. “This cleanup effort should, in our view, have an outsized impact on not just the one-way truckload market, but on the lowest priced capacity in this market,” he added, saying that enough capacity is being removed that “even small changes can cause disruption.” “While the pricing environment is improving, we are still seeing carrier failures, as the damage done over a prolonged downcycle is not quickly recovered, especially with the cash flow crunch brought on by the recent fuel spike,” Miller said. <h3>Signs of recovery </h3>The optimism at Knight-Swift comes as other trucking metrics show steady improvement. The American Trucking Associations’ (ATA’s) for-hire, contract freight Truck Tonnage Index increased 0.3% in March, following a 2.9% increase in February. The index is up 3% compared with the same period a year ago. “While March wasn’t particularly strong sequentially, it was the largest year-over-year increase since October 2022,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “The first quarter of 2026 was also the best performance since the third quarter of 2017 when considering both sequential and year-over-year results.” However, the most recent data from DAT Freight &amp; Analytics shows “the recent rate recovery stems from a shrinking carrier base [capacity attrition] rather than increased demand,” the company said in its April 18 weekly report. DAT spot rates are up 25% to 30% year over year. “It certainly feels like the setup is there for those in the industry to get back to rates that put our industry in a position where the good quality, compliant carriers have the ability to make enough margin to invest in their businesses, invest in drivers, invest in safety and invest in good quality equipment,” said Miller. “Our ability to get rates is driven largely by capacity reduction versus demand,” he added. “If we start to see demand pick up in conjunction with these early efforts, we could find ourselves in a much more favorable position from a carrier standpoint.” However, rate increases in the less-than-truckload (LTL) sector may be less. “Our LTL business has been growing and does not have the same cycle as truckload,” Miller said. “On LTL renewals, we are getting mid-single-digits right now.” Contact Dan Ronan at <a href="mailto:contactdanronan@gmail.com">contactdanronan@gmail.com</a>. </div>

Shippers should expect more aggressive second-quarter rate increases from truckload providers as soaring fuel prices and a federal crackdown on illegal trucking shrink available capacity, executives at one of the largest US trucking companies say. CEO Adam Miller said Knight-Swift Transportation is planning rate increases ranging from the high single-digits to low double-digits as the company, which reported $7.5 billion in revenue in 2025, enters bid season and smaller carriers continue to exit the truckload market. Knight-Swift believes the federal government’s crackdown against illegally operating companies and non-domiciled drivers cut into capacity significantly in the first quarter and now that contraction will show up in higher rates in the second quarter. “The ongoing efforts of the [Federal Motor Carrier Administration] and the [Department of Transportation] to prevent and revoke invalidly issued CDLs [commercial driver’s licenses], shut down non-compliant CDL schools, and address our service abuses are in the early stages and are already having an impact on the market,” Miller said during Knight-Swift's earnings call this week. “This cleanup effort should, in our view, have an outsized impact on not just the one-way truckload market, but on the lowest priced capacity in this market,” he added, saying that enough capacity is being removed that “even small changes can cause disruption.” “While the pricing environment is improving, we are still seeing carrier failures, as the damage done over a prolonged downcycle is not quickly recovered, especially with the cash flow crunch brought on by the recent fuel spike,” Miller said. Signs of recovery The optimism at Knight-Swift comes as other trucking metrics show steady improvement. The American Trucking Associations’ (ATA’s) for-hire, contract freight Truck Tonnage Index increased 0.3% in March, following a 2.9% increase in February. The index is up 3% compared with the same period a year ago. “While March wasn’t particularly strong sequentially, it was the largest year-over-year increase since October 2022,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “The first quarter of 2026 was also the best performance since the third quarter of 2017 when considering both sequential and year-over-year results.” However, the most recent data from DAT Freight & Analytics shows “the recent rate recovery stems from a shrinking carrier base [capacity attrition] rather than increased demand,” the company said in its April 18 weekly report. DAT spot rates are up 25% to 30% year over year. “It certainly feels like the setup is there for those in the industry to get back to rates that put our industry in a position where the good quality, compliant carriers have the ability to make enough margin to invest in their businesses, invest in drivers, invest in safety and invest in good quality equipment,” said Miller. “Our ability to get rates is driven largely by capacity reduction versus demand,” he added. “If we start to see demand pick up in conjunction with these early efforts, we could find ourselves in a much more favorable position from a carrier standpoint.” However, rate increases in the less-than-truckload (LTL) sector may be less. “Our LTL business has been growing and does not have the same cycle as truckload,” Miller said. “On LTL renewals, we are getting mid-single-digits right now.” Contact Dan Ronan at contactdanronan@gmail.com .

Trucking News

Truck brokers

Surface

US truckload rate hikes to grow more aggressive: Knight-Swift

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The current pipeline of newbuilding programs for ultra-large container vessels vastly outstrips the construction of new berths intended to receive them, meaning we are literally building a fleet for which there may soon be no room at the inn, writes Robbert van Trooijen.</div>

The current pipeline of newbuilding programs for ultra-large container vessels vastly outstrips the construction of new berths intended to receive them, meaning we are literally building a fleet for which there may soon be no room at the inn, writes Robbert van Trooijen.

<div class="phx-topic">In his recent work, Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, Edward Fishman argues that while great powers once rose by controlling geographic straits like the Bosphorus, modern power relies on different, often digital, levers. Today we are reminded that even in the Digital Age, physical chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz can still disrupt supply chains to such an extent that they threaten global recession. But as we look toward a post-2026 horizon — assuming current geopolitical fires are eventually extinguished — a more systemic bottleneck looms: the stagnation of global port infrastructure. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6209409_0.1.jpg"></img></div>The math of global trade is currently heading toward a collision course. Available ocean terminal capacity at major gateways and hubs is reaching a saturation point. While the industry has leaned heavily on efficiency gains and automation to squeeze more “moves per hour” out of existing footprints, there is a lack of new physical capacity being added to the global map. We see a flurry of merger and acquisition activity — such as the planned sale of assets such as Hutchison Port Holdings — but shifting ownership of an existing facility in itself does nothing to accommodate the actual growth of global trade. The strongest evidence of this disconnect lies in the shipyards. The current pipeline of newbuilding programs for ultra-large container vessels vastly outstrips the construction of new berths intended to receive them. We are, quite literally, building a fleet for which there may soon be no room at the inn. <h3>Protecting margins — at the expense of cargo flow </h3>The hesitation to build is certainly not due to a lack of profitability. The investment case for terminal infrastructure is, in fact, staggering. APM Terminals, a subsidiary of Danish conglomerate A.P. Moller Maersk, reported a return on invested capital (ROIC) of no less than 16.1% in the 2025 fourth quarter, a figure that outperforms almost every other sub-sector in the maritime industry. So, why the inertia? There is no simple answer, but part of the answer lies in a classic “incumbent’s dilemma.” While new capacity would benefit the global economy by increasing competitiveness, it would also — at least temporarily — dilute the high returns currently enjoyed by existing operators. In some markets, bottlenecks are not just a nuisance; they are lucrative. This creates a perverse incentive for incumbents to lobby against greenfield projects, effectively protecting their margins at the expense of trade fluidity. The investment gap is most visible in the Southern Hemisphere. As industry analyst Lars Jensen highlighted at TPM26 in Long Beach in early March, demographic shifts identify Latin America and Africa as the next great trade frontiers. Yet, these are the very regions where the pushback against “carrier-owned” terminals is loudest. Local players often lobby against the participation of ocean carriers, arguing that vertical integration is anti-competitive. This is an understandable yet somewhat protectionist stance. It is the ocean carriers who possess the most direct incentive to drive capacity growth — they are the ones who need the berths to keep their growing fleet of vessels moving. The “dominance” argument falls flat when compared with the alternative: a stagnant, expensive status quo maintained by local (family-owned) oligopolies. <h3>The need to act now </h3>Any legitimate anti-competitive concerns can be easily mitigated through clear, enforceable neutrality clauses within concession agreements. These clauses ensure that while a carrier may own the terminal, it remains an open-access utility for the broader market. The construction of a greenfield site takes three to five years. If we do not break ground today, the “landside chokepoint” of 2028 and beyond could very well make today’s Red Sea/Strait of Hormuz disruptions look like a minor logistical hiccup. To secure the future of global trade, we must look past the protectionist rhetoric of local incumbents and embrace the capital and operational drive of carrier-terminal combinations. The returns are there and the demand is there. But the berths are not. It is time for a virtuous cycle to take over the industry. Robbert van Trooijen, founder and president of Inception Partners and a McKinsey consultant, had a 33-year tenure with The Nedlloyd Group, P&amp;O Nedlloyd and the Maersk Group. Contact him at <a href="mailto:robbert@inceptionpartners.org">robbert@inceptionpartners.org</a>. </div>

In his recent work, Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, Edward Fishman argues that while great powers once rose by controlling geographic straits like the Bosphorus, modern power relies on different, often digital, levers. Today we are reminded that even in the Digital Age, physical chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz can still disrupt supply chains to such an extent that they threaten global recession. But as we look toward a post-2026 horizon — assuming current geopolitical fires are eventually extinguished — a more systemic bottleneck looms: the stagnation of global port infrastructure. The math of global trade is currently heading toward a collision course. Available ocean terminal capacity at major gateways and hubs is reaching a saturation point. While the industry has leaned heavily on efficiency gains and automation to squeeze more “moves per hour” out of existing footprints, there is a lack of new physical capacity being added to the global map. We see a flurry of merger and acquisition activity — such as the planned sale of assets such as Hutchison Port Holdings — but shifting ownership of an existing facility in itself does nothing to accommodate the actual growth of global trade. The strongest evidence of this disconnect lies in the shipyards. The current pipeline of newbuilding programs for ultra-large container vessels vastly outstrips the construction of new berths intended to receive them. We are, quite literally, building a fleet for which there may soon be no room at the inn. Protecting margins — at the expense of cargo flow The hesitation to build is certainly not due to a lack of profitability. The investment case for terminal infrastructure is, in fact, staggering. APM Terminals, a subsidiary of Danish conglomerate A.P. Moller Maersk, reported a return on invested capital (ROIC) of no less than 16.1% in the 2025 fourth quarter, a figure that outperforms almost every other sub-sector in the maritime industry. So, why the inertia? There is no simple answer, but part of the answer lies in a classic “incumbent’s dilemma.” While new capacity would benefit the global economy by increasing competitiveness, it would also — at least temporarily — dilute the high returns currently enjoyed by existing operators. In some markets, bottlenecks are not just a nuisance; they are lucrative. This creates a perverse incentive for incumbents to lobby against greenfield projects, effectively protecting their margins at the expense of trade fluidity. The investment gap is most visible in the Southern Hemisphere. As industry analyst Lars Jensen highlighted at TPM26 in Long Beach in early March, demographic shifts identify Latin America and Africa as the next great trade frontiers. Yet, these are the very regions where the pushback against “carrier-owned” terminals is loudest. Local players often lobby against the participation of ocean carriers, arguing that vertical integration is anti-competitive. This is an understandable yet somewhat protectionist stance. It is the ocean carriers who possess the most direct incentive to drive capacity growth — they are the ones who need the berths to keep their growing fleet of vessels moving. The “dominance” argument falls flat when compared with the alternative: a stagnant, expensive status quo maintained by local (family-owned) oligopolies. The need to act now Any legitimate anti-competitive concerns can be easily mitigated through clear, enforceable neutrality clauses within concession agreements. These clauses ensure that while a carrier may own the terminal, it remains an open-access utility for the broader market. The construction of a greenfield site takes three to five years. If we do not break ground today, the “landside chokepoint” of 2028 and beyond could very well make today’s Red Sea/Strait of Hormuz disruptions look like a minor logistical hiccup. To secure the future of global trade, we must look past the protectionist rhetoric of local incumbents and embrace the capital and operational drive of carrier-terminal combinations. The returns are there and the demand is there. But the berths are not. It is time for a virtuous cycle to take over the industry. Robbert van Trooijen, founder and president of Inception Partners and a McKinsey consultant, had a 33-year tenure with The Nedlloyd Group, P&O Nedlloyd and the Maersk Group. Contact him at robbert@inceptionpartners.org .

Landside infrastructure is container shipping’s next great chokepoint

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